CALIFORNIA IS FLIPPING REPUBLICAN
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Summary
It's jungle primary day in California, and what we are seeing is massive for the GOP. In fact, Republicans have an advantage in early voting returns compared to Democrats, despite the fact that Democrats are a two-to-one favorite in the state. What does this mean for the midterms?
Transcript
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It is jungle primary day in California, and what we are seeing is massive for the GOP.
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You are not going to believe the early numbers.
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In fact, surprisingly, Republicans have an advantage in early voting returns compared
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to Democrats, despite the fact that Democrats are a two to one registration favorite in
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That means for every two Democrats, there's one Republicans, yet somehow, right now, Republicans have the early voting advantage.
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Now, in key congressional races, we are seeing Democrats pull ahead in the early voting data.
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But statewide, as of yesterday, it looks like Republicans have a massive advantage.
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They try to explain this away, but there's no real way to do it.
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Because typically in California, Democrats maintain an advantage, no matter what, just because they outnumber Republicans two to one.
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But that doesn't mean we are going to get a clean race.
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Now, we've got two big races to keep an eye on.
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And that is the governor's race, where Steve Hilton, the Republican, is expected to advance in the jungle primary runoff.
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And so is Republican Spencer Pratt in Los Angeles.
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And oh boy, are the Democrats freaking out about this.
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What we are seeing in California, regardless of whether or not Spencer Pratt or Steve Hilton
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actually win in November, what we are seeing today in the data from California could spell
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Enthusiasm is already through the roof for the Republicans.
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And this means, come the midterms, Democrats are in for a nasty little treat.
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Republicans are doing than anyone expects when the president is involved in an unfavorable war,
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the economy is not so good, gas prices are super high, and this is where the dirty games come in, my friends.
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ABC News reported yesterday burned ballots and vandalized voting center prompt investigations ahead of Tuesday's California primary.
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Did you think it would be easy? Did you think they would go quiet into that good night? No, sir, they would not. And what we have seen over the past several months is that Democrat donors have shifted their funding into, let's just call it more surreptitious means to secure power.
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We are seeing riots in Newark. We are seeing far left extremists be empowered and boldened
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and propped up in media in the same vein. The inverse, I should say, Republicans have been
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funneling money into elections. So it's no surprise that we see stories about vandalized
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and burned belts, riots and unrest. And on the Republican side, we are seeing massive enthusiasm,
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a massive media message and an advantage among the Republican voter bloc.
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So I'm going to say it like this as we get into this news.
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My friends, I have warned when the news broke several months ago that Democrats are three
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million dollars in debt, the party and the Republicans have a two hundred million dollar
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It was obvious that Democrat donors have shifted their priorities into securing power
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We are seeing right now what appears to be Democrats kind of walking away from these electoral victories.
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Now, they're throwing lots of money behind James Tallarico.
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So today, my friend, on this most auspicious of days, we must be prepared.
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The jungle primary will see two Republicans in advance.
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Remember, the data we get from California is going to be an excellent window into what we can expect in the midterms moving forward and how Democrats are going to handle this.
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Of course, as I've shown you already, it's going to get dirty.
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So let's jump into the news and take a look at where we currently are as this election is currently underway.
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If those of you that are in California get out, go vote, have your voice be heard because every single vote matters in much the same way.
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people say the snowflake doesn't blame itself for the avalanche. That is, if one person does
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one bad thing, that's not really a big deal, but a million people do it, it can create an avalanche.
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Think about that in the other way. You may just be a single, unique, and beautiful snowflake in
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that California state, but together you can be the avalanche that changes everything. So get out,
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my friends. Go vote if you haven't already. Now, before we get started, head over to
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simcast.com and click join us to be involved. You know, the most important thing in this world is
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it is community. We exist for the human experience. If humans cease to exist, what is there? But a
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with a bunch of animals and plants and sure, it's fine. But to the human experience, it's for each
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other. I'm here for you, you for me, we for each other. And that's why community is so important.
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You get involved in a community of tens of thousands of people.
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And you know that if you have ideas, if you have something to debate or something to build,
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Most importantly, do not sit idly by when you can join in and be that snowflake that
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As a member of TimCast.com, you get access to exclusive content.
