00:00:06.000It really did a diagnostic look at the 2020 race.
00:00:11.000And I know that, like you, I'm skeptical of all exit polls, but I think there's a lot of information here that could be very useful.
00:00:17.000I dive into that and what it means for our country, politics, and the future of the Republican Party.
00:00:22.000If you want to support this program, go to charliekirk.com/slash support.
00:00:26.000We have a team of researchers, editors, people that work all day and all night to make sure this program can be delivered to you every day on the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
00:00:37.000So support us at charliekirk.com slash support if you can.
00:01:16.000His spirit, his love of this country, he's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created, Turning Point USA.
00:01:24.000We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.
00:02:42.000And I think this is also in conjunction with McLaughlin, who does all the president's polling.
00:02:48.000And so before I get into this, this talks about the 2020 election.
00:02:54.000This does not factor in any of the shenanigans or the nonsense that we've been covering on this program.
00:03:01.000It doesn't factor in the signature verification issues, voter registration issues, all of that.
00:03:07.000And so I'm not going to talk about that, but a really good point that one of our team members made is: if you do not have your fundamentals down, if you are not exceeding in certain categories, then it opens the door on the margins for this other stuff to happen.
00:03:22.000So I just want to say from the outset, I'm not invalidating that conversation.
00:03:26.000I'm not dismissing those concerns, but there's a lot here in this report by the president's own pollster, President Trump's own pollster, that I think is very instructive that we can learn from.
00:03:38.000So first, let's just talk about the size of this.
00:03:41.000This was an exit poll that was done, but with 35,000 participants in the key battleground states.
00:03:54.000They really wanted to find the data and correlate it.
00:03:58.000And to be honest, some of the findings correlate with some of the results that we saw in the election, plus or minus with some of the other things on the margins that probably tipped what would have been a close race into Biden's category.
00:04:15.000What I found to be most interesting, though, is that if you just go county by county, especially in states like Florida and Texas, this exit polling data is probably correct.
00:04:29.000By Fabrizio Lee, they did this poll in these states.
00:04:38.000And so, for example, Trump did better in the Rio Grande Valley with Hispanic voters and better in Miami-Dade County with Cuban voters than any other Republican in the last 20 or 30 years.
00:05:21.000That is consistent from exit polling to actual data.
00:05:24.000So that goes to show that maybe they're onto something here.
00:05:27.000The most instructive number, though, and I believe this because our team was warning about this and we were told that, I don't know if there's any data behind that.
00:05:37.000And the results showed it, is that there was a double-digit erosion with white men.
00:05:45.000According to this exit poll, and there's a margin here, Donald Trump did 12 points worse with white men in 2020 than he did in 2016.
00:05:56.000That might be half right, but it's generally correct.
00:06:00.000I can say this from anecdotal and data inference.
00:06:03.000And in some states, like in Florida, let's take Pinellas County, for example, which is typically, it's a Republican-ish county.
00:06:26.000The positives is that Donald Trump has changed the Republican Party to embrace Hispanic voters in a way that the pro-Amnesty open border Chamber of Commerce group never could have imagined.
00:06:39.000Donald Trump did 10 points better with Hispanic voters.
00:06:44.000That's reason to take a pause and say, wait a second, Donald Trump, who argued for restricting immigration, for building a border wall, did better with the community that we're told that we have to go offer amnesty and then they'll go vote for you.
00:07:02.000However, according to this data, the Hispanic improvement was not enough to cancel out losses among white voters.
00:07:14.000If Donald Trump would have just done a little bit better with white voters, maybe the nonsense would not have been enough in some of these states.
00:07:24.000But that's the first takeaway that I think is very, very interesting.
00:07:27.000The second takeaway is when you go by age and education.
00:07:32.000According to this exit poll and according to this data by Trump's own pollster, Donald Trump did six points worse with people that were white and did not have a college educated degree.
00:07:50.000He did one point better with people between the ages of 30 to 44.
00:07:55.000I think the riots and the unrest probably had something to do with that and also the nonsense happening in education.
00:08:02.000But Donald Trump's most significant vote erosion was with senior voters.
00:08:10.000According to this data, take it for whatever it's worth, it shows that Trump did eight points better, eight points worse, I'm sorry, with seniors.
00:08:20.000That is consistent with some of the other polling that we've seen, that the number one issue for all voters, the number one issue was the Chinese coronavirus.
00:08:38.000Coronavirus, 42% of voters in states that Donald Trump did not win or Joe Biden was certified as the winner for said that the coronavirus was the number one priority.
00:08:52.000Now, there's actually a lot of good news in this, in the polling here.
00:08:57.000It actually goes to show how insignificant the AOC agenda is to regular voters in these states, how unpopular it is.
