The Culture War - Tim Pool - Democrats IN TROUBLE As Polls Show GOP LEADING Favorability For Midterms In SHOCK TWIST

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00:00:13.920 Yeah.

00:00:15.080 This November, we face the most important election of our lives.

00:00:21.220 Because literally every election is the most important election of our lives.

00:00:25.580 Because it's the one that's addressing the current problems.

00:00:29.180 But the issue is, will Donald Trump be able to hold on to the House and the Senate or will Democrats take back power and then shut down his second term agenda?

00:00:41.120 Well, the prediction is, though things were pretty good about seven, eight months ago, Republicans were trending towards keeping the House and the Senate, which would buck the historical trends.

00:00:51.560 Notably, every time a president gets in and there's a midterm, the other party takes the

00:00:56.260 House because, well, what Trump does is motivating to Democrats and less so to conservatives

00:01:02.340 and Republicans.

00:01:03.180 If you're a Republican largely happy with what Trump is doing, you're not motivated.

00:01:08.120 And if you're a Democrat being told the end is nine, we have to get out and do something.

00:01:12.340 Well, now you're motivated to do it.

00:01:13.940 Well, since last year, things have gotten precipitously worse and it's looking like

00:01:19.180 Republicans are going to lose the House. However, there is some pretty dang good news for the

00:01:26.120 Republicans. We've got CNN's data guru saying that the GOP may actually keep the Senate thanks

00:01:31.820 to the Democrats' historically low midterm lead. Wait, wait, wait, hold on. How? What's going on?

00:01:38.680 I kid you not. Yes, it's looking good for Democrats in the midterm to take the House.

00:01:44.020 And this is going to mean subpoenas. It's going to mean depositions. People are going to go to jail

00:01:49.260 like they did last time with contempt of Congress claims and filings. They're going to obstruct

00:01:55.060 Trump. They're going to impeach him. But hold on. They're struggling to actually get there,

00:02:00.460 which is kind of weird. Democrats should have no problem steamrolling Trump. I mean,

00:02:05.780 his approval rating is down, but actually his approval rating is still higher than where

00:02:11.540 Obama's was and George W. Bush's was at the same time in their second terms. Trump actually is

00:02:18.760 trending moderately the same, I guess. And when you factor that in and then realize that Democrats

00:02:25.720 lead is historically low, I got to say, there's a little bit of optimism to be had for Republicans

00:02:32.020 that you're going to do better than people are actually predicting. These prediction markets

00:02:37.440 are saying it's going to be particularly brutal. Now, with all that being said, I don't want to be

00:02:41.520 just some guy blasting off copium and hopium, although those memes for that are familiar

00:02:47.140 basically mean like we want to be optimistic, right? But I want to be realistic to the data

00:02:52.680 trends that we have seen from the previous polls and special elections indicate a 10 point surge

00:02:58.260 for Democrats in the House and other statewide elections indicating they could theoretically

00:03:04.800 pull off a major supermajority or just strong majority in the House. They could get 10 seats.

00:03:13.220 Now, I don't know that that will really happen because that seems pretty dang extreme. 0.87

00:03:17.460 But I got to tell you, we got Candace Owens coming out saying Trump is satanic and needs to be 0.90

00:03:22.320 impeached and removed. And when you see former Trump supporters breaking and calling him the

00:03:28.080 mad king, saying he must be ousted, I got to tell you, Trump's going to lose a lot of support

00:03:33.420 for this midterm. And he's the principal motivator for people. You know, in his first

00:03:37.740 term in 2018, when Democrats took the House, it was, well, the reason for it is that Trump

00:03:43.040 supporters did not come out for non-Trump candidates. Trump is the true motivating

00:03:48.000 factor for the Republicans right now. That's why his endorsements are so important. But there is

00:03:53.640 something else here outside of the polls, and that is the death of the corporate media and how

00:03:58.420 social media will play a role. Recently, everyone's favorite Nate Silver put out bunk data where he's

00:04:05.720 basically he says social media is a freak show. Why? Because everyone is right wing on social

00:04:10.680 media. Aside from the fact that the data is largely fake, just wrong, and he won't retract it because

00:04:16.840 he wants to make a point. His real complaint is that the New York Times is not getting engagement

00:04:23.120 and pictures of puppies. Well, they are. Seriously? Okay, well, let's take them at face value.

