The Culture War - Tim Pool - Kalshi SUED By People BETTING MONEY On Iran Leaders Death

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00:00:30.000 A massive lawsuit has been filed over the killing of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran

00:00:36.280 and it's not for any of the reasons most people would expect.

00:00:39.400 It's because people were betting on the death of this man

00:00:42.580 to the tune of $54 million and they did not get paid.

00:00:46.680 This all has to do with the prediction market emergence.

00:00:50.100 Kalshi and Pali market and what people expect when they make wagers.

00:00:55.660 Technically not wagers.

00:00:56.600 They're buying contracts on the outcome of a future event

00:01:00.780 which has presented us with very weird circumstances.

00:01:05.360 Notably, there is a wager that I, Tim Pool,

00:01:08.560 will or will not appear at a White House press briefing this year.

00:01:12.280 And there are questions about whether or not I'm allowed to say anything.

00:01:15.940 It just becomes very, very weird.

00:01:17.520 Insider trading rules, regulations under the CFTC,

00:01:20.180 and it's resulting in a, well, weird future.

00:01:26.200 Because personally, I'm not completely opposed to the idea of prediction markets,

00:01:29.880 but there are circumstances arising around whether or not something is or is not insider trading.

00:01:34.620 Recently, a story came out about a potential insider

00:01:37.800 who accurately predicted major moves by the U.S. military

00:01:41.660 and profited to the tune of $100,000 in one month.

00:01:46.660 This individual is predicting that the U.S. will likely have boots on the ground in Iran,

00:01:51.940 but we'll see how much of this is actual insider knowledge

00:01:55.580 and how much of this is just speculation on a market

00:01:59.120 where you can sell your contract at any point for a profit.

00:02:02.060 The story with Kalshi is actually quite simple.

00:02:04.820 Khomeini was killed, and many people bet he would be out as supreme leader.

00:02:09.620 But Kalshi qualified this by saying death does not count as leaving office.

00:02:15.840 Therefore, if you bet he'd be out of office,

00:02:18.200 under the assumption that death meant leaving, it doesn't count.

00:02:21.860 There's a problem with that logic.

00:02:23.600 Because some people wagered he would not be out as supreme leader.

00:02:27.680 And if the rule is, in order to qualify for this bet as a yes or a no,

00:02:33.700 he must voluntarily or be removed from office.

00:02:37.960 Like, actually say, I hereby resign.

00:02:40.820 Or have someone come in and say, you are being removed.

00:02:43.720 And if that condition is not met,

00:02:47.520 then no is 100% and should pay out to those who bought that contract.

00:02:53.020 However, what ends up happening is Kalshi basically says,

00:02:56.420 we're going to freeze the market and pay everyone out

00:02:59.720 based on the last traded prices,

00:03:02.100 which is creating a whole lot of confusion.

00:03:05.180 So my friends, we're going to talk about this latest news,

00:03:08.380 but we're really going to dive into the wild world

00:03:10.720 that is getting massively like Scrooge McDuck rich

00:03:15.580 off of just guessing that something might happen.

00:03:18.420 Oh boy, a lot of people are.

00:03:21.040 Now, full disclosure, my friends,

00:03:23.040 we here at Timcast actually do have a sponsorship from Kalshi.

00:03:26.520 And with respect, I'm not going to hold back my thoughts and opinions for that matter,

00:03:30.760 but I will disclose we do have that sponsorship.

00:03:33.100 Additionally, I actually fall into this class action camp,

00:03:37.760 strangely, because I had previously made a purchase of contracts

00:03:42.180 that Khamenei would also be, he would be leaving office.

00:03:45.680 And I did this under the presumption we were going to blow him up

00:03:48.420 because Trump said he was going to blow him up.

00:03:50.360 And I was completely unaware that the wager,

00:03:53.520 I'm sorry, the contract was actually

00:03:55.320 that you were going to be expecting Khamenei to step down

00:04:00.200 from his lifetime appointment as the Supreme Leader.

00:04:03.740 And, you know, theoretically, you get old and he says,

00:04:05.780 I'll give to my son or something,

00:04:06.840 but no one really expected that to happen.

00:04:08.900 And so with all that being said,

00:04:11.000 I am not interested in any class action lawsuit

00:04:13.560 nor going after Kalshi for that matter.

00:04:14.880 It was a couple hundred bucks.

00:04:15.840 And I do it largely just for fun.

00:04:17.880 And, but I want to make sure I fully disclose

00:04:19.920 that I do have some skin in the game

00:04:22.440 as to how it pertains to all this stuff.

00:04:23.800 But I'll give you my genuine, honest thoughts and opinions

00:04:26.240 on the wacky and wild world that is prediction markets.

00:04:29.720 And I'm going to say this,

00:04:30.680 I'm actually slightly in favor of them.

00:04:33.200 I am not a hardcore, like,

00:04:36.660 I don't know what the right word is,

00:04:38.200 prohibitionist on various things.

00:04:41.200 I think the problems we face when it comes to potential gambling

00:04:44.860 or alcoholism or drugs is always cultural.

00:04:47.600 And I think it's fine if somebody wants to have fun

00:04:49.700 and, you know, buy a contract,

00:04:50.960 they think an event is going to happen

00:04:52.640 or a thing is going to be said.

00:04:54.300 I don't have a problem with it existing,

00:04:56.360 but I do have an issue with abuse in general.

00:04:58.160 And abuse, I think, can be solved through cultural remedies.

00:05:01.300 But let's read the news, my friends.

00:05:02.420 Before we do, I got a big announcement.

00:05:04.040 You guys got to go to casprew.com.

00:05:06.340 Scroll down and check it out.

00:05:08.140 Canned pool water now available.

00:05:10.760 If you ever wanted to drink pool water,

00:05:12.560 then something is wrong with you.

00:05:14.040 Please don't do it.

00:05:14.600 But if you want to drink canned pool branded water,

00:05:18.480 it's available now at casprew.com.

00:05:20.400 Limited supply, as of right now, we have 12-packs.

00:05:24.400 We only have about 947 12-packs,

00:05:27.360 and they're going to sell like hotcakes.

00:05:29.760 Like hotcakes they're going to sell

00:05:30.700 because it's a gag product and we're goofing off.

00:05:32.600 But I reached out to my crew,

00:05:35.420 and they said the warehouse says

00:05:36.980 there is no plastic lining this can,

00:05:40.640 which I honestly, I find that hard to believe

00:05:42.800 because almost every single can that you'll get

00:05:44.680 will have plastic liner in it.

00:05:46.260 Now, the caps do have plastic gaskets.

00:05:48.820 That's what I'm being told.

00:05:49.740 However, take that with a grain of salt.

00:05:51.900 I want to get official certification to make sure

00:05:53.880 because my understanding was

00:05:54.680 there is going to be plastic in these cans.