00:09:07.000It says here that climate change was the most important issue for only 3% of voters.
00:09:38.000Which voters do you think cared most about the Chinese coronavirus?
00:09:44.000Of course, it's the voters that, according to this own data, defected from Donald Trump.
00:09:52.000White college-educated voters that were 65 and older were Trump did eight points worse with.
00:10:02.000Interestingly enough, in the states that Trump held, he actually did worse with white college-educated voters than he did in the states he flipped.
00:10:13.000But in the states he held, he was able to make up for it based on this data, or at least within the margin of error, with Hispanic voters.
00:10:22.000There's a lot to unpack here because I think there's so much to learn from the MAGA movement and the direction that the Republican Party needs to go and how it applies to current legislative fights right now.
00:10:38.000I'm very excited to talk to you about a new book that's coming out this month from my dear friend Jim Holden, best-selling author, board member of the Turning Point Endowment, and just a great guy.
00:10:48.000Selling in an Anxious World is Jim's fifth book on selling strategies and best practices.
00:10:53.000This time, Jim brings together research, science, observation to identifying the leading cause of declining B2B sales, also known as corporate culture.
00:11:02.000I had the great honor of contributing an entire chapter in Selling in an Anxious World through my work with Turning Point.
00:11:08.000I'm in a unique position to observe academic culture within our colleges and relate it to the corporate world, in particular its impact on company culture.
00:11:16.000In today's world, good company culture requires vigilant protection, which is why this book is so timely and a must-read for business people, sellers, patriots, and Christians.
00:11:27.000Selling in an Anxious World combines research from extensive deal reviews, examples from Jim's personal life, and Bible references to shine a light on culture presenting an unconventional guide to solving an unconventional problem.
00:11:39.000You'll get quick access to whatever topics are important to you through chapter summaries and reference guides.
00:11:44.000Jim Holden's book is not like any other business book.
00:12:30.000What did we do wrong with how we were actually messaging our ideas and communicating them?
00:12:35.000And so I want to get to one of the, and this is super interesting.
00:12:40.000So according to the exit polling data, and this would lend itself to an argument of the kind of say we need to look more into the shenanigans and the nonsense and the tomfoolery of who won the voters that did not vote in 2016.
00:13:02.000According to the according to President Trump's pollster, it shows that Joe Biden won them by 14 points in the states he flipped, where he only won them by eight points in the states he held.
00:13:15.000And so take that for whatever it's worth, but there was a group of people that came out to vote simply and solely to oppose Donald Trump.
00:13:26.000However, there were mail-in ballots being sent all over the place.
00:13:30.000Voter turnout was sent to proportions we've never seen before.
00:13:37.000Therefore, it quickly became a first-time voter Trump referendum, which is exactly what the Democrats wanted to do.
00:13:47.000Another very interesting piece of data was the impact of late deciders.
00:13:51.000We have said on this program that President Trump did not have his best debate performance on the first debate.
00:13:56.000The second one, I think he won hands down.
00:13:59.000However, in the new era of vote by mail and mail-in voting, there were over 50 million people that had voted before the second debate.
00:14:08.000And a lot of people looked at the first debate and were trying to give Trump a chance.
00:14:13.000Well, it shows here that in the last month, in the states that Joe Biden flipped, according to President Trump's pollster, it shows that Joe Biden won late deciders by five points in the states that Donald Trump won by three points.
00:14:31.000And it says that President Trump needed late deciders to break in his direction in the states that were flipped, but that did not materialize.
00:14:38.000So you add some of this up, all of a sudden, when you don't have strong signature verification, you don't have voter registration check records, all of a sudden, what otherwise would have been a six or seven point race became a 10 or 12,000 point race, and all of that stuff comes into one.
00:14:55.000Where if you're not blowing the opposition out by five, six, seven hundred thousand votes, and you're within these margins, and you don't do good enough on focusing on some of these issues and all that.
00:15:07.000And that's to say it's not President Trump's fault.
00:15:10.000I think that there were some people around him that were giving bad advice.
00:15:13.000I also think that according to this data, if I can find it here, there's 20 pages here by Fabrizio Lee.
00:15:20.000It shows that the entire election should have been run on a referendum of Kamala Harris.
00:15:26.000Now, I will say, our podcast was one of the few podcasts that was publicly urging and insisting on running an entire election against Kamala Harris.
00:15:36.000The data shows that if it would have been a referendum on Kamala and not on Joe Biden, this election very well might have been different.
00:15:45.000Again, this is a 35,000-person sample, according from Fabrizio Lee.
00:15:52.000It shows that Kamala Harris had a net unfavorable rating in every single state that Joe Biden won that was a battleground state.
