The Charlie Kirk Show - April 05, 2024


Why Are Young Men Moving To The Right?


Episode Stats


Length

35 minutes

Words per minute

180.17078

Word count

6,330

Sentence count

554

Harmful content

Misogyny

7

sentences flagged

Toxicity

14

sentences flagged

Hate speech

37

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Why are more and more young men becoming conservative? Why is this happening? What are the reasons why so many young men are turning to the right? What is the role of young men in the current political climate? Is it because of hyper-feminization, political correctness, and a lack of opportunities?

Transcript

Transcripts from "The Charlie Kirk Show" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, why are men becoming conservatives?
00:00:04.000 Rich Barris goes to the latest states with us.
00:00:06.000 The impact of RFK, Cornell West, Jill Stein, and No Labels officially has suspended its efforts to draft a presidential candidate.
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00:00:24.000 Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:00:27.000 That is freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:00:31.000 And if you become a member, you are able to listen to every episode advertiser-free.
00:00:34.000 So check it out right now.
00:00:36.000 Members.charlikirk.com.
00:00:39.000 Buckle up, everybody.
00:00:40.000 Here we go.
00:00:41.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.
00:00:43.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.
00:00:45.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.
00:00:48.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.
00:00:51.000 I want to thank Charlie.
00:00:52.000 He's an incredible guy.
00:00:53.000 His spirit, his love of this country.
00:00:55.000 He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.
00:01:01.000 Turning point USA.
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00:01:39.000 There's something happening around the world that is going to impact the 2024 election.
00:01:43.000 I saw it last evening at the University of Kansas.
00:01:48.000 The amount of young men that are becoming right-wingers is remarkable.
00:01:54.000 What is driving this?
00:01:57.000 Well, first of all, we have seen the hyper-feminization of the American culture.
00:02:03.000 We have seen political correctness, where if you use the wrong pronoun, you could lose your job.
00:02:10.000 We have seen it harder and harder for young men to find a suitable partner.
00:02:16.000 And marriage rates have collapsed.
00:02:18.000 Birth rates are going down dramatically.
00:02:22.000 It's harder than ever to own a home that the basic material connections that young men, that any human needs to be successful is harder than ever.
00:02:33.000 Liberalism has become this feminine, suffocating dictatorship of fake niceness.
00:02:40.000 Young men, especially young white men, are explicitly discriminated against constantly.
00:02:47.000 There was a TikTok video somebody sent me that I think was perfect the way that he put this together.
00:02:52.000 The question is, well, what's going on with young men?
00:02:55.000 What's happening with them?
00:02:56.000 Let's play cut 27, please. 0.81
00:02:59.000 Adult white males between the ages of, say, 18 and 25 to 30. 0.99
00:03:03.000 The economy sucks. 0.95
00:03:04.000 You're probably never going to buy a house. 1.00
00:03:05.000 Your degree is useless and left you in mountains of debt.
00:03:08.000 You're nowhere near capable of providing for a wife and kids. 0.97
00:03:10.000 And you can't imagine yourself settling down with any of the women in your age bracket anyway because Disney princess programming and feminism has left them fundamentally unwifable. 0.97
00:03:17.000 You've grown up in a culture which has celebrated every other form of identity besides you and in exact proportion to how much they're not you to the point that now schools and companies can hire based on that metric. 0.62
00:03:27.000 All the while being told you can't complain or notice any of it because of how privileged you are.
00:03:31.000 And if you don't know how privileged you are, it's because of your privilege.
00:03:33.000 Even though you're basically a debt slave with minimal hope of a financial and familial future because your economy and culture has abandoned you.
00:03:39.000 So a lot of dudes just checked out and started like smoking weed and playing video games.
00:03:42.000 Some of the other ones went to countries where they like white people and men, like Thailand, I guess.
00:03:47.000 And some of them are like, you know what, this is a good challenge. 0.92
00:03:48.000 None of it makes sense.
00:03:49.000 It's all going to shoot.
00:03:51.000 But f it, I want a big house. 1.00
00:03:52.000 And if you come on my land, I'm going to shoot you with guns. 1.00
00:03:54.000 I want a bunch of kids and a wife turning butter. 1.00
00:03:56.000 I'm going to make it happen, you f.
00:03:58.000 That energy.
00:03:59.000 But I want to zero in on one thing that he said is young men checking out.
00:04:02.000 We have record amounts of young men that are checking out and kind of just doing a passive job, smoking weed, doing video games.
