The Culture War - Tim Pool - June 09, 2026


Democrats Face MIDTERM BLOWOUT, Polling Data Is BAD NEWS FOR Dems


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22 minutes

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168.41

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3,747

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317

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6

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The latest polling data across the board shows incredibly bad news for the Democrats. Is there election fraud going on in California? And what will the Supreme Court have to say about it? Today's episode is all about election fraud and why you should be worried.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
00:00:00.000 The latest polling coming out across the board shows incredibly bad news for the Democrats.
00:00:07.700 My friends, when you see the latest map of the midterm layout, you will be shocked because
00:00:15.520 I certainly am based on prediction data and polling.
00:00:19.220 Everybody's making the argument that Democrats are going to win the House and maybe the Senate,
00:00:25.920 maybe the Senate.
00:00:26.820 Now, for the most part, it looks like they ain't going to be able to take the Senate
00:00:28.860 because they have to flip a Republican seat
00:00:30.400 and win every single toss-up, which is nuts.
00:00:33.440 But now, Inside Elections map shows
00:00:36.120 Republicans need to win a single toss-up.
00:00:41.100 I'm not kidding.
00:00:42.440 According to Inside Elections,
00:00:43.900 considered to be one of the most accurate pollsters,
00:00:45.740 and maybe they're wrong,
00:00:46.880 if Republicans win one toss-up seat,
00:00:50.320 they will hold a majority in Congress
00:00:54.260 this midterm election.
00:00:56.860 It's massive.
00:00:57.420 Considering over the past several years, we have seen a consistent polling bias in favor of Democrats averaging around 2.7 percent, indicating that once again, if you apply this math, it looks like Republicans are tracking to actually keep the House.
00:01:15.540 Now, there are still questions, my friends, because I remember this, oh, so many years ago.
00:01:21.940 In fact, it was twenty eighteen predictions were flying a potential blue wave.
00:01:28.180 Democrats were going to push back on Trumpism, take the House and it was going to be called the blue wave.
00:01:34.240 Well, sure enough, it did not manifest on election night.
00:01:38.580 No, but it manifested in the weeks after because in places like California, Republicans who handily won all of a sudden saw their races lost because California said, well, we got to start counting votes that came in late.
00:01:51.460 Sure enough, right now, L.A. Times reporting, feds are pursuing multiple election fraud investigations.
00:01:57.780 People are now highlighting a story from last year where a woman highlighted.
00:02:02.540 She admitted she registered her dog to vote her dog and her dog actually voted in California.
00:02:08.580 And only because she admitted it, she was charged with felonies.
00:02:13.160 Why did she do it? 0.96
00:02:14.920 She said she did it intentionally to prove that California allows fake voting.
00:02:21.940 And there lies the big problem.
00:02:23.880 The polling data may actually be favoring Republicans based on historical bias and the literal data itself if we take it at face value.
00:02:31.200 But what if they just cheat in places like California?
00:02:35.660 Well, they're trying to redistrict California to get rid of Republican seats anyway,
00:02:39.440 but I don't think it will ultimately matter.
00:02:41.580 The polling data shows.
00:02:43.240 Got a lot.
00:02:44.060 But there's more than just California.
00:02:46.100 And with that being said, there is still a nuclear bomb to be dropped.
00:02:49.560 And that is, my friends, Watson v. R. N. C.
00:02:53.860 If you've not been following the SCOTUS case, it's going to change everything.
00:02:57.800 The Supreme Court could rule narrowly.
00:03:00.280 They could rule broadly.
00:03:02.200 Either way, bad, bad news for the Democrats.
00:03:05.220 Why? If this ruling comes down the way we think it will, the Supreme Court will end the practice
00:03:11.340 of counting votes after Election Day. That's a narrow ruling. This means election night,
00:03:16.860 midnight, bang, we're done. Stop counting. Don't care where the votes are. Don't worry how they
00:03:22.580 came in. It doesn't matter. You get one day to count the votes. That's a narrow ruling.