00:05:56.940 And that matters because I'm not here to lie to you guys.

00:05:58.960 Sell a product.

00:05:59.740 It's a fun gag product.

00:06:01.080 Water bottles are plastic.

00:06:02.480 Cans got plastic in them.

00:06:03.420 It is what it is.

00:06:04.360 But let's read the news, my friends.

00:06:05.620 It's major.

00:06:06.340 It's massive.

00:06:07.120 And it's an emerging market.

00:06:08.280 Betters wagered $54 million on Khomeini's death.

00:06:12.420 Now they're not getting paid.

00:06:14.700 Traders on the prediction market site,

00:06:16.220 Kalshi, assumed they had won a fortune 1.00

00:06:18.260 by correctly betting on the Iranian leader's demise.

00:06:20.920 The ensuing scandal has thrown a spotlight

00:06:22.680 on the dystopian rise of gambling on real world events.

00:06:26.800 But my friends, Bloomberg Law with the breaking news

00:06:29.420 as of today.

00:06:30.880 Let's throw it in the mix.

00:06:32.220 We got it here, boys.

00:06:34.220 Kalshi sued over death carve out

00:06:36.940 in Iran leader prediction market.

00:06:39.180 They say Kalshi Inc.

00:06:42.080 should have paid out on a $54 million market,

00:06:44.660 speculating when Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

00:06:47.160 would vacate his role after he was killed

00:06:49.500 during U.S. and Israeli airstrikes,

00:06:51.340 a proposed class action said.

00:06:53.400 Kalshi and his exchange,

00:06:54.480 his plain language rules,

00:06:56.140 made traders who predicted his departure

00:06:58.060 expect payouts.

00:06:59.440 And they didn't adequately disclose a death carve out

00:07:01.400 until after news of Khamenei's death had spread.

00:07:04.140 Said the complaint filed in the U.S. District Court

00:07:05.880 for the Central District of Columbia.

00:07:07.260 Then rather than halting trading

00:07:10.060 as reports of military strikes accumulated,

00:07:12.440 Kalshi lured more traders into yes positions

00:07:14.600 on Khamenei's exit

00:07:15.420 while knowing it wouldn't deliver payouts.

00:07:17.920 I'm gonna give you my honest opinion.

00:07:20.080 Kalshi had put out tweets.

00:07:22.020 And so let me show you this one.

00:07:24.260 It's from February 28th at 8.28 a.m.

00:07:27.520 Kalshi says,

00:07:28.040 Breaking, if you're just waking up,

00:07:29.020 there's been major news in Iran.

00:07:31.180 U.S. and Israel have begun major combat operations

00:07:34.360 in Iran targeting top Iran officials.

00:07:36.060 Iran launches counterattack on U.S. bases

00:07:38.520 in Qatar, Kuwait, UAE,

00:07:40.620 and retaliatory attacks in Israel.

00:07:42.740 American officials say strikes

00:07:43.800 will continue for days to weeks.

00:07:45.480 I do not believe that Kalshi intended

00:07:47.880 to wrong anybody.

00:07:49.700 My understanding is that Kalshi

00:07:51.080 has always had the rules

00:07:52.320 that these are not predicated

00:07:53.880 upon the death of the individual,

00:07:55.680 but actually leaving office.

00:07:57.180 I just think that most people didn't know this.

00:07:59.860 I think that Kalshi put this tweet out,

00:08:01.400 not with the intention to entice anybody.

00:08:03.420 And this is coming from somebody who,

00:08:05.400 I'm going to say this,

00:08:06.360 I believe I am owed substantially more money.

00:08:09.000 I do so.

00:08:09.660 I do so believe.

00:08:10.440 And I'll tell you why.

00:08:11.900 There's two perspectives on this.

00:08:14.780 And again, let me pause real quick.

00:08:17.180 And just, I want to reiterate.

00:08:18.560 The argument from the lawsuit

00:08:19.880 is that Kalshi knowingly was bringing people in,

00:08:23.940 saying, hey, look, we're striking Iran.

00:08:25.620 Thus people thought they were wagering.

00:08:27.700 I got to be careful how I say this.

00:08:28.820 But buying contracts on the outcome of Khamenei dying,

00:08:32.100 not choosing to leave office.

00:08:34.540 However, it's also fair to say

00:08:36.020 that anybody who actually read the rules

00:08:37.480 could expect that following these bombings,

00:08:39.800 Khamenei might actually say,

00:08:41.800 I am hereby resigning,

00:08:42.680 but come on, let's be real.

00:08:43.680 Nobody really believed that was possible.

00:08:45.940 But it still matters.

00:08:47.400 Because there's two options

00:08:48.860 as to how this plays out.

00:08:50.920 So you can see here that I myself

00:08:52.720 have profited to the tune of $323

00:08:54.880 with the exchange that I did.

00:08:57.380 I bought in for $315, cashed out for $638.

00:09:00.360 Now, the thing is,

00:09:01.720 I don't know the exact number.

00:09:03.700 I think when I bought it, it was like 26%.

00:09:05.700 There was a yes and a no potential.

00:09:09.120 No, I don't think he will leave.

00:09:11.080 Yes, I think he will leave.

00:09:12.940 Now, this matters.

00:09:14.340 This matters as it pertains to this lawsuit.

00:09:16.360 Because if Kalshi's rules

00:09:18.740 are that death does not qualify,

00:09:21.740 then I sold, I didn't, I didn't,

00:09:24.340 so here's how it played out for me.

00:09:25.380 When I had purchased futures contracts

00:09:28.660 that Khamenei would be out as a supreme leader,

00:09:31.980 and I assumed it meant dead.

00:09:33.680 And that's on me, that's fine, whatever.

00:09:36.300 When I woke up in the morning

00:09:37.360 and saw the news that they were bombing Iran,

00:09:39.200 I just sold my position.

00:09:40.620 I didn't wait for a conclusion

00:09:41.760 as to whether or not he did or did not die.

00:09:44.160 However, we know that he died instantly

00:09:46.860 around like 4 a.m. U.S. time.

00:09:49.280 And it was well after that I sold my position,

00:09:52.000 which creates a very, very interesting circumstance.

00:09:56.360 Kalshi's position is that,

00:09:59.360 no, this doesn't qualify as leaving office.

00:10:02.880 The contract is he would step down

00:10:05.260 or be politically removed, not killed.

00:10:07.620 In which case, if that is true,

00:10:10.340 the no payout should be 100%.

00:10:13.560 Why?

00:10:14.100 Because it is no longer possible

00:10:16.420 for such a circumstance.

00:10:18.640 Therefore, this middle position they've taken,

00:10:21.540 I believe, is wholly problematic.

00:10:23.800 And now, based on their own rules,

00:10:26.320 there is an interesting conundrum.

