It's election day in Wisconsin and Florida, and the stakes are massive. Is the anti-elon hate campaign working? We talk to Mark Halperin, Rich Barris, Tyler Boyer and the rest of the team.
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00:01:30.000It is election day in the great state of Wisconsin and in Florida, so you have to vote, vote, vote.
00:01:36.000In fact, we're going to be dedicating this entire hour around the special elections, what to expect, what is happening, and all of the elections across the country.
00:01:46.000Joining us now is a dear friend of the program and great American, Rich Barris, who understands this topic very, very well.
00:02:04.000You know, the one that's going to get the most attention is the obviously the state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, which is nonpartisanship, but it's really not.
00:02:13.000Right. I mean, we see some of these states that have that, and there's always a Republican or conservative line candidate and a liberal or Democratic line candidate.
00:02:22.000It's been tough for Republicans in the last couple of goes.
00:02:31.000And he won by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin, while Democrats have been winning them by pretty comfortable margins because they're credentialed voters that turn out at higher rates in these elections.
00:02:43.000And that's the real challenge for Republicans in that election today.
00:02:47.000The second one is in Florida with Fein.
00:02:50.000That's a special election in Florida's 6th congressional district.
00:02:54.000And it's a very heavily pro-Trump district.
00:03:25.000So explain to me, Rich, why the conundrum?
00:03:30.000of the low propensity and high propensity voter.
00:03:33.000Why is it that Democrats are now succeeding in special elections?
00:03:37.000When I first started my journey with Turning Point USA and Turning Point Action, I remember back in 2012, 2013, 2014, even 2017, 2018, it was actually advantage Republicans in these off elections.
00:03:51.000It would be that we would be able to kind of shock the world a little bit.
00:03:54.000I mean, one that I remember is Scott Brown defeating A Democrat for the lion of the Senate, Ted Kennedy's vacated Senate seat in Massachusetts, which actually brought the Democrats down from the 60 vote threshold to the 59 vote threshold.
00:04:12.000What has changed over the last decade where we as conservatives went from advantage in special and off elections to now significant disadvantage?
00:04:22.000The same thing when I started my career as a pollster, and this is the first time in my lifetime it's been like this.
00:04:28.000It was always that Democrats had kind of a bigger base among the adult population and the registered voter population, but likely voters gave Republicans an advantage because educated voters voted higher rates.
00:05:28.000Okay. Because it doesn't always have to be this
00:05:58.000way. Roosevelt was able to get out the Depression-era coalition in crazy election years.
00:06:05.000It's just a modern phenomenon, but it doesn't have to be the case forever.
00:06:10.000And it's just something that when we have realignments like this, Parties struggle to react to it.
00:06:15.000It's easier for Democrats to react because they just have to enjoy the vote propensity of these other voters that they're now getting, that they never used to get during the Clinton era and beyond until now, where it's not that they're really working that hard for it, Charlie.
00:06:40.000So, when you're in focus groups, Rich, and you do some of the best polling, because you do conversations, what does a Trumplican, so Trump first, Republican second, tell you when they don't want to vote in a special election?
00:06:55.000So, for example, Elon Musk coming to Green Bay, big deal, meaning that got a lot of eyeballs.
00:07:00.000So, I guarantee you there are tens of thousands of people up in beautiful Green Bay, Wisconsin, That are now aware that an election is happening.
00:07:10.000They voted for Trump, but they're making a conscious decision not to go vote for Mr. Schimmel.
00:07:17.000Why? What do they tell you in those conversations, Rich?
00:07:20.000What do you hear from them when you are dialoguing?
00:07:24.000Give us some of the essence, the raw meat of the conversations.
00:07:29.000Well, first and foremost, these people are busy and trying to make scratch and make ends meet.
00:07:34.000So you have to consider everything they say behind that, right?
00:07:39.000But the first thing is, honestly, and this is just a tough conversation Republicans have to have with themselves.
00:07:44.000They don't view Trump as a Republican.
00:07:47.000As a typical Republican, there is still very much a branding issue with Republicans that they're obviously, they've made strides with this, Charlie, right?
00:07:56.000Younger voters, for instance, they love Elon Musk.
00:08:21.000They're very skeptical of both parties and they're not in love with the party itself.
00:08:27.000They came out to vote for Trump because they did believe, you know what, he's something different.
00:08:32.000They really have to, you have to get it through their heads that voting down ballot and voting in these off cycle elections is going to help Trump.