00:03:27.600 That would mean that Spencer Pratt would have won in California. He'd be advancing and not
00:03:31.280 this weird Nithya Raman scenario where she somehow got more votes in mail-in votes than
00:03:36.180 Karen Bastid. Apparently, Democrats don't vote early. Only socialists do. Sure. Well, if they 1.00
00:03:43.740 rule broadly, this is where it gets real interesting. The Supreme Court could state
00:03:48.060 that Congress prescribes a single day for elections, ergo mail-in votes out, early votes
00:03:55.360 out. And only those who vote day of shall count. Nothing before, nothing after. And that would be
00:04:03.400 a nuclear bomb for Democrats because the entire way they win is ballot harvest. And that's right,
00:04:08.580 knocking on doors, legally or otherwise, it's legal in California, and filling out votes for
00:04:14.780 people. I'm not kidding. That's actually how they do it. But let's jump into the news. And first,
00:04:19.660 before I get into the election fraud stuff, I do have this story pulled up. I want to talk about
00:04:23.240 the polling data and why y'all should be pretty optimistic and leading the charge for what you
00:04:29.140 believe. Before we dive into that, head over to TimCast.com and click join now. We need you.
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00:05:31.060 Let's jump first to my favorite 270 to win.
00:05:35.280 Now, the first thing I want to say is this is the 2026 House Election Interactive Map
00:05:40.240 projections based on various metrics, including leading pollsters as well as the Calci prediction
00:05:46.320 market.
00:05:46.680 For some reason, the Kalshi prediction market, don't know why, believes that the Democrats have an 80, well, 79 percent, let's be precise, 79 percent likelihood to take the House, despite all of the polling data.
00:06:02.160 Republicans are only 22 percent.
00:06:04.240 Full disclosure, I had previously held a position in two markets on Kalshi.
00:06:09.900 One, that the Republicans in this market would control the House, and two, that Republicans would sweep the House.
00:06:15.580 Before publishing this video, I sold those positions to avoid a potential conflict of interest.
00:06:19.580 Probably shouldn't have bought them in the first place because I do report on this.
00:06:23.100 But this is intentionally to avoid being in a situation where this video would influence the price.
00:06:27.700 I sold these. I lost money doing it.
00:06:29.940 As only as only I lost like 40 bucks.
00:06:32.040 I'm not doing big bets or anything like this.
00:06:34.180 But I'll make sure all of you know I have I have sold those positions to exit this because this may influence how people.
00:06:40.600 This video has the ability to influence how people are wagering.
00:06:43.620 And I don't want to have a stake in that if I'm going to be commenting on it.
00:06:47.720 I don't want people to buy or sell based on what I'm saying and have an impact on how I may or make or lose money.
00:06:53.580 So I just sold. I am out. Full disclosure.
00:06:56.960 Here is the latest 270 to win map, and it is mind blowing.
00:07:01.220 This is from Inside Elections. Check this out.
00:07:05.120 So we've got lean right. Let me get you the actual numbers here.
00:07:10.520 You've got tilt, lean, likely and safe. All right. Tilt right here for the Republicans. Six tilt Republicans. The reason why this matters is that traditional polling data skews pro Democrat. Currently, from tilt to safe, there are 217 Republican seats. And from tilt to safe, there are 204 Democrat seats with 14 toss ups.
00:07:35.680 if we are to apply a 2.7 percent Democrat bias, it's over. Republicans need to win
00:07:45.800 a single toss up based on this map. Now, this is inside elections. If we take a look at Cook
00:07:51.940 political, it's still good. 212 Republican, a 205 Democrat. They only need to win six toss ups.
00:07:59.440 And again, if you apply the traditional bias, it's looking good for Republicans.
00:08:03.480 We can then take a look at Sabato's crystal ball, 213 Republican to 206 Democrat.
00:08:10.120 If we were to aggregate the three top pollsters right now, we'd be looking at about 214,
00:08:16.740 I'd say 214 to 215 Republican seats with 15, 16 toss ups or 14 to 15 toss ups.
00:08:23.840 However, the interesting thing is if you pull the consensus, it says 211 Republican seats,
00:08:31.060 205 Democrats with 19 toss ups. Why the bigger gap? Well, either way, this is really, really
00:08:37.060 good news for Republicans based on the consensus. The problem is the consensus includes Calci
00:08:42.120 markets. Now, this is where things get weird. The Calci prediction market suggests 224 Democrat
00:08:50.080 seats to 202 Republicans, meaning tilts don't even matter. According to the Calci prediction
00:08:56.780 markets, there's literally no way Republicans can win. I don't buy it. I'm sorry, guys. I do
00:09:03.420 think Kalshi is great in certain respects, but for every pollster to be wrong and for Kalshi to be
00:09:11.540 so dramatically pro-Democrat when the polling data should be pro-Democrat as it is, I'm sorry,
00:09:17.880 this is incongruous as it were. You factor in Watson v. RNC, that decision will likely drop
00:09:25.860 in the coming weeks, fundamentally altering Democrat advantages. It makes no sense to
00:09:31.860 wager on Democrats to win. Now, as I say this, you understand why I liquidated my position,
00:09:37.140 because there's a possibility that by me pointing out Democrats can't win.
