The Charlie Kirk Show - WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, Ken of Charlie Kirk Show.

00:00:01.000 Vote, vote, vote!

00:00:02.000 We have a monster episode here.

00:00:04.000 We talk to Mark Halperin, Rich Barris, Tyler Boyer, and the whole team.

00:00:08.000 How big are the stakes in Wisconsin?

00:00:09.000 They're massive.

00:00:10.000 We'd go through that.

00:00:11.000 And also in Florida.

00:00:12.000 Also, is the anti-Elon hate working?

00:00:14.000 We go in with great specificity and detail about the state of Election Day.

00:00:19.000 That's right, it's Election Day all over again.

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00:01:30.000 It is election day in the great state of Wisconsin and in Florida, so you have to vote, vote, vote.

00:01:36.000 In fact, we're going to be dedicating this entire hour around the special elections, what to expect, what is happening, and all of the elections across the country.

00:01:46.000 Joining us now is a dear friend of the program and great American, Rich Barris, who understands this topic very, very well.

00:01:54.000 Rich, welcome to the program.

00:01:55.000 Rich, tell us first, Walk us through what special elections are happening today.

00:02:00.000 Well, thanks for having me as always, Charlie.

00:02:02.000 It's good to be with you.

00:02:04.000 You know, the one that's going to get the most attention is the obviously the state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, which is nonpartisanship, but it's really not.

00:02:13.000 Right. I mean, we see some of these states that have that, and there's always a Republican or conservative line candidate and a liberal or Democratic line candidate.

00:02:22.000 It's been tough for Republicans in the last couple of goes.

00:02:26.000 Hagedorn took two shots to win one.

00:02:29.000 They're always off cycle.

00:02:31.000 And he won by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin, while Democrats have been winning them by pretty comfortable margins because they're credentialed voters that turn out at higher rates in these elections.

00:02:43.000 And that's the real challenge for Republicans in that election today.

00:02:47.000 The second one is in Florida with Fein.

00:02:50.000 That's a special election in Florida's 6th congressional district.

00:02:54.000 And it's a very heavily pro-Trump district.

00:02:57.000 Again, off-cycle.

00:02:59.000 There was some polling out there that suggested that this one could be competitive.

00:03:02.000 But honestly, looking at the early vote numbers, Charlie, it looks closer than it should be or would be in a regular cycle.

00:03:10.000 But it's not looking all that competitive to me.

00:03:13.000 I mean, Republicans buy 8 to 10 if you just read the early vote, which I always caution people to do.

00:03:18.000 But that's that's what it looks like.

00:03:21.000 The media will pine about it if it's not plus 20.

00:03:24.000 You know how they roll.

00:03:25.000 So explain to me, Rich, why the conundrum?

00:03:30.000 of the low propensity and high propensity voter.

00:03:33.000 Why is it that Democrats are now succeeding in special elections?

00:03:37.000 When I first started my journey with Turning Point USA and Turning Point Action, I remember back in 2012, 2013, 2014, even 2017, 2018, it was actually advantage Republicans in these off elections.

00:03:51.000 It would be that we would be able to kind of shock the world a little bit.

00:03:54.000 I mean, one that I remember is Scott Brown defeating A Democrat for the lion of the Senate, Ted Kennedy's vacated Senate seat in Massachusetts, which actually brought the Democrats down from the 60 vote threshold to the 59 vote threshold.

00:04:12.000 What has changed over the last decade where we as conservatives went from advantage in special and off elections to now significant disadvantage?

00:04:22.000 The same thing when I started my career as a pollster, and this is the first time in my lifetime it's been like this.

00:04:28.000 It was always that Democrats had kind of a bigger base among the adult population and the registered voter population, but likely voters gave Republicans an advantage because educated voters voted higher rates.

00:04:41.000 That's really what it comes down to.

00:04:42.000 Education and age are really the two demographics that explain this.

00:04:47.000 As more liberals from the 60s and 70s get older, Charlie Chaplin, They're now seniors and they're more educated than they used to be.

00:04:56.000 Seniors vote at higher rates.

00:04:57.000 I think so.

00:05:22.000 leading into the election for president in 2024.

00:05:26.000 This became real clear.

00:05:28.000 Okay. Because it doesn't always have to be this

00:05:58.000 way. Roosevelt was able to get out the Depression-era coalition in crazy election years.

00:06:05.000 It's just a modern phenomenon, but it doesn't have to be the case forever.

00:06:10.000 And it's just something that when we have realignments like this, Parties struggle to react to it.

00:06:15.000 It's easier for Democrats to react because they just have to enjoy the vote propensity of these other voters that they're now getting, that they never used to get during the Clinton era and beyond until now, where it's not that they're really working that hard for it, Charlie.

00:06:30.000 It's just easier.

00:06:30.000 It's natural.

00:06:31.000 Where it's not for Republicans here.

00:06:34.000 And that's something that they're going to have to pick up.

00:06:36.000 You know, they're going to have to pick that ball up and run with it. 0.99

00:06:38.000 So, what can we do to change it?

00:06:40.000 So, when you're in focus groups, Rich, and you do some of the best polling, because you do conversations, what does a Trumplican, so Trump first, Republican second, tell you when they don't want to vote in a special election? 0.84

00:06:55.000 So, for example, Elon Musk coming to Green Bay, big deal, meaning that got a lot of eyeballs.

00:07:00.000 So, I guarantee you there are tens of thousands of people up in beautiful Green Bay, Wisconsin, That are now aware that an election is happening.

00:07:10.000 They voted for Trump, but they're making a conscious decision not to go vote for Mr. Schimmel.

00:07:17.000 Why? What do they tell you in those conversations, Rich?

00:07:20.000 What do you hear from them when you are dialoguing?

00:07:23.000 Get rid of all the data.

00:07:24.000 Give us some of the essence, the raw meat of the conversations.

00:07:29.000 Well, first and foremost, these people are busy and trying to make scratch and make ends meet.

00:07:34.000 So you have to consider everything they say behind that, right?

00:07:39.000 But the first thing is, honestly, and this is just a tough conversation Republicans have to have with themselves.

00:07:44.000 They don't view Trump as a Republican.

00:07:47.000 As a typical Republican, there is still very much a branding issue with Republicans that they're obviously, they've made strides with this, Charlie, right?

00:07:56.000 Younger voters, for instance, they love Elon Musk.

00:07:59.000 They like him.

00:07:59.000 But the older vote that is becoming fractured now for Republicans, he's most unpopular among them.

00:08:06.000 But bottom line is, when it comes down to it, it's an issue of trust.

00:08:10.000 So Republicans have A lot of work to do to convince these people, like if they were to vote for Trump, voting for them will do something.

00:08:20.000 It'll mean something.

00:08:21.000 They're very skeptical of both parties and they're not in love with the party itself.

00:08:27.000 They came out to vote for Trump because they did believe, you know what, he's something different.

00:08:32.000 They really have to, you have to get it through their heads that voting down ballot and voting in these off cycle elections is going to help Trump.

00:08:40.000 That's a good start.

00:08:41.000 And by the way, It will impact them.

00:08:44.000 A lot of these elections, they don't really think it is directly going to impact them when in you and I both know that these elections will sometimes have the most impact on them, right?

00:08:55.000 So they may not know it.

00:08:57.000 They may not realize it, but the local elections matter.

00:09:00.000 Supreme court will matter. 0.76

00:09:01.000 That will dictate whether or not Republicans keep or lose two house districts, probably.

00:09:05.000 So that impacts them and they just don't know that.

00:09:09.000 And you got to remember, they're just trying to get up, go to work, do their job, get paid and have a normal life.

00:09:14.000 without crazy nonsense.

00:09:15.000 And the opponent, the opposition, represents crazy nonsense.

00:09:20.000 And Trump needs help.

00:09:22.000 He can't do it on his own.

00:09:23.000 And that's really a message that they have to get.

00:09:24.000 But they have to believe it, which is probably the biggest hurdle with Republicans constantly...

00:09:31.000 Yeah, I mean, there's no other way to put it.

00:09:33.000 Constantly stabbing each other in the back, or talking about something the president doesn't support, or they have to get unified.

