The Charlie Kirk Show - Who Is Really Up In the 2024 Polls?

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, today on the Charlie Kirk show, Rich Barris from Big Data Poll.

00:00:03.000 We talk about who has the advantage right now, Trump or Biden.

00:00:06.000 The answer might surprise you.

00:00:08.000 Who should Trump choose as vice president?

00:00:10.000 As we go through a rapid-fire 2024 conversation, you're going to love it.

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00:00:31.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:32.000 Here we go.

00:00:33.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

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00:01:31.000 Joining us now is Rich Barris from Big Data Poll, Big Data Poll.

00:01:34.000 Rich, lots to talk about.

00:01:36.000 Let's queue it up with Cut88.

00:01:38.000 Quinnipiak has Biden up on Trump.

00:01:41.000 Six points, 50 to 44.

00:01:43.000 This poll does have Haley doing better against Biden than Trump. 0.87

00:01:48.000 She has got him, according to Quinnipiak, by five, 47 to 42 nationally.

00:01:52.000 And we may also have an answer to the question: who do third-party candidates hurt?

00:01:58.000 Ultimately, according to this poll, they hurt Trump because both Biden and Trump lose support when polled against the major third parties, but Biden still wins.

00:02:09.000 Rich, what's going on here?

00:02:10.000 Let me, first of all, thanks for having me, Charlie.

00:02:12.000 Let me preface this with like the Fox News has the worst political analyst ever.

00:02:17.000 The margin shrunk when you added the third parties.

00:02:19.000 And I'm not even saying I agree with the analysis or what the poll said, but listen, folks, you know, aggregates are better for a reason.

00:02:28.000 There have been, you know, some polls, obviously, they're not all created equal.

00:02:33.000 Quinnipiak, list, they did all right in the midterms.

00:02:37.000 They've had a rough go.

00:02:39.000 And presidential elections are a lot different to poll than midterms.

00:02:43.000 You're talking about a lot more people, and that's sometimes a little bit tricky.

00:02:47.000 There's some things in that poll, Charlie, that jumped right out at me.

00:02:50.000 You know, the white vote is ridiculous and unbelievable, the participation among Republicans, and we don't wait for party ID, but we make sure all our other demographics when we do rake weight are representative. 0.78

00:03:03.000 And that gives us the party identification. 0.94

00:03:06.000 But in that particular poll, there are fewer Republicans who voted in 08, Charlie.

00:03:10.000 I mean, there's a lot, honestly, there's a lot wrong with that poll.

00:03:13.000 And then obviously, when you hit those third-party candidates, it tightened the margin.

00:03:17.000 So Fox couldn't wait to jump on this.

00:03:19.000 Aggregates, there's always going, it could be an outlier.

00:03:23.000 Could not be, but it is right now in the aggregate.

00:03:27.000 And, you know, the forces of Haley and Murdoch are going to be dying to jump on a poll that's an outlier at this point.

00:03:33.000 So, so, you know, Rich, I want to just, I'm the, I'm the caution guy because I looked at this poll here, Bloomberg Morning Consult, Trump up three in Arizona, five in Michigan, ten in North Carolina.

00:03:43.000 Weird stuff there, too.

00:03:44.000 Five in Wisconsin, three in Pennsylvania, eight in Nevada, eight in Georgia.

00:03:48.000 I don't believe it.

00:03:49.000 I'll be honest, Rich.

00:03:50.000 Yeah, I don't believe it.

00:03:51.000 I think that if Trump were to be up, it'd be one or two points.

00:03:54.000 I don't think we've seen the deployment of all of Biden's money.

00:03:58.000 What is the current?

00:03:59.000 Forget all this other nonsense.

00:04:00.000 What is the Rich Barris big data poll state of the race?

00:04:03.000 It's going to be a close election.

00:04:05.000 Trump is a favor, is favored right now.

00:04:08.000 I don't think anybody can seriously argue he's not a slight favorite.

00:04:11.000 However, you and I know this is the modern world.

00:04:15.000 This is modern American elections.

00:04:17.000 They will be close.

00:04:18.000 And the impact of third-party candidates, you and I have talked a lot about this over the last, what, six, eight months.

00:04:24.000 I do not think that it's defined clearly by a national poll.

00:04:27.000 When we get into states like Pennsylvania, RFK clearly hurts Donald Trump in multiple polls we've conducted there now.

00:04:34.000 In other states, it looks like it may help him a little bit, but it is not at all decided.

