The Charlie Kirk Show - Why We Lost in Wisconsin — Explained

00:00:00.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

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00:00:58.000 So we're at 28% of the vote in.

00:01:00.000 Let's just update on the macro.

00:01:02.000 Susan Crawford commands a nearly 107,000 vote lead.

00:01:07.000 No spin, that's a lot.

00:01:08.000 There's still a lot of votes left on the board.

00:01:10.000 That's a 17 point lead.

00:01:12.000 The configuration of that, it will likely tighten.

00:01:15.000 How much it will tighten, we will see based on election day votes.

00:01:21.000 There are a ton of red counties that have yet to perform.

00:01:24.000 But understand as you guys look at this map, It doesn't, what is not, can you guys please go back to the entire statewide, thank you.

00:01:32.000 What is not shown on this map is yes, red county, red county, red county, is what Donald Trump did is he brought in voters that have never voted and he made red counties redder.

00:01:45.000 Meaning the turnout was so high, the Richter scale was that he made rural counties basically the power of a suburb.

00:01:53.000 Where rurals used to just kind of be an afterthought, he combined like 50 rural counties together, where it basically became its own waukesha.

00:02:03.000 And if you are not able to mirror that, or have that continue in special elections, it's very, very hard to win.

00:02:11.000 Now, look, it's a serious deficit right now.

00:02:15.000 Looks as if it's about, what, 100 and About 115,000.

00:02:20.000 And Blake brought up...

00:02:22.000 Yeah, I was just trying to do some of the math here.

00:02:23.000 Yeah, Blake brought up a couple of things that are really important for us to keep our eye on.

00:02:26.000 So, Waukesha County right now just dipped down below 60. Bradsham has got to be at 60-61% minimum to have a fighting chance statewide, or at least to offset Milwaukee.

00:02:42.000 Ozaukee County is a real problem.

00:02:43.000 Ozaki County is right now, like Blake mentioned, Brad's running four points down.

00:02:49.000 Again, this looks to be mostly early votes.

00:02:53.000 So I would, I think, I believe that this is early votes still, but you know, you don't want to be down in Ozaki.

00:03:00.000 You need to win Ozaki by a healthy margin on election day to help offset those Milwaukee votes.

00:03:08.000 Now, Washington has it recorded.

00:03:10.000 I'm going, I'm going to be The very blunt direct communicator.

00:03:16.000 This is not a great map for us right now, and it is demonstrating of a high prop electorate as we have built a low prop party, a 19 point deficit, and a now 137,000 vote deficit with 33% reporting.

00:03:32.000 I don't like our odds.

00:03:34.000 I'll be very honest.

00:03:35.000 It might end up getting much closer and much tighter, but we are not seeing the juice and the squeeze of high, high turnout from some of these areas that we will need.

00:03:44.000 I'm not saying that is 100% correct that we're going to lose.

00:03:47.000 I'm just going to be honest.

00:03:48.000 I'm not seeing it in the cards right now.

00:03:50.000 Blake. I want to look at the, we've talked about, you know, the betting markets.

00:03:54.000 We like to look at the betting markets because that's what people who are Willing to put their money where their mouth is, are saying.

00:04:00.000 And they're tracking what they expect the specific outcome to be.

00:04:04.000 And they will be blunt.

00:04:06.000 They don't see it as very likely we're going to win.

00:04:09.000 They are narrowing in here.

00:04:11.000 You can see all the odds for a close race are dropping.

00:04:14.000 All the odds for a super blowout.

00:04:16.000 Those have fallen away too.

00:04:17.000 They're settling in.

00:04:18.000 Their favorite is Susan Crawford by 8 to 10 points, 36%.

00:04:23.000 And they still have some odds for by more than 10, and some by a little less than 8. But that's what they're surging for right now.

00:04:33.000 Yeah, and the real problem again is, going back, Waukesha County, you have to have a dominant performance for Republicans.

00:04:41.000 You have to turn out. 0.98

00:04:43.000 We have to have as many voters out as possible for that to offset.

00:04:49.000 Green Bay has not yet reported.

00:04:51.000 Brown County has not yet reported.

00:04:53.000 That's going to be a huge thing to look at too.

00:04:56.000 That's a big population center that has shifted far right.

00:04:59.000 So Tony Weed, who's the new congressman that's up in that direction.

00:05:03.000 We've got to have a really severe, severely high turnout to help offset.

00:05:10.000 And then, you know, we talked going back to Kenosha and Racine.

00:05:13.000 Racine hasn't yet reported.

00:05:17.000 But Kenosha is not looking as good as you would want.

00:05:20.000 You would want Kenosha to be flipped right now.

00:05:23.000 Now it's up to 73% in and I'll be honest Crawford has a bigger lead than she did before. 1.00

00:05:29.000 Of all the votes?

00:05:30.000 73% of Kenosha.

00:05:33.000 73% of Kenosha County is in.

00:05:36.000 This is a county that Trump won by about 2 points.

00:05:41.000 I think it was actually three or four points and we're down there by six and that's worse than when it was at 50-50.

00:05:47.000 Yeah, and now Dane County is about 50% in and Schimel's down to 21%.

00:05:53.000 Which again, you're knocking on the door.

00:05:55.000 That's the floor.

00:05:57.000 The floor for him is like 20-21%.

00:05:59.000 We got to keep that up in order for things not to go completely haywire.

00:06:05.000 Now it's 57% and he's hanging in there at 21%.

00:06:10.000 Can't tap out yet on that.

00:06:12.000 For sure.

00:06:12.000 But again, we want to compare.

00:06:14.000 I am going again.

00:06:15.000 I'm going to have to just come in because again, I don't want to waste people's valuable time, even though it might not be good for ratings.

00:06:21.000 I give us an enormously low probability that this is going to be overcome.

00:06:25.000 I'm just going to be honest.

00:06:26.000 I'm not saying it's impossible.

00:06:27.000 I want to look at the analytics.

00:06:29.000 I want to look at the data.

00:06:30.000 And the reason being is I'm just one state by state is that the low prop voters did not show up in the numbers that we needed.

00:06:38.000 These are the working class men that showed up for Trump and then they just disappear.

00:06:43.000 These are your carpenters and your welders and they work in the cheese factories and they build Winnebago's and they are the backbone of the country and we call them phantom voters.

00:06:54.000 Donald Trump was able to basically get these people to appear.

00:06:58.000 Donald Trump was able to get them to appear and they've never been on anybody's data roll.

00:07:02.000 They've never been on a voter file.

00:07:04.000 They've never been anywhere and poof, they show up and they say, and guess what?

00:07:08.000 Wisconsin had same-day registration.

00:07:11.000 Now, hate to break it to you guys, Decision Desk, which has not been right or wrong about much of anything, has just said the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is over, defeating conservative Brad Schimel.

00:07:22.000 So, hate to break it to you guys, but that is now Decision Desk.

00:07:25.000 We'll keep an eye on here with with how the rest of This report comes out and it's it's again.

00:07:33.000 We're still hanging in there Waukesha is now at 77% Still hanging at 58% which is not enough You got to be Waukesha's got to be at 60 to 63% Again because of the size the magnitude of the county asked it's big enough Where if you win by that much which Waukesha used to win For conservatives by that much.

00:07:57.000 That is, again, the home of Scott Walker.

00:08:00.000 He lives there, not far, in Pewaukee.

00:08:03.000 Pewaukee is one of the largest couch voter voting situations that we have.

00:08:10.000 We talked about with Charlie, the loss here isn't to the radical left.

00:08:15.000 The loss is to our own people not turning out.

00:08:18.000 And some of these wards...

00:08:20.000 We lost to the couch.

00:08:22.000 Some of these wards just don't they have thousands of people who don't show up for these votes Yeah, so we're gonna in last November.

00:08:30.000 We had 3.4 million people vote This is going to be an enormously high turnout off election considering.

00:08:35.000 It's not a midterm not a general in the fall This is a spring election We're going to break 2 million votes on this it looks like it'll be 2.3 to 2.4 but that is a million missing voters where you'll be able to say if we'd had There will be 500,000 Trump voters from last November who did not show up, and it's going to be close enough that if we'd had plausibly half those people arrive, we might have won this.

00:09:06.000 But not enough of those, and you lose by a few points.

00:09:13.000 We won it in November, but we won it by 0.9%.

