The Culture War - Tim Pool - May 04, 2026


THIS IS THE END FOR DEMOCRATS


Episode Stats


Length

32 minutes

Words per minute

173.94977

Word count

5,630

Sentence count

499

Harmful content

Misogyny

10

sentences flagged

Toxicity

11

sentences flagged

Hate speech

21

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Sen. John Fetterman has a chance to join the Republican Party, but what would he do if he did? Is he a good fit in the new Republican Party? And what would that mean for the rest of the midterms?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:54.520 We're now facing the very real possibility that Democrat Senator John Fetterman may quit
00:01:05.980 the Democratic Party and join the Republicans. There has been a strong and pronounced effort
00:01:12.620 among Republicans to get Fetterman to quit. Well, because he doesn't really line up with
00:01:18.520 their public perception. That is, he may vote largely with Democrats, but everything he says
00:01:24.780 Everything people look at in him represents a moderate Republican and not a Democrat.
00:01:29.800 And for this, we have seen a favorability swing into the negative with 108 points for Fetterman.
00:01:38.820 That is, he might actually just lose his Senate seat or he will have to become an independent or Republican because the Democrats absolutely despise him.
00:01:52.560 Now, we've never seen anything like it.
00:01:53.700 A negative drop of this magnitude we have not seen before with a candidate who then succeeds.
00:02:01.860 In fact, with many other prominent Democrats who've quit the party, they actually had higher favorability than John Fetterman does.
00:02:08.700 Now, why does this matter?
00:02:09.780 Well, right now in the prediction markets, it is expected that Democrats will sweep.
00:02:16.060 With Call Street having it at around 44% that Democrats will win the House and the Senate.
00:02:22.260 Now, I'm just going to say this. First, if Fetterman flips or goes independent,
00:02:27.800 depending on who he coxes with, either way, he doesn't really represent the Democratic Party.
00:02:32.060 So they're already hurting based on where he stands. If he were to join the Republicans,
00:02:36.820 and the Republicans are going to maintain a very strong majority in the Senate. But I'm going to
00:02:40.860 throw this into the mix. Guys, I do not understand how the prediction markets are currently calculating
00:02:47.200 a Democrat sweep, considering the DOJ just announced they will be mandating redistricting
00:02:54.340 in states they believe have racially gerrymandered. This means the DOJ could theoretically go to
00:02:59.820 Illinois and say, you can't have these districts and force them to change. Not that I think
00:03:06.600 they're going to make moves that will help Democrats or force Democrats in blue states,
00:03:10.460 but this unlocks the door for all of these red states with VRA districts to redistrict,
00:03:16.360 And this will give Republicans 12 new seats while taking 12 from the Democrats.
00:03:22.660 I'm sorry, the prediction markets make no sense.
00:03:25.280 With this Fetterman news, Donald Trump is offering him a massive fundraising package
00:03:29.480 as well as a full-throated endorsement.
00:03:32.700 The Fetterman says he won't do it, but I don't think the story ends here.
00:03:37.520 The dude's polling is so apocalyptically bad, he has no choice.
00:03:44.480 But we'll see.
00:03:45.100 In the meantime, Republicans are gearing for a win in the midterms because of SCOTUS alone.
00:03:51.680 Not to mention, when you look at Democrat Party favorability, it's worse than the Republicans.
00:03:57.420 Donald Trump's approval rating is low, and Trump is the principal motivator.
00:04:01.780 Still, I think people who don't like Trump are more likely to be the people that would vote for a congressional candidate they know.
00:04:08.980 and the people who stand by Trump are the people who will never leave him and are motivated to go
00:04:13.860 out and vote in the midterms because of Trump. What I mean is, if you get a Republican coming
00:04:19.000 out to his congressional district saying, vote for me, the people who don't like Trump were
00:04:23.200 already the people who were motivated to vote based on the actual candidate, whereas Trump's
