The Culture War - Tim Pool - Democrats IMPLODING Despite Trump SMEARS, Democrats Polling IS WORSE ft. Ryan Girdusky

00:00:00.000 We'll jump into this next story.

00:00:01.840 This one's fascinating.

00:00:03.800 Trump's falling in the polls.

00:00:06.260 Why aren't Democrats benefiting?

00:00:08.660 I absolutely love this.

00:00:11.540 Despite the fact that the media is attacking Donald Trump, they're smearing him and insulting

00:00:17.680 him.

00:00:18.200 Everything he does is wrong.

00:00:19.640 Democrats are dropping worse.

00:00:23.440 Donald Trump's approval rating.

00:00:24.960 Let's pull up his aggregate approval rating.

00:00:26.420 This is this is fantastic.

00:00:27.380 Let's do let's do the RealClearPolitics Trump aggregate and let's see where Trump is currently

00:00:32.160 at.

00:00:33.860 RealClearPolitics president job approval.

00:00:36.360 Heavens to Betsy. 1.00

00:00:38.200 It is 45 percent approval.

00:00:41.960 Let's do this.

00:00:44.800 Voters rate.

00:00:46.020 Let's see.

00:00:46.700 Is that is that the is that the right one?

00:00:49.080 Yes, yes, yes.

00:00:49.720 Here we go.

00:00:50.540 You know what?

00:00:51.280 You know what?

00:00:52.380 I'll pull this one in real quick.

00:00:54.580 Look at this.

00:00:55.020 Democrats favorability hits new low, still favored, they say, over the GOP.

00:01:00.840 Fine.

00:01:01.660 But check this out.

00:01:03.720 Democrat favorability is 41 percent.

00:01:07.140 That is, my friends, Democrats favorability is lower than that of Trump's job approval rating.

00:01:14.300 Now, civics has similar metrics.

00:01:16.720 I'm not going to pull up 50 million polls.

00:01:18.820 The point is this.

00:01:20.380 I will absolutely state it's fair to say I'm using an aggregate.

00:01:23.680 If we go to Fox News, what's the latest Fox News?

00:01:26.180 They have one here.

00:01:27.540 Doesn't look like they have a Fox News poll on the job approval for Trump.

00:01:30.780 But Trump's got a couple of polls that are positive.

00:01:33.440 Rasmussen's got a plus three.

00:01:34.740 But let's just say minus six.

00:01:36.660 Forty five point two.

00:01:39.220 Democrats are still doing worse.

00:01:41.340 So we're going to be joined by Ryan James Gerdusky.

00:01:48.440 Let me get this pulled up and he will talk to us about what is currently going on with the Democratic Party and why it's not been going so well.

00:01:58.700 So let me see if I can get this pulled up quickly.

00:02:01.400 We're going to get that going.

00:02:03.200 Get that going.

00:02:04.140 Ryan, can you hear me?

00:02:05.460 Yes, I can.

00:02:06.420 How's it going, man?

00:02:07.580 Good.

00:02:07.900 How are you doing?

00:02:08.460 I'm doing pretty, pretty well.

00:02:10.440 Thank you for joining me.

00:02:11.800 We were just talking.

00:02:12.720 We were just talking about there's a semaphore article from Dave Weigel.

00:02:16.800 It says Trump's polling is is dropping, but Democrats aren't benefiting.

00:02:21.300 In fact, depending on which polls you compare, Donald Trump's approval rating in aggregate is 45 percent.

00:02:26.740 Democrats favorability, according to a Fox News poll, is 41.

00:02:29.660 And when you look at civics polling, you can see Democrat favorability is 31 percent to Republicans, I think, are at 38.

00:02:38.460 So I'm curious what you're seeing and why the Democrats are doing so miserably, even with all the bad news Trump has been getting.

00:02:45.900 So I did a whole sub stack post about this, my national populist newsletter, and I had a whole episode about this on my podcast called A Numbers Game with Ryan Gradesky.

00:02:55.140 So check that out if you want all the details.

00:02:56.700 But here's the main part.

00:02:58.040 There have been about 12 polls in the last month.

00:03:00.320 ABC, Washington Post, The New York Times, CNN, CBS, Emerson, Fox News.

00:03:04.320 Those are the major ones.

00:03:05.300 And there were two major outliers, right, to get to this 45 percent number for Trump.

00:03:10.880 The two outliers were Atlas Intel and Qantas Insights.

00:03:14.300 And why they are important was Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2024 election cycle.

00:03:19.660 Qantas Insight was the third most accurate pollster.

00:03:22.640 Atlas Intel had Trump at a negative six percent.

00:03:25.960 Qantas Insight had him at a negative three percent.

00:03:28.320 That's not that bad for Trump, especially.

00:03:30.720 It's really good.

00:03:31.540 If you look overall, they brought the aggregate up.

00:03:35.540 It's much worse when you take those out.

00:03:37.160 So I want to put a put a caveat and sit there and say the two most accurate pollsters sit there and say Trump's actually in a better place.