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You can call in to Timcast IRL, talk to me and our guest Monday through Thursday, a network
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So stand up, get involved, and be the change you want to see at Timcast.com.
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My friends, first, we need to take a, you know, let me do this first, actually.
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Political Data Inc. is tracking ballot returns across California and in some high profile races.
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As of midday Monday, turnout statewide was at 16 percent.
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While Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide by almost double, Republicans have returned more ballots pre-election.
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21 percent of their voters compared to 16 percent for Democrats.
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Early voter turnout showing a boost to Republicans does not mean that eventually those numbers get to 100.
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It could, in fact, and likely does indicate voter enthusiasm, meaning, well, you need to understand, this is of their voters.
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So Democrats are still ahead of Republicans, but Republican turnout is greater than that of Democrats.
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Now, our friend, I believe I have this tweet from Benny. Where's the where's the Benny Johnson?
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I thought I had this pulled up. There we go. Benny Johnson's got the post and he says, stop
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scrolling and read this. Republicans are winning the early vote in California. Right now, Republicans
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were, well, as of the posting of this, 41.3 to Democrats, 41.2 with no party at 17.6. Now we
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don't know which way the no party will break, but I do believe that we have seen in the polling
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independents have leaned Republican in these past cycles. This is all good news for the GOP. He says
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Democrats have a five million voter advantage in CA. If this holds, the political map of America
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will be redrawn forever today. But did you think they would go quiet into that good night
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from ABC News? Burned ballots and vandalized voting center prompt investigations ahead of
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Tuesday's California primary. Now, the important thing you need to understand is called a jungle
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primary. What that means is everyone of every party goes into the same primary. Everybody then
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votes and it doesn't matter what your party is. Actually, I got to say, I'm a fan of the system.
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I am. I think parties should be removed from ballots. When you go in to vote, you can have,
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you know, I got to be honest. I think there should be no names on ballots. I think ballots
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should be a single sheet of paper and it says right in the name. And if you spell it wrong,
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it don't count. That's how it used to be way back in the day. And then parties emerged and
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they would hand out their own ballot saying, here's the list of candidates you want to vote
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for. And then people would take the pre-made ballot and submit it. And then at some point,
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we were all like, I got an idea. Here's how we can cheat. It was probably, you know, the political
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establishment saying, let's make it so that when you go to vote, there's a list of names on the
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ballot. You can check a box next to the problem with this. Now people vote based on party. They
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don't know who you are. They don't know what you stand for. They see a D, they see an R, they check
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the box. And this perpetuates the broken political system in this country. I say you get a blank
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piece of paper. It lists the positions and you write in the name of the person you want to win.
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No parties, just names. And if you spell the name wrong, if you spell Trump, Tramp, sorry,
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it doesn't count. Tramp gets one vote and then some guy named Donald J. Tramp might actually
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win the election. I doubt it, but you get the point. ABC News reports just one day ahead of
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a crucial California primary election, officials said police have been notified of two possible
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acts of voter interference after ballots were discovered burned in a drop off box and a voter
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Center was vandalized. Both incidents occurred over the weekend, L.A. County Registrar and
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County Clerk Dean C. Logan said in a statement on Sunday. According to Logan, during routine
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ballot collection procedures, staff from his department identified a limited number of vote
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by mail ballots that appeared to have sustained fire related damage inside an official ballot
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drop box. Now, the question is where? The damage ballots were found on Sunday morning in a drop
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box on a sidewalk outside the Civic Center in downtown L.A. Preliminary information indicates
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this incident. The incident was isolated and involved a small number of ballots as it occurred
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between the most recent scheduled collection and the following morning's retrieval. Well,
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my next question is, what do you determine to be a small number? Because what if it's a thousand?
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Is that a small number? Well, you know, we're going to have millions of votes,
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or is it seven? That would matter, right? Also on Sunday, vandalism was discovered at a voting
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center in Cesar R. Chavez Park in Long Beach, according to Logan. Election workers and
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officials responded immediately to the incident, and he said voting operations were not disrupted.
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Both incidents were reported to the L.A. Police Department. No arrests have been announced.
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Our responsibility is protect voters and ensure every eligible voter has the opportunity to cast
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a ballot. Any attempt to interfere with voting or election operations is taken seriously.
