The Charlie Kirk Show - What Went Right in Arizona, and Left Everywhere Else

00:00:03.000 My name is Charlie Kirk.

00:00:05.000 I run the largest pro-American student organization in the country fighting for the future of our republic.

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00:01:09.000 All right, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:01:11.000 It's the day after what was largely a very lackluster, I would say dispiriting evening.

00:01:20.000 No, let's just rip the band-aid off.

00:01:22.000 It was bad.

00:01:23.000 It was bad.

00:01:24.000 We got whacked in the races.

00:01:26.000 It didn't go well.

00:01:27.000 It didn't go well.

00:01:28.000 And it's only cope to say that, oh, these were blue states.

00:01:33.000 I mean, I think there is some truth to that.

00:01:35.000 I think you could overreact because, again, this is New Jersey.

00:01:38.000 It's Virginia.

00:01:39.000 But the truth is, is that we did worse than we did in 2021, okay, and in these in these places.

00:01:44.000 So it was a step, it was a step back.

00:01:47.000 And we need to be honest about that and acknowledge that.

00:01:50.000 I'm joined by Blake Neff and Tyler Boyer, COO of Turning Point Action.

00:01:56.000 There was one bright spot.

00:02:00.000 Okay, listen, there was actually a few maybe bright spots, one extraordinarily bright spot, and that was here in Mesa, Arizona.

00:02:06.000 And the Turning Point Action team led the charge on that.

00:02:09.000 The grassroots rose up and ousted in a really difficult scenario, Spilsbury, who was the Republicans for Kamala leader in the state of Arizona.

00:02:21.000 So Tyler Boyer, why don't you tell us the backstory there?

00:02:24.000 Yeah, I mean, this is covered by the New York Times.

00:02:28.000 I'm dropping in the chat if we want to throw it up.

00:02:30.000 Politico brought this up.

00:02:33.000 This is a huge race.

00:02:35.000 So essentially what happened was the face of Republicans for Kamala.

00:02:41.000 So you want to talk about Soros-type funded ventures?

00:02:46.000 You had this entire mind F, whatever you want to call it, that happened in 2020 and 2024, where they funded these fake Republicans for Biden and then Republican later became Republicans for Harris or conservatives for Harris and all the key swing states.

00:03:04.000 So the face of this organization in many ways was the mayor of Mesa, Arizona.

00:03:10.000 His name is John Giles.

00:03:11.000 He got termed out and so was done this last year.

00:03:14.000 And his former vice mayor, Julie Spilsberry, who both were LDS, both were Mormon, and they were running as the face of this national operation that was abandon Trump if you're Republican and vote against him in 2024.

00:03:34.000 He spoke at the DNC.

00:03:36.000 She was very vocal.

00:03:37.000 She was on advertisements, you know, with espousing her elected position, that she should be trusted.

00:03:45.000 And this is like Alinsky Tactics 101 is use all these things to try to persuade kind of the more feeble voter, the people that don't know as much going on and saying, oh, everybody's voting against Trump, and so therefore I should too.

00:04:03.000 All right.

00:04:03.000 So what are the lessons here from this local race that we can extrapolate to the national scene?

00:04:09.000 So this is the heart of the, I mean, these types of psyops, some people call them, these type of things that happen within politics are at the heart of how they control the narrative around these elections.

00:04:24.000 So we ran, or we didn't run it, the grassroots ran it.

00:04:28.000 We supported it fully was removing this person from office.

00:04:32.000 To recall or remove someone from office is one of the most difficult things that you can do within politics.

00:04:37.000 But this is so important to do when people try to run these type of operations.

00:04:44.000 And it was hard work.

00:04:46.000 You have to go out, recruit all of the people to do it.

00:04:50.000 You have to collect the petitions and then ultimately win the election.

00:04:54.000 This lady last year, the significance of this in Arizona, Arizona, this is one of the biggest cities in America.

00:05:00.000 It's like top 35 cities.

00:05:01.000 This is actually, Maricopa is like the fifth largest metro area all in.

00:05:06.000 I know not Mesa specifically, but people need to understand how big this is.

00:05:09.000 It's the fourth largest metropolitan area in the country.

00:05:12.000 And it's in the Phoenix metro area.

00:05:14.000 So Phoenix, Mesa is usually how it's referred to, is the most conservative out of the big metro areas.

00:05:20.000 So this is like target number one for the Democrats to topple.

00:05:23.000 The Democrats want to turn Maricopa County blue for obvious reasons.

00:05:27.000 We all know all the hanky-panky that's gone on with elections and everything else.

00:05:32.000 That's getting somewhat corrected, not fully as we'd like, but getting in there.

00:05:37.000 This is the target, prime target number one.

00:05:40.000 And so this is why they choose people like this to lead the face of these type of operations.

00:05:45.000 And this is why it's so important to remove these people from office because it's the heart of it.

00:05:49.000 They would recruit a Mormon to do this too. 0.99

00:05:51.000 So I just want to like, I want to crystallize this for everybody.