00:04:30.000 If Nate Silver's data is correct, it means that no one cares about the corporate press

00:04:34.740 narrative anymore. And they're largely motivated by, yes, cat turd. If you don't know what that

00:04:41.100 means, it's a guy on X who's got massive engagement, is massively pro-Trump, and he

00:04:47.840 does way better than the New York Times. Now, I think the reality is Nate Silver's data is just

00:04:54.120 largely wrong. However, it is true that the Internet X particularly does have a right wing

00:05:01.480 bias. And I think that's because reality has a right wing bias. And thus, we may be doomsayers

00:05:08.460 worried about what's going to happen this November. The truth is, I don't think it's

00:05:12.500 going to be as bad for Republicans as many people are letting on. And I don't know if that's a good

00:05:17.100 thing or a bad thing. Some say it's a good thing to threaten that the Democrats will take over

00:05:22.660 because that will be a big motivator for Republicans to get out. While others argue,

00:05:26.620 if you keep saying Democrats are going to win, Republicans will say, then what's the point of

00:05:30.000 turning out at all? Well, let's take a look at the data, my friends, and we'll break it all down.

00:05:34.760 Before we do, head over to TimCast.com and click join now. Why? It's not what you know,

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00:05:58.360 at TimCast.com. Maybe you've got a project you want to start, you don't know where to begin.

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00:06:20.700 and you think it's important, being a member makes it happen. So share this video with everyone you

00:06:25.660 know if you really want to help out and join us at TimCast.com. Here's the report from Mediaite.

00:06:31.500 CNN data guru reveals GOP may keep the Senate thanks to Democrats historically low midterm

00:06:37.780 lead. Well, let's roll tape, my friends. Great discussion there. So in the latest CNN poll,

00:06:42.620 It showed that Democrats have a six-point lead in the race for Congress.

00:06:48.140 Now, there are two ways to look at that, a six-point lead.

00:06:50.760 One, and say, hey, the Democrats are ahead there.

00:06:53.300 Democrats should feel good about that.

00:06:55.000 The other way to look at it is to say, for Democrats, is six points really enough?

00:07:00.120 CNN chief data analyst, Harry Etten, is here.

00:07:03.640 And that's the way that I think a lot of people are beginning to question this.

00:07:07.060 Given the political wins and whatnot, is six points really a big enough lead for Democrats?

00:07:11.020 Well, I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with the Republican president.

00:07:18.280 Because take a look here, I'm taking a look at the average of all the polls.

00:07:21.840 Demgeneric congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with the Republican president.

00:07:26.380 On average, their lead's actually slightly less.

00:07:28.420 It's five points.

00:07:29.380 That's less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points.

00:07:36.820 So, yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they're only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on minus 20 to minus 30, depending on what polls you look at.

00:07:48.080 You'd make the argument Democrats should be way ahead.

00:07:50.400 And they're just only sort of slightly ahead.

00:07:53.220 Now, to be clear, five points might be enough for them to retake the House, which is really a narrow margin.

00:07:58.460 Would not take much at all for Democrats to get this.

00:08:01.060 Would blow it.

00:08:01.760 The Senate is a different matter.

00:08:03.640 Yeah, the Senate is a different matter.

00:08:04.840 I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map.

00:08:12.280 Why do I say that? Because let's just take a look. GOP would win the Senate with this map.

00:08:16.200 Let's say Republicans only hold on to the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points.

00:08:21.420 That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49.

00:08:25.100 Why? Because what you would see is you would see that the Democrats would flip North Carolina.

00:08:29.760 they would flip Maine, but Republicans would hold on to Ohio, they'd hold on to Texas, 0.98

00:08:35.800 and they'd hold on to Alaska because Donald Trump won all of those states by greater than 10 points.

00:08:42.580 And I will note, John and I were talking, we have the NCAA tournament going on.

00:08:46.380 This is sort of the chalk scenario going on where the most obvious events actually do occur.

00:08:51.640 Because take a look, during the Trump era, look at this, flip the Senate seat, midterm and

00:08:55.760 presidential years. States the other party won by 10 plus points in the last presidential election.

