The Charlie Kirk Show - Why Trump Will Win with Trafalgar Group Pollster Robert Cahaly

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, we have an exclusive conversation with Robert Cahaley from the Trafalgar Group.

00:00:04.000 And we dive deep into the polling and he thinks Trump is going to win and he's going to tell you why.

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00:00:25.000 Robert Cahaly is here.

00:00:27.000 Buckle up, everybody.

00:00:28.000 Here we go.

00:00:29.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:31.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.

00:00:33.000 I want you to know we are lucky to have Charlie Kirk.

00:00:36.000 Charlie Kirk's running the White House, folks.

00:00:40.000 I want to thank Charlie.

00:00:41.000 He's an incredible guy.

00:00:42.000 His spirit, his love of this country.

00:00:43.000 He's done an amazing job building one of the most powerful youth organizations ever created.

00:00:49.000 Turning point USA.

00:00:50.000 We will not embrace the ideas that have destroyed countries, destroyed lives, and we are going to fight for freedom on campuses across the country.

00:00:59.000 That's why we are here.

00:01:03.000 This is the most important election of our lifetime.

00:01:06.000 Our values, our security, and our future are on the ballot.

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00:01:35.000 Hey, everybody, welcome to this episode of the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:01:38.000 We are inundated with polling.

00:01:41.000 Seems like you can't turn on your TV or open up your smartphone to any sort of news site without polls.

00:01:46.000 I've showed Donald Trump down historically to Joe Biden.

00:01:49.000 There is one polling firm, though, that seems to think differently with us right now is Robert Cahaley from the Trafalgar Group.

00:01:58.000 Robert, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.

00:02:00.000 That's good to be here.

00:02:02.000 So, Robert, you accurately predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016.

00:02:07.000 I'll never forget, I was going to the RealClear Politics polling averages, and the night before the election, you had Donald Trump up one point in Michigan.

00:02:16.000 I'll never forget it.

00:02:17.000 And I looked through it and I looked at your crosstabs and I said, I can see that, especially as you had the Upper Peninsula going heavily for Trump.

00:02:24.000 And I looked at some of the other competitive polling firms that were not doing a lot of polling there.

00:02:28.000 And you predicted 2016.

00:02:30.000 What are you seeing right now on the landscape?

00:02:33.000 How is the president doing based on your polling and the methodology you have developed?

00:02:38.000 He's doing extremely well.

00:02:41.000 What you have right now is a movement of a few key constituencies.

00:02:47.000 One, the black community is absolutely moving.

00:02:51.000 There's a lot of the vote.

00:02:54.000 We refer to it as kind of the hidden note.

00:02:56.000 People who are saying, for whatever reason, they're undecided or they're voting for a third party candidate or something.

00:03:02.000 Well, about 10 days ago, that just stopped. 0.81

00:03:04.000 And all the undecided, everything fell away across all the Battleground states with the black vote. 0.81

00:03:10.000 And the black community had just gotten very much. 0.66

00:03:14.000 Those that were undecided and were unclear where they were going are all just lined up with Trump.

00:03:19.000 And it's over 26% in Michigan right now.

00:03:23.000 You also have John James, who's an excellent candidate, where some of the other candidates are a little bit of a drag on the president.

00:03:30.000 Not about them, but they're incumbents.

00:03:34.000 And, you know, it's hard for them to run as an outsider.

00:03:36.000 Trump has managed to be an incumbent and also run as an outsider, but John James is an outsider and a business person like Trump.

00:03:43.000 So they're mutually beneficial to each other.

00:03:46.000 And you can't forget that the key to both their victory is Gretchen Whitmer. 1.00

00:03:52.000 She couldn't be any more popular if she was just a pile of steaming, you know what?

00:03:57.000 So it is very, very nice for them to have her providing the contrast, what people can vote against.

00:04:06.000 And so especially with Biden having, at the debate, kind of defined himself as the shutdown candidate.

00:04:14.000 And we're seeing things break that way.

00:04:15.000 We're even seeing young people move that way now.

00:04:18.000 But every indicator in Michigan is getting better.

00:04:21.000 So I want to talk about that.

00:04:23.000 But first, can you just give us some idea of why your methodology is different?

00:04:26.000 Because most of the other polling firms have a completely different analysis of what's happening in the race.

00:04:32.000 What makes your way of doing polling different?

00:04:36.000 A few key differences.