00:03:44.080 And primarily because those two pollsters have a much higher support level among Republicans and among independents.

00:03:51.280 Among Republicans, they average about 85 percent support for Trump, while all the other polls like the Fox News poll and the CNN poll have Trump closer to a 70 percent rating.

00:04:00.720 And I kind of more believe the Atlas Insight and Qantas Insight polls, Atlas Intel and Qantas Insight polls than those Democrats face a problem with branding.

00:04:09.800 People look at the Democratic Party and they think of it as weak on crime, weak on immigration, bad on the economy.

00:04:15.520 Even though they don't like the tariffs and they have a lot of uncertainty about the tariffs and the messaging about the tariffs, the other party is has a branding problem where they just seem bad when their biggest name brands around them are the AOC's and the Bernie Sanders and the social justice warriors on social media who want to talk about trans and kids.

00:04:36.980 That's just, I mean, a branding problem that they can't get away from, especially in like 100 days post the new year and 150 days post election.

00:04:45.960 Is there anybody in the Democratic Party who is counter to the far left or the woke?

00:04:51.520 Yeah, I mean, Josh Shapiro is considered more moderate.

00:04:55.000 Wes Moore, Wes Moore already announced he's not running for president in 2028.

00:04:58.760 That's already over.

00:05:00.420 I don't really know what Gavin Newsom is doing, trying to be a podcast host and, you know, having on right wingers and tell him how much how Charlie Kirk, how much, you know, his kids watch his show.

00:05:09.900 So that's I don't really know what that is.

00:05:13.660 He's trying to do something.

00:05:14.800 But when the rubber meets the road, even like an Andrew Cuomo type who was considered a quote unquote moderate was the guy who said, hey, let's let all the criminals out of jail.

00:05:23.180 So I have not seen a case where a Democratic leader has taken on his party in any substantial way on anything from the trans issue to the crime issue to the immigration issue.

00:05:35.780 You know, you have Bernie Sanders saying there was saying saying on an interview recently, we need to enforce the border.

00:05:41.140 We need to secure the border yet and still voting against every single Trump border policy.

00:05:45.300 You had another congressman from South Southern Texas on the border who voted for the Lake and Riley Act and then immediately went on television to apologize for voting.

00:05:54.660 So that's just I mean, that's just the hypocrisy of them right now is that there's two kinds of people, one who are doing messaging things and the other ones who are doing voting things.

00:06:04.360 And when they vote, they have to unless they're in a ruby red Republican district, they have to apologize.

00:06:10.440 There's a congressman in New York three is a district that Trump won by five points who says I am I am long.

00:06:16.740 I can't remember his name.

00:06:18.660 I had please.

00:06:19.520 I'm from Long Island.

00:06:20.460 I'm a Long Island Republican Democrat, but I'm moderate votes immediately when he gets into Congress again, reelected votes immediately to start allowing transgender girls to play in female biological girl sports.

00:06:32.320 It's an issue that you could not be more popular on.

00:06:35.140 He just couldn't bring himself to vote for it.

00:06:36.860 So I think there is a general fear among the party's base that the Jasmine Crockett's of the of the party really run the show.

00:06:44.540 This is it just doesn't make sense there.

00:06:47.900 It's patently obvious to any reasonable person.

00:06:51.900 The trans in the kids, it's an 80 20 issue.

00:06:54.420 I think it was actually 83 to 17.

00:06:57.080 Most people are like, yeah, don't do that.

00:06:59.380 The women, the women's sports thing. 0.98

00:07:01.780 I.

00:07:03.260 If you're a politician, if you're a Democrat, like you're mentioning this guy in New York where Trump won.

00:07:08.400 Tom Suozzi, that's his time.

00:07:09.680 Is he not thinking to himself?

00:07:11.380 I guess I will lose in 2026.

00:07:13.960 I don't understand.

00:07:15.320 Yeah, he's he's he's hoping his local name brand could sit there and carry him through or that people aren't paying attention.

00:07:21.500 And that's really what they are.

00:07:23.000 Democrats are facing the same problem around the trans issue that Republicans were facing around abortion pre Trump's announcement, which was, hey, if we just don't talk about it, hopefully people will forget our position.

00:07:34.660 And, you know, there's just but there were loudmouth, you know, conservatives who are sitting there and saying, you know, life, you know, life conception begins the moment the date starts.

00:07:44.800 And like they were absolutely no, no wiggle room whatsoever on the abortion issue.

00:07:49.760 And they were the face of the party on the left to the left on the right.

00:07:53.760 There's a million people who are like, oh, no, this is OK.

00:07:57.560 You know, transing children. 0.84

00:07:59.040 There was that one video.

00:08:00.080 I don't know if you saw this girl.

00:08:01.460 She was in a wheelchair.

00:08:02.480 She had severe some kind of severe issue.

00:08:05.580 And she was being trans and she was in she was either down syndrome or autistic, something like that, but clearly nonverbal.

