The Charlie Kirk Show - Will We Know the Results on Election Night?

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00:00:13.000 Charlie, what you've done is incredible here.

00:00:15.000 Maybe Charlie Kirk is on the college campus.

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00:01:12.000 Men are free to claim to be women and swim in swimming pools. 0.75

00:01:15.000 You're not free to claim trophies in a women's sports competition. 1.00

00:01:19.000 Right, but see, that distinction is elementary in terms of a logical dichotomy.

00:01:23.000 To her, it's advanced calculus.

00:01:25.000 But this level of dialogue that we've reached, guys, is not the priority of the left.

00:01:28.000 They're not practiced in being here because they never prioritize it.

00:01:32.000 What they prioritize instead is the demonization of any person that is not a part of their group so that they can say, this is a bad person, therefore I don't have to listen or contend with anything they have to say.

00:01:41.000 This is how you see low IQ degenerate women who can't articulate a single argument thinking narcissistically, and frankly psychopathically, that they're somehow better than others, such that they can smile and smirk while being surrounded by a bunch of people who are scorning her for being low IQ. 1.00

00:01:57.000 And not being able to articulate an argument.

00:01:59.000 Because she's been indoctrinated in college to only see the world in terms of power disparities, not decipher it in terms of logic, reason, rationality, to understand the objective nature of any system or reality.

00:02:10.000 Instead, she's been fed a one-dimensional analysis of oppressor-oppressee.

00:02:15.000 Where ideas have so little weight in comparison to adherence to the cult, that they're essentially meaningless.

00:02:20.000 And being asked to articulate them is the same as being asked to engage in theater, almost perversely enough, in an act of bad faith.

00:02:27.000 Because in the left, who asks you to engage in ideas?

00:02:30.000 You're a good person just as a result of saying the right lines, identifying with the correct identity, and acknowledging other people's identity, and attributing to them the correct amount of counterfeit virtue as a result of their hypothetical victimhood.

00:02:42.000 That impressive video is a young man by the name of Abraham Eyer, and he joins us right now.

00:02:47.000 Abraham, I hope I got your last name correct.

00:02:50.000 Abraham joins us.

00:02:51.000 Abraham, thank you for joining us.

00:02:52.000 Our team sent that video to me over the weekend.

00:02:55.000 I said, get on the show.

00:02:55.000 I was very impressed.

00:02:57.000 I'll be very honest, Abraham, I don't know very much about you, and we're meeting for the first time.

00:03:01.000 Why don't you introduce yourself to the audience and the work that you do?

00:03:04.000 Thank you, Charlie.

00:03:05.000 Thank you for having me on.

00:03:06.000 I'm glad you got to see that video.

00:03:07.000 I was actually hoping that one day you would get to see my analysis because, you know, that video that I saw of you talking with that girl just completely surprised me.

00:03:15.000 But anyway, my name is Abraham Iyer.

00:03:16.000 I'm 23 years old.

00:03:18.000 Since the age of 17, I've been obsessed with understanding the architecture of the left-wing ideology.

00:03:23.000 In particular, Marxism, because I view it as the greatest existential threat to civilization and humanity.

00:03:28.000 I could talk for two hours about the nature of Marxism, but one of the most fundamental aspects, I think, is its feminine denial of objective reality and any type of objective system or framework that makes sense of the world, like reason, rationality, logic. 0.75

00:03:43.000 You definitely got to see that represented in that video, almost to such an extent that I thought, you know, is this a script?

00:03:49.000 Because this girl, you know, started off with emotional attacks and then ended up like sexually exposing herself to you, which was just so bizarre to see.

00:03:56.000 You know, Freud would have a field day, that's for sure.

00:04:00.000 But, um, Yeah, I'm 23 years old.

00:04:03.000 You can find my YouTube channel.

00:04:05.000 I upload daily, so that's kind of what I've been doing for the last year and a half.

00:04:08.000 After COVID, I decided I had to speak out because things were getting insane.

00:04:12.000 The left was going off the rails.

00:04:14.000 Well, you have a great talent, and you're welcome here.

00:04:16.000 So, let's dive into it.

00:04:17.000 Thank you.

00:04:18.000 I could play more of this video, but let me just summarize this for the audience and the sake of time.

00:04:23.000 So it was not staged.

00:04:25.000 Forgive me for my voice.

00:04:25.000 I'm doing my best to try to fight through this.

00:04:28.000 I lost my voice.

00:04:29.000 It's totally fine.

00:04:30.000 I completely understand.

00:04:31.000 On campus.

00:04:33.000 Screaming at all these people.