00:04:38.000 First, we do not believe in long questionnaires.

00:04:42.000 They're not, it's not, I mean, think about how busy people are in this modern world.

00:04:46.000 Who's got time at seven o'clock to answer 25 questions?

00:04:49.000 The number one question you get when you call a home in the evening and you say it's a poll is how long is this going to take?

00:04:57.000 And when the answer is, it's going to take 15 minutes.

00:04:59.000 It's going to take 20 minutes because there are 30 questions, 40 questions.

00:05:03.000 People just say no thanks.

00:05:05.000 And you end up with people who are too harsh in their positions on the right or the left being the ones who take all these polls.

00:05:12.000 We've got to get to the average person.

00:05:14.000 The average person doesn't have time for all this nonsense.

00:05:16.000 So we've got to get them in and out quick.

00:05:18.000 We tell them, you're going to be on the phone less than three minutes, you know, six or seven questions, and you'll be done.

00:05:24.000 And we get average people to participate.

00:05:27.000 That's the first thing.

00:05:28.000 Second, we minimize the social desirability bias, which is that bias that's based on people giving an answer that they think will make them look best in the eyes of the person answering, asking the question versus their actual truth.

00:05:44.000 You know, kind of the politeness and don't want to create an awkward moment.

00:05:48.000 And quite often they feel like saying that for Trump will create that awkward moment.

00:05:53.000 Or they'll be judged for it or they don't know whether it's a real poll.

00:05:56.000 Somebody's going to put this on tape, whatever.

00:05:59.000 So we do a mix of different ways to participate, most of which are digital, in addition to those live calls.

00:06:07.000 And we work very hard to give them a real sense of anonymity because the more anonymous someone is, the more honest they are.

00:06:14.000 Most of these polls are literally a live person saying they know exactly who they are.

00:06:19.000 And that's the worst way to poll.

00:06:22.000 Last, we learned in 2016 that you need to poll audience of people that don't usually get polled.

00:06:30.000 And so we've developed criteria for low propensity voters we think are likely to participate in this election as we did in 16.

00:06:38.000 And so we're polling a little bit different likely voter universe.

00:06:42.000 Actually, I said this was last, but one more because we believe in lots of samples. 0.86

00:06:47.000 These 600 samples, that's ridiculous.

00:06:50.000 Every state, 1,000 samples, no exceptions.

00:06:54.000 It gets you below 300.

00:06:56.000 We have 3% margin error most of the time.

00:06:58.000 And it's just a more effective way to do it.

00:07:01.000 And that kind of number, any kind of oversampling, any small errors that you can make in any poll are minimized.

00:07:10.000 And so that makes us very different from the industry standard.

00:07:13.000 And we don't mind being different.

00:07:15.000 So the industry standard, is it a lot of phone polling?

00:07:18.000 Is it the same type of pool of people they speak to?

00:07:21.000 Can you just walk us through what does polling mean today?

00:07:24.000 And I have a lot of specific questions, but our audience is just curious, what exactly does it mean to run a poll?

00:07:31.000 Well, it really depends on the group.

00:07:33.000 Some, which I think are completely horrible, use this thing called a pool of people who have agreed to be poll takers, people who have filled out some kind of survey.

00:07:44.000 In some cases, they've been compensated to be a poll-taking universe.

00:07:48.000 Well, that's as far, I mean, think about how many average people you know have time to be poll takers.

00:07:54.000 So you're going to start really skewed.

00:07:56.000 They got to care way too much about politics to be a poll taker.

00:08:00.000 So I dismiss most of that.

00:08:02.000 Average polls, too, also have crazy long questions.

00:08:06.000 You know, these questions that you have to read a paragraph and then they ask the question.

00:08:10.000 I mean, that's just too much.

00:08:12.000 People's attention spans just aren't that long anymore.

00:08:16.000 And a lot of the time they use what they call every registered voter.

00:08:21.000 Some polls even just call every phone number they can get, irrespective of whether people are registered to vote.

00:08:27.000 And they, you know, they do a lot of calling people just on the phones, cell phones, and home lines.

00:08:35.000 And again, you've got to get people, average people have a hard time participating in those or don't want to.

00:08:41.000 And you're really going to underrepresent an entire segment of the population.

00:08:45.000 I mean, young people have no interest in picking up that phone and talking live, but they will participate in a text poll.