00:08:44.000A lot of these elections, they don't really think it is directly going to impact them when in you and I both know that these elections will sometimes have the most impact on them, right?
00:12:54.000I mean, the bottom line is they have to get these people to believe and they have to stop looking.
00:12:59.000And I find, I hear this a lot when I talk to consultants, they're looking at these people as numbers.
00:13:04.000And there's very few people in the Republican movement, uh, you know, the ground game that knows if you're looking at New Jersey, for instance, where to get these voters out, they know the neighborhoods, right?
00:13:15.000They know where to go up route nine, right?
00:13:58.000And that's one of the biggest problems that I see.
00:14:01.000But bottom line is this has to be tied to Trump, but it can't be forever.
00:14:05.000This is just the groundwork that you have to lay because Trump is not going to be around forever and you're not going to be able to lean on him forever.
00:14:11.000So you have to convince these people that what Trump believes, his agenda, is what this party is now about.
00:14:24.000I'm going to also ask Mark Halpern this later in the hour.
00:14:27.000The Democrats seem to be going all in on an anti-Elon message even more so than an anti-Trump message.
00:14:34.000Is there data to support this and will it work?
00:14:37.000There is, and that's a short-term gain strategy, and they'll get those short-term gains if they're lucky, and they'll try to spin it into a greater narrative and go from there and make, you know, another decision after they get those short-term gains.
00:15:08.000Because in a way, Trump has made the Republican Party cool again for a lot of these younger people who would never vote for a Republican, you know, until the era of Trump.
00:15:19.000And they know that, and they're banking on these voters staying home.
00:15:23.000And if they do, then they can claim, see, he's unpopular with everybody.
00:15:28.000And maybe even sideline him, convince Republicans to sideline him.
00:15:32.000But it is a dumb long-term strategy because there's, look, I don't mean to sound cruel.
00:15:37.000I just speak in generalities because it's the nature of what I do.
00:15:40.000That is not a long-term viable plan because those voters that you're relying on now are not going to build your coalition in the future.
00:15:50.000So five years from now, you're going to have a problem.
00:15:52.000Ten years from now, you could have a problem.
00:15:53.000The only pushback I would have, Rich, is that If they're going to go full populist asking the question, why don't we just take $100 billion out of Elon's net worth?
00:16:01.000I'm telling you, the politics of envy is hard to defeat.
00:16:05.000Just look at the Russian Revolution, the Bolsheviks, the French.
00:17:32.000So, Mark, the obvious question is, what are the two paths in front of us?
00:17:35.000If Republicans just win the fine election in Florida, and maybe even get the upset in Wisconsin, which I find to be very unlikely, What happens?
00:17:45.000What will these special elections tell us, if anything, about this new, interesting moment in American politics?
00:17:54.000Well, look, today is big for the people of those states and for the congressional districts, and people in the national press will try to put meaning on it.
00:18:03.000Your normal mastery of expectation setting notwithstanding, I don't really have a good handle on Wisconsin.
00:18:10.000And, you know, I think you probably make the Democrats the favorite there.
00:18:13.000But Republicans, not just Elon Musk, but others have gone all out to win today.
00:18:17.000So I think a win is a win, and that's generally how you try to judge these.
00:18:20.000Now, invariably, Charlie, as you know, the losing side in any special election that the national press and others are looking at for a sign will say, our candidate was horrible.
00:18:30.000Don't read anything into this because our candidate was horrible.
00:18:33.000And sometimes that's true, sometimes it's not.
00:18:35.000But I'm not going to overread either of these results.
00:18:38.000I think if Democrats win in Florida, it would be a massive upset.
00:18:43.000I didn't talk to too many Democrats over the weekend on Monday who thought that was likely.
00:18:47.000And so I think we're looking basically at the question of Wisconsin and the special election.
00:18:51.000It's important, as I said, for the people there.
00:18:53.000But if you want me to imbue great meaning in it, it would be less from the result and more from some of the cross tabs, some of the demographics that we can see.
00:19:06.000The year after a presidential, the president's party typically doesn't do great in specials.
00:19:10.000And so The Democrats would probably be favored, but I'm not going to overreact either way.
00:19:16.000So when I visited in Wisconsin to advocate for Brad Schimel, and if anyone can hear my voice, you should go vote right now in Wisconsin for Mr. Schimel.