00:05:55.000 This is a recall election where it's an R versus an R. That's the toughest type of election to educate a population that's kind of checked out.

00:06:03.000 It's an off-cycle, off-year election.

00:06:06.000 Which R am I choosing? 1.00

00:06:08.000 And so you have to then do the grassroots work, the door knocking in order to get this over the top.

00:06:08.000 Right.

00:06:14.000 Because this is how they do it, right?

00:06:16.000 So one is like a fraudulent Republican that has the backing of all the Democrats.

00:06:21.000 It's a Republican for Kamala.

00:06:23.000 Yeah, it's all the backing of all the Democrat Party.

00:06:25.000 So basically to win this election, you have to overcome the establishment.

00:06:30.000 Some people refer it to as the Unit Party.

00:06:32.000 And then you have to also tackle the Democrat Party.

00:06:35.000 Because they're not going to run a Democrat in this district because it's so conservative.

00:06:35.000 Yeah.

00:06:39.000 So they're putting a wolf in sheep's clothing to come and do this in a place like Mesa.

00:06:44.000 Yeah, because they're trying to flip Mesa, right?

00:06:46.000 Like over time, they want to make Mesa blue.

00:06:49.000 And so they've been fairly successful at this in years past.

00:06:54.000 And you're basically even in a place where it's 60% Republican.

00:06:59.000 That's like this district.

00:07:00.000 This district's like 55%, 60% Republican.

00:07:04.000 But again, it's like 30 plus percent, 40% Democrat.

00:07:09.000 You have to, again, win basically all the Republicans, educate all the Republicans to vote against her.

00:07:15.000 So yesterday, that was the huge bright spot was this leader.

00:07:19.000 This was a national leader in a swing state, a national leftist leader.

00:07:25.000 And let me just back that up.

00:07:26.000 There was Axios, there was Politico, there was New York Times.

00:07:29.000 They were all out here on a city council race.

00:07:34.000 Following everything.

00:07:35.000 Following everything.

00:07:36.000 Calling everybody, like harassing everybody on the team, trying to make this a national referendum because what they were hoping was that we were going to fail and that Julie Spilsberry was going to be re-elected and we're going to see, oh, this is another referendum on Trump.

00:07:50.000 Well, it didn't work out that way.

00:07:51.000 And turning point action, I mean, hat tip to you guys.

00:07:55.000 You guys were on this from the jump.

00:07:56.000 I mean, it was spearheaded by the grassroots, right?

00:07:59.000 And people were like, well, why are you getting so involved?

00:08:00.000 It's like, well, listen, our grassroots wants to be involved in this.

00:08:03.000 We're going to have their backs.

00:08:04.000 We're going to be a voice for the grassroots and muscular class.

00:08:06.000 We're not going to let this just go unnoticed and unresolved here.

00:08:11.000 So we're, yeah, of course, we're going to support the grassroots.

00:08:13.000 And of course, this is also, this is, I mean, this is, Charlie cared a lot about making Phoenix and Arizona as conservative, as Republican as possible.

00:08:22.000 Of course.

00:08:23.000 Well, you have to, dude, look at how they react.

00:08:24.000 Politico has a headline a few days ago.

00:08:26.000 This is like the first test of Turning Point as an actual muscle in politics.

00:08:32.000 You have to, Blake, in order just to flip the state.

00:08:35.000 Because if as Phoenix goes, the Phoenix metropolitan area goes, Arizona goes.

00:08:39.000 As Arizona goes, statistically, the presidency goes.

00:08:43.000 Yeah, and also when people don't realize this is that these things are so critical because if you lose them, it gives it emboldens the left to spend millions more dollars in your swing state to win the next big election.

00:08:57.000 Today, the Democrats woke up going, wow, they mean business.

00:09:02.000 Maybe we shouldn't invest the millions more dollars into that state next election cycle because it's not worth it.

00:09:07.000 We need to come up with a different strategy to win in 2028.

00:09:10.000 That is exactly what we want them to do.

00:09:13.000 Well, if you run the models, it's like, what is it, like 70% of the Democrat models to win a nationwide presidential race go through Arizona?

00:09:20.000 That's right.

00:09:20.000 So if you break the back of the Democrat Party in this state, you demoralize them and you let them know, like, hey, there's a new sheriff in town.

00:09:28.000 We're not going to be messed with, and we're going to pour a ton of resources and manpower into this state.

00:09:32.000 Well, guess what?

00:09:33.000 Their models get a lot trickier, a lot more difficult.

00:09:37.000 And so that's why we are not going anywhere in the state of Arizona.

00:09:41.000 As a matter of fact, Tyler, it's safe to say we are doubling, tripling down in the future.

00:09:46.000 That's right.

00:09:46.000 And we have more on this.

00:09:49.000 I think we should share some of these videos.

00:09:50.000 Yeah, well, it's going to be pretty great.

00:09:54.000 Yeah, we could do, let's go 290, 290, real quick.

00:09:57.000 Yeah, look, people are always saying that they wish they had better candidates that would run for office.

