00:00:00.000At the end of the day, why are people loyal to Ottawa?
00:00:02.920It seems clear to me that the loyalists believe in redistribution
00:00:08.060and they have a hostility towards Western civilization,
00:00:12.140so they want to engage in social engineering.
00:00:15.140It just is the case that the Quebec independence movement
00:00:19.020has been led by the cultural elites, the media, academics, artists,
00:00:25.120whereas that is the flip side in Alberta.
00:00:27.180With Alberta, it's a serious threat because Alberta has the headroom economically to become independent and still have money left over.
00:00:37.900And almost without exception, Fergus, the refrain that we hear from people really that actually differ quite significantly on other political issues.
00:00:47.400But if they're in favor of Alberta independence, the thing they keep repeating and emphasizing is that actually they view Alberta independence as a return to what they knew of what Canada was, what it felt to be Canadian up until, you know, 15, 20 years ago.
00:01:07.900Hi, everyone. Welcome back to The Critical Compass. My name's Mike, and we're here with
00:01:24.660James, and we're very pleased to be joined by Mr. Fergus Hodgson. We met Fergus just
00:01:29.900a couple of weeks ago. He did a speech at a Jason Levine event in Leduc. I wrote a short
00:01:37.900biography of mr hodgson i'm going to read it now and then we're going to get fergus to uh
00:01:43.260to correct anything i got wrong and expand from there so i have uh fergus hodgson is a modern
00:01:48.460day renaissance man that's my words with degrees in finance economics and political science he's
00:01:53.740an author publisher and chartered alternative investment analyst and founder of econ america's
00:01:58.780llc a financial consultancy devoted to alternative investments stakeholder management and
00:02:04.220and jurisdictional arbitrage. How did I do? That's all accurate. I mean, that's 100%
00:02:09.860correct. So, I mean, except the Renaissance man, that's subjective. So I'll leave that to
00:02:15.860people's judgment. Yeah. Well, you're certainly a fascinating man. We really like listening to you
00:02:22.020in your speech. And you probably, I guess the thrust of your speech at that event
00:02:27.280was how you were making the case for how Alberta should be reasonably
00:02:33.800really the most wealthy nation per capita on the planet
00:02:37.500and how we have currently, to your knowledge,
00:02:42.340we have currently the most robust and active independence movement
00:05:54.560And in all three cases, to me, it's just a very no-brainer.
00:05:57.880it's it would be a wonderful uh win but i mentioned that there just isn't huge support for
00:06:05.880it it's like we have this what i call the status quo bias and i think it's it's an untapped
00:06:12.440opportunity and the fact is that i don't know you know like i said i've been following these things
00:06:17.480for years and i actually think this can happen in alberta that all the momentum is on the independent
00:06:23.320independent side right if we were to go back 20 years there would be maybe single digit support
00:06:30.280for this and now there's maybe 40 percent even higher which suggests the trajectory is incredibly
00:06:35.960positive and so i don't know of any even in the united states i think south carolina has the most
00:06:42.280support for independence from the united states and even there it's maybe 25 maybe 20 it's it's
00:06:47.640it's just people are so accustomed to what they know yeah
00:06:53.320Yeah. And I guess Canada is unique in one way. We have all, like considering our downsides, we do have a established legal pathway for succession outlined by the Supreme Court where other countries don't even recognize that to the point. So there's an additional hurdle. So the benefit of the Supreme Court recognizing that a clear democratic will has to be respected.
00:14:29.060And so it just doesn't like they're not going to fit into this oppressive versus oppressed narrative because they're capitalists, you know, white males or whatever you want to call them.
00:14:40.660And it just doesn't fit the progressive narrative.
00:14:44.940You know, so there's not going to be sympathy for them.