00:04:35.000 Outdoor talking, Blake, is the easiest way to lose your voice, by the way.

00:04:38.000 Yeah, and to be clear, not really screaming at people.

00:04:41.000 Not screaming, just having amplifying.

00:04:42.000 Yeah, exactly.

00:04:43.000 So Abraham, this was not staged.

00:04:45.000 I was there next to Vivek Ramaswamy.

00:04:47.000 This young lady comes up, and she is guns-a-blazing. 1.00

00:04:50.000 And she is very aggressive. 0.88

00:04:52.000 She's also pathological, I don't say that lightly, because she said, I don't know who you are.

00:04:57.000 And then 20 seconds later, she recites all this information about me.

00:04:59.000 She knows my age.

00:05:01.000 She knows my YouTube information.

00:05:02.000 So it's like, I didn't even know who you were.

00:05:04.000 Okay, whatever.

00:05:05.000 But what about this video—and we'll play the clips throughout our conversation, Abraham—was demonstrative about a more macro problem we're seeing in the country?

00:05:13.000 Because I don't want to pick on this young lady. 0.91

00:05:16.000 I'm sure she has her own struggles, and I'll pray for her.

00:05:18.000 But it is important on the macro.

00:05:20.000 What did this demonstrate in the macro, Abraham, in your analysis?

00:05:24.000 I think that the left doesn't believe in truth as a concept.

00:05:27.000 So when you saw her not caring about reason, logic, or ideas on any level, that wasn't an accident.

00:05:36.000 And I don't say that lightly.

00:05:37.000 I think it is actually a technically true statement that the left doesn't care about the concept of truth.

00:05:42.000 Because when you look at postmodern neo-Marxism, What's clear is that they demonize any system of making sense of the world as inherently oppressive, toxic, patriarchal, corrupt, predatory, and as a result of this there is no way to

00:06:01.000 make true statements that are allowed.

00:06:04.000 And so only adherence to the political identity, which is one of identitarianism, is acceptable to these people.

00:06:11.000 And so as soon as it became clear to her that you violated that stipulation to her ideology, ideas were a secondary order of priority.

00:06:20.000 There was no attention to detail because attention to detail is making a statement in and of itself, which is that We could make progress by paying attention to detail.

00:06:30.000 They don't actually believe that there is something at the end of that process.

00:06:34.000 This is also the reason they don't believe in free speech, by the way, because to believe in free speech means you have to accept that two people can collaborate to create a better outcome.

00:06:42.000 I don't actually believe they Believe in the concept of a better outcome because there's nothing greater than their ideology and their ideology doesn't again it rejects any objective system like logic as inherently oppressive and so you were as far as she was concerned a

00:06:59.000 Corrupt predator embodying the patriarchy, possibly white supremacy, any slander where you can think of to discredit you so that she doesn't have to contend with what you have to say. 0.71

00:07:10.000 And this is, of course, the nature of the leftwing ideology and why, frankly, the left seems so disconnected from reality. 0.96

00:07:17.000 I mean, You're on X. You see it every day.

00:07:19.000 I'm on X. I see this constantly.

00:07:21.000 It's gotten to the point where Elon Musk is tweeting about this because there is no end to the insanity.

00:07:27.000 And people ask, why is that the case?

00:07:29.000 Why are they so self-evidently insane and disconnected from reality?

00:07:32.000 And I liken it often to zombies because I live in California.

00:07:36.000 I know a lot of liberals.

00:07:37.000 I know a lot of rich liberals.

00:07:38.000 And there's sort of two groups of people.

00:07:40.000 One group of people is separated from reality fundamentally because of their allegiance to this ideology and the other Is able to think rationally and accept the individuality of a person, you know, doesn't disparage meritocracy or logic, you know, the list goes on.

00:07:55.000 Yes, this is definite.

00:07:57.000 Her behavior was endemic to the leftist ideology most technically.

00:08:00.000 Let's play cut 28 here, just so our audience can get a little bit more of a flavor.

00:08:06.000 Just so everyone understands, this video has been seen, based on Elon Musk sharing and others, this video has been seen on the low end 140 million times.

00:08:16.000 Congratulations for Elon Musk spending that, by the way, I want to say.

00:08:18.000 Thank you.

00:08:19.000 That's very sweet.

00:08:20.000 Elon's great.

00:08:21.000 Let's play cut 28.

00:08:22.000 Do you feel proud of yourself for debating college kids who are unprepared to speak in front of an audience like yourself?

00:08:32.000 Hold on, hold on, hold on.

00:08:34.000 You're 30 years old.

