The Critical Compass Podcast - Albertans are WINNERS & Will Be the Wealthiest Nation Per Capita on Earth ｜ Fergus Hodgson

00:00:00.000 At the end of the day, why are people loyal to Ottawa?

00:00:02.920 It seems clear to me that the loyalists believe in redistribution

00:00:08.060 and they have a hostility towards Western civilization,

00:00:12.140 so they want to engage in social engineering.

00:00:15.140 It just is the case that the Quebec independence movement

00:00:19.020 has been led by the cultural elites, the media, academics, artists,

00:00:25.120 whereas that is the flip side in Alberta.

00:00:27.180 With Alberta, it's a serious threat because Alberta has the headroom economically to become independent and still have money left over.

00:00:37.900 And almost without exception, Fergus, the refrain that we hear from people really that actually differ quite significantly on other political issues.

00:00:47.400 But if they're in favor of Alberta independence, the thing they keep repeating and emphasizing is that actually they view Alberta independence as a return to what they knew of what Canada was, what it felt to be Canadian up until, you know, 15, 20 years ago.

00:01:07.900 Hi, everyone. Welcome back to The Critical Compass. My name's Mike, and we're here with

00:01:24.660 James, and we're very pleased to be joined by Mr. Fergus Hodgson. We met Fergus just

00:01:29.900 a couple of weeks ago. He did a speech at a Jason Levine event in Leduc. I wrote a short

00:01:37.900 biography of mr hodgson i'm going to read it now and then we're going to get fergus to uh

00:01:43.260 to correct anything i got wrong and expand from there so i have uh fergus hodgson is a modern

00:01:48.460 day renaissance man that's my words with degrees in finance economics and political science he's

00:01:53.740 an author publisher and chartered alternative investment analyst and founder of econ america's

00:01:58.780 llc a financial consultancy devoted to alternative investments stakeholder management and

00:02:04.220 and jurisdictional arbitrage. How did I do? That's all accurate. I mean, that's 100%

00:02:09.860 correct. So, I mean, except the Renaissance man, that's subjective. So I'll leave that to

00:02:15.860 people's judgment. Yeah. Well, you're certainly a fascinating man. We really like listening to you

00:02:22.020 in your speech. And you probably, I guess the thrust of your speech at that event

00:02:27.280 was how you were making the case for how Alberta should be reasonably

00:02:33.800 really the most wealthy nation per capita on the planet

00:02:37.500 and how we have currently, to your knowledge,

00:02:42.340 we have currently the most robust and active independence movement

00:02:46.100 in the world right now.

00:02:47.920 Correct.

00:02:48.720 I'd love for you to expand on that, and we'll take it from there.

00:02:52.720 yeah so it i mean look i was so happy to meet you guys in leduc and just near edmonton and

00:03:01.460 it was such an honor to be part of that you could just feel i mean just the great best people were

00:03:07.120 there a lovely sentiment and a great deal of optimism you know hope for what can come now

00:03:14.440 so the the question of different independence or secession movements around the world

00:03:21.520 This has been maybe a topic of interest to me for, I mean, as long as I can remember,

00:03:27.360 because I even remember back when I was an undergraduate in the United States,

00:03:31.420 and I thought, we're stuck.

00:03:33.840 I was in Boston, and I thought, I said to a law professor, can't we just secede from this?

00:03:39.880 Can't we just get out of this really dysfunctional relationship?

00:03:42.340 and when i when i went to canada to look for work in 2008 i learned about certain aspects that many

00:03:52.520 canadians aren't even aware of if you go to the east they don't they don't even know what

00:03:55.840 equalization is for example and i just realized that canada was maybe let's say structurally even

00:04:03.220 worse in terms of design than the united states and so that was so i've been a pro-independence

00:04:09.080 for almost 20 years okay and i've focused on secession movements in many many places

00:04:17.320 right near where i live in colorado one of the counties uh just next to me weld county

00:04:24.280 has sought to secede and join wyoming because colorado is becoming this very costly and let's

00:04:31.560 say overtaxed uh part of the country like california and whereas wyoming is in contrast

00:04:36.680 the least taxed but it just is so difficult to overcome the institutional barriers because

00:04:43.160 power brokers of course are incredibly resistant to this and my personal view is that

00:04:50.760 when secession can succeed it is it's incredibly uh successful or incredibly uh positive and the

00:04:58.760 most notable would be after the end of the soviet union when so many new countries came

00:05:03.560 and became uh wealthy and successful estonia georgia latvia what have you and some countries

00:05:10.360 like moldova are still trying to get out of that to some degree but it's a really tough road and

00:05:18.040 as we enter let's say more bureaucratized world you've got more it's almost like the

00:05:24.280 the arms race that we witness in university administrations they just so many rent seekers

00:05:29.880 get in there and they fight change because they're getting an easy ride off the process

00:05:35.340 and they don't want accountability or change because they will lose out.

00:05:39.940 They'll have to get a real job.

00:05:41.700 So, yeah, I mentioned in Leduc that I'm a big fan of Ireland leaving the European Union,

00:05:47.120 of Texas leaving the United States, and of Cortez, a part of Honduras leaving and becoming

00:05:52.940 a new country like Panama.

00:05:54.560 And in all three cases, to me, it's just a very no-brainer.

00:05:57.880 it's it would be a wonderful uh win but i mentioned that there just isn't huge support for

00:06:05.880 it it's like we have this what i call the status quo bias and i think it's it's an untapped

00:06:12.440 opportunity and the fact is that i don't know you know like i said i've been following these things

00:06:17.480 for years and i actually think this can happen in alberta that all the momentum is on the independent

00:06:23.320 independent side right if we were to go back 20 years there would be maybe single digit support

00:06:30.280 for this and now there's maybe 40 percent even higher which suggests the trajectory is incredibly

00:06:35.960 positive and so i don't know of any even in the united states i think south carolina has the most

00:06:42.280 support for independence from the united states and even there it's maybe 25 maybe 20 it's it's

00:06:47.640 it's just people are so accustomed to what they know yeah

00:06:53.320 Yeah. And I guess Canada is unique in one way. We have all, like considering our downsides, we do have a established legal pathway for succession outlined by the Supreme Court where other countries don't even recognize that to the point. So there's an additional hurdle. So the benefit of the Supreme Court recognizing that a clear democratic will has to be respected.

00:07:19.620 Yeah.

00:07:20.180 And then everything else unfolds from there.

00:07:22.760 yeah it is and that's what i've told people who are the 51st staters that that really is an

00:07:28.600 advantage in canada that it's not universal but there's strong agreement among many many people

00:07:35.020 and even in the legal profession that secession is a lawful process in canada whereas there's

00:07:41.520 there's very little support for that in the united states or under assumption there and

00:07:46.800 south carolina i mentioned because south carolina was the first state to secede prior to the war

00:07:51.740 between the states or civil war if you want to call it that yeah yeah it's interesting because

00:07:57.880 i remember as a you know a kid growing up in the 90s in canada i remember the you know the the

00:08:03.120 second uh quebec independence referendum i think it was or yeah i think it was 95 the first one

00:08:08.100 was 80 and yeah 95 and i remember kind of the general sentiment in alberta at that time being

00:08:13.700 i mean i was young but i kind of remember it being like oh those silly quebecers like well 1.00

00:08:18.700 they don't know what they're doing. Like they're, they're never going to be France. Like it's just 1.00

00:08:21.580 sort of a, but this is like looking back on it now, uh, the rest of the country actually didn't

00:08:28.360 react that way. They actually, like, there was a lot of kid gloves and there was a lot of coddling

