In this episode, we talk with Michael Wagner, an independent researcher and writer with a PhD in Political Science from the University of Alberta, about the history of Alberta's independence movement and how it came to life. We talk about the founding of the Western Standard Columns, the formation of the WCC, and the challenges facing the independence movement today.
00:00:00.000In the eyes of many Albertans, you know, Trudeau was attacking us with the National Energy Program, and he was bringing in this charter without the property rights, and they saw those things as related.
00:00:07.960The National Energy Program was the main fuel for the fire of Albert independence at the time, but definitely the charter of rights, the constitutional changes was also part of it.
00:00:14.600And a little bit of background knowledge on the history is so important because so many people will look at the, you know, the 2026, 2025 independence movement and go, this is just a reaction to, you know, you guys hated Justin Trudeau.
00:00:26.720But they don't realize how much effort, you know, has gone on over the decades to try and even up the system.
00:00:32.580We've never had this level of support before.
00:00:35.080So we have people for the very first time in their lives are committed to Alberta independence.
00:00:39.020The harder the pushback, the more there is a risk of Ottawa creating a shared origin story for more and more Albertans.
00:02:15.940like i was in high school in calgary when the national energy program was introduced by you
00:02:21.120know pierre trudeau was re-elected in 1980 then a few months later brought in the national energy
00:02:25.000program and and i had been interested you know as a young person in politics but mostly in
00:02:29.900international politics originally you know the cold war was going on and those kind of military
00:02:33.980things interested me i had not been interested in domestic politics until the national energy
00:02:38.120program came in and like my family was not involved in the oil industry so that didn't
00:02:42.920affect us personally you know that that harshly but just the community that i was in in calgary
00:02:47.700in high school you know a lot of people were affected by by what was happening with the
00:02:51.460national energy program and there was just something about it that triggered me like
00:02:54.420you know i i thought this was a an injustice being done to alberta and to my community
00:02:59.200and so i started you know cheering for the independence movement and then um when gordon
00:03:04.040kessler was elected in that by-election in february 1982 that was the first time a western
00:03:08.400separatist had ever been elected and i was just so excited about that that i i joined that party
00:03:12.240right away I was actually only 16 at the time so I couldn't even vote and I think long story short
00:03:16.820then Peter Lougheed later that year in November called an early election because he could see
00:03:21.400that the WCC Western Canada concept was growing very rapidly they called an early election kind
00:03:26.380of to cut it off at the knees and it worked for him because even though the party got close to 12
00:03:30.480percent of the vote uh provincially that Western Canada concept they didn't win any MLAs that time
00:03:35.000and the one that they had was lost um but I was that was the first election I ever participated
00:03:38.940it in like handing out pamphlets because I was 17 by then but I wasn't old enough to vote right
00:03:42.920so I couldn't even vote but I felt very engaged and it was very important to me but we lost but
00:03:48.060so I stayed a little bit involved in that party for the next few years off and on and but you know
00:03:52.940what actually killed the WCC in Alberta was the creation of the Reform Party by Preston Manning
00:03:57.320because you know by the late 1980s the Reform Party you know Preston Manning had started building
00:04:02.600that and their idea was the West wants in and he wanted to like he said in one of his books he
00:04:06.660wanted to take the energy of the independence movement and put it into a movement that would
00:04:09.960help to build Canada and strengthen it rather than tear it apart so his idea was the west wants in
00:04:14.120let's send people to Ottawa who can make the changes that we need for so the west's voice
00:04:18.200could be heard you know within Canada and so that was a very very convincing and very credible
00:04:23.700alternative and so I think just about everybody in the WCC joined the reform party in fact
00:04:28.040one of the guys who was leader of the WCC when I was involved there was a guy named Jack Ramsey
00:04:32.020he would later become a reform party member of parliament from cameras so like a lot of these
00:04:37.560people who had been involved in independence got involved in the reform party and that kind of you
00:04:41.420know took the energy of that of that movement so to make a long story short by then i wasn't
00:04:45.460particularly interested in independence very few people were and i wasn't involved again at all
00:04:50.360until uh in 2009 i wrote a book the first history of the alberta independence movement you know we
00:04:55.200call it alberta separatism i call that you know some people don't like that word anymore but
00:04:58.820That's what we called ourselves before, separatists.
00:05:01.500And so actually by 2008, you know, I'd seen by that time in researching other topics that there was a lot of material like in magazines and so on from that period in the early 80s when the separatist movement was strong.
00:05:13.940And I thought, you know, someone needs to write a book about this because I thought if someone, if a leftist wrote a book about it, he would, you know, misportray it and not show the true, you know, motivations and so on.
00:05:24.260And I thought, well, if someone who's sympathetic to it was to write the book,
00:05:27.380someone who had been involved, I could really show it as it was
00:05:30.120from the perspective of someone who'd have been involved.