00:14:46.840so i and my personal view is that i would love to see quebec be independent and i think that
00:14:55.020would be really healthy for them but i agree with you that they've been able to get a lot of what
00:14:59.100they wanted already within canada since their grievances were more easily addressed alberta's
00:15:05.720grievances cannot be addressed there it's just impossible to be addressed within confederation
00:15:10.140yeah yeah and it's you know we've we've kind of joked on the show before about how you know we
00:15:17.620would be happy if at the end of all this you know if if alberta got 10 of the consideration that
00:15:23.000quebec does you know in confederation but um obviously that's that's not going to be enough
00:15:28.720anymore but um i i think that there is a i don't know there's sort of a psychological aspect at
00:15:37.120play to where you have people who, I feel like nowadays, maybe this is more of a psychology
00:15:42.380question than anything in any of our expertises, but there does seem to be a psychological
00:15:48.320component where people nowadays have like a sort of reflexive opposition to what they
00:15:56.660see as like a boisterous, like a Trumpian, you know, sort of, I'm not sure really of
00:16:04.580the of the term i'm looking for but somebody who's who who knows they're you know a person very
00:16:09.960confident in the movement we can support ourselves we have the money to do this we they get people
00:16:15.320get their their backs up a little bit when they when they hear this i think the i think the uh0.62
00:16:20.040the kiwis and the aussies call this a tall poppy syndrome right you know they don't people yeah0.98
00:16:25.880people don't want to feel like they're in any way making themselves or or don't want to be0.99
00:16:31.280associated with other people who they get this feeling from putting themselves above others
00:16:36.040do you sort of understand what i'm saying do you get that as well i do mike yeah and this is where
00:16:40.980you would have a stronger feel for canadian society than i would right but it absolutely
00:16:49.380is the case that in australia and new zealand we do have the tall poppy syndrome and i suspect it
00:16:54.640is basically the same in Canada, where it's just not socially acceptable to show pride in oneself
00:17:03.220or to think, you know, to be, think as the Trump would say, I'm the greatest or whatever. It's just,
00:17:08.760it's just counter to a very egalitarian streak. And maybe that is, you know, a hangover from
00:17:16.580the British empire or the feudal system, who knows where it comes from. That's a complicated
00:17:22.220question but it exists and yes the pompousness maybe of some americans really rubs the anglosphere
00:17:33.900people the wrong way yeah and so that's why this trump derangement syndrome has become so pernicious
00:17:39.900or prevalent in in these countries in canada australia new zealand and it has gone beyond
00:17:46.220rationality just it's it's just like this very guttural impulse this disgust towards that that's
00:17:51.900right and i think it's unproductive or it's a wasted it's it's wasted energy but it absolutely
00:17:57.580is in the um it's in in the arena and i personally try to avoid aligning myself too closely with any
00:18:05.900politician because he will always let you down basically people are human and but and it's the
00:18:13.900it's the same with with Donald Trump I don't want to align myself with him and I don't
00:18:18.020think the independence movement should even though of course there are plenty of people
00:18:21.660within it who have an affection towards him yeah yeah yeah it's a it's a hard thing to
00:18:28.160navigate because the associations are there um even there's that residual baggage of the
00:18:35.00051st state yeah yeah like that that rhetoric pops up time and time again even though we
00:18:43.360could say well the support isn't there from the actual independent supporters we don't want to
00:18:47.360trade a neglectful government 3 000 kilometers away in ottawa with another one 3 000 kilometers
00:18:55.200away in washington yeah so like we want to run our own ship but that's not enough because these
00:19:01.440arguments will pop up obviously we don't want to feed we don't want to give them ammo we don't
00:19:07.280want to trigger any tds um from people so i avoid any like if if there's a rally and somebody has
00:19:16.800an american flag i don't film it if i'm like trying to capture footage and stuff like it's
00:19:21.760not helping it's a terrible idea and it is a minority of like it but all it takes one and
00:19:27.200then you have cbc and ctv news just they always now use that that's their favorite shot now is
00:19:35.760the combined american alberta flag um so it's a it's a difficult thing to to navigate but um yeah
00:19:44.480it's an uphill battle when they want to squash the movement yeah someone i admire and i i brought
00:19:51.920his book up to show people is cory morgan right and the book is the sovereignty's handbook right
00:19:58.160and i just strongly recommend people read this and he put out a video like i listened to almost
00:20:05.520all his uh commentaries or presentations on this topic and he just said if you want to know the