00:19:24.000There were some protesters, not a lot, outside of the event I did with Donald Trump Jr., but almost every single one of them, Mark, were anti-Elon signs and chants and not anti-Trump.
00:19:35.000You're the closest I can get to understanding kind of the Democrat chatter.
00:19:39.000Of course, other than talking to Gavin Newsom, but we'll put that aside.
00:19:43.000What are Democrats telling you about their newfound anti-Elon strategy?
00:19:49.000Is this more of a gut instinct that they should go against Elon?
00:19:52.000Is this driven by the base because of the anger of what he has been financing or doing?
00:19:58.000Or is there real data that is supporting their...
00:20:02.000Let's put all the physical arson and stuff aside.
00:21:51.000AOC and Bernie Sanders are drawing legitimate crowds.
00:21:54.000As someone who's in the business, I see the crowds.
00:21:56.000They're big and they're certainly that of note.
00:21:58.000We're a way out from an election, but there's something there that is worthy of thinking about.
00:22:03.000The anti-Elon effort, if properly, let's just say, played out, could result in this smash the oligarchy and a legitimate economic populist left-wing movement.
00:22:20.000That Biden and Kamala Harris were always a little afraid to fully play into.
00:22:26.000Do you see that under the surface, that sort of fight bubbling up in Democrat circles, that spirited conversation?
00:22:34.000Which way, left-wing man, to go further left or to moderate?
00:22:39.000Bring us into the room of what Democrats are saying.
00:22:42.000Right. So they need the base to win, just as the Tea Party ... provided energy for establishment Republicans in the 2010 midterms.
00:22:56.000The establishment Democrats, the more moderate Democrats, want that energy.
00:23:00.000They don't want it to define the party, just as some Republicans didn't want the Tea Party to define the party.
00:23:06.000Crowd size can tell you a lot about some things.
00:23:11.000There's a movement in the Democratic Party.
00:23:13.000It's not as big as MAGA, and it's unlikely to fuel a general election victory.
00:23:17.000But there's a movement led by Bernie Sanders that's been around since at least 2015 that is very populist.
00:23:24.000It has some commonalities on issue positions with MAGA.
00:23:27.000But it's too far to the left, I think, to be the foundation of a democratic victory in the midterms or in the next presidential.
00:23:35.000But it is energizing, and it does have a lot of very popular positions, just as MAGA and the Tea Party have a lot of very popular positions.
00:23:42.000But I'll say again, I don't think, and most of my democratic sources don't think it can be a foundation There's a ceiling on it within the general election electorate.
00:23:51.000I think what's interesting is that they are filling a vacuum, not just with the crowd size.
00:23:57.000And again, I saw Howard Dean draw big crowds in his campaign in 2004.
00:24:02.000It means that they're energizing a part of the Democratic Party and a part of the country, but not a dominant part of the country.
00:24:10.000And I think you're seeing the smartest Democrats, the ones who are really thinking about this tactically and strategically saying, That's good.
00:25:56.000I'll tell you the challenge that the Democrats have if they want to replicate what most of my moderate Democratic sources say, if they want to replicate Bill Clinton, 92, three really big differences between between now and then.
00:26:09.000One is, the Democratic Party is far to the left of where it was in 1992.
00:26:13.000So Bill Clinton's ability to move the party to the center didn't have to travel nearly the distance someone would have to do now.
00:28:28.000Look, Gavin Newsom and Elon Musk, just to tie it up, I think they share something in common, which is they're both underrated about how brilliant they are.
00:28:37.000But I think neither of them manages their public brand very well.
00:28:39.000I think Musk has allowed the left to cast him in a way that's not accurate.
00:28:43.000And I think Gavin Newsom in his talk with you was more of himself than he typically is.
00:28:48.000But I think he's not really shown people what he's about.
00:28:51.000And I think whoever the Democrats want to nominate in 2028, It's going to have to be someone who really understands personal branding and how to keep control of what they want, how they want to relate to the party and to the country.
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00:30:37.000The live video interactive platform that lets people from across the country and across the ideological spectrum be part of the conversation.
00:31:06.000Megan has been so successful along the lines of you and others who have learned you don't need an establishment platform to reach a lot of people.
00:31:15.000Megan Kelly starting her own podcast, All Star Team, and she is wonderful.
00:31:38.000You can understand what I'm saying here, and I hope you'll kind of riff on it.
