The Critical Compass Podcast - May 12, 2026


Albertans are WINNERS & Will Be the Wealthiest Nation Per Capita on Earth ｜ Fergus Hodgson

Topics
alberta independence movement secession movements alberta independence impacts tax burden and discretionary income
Guests
James Fergus Hodgson james
Mentioned
Mike Jason Levine Donald Trump Keith Ellison Mark Milkey Tim Hortons
Albertans Will Be Kicking Themselves for Not Separating Sooner ｜ Fergus Hodgson on Economic Boons Independence Talk with PJ The Belt & the Freedom Calendar

Episode Stats


Length

1 hour and 10 minutes

Words per minute

158.24

Word count

11,140

Sentence count

238

Harmful content

Toxicity

7

sentences flagged

Hate speech

19

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, Mike and James are joined by Fergus Hodgson, a modern day renaissance man with degrees in finance and political science. Fergus is an author, publisher, and chartered alternative investment analyst, and founder of EconAmerica's LLC, a financial consultancy devoted to alternative investments, stakeholder management, and jurisdictional arbitrage.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00 At the end of the day, why are people loyal to Ottawa?
00:00:02 It seems clear to me that the loyalists believe in redistribution
00:00:08 and they have a hostility towards Western civilization,
00:00:12 so they want to engage in social engineering.
00:00:15 It just is the case that the Quebec independence movement
00:00:19 has been led by the cultural elites, the media, academics, artists,
00:00:25 whereas that is the flip side in Alberta.
00:00:27 With Alberta, it's a serious threat because Alberta has the headroom economically to become independent and still have money left over.
00:00:37 And almost without exception, Fergus, the refrain that we hear from people really that actually differ quite significantly on other political issues.
00:00:47 But if they're in favor of Alberta independence, the thing they keep repeating and emphasizing is that actually they view Alberta independence as a return to what they knew of what Canada was, what it felt to be Canadian up until, you know, 15, 20 years ago.
00:01:07 Hi, everyone. Welcome back to The Critical Compass. My name's Mike, and we're here with
00:01:24 James, and we're very pleased to be joined by Mr. Fergus Hodgson. We met Fergus just
00:01:29 a couple of weeks ago. He did a speech at a Jason Levine event in Leduc. I wrote a short
00:01:37 biography of mr hodgson i'm going to read it now and then we're going to get fergus to uh
00:01:43 to correct anything i got wrong and expand from there so i have uh fergus hodgson is a modern
00:01:48 day renaissance man that's my words with degrees in finance economics and political science he's
00:01:53 an author publisher and chartered alternative investment analyst and founder of econ america's
00:01:58 llc a financial consultancy devoted to alternative investments stakeholder management and
00:02:04 and jurisdictional arbitrage. How did I do? That's all accurate. I mean, that's 100%
00:02:09 correct. So, I mean, except the Renaissance man, that's subjective. So I'll leave that to
00:02:15 people's judgment. Yeah. Well, you're certainly a fascinating man. We really like listening to you
00:02:22 in your speech. And you probably, I guess the thrust of your speech at that event
00:02:27 was how you were making the case for how Alberta should be reasonably
00:02:33 really the most wealthy nation per capita on the planet
00:02:37 and how we have currently, to your knowledge,
00:02:42 we have currently the most robust and active independence movement
00:02:46 in the world right now.
00:02:47 Correct.
00:02:48 I'd love for you to expand on that, and we'll take it from there.
00:02:52 yeah so it i mean look i was so happy to meet you guys in leduc and just near edmonton and
00:03:01 it was such an honor to be part of that you could just feel i mean just the great best people were
00:03:07 there a lovely sentiment and a great deal of optimism you know hope for what can come now
00:03:14 so the the question of different independence or secession movements around the world
00:03:21 This has been maybe a topic of interest to me for, I mean, as long as I can remember,
00:03:27 because I even remember back when I was an undergraduate in the United States,
00:03:31 and I thought, we're stuck.
00:03:33 I was in Boston, and I thought, I said to a law professor, can't we just secede from this?
00:03:39 Can't we just get out of this really dysfunctional relationship?
00:03:42 and when i when i went to canada to look for work in 2008 i learned about certain aspects that many
00:03:52 canadians aren't even aware of if you go to the east they don't they don't even know what
00:03:55 equalization is for example and i just realized that canada was maybe let's say structurally even
00:04:03 worse in terms of design than the united states and so that was so i've been a pro-independence
00:04:09 for almost 20 years okay and i've focused on secession movements in many many places
00:04:17 right near where i live in colorado one of the counties uh just next to me weld county
00:04:24 has sought to secede and join wyoming because colorado is becoming this very costly and let's
00:04:31 say overtaxed uh part of the country like california and whereas wyoming is in contrast
00:04:36 the least taxed but it just is so difficult to overcome the institutional barriers because
00:04:43 power brokers of course are incredibly resistant to this and my personal view is that
00:04:50 when secession can succeed it is it's incredibly uh successful or incredibly uh positive and the
00:04:58 most notable would be after the end of the soviet union when so many new countries came
00:05:03 and became uh wealthy and successful estonia georgia latvia what have you and some countries
00:05:10 like moldova are still trying to get out of that to some degree but it's a really tough road and
00:05:18 as we enter let's say more bureaucratized world you've got more it's almost like the
00:05:24 the arms race that we witness in university administrations they just so many rent seekers
00:05:29 get in there and they fight change because they're getting an easy ride off the process
00:05:35 and they don't want accountability or change because they will lose out.
00:05:39 They'll have to get a real job.
00:05:41 So, yeah, I mentioned in Leduc that I'm a big fan of Ireland leaving the European Union,
00:05:47 of Texas leaving the United States, and of Cortez, a part of Honduras leaving and becoming
00:05:52 a new country like Panama.
00:05:54 And in all three cases, to me, it's just a very no-brainer.
00:05:57 it's it would be a wonderful uh win but i mentioned that there just isn't huge support for
00:06:05 it it's like we have this what i call the status quo bias and i think it's it's an untapped
00:06:12 opportunity and the fact is that i don't know you know like i said i've been following these things
00:06:17 for years and i actually think this can happen in alberta that all the momentum is on the independent
00:06:23 independent side right if we were to go back 20 years there would be maybe single digit support
00:06:30 for this and now there's maybe 40 percent even higher which suggests the trajectory is incredibly
00:06:35 positive and so i don't know of any even in the united states i think south carolina has the most
00:06:42 support for independence from the united states and even there it's maybe 25 maybe 20 it's it's
00:06:47 it's just people are so accustomed to what they know yeah
00:06:53 Yeah. And I guess Canada is unique in one way. We have all, like considering our downsides, we do have a established legal pathway for succession outlined by the Supreme Court where other countries don't even recognize that to the point. So there's an additional hurdle. So the benefit of the Supreme Court recognizing that a clear democratic will has to be respected.
00:07:19 Yeah.
00:07:20 And then everything else unfolds from there.
00:07:22 yeah it is and that's what i've told people who are the 51st staters that that really is an
00:07:28 advantage in canada that it's not universal but there's strong agreement among many many people
00:07:35 and even in the legal profession that secession is a lawful process in canada whereas there's
00:07:41 there's very little support for that in the united states or under assumption there and
00:07:46 south carolina i mentioned because south carolina was the first state to secede prior to the war