00:10:23.320Yeah, it definitely helps when being able to explore these ideas in a way that doesn't happen in isolated pockets. And if we're just looking back at the 120 year journey of Alberta itself, it feels like that was born out of a will for wanting the West was wanting in to confederation.
00:10:47.500So that's a thread that's consistent over this period.
00:10:52.260And there are some people that will mention separation even in 1905, but it doesn't seem like that was the case because there was a will to want to make it work and Albertans wanted the same kind of deal.
00:11:07.380They wanted a province that had the same kind of, let it be, resource rights, control over taxation and everything as the existing provinces in confederation, which didn't happen until the 1930s anyway.
00:11:24.920So there was already a lag period on the West wanted in and they're like, okay, well, maybe you will get what you want. And if you kick the can down the road, that kind of reduces some of the momentum that could boil up, if not for something that is able to fizzle it out.
00:11:45.080So that's a cycle that we're seeing over time. And so you're describing that it wasn't until the 80s that this kicking the can down the road seemed to lose a little bit of its effect. And now that we're into further down the road, people are starting to realize we're running out of road. Is that an accurate kind of description of this?
00:14:59.160Yeah, I was going to ask you, you know, maybe for a kind of a, if you could give a broad, like a, like a reader's digest overview, because we've, we've got a lot of, um, uh, subscribers on our channel and followers on, on, on X who are, you know, maybe in the, I guess you'd classify in the millennial or even, even some into the Gen Z kind of demographic of the, in their twenties and thirties who they're interested in Alberta independence, but they maybe don't, you know, have, have, uh, as, as a broad of a
00:15:29.140history basis what actually consolidated that movement in the 80s and that's something that
00:15:33.760you're very knowledgeable about and very passionate about so could you kind of give them um i don't
00:15:39.340know just just give them like what what were you like in the same sort of thing that we're feeling
00:15:43.920now in our 30s and 20s what were you guys feeling in your 20s and 30s in the 80s um well like like
00:15:51.700for me um like the trudeau thing was really big i mean it was big in the in the um minds of many
00:15:57.400many Albertans, you know, because he'd done so much to Alberta.
00:16:00.360But if I could just go back a little bit, like, you know, as James mentioned, like Westerners
00:16:05.740and Albertans, you know, have felt kind of conflict with Central Canada going back right
00:16:09.960to the very, from the very beginning, right?
00:16:11.440So, I mean, and part of this is because in any large country, when you've got a large
00:16:14.880country with different regions, their interests are going to sometimes conflict.
00:16:17.980That's just kind of an inevitable thing, right?
00:16:19.580And so, all throughout the first few decades, you know, there were different conflicts in
00:16:24.060Canada, but Canada sort of worked, even though the system wasn't perfect.
00:16:27.400And we had conflicts and stuff, every country will, right?
00:16:30.560But we were able to kind of muddle through one way or another.
00:16:34.160And then in the 1960s, that began to change,
00:17:04.260And that kind of fueled his constitutional changes in the Charter of Rights.
00:17:07.660Like part of the Charter of Rights idea was to tie the country more centrally together so that all Canadians would look to this one particular document, you know, in Ottawa where the Supreme Court was in Ottawa.
00:17:19.160That would be, as Canadians, we'd all have that shared identity of looking to the Charter as the source of our rights.
00:17:24.480So that was kind of part of his agenda was to make the country tied together more tightly.
00:17:30.580That's kind of the opposite of what a big country needs.
00:17:33.260Like a big country, like a federal system, you want to have the provinces with as much power as possible because the purpose of federalism is local communities can rule themselves.
00:17:42.760You know, we give the federal government, you know, responsibilities like foreign affairs and military, you know, banking and finance, stuff that's needed for the whole country.
00:17:51.760But then other things we can leave to the provinces like the resources and education, things like that. And so if you have a truly federal system with decentralization, and the provinces are powerful, you can keep the country together that way. But when you try and tie it together tightly like Trudeau did, then you get, you know, some of the regions, some of the regions and provinces are, are don't like that in Quebec, especially like Quebec never liked that. And Alberta too, you know, even, you know, Danielle Smith likes to try and emphasize, you know, our constitutional rights and responsibilities.