00:20:11.040weaknesses of the independence movement look at where the critics are going and of course they
00:20:16.800want to demonize us and call us all sorts of names all the pejoratives we know them
00:20:22.400and they also want to call unfortunately in canada being american as a pejorative
00:20:27.680it's a many people so they want to call it some kind of american psyop or movement or whatever
00:20:32.720you want to call yeah but the truth is that it's really just not an issue down here no one even
00:20:38.640knows where alberta is and it's not a high priority the united states is so busy dealing with so many
00:20:43.920other projects you might say whether it's venezuela or iran or ukraine or who knows what it's just
00:20:49.280a litany of challenges that alberta is not a high priority at all but because many albertans and
00:20:57.040canadians more broadly speaking are fearful of the united states or have a negative knee-jerk
00:21:02.560reaction i think you're right it's it's it's something that that the regime media will continue
00:21:08.400to play up even though we all know that it's a small minority of the people who support independence
00:21:13.920now it is a minority and maybe even a vocal minority uh so there will be some people who
00:21:19.840will resist uh keeping that keeping a lid on that i think it's a very bad idea joining the united
00:21:26.400States, but, and I think, unfortunately, people who live outside the United States can have
00:21:34.640a more positive or nostalgic view of the country, and they'll say, oh, the United States is
00:21:42.360a republic with separation of powers and limited government, and I just, I think people need
00:21:48.260to be a bit more realistic or show a bit more awareness in that regard, because the United
00:21:54.440States has many of the same problems as Canada. And if anyone actually reads the U.S. Constitution
00:22:00.540or Declaration of Independence, you will see that the federal government is basically the
00:22:05.680anti-American government, not the American government. And I just, I think it would be a
00:22:13.600terrible mistake. I do want and hope that the U.S. federal government will support and recognize
00:22:22.180Alberta independence, but permit Alberta and be supportive of Alberta being its own nation,
00:22:28.540much like Panama is in Central America. Yeah. You know, we we hear that sort of
00:22:37.160doom sort of, you know, complaint all the time of like, well, if Alberta were to separate the US
00:22:44.060would just, you know, Trump would invade and, you know, swallow us up and we would be for it. And
00:22:50.040And it's like the fact is if the U.S. wanted to do that now, they could do it for the entire country.
00:22:56.040I mean, we are our entire national budget.
00:23:17.600the fact that they don't you know it's not a it's not a political win for them to do that so
00:23:21.500i keep thinking about in these conversations are you familiar with that that mad men meme where
00:23:28.100it's like the elevator like the the one marketing guy character and john ham in the elevator and
00:23:34.440the one little guy says like i feel sorry for you and then john ham's character says i don't think
00:23:39.260about you at all that's sort of what i feel like the relationship between canada and the u.s is
00:23:43.900right now it really is and you might even say it's a personality flaw of americans that they just
00:23:50.460have so little interest about it regarding canada uh that they just see themselves as the as the
00:23:56.940topic and in many ways the media here don't really care about about independence unless it has
00:24:02.380statehood attached to it or unless trump is part of the story so it's just and it's something that
00:24:09.180i've wrestled with for the years that i've lived here the way that americans are incredibly uh
00:24:15.900focused on their own country and not the rest of the world it's it's because i'm from a country of
00:24:20.460just five million people new zealand so we don't have that perspective but then of course we have
00:24:27.020not led the world in so many regards so we can't really claim that status americans would you know
00:24:32.460in terms of the popular culture have been so dominant in so many ways that in some ways maybe
00:24:37.820they've earned a little bit of that and even if you think about let's say films coming out of
00:24:43.740canada the most prominent film to come out of canada was my big fat greek wedding which is
00:24:49.180great like i enjoyed that movie but the comparison between hollywood and canadian let's say the the
00:24:55.500cultural or um arts is just i mean there's no comparison basically so yeah i mean i'm trying
00:25:03.820trying to think how to round that off in terms of the whole invasion idea i think it is ridiculous
00:25:09.320and there's just no appetite in the united states to do that i mean they have a hard enough appetite0.96
00:25:15.800you know hard enough um time going after crazy islamic dictatorships or whatever it may be
00:25:22.020let alone attacking a bosom buddy ally that is has open trade i mean it would just be it would
00:25:27.560make no sense at all so i don't see that i just see it as a non-starter it's one of these
00:25:32.640boogeymen that critics are going to throw out there because they have no real good arguments.