00:07:51 between the states or civil war if you want to call it that yeah yeah it's interesting because
00:07:57 i remember as a you know a kid growing up in the 90s in canada i remember the you know the the
00:08:03 second uh quebec independence referendum i think it was or yeah i think it was 95 the first one
00:08:08 was 80 and yeah 95 and i remember kind of the general sentiment in alberta at that time being
00:08:13 i mean i was young but i kind of remember it being like oh those silly quebecers like well 1.00
00:08:18 they don't know what they're doing. Like they're, they're never going to be France. Like it's just 1.00
00:08:21 sort of a, but this is like looking back on it now, uh, the rest of the country actually didn't
00:08:28 react that way. They actually, like, there was a lot of kid gloves and there was a lot of coddling
00:08:32 and there was a lot of, you know, please don't leave. You know, uh, my, my Canada includes Quebec
00:08:37 and like, there was a lot of this sort of, um, gentle treatment to, to try and, uh, you know,
00:08:43 keep them in the union. And it feels like it's, it's the exact opposite with the Alberta independence
00:08:47 movement now like it feels like almost every day there's some new you know uh epithet thrown at us 0.99
00:08:54 about you know why we're stupid rednecks that uh not only can't we do this but you know we're 0.98
00:08:59 we're actually idiots for wanting to even see this happen so what i don't know if you have any 0.99
00:09:04 thoughts on why why that difference might be i do mike but to be frank i would really like to hear 0.92
00:09:09 your own perspective on that i did not live through that time i have i have in my mind a
00:09:15 clear explanation, but I don't want to jinx it or, you know, give the answer. I'm curious to
00:09:20 hear your perspective. Well, I mean, I guess if I had to make a guess, it would probably be because
00:09:26 I don't think it's organic primarily. I think the conversation has to be directed that way by
00:09:32 government-influenced media interests because Alberta just frankly is the primary breadwinner
00:09:41 for the country. So it would be catastrophic for the Canadian dollar would be catastrophic for the
00:09:46 rest, for the, for the Eastern portion of the country. I think in a way that the, the loss
00:09:52 of Quebec was more seen as a, um, you know, coming out of the Pierre Trudeau era of the
00:09:59 eighties, I think it would have been seen more as a cultural loss than a, than an economic loss.
00:10:04 Uh, and I don't think the rest of the country sees us as a, as a cultural bastion at all. So
00:10:09 maybe that would be my my general idea yeah it would be a a knock to canada's pride or ottawa's
00:10:17 pride to lose quebec but my my personal view and i've i've written about this
00:10:23 i've got an article you know the difference between sovereigntists and loyalists and what
00:10:30 really at the at the end of the day why are people loyal to ottawa and it seems clear to me
00:10:39 that the loyalists believe in redistribution right this equality mission or so-called equity
00:10:46 and they have a hostility towards western civilization so they want to engage in social
00:10:52 engineering and it just is the case that the quebec independence movement has been led by
00:11:01 the cultural elites the media academics artists whereas that is the flip side in alberta
00:11:10 so the alberta movement is it a direct it comes into direct conflict with those let's say just
00:11:19 fundamental values of auto of re-engineering western civilization and taking from the earners
00:11:27 and giving to the less less earning and so that's at the end of the day if if someone is just has
00:11:36 let's say hates the patriarchy and hates capitalism and hates christianity well you're gonna have a
00:11:43 hard time persuading that person to support Alberta independence yeah I guess there's an
00:11:50 another factor though like with Quebec if they're just if most of their talking point with separation
00:11:58 is we want to preserve our French heritage and language um there there's still kind of an outlet
00:12:06 for that to exist within Canada and that's what they got they got stronger language laws and
00:12:10 they've established
00:12:12 themselves somewhat
00:12:14 within Canada to a point that
00:12:16 they were appeased enough to
00:12:18 coexist. With Alberta
00:12:20 independence, it's almost like
00:12:22 we're holding up a mirror to the system
00:12:24 and you
00:12:26 have, you're forced to
00:12:28 look
00:12:30 inward at the
00:12:32 nature of confederation, the nature of
00:12:34 redistribution, the nature of
00:12:36 the structural imbalances
00:12:38 in a way that wasn't
00:12:40 really it wasn't unpacked in the same depth uh when quebec was advocating for its own independence
00:12:49 i don't think the same grievances i don't think the same arguments about the imbalances of the
00:12:53 system were made because they they benefited from that a little bit so it was more it seemed tied to
00:13:02 more of the cultural aspect because they weren't even a in a fully sufficient place to leave
00:13:07 anyways so with alberta it's a serious threat because alberta has the headroom economically
00:13:14 to become independent and still have money left over that's a completely different situation
00:13:21 yeah so progressives or socialists leftists tend to see the world as this battle between
00:13:29 the oppressed and the oppressors and Quebecers and I'm trying to I'm going to be as gentle as I
00:13:38 can here with them they obviously play into that victim mentality even their license plates on their
00:13:47 cars the je me souviens bit is weird to me the way it says we will remember you know
00:13:54 And imagine if, you know, it's just a strange thing
00:13:59 that they remember past grievances and feel like victims,
00:14:02 whether they are or not, that's another story, okay?
00:14:06 But Albertans, they just don't fit into that.
00:14:09 They actually see themselves as winners.
00:14:11 They don't see themselves as victims so much.
00:14:13 So it just, it throws off this rhetoric.
00:14:16 And even if they were to claim to be victims,
00:14:19 they can be victims of redistribution,
00:14:21 But it's just not like they're not like they don't want to be victims.
00:14:27 It's not their push.
00:14:29 And so it just doesn't like they're not going to fit into this oppressive versus oppressed narrative because they're capitalists, you know, white males or whatever you want to call them.
00:14:40 And it just doesn't fit the progressive narrative.
00:14:44 You know, so there's not going to be sympathy for them.
00:14:46 so i and my personal view is that i would love to see quebec be independent and i think that
00:14:55 would be really healthy for them but i agree with you that they've been able to get a lot of what
00:14:59 they wanted already within canada since their grievances were more easily addressed alberta's
00:15:05 grievances cannot be addressed there it's just impossible to be addressed within confederation
00:15:10 yeah yeah and it's you know we've we've kind of joked on the show before about how you know we
00:15:17 would be happy if at the end of all this you know if if alberta got 10 of the consideration that
00:15:23 quebec does you know in confederation but um obviously that's that's not going to be enough
00:15:28 anymore but um i i think that there is a i don't know there's sort of a psychological aspect at
00:15:37 play to where you have people who, I feel like nowadays, maybe this is more of a psychology
00:15:42 question than anything in any of our expertises, but there does seem to be a psychological
00:15:48 component where people nowadays have like a sort of reflexive opposition to what they
00:15:56 see as like a boisterous, like a Trumpian, you know, sort of, I'm not sure really of
00:16:04 the of the term i'm looking for but somebody who's who who knows they're you know a person very
00:16:09 confident in the movement we can support ourselves we have the money to do this we they get people
00:16:15 get their their backs up a little bit when they when they hear this i think the i think the uh 0.62
00:16:20 the kiwis and the aussies call this a tall poppy syndrome right you know they don't people yeah 0.98
00:16:25 people don't want to feel like they're in any way making themselves or or don't want to be 0.99
00:16:31 associated with other people who they get this feeling from putting themselves above others
