The Culture War - Tim Pool - April 29, 2026


SCOTUS Ruling Is A NUCLEAR BOMB On Democrats, GOP Could WIN THE MIDTERMS


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Length

31 minutes

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164.2787

Word count

5,129

Sentence count

471

Harmful content

Misogyny

7

sentences flagged

Toxicity

14

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Hate speech

34

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Supreme Court strikes down the Voting Rights Act and forces Republicans to redraw their congressional maps to reflect the new ruling. Is this a good or bad thing? And what does it mean for the future of the country?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:30.380 Ladies and gentlemen, the Supreme Court has just dropped a nuclear bomb on politics in this country
00:00:37.620 with a landmark ruling on the Voter Rights Act,
00:00:41.760 essentially saying the southern states, the Republican states,
00:00:45.860 don't need to have forced racial gerrymandering.
00:00:50.040 In fact, in some instances, they actually have to get rid of them.
00:00:53.120 If the Republicans decide to take this ruling to heart and now under this pretext, redraw their maps, it will remove 12 Democrat seats and boost the Republicans 12 seats in Congress, creating what appears to be a near permanent majority for the Republican Party, which is why I'm pretty sure they're not going to do it.
00:01:19.480 But anyway, opinions aside, the crux of this has to do with the fact that for a long time,
00:01:26.840 there have been congressional districts in southern states made specifically based on race.
00:01:34.460 They're calling them majority minority districts. 0.74
00:01:38.020 And the argument was, if you got a bunch of black people in the state, 0.97
00:01:41.820 they deserve to have their own representative based on nothing but their race. 0.99
00:01:48.120 And I think that's just plum nuts to create members of Congress whose sole or principal
00:01:55.960 issue is their race is to create permanent structural racism in this country.
00:02:03.020 Now, the left argues that black people have interests based on race because of historical
00:02:08.460 inequities, and thus they should get their own congressional districts where they can
00:02:13.700 elect who they think will represent them better.
00:02:17.400 Now, perhaps that made sense a long time ago.
00:02:19.900 And this is something the Supreme Court actually brought up.
00:02:22.160 Perhaps there should have been a sun setting.
00:02:24.780 Perhaps it should have been that over time, these provisions become weaker.
00:02:28.360 Now, the interesting thing, Alito, writing for the majority, did not say they should
00:02:33.180 throw out the Voting Rights Act, but that there are certain ways it must be addressed.
00:02:39.500 With some conservative commentators saying, brilliant move.
00:02:43.420 Why?
00:02:43.640 It actually allows conservatives to use the VRA to their advantage to argue they can now 0.98
00:02:50.720 redraw all their maps. That is, my friends, as the liberals were complaining, Trump told Texas to
00:02:59.400 redraw their maps now, mid-decade, to give the Republican Party an advantage. So they did.
00:03:04.720 Democrats said we can play ball. The only issue is the reason Trump told them to do it
00:03:08.940 is because Democrats already did. In New England, for instance, where you've got 30 to 40 percent
00:03:14.540 Republican, you have almost no representation. In Illinois, they create these thin strips that
00:03:20.200 make no sense as congressional districts just to make sure they can get a majority Democrat
00:03:24.700 district. Now, I'm not going to sit here and defend Republicans' mid-decade redistricting.
00:03:29.080 At the very least, you can argue Democrats, I'm sorry, Republicans' mid-decade, I said Democrats,
00:03:33.420 Republicans' mid-decade, you can argue Democrats have weird gerrymandered districts,
00:03:37.320 But at least everybody waited until the census to make these changes.
00:03:41.080 However, it created permanent political control in some of these states.
00:03:45.380 California responds by drawing up ridiculous maps to ice out Republicans.
00:03:49.780 Florida is now responding.