00:04:39.000 Listen, the bottom line is: look at how much Joe Biden raised last quarter, Charlie.

00:04:43.000 He raised $100 million.

00:04:45.000 Republicans in this pointless primary, I'm sorry, it's just reality and I deal with strategy.

00:04:50.000 Have spent more than one-third now almost.

00:04:52.000 And by the time it's done, it'll be more than this of Mitt Romney's entire budget against Barack Obama in 2012.

00:04:59.000 Not the primary budget, not just the general election budget, everything.

00:05:04.000 And Joe Biden is raising money now hand over fist, and they will kick this vote gathering into high gear.

00:05:10.000 They're not going to just, you know, let it go.

00:05:13.000 They have a template.

00:05:14.000 They know how to chase votes.

00:05:15.000 They're going to chase him, Charlie.

00:05:17.000 Yeah.

00:05:17.000 They're going to.

00:05:18.000 It's closer.

00:05:19.000 So let's talk about the third party stuff.

00:05:21.000 Just does Trump need to start to go negative on RFK?

00:05:24.000 Does he need to kind of run a two-part race, realizing he has two types of opponents?

00:05:29.000 Do you think, and where currently, with the actual data you trust, is a majority of what RFK is pulling from?

00:05:36.000 Yeah, I would say wait still for two reasons.

00:05:40.000 Well, one reason particularly.

00:05:41.000 We don't know what states fully yet he's going to be on the ballot.

00:05:45.000 That's why he's now running to the Libertarian Party, trying to take that away from Lars Mapstead so he could use their infrastructure.

00:05:51.000 We'll see how that goes because I think the line of attack is different if he does end up on the Libertarian ballot, you know, ticket.

00:05:58.000 Charlie, I think that you're talking about a different line of attack.

00:06:02.000 But here's why I've been on the side of RFK hurts Trump more than helps him for a while now, even though our national polling suggested it might help Trump in the popular vote a little bit.

00:06:15.000 The bottom line is where this election will be won in the states where it matters, they are disproportionately non-college, white working class.

00:06:24.000 They have an outside say in the electorate. 1.00

00:06:26.000 You know, this educated volume wine-drinking mom is not coming back. 1.00

00:06:31.000 It doesn't matter if Trump's the nominee or Nikki Haley's the nominee. 0.99

00:06:34.000 The people who are voting for Nikki in the primary now will vote for Joe Biden in the general election.

00:06:40.000 We've interviewed thousands of them at this point.

00:06:40.000 We know this.

00:06:44.000 The votes that RFK is getting are coming from lower propensity non-college voters.

00:06:50.000 Bottom line, that's a problem for Donald Trump.

00:06:54.000 That's it.

00:06:54.000 So, you know, I know that it's gone back and forth here, man.

00:06:58.000 But if you add West and Stein and everybody else to the ballot, then it's a bit of a different story.

00:07:04.000 But right now, you may not be able to do that because RFK may take Lars Mapstead off of that equation.

00:07:10.000 So who is the favorite for libertarians?

00:07:12.000 People don't know who I'm talking about.

00:07:13.000 But, you know, with just RFK, it hurts Trump.

00:07:17.000 It hurts Trump.

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00:09:16.000 So, so, Rich, just look, let's pretend all the polls were put aside.

00:09:20.000 And if you were just looking analytically at which side has a better infrastructure, money, the boring stuff, cash on hands, who has the advantage?

00:09:31.000 And what does Trump need to do to improve his standing?

00:09:35.000 Democrats have the advantage, hands down.

00:09:37.000 They do. 0.86

00:09:38.000 They have the House is raising money hand over fist.

00:09:41.000 The Republican Party has wasted their time with the RNC.

00:09:44.000 I'm sorry.

00:09:45.000 Democrats do not centralize things the way that Republicans in the modern era have decided to centralize.

00:09:53.000 They need to spend more of, you know, they need to stop spending money on the primary.

00:09:59.000 I'm sorry, but that's number one.

00:10:00.000 I'm not saying he can do that right now, but if Republicans were smart, they would do that.

00:10:05.000 They are way behind.

00:10:06.000 They need to go, Charlie.

00:10:07.000 There are two groups of voters that they need to target.

00:10:10.000 There's obviously the lower propensity or what we call unlikely voter, which is, again, in this latest round of polls, you can see that Trump is even in the Minnesota poll that just came out from Survey USA.

00:10:22.000 It's close.