00:08:12.700 And they had just cut her breasts off and they're all celebrating it. 0.93

00:08:16.080 And it looks sickening to the average person. 0.97

00:08:18.720 And I'm sorry, but you own it until you denounce it.

00:08:21.860 And they refuse to denounce it.

00:08:23.360 So they own it.

00:08:25.100 And that's their problem right now where they are too afraid of their own party.

00:08:28.200 There was that one congressman from Massachusetts who immediately upon announcing that, you know, girls, biological girls sports be protected, his his chief consultant quit and they were protesting in front of his office.

00:08:40.820 And he never spoke about it again.

00:08:42.320 What is his name now?

00:08:44.940 Congress Democrat from from northern Massachusetts.

00:08:46.980 I'll think of his name.

00:08:47.820 I remember that.

00:08:48.940 I'm just laughing because I'm like, all of these problems seem easily avoidable for Democrats.

00:08:54.300 Right.

00:08:54.800 Right.

00:08:55.920 They're afraid of their own base.

00:08:57.000 Yeah, but so I don't understand how they expect to actually win anything unless they actually just don't expect to win.

00:09:07.100 Well, they expect to be they expect Trump's negatives to carry them through.

00:09:11.200 And look, Trump does have high negatives in some polling and some constituencies in the country.

00:09:15.140 The tariff messaging has been very wonky and people are a little a little nervous about it yet.

00:09:20.700 And still, you have to be something in order to eventually be in the White House one day.

00:09:26.680 And Democrats, I want to go a little further down the road.

00:09:29.740 Democrats have a problem after the next presidential election in twenty twenty eight.

00:09:34.560 The map is the same as it is now in twenty thirty two and beyond because of the way the population changed and people moving to Texas and Florida.

00:09:41.680 Republicans can win the White House starting in twenty thirty two.

00:09:45.220 So long as they just carry Ohio and the Sun Belt.

00:09:48.680 So North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Florida and Texas, as long as they care that they don't need Pennsylvania anymore.

00:09:55.020 I mean, Michigan, they don't need Wisconsin.

00:09:56.800 They don't need New Hampshire.

00:09:57.580 They don't need Minnesota.

00:09:58.260 They don't need Virginia.

00:09:58.900 All of those states that Democrats are competitive in, they lost the last one.

00:10:04.820 They won the one before they lost.

00:10:06.180 They won whatever those those key swing states.

00:10:08.960 They don't matter anymore just because the census.

00:10:11.960 There is a timetable and they have very short.

00:10:16.020 You know, there's very short runway to sit there and carry themselves off to be a competitive party. 0.92

00:10:22.780 And when you have a person like Wes Moore saying, hey, I'm off the table.

00:10:26.860 You have Josh Shapiro, who has all the personalities that they like, although he does the black summer. 0.95

00:10:31.380 He pretends to be Obama.

00:10:32.900 And and you have Gretchen Whitmer sitting there and cozy him to Trump and Gavin Newsom cozy him to Trump.

00:10:37.480 But the ascending voices in the party are the AOCs and they are the people who are, you know, they're being anti-Trump is the whole personality.

00:10:47.540 It's the entire purpose of them existing.

00:10:50.800 Emanuel Rahm Emanuel, Obama's former chief of staff, and he was a former ambassador and mayor from Chicago.

00:10:57.460 He's thinking about running for president.

00:10:59.200 So he's doing this podcast tour right now.

00:11:01.040 And he's getting absolutely battered because he's running on this moderate issue of like, hey, you know, this is not really great.

00:11:09.260 And there are these podcasts, these left wing podcasts are ripping him to shreds because that's really where the party is.

00:11:15.280 It is a party of college educated white women, black women and, you know, the alphabet soup mafia and and progressive nonprofits. 0.88

00:11:26.040 That's who's there.

00:11:27.200 That's who is there.

00:11:27.860 It doesn't mean that they can't ever win a House seat doesn't mean they can't flip the House.

00:11:31.500 It doesn't mean that Trump's negatives won't matter in these, you know, in these middle of the road House districts.

00:11:36.180 But for a presidency, for the long haul, for these swing states, they have a brand that they have to sit there and either shed or fully embrace or figure out some other way.

00:11:46.060 But there's a very, very, very short runway.

00:11:48.560 2028 is going to be the last time before a decade of hurt comes their way, unless Georgia goes permanently blue or North Carolina does. 0.51

00:11:56.360 But if either one of those two things happen, they have a very hard decade ahead of them.

00:12:01.720 One of the things I was just bringing up is this is why they're so adamant on mass migration.

00:12:06.740 With the net out migration from these blue states you mentioned, the only other solution is going to be bring in as many illegal immigrants as possible. 0.99

00:12:14.720 So when that 2030 census happens, they can maintain some competitive numbers.

00:12:19.560 But I'm curious if that like are they going to be able to do that?

00:12:24.360 I mean, how many how many new illegal immigrants or migrants in general do they need to bring in to California to not lose any seats?