00:10:28.800 Several individuals,

00:10:29.960 or I should say the individuals launching this lawsuit,

00:10:32.240 are suing Kalshi under the presumption

00:10:34.140 that it should count that he left office,

00:10:36.680 that he died.

00:10:37.680 That was the presumption,

00:10:38.960 and that's why they were wagering.

00:10:40.080 However, if it is true that Kalshi's rules explicitly

00:10:43.560 and have always stated death doesn't count,

00:10:46.760 then it is now impossible.

00:10:49.200 The contract must close.

00:10:51.420 Khamenei can never be politically removed from office.

00:10:54.760 He can't step down,

00:10:56.180 abdicate, resign, or otherwise,

00:10:57.780 and he can't be couped.

00:10:59.120 In which case, the answer is definitively no.

00:11:02.580 He will not be leaving office.

00:11:05.420 He was just killed.

00:11:06.240 This should mean that I should retroactively get zero dollars.

00:11:11.340 Because when the news broke that the palace had been bombed,

00:11:16.140 here's another, okay, this is where it gets really crazy.

00:11:20.040 If it pays yes or no,

00:11:22.040 let's put a tack on that and put it aside.

00:11:24.040 At 4 a.m., when the U.S.,

00:11:26.660 I believe it's Eastern time,

00:11:28.180 blew up Khamenei's palace, killing him, 0.78

00:11:30.980 the contract concludes definitively.

00:11:33.740 Whether we know it or not,

00:11:36.400 which means upon learning,

00:11:41.360 be it at noon or 2 o'clock,

00:11:43.940 that Khamenei had been dead since 8 a.m.,

00:11:47.140 Kalshi should have reversed all trades up to that point

00:11:51.840 and concluded no,

00:11:54.560 which means I lose 100% of the money that I put in,

00:11:57.200 and anybody who bet no should instantly get a 100% payout

00:12:03.480 as it is now impossible for him to ever leave.

00:12:07.440 The answer would be no.

00:12:09.220 If, however,

00:12:10.640 the expectation and presumption and ultimate conclusion is

00:12:13.600 that Khamenei's death does qualify

00:12:16.540 as a yes on this contract,

00:12:19.120 then I should be paid out an additional 300 and some odd dollars.

00:12:23.920 Why?

00:12:25.260 Guys,

00:12:26.100 if I bought a contract that said

00:12:27.980 Khamenei's out as leader

00:12:29.260 and he was officially out as of 8 a.m.

00:12:32.880 because they killed him,

00:12:35.020 why would anyone be allowed to trade otherwise

00:12:37.220 if the event had already concluded?

00:12:40.180 Therein lies the problem with prediction markets.

00:12:43.620 You are not betting on a sporting event

00:12:45.820 with a known stop time.

00:12:47.880 You are betting on worldly events

00:12:50.180 that we have to confirm,

00:12:52.260 confirm one way or the other.

00:12:54.240 In which case,

00:12:55.400 imagine this.

00:12:56.960 Imagine you bet on the outcome of a Bears game.

00:13:00.400 You know,

00:13:00.640 the great old Indiana Hammond,

00:13:02.180 Hammond, Indiana Bears.

00:13:04.760 I'm hoping that's not gonna be the case.

00:13:07.240 Let's say you were like,

00:13:08.220 I think the Bears are gonna win, right?

00:13:10.920 Only problem is there's no reporters and no fans

00:13:13.160 and literally nobody watches the game.

00:13:14.440 You then get word at 4 a.m.

00:13:18.820 or you wake up to hear all these reports on social media

00:13:21.440 that Bears fans are cheering in the streets

00:13:24.420 and you go,

00:13:25.660 whoa,

00:13:25.820 I think I won.

00:13:27.240 So you get the option to sell out your position

00:13:29.520 and saying,

00:13:29.920 well,

00:13:29.940 I don't know for sure,

00:13:30.680 but I'm gonna,

00:13:31.180 no,

00:13:31.220 no,

00:13:31.280 no,

00:13:31.380 hold on.

00:13:32.440 The game was over.

00:13:33.960 The Bears had already won.

00:13:35.760 You are owed a complete payout on your bet.

00:13:39.120 That's it.

00:13:40.000 They shouldn't allow any more betting after the fact

00:13:42.400 just because you're waiting to find out

00:13:44.040 if you won.

00:13:44.500 But see,

00:13:44.780 the thing is,

00:13:45.500 with sports betting,

00:13:47.440 as opposed to whatever's going on

00:13:49.080 with prediction markets,

00:13:50.000 you have clear,

00:13:51.280 definitive end times.

00:13:53.880 So what do we do?

00:13:55.560 This is the weird space we're in.

00:13:57.360 Now,

00:13:57.700 understanding all of this,

00:13:59.620 to be fair,

00:14:00.340 I mean,

00:14:00.620 new things emerge all the time

00:14:01.980 and we sort through how to solve for them.

00:14:03.560 That's fair.

00:14:04.440 We understand that.

00:14:05.480 But therein lies the main problem.

00:14:07.720 If Kalshi, 0.98

00:14:08.640 again,

00:14:09.000 has always stated,

00:14:10.920 always stated,

00:14:12.420 that death does not count,

00:14:14.740 then I gotta be honest.

00:14:16.220 Well,

00:14:16.520 it's your own fault for not reading the rules.

00:14:18.180 Mine too.

00:14:19.040 And Kalshi should reverse every trade 1.00

00:14:21.160 after the time of confirmed death.

00:14:24.300 And I don't mean reported.

00:14:26.260 I mean,

00:14:27.020 when we blew up his building

00:14:28.480 and they said that's what killed him

00:14:30.400 and that was at 4 a.m.

00:14:31.880 Eastern time,

00:14:32.720 anything after that is reversed.

00:14:35.080 And that means for me,

00:14:36.520 I should lose every dollar that I got

00:14:38.920 because I said he would be removed.

00:14:40.880 And those are the rules.

00:14:41.580 And it's my fault if that's the case.

00:14:43.560 Let's read a little bit more

00:14:44.300 and then we'll get into what's going on currently

00:14:45.640 with maybe we can learn something from these markets.

00:14:49.420 And I'll tell you why I actually do like them.

00:14:52.440 They're going to say that

00:14:53.180 the language on Kalshi's market

00:14:54.620 was clear,

00:14:55.480 unambiguous,

00:14:55.920 and binary.

00:14:57.220 That if Kemeni left office,

00:14:58.380 those with yes would receive their full payout.

00:15:01.220 Kalshi's CEO said

00:15:03.000 that they don't list markets

00:15:04.680 that are directly tied to death.

00:15:05.640 This is a regulated market.

00:15:06.640 Poly market is not regulated in the United States.

00:15:08.260 And there's a reason why they do it.

00:15:10.600 Because you don't want people

00:15:11.520 betting on someone dying 0.99

00:15:12.620 because someone's incentivized to go kill them.