00:04:29.720 hardcore base don't care. They're going to vote if Trump tells them to go vote. My friends,
00:04:36.060 I actually think right now, while the Democrats do have the probability to win, I do think that's
00:04:42.180 the case. I don't think it's the probability to sweep. And I do believe there is a slim chance
00:04:47.040 Republicans take the whole thing, especially with this story from Politico. Let's jump into the
00:04:52.980 latest political breakdown, prediction markets and polls. Before we do, head over to TimCast.com
00:04:58.980 and click join us to get in our members-only Discord community.
00:05:04.960 Tens of thousands of people hanging out every day.
00:05:07.440 It's not what you know, it's who you know.
00:05:09.560 You want to start a project, start a business,
00:05:11.300 or maybe help someone else do the same?
00:05:14.020 You need community.
00:05:15.900 More importantly, you will meet like-minded individuals.
00:05:18.500 Not on everything.
00:05:19.260 Maybe you'll debate, you'll argue, you'll make new friends,
00:05:21.280 you play video games, you play some games online.
00:05:24.100 And, I kid you not, several people have gotten married
00:05:27.660 having met each other in the Discord. Yes, that's right. Men and women. You'd be surprised.
00:05:32.480 Now, I can't guarantee it, but support the work that we do as a member. You make all of this
00:05:36.320 possible and you get to join that community. Let's read the news from Politico first before
00:05:41.100 we get into the hard data. Politico reporting as the Pennsylvania Democrat increasingly is
00:05:45.740 isolated within his own party. Republicans are quietly trying to win him over.
00:05:50.920 They say it's a few days after the election in November and the results have become clear.
00:05:55.940 Democrats have netted the four seats they need to claim a Senate majority. I think they're speaking
00:06:00.400 hypothetically, right? But then there's a disturbance in the force. Senate Republicans
00:06:05.220 and President Donald Trump persuade Fetterman to switch parties or at least become an independent
00:06:09.960 to ensure Republicans retain power in the chamber. It's a scenario that's becoming less fantastical
00:06:14.820 by the day. The political environment is curdling for Republicans and the quiet campaign to lure
00:06:19.360 Fetterman across the aisle is underway. Trump has made the sell, offering his patented total
00:06:24.460 and complete endorsement, plus a financial windfall to the Pennsylvanian. A handful of
00:06:29.140 Senate Republicans are also gently feeling out Fetterman and responding to his concerns
00:06:34.100 over the prospect of defecting from the Democrat Party. Multiple high level GOP officials tell me
00:06:41.280 if Fetterman does flip, according to officials who were given anonymity to talk about sensitive
00:06:45.340 matters, it will be thanks in large part to his deepening friendship with a pair of senators and
00:06:50.040 their high profile spouses, Senator Dave McCormick of PA and his wife, Dina, and Senator Katie Britt
00:06:57.460 of Alaska and her husband, Wesley. Now, let's take a look over at Pennsylvania. Currently, 0.90
00:07:01.720 Fetterman is not up for reelection anyway. If he were to flip the number here, 46 to 50 in the 270
00:07:09.900 to win map would become 45 to 51, guaranteeing even if Alaska were to flip Democrat with J.D.
00:07:19.220 Vance's VP, Republicans hold the Senate. Now, Fetterman has said, no, I'm not going to leave.
00:07:24.840 I'm a Democrat. But Democrats don't think so. Take a look at this from CNN's. This is John
00:07:33.520 Fetterman had a total of 108 point drop. This is Harry Enten. And he he lays it out.
00:07:39.180 Part of a larger story, Mr. Berman, I would just say that John Fetterman is doing as well
00:07:44.020 with Pennsylvania Democrats as the New York Giants are as like in the state of Pennsylvania,
00:07:48.380 or the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
00:07:49.700 I mean, just look at this.
00:07:51.200 Among Pennsylvania Democrats,
00:07:52.800 the net approval of Fetterman,
00:07:53.920 back in 2023, he was a Democrat liberal darling.
00:07:57.180 He was at plus 68 points.