00:16:36 do you sort of understand what i'm saying do you get that as well i do mike yeah and this is where
00:16:40 you would have a stronger feel for canadian society than i would right but it absolutely
00:16:49 is the case that in australia and new zealand we do have the tall poppy syndrome and i suspect it
00:16:54 is basically the same in Canada, where it's just not socially acceptable to show pride in oneself
00:17:03 or to think, you know, to be, think as the Trump would say, I'm the greatest or whatever. It's just,
00:17:08 it's just counter to a very egalitarian streak. And maybe that is, you know, a hangover from
00:17:16 the British empire or the feudal system, who knows where it comes from. That's a complicated
00:17:22 question but it exists and yes the pompousness maybe of some americans really rubs the anglosphere
00:17:33 people the wrong way yeah and so that's why this trump derangement syndrome has become so pernicious
00:17:39 or prevalent in in these countries in canada australia new zealand and it has gone beyond
00:17:46 rationality just it's it's just like this very guttural impulse this disgust towards that that's
00:17:51 right and i think it's unproductive or it's a wasted it's it's wasted energy but it absolutely
00:17:57 is in the um it's in in the arena and i personally try to avoid aligning myself too closely with any
00:18:05 politician because he will always let you down basically people are human and but and it's the
00:18:13 it's the same with with Donald Trump I don't want to align myself with him and I don't
00:18:18 think the independence movement should even though of course there are plenty of people
00:18:21 within it who have an affection towards him yeah yeah yeah it's a it's a hard thing to
00:18:28 navigate because the associations are there um even there's that residual baggage of the
00:18:35 51st state yeah yeah like that that rhetoric pops up time and time again even though we
00:18:43 could say well the support isn't there from the actual independent supporters we don't want to
00:18:47 trade a neglectful government 3 000 kilometers away in ottawa with another one 3 000 kilometers
00:18:55 away in washington yeah so like we want to run our own ship but that's not enough because these
00:19:01 arguments will pop up obviously we don't want to feed we don't want to give them ammo we don't
00:19:07 want to trigger any tds um from people so i avoid any like if if there's a rally and somebody has
00:19:16 an american flag i don't film it if i'm like trying to capture footage and stuff like it's
00:19:21 not helping it's a terrible idea and it is a minority of like it but all it takes one and
00:19:27 then you have cbc and ctv news just they always now use that that's their favorite shot now is
00:19:35 the combined american alberta flag um so it's a it's a difficult thing to to navigate but um yeah
00:19:44 it's an uphill battle when they want to squash the movement yeah someone i admire and i i brought
00:19:51 his book up to show people is cory morgan right and the book is the sovereignty's handbook right
00:19:58 and i just strongly recommend people read this and he put out a video like i listened to almost
00:20:05 all his uh commentaries or presentations on this topic and he just said if you want to know the
00:20:11 weaknesses of the independence movement look at where the critics are going and of course they
00:20:16 want to demonize us and call us all sorts of names all the pejoratives we know them
00:20:22 and they also want to call unfortunately in canada being american as a pejorative
00:20:27 it's a many people so they want to call it some kind of american psyop or movement or whatever
00:20:32 you want to call yeah but the truth is that it's really just not an issue down here no one even
00:20:38 knows where alberta is and it's not a high priority the united states is so busy dealing with so many
00:20:43 other projects you might say whether it's venezuela or iran or ukraine or who knows what it's just
00:20:49 a litany of challenges that alberta is not a high priority at all but because many albertans and
00:20:57 canadians more broadly speaking are fearful of the united states or have a negative knee-jerk
00:21:02 reaction i think you're right it's it's it's something that that the regime media will continue
00:21:08 to play up even though we all know that it's a small minority of the people who support independence
00:21:13 now it is a minority and maybe even a vocal minority uh so there will be some people who
00:21:19 will resist uh keeping that keeping a lid on that i think it's a very bad idea joining the united
00:21:26 States, but, and I think, unfortunately, people who live outside the United States can have
00:21:34 a more positive or nostalgic view of the country, and they'll say, oh, the United States is
00:21:42 a republic with separation of powers and limited government, and I just, I think people need
00:21:48 to be a bit more realistic or show a bit more awareness in that regard, because the United
00:21:54 States has many of the same problems as Canada. And if anyone actually reads the U.S. Constitution
00:22:00 or Declaration of Independence, you will see that the federal government is basically the
00:22:05 anti-American government, not the American government. And I just, I think it would be a
00:22:13 terrible mistake. I do want and hope that the U.S. federal government will support and recognize
00:22:22 Alberta independence, but permit Alberta and be supportive of Alberta being its own nation,
00:22:28 much like Panama is in Central America. Yeah. You know, we we hear that sort of
00:22:37 doom sort of, you know, complaint all the time of like, well, if Alberta were to separate the US
00:22:44 would just, you know, Trump would invade and, you know, swallow us up and we would be for it. And
00:22:50 And it's like the fact is if the U.S. wanted to do that now, they could do it for the entire country.
00:22:56 I mean, we are our entire national budget.
00:22:58 What's stopping them right now?
00:22:59 Nothing.
00:22:59 Yeah, exactly.
00:23:01 90% of our trade in Alberta is north-south anyway to begin with.
00:23:04 So there's no economic argument.
00:23:06 Our national GDP is like it's pretty close to what the U.S.'s military budget is.
00:23:14 So it's like not even it's not a contest.
00:23:16 They can do whatever they want.
00:23:17 the fact that they don't you know it's not a it's not a political win for them to do that so
00:23:21 i keep thinking about in these conversations are you familiar with that that mad men meme where
00:23:28 it's like the elevator like the the one marketing guy character and john ham in the elevator and
00:23:34 the one little guy says like i feel sorry for you and then john ham's character says i don't think
00:23:39 about you at all that's sort of what i feel like the relationship between canada and the u.s is
00:23:43 right now it really is and you might even say it's a personality flaw of americans that they just
00:23:50 have so little interest about it regarding canada uh that they just see themselves as the as the
00:23:56 topic and in many ways the media here don't really care about about independence unless it has
00:24:02 statehood attached to it or unless trump is part of the story so it's just and it's something that
00:24:09 i've wrestled with for the years that i've lived here the way that americans are incredibly uh
00:24:15 focused on their own country and not the rest of the world it's it's because i'm from a country of
00:24:20 just five million people new zealand so we don't have that perspective but then of course we have
00:24:27 not led the world in so many regards so we can't really claim that status americans would you know
00:24:32 in terms of the popular culture have been so dominant in so many ways that in some ways maybe
00:24:37 they've earned a little bit of that and even if you think about let's say films coming out of
00:24:43 canada the most prominent film to come out of canada was my big fat greek wedding which is
00:24:49 great like i enjoyed that movie but the comparison between hollywood and canadian let's say the the
00:24:55 cultural or um arts is just i mean there's no comparison basically so yeah i mean i'm trying
00:25:03 trying to think how to round that off in terms of the whole invasion idea i think it is ridiculous
00:25:09 and there's just no appetite in the united states to do that i mean they have a hard enough appetite 0.96
