Rich Barris goes through the latest polling numbers and asks if the polls are too good to be true and if they are oversampling Trump supporters. And Caitlin Sinclair, Turning Point USA spokesperson, goes through our latest Ballot Chaser Training. Become a Member today to get a signed copy of my new book, and to listen to all of our episodes. Become a member today and get your copy of My Book: A Guide to Winning the 2020 Election, a book written by a best-selling author and political strategist, about how to win the 2020 election, written by the man who is running for president, Charlie Kirk. Click here to get your free copy of the book and get a FREE copy of his book, "My Book: How To Win The 2020 Election: The Truth About Winning It All," which is available in Kindle, iBook, Paperback, Hardcover and Audio Book format, and is available for pre-order on Amazon starting on October 31st, 2019. If you don't have a Kindle device, you can get a free eReader edition of my book, My Book on Amazon so you can read the book on any laptop, desktop, smartphone, tablet, or portable hard drive, and then download it for free. Kindle $9.99, or paperback $99, and Audible Freebie $99.99. Audible is selling for 99.99 for 49p.99 starting October 1st, shipping from .99 a month. .0099 a year, shipping free.0099.00 a month, shipping is also available, shipping nationwide, and shipping nationwide Freebie Freebie, shipping worldwide, and will be shipping nationwide free, shipping will be available in .99 best FiFi, Prime Video is also be available on Prime and Vimeo Freebie and will get you an additional $49.99 a week, and a limited edition 4-GBRRPRP $99 or Best FiRRP $49,99, PrimeBook is available starting October 2020. and Best FiRO is also shipping nationwide. Freebie? Subscribe to My Book is a year-and-check out my book on my book is available on my website. I am working with my website, My book is Freebie! I'm working on a new book that will be out soon! I will be giving you a copy of My Book, My Name Is Charlie Kirk's book on the book I'm Working With Charlie Kirk, My Day Offs and My Book will be Out Soon.
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00:01:34.000Rich, I was trained in the school of Rush Limbaugh, the great Rush Limbaugh, who told us not to trust the polls.
00:01:40.000Rich, am I off base if I think that some of these polls might be oversampling Republicans to make us look like... I mean, when I see a poll, Rich, That has Donald Trump up 15 in Arizona.
00:01:59.000This is what I would tell people and I would, I would warn people.
00:02:02.000There are a lot of low prop and no prop, low propensity and no propensity voters who are telling us, and I can only speak for us, who are telling us that they are absolutely going to vote, Charlene.
00:02:15.000And the danger there is that they don't vote.
00:02:17.000These voters, typically those, that group of voters tend to be less credentialed, right?
00:02:24.000So we're talking about working class people and that used to once upon a time really benefit Democrats.
00:02:29.000This is the first cycle, the first year where we've really seen a sea change where that is benefiting Republicans in general, but really Donald Trump.
00:02:37.000If those people don't vote, Charlie, then yes, the polls will overstate Trump's support.
00:02:43.000However, I remember in 2016 not believing some of these people.
00:02:48.000And in Ohio, our final poll was Trump plus three.
00:02:53.000When I went back and looked at it, all of those, you know, coming from the woodwork, Ohio Valley voters, Ohio River Valley voters, were people who had basically given up.
00:03:04.000Some of them hadn't voted since Ross Perot.
00:03:49.000I'm sorry, that is a suppression poll.
00:03:52.000That's a suppression poll, as Rush would teach us, in the opposite direction.
00:03:57.000Again, Rich, I know that you're so into the data here, so you can feel free to push back.
00:04:02.000I think that polling in the mainstream industry is done with an intent to try to have a Democrat win.
00:04:10.000So if they can't configure the data to make it seem that Joe Biden is up 10, we'll make it seem as if, oh, I don't need to vote, Trump is up 15.
00:04:19.000I would believe that as much as I would believe a Biden plus 17 in Wisconsin from the ABC News Washington Post poll in 2020.
00:04:29.000And it's possible though that it was just honest, and here's why.
00:04:33.000I didn't look at the poll and how they sourced it or what data collection mode they used, but in states like Arizona and Nevada, there are certain data collection modes where you're going to reach Hispanics that are actually more More Republican than the voting electorate.