00:04:09.000 The culture is actively antagonistic to young men. 0.93
00:04:13.000 Women are openly encouraged to be unpleasant. 1.00
00:04:17.000 Great heroes of history are dismissed as dead white men. 0.85
00:04:22.000 School is set up to encourage girls over boys from the literature selections to how classrooms are actually configured.
00:04:31.000 Men want to be heroic and great.
00:04:35.000 Young men are actively discouraged against.
00:04:38.000 So they check out.
00:04:39.000 The political divide is remarkable.
00:04:42.000 The so-called Gen Z generation, roughly those between 12 and 27, have a lot in common.
00:04:48.000 Environmental concerns, formative years shaped by a global recession pandemic.
00:04:51.000 But there appears to be one striking and widening divide, gender.
00:04:56.000 Analysis by the FT of polling data finds Gen Z men increasingly identify as more conservative and women as more liberal.
00:05:04.000 In the United States, women age 18 to 30 are now 30% more liberal than of the same age. 0.76
00:05:09.000 A similar trend exists in South Korea, Germany, the UK, China, Tunisia, and Poland.
00:05:13.000 This is worldwide.
00:05:14.000 This is global.
00:05:16.000 So what is the driving force behind this?
00:05:19.000 This is a positive trend.
00:05:23.000 It's a positive trend because it is rooted, first and foremost, in young men taking ownership of their country, ownership of their life.
00:05:37.000 Left-wing politics is inherently disempowering.
00:05:42.000 Right-wing politics is about you have to improve your life, get married, have children, own property.
00:05:49.000 And it is rebellious.
00:05:50.000 In fact, it requires a little bit of a disagreeable, higher testosterone attitude to be on the right than to be on the left and say, yeah, you know, everything's racist, everything's terrible.
00:06:01.000 Understand what young men see on the cultural horizon.
00:06:05.000 Nothing is considered worse by the press than some institution being, quote, overwhelmingly white and male. 0.66
00:06:11.000 Yet if you look at any institution like that, it's probably something successful and impressive. 0.97
00:06:17.000 Oh, wow, airline pilots are too white and too male. 0.55
00:06:20.000 I guess we have too many safe landings at O'Hare International Airport. 0.98
00:06:24.000 Oh, wow, Silicon Valley is too white and too male. 0.76
00:06:27.000 Too bad that we have too many innovative companies. 0.83
00:06:30.000 And young men, especially young white men, but this transcends all racial lines.
00:06:34.000 The young men that are coming to our turning point events that are on fire for this right-wing revolution is all different backgrounds.
00:06:41.000 It's black, it's Hispanic.
00:06:42.000 And there is a fair amount of young women that are coming along too.
00:06:45.000 In fact, a lesser reported figure, my team briefed me on this this morning as we were getting ready for a turning point action investor presentation.
00:06:53.000 We have the best team at Turning Point.
00:06:54.000 They do an unbelievable job.
00:06:56.000 And one of the very smart young ladies that works for us there, she said, Charlie, do you know that young women are four points less liberal this year than they were in 2020?
00:07:09.000 She said, look, they're still overwhelmingly liberal, but they've actually moved four points less liberal in the last four years.
00:07:15.000 I said, that's incredible.
00:07:16.000 And I totally believe it because maybe they got married.
00:07:20.000 When you get married, you become less liberal.
00:07:23.000 When you have a family, you become significant.
00:07:25.000 The data is unbelievable.
00:07:26.000 You become significantly less liberal.
00:07:30.000 And we want a country.
00:07:31.000 We want a country with borders.
00:07:33.000 We want a country that has standards.
00:07:38.000 One leader that I think articulates this better than almost anybody else is Vivek Ramaswamy.
00:07:44.000 Vivek is coming.
00:07:45.000 I'm going to speak at our investor retreat coming up.
00:07:48.000 I don't know about you, but I believe that we haven't heard enough from Vivek recently.
00:07:51.000 I think we need to deploy Vivek out there.
00:07:53.000 We have to get Vivek.
00:07:54.000 Think Turning Point can do that in addition to trying to win an electoral vote and hiring ballot chasers and two high school college campuses, Blexit, Turning Point Academy, TPSA Faith.
00:08:04.000 I'm a big Vivek fan.
00:08:05.000 Let's play Cut 74, please.
00:08:07.000 If you have had the largest mass illegal migration into this country in American history, then it stands to reason, Larry, that we require the largest mass deportation in American history as well.
00:08:18.000 And the trap that somehow the media has led the public to believe, and I think we had to explain to the public what's going on, is this is not compassion.
00:08:25.000 This is cruelty.
00:08:26.000 It is cruelty to Americans. 1.00
00:08:28.000 It is cruelty to many of the Hispanic communities in America who came legally to this country, who are suffering the scourge of crime and other effects of that illegal mass migration. 1.00