00:08:52.000 We never have to worry about undersampling young people.

00:08:55.000 The text has been very effective for us.

00:08:57.000 It gives people the ability to respond at their convenience.

00:09:00.000 They can answer question number one at nine o'clock at night, question number two the next morning.

00:09:05.000 And these guys put you basically what they do is you get that phone call and it puts you on the spot right then to give an answer.

00:09:12.000 And I just, I think it's not very conducive to kind of the way we live our modern life.

00:09:20.000 So what makes your methodology different than Nate Silver?

00:09:24.000 Because he gets a lot of headlines and he has come after you and says that what you're saying is not true.

00:09:32.000 In some ways, I know people that react to those polls.

00:09:34.000 They're less likely to vote.

00:09:35.000 They're less likely to be engaged or involved.

00:09:38.000 What is his approach versus your approach and just specifically?

00:09:44.000 Because the findings could not be more different.

00:09:46.000 Nate Silver's website, he has Joe Biden with almost a 90% chance of victory.

00:09:53.000 And he has Joe Biden up five or six points in Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Florida.

00:09:59.000 You're almost on the opposite.

00:10:00.000 It's almost a 10-point.

00:10:02.000 Is it just a different polling universe, the methodology, or do you think that there's bias in some of these other pollsters?

00:10:09.000 Well, Nate's website is actually more a aggregator of other polls.

00:10:16.000 So he can always rely on the idea of he's only as good as the information given him and he crunches numbers.

00:10:22.000 And I think he's a decent number cruncher.

00:10:25.000 I mean, we just disagree with how to rank and to rate polls because he still believes in the live call and that people are always honest on the live call.

00:10:34.000 I don't.

00:10:35.000 I think that's insane.

00:10:36.000 So, and so many of the media pollsters recognize and participate in his site.

00:10:42.000 But the point I always like to make is, if ours were so bad, then why include us?

00:10:48.000 Because all we do is move his site more to the middle, which is where he really needs to be.

00:10:53.000 So we actually do a great service to them.

00:10:55.000 But the other thing you have to remember is Nate's job is to make money for his company.

00:11:01.000 And his company makes money on clicks, not accurate polling.

00:11:05.000 And so I think he's doing very well at what he's doing.

00:11:07.000 So let's get specific here.

00:11:09.000 You said that you are starting to see some good trends with younger voters.

00:11:13.000 Tell us more about that because we've been saying about that for quite some time now.

00:11:17.000 What are some of the specifics you're saying with younger voters?

00:11:20.000 What we're seeing out of younger voters is they do not like this idea of a further shutdown.

00:11:27.000 He wouldn't, you know, ask to the debate, Biden would not rule out shutting things down again.

00:11:35.000 And there's just, I mean, whether it's younger voters or business owners or hourly workers, they just don't think that's the solution.

00:11:44.000 And so a lot of these younger voters are telling us, hey, there's a lot about Trump they don't like, but they are not interested in having to not go to class, having to not do social gatherings with their friends, and that they really don't see the danger.

00:11:59.000 They don't see a lot of their friends having major ramifications from even the ones who've gotten it.

00:12:06.000 And the reality of how little effect it has on young people isn't missed by young people, and they're ready to get back to life.

00:12:14.000 So can you give us just some numbers to show some of the movement that you're seeing with younger voters?

00:12:19.000 For example, our most recent poll in Florida, where Trump had been down in the past, we've seen a significant tick up.

00:12:28.000 And I think one of the, not staring at it right now because I've looked at so many of these, but one of the age groups, he was actually winning and he wasn't even winning before.

00:12:37.000 And, you know, when we're at, you know, we're following up and asking these guys, what's different?

00:12:42.000 And I think the debate was different.

00:12:45.000 And just, you know, it's kind of become a chatter.

00:12:47.000 I mean, and they're also seeing things like pop stars kind of being for Trump.

00:12:52.000 You know, we saw a lot of reaction to the little Wayne coming out for Trump.

00:12:56.000 It's just this idea that it's suddenly getting kind of cool to be for Trump.

00:13:00.000 And at the same time, even if it's not cool to be for Trump in your social circle, it's cool to go back to school and to get past this stuff.

00:13:11.000 So what do you think the impact of the closed universities have on this election?

00:13:16.000 Do you think that helps Democrats or do you think those people are going to vote anyway?