00:25:37.940That's the real problem. And we're seeing this very clearly now in these open discussions that
00:25:44.580rather than engage in any kind of healthy debate, it's largely just calling people treasonous or
00:25:51.680traitors or disloyal or whatever it may be. It's a lot of hyperbole and also just basically saying
00:25:59.360you cannot do it. There's very little actual discussion because the case for Alberta being
00:26:04.920in Canada is so weak that they don't have much leg to stand on. And that's why I think
00:26:10.960the next six months are going to be a great success for the independence movement so long
00:26:17.140as we can stay organized and on task. Because I just think the numbers, the argument, it's
00:26:24.900so strong. And I am concerned, I mean, you might have seen this, I'm sure you have, about
00:26:32.200the allegation that the Prime Minister wants to use the Emergencies Act or the War Powers
00:26:38.640Act, as it was called, against Alberta. And that suggests to you that they really have
00:26:42.920no argument and they're very afraid. They realize that exactly what we think, that this
00:26:47.640will grow and there's a strong likelihood of this referendum succeeding.
00:26:51.040Hmm. Yeah. Sorry. Sorry. Just to piggyback. Sorry, James, I'm going to double up here. And then you, you ask a real long question after, uh, just your point about, uh, uh, being called traitors and the word treasonous and things like this. It's funny because, you know, we've interviewed so many people involved in this movement or, or, or just supporters of it.
00:27:12.020And almost without exception, Fergus, the, the refrain that we hear from people really that actually differ quite significantly on other political issues, but if they're in favor of Alberta independence, the thing they keep repeating and, and emphasizing is that actually they view Alberta independence as a return to what they knew of what Canada was, what it felt to be Canadian up until, you know, 15, 20 years ago.
00:27:38.920yeah i mean i agree with that entirely that the in many ways the alberta independence movement
00:27:45.800is a restoration of the best of canada and some americans would even say that applies to their
00:27:52.660country too that they were preserving the best of the british empire at that time and trying to
00:27:58.300impede let's say the tyranny of the king at that time and so the albertans are trying to preserve
00:28:03.600the best of Canada against the tyranny of Ottawa and I mean it the problem is that Canada has just
00:28:11.000changed as you say so much in the last generation in the last 30 odd years that it's I wouldn't say
00:28:17.340it's unrecognizable but culturally that let's say the Canada brand is nothing like what it was when
00:28:24.120my mother was growing up right back in the 60s and 70s and at that time you had people from Europe
00:28:31.140going to Canada for much better prospects, but how much does that even happen anymore?
00:28:35.780It's almost not a thing. And so I just think that that pioneer Canada
00:28:44.300is what Alberta independence is all about. So that's why in my own writing, my own discussions,
00:28:52.420I try to make be clear that the enemy is Ottawa. It is not Canada. And you can be proud of,
00:29:00.600you know canada's history even if you realize that the the confederation has become toxic at this
00:29:05.480point yeah and it just in terms of the branding too this is another reason why i think this is
00:29:11.080going to win because even if we go beyond the numbers of the the cpp or the debts or
00:29:17.240just gdp per capita or whatever it may be the branding of ottawa is atrocious they're basically
00:29:24.680the soy soy boy wimpy capital of the world at this point and obviously uh trudeau led the charge in
00:29:31.960this regard whereas alberta is something to be proud of you are real frontier hard-working pioneer0.56
00:29:38.760men and who wants to be part of this weak uh you know spineless city that's just a predator or a
00:29:47.400parasite versus a proud man who wants to be his own king basically and so i think that is the
00:29:55.560alberta brand is great i mean it's something that many people relate to want to be a part of
00:30:00.280are attracted to and i know that one of my friends from saskatchewan who lives in the united states
00:30:06.440he and i of course would would be the first ones to want to live in a free alberta right right now
00:30:11.320i can't i don't want to be associated with ottawa but it's taxes and many other policies
00:30:15.320and so it's hard for me to go back to canada these days but of course a free alberta would
00:30:20.700be attractive to many many people like me yeah and you would naturally see a influx of highly
00:30:28.340skilled talented people who want who who value freedom and who value everything that alberta
00:30:35.580stands for and if five million is enough for new zealand to be its own country then five million
00:30:41.300enough for alberta with with alberta's land mass and gdp like you still see this argument pop up
00:30:49.060that people said like well alberta doesn't have the population to be its own country and like well
00:30:53.700who says these things it's so ridiculous all kinds of people yeah this is they these arguments have