00:10:23.000 Biden is doing terrible in that state.

00:10:25.000 He should be winning it easily.

00:10:27.000 Trump is only that close because the unlikely voter is double digits for Trump.

00:10:32.000 He's got to get them out.

00:10:33.000 And there are many ways that that can be done, but all of which cost money.

00:10:38.000 And then, of course, there's a wealth of voters who are not registered.

00:10:42.000 I mean, Trump does even better in the adult samples.

00:10:46.000 You know, we've talked about these different groups before.

00:10:48.000 You know, there are different ways to target them.

00:10:50.000 You have people like Scott Pressler out there going to gun shows.

00:10:54.000 I mean, that's certainly the way to do it.

00:10:56.000 But there's a lot, this huge disparity.

00:11:00.000 There's a huge gap between Republicans and their infrastructure, their ability to get people out, and what Democrats have.

00:11:08.000 It's massive. 0.99

00:11:08.000 We could spend an entire show talking about this, not to mention what Nikki Haley is doing right now is going to wind up costing the party millions and millions of dollars. 0.99

00:11:18.000 The data is going to be dirty. 1.00

00:11:20.000 That's going to cost a fortune to clean up.

00:11:22.000 Some of the, why is that? 0.95

00:11:24.000 I mean, I've talked about this a little bit, but this effort to get Democrats and behavioral Democrats who are independents to go vote for her in a primary for data guys like us is going to throw a signal.

00:11:35.000 It's going to add an attribute to a voter's record that, oh, that's a Republican primary voter.

00:11:40.000 So go out and try to get them in the general election.

00:11:42.000 And you're going to have walkers with doors slammed in their face.

00:11:44.000 You're going to have worthless mailers sent out, you know, digital targeting that's completely useless.

00:11:51.000 There's a massive problem right now with the way Republicans are moving forward.

00:11:54.000 And they don't have time to clean this up really soon.

00:11:58.000 They got to get it together like yesterday.

00:12:02.000 So can you just, and you know where my opinion is on this, but I mean, how serious is this RNC problem, Rich?

00:12:08.000 The worst fundraising total since 1993, inflation adjusted.

00:12:12.000 That's a 30-year low.

00:12:13.000 What's going on here?

00:12:15.000 It's bad.

00:12:16.000 This is, again, because Republicans, too, have, for the most part, in the modern era, especially post-Pribus, but they always were like this.

00:12:25.000 They chose to somewhat centralize their party infrastructure.

00:12:30.000 And the Democrats, again, they don't do that.

00:12:33.000 So you have the DCC doing their thing.

00:12:36.000 You have third-party groups doing their thing.

00:12:38.000 The DNC is basically has been broke for a while.

00:12:41.000 They just don't care because they don't operate that much.

00:12:44.000 Because Republicans, all the Rolodexes, Charlie, all the campaign consultants, I mean, the vultures, you know, look at how much they spent on consultants.

00:12:52.000 Did you see that report the other day?

00:12:54.000 I did.

00:12:54.000 It's outrageous.

00:12:55.000 Or flowers.

00:12:56.000 Charlie, 70,000 on flowers.

00:12:59.000 Unbelievable.

00:13:00.000 They spent millions of dollars to have a seat at the table while there were certain AI tools being developed.

00:13:06.000 I got that seat for free just because they wanted input.

00:13:10.000 I mean, it's just incredible how the Republican Party does this stuff.

00:13:14.000 It is really bad.

00:13:15.000 And this is what I worry about.

00:13:17.000 You know, come November, you know, the Wednesday after the election, Trump wins.

00:13:22.000 Let's say this scenario plays out.

00:13:24.000 Turnout is big.

00:13:26.000 You know, they're going to want to take credit for that, Charlie.

00:13:28.000 Like they pulled themselves out of the doldrum or something at the last minute.

00:13:32.000 Meanwhile, you know, and I know that it would have been the work of people that are not even in front of the camera that would do it.

00:13:40.000 And plus, Trump is a turnout machine.

00:13:41.000 But Trump has got one more election under his belt, Charlie.

00:13:44.000 When he's gone, all of these opportunities to get all of this infrastructure and these voters that we are talking about will be gone.

00:13:51.000 So they have to turn, they have to wipe this ship quick.

00:13:57.000 Hey, everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

00:13:58.000 What an unbelievable start to 2024.

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00:15:00.000 So, Rich, talk about the turnout machine that Trump is.