00:08:35.000 We can agree you're 30 years old.

00:08:38.000 Right? 0.97

00:08:39.000 Do you think that's a little bit silly? 0.93

00:08:41.000 Are you a voter? 0.89

00:08:42.000 I am a voter.

00:08:43.000 Oh, so I vote and you vote.

00:08:44.000 So I'm talking to voters of this country that will determine the future of Western civilization.

00:08:48.000 That's what I'm doing here today.

00:08:51.000 Yeah?

00:08:52.000 Wait, hold on.

00:08:53.000 How is it any different than a professor talking to you?

00:08:55.000 Than a professor talking to you?

00:08:57.000 Who are you?

00:09:00.000 Important enough for you to come up to a microphone.

00:09:03.000 Actually, when I first saw this ad, I thought it was like an improv comedy thing.

00:09:08.000 It looked so ridiculous that I didn't even think it was real. 0.75

00:09:13.000 Well, no. 0.97

00:09:13.000 You can see. 0.97

00:09:13.000 Look how popular Trump is on your campus. 0.97

00:09:15.000 How does that make you feel?

00:09:19.000 That's not comedy.

00:09:21.000 That is a five alarm fire for Kamala Harris, because she's probably going to lose Pennsylvania. 1.00

00:09:25.000 No, I just want to be clear.

00:09:26.000 Is there something wrong with talking to voters?

00:09:29.000 No, there's nothing wrong with talking to voters.

00:09:31.000 Well, that's what we're doing here today.

00:09:32.000 It's an open mic.

00:09:33.000 I think that you push a dangerous agenda.

00:09:35.000 What does that video tell you?

00:09:37.000 Well, it seemed like theater to me, because her, you could think of it as emotional criticism

00:09:43.000 or emotionally lashing out.

00:09:44.000 When she was doing that to you it almost seemed as though she didn't believe her own words and again the reason for that is because there's no truth outside the left-wing ideology as far as they're concerned.

00:09:52.000 They don't have to, they don't have to make sense.

00:09:54.000 They don't have that standard the way you and I care about being logical or representing objective reality.

00:09:59.000 Objective reality is their enemy.

00:10:01.000 They demonize it because it is oppressive and She's, you know, it's disingenuine, but you could tell that she knew as she was saying the words that it was completely disingenuine.

00:10:12.000 You know, it's not authentic.

00:10:13.000 And so I think that this is a almost Freudian level embodiment of the left-wing psychopathology as far as I'm concerned.

00:10:21.000 And that was a perfect clip that you just played to demonstrate that.

00:10:27.000 Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

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00:11:30.000 So Abraham, what is it more broadly about the left-wing ideology that is so compelling that young women seem to receive it openly?

00:11:39.000 And we see this with the gender divide or the sex divide.

00:11:42.000 Young men are very much more to the right, young ladies very far to the left. 0.89

00:11:45.000 What explains that?

00:11:46.000 What I think explains that, you know, I'm reminded of something Jordan Peterson said in 2017 with Kathy Newman where he said, in order to think you have to risk being offensive, you know, in high school, coming out of high school, even in college, You have to be able to go to war, in a sense, to defend ideas that make sense.

00:12:03.000 It's a lot easier to just participate in ideology that, for lack of a better term, just calls you a good person as a result of being a part of that ideology.

00:12:11.000 So, if you were to join, let's say, a group of people that their fundamental landscape of thinking is morally relativistic, but, you know, all you have to do is sacrifice your individual identity, they call you a good person, and once you engage in that type of thinking, You can call yourself a hero, you can pretend as though you're righteous without having any actual merit.

00:12:33.000 This is the reason why I think you saw her act so psychopathically in front of you. 0.73

00:12:38.000 And it functionally is psychopathy, ideologically induced psychopathy, where you see her believing that she is the righteous one, that she is the good one, that she is the one who has merit and is acting out coherence, despite talking to a literal billionaire, Vivek Ramaswamy, and yourself, who are, you know, talking about ideas really on a service level, You're talking with her on a level that is elementary, let's just say, because that's the most she can handle, and yet she still believes she's better than you.

00:13:07.000 This is due to the fact that their ideology says you are above reality, you are above having to make sense, and that's a very compelling young message to feminine personalities.

00:13:19.000 So you see this not only with women, but also with Men as well that have effeminate personalities that they would rather pretend to be heroes than do the work to be actually meritorious or virtuous and this is something that I saw personally even in my high school growing up.