00:09:16.000 There was not a lot of room for it to move left at all.

00:09:21.000 So we likely had a bit of that.

00:09:23.000 And then if you have the enthusiasm gap, if you have Democrats spending more because they really want to win because they're really fired up.

00:09:30.000 And they're also just, as we say, the higher prop party right now.

00:09:34.000 They get more meaning out of politics.

00:09:36.000 They invest more of themselves into politics.

00:09:39.000 They're more likely to track every single race, however obscure it is.

00:09:46.000 they're going to be able to pick up

00:10:04.000 We need to work on the strategy of getting those people to consistently vote in Midterm elections and in these off-cycle elections that well Because if the Democrats are the high-prop party, they'll have the advantage in every election that is not a November election.

00:10:24.000 Well, we know what the solution is.

00:10:26.000 The solution that we had in Arizona was you have to put full-time bodies on the low-prop voters. 0.94

00:10:33.000 You have to have those people out for months and months and months and months.

00:10:37.000 And you have to have enough people to be able to chase enough votes to win.

00:10:42.000 You know, the forecast right now is saying it's probably going to be in the ballpark of about 1.15, 1.16 million votes that are going to be cast.

00:10:54.000 Again, these are just project projections, but 1.6 million votes, sorry, 1.16 million votes for Susan Crawford.

00:11:03.000 You've got to chase that many votes.

00:11:05.000 You've got to get out.

00:11:07.000 And this is much higher than people expected.

00:11:10.000 This race is probably going to end up being over, well over 2 million votes cast.

00:11:15.000 Um, you know, our estimation was we needed 2.2 million votes cast.

00:11:19.000 We might come out slightly underneath that.

00:11:21.000 And that's part of what's not going to help Brad Schimel is we didn't get enough, uh, election day turnout, but that is, that is where you look at this and you go, okay, well, how do you get that many people out to vote?

00:11:33.000 You've got to put that many bodies on that, on those people.

00:11:36.000 And there's simple math to it.

00:11:37.000 Want the left?

00:11:39.000 Funds effectively one full-time person to chase somewhere in the ballpark about three to four hundred votes If you want to win and again, there's not unfortunately not enough exuberance for Supreme Court races from the right for donors to to Fund that many full-time bodies But yeah,

00:12:00.000 the difference here is probably going to be 150,000 votes Which give or take is another 500 full-time people you have all have on the ground The left has those people already, and we know this because they have the unions.

00:12:12.000 They give union workers time off, they already have the C4 set up, they pay them.

00:12:16.000 Our side doesn't have that.

00:12:18.000 So you have to build it, you have to fund it, and you have to keep it permanent.

00:12:22.000 Well, and Tyler, just to piggyback on what you're saying there, what people have to understand is that States in that northern tier from Michigan over, particularly working with the labor unions over there, traditionally speaking, they have this massive Democrat infrastructure,

00:12:40.000 Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, that's existed for basically a generation at this point, where they literally have people who, as you say, are paid full-time, 24-7, 365 days a year to do Democrat politics, to work Democrat politics.

00:12:58.000 So a Donald Trump type candidate comes up, and yeah, that'll get working class people to cross the line, to get more active, to come down out of work, to take time out of their busy lives, because they're working class, they're working, to go and cast a vote for Donald Trump.

00:13:13.000 But any other Republican, like I was just saying, is going to have to work ten times harder.

00:13:17.000 You have to thread three needles to be able to get those same type of workers to come out. 0.99

00:13:23.000 Democrats on the other side, as you're saying Tyler, don't have this problem.

00:13:27.000 Democrats have, look, and you think of the Democrat worker, right?

00:13:30.000 It's so much easier for them to do that type of work, fill in an absentee ballot, fill in an early ballot, mail-in ballot, because a lot of them are more of the white collar workers, a lot of them are more of the You know, working in an office or in many cases working from home these days, you're working at universities, you're basically paid to be a Democrat, you know, paid to be a liberal 24-7 and to make more liberals like over there in Madison.

00:13:55.000 So there's there's a lot of inherent issues with having the low prop turnout when you don't have Trump on the ballot.

00:14:04.000 And these are issues, by the way, the Democrats have been working with for a long, long time.

00:14:07.000 And this is where their control of the institutions statewide in places like Wisconsin really Well, the institutions like unions, the teachers union, for example, you know, you have Did we lose Charlie for a second here?

00:14:23.000 You have the teachers union.

00:14:24.000 You have a lot of people in a lot of places who are already assembled.

00:14:29.000 Our site has to assemble these people.

00:14:31.000 You have to prepare.

00:14:33.000 You have to hire them.

00:14:34.000 They have to have jobs.

00:14:37.000 Snatch people out of thin air and be like, Oh, quit whatever job you're working in and come do this.

00:14:42.000 They have to have a job full time doing this.

00:14:44.000 Again, this is where the unions maximize, right?

00:14:46.000 They have a full time job and they go, Oh, you can take the next three months off and go campaign.

00:14:51.000 Yeah, we'll pay you.

00:14:52.000 And you get basically double dipping.

00:14:54.000 You get your normal salary, you get your time off and then you get Uh, the C4, the, the nonprofit money that they'll, they'll throw at you to go do this work and chase votes.

00:15:04.000 And our side, again, this is where we're screaming from the rooftops is if you want to, to break that threshold, if you want to break through, you're not going to have Trump on the ballot each time that makes it easier to do that.

00:15:17.000 Right. And we, that's where we got so lucky this last election.

00:15:20.000 We, we were lucky because it was easy to get people to go give money to help support Trump and then to help go chase votes for Trump.

00:15:28.000 It's a much tougher uphill climb, uphill battle with a relatively unknown candidate.

00:15:34.000 And again, Brad Schimel is awesome.

00:15:36.000 He was, he's, he is an incredible dude.

00:15:39.000 Uh, legit, easy to work for all that stuff, but people just don't know him.

00:15:43.000 Right. And so they're not going to just abandon their livelihoods to go do something for six months or a year or three months or two weeks.

00:15:51.000 Uh, so we had a, we have an incredible team that's been on the ground and in, in Wisconsin.

00:15:58.000 You know, give or take about 200 people who are working at or nearly full time and then thousands of people who were going in.

00:16:06.000 You need about, for this race to close the gap on what's there, that's in addition to what's been done.

00:16:12.000 You need another 500 full time people to be on the ground.

00:16:14.000 We just did that math.

00:16:15.000 But then you need about 10 times the amount of volunteers.

00:16:18.000 About 5,000 volunteers.

00:16:19.000 We had, uh, we, we just pulled this today.

00:16:22.000 We had about 4,000 people that were, that were helping in some capacity across Wisconsin.

00:16:26.000 That wasn't enough.

00:16:27.000 You need more.

00:16:28.000 Uh, and again, there's not a, there's not a historic nature of activism within Wisconsin and conservative politics.

00:16:35.000 You got to build that.

00:16:37.000 Um, and so that's got to keep growing and keep moving towards, I mean, we're looking at Dane County here.

00:16:42.000 21% is, you know, your, your, your floor.

00:16:48.000 For Brad Schimmel, he's hanging on by a thread, but this Waukesha number...

00:16:53.000 Oh, Ozaukee County just flipped.

00:16:55.000 That's true, yep.

00:16:56.000 Which is good, but this Waukesha number isn't where it needs to be.

00:16:59.000 That has to be at like 62-63% and holding, which is where he was, and it's really interesting because some of these other votes that came in were not super favorable to Brad Schimmel, so we'll keep looking at this and keep an eye on it.

00:17:18.000 Yeah, this is Brad.

00:17:19.000 So we'll keep talking while we're here as we're looking at these results that are coming in.

00:17:25.000 Oh, and we just got another dump here.

00:17:29.000 It looks like things have stayed pretty much even.

00:17:33.000 Trending still about 120,000 ballots down.

00:17:36.000 So you got to start figuring out where can those come from?

00:17:40.000 Waukesha County is now at 80% in, which it was about 75% just a few minutes ago.

00:17:45.000 They've also dialed Milwaukee back to 50%, whereas it was over 60% before.

00:17:52.000 So that's not great.

00:17:53.000 Not good.

00:17:54.000 Yeah. Yeah.

00:17:55.000 That's not helpful.

00:17:56.000 Dane is 55. So you're looking at about half the vote in both those places.