00:15:06.000 Can it forgive?

00:15:07.000 Basically, basically, if the RNC is like kaput, can Trump make up for that? 0.92

00:15:13.000 Well, we saw him do it in 2016.

00:15:16.000 And we're watching these primaries, even with low turnout in Iowa, Charlie.

00:15:21.000 He still got an enormous number of votes himself.

00:15:24.000 He broke records.

00:15:25.000 And then in New Hampshire, with $37 million spent trying to get Democrats to cross over, any normal person would have been beaten probably, or very, they would have tightened it to a lot closer than it was.

00:15:40.000 But again, he not only beat his own record, beat John McCain's record, then he beat Bernie's record.

00:15:45.000 12% of the entire population of New Hampshire, not voter, the entire population of New Hampshire voted for Donald Trump in the primary, which is crazy.

00:15:55.000 More than 12.

00:15:57.000 But, you know, this is, again, this is not 2016.

00:16:00.000 So it's like, do you want to leave that up to chance?

00:16:05.000 He's going to drive out a massive number of people.

00:16:08.000 But when we study unlikely voters, those who tell us, you know what, I'm just, I'm done with the process.

00:16:15.000 Only Donald Trump is cited when we ask them who could motivate you to go out to vote.

00:16:20.000 But there's still only about, it's a little less than 40% that look to be really pushable with, you know, on their own, that it can, that it can happen organically.

00:16:31.000 The rest, they need to be nudged hard.

00:16:35.000 So again, why would you leave that up to chance, Charlie?

00:16:38.000 You know, I mean, I guess it's a point flip, but why?

00:16:42.000 Why would you do it?

00:16:43.000 And imagine, Rich, machine plus Trump.

00:16:46.000 If there was a machinery plus the Trump get out the vote, I mean, what would that, what would that mean, Rich?

00:16:51.000 You would have an Obama-style wave, wouldn't you?

00:16:54.000 It would.

00:16:55.000 And forget about worrying about, you know, what happened last time, Charlie.

00:16:59.000 We'd be, I was talking to somebody about this at Decision Desk actually recently.

00:17:05.000 This would be like an early night, you know, relatively early night.

00:17:09.000 We could all probably pack it in at like 1130 because we know how many votes are potentially left out and whether or not anyone would be able to win that much to make up the ground.

00:17:21.000 Because of course, there will be delays as usual, but that wouldn't matter.

00:17:25.000 You know, everyone feels, everyone pretends or people have this like phony idea that Democrats can just keep like adding infinitely.

00:17:33.000 And that's, you know, how they pull these things off.

00:17:36.000 That's not true.

00:17:37.000 It's that you're, the more you get out there to vote, the less they have to work with.

00:17:43.000 If I'm saying that, you know, I know it's a bit of code, but if I'm saying that accurately enough for people to understand, but Charlie, this would be a rout, Charlie, if they could get these people out.

00:17:56.000 And I'm not alone in this.

00:17:57.000 Look at Premise.

00:17:58.000 Everybody's backed this up with this.

00:18:00.000 Suffolk University.

00:18:02.000 This would be over in hours.

00:18:04.000 Last time Trump is running for president, Republicans are going to be like, where did all of our voters go if you don't fix the machinery?

00:18:11.000 All right, Rich, vice presidential candidates.

00:18:14.000 Typically the rule is that VP candidates don't do much.

00:18:17.000 Who on the roster does something?

00:18:19.000 Who could be the negative?

00:18:20.000 I would put Nikki Haley.

00:18:21.000 But if you, Rich Barris, with everything you have at your disposal, all the numbers, all the experience, all the wisdom, all the strategy, who should Donald Trump pick?

00:18:30.000 I don't believe in these arguments, regional compensation.

00:18:36.000 You're from the Northeast.

00:18:37.000 So pick somebody from the Midwest.

00:18:39.000 I just, I don't buy that stuff.

00:18:41.000 I think that you have to find somebody who fits the right moment.

00:18:46.000 Like you have each candidate has a presidential justification.

00:18:50.000 They need that to win the presidency.

00:18:52.000 And you need somebody that compensates that.

00:18:55.000 But with all that being said, Trump's decision is much harder this year, Charlie, because he needs like an insurance policy.

00:19:02.000 He picks somebody like Nikki Haley, no matter what argument you make that it'll help you electorally.

00:19:07.000 And I'm not sure it would, but no matter what argument you make, goes out the window anyway.