00:31:41.000Bring our audience a little bit closer to the decision-making process here.
00:31:47.000Right. So I've spent a lot of time on this, and I'll try to be brief, and you follow where you wish.
00:31:52.000There's a school of thought that the president belongs to that says, The United States has been treated unfairly for a long time by other countries, and that we need to change the way tariffs work, to basically tax what they want to send to this country, because they tax formally and informally the stuff that we try to sell them.
00:32:09.000And the idea is to make America stronger around the world economically, and to get these other countries to treat us fairly.
00:32:15.000That's not the dominant view of most economists, of most politicians of either party.
00:32:19.000But President Trump has talked about this for many years.
00:32:22.000And this week, he's going to test I agree.
00:32:48.000It's a very unusual situation where it's kind of black and white.
00:32:53.000I grew up believing that free trade was better.
00:32:57.000That's how I was educated formally and as a journalist.
00:33:09.000We have grown in this country concerned generationally.
00:33:13.000About the future of our kids and our grandkids and their capacity to compete economically around the world, have as much economic opportunity as we've had.
00:33:20.000And this is an idea the president believes will help change that.
00:33:23.000And I think he's entitled to make the case and to try it out because of how strongly he supported this as a candidate.
00:33:30.000I do hope that if facts suggest this is a bad idea, he'll change his mind or at least alter it for us at least slightly.
00:33:37.000What are the politics of tariffs and are any of these blue state Rust Belt Democrats signaling support?
00:33:46.000What are the Federmans, what are the remnant of a blue state, the Rust Belt Democrat I should say, what are they signaling about this?
00:33:54.000Yeah. So 30, 40 years ago, if there were people in favor of tariffs, they were almost always Democrats.
00:34:01.000And that wing of the Democratic Party, there's some people in there, but not very much in part because there's party discipline over opposing tariffs now because Donald Trump's all in on tariffs and they think they can blame him if things go wrong in the economy for the tariffs.
00:34:15.000So there's not a lot of Democrats outspokenly in support of this.
00:34:18.000And frankly, Most Republicans, if you ask them, would say this is not good for the country.
00:34:24.000They think it's going to hurt the country overall.
00:35:08.000Well, I think I may end up being wrong.
00:35:11.000I was wrong about how aggressively the president would pursue tariffs.
00:35:14.000I was wrong about the capacity of the Republicans in Congress to pass this bill quickly with unity, even though they have a lot of disagreements about some of the details.
00:35:25.000This will contain things related to energy and deregulation.
00:35:29.000There's a lot in here that unites the Republican Party.
00:35:32.000And I think what you're seeing is, and this is an odd byproduct of the tariffs, I don't think this is by design, but there's so much worry amongst Republicans and their business allies that the tariffs are going to be bad for the economy, at least in the short run.
00:35:45.000That there's pressure now on Republicans in Congress because they can pass this bill without any Democratic votes.
00:35:50.000But they need almost every Republican to say, let's pass this, the stuff that unifies not just Republicans in Washington, but most people around the country.
00:36:09.000All those things contained in a bill that they don't need Democrats for.
00:36:12.000And I think they may pass it before the summer, which would be quite a feat.
00:36:18.000And again, would take the edge off of concern that a lot of Republicans have, that the policies the president's pursuing, and you see this in the polls, voters see it this way, that he's simply not focused enough on mission one, which is changing the terms of the Biden economy.
00:36:44.000We need to drive turnout in the great state of Wisconsin.
00:36:48.000And joining us is Brett Galashaski, I tried my best, Noah Formica, and Tyler Boyer, the great all-star team here, to walk and march us through this for the entire hour.
00:37:00.000Tyler Boyer is the COO of Turning Point Action, Noah Formica is our Pennsylvania Field Representative, and Brett is our National Enterprise Director.
00:37:24.000I'm actually sitting in Brett's office right now while he's in Milwaukee.
00:37:28.000We're sitting in the middle of the epicenter of Waukesha County, where our office is, where we have literally hundreds of people coming in and out all day today for Election Day.
00:37:40.000We've been, since last night, making Last minute phone calls to cure ballots.
00:37:46.000So that's fixing early ballots to make sure that all of our Republican voters count, all the shimmel votes count.
00:37:52.000And then we're doing that again all throughout this morning.
00:37:56.000And into the rest of the day, we're chasing every possible ballot.