00:18:01.000 And I'll be honest, we're running a bit behind where we were in those counties a few months ago.

00:18:07.000 Brown County's in.

00:18:09.000 Again, not as high as you would hope.

00:18:12.000 It's not bad.

00:18:14.000 Green Bay's been kind of split.

00:18:16.000 It's a 58-42 number right now.

00:18:19.000 Only 24% of the vote is in.

00:18:21.000 You expect a pretty decent day of election showing there for Brad Schimmel.

00:18:26.000 But again, just more votes keep dumping here.

00:18:31.000 and you're moving backwards.

00:18:34.000 A few months ago.

00:18:36.000 Kenosha, not in good shape.

00:18:38.000 95% of the vote are in.

00:18:40.000 You have to win Kenosha and Racine.

00:18:43.000 And Kenosha, you're back six points right now.

00:18:46.000 You're down 3,000 votes.

00:18:48.000 That's a lot.

00:18:49.000 That's a lot for a place that you're hoping to win.

00:18:53.000 So I've been analyzing this data.

00:18:55.000 Let me just kind of repeat this, though, for everyone watching at home, is that these off-year elections are going to continue to be a challenge for our party and our movement.

00:19:05.000 Absent a change of strategy and a change of approach from the top down and also the bottom up.

00:19:11.000 Look, we can't blame working class people for not showing up.

00:19:14.000 We have to do a better job of exciting them, of finding them, and from bringing them out to vote in a full grassroots mobilization and getting the mindset right.

00:19:27.000 And let's also just appreciate President Donald Trump's ability to get these voters out.

00:19:32.000 Something that people thought was impossible.

00:19:34.000 The two people of this century that have been able to get low-propensity voters out is Barack Obama and Donald Trump.

00:19:41.000 And interestingly, they were both able to get out similar types of low-propensity voters.

00:19:45.000 The party has been remade.

00:19:48.000 The Democrats are now going to permanently enjoy this kind of high-prop coalition that they've built.

00:19:54.000 And we're still dependent on Trump's magic.

00:19:57.000 I want to ask Jack this.

00:19:58.000 Jack, theoretically, with maybe a Vice President Jay Vance being the nominee in 2028, can we win back some of these high prop voters?

00:20:08.000 And can we bring the low props to be similar to the turnout of Donald Trump?

00:20:15.000 One of those two things need to happen.

00:20:17.000 Jack, your thoughts.

00:20:19.000 Yeah, I mean, that's really the $12 billion question, isn't it, Charlie?

00:20:23.000 Yeah, you're right.

00:20:24.000 So J.D. Vance, as it stands, you know, let's say Devil's Advocate, he becomes the nominee in 2028.

00:20:31.000 He's obviously going for this, you know, and it's J.D. Vance's brand to begin with, right?

00:20:36.000 He's sort of got this, he's equal parts Like white collar and blue collar mixed into one.

00:20:42.000 Curtis Yarvin said something about how JD Vance has so many Americans within him.

00:20:47.000 And I think that's an incredible, you know, an incredible way to view it.

00:20:51.000 You know, he goes to the Marines and he's a Marine.

00:20:53.000 He goes to a bar and he's a bar.

00:20:55.000 But yet he can also sit down with like the New York Times and speak their language, go to Munich and tell off the globalists.

00:21:02.000 So I do think that he makes the articulate case for new rights, Trumpism, nationalist populism, in a way that I think wouldn't necessarily turn off those high prop voters like you're talking about that Trump typically tends to do.

00:21:19.000 But at the same time, you're getting you're getting portions of the high prop base.

00:21:23.000 But also, he doesn't have that.

00:21:25.000 He just doesn't have the same name ID.

00:21:27.000 He doesn't have the same street cred that Donald Trump does.

00:21:30.000 And who could, for the record, by the way, who could have the same level of street cred as Donald Trump with blue collar workers?

00:21:37.000 So, you know, of course, we've all seen the the, you know, the articles this week about, you know, what if what if Vance runs and Trump is on the ticket with him?

00:21:45.000 I don't think that's a good idea, by the way, because that would, you know, if Vance resigns, that would preclude himself from running and actually being president in the future.

00:21:52.000 And it's it's it's really going to be something where, again, he's going to have to be threading needles.

00:21:59.000 You know, maybe you'd look for a balancing act of having someone who has that, you know, either either blue collar appeal or also the.

00:22:05.000 Yeah, absolutely.

00:22:08.000 um someone who's able to pick up people from the middle people people and and really by the way tap into the maha movement you know i think the maha movement and and let me just you know you know step back and even bigger for a second i didn't see the maha movement getting engaged in the wisconsin election because i didn't see anyone ask the maha movement to get engaged in the 2025 wisconsin election i didn't see anyone Reach out and explain to Maha why they should be involved in a Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.

00:22:35.000 I didn't see anyone asking for their votes.

00:22:37.000 I didn't see anyone campaigning for their votes.

00:22:39.000 And I'm a big believer In people don't come out and vote for you because you say you should.

00:22:44.000 I think people come out and vote for you because you ask specific coalitions to come out for your vote.

00:22:49.000 This is something that FDR understood.

00:22:51.000 This is something that coalitions building on the Democrat side has understood for almost a hundred years now.

00:22:57.000 And I haven't seen any Republican really work this, uh, work this out up until Donald Trump put it together in starting in 2016, but then on forward in understanding that you have to go to each group specifically We're good to

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00:24:43.000 Yeah, I mean, look, in order for us to compete against the Democrats, Tyler, I want you to just brag on the great work that Turning Point Action did here.

00:24:51.000 Again, we're about results, not just activity.

00:24:54.000 So it doesn't, you know, there's no consolation prize here.

00:24:58.000 But talk about what the Democrats had on the ground in permanent infrastructure to win this Wisconsin Supreme Court seat. 0.95

00:25:06.000 Again, we just went through this, but...

00:25:08.000 You know, the Democrats have a permanent infrastructure, particularly behind the blue wall, where you have this historic union based epicenter.

00:25:15.000 And you've got unions, you've got union members.

00:25:18.000 They're vicious.

00:25:20.000 They're angry.

00:25:22.000 You know, on the left, the union bosses.

00:25:23.000 I mean, most of the unions are actually pretty split.

00:25:26.000 They're about half and half in a post Trump world here in a Trump era world where there's a lot of blue collar folks that are Republican.

00:25:34.000 But the leadership, and that's why I'm referencing the leadership, are all Democrats.

00:25:40.000 And they have the structure, the infrastructure that's already built.

00:25:42.000 And the infrastructure that's already there pays people, basically salaries and family members'salaries, to go out and do this work that we have to build from the ground up.

00:25:53.000 And again, bragging on the Turning Point Action staff, we have incredible people who have made up significant ground.

00:26:01.000 We saw that in the 2024 election for President Trump, where we chased tens of thousands of ballots that put them over the top.

00:26:09.000 But here in this...

00:26:24.000 You have to have on the ground.

00:26:26.000 And so the number that you need to make up what's projected now to be, you know, a hundred, a little over a hundred thousand vote loss, we'll see how many total votes get counted.

00:26:35.000 I mean, it looks like we're trending towards that 2.2 million that I mentioned that would put Brad Schimel in the, in the ballpark of, of having the ability to win, but you've got to chase 150,000 votes to win, you know, to have some safe padding, you know, you've got to have 500 more full-time people on the ground.

00:26:53.000 And that's it.

00:26:54.000 The way that the left pays them, Charlie, is they pay them basically full teacher salaries because you can't just hire, you know, people who will just come and go.

00:27:03.000 You can't hire off Craigslist.

00:27:04.000 You have to hire people who treat this as a profession.

00:27:08.000 They have to be people who are basically, they do hire a lot of teachers.

00:27:12.000 They hire a lot of people out of schools.

00:27:13.000 They hire a lot of union family members.

00:27:15.000 And they say, this is your job now.

00:27:17.000 You are going to build relationships in the neighborhoods that you live in, and you're going to chase these votes every election.

00:27:23.000 If it's for dog catcher, and we tell you to, you're going to chase it.

00:27:26.000 If it's for Supreme court, you're going to chase it.

00:27:28.000 If it's for president, you're going to chase it.

00:27:29.000 And they have that infrastructure built in Wisconsin.

00:27:33.000 And so we've got to match that.