00:15:14.460 We don't want to live in that world, right?

00:15:16.000 As backlash mounted,

00:15:17.040 CEO Tarek Mansour said in a March 1st post,

00:15:19.740 Kalshi would reimburse fees and net losses.

00:15:22.380 The company would update

00:15:23.420 how it presented similar markets

00:15:24.700 with a death carve out

00:15:25.740 so traders can see the exception more clearly

00:15:28.240 before they trade.

00:15:29.640 Truth be told,

00:15:30.440 they actually gave me an extra 30 some odd dollars.

00:15:33.040 After all this concluded,

00:15:34.120 I got a notification

00:15:34.720 that they gave me a reimbursement

00:15:36.260 of around 30 bucks,

00:15:37.780 something to do with

00:15:39.020 the fair market value

00:15:40.320 of the market,

00:15:41.280 like of what I predicted.

00:15:42.520 I was owed money or something.

00:15:43.720 I honestly got no idea.

00:15:46.020 I was surprised.

00:15:47.280 I thought they were going to take all the money away

00:15:48.480 because it's a no, right?

00:15:50.980 While the rules were clear,

00:15:52.260 we tried our best to highlight them.

00:15:53.500 Traders vocalized 0.99

00:15:54.340 they were not prominent enough.

00:15:55.780 We heard you

00:15:56.300 and we decided to reimburse

00:15:57.160 out of pocket for all fees

00:15:58.320 and net losses

00:15:58.840 from trading in the market.

00:16:00.260 I got to be honest,

00:16:01.060 I think that's fair.

00:16:02.660 That's why I'm not interested

00:16:03.540 in this lawsuit.

00:16:04.780 I think anybody who wants

00:16:05.920 to buy a contract

00:16:06.660 and doesn't read the rules,

00:16:07.740 the rules are clear

00:16:08.460 and you can read them,

00:16:09.600 that's your fault

00:16:10.420 for making assumptions.

00:16:11.660 And that's the reality of

00:16:12.920 if you're trying to make wagers

00:16:14.520 on predictions,

00:16:15.380 whatever you want to call it,

00:16:16.620 that's your own business.

00:16:17.900 It's your own fault, right?

00:16:19.560 That being said,

00:16:21.020 there is an issue

00:16:21.600 for the no voters

00:16:22.920 that I think

00:16:23.480 actually is more worthy

00:16:24.980 of a lawsuit.

00:16:25.640 It is unfair in my opinion

00:16:27.880 to state the rules were clear

00:16:30.320 but not pay out

00:16:31.900 those who said no.

00:16:33.500 Therein lies the real problem

00:16:34.800 and the real potential lawsuit.

00:16:36.860 If you were someone

00:16:37.780 who wagered no,

00:16:39.300 Khomeini would not be out, 0.98

00:16:40.720 I believe you're owed

00:16:41.780 the full amount.

00:16:43.440 But here we are.

00:16:45.280 They say

00:16:46.140 the proposed class

00:16:47.300 would cover those

00:16:48.080 in the U.S.

00:16:48.780 who held yes

00:16:49.560 on Kalshi's Ali Khomeini

00:16:52.140 out as Supreme Leader.

00:16:53.380 Expiration date speculated.

00:16:54.460 I'm sorry,

00:16:55.640 this is just, 0.66

00:16:56.160 it's going to be dumb. 0.98

00:16:56.920 You know what?

00:16:57.360 I'm sorry.

00:16:58.360 You're going to go to court

00:16:59.040 and Kalshi's going to be like,

00:17:00.480 here's the contract,

00:17:01.420 here are the rules.

00:17:03.040 Like if you didn't read

00:17:03.720 the contract that you're buying,

00:17:04.900 that's your fault. 0.54

00:17:05.880 You're buying contracts.

00:17:07.560 You can read them.

00:17:08.660 I don't understand 0.68

00:17:09.300 how this is just silly. 0.70

00:17:10.720 And considering Kalshi 0.54

00:17:11.640 paid out of pocket

00:17:12.560 to resolve this,

00:17:14.140 again,

00:17:14.840 I think it's largely, 0.93

00:17:16.300 largely silly. 0.61

00:17:17.980 Now, 0.98

00:17:18.140 Polymarket's different.

00:17:19.560 Polymarket is not allowed

00:17:20.920 in the United States.

00:17:21.780 So you can do it

00:17:22.460 in other places,

00:17:22.940 not here.

00:17:23.260 And they says

00:17:25.300 death means yes,

00:17:26.320 right?

00:17:27.360 If he's removed from power

00:17:28.880 for any length of time,

00:17:30.800 that's it.

00:17:31.720 And so,

00:17:32.600 for those outside of the U.S.,

00:17:34.280 the outcome was a yes.

00:17:35.440 And these people got paid.

00:17:37.040 The only issue is

00:17:37.700 you can't use Polymarket

00:17:38.880 in the United States

00:17:39.820 because it's not regulated.

00:17:41.980 Although it's largely

00:17:43.020 the same thing.

00:17:44.540 Interesting,

00:17:45.500 I suppose.

00:17:46.520 But my friends,

00:17:49.060 here's where it gets real fun

00:17:50.840 from Raw Story.

00:17:52.560 Possible military insider

00:17:54.020 bets big

00:17:54.900 Trump will send

00:17:56.080 U.S. troops to Iran.

00:17:57.900 This is where the prediction markets,

00:17:59.480 I think,

00:17:59.780 are valuable.

00:18:00.900 Not that I like

00:18:01.720 insider trading,

00:18:02.780 but that the wisdom

00:18:04.320 of the crowd.

00:18:05.500 People are buying contracts

00:18:06.620 based on their perception,

00:18:08.060 and then you will get

00:18:09.020 a rather accurate

00:18:10.300 probabilistic reading

00:18:11.440 as to whether something

00:18:12.560 will or will not happen.

00:18:14.200 Well,

00:18:14.880 here's a guy

00:18:15.540 who on Polymarket

00:18:17.920 made $100,000 this month

00:18:19.420 betting on U.S. military operations

00:18:21.640 and being largely correct.

00:18:23.360 Now,

00:18:23.580 what I want to say is,

00:18:24.500 as I've tracked all this stuff,

00:18:25.560 you need to understand,

00:18:26.480 right?

00:18:27.180 Right now,

00:18:28.100 we have on Polymarket,

00:18:29.700 will the U.S. invade Cuba

00:18:31.120 in 2026

00:18:32.140 with a 20% chance?

00:18:34.100 Okay,

00:18:34.900 I can't use Polymarket.

00:18:35.880 It's not allowed

00:18:36.100 in the United States,

00:18:36.520 but if you were to buy,

00:18:37.760 let's say $1,000,

00:18:39.560 let's do,

00:18:40.460 let's say about $1,000

00:18:42.820 that the U.S. will invade Cuba,

00:18:46.180 okay?