00:09:00.560 Zero, zero, zero times did a party flip those states. So we're talking about places like Texas,

00:09:05.980 Alaska, Ohio, where Trump won by double digits. Which is why the Democrats might need a bigger

00:09:11.040 lead than they have now if the Senate is really in play. What else is going on now for the

00:09:17.280 Democrats that maybe should cause them concern? What might cause them concern? Why is that generic

00:09:21.620 congressional ballot leads so low because just take a look at this net favorability party ahead

00:09:26.280 at this point midterm of years with the GOP president in 2018 Dems were up by 12 in 2006

00:09:31.720 on net favorability which party like more Dems were ahead by 18 Republicans are actually ahead

00:09:36.460 on net favorability at this point by five points so Democrats are just simply put running behind

00:09:41.800 their previous benchmarks and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take

00:09:45.620 back the United States Senate given that math to be clear both parties are wildly unfavorable right

00:09:50.600 that. However, Democrats are even more unpopular. Indeed, my friends, isn't that a wild way to put

00:09:57.860 it? And so I look at what's going on in social media and I am flabbergasted is the only way I

00:10:02.820 can say when I see these personalities say like Trump is satanic and a demon and all this and

00:10:07.340 they're getting massive engagement. I'm sitting here being like, what reality is this? Guys,

00:10:11.540 I understand that both parties are deeply unfavorable. I comment on politics. I talk to

00:10:17.560 people all the time. I do my own kind of polling when I'm talking to strangers. I'm kidding. Like

00:10:22.860 we all talk to people we know and random people, people we might bump into or meet. And the

00:10:28.340 narrative seems to be pretty static. I mean, the Republicans of the less crazy political party

00:10:34.340 were upset with the war, but Trump is the better choice. Right now in Kelshi, they are predicting

00:10:40.920 at 86 percent the Democrats will take the House. But I'm going to push back a little bit and say,

00:10:46.480 I think that's overvalued. I really do. When you take a look at the 270 to win map for the House,

00:10:53.120 Democrats are certainly favored, but there are 18 seats that are considered toss ups. We don't

00:10:58.840 know for sure. Theoretically, Republicans could end up with 224 seats. Republicans theoretically

00:11:05.720 could expand their control in the House. I say theoretically because I want to point out Trump's

00:11:11.160 going to need a Hail Mary if he's going to make this one work. I mean, he's going to need a

00:11:16.180 miracle. Maybe miracles are the right way to describe it. But even with Democrats lead,

00:11:22.120 it is historically low. And perhaps the polling data may be wrong. Now, the one big factor in

00:11:29.600 all of this, which freaks me out the most, of course, is how these Democrat states are trying

00:11:35.320 to redistrict just in time for the midterms. And one of the most shockingly insane things I have

00:11:41.300 ever seen. Because we are very close to Virginia, we see these commercials running on TV. They run

00:11:48.880 on ads on our social media. I am watching, well, I was watching baseball yesterday, as one does on

00:11:55.040 a beautiful Sunday Easter. And a commercial runs in Virginia where they said, vote yes to protect

00:12:02.420 our elections. What was it really about? Well, it's funny because my wife says it before I even

00:12:07.560 said anything. She goes, they're lying. They're trying to redistrict the state to eliminate the

00:12:12.060 Republicans. And I was like, correct. And the crazy thing about it is there are five districts

00:12:18.020 that they all have with tiny little strips converge near Arlington, which is weird. I think

00:12:24.460 it was Arlington, maybe Fairfax at the county, but they all converge in this DC ish hyper urban

00:12:33.320 concentration of liberals. If the state redistricts that way, they're turning one district into five

00:12:40.060 and cutting out the Republicans. So it may not matter if Democrats are actually unfavorable if

00:12:46.780 they cheat. Now, I got to be fair and say, is it really cheating? Well, I would argue in the spirit

00:12:52.600 of elections, of course it is. The way our elections are supposed to work is a popular

00:12:56.800 vote, not a procedural one. But this is how everything's been going. It is a procedural vote.

00:13:03.320 That is, they simply just need to manufacture as many numbers as possible to win.

00:13:09.300 No, they don't come to you and say, listen, here's my argument for a better country.

00:13:14.160 Please vote for me.

00:13:14.820 They come to you and say, rig the game on my behalf so I get more points than that guy.

00:13:20.400 Yeah, that's not real, right?

00:13:23.480 It's like soccer, you know?

00:13:24.920 Soccer's not real.

00:13:26.300 Did I offend soccer fans?

00:13:27.580 Maybe.

00:13:27.840 But when you have people falling down and acting like they broke their legs for, you know, to get some kind of benefit in the game, that's not real.

00:13:37.020 Come on.

00:13:38.080 We all know they're faking it.

00:13:39.780 Soccer falls.

00:13:41.160 I'm kidding.

00:13:41.960 I'm not trying to be mean to all the soccer fans out there for which there are many.

00:13:44.420 But come on, you get it.

00:13:45.700 Like, when some Democrat wins because they changed the game, am I supposed to be like, wow, we're really happy with our popular governance?

00:13:53.520 We've got a few factors to consider here, however.