00:08:38.000 Illegal mass migration. 0.79
00:08:39.000 Vivek continues in Cut 75. 0.71
00:08:42.000 It's people in inner cities that are suffering, black, white, brown, and everything in between, Democrat and Republican included. 0.92
00:08:49.000 The south side of Chicago converting local high schools into encampments for those illegal migrants. 0.95
00:08:55.000 It is a rejection of American principles. 0.99
00:08:57.000 We're a nation founded on the rule of law.
00:08:59.000 And so I don't think that this is cruel.
00:09:00.000 I think it is the compassionate thing to do, both for Americans and to stand for the rule of law.
00:09:05.000 It's logical. 0.91
00:09:07.000 End those incentives to be here illegally.
00:09:09.000 Stop funding the sanctuary cities. 0.97
00:09:11.000 Stop funding Central America until they stop the northward flow of migrants.
00:09:15.000 I think Vivek Ramaswamy could be one of the difference makers in this upcoming election. 0.99
00:09:20.000 I think Vivek Ramaswamy, properly deployed as a surrogate, could be excellent.
00:09:27.000 Okay, we officially now have the details about our event next week in Nebraska.
00:09:33.000 It will be this coming Tuesday at 7 p.m.
00:09:36.000 We're hosting it at a local church, the Lord of Hosts Church, in Omaha, Nebraska.
00:09:42.000 Win every vote.
00:09:43.000 Support winner. 0.78
00:09:44.000 Take all Nebraska.
00:09:45.000 tpaction.com slash rally.
00:09:47.000 That is tpaction.com/slash rally.
00:09:50.000 So check it out.
00:09:52.000 I think that you'll really appreciate attending.
00:09:55.000 And we got to keep the pressure on.
00:09:56.000 Remember, it's a three-step move that we have isolated right now.
00:09:59.000 The first step and the first thing is: number one, let's try to get this through with cloture or try to get this through in the current session.
00:10:06.000 That doesn't work, try to get a special session.
00:10:07.000 That doesn't work, do another event on the steps of the Capitol like they did for the vaccine mandate and try to force a special session.
00:10:15.000 We're not going to give up.
00:10:16.000 tpaction.com slash rally.
00:10:19.000 We're going to be there next week and we're going to be making a lot of noise.
00:10:22.000 We're going to do our best to try to bring this across the finish line, Lord willing.
00:10:29.000 Okay, Kirk fans, I need you to stop and pay attention to this.
00:10:33.000 If you deal with exhaustion, brain fog, mood swings, or food cravings, if you're constantly getting sick or simply lack the zeal you used to have in life, then I have some news for you.
00:10:42.000 While back, I found a liquid supplement called Strong Cell, and it changed my health in a very profound way.
00:10:48.000 I take it every single day.
00:10:51.000 Look, I knew I had to partner with them.
00:10:52.000 I did the research.
00:10:53.000 Google and look up online what happens when you mix NADH with CoQ10 and marine collagen.
00:10:59.000 It's simple.
00:11:00.000 Every area of your body has cells.
00:11:02.000 So if your cells are healthier, then you will also be healthier.
00:11:05.000 You don't have to take my word for it.
00:11:07.000 Listen to one of these testimonials.
00:11:08.000 After taking Strong Cell for six weeks, I found improvement in many areas, less shoulder pain, improved mental clarity, increased natural energy, and so much more.
00:11:15.000 I'm thankful that Charlie Kirk recommended this to his listeners.
00:11:18.000 Rebecca says, I absolutely love Strong Cell.
00:11:21.000 At first, I didn't think it would make much of a difference for my chronic fatigue, depression, and anxiety, but I thought I'd give it a chance.
00:11:26.000 I've tried to find depression meds for 10 years, and since you Strong Cell, I'm feeling better than I ever have on depression medication.
00:11:34.000 Customer for life, thank you, Charlie Kirk, for recommending this product.
00:11:37.000 So there it is.
00:11:38.000 You've heard from me directly and some of the users who have seen their lives changed by Strong Cell.
00:11:43.000 I personally recommend taking it every day for at least 30 days.
00:11:47.000 I take it every day before I go on the air, and it's helped me in more ways than I can even name.
00:11:51.000 Each of our bodies is very different.
00:11:52.000 So I would recommend you give the supplement at least two to three months to see the changes in your body.
00:11:58.000 Go to strongcell.com and learn more for yourself.
00:12:01.000 That's strongcell.com forward slash Charlie.
00:12:04.000 And don't forget to use discount code Charlie at checkout to get your special 20% discount for Kirk listeners.
00:12:08.000 Or you can call 888-596-0155 to order over the phone.
00:12:14.000 That is 888-596-0155, or visit strongsell.com forward slash Charlie.
00:12:24.000 I'm going to play some tape here.
00:12:26.000 We're doing the event next week in Omaha, and we're doing it at a church.
00:12:31.000 And this church has been a wonderful partner.
00:12:33.000 I've known him for a while.
00:12:34.000 He's a great guy, Pastor Hank.