00:18:21.760responsibilities as a province. And so the kind of just the general picture I'm trying to point is
00:18:26.200a paint is that it was Trudeau's desire to centralize Canada more, that is part of the
00:18:31.740root of the problems that we have with the different regions, because, you know, we're too
00:18:35.960big of a country to try and tie together centrally, we need to have provincial responsibilities,
00:18:40.920like we need a decentralized federation, where the provinces are powerful. And then they can,0.81
00:18:45.700you know, local communities can run their own, you know, with if Quebec wants to have everything
00:18:50.440primarily in French they can do that you know what I mean and if we don't want French we don't
00:18:53.600have to have that it's up to our local communities to decide and not for a centralized government and
00:18:58.420of course one of Pierre Trudeau's first major programs was to bring in you know compulsory
00:19:02.920bilingualism for all of Canada you know it was the official languages act and that was actually
00:19:07.020the spark that first sparked the first talk of Alberta independence like even before the oil
00:19:11.380thing there's people out here who just felt they were having French shoved down their throats you
00:19:14.920know what I mean like I mean and again it was trying to make rather than having French and
00:19:18.620Quebec and English out here, let's have both languages right across the country. It was kind
00:19:22.060of like homogenize the country, right? Tie it together that way, rather than let the regions
00:19:26.740have their own specialties, their own ways of doing things and stuff. So in my view, it was
00:19:33.080Trudeau's desire to centralize the country that's at the root of a lot of the problems that we've
00:19:36.860had since then. And of course, the Charter was part of that. And there's different reasons why
00:19:41.100the Charter won. I think it's too centralizing like that. And also, you know, the provinces had
00:19:45.700to give up some of their powers in order for the charter to be to be accepted in the constitution
00:19:50.260before the charter we had the bill of rights from 1960 the bill of rights was just a federal
00:19:54.840piece of legislation it only applied to the federal government because the federal government
00:19:58.260couldn't you know pass legislation that would of that kind that would apply to all the provinces
00:20:02.700but trudeau wanted it in the constitution so all the provinces would have to be under the charter
00:20:07.820if it was introduced into the constitution and the provinces actually resisted that
00:20:13.500Trudeau first proposed that in 1968 when he was Justice Minister.
00:20:17.400And so it was several years of him advocating for the Charter before it actually came into effect
00:20:22.080because there were various, many premiers were opposed to the Charter.
00:20:25.960And there were other scholars who would produce papers or give talks about why the Charter should not be adopted.
00:20:31.720And part of it was, it does, I mean, this was part of Trudeau's agenda too,
00:20:36.140was to transfer more powers to the judges.
00:20:38.360That's actually mentioned in his original proposal.
00:20:40.720because the charter gives power to the judges they never had before and of course we have
00:20:44.640you know so many policies and laws that have been struck down since the charter came into effect you
00:20:48.800know in 1985 or so so there's just the charter does so many things that i think um are harmful
00:20:54.400to canada and i think it's part of you know the root part of the root of the problems that we have
00:20:59.440so actually i'm probably just drifted from your question there sorry no i don't think so actually
00:21:04.320i think that's that's actually really fascinating insight and i i couldn't help but think like how
00:21:09.520How interesting is it that in this quest to centralize power and authority in Ottawa as a, you know, I won't, you know, mind read motivations into him.
00:21:20.980But, um, and then culminating in his son, you know, 30 years late, 40 years later, um, getting to the point where actually I think probably the, the main feeling that most Albertans have nowadays is that rather than being so centralized, everything feels it's completely opposite of that.
00:21:42.660so decentralized there we we have a no national identity we don't have a uh you know canada's
00:21:48.260a post-national state we're a a cultural uh mosaic and and you know we're we're welcoming
00:21:54.660to newcomers from everywhere and so much so that it feels like everything is diluted to the point
00:21:58.900of just not existing anymore yeah yeah like like i i say in some of my talks the trudeau's really
00:22:05.460had it out against uh our historical canadian identity you know like our historical identity
00:22:10.740like we were proud like of the RCMP like when I was a kid the RCMP was like one of those things
00:22:15.060that Canadians were proud of like this would be the best police service in the world as far as we're
00:22:18.460concerned we're proud of that we were proud of the Canadian military and you know talking about
00:22:22.300you know the achievements in World War I and World War II there's just kind of this identity
00:22:25.820that tied us together but um as you mentioned you know the post-national state idea that's in a
00:22:30.700interview that Justin Trudeau gave with the New York Times shortly after he became Prime Minister
00:22:35.280he told the New York Times that Canada has no core identity you know that's what he mentioned
00:23:07.020I considered Pierre Trudeau to be like an evil genius because he was as intelligent and as
00:23:15.820determined a prime minister as we ever had in all of our history. He was brilliant and he was
00:23:21.640hardworking. He had all the personal virtues. If he'd been on the good side, he could have made
00:23:26.100this into a better country, but instead he was going in the wrong direction. You think of Johnny
00:23:31.500McDonald as the founder of Canada. Johnny McDonald brought in his constitution that
00:23:34.860created the original version of Canada. And then you have Pierre Trudeau bringing in a new
00:23:38.560constitution and, you know, creating a different country in 1982. So it's like our 1982 was like
00:23:44.780a seminal year for Canada. Like we changed as a country from being one kind of a country to
00:23:49.200being another kind of country. And that was because of the way Trudeau was able to change
00:23:52.500our constitution and bring in the charter of rights and freedoms. Yeah. And it does dilute
00:23:58.320over time and um that's a difficult conversation with some people is they hold on so tightly to
00:24:05.420this idea of feeling canadian and then if you try to ask them what it is to be canadian they will
00:24:11.200usually default to a surface level description or the not american approach or the we're nice
00:24:17.800without actually going any deeper than that um i have wondered though it almost seems like
00:24:26.240this centralization and this putting more power into the federal control seems to align with
00:24:35.340those who view collectivism as a virtue and who trust a large government to take more control of
00:24:45.380their lives. And it's kind of ironic because that's only possible right now for that to really
00:24:53.300exist in this forum because with so many that are left-leaning, they have trust in a left-leaning
00:25:00.840large government because it's the same team as them. I imagine they might have a slightly
00:25:09.320different view of the potential downsize to a large government if the conservatives have been
00:25:16.920in power for 10 years and passed policy after policy that didn't align with their worldview.