00:10:04.000 I don't think that's true because when good people run for office just because I want to serve my community, and then this is what happens to me, why would anyone want to run when you have groups like Turning Point that can go out there and put up thousands of signs?

00:10:20.000 So sad.

00:10:20.000 Too bad.

00:10:23.000 We're honored to be partnering with Alan Jackson Ministries.

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00:10:54.000 They've been great friends.

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00:10:57.000 Each episode will make you recognize the power of your faith and how God can use your life to impact our world today.

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00:11:25.000 Let's go ahead and play 292.

00:11:28.000 Tyler, I think you're going to like this.

00:11:29.000 Is Julie Spilsberry claiming that Turning Point's huge and that we bust in a bunch of like ballot chasers or something?

00:11:36.000 292.

00:11:37.000 Turning point's huge.

00:11:38.000 They're a national organization.

00:11:39.000 They have a ton of money.

00:11:40.000 They have a ton of volunteers.

00:11:41.000 There were probably 30 volunteers at the polling place today.

00:11:44.000 Tons of people were flown in from out of state.

00:11:47.000 Lots of people told me that people knocked on their door that weren't even from Arizona.

00:11:51.000 How do I fight that?

00:11:52.000 How do I fight that?

00:11:53.000 And the recall would never have been successful without Turning Point's employees, over 30 of them out knocking doors that are not from Mesa.

00:12:00.000 I mean, thank you for the ad.

00:12:03.000 I live in Mesa, Julie.

00:12:05.000 I mean, she already knows this.

00:12:07.000 She was trying to tell all her friends that, you know, I'm a good person and why is Tyler going out?

00:12:14.000 We had all of these people that were knocking doors are all our Arizonans.

00:12:18.000 We've got dozens of staff hired and hired up for Mesa, not just for the Mesa recall, but also for the upcoming SRP and Andy Biggs election.

00:12:28.000 And so, but I mean, you can't have a better ad than that.

00:12:30.000 The vast majority of the libs saying turning point's too big and they know what they're doing too well.

00:12:36.000 I know.

00:12:36.000 It's a great clip.

00:12:38.000 Let's turn our attention because that was a huge feather in the cap of Turning Point action here in Arizona.

00:12:44.000 But let's turn our attention to New Hampshire.

00:12:46.000 So tell us what happened in New Hampshire.

00:12:47.000 There was a special election there in Berlin, right?

00:12:51.000 Yeah, there's a special election in New Hampshire.

00:12:53.000 New Hampshire has extremely small state house seats.

00:12:58.000 I think they have the largest.

00:12:59.000 Most per capita.

00:13:00.000 They have the most per capita.

00:13:02.000 They have, I think, the third largest legislature of any kind in the English-speaking world.

00:13:07.000 It's like the House of Commons, the House of Representatives, and then the New Hampshire State Assembly.

00:13:12.000 It has 400-some people in it, I think.

00:13:15.000 Oh, geez.

00:13:16.000 And let's put up 294.

00:13:18.000 Yeah, there it is.

00:13:19.000 So this is Davis Miller, one of our guys, he says, special elections are all about turnout.

00:13:23.000 This special election was decided by 13 votes.

00:13:28.000 Turning point action had two Super Chase events there ahead of this week's election.

00:13:33.000 And, you know, when it's 13 votes, that probably did directly make the difference.

00:13:37.000 Absolutely.

00:13:38.000 Yeah, our team was on the ground.

00:13:40.000 We have an incredible team in New Hampshire.

00:13:41.000 We're one of the only national organizations to have full-time local staff.

00:13:45.000 Both Davis and Lisa that we have on our team are leaders there.

00:13:50.000 We're going to be hiring up actually dozens more people in the state of New Hampshire for this ahead of 2026 and 2028.

00:13:57.000 But this is where it's all about.

00:14:00.000 The only two states that really had this significant impact are both Arizona and New Hampshire yesterday.

00:14:05.000 New Hampshire skewed right.

00:14:07.000 It wasn't just so they gained seats in the legislature, including the special election that was decided by 13 votes where our team had actually done ballot chasing initiatives.

00:14:16.000 We also had a huge mayoral election.

00:14:19.000 So the biggest city in New Hampshire is Manchester.

00:14:22.000 It's not the capital, but it's the biggest city.

00:14:25.000 And a conservative won the mayor race yesterday that was there for Manchester, which is a huge deal.

00:14:35.000 When you look at the rest of the country, where we had every, I mean, a lot of these big cities, you don't even have a Republican running for a mayor.

00:14:43.000 A Republican won in Manchester.

00:14:45.000 And again, the pathway to 2028 directly goes through Arizona and New Hampshire.

00:14:51.000 Well, and that's, that's, I want to give people a little bit of a sense of where this is going.

00:14:56.000 We are, and I mentioned this last night on the stream, but for those listening now, there is a, I see this on X a lot where they're like, you got to get into this race. 0.56

00:15:05.000 And why isn't Turning Point coming out here earlier?