00:09:39.000 Everyone's got to get on the same page.

00:09:41.000 Republicans, you're out of time.

00:09:42.000 I mean, really, you have to get on the same page here.

00:09:45.000 People like you and others did a lot of hard work before this last election, Charlie, and they cannot misread the signs of this election.

00:09:56.000 They wanted a certain kind of republicanism.

00:09:58.000 It's new, and the party better roll with it.

00:10:01.000 They have a win.

00:10:02.000 And look, I hope we win in Wisconsin.

00:10:07.000 The betting markets right now for what's happening tonight are very unkind to us, so I hope that there's a big turnout.

00:10:14.000 But at the same time, we must understand that President Trump is a once-in-a-century, once-in-a-many-century political force.

00:10:22.000 We have not seen anything like it, and we may never again.

00:10:25.000 So if we as Republicans are too dependent on the Trump, let's just say, movement, then we're going to have some problems.

00:10:35.000 Rich, tell us about the Florida special election.

00:10:37.000 What's going on there?

00:10:38.000 So, basically this weekend, which is always good, the president came in and gave, fine, as the Republican, a tele-rally, basically.

00:10:47.000 There was an internal poll that was conducted by Fabrizio and Associates.

00:10:53.000 He polls for some of the President's PAC, if I remember correctly.

00:10:56.000 The Wall Street Journal does a jointly conducted poll with them, as well with the Democrat.

00:11:01.000 And he did have the Republican down, and it was all about turnout.

00:11:05.000 However, I mean, Charlie, we have a good gauge on early voting in Florida now.

00:11:10.000 We have absentee ballots and you have in-person voting.

00:11:13.000 And we can see, is it not as big of an advantage as Republicans would like?

00:11:18.000 Sure. But we do have those numbers bipartisanship. 0.97

00:11:22.000 And that's something we don't have in Wisconsin.

00:11:24.000 So there's also not a ton of crossover vote in the state of Florida anymore.

00:11:29.000 We just don't see it.

00:11:30.000 We don't see a ton of Republicans, you know, 12, 13, 14% voting for the Democrat or vice versa.

00:11:36.000 So it does look like the Republican is obviously favored there.

00:11:40.000 It's just that again, because it is an off cycle, it's not going to be the margin that they would like or that the president would get.

00:11:47.000 For instance, I mean, one in this district overwhelmingly, this is a Trump double digit district.

00:11:52.000 But again, it's Florida, and Florida is difficult to poll.

00:11:57.000 I would point people back to the polls in 2024.

00:12:00.000 I believe we were the only poll that had Trump winning Florida by double digits.

00:12:04.000 Everybody else had him winning by four to six points.

00:12:07.000 And that area of the state specifically, It's difficult to poll period, let alone when it's a low turnout election.

00:12:14.000 So, you know, looking at the early vote numbers, Charlie, it does look like the Republican is going to win.

00:12:20.000 Fine. It's going to win.

00:12:21.000 It's just by how much is the question.

00:12:23.000 So well, that a fundraising advantage, by the way, as Democrats almost always do.

00:12:28.000 If you were to be the architect, Rich, of the Republican approach for the rest of this calendar year.

00:12:34.000 Because people say midterms, midterms, midterms.

00:12:36.000 Timeout, everyone.

00:12:37.000 We have a New Jersey governor's race.

00:12:39.000 We have a Virginia governor's race.

00:12:41.000 We have other specials that are going to pop up.

00:12:44.000 What would your approach be?

00:12:46.000 What would be the strategy that you would like to see Republicans and the Trump White House embrace for the remainder of this year?

00:12:52.000 All politics is local.

00:12:54.000 I mean, the bottom line is they have to get these people to believe and they have to stop looking.

00:12:59.000 And I find, I hear this a lot when I talk to consultants, they're looking at these people as numbers.

00:13:04.000 And there's very few people in the Republican movement, uh, you know, the ground game that knows if you're looking at New Jersey, for instance, where to get these voters out, they know the neighborhoods, right?

00:13:15.000 They know where to go up route nine, right?

00:13:17.000 It's not just a number.

00:13:19.000 What neighborhood do we have to go to to get these people out?

00:13:22.000 And they got to get a little bit out of their comfort zone, Charlie.

00:13:24.000 I mean, they're using a lot of these same old, same old people. 0.99

00:13:29.000 You know, you tried to build your organization during before the election from the ground up.

00:13:35.000 So, you know, you've seen what Republicans are dealing with.

00:13:37.000 Just not good enough.

00:13:38.000 You know, there's an element to the Republican Party, the vote now, the base that they're not used to.

00:13:46.000 These aren't their people.

00:13:58.000 And that's one of the biggest problems that I see.

00:14:01.000 But bottom line is this has to be tied to Trump, but it can't be forever.

00:14:05.000 This is just the groundwork that you have to lay because Trump is not going to be around forever and you're not going to be able to lean on him forever.

00:14:11.000 So you have to convince these people that what Trump believes, his agenda, is what this party is now about.

00:14:17.000 I think that's right.

00:14:22.000 So let me ask you one question.

00:14:24.000 I'm going to also ask Mark Halpern this later in the hour.

00:14:27.000 The Democrats seem to be going all in on an anti-Elon message even more so than an anti-Trump message.

00:14:34.000 Is there data to support this and will it work?

00:14:37.000 There is, and that's a short-term gain strategy, and they'll get those short-term gains if they're lucky, and they'll try to spin it into a greater narrative and go from there and make, you know, another decision after they get those short-term gains.

00:14:50.000 And why am I saying that?

00:14:51.000 Because Elon is the most unpopular among older voters.

00:14:55.000 Among, again, like I said, younger voters who they know are difficult to get out in these elections, he's actually pretty popular.

00:15:02.000 So it's tough to get him with that.

00:15:05.000 It's a stupid long-term strategy.

00:15:08.000 It is.

00:15:08.000 Because in a way, Trump has made the Republican Party cool again for a lot of these younger people who would never vote for a Republican, you know, until the era of Trump.

00:15:19.000 And they know that, and they're banking on these voters staying home.

00:15:23.000 And if they do, then they can claim, see, he's unpopular with everybody.

00:15:27.000 He's toxic.

00:15:28.000 And maybe even sideline him, convince Republicans to sideline him.

00:15:32.000 But it is a dumb long-term strategy because there's, look, I don't mean to sound cruel.

00:15:37.000 I just speak in generalities because it's the nature of what I do.

00:15:40.000 That is not a long-term viable plan because those voters that you're relying on now are not going to build your coalition in the future.

00:15:50.000 So five years from now, you're going to have a problem.

00:15:52.000 Ten years from now, you could have a problem.

00:15:53.000 The only pushback I would have, Rich, is that If they're going to go full populist asking the question, why don't we just take $100 billion out of Elon's net worth?

00:16:01.000 I'm telling you, the politics of envy is hard to defeat.

00:16:05.000 Just look at the Russian Revolution, the Bolsheviks, the French.

00:16:08.000 That is a good point.

00:16:09.000 If they lean in on that.

00:16:10.000 Be careful.

00:16:11.000 Rich, thank you very much.

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00:17:18.000 people. you Mark, great to see you.

00:17:28.000 Good to see you, sir.

00:17:29.000 Happy Election Day.

00:17:30.000 Thank you, absolutely.

00:17:32.000 So, Mark, the obvious question is, what are the two paths in front of us?

00:17:35.000 If Republicans just win the fine election in Florida, and maybe even get the upset in Wisconsin, which I find to be very unlikely, What happens?

00:17:44.000 Paint the picture here.

00:17:45.000 What will these special elections tell us, if anything, about this new, interesting moment in American politics?

00:17:54.000 Well, look, today is big for the people of those states and for the congressional districts, and people in the national press will try to put meaning on it.

00:18:03.000 Your normal mastery of expectation setting notwithstanding, I don't really have a good handle on Wisconsin.

00:18:10.000 And, you know, I think you probably make the Democrats the favorite there.

00:18:13.000 But Republicans, not just Elon Musk, but others have gone all out to win today.

00:18:17.000 So I think a win is a win, and that's generally how you try to judge these.