00:12:31.420 And is it even possible?

00:12:32.160 I'm so glad you brought that up because I actually sort of piece about this for the Washington Examiner.

00:12:36.840 So in 2022, right, and then they did the census where they sat there and said these are the estimate number of houses they're going to lose.

00:12:43.300 Illinois, California and New York were a state or slated to win to lose 10 house seats, five from California, three from New York, two from Illinois.

00:12:51.440 Because of both legal and illegal, both legal and illegal, a majority of Americans are leaving those states in droves because they are failed states.

00:13:00.640 They have failed policies.

00:13:01.660 Democrats cannot run states.

00:13:03.960 Both legal and illegal immigrants moved to those states.

00:13:07.380 So when they readjusted it for 2024, that 10 seat loss was brought down to six seats because enough, both legal and illegal, it is legal immigration, too.

00:13:18.680 But enough of them had moved to those states to offset the losses of Americans.

00:13:24.480 Immigration is the only pipeline Democrats have.

00:13:28.080 That being said, they're also moving to Florida and Texas.

00:13:30.860 But North Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee were all slated to gain a house seat.

00:13:34.880 None of them will gain a house seat now at the rate that they're going.

00:13:37.920 But but nonetheless, all those states will lose seats.

00:13:41.560 And there is enough there.

00:13:43.300 All you need is like two or three more seats.

00:13:45.320 And once that once that's there, it's over.

00:13:47.900 And Texas and Florida together without Arizona and Utah and Idaho are going to gain eight seats because both immigrants are going there and Americans are moving there in droves.

00:13:57.400 And there's nothing they could do about it.

00:14:00.020 It's really rough for them.

00:14:01.600 It's a double edged sword, though.

00:14:02.620 The one the one polling area where Trump seems to be doing the best is on immigration.

00:14:06.900 The American people want him to deport people.

00:14:08.820 The border is not broken anymore.

00:14:10.480 We had we had 11,000 border crossings in the first two months of Trump's presidency, border apprehensions, rather than the first two months of Trump's presidency.

00:14:19.780 A year ago, it was like 300,000.

00:14:23.820 It's literally a 96 percent reduction.

00:14:26.780 I mean, overnight, we didn't need any new policies.

00:14:29.820 We need a new president.

00:14:30.880 Trump was right when he said that. 0.89

00:14:32.280 Even the mass deportations, even the, you know, the ones that are getting huge media explosions, it hasn't moved the general public's opinion at all that immigration needs to be fixed and that we need both fewer numbers of legal immigrants.

00:14:48.400 Americans do want less.

00:14:49.700 We bring in 1.1 million legal immigrants per year.

00:14:51.880 They want about 500,000.

00:14:53.300 But they want less legal immigrants.

00:14:55.640 And they also they don't care.

00:14:58.020 They say, no, you broke the law.

00:14:59.460 You have to leave this country.

00:15:01.280 It is your own thing.

00:15:02.640 There is this proposal that Trump has that they're going to pay people $1,000 to leave the country on their own illegal immigrants.

00:15:08.940 Sweden has a policy like that that's been moderately successful.

00:15:11.920 They're actually just increasing to $35,000.

00:15:13.740 But if we have a even a program where if you've been in the country for a year and we can prove it and you want to leave and you have a criminal record and $10,000, that's way faster and way cheaper than going through the courts.

00:15:25.000 Wait, $35,000?

00:15:27.240 Yeah, Sweden's proposing an increase into $35,000 to allow migrants, if they want to leave the country and never return, they get $35,000.

00:15:35.440 $35,000.

00:15:36.100 It's $1,000 in the U.S. right now.

00:15:37.640 The DHS proposal was $1,000.

00:15:40.080 Right.

00:15:40.480 Sweden has $1,000 right now.

00:15:42.000 $35,000.

00:15:42.780 But think about it, Tim, that's an IQ test.

00:15:44.920 Like, if you think, hey, I'm going to make less than $35,000 here, then we really don't need you.

00:15:52.920 Like, I mean, that's a really good way of getting an IQ test going where if you're like, no.

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00:16:52.680 I can stay here.

00:16:54.500 I'll have my own small business.

00:16:55.940 I'll do something really prosperous.

00:16:57.640 If you're liking 35 grand, I'm not going to make that in my whole entire life.

00:17:01.320 Let me just take the cash and go back to Brazil or wherever.

00:17:06.100 That's a good metric for how the kinds of people we should have versus those don't.

00:17:11.360 And once again, we spend way more in the court system and way more time.

00:17:15.820 If this could accelerate it and get people out faster, it's not a bad way of thinking about it.

00:17:20.000 Thinking about how much of net money you'd save, even though it's unjust and they shouldn't get any money.

00:17:24.140 It's a big cost savings to taxpayers.

00:17:26.740 The immigration thing, though, is a double-edged sword is what I was mentioning because Trump's polling so well on it. 0.91

00:17:30.940 But they rely on it to bolster their electoral college votes.

