Jack Posobiec is the host of Human Events Daily on Real America's Voice. Jack is also the founder of Turning Point USA, a pro-choice, pro-Second Amendment organization. He is a former Navy intelligence officer who served with the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JDO) and served as the Director of Intelligence and Strategy for the Department of Defense. Jack has been a regular contributor to the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Los Angeles Times.
00:00:28.000We break down the situation, what we know currently.
00:00:31.000And we have Chip Roy in to respond to the riots in Los Angeles, what that could mean for Texas.
00:00:36.000Why are Democrats always on the losing side of 60, 40, 70, 30, 80, 20 issues?
00:00:41.000And we talk about the prospects of the big, beautiful bill.
00:00:44.000And then I give you my summation, my take on the Iranian conflict.
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00:03:53.000We were getting reports that embassy staff, non-essential personnel out of Bahrain, Baghdad, Kuwait were getting moved out, evacuated essentially out of the region.
00:04:05.000Drums of War certainly seem to be beating Jack Posobiec.
00:04:09.000What is the latest out of the Middle East?
00:04:11.000Look, you know, as a prior Navy intelligence officer, when things like this go down, it's obviously something that my hearts and prayers always go out to any of the U.S. service members, and in many cases their families, and also that includes contractors and their families.
00:04:27.000People think that, you know, at these bases that they'll say, okay, and President Trump graciously retweeted me yesterday when I said we have more troops in L.A. than we do in Iraq and Syria right now, which is actually true if you count number by number.
00:04:41.000But in the U.S., Military presence that we currently have in the Middle East writ large, that it's actually quite stronger than that.
00:04:50.000So we have troops in Kuwait, we have troops in Bahrain, we have troops in Qatar, the UAE, we have troops in Jordan, we have troops in Saudi.
00:04:57.000We do obviously have troops in Iraq and Syria still, though not as many as during the active combat operations.
00:05:04.000Turkey, Djibouti, and all across our naval task forces, including the USS Harry Truman, the USS Carl Vinson, both aircraft carriers.
00:05:13.000Then you've also got those at least six B-2 strategic bombers down at Diego Garcia Air Base.
00:05:20.000Now, that's in the Indian Ocean, but because of their long-range capabilities, they have the ability to strike Iran.
00:05:26.000They have ability to strike deep into CENTCOM.
00:05:29.000They're supporting, could support CENTCOM operations.
00:05:31.000That's why a lot of people think that those long-range bombers were placed there.
00:05:35.000So what we're seeing is this drumbeat of...
00:05:42.000NBC reporting that Israel is planning to take strikes on Iran with potentially the backing of the United States and the U.S. doesn't directly take part in them.
00:05:55.000though of course the question is if iran were to retaliate there is all these targets and all of this u.s equipment personnel in the region the other side is And Steve Witkoff currently is also set to continue his meetings with the Iranians later this weekend.
00:06:13.000And Oman has confirmed that the next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks will take place, looks like this Sunday.
00:06:22.000So either a strike is imminent from Israel.
00:06:25.000Israel is signaling to the United States and to the world that it wants to move forward.
00:06:31.000President Trump, to his credit on this, has rebuffed Israel.
00:06:35.000Actually, he did it in April, once again in May.
00:06:39.000What is the urgency here, though, Jack?
00:06:41.000I mean, there's reports that Iran may already have enough nuclear fuel material to create 10. Those are the reports that we're hearing.
00:06:56.000Is there any other indication that we know what's forcing this urgency from Israel?
00:07:02.000Well, those reports have been coming out for quite some time, but the IC assessment has still and does remain that the program for enriching that nuclear capacity towards weaponized uranium and weaponized nuclear material has been ceased.
00:07:19.000And that has been the IC assessment for years at this point.
00:07:22.000And obviously, this being the real question of the debates and these discussions in the negotiations themselves, the diplomacy is all about this.
00:07:31.000In fact, the Guardian had a piece a couple of weeks ago that there was an idea floated by, and it wasn't clear if the US floated it or Iran floated it directly, that perhaps, as we know, there are Negotiations concurrently happening with Russia vis-a-vis Ukraine.
00:07:47.000So the question is that if it were the Russians, who, of course, as people know the history, were the ones who came in and finished the building of that Bushir nuclear power plant in Iran, that perhaps the Russians could be the ones to come in and become the guarantors.
