The Culture War - Tim Pool - March 06, 2026


Kalshi SUED By People BETTING MONEY On Iran Leaders Death


Episode Stats

Length

32 minutes

Words per Minute

182.87408

Word Count

5,878

Sentence Count

497

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

10


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A massive lawsuit has been filed over the killing of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran, and it s not for any of the reasons most people would expect. It s because people were betting on the death of this man to the tune of $54 million and they did not get paid. This all has to do with the emergence of the prediction market, and what people expect when they make wagers on the outcome of a future event, which has presented us with very weird circumstances.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:30.000 A massive lawsuit has been filed over the killing of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran
00:00:36.280 and it's not for any of the reasons most people would expect.
00:00:39.400 It's because people were betting on the death of this man
00:00:42.580 to the tune of $54 million and they did not get paid.
00:00:46.680 This all has to do with the prediction market emergence.
00:00:50.100 Kalshi and Pali market and what people expect when they make wagers.
00:00:55.660 Technically not wagers.
00:00:56.600 They're buying contracts on the outcome of a future event
00:01:00.780 which has presented us with very weird circumstances.
00:01:05.360 Notably, there is a wager that I, Tim Pool,
00:01:08.560 will or will not appear at a White House press briefing this year.
00:01:12.280 And there are questions about whether or not I'm allowed to say anything.
00:01:15.940 It just becomes very, very weird.
00:01:17.520 Insider trading rules, regulations under the CFTC,
00:01:20.180 and it's resulting in a, well, weird future.
00:01:26.200 Because personally, I'm not completely opposed to the idea of prediction markets,
00:01:29.880 but there are circumstances arising around whether or not something is or is not insider trading.
00:01:34.620 Recently, a story came out about a potential insider
00:01:37.800 who accurately predicted major moves by the U.S. military
00:01:41.660 and profited to the tune of $100,000 in one month.
00:01:46.660 This individual is predicting that the U.S. will likely have boots on the ground in Iran,
00:01:51.940 but we'll see how much of this is actual insider knowledge
00:01:55.580 and how much of this is just speculation on a market
00:01:59.120 where you can sell your contract at any point for a profit.
00:02:02.060 The story with Kalshi is actually quite simple.
00:02:04.820 Khomeini was killed, and many people bet he would be out as supreme leader.
00:02:09.620 But Kalshi qualified this by saying death does not count as leaving office.
00:02:15.840 Therefore, if you bet he'd be out of office,
00:02:18.200 under the assumption that death meant leaving, it doesn't count.
00:02:21.860 There's a problem with that logic.
00:02:23.600 Because some people wagered he would not be out as supreme leader.
00:02:27.680 And if the rule is, in order to qualify for this bet as a yes or a no,
00:02:33.700 he must voluntarily or be removed from office.
00:02:37.960 Like, actually say, I hereby resign.
00:02:40.820 Or have someone come in and say, you are being removed.
00:02:43.720 And if that condition is not met,
00:02:47.520 then no is 100% and should pay out to those who bought that contract.
00:02:53.020 However, what ends up happening is Kalshi basically says,
00:02:56.420 we're going to freeze the market and pay everyone out
00:02:59.720 based on the last traded prices,
00:03:02.100 which is creating a whole lot of confusion.
00:03:05.180 So my friends, we're going to talk about this latest news,
00:03:08.380 but we're really going to dive into the wild world
00:03:10.720 that is getting massively like Scrooge McDuck rich
00:03:15.580 off of just guessing that something might happen.
00:03:18.420 Oh boy, a lot of people are.
00:03:21.040 Now, full disclosure, my friends,
00:03:23.040 we here at Timcast actually do have a sponsorship from Kalshi.
00:03:26.520 And with respect, I'm not going to hold back my thoughts and opinions for that matter,
00:03:30.760 but I will disclose we do have that sponsorship.
00:03:33.100 Additionally, I actually fall into this class action camp,
00:03:37.760 strangely, because I had previously made a purchase of contracts
00:03:42.180 that Khamenei would also be, he would be leaving office.
00:03:45.680 And I did this under the presumption we were going to blow him up
00:03:48.420 because Trump said he was going to blow him up.
00:03:50.360 And I was completely unaware that the wager,
00:03:53.520 I'm sorry, the contract was actually
00:03:55.320 that you were going to be expecting Khamenei to step down
00:04:00.200 from his lifetime appointment as the Supreme Leader.
00:04:03.740 And, you know, theoretically, you get old and he says,
00:04:05.780 I'll give to my son or something,
00:04:06.840 but no one really expected that to happen.
00:04:08.900 And so with all that being said,
00:04:11.000 I am not interested in any class action lawsuit
00:04:13.560 nor going after Kalshi for that matter.
00:04:14.880 It was a couple hundred bucks.
00:04:15.840 And I do it largely just for fun.
00:04:17.880 And, but I want to make sure I fully disclose
00:04:19.920 that I do have some skin in the game
00:04:22.440 as to how it pertains to all this stuff.
00:04:23.800 But I'll give you my genuine, honest thoughts and opinions
00:04:26.240 on the wacky and wild world that is prediction markets.
00:04:29.720 And I'm going to say this,
00:04:30.680 I'm actually slightly in favor of them.
00:04:33.200 I am not a hardcore, like,
00:04:36.660 I don't know what the right word is,
00:04:38.200 prohibitionist on various things.
00:04:41.200 I think the problems we face when it comes to potential gambling
00:04:44.860 or alcoholism or drugs is always cultural.
00:04:47.600 And I think it's fine if somebody wants to have fun
00:04:49.700 and, you know, buy a contract,
00:04:50.960 they think an event is going to happen
00:04:52.640 or a thing is going to be said.
00:04:54.300 I don't have a problem with it existing,
00:04:56.360 but I do have an issue with abuse in general.
00:04:58.160 And abuse, I think, can be solved through cultural remedies.
00:05:01.300 But let's read the news, my friends.
00:05:02.420 Before we do, I got a big announcement.
00:05:04.040 You guys got to go to casprew.com.
00:05:06.340 Scroll down and check it out.
00:05:08.140 Canned pool water now available.
00:05:10.760 If you ever wanted to drink pool water,
00:05:12.560 then something is wrong with you.
00:05:14.040 Please don't do it.
00:05:14.600 But if you want to drink canned pool branded water,
00:05:18.480 it's available now at casprew.com.
00:05:20.400 Limited supply, as of right now, we have 12-packs.
00:05:24.400 We only have about 947 12-packs,
00:05:27.360 and they're going to sell like hotcakes.
00:05:29.760 Like hotcakes they're going to sell
00:05:30.700 because it's a gag product and we're goofing off.