00:27:35.000 There's 50 organizations the left has.

00:27:38.000 We can't survive with one, two or three of those doing small amounts of work.

00:27:42.000 You have to have.

00:27:44.000 many big organizations doing that, making up that ground, or you have to have, like I said, 40, 50 of those organizations like the left has.

00:27:52.000 And we're heading towards that.

00:27:54.000 And, you know, Charlie just pointed, poignantly said it is that this is a, we have to keep telling people, this is the mindset shift.

00:28:02.000 If you're, you're not able to do this in places like Wisconsin, you're not going to be able to do it in Pennsylvania.

00:28:08.000 That's a bigger state.

00:28:09.000 You're not going to be able to do places where we've never operated before that we have to win.

00:28:14.000 And we've got to build these things in the Sun Belt and other places where we have to defend the Trump legacy, the populist legacy, whatever you want to call it, in order to win elections for the next 5, 10, 20 years.

00:28:30.000 The Republicans need to learn how to win when Trump is not on the ballot.

00:28:34.000 And otherwise, we're going to have a more structural issue.

00:28:38.000 This isn't by no means a black pill, everybody.

00:28:41.000 This is not a...

00:28:41.000 I mean, it's not a wonderful night with Wisconsin.

00:28:45.000 We control the White House.

00:28:45.000 We prove that we can win in presidential-style elections.

00:28:48.000 And by the way, just for those of you keeping score at home, it used to be that we were always so concerned that we could never win the presidential, but we could only win the special.

00:28:58.000 So we've actually solved the far more complex high-stakes riddle.

00:29:04.000 It's Democrats that are now trying to figure out the riddle of how they win a presidential election.

00:29:08.000 Especially via the Electoral College.

00:29:11.000 So there's no doom or gloom here.

00:29:13.000 But we have to stay really focused on what are the lessons here.

00:29:18.000 Low prop is a lesson and the infrastructure is a lesson.

00:29:21.000 The amount of money that needs to be spent on full-time professional.

00:29:27.000 And I love what Tyler said there.

00:29:29.000 And someone from Chicago just sent me a message.

00:29:33.000 Charlie, what you're talking about is a grassroots professional.

00:29:36.000 It is a full-time grassroots operative.

00:29:39.000 I think that's exactly right.

00:29:40.000 I think it's very smart.

00:29:42.000 When we just say full-time people, you know, they say, what are they, like a full-time taxi driver?

00:29:46.000 No, no.

00:29:47.000 It is a grassroots professional.

00:29:49.000 It is their full-time job.

00:29:51.000 It is what they do.

00:29:52.000 From the same way, look, if you have a leak in your sink, you call a plumber.

00:29:56.000 If you have a car issue, you go to the mechanic.

00:29:59.000 If you want to win elections, you need grassroots professionals, otherwise known as community organizers.

00:30:05.000 Blake, comment on, again, this is not catastrophic.

00:30:10.000 It's a wake-up call.

00:30:11.000 It's one that we saw coming and that we knew was coming.

00:30:15.000 Blake, what are the broad lessons for the Republican movement here?

00:30:18.000 Not just going into the midterms, but on a more macro, on a more macro basis?

00:30:24.000 Sure, sure.

00:30:25.000 So especially as we've been saying, this is, it's a reflection that we have to be ready for races where Donald Trump Isn't on the ballot.

00:30:36.000 I know we've you know, he's been talking about finding a way good to go for a third term But I will tell you even if they find a way it won't be with Trump as the number one guy on the ballot because that is definitely Constitutionally out of the picture so you're going to have to have someone we have to start We have to develop the strategy for winning a post Trump GOP on a Trumpian message we hope on the Trumpian platform,

00:31:01.000 but there's clearly a singular charisma to Donald Trump that drives turnout, that really inspires people, and we haven't seen it pan out that without that you can muster a nationwide majority.

00:31:18.000 We can still win races, we can still do very well at the state level, but that tipping point of getting the national majority that can save the country, you right now need Trump.

00:31:28.000 And there's some systemic issues there that we have made that bargain of the GOP has become more populist, it's become more economically middle and even lower class, instead of having as many high-income voters.

00:31:44.000 And what that means is you've swapped out a lot of the people who care the most about politics, and that's not To say that that's a good thing.

00:31:54.000 It's often a bad thing that a person cares obsessively about politics.

00:31:58.000 We have people who care a lot about their church.

00:32:01.000 They care a lot about their civic organizations.

00:32:03.000 They care a lot about their families.

00:32:05.000 All of us have finite amounts of attention.

00:32:08.000 And if you care a ton about your church and a ton about your family, you have less amount of care to invest into politics.

00:32:15.000 And the left has a large share of the people who derive The most meaning in their life from their political engagement.

00:32:24.000 You go to church on Sunday.

00:32:26.000 They go to their Trans Lives Matter rally on Sunday, and that is church for them.

00:32:32.000 You tithe to your church.

00:32:34.000 They tithe to this race. 0.89

00:32:36.000 They would have money coming in from all across the country for this vote.

00:32:40.000 They had money going from all across the country to those Florida races.

00:32:44.000 Races they had no hope of winning.

00:32:45.000 And they got millions of dollars for it because some people just really get into that.

00:32:51.000 For now, the Democrats have a systemic advantage with people who care a ton and who are obsessive, and this will possibly get more intense because things are happening in politics that will fire them up.

00:33:06.000 They're extremely fired up about Musk.

00:33:09.000 I can see this.

00:33:10.000 I can see this in places that aren't even political, that people are all riled up about Elon Musk.

00:33:16.000 They're all riled up about Doge.

00:33:17.000 They're all riled up about this or that thing that Trump is doing.

00:33:21.000 And that will probably continue, that there's always a natural balancing force to American politics.

00:33:28.000 To give another example, this happened to Obama.

00:33:31.000 Obama wins a gigantic landslide in 2008.

00:33:35.000 He wins...

00:33:37.000 Yeah. Wiped out in the House, loses a ton of Senate seats, loses a ton more Senate seats in 2014.

00:34:00.000 Obama is this hugely popular person who gets a ton of low-prop voters to come out for him, and yet the rubber-band effect of American politics, the natural backlash his success created, essentially created the modern Republican Party at the state level.

00:34:14.000 It massively increased our power at the state level.

00:34:18.000 And I think we're seeing some manifestation of that with Trump.

00:34:22.000 They came out, we were very happy, they came out very aggressive, like a cannonball.

00:34:26.000 One executive order after another.

00:34:29.000 A lot of big things.

00:34:35.000 We're very happy that the crossings at the border have dropped to almost nothing.

00:34:38.000 But the impact of that, if you're a normal person in a normal town, you're not going to see that overnight.

00:34:43.000 You're going to see it on a macro scale of months, years, decades even.

00:34:48.000 Whereas people who have that moral trigger of they're securing the border and I'm super mad about that because I hate borders.

00:34:56.000 They're fired up now.

00:34:57.000 They are donating all the money now.

00:34:59.000 They are obsessively reading all the articles shared on Facebook, on Instagram, on Daily Kos, on wherever they get their articles these days.

00:35:07.000 They're fired up now.

00:35:09.000 They're going to be turning out to the max, and that is going to lead to defeats.

00:35:14.000 And we have to do our best to enhance organizing capacity to limit those defeats, to turn some of those defeats into victories, and to make the most out of this.

00:35:26.000 This is a loss, but I see some people, you know, commenting on our chats that, like, this is the end of the project.

00:35:33.000 It is not the end of the project.

00:35:36.000 Not even a top 10 defeat in terms of badness.

00:35:39.000 Guys, this is a singular state Supreme Court race of which we are anticipating an uphill battle.

00:35:45.000 We won the presidency in the Senate and the House back in November.

00:35:48.000 We won the top prize of American politics and Turning Point played a role and the president did it.

00:35:53.000 We're good.

00:36:00.000 Just take a deep breath.

00:36:02.000 Don't be cocky.

00:36:04.000 A little humility.

00:36:06.000 Keep your head down and keep working.

00:36:07.000 Blake, continue.

00:36:08.000 I agree with that analysis.

00:36:10.000 There's nothing catastrophic here.

00:36:11.000 Yeah, and I'll say this too.

00:36:13.000 I mean, this is even more.

00:36:14.000 It shines the light on what do we have to do, right?