00:15:06.000 And why isn't, listen, if somebody wants to fund something, that's one thing.

00:15:12.000 But we have a disconnect with our donor class of what they're willing to invest money in.

00:15:16.000 So for example, we had people in New Jersey.

00:15:16.000 Okay.

00:15:18.000 We had people in PA.

00:15:19.000 We had all this stuff.

00:15:21.000 Did we have enough?

00:15:22.000 But secondly, you know, is anybody going to fund it?

00:15:22.000 Obviously not.

00:15:25.000 Yeah, let's be real.

00:15:27.000 Like, for example, us flipping Arizona last year.

00:15:30.000 This was not, we had some super chase events.

00:15:33.000 This was, we had full-time staffers handling quite small geographical areas, knocking on doors regularly, knocking on doors repeatedly, following up, getting to know, building the relationships in all these local areas.

00:15:47.000 Well, that is bluntly not a cheap thing to do.

00:15:50.000 It's not an easy thing to do.

00:15:52.000 There's a calculation for it, Blake.

00:15:53.000 I mean, it's really simple.

00:15:54.000 We've done all the math.

00:15:56.000 We can show you the math of what it takes for each of these states.

00:15:59.000 And it's really simple.

00:16:00.000 It just breaks down to how many votes exist out there that are low propensity, are enough chaseable to win, and how many bodies do you need to cover those bodies.

00:16:08.000 Just so you know, we had, I mean, I don't want to give away the inside scoop here, but yeah, there's a very small population that you put a staffer on.

00:16:16.000 Very, very small.

00:16:17.000 So, but here's what I want to say.

00:16:18.000 Like, I think there's this tendency in, and you see this on X, after Charlie's assassination to sort of like think, oh, turning points like so gargantuan that we can be in all 50 states.

00:16:29.000 That's not at all how it was.

00:16:30.000 Charlie was very good about saying no.

00:16:32.000 Okay.

00:16:32.000 He was saying no to bad investments.

00:16:35.000 And he would focus turning points' attention, and that's what we're doing.

00:16:38.000 We are very focused on building a red wall that can literally make their models have to go into very unfavorable territory in 2026 and 2028.

00:16:48.000 And I'll say this real quick, Andrew, is that you have to have enough time to build it, and you have to put the resources down in order to build it.

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00:18:01.000 I want to get into what I believe happened last night.

00:18:05.000 And then Blake and Tyler, I think, you know, chime in and correct me where I'm wrong and add to it.

00:18:11.000 Here's the bottom line.

00:18:12.000 And I go back to something we talked about with Rich Barris last week.

00:18:17.000 And basically, the polling shows something that we need to confront and be very aware of and be honest about.

00:18:24.000 And that is that a lot of people believe that the things that President Trump were elected on, namely the economy, immigration, energy prices, the affordability crisis, those things are not being addressed.

00:18:39.000 They feel like the Republicans that were elected in November are focusing too much on foreign policy affairs.

00:18:46.000 Their attention is not on the domestic issues.

00:18:49.000 Now, do I think some of that is fair?

00:18:52.000 Do I think some of it's unfair?

00:18:52.000 Sure.

00:18:54.000 I actually really think a lot of it's unfair.

00:18:56.000 I think that we have to wait for some of these policies to take their effect.

00:19:00.000 But perception is reality.

00:19:03.000 And some of that perception is showing up in the enthusiasm gaps between Democrats and Republicans.

00:19:10.000 And you saw that last night.

00:19:11.000 You saw a state like Virginia, which Glenn Yunken held.

00:19:17.000 Every single county moved to the left.

00:19:18.000 Show 283.

00:19:20.000 This is a map of Virginia, and every single county moved to the left.

00:19:24.000 There's not one red arrow on that county.

00:19:27.000 And what's happening is you're getting a lot of normie sort of working class, ethnic minority voters that said, hey, Trump's good at making me money.

00:19:35.000 I had more money in my pocket when President Trump was president the first time, who just come out to the polls because they thought, hey, I'm poor now.

00:19:43.000 I'm going to give the other guy a shot.

00:19:45.000 And they don't feel that yet.

00:19:46.000 They don't see it yet.

00:19:47.000 And again, perception is reality.

00:19:50.000 We have to do these big, audacious, crazy, you know, policies where, you know, I mentioned to Rich Barris, we need a Hoover Dam.

00:19:59.000 Obviously, we're not going to be building a dam in 2025, but we need these big visual markers to say, hey, we're breaking ground on this big thing.

00:20:06.000 We're focusing on this big thing.

00:20:09.000 We're delivering for our voters.

00:20:11.000 And again, a lot of this is going to be low propensity, normie people that are not checked into the political process every day, like a lot of you that are watching this show, a lot of us that follow this every day.

00:20:22.000 They need big wins that make them feel a certain way, that make them feel like the politicians they elected to office and to power are doing the work that they elected them to do. 0.99

00:20:32.000 It's the economy stupid. 0.98

00:20:33.000 I know that it's cliche at this point, but that's true. 1.00

00:20:37.000 We see that in the polling.