00:25:15 you know hard enough um time going after crazy islamic dictatorships or whatever it may be
00:25:22 let alone attacking a bosom buddy ally that is has open trade i mean it would just be it would
00:25:27 make no sense at all so i don't see that i just see it as a non-starter it's one of these
00:25:32 boogeymen that critics are going to throw out there because they have no real good arguments.
00:25:37 That's the real problem. And we're seeing this very clearly now in these open discussions that
00:25:44 rather than engage in any kind of healthy debate, it's largely just calling people treasonous or
00:25:51 traitors or disloyal or whatever it may be. It's a lot of hyperbole and also just basically saying
00:25:59 you cannot do it. There's very little actual discussion because the case for Alberta being
00:26:04 in Canada is so weak that they don't have much leg to stand on. And that's why I think
00:26:10 the next six months are going to be a great success for the independence movement so long
00:26:17 as we can stay organized and on task. Because I just think the numbers, the argument, it's
00:26:24 so strong. And I am concerned, I mean, you might have seen this, I'm sure you have, about
00:26:32 the allegation that the Prime Minister wants to use the Emergencies Act or the War Powers
00:26:38 Act, as it was called, against Alberta. And that suggests to you that they really have
00:26:42 no argument and they're very afraid. They realize that exactly what we think, that this
00:26:47 will grow and there's a strong likelihood of this referendum succeeding.
00:26:51 Hmm. Yeah. Sorry. Sorry. Just to piggyback. Sorry, James, I'm going to double up here. And then you, you ask a real long question after, uh, just your point about, uh, uh, being called traitors and the word treasonous and things like this. It's funny because, you know, we've interviewed so many people involved in this movement or, or, or just supporters of it.
00:27:12 And almost without exception, Fergus, the, the refrain that we hear from people really that actually differ quite significantly on other political issues, but if they're in favor of Alberta independence, the thing they keep repeating and, and emphasizing is that actually they view Alberta independence as a return to what they knew of what Canada was, what it felt to be Canadian up until, you know, 15, 20 years ago.
00:27:38 yeah i mean i agree with that entirely that the in many ways the alberta independence movement
00:27:45 is a restoration of the best of canada and some americans would even say that applies to their
00:27:52 country too that they were preserving the best of the british empire at that time and trying to
00:27:58 impede let's say the tyranny of the king at that time and so the albertans are trying to preserve
00:28:03 the best of Canada against the tyranny of Ottawa and I mean it the problem is that Canada has just
00:28:11 changed as you say so much in the last generation in the last 30 odd years that it's I wouldn't say
00:28:17 it's unrecognizable but culturally that let's say the Canada brand is nothing like what it was when
00:28:24 my mother was growing up right back in the 60s and 70s and at that time you had people from Europe
00:28:31 going to Canada for much better prospects, but how much does that even happen anymore?
00:28:35 It's almost not a thing. And so I just think that that pioneer Canada
00:28:44 is what Alberta independence is all about. So that's why in my own writing, my own discussions,
00:28:52 I try to make be clear that the enemy is Ottawa. It is not Canada. And you can be proud of,
00:29:00 you know canada's history even if you realize that the the confederation has become toxic at this
00:29:05 point yeah and it just in terms of the branding too this is another reason why i think this is
00:29:11 going to win because even if we go beyond the numbers of the the cpp or the debts or
00:29:17 just gdp per capita or whatever it may be the branding of ottawa is atrocious they're basically
00:29:24 the soy soy boy wimpy capital of the world at this point and obviously uh trudeau led the charge in
00:29:31 this regard whereas alberta is something to be proud of you are real frontier hard-working pioneer 0.56
00:29:38 men and who wants to be part of this weak uh you know spineless city that's just a predator or a
00:29:47 parasite versus a proud man who wants to be his own king basically and so i think that is the
00:29:55 alberta brand is great i mean it's something that many people relate to want to be a part of
00:30:00 are attracted to and i know that one of my friends from saskatchewan who lives in the united states
00:30:06 he and i of course would would be the first ones to want to live in a free alberta right right now
00:30:11 i can't i don't want to be associated with ottawa but it's taxes and many other policies
00:30:15 and so it's hard for me to go back to canada these days but of course a free alberta would
00:30:20 be attractive to many many people like me yeah and you would naturally see a influx of highly
00:30:28 skilled talented people who want who who value freedom and who value everything that alberta
00:30:35 stands for and if five million is enough for new zealand to be its own country then five million
00:30:41 enough for alberta with with alberta's land mass and gdp like you still see this argument pop up
00:30:49 that people said like well alberta doesn't have the population to be its own country and like well
00:30:53 who says these things it's so ridiculous all kinds of people yeah this is they these arguments have
00:30:59 to be like sometimes you still have to address them in the comments or the random people who will
00:31:06 still say that it's partially because there's a lot of people who haven't thought deeply about
00:31:11 this so they just feel that canada is immutable that a country cannot be changed people should
00:31:19 not have a right for self-determination and they feel like a province leaving is destroying a
00:31:24 country that it only works with every single province there and they kind of have a point
00:31:30 that like canada is dependent on alberta but if the rest of canada is dependent on alberta
00:31:39 it would be in the best interest for every other province to grow and adapt the way that they
00:31:49 operate to be more self-sufficient if they are currently relying on an oil money that they hate
00:31:56 that they're actively suppressing to pay for all their services anyways that's not a that's not a
00:32:02 sustainable and or functioning or a healthy relationship right now yeah james i mean you're
00:32:09 touching on a real um thorny point here people have an emotional connection to canada and if they
00:32:20 uh consuming the cbc they have an emotional connection to ottawa and they will basically
00:32:25 put the cart before the horse they will re you know reverse engineer arguments to fit with
00:32:32 those emotions so of course we know that canada was not always in its current structure newfoundland
00:32:38 only joined just over 50 years ago or 60 years ago so does that mean was that wrong did we violate
00:32:45 canada's unity or structure or what or whatever at that time and we also know that many parts of
00:32:52 canada did not become part of the country voluntarily right so it it's it's a very con
00:33:00 there's not a lot of it's it's a foundation of sand this argument that the the current uh
00:33:06 structure of canada is just forever why who knows but that is a very weak argument and it in my view
00:33:14 it is purely trotted out by people who have an emotional connection to ottawa or canada
00:33:21 and are consuming too much of the raging media and are reaching to try to find something to
00:33:27 back up their case now it is true that if when alberta leaves the future of canada is unclear
00:33:40 and uh probably it is the case that the canada that we know today will go through a restructuring
00:33:47 and perhaps other provinces will leave some will probably try to join the united states who knows
00:33:52 and but i just see that as a great thing you know this is where maybe because i did not grow up in
00:33:58 canada i have more of a nostalgia for alberta where i went so often with my mother and family
00:34:03 than i do for the rest of canada and also because when i went to canada looking for work i had a
00:34:09 really hard time and i worked mostly in nova scotia and i was one of these people who really
00:34:15 felt the brunt of a weak economy and lack of opportunity and as soon as i got to the united
