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00:02:02.000So, Robert, you accurately predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016.
00:02:07.000I'll never forget, I was going to the RealClear Politics polling averages, and the night before the election, you had Donald Trump up one point in Michigan.
00:02:17.000And I looked through it and I looked at your crosstabs and I said, I can see that, especially as you had the Upper Peninsula going heavily for Trump.
00:02:24.000And I looked at some of the other competitive polling firms that were not doing a lot of polling there.
00:05:28.000Second, we minimize the social desirability bias, which is that bias that's based on people giving an answer that they think will make them look best in the eyes of the person answering, asking the question versus their actual truth.
00:05:44.000You know, kind of the politeness and don't want to create an awkward moment.
00:05:48.000And quite often they feel like saying that for Trump will create that awkward moment.
00:05:53.000Or they'll be judged for it or they don't know whether it's a real poll.
00:05:56.000Somebody's going to put this on tape, whatever.
00:05:59.000So we do a mix of different ways to participate, most of which are digital, in addition to those live calls.
00:06:07.000And we work very hard to give them a real sense of anonymity because the more anonymous someone is, the more honest they are.
00:06:14.000Most of these polls are literally a live person saying they know exactly who they are.
00:07:33.000Some, which I think are completely horrible, use this thing called a pool of people who have agreed to be poll takers, people who have filled out some kind of survey.
00:07:44.000In some cases, they've been compensated to be a poll-taking universe.
00:07:48.000Well, that's as far, I mean, think about how many average people you know have time to be poll takers.
00:07:54.000So you're going to start really skewed.
00:07:56.000They got to care way too much about politics to be a poll taker.
00:10:02.000Is it just a different polling universe, the methodology, or do you think that there's bias in some of these other pollsters?
00:10:09.000Well, Nate's website is actually more a aggregator of other polls.
00:10:16.000So he can always rely on the idea of he's only as good as the information given him and he crunches numbers.
00:10:22.000And I think he's a decent number cruncher.
00:10:25.000I mean, we just disagree with how to rank and to rate polls because he still believes in the live call and that people are always honest on the live call.
00:11:09.000You said that you are starting to see some good trends with younger voters.
00:11:13.000Tell us more about that because we've been saying about that for quite some time now.
00:11:17.000What are some of the specifics you're saying with younger voters?
00:11:20.000What we're seeing out of younger voters is they do not like this idea of a further shutdown.
00:11:27.000He wouldn't, you know, ask to the debate, Biden would not rule out shutting things down again.
00:11:35.000And there's just, I mean, whether it's younger voters or business owners or hourly workers, they just don't think that's the solution.
00:11:44.000And so a lot of these younger voters are telling us, hey, there's a lot about Trump they don't like, but they are not interested in having to not go to class, having to not do social gatherings with their friends, and that they really don't see the danger.
00:11:59.000They don't see a lot of their friends having major ramifications from even the ones who've gotten it.
00:12:06.000And the reality of how little effect it has on young people isn't missed by young people, and they're ready to get back to life.
00:12:14.000So can you give us just some numbers to show some of the movement that you're seeing with younger voters?
00:12:19.000For example, our most recent poll in Florida, where Trump had been down in the past, we've seen a significant tick up.
00:12:28.000And I think one of the, not staring at it right now because I've looked at so many of these, but one of the age groups, he was actually winning and he wasn't even winning before.
00:12:37.000And, you know, when we're at, you know, we're following up and asking these guys, what's different?
00:12:45.000And just, you know, it's kind of become a chatter.
00:12:47.000I mean, and they're also seeing things like pop stars kind of being for Trump.
00:12:52.000You know, we saw a lot of reaction to the little Wayne coming out for Trump.
00:12:56.000It's just this idea that it's suddenly getting kind of cool to be for Trump.
00:13:00.000And at the same time, even if it's not cool to be for Trump in your social circle, it's cool to go back to school and to get past this stuff.
00:13:11.000So what do you think the impact of the closed universities have on this election?
00:13:16.000Do you think that helps Democrats or do you think those people are going to vote anyway?