00:25:23.300So, that feels like it's still a hurdle to the independence movement in Alberta right now, that there are public sector workers, there are those who are left-leaning collectivists, I'm going to use the word woke, like a neo-Marxist type view of oppression dynamics in society.
00:25:48.300And they want Canada to continue being this compassionate place with open borders for all to exist in. And that's going to be a tough sell if you're talking about decentralizing power, giving more power to provinces.
00:26:03.020I don't think they even fully understand like how confederation was supposed to be set up with the federal government being on equal footing with provinces.
00:26:13.580They're viewing the federal government as a parent and the provinces as a as a child.
00:26:19.280So my question to you is, what seed, if we're going to plant a seed, to try to shift some of these kind of deeply seeded thoughts, how would you start a conversation with these people to kind of get them thinking?
00:26:38.200like when i'm talking about alberta independence questions like i i like to focus on history
00:26:43.980and i focus on how um actually when when pierre trudeau first went after alberta in the early
00:26:49.7401970s like some of the backstory to this is you know alberta discovered oil about 1947 at laduk
00:26:54.280and at that time you know that was very helpful like up until that time alberta was one of the
00:26:58.160poorest provinces in canada so the discovery of oil it brought us up kind of to a middle level
00:27:02.940like it didn't make us really rich because you know in the 1950s and 60s like the price of oil
00:27:07.160was about three dollars a barrel or something like that. So it was an excellent resource to have
00:27:10.460and it certainly contributed to Alberta's prosperity. But it wasn't until 1973, there was
00:27:15.140a war in the Middle East in October of 1973. The price of oil skyrocketed from about three dollars
00:27:19.940a barrel to about twelve dollars a barrel in just a few weeks. And this brought on what was called
00:27:23.820the energy crisis in the 1970s. Now at this time, Pierre Trudeau decided to keep the price of oil
00:27:29.400within Canada low. So we put an artificially low price for oil sold within Canada. So when Alberta
00:27:34.540sold its oil within Canada, we didn't get the money we should have gotten because the price
00:27:39.880was so low. Alberta was already exporting oil to the United States. Trudeau brought in an export
00:27:44.260tax on oil. It was the first time in Canadian history there was an export tax on a provincial
00:27:48.280resource because it was a provincial resource that should have been up to Alberta. But the
00:27:52.700federal government was taking a huge percentage of the revenue that Alberta was getting from
00:27:56.440selling oil to the United States. So whether we sold our oil within Canada or out, the federal
00:28:00.940government was cashing in on our oil in the way it wasn't supposed to. Our premier at the time
00:28:05.860was Peter Lougheed. Famously, Peter Lougheed fought Trudeau throughout the 1970s when it was
00:28:10.180called the energy wars. Peter Lougheed called that export tax on oil something like the greatest
00:28:14.860ripoff in Confederation's history because we've never had that before and we weren't supposed to
00:28:19.520have that kind of thing. I'm mentioning this because what happened to Alberta in the 1970s
00:28:25.740is unprecedented in Canadian history that no federal government ever attacked a province
00:28:30.560the way Pierre Trudeau attacked Alberta in the 1970s into the 1980s. Like, it's not like the
00:28:35.360federal government sometimes fights against one province and takes resources and another one.