00:13:20.000 I think it hurts Democrats because one, kids that want to go back to school, kids that want to actually go to class instead of sitting in dorms at the universities are inclined to vote for whoever's going to open it back up.

00:13:34.000 Two, the most effective way they organized these efforts in the past was big things on campus, big parties where they get everybody together, they take them to the county square or wherever to vote on a bus.

00:13:48.000 They bring it back.

00:13:49.000 They have these big parties and all these events.

00:13:52.000 So what you're saying is that a lot of the vote gathering and enthusiasm is actually concentrated usually on university campuses.

00:13:58.000 Them being closed does not help the Democrats.

00:14:01.000 Can you show, what are we seeing in the early voting numbers?

00:14:05.000 We just have about a minute left, but with those university campuses, are they seeing a decline in voter turnout?

00:14:10.000 Are they seeing a decline in the type of enthusiasm that otherwise would have existed at these university campuses?

00:14:17.000 Absolutely.

00:14:17.000 These university campuses rely on major efforts, literally loading people up on buses, either for early voting on the weekends or during the week.

00:14:29.000 And without that effort, individual efforts are just not the same.

00:14:35.000 There's a generation of guys and girls who only went to vote because they got put on a bus and they came back to a party with lots of beer and pizza.

00:14:43.000 And nobody's throwing those parties this year.

00:14:45.000 Well, that's exactly right.

00:14:47.000 We are seeing that in a lot of the work that we are doing at Turning Point Action on university campuses.

00:14:52.000 Ohio state voter registration was down 94%.

00:14:56.000 And with these campuses shut down, you're not going to see the same ballot harvesting or enthusiasm.

00:15:01.000 And that will have a tapering effect for the Democrats.

00:15:04.000 And I see our younger voters, Trump supporters, they'll vote no matter where they are.

00:15:08.000 They'll vote if they're at home, if they're on campus, in dorm rooms.

00:15:11.000 That's where that enthusiasm advantage really starts to materialize and make a big difference.

00:15:15.000 So Robert, I see that you have polls that show Donald Trump doing a lot better in the industrial rust belt.

00:15:20.000 Give us the update of how Trump is doing state by state based on the data you're collecting.

00:15:25.000 We feel like he is definitely winning in Michigan.

00:15:29.000 You know, but for Kanye, he'd be winning in Minnesota right now.

00:15:33.000 When you poll it without Kanye, he's ahead.

00:15:35.000 When you poll it with Kanye, he's a little bit behind almost exactly the margin that Kanye's taking, which is about 3.3 right now.

00:15:44.000 We feel like it's very close to even in Wisconsin.

00:15:47.000 And I think he's ahead.

00:15:48.000 I think our last poll is two, maybe 2.5 in Pennsylvania.

00:15:53.000 I will say Pennsylvania with one caveat.

00:15:55.000 I think it's the state with the most likely to be stolen.

00:15:58.000 And so I believe if he doesn't win by 4% or more, he will win Pennsylvania, but actually have it stolen from him.

00:16:05.000 So tell us more about that.

00:16:07.000 What are you seeing in Pennsylvania?

00:16:08.000 What's your biggest fear of that election being stolen?

00:16:10.000 It acting like Pennsylvania always acts and like Philadelphia always acts.

00:16:14.000 And it's bad.

00:16:16.000 Well, what specifically, though?

00:16:18.000 Just voter fraud, voter registration fraud?

00:16:21.000 Red registration fraud, voter fraud on election day, systematically within the they have a court system.

00:16:33.000 They're supposed to be able to take and adjudicate people who aren't allowed to vote and they're just kind of wave them through and let them vote anyway.

00:16:41.000 People look the other way in the voter registration areas.

00:16:46.000 And we already had a Pennsylvania Supreme Court rule that, well, the postmark's not that important.

00:16:53.000 I mean, this is systematic.

00:16:56.000 They're very good at this.

00:16:58.000 Yeah, but your polling reflects that President Trump has more than a chance to win in Pennsylvania if it was a fair fight.

00:17:06.000 Oh, if it was a fair fight, it ought to be over.

00:17:08.000 But I still think he can get to the 4%, 5% it takes to win and outpace the voter fraud.

00:17:14.000 So what is your biggest, what is your biggest surprise that you have found in polling in the last couple weeks and months of doing this?

00:17:22.000 What's been the big development that you did not even expect to see in the data that you've been gathering?