00:08:04.000That this enrichment, which is something that Obama never got, Obama never had any of this, and his was certainly not a permanent agreement at all, that perhaps it was something that the U.S. and Russia could work on together to triangulate on Iran, because, of course, they would not have a nuclear program were it not for the Russians.
00:08:21.000You tie that piece to the Ukrainian negotiations at the same time, and this presents Trump and Witkoff perhaps with a grand strategy that they're working on.
00:08:33.000And so this pressure that's being put on this essentially is because Iran has been degraded.
00:08:41.000They lost a key ally, of course, in Assad.
00:08:44.000The Shia militia groups have really been drawn down there.
00:08:47.000And so the idea is that because they are in a degraded state, because their losses, Hamas, Hezbollah, et cetera, losses that have gone on over the past year, that perhaps they wouldn't be able to strike back with the force that they normally would be able to bring to bear, say, 12 months ago.
00:09:02.000Yeah, I mean, Hezbollah and Hamas obviously have been massively degraded, and that was oftentimes the levers that the Iranians would pull to exert casualties, damages against Israel.
00:09:17.000I want to play this clip from President Trump.
00:09:19.000He went on with Miranda Devine, and he's definitely signaling more negativity as opposed to positivity.
00:09:27.000Now, again, he rebuffed Benjamin Netanyahu's request for assistance in April and May because negotiations were ongoing.
00:09:36.000He felt that there was positive momentum.
00:10:49.000They believe, Israel believes, according to reports, that there is a limited window where Iran is still vulnerable and these nuclear...
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00:12:06.000Do you believe that the U.S. is going to be involved in these?
00:12:12.000Airstrikes, is there an option where Israel goes it alone?
00:12:15.000And secondly, and it's a bigger conversation, but is MAGA behind this?
00:12:21.000Is Trump's base of support going to be behind something as kinetic as an active military operation against Iran?
00:12:30.000Well, Andrew, essentially what you're talking about here is a proxy war, and this would be viewed in the Middle East largely as a proxy war, the same way that Ukraine is currently viewed as a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia.
00:12:43.000This is why negotiations directly between Ukraine and Russia have stalled out, because everyone knows that it's really the U.S. that's been supporting Ukraine all this time, and that's why it's not going to end until we've seen the negotiations stall.
00:12:58.000We try to go to Zelensky, Zelensky tries to go to Russia.
00:13:08.000It was not started by President Trump, but it certainly is a proxy war nonetheless.
00:13:11.000This would also, I believe, be viewed in the same lens as a proxy war with Israel acting as that proxy and then creating a situation where the U.S. would be blamed.
00:13:23.000The only difference being, of course, that the U.S. has so many forces that are directly, as I just outlined, Now, you've also got the massive other corollary of the price of oil.
00:13:47.000The opening days of the Ukraine-Russia war, well, and the U.S. at that time barely bought any oil from Russia, certainly still doesn't.
00:13:56.000Right now, J.P. Morgan is projecting that the price of oil would double, of a barrel of oil would double if an Iraq war, or excuse me, an Iran war would break out, potential Strait of Hormuz closure, where 20% of the world's oil flows through the Persian Gulf.
00:14:13.000So this is something where, look, when it comes to MAGA, I think that even if we weren't necessarily the ones who were conducting the strikes, I think that the United States would still kind of be on the hook for the bill.
00:14:24.000And that's where MAGA would come in because when people voted in 2024, one of the biggest rallying cries of 2024 was no new wars.
00:14:34.000There would be no new wars, no World War III, that we would not be pushing for these conflicts, that we would be stepping back from this and pushing negotiations.
00:14:55.000I think you put it really well that MAGA is going to see this as America getting foot with the bill, even if we're not the ones pushing for it, even if Trump has been rebuffing Bibi Netanyahu's push to strike Iran.
00:15:08.000Now, this was breaking from Axios in the last 20 minutes here, Jack.
00:15:11.000White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately warned top Senate Republicans last week that Iran could unleash a mass casualty response if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities.
00:15:22.000Apparently, Iran has shot missiles at Israel in the relatively recent past.
00:15:36.000And Steve Whitcoff said in a speech on Wednesday in New York, it's as big of an existential threat for Israel as Iran's nuclear capabilities.
00:15:48.000Iran has a serious military, has the ability to threaten Israel, has the ability to respond.
00:15:55.000And certainly, if you are supportive of Israel, if you're supportive of peace, and I think nobody wants Iran to have this nuclear weapon.