00:18:20.000 Now, invariably, Charlie, as you know, the losing side in any special election that the national press and others are looking at for a sign will say, our candidate was horrible.

00:18:30.000 Don't read anything into this because our candidate was horrible.

00:18:33.000 And sometimes that's true, sometimes it's not.

00:18:35.000 But I'm not going to overread either of these results.

00:18:38.000 I think if Democrats win in Florida, it would be a massive upset.

00:18:43.000 I didn't talk to too many Democrats over the weekend on Monday who thought that was likely.

00:18:47.000 And so I think we're looking basically at the question of Wisconsin and the special election.

00:18:51.000 It's important, as I said, for the people there.

00:18:53.000 But if you want me to imbue great meaning in it, it would be less from the result and more from some of the cross tabs, some of the demographics that we can see.

00:19:03.000 How did the winner win?

00:19:06.000 The year after a presidential, the president's party typically doesn't do great in specials.

00:19:10.000 And so The Democrats would probably be favored, but I'm not going to overreact either way.

00:19:16.000 So when I visited in Wisconsin to advocate for Brad Schimel, and if anyone can hear my voice, you should go vote right now in Wisconsin for Mr. Schimel.

00:19:24.000 There were some protesters, not a lot, outside of the event I did with Donald Trump Jr., but almost every single one of them, Mark, were anti-Elon signs and chants and not anti-Trump.

00:19:35.000 You're the closest I can get to understanding kind of the Democrat chatter.

00:19:39.000 Of course, other than talking to Gavin Newsom, but we'll put that aside.

00:19:43.000 What are Democrats telling you about their newfound anti-Elon strategy?

00:19:49.000 Is this more of a gut instinct that they should go against Elon?

00:19:52.000 Is this driven by the base because of the anger of what he has been financing or doing?

00:19:58.000 Or is there real data that is supporting their...

00:20:02.000 Let's put all the physical arson and stuff aside.

00:20:05.000 That has no place in our politics.

00:20:07.000 I just mean the the political messaging where they're going all in on a referendum on the world's richest man.

00:20:16.000 Yes, yes.

00:20:16.000 And sort of are the answers.

00:20:18.000 There's a bit of data, but it's not conclusive.

00:20:21.000 And of course, are there?

00:20:22.000 There are not a lot of people who love Trump and hate Musk or vice versa because they've become so associated with each other.

00:20:29.000 I think the reason you see more targeting of Musk and some of that's what we call astroturf.

00:20:35.000 Some of that is ginned up.

00:20:37.000 I think it's because going against Trump is an old story for them and one that they haven't done too well at.

00:20:47.000 Musk is new, and Musk is, I say this advisedly, he's less disciplined than Trump, right?

00:20:53.000 So Musk gives them something daily to deal with.

00:20:57.000 And politics is about emotion, and emotion can be ginned up by personality.

00:21:01.000 They don't seem to like his personality, particularly women. 0.98

00:21:05.000 It's ginned up by events, and Musk is in the news regularly and saying things that gin them up.

00:21:10.000 And it's ginned up by themes that really hit the passion points of Democrats.

00:21:16.000 So you've got a rich guy who says careless things about Social Security and other things.

00:21:21.000 And you've got a guy who has become a villain for the blue America.

00:21:27.000 And I think you'll see In some cases, I'm almost certain you'll see some Democrats saying, you know what, we went too far in on Musk.

00:21:36.000 We should have focused more on policy and on Trump and on maybe some of the people, other people in the government.

00:21:43.000 But Musk is a big target for them because he is famous and he is a billionaire.

00:21:48.000 So that invites another question.

00:21:51.000 AOC and Bernie Sanders are drawing legitimate crowds.

00:21:54.000 As someone who's in the business, I see the crowds.

00:21:56.000 They're big and they're certainly that of note.

00:21:58.000 We're a way out from an election, but there's something there that is worthy of thinking about.

00:22:03.000 The anti-Elon effort, if properly, let's just say, played out, could result in this smash the oligarchy and a legitimate economic populist left-wing movement.

00:22:20.000 That Biden and Kamala Harris were always a little afraid to fully play into.

00:22:26.000 Do you see that under the surface, that sort of fight bubbling up in Democrat circles, that spirited conversation?

00:22:34.000 Which way, left-wing man, to go further left or to moderate?

00:22:39.000 Bring us into the room of what Democrats are saying.

00:22:42.000 Right. So they need the base to win, just as the Tea Party ... provided energy for establishment Republicans in the 2010 midterms.

00:22:55.000 The Democrats want that.

00:22:56.000 The establishment Democrats, the more moderate Democrats, want that energy.

00:23:00.000 They don't want it to define the party, just as some Republicans didn't want the Tea Party to define the party.

00:23:06.000 Crowd size can tell you a lot about some things.

00:23:11.000 There's a movement in the Democratic Party.

00:23:13.000 It's not as big as MAGA, and it's unlikely to fuel a general election victory.

00:23:17.000 But there's a movement led by Bernie Sanders that's been around since at least 2015 that is very populist.

00:23:24.000 It has some commonalities on issue positions with MAGA.

00:23:27.000 But it's too far to the left, I think, to be the foundation of a democratic victory in the midterms or in the next presidential.

00:23:35.000 But it is energizing, and it does have a lot of very popular positions, just as MAGA and the Tea Party have a lot of very popular positions.

00:23:42.000 But I'll say again, I don't think, and most of my democratic sources don't think it can be a foundation There's a ceiling on it within the general election electorate.

00:23:51.000 I think what's interesting is that they are filling a vacuum, not just with the crowd size.

00:23:57.000 And again, I saw Howard Dean draw big crowds in his campaign in 2004.

00:24:02.000 It means that they're energizing a part of the Democratic Party and a part of the country, but not a dominant part of the country.

00:24:10.000 And I think you're seeing the smartest Democrats, the ones who are really thinking about this tactically and strategically saying, That's good.

00:24:17.000 That energy is good.

00:24:18.000 Let's harness that.

00:24:19.000 But they can't define us.

00:24:20.000 And unfortunately for them, there's no counterweight right now.

00:24:23.000 They are the only game in town for the Democrats that's energized in a way that's foundational.

00:24:29.000 But again, they've got to solve that Rubik's Cube.

00:24:31.000 They have to have that energy, those personalities, but they can't be the leaders or they won't win.

00:24:37.000 The two issues that seems to be a little bit of bubbling up of conflict is on the radical trans stuff.

00:24:44.000 Especially in women's sports with Gavin Newsom and then on the immigration issue.

00:24:49.000 Are Democrats thinking of moderating on this or is this just Gavin doing his podcast and doing this performatively or rhetorically?

00:24:59.000 I'm asking for a simple reason because they're so out of alignment with the American people that we are owning the 80-20 issues it seems.

00:25:09.000 With no desire for them to even come to how Bill Clinton did in 92.

00:25:15.000 So I guess my question is this.

00:25:18.000 Do you think this will be a Democrat moment?

00:25:21.000 Because you understand the history better than anybody else, Mark.

00:25:23.000 Where the Democrat nominee will be one that goes to war with their base on two or three major issues.

00:25:30.000 Saying that we're not going to embrace open borders.

00:25:34.000 This trans thing is out of control. 1.00

00:25:35.000 No defund the police.

00:25:37.000 Or will it be...

00:25:39.000 A McGovern election where the base triumphs in an all-night party.

00:25:45.000 I think it was in Miami they had their convention that year, if I'm not mistaken.

00:25:49.000 And they just go all in.

00:25:52.000 Where do you think the temperature is?

00:25:53.000 Or is it too early to tell?

00:25:54.000 It's too early to tell.

00:25:56.000 I'll tell you the challenge that the Democrats have if they want to replicate what most of my moderate Democratic sources say, if they want to replicate Bill Clinton, 92, three really big differences between between now and then.

00:26:09.000 One is, the Democratic Party is far to the left of where it was in 1992.

00:26:13.000 So Bill Clinton's ability to move the party to the center didn't have to travel nearly the distance someone would have to do now.

00:26:21.000 That's number one.