00:17:29.000 The complete collapse of undecided in the black vote.

00:17:36.000 We were seeing high teens.

00:17:37.000 We figured he would finish in the low 20s and that some of that undecided vote would go to various different places.

00:17:46.000 But all of a sudden, when it started getting trendy to be for Trump among some of the recognized leaders, when they started realizing what his record was on issues that have to do with things that are very near and dear to the black community,

00:18:02.000 and when they realize exactly who Joe Biden is and some of his obnoxious statements, they've just fallen in a way that I could not have dreamed they would.

00:18:17.000 I've never thought we'd be seeing closing in on 30% in some of these states.

00:18:22.000 I mean, above 25 across the board in states with large black populations.

00:18:28.000 And there's no question in my mind, when Trump wins this election, it will be unquestionably due to the fact that the black vote can no longer be taken for granted.

00:18:40.000 They're not acting monolithically, and they deserve the credit for delivering this election.

00:18:46.000 Do you think that a lot of the other polling firms are not diving deep enough into the black community as far as trying to, are they not seeing this break as well, or are they seeing it and ignoring it?

00:19:00.000 I think Ras Mussen has been seeing this a little bit as well.

00:19:04.000 What is the reason that you've been able to pinpoint that?

00:19:07.000 Well, one, I think it's about getting to people in the way that they are most comfortable answering a poll.

00:19:13.000 And, you know, a lot of folks in that community do not tend to answer the home line.

00:19:18.000 I mean, a lot of people I know don't answer the home line in any community.

00:19:22.000 But what we found is when you give them, much like you young people, when you give some of these folks the chance to participate online, when you give them a chance to participate with a text or an email, you're going to get better representation.

00:19:37.000 you're going to get people who are going to participate, especially the younger folks.

00:19:41.000 You know, the way to reach white or black old people is pretty much the same, but young people is the same.

00:19:49.000 And so these, what happens is these groups don't understand how hard you have to work to get a young person sample.

00:19:57.000 I hear it all the time.

00:19:58.000 Well, you know, we got a young person to answer the phone at the home.

00:20:02.000 I'm like, no, you didn't.

00:20:04.000 They're like, oh, yes, we did.

00:20:05.000 I'm like, pull the voter record.

00:20:05.000 Look.

00:20:07.000 You're going to see that there's at least one other old person at home.

00:20:10.000 And I guarantee you, that's who answered the house line. 0.66

00:20:13.000 It's not the young person.

00:20:15.000 That's it.

00:20:16.000 And it's like they don't want to concede that.

00:20:18.000 So they're still like calling home numbers and stuff, trying to get young people.

00:20:22.000 It doesn't work.

00:20:23.000 And getting anybody young to answer the phone versus respond to a text is a totally different challenge.

00:20:32.000 And so we try to get a good representation.

00:20:35.000 You know, if we've got a 13% of the vote is African American, then we're doing 1,000. 0.78

00:20:41.000 We're not happy till we have 130 samples.

00:20:45.000 I mean, we don't ever take that for granted and we always get a deep, deep number.

00:20:51.000 We do not find ourselves having to wait up to get a good sample of the black vote.

00:20:57.000 One of the hardest part of polling is to actually model what the electorate will look like. 0.99

00:21:02.000 We're starting to get a little bit of crumbs, if you will, of what is actually happening.

00:21:07.000 Based on all the data we have available, we are seeing the electorate be more rural, higher turnouts in those areas with early voting in Florida, North Carolina than we could have actually ever imagined.

00:21:19.000 Are you seeing this as well?

00:21:21.000 Are you seeing Republican turnout higher?

00:21:23.000 And in some Democrat areas like Miami-Dade County, it seems as if it's lagging behind tremendously.

00:21:29.000 Are we looking at that correctly?

00:21:31.000 Yeah, I was actually talking to somebody about Miami-Dade County the other day, and they said that just in registration, Hillary had a 31% advantage.

00:21:39.000 And this time, Biden's people have a 7% advantage.

00:21:43.000 I mean, the thing is, what happened this summer has woken up a lot of America.

00:21:50.000 I'm probably different than most people.

00:21:51.000 I've always said that a sign of a stable democracy is low voter turnout.

00:21:58.000 Because if you believe that your life isn't going to radically change, depending upon who wins an election, you have the luxury of not voting.

00:22:06.000 You look at places where your family could be killed or your house burned down based on who wins an election.

