00:00:15.080This November, we face the most important election of our lives.
00:00:21.220Because literally every election is the most important election of our lives.
00:00:25.580Because it's the one that's addressing the current problems.
00:00:29.180But the issue is, will Donald Trump be able to hold on to the House and the Senate or will Democrats take back power and then shut down his second term agenda?
00:00:41.120Well, the prediction is, though things were pretty good about seven, eight months ago, Republicans were trending towards keeping the House and the Senate, which would buck the historical trends.
00:00:51.560Notably, every time a president gets in and there's a midterm, the other party takes the
00:00:56.260House because, well, what Trump does is motivating to Democrats and less so to conservatives
00:01:13.940Well, since last year, things have gotten precipitously worse and it's looking like
00:01:19.180Republicans are going to lose the House. However, there is some pretty dang good news for the
00:01:26.120Republicans. We've got CNN's data guru saying that the GOP may actually keep the Senate thanks
00:01:31.820to the Democrats' historically low midterm lead. Wait, wait, wait, hold on. How? What's going on?
00:01:38.680I kid you not. Yes, it's looking good for Democrats in the midterm to take the House.
00:01:44.020And this is going to mean subpoenas. It's going to mean depositions. People are going to go to jail
00:01:49.260like they did last time with contempt of Congress claims and filings. They're going to obstruct
00:01:55.060Trump. They're going to impeach him. But hold on. They're struggling to actually get there,
00:02:00.460which is kind of weird. Democrats should have no problem steamrolling Trump. I mean,
00:02:05.780his approval rating is down, but actually his approval rating is still higher than where
00:02:11.540Obama's was and George W. Bush's was at the same time in their second terms. Trump actually is
00:02:18.760trending moderately the same, I guess. And when you factor that in and then realize that Democrats
00:02:25.720lead is historically low, I got to say, there's a little bit of optimism to be had for Republicans
00:02:32.020that you're going to do better than people are actually predicting. These prediction markets
00:02:37.440are saying it's going to be particularly brutal. Now, with all that being said, I don't want to be
00:02:41.520just some guy blasting off copium and hopium, although those memes for that are familiar
00:02:47.140basically mean like we want to be optimistic, right? But I want to be realistic to the data
00:02:52.680trends that we have seen from the previous polls and special elections indicate a 10 point surge
00:02:58.260for Democrats in the House and other statewide elections indicating they could theoretically
00:03:04.800pull off a major supermajority or just strong majority in the House. They could get 10 seats.
00:03:13.220Now, I don't know that that will really happen because that seems pretty dang extreme.
00:03:17.460But I got to tell you, we got Candace Owens coming out saying Trump is satanic and needs to be
00:03:22.320impeached and removed. And when you see former Trump supporters breaking and calling him the
00:03:28.080mad king, saying he must be ousted, I got to tell you, Trump's going to lose a lot of support
00:03:33.420for this midterm. And he's the principal motivator for people. You know, in his first
00:03:37.740term in 2018, when Democrats took the House, it was, well, the reason for it is that Trump
00:03:43.040supporters did not come out for non-Trump candidates. Trump is the true motivating
00:03:48.000factor for the Republicans right now. That's why his endorsements are so important. But there is
00:03:53.640something else here outside of the polls, and that is the death of the corporate media and how
00:03:58.420social media will play a role. Recently, everyone's favorite Nate Silver put out bunk data where he's
00:04:05.720basically he says social media is a freak show. Why? Because everyone is right wing on social
00:04:10.680media. Aside from the fact that the data is largely fake, just wrong, and he won't retract it because
00:04:16.840he wants to make a point. His real complaint is that the New York Times is not getting engagement
00:04:23.120and pictures of puppies. Well, they are. Seriously? Okay, well, let's take them at face value.
00:04:30.000If Nate Silver's data is correct, it means that no one cares about the corporate press
00:04:34.740narrative anymore. And they're largely motivated by, yes, cat turd. If you don't know what that
00:04:41.100means, it's a guy on X who's got massive engagement, is massively pro-Trump, and he
00:04:47.840does way better than the New York Times. Now, I think the reality is Nate Silver's data is just
00:04:54.120largely wrong. However, it is true that the Internet X particularly does have a right wing
00:05:01.480bias. And I think that's because reality has a right wing bias. And thus, we may be doomsayers
00:05:08.460worried about what's going to happen this November. The truth is, I don't think it's
00:05:12.500going to be as bad for Republicans as many people are letting on. And I don't know if that's a good
00:05:17.100thing or a bad thing. Some say it's a good thing to threaten that the Democrats will take over
00:05:22.660because that will be a big motivator for Republicans to get out. While others argue,
00:05:26.620if you keep saying Democrats are going to win, Republicans will say, then what's the point of
00:05:30.000turning out at all? Well, let's take a look at the data, my friends, and we'll break it all down.