00:09:42.260 I mean, they can't get me wrong, but it's very unlikely. People would start buying Republican
00:09:45.820 would boost the position. I might make might make money on that. I don't want to. So I got rid of
00:09:50.220 those. I am not. See, Kalshi, listen, right? I got rid of those positions because I will talk
00:09:56.440 about it and I didn't want to. So it's not, you know, no manipulation there. I lost money.
00:10:01.000 Full disclosure. But I'm going to stress it again. Kalshi, I'm going to have to ask you how
00:10:05.400 people genuinely believe this map is possible considering historical polling data favors
00:10:11.840 Democrats and current polling data is favoring Republicans, indicating if we mitigate for
00:10:18.020 potential bias over the last even 2024 election. Republicans are taking this handily. Here we go,
00:10:25.160 my friends. I got this one here from our friend Grok, because what I want to do is I want to pull
00:10:32.600 up the most beneficial to Republicans, and that's inside elections. Of course, I did show you all
00:10:36.680 of them, full disclosure. 217 Republican, a 204 Democrat. That's nuts. So I said, how accurate
00:10:43.020 has inside elections been over the past decade? Inside elections, formerly Rothenberg Political
00:10:47.860 Report has a strong, reliable track record as one of the leading nonpartisan congressional
00:10:51.580 election forecasters, comparable to peers like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's
00:10:56.040 Crystal Ball.
00:10:57.260 It excels at qualitative analysis, combining polling, candidate quality, fundraising, district
00:11:04.260 history, and on-the-ground reporting.
00:11:05.820 Like similar expert raters, it achieves very high accuracy on safe, solid, and likely calls
00:11:10.540 up to 95% correct, with more mixed but still useful performance on liens and toss-ups.
00:11:17.320 No major systematic partisan bias is evident in available analyses.
00:11:22.480 It is widely viewed as nonpartisan.
00:11:25.140 That being said, nonpartisan does not mean completely correct.
00:11:30.820 So I asked our friend Grok, has most polling had a bias in the past 10 years?
00:11:35.760 Yes, most public polling in the U.S. presidential elections over the past decade, particularly
00:11:39.580 2016 to 24, has shown a consistent directional bias, underestimating Republican, especially
00:11:45.420 Trump, support relative to Democrats.
00:11:47.320 2016, we all know, at 2020, the highest error in 40 years in 2020, they correctly predicted
00:11:55.080 Biden's win, but overstated his margins significantly around two to four points in many
00:12:01.500 analyses. State polls especially missed Trump's strength. Polling improved compared to 2016 and
00:12:07.420 2020. However, for the third consecutive presidential cycle, polls understated Trump's
00:12:12.820 performance and overstated Democrat margins by about two point seven points on average across
00:12:17.880 races. National and swing state polls followed this pattern, though the races through, though
00:12:23.380 the race was close enough. The directional direction didn't miss the flip in the overall
00:12:27.140 narrative. Real clear politics averages and similar aggregators reflected this. They lean
00:12:32.720 towards Democrats and Harris in the final recordings and the final reading final readings,
00:12:36.080 but underestimated Trump's actual share. They go on to mention all this, but let's ask,
00:12:41.180 What about midterms? I want to make sure in real time we are getting an accurate assessment about what may come in these midterms, because I could be wrong about all of this. Democrats may find their magic golden bullet. No, midterms have not shown the same consistent pro Democrat polling bias seen in recent presidential races.
00:13:03.800 Polling in 2018 and 2022 midterms was generally accurate with minimalist, minimal systemic
00:13:07.760 bias, while 2014 had some Republican underestimation in certain races.
00:13:13.460 2022 polling was highly accurate, often described as better than recent presidential cycles,
00:13:18.420 and one of the strongest performances in decades.
00:13:21.300 FiveThirty and others noted polls were more accurate than in any cycle since at least
00:13:24.780 98 with almost no bias.
00:13:27.220 So this is where it gets interesting.
00:13:28.420 The argument being that the midterms will not be like the presidential races.
00:13:34.740 And that being said, you got to ask yourselves why it is people are willing to put money down on Democrats to take this.
00:13:42.520 Well, let's say it like this.
