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00:01:43.000This poll does have Haley doing better against Biden than Trump.
00:01:48.000She has got him, according to Quinnipiak, by five, 47 to 42 nationally.
00:01:52.000And we may also have an answer to the question: who do third-party candidates hurt?
00:01:58.000Ultimately, according to this poll, they hurt Trump because both Biden and Trump lose support when polled against the major third parties, but Biden still wins.
00:02:39.000And presidential elections are a lot different to poll than midterms.
00:02:43.000You're talking about a lot more people, and that's sometimes a little bit tricky.
00:02:47.000There's some things in that poll, Charlie, that jumped right out at me.
00:02:50.000You know, the white vote is ridiculous and unbelievable, the participation among Republicans, and we don't wait for party ID, but we make sure all our other demographics when we do rake weight are representative.
00:03:03.000And that gives us the party identification.
00:03:06.000But in that particular poll, there are fewer Republicans who voted in 08, Charlie.
00:03:10.000I mean, there's a lot, honestly, there's a lot wrong with that poll.
00:03:13.000And then obviously, when you hit those third-party candidates, it tightened the margin.
00:03:19.000Aggregates, there's always going, it could be an outlier.
00:03:23.000Could not be, but it is right now in the aggregate.
00:03:27.000And, you know, the forces of Haley and Murdoch are going to be dying to jump on a poll that's an outlier at this point.
00:03:33.000So, so, you know, Rich, I want to just, I'm the, I'm the caution guy because I looked at this poll here, Bloomberg Morning Consult, Trump up three in Arizona, five in Michigan, ten in North Carolina.
00:05:41.000We don't know what states fully yet he's going to be on the ballot.
00:05:45.000That's why he's now running to the Libertarian Party, trying to take that away from Lars Mapstead so he could use their infrastructure.
00:05:51.000We'll see how that goes because I think the line of attack is different if he does end up on the Libertarian ballot, you know, ticket.
00:05:58.000Charlie, I think that you're talking about a different line of attack.
00:06:02.000But here's why I've been on the side of RFK hurts Trump more than helps him for a while now, even though our national polling suggested it might help Trump in the popular vote a little bit.
00:06:15.000The bottom line is where this election will be won in the states where it matters, they are disproportionately non-college, white working class.
00:06:24.000They have an outside say in the electorate.
00:06:26.000You know, this educated volume wine-drinking mom is not coming back.
00:06:31.000It doesn't matter if Trump's the nominee or Nikki Haley's the nominee.
00:06:34.000The people who are voting for Nikki in the primary now will vote for Joe Biden in the general election.
00:06:40.000We've interviewed thousands of them at this point.
00:07:21.000Okay, Kirk fans, I need you to stop and pay attention to this.
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00:08:07.000I'm thankful that Charlie Kirk recommended this to his listeners.
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00:09:16.000So, so, Rich, just look, let's pretend all the polls were put aside.
00:09:20.000And if you were just looking analytically at which side has a better infrastructure, money, the boring stuff, cash on hands, who has the advantage?
00:09:31.000And what does Trump need to do to improve his standing?
00:09:35.000Democrats have the advantage, hands down.
00:10:07.000There are two groups of voters that they need to target.
00:10:10.000There's obviously the lower propensity or what we call unlikely voter, which is, again, in this latest round of polls, you can see that Trump is even in the Minnesota poll that just came out from Survey USA.
00:11:08.000We could spend an entire show talking about this, not to mention what Nikki Haley is doing right now is going to wind up costing the party millions and millions of dollars.
00:11:24.000I mean, I've talked about this a little bit, but this effort to get Democrats and behavioral Democrats who are independents to go vote for her in a primary for data guys like us is going to throw a signal.
00:11:35.000It's going to add an attribute to a voter's record that, oh, that's a Republican primary voter.
00:11:40.000So go out and try to get them in the general election.
00:11:42.000And you're going to have walkers with doors slammed in their face.
00:11:44.000You're going to have worthless mailers sent out, you know, digital targeting that's completely useless.
00:11:51.000There's a massive problem right now with the way Republicans are moving forward.
00:11:54.000And they don't have time to clean this up really soon.
00:11:58.000They got to get it together like yesterday.
00:12:02.000So can you just, and you know where my opinion is on this, but I mean, how serious is this RNC problem, Rich?
00:12:08.000The worst fundraising total since 1993, inflation adjusted.
00:12:16.000This is, again, because Republicans, too, have, for the most part, in the modern era, especially post-Pribus, but they always were like this.
00:12:25.000They chose to somewhat centralize their party infrastructure.
00:12:30.000And the Democrats, again, they don't do that.
00:12:33.000So you have the DCC doing their thing.
00:12:36.000You have third-party groups doing their thing.
00:12:38.000The DNC is basically has been broke for a while.
00:12:41.000They just don't care because they don't operate that much.