00:26:22.000 Number two, Bill Clinton was the politician of a generation or more in his skill.

00:26:29.000 And so, for instance, he took positions in 1992 that were absolutely against the base of the Democratic Party.

00:26:36.000 Unimaginable. That a normally skilled politician.

00:26:39.000 So he was for the death penalty.

00:26:41.000 He was for right to work.

00:26:42.000 He was for welfare reform.

00:26:43.000 He was for NAFTA.

00:26:45.000 He was for a range of positions that were at a step with the base, but he pulled it off.

00:26:52.000 And then the last difference, I think, is also pretty fundamental, which is right now the Democratic Party is not hungry to win.

00:27:01.000 The way they were in 1992.

00:27:03.000 In 1992, they'd been shut out of the White House since 76. And they basically said, no more.

00:27:09.000 If we don't nominate a sensible person who can get on the right side of some 80-20 issues, we will be shut out again.

00:27:17.000 And then we will go four or eight more years without winning the White House back.

00:27:21.000 They're not as hungry right now.

00:27:23.000 They're still really beholden to the base.

00:27:25.000 They had the White House a year ago.

00:27:27.000 So it's not some That's such a smart point.

00:27:50.000 I haven't heard anybody say that, Mark, because it seems from us on the right, it looks like the left is very desperate.

00:27:56.000 They're willing to do whatever it takes.

00:27:57.000 What you're saying is they're not quite as desperate yet.

00:28:00.000 They're not as desperate to forsake the key and core radical left elements of their new coalition.

00:28:09.000 And I don't even think it's I don't think it's close.

00:28:11.000 I don't think they're even close to there.

00:28:13.000 That's remarkable.

00:28:14.000 And again, it's bad for the country as a conservative, I would say.

00:28:18.000 But I guess for our own political ambitions, I guess they can keep on embracing these.

00:28:24.000 Yeah. Out of touch issues.

00:28:26.000 30 seconds, Mark.

00:28:27.000 Yes. Yeah.

00:28:28.000 Look, Gavin Newsom and Elon Musk, just to tie it up, I think they share something in common, which is they're both underrated about how brilliant they are.

00:28:35.000 They both see things pretty clearly.

00:28:37.000 But I think neither of them manages their public brand very well.

00:28:39.000 I think Musk has allowed the left to cast him in a way that's not accurate.

00:28:43.000 And I think Gavin Newsom in his talk with you was more of himself than he typically is.

00:28:48.000 But I think he's not really shown people what he's about.

00:28:51.000 And I think whoever the Democrats want to nominate in 2028, It's going to have to be someone who really understands personal branding and how to keep control of what they want, how they want to relate to the party and to the country.

00:29:04.000 Charlie Kirk here.

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00:29:55.000 Get 10% off my personally curated bundles by visiting byrna.com slash charlie.

00:30:01.000 That's byrna.com slash charlie.

00:30:04.000 Mark, I gotta give you credit.

00:30:07.000 The subject Well, I write a newsletter that's pretty expensive.

00:30:19.000 You don't have to be quite as rich as Charlie Kirk to afford it, but it is pretty expensive.

00:30:23.000 Wide World of News.

00:30:24.000 Go to walkingdocs.com.

00:30:27.000 If you want to read about how to get it, what's included.

00:30:30.000 And I write that every day.

00:30:32.000 Then I'm managing editor, editor-in-chief rather.

00:30:35.000 I'm co-founder of Two Way.

00:30:37.000 The live video interactive platform that lets people from across the country and across the ideological spectrum be part of the conversation.

00:30:45.000 It's got a lot of politics.

00:30:47.000 It's also got other things.

00:30:49.000 It's unique conversations that make you part of the conversation.

00:30:52.000 You can go to twoway.tv on YouTube and learn more about that.

00:30:55.000 And soon, Charlie Kirk will be on that show.

00:30:58.000 I will.

00:30:58.000 That is going to happen.

00:31:00.000 And you joined the Megyn Kelly Consortium.

00:31:02.000 Is that right?

00:31:03.000 Congratulations. The last thing I was Thank you.

00:31:05.000 Last thing I was going to tap.

00:31:06.000 Megan has been so successful along the lines of you and others who have learned you don't need an establishment platform to reach a lot of people.

00:31:15.000 Megan Kelly starting her own podcast, All Star Team, and she is wonderful.

00:31:19.000 We are big Megan Kelly fans.

00:31:21.000 So, Mark, bring me into the room.

00:31:23.000 I think you can actually say stuff that I'm not even able to say on this topic, so I'm hoping that you can.

00:31:31.000 What is the calculus behind the tariffs?

00:31:34.000 What is the White House saying about it?

00:31:36.000 What is Capitol Hill?

00:31:38.000 You can understand what I'm saying here, and I hope you'll kind of riff on it.

00:31:41.000 Bring our audience a little bit closer to the decision-making process here.

00:31:47.000 Right. So I've spent a lot of time on this, and I'll try to be brief, and you follow where you wish.

00:31:52.000 There's a school of thought that the president belongs to that says, The United States has been treated unfairly for a long time by other countries, and that we need to change the way tariffs work, to basically tax what they want to send to this country, because they tax formally and informally the stuff that we try to sell them.

00:32:09.000 And the idea is to make America stronger around the world economically, and to get these other countries to treat us fairly.

00:32:15.000 That's not the dominant view of most economists, of most politicians of either party.

00:32:19.000 But President Trump has talked about this for many years.

00:32:22.000 And this week, he's going to test I agree.

00:32:48.000 It's a very unusual situation where it's kind of black and white.

00:32:53.000 I grew up believing that free trade was better.

00:32:57.000 That's how I was educated formally and as a journalist.

00:33:01.000 But the president won on this.

00:33:03.000 And I know, as I said, very smart people who are all on board for this.

00:33:07.000 I will say this.

00:33:09.000 We have grown in this country concerned generationally.

00:33:13.000 About the future of our kids and our grandkids and their capacity to compete economically around the world, have as much economic opportunity as we've had.

00:33:20.000 And this is an idea the president believes will help change that.

00:33:23.000 And I think he's entitled to make the case and to try it out because of how strongly he supported this as a candidate.

00:33:30.000 I do hope that if facts suggest this is a bad idea, he'll change his mind or at least alter it for us at least slightly.

00:33:37.000 What are the politics of tariffs and are any of these blue state Rust Belt Democrats signaling support?

00:33:46.000 What are the Federmans, what are the remnant of a blue state, the Rust Belt Democrat I should say, what are they signaling about this? 0.51

00:33:54.000 Yeah. So 30, 40 years ago, if there were people in favor of tariffs, they were almost always Democrats.

00:34:01.000 And that wing of the Democratic Party, there's some people in there, but not very much in part because there's party discipline over opposing tariffs now because Donald Trump's all in on tariffs and they think they can blame him if things go wrong in the economy for the tariffs.

00:34:15.000 So there's not a lot of Democrats outspokenly in support of this.

00:34:18.000 And frankly, Most Republicans, if you ask them, would say this is not good for the country.

00:34:24.000 They think it's going to hurt the country overall.

00:34:25.000 Most think it will hurt their states.

00:34:27.000 And most have spent, you know, Monday into Tuesday lobbying the president directly or his senior team saying, please give us an exception.

00:34:35.000 Don't, don't, don't put tariffs on things that will hurt people in their state or their constituency.

00:34:40.000 So I don't think there's a lot of, um, In closing here, the big reconciliation bill, any inside info, whispers?

00:35:00.000 We still haven't seen any text.

00:35:02.000 What can we expect from Capitol Hill that hasn't done very much lately?

00:35:07.000 What can we expect?

00:35:08.000 Well, I think I may end up being wrong.

00:35:11.000 I was wrong about how aggressively the president would pursue tariffs.

00:35:14.000 I was wrong about the capacity of the Republicans in Congress to pass this bill quickly with unity, even though they have a lot of disagreements about some of the details.

00:35:23.000 This will contain tax cuts.

00:35:25.000 This will contain things related to energy and deregulation.

00:35:29.000 There's a lot in here that unites the Republican Party.