00:07:59.100 Look at how low he has fallen down
00:08:01.500 to negative 40 points.
00:08:03.600 He's down there with the Titanic
00:08:05.380 among Democrats in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
00:08:09.700 And, you know, to put a comparison point on it,
00:08:11.240 you know, we always talk about how Chuck Schumer
00:08:12.520 is not well-liked by the Democratic base nationwide.
00:08:15.000 Chuck Schumer has a net popularity rating
00:08:17.140 of about minus two points.
00:08:18.700 He is 38 points more popular
00:08:20.640 than John Fetterman is
00:08:21.980 with Pennsylvania Democrats.
00:08:23.220 And I was also looking
00:08:24.040 at Kyrsten Sinema,
00:08:25.020 who, of course, ended up
00:08:25.980 leaving the Democratic Party
00:08:27.160 in Arizona.
00:08:28.180 She was considerably 0.98
00:08:29.000 more popular
00:08:29.640 just before she shifted over
00:08:31.060 than John Fetterman
00:08:31.980 is at minus 40 points.
00:08:33.020 Is this a 108-point swing?
00:08:34.400 This is a 108-point swing.
00:08:38.280 Very good mathematics here.
00:08:40.500 I was honestly thinking,
00:08:42.140 is that even possible?
00:08:42.860 All right, how does this compare
00:08:44.040 to other key faces of primary?
00:08:45.900 If he wants to run again,
00:08:46.740 You know, he faces an election in two years.
00:08:48.600 He runs in a Democratic primary.
00:08:50.320 How have senators who lost their primaries, how does their whole situation compare to this?
00:08:55.900 I would just know John was like off on the screen going, what, what?
00:08:58.240 Wait a minute.
00:08:58.660 Wait a minute.
00:08:59.280 108 points.
00:09:00.100 You never see anything like that.
00:09:01.480 But my goodness gracious.
00:09:02.560 I mean, just take a look here.
00:09:03.720 OK, 2000 senators own party net ratings about when they lost a primary.
00:09:07.920 Bob Smith plus 15.
00:09:09.220 Arlen Specter plus 13.
00:09:10.620 Of course, he switched parties to Democrats.
00:09:12.220 It didn't work for him from Republican.
00:09:13.540 Plus six, Joe Lieberman.
00:09:14.920 Dick Luger was at zero points.
00:09:16.240 Lisa Murkowski was at minus 15 points.
00:09:18.440 All of these were considerably more popular than John Fetterman is right now at minus 40 points.
00:09:24.360 He is below the lowest, the ones who actually got beat in a primary.
00:09:28.580 There is no historical analog to this.
00:09:31.280 That is how unpopular John Fetterman is with Pennsylvania Democrats.
00:09:35.180 There is basically no doubt in my mind that if Fetterman decides to run for re-election as his Democrat,
00:09:39.520 he will face a primary challenge and will be a very competitive one.
00:09:42.620 Very competitive? Are you nuts? 0.99
00:09:44.320 He will get crushed. Fetterman right now is playing this silly game saying, I'm a Democrat. 1.00
00:09:52.360 Now, his term will end January 3rd, 2029. So he's not up for reelection for a while now,
00:09:59.460 not to the 2028 election. He's good for now. He's got a couple more years where he will be
00:10:05.680 annihilated. So what can he do if he wants to maintain his standing in politics? He's got one
00:10:12.340 choice. That is to switch parties now. Build up your base among Republicans as a moderate or an
00:10:20.640 independent, and you can survive this, John. I like John Fetterman. I think he votes poorly.
00:10:26.220 I do appreciate he pushes back on the wokeness on the left. Fetterman says that Democrats are
00:10:30.520 suffering from what he calls Trump derangement syndrome. Is that a compelling argument to make 0.99
00:10:34.020 among the voters there? No, no. I mean, that is the last thing that Democrats want to hear. I mean,
00:10:39.160 And look at this.
00:10:40.440 Lowest approval among Dems at this point in term two.
00:10:43.540 Donald Trump has just a four-point, four-point approval rating.
00:10:47.460 George W. Bush, who was not well-liked, was at 10%.
00:10:49.940 Richard Nixon was at 11%.
00:10:52.080 Donald Trump is the lowest of the low on this point.
00:10:55.380 The bottom line is this.
00:10:56.880 John Fetterman, when you look, when you look at his net popularity rating at minus 40 points,