00:22:12.000 That's the place that have 90% voter turnout.

00:22:15.000 But in America, we've had the luxury of low voter turnout.

00:22:18.000 Well, what people saw this summer when we started with the violence and the cancel culture and had a genuine debate about whether Mount Rushmore was a white supremacist symbol.

00:22:29.000 People said, what is going on in my country?

00:22:33.000 And that's what they tell us is like they didn't recognize what they were seeing.

00:22:37.000 This wasn't the America that they had ever thought would be possible.

00:22:43.000 The things that were being debated, things that were being discussed, the cancel culture, the attacks on Western civilization as a whole, and it has woken up a lot of people and they want their voice heard.

00:22:55.000 They don't want to necessarily put it on social media.

00:22:57.000 They don't want to be lampooned for saying it, but their only catharsis, the only way that they can feel better about what they've witnessed is to vote.

00:23:06.000 And they've been telling me for months, there's a lot of things I'm going to do, but I'm going to vote.

00:23:13.000 I have one guy says, I might not pay my taxes.

00:23:16.000 I might get my car repossessed, but I am darn sure going to vote.

00:23:20.000 What are we seeing, though, in the early vote numbers to correlate with that?

00:23:24.000 We're seeing record high turnout, and the Democrats on television are taking victory laps.

00:23:28.000 That high turnout means it will benefit them.

00:23:31.000 Is that necessarily true?

00:23:33.000 No, it's exactly the opposite of true.

00:23:36.000 If you are part of the liberal, the skies falling every two years, you've always voted.

00:23:42.000 When you poll, and we've done it in all the battleground states, what's called low propensity voters, the ones that have voted once or twice in the last 20 years, what you find is Trump is winning over 50% of them across the board.

00:23:57.000 A really high turnout is the end for them.

00:24:01.000 And especially when they have kind of the urban decay, when they don't have the same sort of support in the areas where they have to really boost support and they have to run up the score.

00:24:12.000 Can you give us any specifics of what we're seeing in early voting that is making you change your polling methodology?

00:24:17.000 Well, we're not changing them mainly because we always get accused of trying to do things that are beneficial to the Republicans.

00:24:26.000 So we are making sure that this is why I always say I think Trump is doing better than my polls say.

00:24:31.000 No, we're keeping the turnout models expecting this crazy high youth turnout that we don't think is probably going to happen.

00:24:38.000 And we're keeping the model saying that it's going to be the same balance as we saw in 2018.

00:24:46.000 And we do this because one, to change it to what we think is really going to happen would look like we are trying to change our result.

00:24:55.000 So we want to demonstrate that we're going to give you an we're going to give you a number that we believe is accurate, even based on the way you think the turnout is going to be.

00:25:04.000 And we know it's going to be better and more beneficial to Trump.

00:25:08.000 But it just part of our inoculation on being said that, you know, we're just trying to put it out there for Trump.

00:25:14.000 Well, all anybody has to do is look at what our turnout stuff that we publish with every poll shows on percentages, and you can see they are very in line with everyone else.

00:25:23.000 That's why I think Trump's going to outperform our polls too.

00:25:27.000 So I'm looking at the last latest polls out of Michigan.

00:25:29.000 ABC News Washington Post says Biden up seven.

00:25:32.000 Reuters, Biden up nine.

00:25:34.000 Detroit News, Biden up seven.

00:25:36.000 New York Times, Biden up eight.

00:25:38.000 MRS, Mitchell Research, Biden up 10.

00:25:41.000 And Trafalgar, Trump up two.

00:25:44.000 And so they just seem to be stuck in an old way.

00:25:48.000 Someone's going to be wrong, right, this Tuesday.

00:25:51.000 And you seem very confident that you're finding something that they're not.

00:25:55.000 I think so.

00:25:56.000 And, you know, I will trust Michael Moore's ability to read average people over every single pollster you just mentioned and double that.

00:26:06.000 And Michael Moore is sounding the alarm that the polls are wrong.

00:26:10.000 He's the guy who predicted Trump would win.

00:26:13.000 These guys are stuck.

00:26:14.000 You know, they're stuck in their accelerator and they don't see outside of it.

00:26:18.000 Okay, so let's go state by state here.

00:26:21.000 You think the president wins Florida?

00:26:23.000 I do.

00:26:24.000 Arizona?