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Logan said his department is working to identify voters who may have been affected by the two
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incidents. Hilda Solis, chair of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, said that anyone
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caught vandalizing an election facility or committing other acts to interfere with the
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election will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Quote, voting is a fundamental right
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and L.A. County remains committed to ensuring every eligible voter can cast a ballot safely
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and confidently. Any attempt to vandalize election facilities, damage voting materials,
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or interfere with the voting process is unacceptable. Tuesday's California primary
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includes races for governor, secretary of state, controller, state attorney general, and treasurer.
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California voters will also vote on Prop 50 to determine if the state will adopt a new
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congressional map that redraws five districts to be more Democrat-leaning, potentially allowing
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Democrats to flip them in the midterm election. Prop 50 is a countermeasure to one in Texas
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after President Trump urged Texas Republicans to help him find five more Republicans for the
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U.S. House of Representatives ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Indeed, my friends, this race
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right now in California will determine the shape of this country. This is big, big news. The redrawn
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congressional maps are insane, much like Virginia. But let me stress the issue with Texas. Texas
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tried to redistrict back at the normal time 2021. They did the census. They drew up a new map. They
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said, here's the new maps we're doing for the for 2020. And the Biden administration immediately
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came in and said, we are suing you because these are racist. Under the Voting Rights Act, they said
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you need to make districts that are minority based, meaning a congressional district based
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on race. Texas said, no, that would be racist and filed suit or countersuit, I should say.
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This jammed up Texas until Donald Trump entered office and he instructed, or I should say the DOJ
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dropped, but probably under his instruction, the lawsuit against Texas, allowing Texas to finally
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implement the maps they wanted to. Texas did not erase Democrat districts. They made it to a certain
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extent they did. But for the most part, what Texas did was they redistricted in a way that made
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purple districts less competitive for Democrats. So it skews the state in favor of Republicans,
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but it's nowhere near the insanity of what they tried doing in Virginia, where they put
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five congressional districts in one county. I kid you not. They created these thin little
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slivers that all connected straight into Fairfax to guarantee the massive spattering of Democrat
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deep state voters could negatively influence all of the actual surrounding counties. So you've got
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rural Virginia with a bunch of Trump support and gun owners and a thin little strip going into
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Fairfax to make sure they can outnumber the rural folk. That was struck down and they lost. Now,
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California is trying to do the same thing. And that's why today is one of the most important
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days in this year election. But my friends, we wonder, we wonder indeed. ABC News reporting as
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crowded California gubernatorial race comes to a head, Republicans could advance. Will the GOP
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actually take over California? It would be a tremendous and beautiful thing if Steve Hilton
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won for governor and Spencer Pratt won for mayor. And I'm going to tell you why. There's somebody I
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know and I saw a video they put out where they were advocating for Nithya Rahman. Is that her
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name, right? Not this one. We got this here. Nithya Rahman. She is currently an 11% favorite
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to be on the Kalshi market, the mayor. Karen Bass at 65%. Spencer Pratt's at 24%. We're seeing the
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updates in real time. Now, the expectation is that through the jungle primary, Spencer Pratt and
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Karen Bass are going to advance. And I saw this post from this LA-based individual saying Nithya
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Rahman should be the winner. And I thought to myself, why? Why should Nithya Rahman be the
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winner. Seriously, what are we going to get from perpetual Democrat identical generic leadership?
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I lived in California for a couple of years. I lived in L.A. I worked on the homelessness issue,
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and I got to tell you, Democrat leadership is miserably bad. They don't care. They claim to
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care, but they don't. They never change anything, and there's no opposition. Why should Spencer
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Pratt win? I want to see an outsider finally come in and shake things up in Los Angeles.
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It doesn't mean he'll be the best person for the job. Not not in the political sense. It may mean
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he's the best person for the job in the human sense. Let me explain. You bring in a Karen Bass
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or a Nithya Raman. You get these far left progressives and its status quo. Nothing changes.
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The homeless crisis, the drug abuse, the inability to repair the damage from the Palisades fire.
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Spencer Pratt is not going to be your political suit wearing councilman who's now running for
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And for many of these people, they say, well, he's not the guy for the job.