00:17:34.640 There's sort of a terrifying realization in that Democrats know they're engaged in unpopular activities the American voter does not like.

00:17:43.240 But they will gain electoral college votes just because people in their districts will vote Democrat no matter what.

00:17:50.000 So they're outright telling us they don't care for the democratic process.

00:17:54.320 Right.

00:17:54.860 And it's also, think about the unfairness of it.

00:17:56.860 So most immigrants don't vote. 0.94

00:17:58.840 Most illegal immigrants usually don't vote. 0.85

00:18:00.700 I mean, there's a few cases, but not many.

00:18:02.480 But most immigrants don't vote. 0.75

00:18:03.900 So if you're in AOC's district, right, or you're in a district in Los Angeles, a very heavy immigrant district,

00:18:09.580 you really only need like 90,000 votes to win because most people who live in the district who make it up aren't voting.

00:18:16.560 If you live in Ohio or New Hampshire or a state with a district that's very populated, equally populated, but has a lot more registered voters,

00:18:24.620 you need a quarter of a million or 300,000 votes to win.

00:18:27.840 It really becomes an unfair system as a whole for candidates and Americans who have much their vote counts for.

00:18:35.300 Your vote counts a lot more in a district that's heavily immigrant because most of those people who are represented in the census,

00:18:41.240 represented in the district, cannot vote for or against you.

00:18:44.660 That's part of the unfairness.

00:18:46.300 And if we didn't, if we sat there and said, hey, let's have a freeze, let's reduce numbers and let's deport illegals, 1.00

00:18:52.540 you know, maybe Texas and Florida would lose a House seat as well, as well as New York, California and Illinois losing a ton.

00:18:58.820 But Ohio, Indiana, you know, North Carolina, those states with overrepresented populations of actual American citizens would also gain seats as well.

00:19:08.260 And that is the only way Democrats are keeping these sinking ships alive.

00:19:12.080 New York City, New York State, California, Illinois, these are, I mean, Illinois is such a failed state.

00:19:17.380 A couple of years ago, someone won the lottery, the state lottery, and they couldn't even cash it because they couldn't pay the guy who won the lottery.

00:19:23.340 Like imagine like quitting your job, telling your boss to F off and you can't get your lottery ticket cashed in.

00:19:27.680 But that's how broke some of these states are.

00:19:30.520 And they don't have, their only way of facilitating a, you know, anything is by sitting there and having immigrants come in and pour in. 0.83

00:19:41.040 But there is a, this is a very immediate issue.

00:19:44.480 One of the other issues that I've been tracking is the population decline.

00:19:48.000 So Gen Alpha right now is projecting to end this year and there's only about 40 to 42 million, which is a dramatic drop off.

00:19:55.860 You've got 69 million Gen Z, 72 million millennials, I think around 69 million Gen Xers.

00:20:01.940 In the next 10 years, starting, starting right now, actually, they're calling it the demographic cliff, where because of the financial crisis in 2007, you didn't have anybody having kids.

00:20:12.540 We're supposed to have a bunch of 18 year olds right now entering that workforce.

00:20:15.640 There's also that argument.

00:20:16.820 And I don't know how Trump answers that.

00:20:19.000 And I know he's offered up that, that baby bonus, but that's not going to do anything for us in the immediate in terms of the labor, labor force.

00:20:25.640 Democrats have been arguing immigration reverses this.

00:20:29.120 And there's even been some never Trumpers who have argued mass migration to replace our decimated workforce.

00:20:34.560 Either way, it sounds like, you know, I feel like if we do that, then it's going to disrupt the like the American tradition.

00:20:42.460 It's going to shift the culture dramatically.

00:20:44.420 It's going the people who come.

00:20:46.480 I'm not saying they're bad people, but they don't have the same worldview or values.

00:20:49.680 Of course.

00:20:50.380 But then there's also the concern.

00:20:51.920 No, people.

00:20:54.040 Yeah, this is this is my episode for a numbers game coming up for my podcast numbers game coming up this Thursday.

00:20:59.020 So 2007, this class, sorry, 2025, the high school class is graduating right now is the biggest population, sheer population size of high school graduates that ever existed.

00:21:09.000 And so far that ever will exist.

00:21:10.820 It's gotten smaller every single class size since the graduating class of 2042 will be smaller than the class of 2025 because people had less and less children.

00:21:19.920 Two, three primary issues.

00:21:21.300 One, the the group that actually had the biggest drop off on birth rates were Latinos in the mid 2000s.

00:21:27.760 But as they assimilated, they didn't have three children, more Hispanics of like one point nine on average.

00:21:32.200 Blacks have very black Americans have very few children. 1.00

00:21:35.260 They actually have fewer children than whites do now. 0.98

00:21:37.320 Wow.

00:21:37.740 I know that. 0.99

00:21:38.520 Oh, you know, black, black, black, black fertility has plummeted. 1.00

00:21:44.000 There's virtually no teen pregnancy anymore, especially not compared to the 90s.