00:13:20.000I think it hurts Democrats because one, kids that want to go back to school, kids that want to actually go to class instead of sitting in dorms at the universities are inclined to vote for whoever's going to open it back up.
00:13:34.000Two, the most effective way they organized these efforts in the past was big things on campus, big parties where they get everybody together, they take them to the county square or wherever to vote on a bus.
00:14:17.000These university campuses rely on major efforts, literally loading people up on buses, either for early voting on the weekends or during the week.
00:14:29.000And without that effort, individual efforts are just not the same.
00:14:35.000There's a generation of guys and girls who only went to vote because they got put on a bus and they came back to a party with lots of beer and pizza.
00:14:43.000And nobody's throwing those parties this year.
00:16:21.000Red registration fraud, voter fraud on election day, systematically within the they have a court system.
00:16:33.000They're supposed to be able to take and adjudicate people who aren't allowed to vote and they're just kind of wave them through and let them vote anyway.
00:16:41.000People look the other way in the voter registration areas.
00:16:46.000And we already had a Pennsylvania Supreme Court rule that, well, the postmark's not that important.
00:17:37.000We figured he would finish in the low 20s and that some of that undecided vote would go to various different places.
00:17:46.000But all of a sudden, when it started getting trendy to be for Trump among some of the recognized leaders, when they started realizing what his record was on issues that have to do with things that are very near and dear to the black community,
00:18:02.000and when they realize exactly who Joe Biden is and some of his obnoxious statements, they've just fallen in a way that I could not have dreamed they would.
00:18:17.000I've never thought we'd be seeing closing in on 30% in some of these states.
00:18:22.000I mean, above 25 across the board in states with large black populations.
00:18:28.000And there's no question in my mind, when Trump wins this election, it will be unquestionably due to the fact that the black vote can no longer be taken for granted.
00:18:40.000They're not acting monolithically, and they deserve the credit for delivering this election.
00:18:46.000Do you think that a lot of the other polling firms are not diving deep enough into the black community as far as trying to, are they not seeing this break as well, or are they seeing it and ignoring it?
00:19:00.000I think Ras Mussen has been seeing this a little bit as well.
00:19:04.000What is the reason that you've been able to pinpoint that?
00:19:07.000Well, one, I think it's about getting to people in the way that they are most comfortable answering a poll.
00:19:13.000And, you know, a lot of folks in that community do not tend to answer the home line.
00:19:18.000I mean, a lot of people I know don't answer the home line in any community.
00:19:22.000But what we found is when you give them, much like you young people, when you give some of these folks the chance to participate online, when you give them a chance to participate with a text or an email, you're going to get better representation.
00:19:37.000you're going to get people who are going to participate, especially the younger folks.
00:19:41.000You know, the way to reach white or black old people is pretty much the same, but young people is the same.
00:19:49.000And so these, what happens is these groups don't understand how hard you have to work to get a young person sample.
00:20:23.000And getting anybody young to answer the phone versus respond to a text is a totally different challenge.
00:20:32.000And so we try to get a good representation.
00:20:35.000You know, if we've got a 13% of the vote is African American, then we're doing 1,000.
00:20:41.000We're not happy till we have 130 samples.
00:20:45.000I mean, we don't ever take that for granted and we always get a deep, deep number.
00:20:51.000We do not find ourselves having to wait up to get a good sample of the black vote.
00:20:57.000One of the hardest part of polling is to actually model what the electorate will look like.
00:21:02.000We're starting to get a little bit of crumbs, if you will, of what is actually happening.
00:21:07.000Based on all the data we have available, we are seeing the electorate be more rural, higher turnouts in those areas with early voting in Florida, North Carolina than we could have actually ever imagined.
00:21:31.000Yeah, I was actually talking to somebody about Miami-Dade County the other day, and they said that just in registration, Hillary had a 31% advantage.
00:21:39.000And this time, Biden's people have a 7% advantage.
00:21:43.000I mean, the thing is, what happened this summer has woken up a lot of America.
00:21:50.000I'm probably different than most people.
00:21:51.000I've always said that a sign of a stable democracy is low voter turnout.