00:16:03.000And that's why I back the agenda that President Trump stood for when he was on all of those rallies in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan saying no new wars.
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00:17:53.000He said, well, I don't want to say it was imminent, but it's certainly a possibility.
00:17:58.000Chip Roy, just your initial response to what's happening in the Middle East and what should President Trump supporters, conservatives, what should we make of it?
00:18:08.000Well, first of all, the president is exactly right in what he just said, and I certainly personally believe we cannot allow Iran to get nuclear capability.
00:18:15.000I fundamentally disagree with some of the people here in this country who I think, I don't know whether you want to call them isolationists or what, I don't believe in all of those labels.
00:18:24.000What I know is we need to defend our interests, and our interests are certainly very much intertwined with the idea that Iran should not have nuclear capability.
00:18:33.000It would be massively destructive to peace and stability, not just to the Middle East, but to the entire world, including our own safety and security here in this country.
00:19:49.000Israel has their right to do what they think is correct.
00:19:52.000We need to defend our interests, and we will continue to engage.
00:19:56.000And I think the president is correct to do so.
00:19:59.000Yeah, and apparently one of the big roadblocks, Congressman, is Iran's saber-rattling.
00:20:06.000They're saying, in that case, America will have to leave the region because all of its bases are within our reach.
00:20:11.000We have access to them, and without hesitation, we will target all of them in the host countries, the minister told Iranian press.
00:20:19.000So, I mean, they're, they were actively saber rattling that being said, Steve Woodcoff is still planning to be in Oman on Sunday to continue to be the sixth round of peace talks with representatives from Iran.
00:20:33.000You know, the issue here is that even if Israel goes it alone— I mean, we're going to be embroiled in this conflict.
00:20:45.000I heard Trump this morning from the White House.
00:20:49.000There's some predictions that oil prices could double because so much of the world's oil is going through that region.
00:20:55.000You know, is there support within Capitol Hill, Congressman, for – Or is it, I mean, Trump seems to be sounding the no nuclear fuel, no capacity at all.
00:21:30.000Who has tried to seek peace in every path, whether you're dealing with Ukraine and Russia, whether, as he pointed out, you're dealing with India and Pakistan, now here with Israel and Iran.
00:21:42.000And again, I would argue, and I mean it respectfully and frankly giving in praise, he has been trying maybe to a fault to give exit ramps to Iran.
00:21:50.000But at the end of the day, a nuclearized Iran, And not just vicariously because they're putting Israel at peril.
00:22:16.000Now you get a lot of Iranian Americans who, you know, they're just dying for Iran to be, you know, brought back again and out of this crazy leadership.
00:22:22.000But they do have crazy leadership and they do have people there in charge of hating our country and want to do us harm.
00:23:47.000We're a law and order state and we shouldn't tolerate it.
00:23:49.000We acted swiftly at universities when they were destabilizing all that stuff with respect to Palestine, endangering our Jewish students and others.
00:24:03.000You can't allow this to happen in a country that depends on the rule of law in order for us to be able to advance and prosper.
00:24:10.000By the way, the reason so many people want to come to the United States is because we historically have defended the rule of law.
00:24:16.000Cities burning is not the rule of law.
00:24:18.000The fact is, the president and his people are doing the right thing to try to remove these dangerous people that were released into our country by Biden.
00:24:26.000Literally millions in violation of our law under parole and asylum that are then using resources, using up our law enforcement, using up hospitals, filling our schools.
00:24:56.000And by the way, a message to San Antonio, which I represent and others, you know, you need to step up.
00:25:01.000The city of San Antonio, the city of Dallas, city of Boston, city of Fort Worth, Houston, they need to step up, even though they have more liberal leadership.
00:25:09.000We do not tolerate lawlessness in the state of Texas.
00:25:12.000And so I'm good for the governor for engaging.
00:25:15.000If they can pull this off in Texas, Congressman, it's going to send a terrible message across the country, and the blue cities are going to burn even more.
00:25:24.000Somehow, your colleagues in the House, your Democratic colleagues, they keep finding themselves on the wrong side of 60-40, 70-30, 80-20 issues.
00:25:49.000Congressional Democrats stand in full solidarity with the residents of Los Angeles, with our immigrant sisters and brothers, and with the peaceful protesters who dare to speak out and who will support every effort to oppose this president's abuse of power.