00:12:36.000 There is an op at play right now talking about how Donald Trump is projecting fear and hatred into politics.
00:12:44.000 This is Jim Wallace.
00:12:46.000 Play cut 38, please.
00:12:48.000 Trump is projecting a trajectory in politics of fear, hate, and violence.
00:12:56.000 Now that's being projected onto religion.
00:12:59.000 The same thing.
00:13:00.000 So how do we overcome that fear?
00:13:02.000 Right.
00:13:03.000 How do we talk about the politics of neighbor love?
00:13:06.000 Yep, that's really what we're talking about.
00:13:08.000 That is the key.
00:13:09.000 The new book is titled The False White Gospel: Rejecting Christian Nationalism, Reclaiming True Faith, and Refounding Democracy author Jim Wallace. 0.79
00:13:18.000 The false white gospel.
00:13:22.000 They're doing everything they possibly can to prevent Christians from speaking out, to prevent Christians from engaging. 0.54
00:13:30.000 They know the power of the church.
00:13:32.000 They know the power of my friend Jack Hibbs.
00:13:35.000 They know the power of Rob McCoy.
00:13:38.000 They know the power of what a strong, confident pastor can do if they speak out biblically.
00:13:45.000 This is why we have the sequence of all these different books.
00:13:48.000 We have The Power and the Kingdom and the Glory by Tim Alberta.
00:13:52.000 The false white gospel by Jim Wallace.
00:13:55.000 Rob Reiner's film.
00:13:57.000 The slur that they use, Christian nationalists.
00:13:59.000 And I got asked the question last evening in Lawrence, Kansas.
00:14:03.000 Should we embrace the term or not?
00:14:05.000 I'm not convinced that we should.
00:14:07.000 Usually I'm going to embrace the term guy, but I think they've defined it too much.
00:14:13.000 We could have fought on it early.
00:14:14.000 And we got to be a little bit careful here.
00:14:17.000 I am both a Christian and a nationalist.
00:14:19.000 I'm not afraid of the term.
00:14:20.000 I am afraid of the connotation because I just want to win.
00:14:23.000 And the connotation, they're just trying to call you a Nazi by other means.
00:14:27.000 And I say this everywhere I go.
00:14:28.000 I say this at churches.
00:14:29.000 I say that we're Christians who love Jesus, who love America, that want a restoration of the Constitution.
00:14:29.000 I said it last night.
00:14:35.000 And that's the one thing they don't want us talking about.
00:14:38.000 They don't want the one thing that connects our movement together.
00:14:42.000 And if there was something if I could say, I know it sounds a little wonky, but I think we've got to talk about the Constitution more.
00:14:49.000 The Constitution is the greatest political document ever composed that is built on the moral and the civil law as articulated in Deuteronomy.
00:14:59.000 The Constitution has a preference on individual rights given to you by God, not by government.
00:15:04.000 And God is on the ballot in 2024, make no mistake.
00:15:08.000 The question of where do your rights come from?
00:15:11.000 The temporal or the eternal?
00:15:14.000 Do you want to live in some sort of totalitarian, satanic, globalist regime?
00:15:19.000 This document is not just a bunch of words on a piece of paper.
00:15:22.000 It is a promise.
00:15:25.000 It is a promise that our founding fathers composed based on an analysis of human nature, studying the Romans, studying the Greeks, studying the Chinese.
00:15:33.000 They realized that power concentrates quite easily.
00:15:37.000 And that human beings are broken from birth. 1.00
00:15:41.000 We know that in the Christian tradition.
00:15:43.000 We know that in the Torah, that the heart of man is flawed from the beginning.
00:15:49.000 Therefore, you have to have systems that decentralize that power, that allow states their own sovereignty and rights while still being part of a national project.
00:15:59.000 In most Western countries, they do not explicitly state in their Charter of Rights the origination of where those rights come from.
00:16:08.000 They certainly do not believe in natural rights.
00:16:10.000 They'll say that the government is the administer of rights.
00:16:13.000 That is not an American value.
00:16:16.000 It's that your rights are natural, given to you from God, a creator, some sort of divine force.
00:16:25.000 This is one of the most important divides in the country.
00:16:28.000 Where do your rights come from?
00:16:31.000 And understand, if you talk about rights, you must always talk about responsibilities.
00:16:35.000 You cannot have a conversation about rights and not also simultaneously understand with rights come responsibilities.
00:16:41.000 The Constitution projects all of that.
00:16:44.000 And every single one of the 10 amendments of the Bill of Rights or the seven articles of the U.S. Constitution is there for a purpose.
00:16:51.000 The Constitution is beautiful because of its structure, as James Madison would say in the Federalist Papers.
00:16:56.000 The Constitution spreads power over space and time.
00:17:00.000 It is very, very hard to take over the American government in a short period of time.
00:17:03.000 That's because we are a republic.
00:17:04.000 We are not a democracy.