00:08:32.780 and there was a lot of, you know, please don't leave. You know, uh, my, my Canada includes Quebec

00:08:37.680 and like, there was a lot of this sort of, um, gentle treatment to, to try and, uh, you know,

00:08:43.340 keep them in the union. And it feels like it's, it's the exact opposite with the Alberta independence

00:08:47.960 movement now like it feels like almost every day there's some new you know uh epithet thrown at us 0.99

00:08:54.560 about you know why we're stupid rednecks that uh not only can't we do this but you know we're 0.98

00:08:59.840 we're actually idiots for wanting to even see this happen so what i don't know if you have any 0.99

00:09:04.080 thoughts on why why that difference might be i do mike but to be frank i would really like to hear 0.92

00:09:09.740 your own perspective on that i did not live through that time i have i have in my mind a

00:09:15.040 clear explanation, but I don't want to jinx it or, you know, give the answer. I'm curious to

00:09:20.520 hear your perspective. Well, I mean, I guess if I had to make a guess, it would probably be because

00:09:26.180 I don't think it's organic primarily. I think the conversation has to be directed that way by

00:09:32.820 government-influenced media interests because Alberta just frankly is the primary breadwinner

00:09:41.800 for the country. So it would be catastrophic for the Canadian dollar would be catastrophic for the

00:09:46.260 rest, for the, for the Eastern portion of the country. I think in a way that the, the loss

00:09:52.380 of Quebec was more seen as a, um, you know, coming out of the Pierre Trudeau era of the

00:09:59.000 eighties, I think it would have been seen more as a cultural loss than a, than an economic loss.

00:10:04.140 Uh, and I don't think the rest of the country sees us as a, as a cultural bastion at all. So

00:10:09.720 maybe that would be my my general idea yeah it would be a a knock to canada's pride or ottawa's

00:10:17.300 pride to lose quebec but my my personal view and i've i've written about this

00:10:23.200 i've got an article you know the difference between sovereigntists and loyalists and what

00:10:30.580 really at the at the end of the day why are people loyal to ottawa and it seems clear to me

00:10:39.160 that the loyalists believe in redistribution right this equality mission or so-called equity

00:10:46.320 and they have a hostility towards western civilization so they want to engage in social

00:10:52.800 engineering and it just is the case that the quebec independence movement has been led by

00:11:01.840 the cultural elites the media academics artists whereas that is the flip side in alberta

00:11:10.800 so the alberta movement is it a direct it comes into direct conflict with those let's say just

00:11:19.520 fundamental values of auto of re-engineering western civilization and taking from the earners

00:11:27.220 and giving to the less less earning and so that's at the end of the day if if someone is just has

00:11:36.160 let's say hates the patriarchy and hates capitalism and hates christianity well you're gonna have a

00:11:43.220 hard time persuading that person to support Alberta independence yeah I guess there's an

00:11:50.660 another factor though like with Quebec if they're just if most of their talking point with separation

00:11:58.220 is we want to preserve our French heritage and language um there there's still kind of an outlet

00:12:06.160 for that to exist within Canada and that's what they got they got stronger language laws and

00:12:10.800 they've established

00:12:12.520 themselves somewhat

00:12:14.480 within Canada to a point that

00:12:16.660 they were appeased enough to

00:12:18.460 coexist. With Alberta

00:12:20.520 independence, it's almost like

00:12:22.680 we're holding up a mirror to the system

00:12:24.820 and you

00:12:26.320 have, you're forced to

00:12:28.680 look

00:12:30.360 inward at the

00:12:32.720 nature of confederation, the nature of

00:12:34.560 redistribution, the nature of

00:12:36.160 the structural imbalances

00:12:38.040 in a way that wasn't

00:12:40.800 really it wasn't unpacked in the same depth uh when quebec was advocating for its own independence

00:12:49.520 i don't think the same grievances i don't think the same arguments about the imbalances of the

00:12:53.600 system were made because they they benefited from that a little bit so it was more it seemed tied to

00:13:02.000 more of the cultural aspect because they weren't even a in a fully sufficient place to leave

00:13:07.760 anyways so with alberta it's a serious threat because alberta has the headroom economically

00:13:14.980 to become independent and still have money left over that's a completely different situation

00:13:21.140 yeah so progressives or socialists leftists tend to see the world as this battle between

00:13:29.320 the oppressed and the oppressors and Quebecers and I'm trying to I'm going to be as gentle as I

00:13:38.240 can here with them they obviously play into that victim mentality even their license plates on their

00:13:47.540 cars the je me souviens bit is weird to me the way it says we will remember you know

00:13:54.440 And imagine if, you know, it's just a strange thing

00:13:59.440 that they remember past grievances and feel like victims,

00:14:02.740 whether they are or not, that's another story, okay?

00:14:06.140 But Albertans, they just don't fit into that.

00:14:09.280 They actually see themselves as winners.

00:14:11.540 They don't see themselves as victims so much.

00:14:13.600 So it just, it throws off this rhetoric.

00:14:16.840 And even if they were to claim to be victims,

00:14:19.040 they can be victims of redistribution,

00:14:21.360 But it's just not like they're not like they don't want to be victims.

00:14:27.020 It's not their push.

00:14:29.060 And so it just doesn't like they're not going to fit into this oppressive versus oppressed narrative because they're capitalists, you know, white males or whatever you want to call them.

00:14:40.660 And it just doesn't fit the progressive narrative.

00:14:44.940 You know, so there's not going to be sympathy for them.

00:14:46.840 so i and my personal view is that i would love to see quebec be independent and i think that

00:14:55.020 would be really healthy for them but i agree with you that they've been able to get a lot of what

00:14:59.100 they wanted already within canada since their grievances were more easily addressed alberta's

00:15:05.720 grievances cannot be addressed there it's just impossible to be addressed within confederation

00:15:10.140 yeah yeah and it's you know we've we've kind of joked on the show before about how you know we

00:15:17.620 would be happy if at the end of all this you know if if alberta got 10 of the consideration that

00:15:23.000 quebec does you know in confederation but um obviously that's that's not going to be enough

00:15:28.720 anymore but um i i think that there is a i don't know there's sort of a psychological aspect at

00:15:37.120 play to where you have people who, I feel like nowadays, maybe this is more of a psychology

00:15:42.380 question than anything in any of our expertises, but there does seem to be a psychological

00:15:48.320 component where people nowadays have like a sort of reflexive opposition to what they

00:15:56.660 see as like a boisterous, like a Trumpian, you know, sort of, I'm not sure really of

00:16:04.580 the of the term i'm looking for but somebody who's who who knows they're you know a person very

00:16:09.960 confident in the movement we can support ourselves we have the money to do this we they get people

00:16:15.320 get their their backs up a little bit when they when they hear this i think the i think the uh 0.62

00:16:20.040 the kiwis and the aussies call this a tall poppy syndrome right you know they don't people yeah 0.98

00:16:25.880 people don't want to feel like they're in any way making themselves or or don't want to be 0.99

00:16:31.280 associated with other people who they get this feeling from putting themselves above others

00:16:36.040 do you sort of understand what i'm saying do you get that as well i do mike yeah and this is where

00:16:40.980 you would have a stronger feel for canadian society than i would right but it absolutely

00:16:49.380 is the case that in australia and new zealand we do have the tall poppy syndrome and i suspect it

00:16:54.640 is basically the same in Canada, where it's just not socially acceptable to show pride in oneself

00:17:03.220 or to think, you know, to be, think as the Trump would say, I'm the greatest or whatever. It's just,