00:36:18.000 Baseball season just started.

00:36:20.000 I love baseball because it's a game of adjustments and you constantly have these series going on and you get punched in the face and then the team can come back out just in the example that Charlie gave.

00:36:32.000 Correct a lot of things with the new picture and fix some things with better heading and everything else.

00:36:39.000 We have this situation now where we're looking at this and we're going, we can see very clearly what the differential is.

00:36:45.000 We can see very clearly what you have to do.

00:36:48.000 We know how many people don't show up to vote.

00:36:51.000 The question is, again, what Charlie was saying, how are you going to figure out how to get those people out to vote when Trump's not on the ballot making it easy?

00:37:00.000 Uh, because people like him, they know him, they want to show up for him.

00:37:04.000 How do you do that?

00:37:06.000 Well, it's, we know some of these things, and we'll talk about them, but we know what it takes to get some of these people out.

00:37:12.000 Anyways. Uh, and yeah, just in terms of badness, I want to emphasize, this is not even our worst defeat at the Wisconsin Supreme Court, because the one we had two years ago, that is what actually flipped it from a conservative Supreme Court to a liberal one.

00:37:27.000 This was a chance to take it back.

00:37:29.000 That would be great.

00:37:30.000 There's cases unfolding right now that are unlikely to go our way that we were hoping would go our way if we'd won this race.

00:37:36.000 This will have a real impact the reason we always compare it to the house.

00:37:39.000 This wasn't a house race, but Democrats have really Learned that oh we can use redistricting. 1.00

00:37:47.000 We can create new district maps They've developed this new weapon where what they'll do is in states with the blue Supreme Court They will sue and say actually the Constitution requires us to have a map that Democrats will always win all the house seats And the Supreme Court will be like you're right and And then they'll just remake their house maps to have more Democrat seats.

00:38:06.000 And that's why we don't have a bigger majority now.

00:38:09.000 We lost seats in, I believe, Louisiana.

00:38:11.000 We lost a seat due to that.

00:38:13.000 I think we lost some seats in North Carolina due to that.

00:38:16.000 And we'll probably lose a seat or two in Wisconsin because of that.

00:38:20.000 It's not the end of the world.

00:38:22.000 These things have a way of not mattering quite as much as you'd think because the voters don't always do what you expect them to.

00:38:30.000 But It's a loss.

00:38:32.000 It is not a utterly catastrophic loss.

00:38:35.000 We don't want to engage in catastrophic thinking here.

00:38:39.000 Well, and you make, and you make moves forward, right?

00:38:41.000 Which is you learn something from all of these things.

00:38:45.000 Today, there was a fantastic outcome again, and this, this contributes to some of it.

00:38:51.000 The statewide referendum for voter ID in Wisconsin passed with, oh, it's already done.

00:38:57.000 They've already called it.

00:38:59.000 Significantly, it's passing with huge numbers.

00:39:02.000 So it's huge numbers right now, which is really crazy if you think about it, because it's like, how does a person not understand like what they're electing for Supreme Court that supports voter ID that the left wants to completely undo?

00:39:18.000 But I mean, look, this is part of the education process, right?

00:39:21.000 Which is that message has to be clear.

00:39:24.000 You have to put more bodies on the ground to help make that message clear.

00:39:28.000 The way I best describe it is like Mary Kay sales.

00:39:32.000 Everybody knows the Mary Kay saleswoman in their neighborhood. 1.00

00:39:38.000 They know who that person is.

00:39:40.000 They understand that.

00:39:41.000 They buy something from her because they don't want to eliminate the relationship, right? 0.77

00:39:44.000 She'd go to church with her, everything else.

00:39:46.000 And they know if I need something, I'm going to go to her and, you know, she's going to knock on my door and, you know, I'm going to know her face to face.

00:39:54.000 That's what you need for elections. 0.57

00:39:55.000 You have to have that Mary Kay saleswoman type approach that, you know, bring cookies to your doorstep type of approach in the neighborly way to be able to show people what to do and what's going on and that they can rely on you for that. 0.74

00:40:14.000 We've started the process of building that.

00:40:16.000 We did that really effectively in Arizona.

00:40:17.000 We had that, the elements of that on the ground in Wisconsin, but you've got to invest into that Deeply for that to be to take hold and take root and to impact way down the line races like the Supreme Court race.

00:40:33.000 And, you know, there are there are positives right now.

00:40:36.000 I mean, we're trending towards entire counties flipping red from the last Supreme Court race.

00:40:42.000 We're likely going to see a decent amount of this.

00:40:46.000 But again, the Democrats are smart.

00:40:48.000 The left is smart.

00:40:49.000 They spend all their time, energy and resources in Dane County, for example.

00:40:53.000 Which, you can't lose Dane County by more than 21-22%, which means you've got to get those Republicans out who have given up in those places.

00:41:03.000 You've got to win by more in Waukesha.

00:41:05.000 You can't let that slide even more.

00:41:07.000 Ozaki, you know, you've got to win.

00:41:09.000 I think we lost Ozaki last Supreme Court race.

00:41:13.000 So, you know, or if we didn't, it was close.

00:41:17.000 You know, you're you're in this space now.

00:41:20.000 No, we didn't lose the last time, but it looks like we're going to far exceed.

00:41:24.000 But like Kenosha, for example, we're bringing up, you know, that is not going in enough of a good direction.

00:41:30.000 Like you've got to turn out voters that turned out for Donald Trump down in Kenosha.

00:41:34.000 You know, again, that's a real working class stretch there between Chicago and Milwaukee.

00:41:40.000 They're right along there.

00:41:41.000 And we're seeing And Kenosha, we're winning space.

00:41:45.000 I mean, we're coming back from the Obama era, but we've got to keep the foot on the gas.

00:41:51.000 Blake, do you want to give an update of some sort?

00:41:54.000 Is that what you'd like to do?

00:41:54.000 Yeah, well, people have been asking for an update.

00:41:56.000 The update is, it's not really getting any closer.

00:41:59.000 We're down by about just under 12 points.

00:42:04.000 So it has gotten better, but now we're at 62% of the vote again.

00:42:08.000 It might get below 10. It might, yeah.

00:42:10.000 We might get into that 9-10 point range.

00:42:13.000 So that's not great.

00:42:15.000 And the experts are actually saying now they think that it's going to expand, the lead's going to expand for Crawford.

00:42:22.000 Yeah, I mean, we only have 61% still in Milwaukee, so Milwaukee is apparently now behind what the overall result is.

00:42:30.000 Uh, we have most of, it looks like all of Kenosha and Racine are in.

00:42:35.000 We, those, we narrowly lost those two.

00:42:37.000 Those are places we won.

00:42:39.000 Uh, we have most of Waukesha.

00:42:41.000 And going back, you have to win.

00:42:42.000 I mean, really in a race like this, you've got to bridge the gap between the Trump voter and this race.

00:42:50.000 And I, the, the, the gap didn't close very much in Kenosha.

00:42:55.000 Uh, Racine, I think I'm going to pull it up.

00:42:58.000 I think we won that last time.

00:43:01.000 And that's, that's a problem.

00:43:03.000 That's a real problem.

00:43:04.000 Yeah, it was close.

00:43:06.000 It was very narrow, but very similar type results, but it was, it's positive.

00:43:10.000 And Brad might end up winning that, you know, when it's all said and done, cause it's within just a few hundred votes, but you gotta win these.

00:43:18.000 You gotta win these by a lot, a lot more than where you're at right now.

00:43:22.000 Brown County is kind of an interesting story because it looks like Schimel might, Completely flip the odds because last election, Dan Kelly lost that by a few thousand votes.

00:43:33.000 It looks like Brad Schimel, like Brown County is going.

00:43:37.000 Let's draw on that because Andrew's asking, how does this compare to 2023?

00:43:41.000 That might be the better comparison than just last November.

00:43:43.000 Yeah, that's what we're talking about.

00:43:43.000 So yeah, in 2023, first of all, we lost by 11 points.

00:43:50.000 So we may slightly beat that.

00:43:53.000 We're a bit behind it now, but we might improve it.

00:43:55.000 We'll see how that ends up resulting, but it'll be pretty close.

00:43:58.000 If you look at the map, a big thing that stands out, there's way less turnout in 23.