00:20:38.000 There's too much focus on these external affairs.

00:20:40.000 The only one of the domestic policy fronts that President Trump is scoring high on right now is immigration.

00:20:47.000 So, yes, that becomes an animating issue for the left, but ultimately, people, the majority of people, are still happy that the border is not overrun by illegals. 0.69

00:20:56.000 Well, and keep in mind, Andrew, so off-election cycle elections, so non-traditional.

00:21:03.000 Non-presidential years, really.

00:21:04.000 Even midterms are.

00:21:06.000 Again, this isn't even a midterm election.

00:21:08.000 This is an off-presidential cycle.

00:21:09.000 So what happens is that you have low turnout, and the determining factor is who shows up and who gets their people out.

00:21:17.000 So you have two, it's two points.

00:21:18.000 I was about to get to that point.

00:21:20.000 So the first point is enthusiasm gap.

00:21:22.000 And right now, we're just being honest.

00:21:24.000 Well, enthusiasm drives turnout.

00:21:26.000 Yeah, enthusiasm is down for us right now because of a couple things.

00:21:30.000 I think, again, it's this foreign policy fixation.

00:21:34.000 Are those wins important?

00:21:35.000 Yes, because when we have peace in the world, we're allowed to focus on domestic issues.

00:21:40.000 So you almost have to fix all the garbage that was going on in order to be able to fixate on the domestic policy issue.

00:21:46.000 But again, perception's reality.

00:21:49.000 We need to, as many of these foreign trips and all this stuff, it's really important.

00:21:53.000 It's good.

00:21:54.000 We need to actually message equally, if not way more so, on the domestic wins, the domestic achievements here, right?

00:22:01.000 And then you pair that with an enthusiasm gap.

00:22:04.000 You pair that with something that Dad Republican mentioned really quick.

00:22:08.000 Throw up image 300.

00:22:10.000 And she's looking across Indeed and the job sites, and she found over 6,000 jobs for grassroots.

00:22:18.000 These are civic engagement people.

00:22:19.000 This would be ballot chasers on the left.

00:22:22.000 So here's the pairing of these two nodes.

00:22:26.000 You've got to have the infrastructure to drive low propensity voters out, but you also have to have policy wins and candidates that inspire enthusiasm.

00:22:34.000 It's a both and.

00:22:36.000 So in 2024, Kamala Harris still had, and the Democrats still had the edge on ballot ground game stuff.

00:22:44.000 They had more people out in the field.

00:22:45.000 My mom in Nevada, swing state, had her door knocked on about 14 times. 1.00

00:22:50.000 She was throwing out all of the paperwork they were leaving, the pamphlets and all this stuff, because she didn't want to vote for Kamala. 0.96

00:22:57.000 My mom's kind of a swing voter, actually. 0.95

00:22:57.000 It didn't matter. 0.95

00:23:00.000 She's proudly independent.

00:23:01.000 I've been working on her for years.

00:23:03.000 But the point is, because she was on their radar, she got hit up a lot. 1.00

00:23:09.000 It didn't matter because for Kamala, she was a bad candidate.

00:23:12.000 Trump was coming in after a disastrous four years.

00:23:15.000 People were ready for change.

00:23:17.000 So you have to pair up enthusiasm with ground game.

00:23:20.000 And when they have 6,000 job postings on the Democrat side to get out ground game and knock on doors, that is a heck of a mountain to climb when you're a conservatives with a low-prop voting base in an off-year election, okay?

00:23:34.000 So the point is this: focus on domestic, focus on policy wins.

00:23:39.000 Perception is reality.

00:23:40.000 You have to show, tell, and reveal to the audience the things that you're doing for them to make their lives easier and better to make them richer.

00:23:49.000 And then finally, you have to build the infrastructure.

00:23:53.000 We have to keep building.

00:23:54.000 A lot of people think turning point can be in 50 states.

00:23:57.000 That's not really going to ever happen, okay?

00:23:59.000 There's limited resources.

00:24:00.000 The donor class has to align with the new realities of elections and the new realities of the conservative base.

00:24:06.000 And that is that we are a low-prop party that's lacking in enthusiasm.

00:24:10.000 And the coalition that we built, we've done a lot to actually alienate them, and we have to be honest about that.

00:24:15.000 Well, you brought up something really important, Andrew.

00:24:17.000 Again, look back at Glenn Young's race.

00:24:19.000 And Glenn Young's a very nice guy.

00:24:21.000 I just was in a room with him this week, and he speaks very well.

00:24:24.000 And I think he's appealing to a lot of.

00:24:28.000 Of course, he's a great candidate.

00:24:29.000 I mean, you could disagree with him and call him like a rhino or something.

00:24:32.000 I'm telling you, the guy's a great candidate for a state like Virginia.

00:24:32.000 Not true MAGA.

00:24:35.000 Well, but let's look back four years ago.

00:24:38.000 Let's look back to when he ran.

00:24:41.000 When he ran, he won because the moms showed up big time.