00:11:02.900 he's on a completely other planet from Chuck Schumer, who is also unpopular,
00:11:07.260 And he's on a different galaxy entirely from other incumbents who actually lost re-election, far less popular than them.
00:11:13.800 We set it up by talking about his vote to push Mark Wayne Mullen through committee.
00:11:17.520 How likely do the prediction markets think Mark Wayne Mullen is to get confirmed?
00:11:21.720 Yeah, John Fetterman basically was the bow on this, because just take a look here.
00:11:25.820 OK, Chance Mullen's confirmed as DHS secretary, and this is before May of 2026.
00:11:30.500 Look at this, a 98 percent chance, according to the Cal State prediction market.
00:11:33.060 John Fetterman is the big reason why Mark Waymullen is going to get confirmed as DHS secretary.
00:11:39.020 Yep, Democrats don't want him, but it don't matter. It don't matter.
00:11:43.160 Here we go. So this is actually a lie. I want to clarify this.
00:11:46.540 This is a statement that's been going around.
00:11:48.160 John Fetterman says he can't see continue the Democratic Party.
00:11:49.980 This is not correct. Not correct. Fact check, false.
00:11:53.420 Fetterman has repeatedly stated he will remain a Democrat.
00:11:57.880 He will not back down from this.
00:11:59.740 However, my point is clear. Fetterman cannot continue as a Democrat. He will either be
00:12:06.200 removed from office or switch parties. You know, Senator, let's look back to 2022 because you were
00:12:11.460 declared a hero in the Democratic Party for flipping a Republican seat, for holding off a
00:12:16.180 challenge from Mehmet Oz, who is an incredibly well-known and popular television doctor. Now,
00:12:23.160 of course, the head of Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. But now, as you look toward
00:12:27.760 re-election in 2028. You become something of a pariah in the Democratic Party simply because
00:12:33.640 you've been pursuing your own beliefs, even if they're at odds with the Democratic Party from
00:12:38.640 time to time. There's talk of maybe a Democrat is going to primary you in the 2028 election.
00:12:44.540 And I recall back to what Ronald Reagan said. And we talked about this on the phone when you and
00:12:48.880 Sandra and I had a conference call a week ago. Ronald Reagan said, I didn't leave the Democratic
00:12:53.400 Party. The Democratic Party left me. And it seems the same thing is happening with you.
00:12:59.900 Well, yeah, I mean, of course, I mean, the Democrats now like and they want to pander to
00:13:06.600 the extreme parts of the base. And in fact, now you have actual candidates running on F Trump,
00:13:13.840 F Trump, putting it in actually in their commercials and in their kinds of communications.
00:13:19.720 So I know the bill that pays. I know how to pay the bills as a Democrat, you know, right now.
00:13:25.340 And I refuse to engage in that. But now I guarantee you, as it gets closer to November, all the Democrats remember, oh, my gosh, we have to flip seats.
00:13:35.040 And we actually need other votes other than just the extreme part of my party.
00:13:39.160 We're going to remind that. And now as the only single Democrat that's flipped a seat.
00:13:45.280 And now I've also made it mathematically impossible to even to reclaim the majority in the United States Senate.
00:13:52.540 So if they want the Democratic Party to turn it into a witch burning and to go after, you know, the one Democrat that's done the thing that, you know, these people haven't been able to do. 0.54
00:14:02.920 So that's they're entitled to do it. But I'm proud to represent Pennsylvania.
00:14:07.640 And I don't just represent just Democrats in Pennsylvania. I represent all 13 million Pennsylvanians.
00:14:14.620 that I'm going to play it straight. I'm going to never lie or pretend something's wrong. I'm going
00:14:20.520 to just, what's right, I will support. And that's the voice that I'm going to continue to be,
00:14:26.220 regardless what parts of the Democratic might disagree. Okay. So, Senator, can I get your
00:14:31.720 final thoughts on Iran and this economic blockade? It does seem to be crippling Iran's economy.
00:14:38.240 Break them. Yes. Thank you. That's awesome. Break the Iranians. You know, like, 1.00