00:13:35.000 So I actually went to the same high school that Elon Musk's son Xavier, the school that turned his son trans, went to and this is something that was rampant and When I first discovered Jordan Peterson, which is really what set me on the path that resulted me in not being a leftist, I was in 11th grade.

00:13:52.000 I remember where I was sitting.

00:13:54.000 But in that same classroom, we had a teacher that told us that paper was racist because it was white.

00:13:59.000 We were deconstructing book analysis, but instead of engaging in ideas, that's the level that we were engaging on.

00:14:05.000 Because again, To engage in logic, reason, rationality is to risk being offensive.

00:14:12.000 And to these people, being offensive means you have to defend ideas.

00:14:15.000 Once you defend ideas, then it's clear that there's a truth.

00:14:18.000 And then once there's an objective truth that is external to the ideology, that's unacceptable.

00:14:23.000 This is a very compelling young message for effeminate personalities, especially low verbal IQ personalities.

00:14:29.000 A bit of research that Peterson referenced in 2021 that really stuck with me was proclivity to abide in left-wing authoritarianism is positively correlated, very strongly positively correlated, in fact, with effeminate personality distribution and low verbal IQ.

00:14:43.000 And so this is the reason why you see I'll just be honest, you know, so many podcasts and characters like, and they're not just characters, I don't mean that in a disparaging way, but people like Andrew Tate, etc, that are speaking out against this effeminate

00:15:01.000 Programming, or you could call it a psyop of civilization, because once you reject the necessity to risk being offensive, then you can basically program people with whatever message you want, and at the same time, of course, destroy the nuclear family and any resistance to this heinous groupthink.

00:15:19.000 So Abraham, this is the difficulty, you're pinpointing it, and the video is very clear.

00:15:25.000 How do you win them over if they don't believe in dialogue?

00:15:28.000 So the answer to that I think is that you have to enforce consequences because since we are essentially looking at Psychopathology.

00:15:35.000 These people are functionally psychopathic since they believe that they are above reality.

00:15:39.000 That is the definition of a psychopath.

00:15:41.000 If you think about it, you know, psychopath says that I don't have to care about other people because I am better than them.

00:15:46.000 These people don't think they have to care about reality because they think their ideology supersedes reality.

00:15:49.000 And so the only way to cure this, the only way to get over it, I think is to enforce consequences.

00:15:55.000 Given that, you know, approximately 2% of a population is psychopathic at any given time, they don't care about hurting other people.

00:16:01.000 They only care about what will happen to them.

00:16:02.000 They only calculate in their head, what can what can I get away with?

00:16:05.000 And this is the reason why we have laws and so that there are consequences.

00:16:08.000 I think that the consequences that we must enforce on these people, first is electing Donald Trump, because this is the only way we can combat these heinous freak shows and lunatics is to get him in office because he will enforce consequences.

00:16:21.000 But beyond that, we just have to Demonstrate to these people we are not afraid and I think that this is why your conversation is so important We are winning back the the expectation that we are not Somehow in the wrong for calling out girls as as broken as the one you spoke to as she's clearly not virtuous and yeah, so Abraham I want to have you back and we can do an entire hour and you kind of dissect all of our campus stuff We'll send you some videos you guys.

00:16:48.000 We'll have you back.

00:16:48.000 Thank you.

00:16:49.000 Thank you.

00:16:50.000 Thank you so much Charlie.

00:16:51.000 Thank you for having me Hey everybody, Charlie Kirk here.

00:16:55.000 What an unbelievable start to 2024.

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00:17:56.000 Joining us now is Tom Bevin from RealClearPolitics.

00:17:59.000 Tom, welcome to the program.

00:18:00.000 Tom, thank you for bearing with me.

00:18:02.000 I'm doing the NPR host thing today because my voice is a little... I noticed that, Charlie.

00:18:07.000 Yeah, it's a little worn down, but here we are.

00:18:10.000 So, Tom, we all remember the early Arizona call back in 2020 when Fox News said, breaking news, Donald Trump has lost Arizona, Joe Biden has.

00:18:21.000 What happened there?

00:18:22.000 People in this audience still have some form of PTSD.

00:18:25.000 Let's go back four years ago.

00:18:26.000 What do we know about that night?

00:18:28.000 Well, I mean, Fox, I think, you know, jumped the gun.

00:18:32.000 They ended up being right in the end, but the call itself seemed sort of premature, right?

00:18:39.000 And the decision desk that was responsible for making that call, I think ended up, as I said, they were defending it, but there was about 74% of the vote in and Biden had, and this was at about 1120 at night and on the East Coast.

00:18:56.000 Um, and there was, um, Biden was leading by I think six, seven points or so, but there's still a decent amount of vote left to be counted.