00:30:59.860to be like sometimes you still have to address them in the comments or the random people who will
00:31:06.180still say that it's partially because there's a lot of people who haven't thought deeply about
00:31:11.460this so they just feel that canada is immutable that a country cannot be changed people should
00:31:19.140not have a right for self-determination and they feel like a province leaving is destroying a
00:31:24.180country that it only works with every single province there and they kind of have a point
00:31:30.980that like canada is dependent on alberta but if the rest of canada is dependent on alberta
00:31:39.940it would be in the best interest for every other province to grow and adapt the way that they
00:31:49.220operate to be more self-sufficient if they are currently relying on an oil money that they hate
00:31:56.500that they're actively suppressing to pay for all their services anyways that's not a that's not a
00:32:02.580sustainable and or functioning or a healthy relationship right now yeah james i mean you're
00:32:09.140touching on a real um thorny point here people have an emotional connection to canada and if they
00:32:20.420uh consuming the cbc they have an emotional connection to ottawa and they will basically
00:32:25.700put the cart before the horse they will re you know reverse engineer arguments to fit with
00:32:32.180those emotions so of course we know that canada was not always in its current structure newfoundland
00:32:38.740only joined just over 50 years ago or 60 years ago so does that mean was that wrong did we violate
00:32:45.620canada's unity or structure or what or whatever at that time and we also know that many parts of
00:32:52.580canada did not become part of the country voluntarily right so it it's it's a very con
00:33:00.660there's not a lot of it's it's a foundation of sand this argument that the the current uh
00:33:06.260structure of canada is just forever why who knows but that is a very weak argument and it in my view
00:33:14.580it is purely trotted out by people who have an emotional connection to ottawa or canada
00:33:21.300and are consuming too much of the raging media and are reaching to try to find something to
00:33:27.300back up their case now it is true that if when alberta leaves the future of canada is unclear
00:33:40.020and uh probably it is the case that the canada that we know today will go through a restructuring
00:33:47.860and perhaps other provinces will leave some will probably try to join the united states who knows
00:33:52.420and but i just see that as a great thing you know this is where maybe because i did not grow up in
00:33:58.420canada i have more of a nostalgia for alberta where i went so often with my mother and family
00:34:03.860than i do for the rest of canada and also because when i went to canada looking for work i had a
00:34:09.380really hard time and i worked mostly in nova scotia and i was one of these people who really
00:34:15.940felt the brunt of a weak economy and lack of opportunity and as soon as i got to the united
00:34:21.140states i had great success and and you start to think is the problem me or is the problem
00:34:26.180canada the economy there and you realize that it is the economy that it's not you basically you
00:34:31.220you know? Yeah. Yeah. And I think you have an advantage as well of being, um, being able to
00:34:36.900see it a little bit more objectively from, uh, I mean, you're, you're a money guy, you're a
00:34:40.340numbers guy, right? Um, I'm curious what you think, like you, we will of course direct people
00:34:45.620to your, to your speech in Leduc the other week, but I'm curious the, on the other side of the
00:34:51.000argument, what would be your prediction for? And his book. Yeah, sure. And his book. Yes,
00:34:56.880That's right. Let's maybe explore what you think the, what will be the immediate effects
00:35:04.520financially that you predict if Alberta separates? Now, of course, I know this is a process and it
00:35:10.520won't happen overnight, but what do you suspect will be the greatest economic impacts and maybe
00:35:16.880the response of an Alberta-less Canada? Well, many things. My personal sense is that once
00:35:25.960this is achieved the gains will be so enormous people wonder why were we ever why did why was
00:35:33.360this even a question to begin with right and the big difference right now but between even just
00:35:39.540being in the united states versus being in canada is the tax burden so the most notable change will
00:35:45.660be a massive reduction in taxation which is i mean huge for many of us i mean it's it's a real weight
00:35:51.460off your back. So in life, we typically have some relatively fixed expenses, right? Our utilities,
00:35:59.640accommodation, basic foods, maybe some vocational training, what have you, things we just have,
00:36:05.300we need to get by. And we also have our tax burden. And then whatever's left after these
00:36:10.780things is more our discretionary income. And the big challenge is that in Canada, much like back
00:36:15.760in New Zealand, there's just very little of that left. Canadians have very little room to breathe.0.84
00:36:20.820And one of the first chapters, I think it's the second chapter, I don't remember right now, in the book is bankruptcies or insolvencies tell the tale.