00:03:51.200 So you know what?
00:03:52.240 Maybe Hakeem Jeffries is right.
00:03:55.740 Maximum warfare.
00:03:57.080 That's what he called it.
00:03:58.420 In Virginia, I'm going to tell you the issue I take with Democrats. 0.95
00:04:01.320 I'm going to tell you they have historically gerrymandered in ridiculous ways.
00:04:04.120 And in Virginia, they're trying to put five congressional districts in Fairfax County,
00:04:09.040 which I find offensive.
00:04:11.200 Now, I don't live in Virginia, but as someone who lives in the tri-state, I go to Virginia
00:04:16.280 every single day.
00:04:18.220 OK, not literally.
00:04:19.560 Actually, yeah, maybe every single day.
00:04:21.520 I go there for donuts, not literally because I don't eat donuts, but the Dunkin' Donuts
00:04:25.880 is on the other side.
00:04:26.980 And we live on the border in the eastern panhandle of West Virginia.
00:04:30.320 So Virginia is a common place for us to go.
00:04:33.380 We eat there quite a bit.
00:04:34.180 Got great restaurants, by the way.
00:04:35.860 And now they're affecting these districts where some of our crew actually lives and
00:04:40.920 taking away their representation and making it all Democrat with tricks.
00:04:46.160 You can argue that Texas should not have redistrict.
00:04:49.260 But what Texas did was they basically said, we've seen a major population shift.
00:04:54.020 So we're going to redraw the maps.
00:04:56.440 Light red areas became dark red.
00:04:58.400 And what this did was it made Republican districts less competitive.
00:05:02.660 Meaning, even if the polls swing towards Democrat, they were giving themselves an
00:05:07.320 advantage. It wasn't a guarantee, but by all means, argue it was dirty. That's fine.
00:05:12.260 I don't think they should have done it, but I understand the idea of political warfare. Well,
00:05:16.300 Democrats struck back tenfold. And now if Republicans decide to play ball,
00:05:21.800 it is going to be the most insane of midterm elections. But let me just wrap in one point
00:05:27.760 on this one, my friends. The Republican Party, the midterms, they're now in play. And I'm taking
00:05:34.160 a look at these prediction markets and they're not factoring in this news. I actually believe
00:05:38.240 right now, right now, there's a strong probability Republicans win for one simple reason that all of
00:05:44.580 these red states in the South can redistrict based on this ruling. Let's just call it the
00:05:50.780 gates of hell being unleashed, my friends. You may be in favor of it. That's fine. But let's break
00:05:56.540 down the news. Before we do, of course, you guys got to go to TimCast.com. Join now. Get in that
00:06:02.400 Discord community. It's not what you know, it's who you know. You want to start a project? You need
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00:06:11.520 they want to be your friends. In fact, some people actually got married. They met at the Discord and
00:06:16.300 they married each other. So congratulations. And they're having babies, which is awesome. I can't
00:06:20.640 guarantee that because we're not a dating service. But hey, birds of a feather flock together. Join,
00:06:25.200 support the work we do, get involved, and you can find love. Not guaranteed, of course. I think
00:06:30.700 those people are just lucky. But you support the work we do, and we greatly appreciate you guys
00:06:35.660 being in our Discord server. Here's the news from The Guardian. U.S. Supreme Court rules
00:06:40.460 Louisiana must redraw its congressional map in landmark case. Now, already, this is a major boon
00:06:47.140 for Republicans. Let me show you this right here. Greg Price says, Louisiana v. Calais did not
00:06:53.720 strike down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act entirely. It ruled that it's unconstitutional
00:06:58.700 to draw majority black congressional districts that look like this one on the sole basis of race.
00:07:05.780 In fact, there are two here, the sixth district and the second. But let me just say how psychotic 0.88
00:07:11.460 this district is. Seriously, in order for them to have a race-based congressional district, 0.94
00:07:19.900 they had to draw it in this very strange way. Now, I say shenanigans. I agree that should not