00:14:44.120 you know like i'm just i'm sorry i'm to the left of john fetterman on way too many issues
00:14:49.860 for him to be a democrat and i mean it from the center square fetterman called a traitor
00:14:57.960 by a swing county democratic party they say in the latest chapter of fetterman's strained
00:15:04.580 relationship let me give the date on this one make sure we have it this is from this is from today
00:15:07.400 john fetterman's strained relationship is on party a key swing county democratic party has
00:15:12.060 called him to be voted out of office. Quote, traitor to Democrats, traitor to Pennsylvanians,
00:15:17.800 traitor to those who worked tirelessly to elect him and stood with him. 51st vote my ass. This 1.00
00:15:22.680 Fox pundit is MAGA. Primary him and vote him out in 2028. Oh, the Monroe Democratic County Party
00:15:29.640 wrote on social media on Sunday. OK, let's play a game. John Fetterman's positions strongly pro
00:15:36.820 choice, supports codifying Roe v. Wade nationally. Let's see. He's a strong supporter advocating
00:15:43.300 equal protections for LGBTQIA individuals. He's an advocate for full nationwide legalization of
00:15:50.360 marijuana. He supports gun control, supports universal coverage as a right for health care,
00:15:56.020 backing Medicare eligibility to 60, supports a $15 minimum wage, protects and expands benefits
00:16:03.060 Pro-immigration overall supports criminal justice reform, redemption, and clemency.
00:16:08.600 Strong outspoken supporter for Israel. 0.93
00:16:12.100 Here's what is absolutely insane. 0.92
00:16:16.100 I'm just going to say it.
00:16:17.640 I disagree with them.
00:16:18.700 Oh, well, you know, I disagree with them on the abortion thing, but I am not pro-life.
00:16:23.460 I am old school pro-choice. 0.50
00:16:25.620 Abortion is bad. 0.87
00:16:26.640 We don't want more of it.
00:16:27.760 We should do something about it culturally.
00:16:29.720 legally presents a problem due to medical issues, but it's a longer debate. So I'll just say
00:16:34.140 I don't agree with most Republicans on an outright ban. But, you know, I had a conversation with
00:16:38.540 Crowder and Glenn Beck and we agreed on compromises that I think are well reasoned. LGBTQ rights,
00:16:44.040 I think, often are not really about rights. I think they're going after kids, so I don't agree 1.00
00:16:48.280 with that. I'm not an advocate for full nationwide legalization of marijuana, but
00:16:55.300 I'm in the middle on it. I think pot's pretty bad. I do, but I don't know that banning it is
00:17:02.560 how you deal with these things. Again, we have cultural problems. But that being said, I don't
00:17:08.540 know if I'm in favor of legalization at this point. Maybe. But there's got to be regulation
00:17:13.360 to it, strong regulation. So actually, I'd probably lean a little bit towards it. I know,
00:17:17.540 a little wishy-washy. My concern is abuse. But again, I don't think you win this one
00:17:22.700 with just outright bans. 1.00
00:17:24.180 It creates black markets.
00:17:25.480 The cartels profit off it. 0.96
00:17:26.760 Let's regulate and control it. 0.83
00:17:28.820 Gun control, nope. 0.97
00:17:30.280 Health care, basic health coverage,
00:17:32.600 I can agree with them.
00:17:33.220 So I disagree with this on a lot of things.
00:17:35.660 The only thing this dude actually is in line
00:17:37.640 with Republicans on is supporting Israel
00:17:40.160 and the war in Iran.
00:17:42.440 And for that, they are trying to determine.
00:17:44.520 The dude is a progressive leftist in every capacity.
00:17:48.080 I don't know how this guy actually joins
00:17:50.220 the Republican Party.
00:17:51.560 Seriously.
00:17:51.900 He votes with Democrats on all the things that are the worst things, except he votes and then he votes.
00:17:58.380 I got to be honest, guys, I like Fetterman, but not politically.
00:18:03.360 Right. He calls out wokeness. 1.00
00:18:06.640 He attacks these socialists. 1.00
00:18:09.460 I respect. I think I have that pulled up, actually.
00:18:11.780 Fetterman says the Democratic Party is turning into he uses an expletive, but it's becoming socialist. 0.90
00:18:18.920 A commie clown show. 0.92
00:18:20.140 I like that. 0.96