00:28:39.200This is unprecedented in Canadian history before or since, like from the 1970s to the 1980s. Alberta
00:28:43.560was not treated properly. It was very mistreated for a long period of time. And of course, the
00:28:48.740National Energy Program came in in 1980, which made things even worse. And that hammered Alberta's
00:28:53.360economy you know businesses went under and people lost their jobs in fact last year when i was
00:28:57.600speaking i ended up talking to three different people who claim they knew of people or personally
00:29:02.480knew people who committed suicide during the national energy program because the financial
00:29:05.780devastation you know what i mean like that's unprecedented in canadian history like was never
00:29:09.360like it's one thing for an economy you know provincial economy to be devastated by some
00:29:14.040kind of international event or a natural disaster but this was a deliberate policy on the federal
00:29:18.600government to hammer us you know what i mean our government did that to us so um that led so that's
00:29:24.900kind of you know what led to the upsurge in support for separation at that time right but
00:29:28.760then comes the reform party and with as i mentioned earlier uh preston manning had a great idea let's
00:29:33.360elect our guys to ottawa and tell them what we need to do and we can make those changes in ottawa
00:29:37.300so that our voice as westerners can be heard within canada then we can feel that we're a full
00:29:41.780part of canada actually like james mentioned historically that's really the sentiment that
00:29:45.840had out here is we're not being heard we want to be heard in there so the west wants in was kind of
00:29:49.680a like a perfect summary of what albertans had wanted for decades and for generations
00:29:54.800but then you know we elected in alberta we elected substantial numbers of reform party mps
00:29:59.200in 93 and 97 like almost all of our mps were reform party and some of the other western
00:30:03.520provinces elected some too but what but they were kind of basically ignored you know in ottawa they
00:30:08.160were not taken seriously they were seen as just a regional party with regional interests you know
00:30:11.760know what I mean? So the concerns that we had were dismissed, just regional concerns, who cares
00:30:16.120about you, right? Now, part of the Reform Party too, but partly separate, was the Tripoli Senate
00:30:19.800movement, which started by early 1980s, because, you know, Canada's Senate right now is still not
00:30:24.640elected, right? It's appointed by the Prime Minister, and it's regionally disadvantageous
00:30:30.000to the West, like we're not fairly represented there. So the Senate doesn't work for us at all.
00:30:33.940So this idea came up of a Tripoli Senate, that would be a Senate where the senators are elected,
00:30:38.200and there's an equal number from each province and they have effective powers now a senate like
00:30:42.540that it's like an american style senate right so that would give western provinces power so that
00:30:47.040our voice could be heard in the national government and so this became a real big thing the triple e
00:30:50.540senate movement there was a committee for the triple e senate and actually our premier in the
00:30:55.160late 80s don getty he was a full supporter of the triple e senate idea and in fact he held
00:31:00.380canada's very first senate election i think that was october of 1989 like the prime minister of
00:31:05.300retains power to appoint senators but we'd have an election and recommend to the prime minister
00:31:12.100the person who wins the election as the one to be appointed and so um a guy named stan rogers or
00:31:16.580stan waters from the reform party he won and brian maroney in fact appointed him to the senate so
00:31:21.380that was canada's very first elected senator in history right and so i'm just trying to convey
00:31:26.180the idea of the momentum that the triple e senate movement had at that time because alberta could
00:31:30.100hold these elections and recommend that the winner of the election be um pointed to senate and
00:31:35.860stephen harper did appoint some of those to send as well so we're trying to get the senate reform
00:31:39.780as westerners but then uh but then in in 2014 um to make a long story short there was a supreme
00:31:45.780court decision that uh well stephen harper as prime minister was trying to get changes done
00:31:50.020to the senate through legislation in the house of commons in the senate the supreme court ruled
00:31:53.380that he that none of those changes that he wanted could be done without a constitutional amendment
00:31:57.620now in canada constitutional amendment is incredibly difficult you know to the point
00:32:01.860of being impossible so that shut the door on on senate reform any uh possibility of senate
00:32:06.820reform for the west so our two main efforts to get our voice heard in ottawa the reform party
00:32:12.180on senate reform and both time both times the doors just slammed in our face and we're not
00:32:16.020interested they're not interested in any kind of changes so i like to bring that up when i'm trying
00:32:19.700to convince people because i'm trying to a lot of people say well sure things might not be good but
00:32:23.860let's just make changes in Canada and then we can you know then it'll be okay but we've tried so
00:32:28.420hard like that's my main argument as Albertans we've tried for decades to get changes so that
00:32:33.220our voice could be heard and they don't do anything they won't even like incrementally
00:32:37.060give us a little bit of something it's just no we're not interested right so so I say you know
00:32:42.100independence is our last chance we've tried everything else you know what I mean we've tried
00:32:45.940to fix Canada tried to fix it at the institution there's an institutional level with the Senate
00:32:50.340We've tried to fix it at the political level with Reform Party, but nobody's interested out there of, you know, helping us in any way.
00:32:56.280And so if we become independent, then, you know, we've got a government that represents us and, you know, we'll get the kind of representation that we need and we can get the political leadership that we need to do what's best for Alberta rather than, you know, being ruled by politicians elected 3,000 kilometers away who are doing what's best for Montreal and Toronto.
00:35:51.800Let's just wait for another year or two.
00:35:53.120We'll have an election and it'll change.
00:35:54.780But then with Mark Carney winning kind of unexpectedly with the turn of events, you know, because of Trump and so on, that really triggered a lot of people to be convinced of supporting independence for the very first time.
00:36:08.860And actually, going back to the 2019 election, that also was a very big election because that was actually just after Tristan Trudeau's first term.
00:36:17.760By then, he was really coming down on Alberta.
00:36:20.220And so by 2019, a lot of people were looking for change and hoping for Andrew Scheer to win.