00:26:06.000So Democrats are drawing the line in the sand.
00:26:09.000They're standing in solidarity with the immigrants.
00:26:11.000Now, I have a question for you, Congressman.
00:26:13.000If somebody breaks into the country, is that how you would define an immigrant?
00:26:17.000Well, notice she used the word resident.
00:26:19.000She certainly doesn't care about citizenship or legal status that is actually earned through the proper channels of law.
00:26:25.000Let's remember that it was the Biden administration and the radical Democrats in Congress.
00:26:30.000Who were using wrongly and illegally, in my view, a bastardized version of asylum and parole, which were put in there to be very technical, small ways for people to come to this country if they can make the case that there's an exclusion, that they should come here.
00:26:48.000And they categorically released millions of people into the United States.
00:26:52.000That was in violation of our law, which means those people do not have legitimate status here.
00:26:57.000And so we've got to deal with that reality.
00:27:01.000Democrats are, of course, on the wrong side of this, but let's be very clear.
00:27:04.000They're sending a really loud signal because they're picking a fight even on the criminals.
00:27:09.000They're not just picking a fight on the person who is here who isn't a dangerous criminal that was released into our country wrongly and illegally using public welfare benefits, raising our costs, and so forth.
00:27:21.000They're not picking that more, I guess, sympathetic.
00:27:25.000They're literally picking a fight on lawless criminals, like the guy in Maryland, like others, like this guy in Colorado that they're trying to defend.
00:27:34.000That tells you where they're coming from.
00:27:58.000Everything that you're seeing, I think, in Los Angeles, around the country, is galvanizing the base around getting the big, beautiful bill passed through the Senate.
00:28:05.000Are you optimistic that it's going to be improved in the Senate before it gets...
00:28:15.000Not unless the president is successful in getting the Senate to understand that the House is the baseline and they need to improve it.
00:28:21.000If they backslide on the green new subsidies, green new scam subsidies, they backslide on the Medicaid work requirements, they backslide on the spending restraint that got us to at least sort of believing that it would be deficit neutral.
00:28:33.000I said that through grit teeth, like you said.
00:30:25.000We have been hearing that They were on the precipice of having a nuclear weapon for a long time.
00:30:32.000Now we're hearing that they've made advances and that they have enough fuel to basically create 10 nuclear weapons.
00:30:38.000But they do not yet have the ability to militarize them, to deploy them, to actually turn them into bombs.
00:30:46.000Literally since the 90s, Blake says, we've been hearing this.
00:30:48.000And one of the biggest wins of Trumpism of the MAGA movement has been No new wars.
00:30:56.000We have stopped the insanity of death and destruction in the Middle East.
00:31:01.000And we, on this show, we're proud supporters of the state of Israel.
00:31:07.000We believe they have a right to exist.
00:31:09.000But we also believe that some things should be their problem, and not necessarily our problem as well.
00:31:15.000And we want to be enthusiastic supporters of their ability to defend themselves, to live in peace.
00:31:24.000Where Israel strikes Iran and America is not also embroiled in that conflict.
00:31:33.000There is no scenario, let me repeat, where Iran is struck by Israel, even in a precision strike, where America is not also brought into that struggle.
00:31:47.000Because even last year when Israel conducted targeted strikes on Iran, Missiles were then shot back at Israel.
00:31:55.000Some were intercepted by the Iron Dome.
00:31:57.000Others were intercepted by U.S. military.
00:32:00.000So if Iran, with its 2,000 ballistic missiles, were to fire those back at Israel, America would be forced to respond in defense of Israel so that we do not have a mass casualty event.
00:32:12.000And as Steve Witkoff is now saying, and it's been reported by Axios just moments ago, this represents everything.
00:32:22.000Just as big of an existential threat for Israel as Iran's nuclear capabilities.
00:32:27.000So one of the big instigating events here is the timing.
00:32:33.000Bibi Netanyahu just survived a vote of no confidence, narrowly, in Israel.
00:32:39.000So he's got a little bit of a lifeline.
00:33:26.000The hope is that this is all saber-rattling, that this is 3D chess, that Trump is trying to send a message to the Iranians, you better get serious, you better come to the table, you better have your concessions, because this is real.
00:33:52.000But I think Trump is willing to let a few dominoes fall in hopes that the Sunday talks with Steve Witkoff in Oman go well, and that they realize the Americans and the Israelis mean business.