00:04:47.000You have to be really careful if you haven't been doing it for years, and I know there's like a new polling firm popping up every week, Charlie, right?
00:05:09.000Where were these pollsters where people overstated Jeff Flake and then he squeezed it out by under three points?
00:05:16.000So if you haven't been around long enough to know the groups that constantly give us problems, constantly difficult to poll, then I'm really skeptical of your ability to just hop in and do it now.
00:05:28.000Let's look at the averages, though, because averages are blending of multiple disciplines, multiple companies, and there are gold standard.
00:07:16.000Here's from Mark Caputo, who is a reporter with The Bulwark.
00:07:21.000Yeah, you're smart, but bulwark is a waste of rations.
00:07:24.000What they say is this, though, is that one Democratic insider tells me that the members, this is Democrat members, we're just brief, this is breaking, on internal polling that shows House Democrats could lose as many as 20 seats.
00:07:37.000Quote, we were supposed to win the House.
00:07:39.000Rich, where is the point of no return where all of a sudden Biden sinks the down ballot?
00:07:46.000Yeah, I think we're getting there now.
00:07:49.000Republicans have been trailing Trump, not only in his margin over Biden.
00:07:55.000If Trump has a three-point lead on Biden, Republicans have, even if they're ahead, have a smaller lead.
00:08:01.000But often, and for most of the year, we had Trump ahead, but Republicans down.
00:08:06.000This is now the second month in a row where we have Republicans up.
00:08:08.000They're still lower on vote share than he is.
00:08:11.000They're trailing by about four and a half points.
00:08:13.000Trump's vote share is higher, but it is now getting to the point where it is going to hurt down ballot.
00:08:20.000We don't live in the 1980 or 84 electorate anymore.
00:08:23.000You know, Charlie, where Reagan could take 20% of the Democratic vote at the presidential level and romp Jimmy Carter, but yet Democrats maintain down ballot.
00:08:33.000So, and by the way, what I think their worst nightmare is that the people I started to talk about in the beginning of this segment, they do come out and vote.
00:08:42.000And this vote is overwhelmingly for Trump.
00:08:44.000They don't know that much about down ballot politics, you know, and a group like this may not be Huge, but it's significant.
00:08:54.000And if they come in and they're voting for Trump to vote for Trump, and they just check the box for the next hour down ballot, that could wipe Democrats out.
00:09:01.000So, you know, I mean, we're, we have this thing now about a two, three point lead for Republicans nationally at the, you know, in the generic ballot.
00:09:10.000There's a lot of undecideds when those people decide it could be a 20, 25 seat hit for Democrats.
00:09:18.000Here's my belief, and I'm one of the few people, I actually think that because we are so partisan, that this race will actually generally and directionally tighten more than people think.
00:09:35.000I keep expecting it every month we go into the field, Charlie.
00:09:38.000I'm like, this is the month when Trump's black vote chair is going to fall a little, right?
00:09:43.000This is the month where, I don't know, Hispanics are going to go back to being like almost 60-40, and that would be reasonable, or even like 65-35, and that would be normal.
00:09:54.000But it hasn't happened as we get, you know, month to month.
00:09:58.000I'm wondering if Because you know better than most how solid the Democratic turnout machine is.
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00:11:35.000We're actually to the point where people are lying about who they voted for in 2020.
00:11:39.000And most of them, or I would say a significant number of them, are actually black voters who are now going to vote for Trump.
00:11:46.000And Hispanic voters are, I don't want to say the most honest, I'm just saying they're the most willing to say who they really did vote for in 2020.
00:13:31.000Biden's entire margin almost in the state of New Mexico in 2020 was from the Hispanic vote.
00:13:37.000So it passed his prologue and Trump does better again in New Mexico than he does among Hispanics nationwide, which by the way, the same is true in Arizona and Nevada.
00:13:48.000If that happens again, New Mexico is a nail biter.
00:14:16.000Yep, it's voting centers, but we know by neighborhoods, because people tend not to travel that far, we know by neighborhoods how Trump was doing in certain areas.