00:05:32.600 But I reached out to my crew,
00:05:35.420 and they said the warehouse says
00:05:36.980 there is no plastic lining this can,
00:05:40.640 which I honestly, I find that hard to believe
00:05:42.800 because almost every single can that you'll get
00:05:44.680 will have plastic liner in it.
00:05:46.260 Now, the caps do have plastic gaskets.
00:05:48.820 That's what I'm being told.
00:05:49.740 However, take that with a grain of salt.
00:05:51.900 I want to get official certification to make sure
00:05:53.880 because my understanding was
00:05:54.680 there is going to be plastic in these cans.
00:05:56.940 And that matters because I'm not here to lie to you guys.
00:05:58.960 Sell a product.
00:05:59.740 It's a fun gag product.
00:06:01.080 Water bottles are plastic.
00:06:02.480 Cans got plastic in them.
00:06:03.420 It is what it is.
00:06:04.360 But let's read the news, my friends.
00:06:05.620 It's major.
00:06:06.340 It's massive.
00:06:07.120 And it's an emerging market.
00:06:08.280 Betters wagered $54 million on Khomeini's death.
00:06:12.420 Now they're not getting paid.
00:06:14.700 Traders on the prediction market site,
00:06:16.220 Kalshi, assumed they had won a fortune
00:06:18.260 by correctly betting on the Iranian leader's demise.
00:06:20.920 The ensuing scandal has thrown a spotlight
00:06:22.680 on the dystopian rise of gambling on real world events.
00:06:26.800 But my friends, Bloomberg Law with the breaking news
00:06:29.420 as of today.
00:06:30.880 Let's throw it in the mix.
00:06:32.220 We got it here, boys.
00:06:34.220 Kalshi sued over death carve out
00:06:36.940 in Iran leader prediction market.
00:06:39.180 They say Kalshi Inc.
00:06:42.080 should have paid out on a $54 million market,
00:06:44.660 speculating when Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
00:06:47.160 would vacate his role after he was killed
00:06:49.500 during U.S. and Israeli airstrikes,
00:06:51.340 a proposed class action said.
00:06:53.400 Kalshi and his exchange,
00:06:54.480 his plain language rules,
00:06:56.140 made traders who predicted his departure
00:06:58.060 expect payouts.
00:06:59.440 And they didn't adequately disclose a death carve out
00:07:01.400 until after news of Khamenei's death had spread.
00:07:04.140 Said the complaint filed in the U.S. District Court
00:07:05.880 for the Central District of Columbia.
00:07:07.260 Then rather than halting trading
00:07:10.060 as reports of military strikes accumulated,
00:07:12.440 Kalshi lured more traders into yes positions
00:07:14.600 on Khamenei's exit
00:07:15.420 while knowing it wouldn't deliver payouts.
00:07:17.920 I'm gonna give you my honest opinion.
00:07:20.080 Kalshi had put out tweets.
00:07:22.020 And so let me show you this one.
00:07:24.260 It's from February 28th at 8.28 a.m.
00:07:27.520 Kalshi says,
00:07:28.040 Breaking, if you're just waking up,
00:07:29.020 there's been major news in Iran.
00:07:31.180 U.S. and Israel have begun major combat operations
00:07:34.360 in Iran targeting top Iran officials.
00:07:36.060 Iran launches counterattack on U.S. bases
00:07:38.520 in Qatar, Kuwait, UAE,
00:07:40.620 and retaliatory attacks in Israel.
00:07:42.740 American officials say strikes
00:07:43.800 will continue for days to weeks.
00:07:45.480 I do not believe that Kalshi intended
00:07:47.880 to wrong anybody.
00:07:49.700 My understanding is that Kalshi
00:07:51.080 has always had the rules
00:07:52.320 that these are not predicated
00:07:53.880 upon the death of the individual,
00:07:55.680 but actually leaving office.
00:07:57.180 I just think that most people didn't know this.
00:07:59.860 I think that Kalshi put this tweet out,
00:08:01.400 not with the intention to entice anybody.
00:08:03.420 And this is coming from somebody who,
00:08:05.400 I'm going to say this,
00:08:06.360 I believe I am owed substantially more money.
00:08:09.000 I do so.
00:08:09.660 I do so believe.
00:08:10.440 And I'll tell you why.
00:08:11.900 There's two perspectives on this.
00:08:14.780 And again, let me pause real quick.
00:08:17.180 And just, I want to reiterate.
00:08:18.560 The argument from the lawsuit
00:08:19.880 is that Kalshi knowingly was bringing people in,
00:08:23.940 saying, hey, look, we're striking Iran.
00:08:25.620 Thus people thought they were wagering.
00:08:27.700 I got to be careful how I say this.
00:08:28.820 But buying contracts on the outcome of Khamenei dying,
00:08:32.100 not choosing to leave office.
00:08:34.540 However, it's also fair to say
00:08:36.020 that anybody who actually read the rules
00:08:37.480 could expect that following these bombings,
00:08:39.800 Khamenei might actually say,
00:08:41.800 I am hereby resigning,
00:08:42.680 but come on, let's be real.
00:08:43.680 Nobody really believed that was possible.
00:08:45.940 But it still matters.
00:08:47.400 Because there's two options
00:08:48.860 as to how this plays out.
00:08:50.920 So you can see here that I myself
00:08:52.720 have profited to the tune of $323
00:08:54.880 with the exchange that I did.
00:08:57.380 I bought in for $315, cashed out for $638.
00:09:00.360 Now, the thing is,
00:09:01.720 I don't know the exact number.
00:09:03.700 I think when I bought it, it was like 26%.
00:09:05.700 There was a yes and a no potential.
00:09:09.120 No, I don't think he will leave.
00:09:11.080 Yes, I think he will leave.
00:09:12.940 Now, this matters.
00:09:14.340 This matters as it pertains to this lawsuit.
00:09:16.360 Because if Kalshi's rules
00:09:18.740 are that death does not qualify,
00:09:21.740 then I sold, I didn't, I didn't,
00:09:24.340 so here's how it played out for me.
00:09:25.380 When I had purchased futures contracts
00:09:28.660 that Khamenei would be out as a supreme leader,
00:09:31.980 and I assumed it meant dead.
00:09:33.680 And that's on me, that's fine, whatever.
00:09:36.300 When I woke up in the morning
00:09:37.360 and saw the news that they were bombing Iran,
00:09:39.200 I just sold my position.
00:09:40.620 I didn't wait for a conclusion
00:09:41.760 as to whether or not he did or did not die.
00:09:44.160 However, we know that he died instantly
00:09:46.860 around like 4 a.m. U.S. time.
00:09:49.280 And it was well after that I sold my position,
00:09:52.000 which creates a very, very interesting circumstance.
00:09:56.360 Kalshi's position is that,
00:09:59.360 no, this doesn't qualify as leaving office.
00:10:02.880 The contract is he would step down
00:10:05.260 or be politically removed, not killed.