00:17:08.760 it's just counter to a very egalitarian streak. And maybe that is, you know, a hangover from

00:17:16.580 the British empire or the feudal system, who knows where it comes from. That's a complicated

00:17:22.220 question but it exists and yes the pompousness maybe of some americans really rubs the anglosphere

00:17:33.900 people the wrong way yeah and so that's why this trump derangement syndrome has become so pernicious

00:17:39.900 or prevalent in in these countries in canada australia new zealand and it has gone beyond

00:17:46.220 rationality just it's it's just like this very guttural impulse this disgust towards that that's

00:17:51.900 right and i think it's unproductive or it's a wasted it's it's wasted energy but it absolutely

00:17:57.580 is in the um it's in in the arena and i personally try to avoid aligning myself too closely with any

00:18:05.900 politician because he will always let you down basically people are human and but and it's the

00:18:13.900 it's the same with with Donald Trump I don't want to align myself with him and I don't

00:18:18.020 think the independence movement should even though of course there are plenty of people

00:18:21.660 within it who have an affection towards him yeah yeah yeah it's a it's a hard thing to

00:18:28.160 navigate because the associations are there um even there's that residual baggage of the

00:18:35.000 51st state yeah yeah like that that rhetoric pops up time and time again even though we

00:18:43.360 could say well the support isn't there from the actual independent supporters we don't want to

00:18:47.360 trade a neglectful government 3 000 kilometers away in ottawa with another one 3 000 kilometers

00:18:55.200 away in washington yeah so like we want to run our own ship but that's not enough because these

00:19:01.440 arguments will pop up obviously we don't want to feed we don't want to give them ammo we don't

00:19:07.280 want to trigger any tds um from people so i avoid any like if if there's a rally and somebody has

00:19:16.800 an american flag i don't film it if i'm like trying to capture footage and stuff like it's

00:19:21.760 not helping it's a terrible idea and it is a minority of like it but all it takes one and

00:19:27.200 then you have cbc and ctv news just they always now use that that's their favorite shot now is

00:19:35.760 the combined american alberta flag um so it's a it's a difficult thing to to navigate but um yeah

00:19:44.480 it's an uphill battle when they want to squash the movement yeah someone i admire and i i brought

00:19:51.920 his book up to show people is cory morgan right and the book is the sovereignty's handbook right

00:19:58.160 and i just strongly recommend people read this and he put out a video like i listened to almost

00:20:05.520 all his uh commentaries or presentations on this topic and he just said if you want to know the

00:20:11.040 weaknesses of the independence movement look at where the critics are going and of course they

00:20:16.800 want to demonize us and call us all sorts of names all the pejoratives we know them

00:20:22.400 and they also want to call unfortunately in canada being american as a pejorative

00:20:27.680 it's a many people so they want to call it some kind of american psyop or movement or whatever

00:20:32.720 you want to call yeah but the truth is that it's really just not an issue down here no one even

00:20:38.640 knows where alberta is and it's not a high priority the united states is so busy dealing with so many

00:20:43.920 other projects you might say whether it's venezuela or iran or ukraine or who knows what it's just

00:20:49.280 a litany of challenges that alberta is not a high priority at all but because many albertans and

00:20:57.040 canadians more broadly speaking are fearful of the united states or have a negative knee-jerk

00:21:02.560 reaction i think you're right it's it's it's something that that the regime media will continue

00:21:08.400 to play up even though we all know that it's a small minority of the people who support independence

00:21:13.920 now it is a minority and maybe even a vocal minority uh so there will be some people who

00:21:19.840 will resist uh keeping that keeping a lid on that i think it's a very bad idea joining the united

00:21:26.400 States, but, and I think, unfortunately, people who live outside the United States can have

00:21:34.640 a more positive or nostalgic view of the country, and they'll say, oh, the United States is

00:21:42.360 a republic with separation of powers and limited government, and I just, I think people need

00:21:48.260 to be a bit more realistic or show a bit more awareness in that regard, because the United

00:21:54.440 States has many of the same problems as Canada. And if anyone actually reads the U.S. Constitution

00:22:00.540 or Declaration of Independence, you will see that the federal government is basically the

00:22:05.680 anti-American government, not the American government. And I just, I think it would be a

00:22:13.600 terrible mistake. I do want and hope that the U.S. federal government will support and recognize

00:22:22.180 Alberta independence, but permit Alberta and be supportive of Alberta being its own nation,

00:22:28.540 much like Panama is in Central America. Yeah. You know, we we hear that sort of

00:22:37.160 doom sort of, you know, complaint all the time of like, well, if Alberta were to separate the US

00:22:44.060 would just, you know, Trump would invade and, you know, swallow us up and we would be for it. And

00:22:50.040 And it's like the fact is if the U.S. wanted to do that now, they could do it for the entire country.

00:22:56.040 I mean, we are our entire national budget.

00:22:58.280 What's stopping them right now?

00:22:59.380 Nothing.

00:22:59.960 Yeah, exactly.

00:23:01.040 90% of our trade in Alberta is north-south anyway to begin with.

00:23:04.620 So there's no economic argument.

00:23:06.720 Our national GDP is like it's pretty close to what the U.S.'s military budget is.

00:23:14.320 So it's like not even it's not a contest.

00:23:16.520 They can do whatever they want.

00:23:17.600 the fact that they don't you know it's not a it's not a political win for them to do that so

00:23:21.500 i keep thinking about in these conversations are you familiar with that that mad men meme where

00:23:28.100 it's like the elevator like the the one marketing guy character and john ham in the elevator and

00:23:34.440 the one little guy says like i feel sorry for you and then john ham's character says i don't think

00:23:39.260 about you at all that's sort of what i feel like the relationship between canada and the u.s is

00:23:43.900 right now it really is and you might even say it's a personality flaw of americans that they just

00:23:50.460 have so little interest about it regarding canada uh that they just see themselves as the as the

00:23:56.940 topic and in many ways the media here don't really care about about independence unless it has

00:24:02.380 statehood attached to it or unless trump is part of the story so it's just and it's something that

00:24:09.180 i've wrestled with for the years that i've lived here the way that americans are incredibly uh

00:24:15.900 focused on their own country and not the rest of the world it's it's because i'm from a country of

00:24:20.460 just five million people new zealand so we don't have that perspective but then of course we have

00:24:27.020 not led the world in so many regards so we can't really claim that status americans would you know

00:24:32.460 in terms of the popular culture have been so dominant in so many ways that in some ways maybe

00:24:37.820 they've earned a little bit of that and even if you think about let's say films coming out of

00:24:43.740 canada the most prominent film to come out of canada was my big fat greek wedding which is

00:24:49.180 great like i enjoyed that movie but the comparison between hollywood and canadian let's say the the

00:24:55.500 cultural or um arts is just i mean there's no comparison basically so yeah i mean i'm trying

00:25:03.820 trying to think how to round that off in terms of the whole invasion idea i think it is ridiculous

00:25:09.320 and there's just no appetite in the united states to do that i mean they have a hard enough appetite 0.96

00:25:15.800 you know hard enough um time going after crazy islamic dictatorships or whatever it may be

00:25:22.020 let alone attacking a bosom buddy ally that is has open trade i mean it would just be it would

00:25:27.560 make no sense at all so i don't see that i just see it as a non-starter it's one of these

00:25:32.640 boogeymen that critics are going to throw out there because they have no real good arguments.