00:21:58.000Because if you believe that your life isn't going to radically change, depending upon who wins an election, you have the luxury of not voting.
00:22:06.000You look at places where your family could be killed or your house burned down based on who wins an election.
00:22:12.000That's the place that have 90% voter turnout.
00:22:15.000But in America, we've had the luxury of low voter turnout.
00:22:18.000Well, what people saw this summer when we started with the violence and the cancel culture and had a genuine debate about whether Mount Rushmore was a white supremacist symbol.
00:22:29.000People said, what is going on in my country?
00:22:33.000And that's what they tell us is like they didn't recognize what they were seeing.
00:22:37.000This wasn't the America that they had ever thought would be possible.
00:22:43.000The things that were being debated, things that were being discussed, the cancel culture, the attacks on Western civilization as a whole, and it has woken up a lot of people and they want their voice heard.
00:22:55.000They don't want to necessarily put it on social media.
00:22:57.000They don't want to be lampooned for saying it, but their only catharsis, the only way that they can feel better about what they've witnessed is to vote.
00:23:06.000And they've been telling me for months, there's a lot of things I'm going to do, but I'm going to vote.
00:23:13.000I have one guy says, I might not pay my taxes.
00:23:16.000I might get my car repossessed, but I am darn sure going to vote.
00:23:20.000What are we seeing, though, in the early vote numbers to correlate with that?
00:23:24.000We're seeing record high turnout, and the Democrats on television are taking victory laps.
00:23:28.000That high turnout means it will benefit them.
00:23:33.000No, it's exactly the opposite of true.
00:23:36.000If you are part of the liberal, the skies falling every two years, you've always voted.
00:23:42.000When you poll, and we've done it in all the battleground states, what's called low propensity voters, the ones that have voted once or twice in the last 20 years, what you find is Trump is winning over 50% of them across the board.
00:23:57.000A really high turnout is the end for them.
00:24:01.000And especially when they have kind of the urban decay, when they don't have the same sort of support in the areas where they have to really boost support and they have to run up the score.
00:24:12.000Can you give us any specifics of what we're seeing in early voting that is making you change your polling methodology?
00:24:17.000Well, we're not changing them mainly because we always get accused of trying to do things that are beneficial to the Republicans.
00:24:26.000So we are making sure that this is why I always say I think Trump is doing better than my polls say.
00:24:31.000No, we're keeping the turnout models expecting this crazy high youth turnout that we don't think is probably going to happen.
00:24:38.000And we're keeping the model saying that it's going to be the same balance as we saw in 2018.
00:24:46.000And we do this because one, to change it to what we think is really going to happen would look like we are trying to change our result.
00:24:55.000So we want to demonstrate that we're going to give you an we're going to give you a number that we believe is accurate, even based on the way you think the turnout is going to be.
00:25:04.000And we know it's going to be better and more beneficial to Trump.
00:25:08.000But it just part of our inoculation on being said that, you know, we're just trying to put it out there for Trump.
00:25:14.000Well, all anybody has to do is look at what our turnout stuff that we publish with every poll shows on percentages, and you can see they are very in line with everyone else.
00:25:23.000That's why I think Trump's going to outperform our polls too.
00:25:27.000So I'm looking at the last latest polls out of Michigan.
00:25:29.000ABC News Washington Post says Biden up seven.
00:26:50.000Where is Trump doing better than in 2016 in Michigan?
00:26:54.000Where does he still need to make up some ground?
00:26:56.000Well, we see what we can, the way we see what we think he needs to make up some ground is where we see people that we know are probably voting for him that are kind of hidden vote.
00:27:14.000We think the UP is really going to be very even stronger.
00:27:19.000I mean, obviously, it's a very small percentage of Michigan, but we think it'll represent a larger proportion than it has in the past because there's such an energy in the rural community for Trump.
00:27:30.000We see the east, excuse me, the west side of Michigan.
00:27:35.000I think all those counties, but maybe Muskegon and one other voted for Trump.
00:27:41.000And we see some very big movements in the Muskegon area that should have been safe territory for Biden, and we don't see it as so safe.
00:27:51.000And we also see the vote they're counting on to come out of East Lansing.