00:26:26.000 Yes.

00:26:26.000 North Carolina?

00:26:28.000 Yes.

00:26:29.000 Pennsylvania.

00:26:31.000 He wins it, but if he doesn't win it by 4% or 5%, he's not going to get it.

00:26:34.000 Voter fraud will take it from him.

00:26:35.000 It's with an asterisk.

00:26:37.000 How about Michigan?

00:26:39.000 I think he wins Michigan.

00:26:40.000 So let's just focus on Michigan because that seems to have the greatest discrepancy.

00:26:45.000 People say Michigan is done.

00:26:47.000 It's in the bag.

00:26:48.000 What are the trends?

00:26:50.000 Where is Trump doing better than in 2016 in Michigan?

00:26:54.000 Where does he still need to make up some ground?

00:26:56.000 Well, we see what we can, the way we see what we think he needs to make up some ground is where we see people that we know are probably voting for him that are kind of hidden vote.

00:27:08.000 We see him stronger in a few areas.

00:27:12.000 We see the turnout as a proportion.

00:27:14.000 We think the UP is really going to be very even stronger.

00:27:19.000 I mean, obviously, it's a very small percentage of Michigan, but we think it'll represent a larger proportion than it has in the past because there's such an energy in the rural community for Trump.

00:27:30.000 We see the east, excuse me, the west side of Michigan.

00:27:35.000 I think all those counties, but maybe Muskegon and one other voted for Trump.

00:27:41.000 And we see some very big movements in the Muskegon area that should have been safe territory for Biden, and we don't see it as so safe.

00:27:51.000 And we also see the vote they're counting on to come out of East Lansing.

00:27:59.000 and Ann Arbor for Michigan, Michigan State.

00:28:02.000 We see the turnout there down and we don't see any apparatus to make it higher what it needs to be on Election Day because of the restrictions with the schools and the ability to load the kids up and do their full operation.

00:28:18.000 So we see a lot of things that are telling us that Michigan looks good.

00:28:22.000 And the other thing to consider too is after what happened with the governor, people are really very, very hesitant to admit they're outside of the form.

00:28:37.000 There's a kind of accepted idea that people are saying, well, the Trump folks are the ones who kind of stirring up trouble and causing all this rebellion and stuff.

00:28:47.000 And so it makes people even more hesitant, believing they're kind of being looked at, to readily admit where they are.

00:28:55.000 And I think that's a factor we've seen that's kind of made the polls skew a little bit against Trump in the last few weeks, the way they're doing it, because people are just really hesitant now.

00:29:07.000 They don't know who's asking.

00:29:09.000 And, you know, they just went through everybody who's ever been anti-Whitmer getting blamed for being part of what happened to her.

00:29:17.000 And that's made people a little more skittish about admitting that they're pro-Trump out there.

00:29:22.000 And how about Ohio?

00:29:23.000 We feel good about Ohio?

00:29:24.000 Ohio's done.

00:29:25.000 Well, there's a poll that this just, just to give everyone an idea, and again, I'm not doubting you.

00:29:30.000 There was a poll out, I think, by Quinnia Pack that shows Biden up five points in Ohio today.

00:29:35.000 I think that one had 35 questions.

00:29:37.000 Yeah.

00:29:38.000 And so I'm just, I'm reinforcing your whole thesis is that somebody, I find no way that Trump loses Ohio.

00:29:46.000 I mean, that's just that is sign-sealed and delivered, right?

00:29:50.000 There's no question.

00:29:51.000 The worst week of the Trump campaign, we had him up by four in Ohio.

00:29:55.000 We're not even polling again.

00:29:57.000 Yeah, I mean, you're not even getting near.

00:29:59.000 I mean, so they have, that goes to show Quinnia Pack, Biden up five in Ohio.

00:30:05.000 Iowa is done.

00:30:07.000 I think Iowa's going to be closer than it would have been naturally, but no, I don't think there's a chance for him losing.

00:30:13.000 Even when mainstream polls, the average is still not as good as the Trump side would want it, but it's more because there haven't been a lot of polls because once everybody realized we're showing that the Republicans were winning, everybody just kind of quit polling Iowa.

00:30:30.000 So the average hasn't caught up to the most recent polls.

00:30:33.000 How about Georgia?

00:30:34.000 This is where I am right now. 0.94

00:30:35.000 And let me tell you, that's just a bunch of mess.