00:25:37.940 That's the real problem. And we're seeing this very clearly now in these open discussions that

00:25:44.580 rather than engage in any kind of healthy debate, it's largely just calling people treasonous or

00:25:51.680 traitors or disloyal or whatever it may be. It's a lot of hyperbole and also just basically saying

00:25:59.360 you cannot do it. There's very little actual discussion because the case for Alberta being

00:26:04.920 in Canada is so weak that they don't have much leg to stand on. And that's why I think

00:26:10.960 the next six months are going to be a great success for the independence movement so long

00:26:17.140 as we can stay organized and on task. Because I just think the numbers, the argument, it's

00:26:24.900 so strong. And I am concerned, I mean, you might have seen this, I'm sure you have, about

00:26:32.200 the allegation that the Prime Minister wants to use the Emergencies Act or the War Powers

00:26:38.640 Act, as it was called, against Alberta. And that suggests to you that they really have

00:26:42.920 no argument and they're very afraid. They realize that exactly what we think, that this

00:26:47.640 will grow and there's a strong likelihood of this referendum succeeding.

00:26:51.040 Hmm. Yeah. Sorry. Sorry. Just to piggyback. Sorry, James, I'm going to double up here. And then you, you ask a real long question after, uh, just your point about, uh, uh, being called traitors and the word treasonous and things like this. It's funny because, you know, we've interviewed so many people involved in this movement or, or, or just supporters of it.

00:27:12.020 And almost without exception, Fergus, the, the refrain that we hear from people really that actually differ quite significantly on other political issues, but if they're in favor of Alberta independence, the thing they keep repeating and, and emphasizing is that actually they view Alberta independence as a return to what they knew of what Canada was, what it felt to be Canadian up until, you know, 15, 20 years ago.

00:27:38.920 yeah i mean i agree with that entirely that the in many ways the alberta independence movement

00:27:45.800 is a restoration of the best of canada and some americans would even say that applies to their

00:27:52.660 country too that they were preserving the best of the british empire at that time and trying to

00:27:58.300 impede let's say the tyranny of the king at that time and so the albertans are trying to preserve

00:28:03.600 the best of Canada against the tyranny of Ottawa and I mean it the problem is that Canada has just

00:28:11.000 changed as you say so much in the last generation in the last 30 odd years that it's I wouldn't say

00:28:17.340 it's unrecognizable but culturally that let's say the Canada brand is nothing like what it was when

00:28:24.120 my mother was growing up right back in the 60s and 70s and at that time you had people from Europe

00:28:31.140 going to Canada for much better prospects, but how much does that even happen anymore?

00:28:35.780 It's almost not a thing. And so I just think that that pioneer Canada

00:28:44.300 is what Alberta independence is all about. So that's why in my own writing, my own discussions,

00:28:52.420 I try to make be clear that the enemy is Ottawa. It is not Canada. And you can be proud of,

00:29:00.600 you know canada's history even if you realize that the the confederation has become toxic at this

00:29:05.480 point yeah and it just in terms of the branding too this is another reason why i think this is

00:29:11.080 going to win because even if we go beyond the numbers of the the cpp or the debts or

00:29:17.240 just gdp per capita or whatever it may be the branding of ottawa is atrocious they're basically

00:29:24.680 the soy soy boy wimpy capital of the world at this point and obviously uh trudeau led the charge in

00:29:31.960 this regard whereas alberta is something to be proud of you are real frontier hard-working pioneer 0.56

00:29:38.760 men and who wants to be part of this weak uh you know spineless city that's just a predator or a

00:29:47.400 parasite versus a proud man who wants to be his own king basically and so i think that is the

00:29:55.560 alberta brand is great i mean it's something that many people relate to want to be a part of

00:30:00.280 are attracted to and i know that one of my friends from saskatchewan who lives in the united states

00:30:06.440 he and i of course would would be the first ones to want to live in a free alberta right right now

00:30:11.320 i can't i don't want to be associated with ottawa but it's taxes and many other policies

00:30:15.320 and so it's hard for me to go back to canada these days but of course a free alberta would

00:30:20.700 be attractive to many many people like me yeah and you would naturally see a influx of highly

00:30:28.340 skilled talented people who want who who value freedom and who value everything that alberta

00:30:35.580 stands for and if five million is enough for new zealand to be its own country then five million

00:30:41.300 enough for alberta with with alberta's land mass and gdp like you still see this argument pop up

00:30:49.060 that people said like well alberta doesn't have the population to be its own country and like well

00:30:53.700 who says these things it's so ridiculous all kinds of people yeah this is they these arguments have

00:30:59.860 to be like sometimes you still have to address them in the comments or the random people who will

00:31:06.180 still say that it's partially because there's a lot of people who haven't thought deeply about

00:31:11.460 this so they just feel that canada is immutable that a country cannot be changed people should

00:31:19.140 not have a right for self-determination and they feel like a province leaving is destroying a

00:31:24.180 country that it only works with every single province there and they kind of have a point

00:31:30.980 that like canada is dependent on alberta but if the rest of canada is dependent on alberta

00:31:39.940 it would be in the best interest for every other province to grow and adapt the way that they

00:31:49.220 operate to be more self-sufficient if they are currently relying on an oil money that they hate

00:31:56.500 that they're actively suppressing to pay for all their services anyways that's not a that's not a

00:32:02.580 sustainable and or functioning or a healthy relationship right now yeah james i mean you're

00:32:09.140 touching on a real um thorny point here people have an emotional connection to canada and if they

00:32:20.420 uh consuming the cbc they have an emotional connection to ottawa and they will basically

00:32:25.700 put the cart before the horse they will re you know reverse engineer arguments to fit with

00:32:32.180 those emotions so of course we know that canada was not always in its current structure newfoundland

00:32:38.740 only joined just over 50 years ago or 60 years ago so does that mean was that wrong did we violate

00:32:45.620 canada's unity or structure or what or whatever at that time and we also know that many parts of

00:32:52.580 canada did not become part of the country voluntarily right so it it's it's a very con

00:33:00.660 there's not a lot of it's it's a foundation of sand this argument that the the current uh

00:33:06.260 structure of canada is just forever why who knows but that is a very weak argument and it in my view

00:33:14.580 it is purely trotted out by people who have an emotional connection to ottawa or canada

00:33:21.300 and are consuming too much of the raging media and are reaching to try to find something to

00:33:27.300 back up their case now it is true that if when alberta leaves the future of canada is unclear

00:33:40.020 and uh probably it is the case that the canada that we know today will go through a restructuring

00:33:47.860 and perhaps other provinces will leave some will probably try to join the united states who knows

00:33:52.420 and but i just see that as a great thing you know this is where maybe because i did not grow up in

00:33:58.420 canada i have more of a nostalgia for alberta where i went so often with my mother and family

00:34:03.860 than i do for the rest of canada and also because when i went to canada looking for work i had a

00:34:09.380 really hard time and i worked mostly in nova scotia and i was one of these people who really

00:34:15.940 felt the brunt of a weak economy and lack of opportunity and as soon as i got to the united

00:34:21.140 states i had great success and and you start to think is the problem me or is the problem

00:34:26.180 canada the economy there and you realize that it is the economy that it's not you basically you

00:34:31.220 you know? Yeah. Yeah. And I think you have an advantage as well of being, um, being able to

00:34:36.900 see it a little bit more objectively from, uh, I mean, you're, you're a money guy, you're a

00:34:40.340 numbers guy, right? Um, I'm curious what you think, like you, we will of course direct people

00:34:45.620 to your, to your speech in Leduc the other week, but I'm curious the, on the other side of the