00:10:07.620 In which case, if that is true,
00:10:10.340 the no payout should be 100%.
00:10:13.560 Why?
00:10:14.100 Because it is no longer possible
00:10:16.420 for such a circumstance.
00:10:18.640 Therefore, this middle position they've taken,
00:10:21.540 I believe, is wholly problematic.
00:10:23.800 And now, based on their own rules,
00:10:26.320 there is an interesting conundrum.
00:10:28.800 Several individuals,
00:10:29.960 or I should say the individuals launching this lawsuit,
00:10:32.240 are suing Kalshi under the presumption
00:10:34.140 that it should count that he left office,
00:10:36.680 that he died.
00:10:37.680 That was the presumption,
00:10:38.960 and that's why they were wagering.
00:10:40.080 However, if it is true that Kalshi's rules explicitly
00:10:43.560 and have always stated death doesn't count,
00:10:46.760 then it is now impossible.
00:10:49.200 The contract must close.
00:10:51.420 Khamenei can never be politically removed from office.
00:10:54.760 He can't step down,
00:10:56.180 abdicate, resign, or otherwise,
00:10:57.780 and he can't be couped.
00:10:59.120 In which case, the answer is definitively no.
00:11:02.580 He will not be leaving office.
00:11:05.420 He was just killed.
00:11:06.240 This should mean that I should retroactively get zero dollars.
00:11:11.340 Because when the news broke that the palace had been bombed,
00:11:16.140 here's another, okay, this is where it gets really crazy.
00:11:20.040 If it pays yes or no,
00:11:22.040 let's put a tack on that and put it aside.
00:11:24.040 At 4 a.m., when the U.S.,
00:11:26.660 I believe it's Eastern time,
00:11:28.180 blew up Khamenei's palace, killing him,
00:11:30.980 the contract concludes definitively.
00:11:33.740 Whether we know it or not,
00:11:36.400 which means upon learning,
00:11:41.360 be it at noon or 2 o'clock,
00:11:43.940 that Khamenei had been dead since 8 a.m.,
00:11:47.140 Kalshi should have reversed all trades up to that point
00:11:51.840 and concluded no,
00:11:54.560 which means I lose 100% of the money that I put in,
00:11:57.200 and anybody who bet no should instantly get a 100% payout
00:12:03.480 as it is now impossible for him to ever leave.
00:12:07.440 The answer would be no.
00:12:09.220 If, however,
00:12:10.640 the expectation and presumption and ultimate conclusion is
00:12:13.600 that Khamenei's death does qualify
00:12:16.540 as a yes on this contract,
00:12:19.120 then I should be paid out an additional 300 and some odd dollars.
00:12:23.920 Why?
00:12:25.260 Guys,
00:12:26.100 if I bought a contract that said
00:12:27.980 Khamenei's out as leader
00:12:29.260 and he was officially out as of 8 a.m.
00:12:32.880 because they killed him,
00:12:35.020 why would anyone be allowed to trade otherwise
00:12:37.220 if the event had already concluded?
00:12:40.180 Therein lies the problem with prediction markets.
00:12:43.620 You are not betting on a sporting event
00:12:45.820 with a known stop time.
00:12:47.880 You are betting on worldly events
00:12:50.180 that we have to confirm,
00:12:52.260 confirm one way or the other.
00:12:54.240 In which case,
00:12:55.400 imagine this.
00:12:56.960 Imagine you bet on the outcome of a Bears game.
00:13:00.400 You know,
00:13:00.640 the great old Indiana Hammond,
00:13:02.180 Hammond, Indiana Bears.
00:13:04.760 I'm hoping that's not gonna be the case.
00:13:07.240 Let's say you were like,
00:13:08.220 I think the Bears are gonna win, right?
00:13:10.920 Only problem is there's no reporters and no fans
00:13:13.160 and literally nobody watches the game.
00:13:14.440 You then get word at 4 a.m.
00:13:18.820 or you wake up to hear all these reports on social media
00:13:21.440 that Bears fans are cheering in the streets
00:13:24.420 and you go,
00:13:25.660 whoa,
00:13:25.820 I think I won.
00:13:27.240 So you get the option to sell out your position
00:13:29.520 and saying,
00:13:29.920 well,
00:13:29.940 I don't know for sure,
00:13:30.680 but I'm gonna,
00:13:31.180 no,
00:13:31.220 no,
00:13:31.280 no,
00:13:31.380 hold on.
00:13:32.440 The game was over.
00:13:33.960 The Bears had already won.
00:13:35.760 You are owed a complete payout on your bet.
00:13:39.120 That's it.
00:13:40.000 They shouldn't allow any more betting after the fact
00:13:42.400 just because you're waiting to find out
00:13:44.040 if you won.
00:13:44.500 But see,
00:13:44.780 the thing is,
00:13:45.500 with sports betting,
00:13:47.440 as opposed to whatever's going on
00:13:49.080 with prediction markets,
00:13:50.000 you have clear,
00:13:51.280 definitive end times.
00:13:53.880 So what do we do?
00:13:55.560 This is the weird space we're in.
00:13:57.360 Now,
00:13:57.700 understanding all of this,
00:13:59.620 to be fair,
00:14:00.340 I mean,
00:14:00.620 new things emerge all the time
00:14:01.980 and we sort through how to solve for them.
00:14:03.560 That's fair.
00:14:04.440 We understand that.
00:14:05.480 But therein lies the main problem.
00:14:07.720 If Kalshi,
00:14:08.640 again,
00:14:09.000 has always stated,
00:14:10.920 always stated,
00:14:12.420 that death does not count,
00:14:14.740 then I gotta be honest.
00:14:16.220 Well,
00:14:16.520 it's your own fault for not reading the rules.
00:14:18.180 Mine too.
00:14:19.040 And Kalshi should reverse every trade
00:14:21.160 after the time of confirmed death.
00:14:24.300 And I don't mean reported.
00:14:26.260 I mean,
00:14:27.020 when we blew up his building
00:14:28.480 and they said that's what killed him
00:14:30.400 and that was at 4 a.m.
00:14:31.880 Eastern time,
00:14:32.720 anything after that is reversed.
00:14:35.080 And that means for me,
00:14:36.520 I should lose every dollar that I got
00:14:38.920 because I said he would be removed.
00:14:40.880 And those are the rules.
00:14:41.580 And it's my fault if that's the case.
00:14:43.560 Let's read a little bit more
00:14:44.300 and then we'll get into what's going on currently
00:14:45.640 with maybe we can learn something from these markets.
00:14:49.420 And I'll tell you why I actually do like them.
00:14:52.440 They're going to say that
00:14:53.180 the language on Kalshi's market
00:14:54.620 was clear,
00:14:55.480 unambiguous,
00:14:55.920 and binary.
00:14:57.220 That if Kemeni left office,
00:14:58.380 those with yes would receive their full payout.