00:36:23.800And because Trudeau won again in 2019, that led to the surge of what was called the Wagsit movement.
00:36:29.800So Wagsit movement, in the aftermath of that election, the Wagsit movement had some very, very big meetings like in Edmonton, Calgary and Red Deer at least with hundreds and hundreds of people.
00:36:40.560that was kind of like the first initial strong resurgence of the independence movement because
00:36:45.860of you know people were understanding that justin trudeau's policies were hurting alberta but they
00:36:50.740were waiting for that 2019 federal election thinking that the conservatives could save us
00:36:54.520and when they couldn't you know that brought in a lot of new people into the movement and then
00:36:58.4202021 was a little bit different the federal election because of the you know the covid stuff
00:37:02.060was really big then that was more prominent than the uh fight over alberta's energy uh but then
00:37:07.240And again, say people were expecting Parapol Yev to win and Mark Carney wins.
00:37:10.980And for a lot of people, that was just, that's the straw that broke the camel's back, right?
00:37:15.980So the elections do have a big impact.
00:37:17.820In fact, I mean, it's the federal liberals, the federal liberal party is the biggest sales force for the Alberta independence movement and always has been.
00:37:26.100Because, you know, people like me, like I talk to people, I write books, I write articles and stuff, and maybe I can convince some people.
00:37:32.200but when the liberals get reelected or they bring in one of these policies that convinces
00:37:36.200thousands of people in one day they could they they're the ones who do the sales job for us
00:37:40.720basically yeah it's uh marty marty up north we're talking with him and he said he could
00:37:47.800like on days he got more signatures it was usually coincided with some policy change coming out so
00:37:55.200He could see the one-to-one correlation in real time.
00:38:01.180So, yeah, it seems like there's some people that they're already convinced by independence.
00:38:09.080There's some people who are on the fence, and those are the people that are more swayed when there's an ebb and flow of the movement growing.
00:38:17.820And then there's people that are going to dig in, and ideologically, they're never going to shift.
00:38:22.620um and and we've seen the movement ebb and flow and it feels like in 2026 it is a little bit
00:38:30.940different we still don't know if what this number is actually going to be and a clear majority is
00:38:38.580still a difficult thing to achieve when the status quo is easy to vote for because the unknown is
00:38:48.400very scary. Uncertainty is not what somebody wants to jump into if their lives are already so
00:38:55.440busy and chaotic. And I feel like the more overwhelming the world is, the less brave
00:39:02.560people are to push against the grain in something that drastic, unless it gets to a point,
00:39:10.120reaches a breaking point, then people want that change.
00:42:05.620And there, there are things, sorry, James, that, um,
00:42:08.140you know, they, they say that there are, there are things
00:42:11.140worse than losing, you know, sometimes, uh, you know,
00:42:13.900losing can, uh, can help, uh, um, you know, consolidate
00:42:17.860a movement even, even more for, for the next try.
00:42:20.420But, um, I do wonder, yeah, I'm sort of 50, 50 on that.
00:42:24.340I do wonder if perhaps the federal government will respond with further punishment, you know, for Alberta for embarrassing them on the national and international stage.
00:42:37.860Although I do wonder as well if, you know, I've often joked with people that like, you know, this is not true, but I joke that like, you know, I'd be happy if Alberta got, you know, 10% of the consideration that Quebec gets in federal politics, you know.
00:42:51.040But I wonder though, if, if a say, say the independence referendum gets a 40% vote or 45%, something like this, like just shy of a, of a, of a majority.0.91
00:43:01.600I do wonder if the, if the federal conservative party at least would respond with, um, at least making a show of, you know, running candidates in Alberta that are sympathetic to Alberta interests rather than running, you know, floor crossers in, in, in Edmonton South.0.62
00:43:21.040Actually, I was going to say, sorry, go ahead.
00:43:25.480No, I just, one of the things I want to throw in here in terms of what could happen with the referendum is one of the things Alberta independence movement has always lacked is a real credible leader.
00:43:35.400Like this is one of the things that was a real turning point for Quebec is, you know, by the 60s, they had all kinds of separatist groups going, but they were divided and they didn't have a leader.
00:49:10.540The assumption on that is that if Alberta leaves, the rest of Canada or B.C. would be vindictive and they would they would shoot themselves in their own like they would harm themselves just to spite Alberta in the process, which I think ties into this this rhetoric.
00:49:31.160So do you think that rhetoric will warm up at all, or do you think we're stuck in this kind of combative us-versus-them kind of atmosphere?
00:49:49.400Yeah, like I think for now we're stuck in that kind of combative atmosphere.
00:49:52.440As you mentioned, you described that very well, you know, the comparison with Quebec.
00:49:56.260You know, I think there used to be a slogan,
00:50:23.860But you never know, like this can change.
00:50:25.340It could change if we got a leader, depending on what the leader was like.
00:50:29.580And it could also change, like, if we're getting closer to the referendum and we're getting really good numbers, polling like we could pull out, you never know.