00:41:42.460So I don't think Canada or Ottawa will ever recover from that,
00:41:46.780that Americans have such a lower view or dim view of Canada since that time
00:41:52.980because that really captured the attention down here.
00:41:55.920now just there is there are i mean not everything is bad in canada of course uh the mining sector
00:42:03.160of canada is one of the leading lights that i don't know if you guys know this but in vancouver
00:42:08.540there's basically the the hub of all the the headquarters capital of mining from around the
00:42:15.400world that most of the mining companies have their headquarters in vancouver however that is
00:42:22.600precarious it is not guaranteed forever and mining companies are very let's say savvy and make
00:42:27.740calculated decisions and that particular success story for canada could soon be lost that places
00:42:36.900like nevada are challenging uh let's say the jurisdictional competitiveness of canadian
00:42:43.360provinces so i think if alberta were to leave that would really do uh it would undermine even
00:42:50.240further Canada's reputation as a mining safe haven, at least for setting up a headquarters
00:42:55.120and getting regulatory approval, because still the Toronto Stock Exchange and the TSV, the
00:43:04.920Toronto Venture Exchange, are where many junior and senior mining companies list themselves.
00:43:13.240So it's almost like you're one election away from it being a regulatory environment that
00:43:19.340they hate yes yeah it's it wouldn't take much and we're like it could just be one environmental law
00:43:26.560and now every single mining company is in violation of that new law and they would have
00:43:33.760to either restructure they have to modify the way that they work and now they would go somewhere
00:43:40.420else like it could be as simple as that yeah like because the money companies unlike other businesses
00:43:46.620are very nimble and they respond to incentives carefully so they could move now of course there
00:43:53.420is healthy momentum in canada canada both vancouver and to a lesser degree toronto
00:43:59.260have many of the mining headquarters and that's become the standard path to especially for junior
00:44:05.820mining companies but i mean they're like i said they're very agile and they will go where they
00:44:12.860think the best or most welcoming environment is and of course the americans would welcome them
00:44:17.820with open arms and the american regulatory framework would would evolve to incorporate them
00:44:24.220already you know so already there are many companies that do list on u.s exchanges so it's
00:44:29.500not like canada has a monopoly like people could make that transition without too much difficulty
00:44:34.460it's more just tradition at this point since the 90s the money companies have been based in vancouver
00:44:39.980Interesting. Yeah, that's been a talking point as well about how, you know, um, Alberta independence will, uh, you know, this discussion is scaring away investment and it's, uh, you know, it's, we're gonna, uh, paradoxically, uh, you know, ruin our own industry.
00:44:56.540And it's like, I don't know, man, everywhere I look, every single thing I see and read is that companies, especially heavy industry companies in any sort of heavy industry, they absolutely eat up any opportunity to get to an environment of less government regulation, less overt, fake environmental policy.
00:45:19.820and like i i don't see how there's any way possible that uh an independent alberta doesn't
00:45:25.000become an absolute haven for all of these guys yeah so in some ways this brings us back to the
00:45:31.640question of 5 million or the the population because new zealand does have 5 million now but
00:45:38.100when i was a child in the 80s and early 90s it was just 3 million and new zealand really became
00:45:43.520a successful country with just one or two million people and if you look at the most successful
00:45:48.340countries right now i mean the country i really admire is lichtenstein and they have 40 000 people
00:45:53.620okay so these micro states in many regards are the future they're the most um
00:46:00.900innovative they they offer the most accountable government places like monaco so okay now in
00:46:09.860terms of the let's say the regulatory environment in alberta the big concern i have and even
00:46:17.060regime or legacy media outlets are getting on to this point is the decline of the high trust
00:46:22.700society in canada now my other book is it is about latin america it's called the latin america red
00:46:29.900pill and i talk about how the lack of trust in latin america is just crippling for economic