00:21:47.580 When you and I were growing up, that doesn't exist in the same numbers whatsoever.

00:21:51.200 And the white numbers have declined, but not nearly what black or Hispanic numbers have.

00:21:55.680 Hispanic numbers are higher than whites.

00:21:56.880 But a lot of that is actually due to migration and immigration.

00:22:00.520 Remember, there's two things I want you to think about.

00:22:02.120 One, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, these big, big countries, they all have more deaths per year than they do have births.

00:22:10.320 All of these countries, their fertility rate have all plummeted.

00:22:13.120 In the future, in 10 years from now, China will be a net importer of workers.

00:22:17.400 India will be a net importer of workers.

00:22:19.620 So will Mexico. 0.97

00:22:20.560 They will all need low skill workers.

00:22:22.640 There is going to be fewer and fewer countries that have the population of young people to fill those jobs.

00:22:30.660 Two, our workforce participation rate is still only 62.6%.

00:22:35.340 It used to be over 68%.

00:22:37.340 The financial crisis took 6% of the labor force and they never came back.

00:22:42.700 6% labor force never came back after the 2007 financial crisis.

00:22:46.720 They need to be reengaged in some capacity whatsoever.

00:22:49.120 And then as far as a baby bump goes, there are alternatives the government can do, both local, state, and federal, to sit there and increase birth rates.

00:22:56.340 But they have to be very, very smart about it.

00:22:58.080 Building condominiums in cities where they have a two-bedroom, two-bathroom, and 1,000 square feet is not how you facilitate growing families.

00:23:05.980 It's just not.

00:23:07.100 There's a lot of things that they could do that they've not been smart about.

00:23:10.240 They've never even approached it.

00:23:11.860 So immigration, yes, it could do it.

00:23:14.220 But there are a lot of downsides.

00:23:15.980 You mentioned civic engagement.

00:23:17.160 You mentioned society.

00:23:17.860 There's a famous, famous book called Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam from 2000.

00:23:23.060 The number one thing that degrades and declines civic engagement, civic nationalism, anything to do with wanting to be around people like you and different than you is mass immigration. 1.00

00:23:34.280 It's the worst, worst, worst thing that you could do for a society when it comes to social capital and social trust.

00:23:39.140 So there are a lot of downsides.

00:23:40.700 There are ways to grow the native population, and they should pursue them on every course.

00:23:45.080 But what's going to happen in the United States?

00:23:47.520 I mean, our labor force is shrinking.

00:23:50.020 Our labor force is shrinking, but also a third of our labor force is not even in the labor market.

00:23:54.840 35% of people between ages 18 to 64 who are not in school and are not retired are not working.

00:24:01.880 Neat.

00:24:02.020 So there's a lot of domestic labor to find if we can sit there and engage them. 0.99

00:24:06.140 I think that that's part of it.

00:24:07.640 I think that's how you deal with it in the middle, and then you sit there and work on trying to increase birth rates going forward.

00:24:12.560 Do you think it's possible that, I'll put it this way, the cultural issues we are facing, right?

00:24:20.180 You've got millennials are finally starting to have kids in their 30s.

00:24:24.780 They were failure to launch, developmentally delayed, whatever.

00:24:28.660 I think that there was a major cultural shift, either intentionally, I don't know if it was intentional, but you have people saying the world's overpopulated, don't have kids.

00:24:37.740 You've got the New York Times saying climate change, don't have kids.

00:24:40.780 How do you reverse a cultural trend like that?

00:24:45.560 You know, it's one thing to say, hey, we're going to make plans.

00:24:48.380 We're going to encourage people to have kids.

00:24:49.740 But you've got ingrained, entrenched ideologies in this country that say don't do it.

00:24:55.220 Right.

00:24:55.440 So there's two things.

00:24:56.240 So the only two countries, the Western countries that have large population of children, Israel and the nation of Georgia.

00:25:01.480 And the nation of Georgia, they had actually really bad fertility rates.

00:25:04.260 And the patriarch, basically their version of the pope, the patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox Church, back in 2000, I want to say it's 15, 16, announced that for every third child born in the country, he was going to personally baptize them and people get selfies and whatnot.

00:25:17.080 And actually birth rates skyrocket.

00:25:19.020 Wow.

00:25:19.740 Yeah.

00:25:20.460 But the biggest thing that actually enables birth rates are birth rates.

00:25:25.220 People have more children because they're around more children.

00:25:27.820 And I think that's part of it.

00:25:29.080 There's also a huge difference between conservatives and liberals.

00:25:31.180 Conservatives are having a decent amount of children.

00:25:34.060 Liberals have virtually none.

00:25:35.920 And young, I mean, that's just the truth.

00:25:37.540 There's a huge divide.

00:25:39.200 And I think that if you have, listen, if you're a conservative parent and you have a daughter, make sure that they don't surround themselves by liberals who tell them that hating kids is the whole thing.

00:25:48.520 I think people need to have a readjustment and the cultures of readjustment saying having kids is a sacrifice.