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But I'll tell you why in the purest of sense, I believe he is Steve Hilton as well.
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Sometimes you have to recognize you may not know what lies ahead, but staying true to
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Spencer Pratt's family, they were victims of the Palisades fire.
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And we know that some wackaloons set that fire.
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This man wants his home back and he wants to rebuild, but they will not let him, nor
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He's animated and motivated to come in and make a change.
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And maybe that's what we need and why he's the actual guy to be the mayor.
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Los Angeles neighborhood 4th of July parade canceled after Bass budget cuts, organizers
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A neighborhood council president said the L.A. mayor's staff ignored calls to help fundraise
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One of the most offensive things to me, and it's sad to say, because I left Chicago.
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Used to ride the orange line, transfer to the blue line, sometimes the red line.
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I remember when they rolled up the pink line, and we realized it's basically the blue line
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with extra steps. I used to go to the Taste of Chicago on the 4th of July. You'd go down. It was
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like July 2nd, 3rd, 4th, whatever the Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and you'd buy tickets and you'd
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get access to all this beautiful food. We got Italian beefs dipped with hot peppers, maybe a
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little provolone cheese or mozzarella. Delicious. Hot dogs, cheeseburgers, deep dish pizza, you name
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it. Chicago had the taste. They got rid of it. We used to go down and eat food and watch the
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majestic fireworks. They got rid of it. It's terrifying. It is terrifying. I want to stress
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this to all of you. The American tradition, the things that we grew up with, the values that we
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held, erased from the city under its current socialist leadership. Don't get me wrong,
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Brandon Johnson isn't the one who stopped it all. Just over time, the people of the city
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stopped caring about the events and the values that we held dear. That's what I fear about what
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we see with California. Take a look at this one. Ban on backyard barbecues on certain days in
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California floated as others push back hard. Let's go. A mayoral candidate in California
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is taking heat for proposing that our city ban backyard barbecues on days that carry high
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wildfire risk. Do you guys, the wildfire was started by a lunatic. This is what they do.
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And someone says, but she wants to ban barbecues.
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Yeah, well, the wildfires are started by people.
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There was one incident where a truck was driving and a chain fell down and smacked the ground and sparked and started a fire.
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They want to tell you you can't have a cheeseburger with your family.
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The New York Times, man accused of starting Palisades fire, admired Luigi Mangione.
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This was this was a lunatic, a lunatic lefty, a lunatic lefty.
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Federal prosecutors say the man accused of starting one of the most destructive fires in California history was fascinated by fire and Luigi Mangione and became a populist hero to some after he was charged with murdering a health insurance executive.
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Jonathan Rindernacht, 30, is accused of intentionally setting a fire in the Santa Monica Mountains that I will say allegedly, as I will just make sure it's on the record, innocent until proven guilty.
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It killed 12 people and destroyed thousands in homes across the Palisades neighborhood
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Federal prosecutors say that in December of 24, the month before the fire, Mr. Rinder
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Necht had been living alone in an apartment in North Hollywood and working as an Uber
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He seemed to have followed the case of Mangione, who was charged with killing Brian Thompson.
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In the wake of this shooting, Mangione became a folk hero.
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Rinder Necht searched for Mangione-related news using the term free Luigi Mangione and
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Could it be that this man intentionally burned down the Palisades to target wealthy, influential individuals because they told him to do it online?
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And in response, these these people look at this.
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The DSA backed both of Vermont's earlier council campaigns.
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Her proposal to ban backyard barbecuing would have also extended to fire pits and restaurants that cook with open flames.
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Raman's original public safety motion included language about a notice to all residents
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in red flag warning areas to cease all activities that increase risk of fire,
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such as the use of outdoor barbecues or fire pits.
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So you want to have a nice hot dog, some chicken breast, maybe some shrimp on a barbie.
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You want to sit down in your backyard with your friends and your family and enjoy a nice meal.
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Well, it was a person. OK, no, no, no, don't get me wrong. I understand the Palisades fire is a singular incident and wildfires can happen all the time. But she is saying, I understand this ban backyard grilling, which is to indicate she fears wildfires in residential areas, not wildfires in wild areas, residential areas.