00:50:36.200That might cause a rethink among people, and it might change their attitude.
00:50:39.760So right now, we're definitely on the negative side of things, and it could stay that way, but there's the possibility of something changing.
00:50:47.060And if we do become independent, though, like you said, you know, people are thinking that other parts of Canada are going to rather,
00:50:53.080they'd rather shoot themselves in the foot than, you know, work with us. And I don't know that,
00:50:57.960for me, that doesn't make sense. Like, would you, you know, take a lower paying job just so you
00:51:02.500could, you know, politically spite someone, you know what I mean? Like, you know, most people are
00:51:06.520going to do what's best for themselves economically. I mean, there will be always, you know, a certain
00:51:10.980percentage of people that are just nasty and are going to be nasty. But I think if Alberta became0.97
00:51:16.680independent, I think BC would be willing to negotiate with us good terms for both sides.
00:51:21.780Like that just, that just makes sense when both sides are benefiting from an economic agreement, that kind of makes sense.
00:51:27.200You know, if they wanted to cut us off, we can cut them off and, and both people in both communities are going to lose money and be worse off, you know?
00:51:34.680And so it's just not very rational, but I guess with politics, not everything is rational, I guess.
00:51:40.260But my view would be, is there more likely to be reasonable than unreasonable?
00:51:44.660Cause it would work out best for everybody if they were reasonable and we could make good agreements.
00:51:48.700yeah it's sort of like uh when we you know we've had long drawn out discussions with people about
00:51:56.060how like you know well actually according to this statute of this you know subsection of this like
00:52:01.300Alberta actually can't do and it's like it just it further reinforces why this is necessary you
00:52:05.920know it's the same thing here it's like oh you know really you you just you know you view us as1.00
00:52:10.620a bunch of silly rednecks and we're just we're all so stupid and you don't okay well I you know0.99
00:52:15.240I guess we'll leave then and like, you know, disabuse you of the problem that, you know,1.00
00:52:19.120you're so, uh, you're so concerned about here. So yeah, I, I tend to agree with you. I mean,
00:52:23.280I think that a lot of people, when they're speaking emotionally on this issue, which it's,
00:52:27.380I don't actually think it's that emotional of an issue. I think, uh, uh, media rhetoric and,
00:52:32.880and, and how politicians from, you know, federal, federalist politicians talk about it. And,
00:52:37.560and to be honest, even, um, you know, people within our own independence movement,
00:52:41.380you know speak on certain issues they tend to up the the emotion to a level that it may not
00:52:46.380necessarily be helpful uh i i think primarily it is a business decision it's an economic decision
00:52:52.860and i think that when people realize that this is not a zero-sum game this is actually a very firmly
00:52:59.720a non-zero-sum game where if everybody benefits from something you know we can we can find a way
00:53:05.000to work out the details you know so i i kind of tend to share your optimism there i do wonder
00:53:09.180do you um and i don't want to put you on the spot though i kind of do do you have a uh an idea in
00:53:15.600the back of your mind of like who that person might be to spearhead the movement to kind of
00:53:20.120take us over the finish line i kind of do but am i i don't know if i want to well i mean i've been
00:53:26.160really impressed by keith wilson lately i think a lot of people have so i can't help but say that
00:53:30.300i mean he he just speaks so clearly he's so smart i mean he just seems to hit all the bases you know
00:53:36.000i mean um he's very reasonable and so um i mean so i'm hopeful for him he's like he's emerged more
00:53:45.360than someone other like there's other there's guys in the movement that i know like that are
00:53:48.560prominent that are really good guys you know what i mean but some there's just something about keith
00:53:52.640wilson that people that appeals to people because as you know just in scuttlebutt talk among people
00:53:57.680people are looking keith wilson he's just emerged recently and now he's quite prominent and um
00:54:02.640And yeah, like I said, he just, he seems to kind of encapsulate the kind of person that we need for this movement. So I'm hoping for that, but I mean, who knows, maybe somebody else would come forward too.
00:54:14.340Yeah. And it's almost that I think he's been hesitant to, like, he doesn't, from what he's said even last year, he doesn't want to be a leader. So he's just trying to further the message.
00:54:31.560My wife said that, you know, she's heard that he doesn't want to be a leader.
00:54:34.600And I said, well, that's what makes him qualified.
00:54:36.880Yeah, but he's cutting through the noise.
00:54:40.920And then he has the knowledge base and the understanding across multiple, like obviously as the constitutional law side.
00:54:52.520But he's worked within businesses and land and titles and he understands all that.
00:54:58.940And this is exactly what we're finding with independence is it can be an intellectually exhausting thing to talk about for just the average person because you unpack one area and now you're talking about, well, what is the nature of confederation or what does it mean to be this and that?