00:07:26.240 be allowed. In this from SCOTUS wire in a six to three vote, the Supreme Court strikes down
00:07:31.260 Louisiana's new congressional map that added a second majority black district holding that it
00:07:37.060 constitutes a racial gerrymander. The court narrows its previous interpretation of the
00:07:42.560 Voting Rights Act. This is massive. Alito delivered the opinion to the court. Thomas concurs. Kagan
00:07:48.360 dissents. They say in today's Voting Rights Act ruling, the Supreme Court has fundamentally
00:07:54.300 reshaped how courts apply Section 2 to voting maps, especially in relation to politics,
00:07:59.100 making future Section 2 lawsuits extremely difficult to win.
00:08:04.220 It's massive news, my friends. Will Chamberlain lays it down, saying this is the key passage in
00:08:09.880 Louisiana v. Calais. While not overturning Section 2 of the VRA, it construes it into
00:08:15.980 near irrelevance. All minority voters are entitled to is that the map drawers not use 0.99
00:08:22.860 race as a metric in drawing their maps. No more majority minority districts. I think that makes 1.00
00:08:28.500 sense. You cannot make a gerrymander to exclude a racial group. You also can't make, well, I mean,
00:08:37.220 that's just basically it. Therefore, if you gerrymander to create a majority black district, 1.00
00:08:41.260 that's unconstitutional, as it should be and should have always been. 1.00
00:08:48.000 The opinion says, if a districting map is produced by computer, as is generally the
00:08:53.980 case today, we may think of all the parameters in the algorithm that the mapmaker uses.
00:08:59.080 One necessary parameter would be the number of districts required by law, and another
00:09:03.500 would have to be a range of inter-district population variations that is small enough
00:09:08.720 to comply with the one-person, one-vote requirement.
00:09:11.260 The algorithm might then go on to lay out a map, lay out and assign priorities to whatever
00:09:16.820 additional permissible criteria the legislature chooses to use.
00:09:19.900 For example, the legislature might want to minimize changes in the prior map, avoid districts
00:09:24.240 with discontiguous territory, and avoid splitting counties or municipalities.
00:09:29.840 It might impose a certain standard of compactness, aim to protect some or all incumbents, or
00:09:35.220 promote the prospects of a particular political party.
00:09:37.800 When this algorithm is used, the map it produces may place a particular voter or group of voters in a district in which a majority generally agrees, generally disagrees, or only sometimes agrees with their voting preferences.
00:09:52.080 But in any event, the opportunity of these members of the electorate to contribute their votes to a winning cause is whatever opportunity results from the application of the state's combination of permissible criteria.
00:10:02.700 That is what a randomly selected individual voter and group of voters can expect
00:10:07.440 regarding their opportunity to elect a preferred candidate. 0.95
00:10:11.120 And under Section 2, a minority voter is entitled to nothing less and nothing more. 0.96
00:10:16.900 Just that one sentence. 0.91
00:10:19.160 Just because of your racial breakdown, you do not get special treatment. 0.97
00:10:23.580 It is on.
00:10:26.920 The floodgates are open, my friends.
00:10:28.920 Eric Daugherty saying breaking the Supreme Court just struck down the gerrymandered Voting Rights Act race based district in Louisiana.
00:10:35.680 Redraw now. Go full red.
00:10:38.960 This is redistricting war mode in the South. 0.98
00:10:42.040 Everyone must get rid of their race based seats. 0.88
00:10:45.100 Go aggressive. 0.95
00:10:46.200 The interesting thing here is by not striking down Section 2.
00:10:51.220 Here's what it basically means.
00:10:53.280 The argument before was that Section 2 meant you had to give these minorities their own district.
00:11:00.400 Now they're saying, no, no, Section 2 is still there.
00:11:03.660 The protection for minorities is still there.
00:11:05.600 You can't erase a racial group.
00:11:08.980 What does that mean?
00:11:10.320 Creating a district based on race would exclude any other races. 0.57