00:34:21 states i had great success and and you start to think is the problem me or is the problem
00:34:26 canada the economy there and you realize that it is the economy that it's not you basically you
00:34:31 you know? Yeah. Yeah. And I think you have an advantage as well of being, um, being able to
00:34:36 see it a little bit more objectively from, uh, I mean, you're, you're a money guy, you're a
00:34:40 numbers guy, right? Um, I'm curious what you think, like you, we will of course direct people
00:34:45 to your, to your speech in Leduc the other week, but I'm curious the, on the other side of the
00:34:51 argument, what would be your prediction for? And his book. Yeah, sure. And his book. Yes,
00:34:56 That's right. Let's maybe explore what you think the, what will be the immediate effects
00:35:04 financially that you predict if Alberta separates? Now, of course, I know this is a process and it
00:35:10 won't happen overnight, but what do you suspect will be the greatest economic impacts and maybe
00:35:16 the response of an Alberta-less Canada? Well, many things. My personal sense is that once
00:35:25 this is achieved the gains will be so enormous people wonder why were we ever why did why was
00:35:33 this even a question to begin with right and the big difference right now but between even just
00:35:39 being in the united states versus being in canada is the tax burden so the most notable change will
00:35:45 be a massive reduction in taxation which is i mean huge for many of us i mean it's it's a real weight
00:35:51 off your back. So in life, we typically have some relatively fixed expenses, right? Our utilities,
00:35:59 accommodation, basic foods, maybe some vocational training, what have you, things we just have,
00:36:05 we need to get by. And we also have our tax burden. And then whatever's left after these
00:36:10 things is more our discretionary income. And the big challenge is that in Canada, much like back
00:36:15 in New Zealand, there's just very little of that left. Canadians have very little room to breathe. 0.84
00:36:20 And one of the first chapters, I think it's the second chapter, I don't remember right now, in the book is bankruptcies or insolvencies tell the tale.
00:36:31 This predates the COVID era.
00:36:34 There's just a really unsavory or unhealthy trend in Canada towards financial insolvency.
00:36:42 so the biggest turnaround i would hope to see would be a reversal of that that people have some
00:36:49 room to breathe discretionary income to start rebuilding their lives and they wouldn't have
00:36:53 to go into debt or or declare bankruptcy so frequently so yeah like i said the first thing
00:36:59 would be a lower tax burden and then a higher level of discretionary income leading to fewer
00:37:05 bankruptcies. And again, I just, I just think that once this happens, it'll be such a no-brainer
00:37:14 that everyone just said, well, this is so much better. You know, we can see why you, you might
00:37:17 have all seen this, this post on X from an American economist about how for every Canadian
00:37:23 living in the United States, there's something like 59 of them for every one American living in
00:37:28 Canada. And even where I live in Fort Collins, I know a handful of Canadians just in my local
00:37:32 running club ones from medicine hat and they don't they're not necessarily ideological migrants
00:37:39 they've just moved for better job prospects a better quality of life and they don't they don't
00:37:43 think about it in terms of ideology they just think where can i live better and it happens to
00:37:46 be here in colorado which is not even a low tax or low cost state in the united states years ago
00:37:52 mark milkey who wrote the book tax me i'm canadian he noted that even the high tax states in the
00:37:58 in the United States like Massachusetts are basically a breath of fresh air versus Atlanta,
00:38:03 Canada versus their peer provinces across the border. So that's, to me, that's the big problem
00:38:09 that the Canadian, for many reasons, Canada has developed an enormous tax burden. And it's not
00:38:17 quite 10% more out of the GDP, but so let's say, I think in the US, it's maybe 35, 36% of the
00:38:25 economy is government spending, but in Canada, 44%. So about 8% more. And that's a huge portion
00:38:32 of the economy that is just going to waste and bureaucracy, basically. I think also there would
00:38:38 be key changes. So there would be a decline in inflation because right now, structurally,
00:38:45 Canada is basically deliberately creating inflation with supply management. If you can somehow break
00:38:50 that, just these common necessities will be more affordable. Also, you'll be able to have a more
00:38:55 favorable trade agreement with the united states which would just flush flush the uh or flood the
00:38:59 country with more affordable products so i mean i'm trying to think the challenge is like you
00:39:06 say there is some uncertainty over the transition period but i quieten that by by saying that both
00:39:13 the united kingdom and new zealand do not have a written constitution what makes them successful or
00:39:20 what what what what what has given them success has been their traditions and the people there
00:39:25 the constituents and that is what will continue with alberto whatever the words are on the
00:39:29 constitution that the constituents there are the ones who will make alberto a success
00:39:35 yeah there's a part of part of that is unpacking with people through metrics like how canada is
00:39:44 doing right now and there's some weird games people play with some of the numbers um and it
00:39:51 depends if you're measuring like gdp per capita versus debt like household debt per gdp versus
00:39:59 still look at like the loss of investment let it be on the personal side then yeah others will say
00:40:04 that well foreign investment increased and they're all proud of this number and then you look at the
00:40:10 actual numbers and most of the foreign investment went up to buy failing canadian companies and
00:40:17 they're buying them for cheap so they are bragging about something which is describing the like slow
00:40:25 like collapse of canada um so there are a lot of ways that people will spin this to
00:40:32 argue that canada is a there's like well we have the financial institutions we've got like confidence
00:40:39 and our legal system and we have this long standing history and we're respected on the
00:40:45 international stage and all of those are debatable right now um yeah so it's it's
00:40:52 depends who you're arguing with yeah so my personal view is that the persecution of the
00:41:01 the trucker convoy especially the freezing of the bank accounts did just incalculable damage to
00:41:09 canada's reputation the veneer of canada as this place of law and order and decorum was just crushed 0.99
00:41:19 forever because we all know anyone can see especially foreigners who just get social media
00:41:27 or whatever, can see that these were just harmless people protesting.
00:41:34 They were not organized criminals.
00:41:36 And so when you freeze their bank accounts and persecute them,
00:41:40 it really was a terrible look.
00:41:42 So I don't think Canada or Ottawa will ever recover from that,
00:41:46 that Americans have such a lower view or dim view of Canada since that time
00:41:52 because that really captured the attention down here.
00:41:55 now just there is there are i mean not everything is bad in canada of course uh the mining sector
00:42:03 of canada is one of the leading lights that i don't know if you guys know this but in vancouver
00:42:08 there's basically the the hub of all the the headquarters capital of mining from around the
00:42:15 world that most of the mining companies have their headquarters in vancouver however that is
00:42:22 precarious it is not guaranteed forever and mining companies are very let's say savvy and make
00:42:27 calculated decisions and that particular success story for canada could soon be lost that places
00:42:36 like nevada are challenging uh let's say the jurisdictional competitiveness of canadian
00:42:43 provinces so i think if alberta were to leave that would really do uh it would undermine even
00:42:50 further Canada's reputation as a mining safe haven, at least for setting up a headquarters
00:42:55 and getting regulatory approval, because still the Toronto Stock Exchange and the TSV, the