00:05:34.760Before we do, head over to TimCast.com and click join now. Why? It's not what you know,
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00:06:20.700and you think it's important, being a member makes it happen. So share this video with everyone you
00:06:25.660know if you really want to help out and join us at TimCast.com. Here's the report from Mediaite.
00:06:31.500CNN data guru reveals GOP may keep the Senate thanks to Democrats historically low midterm
00:06:37.780lead. Well, let's roll tape, my friends. Great discussion there. So in the latest CNN poll,
00:06:42.620It showed that Democrats have a six-point lead in the race for Congress.
00:06:48.140Now, there are two ways to look at that, a six-point lead.
00:06:50.760One, and say, hey, the Democrats are ahead there.
00:06:53.300Democrats should feel good about that.
00:06:55.000The other way to look at it is to say, for Democrats, is six points really enough?
00:07:00.120CNN chief data analyst, Harry Etten, is here.
00:07:03.640And that's the way that I think a lot of people are beginning to question this.
00:07:07.060Given the political wins and whatnot, is six points really a big enough lead for Democrats?
00:07:11.020Well, I would say this, Mr. Berman, and that is that this lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with the Republican president.
00:07:18.280Because take a look here, I'm taking a look at the average of all the polls.
00:07:21.840Demgeneric congressional ballot lead at this point in the cycle with the Republican president.
00:07:26.380On average, their lead's actually slightly less.
00:07:29.380That's less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points.
00:07:36.820So, yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they're only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on minus 20 to minus 30, depending on what polls you look at.
00:07:48.080You'd make the argument Democrats should be way ahead.
00:07:50.400And they're just only sort of slightly ahead.
00:07:53.220Now, to be clear, five points might be enough for them to retake the House, which is really a narrow margin.
00:07:58.460Would not take much at all for Democrats to get this.
00:08:03.640Yeah, the Senate is a different matter.
00:08:04.840I think five points is enough to take back the House, but in the Senate, five points is almost certainly not enough if you apply it to the Senate map.
00:08:12.280Why do I say that? Because let's just take a look. GOP would win the Senate with this map.
00:08:16.200Let's say Republicans only hold on to the states that Trump won by greater than 10 points.
00:08:21.420That would, in fact, give them the Senate 51 to 49.
00:08:25.100Why? Because what you would see is you would see that the Democrats would flip North Carolina.
00:08:29.760they would flip Maine, but Republicans would hold on to Ohio, they'd hold on to Texas,
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00:08:35.800and they'd hold on to Alaska because Donald Trump won all of those states by greater than 10 points.
00:08:42.580And I will note, John and I were talking, we have the NCAA tournament going on.
00:08:46.380This is sort of the chalk scenario going on where the most obvious events actually do occur.
00:08:51.640Because take a look, during the Trump era, look at this, flip the Senate seat, midterm and
00:08:55.760presidential years. States the other party won by 10 plus points in the last presidential election.