00:13:45.300 Grok says that the last midterm, 2022, was one of the most accurate.
00:13:50.940 So what changes today?
00:13:52.400 Why would people put money down defying what the markets actually say?
00:13:58.420 doesn't make sense to me. This this is where I question Calci. Now there's conspiracy theories.
00:14:05.780 I'm going to go and put it like this. Evidence suggests there is either a pro Democrat bias or
00:14:12.080 none at all. If the current polling data shows that Republicans are likely to receive at least
00:14:18.480 two hundred and eleven, I mean, two hundred and twelve from Cook Political. Why would Calci bet
00:14:24.100 on Republicans having 202. What's the real reason? Honestly, that makes no sense.
00:14:30.540 There are arguments. One argument is that CalShe data is being manipulated to create a perception.
00:14:36.940 See, polling data, you can't really manipulate unless you work in the polling company.
00:14:40.700 But these polling companies don't like having bad reputations. They live or die on getting
00:14:44.460 these things right. There could be bias, and there has been. Certainly, it's a product of
00:14:48.500 the bias of these organizations. Kalshi, however, you can just buy it. If you're wealthy enough,
00:14:55.640 a couple million dollars can swing the perception of any one of these races.
00:14:59.100 In fact, in many of these singular districts, the amount of money put in is a couple hundred grand.
00:15:03.940 If you are a multi-billion dollar enterprise trying to make sure a party wins,
00:15:08.820 you can afford it. Not to mention, you can always cash out. At the last minute, perhaps.
00:15:16.800 Now, I don't know exactly what's going to happen, but I know there's going to be a great battle,
00:15:21.000 as it were. Right now, there's a question of fraud, and there has been a question of fraud
00:15:26.400 for some time. I'll put it like this. The through line from all of my videos today,
00:15:31.720 not all of them, but most of them, Democrats have codified fraud in California. Let me explain.
00:15:41.160 You've heard me say it a million times if you've watched all my videos,
00:15:43.020 But what do we want from this midterm?
00:15:45.120 People in their district to vote for the candidate they like.
00:15:47.440 Be that Thomas Massey or Edgar Rain, whatever.
00:15:50.120 The person that they like wins.
00:15:51.900 Not in Democrat districts.
00:15:54.460 They win by sending out ballot harvesters in California, especially to fill out the ballot with you.
00:16:02.140 If you decide on a candidate they don't like, they'll just simply refuse to accept the ballot.
00:16:06.820 But if you vote for who they do like, they'll take it for you, sign it, and drop it off at the polling station just for you.
00:16:12.420 That's fraud.
00:16:13.560 That's cheating.
00:16:14.820 That's manipulation.
00:16:16.760 Now, where it gets real interesting, a Democratic super PAC makes a $50 million bet in Republican
00:16:24.240 strongholds.
00:16:25.920 American Bridge is hoping that Republicans are vulnerable in parts of the country that
00:16:29.700 had been exceedingly tough terrain for Democrats in recent elections.
00:16:33.660 Indeed, the strategy is going to be this.
00:16:36.980 Find, let's go to the insider, let's go to insider elections, inside elections.
00:16:41.580 take a look at this one here. This is, let's pull it up. No, no, no, no, no. Come on. We don't want
00:16:47.520 to do that. We just want toss-up. So, is it going to tell me what the district this is? 0.97
00:16:52.960 If I zoom in on it? I thought I was supposed to highlight it. This here in Wisconsin,
00:16:57.600 it's a tilt district, meaning it tilts Republican, but, you know, it's close to a toss-up, right?
00:17:05.020 Well, my friends, if Democrats go and dump a bunch of money in here, maybe they can make a difference.
00:17:13.920 They're hoping that they can swing this from a tilt to a toss up or to Democrat.
00:17:20.360 The question I have ultimately, though, is what's their argument?
00:17:24.660 Seriously, it's not going to be to go to conservatives and say, maybe you should consider voting Democrat.
00:17:30.180 It ain't going to be it.
00:17:31.760 No, it's going to be ballot harvesting.
00:17:34.020 $50 million goes a long way.
00:17:36.420 Greases a lot of palms, if you know what I'm saying.
00:17:38.300 Lines a lot of pockets with gold.
00:17:40.560 I'd be willing to bet the real play is not about advertising.
00:17:44.280 That's what they're talking about.
00:17:45.180 They're saying $50 million in advertising.
00:17:46.600 I think it's more about procedure.
00:17:48.520 If you can procedurally get the votes, you don't need to prove anything to anybody.