00:19:05.000 And the, uh, you know, the polls in Arizona, I went back and looked at our Rookland politics average.

00:19:09.000 It was under 1%.

00:19:10.000 So all of the polling suggested that Arizona was going to be a very, very tight race.

00:19:15.000 And so when that call came out, obviously people, it raised a bunch of eyebrows among folks as to, you know, and, and.

00:19:23.000 Fox was the first to call Arizona.

00:19:25.000 That was the other thing.

00:19:26.000 I mean, the AP didn't call it until a few hours later.

00:19:29.000 Some of the other networks didn't call it until the following day.

00:19:32.000 So it was definitely one of those calls that raised a few eyebrows.

00:19:35.000 And look, Bret Baier got hung out to dry here.

00:19:37.000 We know that now because of disclosed text messages.

00:19:40.000 And I want to play the tape here to go back into it.

00:19:42.000 Bret Baier was told by the people, hey, this race is called I would feel great about Ohio.

00:19:47.000 We're not there yet.

00:19:48.000 Guys, this is going to come down to like 10,000 votes.

00:19:50.000 And in fact, it did.

00:19:51.000 It very well could have tilted either way.

00:19:53.000 This was a lucky guess by Fox.

00:19:55.000 And Brett Baer was really kind of put in front of the firing line here.

00:19:59.000 Let's play cut 12.

00:20:00.000 I were the Trump campaign.

00:20:02.000 I would feel great about Ohio.

00:20:03.000 We're not there yet.

00:20:04.000 There's just too much vote out and there's too much potentially heavily

00:20:10.000 Democratic mail vote that may flop in at the end to get too, to get too

00:20:15.000 froggy right now with Ohio.

00:20:17.000 We're going to be careful, cautious and earnest.

00:20:19.000 All right.

00:20:19.000 But you weren't careful, cautious and earnest in Arizona.

00:20:22.000 We were too.

00:20:23.000 Why?

00:20:23.000 Because there's all this day of vote, right?

00:20:26.000 We said that each state.

00:20:28.000 starts off with the early vote, the mail-in vote, the absentee, the early vote, and that's

00:20:33.000 a skew toward the Democrats, almost six out of ten. But then we've seen in state after state

00:20:39.000 that the Trump vote comes in on the day of vote that seems to be populating more and more. So why

00:20:46.000 can you say it definitively in Arizona? Well, we were careful, cautious, and earnest. Yeah, right.

00:20:52.000 Brett's instincts were right.

00:20:53.000 It was a complete guesswork.

00:20:54.000 And remember, he would not call Ohio, which ended up being an 8 to 9 point victory for Donald Trump, but they would call Arizona, which came down to 10,000 votes.

00:21:04.000 And Ohio started counting earlier because, you know...

00:21:07.000 Yeah, East Coast, not out on the West Coast.

00:21:10.000 And yeah, as you said, won it by eight points, by 500,000 votes.

00:21:14.000 Arizona ended up coming down to 10,000.

00:21:17.000 And you're right, it's unfortunate what happened to Brett Baer.

00:21:22.000 I knew him when I was at Fox.

00:21:23.000 I was very close to his office.

00:21:25.000 He's a great man.

00:21:26.000 He's a great guy and very fair.

00:21:29.000 And it really speaks to how the 2020 election was like, it was kind of a, like it was a spiritual experience for a lot of people. It was a very

00:21:39.000 high, very emotional, very, you know, it was a very powerful moment for them. And I

00:21:44.000 think what really hurt people was the early results in 2020 were so good for Trump and so

00:21:49.000 surprising. And so there was this rising, rising hope. And then Fox comes in with

00:21:54.000 this premature call in Arizona.

00:21:56.000 And it was like the record scratch moment. And it's like a lot of people were like, oh,

00:22:01.000 you know, Fox is doing it's part of the steel. And like, this was the signal that they were

00:22:07.000 going to do all this bad stuff.

00:22:10.000 I personally don't think that's how it unfolded.

00:22:11.000 I think it really was a guy at Fox made a wildly aggressive call.

00:22:14.000 It was Chris Stierwalt, Bill Salmon, and Chris, they're all gone.

00:22:19.000 Brett Baer was just following orders.

00:22:21.000 Yeah, he's the guy, he's the guy at the desk, he's their evening news anchor, and he Basically, he announces the calls that the desk makes.

00:22:29.000 He's busy on TV.

00:22:30.000 He's not making the calls himself.

00:22:31.000 He can't do the math.

00:22:32.000 He's talking to the audience.