00:46:35.420development and so basically the the biggest companies down there tend to be either enormous
00:46:40.580cronies like petrobus this big oil company out of brazil autobrite or they tend to be family
00:46:48.420conglomerates because families will trust each other more so than just the general public so
00:46:54.340they really have a difficult time building stock markets and in broader public you know secondary
00:46:58.980markets the the truth is that canada as far as i can tell is going through a free fall in public
00:47:07.380trust right now and that's going to harm incredibly uh deeply the growth potential of the country it
00:47:15.940already is happening right so uh the the most the countries with the most trust in the world
00:47:22.340are the scandinavian countries finland denmark sweden norway and new zealand and canada are
00:47:30.020are it's up there right there and maybe so their trust level is about 50 percent and the united
00:47:36.900states is somewhat lower but so to me you can put fancy regulations you can make fancy constitutions
00:47:45.460but what is really crucial to investment economic development business growth especially in the
00:47:52.020let's say the the small business space where there's more innovation more real uh substantive
00:47:57.060growth going on that will that relies on trust because a lot of these small businesses they
00:48:02.340don't have the the the capacity to hire fancy lawyers or prepare fancy contracts or a plan for
00:48:08.180the future that they're just going to survive surviving and they have to be able to trust those
00:48:13.060around them and act in a more informal manner and that's where i see the real problem for canada that
00:48:20.340uh you're having a more divided society where people just do not trust each other and i hate
00:48:26.740to say there's more corruption in government so that infrastructure is becoming less reliable
00:48:34.180it goes hand in hand with um so there is a difference we've talked about this before of
00:48:40.660difference between multi-ethnic and multicultural where you can have different ethnicities
00:48:46.900with the same fundamental beliefs and values and you have a glue that keeps them together
00:48:51.460and unified in a way that you don't have when you have pockets of different cultures
00:48:57.780all speaking their own language and they have a in-group preference so they're going to stay
00:49:02.980together and that nothing fractionates a country more than getting these essentially these these
00:49:10.500pockets these little on the bramptons or the uh the the stories of of canada and alberta's not
00:49:19.060immune to that given enough time right to like the the amount of it in albertas it's not as critical
00:49:28.180as some places in canada but if not for independence now it's or if not for some
00:49:36.500provincial control over immigration and or some value first messaging about assimilation this
00:49:44.500problem's not going to get better and so this is something i try to reflect on and communicate with
00:49:51.940either friends and family that are they feel very nostalgic for canada yeah and but or like they
00:49:58.120they love canada and but they can't articulate that the canada that they love is this fictional
00:50:04.480place that doesn't really fully exist anymore what they're loving now is not actually canada
00:50:11.240it's it's the surface level representation of it it exists in their mind it's propped up by like
00:50:18.120anytime you see red or a canadian flag or maple syrup these things invoke that same like it's
00:50:25.420this emotional it resonates emotionally but it doesn't relate to the practical reality of canada
00:50:33.440And all you have to do is take one of Canada's most beloved and kind of, uh, maybe this is, feels like this is one of Canada's best brands for a while is Tim Hortons.
00:50:49.040And how Canadian does it feel when you go and set, like you, you're not even hearing English being spoken.
00:50:56.060And so like, not to, not to downplay any of the people just trying to get ahead and trying to make a living, but that represents the, the kind of those.
00:51:08.680It's a perfect microcosm of the, uh, of the country.
00:51:11.320Nothing sums it up better than just going into your beloved Tim Hortons.
00:57:16.040I mean, we could talk to a whole new episode on that topic.
00:57:19.500But first, anyone who has traveled the world, I've lived in Guatemala, Argentina, Ireland, Canada, the United States, New Zealand, all over the place, Paraguay, Ecuador.
00:59:25.420And I just think it's really unfortunate, this kind of hollow rhetoric, this kind of
00:59:32.620hurling of pejoratives is effective often, unfortunately, but it is inaccurate.