00:19:12.000 Because if the, you know, the establishment didn't wage a coup to remove him and install her within three months, I'd be shocked.

00:19:19.000 And if that failed, then I would worry far more about something else happening.

00:19:25.000 But rest assured, they would make sure Nikki Hilly is the president one way, shape, or form.

00:19:29.000 So that with that in mind, it's tough.

00:19:31.000 I think in the election we're in and the way people are feeling, he's got to throw a bomb.

00:19:36.000 And by a bomb, I mean, somebody like Vivek or a Tucker, I love Ron Johnson.

00:19:43.000 Do, but he needs a he needs a bomb, Charlie.

00:19:46.000 And he needs somebody who the administrative state is going to fear just as much as him, if not more so.

00:19:54.000 And there are a lot of great names in there.

00:19:56.000 So I don't mean to leave anybody out, but it's a tough call this year.

00:19:59.000 The only downside to Ron Johnson is you potentially lose a Senate through that Senate.

00:20:03.000 Which, again, if you if you look at the sad story of Jeff Sessions, it's not a good, that's not a good precedent.

00:20:10.000 Scott Walker, if he would be willing to do it, you know, if you could approach Scott Walker and say, hey, Scott, would you do it?

00:20:16.000 You know, but even then, you'd have to.

00:20:18.000 Yeah.

00:20:19.000 Yeah.

00:20:19.000 Even then, you'd have to wait, as you know.

00:20:21.000 So it's risky.

00:20:23.000 But I really think that voters, especially Republicans right now, Charlie, they're voting on the border.

00:20:29.000 They're voting, of course, on the economy.

00:20:31.000 And then with this all underlying tone that the administrative state is dangerous, we're in a lot of trouble.

00:20:36.000 Even Republicans cite threats to democracy now, but it just means something different to them than when you ask a liberal and they say it.

00:20:44.000 And I think this underlying tone that's beneath the surface gives him this unique ability to pick somebody that is just uncharacter, you know, how could it be unconventional?

00:20:55.000 Let me put it that way.

00:20:56.000 Last question, Rich.

00:20:58.000 And this is the New York Times, CNN, they have this story every couple of days.

00:21:01.000 But tell me the truth of the matter.

00:21:03.000 If Donald Trump is convicted before election day, how does that play in?

00:21:07.000 Yeah, first of all, people have that baked in their heads.

00:21:13.000 It's like baked in the cake and it's in their heads when you're asking them those questions.

00:21:17.000 When a pollster then delivers that question specifically, depending on the wording they use, it's not an accurate gauge.

00:21:29.000 They know what answer is the right answer, Charlie, that they know you as a pollster you want them to give.

00:21:37.000 I really don't think that that will have the impact that some people argue.

00:21:41.000 They're praying that that's the case, and that's why they're rushing for it because they, and I know a lot of Democrats who think that's their Hail Mary.

00:21:49.000 That's their only way that they're going to hold on this year.

00:21:52.000 But when it comes down to it, presidential elections, most of the time, this time there'll be third parties, but it won't be that much different.

00:21:59.000 There'll be A-B tests, and people will have to decide whether or not they're going to pick the guy who is prosecuting his opponent, who also served as president.

00:22:09.000 And when he did, their lives were better, or vice versa.

00:22:13.000 So I really do think that we're in that kind of a political environment, Charlie.

00:22:20.000 Like if you were to have convict Joe Biden of something, 20% of Democrats still probably are not going to vote for the Republican, even if you convicted Joe Biden.

00:22:30.000 And by the way, those questions don't capture the full scope of what voters are dealing with.

00:22:35.000 So it won't just be about Donald Trump being convicted.

00:22:39.000 If he is, it'll be appealed.

00:22:41.000 And then, you know, Fannie Will, will it be in Georgia where Fannie Willis has her own problems?

00:22:45.000 It's a misleading question.

00:22:47.000 It is.

00:22:47.000 Rich Barris, big data poll.

00:22:49.000 Excellent work.

00:22:49.000 Thank you so much.

00:22:50.000 Thanks, Charlie.

00:22:51.000 All the best, buddy.

00:22:52.000 Thanks so much for listening.

00:22:53.000 Everybody, email us as alwaysfreedom at charliekirk.com.

00:22:56.000 Thank you so much for listening and God bless.

00:22:59.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.

The Charlie Kirk Show - February 02, 2024

Who Is Really Up In the 2024 Polls?

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