00:35:32.000 And I think what you're seeing is, and this is an odd byproduct of the tariffs, I don't think this is by design, but there's so much worry amongst Republicans and their business allies that the tariffs are going to be bad for the economy, at least in the short run.

00:35:45.000 That there's pressure now on Republicans in Congress because they can pass this bill without any Democratic votes.

00:35:50.000 But they need almost every Republican to say, let's pass this, the stuff that unifies not just Republicans in Washington, but most people around the country.

00:35:58.000 Let's pass tax cuts.

00:35:59.000 Let's not allow there to be a tax increase because the expiration of the original Trump tax cuts.

00:36:04.000 Let's deregulate.

00:36:06.000 Let's, let's produce more energy. 0.96

00:36:07.000 Let's deal with the border.

00:36:09.000 All those things contained in a bill that they don't need Democrats for.

00:36:12.000 And I think they may pass it before the summer, which would be quite a feat.

00:36:18.000 And again, would take the edge off of concern that a lot of Republicans have, that the policies the president's pursuing, and you see this in the polls, voters see it this way, that he's simply not focused enough on mission one, which is changing the terms of the Biden economy.

00:36:32.000 Mark, thank you so much.

00:36:33.000 Everyone, it's Election Day.

00:36:34.000 Keep your eyes on the results.

00:36:35.000 Mark, thanks so much.

00:36:36.000 Check out twoway.tv.

00:36:40.000 It is Election Day.

00:36:42.000 Election Day.

00:36:43.000 Election Day.

00:36:44.000 We need to drive turnout in the great state of Wisconsin.

00:36:48.000 And joining us is Brett Galashaski, I tried my best, Noah Formica, and Tyler Boyer, the great all-star team here, to walk and march us through this for the entire hour.

00:37:00.000 Tyler Boyer is the COO of Turning Point Action, Noah Formica is our Pennsylvania Field Representative, and Brett is our National Enterprise Director.

00:37:08.000 Let me start with you, Tyler.

00:37:09.000 Tyler, give us a report on the front lines from Wisconsin and the need for everyone to go vote today.

00:37:13.000 Charlie, everything's looking good.

00:37:15.000 I mean, about as good as you could expect it to be at this point, and looking a lot better than we were at two years ago in Wisconsin.

00:37:22.000 And we'll get into Brett.

00:37:24.000 I'm actually sitting in Brett's office right now while he's in Milwaukee.

00:37:28.000 We're sitting in the middle of the epicenter of Waukesha County, where our office is, where we have literally hundreds of people coming in and out all day today for Election Day.

00:37:40.000 We've been, since last night, making Last minute phone calls to cure ballots.

00:37:46.000 So that's fixing early ballots to make sure that all of our Republican voters count, all the shimmel votes count. 0.95

00:37:52.000 And then we're doing that again all throughout this morning.

00:37:56.000 And into the rest of the day, we're chasing every possible ballot.

00:38:01.000 Where we are at right now, this is context for everyone, is two years ago, the last Supreme Court race, There was nowhere near this amount of organization and focus that's been put on this race as there should have been.

00:38:14.000 Most states have different ways of doing Supreme Court elections.

00:38:19.000 Some are appointed by governors and they're nominated and they're supported and voted on by the legislature.

00:38:25.000 Some have elections like here in Wisconsin and also Pennsylvania.

00:38:30.000 But this is really critical because this is where we've seen a ton of election laws get interfered with, undone, changed.

00:38:37.000 We know here in Wisconsin, we've been saying this over and over, they've made a promise to remap The entire state of Wisconsin, specifically for the members of Congress.

00:38:49.000 So you're looking at potentially losing at least two seats and just out of Wisconsin straight up because the left is wanting just to manipulate and gerrymander to help try to make Hakeem Jeffries The speaker of the house.

00:39:05.000 And we know we can't have that.

00:39:07.000 So right now we've got, like I said, hundreds of people right here in the office working until literally the time runs out on the clock today, 8 p.m. Central.

00:39:18.000 And Brett and his entire team have hosted literally over a hundred events here.

00:39:24.000 We have every field staffer that we possibly can, like Noah, who's one of the greats that we have that's joining Brett right now.

00:39:31.000 And so many others, and then thousands and thousands of people who have logged into the Turning Point Action application to help make those last-minute phone calls and remind everyone to vote.

00:39:42.000 So, Brett, you are Mr. Wisconsin.

00:39:46.000 Walk us through what you are hearing and contrast that with a couple years ago.

00:39:51.000 Yeah, I echo what Tyler said.

00:39:53.000 The environment here is much different on the ground than it was in 2023.

00:39:57.000 What we have this time is long-term infrastructure that we've built at TPA.

00:40:01.000 We've kept the momentum rolling from November on to now.

00:40:05.000 It's not this two-month, every two-year cycle that the Republican apparatus has gotten used to, where we tear it all down just to build it back up again in a one-month sprint.

00:40:14.000 We've been working at this since November 6th.

00:40:17.000 We've been reopening those relationships with those low-propensity voters And talking to those people who realistically had Trump signs in their front yard in November, but had no idea up until a TPA ballot chaser talked with them that there was an election tomorrow.

00:40:32.000 So you're seeing that shift in the low propensity voter habits here in Wisconsin.

00:40:37.000 We've had 70 plus super chase events, including a super successful one yesterday right here where Noah and I are at the Republican Party of Milwaukee office, where we mobilized ballot chasers to hit some of those really key So, that they are aware who Brad Schimel is.

00:41:01.000 They are aware of the national implications and they are aware that if we don't elect a conservative today here in Wisconsin, we will not elect a conservative US president on November 7th, 2028.

00:41:12.000 So, no.

00:41:13.000 Noah, you know grassroots activism better than almost anybody.

00:41:17.000 The great Noah Formica, who's just a legend.

00:41:20.000 What are you seeing and hearing on the ground in the great state of Wisconsin?

00:41:24.000 Well, I will tell you, to start off, I am completely honored to be down here in Wisconsin.

00:41:30.000 So, you know, a couple, just a week ago, we actually lost in Lancaster, a special election, which, unfortunate, we saw Low down in Ruby Red, Lancaster County, there's barely any Republican turnout.

00:41:42.000 But what I'm seeing here in Wisconsin is the complete opposite.

00:41:45.000 There are so many Republicans that are like, oh, I'm so absolutely ready to vote.

00:41:51.000 But we're also finding, you know, as Brett said, so many people that are like, oh my gosh, I didn't even know there was an election going on.

00:41:57.000 So we're constantly beating that drum every single day.

00:42:00.000 Even rain or shine, when it snows, when it thunderstorms, we're talking to these people at their doors, making those phone calls.

00:42:09.000 Any kind of voter contact we can make with these people.

00:42:11.000 We're absolutely doing it.

00:42:13.000 And, you know, I love investing my time down here in Wisconsin, especially because, you know, Pennsylvania, as you know, our Supreme Court is completely awful.

00:42:22.000 And I want to see Wisconsin get a little better.

00:42:24.000 And I think we need to save this state in order to protect Trump's mandate.

00:42:29.000 What has the reaction been on the ground from voters?

00:42:32.000 Is it a persuasion election or a turnout election, Noah?

00:42:36.000 Um, I think it is a little bit of both.

00:42:39.000 I think we need to definitely persuade some people, but what we need to also focus on a lot is we need to find our voters who necessarily, you know, think we won last cycle, so why do we need to get back out there and vote?

00:42:52.000 And there's a lot of those people.

00:42:54.000 We need to just remind them, hey, in order to protect Trump's mandate, in order to continue the great election victory we had, we need to vote every single cycle up and down that darn ballot.

00:43:05.000 And we need to keep on doing it because it all starts local.

00:43:09.000 It is all local.

00:43:10.000 That is right.

00:43:11.000 Tyler, do you have something you want to piggyback on that?

00:43:13.000 I just want to say this.

00:43:15.000 It's tough in a Supreme Court race and smaller elections like this that people don't typically follow.

00:43:21.000 So what was really nice in the 2024 campaign here in Wisconsin was everybody already knew President Trump and they could have a conversation about it.

00:43:30.000 Part of this is very rapidly, you have to be able to describe to people, what are the issues at hand?