00:43:04 Toronto Venture Exchange, are where many junior and senior mining companies list themselves.
00:43:13 So it's almost like you're one election away from it being a regulatory environment that
00:43:19 they hate yes yeah it's it wouldn't take much and we're like it could just be one environmental law
00:43:26 and now every single mining company is in violation of that new law and they would have
00:43:33 to either restructure they have to modify the way that they work and now they would go somewhere
00:43:40 else like it could be as simple as that yeah like because the money companies unlike other businesses
00:43:46 are very nimble and they respond to incentives carefully so they could move now of course there
00:43:53 is healthy momentum in canada canada both vancouver and to a lesser degree toronto
00:43:59 have many of the mining headquarters and that's become the standard path to especially for junior
00:44:05 mining companies but i mean they're like i said they're very agile and they will go where they
00:44:12 think the best or most welcoming environment is and of course the americans would welcome them
00:44:17 with open arms and the american regulatory framework would would evolve to incorporate them
00:44:24 already you know so already there are many companies that do list on u.s exchanges so it's
00:44:29 not like canada has a monopoly like people could make that transition without too much difficulty
00:44:34 it's more just tradition at this point since the 90s the money companies have been based in vancouver
00:44:39 Interesting. Yeah, that's been a talking point as well about how, you know, um, Alberta independence will, uh, you know, this discussion is scaring away investment and it's, uh, you know, it's, we're gonna, uh, paradoxically, uh, you know, ruin our own industry.
00:44:56 And it's like, I don't know, man, everywhere I look, every single thing I see and read is that companies, especially heavy industry companies in any sort of heavy industry, they absolutely eat up any opportunity to get to an environment of less government regulation, less overt, fake environmental policy.
00:45:19 and like i i don't see how there's any way possible that uh an independent alberta doesn't
00:45:25 become an absolute haven for all of these guys yeah so in some ways this brings us back to the
00:45:31 question of 5 million or the the population because new zealand does have 5 million now but
00:45:38 when i was a child in the 80s and early 90s it was just 3 million and new zealand really became
00:45:43 a successful country with just one or two million people and if you look at the most successful
00:45:48 countries right now i mean the country i really admire is lichtenstein and they have 40 000 people
00:45:53 okay so these micro states in many regards are the future they're the most um
00:46:00 innovative they they offer the most accountable government places like monaco so okay now in
00:46:09 terms of the let's say the regulatory environment in alberta the big concern i have and even
00:46:17 regime or legacy media outlets are getting on to this point is the decline of the high trust
00:46:22 society in canada now my other book is it is about latin america it's called the latin america red
00:46:29 pill and i talk about how the lack of trust in latin america is just crippling for economic
00:46:35 development and so basically the the biggest companies down there tend to be either enormous
00:46:40 cronies like petrobus this big oil company out of brazil autobrite or they tend to be family
00:46:48 conglomerates because families will trust each other more so than just the general public so
00:46:54 they really have a difficult time building stock markets and in broader public you know secondary
00:46:58 markets the the truth is that canada as far as i can tell is going through a free fall in public
00:47:07 trust right now and that's going to harm incredibly uh deeply the growth potential of the country it
00:47:15 already is happening right so uh the the most the countries with the most trust in the world
00:47:22 are the scandinavian countries finland denmark sweden norway and new zealand and canada are
00:47:30 are it's up there right there and maybe so their trust level is about 50 percent and the united
00:47:36 states is somewhat lower but so to me you can put fancy regulations you can make fancy constitutions
00:47:45 but what is really crucial to investment economic development business growth especially in the
00:47:52 let's say the the small business space where there's more innovation more real uh substantive
00:47:57 growth going on that will that relies on trust because a lot of these small businesses they
00:48:02 don't have the the the capacity to hire fancy lawyers or prepare fancy contracts or a plan for
00:48:08 the future that they're just going to survive surviving and they have to be able to trust those
00:48:13 around them and act in a more informal manner and that's where i see the real problem for canada that
00:48:20 uh you're having a more divided society where people just do not trust each other and i hate
00:48:26 to say there's more corruption in government so that infrastructure is becoming less reliable
00:48:34 it goes hand in hand with um so there is a difference we've talked about this before of
00:48:40 difference between multi-ethnic and multicultural where you can have different ethnicities
00:48:46 with the same fundamental beliefs and values and you have a glue that keeps them together
00:48:51 and unified in a way that you don't have when you have pockets of different cultures
00:48:57 all speaking their own language and they have a in-group preference so they're going to stay
00:49:02 together and that nothing fractionates a country more than getting these essentially these these
00:49:10 pockets these little on the bramptons or the uh the the stories of of canada and alberta's not
00:49:19 immune to that given enough time right to like the the amount of it in albertas it's not as critical
00:49:28 as some places in canada but if not for independence now it's or if not for some
00:49:36 provincial control over immigration and or some value first messaging about assimilation this
00:49:44 problem's not going to get better and so this is something i try to reflect on and communicate with
00:49:51 either friends and family that are they feel very nostalgic for canada yeah and but or like they
00:49:58 they love canada and but they can't articulate that the canada that they love is this fictional
00:50:04 place that doesn't really fully exist anymore what they're loving now is not actually canada
00:50:11 it's it's the surface level representation of it it exists in their mind it's propped up by like
00:50:18 anytime you see red or a canadian flag or maple syrup these things invoke that same like it's
00:50:25 this emotional it resonates emotionally but it doesn't relate to the practical reality of canada
00:50:33 And all you have to do is take one of Canada's most beloved and kind of, uh, maybe this is, feels like this is one of Canada's best brands for a while is Tim Hortons.
00:50:49 And how Canadian does it feel when you go and set, like you, you're not even hearing English being spoken.
00:50:56 And so like, not to, not to downplay any of the people just trying to get ahead and trying to make a living, but that represents the, the kind of those.
00:51:08 It's a perfect microcosm of the, uh, of the country.
00:51:11 Nothing sums it up better than just going into your beloved Tim Hortons.
00:51:16 Yeah.
00:51:16 Well, this, this is a fundamental point here.
00:51:19 if our buddha is distinct whether it's the values the way of life the work ethic the
00:51:29 um religious inclinations whatever it is you know we can debate that
00:51:34 it is worth protecting right you know so if if there were nothing special about it there'd be
00:51:42 no point behind alberta independence you're seeking albertans are seeking independence
00:51:47 because they really believe that Alberta has something special.
00:51:52 And if they're clued in,
00:51:56 they realize that distinctiveness is really being lost at a quick rate.
00:52:05 And high trust, or let's say that the community engagement
00:52:10 is one part of Alberta's distinctiveness,
00:52:13 that a sense of uh civic engagement of volunteerism whatever it may be is being lost right now and
00:52:24 you just you know if if Alberta is distinct then just having any random person coming in