00:15:01.220 Kalshi's CEO said
00:15:03.000 that they don't list markets
00:15:04.680 that are directly tied to death.
00:15:05.640 This is a regulated market.
00:15:06.640 Poly market is not regulated in the United States.
00:15:08.260 And there's a reason why they do it.
00:15:10.600 Because you don't want people
00:15:11.520 betting on someone dying
00:15:12.620 because someone's incentivized to go kill them.
00:15:14.460 We don't want to live in that world, right?
00:15:16.000 As backlash mounted,
00:15:17.040 CEO Tarek Mansour said in a March 1st post,
00:15:19.740 Kalshi would reimburse fees and net losses.
00:15:22.380 The company would update
00:15:23.420 how it presented similar markets
00:15:24.700 with a death carve out
00:15:25.740 so traders can see the exception more clearly
00:15:28.240 before they trade.
00:15:29.640 Truth be told,
00:15:30.440 they actually gave me an extra 30 some odd dollars.
00:15:33.040 After all this concluded,
00:15:34.120 I got a notification
00:15:34.720 that they gave me a reimbursement
00:15:36.260 of around 30 bucks,
00:15:37.780 something to do with
00:15:39.020 the fair market value
00:15:40.320 of the market,
00:15:41.280 like of what I predicted.
00:15:42.520 I was owed money or something.
00:15:43.720 I honestly got no idea.
00:15:46.020 I was surprised.
00:15:47.280 I thought they were going to take all the money away
00:15:48.480 because it's a no, right?
00:15:50.980 While the rules were clear,
00:15:52.260 we tried our best to highlight them.
00:15:53.500 Traders vocalized
00:15:54.340 they were not prominent enough.
00:15:55.780 We heard you
00:15:56.300 and we decided to reimburse
00:15:57.160 out of pocket for all fees
00:15:58.320 and net losses
00:15:58.840 from trading in the market.
00:16:00.260 I got to be honest,
00:16:01.060 I think that's fair.
00:16:02.660 That's why I'm not interested
00:16:03.540 in this lawsuit.
00:16:04.780 I think anybody who wants
00:16:05.920 to buy a contract
00:16:06.660 and doesn't read the rules,
00:16:07.740 the rules are clear
00:16:08.460 and you can read them,
00:16:09.600 that's your fault
00:16:10.420 for making assumptions.
00:16:11.660 And that's the reality of
00:16:12.920 if you're trying to make wagers
00:16:14.520 on predictions,
00:16:15.380 whatever you want to call it,
00:16:16.620 that's your own business.
00:16:17.900 It's your own fault, right?
00:16:19.560 That being said,
00:16:21.020 there is an issue
00:16:21.600 for the no voters
00:16:22.920 that I think
00:16:23.480 actually is more worthy
00:16:24.980 of a lawsuit.
00:16:25.640 It is unfair in my opinion
00:16:27.880 to state the rules were clear
00:16:30.320 but not pay out
00:16:31.900 those who said no.
00:16:33.500 Therein lies the real problem
00:16:34.800 and the real potential lawsuit.
00:16:36.860 If you were someone
00:16:37.780 who wagered no,
00:16:39.300 Khomeini would not be out,
00:16:40.720 I believe you're owed
00:16:41.780 the full amount.
00:16:43.440 But here we are.
00:16:45.280 They say
00:16:46.140 the proposed class
00:16:47.300 would cover those
00:16:48.080 in the U.S.
00:16:48.780 who held yes
00:16:49.560 on Kalshi's Ali Khomeini
00:16:52.140 out as Supreme Leader.
00:16:53.380 Expiration date speculated.
00:16:54.460 I'm sorry,
00:16:55.640 this is just,
00:16:56.160 it's going to be dumb.
00:16:56.920 You know what?
00:16:57.360 I'm sorry.
00:16:58.360 You're going to go to court
00:16:59.040 and Kalshi's going to be like,
00:17:00.480 here's the contract,
00:17:01.420 here are the rules.
00:17:03.040 Like if you didn't read
00:17:03.720 the contract that you're buying,
00:17:04.900 that's your fault.
00:17:05.880 You're buying contracts.
00:17:07.560 You can read them.
00:17:08.660 I don't understand
00:17:09.300 how this is just silly.
00:17:10.720 And considering Kalshi
00:17:11.640 paid out of pocket
00:17:12.560 to resolve this,
00:17:14.140 again,
00:17:14.840 I think it's largely,
00:17:16.300 largely silly.
00:17:17.980 Now,
00:17:18.140 Polymarket's different.
00:17:19.560 Polymarket is not allowed
00:17:20.920 in the United States.
00:17:21.780 So you can do it
00:17:22.460 in other places,
00:17:22.940 not here.
00:17:23.260 And they says
00:17:25.300 death means yes,
00:17:26.320 right?
00:17:27.360 If he's removed from power
00:17:28.880 for any length of time,
00:17:30.800 that's it.
00:17:31.720 And so,
00:17:32.600 for those outside of the U.S.,
00:17:34.280 the outcome was a yes.
00:17:35.440 And these people got paid.
00:17:37.040 The only issue is
00:17:37.700 you can't use Polymarket
00:17:38.880 in the United States
00:17:39.820 because it's not regulated.
00:17:41.980 Although it's largely
00:17:43.020 the same thing.
00:17:44.540 Interesting,
00:17:45.500 I suppose.
00:17:46.520 But my friends,
00:17:49.060 here's where it gets real fun
00:17:50.840 from Raw Story.
00:17:52.560 Possible military insider
00:17:54.020 bets big
00:17:54.900 Trump will send
00:17:56.080 U.S. troops to Iran.
00:17:57.900 This is where the prediction markets,
00:17:59.480 I think,
00:17:59.780 are valuable.
00:18:00.900 Not that I like
00:18:01.720 insider trading,
00:18:02.780 but that the wisdom
00:18:04.320 of the crowd.
00:18:05.500 People are buying contracts
00:18:06.620 based on their perception,
00:18:08.060 and then you will get
00:18:09.020 a rather accurate
00:18:10.300 probabilistic reading
00:18:11.440 as to whether something
00:18:12.560 will or will not happen.
00:18:14.200 Well,
00:18:14.880 here's a guy
00:18:15.540 who on Polymarket
00:18:17.920 made $100,000 this month
00:18:19.420 betting on U.S. military operations
00:18:21.640 and being largely correct.
00:18:23.360 Now,
00:18:23.580 what I want to say is,
00:18:24.500 as I've tracked all this stuff,
00:18:25.560 you need to understand,
00:18:26.480 right?
00:18:27.180 Right now,
00:18:28.100 we have on Polymarket,
00:18:29.700 will the U.S. invade Cuba
00:18:31.120 in 2026
00:18:32.140 with a 20% chance?
00:18:34.100 Okay,
00:18:34.900 I can't use Polymarket.