00:11:13.720 If you create a majority black district, you're excluding white voters. 0.60
00:11:16.660 You can't use race as the factor for what you're doing this.
00:11:19.820 You can do it for a variety of reasons. 0.86
00:11:21.220 to pregnant incumbents, as they said, maybe because you want to make it more compact. 0.94
00:11:25.100 All of those things make sense.
00:11:26.840 This means, technically speaking, outside of Louisiana, these other states should now
00:11:34.160 legally be required to and likely will be forced to.
00:11:37.820 This is a nuclear bomb.
00:11:38.900 Guys, I need to say it.
00:11:40.260 This is a nuclear bomb, and I'm going to tell you why.
00:11:42.340 We will likely now see lawsuits erupt across all of these states, forcing them to redistrict.
00:11:51.220 Because of the way this ruling was handed down, it is not that Mississippi might then go, well, perhaps we should redistrict if the ruling is as such.
00:12:01.740 Nope.
00:12:02.760 What's going to happen is there's going to immediately be lawsuits in these states filed by hundreds of parties arguing that race-based gerrymandering is illegal, is unconstitutional.
00:12:15.120 And thus, when it goes to the courts and they instantly cite the Supreme Court, lower courts can have no argument.
00:12:23.500 It's been decided, in which case the states could actually just say, nope, we're not fighting it.
00:12:30.240 We agree. The Supreme Court has laid this down.
00:12:33.160 The attorneys general of these states, when faced with these lawsuits, may just say, based on our opinion from the Supreme Court ruling,
00:12:41.120 the merit in this is unquestionable, and we therefore accept terms and move towards remedy,
00:12:47.640 in which case, if they so choose, it will be a finger snap. These states will then say,
00:12:55.660 we apologize, but we have no choice. The Supreme Court issued the ruling, and these racial
00:13:01.740 gerrymandered districts cannot be allowed to persist. Thus, we have no choice but to right now
00:13:06.900 redistrict on the fly. And I'm going to tell you why I'm in favor of this, because I know there's
00:13:11.940 going to be a bunch of libs being like, Tim, you're complaining about Virginia the whole time.
00:13:14.860 Well, I'm not a big fan of redistricting, mid-decade redistricting. I'm not a big fan
00:13:19.140 of it. I'm not a big fan of gerrymandering. However, what we are looking at right now is,
00:13:24.320 as Kim Jeffries said, total warfare, total warfare. On principle, I would say there should
00:13:30.980 have never been race based districts that I am happy with. The fact that they said no more of
00:13:38.240 this, but I will agree the idea that mid decade we're doing all this redistricting, I think is
00:13:43.200 a very, very bad thing. But who am I? Honest question, because as much as I have tried to
00:13:49.640 maintain a structure of principle, we are beset on all sides by evil, by vile, narcissistic and
00:13:58.520 selfish behavior. And if Hakeem Jeffries says, quote, I don't give a damn. Well, my friends, 0.58
00:14:07.720 there's a man outside my house pointing a gun at me. I can sit here and maintain my principles
00:14:12.600 all day saying I do not want violence. I do not want to shoot anybody. But when we ask this man,
00:14:19.420 please put your gun down. And he says, no, it's time for maximum warfare. I don't give a damn.
00:14:25.960 You know, I got to be honest. I want to be careful in how they say this, but if someone
00:14:31.360 pointed a weapon at you and said maximum warfare, pulled the hammer back.
00:14:39.340 I mean, that's clear cut self-defense at that point. So again, I'm not going to absolve Texas
00:14:44.980 of their responsibility. They make their arguments for why they're redistricting. Virginia is doing
00:14:48.700 a direct response to Texas. But there's a lot of arguments people are going to make. I'm just
00:14:52.880 going to say this. The war has started. And if Democrats want to pull the shenanigans they did
00:14:58.300 in Virginia, which directly affects me, maybe indirectly affects me because I don't live in
00:15:04.040 Virginia, but I'm literally three minutes away. But we have staff who do live in these districts.