00:43:37.000 What's going to change if they don't show up?

00:43:40.000 And they need to get to know the candidate real quick.

00:43:42.000 But I mean, Charlie, if we got even a portion of everyone that showed up for the 2024 election, we win this thing.

00:43:49.000 So it's just a matter of getting out the vote, talking to as many people as you possibly can.

00:43:54.000 And that's why I'm so proud of our team.

00:43:56.000 I mean, we've literally brought in every single human body we possibly can in the state.

00:44:01.000 Here in Wisconsin, we've had the largest ground force of any organization.

00:44:04.000 We have really one of the only activist-oriented office buildings in the entire state that's right here in Waukesha.

00:44:12.000 And when you look at the map, you get into the data, you start to see real quickly what Brett And everybody else that I've seen here, as we spend our time, Waukesha is the most highly critical place that you have to turn out votes because that is where we have the fewest people that remember to turn out for these types of elections.

00:44:32.000 And when we say our fewest people, we mean our people, you know, Republicans.

00:44:37.000 Could you imagine, Tyler, if we lose by 400 votes or 500 votes?

00:44:42.000 It'd be catastrophic.

00:44:43.000 And it could happen, Charlie.

00:44:45.000 And that's why we're here in Waukesha.

00:44:47.000 I mean, I'll tell you, we've hit every voter that we possibly can in Waukesha County, where it's the epicenter, it's the vote epicenter.

00:44:54.000 So Democrats have vote centers. 0.93

00:44:56.000 Theirs are typically inner cities.

00:44:59.000 You know, we know this college, we know this really well.

00:45:01.000 Charlie is college campuses.

00:45:03.000 They spend all their time because those are the easiest places where they can aggregate votes quickly.

00:45:08.000 Ours are in these high density suburbs.

00:45:11.000 Like, again, like Waukesha County, like West Allis, like Wauwatosa, which is all right in this space.

00:45:17.000 And there's other places across the state, including Brown County and right outside Green Bay and other places.

00:45:22.000 But that's where the most collection of those votes are.

00:45:25.000 And Charlie, this thing is coming down in the polling and what we're seeing.

00:45:30.000 According to Trafalgar, this is a tied race.

00:45:33.000 It is pure turnout, everybody.

00:45:34.000 If you live in Wisconsin, If you vacation in Wisconsin, if you know somebody in Wisconsin, if you've heard of somebody from Wisconsin, if you think, just start calling people in Wisconsin.

00:45:45.000 Download the Turning Point Action app and start doing that right now.

00:45:49.000 That is the Turning Point Action app.

00:45:51.000 If you live in Chicago, I know people in Wisconsin just because I grew up in Northern Illinois.

00:45:55.000 tpaction.com slash app.

00:45:59.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

00:46:01.000 Brand new year, brand new opportunities to change the world for the better.

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00:46:52.000 That is charliekirk.com and click on the pre-born banner.

00:46:56.000 I'm a donor.

00:46:57.000 You should be too.

00:46:57.000 charliekirk.com pre-born banner.

00:47:02.000 Okay, we are an action, action, action show as Steve Bannon would always say.

00:47:06.000 Tyler and Brett are ready to walk you through the steps to be able to use the Turning Point Action app.

00:47:11.000 Our show is different.

00:47:12.000 We want to empower you, the audience, to be able to make the steps necessary.

00:47:17.000 So Tyler and Brett, whoever wants to go first, take a couple minutes here and thoroughly please empower the audience of how they could impact the Wisconsin race today.

00:47:28.000 Please. Yeah, and Charlie, we're so grateful for so many people that have downloaded the Turning Point Action application.

00:47:34.000 Anyone can do it anywhere on the Google Android Store, Google Play Store, or the Apple App Store.

00:47:43.000 You go on, search for Turning Point Action.

00:47:46.000 Not Turning Point USA, Turning Point Action.

00:47:48.000 It's one of the top downloaded apps.

00:47:51.000 You can go in, and once you get in there, you download it right to your phone, tap the arrow in the top left-hand corner, input your phone number, and you're off to the races.

00:48:01.000 We need people to just tap Make Calls or Send Text Messages.

00:48:06.000 And when you go in there, you're going to see a button.

00:48:08.000 Real easy.

00:48:09.000 It's real simple.

00:48:10.000 You spend just a couple minutes on this.

00:48:12.000 It'll say Wisconsin Supreme Court Race.

00:48:14.000 You tap that button and you're in.

00:48:17.000 It'll give you the list of people to call.

00:48:20.000 It's real easy.

00:48:20.000 You just tap their name and it takes you over to the phone number.

00:48:23.000 It starts dialing them right away, right in your cell phone.

00:48:27.000 And you can get through 10, 20, 30 phone calls really quickly.

00:48:32.000 If every single person within the sound of your voice, Charlie, just did 10 phone calls today, 10 phone calls right now.

00:48:40.000 Don't wait an hour from now, and maybe you're going to miss people that are going to not go to the polls.

00:48:44.000 They're going to turn off their phone, go to sleep, put their head down.

00:48:48.000 We need people to do that now.

00:48:51.000 10 calls each, and we can get out hundreds of thousands of calls, which we've been doing over the last few days.

00:48:58.000 And I'll kick this over to Brett, but We have our entire team right now across the state of Wisconsin.

00:49:04.000 We have every team member that we possibly could flux into Wisconsin.

00:49:08.000 We've brought in hundreds and hundreds of volunteers who are out knocking doors, making calls.

00:49:13.000 We have hundreds of people right here in the office who are making calls just this way.

00:49:19.000 Yeah, I mean, Noah here next to me is one of hundreds of people that are here on the ground from out of state that are physically here in Wisconsin chasing ballots.

00:49:27.000 There may be people listening to the show right now, Charlie, that are in Wisconsin that have been hesitant about coming out to a super chase event or hesitant about connecting with one of our TPA staffers.

00:49:37.000 It's out of their comfort zone.

00:49:38.000 They've never participated in conservative activism.

00:49:41.000 Now is not the time.

00:49:42.000 Now is the time to leave it all out on the field.

00:49:45.000 So one of my calls to action is to anyone listening to the show, You have an ability right now to go on the TP Action app, hit Help Knock Doors, Voters Near Me, and you'll be loaded a list of the 15 closest Republican households to where you're standing.

00:50:03.000 Why is this important?

00:50:05.000 Because there's more value in saying, hey, I'm your neighbor.

00:50:08.000 Have you voted yet today for Brad Schimel versus, hey, I'm a random stranger.

00:50:13.000 I'm Noah Formica from Pennsylvania.

00:50:15.000 Have you voted for Brad Schimel?

00:50:17.000 There's much more genuinity that exists there.

00:50:20.000 If you own your neighborhood and if we're able to get everyone in Wisconsin to squeeze out an extra 10 votes out of their voting wards, their voting neighborhoods, that could be what we point to tonight after 8 p.m. as the definitive It is not a war of persuasion.

00:50:38.000 It is a war of getting every single conservative in your neighborhood out to vote.

00:50:43.000 And the TP Action app is the one-stop shop for that.

00:50:46.000 So again, Wisconsinites and even people in northern Illinois that are just a short drive away from the Wisconsin border that can drive up to Kenosha, Pleasant Prairie, Bristol, Lake Geneva, Please help us.

00:50:57.000 This is a 10-year term on the line.

00:51:00.000 I do not want to see my home state get thrown back to the radical left.

00:51:04.000 And Charlie, this is what's so cool about what's going on right now.

00:51:08.000 The individuals who have made the calls over the course of the last two weeks, we've seen massive changes.

00:51:16.000 I mean, we're talking about hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people who have made serious contact with people.

00:51:23.000 This just didn't happen.

00:51:26.000 And to put this into context, two years ago, we believed that there was about 5% of the amount of voter contact than what's been made now.

00:51:38.000 Worst case scenario where we're at with this is that we're probably, and Elon said this yesterday when he was on stage, he believes that his team believes that we're about 100,000 votes down.

00:51:49.000 You know, our number is right in the ballpark of, worst case scenario, about 73,000 votes down.