00:18:35.880 It's not allowed
00:18:36.100 in the United States,
00:18:36.520 but if you were to buy,
00:18:37.760 let's say $1,000,
00:18:39.560 let's do,
00:18:40.460 let's say about $1,000
00:18:42.820 that the U.S. will invade Cuba,
00:18:46.180 okay?
00:18:47.580 Well,
00:18:48.200 you would win,
00:18:50.080 you'd profit,
00:18:51.180 you'd cash out,
00:18:53.040 let's just say cash out,
00:18:54.060 $4,833
00:18:55.380 if they do.
00:18:57.120 But,
00:18:58.260 my friends,
00:18:59.420 that's not what matters.
00:19:01.680 If you were to,
00:19:03.180 right now,
00:19:04.060 sell a position,
00:19:04.900 so you can see here
00:19:05.620 that it's spiked,
00:19:06.220 right?
00:19:06.700 Let's say you bought it at 11%,
00:19:08.420 and now you're selling
00:19:09.760 those shares,
00:19:10.680 you'd make $181.
00:19:12.560 The point is this,
00:19:13.580 you don't need to actually
00:19:14.660 wait for the event
00:19:15.360 to happen or not happen.
00:19:16.660 So,
00:19:17.160 as many people are pointing out,
00:19:18.300 this guy's predicting
00:19:19.060 these things with accuracy,
00:19:20.560 well,
00:19:20.920 he's buying shares
00:19:22.060 that an event will happen
00:19:22.900 and then selling them
00:19:23.980 once he profits from them.
00:19:25.740 So,
00:19:26.140 for instance,
00:19:26.880 if you were on Polymarket
00:19:28.020 and said,
00:19:28.740 I think the U.S.
00:19:29.440 might invade Cuba,
00:19:30.160 I'll buy 1,000 shares.
00:19:31.600 Then,
00:19:32.120 Trump recently announced,
00:19:33.720 what did he say?
00:19:35.380 Cuba's government
00:19:35.980 will fall pretty soon.
00:19:37.660 Well,
00:19:37.940 it spikes following this.
00:19:39.680 And people are going,
00:19:40.500 I think we're going to invade Cuba.
00:19:42.920 As more people start
00:19:44.260 buying yes positions,
00:19:45.720 the value of your contracts
00:19:47.520 goes up
00:19:47.960 and you can sell them
00:19:49.060 and make a profit.
00:19:51.200 You don't need to actually
00:19:53.040 predict anything.
00:19:55.620 So,
00:19:56.140 that being said,
00:19:56.840 I think we got to take
00:19:58.200 these things with a grain of salt.
00:19:59.640 I do think there are
00:20:00.660 interesting questions
00:20:02.040 over,
00:20:03.300 I don't know,
00:20:04.540 whether or not it's going to be
00:20:05.660 a nightmare dystopia
00:20:07.980 or whatever.
00:20:08.960 But,
00:20:09.320 we're going to bring this one in
00:20:10.580 and have a good time
00:20:11.260 as we often do.
00:20:13.200 Who will attend
00:20:14.040 a White House press briefing
00:20:15.480 this year?
00:20:16.520 Oh boy!
00:20:17.620 Tim Poole
00:20:18.280 at 50%
00:20:19.160 and how much is wagered on it?
00:20:21.700 I think I,
00:20:22.580 wait,
00:20:23.200 are they,
00:20:24.160 normally you can see
00:20:24.880 the total volume here.
00:20:25.800 You can't see the volume here?
00:20:27.340 I think
00:20:28.120 Scott Besant
00:20:29.360 has,
00:20:30.620 you can see thousands
00:20:31.660 wagered.
00:20:32.620 Martha listens to her favourite band
00:20:34.700 all the time.
00:20:35.920 In the car,
00:20:37.840 gym,
00:20:38.440 even sleeping.
00:20:41.060 So,
00:20:41.620 when they finally went on tour,
00:20:43.020 Martha bundled her flight
00:20:43.980 and hotel on Expedia
00:20:45.120 to see them live.
00:20:46.220 She saved so much,
00:20:47.280 she got her seat close enough
00:20:48.280 to actually see
00:20:49.080 and hear them.
00:20:51.120 Sort of.
00:20:52.400 You were made
00:20:52.980 to scream from the front row.
00:20:54.660 We were made
00:20:55.220 to quietly save you more.
00:20:57.040 Expedia,
00:20:57.820 made to travel.
00:20:59.440 Savings vary
00:21:00.060 and subject to availability.
00:21:02.620 48,000
00:21:04.200 is the total volume
00:21:05.140 and look,
00:21:06.600 they got value bets,
00:21:08.260 liquidity rewards pool,
00:21:09.580 whatever.
00:21:10.220 You can wager
00:21:11.100 on me
00:21:12.440 going to a White House
00:21:13.940 press briefing this year.
00:21:15.180 I find this very strange.
00:21:17.080 I've never agreed
00:21:17.940 to be a part
00:21:19.240 of any kind of
00:21:20.320 event
00:21:21.120 in which people
00:21:22.200 could make wagers.
00:21:23.460 You know,
00:21:23.840 I'm not a boxer.
00:21:24.780 I didn't say
00:21:25.320 I'm going to be,
00:21:26.060 I'm going to go fight
00:21:26.760 and then people can bet
00:21:27.620 on whether I win or lose.
00:21:29.480 So,
00:21:30.000 why should I have
00:21:31.260 any,
00:21:31.720 any legal consideration
00:21:33.020 in this capacity?
00:21:34.800 Now,
00:21:34.980 this is a question
00:21:35.260 of insider information.
00:21:36.700 I've had people
00:21:37.440 jokingly be like,
00:21:38.680 let me know
00:21:39.200 if you're going to go.
00:21:41.200 And,
00:21:41.620 here's where it gets weird.
00:21:44.200 Insider trading
00:21:44.940 is illegal on Calci
00:21:46.100 and it's banned.
00:21:47.180 So,
00:21:47.600 I'm certainly not making
00:21:48.300 any wages on this
00:21:48.880 nor would I.
00:21:50.040 Mr. Beast recently
00:21:50.840 fired a guy
00:21:51.320 who apparently
00:21:51.840 was using his insider information
00:21:53.440 to make wagers on Calci
00:21:54.340 and make a lot of money.
00:21:55.760 Don't kill the goose
00:21:56.340 that laid the golden egg,
00:21:57.080 brother.
00:21:57.300 That was a dumb move.
00:21:58.480 But here's where
00:21:58.960 it gets interesting.
00:22:00.220 Whether or not
00:22:00.760 something is insider trading
00:22:01.680 has to do with
00:22:02.200 whether or not
00:22:02.580 information is available
00:22:03.580 to the public.
00:22:05.060 And public
00:22:05.740 does not mean
00:22:06.680 literally every person.