00:15:10.280 Well, that pisses me off and they're lying about it. Now we've got an interesting conundrum.
00:15:17.260 The guys of, let's call it, officiality, I suppose.
00:15:24.680 These Republican states have to redistrict now.
00:15:27.540 It's not a question of choice.
00:15:29.640 Supreme Court issued their mandate, right?
00:15:32.420 The ruling is clear.
00:15:34.140 Here's Hakeem Jeffries.
00:15:35.680 House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Monday fiercely defended his use of the phrase
00:15:40.560 maximum warfare.
00:15:42.340 After Virginia's narrowly voted last week to approve a new map that would give Democrats
00:15:45.540 a 10 to 1 majority. He said, we are in an era of maximum warfare everywhere all the time.
00:15:51.140 Okay. As it relates to the comment related to maximum warfare, he says, I stand by it.
00:15:58.500 So-called criticism from these phony Republicans you can continue to criticize me for. I don't
00:16:02.040 give a damn about the criticism. Get lost. Guys, I think it's patently obvious where all of this 0.81
00:16:07.720 is going. It's. This is 12 seats. Virginia's the Supreme Court of Virginia struck down a temporary
00:16:16.520 state. They have not yet ruled in the merits. Many have argued, of course, Virginia is going
00:16:21.040 to rule in favor of the gerrymander. It's going to happen. Maybe we'll see if Virginia loses
00:16:25.380 and these southern states change. It is going to be like a 20 point pro Republican swing in the
00:16:31.920 House. That will be insane. And the best part, they still won't get anything done. So good luck,
00:16:41.160 my friends. Let's take a look. Let me show you some stuff. Mark Elias, prominent Democrat legal
00:16:47.580 dude, says today's VRA decision is intellectually dishonest and wrong. The conservatives basically
00:16:52.480 said black people can vote for their preferred candidates as long as they prefer the right
00:16:55.840 candidates, which will be Republicans, an absolute mockery of the law and staying on the court.
00:17:01.340 That's actually not at all what they said.
00:17:03.380 They said, you can't draw a map to exclude certain races.
00:17:06.740 That's it.
00:17:07.280 Bye.
00:17:08.220 If there is a minority population, the color of their skin is immaterial to political arguments. 0.80
00:17:12.920 The idea that we must give special access politically because a group of people have 1.00
00:17:17.780 a different color skin is the stupidest thing I've ever heard of in my life. 0.99
00:17:20.680 Sorry. 1.00
00:17:21.520 I throw it to affirmative action. 0.98
00:17:23.480 Democrats love it. 0.61
00:17:24.640 And I said to these people, OK, that little Asian kid, right?
00:17:29.740 He's from Detroit.
00:17:31.400 Family's not wealthy.
00:17:32.780 I want you to be the one to go to him, eight years old, and say, you can't go to Harvard
00:17:37.280 because you look too much like those people.
00:17:40.780 That's it.
00:17:42.360 Literally based on what you look like is the pretext they entertained for excluding people
00:17:48.980 from schools.
00:17:50.240 When I was a kid, I was told, because I'm part Asian, to lie.
00:17:55.500 They're never going to test you for your genetics.
00:17:57.520 So if they ask you, say you're Hispanic, Latino, you can get away with it. 0.96
00:18:02.820 Why? 0.92
00:18:03.980 Asians can be legally discriminated against. 1.00
00:18:06.600 And it's true. 1.00
00:18:07.760 It's true.
00:18:09.040 And I asked why.
00:18:11.200 And my pops told me it's like they don't have strong advocacy groups because they're too
00:18:14.280 small a minority. 1.00
00:18:15.200 And that's that's true.
00:18:17.640 Hispanic voters have strong political advocacy groups because they make up a large voter
00:18:21.480 block. 1.00
00:18:22.000 Asians, not so much.
00:18:23.420 So what do we get in the law?
00:18:25.120 They discriminate against Asians in comedy. 0.78
00:18:27.520 They mock and belittle Asians. 0.96
00:18:29.140 Always do. 0.65
00:18:30.580 Now, I'll be fair.
00:18:31.780 I don't care about comedians making fun of Asians. 1.00
00:18:33.600 Please do so. 1.00
00:18:34.260 I'm only a quarter Asian.
00:18:35.280 It's not that big a deal to me. 1.00
00:18:36.580 I'm sure a lot of Asians are offended, but, you know, they can shove off.