00:14:25.000And in the Hispanic areas were his strongest, some of his strongest areas in Maricopa County and the weakest for Biden.
00:14:32.000So Biden would do better, like 90% in white neighborhoods, whereas he was only pulling 78, 80% in Hispanic neighborhoods.
00:14:42.000Trump was getting 90% in Hispanic neighborhoods, and he was getting, well, you know, I don't have to tell you, 78, you know, ballpark in some of the white, more educated, even Republican areas.
00:14:53.000So that's what eventually pulled him up later on from the initial early vote that came in.
00:14:59.000So there's at least evidence that this is real.
00:15:04.000Which of the three blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, should Donald Trump focus on the most and is his best current path?
00:15:11.000to get to 270. Pennsylvania looks so good for him. It's the keystone state appropriately named.
00:15:16.000Wisconsin, it always polls more Democratic than it votes or it has in the past. I'm not saying
00:15:22.000it's going to happen again. It's just the case. I feel like if you're going to win Pennsylvania,
00:15:26.000Charlie, it's over. It's over. So you have a lot of electoral votes there, but also
00:15:31.000the demographics are a little bit more diverse than say Iowa or Wisconsin.
00:15:36.000Wisconsin looks more like Iowa to me than it does Pennsylvania, frankly.
00:15:41.000So, I mean, Pennsylvania is the linchpin.
00:16:15.000Not only is he unpopular, but he's also senile, and then he's hyper-aggressive.
00:16:21.000The American people put that together in a formula, and they don't like those ingredients.
00:16:27.000They say, okay, this guy's unpopular, he's not doing a good job, I can't afford groceries, and yeah, I don't like Trump, but why don't you just beat him if you don't like him?
00:16:36.000It is a bad recipe, and normal, everyday Americans are repulsed by it, and they should be.
00:18:29.000So a little bit of my background, as I just mentioned, I'm a fifth generation New Yorker, born and raised, and I was with One America News as a reporter for the past five years.
00:18:40.000I actually started my career at CNN, Charlie.
00:19:58.000And what happened to me was really just a microcosm of what's happening across the country.
00:20:02.000So the club called me and said, because of this post, because it was Pride Month, it
00:20:07.000does not align with their LGBTQ, LMNOP, plus, plus, plus views at the club.
00:20:15.000And for that reason, they were terminating my membership and I am no longer welcome back.
00:20:20.000Now, again, this was a microcosm of what's happening across the country.
00:20:25.000And when this initially happened to me, I took a step back.
00:20:28.000I said I was going to digest all of this.
00:20:31.000There were some articles being written saying I wanted to sue.
00:20:34.000And it's not about me, and this is not about the club.
00:20:36.000But I think, Charlie, this is about the larger message here, which is that Americans, New Yorkers especially, and I could speak to this firsthand from doing interviews and man on the streets for the past, even just the past two and a half years, seeing this shift.
00:20:50.000They feel like they don't have a voice.
00:20:52.000They feel like there is this two-tiered system of justice.
00:20:56.000And I can tell you at this point, I've received thousands of messages.
00:21:00.000From people across this country echoing this sentiment and they're fed up.
00:21:04.000They're fed up with the double standard for conservatives versus the other side.
00:21:08.000Why are, you know, and I said this in my messaging, at this particular social club, there are members that have attended pro-Hamas rallies, there are members that have posted things on their personal social media pages about not supporting Donald Trump, wanting him to go to prison, actually wishing death on him.
00:21:25.000There are members of that community that have posted on their social media pages that there's more than two genders.
00:21:33.000And those messages meant so much to me from conservatives and Christians across this country, really encouraging me, saying thank you so much for being a voice, for being a young voice, for not backing down, and for having the courage to do this in very liberal blue New York City.
00:21:50.000And I mentioned some of the Man on the Street interviews I've done, and I've noticed a shift, Charlie, and especially in the past two years, Where New Yorkers are fed up.
00:21:58.000They used to maybe whisper they supported Donald Trump.
00:22:02.000I would, you know, throw a microphone in some faces saying, who are we voting for?