00:38:01.000Where we are at right now, this is context for everyone, is two years ago, the last Supreme Court race, There was nowhere near this amount of organization and focus that's been put on this race as there should have been.
00:38:14.000Most states have different ways of doing Supreme Court elections.
00:38:19.000Some are appointed by governors and they're nominated and they're supported and voted on by the legislature.
00:38:25.000Some have elections like here in Wisconsin and also Pennsylvania.
00:38:30.000But this is really critical because this is where we've seen a ton of election laws get interfered with, undone, changed.
00:38:37.000We know here in Wisconsin, we've been saying this over and over, they've made a promise to remap The entire state of Wisconsin, specifically for the members of Congress.
00:38:49.000So you're looking at potentially losing at least two seats and just out of Wisconsin straight up because the left is wanting just to manipulate and gerrymander to help try to make Hakeem Jeffries The speaker of the house.
00:39:07.000So right now we've got, like I said, hundreds of people right here in the office working until literally the time runs out on the clock today, 8 p.m. Central.
00:39:18.000And Brett and his entire team have hosted literally over a hundred events here.
00:39:24.000We have every field staffer that we possibly can, like Noah, who's one of the greats that we have that's joining Brett right now.
00:39:31.000And so many others, and then thousands and thousands of people who have logged into the Turning Point Action application to help make those last-minute phone calls and remind everyone to vote.
00:39:53.000The environment here is much different on the ground than it was in 2023.
00:39:57.000What we have this time is long-term infrastructure that we've built at TPA.
00:40:01.000We've kept the momentum rolling from November on to now.
00:40:05.000It's not this two-month, every two-year cycle that the Republican apparatus has gotten used to, where we tear it all down just to build it back up again in a one-month sprint.
00:40:14.000We've been working at this since November 6th.
00:40:17.000We've been reopening those relationships with those low-propensity voters And talking to those people who realistically had Trump signs in their front yard in November, but had no idea up until a TPA ballot chaser talked with them that there was an election tomorrow.
00:40:32.000So you're seeing that shift in the low propensity voter habits here in Wisconsin.
00:40:37.000We've had 70 plus super chase events, including a super successful one yesterday right here where Noah and I are at the Republican Party of Milwaukee office, where we mobilized ballot chasers to hit some of those really key So, that they are aware who Brad Schimel is.
00:41:01.000They are aware of the national implications and they are aware that if we don't elect a conservative today here in Wisconsin, we will not elect a conservative US president on November 7th, 2028.
00:41:13.000Noah, you know grassroots activism better than almost anybody.
00:41:17.000The great Noah Formica, who's just a legend.
00:41:20.000What are you seeing and hearing on the ground in the great state of Wisconsin?
00:41:24.000Well, I will tell you, to start off, I am completely honored to be down here in Wisconsin.
00:41:30.000So, you know, a couple, just a week ago, we actually lost in Lancaster, a special election, which, unfortunate, we saw Low down in Ruby Red, Lancaster County, there's barely any Republican turnout.
00:41:42.000But what I'm seeing here in Wisconsin is the complete opposite.
00:41:45.000There are so many Republicans that are like, oh, I'm so absolutely ready to vote.
00:41:51.000But we're also finding, you know, as Brett said, so many people that are like, oh my gosh, I didn't even know there was an election going on.
00:41:57.000So we're constantly beating that drum every single day.
00:42:00.000Even rain or shine, when it snows, when it thunderstorms, we're talking to these people at their doors, making those phone calls.
00:42:09.000Any kind of voter contact we can make with these people.
00:42:13.000And, you know, I love investing my time down here in Wisconsin, especially because, you know, Pennsylvania, as you know, our Supreme Court is completely awful.
00:42:22.000And I want to see Wisconsin get a little better.
00:42:24.000And I think we need to save this state in order to protect Trump's mandate.
00:42:29.000What has the reaction been on the ground from voters?
00:42:32.000Is it a persuasion election or a turnout election, Noah?
00:42:36.000Um, I think it is a little bit of both.
00:42:39.000I think we need to definitely persuade some people, but what we need to also focus on a lot is we need to find our voters who necessarily, you know, think we won last cycle, so why do we need to get back out there and vote?
00:42:54.000We need to just remind them, hey, in order to protect Trump's mandate, in order to continue the great election victory we had, we need to vote every single cycle up and down that darn ballot.
00:43:05.000And we need to keep on doing it because it all starts local.