00:22:08.280 So,
00:22:08.660 let me give you
00:22:09.040 an example
00:22:09.460 of how things
00:22:10.000 get real weird.
00:22:12.240 Let's say
00:22:12.880 I go to
00:22:15.760 Kellen.
00:22:18.340 You know,
00:22:18.700 he's one of the
00:22:19.400 producers here.
00:22:20.060 He runs all the
00:22:21.100 content production.
00:22:22.180 And I say to him,
00:22:23.360 you know,
00:22:23.900 I don't tell anybody
00:22:24.420 but I am going tomorrow
00:22:25.780 to the press briefing.
00:22:26.560 Right?
00:22:26.600 Let's say I said that.
00:22:27.880 And then he
00:22:28.600 tells a friend
00:22:29.640 buy as many
00:22:30.420 yes,
00:22:32.080 Tim Poole's going to go.
00:22:32.960 We're going to do
00:22:33.220 $1,000
00:22:33.660 and you're going to
00:22:35.420 win $1,500.
00:22:36.320 What's the max
00:22:36.780 you can do?
00:22:37.200 The most you can do
00:22:37.740 is $1,700.
00:22:38.900 It's like
00:22:39.300 he tells someone
00:22:39.960 to do that.
00:22:40.780 You're going to win
00:22:41.540 $1,472 tomorrow
00:22:43.420 if you do this right now.
00:22:44.480 You're going to clear out
00:22:45.040 $400.
00:22:46.060 That's insider trading.
00:22:47.880 Kellen is providing
00:22:48.620 information only those
00:22:50.020 that the company know
00:22:50.920 and that is
00:22:52.200 insider trading.
00:22:53.220 Hold on there
00:22:53.900 a gosh darn minute.
00:22:55.000 Here's where it gets
00:22:55.600 real interesting.
00:22:57.140 Let's say that
00:22:58.120 instead of going to
00:22:58.840 Kellen,
00:22:59.680 I actually walked
00:23:01.160 outside
00:23:02.120 and was at
00:23:04.300 a restaurant.
00:23:06.060 Was at a restaurant
00:23:07.080 and there was a server
00:23:08.800 and the server goes,
00:23:11.600 I heard that
00:23:12.460 you're going to be,
00:23:13.720 you might go to the
00:23:14.520 White House press briefing
00:23:15.300 and there's like
00:23:15.580 wagers on it
00:23:16.080 and I'll be like,
00:23:16.740 yeah, you know,
00:23:17.660 truth be told,
00:23:18.580 I am literally going
00:23:19.640 tomorrow
00:23:20.120 and I don't care
00:23:21.600 if anybody knows it.
00:23:22.780 If that person
00:23:23.920 then goes and buys
00:23:25.440 not insider trading.
00:23:27.280 Now, hold on a minute.
00:23:28.100 You're like,
00:23:28.360 wait, wait, wait,
00:23:28.780 but they learned
00:23:29.440 directly from you.
00:23:30.520 No, no.
00:23:31.580 I was in public
00:23:32.860 or actually a better way
00:23:33.780 to put it is
00:23:34.360 there's arguments
00:23:36.540 been made here.
00:23:37.020 This could still
00:23:37.680 technically be
00:23:38.140 insider trading,
00:23:38.620 but the argument is
00:23:39.340 I am saying it publicly
00:23:41.160 in a restaurant
00:23:42.140 in front of a ton of people.
00:23:43.660 It is not privy
00:23:44.600 to information.
00:23:45.860 Now, the important thing
00:23:46.520 to understand
00:23:46.960 is why they get
00:23:47.540 so weird and wacky
00:23:48.540 is that
00:23:49.420 the insider trading rules
00:23:50.520 are basically about
00:23:51.660 stocks
00:23:53.560 and futures contracts
00:23:55.720 and short sales
00:23:56.180 and things like this.
00:23:56.800 Like, a company knows
00:23:58.720 that their product
00:23:59.780 has fallen short
00:24:00.780 and they're going to lose
00:24:02.280 a billion dollars off,
00:24:03.600 you know,
00:24:03.840 we projected to make a billion,
00:24:05.380 we're only going to make
00:24:06.180 900 million.
00:24:07.100 It's bad for their stock.
00:24:08.600 That information,
00:24:09.820 which is available
00:24:10.240 to only those in the company,
00:24:11.920 will ultimately result
00:24:13.400 in someone making a trade
00:24:15.540 to the detriment
00:24:16.120 of someone else
00:24:16.780 with privy information.
00:24:17.600 That's insider trading.
00:24:19.340 But,
00:24:20.700 this is something
00:24:21.660 totally different.
00:24:23.280 I'm not selling stocks.
00:24:25.200 Somebody else is.
00:24:26.940 How is it insider trading
00:24:28.000 when I have nothing to do
00:24:29.400 with the person
00:24:29.960 selling the stocks?
00:24:32.000 Therein lies
00:24:32.980 the interesting conundrum
00:24:34.640 around insider trading
00:24:35.500 and prediction markets.
00:24:36.660 If I am in public
00:24:38.320 at a restaurant
00:24:39.560 and state publicly
00:24:41.300 I am going to be there tomorrow,
00:24:44.320 it is now information
00:24:45.960 easily available
00:24:47.360 to the public.
00:24:48.360 Furthermore,
00:24:49.720 the argument,
00:24:50.520 you know,
00:24:50.700 Kalshi bans people
00:24:51.540 from having the ability
00:24:52.840 to control
00:24:53.640 or have insider information.
00:24:55.760 A server at a restaurant
00:24:56.980 is not a person
00:24:57.780 at my company.
00:24:58.760 They are a member
00:24:59.260 of the public
00:24:59.840 who has heard
00:25:00.840 from an official source
00:25:01.660 a thing is true.
00:25:03.460 Scale doesn't matter.
00:25:05.040 If I get on a bullhorn
00:25:06.760 and yell,
00:25:07.260 I'm going.
00:25:07.900 Doesn't matter.
00:25:08.740 If I go on Twitter
00:25:09.760 and post,
00:25:10.340 I'm going.
00:25:11.020 Doesn't matter.
00:25:12.280 Either way,
00:25:13.160 I have provided
00:25:14.440 the information
00:25:15.200 to the public
00:25:16.020 and scale
00:25:16.780 does not matter.
00:25:18.280 This whole thing
00:25:19.120 is just plain weird.
00:25:22.240 So again,
00:25:23.420 as to this wager,
00:25:25.080 will I go to
00:25:25.460 a White House press briefing?
00:25:26.960 Maybe.
00:25:28.320 Honestly,
00:25:28.920 I have no idea.
00:25:30.300 See,
00:25:30.460 the problem is
00:25:30.940 if you bet no,
00:25:32.020 you got to wait
00:25:32.580 until January 1st of 27
00:25:34.040 to get paid out
00:25:34.820 because that's when
00:25:36.120 you can definitively say
00:25:37.160 I'm not going
00:25:37.620 because I didn't go
00:25:38.360 in the years over.