00:52:31 will dilute their distinctiveness that's just a basically mathematical reality so it's it is a
00:52:38 It is a sensitive topic, but of course, Albertans, much like Quebecers,
00:52:43 they want to have some, they want to have authority over who joins this distinct community.
00:52:49 And again, Alberta, in my opinion, Alberta actually does have a very distinct
00:52:53 value system and way of life, and that merits protecting. And as I noted in Leduc,
00:53:00 a key element of that is respect for laissez-faire capitalism, for hard work, for
00:53:05 self-sufficiency whatever it may be taking care of oneself and not being dependent and that will 1.00
00:53:12 be lost if there's just an endless supply of foreigners who have no they don't care about 1.00
00:53:18 that that i know about it's just like you say you can't really blame them they just they have no 0.78
00:53:23 tradition of that and the challenge is that the people who really pioneered alberta they were the
00:53:30 toughest people around i mean they literally came across in boats and then had to go across this
00:53:35 very cold and inhospitable landmass and you are enjoying the benefits of their hard work
00:53:44 a century ago and so even my my grandfather he had never driven a car before when he got to
00:53:51 in that case he was up in northern british columbia but he basically um crashed a car
00:53:57 three times he was on this remote indian reserve he went through incredible difficulty to be part
00:54:04 let's say uh growing western canada and he soon moved to uh settle in calgary and that like you
00:54:12 said that distinctive pioneer spirit toughness resilience what you want to call it will be
00:54:17 diluted away or inflated away uh if immigration is is not i don't know addressed correctly yeah
00:54:27 yeah that's the um sorry go ahead please no no just unfortunately
00:54:34 the obviously ottawa has a much different preference when it comes to immigration
00:54:39 and i think they find it easier to dominate the canadian provinces when there is a great
00:54:46 deal of infighting or confusion across the country and not a coherent or cohesive uh
00:54:53 opposition to their rule and that's exactly what alberta is putting up right now that they
00:54:58 are proud of their distinctiveness and they there's at least still some uh unity or coherence
00:55:04 there some community to fight back and resist ottawa's expansion yeah there are lots of
00:55:11 interesting um corporate level studies that have been done you're probably familiar with them about
00:55:16 how you um uh you you tend to um lessen the possibility lessen the likelihood of of uh
00:55:25 uh, offices trying to unionize when you have a diverse mix of, uh, race and genders.
00:55:32 Yeah.
00:55:32 Yeah.
00:55:33 There's Amazon did a famously commissioned a study about that.
00:55:36 Um, yeah.
00:55:37 Yeah.
00:55:38 The, the, the warehouses that were the most, uh, ethnically and rate, like racially diverse 0.97
00:55:43 were the least likely to attempt to unionize cause they were, they were too much. 0.99
00:55:47 They couldn't get together.
00:55:48 You can't form a cohesive.
00:55:49 Yeah, that's right.
00:55:50 Yeah.
00:55:50 Oh, I wasn't aware of that one.
00:55:52 Necessarily even.
00:55:53 Yeah.
00:55:53 It's, it's a, it's fascinating actually. So yeah, there probably are broader, uh, you know,
00:55:58 national implications to that psychology, but yeah, I'm curious what you think, you know,
00:56:03 about the, the, the immigration issue is, is a, you're right that it's a sensitive one.
00:56:08 Uh, and people tend to get, um, you know, get pretty, uh, emotional about it. I'm curious what
00:56:14 you, what you might say, you know, this is a broader question, but to the, to the, maybe the,
00:56:20 the more liberal minded person or, or even a, you know, a very, uh, outward,
00:56:24 you know, very obviously a leftist person who sees the Alberta independence
00:56:28 movement as something fundamentally racist or something fundamentally, um,
00:56:33 you know, you know, of, of which there are lots, you know, what would your,
00:56:38 what might your response be? Cause, cause I, I find like,
00:56:40 I find with these people in our personal lives, James and I,
00:56:43 they're not really thinking about these issues as thoughtfully as,
00:56:47 as we might, because we're in it so deep, you know,
00:56:50 We don't think about the economic implications.
00:56:52 They don't think about the history of the – they don't know about Buffalo province.
00:56:57 Like they don't know about any of this.
00:56:59 So they're approaching it from a very surface level emotional kind of gut reaction like you were mentioning earlier.
00:57:04 What might you say to that type of person to make the case for why this makes sense even for them?
00:57:11 Yeah.
00:57:12 So, I mean, great question, Mike.
00:57:16 I mean, we could talk to a whole new episode on that topic.
00:57:19 But first, anyone who has traveled the world, I've lived in Guatemala, Argentina, Ireland, Canada, the United States, New Zealand, all over the place, Paraguay, Ecuador.
00:57:32 Okay. 0.98
00:57:35 In my opinion, the most meritocratic and least ethnocentric part of the world is the Anglosphere. 0.78
00:57:45 anywhere else you go people are much more openly loyal to their ethnic group than the anglo-saxons
00:57:54 or the anglo-celtic people are the ones who founded alberta
00:57:58 so that's that's to me fundamentally anyone who makes these claims is unfortunately being
00:58:07 propagandized and misled by regime media who have a chip on their shoulder towards
00:58:12 the anglosphere or the the western world because we are the most in favor of meritocracy as opposed
00:58:19 to nepotism and tribal loyalties second if these anglosphere countries or you know canada is one
00:58:29 of these countries of course are so discriminatory and harsh why does everyone want to come to our
00:58:35 countries. Yeah, it's a big one. It is ridiculous. So the these arguments are just so shallow
00:58:44 and weak. I don't know how you can take them seriously. Alberta. Yes, Albertans will prefer
00:58:51 people who side with civil liberties with freedom with meritocracy, right? And so they
00:58:59 They will, yes, they will favor people who contribute to the community who have low crime,
00:59:05 what have you.
00:59:07 But Alberta is not an ethno state.
00:59:11 This is just a fact.
00:59:12 And people who want to hoist this upon the independence movement really are showing they
00:59:19 lack an argument and they're just trying to create one to scare people.
00:59:22 And it's unfair misleading.
00:59:25 And I just think it's really unfortunate, this kind of hollow rhetoric, this kind of
00:59:32 hurling of pejoratives is effective often, unfortunately, but it is inaccurate.
00:59:40 And we've been to countless events, rallies, we've had numerous conversations and I've
00:59:51 the camera out i've been filming what i can and i have not seen a case of an event where like
00:59:56 one independent supporter gave another independent supporter a hard time for being a different
01:00:04 ethnic group right they care that they're there representing the movement trying to build bridges
01:00:11 and trying to spread the word like that matters above everything else in those kind of cases and
01:00:18 you think with all the events that we've been to if this was a problem we would we would be seeing
01:00:24 well first of all it would show up on just random cell phone videos it would be hard to hide it
01:00:29 would be something that like you would have no shortage of evidence of examples and even just
01:00:37 to point to like yeah well is a ethno state necessarily good let's say we had a bunch of like
01:00:45 the thing is you can have a bunch of white people with blue hair and the most marxist ideas and 0.84
01:00:55 that's not going to produce a good society so in that case like okay well what's the skin color 0.93
01:01:00 doing if it's if things are not grounded in shared values it doesn't matter if there's 0.86
01:01:07 homogenous external identifiers at this point yeah you know i don't i don't want to give such
01:01:12 people attacking us even an inch because yes it is true that people from the british isles
01:01:18 especially scotland england uh built or pioneered alberta and then we had more central europeans
01:01:26 come in at a in a later period there's nothing to be ashamed of right do they just hate it i mean