00:18:47.580 Well,

00:18:48.200 you would win,

00:18:50.080 you'd profit,

00:18:51.180 you'd cash out,

00:18:53.040 let's just say cash out,

00:18:54.060 $4,833

00:18:55.380 if they do.

00:18:57.120 But,

00:18:58.260 my friends,

00:18:59.420 that's not what matters.

00:19:01.680 If you were to,

00:19:03.180 right now,

00:19:04.060 sell a position,

00:19:04.900 so you can see here

00:19:05.620 that it's spiked,

00:19:06.220 right?

00:19:06.700 Let's say you bought it at 11%,

00:19:08.420 and now you're selling

00:19:09.760 those shares,

00:19:10.680 you'd make $181.

00:19:12.560 The point is this,

00:19:13.580 you don't need to actually

00:19:14.660 wait for the event

00:19:15.360 to happen or not happen.

00:19:16.660 So,

00:19:17.160 as many people are pointing out,

00:19:18.300 this guy's predicting

00:19:19.060 these things with accuracy,

00:19:20.560 well,

00:19:20.920 he's buying shares

00:19:22.060 that an event will happen

00:19:22.900 and then selling them

00:19:23.980 once he profits from them.

00:19:25.740 So,

00:19:26.140 for instance,

00:19:26.880 if you were on Polymarket

00:19:28.020 and said,

00:19:28.740 I think the U.S.

00:19:29.440 might invade Cuba, 0.95

00:19:30.160 I'll buy 1,000 shares.

00:19:31.600 Then,

00:19:32.120 Trump recently announced,

00:19:33.720 what did he say?

00:19:35.380 Cuba's government

00:19:35.980 will fall pretty soon.

00:19:37.660 Well,

00:19:37.940 it spikes following this.

00:19:39.680 And people are going,

00:19:40.500 I think we're going to invade Cuba. 0.67

00:19:42.920 As more people start

00:19:44.260 buying yes positions,

00:19:45.720 the value of your contracts

00:19:47.520 goes up

00:19:47.960 and you can sell them

00:19:49.060 and make a profit.

00:19:51.200 You don't need to actually

00:19:53.040 predict anything.

00:19:55.620 So,

00:19:56.140 that being said,

00:19:56.840 I think we got to take

00:19:58.200 these things with a grain of salt.

00:19:59.640 I do think there are

00:20:00.660 interesting questions

00:20:02.040 over,

00:20:03.300 I don't know,

00:20:04.540 whether or not it's going to be

00:20:05.660 a nightmare dystopia

00:20:07.980 or whatever.

00:20:08.960 But,

00:20:09.320 we're going to bring this one in

00:20:10.580 and have a good time

00:20:11.260 as we often do.

00:20:13.200 Who will attend

00:20:14.040 a White House press briefing

00:20:15.480 this year?

00:20:16.520 Oh boy!

00:20:17.620 Tim Poole

00:20:18.280 at 50%

00:20:19.160 and how much is wagered on it?

00:20:21.700 I think I,

00:20:22.580 wait,

00:20:23.200 are they,

00:20:24.160 normally you can see

00:20:24.880 the total volume here.

00:20:25.800 You can't see the volume here?

00:20:27.340 I think

00:20:28.120 Scott Besant

00:20:29.360 has,

00:20:30.620 you can see thousands

00:20:31.660 wagered.

00:20:32.620 Martha listens to her favourite band

00:20:34.700 all the time.

00:20:35.920 In the car,

00:20:37.840 gym,

00:20:38.440 even sleeping.

00:20:41.060 So,

00:20:41.620 when they finally went on tour,

00:20:43.020 Martha bundled her flight

00:20:43.980 and hotel on Expedia

00:20:45.120 to see them live.

00:20:46.220 She saved so much,

00:20:47.280 she got her seat close enough

00:20:48.280 to actually see

00:20:49.080 and hear them.

00:20:51.120 Sort of.

00:20:52.400 You were made

00:20:52.980 to scream from the front row.

00:20:54.660 We were made

00:20:55.220 to quietly save you more.

00:20:57.040 Expedia,

00:20:57.820 made to travel.

00:20:59.440 Savings vary

00:21:00.060 and subject to availability.

00:21:02.620 48,000

00:21:04.200 is the total volume

00:21:05.140 and look,

00:21:06.600 they got value bets,

00:21:08.260 liquidity rewards pool,

00:21:09.580 whatever.

00:21:10.220 You can wager

00:21:11.100 on me

00:21:12.440 going to a White House

00:21:13.940 press briefing this year.

00:21:15.180 I find this very strange.

00:21:17.080 I've never agreed

00:21:17.940 to be a part

00:21:19.240 of any kind of

00:21:20.320 event

00:21:21.120 in which people

00:21:22.200 could make wagers.

00:21:23.460 You know,

00:21:23.840 I'm not a boxer.

00:21:24.780 I didn't say

00:21:25.320 I'm going to be,

00:21:26.060 I'm going to go fight

00:21:26.760 and then people can bet

00:21:27.620 on whether I win or lose.

00:21:29.480 So,

00:21:30.000 why should I have

00:21:31.260 any,

00:21:31.720 any legal consideration

00:21:33.020 in this capacity?

00:21:34.800 Now,

00:21:34.980 this is a question

00:21:35.260 of insider information.

00:21:36.700 I've had people

00:21:37.440 jokingly be like,

00:21:38.680 let me know

00:21:39.200 if you're going to go.

00:21:41.200 And,

00:21:41.620 here's where it gets weird.

00:21:44.200 Insider trading

00:21:44.940 is illegal on Calci

00:21:46.100 and it's banned.

00:21:47.180 So,

00:21:47.600 I'm certainly not making

00:21:48.300 any wages on this

00:21:48.880 nor would I.

00:21:50.040 Mr. Beast recently

00:21:50.840 fired a guy

00:21:51.320 who apparently

00:21:51.840 was using his insider information

00:21:53.440 to make wagers on Calci

00:21:54.340 and make a lot of money.

00:21:55.760 Don't kill the goose

00:21:56.340 that laid the golden egg,

00:21:57.080 brother. 1.00

00:21:57.300 That was a dumb move. 0.99

00:21:58.480 But here's where 0.99

00:21:58.960 it gets interesting.

00:22:00.220 Whether or not

00:22:00.760 something is insider trading

00:22:01.680 has to do with

00:22:02.200 whether or not

00:22:02.580 information is available

00:22:03.580 to the public.

00:22:05.060 And public

00:22:05.740 does not mean

00:22:06.680 literally every person.

00:22:08.280 So,

00:22:08.660 let me give you

00:22:09.040 an example

00:22:09.460 of how things

00:22:10.000 get real weird.

00:22:12.240 Let's say

00:22:12.880 I go to

00:22:15.760 Kellen.