00:22:33.000 And you can see in that clip, he's pushing back and was pretty upset that he was the guy on screen holding the bag.

00:22:40.000 And so, Tom, do you have a thought there?

00:22:42.000 Yeah.

00:22:42.000 I mean, listen, so that clip is great.

00:22:45.000 It's a great example of, because at that point there was 94% of the vote in, in Ohio and Trump was leading by eight points.

00:22:52.000 And Chris Stierwald was saying, Hey, we don't want to get too out of our skis here.

00:22:55.000 We don't want to get froggy.

00:22:56.000 You know, there's still some votes to come in.

00:22:58.000 And I think Brett rightly pushed back and said, well, wait a minute.

00:23:00.000 What, so how does that play with Ohio with, with the Arizona call that you guys made earlier?

00:23:06.000 And we, then we found out subsequently in, in messages that were released, I think as part of the Dominion suit that, That Brett was very concerned right from the beginning and actually pushed the folks at Fox to basically rescind that call.

00:23:20.000 And he was, he was denied, but I mean, I think he knew right from the beginning, and I've had conversations with Brett about this as well.

00:23:26.000 And I think he, you know, he didn't, they don't give the anchors a heads up as to what calls they're making or when they're making, why they're, why they're making them.

00:23:34.000 He just gets that information and is supposed to, you know, pass it along to the viewers.

00:23:38.000 It is up to the folks at the decision desk.

00:23:39.000 And as you mentioned, that was Bill Salmon, who was running that desk.

00:23:42.000 Stierwalt was on it as well, and they're no longer with Fox News.

00:23:45.000 Yeah, and I'll just say one final thought, Blake.

00:23:47.000 You made a really apt point, is that I was in the White House when that call made, and I was kind of courting a group of people that were very anxious.

00:23:56.000 I said, guys, Trump has a shot here.

00:23:59.000 And we were seeing all this momentum.

00:24:01.000 And within minutes, I'm from Arizona.

00:24:04.000 They call Arizona.

00:24:05.000 And I was humiliated.

00:24:07.000 And I was like, no, no, no, no.

00:24:09.000 And I was calling people and people on the ground in Arizona.

00:24:11.000 They're like, there's no way this should be called yet.

00:24:14.000 Like, yes, Biden had a good showing with early voting.

00:24:18.000 And I remember talking to somebody that knew the Fox news brain room and the Fox news brain room was like, oh yeah, there's no way Trump will get within like a hundred thousand votes.

00:24:28.000 It came down to 10,000 votes.

00:24:30.000 And so it could have went either direction.

00:24:32.000 And so remember Trump ended up winning the late earlies by 60%.

00:24:38.000 And so, Tom, I want to segue here to 2024, because I wanted to set the table there with that.

00:24:44.000 In just a couple weeks, it's like 45, 44 days.

00:24:48.000 Do you think we'll have clarity on who the next president is on election night?

00:24:53.000 No, I don't.

00:24:55.000 Not necessarily because of Arizona.

00:24:56.000 I mean, we just had a poll come out this morning, New York Times, Sienna has Trump up five in Arizona, and he's actually leading in all six of the polls there. 0.91

00:25:04.000 And our average is up by about two points.

00:25:06.000 So he's getting a little bit of separation with Kamala Harris in Arizona.

00:25:10.000 But in Wisconsin, for example, Pennsylvania, those are both states that are going to, they're not going to start counting until after Um, the, the polls close and in Pennsylvania's case, I think they're going to, you know, they could be counting for days in Pennsylvania.

00:25:25.000 And that race is also very, very close, less than one percentage point in our real clear politics average.

00:25:29.000 So, uh, Pennsylvania looks like it's going to be the tipping point, the key to this election.

00:25:34.000 And so I don't think we're going to know, uh, who the president is on election night.

00:25:39.000 And Blake, what are your thoughts?

00:25:40.000 So I was just wondering, you might know this, Tom, if we have, so it looks like we'll have less early voting than in 2020 overall.

00:25:49.000 Does that improve, does that mean we get more ballots counted on election night, the ones that are cast day of?

00:25:55.000 Because I know there were issues in 2020 where they were talking like they had to open all of the envelopes.

00:25:59.000 there was a lot of like busy work that had to be done with ballots that weren't counted early ballots that weren't

00:26:04.000 counted till election night. Do you have any insight on that?

00:26:06.000 Yeah, I mean, there's like 43 states have some sort of early

00:26:11.000 counting process, right? Because the ballots have to be, they

00:26:13.000 have to be processed before that, you know, verified and all that before they can actually be tallied. And some

00:26:19.000 states allow that to happen, you know, days before, and some

00:26:22.000 states, and then they allow the counting of those votes to started at a later date.