00:30:38.000 They gave everything they had in 2018.

00:30:41.000 They can't do better.

00:30:42.000 That's it.

00:30:43.000 I mean, these guys couldn't get 30 people to come to hear a candidate for president speak.

00:30:49.000 I mean, if you have 30 people come to your barbecue, you failed in Georgia.

00:30:52.000 No way.

00:30:53.000 And the president is coming to Rome this weekend, though.

00:30:56.000 Is there something that the Trump campaign is seeing or they want to share up support?

00:30:59.000 Is it because of the Purdue Ossip race or what are we missing?

00:31:03.000 I think there's a lot to do with making sure the Purdue race goes the way it needs to because there is some energy for Ossup.

00:31:11.000 And what people are worried about and they're worried about in Georgia and a lot of places is not really whether Trump's going to win, but what's called undervote.

00:31:20.000 People that are fired up and can't wait to get out there and vote for Trump.

00:31:24.000 And then they look at some incumbents like Purdue and they're like, and maybe they just vote for Trump and leave.

00:31:32.000 I mean, it is very common in presidential races for people to vote for the president, get all fired up about that and not vote the rest of the ticket.

00:31:40.000 And for Trump to be successful, he's got to make the case.

00:31:43.000 If you come out to vote for me, you've got to stick with the team.

00:31:46.000 You got to get the rest of them elected.

00:31:48.000 And the fact that they're going to Rome tells me that is where the people are, that's the kind of people that will be so fired up, come out to vote for Trump and just might just say that's all they came to do today.

00:32:01.000 Yeah, I don't quite understand why they're going to Rome.

00:32:05.000 I would have went to either Macon, I think that's how you pronounce it right, or I would have gone closer to the Florida, Georgia border.

00:32:13.000 There might be some wisdom to this, but I would have went right on the Jacksonville-Georgia border.

00:32:17.000 I think they're going to Rome because there's a Northwest rural problem.

00:32:21.000 I think that they're not getting the numbers that they need and they need to run up the score up in kind of Northwest Georgia, Northwest Atlanta.

00:32:29.000 So final question, final prediction, who's going to win?

00:32:33.000 Oh, I think Trump will definitely win.

00:32:35.000 I think it's going to be at minimum above 275 and on up, depending upon how large this thing that we think could be a wave of Trump people coming out to vote that no one's anticipating.

00:32:49.000 And so you're of the opinion that there might be a red wave that everyone's missing, ghost vote, hidden voter, and this thing's going to break.

00:32:57.000 Absolutely.

00:32:58.000 I think that if the wave's big enough, you could start seeing things like Colorado getting close enough for Corey Gardner to stay.

00:33:06.000 You could see, you're going to see states like New Hampshire and New Mexico getting very competitive looking, and maybe even the possibility of Virginia getting competitive looking.

00:33:18.000 If the hidden vote is as large as we think it could be on our largest model, then you could see a nice, nice size wave.

00:33:27.000 But we're going to stick with all the unknowns out there that it's going to be at least a Trump victory and quite possibly more.

00:33:35.000 Well, I pray you're right more than you can ever imagine.

00:33:38.000 So Robert DeHaley from the Trafalgar Group, we will be watching Tuesday evening.

00:33:42.000 Thank you for giving us that shot of confidence.

00:33:45.000 And thanks for the great work.

00:33:46.000 Talk to you soon.

00:33:47.000 Yes, sir.

00:33:48.000 Great to be here.

00:33:49.000 See you soon.

00:33:49.000 Thanks.

00:33:53.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:33:54.000 If you want to get involved with Turning PointUSA, go to tpusa.com, tpusa.com.

00:33:59.000 Email us as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.

00:34:01.000 Please consider supporting us, charliekirk.com slash support.

00:34:06.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:34:07.000 God bless.

00:34:11.000 This is the most important election of our lifetime.

00:34:14.000 Our values, our security, and our future are on the ballot.

00:34:19.000 Every American deserves to have their voice heard and their vote counted.

00:34:23.000 So visit yourvote2020.org to find your polling location.

00:34:28.000 Get to the polls, cast your ballot, visit yourvote2020.org because your voice, your values, your vote have never been more important.

00:34:37.000 Paid for by America First Policies, Inc.

The Charlie Kirk Show - October 31, 2020

Why Trump Will Win with Trafalgar Group Pollster Robert Cahaly

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