00:24:47.000 Because if you remember, the enthusiasm is the point.

00:24:49.000 So the enthusiasm wave that he wrote on was, remember, there was this entire scuffle that was happening across the state of Virginia where parents were showing up to school board meetings, and that gave them the wave, the enthusiasm lift for him to win.

00:25:07.000 Well, let's check this out.

00:25:08.000 So throw up image 296.

00:25:10.000 I think this is really telling.

00:25:11.000 Virginia AG race by gender.

00:25:13.000 Look at this.

00:25:14.000 So this, again, this is Jay Jones, who proudly fetishizes, killing his political opponents, doubles down even when the person on the other end of the text is telling him that they're uncomfortable with the way he's talking.

00:25:26.000 Females, 61% to 44 for Jones.

00:25:31.000 So Andrew, let me 61 to 44.

00:25:33.000 Let me spell this out for everyone.

00:25:35.000 If you have a 20 plus percent, and in a lot of cases, it's more than 20 percent, a 20 to 30 percent differential on candidates for females.

00:25:45.000 So the left, they're voting for leftists by 20 to 30 points in addition.

00:25:51.000 And then our males, you saw the numbers, our men are not matching the numbers.

00:25:55.000 Are they not matching the same numbers, but it's close.

00:25:59.000 Men are voting for the Republicans by 15 to 20 points.

00:26:03.000 Yeah, it's 55 to 39.

00:26:05.000 But here's the problem.

00:26:06.000 Probably 16-point edge.

00:26:07.000 If fewer men show up to vote and more women show up to vote, then they have a dramatic differential in that.

00:26:16.000 So again, a presidential, you have about the same amount of men and women who show up to vote. 0.57

00:26:22.000 In an off-election year, you have a lot more women potentially show up to vote.

00:26:27.000 I don't have the data in front of me for Virginia, but I can just tell you right now by the outcome is that a lot more women showed up to vote than men. 0.86

00:26:36.000 And because of that differential, you're going to lose every single day.

00:26:39.000 Absolutely.

00:26:39.000 Well, and this was a big story in 2024, how we drove the men out.

00:26:43.000 I mean, there were articles written about turning point targeting men with text campaigns.

00:26:47.000 I mean, and you had the entire, they were calling it the manosphere and the Rogan effect and all this stuff.

00:26:53.000 Well, guess what? 0.69

00:26:53.000 Men are harder to get out to the polls than women. 0.69

00:26:55.000 Women just vote more. 1.00

00:26:57.000 They just vote more often. 1.00

00:26:58.000 They're more predictable voters, and they tend to be prone to emotional arguments that Democrats make.

00:27:03.000 Check out this image, 297.

00:27:05.000 This is Virginia by how many children do you have?

00:27:09.000 And if you have them, then you voted for Miaris, the Republican candidate.

00:27:14.000 If you don't, you voted for Jay Jones.

00:27:16.000 So there's another dynamic there.

00:27:18.000 Let's go to New Jersey and go by age.

00:27:20.000 This one's terrifying, Blake, and I think you should chime in on that.

00:27:23.000 I mean, I mean, so all the gains that we had with young people, and I'll never forget this.

00:27:23.000 I'm just kidding.

00:27:28.000 I mean, I don't want to spill too many beans here, but there were at least three instances where Charlie called the administration and said, all the gains that we saw in that election with young people, you guys are jeopardizing them.

00:27:40.000 I'll just put it.

00:27:42.000 Like, I think let's not beat around the bush here.

00:27:44.000 Guys, this went bad because right now Trump is an unpopular president.

00:27:47.000 I'm just going to lay it out.

00:27:48.000 President Trump's approval rating on average is about 42%.

00:27:52.000 His disapproval is 55%.

00:27:54.000 Today, the average today is the lowest it's been his entire second term.

00:27:59.000 And if you're an guy at the top is not that popular, it's going to have a cascading effect down the ballot.

00:28:06.000 And if you look at individual issues, he's underwater on inflation.

00:28:09.000 He's underwater on trade.

00:28:10.000 He's underwater on the economy, all of those by over 15 points.

00:28:13.000 He's even underwater on immigration by 5%.

00:28:16.000 And, you know, some of that you can debate: oh, is it because they want it faster versus slower?

00:28:21.000 Besides the point, he's underwater.

00:28:24.000 He's the guy at the top, and that's going to affect things.

00:28:28.000 I think the economy is a huge deal.

00:28:30.000 If you look at the numbers, look at the economy overall is shaky.

00:28:34.000 The economy for people under 30 is catastrophic.

00:28:38.000 Hiring for entry-level positions in the U.S. is horrible right now.

00:28:42.000 Well, and a lot of that you're seeing.

00:28:45.000 The average age of a first-time homebuyer is over, is just eclipsed 40 years old.

00:28:50.000 It's gone up, I think, nine years or something, or seven years in like five years total.

00:28:56.000 It's going up.

00:28:57.000 The average age of a homebuyer is rising faster than the passage of time.

00:29:01.000 Let's make this point.