00:55:19.140And it's never just a single topic, like it unfolds into many things. And to be a leader, you need to be able to pivot and navigate each of these areas with precision and almost be a deep generalist in that sense of not so hyper specialized that you are blind to everything outside of that specialty.
00:55:45.200You need that, um, a systems level understanding across multiple domains.
00:56:00.380Actually, I was, I was almost hoping, I knew you weren't going to say it, but I was almost hoping that like you were going to say like, oh, you know, maybe when her term as premier is up, maybe Daniel Smith might, you know, take a firm stance on something.
00:56:14.080but I don't know what your thoughts on, uh, on her are necessarily.
00:56:18.000Well, I mean, like if you compare politicians in Canada, like she'd be probably my favorite,
00:56:23.380I guess, you know, you know, if you just do a comparison, cause I can't think of anybody
00:56:26.720I like better, but like, I'm not, like I don't, I'm not a rah, rah, rah, Daniel Smith supporter.
00:56:31.360And I've, you know, I've heard from people conflicting accounts of what she really believes
00:59:49.820It's still not something that everybody will discuss to something where it's a socially acceptable thing to talk about.
00:59:57.400It's socially acceptable to identify with that you don't have social backlash or it's there's a critical mass where any movement, if it grows to enough, it just embeds itself in the culture and or the collective consciousness.
01:00:13.540is. And that will be an interesting threshold. And I don't know when that might be.
01:00:20.680Well, actually, since you brought that up, that's an interesting thought because
01:00:23.620I'd say, even if the referendum is not successful, like you say, we got 40% and we lose,
01:00:28.280the political culture of Alberta has already been changed. In a sense, we've never had this
01:00:32.800level of support before. So we have people for the very first time in their lives are committed
01:00:36.940to Alberta independence. Now, even if the referendum fails, these people have thought
01:00:42.880about it seriously before and committed to it they might backtrack from it but it's still part
01:00:46.680of who they are and who they've been you know what i mean so that this part of alberta this idea of
01:00:51.280alberta will be a bigger part of our political culture even if we lose the referendum like i
01:00:55.740mentioned earlier you know with the national energy program that changed the support level
01:00:59.700of alberta independence you know from single digit to double digit and it never went back to single
01:01:03.180digit it just stayed a double digit and grew a bit so that was a change in our political culture
01:01:07.520in 1980 or 81. We're having the same thing now, so that even if we lose the referendum,
01:01:13.380our political culture has changed to such a degree that the independence option is going to be
01:01:17.420something that's more credible than before. I guess it's kind of like Quebec, you know what
01:01:21.100I mean? Even though they lost the referendums, there's always a large segment of the population
01:01:25.680that supports independence, and Alberta would be more like that than it was before, because we
01:01:30.100can't get away from the political change that's happening right now in our culture because of
01:01:34.240this issue right now and in a way it's almost a the harder the pushback the more there is a risk
01:01:42.840of ottawa creating a shared origin story for more and more albertans right because um if they just
01:01:50.500overplayed their hand and pushed if they just cracked down you could create a like a cultural
01:01:56.460glue that would be impossible to undo um so in a in a sense they may like it may seem like the
01:02:05.220rhetoric's harsh on alberta right now but i feel like that's still measured in a certain way because
01:02:12.200it could be a lot worse but that risks waking up more people faster than the momentum is right now
01:02:19.780So it might get to a point where, like, if everything just becomes super friendly, that might be an indicator that, like, okay, well, the movement has grown to a point that they can't be tough with us anymore.
01:02:35.100They have, like, it's past all the other stages of grief into the, like, their bargaining.
01:02:40.880And so it may, the tone may still shift.
01:02:46.320Yeah, well, it's an important thing to point out too, like along the lines of what you're talking about, that the people who are attacking Alberta verbally, like it's not Mark Carney or his cabinet ministers, because if they were to do that, that would push things more towards independence.
01:03:00.020If Mark Carney came out and gave a nasty speech against us saying these Alberta separatists are a bunch of so-and-sos, that would actually, a lot of Albertans would kind of circle the wagons and that would kind of build our movement.
01:03:08.680And I'm sure that they realize that, you know, I'm sure that that contributes to them kind of either not talking about it at all or kind of, you know, underplaying it just because they knew that, I mean, the Liberal Party built this movement and they can make it a lot stronger if they, if they, you know, talk against us more harshly than they've done before.
01:03:31.460Mr. Wagner, we've had you for about an hour or so.
01:03:33.620So I don't know if James has another question, but I have one final thought for you.
01:03:36.660Um, I wonder if you, we, we asked this of, of certain guests, if you had to do like a, an elevator pitch, you know, for the final, like, uh, the, the highest elbowed, uh, liberal in Alberta who thinks like, you know what, this is just impossible.
01:03:54.980There is no way X, Y, Z, why this won't work.
01:03:59.840What would be your, your like politically neutral pitch to that person about why it can work, why it should happen and how we can get there?
01:04:10.340I hope that's not too crazy of a question, but give it a shot.