00:13:56.060 we have Politico, how the GOP's fraud crackdown could impact the midterms. While many Republicans

00:14:01.180 approve of tackling fraud, the Trump admin's recent efforts may not be enough to overcome

00:14:05.880 concerns about higher costs. The state J.D. Vance and the Center for Medicare and Medicaid

00:14:11.080 Administrator Mehmet Oz are taking high profile roles in the fight. Vance kicked off a new fraud

00:14:16.640 task task force this spring. In Congress, several House committees have launched their own

00:14:21.560 investigations. The looming question, will the all hands Republican fraud crackdown translate

00:14:26.200 to votes at a time when Americans are laser focused on the high cost of living, including

00:14:31.180 hiked Obamacare premiums? Republicans argue it will help shift the spotlight off complaints

00:14:36.780 about health care and affordability during Trump's first year in office, as well as counter

00:14:40.800 Democratic attacks over the more than one trillion in Medicaid cuts in the last year's

00:14:44.840 one big, beautiful bill act. Excuse me. The Medicaid reforms, which include expanded work

00:14:50.420 requirements were focused on trying to address fraud, such as integrity checks, said Energy and

00:14:57.740 Commerce Chairman Brett Guthrie. We are seeing the fraud. We are seeing the fraud that we are

00:15:03.100 trying to solve. Guthrie said voters want to see it addressed. I always say good governance is good

00:15:08.820 politics and addressing fraud is good politics. Indeed, cracking down on fraud can help Republicans

00:15:15.000 reinforce a message of accountability and stewardship, but it's not a substitute for

00:15:18.320 addressing what voters care about cutting health costs, says Joel White, a GOP health strategist.

00:15:23.160 Well, my friends, what I'd like to point out for the most part is that Democrats have been

00:15:29.680 complaining about being unable to fund these medical programs and said, you know, if we just

00:15:33.880 text the rich, we can fund everything, which is just not true. It's always been a lie. And I'll

00:15:39.820 explain why. First, we have a lot of fraud. We know a lot of fraud. And that's the Republican

00:15:44.480 angle. Republican angle is if we cut the billions in fraud, which you find in Minnesota, Ohio and

00:15:48.160 California, we will have more money for these programs. That's true. Will it be enough to fund

00:15:52.960 all of them? I don't know, but it's a good PR swing, right? Hey, we got a billion dollars in

00:15:57.400 fraud. Let's get that money back. I don't know that's going to put a dent in the budget in terms

00:16:01.080 of funding a lot of programs, but a billion dollars is a billion dollars. Now, if you were

00:16:04.600 to tax Bezos on his wealth, he'd have to liquidate assets, destroying the value of those assets.

00:16:09.140 And we're talking largely about Amazon stock. The same thing is true for Elon with SpaceX,

00:16:13.260 Tesla or otherwise. Tesla stock would crumble if Elon was forced by law to liquidate those assets

00:16:18.940 to turn over to the government once every year. It would destroy the value of these companies.

00:16:23.440 In turn, Elon would be worth less money and not be able to actually, or actually more importantly,

00:16:28.640 not be eligible for those wealth tax schemes anyway. Over the long period, you gut and eviscerate the

00:16:34.060 wealth that you claim to be taxing and then there's nothing to tax. So wealth tax just literally

00:16:38.100 don't make sense. It's an excuse by Democrats to try and come up with a reason why it's someone

00:16:44.520 else's fault. We're not paying your programs. Well, listen, if you can't fund the programs

00:16:49.160 without stripping the assets of somebody else, then you can't fund the programs. It would be a

00:16:54.000 time bomb. If you are fraudulently giving money away, well, then you can at least get that money

00:16:59.940 back. Neither of these are solutions. At least one is practical. Well, Newsweek says Democrats

00:17:06.040 get record-breaking boost heading into the midterms. Democrats say candidate recruitment

00:17:11.280 is reaching historic levels ahead of the midterms. Indeed. They're reporting record-setting

00:17:17.560 candidate recruitment across state legislative races as well as the party ramps up preparations

00:17:22.560 for the midterm elections, according to a new release from the Democratic Legislative Campaign

00:17:27.280 Committee. State Democrats are shattering recruitment records across the country,

00:17:31.800 President Heather Williams said, pointing to a surge in candidates filing to run in battleground

00:17:35.960 traditionally red and reliably blue states. Party officials attribute the trend to earlier

00:17:41.800 investment in organizing infrastructure, staffing and support for legislative causes.