00:43:15.000It's tough in a Supreme Court race and smaller elections like this that people don't typically follow.
00:43:21.000So what was really nice in the 2024 campaign here in Wisconsin was everybody already knew President Trump and they could have a conversation about it.
00:43:30.000Part of this is very rapidly, you have to be able to describe to people, what are the issues at hand?
00:43:37.000What's going to change if they don't show up?
00:43:40.000And they need to get to know the candidate real quick.
00:43:42.000But I mean, Charlie, if we got even a portion of everyone that showed up for the 2024 election, we win this thing.
00:43:49.000So it's just a matter of getting out the vote, talking to as many people as you possibly can.
00:43:54.000And that's why I'm so proud of our team.
00:43:56.000I mean, we've literally brought in every single human body we possibly can in the state.
00:44:01.000Here in Wisconsin, we've had the largest ground force of any organization.
00:44:04.000We have really one of the only activist-oriented office buildings in the entire state that's right here in Waukesha.
00:44:12.000And when you look at the map, you get into the data, you start to see real quickly what Brett And everybody else that I've seen here, as we spend our time, Waukesha is the most highly critical place that you have to turn out votes because that is where we have the fewest people that remember to turn out for these types of elections.
00:44:32.000And when we say our fewest people, we mean our people, you know, Republicans.
00:44:37.000Could you imagine, Tyler, if we lose by 400 votes or 500 votes?
00:45:34.000If you live in Wisconsin, If you vacation in Wisconsin, if you know somebody in Wisconsin, if you've heard of somebody from Wisconsin, if you think, just start calling people in Wisconsin.
00:45:45.000Download the Turning Point Action app and start doing that right now.
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00:46:44.000Start this new year by being a hero for life.
00:47:12.000We want to empower you, the audience, to be able to make the steps necessary.
00:47:17.000So Tyler and Brett, whoever wants to go first, take a couple minutes here and thoroughly please empower the audience of how they could impact the Wisconsin race today.
00:47:28.000Please. Yeah, and Charlie, we're so grateful for so many people that have downloaded the Turning Point Action application.
00:47:34.000Anyone can do it anywhere on the Google Android Store, Google Play Store, or the Apple App Store.
00:47:43.000You go on, search for Turning Point Action.
00:47:46.000Not Turning Point USA, Turning Point Action.
00:47:51.000You can go in, and once you get in there, you download it right to your phone, tap the arrow in the top left-hand corner, input your phone number, and you're off to the races.
00:48:01.000We need people to just tap Make Calls or Send Text Messages.
00:48:06.000And when you go in there, you're going to see a button.
00:48:51.00010 calls each, and we can get out hundreds of thousands of calls, which we've been doing over the last few days.
00:48:58.000And I'll kick this over to Brett, but We have our entire team right now across the state of Wisconsin.
00:49:04.000We have every team member that we possibly could flux into Wisconsin.
00:49:08.000We've brought in hundreds and hundreds of volunteers who are out knocking doors, making calls.
00:49:13.000We have hundreds of people right here in the office who are making calls just this way.
00:49:19.000Yeah, I mean, Noah here next to me is one of hundreds of people that are here on the ground from out of state that are physically here in Wisconsin chasing ballots.
00:49:27.000There may be people listening to the show right now, Charlie, that are in Wisconsin that have been hesitant about coming out to a super chase event or hesitant about connecting with one of our TPA staffers.
00:49:42.000Now is the time to leave it all out on the field.
00:49:45.000So one of my calls to action is to anyone listening to the show, You have an ability right now to go on the TP Action app, hit Help Knock Doors, Voters Near Me, and you'll be loaded a list of the 15 closest Republican households to where you're standing.
00:50:17.000There's much more genuinity that exists there.
00:50:20.000If you own your neighborhood and if we're able to get everyone in Wisconsin to squeeze out an extra 10 votes out of their voting wards, their voting neighborhoods, that could be what we point to tonight after 8 p.m. as the definitive It is not a war of persuasion.
00:50:38.000It is a war of getting every single conservative in your neighborhood out to vote.
00:50:43.000And the TP Action app is the one-stop shop for that.
00:50:46.000So again, Wisconsinites and even people in northern Illinois that are just a short drive away from the Wisconsin border that can drive up to Kenosha, Pleasant Prairie, Bristol, Lake Geneva, Please help us.
00:51:26.000And to put this into context, two years ago, we believed that there was about 5% of the amount of voter contact than what's been made now.