00:22:18.340 You know,

00:22:18.700 he's one of the

00:22:19.400 producers here.

00:22:20.060 He runs all the

00:22:21.100 content production.

00:22:22.180 And I say to him,

00:22:23.360 you know,

00:22:23.900 I don't tell anybody

00:22:24.420 but I am going tomorrow

00:22:25.780 to the press briefing.

00:22:26.560 Right?

00:22:26.600 Let's say I said that.

00:22:27.880 And then he

00:22:28.600 tells a friend

00:22:29.640 buy as many

00:22:30.420 yes,

00:22:32.080 Tim Poole's going to go.

00:22:32.960 We're going to do

00:22:33.220 $1,000

00:22:33.660 and you're going to

00:22:35.420 win $1,500.

00:22:36.320 What's the max

00:22:36.780 you can do?

00:22:37.200 The most you can do

00:22:37.740 is $1,700.

00:22:38.900 It's like

00:22:39.300 he tells someone

00:22:39.960 to do that.

00:22:40.780 You're going to win

00:22:41.540 $1,472 tomorrow

00:22:43.420 if you do this right now.

00:22:44.480 You're going to clear out

00:22:45.040 $400.

00:22:46.060 That's insider trading.

00:22:47.880 Kellen is providing

00:22:48.620 information only those

00:22:50.020 that the company know

00:22:50.920 and that is

00:22:52.200 insider trading.

00:22:53.220 Hold on there 0.96

00:22:53.900 a gosh darn minute. 0.89

00:22:55.000 Here's where it gets 0.63

00:22:55.600 real interesting.

00:22:57.140 Let's say that

00:22:58.120 instead of going to

00:22:58.840 Kellen,

00:22:59.680 I actually walked

00:23:01.160 outside

00:23:02.120 and was at

00:23:04.300 a restaurant.

00:23:06.060 Was at a restaurant

00:23:07.080 and there was a server

00:23:08.800 and the server goes,

00:23:11.600 I heard that

00:23:12.460 you're going to be,

00:23:13.720 you might go to the

00:23:14.520 White House press briefing

00:23:15.300 and there's like

00:23:15.580 wagers on it

00:23:16.080 and I'll be like,

00:23:16.740 yeah, you know,

00:23:17.660 truth be told,

00:23:18.580 I am literally going

00:23:19.640 tomorrow

00:23:20.120 and I don't care

00:23:21.600 if anybody knows it.

00:23:22.780 If that person

00:23:23.920 then goes and buys

00:23:25.440 not insider trading.

00:23:27.280 Now, hold on a minute.

00:23:28.100 You're like,

00:23:28.360 wait, wait, wait,

00:23:28.780 but they learned

00:23:29.440 directly from you.

00:23:30.520 No, no.

00:23:31.580 I was in public

00:23:32.860 or actually a better way

00:23:33.780 to put it is

00:23:34.360 there's arguments

00:23:36.540 been made here.

00:23:37.020 This could still

00:23:37.680 technically be

00:23:38.140 insider trading,

00:23:38.620 but the argument is

00:23:39.340 I am saying it publicly

00:23:41.160 in a restaurant

00:23:42.140 in front of a ton of people.

00:23:43.660 It is not privy

00:23:44.600 to information.

00:23:45.860 Now, the important thing

00:23:46.520 to understand

00:23:46.960 is why they get

00:23:47.540 so weird and wacky

00:23:48.540 is that

00:23:49.420 the insider trading rules

00:23:50.520 are basically about

00:23:51.660 stocks

00:23:53.560 and futures contracts

00:23:55.720 and short sales

00:23:56.180 and things like this.

00:23:56.800 Like, a company knows

00:23:58.720 that their product

00:23:59.780 has fallen short

00:24:00.780 and they're going to lose

00:24:02.280 a billion dollars off,

00:24:03.600 you know,

00:24:03.840 we projected to make a billion,

00:24:05.380 we're only going to make

00:24:06.180 900 million.

00:24:07.100 It's bad for their stock.

00:24:08.600 That information,

00:24:09.820 which is available

00:24:10.240 to only those in the company,

00:24:11.920 will ultimately result

00:24:13.400 in someone making a trade

00:24:15.540 to the detriment

00:24:16.120 of someone else

00:24:16.780 with privy information.

00:24:17.600 That's insider trading.

00:24:19.340 But,

00:24:20.700 this is something

00:24:21.660 totally different.

00:24:23.280 I'm not selling stocks.

00:24:25.200 Somebody else is.

00:24:26.940 How is it insider trading

00:24:28.000 when I have nothing to do

00:24:29.400 with the person

00:24:29.960 selling the stocks?

00:24:32.000 Therein lies

00:24:32.980 the interesting conundrum

00:24:34.640 around insider trading

00:24:35.500 and prediction markets.

00:24:36.660 If I am in public

00:24:38.320 at a restaurant

00:24:39.560 and state publicly

00:24:41.300 I am going to be there tomorrow,

00:24:44.320 it is now information

00:24:45.960 easily available

00:24:47.360 to the public.

00:24:48.360 Furthermore,

00:24:49.720 the argument,

00:24:50.520 you know,

00:24:50.700 Kalshi bans people

00:24:51.540 from having the ability

00:24:52.840 to control

00:24:53.640 or have insider information.

00:24:55.760 A server at a restaurant

00:24:56.980 is not a person

00:24:57.780 at my company.

00:24:58.760 They are a member

00:24:59.260 of the public

00:24:59.840 who has heard

00:25:00.840 from an official source

00:25:01.660 a thing is true.

00:25:03.460 Scale doesn't matter.

00:25:05.040 If I get on a bullhorn

00:25:06.760 and yell, 1.00

00:25:07.260 I'm going.

00:25:07.900 Doesn't matter.

00:25:08.740 If I go on Twitter

00:25:09.760 and post,

00:25:10.340 I'm going.

00:25:11.020 Doesn't matter.

00:25:12.280 Either way,

00:25:13.160 I have provided

00:25:14.440 the information

00:25:15.200 to the public

00:25:16.020 and scale

00:25:16.780 does not matter.

00:25:18.280 This whole thing

00:25:19.120 is just plain weird.

00:25:22.240 So again,

00:25:23.420 as to this wager,

00:25:25.080 will I go to

00:25:25.460 a White House press briefing?

00:25:26.960 Maybe.

00:25:28.320 Honestly,

00:25:28.920 I have no idea.

00:25:30.300 See,

00:25:30.460 the problem is

00:25:30.940 if you bet no,

00:25:32.020 you got to wait

00:25:32.580 until January 1st of 27

00:25:34.040 to get paid out

00:25:34.820 because that's when

00:25:36.120 you can definitively say

00:25:37.160 I'm not going

00:25:37.620 because I didn't go

00:25:38.360 in the years over.