00:17:46.520 I'm going to go ahead and counter this, my friends, and say propaganda. This is actually

00:17:52.100 really bad news for Democrats. It means there's massive infighting. You see, when a party is

00:17:57.540 unified, they have a single candidate they typically are OK with and they don't get

00:18:01.700 primaried. What we are seeing now is that Democrats are seeing record candidate recruitment.

00:18:06.640 What does that mean? It means tons of people are upset with each other and they're fighting each

00:18:11.480 other for control of the party. I know, maybe a bit extreme of me to explain it that way.

00:18:15.780 The truth is there are a lot of highly motivated Democrats and the good news for them is

00:18:19.080 this motivation is going to translate into activity at the ballot box in November.

00:18:23.520 The problem, however, is that if progressives and the moderate Dems are fighting each other,

00:18:28.400 they're not voting for each other. So when they claim that there is massive recruitment at the

00:18:33.120 state level for people to run for office, yeah, they're implying that there are people challenging

00:18:37.420 the infrastructure of the Democratic Party. These people are not likely going to vote

00:18:42.260 for the corporate Democrat, a progressive that says point of prevalence, she, her, they, them

00:18:48.080 is not going to vote for a Tallarico type, even though James Tallarico is still liberal coded.

00:18:54.680 He is a white Christian man. And they're going to say white privilege and they're going to reject him.

00:19:00.620 This is a big problem for the Democrats. So they want to frame it as something tremendous and great

00:19:05.760 that so many people want to run for the Democratic Party. I'd argue it shows chaos in the party and

00:19:10.300 a breaking of ranks. Truth be told, the Republican Party exists in a permanent state of infighting.

00:19:15.760 So I guess welcome to the club. The Republican Party is a spattering. I would say the right

00:19:22.980 coalition, we call it, of a variety of ideologies that at least largely agree the left has gone

00:19:27.820 crazy. And that's why you get many moderates, individuals like myself, who have voted for

00:19:32.260 Trump and the Republicans for the first time, right, starting in 2020. And we lost in 2024,

00:19:37.900 and we won handily. But we are seeing a bunch of people who are, I don't know how you describe

00:19:44.620 them. Brett Weinstein's a great example. I mean, he's a liberal guy. He voted for Trump,

00:19:47.620 and now he's saying Trump is the mad king and must be stopped. And Candace Owens is saying 0.94

00:19:51.500 he's a satanic Zionist who needs to be removed by Congress. Yikes. Well, what I would argue is 1.00

00:19:57.860 that these individuals are going to break a ton of support away from the Republicans.

00:20:01.460 Or, theoretically, they could pressure a bunch of more middle-of-the-road neocon-type Republicans

00:20:07.640 into winning. Seems kind of counterintuitive, I would argue it. But no, the argument is this.

00:20:15.640 Who are the kind of people on the right that want Trump removed? The never-Trumpers,

00:20:19.440 the neocons, the people who went to the Democratic Party. You may say, yeah, but Candace Owens is

00:20:24.060 anti-Zionist and critical of these very same people. It doesn't matter. If Republicans run

00:20:29.140 on the platform of Trump is bad and needs to go, you're going to unify the anti-Zionist right with

00:20:34.180 the neocon right who doesn't like what Trump is doing and have never liked Donald Trump.

00:20:38.140 That being said, maybe not considering a lot of the neocons are now cheering Donald Trump on

00:20:42.720 because they love the war with Iran. I can't predict exactly how this will play out other

00:20:46.720 then. Suburban women are one of Candace Owens' biggest demographics. That's why she has the 1.00

00:20:52.560 Stanley mug right in frame on her show. It's very female coded, big and trendy, and they love this 0.99

00:20:58.400 stuff. They love the true crime murder mysteries, but now they're being told to abandon the right

00:21:03.320 who they supported largely for RFK Jr., in which case Democrats take control. And I will quote

00:21:08.600 Candace Owens, we don't care about your midterms. She explicitly stated that responding to me when

00:21:15.560 I said that what she was doing was demoralizing and was going to empower the Democrats. She said,

00:21:20.380 we don't care about your midterms. Okay, I didn't say you had to, but that proves my point.

00:21:27.580 These individuals would have the Democrats win. I guess the question is why? Is there an alternative?

00:21:34.720 I'm a realist, not an idealist, unfortunately. There are things I wish that were, but I also

00:21:38.800 know that the system is as the system is, and we can only move it so much. You may not like that

00:21:43.940 two-ton granite slab sitting on your lawn, but you're not going to just one day lift it up and

00:21:48.440 throw it. You're going to have to move it slowly, and it's very difficult. Maybe with a lot of help,

00:21:53.320 you might be able to move a two-ton slab of granite. But my friends, I suppose the question

00:21:58.880 is, what is the strategy the Democrats have moving forward? And it's going to be to lie,

00:22:03.480 to lie. Snopes coming in with the fact check. Mike Johnson allegedly said on Hot Mike,

00:22:10.100 it'd be huge for the GOP if Save America Act lowered voter turnout. Here's the real story.