00:09:00.560Zero, zero, zero times did a party flip those states. So we're talking about places like Texas,
00:09:05.980Alaska, Ohio, where Trump won by double digits. Which is why the Democrats might need a bigger
00:09:11.040lead than they have now if the Senate is really in play. What else is going on now for the
00:09:17.280Democrats that maybe should cause them concern? What might cause them concern? Why is that generic
00:09:21.620congressional ballot leads so low because just take a look at this net favorability party ahead
00:09:26.280at this point midterm of years with the GOP president in 2018 Dems were up by 12 in 2006
00:09:31.720on net favorability which party like more Dems were ahead by 18 Republicans are actually ahead
00:09:36.460on net favorability at this point by five points so Democrats are just simply put running behind
00:09:41.800their previous benchmarks and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take
00:09:45.620back the United States Senate given that math to be clear both parties are wildly unfavorable right
00:09:50.600that. However, Democrats are even more unpopular. Indeed, my friends, isn't that a wild way to put
00:09:57.860it? And so I look at what's going on in social media and I am flabbergasted is the only way I
00:10:02.820can say when I see these personalities say like Trump is satanic and a demon and all this and
00:10:07.340they're getting massive engagement. I'm sitting here being like, what reality is this? Guys,
00:10:11.540I understand that both parties are deeply unfavorable. I comment on politics. I talk to
00:10:17.560people all the time. I do my own kind of polling when I'm talking to strangers. I'm kidding. Like
00:10:22.860we all talk to people we know and random people, people we might bump into or meet. And the
00:10:28.340narrative seems to be pretty static. I mean, the Republicans of the less crazy political party
00:10:34.340were upset with the war, but Trump is the better choice. Right now in Kelshi, they are predicting
00:10:40.920at 86 percent the Democrats will take the House. But I'm going to push back a little bit and say,
00:10:46.480I think that's overvalued. I really do. When you take a look at the 270 to win map for the House,
00:10:53.120Democrats are certainly favored, but there are 18 seats that are considered toss ups. We don't
00:10:58.840know for sure. Theoretically, Republicans could end up with 224 seats. Republicans theoretically
00:11:05.720could expand their control in the House. I say theoretically because I want to point out Trump's
00:11:11.160going to need a Hail Mary if he's going to make this one work. I mean, he's going to need a
00:11:16.180miracle. Maybe miracles are the right way to describe it. But even with Democrats lead,
00:11:22.120it is historically low. And perhaps the polling data may be wrong. Now, the one big factor in
00:11:29.600all of this, which freaks me out the most, of course, is how these Democrat states are trying
00:11:35.320to redistrict just in time for the midterms. And one of the most shockingly insane things I have
00:11:41.300ever seen. Because we are very close to Virginia, we see these commercials running on TV. They run
00:11:48.880on ads on our social media. I am watching, well, I was watching baseball yesterday, as one does on
00:11:55.040a beautiful Sunday Easter. And a commercial runs in Virginia where they said, vote yes to protect
00:12:02.420our elections. What was it really about? Well, it's funny because my wife says it before I even
00:12:07.560said anything. She goes, they're lying. They're trying to redistrict the state to eliminate the
00:12:12.060Republicans. And I was like, correct. And the crazy thing about it is there are five districts
00:12:18.020that they all have with tiny little strips converge near Arlington, which is weird. I think
00:12:24.460it was Arlington, maybe Fairfax at the county, but they all converge in this DC ish hyper urban
00:12:33.320concentration of liberals. If the state redistricts that way, they're turning one district into five
00:12:40.060and cutting out the Republicans. So it may not matter if Democrats are actually unfavorable if
00:12:46.780they cheat. Now, I got to be fair and say, is it really cheating? Well, I would argue in the spirit
00:12:52.600of elections, of course it is. The way our elections are supposed to work is a popular
00:12:56.800vote, not a procedural one. But this is how everything's been going. It is a procedural vote.
00:13:03.320That is, they simply just need to manufacture as many numbers as possible to win.
00:13:09.300No, they don't come to you and say, listen, here's my argument for a better country.
00:13:27.840But when you have people falling down and acting like they broke their legs for, you know, to get some kind of benefit in the game, that's not real.
00:13:45.700Like, when some Democrat wins because they changed the game, am I supposed to be like, wow, we're really happy with our popular governance?
00:13:53.520We've got a few factors to consider here, however.
00:13:56.060we have Politico, how the GOP's fraud crackdown could impact the midterms. While many Republicans
00:14:01.180approve of tackling fraud, the Trump admin's recent efforts may not be enough to overcome
00:14:05.880concerns about higher costs. The state J.D. Vance and the Center for Medicare and Medicaid
00:14:11.080Administrator Mehmet Oz are taking high profile roles in the fight. Vance kicked off a new fraud
00:14:16.640task task force this spring. In Congress, several House committees have launched their own
00:14:21.560investigations. The looming question, will the all hands Republican fraud crackdown translate
00:14:26.200to votes at a time when Americans are laser focused on the high cost of living, including
00:14:31.180hiked Obamacare premiums? Republicans argue it will help shift the spotlight off complaints
00:14:36.780about health care and affordability during Trump's first year in office, as well as counter
00:14:40.800Democratic attacks over the more than one trillion in Medicaid cuts in the last year's
00:14:44.840one big, beautiful bill act. Excuse me. The Medicaid reforms, which include expanded work
00:14:50.420requirements were focused on trying to address fraud, such as integrity checks, said Energy and
00:14:57.740Commerce Chairman Brett Guthrie. We are seeing the fraud. We are seeing the fraud that we are
00:15:03.100trying to solve. Guthrie said voters want to see it addressed. I always say good governance is good
00:15:08.820politics and addressing fraud is good politics. Indeed, cracking down on fraud can help Republicans
00:15:15.000reinforce a message of accountability and stewardship, but it's not a substitute for
00:15:18.320addressing what voters care about cutting health costs, says Joel White, a GOP health strategist.