00:22:06.000And they wouldn't want to say Donald Trump on camera.
00:22:08.000Maybe that was an off-the-camera, off-the-record conversation.
00:22:11.000But now, look at what we just witnessed in the Bronx.
00:22:14.000In the Bronx in New York City, which is 90% of Democrats that live there.
00:22:20.000And look at these crowds that are now turning up for Donald Trump.
00:22:23.000So the tide is shifting, and those messages that I received from Americans across the country, again, saying that this is a doubled standard, we cannot back down, we cannot be ashamed of our Christian or conservative values, and that's, again, it's not about me, it's not about the Social Club, it's about Americans.
00:22:42.000And so now you're with us at Turning Point Action, and you are seeing the important grassroots work that we are doing to register voters and to chase ballots.
00:22:50.000People can check it out at tpaction.com.
00:22:54.000Tell us about why you decided to join the team and what you've been seeing on the ground.
00:22:59.000Well, you know, I used to say that the group I belong to, the Millennial Generation and then the Gen Zers, were the most apathetic groups out there.
00:23:43.000I'm super excited about this, this new initiative we're launching with the Gen Z Coalition, because Charlie, you and I both know this.
00:23:50.000This is a generation that feels so disenfranchised.
00:23:54.000It's all about the loss of connectivity, of belonging somewhere.
00:23:57.000And that's why you're seeing so many of these college students so lost right now.
00:24:01.000So many of these college students Standing at these pro-Hamas and pro-Palestine protests and holding signs that say, from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free.
00:24:11.000And again, personal experience, I've interviewed some of these young folks.
00:24:15.000They don't even know what their signs mean.
00:24:17.000They don't even know what they're standing for.
00:24:19.000But they are longing to belong somewhere.
00:24:22.000And they're longing for America First policies.
00:27:11.000Well, I learned a long time ago, actually, that local is the way to make a difference.
00:27:17.000And I was so happy that that sentiment was echoed at these training camps and just to be in that room.
00:27:24.000These people want to save our country and they were learning the significance of starting locally, right?
00:27:29.000You and I have so many people reaching out to us.
00:27:32.000I'm sure you get hundreds of messages a week, if not in a day, people asking how they can get involved, how they can be a part of this movement.
00:27:40.000And I think the answer a lot of times is start locally, right?
00:27:44.000Own your streets is a favorite expression at TPA.
00:29:34.000It's about engaging these young people, right?
00:29:35.000Charlie, you and I talked about, before the break, How disenfranchised and alone this young generation feels and they're maybe turning to social media or they're maybe getting involved in things that they shouldn't be and they're maybe not understanding what this country was founded on and they're getting involved in messaging at these at this college level and some of these colleges that are indoctrinating young people and they're becoming lost.
00:29:59.000So having those conversations and having this generation be a part of something That involves faith and involves believing and love of country once again.
00:30:10.000I think there's nothing more beautiful and more timely than that.
00:30:13.000So that's what this coalition is all about.
00:30:18.000So separate from the college campuses and what you guys are focused on at CPUSA, we focus on grassroots activization with this young generation.
00:30:28.000Again, in your neighborhoods, owning your street, in your community, Talking to your friends, even if it's just one person a day.
00:30:36.000Have the conversation, and we can get a lot done.
00:30:54.000You can join our Moms Coalition, you can join our Latinos Coalition, our Black Americans Coalition, our Farmer and Ranchers Coalition, our Educators Coalition, our Faith Coalition, our Healthcare Workers Coalition, or our Gen Z Coalition.
00:31:12.000All of these are micro Communities that exist to be able to identify low propensity voters.
00:31:32.000And we are going to be doing this on college campuses, not across the country, in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, in particular, and a little bit of Georgia.
00:31:42.000We are soon going to announce my upcoming campus tour.
00:31:47.000My upcoming campus tour will be the most ambitious I've ever done, the most campuses I have ever visited this fall.
00:31:55.000I think I'm going to 21 campuses in 35 days.
00:31:59.000In addition to that, giving a speech almost every day.
00:32:01.000Still going to be doing our three-hour radio show every single day.
00:32:04.000And so our coalitions are really growing.