00:17:52.520 That's California's way. 0.77
00:17:53.940 We don't care who the people actually want to be in charge. 1.00
00:17:57.640 We're just going to make it look like we should be so we get the power.
00:18:01.260 they report a major democratic super PAC hopes to stretch the midterm battleground map by kicking
00:18:06.800 off a roughly 50 million dollar advertising campaign targeting republicans in more than
00:18:11.120 a dozen house districts and four senate races most of them traditionally republican areas
00:18:15.560 the amount is the the amount is the most ever spent in a midterm election by american bridge
00:18:21.760 which has spent the past year studying the concerns of working class voters
00:18:25.400 and their media consumption habits and sees a rare opening for democrats as president trump's
00:18:30.120 approval rating plunges. I think the strategy is going to be in these districts. They're going to
00:18:34.040 bring about moderates. I say, good. You're going to get Democrats who are neutral on Israel.
00:18:40.220 They're not going to talk about it. They're not going to talk as much about abortion. They're
00:18:44.380 going to avoid the abortion to the point of birth. They will be largely anti-woke. But if they win
00:18:50.300 on that message nationally, it's going to be woke all the way down. This is the strategy.
00:18:55.740 In these places, the goal will be. Make it look like we're regular people. That's what they're
00:19:04.580 kind of trying to do with James Tallarico in Texas to win the Senate. I got to tell you,
00:19:09.620 though, my friends, I don't think Tallarico's got it. I you know, Texas has had a bunch of
00:19:15.560 people move in. Tallarico is kind of off putting and weird. Let's take a look at this. Let's take
00:19:21.280 a look at insider elections. Insider elections is predicting the Senate will be taken by the
00:19:26.120 Republicans, 52, to Democrats, 45. Don't forget that includes two independents. Absolutely insane.
00:19:34.680 Let's just look at all this. Right now, 53 Republican seats. So they actually think Democrats
00:19:40.900 might take a seat. Well, actually, there's toss up, so we don't know. Rice of the White House
00:19:45.520 currently predicts, projects Republicans to be at 48. So it's pretty wild. Almanac American
00:19:52.360 politics is 51. Democrats got in the bag. Cook Political report. Cook Political says Republicans
00:19:58.100 got it in the bag. Sabato says Republicans got it in the bag. Calci says Democrats got it in the bag.
00:20:06.640 why why would the senate polling data be so biased for republicans i don't know i don't know my
00:20:19.460 friends i do not know i want to show you this press release orange county costa mesa woman
00:20:27.920 charged with five felonies for illegally registering her dog to vote casting mail-in
00:20:32.740 ballots sent to dog in two elections. The vote was counted in the 2020, 2021 gubernatorial recall
00:20:40.540 in the 2022 primary. It was rejected. Why? Some kind of ID law or whatever. She admitted it.
00:20:48.860 It's the only reason they were found out. Woman pleads guilty to registering her dog to vote in
00:20:53.900 California election. Indeed, my friends, it's all one big game. Indeed. I don't know exactly what's
00:21:02.020 going to happen. But I will say things are looking pretty good for Republicans right now.
00:21:06.700 People are putting money on Democrats. Hey, money talks. That means something.
00:21:11.360 But if the polling data is accurate, then if we go by inside elections, Republicans need to win
00:21:18.300 only a single seat. It may come down just neck and neck. It could be a lightly Democrat. You know,
00:21:25.100 if the Democrats only have one seat, then there's no real clear majority. Then Trump may as well
00:21:29.080 of one. Democrats need to secure like five seats to actually be able to make a difference. Right 0.74
00:21:34.780 now, Republicans barely have a majority and they can't get anything done. So Trump is kind of just
00:21:39.620 doing what he can, and the Senate's also not helping either. If Democrats win the House but
00:21:43.520 barely get a majority, it's going to be very similar. They'll be able to do some things,
00:21:47.460 but they will still be constrained in many ways. If Democrats take power, it's going to be brutal,
00:21:53.380 to say the least. Normally for these segments, my friends, I go about 10 more minutes, but I'm
00:21:57.700 to wrap it up there. I think we got the point. Three segments already today talking about the
00:22:02.080 same thing for the most part, so I don't want to beat a dead horse. We'll keep the horse alive.
00:22:07.640 I'll wrap it up there. Smash the like button. Share the show with everyone you know.
00:22:11.100 We're back tonight at 8 p.m. for Timcast IRL. Thanks for hanging out, and we'll see you all then.