00:44:02.000 That was already, we were getting pretty engaged, talking about this is important, but they had 1.8 million votes.

00:44:09.000 We're at 1.5 million and we're not even two thirds done.

00:44:13.000 So we're going to beat the vote total from that one by 500, 600,000 votes, it looks like.

00:44:20.000 And so that's way massive increase in turnout on both sides.

00:44:25.000 For a similar outcome.

00:44:27.000 And then, yeah, looking at the individual places, we lost Kenosha by a little bit more.

00:44:33.000 We won Racine County in that one.

00:44:37.000 We're going to lose it narrowly here.

00:44:39.000 We're going to have, yeah, they lost Brown County in that one.

00:44:43.000 It overall is a pretty similar map.

00:44:45.000 Uh, We're doing better than that now, but it's been trending against, you mentioned, 20% as that sort of bare minimum threshold.

00:44:57.000 We're now at 80-20.

00:44:58.000 That's five points behind where we were in last November, for example.

00:45:04.000 And Dan Kelly only won 18% of that vote.

00:45:06.000 It was a bloodbath.

00:45:07.000 So you could end up there, and that will be part of the story, right?

00:45:11.000 Which is, you can't do that.

00:45:13.000 You can't.

00:45:14.000 You gotta be like Trump.

00:45:16.000 You gotta be a 22-23%.

00:45:18.000 Right? Which is, again, part of that bridge gapping.

00:45:22.000 You gotta lose Dane County by less as a percentage.

00:45:26.000 The problem is, like we're looking at this, only 77% of the votes are in Dane County right now.

00:45:31.000 There's a lot of votes that are gonna end up being cast a lot more than last time in Dane County.

00:45:36.000 They can make up a ton of ground in Dane County with that.

00:45:39.000 And that's what they did.

00:45:40.000 That's what they did.

00:45:41.000 They made up Some of these other places that are probably going to go light pink.

00:45:45.000 I mean, Dan Kelly lost the entire southwestern part of Wisconsin last time.

00:45:52.000 It doesn't look like Schimel's going to lose the entire southwestern part of the state.

00:45:56.000 I'll be honest, we might because the ones that are red are early turnout and a lot of the counties have trended blue a little bit over the course of tonight.

00:46:05.000 Yeah, I mean, we'll see.

00:46:07.000 I don't know.

00:46:08.000 I mean, we'll see what the outcome is.

00:46:10.000 There's still a lot of votes to count in some of those places.

00:46:12.000 They're about 50%, I think it looks like.

00:46:16.000 But, you know, I can't imagine.

00:46:18.000 I'm just looking at like Vernon County and Crawford County.

00:46:21.000 I don't think you're going to lose them, you know, lose those places.

00:46:26.000 But I mean, you might.

00:46:27.000 Who knows?

00:46:27.000 We'll see.

00:46:30.000 You know, St. Croix County's in.

00:46:32.000 Uh, pretty much all that votes there.

00:46:35.000 You've got a very similar, I think, vote turnout there.

00:46:39.000 Yeah. It's a little bit better in St. Croix County, but that's a place that you need to do better that Trump was, was doing pretty good in.

00:46:48.000 Um, yeah, I mean, story, the name of the story is like, we've got to get more of our, our low prop voters out in each of these places, particularly again, Waukesha County is a 90% now.

00:47:00.000 And we're still trending 58.42.

00:47:02.000 It's just not good enough.

00:47:03.000 Like, it's just not good enough.

00:47:05.000 You got to be at 61, 62%, which is what we were going for in Waukesha County.

00:47:10.000 That's almost exactly where Dan Kelly ended up.

00:47:14.000 And at 58.41 last time, that's not good enough.

00:47:20.000 Like, and that's a problem.

00:47:22.000 It's a real problem.

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00:48:27.000 In the end, it is all turnout.

00:48:29.000 We're already well above the number of votes that he got in Waukesha two years ago.

00:48:33.000 Oh yeah, by a lot.

00:48:35.000 All the turnout is up across the board, but their turnout is up a lot too.

00:48:40.000 And that's why we're going to lose this one.

00:48:44.000 But I say turnout is up, but again, in perspective, turnout is way down from what it was in either 2020 or in 2024.

00:48:53.000 So in all of these non-presidential contests, It's a turnout contest in terms of who loses less of the people that they got to vote in the last big election.

00:49:04.000 And it looks like they're going to lose a lesser total because they are fired up, because they are less attached to a particular candidate as opposed to just sort of being amped up in general.

00:49:19.000 And they want the win.

00:49:22.000 I think you could reduce it to they want it more right now.

00:49:25.000 Well, and here's the problem too.

00:49:27.000 Yes and no.

00:49:28.000 I will say though, it's just, yes, I think that is right.

00:49:32.000 It's just temperamentally the Democrats have remade themselves where they have a easier baseline of people that think politics and meaning are directly correlated together.

00:49:43.000 Our best voters, the ones that put Donald Trump back in the White House, they kind of hate government and they hate politics and they take massive convincing and nudging To vote at all and to get into the system, which is fine.

00:49:57.000 We just got to work through that.

00:49:58.000 And I see it all the time on campuses.

00:50:01.000 Our side asks more questions.

00:50:04.000 Our side does more research.

00:50:06.000 Our side is more thorough and just trying to figure out like, well, is this person really trustworthy?

00:50:11.000 And Trump was able to overcome all of that with just this power of personality.

00:50:16.000 And Remember, David Shore said that even with more turnout, Trump would have won 54% of that vote.

00:50:24.000 And so even more turnout would have elected Trump by more, which it's just remarkable.

00:50:31.000 So we have to figure out the turnout issue and the Democrats are building this coalition, which is a very difficult presidential coalition to keep alive.

00:50:47.000 However, in off-year elections, we're going to be in some choppy waters.

00:50:56.000 Jack, your thoughts?

00:50:58.000 Yeah, Charlie, I mean, I think that, you know, it really comes down to most Republicans don't Don't really talk about the working class.

00:51:05.000 They don't talk to the working class.

00:51:06.000 They don't really have much understanding for the working class.

00:51:09.000 When I say this, I'm talking about the professional Republican consultant class types, the people who are supposed to be doing this 24-7.

00:51:19.000 They seem to think that you can get by with just saying, like, this person is like Trump, so vote.

00:51:26.000 Without bringing up any type of Uh, direct connection with that person without creating any actual excitement behind that person and you know, or, or, or again, going to those individual members of coalitions to get them to work.

00:51:43.000 And I, I'm just going to fundamentally keep going back to this point.

00:51:46.000 The professional Republican class does not actually understand the Trump coalition, how the Trump coalition works.

00:51:55.000 They don't understand the different components of it.

00:51:57.000 They don't understand the working class part of it.

00:51:59.000 I mean, do you think when I go around Washington, D.C. and I've been all over D.C., I've been to Congress, I've gone around the different department buildings at the State Department today for the First Lady's event there, but you see these professional Republican types.

00:52:12.000 I'm not talking about the Trump admin, but I'm talking about the others.

00:52:14.000 They couldn't explain tariffs to you.

00:52:16.000 They couldn't explain what tariffs mean for the middle class.

00:52:19.000 They couldn't explain what tariffs mean for the working class.

00:52:21.000 They don't actually understand how any of this stuff works or puts together.

00:52:25.000 So when it comes to messaging, they just fall back on these things that they think are safe, like, oh, Trump, good, so vote for Trump-like guy.

00:52:35.000 The story is not there whatsoever.

00:52:38.000 There's no story that's being told.

00:52:39.000 There's no message that's being sent.

00:52:41.000 And this is what, and we wrote about this in the book last year, this is what Democrats are so good at.

00:52:45.000 What do Democrats offer? 0.97

00:52:46.000 Now, I'm not saying what do they believe, I'm not saying what are their inherent drivers, I'm talking about what do they actually offer.

00:52:52.000 They offer a positive vision of the future.

00:52:54.000 A positive vision of the future.

00:52:57.000 How many Republicans do that?

00:52:58.000 Republicans tend to define themselves by what they're against.

00:53:00.000 We're anti-abortion, we're anti-liberal, we're anti-trans, we're anti-whatever, etc, etc, etc.

00:53:05.000 But as we, and rightfully so, oppose all those things, what we're also not doing for a long time, and when you only have perhaps What, 15 seconds is like the average length of a TikTok video.