00:27:59.000and Ann Arbor for Michigan, Michigan State.
00:28:02.000We see the turnout there down and we don't see any apparatus to make it higher what it needs to be on Election Day because of the restrictions with the schools and the ability to load the kids up and do their full operation.
00:28:18.000So we see a lot of things that are telling us that Michigan looks good.
00:28:22.000And the other thing to consider too is after what happened with the governor, people are really very, very hesitant to admit they're outside of the form.
00:28:37.000There's a kind of accepted idea that people are saying, well, the Trump folks are the ones who kind of stirring up trouble and causing all this rebellion and stuff.
00:28:47.000And so it makes people even more hesitant, believing they're kind of being looked at, to readily admit where they are.
00:28:55.000And I think that's a factor we've seen that's kind of made the polls skew a little bit against Trump in the last few weeks, the way they're doing it, because people are just really hesitant now.
00:30:07.000I think Iowa's going to be closer than it would have been naturally, but no, I don't think there's a chance for him losing.
00:30:13.000Even when mainstream polls, the average is still not as good as the Trump side would want it, but it's more because there haven't been a lot of polls because once everybody realized we're showing that the Republicans were winning, everybody just kind of quit polling Iowa.
00:30:30.000So the average hasn't caught up to the most recent polls.
00:30:53.000And the president is coming to Rome this weekend, though.
00:30:56.000Is there something that the Trump campaign is seeing or they want to share up support?
00:30:59.000Is it because of the Purdue Ossip race or what are we missing?
00:31:03.000I think there's a lot to do with making sure the Purdue race goes the way it needs to because there is some energy for Ossup.
00:31:11.000And what people are worried about and they're worried about in Georgia and a lot of places is not really whether Trump's going to win, but what's called undervote.
00:31:20.000People that are fired up and can't wait to get out there and vote for Trump.
00:31:24.000And then they look at some incumbents like Purdue and they're like, and maybe they just vote for Trump and leave.
00:31:32.000I mean, it is very common in presidential races for people to vote for the president, get all fired up about that and not vote the rest of the ticket.
00:31:40.000And for Trump to be successful, he's got to make the case.
00:31:43.000If you come out to vote for me, you've got to stick with the team.
00:31:46.000You got to get the rest of them elected.
00:31:48.000And the fact that they're going to Rome tells me that is where the people are, that's the kind of people that will be so fired up, come out to vote for Trump and just might just say that's all they came to do today.
00:32:01.000Yeah, I don't quite understand why they're going to Rome.
00:32:05.000I would have went to either Macon, I think that's how you pronounce it right, or I would have gone closer to the Florida, Georgia border.
00:32:13.000There might be some wisdom to this, but I would have went right on the Jacksonville-Georgia border.
00:32:17.000I think they're going to Rome because there's a Northwest rural problem.
00:32:21.000I think that they're not getting the numbers that they need and they need to run up the score up in kind of Northwest Georgia, Northwest Atlanta.
00:32:29.000So final question, final prediction, who's going to win?
00:32:33.000Oh, I think Trump will definitely win.
00:32:35.000I think it's going to be at minimum above 275 and on up, depending upon how large this thing that we think could be a wave of Trump people coming out to vote that no one's anticipating.
00:32:49.000And so you're of the opinion that there might be a red wave that everyone's missing, ghost vote, hidden voter, and this thing's going to break.
00:32:58.000I think that if the wave's big enough, you could start seeing things like Colorado getting close enough for Corey Gardner to stay.
00:33:06.000You could see, you're going to see states like New Hampshire and New Mexico getting very competitive looking, and maybe even the possibility of Virginia getting competitive looking.
00:33:18.000If the hidden vote is as large as we think it could be on our largest model, then you could see a nice, nice size wave.
00:33:27.000But we're going to stick with all the unknowns out there that it's going to be at least a Trump victory and quite possibly more.
00:33:35.000Well, I pray you're right more than you can ever imagine.
00:33:38.000So Robert DeHaley from the Trafalgar Group, we will be watching Tuesday evening.
00:33:42.000Thank you for giving us that shot of confidence.