00:25:53.640 It's a lot, but at the same time, the reward is far outnumbers the cost benefit.

00:25:58.720 I mean, I recently had my first kid.

00:26:00.900 I don't think it was a sacrifice at all.

00:26:02.800 I feel like a lot of those narratives, they tell people to prioritize.

00:26:08.540 You live in the middle of the woods by yourself.

00:26:10.440 Your idea of a good time is hanging with the chickens.

00:26:12.980 So yeah, for other people, there's a sacrifice of time, there's a sacrifice of money, but not all sacrifice is a bad thing.

00:26:19.640 Going to the gym is a sacrifice, but there's benefits to it.

00:26:22.680 Like, you know what I mean?

00:26:23.380 Eating well is a bit of a sacrifice.

00:26:25.660 It's much easier to get bad food, but the sacrifices pay off.

00:26:29.460 Having kids is a sacrifice.

00:26:30.720 You give up something, but you get a whole lot more.

00:26:33.580 Sacrifice is not a bad word. 0.99

00:26:35.060 Yeah, but I do feel like for a lot of liberals, they're told that—we were just talking about this on the IRL the other day—maximize your pleasure, minimize your pain, so don't bother having kids because you're just living for the now nihilism.

00:26:52.820 I've been arguing for a long time.

00:26:54.280 I guess the end result, it doesn't matter if we're arguing against liberals.

00:26:57.480 They're not having kids.

00:26:59.440 No, they're not.

00:26:59.880 We are seeing that Gen Z, there's a huge uptick in Christianity, there is a trend towards the right, and there's a lot of people who think it's because we've won the arguments, that conservatives—I say we as in they.

00:27:13.120 I don't consider myself to be overtly conservative, but this political space has a better argument, and young people are drifting towards freedom, meritocracy, etc.

00:27:21.220 I actually think that's a tiny component of it.

00:27:23.940 If you look at the 2000s—

00:27:25.820 Yeah, and I'll say two things.

00:27:28.620 One, I think that a problem for millennials, and as a millennial, I think we were told that we have more time than we do.

00:27:33.640 I think a lot of millennials were told, oh, no, everyone can have a kid at age 40 and have no problems whatsoever, which is not true.

00:27:40.320 And secondly, I think that if places were really serious about trying to get people started younger in life and not due to Gen Alpha like they did to Gen Z, to Gen Millennials, rather,

00:27:51.540 I don't see why we can't figure out accelerated programs in schools to get kids out of college by 20 and get kids out of high school by 16 or 17.

00:28:00.880 I don't know why we have to—if they're capable, if they're smart, if they can get into—get some kind of a fellowship program or work program, getting them to adulthood faster will also make them have children faster.

00:28:12.460 I think that is part of it.

00:28:13.740 Going to school until you're mid to late 20s is just—I mean, that's the way you just forbid people to have kids because they have to go to school for so long.

00:28:22.660 Right.

00:28:22.900 I mean, they're getting out of school and they're 22 or 24.

00:28:24.880 That's nuts.

00:28:25.320 But that's why I'm a big fan of, you know, Trump's moves against the Department of Education, reforming all of these things.

00:28:32.060 I think if we're going to have school systems, I prefer pod education, like your communities come together.

00:28:38.320 I also think it's insane to me that our schooling system in public schools is a one-size-fits-all because that's just not correct. 1.00

00:28:46.620 Some kids are stupid. 1.00

00:28:47.780 Some kids are smart. 1.00

00:28:48.660 You can't put them all in the same place and say, good luck, because the smart kids are going to be like, why am I sitting here doing nothing? 0.99

00:28:53.860 And the dumb kids are going to be saying, this is too fast. 0.99

00:28:56.560 So that change has to happen. 0.99

00:28:58.340 But, you know, my point on the birth stuff is in 20 years, there's just no liberals.

00:29:04.140 Their values will largely fade away with the fact that they don't reproduce.

00:29:09.340 And I know that—

00:29:09.880 Yeah, I mean, yeah, that's—I mean, there'll always be some conservative kids who are going to become a liberal, but—and, like, there were some liberal kids who become conservative.

00:29:16.200 But that is a big thing in those values if those populations grow and where they're growing naturally.

00:29:21.200 You know, there's a town, like, called St. Mary's, Kansas.

00:29:23.960 You wouldn't know this town, but it's a town of, like, Latin mass Catholics.

00:29:26.520 They're very traditional, very religious, but it's not like a cult.

00:29:29.380 You can buy a house there if you want to.

00:29:31.020 It's in rural Kansas.

00:29:32.140 Their average population in this town is, like, 25.

00:29:35.300 All the surrounding rural areas are, like, 57, 58.

00:29:38.220 It—by convening around like-minded people of equal values or conservative values, that tends to, like, promote the idea of having families around those things.

00:29:50.900 And you've seen that in other parts of the country.

00:29:52.600 That's a very, very big part of it because it's just in the middle of nowhere.