00:15:23.160Well, my friends, what I'd like to point out for the most part is that Democrats have been
00:15:29.680complaining about being unable to fund these medical programs and said, you know, if we just
00:15:33.880text the rich, we can fund everything, which is just not true. It's always been a lie. And I'll
00:15:39.820explain why. First, we have a lot of fraud. We know a lot of fraud. And that's the Republican
00:15:44.480angle. Republican angle is if we cut the billions in fraud, which you find in Minnesota, Ohio and
00:15:48.160California, we will have more money for these programs. That's true. Will it be enough to fund
00:15:52.960all of them? I don't know, but it's a good PR swing, right? Hey, we got a billion dollars in
00:15:57.400fraud. Let's get that money back. I don't know that's going to put a dent in the budget in terms
00:16:01.080of funding a lot of programs, but a billion dollars is a billion dollars. Now, if you were
00:16:04.600to tax Bezos on his wealth, he'd have to liquidate assets, destroying the value of those assets.
00:16:09.140And we're talking largely about Amazon stock. The same thing is true for Elon with SpaceX,
00:16:13.260Tesla or otherwise. Tesla stock would crumble if Elon was forced by law to liquidate those assets
00:16:18.940to turn over to the government once every year. It would destroy the value of these companies.
00:16:23.440In turn, Elon would be worth less money and not be able to actually, or actually more importantly,
00:16:28.640not be eligible for those wealth tax schemes anyway. Over the long period, you gut and eviscerate the
00:16:34.060wealth that you claim to be taxing and then there's nothing to tax. So wealth tax just literally
00:16:38.100don't make sense. It's an excuse by Democrats to try and come up with a reason why it's someone
00:16:44.520else's fault. We're not paying your programs. Well, listen, if you can't fund the programs
00:16:49.160without stripping the assets of somebody else, then you can't fund the programs. It would be a
00:16:54.000time bomb. If you are fraudulently giving money away, well, then you can at least get that money
00:16:59.940back. Neither of these are solutions. At least one is practical. Well, Newsweek says Democrats
00:17:06.040get record-breaking boost heading into the midterms. Democrats say candidate recruitment
00:17:11.280is reaching historic levels ahead of the midterms. Indeed. They're reporting record-setting
00:17:17.560candidate recruitment across state legislative races as well as the party ramps up preparations
00:17:22.560for the midterm elections, according to a new release from the Democratic Legislative Campaign
00:17:27.280Committee. State Democrats are shattering recruitment records across the country,
00:17:31.800President Heather Williams said, pointing to a surge in candidates filing to run in battleground
00:17:35.960traditionally red and reliably blue states. Party officials attribute the trend to earlier
00:17:41.800investment in organizing infrastructure, staffing and support for legislative causes.
00:17:46.520I'm going to go ahead and counter this, my friends, and say propaganda. This is actually
00:17:52.100really bad news for Democrats. It means there's massive infighting. You see, when a party is
00:17:57.540unified, they have a single candidate they typically are OK with and they don't get
00:18:01.700primaried. What we are seeing now is that Democrats are seeing record candidate recruitment.
00:18:06.640What does that mean? It means tons of people are upset with each other and they're fighting each
00:18:11.480other for control of the party. I know, maybe a bit extreme of me to explain it that way.
00:18:15.780The truth is there are a lot of highly motivated Democrats and the good news for them is
00:18:19.080this motivation is going to translate into activity at the ballot box in November.
00:18:23.520The problem, however, is that if progressives and the moderate Dems are fighting each other,
00:18:28.400they're not voting for each other. So when they claim that there is massive recruitment at the
00:18:33.120state level for people to run for office, yeah, they're implying that there are people challenging
00:18:37.420the infrastructure of the Democratic Party. These people are not likely going to vote
00:18:42.260for the corporate Democrat, a progressive that says point of prevalence, she, her, they, them
00:18:48.080is not going to vote for a Tallarico type, even though James Tallarico is still liberal coded.