00:51:55.000 But that's about three times better than where they were at two years ago.

00:51:59.000 And so that's a great starting point.

00:52:01.000 We're in a position to win, but turnout has to be huge today.

00:52:05.000 It has to be monumental.

00:52:06.000 Download the Turning Point Action app.

00:52:08.000 It is Election Day.

00:52:10.000 If you live in Florida, vote.

00:52:11.000 Wisconsin, vote.

00:52:12.000 Okay, we continue with our all-star group here, including Terry Dietrich, chair of the Waukesha County GOP, an RNC committeeman for Wisconsin.

00:52:21.000 Terry, how are things on the ground in Wisconsin right now?

00:52:24.000 Charlie, as usual, it's a downy brook right to the end here.

00:52:28.000 A tough fight all over the state, but I think we're, I think we got the edge on it.

00:52:33.000 We're doing really well.

00:52:34.000 We had Elon in here last night.

00:52:36.000 We had Chairman Watley from the RNC.

00:52:38.000 A lot of excitement up in the northeast corner.

00:52:40.000 Fox Valley, as we call it, and Green Bay Area.

00:52:43.000 So, look, we're running on all cylinders as usual.

00:52:45.000 It feels like last October again.

00:52:48.000 We never quit.

00:52:50.000 So I think we've got the edge.

00:52:51.000 Brad's working hard, so I think we're in good shape.

00:52:54.000 I want to play a piece of tape here that alluded to something that Tyler said and then have anyone comment on this, which is the balance of the House, that if we are not successful in Wisconsin, that this very well might result in a Democrat House, which means more impeachment to Donald Trump, more subpoenas, more hearings.

00:53:14.000 This is Hakeem Jeffries, who's telling you how important it is.

00:53:20.000 A 50-50 race.

00:53:23.000 Whoever wins is going to determine who has the majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

00:53:30.000 Why is that important?

00:53:31.000 Because the lines are broken.

00:53:35.000 Right. And as soon as possible, we need to be able to revisit that and have fair lines.

00:53:42.000 The only way for that to be even a significant possibility is if you have an enlightened Supreme Court.

00:53:51.000 And so, you know, I think that's an incredibly important race.

00:53:56.000 I could throw this to Terry first.

00:53:58.000 Terry, that is the wannabe Speaker of the House.

00:54:01.000 Who might become Speaker of the House because of what happens in Wisconsin.

00:54:06.000 Terry. Right.

00:54:07.000 This is incredibly important in so many ways, Charlie.

00:54:11.000 You know this very well.

00:54:12.000 I mean, nationally, both here in Wisconsin, I mean, they're going to redistrict if they win.

00:54:18.000 If they redistrict, we lose Congressman Van Orden and we lose Congressman Stiles.

00:54:23.000 They're both great congressmen.

00:54:25.000 We lose those.

00:54:26.000 You know, the Democrats are set up not only in Wisconsin, but down in D.C. to take over and stop President Trump's agenda.

00:54:34.000 There's so many things.

00:54:35.000 Act 10, the right to work that saved Wisconsinites $36 billion over the last nine years, will be gone.

00:54:44.000 Voter ID will be gone.

00:54:47.000 You know, just a whole host of things.

00:54:49.000 But the Please.

00:55:06.000 here as usual.

00:55:07.000 We're fighting and fighting because we know this is for the generational future of our state.

00:55:12.000 And Charlie, the left has...

00:55:15.000 Super clear here in Wisconsin.

00:55:17.000 So Hakeem Jeffries talking about that last week.

00:55:19.000 This isn't the first time that we've heard that in Wisconsin.

00:55:22.000 I remember when Brad Schimmel was on your show a couple weeks ago, he was talking about this.

00:55:25.000 About a month ago, Susan Crawford appeared on a donor Zoom call with Reid Hoffman and some other hard lefty donors, and the theme of the Zoom call was how to win back the U.S. House of Representatives in 26 and Wisconsin's path to doing so.

00:55:41.000 They're openly bragging about this.

00:55:43.000 This is a talking point of That is well said.

00:55:58.000 Let's play another piece of tape here just to show the stakes.

00:56:02.000 This is Sean Duffy.

00:56:04.000 The country is watching what's happening in Wisconsin.

00:56:07.000 Play Cut 145.

00:56:08.000 This election couldn't be more important.

00:56:11.000 The country is watching what's going to happen in Wisconsin.

00:56:15.000 Because you have a radical leftist judge who wants to get rid of school choice.

00:56:20.000 She wants to get rid of voter ID. 1.00

00:56:23.000 She wants to redraw congressional lines. 1.00

00:56:26.000 She doesn't like parental rights.

00:56:27.000 She wants to obstruct Donald Trump's agenda. 1.00

00:56:30.000 She believes that criminals are more important than victims.

00:56:34.000 That is a good Wisconsin's own who's running the Department of Transportation. 0.99

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00:57:45.000 So, Brett, I want to go, I want to kind of throw it back to you here.

00:57:49.000 What parts of the state Are going to be most consequential for us to drive turnout today?

00:57:55.000 Well, so today where we are right now in western Milwaukee County and then where our TP Action office is in eastern Waukesha County is ground zero for today's election.

00:58:06.000 It is low propensity voter central.

00:58:08.000 It is a war of racking the score up in Waukesha County.

00:58:12.000 Statewide candidates appear to be playing jump rope with that 60 percent line where you have to get 60 percent.

00:58:19.000 58 seems to be the floor, but 60 percent really is what's going to allow you to compete statewide.

00:58:24.000 And then here in Milwaukee County, if we can go from 29 percent turnout to say 31 percent turnout and lose by less, we will play that role.

00:58:32.000 But right now I want to make a call to action.

00:58:35.000 Anyone that's listening, that's in southwestern Wisconsin, that's congressional district.

00:58:41.000 You are going to lose your congressman if you do not turn out and vote today.

00:58:45.000 We have to turn out every single rural conservative and their mother.

00:58:49.000 We're doing our part here in the Wow counties.

00:58:51.000 This ground zero part where we have so many low propensity conservatives, so many Trump voters that didn't even realize up until a couple weeks ago that there was an election.

00:59:00.000 We cannot take our foot off the gas in those counties that are Yeah, I was going to say, kind of how we're looking at this as a team is, you know, the WoW counties, so you have, we say WoW counties, I'll reiterate this for the audience.

00:59:18.000 When they say WoW counties, that's three counties that are outside of Milwaukee.

00:59:21.000 So you have Milwaukee County, you have Waukesha County, you have Ozaukee County, you have Washington County.

00:59:27.000 And the three WoW counties around Milwaukee, if they offset Milwaukee, Blue-ness, then you're in good shape. 1.00

00:59:35.000 The second part is statewide offsetting Dane County.

00:59:38.000 Dane County is where University of Wisconsin-Madison is.

00:59:41.000 Charlie knows this well.

00:59:43.000 You know this well because we spent so much time there this last election cycle.

00:59:46.000 We saw a double-digit shift to the right, which we've covered on your show many times now.

00:59:53.000 But that's the big question mark.

00:59:54.000 Right now Brett is exactly right.

00:59:56.000 We're feeling really good because of the leadership of guys like Terry, And the work that's been done in Waukesha and other places around Milwaukee, the question is, is are we going to make sure that we have enough turnout, deep red turnout in deep red rural counties that are going to offset Dane County and UW-Madison?

01:00:14.000 And that's the work that's being done right now by not just our team, but we've got to dive in and keep reiterating, turnout must be big in western Wisconsin.

01:00:25.000 It must be big.

01:00:27.000 Right. You know, just putting on my National Committeeman hat, I just raised funds in two hours ago to put Congressman Van Orden on a robocall going throughout the entire western Wisconsin area.

01:00:42.000 So he's going to be on at nine o'clock tomorrow morning pleading with every single person from Hudson to La Crosse to Eau Claire down to Crawford County, the entire area west of Madison, which is subject to Madison Liberal Radio.

01:00:57.000 He's going to be on robocalling and hitting those folks to drive that vote up.

01:01:03.000 So proud of Waukesha County and the fact that we raised the funds to send out there.

01:01:07.000 We've got it all set up ready to go.