00:29:03.000 In most states, you cannot win an election if you lose the under 40 vote.

00:29:08.000 The entire electorate has shifted.

00:29:11.000 It is millennial heavy.

00:29:13.000 If you are losing by double digits, the millennial vote, you will lose every election. 1.00

00:29:19.000 And again, the female vote is contributing heavily towards that.

00:29:22.000 We've got to figure it out.

00:29:26.000 This is Lane Schoenberger, Chief Investment Officer and Founding Partner of YReFi.

00:29:30.000 It has been an honor and a privilege to partner with Turning Point and for Charlie to endorse us.

00:29:36.000 His endorsement means the world to us, and we look forward to continuing our partnership with Turning Point for years to come.

00:29:42.000 Now, here Charlie, in his own words, tell you about why ReFi.

00:29:46.000 I'm going to tell you guys about whyRefi.com.

00:29:47.000 That is why F.Y.com.

00:29:50.000 WhyReFi is incredible.

00:29:51.000 Private student loan debt in America totals about $300 billion.

00:29:54.000 WhyReFi is refinancing distress or defaulted private student loans?

00:29:58.000 You can finally take control of your student loan situation with a plan that works for your monthly budget.

00:30:02.000 Go to YReFi.com.

00:30:04.000 That is whyRefi.com.

00:30:05.000 If you have a co-borrower, YReFi can get them released from the loan.

00:30:09.000 You're going to skip a payment up to 12 times without penalty.

00:30:11.000 It may not be available in all 50 states.

00:30:13.000 Go to YReFi.com.

00:30:15.000 That is YREFY.com.

00:30:18.000 Let's face it, if you have distress or defaulted student loans, it can be overwhelming.

00:30:22.000 Because of private student loan debt, so many people feel stuck.

00:30:25.000 Go to yrefi.com.

00:30:26.000 That is why.com.

00:30:29.000 Private student loan debtrelief, yrefi.com.

00:30:34.000 We do remember the 5th of November last November.

00:30:37.000 It was a great night.

00:30:38.000 It was a night where the coalition came together, a coalition that we built on working people, even some union people, blacks, Hispanics came out.

00:30:47.000 By the way, that was a number that was shocking out of New Jersey last night.

00:30:51.000 The Hispanic vote fell off a cliff, too.

00:30:54.000 You should worry about that one because that giant house redraw they just did in Texas was based on we're better with Hispanics now so we can do this. 1.00

00:31:02.000 If they swerve back to being really blue, instead of we pick up five seats in Texas, this could be we lose 10 seats in Texas.

00:31:09.000 Well, I'll just say this is that it's again, you're talking low propensity voters, right?

00:31:14.000 So You don't want to infer too much off of a non-traditional election, a midterm or a presidential.

00:31:23.000 But what you do want to do is look at the hard numbers and say, did these people turn out?

00:31:30.000 It's really easy to identify.

00:31:32.000 It's really easy to identify.

00:31:33.000 Now, to your point, if we look at the data and it shows these people turned out and you lose the election, that's saying something.

00:31:40.000 This is why looking at the data at census block level, at precinct level, is really important.

00:31:46.000 Because if you're targeting with full-time staff, the right voters with the right people, you know, and geographically, demographically, then you get a better outcome.

00:31:58.000 Yeah, again, I think it's three things.

00:31:59.000 Voter enthusiasm, to your point.

00:32:02.000 Trump is at a nader.

00:32:04.000 It's just, yeah, he's at a low ebb.

00:32:06.000 He's at a low ebb.

00:32:07.000 He didn't time out well with these elections.

00:32:09.000 Two, you need the infrastructure.

00:32:11.000 You need donor alignment on what actually works.

00:32:13.000 And it's funny because there's people like, I've not seen any indication that what Turning Point or Scott Presser or whatever does is actually working.

00:32:21.000 No, that's the wrong conclusion to draw.

00:32:24.000 You need more, not less.

00:32:26.000 And third, you need good candidates that are popular.

00:32:30.000 I mean, Winsome Sears, I never, no disrespect. 1.00

00:32:34.000 I think she's a nice lady. 1.00

00:32:35.000 I never thought she was a great candidate for that, for the governor in Virginia. 0.85

00:32:38.000 And it showed.

00:32:39.000 Go ahead, Doug.

00:32:40.000 One thing we didn't talk about yet was that it looks like the goose is cooked on the Minneapolis mayoral race.

00:32:48.000 Omar Fateh looks like lost in ranked choice voting.

00:32:51.000 They have ranked choice voting that's implemented in Minneapolis.

00:32:54.000 And this is the rare occasion where Deep Blue City ranked choice voting actually benefits a little bit.

00:33:01.000 And Jacob Fry looks like he has squeaked it out by a few thousand votes.

00:33:07.000 Wow.

00:33:09.000 Win one for the, I guess, the old school Democrats.

00:33:13.000 The ranked choice voting.

00:33:14.000 But again, this is what caused it.

00:33:16.000 I'm going to say that I don't know how people respond to this.