00:18:39.280 You're allowed to make fun of people and have fun.
00:18:40.560 But the idea that I can be discriminated against, I would be rejected from a job or a school because of my race, that's Democrats doing that.
00:18:48.480 I want to stress this.
00:18:49.840 When I said I want to go to school, Democrats said no because of your race.
00:18:55.780 Not Republicans.
00:18:56.280 not Republicans. I reject that. These people are racists. They are vile racists. They want
00:19:04.520 to segregate us based on race. And that presents a very, very difficult problem for people like me
00:19:08.820 because I'm mixed race. And they told me to do what these scumbags tell me to do. Pick one. 0.99
00:19:15.540 No, I'm not going to do that. I am equally proud of my white European heritage as I am of my Korean
00:19:21.760 and a little bit Japanese heritage as well. I am proud of all of it. It is amazing what we have
00:19:28.100 done as human beings in this world. And you will not tell me that I have to lie now. And that's
00:19:33.540 Democrats and that's not Republicans. But let me show you the war. This is Illinois. I've shown
00:19:39.520 this map a million times, but I have to show it again because it's where I'm from. Take a look
00:19:43.220 at the 17th. Rockford stretches all the way down here and wraps around to try and get Bloomington
00:19:47.620 Peoria. Why? Otherwise, you would not have a Democrat district. Take a look at the 13th,
00:19:52.400 connecting East St. Louis to Springfield and Champaign-Urbana, because otherwise it would be
00:19:58.480 Republican. Now I show you the Northeast. Oh, wow. Hey, look at that. You got in Maine,
00:20:06.900 one Republican district, one blue. That's fine, right? In all of New England, it's all blue.
00:20:13.020 Really?
00:20:14.360 It's all blue.
00:20:16.020 Massachusetts dark blue across the board.
00:20:18.100 Not a single Republican there, I guess.
00:20:20.140 Not a single, but oh, 36% of Massachusetts voted Republican.
00:20:25.460 They have no representation.
00:20:27.900 Now, I understand.
00:20:29.120 One might argue, Tim, it's all deep blue.
00:20:31.980 The Republicans make up a third, but they're spread out evenly among all these districts.
00:20:36.340 Perhaps.
00:20:37.560 Should it be then that they structure the maps?
00:20:41.040 Let me pull up the Massachusetts congressional map.
00:20:45.460 We'll pull this one up from Wikipedia there, and we'll pull it in.
00:20:51.580 How about this?
00:20:53.620 How about you don't wrap up all this and create these chunks like that, right?
00:20:58.780 Why doesn't Massachusetts have a weird thin strip connecting the rural areas like Illinois does?
00:21:04.620 That's my point.
00:21:05.160 I got no problem when people point out that Massachusetts is overwhelmingly Democrat.
00:21:13.020 And while it does have a third Republicans, they're spattered all over the place so they don't form a big, strong block.
00:21:18.660 Right. If you were to take like Framingham and connect it to these and make the same district that you got with a 13th in Illinois, you'd create a Republican district.
00:21:27.740 But they do it intentionally. It is one big game and they're going to act like it's only Republicans.
00:21:35.160 that are playing this game. Okay. Well, look, I'll be honest, which is, okay.
00:21:41.120 Texas decided to redistrict mid-decade. The war began. The argument is, from Hakeem Jeffries,
00:21:47.480 maximum warfare. That's what we're dealing with. Okay. If the Republicans do nothing, they lose.
00:21:54.380 Democrats will pack the court, make Puerto Rico and D.C. states. It will be insane. D.C.,
00:21:59.080 probably not. There's a lot of stuff. Constitutional amendment, probably. It'll
00:22:02.380 be really weird, but Puerto Rico, maybe Guam. Take a look at this. Here's the original map.
00:22:08.260 So we here at Timcast are about right here above 10 and 6. So we can drive into any one of these
00:22:14.240 counties in like a minute. We go to Winchester quite a bit, which is right here in the 6th.
00:22:20.020 And you can see it's red. And so we like going there. Everybody's a fan. I don't got to go in
00:22:26.440 some blue whack-a-loon district. Here's the new map. 10, 11, 7, 1, and 8 all connect to Fairfax