00:34:51.000 argument, what would be your prediction for? And his book. Yeah, sure. And his book. Yes,

00:34:56.880 That's right. Let's maybe explore what you think the, what will be the immediate effects

00:35:04.520 financially that you predict if Alberta separates? Now, of course, I know this is a process and it

00:35:10.520 won't happen overnight, but what do you suspect will be the greatest economic impacts and maybe

00:35:16.880 the response of an Alberta-less Canada? Well, many things. My personal sense is that once

00:35:25.960 this is achieved the gains will be so enormous people wonder why were we ever why did why was

00:35:33.360 this even a question to begin with right and the big difference right now but between even just

00:35:39.540 being in the united states versus being in canada is the tax burden so the most notable change will

00:35:45.660 be a massive reduction in taxation which is i mean huge for many of us i mean it's it's a real weight

00:35:51.460 off your back. So in life, we typically have some relatively fixed expenses, right? Our utilities,

00:35:59.640 accommodation, basic foods, maybe some vocational training, what have you, things we just have,

00:36:05.300 we need to get by. And we also have our tax burden. And then whatever's left after these

00:36:10.780 things is more our discretionary income. And the big challenge is that in Canada, much like back

00:36:15.760 in New Zealand, there's just very little of that left. Canadians have very little room to breathe. 0.84

00:36:20.820 And one of the first chapters, I think it's the second chapter, I don't remember right now, in the book is bankruptcies or insolvencies tell the tale.

00:36:31.360 This predates the COVID era.

00:36:34.860 There's just a really unsavory or unhealthy trend in Canada towards financial insolvency.

00:36:42.020 so the biggest turnaround i would hope to see would be a reversal of that that people have some

00:36:49.140 room to breathe discretionary income to start rebuilding their lives and they wouldn't have

00:36:53.920 to go into debt or or declare bankruptcy so frequently so yeah like i said the first thing

00:36:59.400 would be a lower tax burden and then a higher level of discretionary income leading to fewer

00:37:05.660 bankruptcies. And again, I just, I just think that once this happens, it'll be such a no-brainer

00:37:14.040 that everyone just said, well, this is so much better. You know, we can see why you, you might

00:37:17.780 have all seen this, this post on X from an American economist about how for every Canadian

00:37:23.720 living in the United States, there's something like 59 of them for every one American living in

00:37:28.460 Canada. And even where I live in Fort Collins, I know a handful of Canadians just in my local

00:37:32.980 running club ones from medicine hat and they don't they're not necessarily ideological migrants

00:37:39.060 they've just moved for better job prospects a better quality of life and they don't they don't

00:37:43.300 think about it in terms of ideology they just think where can i live better and it happens to

00:37:46.740 be here in colorado which is not even a low tax or low cost state in the united states years ago

00:37:52.020 mark milkey who wrote the book tax me i'm canadian he noted that even the high tax states in the

00:37:58.980 in the United States like Massachusetts are basically a breath of fresh air versus Atlanta,

00:38:03.460 Canada versus their peer provinces across the border. So that's, to me, that's the big problem

00:38:09.020 that the Canadian, for many reasons, Canada has developed an enormous tax burden. And it's not

00:38:17.960 quite 10% more out of the GDP, but so let's say, I think in the US, it's maybe 35, 36% of the

00:38:25.740 economy is government spending, but in Canada, 44%. So about 8% more. And that's a huge portion

00:38:32.360 of the economy that is just going to waste and bureaucracy, basically. I think also there would

00:38:38.960 be key changes. So there would be a decline in inflation because right now, structurally,

00:38:45.240 Canada is basically deliberately creating inflation with supply management. If you can somehow break

00:38:50.440 that, just these common necessities will be more affordable. Also, you'll be able to have a more

00:38:55.500 favorable trade agreement with the united states which would just flush flush the uh or flood the

00:38:59.820 country with more affordable products so i mean i'm trying to think the challenge is like you

00:39:06.460 say there is some uncertainty over the transition period but i quieten that by by saying that both

00:39:13.100 the united kingdom and new zealand do not have a written constitution what makes them successful or

00:39:20.460 what what what what what has given them success has been their traditions and the people there

00:39:25.580 the constituents and that is what will continue with alberto whatever the words are on the

00:39:29.500 constitution that the constituents there are the ones who will make alberto a success

00:39:35.420 yeah there's a part of part of that is unpacking with people through metrics like how canada is

00:39:44.300 doing right now and there's some weird games people play with some of the numbers um and it

00:39:51.260 depends if you're measuring like gdp per capita versus debt like household debt per gdp versus

00:39:59.820 still look at like the loss of investment let it be on the personal side then yeah others will say

00:40:04.860 that well foreign investment increased and they're all proud of this number and then you look at the

00:40:10.620 actual numbers and most of the foreign investment went up to buy failing canadian companies and

00:40:17.180 they're buying them for cheap so they are bragging about something which is describing the like slow

00:40:25.180 like collapse of canada um so there are a lot of ways that people will spin this to

00:40:32.940 argue that canada is a there's like well we have the financial institutions we've got like confidence

00:40:39.500 and our legal system and we have this long standing history and we're respected on the

00:40:45.500 international stage and all of those are debatable right now um yeah so it's it's

00:40:52.940 depends who you're arguing with yeah so my personal view is that the persecution of the

00:41:01.260 the trucker convoy especially the freezing of the bank accounts did just incalculable damage to

00:41:09.220 canada's reputation the veneer of canada as this place of law and order and decorum was just crushed 0.99

00:41:19.380 forever because we all know anyone can see especially foreigners who just get social media

00:41:27.560 or whatever, can see that these were just harmless people protesting.

00:41:34.440 They were not organized criminals.

00:41:36.960 And so when you freeze their bank accounts and persecute them,

00:41:40.300 it really was a terrible look.

00:41:42.460 So I don't think Canada or Ottawa will ever recover from that,

00:41:46.780 that Americans have such a lower view or dim view of Canada since that time

00:41:52.980 because that really captured the attention down here.

00:41:55.920 now just there is there are i mean not everything is bad in canada of course uh the mining sector

00:42:03.160 of canada is one of the leading lights that i don't know if you guys know this but in vancouver

00:42:08.540 there's basically the the hub of all the the headquarters capital of mining from around the

00:42:15.400 world that most of the mining companies have their headquarters in vancouver however that is

00:42:22.600 precarious it is not guaranteed forever and mining companies are very let's say savvy and make

00:42:27.740 calculated decisions and that particular success story for canada could soon be lost that places

00:42:36.900 like nevada are challenging uh let's say the jurisdictional competitiveness of canadian

00:42:43.360 provinces so i think if alberta were to leave that would really do uh it would undermine even

00:42:50.240 further Canada's reputation as a mining safe haven, at least for setting up a headquarters

00:42:55.120 and getting regulatory approval, because still the Toronto Stock Exchange and the TSV, the

00:43:04.920 Toronto Venture Exchange, are where many junior and senior mining companies list themselves.