00:51:38.000Worst case scenario where we're at with this is that we're probably, and Elon said this yesterday when he was on stage, he believes that his team believes that we're about 100,000 votes down.
00:51:49.000You know, our number is right in the ballpark of, worst case scenario, about 73,000 votes down.
00:51:55.000But that's about three times better than where they were at two years ago.
00:52:12.000Okay, we continue with our all-star group here, including Terry Dietrich, chair of the Waukesha County GOP, an RNC committeeman for Wisconsin.
00:52:21.000Terry, how are things on the ground in Wisconsin right now?
00:52:24.000Charlie, as usual, it's a downy brook right to the end here.
00:52:28.000A tough fight all over the state, but I think we're, I think we got the edge on it.
00:52:51.000Brad's working hard, so I think we're in good shape.
00:52:54.000I want to play a piece of tape here that alluded to something that Tyler said and then have anyone comment on this, which is the balance of the House, that if we are not successful in Wisconsin, that this very well might result in a Democrat House, which means more impeachment to Donald Trump, more subpoenas, more hearings.
00:53:14.000This is Hakeem Jeffries, who's telling you how important it is.
00:55:17.000So Hakeem Jeffries talking about that last week.
00:55:19.000This isn't the first time that we've heard that in Wisconsin.
00:55:22.000I remember when Brad Schimmel was on your show a couple weeks ago, he was talking about this.
00:55:25.000About a month ago, Susan Crawford appeared on a donor Zoom call with Reid Hoffman and some other hard lefty donors, and the theme of the Zoom call was how to win back the U.S. House of Representatives in 26 and Wisconsin's path to doing so.
00:57:40.000Shouldn't you be looking into doing that too?
00:57:45.000So, Brett, I want to go, I want to kind of throw it back to you here.
00:57:49.000What parts of the state Are going to be most consequential for us to drive turnout today?
00:57:55.000Well, so today where we are right now in western Milwaukee County and then where our TP Action office is in eastern Waukesha County is ground zero for today's election.
00:58:08.000It is a war of racking the score up in Waukesha County.
00:58:12.000Statewide candidates appear to be playing jump rope with that 60 percent line where you have to get 60 percent.
00:58:19.00058 seems to be the floor, but 60 percent really is what's going to allow you to compete statewide.
00:58:24.000And then here in Milwaukee County, if we can go from 29 percent turnout to say 31 percent turnout and lose by less, we will play that role.
00:58:32.000But right now I want to make a call to action.
00:58:35.000Anyone that's listening, that's in southwestern Wisconsin, that's congressional district.
00:58:41.000You are going to lose your congressman if you do not turn out and vote today.
00:58:45.000We have to turn out every single rural conservative and their mother.
00:58:49.000We're doing our part here in the Wow counties.
00:58:51.000This ground zero part where we have so many low propensity conservatives, so many Trump voters that didn't even realize up until a couple weeks ago that there was an election.
00:59:00.000We cannot take our foot off the gas in those counties that are Yeah, I was going to say, kind of how we're looking at this as a team is, you know, the WoW counties, so you have, we say WoW counties, I'll reiterate this for the audience.
00:59:18.000When they say WoW counties, that's three counties that are outside of Milwaukee.
00:59:21.000So you have Milwaukee County, you have Waukesha County, you have Ozaukee County, you have Washington County.
00:59:27.000And the three WoW counties around Milwaukee, if they offset Milwaukee, Blue-ness, then you're in good shape.
00:59:35.000The second part is statewide offsetting Dane County.
00:59:38.000Dane County is where University of Wisconsin-Madison is.
00:59:56.000We're feeling really good because of the leadership of guys like Terry, And the work that's been done in Waukesha and other places around Milwaukee, the question is, is are we going to make sure that we have enough turnout, deep red turnout in deep red rural counties that are going to offset Dane County and UW-Madison?
01:00:14.000And that's the work that's being done right now by not just our team, but we've got to dive in and keep reiterating, turnout must be big in western Wisconsin.
01:00:27.000Right. You know, just putting on my National Committeeman hat, I just raised funds in two hours ago to put Congressman Van Orden on a robocall going throughout the entire western Wisconsin area.
01:00:42.000So he's going to be on at nine o'clock tomorrow morning pleading with every single person from Hudson to La Crosse to Eau Claire down to Crawford County, the entire area west of Madison, which is subject to Madison Liberal Radio.