00:18:54.680He is a white Christian man. And they're going to say white privilege and they're going to reject him.
00:19:00.620This is a big problem for the Democrats. So they want to frame it as something tremendous and great
00:19:05.760that so many people want to run for the Democratic Party. I'd argue it shows chaos in the party and
00:19:10.300a breaking of ranks. Truth be told, the Republican Party exists in a permanent state of infighting.
00:19:15.760So I guess welcome to the club. The Republican Party is a spattering. I would say the right
00:19:22.980coalition, we call it, of a variety of ideologies that at least largely agree the left has gone
00:19:27.820crazy. And that's why you get many moderates, individuals like myself, who have voted for
00:19:32.260Trump and the Republicans for the first time, right, starting in 2020. And we lost in 2024,
00:19:37.900and we won handily. But we are seeing a bunch of people who are, I don't know how you describe
00:19:44.620them. Brett Weinstein's a great example. I mean, he's a liberal guy. He voted for Trump,
00:19:47.620and now he's saying Trump is the mad king and must be stopped. And Candace Owens is saying
00:19:51.500he's a satanic Zionist who needs to be removed by Congress. Yikes. Well, what I would argue is
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00:19:57.860that these individuals are going to break a ton of support away from the Republicans.
00:20:01.460Or, theoretically, they could pressure a bunch of more middle-of-the-road neocon-type Republicans
00:20:07.640into winning. Seems kind of counterintuitive, I would argue it. But no, the argument is this.
00:20:15.640Who are the kind of people on the right that want Trump removed? The never-Trumpers,
00:20:19.440the neocons, the people who went to the Democratic Party. You may say, yeah, but Candace Owens is
00:20:24.060anti-Zionist and critical of these very same people. It doesn't matter. If Republicans run
00:20:29.140on the platform of Trump is bad and needs to go, you're going to unify the anti-Zionist right with
00:20:34.180the neocon right who doesn't like what Trump is doing and have never liked Donald Trump.
00:20:38.140That being said, maybe not considering a lot of the neocons are now cheering Donald Trump on
00:20:42.720because they love the war with Iran. I can't predict exactly how this will play out other
00:20:46.720then. Suburban women are one of Candace Owens' biggest demographics. That's why she has the
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00:20:52.560Stanley mug right in frame on her show. It's very female coded, big and trendy, and they love this
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00:20:58.400stuff. They love the true crime murder mysteries, but now they're being told to abandon the right
00:21:03.320who they supported largely for RFK Jr., in which case Democrats take control. And I will quote
00:21:08.600Candace Owens, we don't care about your midterms. She explicitly stated that responding to me when
00:21:15.560I said that what she was doing was demoralizing and was going to empower the Democrats. She said,
00:21:20.380we don't care about your midterms. Okay, I didn't say you had to, but that proves my point.
00:21:27.580These individuals would have the Democrats win. I guess the question is why? Is there an alternative?
00:21:34.720I'm a realist, not an idealist, unfortunately. There are things I wish that were, but I also
00:21:38.800know that the system is as the system is, and we can only move it so much. You may not like that
00:21:43.940two-ton granite slab sitting on your lawn, but you're not going to just one day lift it up and
00:21:48.440throw it. You're going to have to move it slowly, and it's very difficult. Maybe with a lot of help,
00:21:53.320you might be able to move a two-ton slab of granite. But my friends, I suppose the question
00:21:58.880is, what is the strategy the Democrats have moving forward? And it's going to be to lie,
00:22:03.480to lie. Snopes coming in with the fact check. Mike Johnson allegedly said on Hot Mike,
00:22:10.100it'd be huge for the GOP if Save America Act lowered voter turnout. Here's the real story.
00:22:13.940I would humbly request that Snopes just put fact check false.
00:22:41.660Yeah, you heard that right. Literally saying how huge it would be for the Republican Party
00:22:49.720if the SAVE Act actually happened, because it would result in 18% less voter turnout.
00:22:57.30018% less. Yeah, that's literally fake. Thanks, Snopes. They were talking about an election in
00:23:04.780Louisiana with high voter turnout. And he said, we might get 12 to 18% voter turnout in Louisiana.
00:23:09.740And Johnson was like, wow, that'd be great for us.
00:23:12.560And they took it into context and said, they're talking about lowering voter turnout by 18% with the SAVE Act, which, to be fair, literally would be good for Republicans because Democrats tend to vote on their feelings.