00:22:34.940 County, a hyper-concentration of far-left NGOs, lawyers, and liberal whack-a-loons.
00:22:41.780 Look at this. The 8th and the 11th make up Fairfax, and then you have a debate in these other areas.
00:22:51.680 Dense Democrat districts, dense Republican districts actually consider to be a very fair
00:22:54.920 map. Not anymore. Now there's only one district for Republicans. My point is this. I accept that
00:23:02.500 you don't like what Texas did. I accept that Texas, there's an argument to be made, they should
00:23:07.660 not have redistricted mid-decade. Agreed. What Texas does has no bearing on whether or not you
00:23:13.780 should strip the voices of people in Virginia. You may not like what Texas did, but saying you
00:23:19.720 will remove the right of Republicans. Half the state of Virginia is Republican. You would remove
00:23:24.820 their right to speech is fascistic. Thank you. And have a nice day. Say the same thing, Texas,
00:23:30.100 by all means. They're all fascists. That's fine. But you are, too. So if you want maximum warfare, 0.99
00:23:33.840 you get it. Now, here's where it gets funny. First, I'll just point out this.
00:23:38.800 The prediction markets have not adapted to this. This is a landmark ruling. And right now,
00:23:44.760 Republicans have jumped for control of the House and Senate by one point.
00:23:49.220 Now, look, I'm not telling you what to do in terms of betting markets.
00:23:51.480 I'm just saying a landmark ruling, which would require all of these states to redistrict,
00:24:00.240 not an argument they might would require them to.
00:24:05.480 Republicans are going to have way more red districts. 0.96
00:24:09.200 That's just it.
00:24:10.080 Good luck. 0.91
00:24:10.780 So I'm actually surprised that Kalshi hasn't adapted to this.
00:24:16.260 You know, we've got Republican House and Republican Senate only went up by a single point since this ruling.
00:24:22.160 And Democrat House, Republican Senate only went down a little bit.
00:24:25.960 I'm actually really, really surprised by that because the expectation is.
00:24:31.180 With this change, if the southern states redistrict adding 12, removing 12 from Democrats, adding 12 Republicans,
00:24:37.800 It's a 24-seat swing. Democrats lose 12, Republicans gain 12. It's not like you got
00:24:49.040 Democrats-Republicans and Republicans go up 12. Nope. Democrats got to lose 12, Republicans got
00:24:53.360 to go up 12, creating a 24-seat gap. Massive. And when you factor in this news, which is probably
00:25:00.720 copium, Harvard Harris, Harris X, did a poll and found that in the generic congressional ballot,
00:25:08.180 Democrats and Republicans are now tied. I don't believe it. It's a single poll,
00:25:14.400 and the markets didn't react to it. However, Decision Desk says Democrats are still underdogs
00:25:21.860 in the Senate. I mean, this is actually pretty wild, if you ask me. Let's jump to 270 to win
00:25:27.420 to go to the Senate map and take a look where we are. Democrats are underdogs. There's four toss-ups 0.73
00:25:34.260 and 50 Republican guarantees, meaning with J.D. Vance, even if they lose every toss-up state,
00:25:41.000 they still have the Senate. I don't see how Democrats can win. When we jump to the House
00:25:45.740 interactive map, it's interesting. Democrats have an advantage right now, 215 to 202, but 18 toss-ups.
00:25:54.140 If Republicans lose every toss up, it is bad. Democrats have a massive majority in the House.
00:26:02.620 However, let's go down to Virginia. I love this. They've looks like they've changed Virginia.
00:26:09.680 Actually, did they actually change it? They did. Currently, the map 270 to win is using is the new
00:26:17.140 map which has been barred by the courts so far. You can see it's got five districts in one area,
00:26:26.020 and there's the lobster. So let's fix this. Let's assume this is, can we change this actually? Is
00:26:31.780 there a way to change it back to the old map? It's very weird that they changed the map considering.
00:26:36.400 So here's what we're going to do for Virginia. There should be five red and six blue. So we're
00:26:41.620 going to change some to red to get the current makeup. It doesn't necessarily matter which ones