00:53:18.000 Charlie, you know better than anyone.

00:53:20.000 But it's like you have just a tiny little amount of time to get that across.

00:53:26.000 You've got To be able to convey a positive vision of the future to a potential voter or else they're just going to tune out and say, well, this guy's just angry about stuff.

00:53:36.000 This person over here, and I'm talking about your like normie average voter, this person over here, like again, if your name isn't Donald Trump and you haven't been through, you know, the 12 labors of Hercules and the, the hero's journey that Trump was on in front of the entire planet, you know, surviving, you know, assassin's bullet from a miracle by the hand of God himself, then guess what?

00:53:59.000 You have to actually go back to regular politics because regular political rules apply to you because again, your name is not Donald Trump.

00:54:07.000 And that's something that I think a lot of Republicans need to understand.

00:54:11.000 Let's let's begin to kind of wrap it here.

00:54:13.000 So any what is the the final count here?

00:54:16.000 Right now be around 11 point margin.

00:54:18.000 It's probably gonna land around that right Tyler.

00:54:20.000 Yeah, it's gonna be about 10 11 points.

00:54:23.000 It looks like You know someone could gain a little bit of ground with what is remaining But you know, I'm not so sure Dane County again still story is that he's at 80 20, which is not good enough Waukesha County is at 42 58 58.42 I should say.

00:54:41.000 Shimmel not good enough. 0.76

00:54:43.000 Ozaki's pulled out ahead pretty similarly to what we've seen.

00:54:46.000 The results, again, not good enough.

00:54:48.000 We're hoping for, you know, a five point margin or above there.

00:54:52.000 So you look like you're going to end up 10, you know, a 10 point deficit, which is really unfortunate because again, you're looking at some of these places still and going, wow, we're really close, but flipping some counties, but.

00:55:06.000 Like Blake said, the outcome was, if you started this race and you said, I mean, many of the pundits that were there on the ground said, all we've got to do is we've got to turn out an extra two, three, 400,000 votes, which we're probably going to do.

00:55:24.000 The goal of how many votes you want to turn out happened here.

00:55:29.000 The problem is the left also turned out more people.

00:55:33.000 And unfortunately, they did it and they fund those things and did it.

00:55:38.000 So I think when we look at this, it looks like it's saying about two thirds of the votes have been counted.

00:55:43.000 We're at one point six million.

00:55:44.000 We're probably going to hit about two point two million, which is exactly what two point.

00:55:49.000 Yeah, it's going to be above two point two million.

00:55:50.000 Wow. That's that's crazy.

00:55:52.000 The expectations were at that high of level.

00:55:54.000 It was going to benefit Brad Schimel more, but we're going to have to look and dive more deeply into some of these counties and say, OK, well, what happened?

00:56:02.000 Yeah, how how did we not win with a higher turnout on election day?

00:56:07.000 Well, I mean it could be high turnout, but you lose the swing voters.

00:56:10.000 That's always a possibility, too So there there's the turnout race of your base, but there's also there are voters who swing this way swing that way and They could have swung back away for any number of reasons.

00:56:23.000 I mean so Yeah a couple things first of all, I would hesitate to say that That this is a referendum on Elon or Trump or Doge.

00:56:35.000 This has been a thing for years now.

00:56:37.000 This is almost an identical Supreme Court spring election result from spring of 2023, before Elon was even on the scene and before Trump was the nominee, let alone the President of the United States.

00:56:48.000 So you got to prepare for the media narrative.

00:56:49.000 Let's put 198 up.

00:56:51.000 This is Tim Walz, and they're playing out their economic populist, let's just say, messaging.

00:57:00.000 Democrats are going to try to go all-in on economic populism. 0.94

00:57:02.000 We'll see if it works for them.

00:57:03.000 It's going to be amazing.

00:57:04.000 They're going to be economic populists trying to win high-propensity suburban voters.

00:57:08.000 Honestly, they probably could get it done.

00:57:10.000 High-propensity suburban voters at our College Educator will vote for anything.

00:57:13.000 They'll vote for their kids to become trans. 1.00

00:57:15.000 They'll vote for Black Lives Matter. 1.00

00:57:16.000 They'll vote for their police station to get burned down.

00:57:19.000 So maybe they'll do that.

00:57:19.000 I don't know.

00:57:20.000 I mean, just the idea that high-propensity voters are going to come back that read the New York Times and listen to NPR are going to come back to the middle, even though, hey, my name is Alexandria Kaiser-Cortez.

00:57:31.000 I'm going to take your home and your 401k, but I won't call you a racist.

00:57:36.000 Might work, honestly.

00:57:37.000 I know a lot of people in the suburbs of Atlanta that would love that message.

00:57:41.000 Like, well, so if I don't have a home and I don't have money, but I'm not a racist, deal.

00:57:46.000 I'll vote for you.

00:57:47.000 That's basically what the Democrats are selling.

00:57:49.000 I'm going to take all your stuff, but I won't call you a racist.

00:57:52.000 So we have to prepare for that.

00:57:54.000 And look, again, guys, we won the biggest of all the prizes.

00:57:57.000 We won the greatest accomplishment in probably American political history.

00:58:03.000 Elections like this can serve as momentary little cautionary warning signs.

00:58:09.000 Ooh, we got to fix that.

00:58:10.000 We got to rebuild that.

00:58:12.000 We got to fix that.

00:58:13.000 We got to fix that.

00:58:15.000 And if we ignore them, then they bubble up and they become massive, massive issues.

00:58:20.000 I want to also say this.

00:58:21.000 Thank you guys who have emailed us freedom at charliekirk.com and that have been watching us.

00:58:25.000 We're going to be giving away 10 signed MAGA hats.

00:58:28.000 It's actually not this one.

00:58:29.000 This is just one I have in this specific studio.

00:58:31.000 10 signed MAGA hats.

00:58:33.000 If you guys show that you are subscribed to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.

00:58:39.000 So in order to be subscribed to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast, you take out your phone and go to the podcast app.

00:58:44.000 Type in Charlie Kirk Show and screenshot it and email us proof of subscription freedom at charliekirk.com and Ms. Daisy will get 10 of the first people that do that signed hats out to you.

00:58:57.000 So we really appreciate that.

00:58:59.000 President Trump just put up a truth social.

00:59:02.000 Voter ID just approved in Wisconsin.

00:59:05.000 Democrats fought hard against this, presumably so they can cheat.

00:59:08.000 This is a big win for Republicans, maybe the biggest one of the night.

00:59:11.000 It should allow us to win Wisconsin, like I just did in the presidential election, for many years to come.

00:59:16.000 So, again, subscribe to the Charlie Kirk Show podcast, email us freedom at charliekirk.com, proof of subscription.

00:59:22.000 Let's go around the horn, guys.

00:59:23.000 Other thoughts?

00:59:24.000 Closing action items.

00:59:26.000 The grassroots right now are rather upset.

00:59:29.000 I wouldn't say that they're pissed.

00:59:31.000 I'd say they're a little bit ticked off.

00:59:33.000 with how things proceeded tonight.

00:59:36.000 I think that we need to look at the seeded equivalent benefit.

00:59:39.000 This is not us losing the House of Representatives.

00:59:41.000 It could be, but it's not.

00:59:42.000 It's definitely not us losing the United States Senate.

00:59:44.000 It's not us losing the presidency.

00:59:46.000 We didn't lose a Senate race tonight.

00:59:48.000 What we did is we got a window into the current state of our politics and things that we need to fix and sometimes that our movement needs to stop being so high on our own supply and getting back down to the fundamental basics That we can build a majoritarian mandate for governance for generations to come.

01:00:07.000 Jack, we'll go around the horn to start with you.

01:00:09.000 Yeah, so once again, just like in geopolitics, here in, you know, regular domestic politics, we learned that history is not ended.

01:00:20.000 The end of history has ended.

01:00:23.000 Politics Have not ended.

01:00:25.000 Donald Trump and the MAGA coalition are not the final end of all politics.

01:00:31.000 Turns out that public opinion and it turns out that doing the work actually still are required to win elections, especially as I just keep saying this, if your name is not Donald Trump.

01:00:42.000 You've got to work within the confines of the coalition.

01:00:45.000 You've got to work with MAHA, as well as the other members of the MAGA coalition.

01:00:51.000 All of the broad sections.