00:43:13.240 So it's almost like you're one election away from it being a regulatory environment that

00:43:19.340 they hate yes yeah it's it wouldn't take much and we're like it could just be one environmental law

00:43:26.560 and now every single mining company is in violation of that new law and they would have

00:43:33.760 to either restructure they have to modify the way that they work and now they would go somewhere

00:43:40.420 else like it could be as simple as that yeah like because the money companies unlike other businesses

00:43:46.620 are very nimble and they respond to incentives carefully so they could move now of course there

00:43:53.420 is healthy momentum in canada canada both vancouver and to a lesser degree toronto

00:43:59.260 have many of the mining headquarters and that's become the standard path to especially for junior

00:44:05.820 mining companies but i mean they're like i said they're very agile and they will go where they

00:44:12.860 think the best or most welcoming environment is and of course the americans would welcome them

00:44:17.820 with open arms and the american regulatory framework would would evolve to incorporate them

00:44:24.220 already you know so already there are many companies that do list on u.s exchanges so it's

00:44:29.500 not like canada has a monopoly like people could make that transition without too much difficulty

00:44:34.460 it's more just tradition at this point since the 90s the money companies have been based in vancouver

00:44:39.980 Interesting. Yeah, that's been a talking point as well about how, you know, um, Alberta independence will, uh, you know, this discussion is scaring away investment and it's, uh, you know, it's, we're gonna, uh, paradoxically, uh, you know, ruin our own industry.

00:44:56.540 And it's like, I don't know, man, everywhere I look, every single thing I see and read is that companies, especially heavy industry companies in any sort of heavy industry, they absolutely eat up any opportunity to get to an environment of less government regulation, less overt, fake environmental policy.

00:45:19.820 and like i i don't see how there's any way possible that uh an independent alberta doesn't

00:45:25.000 become an absolute haven for all of these guys yeah so in some ways this brings us back to the

00:45:31.640 question of 5 million or the the population because new zealand does have 5 million now but

00:45:38.100 when i was a child in the 80s and early 90s it was just 3 million and new zealand really became

00:45:43.520 a successful country with just one or two million people and if you look at the most successful

00:45:48.340 countries right now i mean the country i really admire is lichtenstein and they have 40 000 people

00:45:53.620 okay so these micro states in many regards are the future they're the most um

00:46:00.900 innovative they they offer the most accountable government places like monaco so okay now in

00:46:09.860 terms of the let's say the regulatory environment in alberta the big concern i have and even

00:46:17.060 regime or legacy media outlets are getting on to this point is the decline of the high trust

00:46:22.700 society in canada now my other book is it is about latin america it's called the latin america red

00:46:29.900 pill and i talk about how the lack of trust in latin america is just crippling for economic

00:46:35.420 development and so basically the the biggest companies down there tend to be either enormous

00:46:40.580 cronies like petrobus this big oil company out of brazil autobrite or they tend to be family

00:46:48.420 conglomerates because families will trust each other more so than just the general public so

00:46:54.340 they really have a difficult time building stock markets and in broader public you know secondary

00:46:58.980 markets the the truth is that canada as far as i can tell is going through a free fall in public

00:47:07.380 trust right now and that's going to harm incredibly uh deeply the growth potential of the country it

00:47:15.940 already is happening right so uh the the most the countries with the most trust in the world

00:47:22.340 are the scandinavian countries finland denmark sweden norway and new zealand and canada are

00:47:30.020 are it's up there right there and maybe so their trust level is about 50 percent and the united

00:47:36.900 states is somewhat lower but so to me you can put fancy regulations you can make fancy constitutions

00:47:45.460 but what is really crucial to investment economic development business growth especially in the

00:47:52.020 let's say the the small business space where there's more innovation more real uh substantive

00:47:57.060 growth going on that will that relies on trust because a lot of these small businesses they

00:48:02.340 don't have the the the capacity to hire fancy lawyers or prepare fancy contracts or a plan for

00:48:08.180 the future that they're just going to survive surviving and they have to be able to trust those

00:48:13.060 around them and act in a more informal manner and that's where i see the real problem for canada that

00:48:20.340 uh you're having a more divided society where people just do not trust each other and i hate

00:48:26.740 to say there's more corruption in government so that infrastructure is becoming less reliable

00:48:34.180 it goes hand in hand with um so there is a difference we've talked about this before of

00:48:40.660 difference between multi-ethnic and multicultural where you can have different ethnicities

00:48:46.900 with the same fundamental beliefs and values and you have a glue that keeps them together

00:48:51.460 and unified in a way that you don't have when you have pockets of different cultures

00:48:57.780 all speaking their own language and they have a in-group preference so they're going to stay

00:49:02.980 together and that nothing fractionates a country more than getting these essentially these these

00:49:10.500 pockets these little on the bramptons or the uh the the stories of of canada and alberta's not

00:49:19.060 immune to that given enough time right to like the the amount of it in albertas it's not as critical

00:49:28.180 as some places in canada but if not for independence now it's or if not for some

00:49:36.500 provincial control over immigration and or some value first messaging about assimilation this

00:49:44.500 problem's not going to get better and so this is something i try to reflect on and communicate with

00:49:51.940 either friends and family that are they feel very nostalgic for canada yeah and but or like they

00:49:58.120 they love canada and but they can't articulate that the canada that they love is this fictional

00:50:04.480 place that doesn't really fully exist anymore what they're loving now is not actually canada

00:50:11.240 it's it's the surface level representation of it it exists in their mind it's propped up by like

00:50:18.120 anytime you see red or a canadian flag or maple syrup these things invoke that same like it's

00:50:25.420 this emotional it resonates emotionally but it doesn't relate to the practical reality of canada

00:50:33.440 And all you have to do is take one of Canada's most beloved and kind of, uh, maybe this is, feels like this is one of Canada's best brands for a while is Tim Hortons.

00:50:49.040 And how Canadian does it feel when you go and set, like you, you're not even hearing English being spoken.

00:50:56.060 And so like, not to, not to downplay any of the people just trying to get ahead and trying to make a living, but that represents the, the kind of those.

00:51:08.680 It's a perfect microcosm of the, uh, of the country.

00:51:11.320 Nothing sums it up better than just going into your beloved Tim Hortons.

00:51:16.200 Yeah.

00:51:16.740 Well, this, this is a fundamental point here.

00:51:19.400 if our buddha is distinct whether it's the values the way of life the work ethic the

00:51:29.480 um religious inclinations whatever it is you know we can debate that

00:51:34.660 it is worth protecting right you know so if if there were nothing special about it there'd be

00:51:42.180 no point behind alberta independence you're seeking albertans are seeking independence

00:51:47.480 because they really believe that Alberta has something special.

00:51:52.460 And if they're clued in,

00:51:56.940 they realize that distinctiveness is really being lost at a quick rate.

00:52:05.940 And high trust, or let's say that the community engagement

00:52:10.460 is one part of Alberta's distinctiveness,

00:52:13.720 that a sense of uh civic engagement of volunteerism whatever it may be is being lost right now and

00:52:24.080 you just you know if if Alberta is distinct then just having any random person coming in

00:52:31.540 will dilute their distinctiveness that's just a basically mathematical reality so it's it is a

00:52:38.640 It is a sensitive topic, but of course, Albertans, much like Quebecers,

00:52:43.140 they want to have some, they want to have authority over who joins this distinct community.