00:17:06.000 If rights are not from God, they can just grant us.
00:17:10.000 They are just a grant to us from the powerful and from the left holding power, things that they can revoke whenever they feel like it.
00:17:17.000 But if they're from God, nobody can take your rights away.
00:17:22.000 They can protect them, but they are inalienable.
00:17:26.000 Joining us now is Rich Barris, peoplespundant.locals.com.
00:17:30.000 That's peoplespundant.locals.com.
00:17:32.000 Rich, welcome to the program, Rich.
00:17:34.000 I've been very focused on Nebraska.
00:17:35.000 Educate our audience.
00:17:36.000 Why is that a one vote in Nebraska so important?
00:17:38.000 Oh, Charlie, I'll tell you what.
00:17:40.000 First of all, everybody needs to know, and I've heard you tell the audience this before, everyone needs to know that this is possible too, because we just had a census, which deals with government spending allocations.
00:17:51.000 It deals with congressional districting.
00:17:53.000 And of course, it deals with the Electoral College and what state gets how many votes.
00:17:58.000 Basically, if there is what, you know, if you're calling the Sunbelt strategy, if Trump holds North Carolina, holds Florida, which he's expected to do, picks up Georgia and Arizona, which the polls suggest he is on track to do, as well as potentially be the first Republican since Bush to win Nevada, which looks very plausible at this point.
00:18:19.000 Then in the event, Charlie, he was to lose Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, then it would, if Nebraska was a winner-take-all system, then it would basically end up in a tie.
00:18:33.000 It would block Biden from being able to get 270, and it would, guess where?
00:18:37.000 Go to in the event of a tie, the House, which is controlled currently anyway, by who?
00:18:43.000 Republicans, right?
00:18:44.000 So it is a smart strategy.
00:18:46.000 And I just want to say this, Charlie, for Republicans in Nebraska listening out there, I mean, and Republicans everywhere.
00:18:51.000 This is why you're losing.
00:18:53.000 This should be done already, frankly.
00:18:55.000 Democrats are willing to throw their opponents in jail for the rest of their natural life.
00:19:00.000 They're willing to jail their supporters.
00:19:03.000 They're willing to bankrupt billionaires who kept the capital city of New York afloat forever, even though it's Albany's the capital, but that is the heart of New York.
00:19:13.000 It would be a dump without that man. 0.97
00:19:15.000 They're willing to bankrupt him and his family, bankrupt political opponents, take you off the ballot, and go to the Supreme Court to argue it's legal when they damn. 0.98
00:19:23.000 Well, no, it's not. 0.89
00:19:25.000 And Republicans can't even make Nebraska winner-take-all.
00:19:28.000 Come on.
00:19:28.000 This shouldn't even be a question.
00:19:30.000 And it should have been done previously.
00:19:32.000 And we just kind of did a whole show on it Monday.
00:19:36.000 I think it was Monday.
00:19:37.000 Was it Monday or Tuesday?
00:19:39.000 I think it might have been Tuesday.
00:19:39.000 I can't.
00:19:41.000 I think it was Tuesday.
00:19:42.000 And it was Tuesday.
00:19:42.000 It was Tuesday.
00:19:43.000 It was Tuesday.
00:19:44.000 We've only been doing this for 48 hours.
00:19:45.000 And this thing has just, and great credit to the governor.
00:19:48.000 And we have to get this cross finish line because there's a lot of parliamentarian type stuff going on there.
00:19:52.000 And so we got to make this winner take all.
00:19:54.000 Okay, Rich, walk us through the latest polling.
00:19:57.000 Separate fact from fiction.
00:19:59.000 Jill Biden recently has gotten very defensive.
00:20:01.000 She says, we're up in every poll.
00:20:03.000 We're up in every poll.
00:20:03.000 We're up in every poll.
00:20:05.000 I trust your data, Rich.
00:20:06.000 Walk me through what have we learned?
00:20:08.000 What is new?
00:20:09.000 What's going on here?
00:20:10.000 Yeah, I think Joe Biden had a heads up from these lefty academic institutions that have released these polls in the last couple of days.
00:20:18.000 It all started that narrative with the Bloomberg poll, Charlie, which was conducted in early March.
00:20:23.000 So it very much seems to be a narrative.
00:20:25.000 That being said, I have told people, you know, I am uncomfortable with the leads that we have found for Trump in some of these states.
00:20:34.000 I wouldn't be surprised if he wins Florida by 15.
00:20:36.000 He's going to win Ohio by close to 1415.
00:20:39.000 I wouldn't be surprised by any of that.
00:20:41.000 But, you know, six-point leads in Pennsylvania, Charlie, which, by the way, before, you know, before.
00:20:47.000 I don't believe it.
00:20:48.000 I don't mean to interrupt.
00:20:49.000 I'm telling you, it makes me uncomfortable.
00:20:52.000 That feels like a suppression poll, as the Rush Limbaugh would teach us.
00:20:55.000 That feels fake.
00:20:56.000 No way.
00:20:58.000 This is why we did it this way.
00:21:00.000 And we have been actually for a few months.
00:21:02.000 We did, and we found it ourselves, Charlie.