01:00:53.000 There are working class, if that had been engaged, is a huge, huge component.

01:00:58.000 The union vote, obviously very big in Wisconsin, huge up there.

01:01:02.000 You know, that's a way to get engaged people and bring them out. 0.80

01:01:05.000 All of these things need to be done.

01:01:07.000 But again, this sort of belief that, oh, you can just sort of wave your hand and the GOP consultants will say, oh, this person is like Trump and you can go vote for them, doesn't work.

01:01:16.000 It's not going to work.

01:01:17.000 You still have to actually do the work day in, day out.

01:01:20.000 You need to put funding behind people who are doing this 24/7.

01:01:25.000 The turning points, the turning point actions, the Scott Presslers, the Cliff Maloney's of the world, all of this stuff needs to be on the ground if you want elections to win.

01:01:35.000 You do still have to eat your vitamins.

01:01:37.000 You know, it's like everybody wants to, everybody, what's the old bodybuilding phrase?

01:01:41.000 Like everybody wants big muscles, but nobody wants to lift heavy things.

01:01:45.000 Basically the same thing.

01:01:46.000 Everybody wants to win the elections, but nobody wants to do the heavy lifting.

01:01:49.000 Blake. I just wanted to flag, so we have had Valsiko has been making many paid donations.

01:01:57.000 I can't read all of them because some of them are swear words, but he says, you know, that the problem is we're not arresting enough people.

01:02:04.000 I would say if you're dissatisfied with the number of arrests President Trump has been making in his second term, you might be unpleasable because he's certainly on border-related stuff that's ramped up.

01:02:17.000 I don't think that issue is being ignored.

01:02:21.000 I understand people are very frustrated with this outcome.

01:02:25.000 As we said, politics is a frustrating endeavor.

01:02:29.000 It is inherently competitive.

01:02:31.000 You lose about half of the races, and even after you win, you certainly don't really get much more than half of what you want.

01:02:39.000 There is far more failure than success in politics, and part of politics is you just have to deal with it.

01:02:47.000 You have to accept that.

01:02:48.000 You have to move on.

01:02:49.000 You have to keep fighting.

01:02:49.000 Charlie's always good on this, where he says, we have to keep fighting not because we're always going to win, not because it's necessarily that fun.

01:02:57.000 We have to keep fighting because it's the right thing to do.

01:03:00.000 And that is why we do it.

01:03:02.000 We do it because it is the right thing for the country.

01:03:05.000 It is the right thing for our families.

01:03:06.000 It is the right thing according to our belief in God.

01:03:10.000 And that is why we're going to keep going at it.

01:03:12.000 And sometimes there's going to be backlash.

01:03:15.000 Sometimes there's going to be shortfalls.

01:03:18.000 Sometimes you're going to get an outcome like tonight, which is not great.

01:03:21.000 Which I will note is still fine.

01:03:24.000 We got the voter ID passed.

01:03:26.000 We got two wins in the Florida House races.

01:03:29.000 We got wins tonight.

01:03:31.000 We just decided we didn't succeed on the most difficult thing of the night.

01:03:37.000 And it didn't work out.

01:03:38.000 That's just how it is in politics.

01:03:40.000 We will move on.

01:03:42.000 We shall try to improve our strategy and hopefully future streams will be better ones.

01:03:48.000 We were around in 2022.

01:03:51.000 2022 was a bad night, bad series of nights.

01:03:54.000 And two years later we had 2024.

01:03:57.000 That was a bad week.

01:03:59.000 That was a bad year after that.

01:04:03.000 That was not good.

01:04:07.000 Tyler, close us out.

01:04:08.000 Yeah, I was just going to say, we have no choice but to fight harder for permanent infrastructure.

01:04:14.000 If there's anything that we look at this, that the analogy that I go with, Charlie, is you can't build a tent out of paper and expect it to survive a hailstorm.

01:04:29.000 You've got, the right has built nothing permanent in most states.

01:04:35.000 And I'm just going to say it again, Almost nothing permanent in most states.

01:04:39.000 And we're seeing some massive years of hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars that have gone to Florida and Ohio that are just starting to turn because of the massive amount of investment that was put in all throughout the Obama years and prior to the Bush years and the decades that went into that.

01:04:57.000 But you've got to invest significantly into these states, put the ground forces, the infrastructure, And figure out how to build the community organizer model that Charlie, you know, and I talk about all the time and our team talks about all the time to have their relationships in order to win in each of these neighborhoods.

01:05:15.000 And that's where you turn a corner.

01:05:17.000 You know, we did not chase enough votes to win this one, but the votes were there to be chased.

01:05:23.000 We did not win this election.

01:05:26.000 We did not lose this election because we didn't turn out more voters than last time.

01:05:29.000 We turned out more voters than last time.

01:05:31.000 We hustled and we expended a ton of resources on volunteerism and timely dedication to Wisconsin, but it's got to be longer.

01:05:44.000 It's got to be deeper.

01:05:45.000 It's got to be more aggressive.

01:05:47.000 And that's what the left has done in so many cases.

01:05:50.000 And so I'm very proud of the expansion and the growth that's happened in Wisconsin, but it's got to be more.

01:05:57.000 We got to do more and we've got to focus on the other states, the key target states.

01:06:01.000 And we got to be thinking about 2032 and 2028 right now.

01:06:04.000 I know it sounds crazy, but 2028 is right around the corner and that has to frame all of our minds for 2026.

01:06:13.000 That is well said.

01:06:14.000 All right, everybody.

01:06:15.000 Thank you guys for spending time with us tonight.

01:06:17.000 Thank you, Rob and Parker, for giving us the deck.

01:06:20.000 In closing, we won the two Florida races, which is amazing.

01:06:24.000 Look, God is good.

01:06:25.000 God has a plan for all of this.

01:06:27.000 And maybe God is trying to humble us, to kick us in the rear a little bit, to build that permanent infrastructure.

01:06:33.000 We won the voter ID.

01:06:34.000 This was not a catastrophic night.

01:06:36.000 We won the two house races.

01:06:37.000 Now, if we lost those in Florida, we'd be having a much different conversation tonight.

01:06:41.000 When you think about how to take more ground and it is a perplexing problem.

01:06:45.000 It is a riddle and I would love to have you guys email us freedom at charliekirk.com how to get how to defeat a side that believes politics is their religion in an off year cycle.

01:07:00.000 That is a that is a difficult riddle to solve.

01:07:04.000 So I want to hear from you guys freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:07:07.000 It's a wake-up call.

01:07:09.000 But we still control the White House.

01:07:11.000 We control the Senate.

01:07:12.000 We control the House of Representatives.

01:07:14.000 So glory be to God.

01:07:15.000 And let's just get back to work.

01:07:17.000 Think critically about these races.

01:07:19.000 And I'll be honest, I can't believe we're doing this again.

01:07:21.000 I told the team, I said, didn't we just have an election like 140 days ago?

01:07:25.000 Feels like Christmas was yesterday.

01:07:27.000 I was like, this is too soon.

01:07:28.000 I need at least a little breathing room.

01:07:30.000 But understand, In November, we got the New Jersey governor's race.

01:07:34.000 We have the Virginia governor's race.

01:07:35.000 We got a lot of elections coming up in November.

01:07:38.000 And then a year from November, if you guys really want to get spooked, a year from November is the midterms.

01:07:45.000 And a year from late November, we will have active presidential candidates for the 2028 election.

01:07:53.000 That'll be happening a year from November, late November, year from late, early December.

01:07:59.000 We will have actively filed presidential candidates.

01:08:04.000 Let's just enjoy not always having politics and elections all the time.

01:08:08.000 Huge amount.

01:08:09.000 I think it's unhealthy how politically obsessed we are.

01:08:12.000 We should be much more focused on culture, strong families, communities.

01:08:17.000 I say that as a political guy.

01:08:19.000 It's just too much at times.

01:08:20.000 But the left wants us to be politically focused and less focused on raising kids and honoring God and having faith.

01:08:27.000 So keep those, the main thing, the main thing.

01:08:30.000 Thank you guys.

01:08:31.000 And again, subscribe to our podcast and email us freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:08:35.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

01:08:36.000 Email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:08:39.000 Thanks so much for listening and God bless.

The Charlie Kirk Show - April 02, 2025

Why We Lost in Wisconsin — Explained

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