00:59:40.180And we've been to countless events, rallies, we've had numerous conversations and I've
00:59:51.260the camera out i've been filming what i can and i have not seen a case of an event where like
00:59:56.960one independent supporter gave another independent supporter a hard time for being a different
01:00:04.760ethnic group right they care that they're there representing the movement trying to build bridges
01:00:11.440and trying to spread the word like that matters above everything else in those kind of cases and
01:00:18.140you think with all the events that we've been to if this was a problem we would we would be seeing
01:00:24.460well first of all it would show up on just random cell phone videos it would be hard to hide it
01:00:29.660would be something that like you would have no shortage of evidence of examples and even just
01:00:37.260to point to like yeah well is a ethno state necessarily good let's say we had a bunch of like
01:00:45.500the thing is you can have a bunch of white people with blue hair and the most marxist ideas and0.84
01:00:55.140that's not going to produce a good society so in that case like okay well what's the skin color0.93
01:01:00.820doing if it's if things are not grounded in shared values it doesn't matter if there's0.86
01:01:07.180homogenous external identifiers at this point yeah you know i don't i don't want to give such
01:01:12.960people attacking us even an inch because yes it is true that people from the british isles
01:01:18.960especially scotland england uh built or pioneered alberta and then we had more central europeans
01:01:26.320come in at a in a later period there's nothing to be ashamed of right do they just hate it i mean
01:01:32.320it's just a fact of history so i don't i don't want to give them an inch to attack us and they
01:01:40.040have built, yes, like I said, a meritocratic province that promotes competition, open competition
01:01:45.880where people gravitate towards. And I realize this is going to come up more and more. So I don't want
01:01:53.240anyone to feel at all ashamed of Alberta or Alberta's history. And the truth is Alberta
01:02:00.040at the very heart of Alberta is meritocracy and not discrimination. So I think people who do this
01:02:07.660again it's it's a cart before the horse scenario with it just looking for any kind of excuse to
01:02:11.800beat up on this when it's just not accurate fantastically said i i can't agree more um
01:02:19.240maybe james has another question he'd like to ask you i i got i got one kind of in the in the
01:02:24.840chamber here that i want you to uh i want you to stake your stake your professional reputation on
01:02:30.820this uh what is your going into the final six months uh yeah six months or so of this um
01:02:37.700campaign we know you know barring anything ridiculous from happening we know that we're
01:02:42.880going to be having a referendum in october yeah make a prediction what do you think is going to
01:02:48.280happen what what do you think the result will be what do you think the response you know either way
01:02:53.360from from the the movement from the federal government will be um what's kind of your
01:02:58.420feeling about about where we're headed okay two things first i do i do think the referendum will
01:03:04.220prevail it'll be a narrow majority so between 50 and 55 percent and i think the united states will
01:03:12.360provide some level of protection to alberta to avoid any kind of military confrontation with
01:03:20.680Canada or Ottawa. And so there is a challenge that about 40% of Albertans are dead against this,
01:03:30.380right? They have been propagandized by the CBC. All these pejoratives have worked on them.
01:03:35.220And so there's a strong portion of Alberta that it's going to be very hard to persuade them
01:03:40.600towards independence. However, we have about 40% now in favor and about 20% on the fence.
01:03:48.820And I'm optimistic that a majority of those people on the fence will go for independence when there's a more open campaign and debate.
01:03:57.620Why do I think the United States will recognize and defend Alberta?
01:04:02.460They don't want some kind of military confrontation on their doorstep or across the fence.
01:04:07.680they and further it will be a geopolitical win for the united states that there'll be less power
01:04:15.940less financial might in ottawa which is inherently anti-american and more influence in a pro-us or a
01:04:25.640close ally so it's alberta independence is a real win for the united states even even as alberta
01:04:32.060will remain independent it'll still be a close ally and less of the political influence and
01:04:37.360wealth will be going to Ottawa, which is more closely aligning with China, the Chinese communist
01:04:41.280party and with the European union. And in terms of the actual time for the negotiation, I, this
01:04:47.620is where I must admit, I just can't make a comment on that because I'm not an expert on the, that
01:04:52.000legal process. Someone like Keith Wilson would be more qualified to talk about that. Yeah. Well,
01:04:58.120And to follow up, post-referendum, do you think that B.C. and the rest of Canada will be so spiteful that they will shoot themselves in the foot to harm themselves just to spite Alberta?
01:05:15.680Like, do you think B.C. would restrict pipeline?
01:08:45.160The number of people who actually engage in the political realm is a tiny fraction of the population.
01:08:50.300Most people are just passive or apathetic or what have you.
01:08:54.700A few people are really making a difference.
01:08:57.080And so I would not lessen or doubt anyone's capacity, even if you turn up to these events, just another person or another dozen people make a difference.
01:09:07.220So it's amazing how in a future country of 5 million people, maybe just about 10,000 people are going to make this happen.
01:09:16.400That's awesome. It's so cool to think about.
01:09:18.800Fergus Hodgson, do you have any events coming up? Are you planning on being back in the province anytime soon?