00:26:28.000 Um, so, but you're right, there are less early votes, less mail-in votes.

00:26:32.000 Uh, it appears to be this, this time around, obviously because there's, you know, 2020 was during COVID and a lot of people availed themselves of that option.

00:26:40.000 And a lot of states have sort of, sort of clawed back some of those, um, Some of the election laws from 2020.

00:26:46.000 So I do think we'll have less votes.

00:26:48.000 But again, in some of these states, we're talking millions and millions of votes.

00:26:53.000 If they start counting after the polls close on election night, they're going to be counting for days.

00:27:01.000 And again, the two key states where that's going to happen is Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both of which are absolutely razor thin right now.

00:27:09.000 Yeah, and Tom, again, even if all of this was done ethically and correctly and legally, can we all agree that these multiple days of counting has the appearance that deteriorates a fair and open process?

00:27:24.000 There's got to be a better way.

00:27:26.000 We know there's a better way to do this.

00:27:27.000 But Tom, it's as if they're begging for people to get off balance.

00:27:33.000 Yeah, and especially because of the disparity with which the votes write.

00:27:36.000 Democrats avail themselves of mail-in ballots and early vote much more than Republicans.

00:27:40.000 So you do, you get this, this idea of, you know, Republicans typically vote day of and Trump had encouraged.

00:27:48.000 He's, he's been a little bit more amenable to telling folks to, to, you know, do mail-in balloting.

00:27:53.000 But for the most part, he was like, you know, show up on election day.

00:27:56.000 So all of Trump's, You know, votes get tallied early and he goes out to a big lead.

00:28:01.000 And then, uh, you know, as they, as they open some of these mail ballots, um, and start telling those his lead dissipates.

00:28:09.000 And as we get overnight, we saw this in Wisconsin last time around, you know, Milwaukee at three in the morning or when some of these dumps come in of absentee ballots.

00:28:17.000 And it does, it invites the idea that, you know, everything is not on the up and up.

00:28:22.000 And, and obviously that, that is not good for the Republic.

00:28:25.000 It's not good for, um, You know, the foundation of our democracy and our elections.

00:28:29.000 I agree.

00:28:30.000 And I just want to say, Tom, I'm doing my part.

00:28:33.000 I visit RealClearPolitics 55 times a day.

00:28:36.000 So you're getting my CPM.

00:28:37.000 That's good.

00:28:39.000 Okay, very good.

00:28:40.000 Constantly, constantly refresh, refresh, refresh.

00:28:43.000 It is the premier website.

00:28:46.000 And I got to do better.

00:28:47.000 You know, in off-election years, I might visit RCP a couple times.

00:28:51.000 But as soon as you guys have the best horse race coverage, and I know you have other stuff in addition to that.

00:28:56.000 It's not a knock on that other stuff.

00:28:57.000 But once I start to lock in and I want to see where a presidential race is at, I'm sure you see it in the web traffic, Tom.

00:29:03.000 I'm sure it just goes to the moon.

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00:30:21.000 We are here with the gold standard in election coverage, RealClearPolitics.com.

00:30:26.000 Tom, congratulations.

00:30:27.000 What you guys have built there is really the best in the business, and I know this is your Super Bowl season, literally.

00:30:34.000 Tom, in the RealClearPolitics average, number one, talk to us about what it takes to actually be in the blend of polling, because you guys have a very specific methodology.

00:30:43.000 You don't accept every poll that is out there.

00:30:45.000 And then number two, what is your current RCP average show in the battleground states with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

00:30:51.000 So yeah, we definitely take a look at every pollster and we don't accept any campaign polls.

00:30:59.000 We don't put any PAC polls into our averages.

00:31:03.000 It has to be publicly available polling data.

00:31:06.000 Typically, we like to see folks that are attached to a media outlet or someone who's been You know, polling a state for a long time, like every cycle you'll get people who pop up out of nowhere who are suddenly doing battleground state polling.

00:31:18.000 And we typically don't include those folks for a number of cycles until we know who they are and they have a track record and we feel comfortable with them.

00:31:27.000 And so that's sort of how our process works.

00:31:32.000 What's interesting, and I've been saying this, Charlie, you look at Kamala Harris had a couple of good national polls over the

00:31:38.000 weekend, right?

00:31:39.000 The NBC and CBS News had her up five and four points.