00:22:13.940 I would humbly request that Snopes just put fact check false.

00:22:18.360 Mike Johnson never said this.

00:22:21.000 Let me show you the video.

00:22:22.260 One of the videos has been going massively viral.

00:22:24.800 Breaking news.

00:22:25.540 Mike Johnson just got caught on a hot mic saying how huge it would be for Republicans

00:22:29.520 if the SAFE Act actually went through because they would lose 18% of voter turnout.

00:22:35.300 False.

00:22:35.820 Well, we thought it would be 12%.

00:22:37.280 Maybe 18%.

00:22:38.960 That'd be a huge vote.

00:22:41.660 Yeah, you heard that right. Literally saying how huge it would be for the Republican Party

00:22:49.720 if the SAVE Act actually happened, because it would result in 18% less voter turnout.

00:22:57.300 18% less. Yeah, that's literally fake. Thanks, Snopes. They were talking about an election in

00:23:04.780 Louisiana with high voter turnout. And he said, we might get 12 to 18% voter turnout in Louisiana.

00:23:09.740 And Johnson was like, wow, that'd be great for us.

00:23:12.560 And they took it into context and said, they're talking about lowering voter turnout by 18% with the SAVE Act, which, to be fair, literally would be good for Republicans because Democrats tend to vote on their feelings.

00:23:23.880 That's true, though.

00:23:24.800 But that's just not what was said.

00:23:26.300 So I can appreciate the, what color is that?

00:23:29.840 You know those cars that paint where it's like when you look, it's kind of green and you move, it's purple.

00:23:34.280 That's whatever her hair is. 1.00

00:23:35.500 I don't know what it's called.

00:23:36.280 origin of the video. And I love how Snopes won't just fact check it because Snopes is heavily

00:23:40.740 biased. But thanks for at least writing the article. March 29th, a few days after the news

00:23:45.320 briefing, Louisiana held elections that were largely local, except for a few statewide

00:23:48.440 constitutional amendments. Landry encouraged voters to support the amendments. He noted

00:23:51.880 in the conversation they did not think opponents had spent so much money against

00:23:55.060 an amendment in a long time. Then at the 11 minute 39 mark of the recording,

00:24:00.000 Johnson asked Landry about turnout for the March 29th election. Johnson, what's the

00:24:03.840 anticipated turnout. He says, well, we thought it'd be 12. It looks like it may be 18 percent.

00:24:07.320 Johnson, that'd be huge for an election. I mean, for an amendment vote for a Louisiana election

00:24:11.080 date without major races, 18 percent is reasonably high, not a low one. For example,

00:24:16.320 the most recent amendment vote got 13 percent. So what do they do? The Democrats lie. Congratulations.

00:24:21.940 Well, this has resulted in something really, really funny. We've got this from the Democrats

00:24:27.840 are slash Democrats on Reddit. Speaker Mike Johnson caught on hot mic wanting to lower

00:24:31.820 voter turnout in part by save act voter suppression saying they'd be huge with turnout at 12 to 18

00:24:37.100 percent that is a lie but here's where it gets real fun nate silver lamenting the fact that the

00:24:44.840 new york times is just not getting popular anymore social media has become a freak show the ecosystem

00:24:50.700 is unhealthy especially on twitter and that's producing some strange beasts among the most

00:24:55.320 influential accounts the funny thing here first and foremost that his story is fake news and i

00:25:00.720 knew it was fake news right away because as I read this story of the prominence of the New York

00:25:06.880 not the New York Times and of right-wing personalities I said oh boy Tim Poole is a

00:25:13.820 famous guy I bet he's on this list and then my ego was smacked in the face because I am not on

00:25:18.780 this list I'm only half kidding by the way obviously I saw this list and I was like oh I

00:25:22.900 wonder where I'm at on there and I'm not despite having double the engagement of many of these

00:25:27.700 individuals, they have omitted me. Well, I think the reason they probably omitted me because

00:25:32.340 they're not going to put me in gray and they don't want to put me in red. So what is Tim

00:25:37.660 Poole? I've supported Trump and the Republicans, don't get me wrong. But of course, every single 0.99

00:25:42.220 person on here is definitively left and right. So it's just not real. Hassan Piker is not even