00:25:39.460 As for the yes,

00:25:40.680 that could crack

00:25:41.460 literally any time

00:25:42.400 they ask me to come.

00:25:43.580 And if they do,

00:25:44.240 I will.

00:25:45.120 And to be honest,

00:25:45.500 I could call them up

00:25:46.200 and say I'm going to.

00:25:47.680 And that's where things 0.98

00:25:48.640 get really dumb 0.96

00:25:49.480 and really weird. 0.99

00:25:50.800 Who is or is not

00:25:51.900 allowed to buy these things?

00:25:53.480 If I'm at a restaurant

00:25:54.680 and here's where

00:25:55.540 it gets crazy again.

00:25:56.880 If I'm at a restaurant,

00:25:58.560 I record a video

00:25:59.620 of myself saying,

00:26:00.960 everybody,

00:26:01.820 I'm holding a press conference

00:26:03.220 here at the delicious

00:26:04.700 Cider Press

00:26:06.240 in Inwood,

00:26:06.800 West Virginia

00:26:07.300 with the best,

00:26:08.160 the best wings.

00:26:09.540 They really do

00:26:10.200 have good wings.

00:26:11.560 And I am here

00:26:13.140 to announce

00:26:13.600 at this press conference

00:26:14.400 I will be attending

00:26:15.600 this event tomorrow.

00:26:17.480 I have now informed

00:26:18.340 roughly 17 people

00:26:19.600 publicly that I'm

00:26:20.540 doing a thing.

00:26:21.320 It's no longer

00:26:21.880 insider information.

00:26:22.980 Now that this fact

00:26:23.820 is public,

00:26:24.500 can my brother

00:26:25.100 buy the contract?

00:26:26.120 Why not?

00:26:26.860 It's publicly

00:26:27.380 available information.

00:26:28.300 I told everybody

00:26:28.880 they could buy it

00:26:29.300 if they want.

00:26:29.720 They could tell

00:26:30.100 anybody they want to.

00:26:30.960 They can post the video.

00:26:32.020 I made the video.

00:26:33.380 Then later on,

00:26:34.040 if they say,

00:26:34.680 hey, your brother

00:26:35.180 bought this contract

00:26:35.800 that's insider trading,

00:26:36.480 I can say,

00:26:36.960 no, I publicly

00:26:38.140 announced it.

00:26:39.020 And after I publicly

00:26:39.800 announced it,

00:26:40.520 he waited a day

00:26:41.940 and then bought.

00:26:43.340 This is why it's so

00:26:44.500 just plum nuts.

00:26:46.780 I have nothing to do

00:26:48.020 with the sale

00:26:48.480 of this contract.

00:26:50.080 And that's where

00:26:50.800 it's weird.

00:26:52.140 Insider trading

00:26:52.820 was the people

00:26:53.900 at the company

00:26:54.780 buying and selling

00:26:55.580 stocks of the company

00:26:57.220 with information

00:26:58.200 from that company.

00:26:59.560 I don't work

00:27:00.460 for Kalshi.

00:27:01.300 To be fair,

00:27:02.220 they sponsor us

00:27:02.940 to do what's called

00:27:03.380 like a micro read.

00:27:04.180 Basically,

00:27:05.260 there are circumstances

00:27:06.360 where we value

00:27:07.340 the wisdom of the crowd

00:27:08.340 in their predictions.

00:27:09.740 And we had been using

00:27:10.920 prediction markets

00:27:11.660 as an additional context

00:27:13.780 to whether or not

00:27:14.560 an event might occur,

00:27:15.460 largely political elections.

00:27:17.280 Kalshi thought

00:27:17.780 it was a really great idea

00:27:18.920 and offered up

00:27:20.100 a micro sponsorship,

00:27:21.960 which basically means

00:27:22.860 if you do a set of,

00:27:25.200 like if you are going

00:27:26.640 to use these prediction markets,

00:27:28.440 just shout out Kalshi

00:27:29.760 and we'll pay you

00:27:32.000 as a sponsorship.

00:27:32.820 And we are like,

00:27:33.500 we're largely already doing it.

00:27:34.760 We do love

00:27:35.540 the prediction markets

00:27:36.580 as they benefit us

00:27:37.300 in trying to understand

00:27:38.520 what's going on in the world.

00:27:39.460 And so again,

00:27:39.860 with all due respect,

00:27:40.540 I am a fan.

00:27:41.440 I am a big fan.

00:27:42.320 As I told you,

00:27:43.120 I play around on this sometimes.

00:27:45.900 Don't buy contracts.

00:27:48.260 You can't,

00:27:48.880 don't do any of this.

00:27:50.540 Just don't listen to me.

00:27:52.080 But it exists.

00:27:53.180 I'm a fan.

00:27:54.240 And I'm going to give you

00:27:55.360 my honest thoughts

00:27:55.880 and opinions.

00:27:56.680 That being said,

00:27:57.340 I'm going to stress this again.

00:27:59.100 Insider trading rules

00:28:00.420 are,

00:28:01.780 this is what's crazy.

00:28:04.440 It's crazy to me.

00:28:05.960 The scenario that I explained

00:28:07.340 where I go to Kellen

00:28:09.060 and say,

00:28:09.880 I'm going to be there tomorrow.

00:28:11.140 And then him telling someone

00:28:12.520 to buy is insider trading.

00:28:13.880 Despite the fact

00:28:14.760 we are not selling

00:28:16.320 these contracts.

00:28:18.260 Again,

00:28:18.820 we are,

00:28:19.220 we have nothing to do

00:28:20.220 with the sale of these contracts.

00:28:22.120 That's where it gets just weird

00:28:23.260 in my opinion.

00:28:24.080 I never asked anybody

00:28:25.380 to sell a contract.

00:28:26.460 I don't even know

00:28:27.180 why it's there.

00:28:27.700 I don't even know

00:28:28.500 how contracts get made

00:28:29.380 on Kelsey.

00:28:30.540 Do you just like

00:28:31.280 request it or something?

00:28:32.240 Honestly,

00:28:32.580 I don't know.

00:28:34.320 So why would it be

00:28:35.620 insider trading?

00:28:36.960 And for that matter,

00:28:38.480 we're going to have to

00:28:38.960 figure the rules out

00:28:39.560 on this one.

00:28:40.260 If I walk up to a stranger

00:28:41.660 while filming

00:28:42.820 and say,

00:28:43.620 hey buddy,

00:28:44.620 I don't know,

00:28:45.160 do I know you?

00:28:45.740 I don't know you.

00:28:46.340 What's your,

00:28:46.600 I don't even know your name.

00:28:47.200 Hey, guess what?

00:28:47.500 I'm going to be at the White House

00:28:48.180 tomorrow in the press briefing.

00:28:49.380 I've now informed the public

00:28:50.620 and now what?

00:28:51.920 Now,

00:28:52.660 can that guy go

00:28:53.500 and buy the shares?