01:01:09.000 And last night we were up in the Fox Valley where Sean Duffy was, etc.

01:01:13.000 Chairman Watley from the RNC was there, et cetera.

01:01:15.000 You know, that has to perform extremely well.

01:01:19.000 It's kind of the last place we always hit in the state.

01:01:22.000 I think they're juiced up there.

01:01:24.000 Obviously, the Northwoods has been the one in last November that got that little extra that pushed us over the top.

01:01:33.000 So we're all working statewide.

01:01:36.000 Turning Point's done a fantastic job as usual.

01:01:40.000 You know, Elon Musk had a fabulous, amazing, I do think a couple of things are true.

01:01:54.000 Number one, the Republican Party is grappling with a new reality.

01:01:58.000 We have a lot of voters in the party that do not vote regularly.

01:02:01.000 They're low-propensity voters.

01:02:03.000 They turned out for Donald Trump.

01:02:04.000 They like to vote when he's on the ballot.

01:02:06.000 But even in the November election, you saw people show up, vote Trump, and then leave the rest of it blank.

01:02:10.000 I think the Elon Musk point that you played earlier about the future of Western civilization, I actually think this is a key issue the Republicans ought to lean in on.

01:02:18.000 Not just a one-off election when you're voting in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race or some congressional special election in Florida.

01:02:25.000 These things matter.

01:02:26.000 There are ripple effects.

01:02:27.000 A vote here causes major implications on policy Down the line.

01:02:31.000 So I think Elon is actually on to something with that messaging.

01:02:34.000 And I hope Republicans, especially the new ones who aren't regular voters, take it to heart.

01:02:39.000 So Brett, you would know this answer best.

01:02:42.000 On average, how many people who voted for President Trump will not vote in this election?

01:02:48.000 It's crazy.

01:02:49.000 So when we did the data dive, it's projected that a little over 300,000 conservatives will not turn out in this election.

01:02:56.000 Trump won Wisconsin by about 29,000 votes.

01:02:59.000 We've identified three times as many conservatives in Waukesha County alone that are projected not to turn out.

01:03:06.000 Now that was obviously before we unleashed the largest ground game in conservative movement history here in Wisconsin.

01:03:13.000 And then we're going to partner that with, and we have been partnering that with the largest ballot curing operation that Wisconsin has ever seen these last 24 hours.

01:03:23.000 Getting those final votes, couple thousand votes here, a couple thousand votes there could mean the difference.

01:03:28.000 I can tell you with a hundred Politics means more to a leftist that doesn't have friends, community, or church life.

01:03:44.000 And so this is how they are able to have meaning.

01:03:47.000 Fill out your ballot.

01:03:48.000 Get involved with your Supreme Court race.

01:03:50.000 So it's very hard for people that have a vibrant connection to their local land, To their local community, to their church life, to convince them they're tired of hearing about politics all the time.

01:04:02.000 They said, I just got Trump elected.

01:04:04.000 That's the challenge.

01:04:06.000 Tyler, is it correct to say that if we lose, we will not lose to Crawford.

01:04:11.000 We will lose to the couch.

01:04:13.000 We will lose to not voting at all.

01:04:17.000 That's right.

01:04:17.000 That's right, Charlie.

01:04:18.000 I mean, the biggest enemy that we have in these in these mid, mid, Off election cycle elections is that people just don't show up.

01:04:28.000 If everybody showed up, we win.

01:04:31.000 And in fact, the Democrats know this.

01:04:32.000 So the Democrats are out saying, and we're getting these messages coming through, and they're trying to actually quiet down the election.

01:04:40.000 And part of the reason for that is because they know when turnout's high, the more information that gets out there, the less likely they are to win.

01:04:46.000 And we're seeing that in the polling.

01:04:47.000 So as people have become more aware of this election here, the polling has tightened said dramatically.

01:04:54.000 In fact, there was polling that was about a month ago that had Brad Schimel, who's running for Supreme Court here, down about eight points.

01:05:01.000 The most recent polls in the last two days, there was one that had him up, there's another that had him down two points, and another that had him within about a point.

01:05:08.000 And so this thing is, what that tells you is when it's within even five points in this type of election, you can have massive five, even close to 10 point swings based off of turnout.

01:05:21.000 Right now, we are projecting that there's going to be higher turnout than 2023.

01:05:26.000 That's a good thing for us because that means that We're going to have more people show up on our set.

01:05:32.000 The left is, right now we're looking at this data, the left is cannibalized, much like Arizona for our listeners that have listened to your show all throughout this last election.

01:05:41.000 We were saying this all throughout the election, the left was cannibalizing their high propensity voters with early ballots, while we were chasing lower propensity voters with early ballots.

01:05:51.000 And we've done the same thing here in Wisconsin.

01:05:54.000 The good news is that the number has been dramatically cut down from 2023.

01:06:00.000 But The question will be, will it be enough?

01:06:03.000 Because will turnout be good enough to deliver the victory today?

01:06:08.000 Brett, final thoughts?

01:06:09.000 Yeah, I mean, this is an extremely low turnout election.

01:06:11.000 I'd say if we're somewhere on the other side of 40% statewide turnout, that's going to be a net positive for us. 1.00

01:06:17.000 So let's hope and pray for that.

01:06:19.000 That means that we will have done our jobs in Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties, those historically red counties that we absolutely needed to rack the score up in.

01:06:28.000 If you have friends and family in Wisconsin today, Please, please, please get on the phone with them and remind them that they have until 8 p.m. Central to vote for Brad Schimmel for the Supreme Court race.

01:06:39.000 Help me save our great state of Wisconsin.

01:06:43.000 So I think, honestly, we're going to pull off a surprise victory.

01:06:47.000 However, we all need to stay on our A-game.

01:06:50.000 I know us at Turning Point Action, we're constantly doing the hard work, the hard labor to get the job done, constantly doing super chase events, constantly ballot curing and texting, calling, all those different forms of voter connection.

01:07:04.000 But, you know, to kind of reiterate what Tyler said, I mean, the couch effect.

01:07:09.000 We need to get those people off the couch and voting. 1.00

01:07:12.000 I talked to a voter a couple days ago, a Trump voter.

01:07:15.000 He had a Trump flag waving in his yard.

01:07:17.000 I asked, do you have a plan to vote?

01:07:18.000 He said, no.

01:07:19.000 And I told him, well, we need you to vote in order to protect Trump's mandate.

01:07:24.000 And he's now voting, thankfully, but we need to continue to find these people, get them mobilized and do everything we can until the polls close.

01:07:32.000 And, you know, we don't have that much time left.

01:07:35.000 But my call to action for anybody in Pennsylvania right now, get on your cell phone, start making calls in our app.

01:07:41.000 We need you.

01:07:42.000 We need to continue to save this beautiful state.

01:07:45.000 Thank you, guys.

01:07:47.000 Noah, Brett and Tyler, thanks so much.

01:07:48.000 Really appreciate it.

01:07:50.000 Thank you, Charlie.

01:07:50.000 We appreciate you.

01:07:52.000 Vote, vote, vote in the great state of Wisconsin.

01:07:55.000 This is, this is critical, everybody.

01:07:58.000 And I, you go to tpaction.com slash app, and I just want to brag on the Turning Point Action team.

01:08:03.000 They've been working their tail off.

01:08:05.000 And a lot of groups sat this one out.

01:08:07.000 It's a lot of money that could have been spent that was not spent here.

01:08:11.000 It's a lot of, we, we probably, we do have the biggest presence in Wisconsin.

01:08:16.000 So, win or lose, we can say we did our part.

01:08:20.000 Also, how many podcasts and shows have not even talked about this?

01:08:24.000 Well, we've done our part.

01:08:25.000 Now go do yours.

01:08:26.000 Make some calls, knock on some doors.

01:08:27.000 Go vote tpaction.com app.

01:08:29.000 Thanks so much for listening.

01:08:30.000 Everybody email us as always freedom at charliekirk.com.

01:08:33.000 Thanks so much for listening and God bless.

The Charlie Kirk Show - April 01, 2025

WHY WISCONSIN MATTERS — Election Day 2025

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