00:16:03.000That Kamala Harris was 10 points unpopular versus Donald Trump.
00:16:10.000Out of the four people running for office, Joe Biden, Mike Pence, Donald Trump, and Kamala Harris, the most unpopular person was Kamala Harris.
00:16:19.000I didn't see one advertisement directed towards Kamala Harris.
00:16:24.000I didn't see one rally that was all about the incoming Harris administration.
00:16:30.000This is something that we talked about because we actually talk to real voters and real people.
00:16:33.000We don't just sit behind a computer screen all day.
00:16:37.000And that goes to show that in some of these states, people went into the ballot box and voted for Kamala Harris while not liking Kamala Harris.
00:16:46.000That is a failure of a communication strategy and a campaign that did not frame it properly.
00:16:52.000So what does this mean for the future of the Republican Party?
00:16:55.000What does this mean for the fights that we have right now, such as amnesty and all of these ideas that are being presented?
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00:17:56.000It's no wonder nearly 1 million small businesses have already used stamps.com.
00:18:04.000And again, with my promo code, Kirk, K-I-R-K, you get a special offer that includes a four-week trial plus free postage and a digital scale.
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00:19:12.000Well, if you believe Florida, then you believe this, because I've been talking about Florida data here.
00:19:16.000A lot of this is about data of states that Trump won and he still did worse with certain groups.
00:19:21.000And yes, some of this data is really sobering.
00:19:24.000Some of this data is not might not what you want to hear.
00:19:28.000And I'm not delegitimizing the conversations that we on this program have had about voter integrity for the last four months.
00:19:36.000However, if we act as if we were perfect in our persuasion with every single group, with every single part of the population, we're fooling ourselves.
00:20:27.000But Senator Lindsey Graham is very hawkish.
00:20:30.000He always wants to use a military force to try to effectuate neoconservative nationbuilding.
00:20:38.000Anyway, one of the big takeaways, though, is President Trump had the strictest immigration policies of a president, of any person running for office, probably since, boy, geez, probably since Eisenhower, right?
00:20:57.000Even Reagan didn't run on strict immigration.
00:21:01.000Then he signed it into law, mass amnesty.
00:21:04.000And Reagan even called it the worst mistake he made of his presidency.
00:21:08.000So President Trump had the strictest immigration policies of any president, not just candidate, of restricting entry into the United States to protect the American worker, uphold legal entry into the United States, if and when it benefits our fellow countrymen, the most so since probably Eisenhower or even before that.
00:21:32.000We'll have to probably go backwards and try to go back in time and see who had the strictest immigration policies.
00:22:25.000That if you want to come here with skills and with capital and to benefit our country, then there's a process to do that.
00:22:31.000However, we are not going to keep our current immigration policy of unlimited refugee resettlement, open borders on the southern border to allow illegal entry into America.
00:22:42.000And with the amazing takeaway, though, and again, if you just want to ignore all this data, that's fine.
00:22:48.000I won't, because I think the data is super instructive from Trump's own pollster.
00:22:52.000Trump's own pollster is that when you're actually stricter on immigration, you win the communities that other people say you're not going to win.
00:23:01.000One of the big surprises, though, here that I will say, and it is an improvement.
00:23:08.000And I will say this: that if I'm the Democrats, this is actually rather deflating.
00:23:13.000If I can find this page here from Trump's pollster, again, it's like a 55-page report.
00:23:21.000That despite four years of Trump being called a racist, despite four years of BLM Incorporated and every single possible accusation from Amarosa to others, Donald Trump, according to these exit polls, did one point better with black voters.
00:23:47.000It might not sound like much, but if Republicans, and by the way, it's one point better, but on a percentage basis, it's actually really good.
00:23:59.000If you are increasing your level support in black and Hispanic communities in any way, shape, or form as a Republican, that is worthy of praise.
00:24:13.000In fact, it shows that Trump did better with black voters than George W. Bush, than H.W. Bush, and he did better with black and Hispanic voters, more so than any Republican running for president since 1960.
00:26:08.000The Danish study says there is no correlation at all whatsoever.
00:26:11.000And Heather McDonald says in the City Journal, there's no correlation between the two.
00:26:15.000However, the data here, according to Trump's own pollster, which again, it just kind of stuns me, shows that 75% of voters in both states that Trump won opposed a public mask mandate.
00:26:41.000And that 58% of the people that favored a mask mandate voted for Joe Biden because of the mask mandate.
00:26:50.000What this shows in the states that even Trump won is that the issue of masks became a wedge issue.
00:27:00.000I'm going to tell you guys when I predict things correctly, like the Kamala Harris thing, I'm going to tell you when I'm just stunned.
00:27:25.000You could buy a firearm rather easily.