00:25:49.940 on here as well, despite having massive engagement. Hassan should be the second or he should be the

00:25:56.580 biggest blue sphere or the second biggest blue sphere. And he's not on here. Why? Because they're

00:26:02.160 trying to create a narrative. Now, Nate Silver knows the data is fake and is not retracted as

00:26:07.580 fake story. This is narrative crafting. They want you to believe that Eric Daugherty and Gunther

00:26:12.880 Eagleman are the most prominent right wing personalities. They are propping up these 0.96

00:26:16.400 voices because they want to create a media narrative. Now, I'm not saying I know that

00:26:20.660 Nate Silver genuinely believes this, but he does know that the data is fake. Nikita Beer,

00:26:26.980 who works at X, says the data is not accurate. It's missing half the network, including his

00:26:32.140 own engagements at 12 million, to which Nate Silver responds, it's not my data. The source

00:26:36.940 is Cluvio, which is linked in the article. I'd link to it in this tweet, but ironically,

00:26:40.660 that would kill engagement. And I know that traffic is hard to count, especially for a

00:26:45.380 private company. But if you have more accurate data, then publish it. What? Nate, no, you

00:26:50.320 published bad data, and they've proven it. I've proven it. I've posted my numbers. I have about

00:26:54.780 11.6 million engagements this year. I'm not saying I'm the biggest personality in the world,

00:26:59.620 but of the, I think this would put me at, actually, do we have the data set pulled up? I don't think

00:27:04.160 I do. It would put me in a decent, I don't know, 50th or something, 11 million, somewhere around

00:27:10.560 there. Yeah, I tweet all the time, and I trend, and people threaten to kill me. It happens.

00:27:14.640 And here I am being omitted from your story. Now, again, to be fair, a lot of people are saying,

00:27:19.660 Tim, shut up. It's not about you. No, no, no. Fair point. My point was I immediately noticed it 0.98

00:27:23.480 was fake because I wasn't on there. And metrics matter for our sales team and things of this

00:27:29.080 nature. The bigger picture is, what does this ultimately mean and why is Nate Silver upset?

00:27:35.680 Well, he says this. Excuse me. Do you think that X is facilitating high quality information?

00:27:41.820 If you suppress external links and there's no real quality signal other than engagement,

00:27:45.660 and people aren't even getting to the accounts they follow so much as the algo,

00:27:51.220 it seems like this is about where you'd end up.

00:27:53.600 The New York Times published a link to critical original reporting on Iran 45 minutes ago.

00:27:58.640 A good story. Fair.

00:28:00.260 They have 53 million followers.

00:28:02.360 The engagement metrics you display say they got 94 likes and 33 retakes out of that.

00:28:07.100 Is that accurate?

00:28:08.400 And if so, shouldn't you work on a better algorithm?

00:28:12.320 That's interesting.

00:28:13.580 One person pointed out that you didn't check the data was good, but you slapped your logo on it.

00:28:17.700 That's a pretty funny point.

00:28:19.080 Now, see, here's the real thing that Nate Silver is mad about.

00:28:22.040 He is mad because the New York Times is not getting more engagement than political commentary.

00:28:28.720 That's reality.

00:28:31.320 Here's one.

00:28:32.400 It's paywalled.

00:28:33.240 What good does that do us?

00:28:35.240 So if you can't get it, what are you going to do?

00:28:37.240 Now, I love this from ALX.

00:28:38.580 He says, did you know that Nikita Beer and Elon Musk are so powerful that they made the New York

00:28:42.760 Times suck at social media on blue sky and threads too? Here's the reason I bring this up.

00:28:50.380 Nate Silver is lamenting the fact that no one reads the New York Times, and they would rather

00:28:55.440 engage with individuals and the individual's opinions and the information they present.

00:29:00.560 What he fails to acknowledge is that on blue sky and threads, liberal bastions,

00:29:06.320 no one watches or reads that stuff either. So case in point, Nate Silver is plum wrong about

00:29:14.420 what's going on. And I'll just say this. The funny thing about this grid is that even if it were

00:29:19.660 accurate data, it's X. Liberals have all left. Now, something funny did come out of this. Hassan

00:29:25.800 Piker says, I couldn't find myself on the list, but here are my numbers. And we can see that he's

00:29:30.020 got 487 million impressions, 30.6 million engagements. I believe those numbers are true.

00:29:35.440 And then everyone noticed, among his verified followers, he has 22,000 out of 1.6 million.

00:29:41.180 Well, a lot of people are claiming he's botted.