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as if to imply the residential wildfires we have seen were accidents caused by people enjoying a
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cheeseburger. It's because they are vile, they are evil, they are liars, they are communists,
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and they want you to live under a boot. Let's talk about North Korea. Let's talk about what
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communism does. Let me tell you, my friends. In North Korea, there can be a family and they have
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a cow. And the cow drops dead. Now, what should a family do? Well, you don't want to waste the
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meat in a country where you're starving, so you should probably cut up that meat and eat it.
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You'll die. They will kill you. In North Korea, if an animal dies, the meat must be distributed
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across the nation. And truth be told, cows can be pretty hefty and have lots of meat.
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One cow, get this, one cow can feed a family for a year. Isn't that crazy? You need a little bit
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more than just beef. But this, this is, this is what's hilarious. A cow can produce something like
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2000 cheeseburgers. Now, ain't that something? Don't get me wrong. You ain't getting a bun,
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the lettuce, tomato, onion, ketchup, mustard, whatever you want to put on it. You ain't getting
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that from the cow, but the beef itself. So in North Korea, when the cow dies, you have to tell
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the military to come and take the cow away. And then you watch as they take it away and you starve.
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That's communism. Why? That's inefficient. That's just maximizing suffering. Why should that be the
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case. I hear stories where apparently what they'll do is a young military officer will report the
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cow missing and just say, we don't know what happened. So the family can have food and not
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starve to death. This is what you will get under communism. They'll make up fake reasons to take
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away the things that you love. I'll tell you why. You may be saying, Tim, that makes no sense.
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What is the reason to ban barbecuing if not for the wildfires? Resource control.
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So the way the communists and those proponents of a command economy operate is they say, we would be better off if we allocated our fuel, propane perhaps, towards some other public work.
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Someone says the problem is 17% of our consumption is coming from consumer use for backyard barbecues.
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Backyard barbecues are not an efficient thing.
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Then people will buy propane for something else.
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They'll burn mesquite or charcoal for something else.
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They tell you that you can't enjoy a nice backyard barbecue.
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We know barbecue is different because they want to control what you do.
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He said tax the sodas because people are fat.
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He said tax the poor because they're too stupid to know what's good for them.
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He said, a poor person works a minimum wage job and then wastes their money on stupid things.
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We should take that money from them and spend it on their behalf.
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You tax the working class at a massive amount of their income to guarantee they get survival
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Under the commie plan, under Bloomberg's plan, you make 50K, you can keep 10.
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We're taking 40,000 of it and we'll guarantee your communist block housing and your schlop
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You can eat your your milled oats and your sawdust for supplemental fiber.
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That way you feel like you're eating food when you're not and then you die.
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The general idea they push is let them control your resources and they'll decide better for
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I think people is dumb. I think there are a lot of stupid people that they'll buy, you know,
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junk food, ice cream sandwiches, and then they're malnourished, starving, and their brains rot
1.00
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because of it. But I also believe it's an important component of any society that people
00:25:30.580
choose. The people who choose to eat poorly, they'll live poorly. They'll struggle, but it's
00:25:36.420
their choice. And the people who choose to eat healthy and exercise will survive. You can't
00:25:41.680
force people to be smart. You can't force people to eat right. That's why they do what they do.
00:25:48.160
Now, right now, my friends, we are looking at Steve Hilton with a 77% chance to advance.
00:25:54.960
Tom Steyer's at 33, Javier Becerra at 93.1. The bigger question then ultimately is,
00:26:02.660
will they actually win? Don't know for sure. It's going to go to the runoff. Now,
00:26:12.740
What we were hoping for before they just literally eviscerated Eric Swalwell,
00:26:18.540
with Swalwell in the race, the Democrats were split so much
00:26:22.080
that Chad Bianco and Hilton were the favorites to advance.
00:26:25.260
And if two Republicans advance in the governor's race, you cooked.
00:26:35.560
Early voting data suggests strategic turnout as California racially takes shape.
00:26:39.540
Political science experts say California early voter turnout remains low,
00:26:42.740
but could rise as campaigns sharpen and voters become more engaged.
00:26:48.180
Let's just say there's 67 Democrat voters to 33 Republican voters.
00:26:56.580
21% means you're looking at around 6% of the voter base coming out to vote.