00:18:21.220 But I got to be honest.
00:18:22.120 If you look at his voting record, he votes for all of the worst things.
00:18:26.300 Bro, I remember back in the day, people would be like, how do you describe yourself politically,
00:18:31.120 Tim, like 20 years ago?
00:18:31.900 And I'd be like, well, fiscally conservative, but socially liberal.
00:18:35.780 You know, because back in the day, you were like, we shouldn't be overspending.
00:18:39.080 We shouldn't be just dumping money on welfare programs.
00:18:41.540 I do want to help people.
00:18:43.420 But, you know, look, if two blokes want to get married in the privacy of their own home,
00:18:48.580 Now, today, I actually maintain that same thing.
00:18:52.280 We shouldn't be overspending, but the Republicans are overspending, too.
00:18:55.360 And we've gone way beyond two blokes who want to go hang out in a privacy of their own home.
00:18:58.340 They're putting it in schools.
00:18:59.920 The funny thing now is there was this middle ground that everyone was kind of like libertarian on where it's like we're socially liberal, you know, smoke pot, whatever, buy Bitcoin.
00:19:08.440 Just stop spending money and starting wars.
00:19:10.520 You get Fetterman who's like, no, no, let's spend all the money and start wars.
00:19:14.880 I don't know exactly what about Fetterman has made him anything good to anyone, why Trump would want him.
00:19:21.800 But apparently he does. Donald Trump is offering this massive endorsement, total and incomplete endorsement, if he joins the GOP.
00:19:29.640 I find it absolutely hilarious. Well, look, I'm going to say it again.
00:19:33.580 We've got this from Progressive.org. It's time to replace John Fetterman. Why?
00:19:38.700 What did he do? OK, OK, OK, OK. Tell me. Tell me.
00:19:41.480 On March 19th, Fetterman broke with his Democratic colleagues to cast a tie-breaking vote to advance the nomination of Mark Wayne Mullen to replace Christine Noem.
00:19:49.920 So what? Mullen, as was pointed out during his confirmation, had challenged a union leader to a fistfight, and it was based on both of their parts.
00:19:59.880 What? That's your justification?
00:20:03.420 We supported Fetterman in 2022, the group said.
00:20:05.280 I tried to give Fetterman the extreme benefit of the doubt after bucking all Democrats isn't a bad
00:20:10.380 thing, but he's just trying to be, Fetterman says trying to be open-minded. Is that really it?
00:20:15.960 Is that it? That's it. They have a website called Primary Fetterman. Okay, tell me why. Tell me,
00:20:22.100 tell me, tell me why. Fetterman has decided, was a deciding vote for a Republican budget bill that
00:20:27.200 will increase healthcare costs for half a million Pennsylvanians. He supported more of Trump's
00:20:31.200 nominees in any Democratic senator. He consistently skips votes and Senate work. He was the only
00:20:35.940 Democratic vote to let Trump's illegal war in Iran continue. Is that it? Is that it? He voted to cut
00:20:42.800 our health care. OK, well, you know, enabled Donald Trump and skipped work. They really don't
00:20:48.440 have very many strong reasons for wanting to primary. I got to be honest. So we'll see, my
00:20:53.320 friends. What is confusing to me, as I brought this up in my morning segment, is that right now
00:20:59.480 the prediction markets have a Republican House Senate at 20 percent. If Fetterman breaks in the
00:21:04.180 Democrats because he literally has to, otherwise he'll just his career is over. They might even
00:21:08.840 remove him. If he does break, it's a guarantee Republicans win. It's over. Even right now,
00:21:15.020 according to the polls, Republicans are expected to have 50 seats, which gives them J.D. Vance as
00:21:20.240 a tiebreaker. They control the Senate, even if Democrats win every single toss up. Then you've
00:21:26.660 got the redistricting efforts. The DOJ says they're going to go after all of these racially 0.99
00:21:31.320 gerrymandered states. I don't see why 20 percent is the probability for a Republican sweep.
00:21:37.360 I got to be honest. Right now, you've got Democrat sweep stable at 45. Democrat House,
00:21:44.480 Republican Senate has declined and Republican sweep has gone up. If anything, the idea that