00:25:39.460 As for the yes,
00:25:40.680 that could crack
00:25:41.460 literally any time
00:25:42.400 they ask me to come.
00:25:43.580 And if they do,
00:25:44.240 I will.
00:25:45.120 And to be honest,
00:25:45.500 I could call them up
00:25:46.200 and say I'm going to.
00:25:47.680 And that's where things
00:25:48.640 get really dumb
00:25:49.480 and really weird.
00:25:50.800 Who is or is not
00:25:51.900 allowed to buy these things?
00:25:53.480 If I'm at a restaurant
00:25:54.680 and here's where
00:25:55.540 it gets crazy again.
00:25:56.880 If I'm at a restaurant,
00:25:58.560 I record a video
00:25:59.620 of myself saying,
00:26:00.960 everybody,
00:26:01.820 I'm holding a press conference
00:26:03.220 here at the delicious
00:26:04.700 Cider Press
00:26:06.240 in Inwood,
00:26:06.800 West Virginia
00:26:07.300 with the best,
00:26:08.160 the best wings.
00:26:09.540 They really do
00:26:10.200 have good wings.
00:26:11.560 And I am here
00:26:13.140 to announce
00:26:13.600 at this press conference
00:26:14.400 I will be attending
00:26:15.600 this event tomorrow.
00:26:17.480 I have now informed
00:26:18.340 roughly 17 people
00:26:19.600 publicly that I'm
00:26:20.540 doing a thing.
00:26:21.320 It's no longer
00:26:21.880 insider information.
00:26:22.980 Now that this fact
00:26:23.820 is public,
00:26:24.500 can my brother
00:26:25.100 buy the contract?
00:26:26.120 Why not?
00:26:26.860 It's publicly
00:26:27.380 available information.
00:26:28.300 I told everybody
00:26:28.880 they could buy it
00:26:29.300 if they want.
00:26:29.720 They could tell
00:26:30.100 anybody they want to.
00:26:30.960 They can post the video.
00:26:32.020 I made the video.
00:26:33.380 Then later on,
00:26:34.040 if they say,
00:26:34.680 hey, your brother
00:26:35.180 bought this contract
00:26:35.800 that's insider trading,
00:26:36.480 I can say,
00:26:36.960 no, I publicly
00:26:38.140 announced it.
00:26:39.020 And after I publicly
00:26:39.800 announced it,
00:26:40.520 he waited a day
00:26:41.940 and then bought.
00:26:43.340 This is why it's so
00:26:44.500 just plum nuts.
00:26:46.780 I have nothing to do
00:26:48.020 with the sale
00:26:48.480 of this contract.
00:26:50.080 And that's where
00:26:50.800 it's weird.
00:26:52.140 Insider trading
00:26:52.820 was the people
00:26:53.900 at the company
00:26:54.780 buying and selling
00:26:55.580 stocks of the company
00:26:57.220 with information
00:26:58.200 from that company.
00:26:59.560 I don't work
00:27:00.460 for Kalshi.
00:27:01.300 To be fair,
00:27:02.220 they sponsor us
00:27:02.940 to do what's called
00:27:03.380 like a micro read.
00:27:04.180 Basically,
00:27:05.260 there are circumstances
00:27:06.360 where we value
00:27:07.340 the wisdom of the crowd
00:27:08.340 in their predictions.
00:27:09.740 And we had been using
00:27:10.920 prediction markets
00:27:11.660 as an additional context
00:27:13.780 to whether or not
00:27:14.560 an event might occur,
00:27:15.460 largely political elections.
00:27:17.280 Kalshi thought
00:27:17.780 it was a really great idea
00:27:18.920 and offered up
00:27:20.100 a micro sponsorship,
00:27:21.960 which basically means
00:27:22.860 if you do a set of,
00:27:25.200 like if you are going
00:27:26.640 to use these prediction markets,
00:27:28.440 just shout out Kalshi
00:27:29.760 and we'll pay you
00:27:32.000 as a sponsorship.
00:27:32.820 And we are like,
00:27:33.500 we're largely already doing it.
00:27:34.760 We do love
00:27:35.540 the prediction markets
00:27:36.580 as they benefit us
00:27:37.300 in trying to understand
00:27:38.520 what's going on in the world.
00:27:39.460 And so again,
00:27:39.860 with all due respect,
00:27:40.540 I am a fan.
00:27:41.440 I am a big fan.
00:27:42.320 As I told you,
00:27:43.120 I play around on this sometimes.
00:27:45.900 Don't buy contracts.
00:27:48.260 You can't,
00:27:48.880 don't do any of this.
00:27:50.540 Just don't listen to me.
00:27:52.080 But it exists.
00:27:53.180 I'm a fan.
00:27:54.240 And I'm going to give you
00:27:55.360 my honest thoughts
00:27:55.880 and opinions.
00:27:56.680 That being said,
00:27:57.340 I'm going to stress this again.
00:27:59.100 Insider trading rules
00:28:00.420 are,
00:28:01.780 this is what's crazy.
00:28:04.440 It's crazy to me.
00:28:05.960 The scenario that I explained
00:28:07.340 where I go to Kellen
00:28:09.060 and say,
00:28:09.880 I'm going to be there tomorrow.
00:28:11.140 And then him telling someone
00:28:12.520 to buy is insider trading.
00:28:13.880 Despite the fact
00:28:14.760 we are not selling
00:28:16.320 these contracts.
00:28:18.260 Again,
00:28:18.820 we are,
00:28:19.220 we have nothing to do
00:28:20.220 with the sale of these contracts.
00:28:22.120 That's where it gets just weird
00:28:23.260 in my opinion.
00:28:24.080 I never asked anybody
00:28:25.380 to sell a contract.
00:28:26.460 I don't even know
00:28:27.180 why it's there.
00:28:27.700 I don't even know
00:28:28.500 how contracts get made
00:28:29.380 on Kelsey.
00:28:30.540 Do you just like
00:28:31.280 request it or something?
00:28:32.240 Honestly,
00:28:32.580 I don't know.
00:28:34.320 So why would it be
00:28:35.620 insider trading?
00:28:36.960 And for that matter,
00:28:38.480 we're going to have to
00:28:38.960 figure the rules out
00:28:39.560 on this one.
00:28:40.260 If I walk up to a stranger
00:28:41.660 while filming
00:28:42.820 and say,
00:28:43.620 hey buddy,
00:28:44.620 I don't know,
00:28:45.160 do I know you?
00:28:45.740 I don't know you.
00:28:46.340 What's your,
00:28:46.600 I don't even know your name.
00:28:47.200 Hey, guess what?
00:28:47.500 I'm going to be at the White House
00:28:48.180 tomorrow in the press briefing.