01:01:32 it's just a fact of history so i don't i don't want to give them an inch to attack us and they
01:01:40 have built, yes, like I said, a meritocratic province that promotes competition, open competition
01:01:45 where people gravitate towards. And I realize this is going to come up more and more. So I don't want
01:01:53 anyone to feel at all ashamed of Alberta or Alberta's history. And the truth is Alberta
01:02:00 at the very heart of Alberta is meritocracy and not discrimination. So I think people who do this
01:02:07 again it's it's a cart before the horse scenario with it just looking for any kind of excuse to
01:02:11 beat up on this when it's just not accurate fantastically said i i can't agree more um
01:02:19 maybe james has another question he'd like to ask you i i got i got one kind of in the in the
01:02:24 chamber here that i want you to uh i want you to stake your stake your professional reputation on
01:02:30 this uh what is your going into the final six months uh yeah six months or so of this um
01:02:37 campaign we know you know barring anything ridiculous from happening we know that we're
01:02:42 going to be having a referendum in october yeah make a prediction what do you think is going to
01:02:48 happen what what do you think the result will be what do you think the response you know either way
01:02:53 from from the the movement from the federal government will be um what's kind of your
01:02:58 feeling about about where we're headed okay two things first i do i do think the referendum will
01:03:04 prevail it'll be a narrow majority so between 50 and 55 percent and i think the united states will
01:03:12 provide some level of protection to alberta to avoid any kind of military confrontation with
01:03:20 Canada or Ottawa. And so there is a challenge that about 40% of Albertans are dead against this,
01:03:30 right? They have been propagandized by the CBC. All these pejoratives have worked on them.
01:03:35 And so there's a strong portion of Alberta that it's going to be very hard to persuade them
01:03:40 towards independence. However, we have about 40% now in favor and about 20% on the fence.
01:03:48 And I'm optimistic that a majority of those people on the fence will go for independence when there's a more open campaign and debate.
01:03:57 Why do I think the United States will recognize and defend Alberta?
01:04:02 They don't want some kind of military confrontation on their doorstep or across the fence.
01:04:07 they and further it will be a geopolitical win for the united states that there'll be less power
01:04:15 less financial might in ottawa which is inherently anti-american and more influence in a pro-us or a
01:04:25 close ally so it's alberta independence is a real win for the united states even even as alberta
01:04:32 will remain independent it'll still be a close ally and less of the political influence and
01:04:37 wealth will be going to Ottawa, which is more closely aligning with China, the Chinese communist
01:04:41 party and with the European union. And in terms of the actual time for the negotiation, I, this
01:04:47 is where I must admit, I just can't make a comment on that because I'm not an expert on the, that
01:04:52 legal process. Someone like Keith Wilson would be more qualified to talk about that. Yeah. Well,
01:04:58 And to follow up, post-referendum, do you think that B.C. and the rest of Canada will be so spiteful that they will shoot themselves in the foot to harm themselves just to spite Alberta?
01:05:15 Like, do you think B.C. would restrict pipeline?
01:05:19 Do you think it would escalate?
01:05:21 Or do you think mutual economic interests would align?
01:05:26 Absolutely not.
01:05:27 i think that the the rest of canada or the other canadian provinces they they will see the the
01:05:33 show of strength from alberta if you go into a negotiation like a bunch of wimps oh well
01:05:39 we we want to be good canadians oh they will they will abuse that and exploit it that's what's been
01:05:44 happening for generations that in my view the independence movement is simply just albertans
01:05:48 saying we're not we're not going to be abused anymore we're not going to be exploited anymore
01:05:51 stop stealing from us and the problem is that some albertans still don't seem to realize that
01:05:58 they're being abused and they just just have to wake up and assert themselves the more albertans
01:06:04 assert themselves the stronger uh position they will be when dealing with the rest of
01:06:09 canada or the the remaining canadian provinces and the the truth is that alberta will have many
01:06:15 chips on its side albertans will have obviously control over who goes through in terms of
01:06:19 transportation they will have resource wealth uh canada will have to negotiate so in many ways
01:06:26 alberta will be in a very strong negotiation position negotiating position and my hope too
01:06:31 is that this is maybe a long-term dream but i would love for the borders of this future buffalo
01:06:38 nation right when saskatchewan wants to join alberta do get broadened to have access to either
01:06:43 hope bc or somewhere to have uh ocean access in addition to that and i think that that is
01:06:49 a possibility uh you know there's a famous paper by the frontier center on this of course that
01:06:55 that'll come later but i think it is possible that i don't think canada won't be in a strong
01:07:00 position to negotiate especially if the united states says you cannot impose military intimidation
01:07:06 upon alberta awesome i i uh i tend to agree with you uh i i very much hope you're right
01:07:16 we sort of get a similar kind of response from you know you're not you're not the only person
01:07:21 we've asked that has had a similar response that so that every time i hear it from a new
01:07:26 you know subject matter expert in a different field the more confident i feel so that's that's
01:07:30 really good that that's your that's your assessment of it um fergus i i often like to ask our guests
01:07:36 was there anything that we didn't touch on today that you that you wish we did
01:07:40 no you i mean i obviously really appreciate your show i've listened to a bunch of your
01:07:47 interviews and videos but my my personal view is just that this is a historic time i don't want
01:07:55 people to miss this opportunity and that's why i personally for example i'm trying to get myself
01:07:59 up to alberta and be settled for this campaign period as soon as i can that this is not just
01:08:05 another campaign or another election this is real history and this will be talked about for
01:08:12 generations to come i encourage people to be a part of this and i think that the incredible
01:08:18 let's say moral high ground is with alberta and especially as a flag bearer for freedom
01:08:25 so that's my main message that this is an incredibly important moment in history that
01:08:32 I encourage people to get involved with, lest they be just an observer.
01:08:38 And also at the same time, don't doubt your own individual capacity to make a difference.
01:08:43 You guys are making a difference.
01:08:45 The number of people who actually engage in the political realm is a tiny fraction of the population.
01:08:50 Most people are just passive or apathetic or what have you.
01:08:54 A few people are really making a difference.
01:08:57 And so I would not lessen or doubt anyone's capacity, even if you turn up to these events, just another person or another dozen people make a difference.
01:09:07 So it's amazing how in a future country of 5 million people, maybe just about 10,000 people are going to make this happen.
01:09:16 That's awesome. It's so cool to think about.
01:09:18 Fergus Hodgson, do you have any events coming up? Are you planning on being back in the province anytime soon?
01:09:23 I will be back
01:09:25 in about a month
01:09:25 but no events
01:09:26 organized yet
01:09:27 so
01:09:28 okay
01:09:28 yeah
01:09:29 keep us posted
01:09:31 when you come
01:09:32 so
01:09:32 yeah we gotta get together
01:09:33 when you come
01:09:34 we were fortunate
01:09:34 to catch you in Leduc
01:09:35 and we're glad
01:09:37 that we got a chance
01:09:38 to meet you
01:09:39 so
01:09:39 thank you guys
01:09:40 we'll follow you around
01:09:40 and video you
01:09:41 wherever you go
01:09:42 cheers
01:09:45 I hope you guys
01:09:46 are speaking to us
01:09:46 thanks for your time man
01:09:46 no problem
01:09:48 cheers
01:09:48 really appreciate it
01:09:49 cheers
01:09:53 Transcription by CastingWords