00:29:43.540 I would make the argument that liberals don't buy verified accounts on X.

00:29:47.860 They go on Blue Sky and Threads.

00:29:50.500 I don't think Hasan Piker is botted.

00:29:53.240 I think Hasan Piker is very famous, has been propped up in the New York Times and other

00:29:55.780 platforms.

00:29:57.280 It is interesting that when you compare him to many others on X, for me, I have 2.6 million

00:30:02.480 followers and about 230,000 are verified followers, putting me just below, I guess,

00:30:06.740 10% or whatever. Fairly bad, I guess. I don't know. It is what it is. When we take a look at

00:30:14.020 this chart of other individuals, we can see that, no, Ian Malstrong is about 10% verified.

00:30:19.280 I think the issue is that there's a small spattering of verified individuals and a lot

00:30:23.400 of users. The bigger your account is, there's still a concentrated core of people who will

00:30:28.200 pay for X. And then there's the bigger community that it makes sense that if you have a massive

00:30:32.780 following, you're going to have a lower ratio. And if you have a smaller following, you have a higher

00:30:35.760 ratio because people who are in tune to what's going on are more likely to know who these

00:30:41.220 individuals are, to put it simply. But I don't know. I have around 10 or so percent, I think.

00:30:48.200 Most individuals floating around 100K followers see around 20 percent. Ian with 1.2 has about 10

00:30:53.860 percent. I think Hassan Piker just I don't think he's spotted. I really don't. Maybe we did see

00:30:59.920 some weird stuff, weird stuff going on when Elon was announcing that he was selling the platform.

00:31:03.460 So fine, perhaps. What I will say is this. The reason why I bring up the Nate Silver stuff in

00:31:07.820 this context, the corporate press does not have the influence. And a lot of this data is still

00:31:13.300 largely correct, although it is omitting a lot of more recent data and certain voices that are

00:31:17.260 not there should be like Hassan and myself. The fact is, I still do believe that engagement is

00:31:22.620 largely right leaning. And so while we talk about the potentialities this midterm, I will stress

00:31:27.500 my friends, the right is doing better than the polling predicts. The politically engaged are

00:31:33.160 leaning right. Now, moderates may be upset with Trump right now. It doesn't mean they're going

00:31:37.680 to vote Democrat. Moderates may say no Trump war bad, but the Republican Party still has net

00:31:44.160 favorability. The important thing to understand in this is that when we poll support or approval

00:31:49.400 for Congress and see record lows around 13 to 20 percent, that doesn't mean an individual member

00:31:55.080 of Congress. In people's districts, they overwhelmingly approve of their member of

00:32:00.300 Congress. At the national level, they view Congress as wholly dysfunctional, but it makes

00:32:04.620 sense. A member of Congress is going to serve their constituents, not the country. And that

00:32:10.000 means you will find Republicans in support of war funding. A bill will be signed giving $10

00:32:15.540 billion to making missiles. And we asked this on the show years ago. Why do they do it? The

00:32:21.680 Republican Party doesn't like this. And the response is actually really simple from members

00:32:25.280 of Congress that on the show. They say, you got to understand, in that district in Texas,

00:32:29.560 all of the jobs are tied to weapons manufacturing. So that member of Congress is massively popular

00:32:35.440 in their district when they vote for war funding. If they go to Congress and vote against it,

00:32:40.660 they will get voted out in two seconds. So the country may say it's bad they voted to fund this

00:32:45.820 war. But in that district, they are cheering for this guy. So understand the media narrative is

00:32:52.160 cooked. The left is not on X. They are on other platforms. We don't know exactly how it's going

00:32:59.420 to play out. But the GOP is still considered more favorable than the Democratic Party. And that says

00:33:05.520 a lot. Polls may not mean much. My prediction ultimately will still be that Republicans are

00:33:11.540 on track to lose the House. But I don't want to just be I don't want to ignore these data points

00:33:17.540 simply because we expect Republicans to lose. I think if people get it in gear,

00:33:23.660 it's possible Republicans can do better than people realize. Harry Enten thinks so. I'm

00:33:28.780 going to leave it there, my friends. Thank you for hanging out. Smash the like button. Share

00:33:31.400 the show, follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast. More segments to come throughout the day. And then

00:33:36.420 of course, TimCast IRL at 8 p.m. Don't miss it. Thanks for hanging out and we will see you all

00:33:40.940 then.

The Culture War - Tim Pool - April 06, 2026

Democrats IN TROUBLE As Polls Show GOP LEADING Favorability For Midterms In SHOCK TWIST

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