00:21:04.000 I mean, if it's Trump Biden versus a generic someone else, then Trump is up about six points, 47, 41.
00:21:12.000 And Wall Street Journal, when we came out with that poll a couple hours later, the Wall Street Journal dropped and found something very similar.
00:21:18.000 However, and then we asked about, of course, JFK on the ballot.
00:21:22.000 Then we added Jill Stein with JFK.
00:21:25.000 But when you just drill down head to head, and I don't know if the graphics, you guys have the graphics I sent over, but for the Keystone State, the Pennsylvania poll, I gave those two bars to show people which one's which.
00:21:36.000 The bottom bar is just a standard head-to-head.
00:21:40.000 If you don't give anyone another choice, the voters can have to choose AB versus Trump and Biden.
00:21:46.000 It's close.
00:21:47.000 Trump leads, but it's close.
00:21:49.000 So it's with leaners, it's 51.1 to 48.9.
00:21:54.000 I mean, that is, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, thank you.
00:21:57.000 If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Charlie, this is what I would expect.
00:22:01.000 So if you look at the first test of the ballot, it's 47, 41.3.
00:22:06.000 That's because there are a bunch of people out there who are really soured on Biden.
00:22:10.000 Trump has a base that just won't abandon him, right?
00:22:13.000 So it's a little, I think it's a little bit misleading.
00:22:16.000 I'm not taking away from Trump's lead because Joe Biden needs a four-point win in the national vote in order to win the Electoral College or be comfortable that he will win the Electoral College.
00:22:27.000 I find it funny that I've been saying this for a week and Marquette drops a Biden plus four today.
00:22:32.000 It seems so engineered to me.
00:22:34.000 I'm sorry.
00:22:35.000 I just, there is no coincidences in policy.
00:22:38.000 Your polling had RFK on the ballot.
00:22:39.000 Yes.
00:22:40.000 Is that correct?
00:22:41.000 We also did that.
00:22:41.000 Yes.
00:22:42.000 That result doesn't show RFK on the ballot, but we did have RFK on the ballot alone without Jill Stein and just a generic someone else. 0.99
00:22:51.000 RFK in Pennsylvania takes 7% and it's Trump 44.5 to 38.8 when you lean people and say, well, you have to decide.
00:23:01.000 It's Trump 45.4 to Biden 39.7.
00:23:05.000 RFK gets 8 and a generic someone else takes 7.
00:23:09.000 Stein, same thing.
00:23:10.000 When you ask people to lean, Stein is getting about 3% of the vote everywhere.
00:23:15.000 Kennedy's at 9 as well in this, but Biden does jump to 42.
00:23:20.000 But again, Trump's got that base and he doesn't fall anymore below 45.
00:23:25.000 So it's like 45.7 to 41.2.
00:23:28.000 So he holds a small lead.
00:23:29.000 But again, Charlie, when you don't have them on the ballot, because I do think RFK, and I've said this on your show before, he may not even get on the ballot in Pennsylvania.
00:23:39.000 You have ballot access concerns for RFK.
00:23:42.000 I very much do.
00:23:43.000 And then when I was polling Michigan, when I was polling Michigan, I was really, something was bothering me that we didn't ask the question just with Jill Stein.
00:23:53.000 Because the truth of the matter is, he has a very, it's been very unserious to me.
00:23:57.000 His campaign doesn't seem to know what in hell they're doing when it comes to ballot access.
00:24:02.000 And it just is unserious.
00:24:04.000 I was on with Newsmax with Mark Halpern a while ago, and we were both just in agreement 100%.
00:24:10.000 They don't seem to know how to do this, Charlie.
00:24:12.000 And they have this really incoherent strategy.
00:24:15.000 Jill Stein is on the ballot already in Michigan.
00:24:19.000 She is on the ballot in Wisconsin.
00:24:21.000 That's a guaranteed 1 to 2% just being on the ballot.
00:24:21.000 Yeah.
00:24:25.000 Yeah.
00:24:25.000 And she's pulling in, let me just look real quick.
00:24:27.000 In Pennsylvania, it's 3%.
00:24:30.000 In Michigan, let me just get it because Michigan's brand new.
00:24:33.000 Wisconsin's coming up too, but it always takes a little bit more time.
00:24:37.000 In Michigan, she is pulling, yeah, I mean, about to about a little over 2%.
00:24:42.000 So, you know, in elections that are 151.49, Charlie, or 49.48 with third parties, it's a big deal.
00:24:51.000 It could be a game changer.
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00:25:49.000 So let's say RFK will be on the ballot in North Carolina.
00:25:52.000 I think he'll be on in Arizona.
00:25:54.000 The data you show or you see, is he pulling more from Biden than Trump?
00:26:00.000 It depends on the state.
00:26:03.000 If I was Team Trump, I'd be very concerned in the Rust Belt.
00:26:06.000 I know what other polls are showing.
00:26:07.000 I really don't care.
00:26:08.000 I trust my own data more. 0.94
00:26:10.000 In the Rust Belt, he is a problem for Donald Trump in every state except for Minnesota, which is weird, but it makes sense because of the ethnicity difference.
00:26:20.000 Minnesota has a lot more liberal Scandinavian ethnicities like Finns and Swedes that are left-leaning and that kind of a voter, which is still a populist Democrat, could go for RFK.