00:12:44.000Because Republicans, all the Rolodexes, Charlie, all the campaign consultants, I mean, the vultures, you know, look at how much they spent on consultants.
00:12:52.000Did you see that report the other day?
00:14:00.000We had last month saving babies with pre-born by providing ultrasounds.
00:14:04.000And we're doing again this year what we did last year.
00:14:06.000We're going to stand for life because remaining silent in the face of the most radically pro-death administration is not an option.
00:14:11.000As Sir Edmund Burke said, the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing, and we're not going to do nothing.
00:14:17.000Your gift to pre-born will give a girl the truth about what's happening in her body so that she can make the right choice.
00:15:25.000And then in New Hampshire, with $37 million spent trying to get Democrats to cross over, any normal person would have been beaten probably, or very, they would have tightened it to a lot closer than it was.
00:15:40.000But again, he not only beat his own record, beat John McCain's record, then he beat Bernie's record.
00:15:45.00012% of the entire population of New Hampshire, not voter, the entire population of New Hampshire voted for Donald Trump in the primary, which is crazy.
00:15:57.000But, you know, this is, again, this is not 2016.
00:16:00.000So it's like, do you want to leave that up to chance?
00:16:05.000He's going to drive out a massive number of people.
00:16:08.000But when we study unlikely voters, those who tell us, you know what, I'm just, I'm done with the process.
00:16:15.000Only Donald Trump is cited when we ask them who could motivate you to go out to vote.
00:16:20.000But there's still only about, it's a little less than 40% that look to be really pushable with, you know, on their own, that it can, that it can happen organically.
00:16:31.000The rest, they need to be nudged hard.
00:16:35.000So again, why would you leave that up to chance, Charlie?
00:16:38.000You know, I mean, I guess it's a point flip, but why?
00:16:55.000And forget about worrying about, you know, what happened last time, Charlie.
00:16:59.000We'd be, I was talking to somebody about this at Decision Desk actually recently.
00:17:05.000This would be like an early night, you know, relatively early night.
00:17:09.000We could all probably pack it in at like 1130 because we know how many votes are potentially left out and whether or not anyone would be able to win that much to make up the ground.
00:17:21.000Because of course, there will be delays as usual, but that wouldn't matter.
00:17:25.000You know, everyone feels, everyone pretends or people have this like phony idea that Democrats can just keep like adding infinitely.
00:17:33.000And that's, you know, how they pull these things off.
00:17:37.000It's that you're, the more you get out there to vote, the less they have to work with.
00:17:43.000If I'm saying that, you know, I know it's a bit of code, but if I'm saying that accurately enough for people to understand, but Charlie, this would be a rout, Charlie, if they could get these people out.
00:18:21.000But if you, Rich Barris, with everything you have at your disposal, all the numbers, all the experience, all the wisdom, all the strategy, who should Donald Trump pick?
00:18:30.000I don't believe in these arguments, regional compensation.
00:20:23.000But I really think that voters, especially Republicans right now, Charlie, they're voting on the border.
00:20:29.000They're voting, of course, on the economy.
00:20:31.000And then with this all underlying tone that the administrative state is dangerous, we're in a lot of trouble.
00:20:36.000Even Republicans cite threats to democracy now, but it just means something different to them than when you ask a liberal and they say it.
00:20:44.000And I think this underlying tone that's beneath the surface gives him this unique ability to pick somebody that is just uncharacter, you know, how could it be unconventional?
00:21:03.000If Donald Trump is convicted before election day, how does that play in?
00:21:07.000Yeah, first of all, people have that baked in their heads.
00:21:13.000It's like baked in the cake and it's in their heads when you're asking them those questions.
00:21:17.000When a pollster then delivers that question specifically, depending on the wording they use, it's not an accurate gauge.
00:21:29.000They know what answer is the right answer, Charlie, that they know you as a pollster you want them to give.
00:21:37.000I really don't think that that will have the impact that some people argue.
00:21:41.000They're praying that that's the case, and that's why they're rushing for it because they, and I know a lot of Democrats who think that's their Hail Mary.
00:21:49.000That's their only way that they're going to hold on this year.
00:21:52.000But when it comes down to it, presidential elections, most of the time, this time there'll be third parties, but it won't be that much different.
00:21:59.000There'll be A-B tests, and people will have to decide whether or not they're going to pick the guy who is prosecuting his opponent, who also served as president.
00:22:09.000And when he did, their lives were better, or vice versa.
00:22:13.000So I really do think that we're in that kind of a political environment, Charlie.
00:22:20.000Like if you were to have convict Joe Biden of something, 20% of Democrats still probably are not going to vote for the Republican, even if you convicted Joe Biden.
00:22:30.000And by the way, those questions don't capture the full scope of what voters are dealing with.
00:22:35.000So it won't just be about Donald Trump being convicted.