00:21:49.880 Democrats win the House and the Senate is ludicrous, but still has the plurality in the prediction
00:21:54.860 markets. That makes literally no sense based on any of the polling data and the political
00:22:02.600 machinations that we are currently witnessing. Now, the question I suppose is, do you really
00:22:08.220 need Fetterman? If Fetterman flips, the Democrats are done. Republicans might actually win Congress
00:22:17.120 through redistricting. That's it. Doesn't matter what Democrats want to do or hope to accomplish
00:22:24.460 or what polls they swing. Republicans could actually just win the House based on the
00:22:30.020 redistricting. Let me show you. Right now, the prediction, Democrats are going to win 216 to 202.
00:22:37.920 This is crazy. Republicans have to win every toss up just to get a teeny majority, just three.
00:22:44.820 Democrats, based on the current polling, doing very well. Again, this is just polling. But if
00:22:51.680 If redistricting happens, let's do this. We're going to eliminate these two red districts in
00:22:56.760 Louisiana. We're going to get rid of this district. To be fair, there's going to be at least one. 0.99
00:23:02.060 And we'll get rid of this red to make that one red to make this one red. If we get the
00:23:06.960 redistricting we expect, then you are going to see it's going to it's going to be a nuke. Well,
00:23:13.100 to be fair, with light redistricting, if Virginia loses as well, Virginia is expected to lose
00:23:20.280 their court battle over the redistricting, which indicates they will have, it's going to be 211
00:23:28.080 Republican based on polls to 207 Democrats, advantage Republicans. That's why I'm surprised
00:23:33.460 people are expecting a Democrat sweep. All of the political machinations indicate Republicans
00:23:38.000 taking this through procedural means. By all means, criticize them for that. That's fine.
00:23:43.000 This is the game that's currently underway. So, okay, I did have this pulled up. This is where
00:23:48.020 Fetterman was like, oh, I'm going to quit. No, no, no, no. It's a fake quote, fact check, not
00:23:51.320 correct. What I will say is the biggest factor affecting Trump and Republicans right now is
00:23:57.440 jet fuel shortages, fuel prices. You get these mega guys coming out being like, in two months,
00:24:03.040 the Arab world's going to be over, that we're going to have cheap gas. That's not happening.
00:24:07.540 No. I believe that the Trump administration is intentionally choking out other parts of the
00:24:12.620 world to force the U.S. as the principal oil exporter. And I think Trump's closed the straight
00:24:17.220 or four moves. I don't think it's Trump personally. I think the machine has closed this trade
00:24:20.300 intentionally to strangle Europe and China. But let's take a look at the polls. Democratic
00:24:26.100 Party favorability is currently minus 22. Republican. What is this? What? Verification
00:24:34.160 required. Let's try this. Republican favorability. OK, we'll slide slide it to the right to secure
00:24:39.040 access. Thanks, RealClearPolitics. There we go. Republican favorability is currently minus 18.
00:24:44.280 Just based off those numbers alone, we're looking at a historic failure for Democrats.
00:24:50.780 Again, I find it absolutely strange the prediction markets are making the predictions they're making.
00:24:57.740 Democrat favorability is historically low right now.
00:25:02.580 They should be up 10 to 15 points historically in the trends.
00:25:06.700 you combine this with Republican redistricting, there is a very good probability Republicans
00:25:14.000 actually win. I'm going to say it again. I do think the current trend is set for Democrats
00:25:19.560 take the House, Republicans take the Senate. I think that's a fair assessment. The prediction
00:25:23.720 markets currently has it at about 30 percent. But the prediction market on call, she believes
00:25:28.680 it's a 45% likelihood Democrats take both. Sorry, with Democrat historic unfavorability,
00:25:37.920 that makes no sense. If you want to argue that Democrats are taking the House, I can believe it.
00:25:43.980 Based on the polling, it could be a toss up. Republicans will need a miracle. But right now,