00:52:49.480 And again, Alberta, in my opinion, Alberta actually does have a very distinct

00:52:53.520 value system and way of life, and that merits protecting. And as I noted in Leduc,

00:53:00.400 a key element of that is respect for laissez-faire capitalism, for hard work, for

00:53:05.800 self-sufficiency whatever it may be taking care of oneself and not being dependent and that will 1.00

00:53:12.520 be lost if there's just an endless supply of foreigners who have no they don't care about 1.00

00:53:18.740 that that i know about it's just like you say you can't really blame them they just they have no 0.78

00:53:23.460 tradition of that and the challenge is that the people who really pioneered alberta they were the

00:53:30.000 toughest people around i mean they literally came across in boats and then had to go across this

00:53:35.320 very cold and inhospitable landmass and you are enjoying the benefits of their hard work

00:53:44.520 a century ago and so even my my grandfather he had never driven a car before when he got to

00:53:51.900 in that case he was up in northern british columbia but he basically um crashed a car

00:53:57.700 three times he was on this remote indian reserve he went through incredible difficulty to be part

00:54:04.120 let's say uh growing western canada and he soon moved to uh settle in calgary and that like you

00:54:12.120 said that distinctive pioneer spirit toughness resilience what you want to call it will be

00:54:17.560 diluted away or inflated away uh if immigration is is not i don't know addressed correctly yeah

00:54:27.800 yeah that's the um sorry go ahead please no no just unfortunately

00:54:34.120 the obviously ottawa has a much different preference when it comes to immigration

00:54:39.800 and i think they find it easier to dominate the canadian provinces when there is a great

00:54:46.600 deal of infighting or confusion across the country and not a coherent or cohesive uh

00:54:53.240 opposition to their rule and that's exactly what alberta is putting up right now that they

00:54:58.120 are proud of their distinctiveness and they there's at least still some uh unity or coherence

00:55:04.360 there some community to fight back and resist ottawa's expansion yeah there are lots of

00:55:11.640 interesting um corporate level studies that have been done you're probably familiar with them about

00:55:16.440 how you um uh you you tend to um lessen the possibility lessen the likelihood of of uh

00:55:25.080 uh, offices trying to unionize when you have a diverse mix of, uh, race and genders.

00:55:32.240 Yeah.

00:55:32.760 Yeah.

00:55:33.080 There's Amazon did a famously commissioned a study about that.

00:55:36.680 Um, yeah.

00:55:37.920 Yeah.

00:55:38.520 The, the, the warehouses that were the most, uh, ethnically and rate, like racially diverse 0.97

00:55:43.500 were the least likely to attempt to unionize cause they were, they were too much. 0.99

00:55:47.740 They couldn't get together.

00:55:48.860 You can't form a cohesive.

00:55:49.620 Yeah, that's right.

00:55:50.320 Yeah.

00:55:50.600 Oh, I wasn't aware of that one.

00:55:52.540 Necessarily even.

00:55:53.560 Yeah.

00:55:53.720 It's, it's a, it's fascinating actually. So yeah, there probably are broader, uh, you know,

00:55:58.080 national implications to that psychology, but yeah, I'm curious what you think, you know,

00:56:03.060 about the, the, the immigration issue is, is a, you're right that it's a sensitive one.

00:56:08.440 Uh, and people tend to get, um, you know, get pretty, uh, emotional about it. I'm curious what

00:56:14.800 you, what you might say, you know, this is a broader question, but to the, to the, maybe the,

00:56:20.040 the more liberal minded person or, or even a, you know, a very, uh, outward,

00:56:24.620 you know, very obviously a leftist person who sees the Alberta independence

00:56:28.140 movement as something fundamentally racist or something fundamentally, um,

00:56:33.660 you know, you know, of, of which there are lots, you know, what would your,

00:56:38.360 what might your response be? Cause, cause I, I find like,

00:56:40.800 I find with these people in our personal lives, James and I,

00:56:43.900 they're not really thinking about these issues as thoughtfully as,

00:56:47.900 as we might, because we're in it so deep, you know,

00:56:50.040 We don't think about the economic implications.

00:56:52.200 They don't think about the history of the – they don't know about Buffalo province.

00:56:57.980 Like they don't know about any of this.

00:56:59.360 So they're approaching it from a very surface level emotional kind of gut reaction like you were mentioning earlier.

00:57:04.180 What might you say to that type of person to make the case for why this makes sense even for them?

00:57:11.860 Yeah.

00:57:12.620 So, I mean, great question, Mike.

00:57:16.040 I mean, we could talk to a whole new episode on that topic.

00:57:19.500 But first, anyone who has traveled the world, I've lived in Guatemala, Argentina, Ireland, Canada, the United States, New Zealand, all over the place, Paraguay, Ecuador.

00:57:32.260 Okay. 0.98

00:57:35.160 In my opinion, the most meritocratic and least ethnocentric part of the world is the Anglosphere. 0.78

00:57:45.120 anywhere else you go people are much more openly loyal to their ethnic group than the anglo-saxons

00:57:54.520 or the anglo-celtic people are the ones who founded alberta

00:57:58.020 so that's that's to me fundamentally anyone who makes these claims is unfortunately being

00:58:07.260 propagandized and misled by regime media who have a chip on their shoulder towards

00:58:12.560 the anglosphere or the the western world because we are the most in favor of meritocracy as opposed

00:58:19.120 to nepotism and tribal loyalties second if these anglosphere countries or you know canada is one

00:58:29.520 of these countries of course are so discriminatory and harsh why does everyone want to come to our

00:58:35.360 countries. Yeah, it's a big one. It is ridiculous. So the these arguments are just so shallow

00:58:44.900 and weak. I don't know how you can take them seriously. Alberta. Yes, Albertans will prefer

00:58:51.300 people who side with civil liberties with freedom with meritocracy, right? And so they

00:58:59.520 They will, yes, they will favor people who contribute to the community who have low crime,

00:59:05.700 what have you.

00:59:07.600 But Alberta is not an ethno state.

00:59:11.260 This is just a fact.

00:59:12.880 And people who want to hoist this upon the independence movement really are showing they

00:59:19.040 lack an argument and they're just trying to create one to scare people.

00:59:22.540 And it's unfair misleading.

00:59:25.420 And I just think it's really unfortunate, this kind of hollow rhetoric, this kind of

00:59:32.620 hurling of pejoratives is effective often, unfortunately, but it is inaccurate.

00:59:40.180 And we've been to countless events, rallies, we've had numerous conversations and I've

00:59:51.260 the camera out i've been filming what i can and i have not seen a case of an event where like

00:59:56.960 one independent supporter gave another independent supporter a hard time for being a different

01:00:04.760 ethnic group right they care that they're there representing the movement trying to build bridges

01:00:11.440 and trying to spread the word like that matters above everything else in those kind of cases and

01:00:18.140 you think with all the events that we've been to if this was a problem we would we would be seeing

01:00:24.460 well first of all it would show up on just random cell phone videos it would be hard to hide it

01:00:29.660 would be something that like you would have no shortage of evidence of examples and even just

01:00:37.260 to point to like yeah well is a ethno state necessarily good let's say we had a bunch of like

01:00:45.500 the thing is you can have a bunch of white people with blue hair and the most marxist ideas and 0.84

01:00:55.140 that's not going to produce a good society so in that case like okay well what's the skin color 0.93

01:01:00.820 doing if it's if things are not grounded in shared values it doesn't matter if there's 0.86

01:01:07.180 homogenous external identifiers at this point yeah you know i don't i don't want to give such

01:01:12.960 people attacking us even an inch because yes it is true that people from the british isles

01:01:18.960 especially scotland england uh built or pioneered alberta and then we had more central europeans

01:01:26.320 come in at a in a later period there's nothing to be ashamed of right do they just hate it i mean

01:01:32.320 it's just a fact of history so i don't i don't want to give them an inch to attack us and they

01:01:40.040 have built, yes, like I said, a meritocratic province that promotes competition, open competition

01:01:45.880 where people gravitate towards. And I realize this is going to come up more and more. So I don't want

01:01:53.240 anyone to feel at all ashamed of Alberta or Alberta's history. And the truth is Alberta

01:02:00.040 at the very heart of Alberta is meritocracy and not discrimination. So I think people who do this

01:02:07.660 again it's it's a cart before the horse scenario with it just looking for any kind of excuse to