00:26:32.000 So that would give Biden a real problem in some parts of the Southeast, but like Olmstead, but really a big problem in the Iron Range where Trump has made huge gains and Democrats have only managed to hold one stronghold and one tiny little county.
00:26:47.000 So that's what I think.
00:26:48.000 I think it's a very complicated dynamic.
00:26:51.000 But in Pennsylvania and Michigan, it looks to me, regardless of what the national polls say and other polls say, he's drawing from certain working class voters. 0.54
00:27:01.000 The hope for Trump better be that he pulls what remains of the non-white working class Democratic vote that's not going to Trump. 0.69
00:27:10.000 That's the only way it could.
00:27:11.000 But as of right now, he is not pulling educated Democrats away from Biden.
00:27:15.000 Yeah, that's not right.
00:27:16.000 So let's talk about Michigan, Mechigan, which could determine the whole program, the whole deal.
00:27:21.000 Yep.
00:27:22.000 The Muslim thing, the American Muslim voting group. 1.00
00:27:26.000 They're very loud.
00:27:28.000 They're showing a lot of discontent for Biden.
00:27:32.000 What's going on here?
00:27:34.000 What is your data showing?
00:27:36.000 How significant is this?
00:27:37.000 What is this model out?
00:27:39.000 Like, let's say that if an XYZ percent of American Muslim voters don't vote for Biden, what does that mean statewide? 0.61
00:27:46.000 Walk us through. 0.71
00:27:48.000 Is this a shiny object in the media or a real meaty element for the election?
00:27:54.000 It's a real problem for Joe Biden, Charlie, because if you look at his roughly a little less than three-point win in 2020, what that breaks down margin-wise is about the population of Muslim voters registered to vote and do vote in the state of Michigan.
00:28:11.000 So his entire margin.
00:28:12.000 Now, he doesn't win.
00:28:13.000 He didn't win 100% of them, but he won them overwhelmingly.
00:28:17.000 So if there is some kind of a boycott or a protest vote or something like that, it could really hurt.
00:28:23.000 And here's why.
00:28:24.000 There are too many other truly swing voters in counties like Saginaw and Genesee and Macomb and Oakland's more left now, but Trump has tightened it even in Oakland.
00:28:34.000 It's not a 16 to 20 point drumming anymore this year.
00:28:37.000 It's more like a 10 point, which is huge, by the way.
00:28:40.000 But those people, Biden's already lost.
00:28:44.000 So he can't afford to lose anybody else on the margins.
00:28:48.000 And if he capitulates to them, then he could risk not only isolating the Jewish vote that still cares about Israel, but even more so, that there are just other Christians that are actually more pro-Israel than liberal Jews.
00:29:06.000 Well, yeah, and also there's been New York Times articles about this, though, that Biden has a tension between a smaller community of Jewish donors and a big community of Muslim voters.
00:29:17.000 That's the tension, right? 0.98
00:29:19.000 It's a good way to put it.
00:29:20.000 Yeah.
00:29:20.000 And so Joe Biden enjoys being able to raise money, millions of dollars, from liberal, left-wing, somewhat pro-Israel, you know, Jewish donors that were very disturbed, understandably, about October 7th.
00:29:32.000 And they do not want to see a capitulation to the kind of Rashidah Talib wing of the Democrat Party.
00:29:39.000 So, Rich, let's kind of go state by state based on your confidence level right now.
00:29:44.000 If I'm reading this correctly, in 2016, the Rust Belt carried Donald Trump to the presidency.
00:29:50.000 It seems as if the Sunbelt very well could be decisive.
00:29:55.000 Sunbelt plus a Rust Belt state.
00:29:57.000 Am I analyzing that correctly, Rich Barris?
00:29:59.000 You are.
00:30:01.000 And I know people have, there's a lot of concerns about Arizona.
00:30:05.000 So many people thought that, you know, Kerry Lake had a big lead in Arizona in the governor's election.
00:30:11.000 And I will just tell you, because, you know, looking at the polling and what we've done ourselves, it's a different electorate.
00:30:17.000 You know, I don't know how else to explain it to people.
00:30:19.000 There's like the most high interest and typically more educated, even among Republicans, who come out to vote during a midterm election.
00:30:27.000 There will be, especially with Trump as the nominee, there will be this group of voters that truly are swing and low propensity that you will not get in a midterm.
00:30:36.000 I mean, it's just a fact.
00:30:38.000 And then with Georgia, combined with Georgia, which he's been polling very strong in, and then my state, North Carolina, everyone seems to think like this came out of nowhere.
00:30:49.000 The new RNC chair, Michael Watley, who when asked, who do I think should replace Ronan McDaniel, the first person I relayed to people was Michael Watley because he has done so much in the face of like a Democratic onslaught to turn the state purple.
00:31:05.000 He has resisted it.
00:31:06.000 And there's starting to be like signs of what I saw in Florida going back to 2013.