00:33:20.000 But we were commenting even in the cold open of this show, and you were listening to it.

00:33:25.000 He's like, I got four words for you.

00:33:26.000 This is Mamdani to Trump.

00:33:29.000 Or was it, yeah, it was just Trump.

00:33:30.000 He goes, I have four words for you.

00:33:32.000 Turn the volume up.

00:33:34.000 And I looked at Blake. 0.99

00:33:35.000 I was like, damn, he's talented. 0.99

00:33:38.000 Omar Fatah was not talented. 1.00

00:33:41.000 Not talented.

00:33:41.000 Not talented at all.

00:33:42.000 Neither is Jacob Fry.

00:33:44.000 But I mean, here's the thing.

00:33:44.000 You had two things happen in the mayoral race in New York City.

00:33:47.000 You had Cuomo, who's got more baggage than a American Airlines cross-country trip.

00:33:54.000 He's got a ton of baggage, okay? 0.94

00:33:55.000 The guy's got sexual assaults. 0.77

00:33:58.000 Basically, his policies contributed to killing old people and nursing homes.

00:34:02.000 I mean, the guy's got a lot of baggage in New York.

00:34:05.000 And it was actually a little closer than we expected.

00:34:08.000 I mean, to be fair, right?

00:34:10.000 A lot of the Sli-Wa vote ended up going over and going with Cuomo.

00:34:16.000 Almost unexpectedly because Mamdani is talented.

00:34:19.000 He's a very talented.

00:34:20.000 And I think he's probably the leading Democrat competing with AOC as far as just energy from the base.

00:34:29.000 Yeah, I mean, he's a popular guy.

00:34:31.000 Although, again, with AOC, keep in mind, some of this is Republicans, people watching Fox and stuff.

00:34:36.000 They like to fixate.

00:34:38.000 They're protecting mascot Democrats as well.

00:34:42.000 So I don't know that you want to leap to the conclusion that he's the immediate head of the party.

00:34:48.000 We can anoint him the head of the party, I suppose.

00:34:51.000 Well, listen, if he's not the guy, okay, fine.

00:34:54.000 He's one of the guys.

00:34:55.000 Okay, but here's the other thing.

00:34:57.000 We've talked about this a lot, Blake.

00:34:59.000 The youth vote, the gains we made in the youth vote in 2024 were fickle.

00:35:05.000 Things like bombing around.

00:35:07.000 Let's just be honest about it.

00:35:08.000 The Epstein for Caso, like all of this stuff has been chipping away.

00:35:13.000 And then they still don't feel like they can buy a home.

00:35:16.000 There's been no moonshot.

00:35:17.000 I mean, I'll never forget Charlie calling for the moonshot.

00:35:20.000 We need 10 million homes.

00:35:21.000 We need to make real ups.

00:35:23.000 It's easy to say, like, we need a moonshot.

00:35:25.000 That's actually a hugely difficult problem to solve.

00:35:27.000 Like, of course.

00:35:28.000 If you want to do that, you need to aggressively, radically deregulate a lot of what restricts home building right now.

00:35:35.000 You'd have to, it's actually a serious problem that takes effort to solve.

00:35:39.000 You'd have to look to imitate the states that have a lot of home building.

00:35:43.000 That would probably be, you know, I bet Texas is pretty good at it.

00:35:46.000 I think the Dakotas are pretty good at it.

00:35:47.000 Florida, I imagine, is pretty good at it.

00:35:49.000 And you have to generalize those and push those along.

00:35:52.000 And it's easy to say, do a moonshot.

00:35:56.000 Landing on the moon was hard.

00:35:57.000 There's a reason we can't do it anymore.

00:35:59.000 We're not the country that landed on the moon in 1964.

00:36:02.000 We're going to have to find that country again.

00:36:04.000 And by the way, there's a huge dynamic in New York that we haven't even got to this hour, the hour flies so fast.

00:36:10.000 But just foreign-born voters in New York and in Virginia went overwhelmingly for Mamdani and the Democrats.

00:36:18.000 So you've got foreigners pouring in. 0.97

00:36:20.000 They're voting Democrat.

00:36:21.000 And you've got young people that came over, gave us a shot, but they were not locked in.

00:36:26.000 And we've done a lot to alienate those six.

00:36:27.000 So there's multiple things here that we got to focus our attention on.

00:36:32.000 But we cannot blackpill.

00:36:34.000 We fight, fight, fight.

00:36:35.000 We fight on because guess what?

00:36:37.000 There's no other option.

00:36:38.000 We don't fight because we know we're going to win.

00:36:39.000 We fight because we know it's the right thing to do.

00:36:42.000 And in politics, you know, a year plus until there's a year until the midterms.

00:36:49.000 And we got three years until the next presidential election.

00:36:53.000 It's a lot of time to make up ground and to fix some of this stuff.

00:36:56.000 And we've got to fixate on it.

00:36:57.000 We've got to do it.

00:37:03.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - November 05, 2025

What Went Right in Arizona, and Left Everywhere Else

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