00:29:55.500 But that's how you're seeing these other smaller areas of populations sit there and grow is by like-mindedness and by communal beliefs around ideas of religion, family, faith, freedom, all that other stuff.

00:30:09.080 Last question for you.

00:30:10.800 Quick one, I suppose.

00:30:13.020 Fox News poll said that Democrats are down relative to Republicans, but still Democrats are favored to win in 2026.

00:30:19.060 I'm wondering what you think happens.

00:30:20.720 I know we have a long way from the midterms, but based on what we're seeing now, how's it going to play out?

00:30:25.660 Because the Republicans have such a small majority, there's two things to consider.

00:30:30.480 One, if Ohio redistricts, right, there's three House seats in Ohio that Republicans could redistrict and do mid-cycle redistricting to make them Republican.

00:30:38.120 That would at least bolster some of the numbers.

00:30:40.560 The last environment was a R plus two.

00:30:42.460 If it goes to a D plus two, which is a four-point swing, the good thing for Republicans is that there's 13 Democrats in Trump one seats.

00:30:50.600 Republicans can pick off a few of those.

00:30:52.800 It's much harder for Democrats to pick up for Trump seats because there's only three Republicans in Kamala seats.

00:30:58.640 And they're much closer towards the middle than the Trump seats, where there's a handful of Democrats who will be the last Democrat to ever represent the area.

00:31:07.780 Henry Cular, for example, down in South Texas.

00:31:10.360 He's the last Marcy Captur from Ohio.

00:31:12.180 These are dinosaurs who are the last ones to hold their seats.

00:31:14.840 It's there's if the realignment continues, if Hispanics and young people show up and they still vote Republican, Republicans, even if they lose the House, it won't be by very much.

00:31:24.040 Well, Ryan, it's been a blast.

00:31:25.300 Thanks for joining me.

00:31:25.880 Where can people find you?

00:31:27.100 Go on Twitter at Ryan Gerdusky.

00:31:28.620 My podcast, A Numbers Game.

00:31:30.120 Please listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you listen to podcasts.

00:31:33.280 And my newsletter is a national populist newsletter on Substack.

00:31:36.440 You can go to natpopnewsletter.com.

00:31:38.820 All right, on, man.

00:31:39.540 Thanks for hanging out.

00:31:40.520 It's been a blast.

00:31:41.020 We'll see you soon.

00:31:41.520 Thank you.

00:31:43.680 All right.

00:31:44.880 Well, that was fun.

00:31:46.560 Always great to get the insights from from Ryan here.

00:31:49.080 And I hope he's right about those midterms.

00:31:52.020 So, my friends, make sure you smash that like button.

00:31:54.280 Share the show with everyone.

00:31:55.220 You know, we will.

00:31:55.740 We, of course, will be rating our good friend Russell Brand, who is, I believe, is coming up right now.

00:32:01.660 Let me grab that link for you guys.

00:32:03.380 And then, of course, we're going to be back with more segments throughout the day.

00:32:06.560 And we are going to be live at 8 p.m. for Timcast IRL.

00:32:11.420 I'm going to grab that link.

00:32:12.700 We're going to launch that raid for you guys.

00:32:15.760 Send you all over to hang out with Russell.

00:32:18.800 Get it going.

00:32:20.700 Let me see if I can grab, I think I got a minute.

00:32:22.840 I can grab a Rumble rant real quick, right?

00:32:25.100 I tried to get those in, but since we started doing these, oh, I can't read it now.

00:32:31.520 All right.

00:32:31.980 We had just one, but I'm not going to be able to get to it because I can't read it.

00:32:37.080 So, my friends, follow me on X and Instagram at Timcast.

00:32:40.160 Thank you so much for hanging out.

00:32:42.540 It's going to be interesting.

00:32:44.880 There's a lot going on and also a little going on with the constant battle between Trump and the Democrats.

00:32:50.180 Basically, anything he does being negative, you always have that story lingering, but I got to be honest.

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00:33:50.720 It gets droll and repetitive.

00:33:53.560 So, of course, we're here, you know, we're doing production behind the scenes, and we're trying to find stories we care about that's—I'll put it this way.

00:34:01.440 You know, I did a segment a little while ago about GTA 6.

00:34:04.120 The game got delayed.

00:34:04.840 And I was like, I don't know, I just—that mattered to me, I guess.

00:34:10.020 But there's something to consider for us here as we age and we care about different things.

00:34:15.640 The same is true for those that watch the show, the core audience.

00:34:19.780 And so what the younger generation cares about is going to be different from what we care about.

00:34:23.520 And when you get dry politics, like, basically, I'll put it this way, Democrats are failing so miserably, they're not making news anymore.

00:34:29.620 And so it's just, what did Trump do today?

00:34:32.400 So that seems to be what's dominating in the news cycle, my friends.

The Culture War - Tim Pool - May 06, 2025

Democrats IMPLODING Despite Trump SMEARS, Democrats Polling IS WORSE ft. Ryan Girdusky

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