00:31:12.000 Yeah, to turn North Carolina deep red, which by the way, no one really would have thought.
00:31:16.000 And we got to get Mark Robinson to start to finish on.
00:31:19.000 That's going to be a real tough one.
00:31:20.000 Yeah, Josh Stein is hated here by Republicans, but they're going to try to level these attacks.
00:31:28.000 I don't have to tell you.
00:31:28.000 You've seen them.
00:31:29.000 They're very misleading.
00:31:30.000 But hey, that's what the media does. 0.94
00:31:32.000 That's what Democrats do. 1.00
00:31:33.000 And I will say this, you know, going back to 2020, you had the Maris poll, which everyone's talking about today, that had Roy Cooper defeating Forrester by like 15 or 16 points, Charlie.
00:31:47.000 He won, but he won by like four.
00:31:50.000 So everyone had abandoned Forrester.
00:31:53.000 They didn't think he could beat Cooper, even with Trump on the ballot.
00:31:56.000 And that was a mistake.
00:31:57.000 So they should think about that when they think about getting Mark Robinson over the finish line because you know how squishy some of these people can be.
00:32:04.000 Some of these attacks are going to come.
00:32:06.000 They're going to want to run from him.
00:32:07.000 The guy already has won a statewide election.
00:32:10.000 So Rich, I want to do it.
00:32:11.000 I want to get your breaking reaction here.
00:32:13.000 Breaking news, no labels ends 2024 presidential efforts.
00:32:17.000 Good news or bad news for Trump?
00:32:18.000 Yeah, I mean, honestly, I think in the end, it would have been, it is good news because the people they wanted to run would have hurt Biden.
00:32:28.000 There's no doubt about it.
00:32:30.000 But that means they were just going to like, they were going to try to meddle.
00:32:34.000 And the only reason why I say it's good news, this is another good state to explain it.
00:32:38.000 Pat McCrory, the former governor who lost his reelection, he's been running around with no labels and trying to get people not to vote for Donald Trump.
00:32:46.000 And I don't mean vote for his candidate.
00:32:47.000 I mean not vote for Donald Trump and talking to influential people a lot of people listen to in the state.
00:32:53.000 So he's out now and he has no banner to do that with.
00:32:57.000 They weren't no labels.
00:32:58.000 They were no Trump because they publicly said we would not run someone if we thought that it would hurt Joe Biden.
00:33:04.000 So that's what their research has shown because that's what our research has shown.
00:33:09.000 They would have hurt him.
00:33:10.000 The only thing they could have thought to do was run some few other people that could have hurt Trump.
00:33:15.000 They all said no.
00:33:16.000 And that's good news because they weren't even, I mean, Charlie, they weren't trying to find somebody like a Nikki Haley or they were trying to find like a Joe Manchin or even try to get RFK and boost him up.
00:33:29.000 I don't know what came in that meeting, but their mission was to peel votes from Trump.
00:33:36.000 Let's get real with the no labels.
00:33:37.000 Cute, but not realism.
00:33:40.000 Biggest focal point for the Trump campaign.
00:33:42.000 What state, what region?
00:33:43.000 Where does he have to improve the most?
00:33:44.000 Yeah, I would say this.
00:33:46.000 I just polled Florida.
00:33:47.000 Florida is not competitive.
00:33:49.000 Ohio is not competitive.
00:33:51.000 Iowa is not competitive.
00:33:52.000 I mean, I could draw a star on the map with the same, you know, five to seven places, Charlie, that he should be going.
00:34:00.000 They need to expand and be aggressive.
00:34:02.000 Joe Biden, for all of this talk about how the polls are closing, Joe Biden just sent a crack team, three people, they are pros with a huge budget to Minnesota.
00:34:12.000 So what does that tell you?
00:34:13.000 They're trying to defend Minnesota.
00:34:15.000 Yeah, it's a big deal.
00:34:16.000 And the last poll in Maine, not to get everybody all in a hoopla here, but the last poll in Maine had Trump up by six statewide.
00:34:24.000 This is a poll that grossly overstated Biden's support in 2020.
00:34:28.000 Didn't even project that Donald Trump would carry the second district, which he did by eight.
00:34:33.000 Yeah, by eight.
00:34:33.000 Yeah.
00:34:33.000 Yeah, eight and a half, something like that, right?
00:34:36.000 So, I mean, he should be on the offensive.
00:34:39.000 And Charlie, the shift that we're seeing, do not be afraid to go to places Republicans don't go.
00:34:45.000 In Pennsylvania, you don't have to go to Wilkes.
00:34:48.000 You don't have to go to Wilkes.
00:34:49.000 The votes are coming for you there.
00:34:51.000 Allegheny, Philadelphia, bang on their back door.
00:34:54.000 Rich, see you soon.
00:34:55.000 Thanks so much.
00:34:55.000 Check out his local page, People's Pundit.
00:34:57.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
00:34:58.000 Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
00:35:01.000 Thanks so much for listening, and God bless.
00:35:04.000 For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.