01:02:11.800 beat up on this when it's just not accurate fantastically said i i can't agree more um

01:02:19.240 maybe james has another question he'd like to ask you i i got i got one kind of in the in the

01:02:24.840 chamber here that i want you to uh i want you to stake your stake your professional reputation on

01:02:30.820 this uh what is your going into the final six months uh yeah six months or so of this um

01:02:37.700 campaign we know you know barring anything ridiculous from happening we know that we're

01:02:42.880 going to be having a referendum in october yeah make a prediction what do you think is going to

01:02:48.280 happen what what do you think the result will be what do you think the response you know either way

01:02:53.360 from from the the movement from the federal government will be um what's kind of your

01:02:58.420 feeling about about where we're headed okay two things first i do i do think the referendum will

01:03:04.220 prevail it'll be a narrow majority so between 50 and 55 percent and i think the united states will

01:03:12.360 provide some level of protection to alberta to avoid any kind of military confrontation with

01:03:20.680 Canada or Ottawa. And so there is a challenge that about 40% of Albertans are dead against this,

01:03:30.380 right? They have been propagandized by the CBC. All these pejoratives have worked on them.

01:03:35.220 And so there's a strong portion of Alberta that it's going to be very hard to persuade them

01:03:40.600 towards independence. However, we have about 40% now in favor and about 20% on the fence.

01:03:48.820 And I'm optimistic that a majority of those people on the fence will go for independence when there's a more open campaign and debate.

01:03:57.620 Why do I think the United States will recognize and defend Alberta?

01:04:02.460 They don't want some kind of military confrontation on their doorstep or across the fence.

01:04:07.680 they and further it will be a geopolitical win for the united states that there'll be less power

01:04:15.940 less financial might in ottawa which is inherently anti-american and more influence in a pro-us or a

01:04:25.640 close ally so it's alberta independence is a real win for the united states even even as alberta

01:04:32.060 will remain independent it'll still be a close ally and less of the political influence and

01:04:37.360 wealth will be going to Ottawa, which is more closely aligning with China, the Chinese communist

01:04:41.280 party and with the European union. And in terms of the actual time for the negotiation, I, this

01:04:47.620 is where I must admit, I just can't make a comment on that because I'm not an expert on the, that

01:04:52.000 legal process. Someone like Keith Wilson would be more qualified to talk about that. Yeah. Well,

01:04:58.120 And to follow up, post-referendum, do you think that B.C. and the rest of Canada will be so spiteful that they will shoot themselves in the foot to harm themselves just to spite Alberta?

01:05:15.680 Like, do you think B.C. would restrict pipeline?

01:05:19.480 Do you think it would escalate?

01:05:21.220 Or do you think mutual economic interests would align?

01:05:26.440 Absolutely not.

01:05:27.060 i think that the the rest of canada or the other canadian provinces they they will see the the

01:05:33.540 show of strength from alberta if you go into a negotiation like a bunch of wimps oh well

01:05:39.140 we we want to be good canadians oh they will they will abuse that and exploit it that's what's been

01:05:44.340 happening for generations that in my view the independence movement is simply just albertans

01:05:48.980 saying we're not we're not going to be abused anymore we're not going to be exploited anymore

01:05:51.940 stop stealing from us and the problem is that some albertans still don't seem to realize that

01:05:58.980 they're being abused and they just just have to wake up and assert themselves the more albertans

01:06:04.340 assert themselves the stronger uh position they will be when dealing with the rest of

01:06:09.380 canada or the the remaining canadian provinces and the the truth is that alberta will have many

01:06:15.380 chips on its side albertans will have obviously control over who goes through in terms of

01:06:19.860 transportation they will have resource wealth uh canada will have to negotiate so in many ways

01:06:26.340 alberta will be in a very strong negotiation position negotiating position and my hope too

01:06:31.460 is that this is maybe a long-term dream but i would love for the borders of this future buffalo

01:06:38.020 nation right when saskatchewan wants to join alberta do get broadened to have access to either

01:06:43.380 hope bc or somewhere to have uh ocean access in addition to that and i think that that is

01:06:49.700 a possibility uh you know there's a famous paper by the frontier center on this of course that

01:06:55.620 that'll come later but i think it is possible that i don't think canada won't be in a strong

01:07:00.500 position to negotiate especially if the united states says you cannot impose military intimidation

01:07:06.660 upon alberta awesome i i uh i tend to agree with you uh i i very much hope you're right

01:07:16.580 we sort of get a similar kind of response from you know you're not you're not the only person

01:07:21.540 we've asked that has had a similar response that so that every time i hear it from a new

01:07:26.180 you know subject matter expert in a different field the more confident i feel so that's that's

01:07:30.580 really good that that's your that's your assessment of it um fergus i i often like to ask our guests

01:07:36.900 was there anything that we didn't touch on today that you that you wish we did

01:07:40.020 no you i mean i obviously really appreciate your show i've listened to a bunch of your

01:07:47.780 interviews and videos but my my personal view is just that this is a historic time i don't want

01:07:55.380 people to miss this opportunity and that's why i personally for example i'm trying to get myself

01:07:59.060 up to alberta and be settled for this campaign period as soon as i can that this is not just

01:08:05.940 another campaign or another election this is real history and this will be talked about for

01:08:12.020 generations to come i encourage people to be a part of this and i think that the incredible

01:08:18.100 let's say moral high ground is with alberta and especially as a flag bearer for freedom

01:08:25.780 so that's my main message that this is an incredibly important moment in history that

01:08:32.420 I encourage people to get involved with, lest they be just an observer.

01:08:38.100 And also at the same time, don't doubt your own individual capacity to make a difference.

01:08:43.480 You guys are making a difference.

01:08:45.160 The number of people who actually engage in the political realm is a tiny fraction of the population.

01:08:50.300 Most people are just passive or apathetic or what have you.

01:08:54.700 A few people are really making a difference.

01:08:57.080 And so I would not lessen or doubt anyone's capacity, even if you turn up to these events, just another person or another dozen people make a difference.

01:09:07.220 So it's amazing how in a future country of 5 million people, maybe just about 10,000 people are going to make this happen.

01:09:16.400 That's awesome. It's so cool to think about.

01:09:18.800 Fergus Hodgson, do you have any events coming up? Are you planning on being back in the province anytime soon?

01:09:23.940 I will be back

01:09:25.120 in about a month

01:09:25.860 but no events

01:09:26.760 organized yet

01:09:27.420 so

01:09:28.120 okay

01:09:28.540 yeah

01:09:29.660 keep us posted

01:09:31.180 when you come

01:09:32.260 so

01:09:32.540 yeah we gotta get together

01:09:33.640 when you come

01:09:34.040 we were fortunate

01:09:34.680 to catch you in Leduc

01:09:35.720 and we're glad

01:09:37.480 that we got a chance

01:09:38.560 to meet you

01:09:39.020 so

01:09:39.320 thank you guys

01:09:40.240 we'll follow you around

01:09:40.860 and video you

01:09:41.720 wherever you go

01:09:42.620 cheers

01:09:45.540 I hope you guys

01:09:46.060 are speaking to us

01:09:46.640 thanks for your time man

01:09:46.920 no problem

01:09:48.320 cheers

01:09:48.900 really appreciate it

01:09:49.740 cheers

01:09:53.940 Transcription by CastingWords

The Critical Compass Podcast - May 12, 2026

Albertans are WINNERS & Will Be the Wealthiest Nation Per Capita on Earth ｜ Fergus Hodgson

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