00:27:27.000So you can buy a firearm rather easily only if you wear a mask.
00:27:32.000So it just for me, just the inherent kind of contradictions here of we're cool with Second Amendment, but we're not so I thought that there would be a little bit more of a, we might want you to wear a mask at certain places, but we're not going to mandate it from the federal government.
00:27:48.000That ends, according to Trump's own pollster, that ended up being a significant wedge issue in these states.
00:27:57.000The other thing, according to Trump's pollster, in the states Trump won, okay, in the states Trump's Trump won, shows that 81%, 81% of voters in the states that Trump won, Texas, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, 81% believed that the virus was, quote, not at all under control.
00:29:26.000The Chinese coronavirus was the top issue in both state groups.
00:29:34.000And President Trump's job approval was very mixed.
00:29:37.000It was mixed where a lot of people thought he was doing good on the economy and foreign policy, but not very good on the Chinese coronavirus.
00:29:44.000Why President Trump did not do a peace tour in every state, bragging about how he started no new wars and negotiated peace?
00:29:51.000Do you know that in the two debates that President Trump had and the one debate that Vice President Pence had, they did not mention once that peace was negotiated between Israel, UAE, Buran, Bahrain, Sudan, and the Middle East?
00:30:19.000But to summarize all of this, and we'll get into this in another segment, is that when you oppose amnesty and you have strict immigration, you win Hispanics and blacks.
00:30:54.000We're only talking about states that I don't think anyone listening to this would find objections with.
00:30:59.000We're not talking about Arizona or Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
00:31:03.000We're talking about Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio.
00:31:07.000And just interestingly, how President Trump did so much better with Hispanics and blacks and a little bit worse with white blue-collar voters.
00:31:18.000And part of it, and I want to make this very clear: part of it is I think a campaign strategy could have been different, a communication strategy could have been different.
00:31:25.000But also, we were up against massive social media fraud.
00:31:28.000We were up against social media tech censorship.
00:31:32.000We are up against the inability to talk about Hunter Biden and his laptop.
00:31:38.000We were up against a social media cartel that said, if you talk about this, you're going to lose your accounts.
00:31:46.000We were up against an activist media that conveniently, every single day, talked about how Donald Trump was responsible for the Chinese coronavirus deaths.
00:32:18.000We as conservatives are not quick to all of a sudden say, well, now he's to blame for all of it.
00:32:22.000Instead, we can blame him for probing and proposing and eventually backpedaling on wanting to vaccinate terrorists ahead of American citizens.
00:32:37.000That would be something worthy of attacking or criticizing, I should say.
00:32:42.000And so we were up against massive headwinds in the 2020 election, where Joe Biden received almost zero negative press coverage, where there was a multi-institutional agreement between all places of power that were supposed to be objective, that they were going to put their objectivity aside temporarily and suspend it to go get a win for the decent guys because we have to unify the country,
00:33:10.000which is their belief is we have to have the absence of opposition.
00:33:15.000So every sort of societal referee that we were supposed to have, that was supposed to call balls and strikes, or umpire a societal umpire, they took a break, every single one of them.
00:33:30.000From how we conducted elections to social media, to the activist media, to journalists, to academia, to the fact checkers, to the means of communication, all of them, because of their misimpression and misinterpretation of Donald Trump and the threat that he posed to their own power, they decided we are not going to be umpires anymore.
00:33:52.000We are going to put on a jersey and we're going to play for the other team.
00:33:55.000Now, the significance of that is we were playing from an altered and edited terrain during the entire campaign.
00:34:13.000President Trump's supporters are assaulted outside of the White House by BLM, Incorporated in Antifa after the Republican National Convention.
00:34:34.000So we were dealing with a different paradigm where all the other conventional rules of even running a campaign in 2016 were temporarily suspended.
00:34:44.000However, I'm afraid that temporary suspension might be permanent.
00:34:49.000I'm afraid that we are never going to get back to the time where the umpires are going to get back to calling balls and strikes, where the next time we run an election, all of a sudden the fact checkers are still going to be in the pathological left-wing category, that the institution of influence will still be in the pathological left-wing category.
00:35:07.000And so now we have to look at all this data and all this misinterpretation of reality and adjust, change the way we do elections.
00:35:15.000You have to put pressure on Georgia and Arizona today to change the way we do elections.
00:35:21.000Voter ID, vote verification, paper ballots, reduce mail and ballots wherever we can, strict signature verification standards, do what we did in Florida all across the country.
00:35:31.000And secondly, we have to learn from this, at least from a public policy perspective, and say we are not going to embrace amnesty that will make us lose votes with the Hispanic community.
00:35:42.000That was the Simpson-Mazzoli Act that Ronald Reagan signed in the 1980s.