00:27:03.700
with 16% of Democrats, it means you're looking at about nine to 10% coming out. So Democrats
00:27:10.640
are beating Republicans in the core data. Now, Benny Johnson has different data as of this
00:27:17.020
morning, showing Republicans with a slight advantage. We will see. We will see. I want
00:27:22.560
to make sure I'm giving you all the details that we got because we don't know for sure. Tonight
00:27:25.360
on Timcast IRL, we'll be breaking down this race, one of the most important races. And I will
00:27:30.060
stresses to all of you. It's not so much that we as the American people need Spencer Pratt and
00:27:37.060
Steve Hilton to win. And this is just the primary, mind you, the actual general will be in November.
00:27:41.740
It's that the data we get on early voting turnout, the vote by party is going to be massively
00:27:50.880
indicative of what is to come in the midterms. And I'm excited for it. Take a look at this
00:27:57.060
beautiful map Benny posted showing massive Republican turnout, massive Republican turnout.
00:28:02.320
Even LA has got a higher Republican turnout. The question is, are people finally waking up to the
00:28:08.260
shenanigans, to the lies, the manipulations and the failures of one party rule? I'd be surprised,
00:28:13.360
really. I lived in LA. I lived in Los Angeles. I saw the homeless crisis firsthand. I worked
00:28:21.060
with nonprofits on the homeless issue. These are people who choose to go to L.A. for good weather
00:28:27.120
and free stuff. So why do they allow it? Honest question. I want you guys to comment. You tell
00:28:33.580
me because I don't know. Why does California state give money and resources to derelict
00:28:39.840
individuals, drug addicts, to perpetuate this problem? That's what's terrifying about it.
00:28:45.700
if something does not change, it will just keep getting worse. The people of California
00:28:53.840
will suffer. But here's the truth. Here's the truth, my friends, that I hope you take to heart.
00:28:59.100
We live better than kings. Poor people in California live better than kings. It's a sad
00:29:04.220
reality. The sad reality, I mean, it's actually pretty amazing what capitalism has done. But the
00:29:08.720
bad reality is because people live so comfortably, they sit back and they let bad things happen.
00:29:17.260
That's just how it goes. You know, there's this old quote, I think it was, was it Rumsfeld? I
00:29:21.320
can't remember who. Something like he said, we should allow terror attacks to happen every once
00:29:25.660
in a while to remind people why we have the security apparatus that we do. And it's a
00:29:30.760
terrifying prospect. I understand the point he's making. I disagree. We shouldn't. The argument is
00:29:36.580
when people get comfortable, they forget why. And so there's another story that I think
00:29:41.640
exemplifies an allergy. It is a man and a woman moving to a homestead and the man builds a fence
00:29:48.060
around his homestead to protect his wife from the wolves. Well, one day while the wife is out
00:29:54.080
gardening, the wolf comes to the gate and whispers, why are you locked in this cage?
00:29:59.500
She says, I'm not locked in this cage. I can go wherever I want. And the wolf says,
00:30:04.400
that man has locked you in a cage and you can't even realize it.
00:30:09.980
The woman starts getting angry thinking, yeah, why am I locked in this cage?
0.83
00:30:14.460
So she grabs a hammer and she smashes the fence, tearing it down, and the wolf eats her.
00:30:22.920
The idea being, after a long enough time safe and secure within the confines of this beautiful
00:30:29.100
homestead, she forgot why it was built in the first place, to protect her.
00:30:34.400
to give her something better. And that's the fear that we as American people have become so fat and
00:30:40.200
happy and comfortable that when people say you need to go out and vote, they say,
00:30:45.380
listen, I know gas prices are high. I know things are bad, but a lot of people just say,
00:30:49.900
meh. Listen, I got a place to live. I got food. I got my AI animated waifu. What more could a man
00:30:57.360
want, they say. And so bad things begin to pile up and bad things begin to happen. And unfortunately,
00:31:03.660
It doesn't stop until it gets so bad that people finally are snapped out of their stupor and say, okay, times must change now.
00:31:13.160
Will you do what must be done and save this country?
00:31:18.040
Stick around because we're back tonight at 8 p.m. for Timcast IRL.
00:31:20.720
Thanks for hanging out, and we'll see you all then.