01:00:57.000He's going to be on robocalling and hitting those folks to drive that vote up.
01:01:03.000So proud of Waukesha County and the fact that we raised the funds to send out there.
01:02:04.000They like to vote when he's on the ballot.
01:02:06.000But even in the November election, you saw people show up, vote Trump, and then leave the rest of it blank.
01:02:10.000I think the Elon Musk point that you played earlier about the future of Western civilization, I actually think this is a key issue the Republicans ought to lean in on.
01:02:18.000Not just a one-off election when you're voting in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race or some congressional special election in Florida.
01:02:49.000So when we did the data dive, it's projected that a little over 300,000 conservatives will not turn out in this election.
01:02:56.000Trump won Wisconsin by about 29,000 votes.
01:02:59.000We've identified three times as many conservatives in Waukesha County alone that are projected not to turn out.
01:03:06.000Now that was obviously before we unleashed the largest ground game in conservative movement history here in Wisconsin.
01:03:13.000And then we're going to partner that with, and we have been partnering that with the largest ballot curing operation that Wisconsin has ever seen these last 24 hours.
01:03:23.000Getting those final votes, couple thousand votes here, a couple thousand votes there could mean the difference.
01:03:28.000I can tell you with a hundred Politics means more to a leftist that doesn't have friends, community, or church life.
01:03:44.000And so this is how they are able to have meaning.
01:03:48.000Get involved with your Supreme Court race.
01:03:50.000So it's very hard for people that have a vibrant connection to their local land, To their local community, to their church life, to convince them they're tired of hearing about politics all the time.
01:04:32.000So the Democrats are out saying, and we're getting these messages coming through, and they're trying to actually quiet down the election.
01:04:40.000And part of the reason for that is because they know when turnout's high, the more information that gets out there, the less likely they are to win.
01:04:47.000So as people have become more aware of this election here, the polling has tightened said dramatically.
01:04:54.000In fact, there was polling that was about a month ago that had Brad Schimel, who's running for Supreme Court here, down about eight points.
01:05:01.000The most recent polls in the last two days, there was one that had him up, there's another that had him down two points, and another that had him within about a point.
01:05:08.000And so this thing is, what that tells you is when it's within even five points in this type of election, you can have massive five, even close to 10 point swings based off of turnout.
01:05:21.000Right now, we are projecting that there's going to be higher turnout than 2023.
01:05:26.000That's a good thing for us because that means that We're going to have more people show up on our set.
01:05:32.000The left is, right now we're looking at this data, the left is cannibalized, much like Arizona for our listeners that have listened to your show all throughout this last election.
01:05:41.000We were saying this all throughout the election, the left was cannibalizing their high propensity voters with early ballots, while we were chasing lower propensity voters with early ballots.
01:05:51.000And we've done the same thing here in Wisconsin.
01:05:54.000The good news is that the number has been dramatically cut down from 2023.
01:06:00.000But The question will be, will it be enough?
01:06:03.000Because will turnout be good enough to deliver the victory today?
01:06:19.000That means that we will have done our jobs in Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties, those historically red counties that we absolutely needed to rack the score up in.
01:06:28.000If you have friends and family in Wisconsin today, Please, please, please get on the phone with them and remind them that they have until 8 p.m. Central to vote for Brad Schimmel for the Supreme Court race.
01:06:39.000Help me save our great state of Wisconsin.
01:06:43.000So I think, honestly, we're going to pull off a surprise victory.
01:06:47.000However, we all need to stay on our A-game.
01:06:50.000I know us at Turning Point Action, we're constantly doing the hard work, the hard labor to get the job done, constantly doing super chase events, constantly ballot curing and texting, calling, all those different forms of voter connection.
01:07:04.000But, you know, to kind of reiterate what Tyler said, I mean, the couch effect.
01:07:09.000We need to get those people off the couch and voting.
01:07:12.000I talked to a voter a couple days ago, a Trump voter.
01:07:15.000He had a Trump flag waving in his yard.
01:07:19.000And I told him, well, we need you to vote in order to protect Trump's mandate.
01:07:24.000And he's now voting, thankfully, but we need to continue to find these people, get them mobilized and do everything we can until the polls close.
01:07:32.000And, you know, we don't have that much time left.
01:07:35.000But my call to action for anybody in Pennsylvania right now, get on your cell phone, start making calls in our app.