00:31:42.000 She's up 2.2% in our Real Clear Politics national average. 1.00

00:31:45.000 That is 16 polls that have been taken over the last three weeks.

00:31:50.000 And yet with the new data that we got this morning from the New York Times, CNN, and

00:31:54.000 some of these battleground states, Trump is up on average by one-tenth of 1%.

00:31:59.000 So when you go back and think to 2016, Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1%.

00:32:05.000 She was leading by 3% in the polls.

00:32:06.000 She was leading by 3% in the polls.

00:32:09.000 She won by 2.1 and she lost the electoral college.

00:32:12.000 This has all the hallmarks to me.

00:32:15.000 It reminds me very much of 2016.

00:32:20.000 Kamala Harris is ahead, and I think Trump's only leading in two of the 16 national polls.

00:32:25.000 But if you go, as I mentioned before, in Arizona, he's got a two-point lead there.

00:32:30.000 He's leading in every poll in Arizona.

00:32:32.000 He's got a two-point lead in Georgia.

00:32:33.000 He's leading in all seven polls that we have in our average in Georgia.

00:32:37.000 He's got a narrow lead in North Carolina.

00:32:40.000 And Kamala Harris has got narrow leads in Nevada and Pennsylvania is less than a point. 1.00

00:32:47.000 And then she's up about one point in Wisconsin and 1.7 in Michigan right now.

00:32:52.000 So pretty tight in the battleground states.

00:32:56.000 But certainly, you know, I think right now it's about as close as you can possibly be.

00:33:01.000 And again, if you take and translate those into the Electoral College Kamala Harris is winning the Electoral College, I think, 272 to 266 or something like that in our map.

00:33:12.000 But if Pennsylvania flips, you know, that's the key state in this entire thing right now.

00:33:17.000 So, Tom, what does your data show about the U.S.

00:33:19.000 Senate?

00:33:20.000 Who is likely to control it and what states are going to matter?

00:33:23.000 The Senate is looking good for Republicans.

00:33:26.000 It's a good year for the Republicans map wise, right?

00:33:29.000 There are 34 seats up, 23 defended by Democrats.

00:33:32.000 West Virginia is basically a pickup for Republicans.

00:33:35.000 I don't think there's anybody.

00:33:37.000 In America, who thinks that a Democrat is going to win that seat.

00:33:40.000 And so outside of that, the Democrats are doing pretty well in a lot of these incumbents, even when Biden was sort of failing back before he dropped out.

00:33:53.000 Democrats were running pretty well ahead of Biden.

00:33:56.000 And so those races have tightened.

00:33:59.000 But Democrats are still ahead in places like Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and the like.

00:34:07.000 The problem is, Is Montana, where Jon Tester has not led in a single poll since Tim she won the Republican nomination there.

00:34:16.000 And that's a state that's going to go for Trump by, you know, 15, 18, 20 points or more.

00:34:22.000 And so Jon Tester, while he's been able to win in the past, it's going to be a real uphill battle for him.

00:34:29.000 He's going to have to get like one out of every three Trump voters to turn and vote for him on, on the split their ticket and vote for him.

00:34:35.000 And that's just.

00:34:36.000 I don't see that happening either and so just based on that alone...

00:34:40.000 Republicans would take the Senate 51-49.

00:34:43.000 Now, could they win some of these other races?

00:34:45.000 Pennsylvania's tightened up quite a bit.

00:34:48.000 You know, you've got, I think the Michigan race is tightened up a little bit.

00:34:51.000 Arizona's tightened up a little bit.

00:34:53.000 The only one that really hasn't tightened is Nevada, where Jackie Rosen still has a pretty commanding lead.

00:34:59.000 And then you've got your sort of outlier in Maryland with Larry Hogan, who's within striking distance, which would be, I mean, that would be, Obviously, if Hogan wins, I think Republicans will be in the 50s.

00:35:10.000 They say that is the most Democrat state in the country, Maryland?

00:35:14.000 It could be.

00:35:15.000 Yeah.

00:35:16.000 You would know, Tom.

00:35:17.000 It's top five most Democrat states in the country.

00:35:19.000 It'd be amazing.

00:35:20.000 Tom, thank you so much.

00:35:21.000 We're out of time.

00:35:22.000 RealCodePolitics.com.

00:35:23.000 Thank you.

00:35:24.000 You got it.

00:35:24.000 Thanks, Charlie.

00:35:25.000 Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

00:35:26.000 Email us, as always, freedom at CharlieKirk.com.

00:35:28.000 Thanks so much for listening, and God bless.

The Charlie Kirk Show - September 24, 2024

Will We Know the Results on Election Night?

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