00:28:54.860 Yeah,

00:28:55.140 I went out in public

00:28:55.780 and said I was doing a thing.

00:28:57.260 It's just so weird.

00:28:59.500 Anyway,

00:29:00.760 I do think it's,

00:29:01.640 I don't think it's

00:29:02.520 the end of the world.

00:29:03.020 I think a lot of people are,

00:29:04.060 you know,

00:29:04.300 Washington Post

00:29:05.140 call it dystopian.

00:29:06.340 I don't agree.

00:29:07.580 I really,

00:29:08.240 really don't.

00:29:09.540 Casinos are popping up

00:29:10.300 all over the place

00:29:10.940 and there's issues

00:29:11.640 with our culture.

00:29:13.060 But I personally

00:29:14.060 don't believe that

00:29:15.520 somebody who wants to,

00:29:17.400 look,

00:29:17.640 I'll put it like this.

00:29:18.980 People say,

00:29:19.480 Tim,

00:29:19.760 do you think sports betting

00:29:20.960 is bad?

00:29:21.320 And I'm like,

00:29:21.600 no,

00:29:21.700 I love sports betting.

00:29:22.620 I don't really do it

00:29:23.360 all that often.

00:29:24.280 I sometimes will just wager

00:29:25.600 a couple bucks

00:29:26.200 on who is the favorite

00:29:27.100 for fun.

00:29:28.360 And then you're like,

00:29:29.180 at the end of the week,

00:29:29.500 I'm like,

00:29:29.740 look at this,

00:29:30.040 you just bet on the winners

00:29:30.740 and you keep making money.

00:29:31.520 It's fun.

00:29:32.100 Some people like the long shots,

00:29:33.220 you make more money.

00:29:34.600 But,

00:29:35.160 and sometimes the long shots

00:29:36.320 do win.

00:29:37.180 My point is this.

00:29:38.700 A guy and his buddies,

00:29:39.660 they work hard all week.

00:29:41.000 They love sports.

00:29:42.460 They want to throw down

00:29:43.520 20 bucks or whatever

00:29:45.100 on a Friday night,

00:29:46.260 add a little spice

00:29:46.940 to the game.

00:29:47.680 And then with that extra 20 bucks

00:29:48.920 they end up winning,

00:29:49.800 they say,

00:29:50.260 I'm going to buy a round of beers.

00:29:51.480 You know,

00:29:51.660 a couple,

00:29:51.940 it's three beers,

00:29:52.700 right,

00:29:52.840 for me and my buddies.

00:29:53.820 That is perfectly,

00:29:55.240 perfectly okay.

00:29:56.880 A guy who makes 0.92

00:29:58.520 a decent living

00:29:59.120 and has disposable income

00:29:59.980 and loses its sports gambling

00:30:01.540 but is living within his means

00:30:03.160 and it's disposable

00:30:03.880 and he's living fine,

00:30:05.100 I got no problem with that.

00:30:06.880 A man who loses 0.73

00:30:08.680 his entire paycheck

00:30:09.500 to an addiction

00:30:10.220 to gambling.

00:30:11.100 This is a cultural issue.

00:30:13.200 I don't blame

00:30:14.180 every person

00:30:15.840 who enjoys

00:30:16.320 a glass of wine

00:30:17.180 because alcoholics

00:30:18.560 abuse alcohol.

00:30:20.440 And that is why

00:30:21.360 I'm like,

00:30:21.880 we shouldn't ban alcohol

00:30:23.720 because of alcoholics.

00:30:25.320 We need to solve

00:30:26.380 for the issue

00:30:26.980 of alcoholics.

00:30:28.800 So my friends,

00:30:30.440 what a weird reason

00:30:31.340 for a lawsuit I guess.

00:30:32.780 But hey,

00:30:33.700 this stuff's getting wild,

00:30:34.900 it's getting crazy

00:30:35.480 and I got to tell you

00:30:36.100 there are people

00:30:36.600 who are making mad bank.

00:30:38.360 I think we can,

00:30:40.220 if we go to Kalshi,

00:30:42.000 and actually,

00:30:42.660 let me see if I can

00:30:43.460 just find it over here.

00:30:44.640 I don't want to accidentally

00:30:45.280 pull up something

00:30:46.000 that I shouldn't pull up.

00:30:47.720 They've got like a

00:30:48.900 leaderboard.

00:30:51.220 Yeah, here,

00:30:51.700 we got a leaderboard.

00:30:53.620 Check this stuff out.

00:30:54.860 This is crazy.

00:30:56.260 And again,

00:30:56.640 they don't tell me

00:30:57.120 to say any of this stuff.

00:30:57.820 I'm not saying that,

00:30:58.500 like I'm sure I've said stuff

00:30:59.520 that'll piss off Kalshi

00:31:00.300 all the same.

00:31:01.480 But this week,

00:31:03.400 some dude made 300 grand.

00:31:06.360 It's just absolutely insane.

00:31:09.940 This guy,

00:31:10.760 like who's the all-time?

00:31:13.160 The all-time.

00:31:15.200 This Square Sally's

00:31:16.820 made $5 million.

00:31:19.780 Let's go for the last year,

00:31:21.440 the last year.

00:31:22.740 In the last year,

00:31:23.560 Square Sally has made

00:31:24.460 $2 million.

00:31:26.580 This is crazy.

00:31:28.020 Wow.

00:31:31.780 Seriously,

00:31:32.300 who is this person?

00:31:34.500 They're like a day trader,

00:31:35.680 investor,

00:31:36.080 whatever,

00:31:36.440 massive volume.

00:31:37.360 They're probably already rich,

00:31:38.560 but making number 18 in P&L?

00:31:41.680 Ah, okay.

00:31:42.560 So they may,

00:31:43.280 the profit is good.

00:31:45.040 Profit is good.

00:31:45.820 In the last months,

00:31:47.620 Rekt has done $300,000.

00:31:52.480 That's just absolutely nuts to me.

00:31:54.240 You know,

00:31:54.700 whatever.

00:31:55.500 I'm gonna wrap it up there,

00:31:56.160 my friends.

00:31:57.300 I'm gonna wrap it up there.

00:31:58.000 Smash the like button.

00:31:58.840 Share the show with everyone you know.

00:31:59.800 Thanks for hanging out.

00:32:01.700 Times are getting crazy.

00:32:03.440 Crazy indeed.

00:32:04.060 You can follow me next on Instagram

00:32:04.800 at TimCast,

00:32:05.420 and we'll see you all in the next,

00:32:06.700 we'll see you all tonight

00:32:07.360 at 8 p.m. for TimCast IRL.

00:32:08.420 We'll see you all next time.

00:32:08.520 We'll see you all next time.

The Culture War - Tim Pool - March 06, 2026

Kalshi SUED By People BETTING MONEY On Iran Leaders Death

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