00:26:46.400 we choose. There's three. And let's do, let's make this so wild. So we've got one, two, three,
00:26:54.600 four, five. Here's the current, it's not one for one, obviously. Right now, if you don't allow the
00:27:02.360 change in Virginia, what do you get? 206 Republican, 211 Democrat. And now you've got 18 toss-ups,
00:27:11.240 only slightly favoring Democrats. We're going to eliminate this district, these two here,
00:27:15.880 of these gerrymandered districts in Louisiana because of the Supreme Court ruling, turning it
00:27:20.240 pure red, and now it's a dead heat. Based on the current legal standing we have right now
00:27:26.720 with Louisiana and with Virginia, it's 209 Democrat to 208 Republican, creating a pure toss-up.
00:27:36.380 With the latest poll from Harvard Harris X, we have no idea who's going to win.
00:27:41.880 Back during the previous polls, Trump unfavorability, things like that.
00:27:45.620 I'm still betting on Democrats to take this one.
00:27:48.460 But let's play this game.
00:27:50.300 Let's say we go the way that new map is going to go.
00:27:54.120 And we eliminate the gerrymandered racial districts in other states, which is basically all of them.
00:28:00.880 To be fair, there should be at least one that's blue in these areas.
00:28:05.460 So we eliminate all of these. All of these that are, holy crap. I mean, now it's 204-213. Let's jump to this. Florida's going to have, looks like, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Georgia's going to have 1, 2, 3, 4. North Carolina's going to have 3. 0.99
00:28:24.440 wow i mean this is a fundamental shift let's let's go down florida should have five districts
00:28:32.200 again it's not going to be one one two three four fives we're going to eliminate some of these
00:28:37.600 so that it fits with the uh new maps so we've got one two three four five in virginia this is one
00:28:44.680 one district right okay so you've got five in virginia then we'll move up to uh north carolina
00:28:50.060 which should have three it does four which we see here and one which we see here okay
00:28:56.180 so based on the newly drawn maps after the ruling from supreme court it's 202 democrat to 215
00:29:03.180 republican let me just say wow that's if they do it as of right now but now again let me be wrong
00:29:11.620 virginia may actually end up winning this one in which case we're gonna have to eliminate
00:29:18.540 all of these. Oh, I'm sorry. There was a toss up there. That's not right.
00:29:23.220 Let's eliminate these red districts in Virginia. And then it's 205 to 213 still. 0.96
00:29:29.700 Oh, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. There should be one less Republican in that two less. Way off,
00:29:34.220 way off. There you go. That's the proper Virginia mat. 207 to 211, giving Republicans a slight edge.
00:29:41.580 It's a toss up, ladies and gentlemen. Right now, if the South does say, well, the Supreme Court
00:29:47.640 ruled they got to change these maps and they eliminate most, it's going to be a toss up for
00:29:53.100 Republicans. It's going to be leaning heavily for Republicans. Let's just reset it. And again,
00:30:00.040 we got to eliminate Virginia just for argument. So there's one, two, three, four and five red
00:30:07.480 in Virginia, which there should be. And then the current ruling, which eliminates these two from
00:30:12.620 Louisiana, we are looking at 210 to 208. Still a toss up. I think with the polling,
00:30:21.800 it's looking good for Democrats. But again, it's going to be maximum warfare.
00:30:28.700 Let me know what you think, my friends. The markets have not updated themselves. Let's
00:30:33.180 go to the Senate here. And again, just the Senate's already in the Republican advantage.
00:30:38.560 Let me know what you think. Comment below, smash the like button, share the show and all that good
00:30:41.280 stuff. You can follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast. We're back tonight at 8 p.m. for TimCast
00:30:46.600 IRL. You don't want to miss it. Alex Stein will be joining us to complain, as he does, and, you
00:30:52.340 know, make jokes. We're going to have a good time. Thanks for hanging out, my friends. Stay tuned.
00:30:55.640 More to come, and we'll see you all tonight at 8 p.m.
00:31:11.280 You