00:28:49.380 I've now informed the public
00:28:50.620 and now what?
00:28:51.920 Now,
00:28:52.660 can that guy go
00:28:53.500 and buy the shares?
00:28:54.860 Yeah,
00:28:55.140 I went out in public
00:28:55.780 and said I was doing a thing.
00:28:57.260 It's just so weird.
00:28:59.500 Anyway,
00:29:00.760 I do think it's,
00:29:01.640 I don't think it's
00:29:02.520 the end of the world.
00:29:03.020 I think a lot of people are,
00:29:04.060 you know,
00:29:04.300 Washington Post
00:29:05.140 call it dystopian.
00:29:06.340 I don't agree.
00:29:07.580 I really,
00:29:08.240 really don't.
00:29:09.540 Casinos are popping up
00:29:10.300 all over the place
00:29:10.940 and there's issues
00:29:11.640 with our culture.
00:29:13.060 But I personally
00:29:14.060 don't believe that
00:29:15.520 somebody who wants to,
00:29:17.400 look,
00:29:17.640 I'll put it like this.
00:29:18.980 People say,
00:29:19.480 Tim,
00:29:19.760 do you think sports betting
00:29:20.960 is bad?
00:29:21.320 And I'm like,
00:29:21.600 no,
00:29:21.700 I love sports betting.
00:29:22.620 I don't really do it
00:29:23.360 all that often.
00:29:24.280 I sometimes will just wager
00:29:25.600 a couple bucks
00:29:26.200 on who is the favorite
00:29:27.100 for fun.
00:29:28.360 And then you're like,
00:29:29.180 at the end of the week,
00:29:29.500 I'm like,
00:29:29.740 look at this,
00:29:30.040 you just bet on the winners
00:29:30.740 and you keep making money.
00:29:31.520 It's fun.
00:29:32.100 Some people like the long shots,
00:29:33.220 you make more money.
00:29:34.600 But,
00:29:35.160 and sometimes the long shots
00:29:36.320 do win.
00:29:37.180 My point is this.
00:29:38.700 A guy and his buddies,
00:29:39.660 they work hard all week.
00:29:41.000 They love sports.
00:29:42.460 They want to throw down
00:29:43.520 20 bucks or whatever
00:29:45.100 on a Friday night,
00:29:46.260 add a little spice
00:29:46.940 to the game.
00:29:47.680 And then with that extra 20 bucks
00:29:48.920 they end up winning,
00:29:49.800 they say,
00:29:50.260 I'm going to buy a round of beers.
00:29:51.480 You know,
00:29:51.660 a couple,
00:29:51.940 it's three beers,
00:29:52.700 right,
00:29:52.840 for me and my buddies.
00:29:53.820 That is perfectly,
00:29:55.240 perfectly okay.
00:29:56.880 A guy who makes
00:29:58.520 a decent living
00:29:59.120 and has disposable income
00:29:59.980 and loses its sports gambling
00:30:01.540 but is living within his means
00:30:03.160 and it's disposable
00:30:03.880 and he's living fine,
00:30:05.100 I got no problem with that.
00:30:06.880 A man who loses
00:30:08.680 his entire paycheck
00:30:09.500 to an addiction
00:30:10.220 to gambling.
00:30:11.100 This is a cultural issue.
00:30:13.200 I don't blame
00:30:14.180 every person
00:30:15.840 who enjoys
00:30:16.320 a glass of wine
00:30:17.180 because alcoholics
00:30:18.560 abuse alcohol.
00:30:20.440 And that is why
00:30:21.360 I'm like,
00:30:21.880 we shouldn't ban alcohol
00:30:23.720 because of alcoholics.
00:30:25.320 We need to solve
00:30:26.380 for the issue
00:30:26.980 of alcoholics.
00:30:28.800 So my friends,
00:30:30.440 what a weird reason
00:30:31.340 for a lawsuit I guess.
00:30:32.780 But hey,
00:30:33.700 this stuff's getting wild,
00:30:34.900 it's getting crazy
00:30:35.480 and I got to tell you
00:30:36.100 there are people
00:30:36.600 who are making mad bank.
00:30:38.360 I think we can,
00:30:40.220 if we go to Kalshi,
00:30:42.000 and actually,
00:30:42.660 let me see if I can
00:30:43.460 just find it over here.
00:30:44.640 I don't want to accidentally
00:30:45.280 pull up something
00:30:46.000 that I shouldn't pull up.
00:30:47.720 They've got like a
00:30:48.900 leaderboard.
00:30:51.220 Yeah, here,
00:30:51.700 we got a leaderboard.
00:30:53.620 Check this stuff out.
00:30:54.860 This is crazy.
00:30:56.260 And again,
00:30:56.640 they don't tell me
00:30:57.120 to say any of this stuff.
00:30:57.820 I'm not saying that,
00:30:58.500 like I'm sure I've said stuff
00:30:59.520 that'll piss off Kalshi
00:31:00.300 all the same.
00:31:01.480 But this week,
00:31:03.400 some dude made 300 grand.
00:31:06.360 It's just absolutely insane.
00:31:09.940 This guy,
00:31:10.760 like who's the all-time?
00:31:13.160 The all-time.
00:31:15.200 This Square Sally's
00:31:16.820 made $5 million.
00:31:19.780 Let's go for the last year,
00:31:21.440 the last year.
00:31:22.740 In the last year,
00:31:23.560 Square Sally has made
00:31:24.460 $2 million.
00:31:26.580 This is crazy.
00:31:28.020 Wow.
00:31:31.780 Seriously,
00:31:32.300 who is this person?
00:31:34.500 They're like a day trader,
00:31:35.680 investor,
00:31:36.080 whatever,
00:31:36.440 massive volume.
00:31:37.360 They're probably already rich,
00:31:38.560 but making number 18 in P&L?
00:31:41.680 Ah, okay.
00:31:42.560 So they may,
00:31:43.280 the profit is good.
00:31:45.040 Profit is good.
00:31:45.820 In the last months,
00:31:47.620 Rekt has done $300,000.
00:31:52.480 That's just absolutely nuts to me.
00:31:54.240 You know,
00:31:54.700 whatever.
00:31:55.500 I'm gonna wrap it up there,
00:31:56.160 my friends.
00:31:57.300 I'm gonna wrap it up there.
00:31:58.000 Smash the like button.
00:31:58.840 Share the show with everyone you know.
00:31:59.800 Thanks for hanging out.
00:32:01.700 Times are getting crazy.
00:32:03.440 Crazy indeed.
00:32:04.060 You can follow me next on Instagram
00:32:04.800 at TimCast,
00:32:05.420 and we'll see you all in the next,
00:32:06.700 we'll see you all tonight
00:32:07.360 at 8 p.m. for TimCast IRL.
00:32:08.420 We'll see you all next time.
00:32:08.520 We'll see you all next time.