00:25:48.480 Republicans, by polling, are going to win. You throw Fetterman in the mix, and I think we're
00:25:55.220 looking at Republicans at least getting 50 seats. Not to mention, they always throw the two
00:26:00.020 independents on the Democrat side because we know they're actually Democrats. But that's four toss
00:26:04.860 ups Democrats need to win. They got to win Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Maine.
00:26:11.660 I don't see them winning Maine. I'm sorry. We don't we don't like Maine. Right. And there's
00:26:18.660 a lot of problems with it. But I don't see how they're going to actually win this. Let's pull
00:26:24.480 up main on Ballotopedia right now. So currently, you've got two senators. You've got Susan Collins. 0.94
00:26:29.860 Republicans don't like her, right? And you've got Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats.
00:26:36.060 His next election is until 2030. And I think Susan Collins is the one who's currently up for
00:26:41.460 re-election. I think Susan Collins wins. Now, to be fair, to be fair, Graham Plattner, the Nazi guy,
00:26:48.500 they love the Nazi guy 0.84
00:26:50.820 let's pull up
00:26:51.740 it's currently a toss up
00:26:53.380 that's where they're
00:26:54.260 that's where they're putting it in the polls
00:26:55.220 oh wow
00:26:57.020 but let's take a look at
00:26:58.800 Maine polling
00:27:01.360 Collins Plattner
00:27:04.020 and I think we might be able to get this one on
00:27:06.600 RealClearPolitics
00:27:09.280 get the polling on this one
00:27:10.440 Senate election polls for Maine
00:27:13.220 we're going to drag this one over my friends
00:27:15.600 and see what we're currently looking at
00:27:17.020 we got Georgia what do we got here Louisiana we got Texas we got Michigan show me Maine
00:27:23.500 the latest they actually don't have a Maine going back for a while this is interesting
00:27:27.300 really I find that interesting let's do this Maine Senate polling 2026
00:27:33.960 there we go the New York Times they can they can fill us in Plattner is currently up 35 against
00:27:42.760 Mills. Oh, this is primary. We don't care about the primaries, though. I don't want the primary.
00:27:48.420 I want the general. Can you give me the general? We know it's going to be Collins, but there we go.
00:27:55.540 So if with Mills out of the race, so this echelon insights don't matter.
00:27:58.800 If it's Plattner versus Collins, they're showing Plattner at plus nine. However,
00:28:03.980 oh, wow. Collins versus Mills. Collins wins. They are predicting that Plattner takes this one.
00:28:09.520 Now, that's interesting. You know, I got to be honest. Collins is no good trying to play this
00:28:16.500 middle of the road game. You're not going to get anybody. So they are calling that one blue,
00:28:21.420 despite it being toss up territory. OK, let's let's play it. Let's give every toss up to the
00:28:26.360 Democrats. 50 50. J.D. Vance is senator. It's over. I'm sorry. J.D. Vance as VP is senator tie 0.90
00:28:33.140 break. All Republicans need to do is win one of these seats. So I'm not convinced. I'm not
00:28:41.260 convinced. Republican Party favorability is currently way better. Fetterman is at odds with
00:28:46.560 his own party. It's going to be interesting. Now, what I really love about Plattner is he's a,
00:28:52.380 I'm sorry, I don't say this lightly. I think the dude's a Nazi, like a neo-Nazi. Obviously, 0.96
00:28:58.260 the Nazi party doesn't exist. I think the dude is a white nationalist. I think he is a neo-Nazi.
00:29:03.640 I don't think his worldview has changed. I think that a lot of these neo-Nazi guys,
00:29:10.540 here's what you've got to understand. White nationalism, white supremacy, racial segregation,
00:29:15.660 it's not all the same thing that the left would say. I believe that Graham Plattner
00:29:20.400 wants racial segregation. He wants white people to be separate from black people. 0.93
00:29:25.380 I believe that he supports what the Nazis stood for, and I believe he genuinely is a lefty 0.85
00:29:32.280 economically. You can be an economic leftist, a socialist, and still believe in racial segregation. 0.67
00:29:38.140 In fact, many Democrats do. Here's the distinction. It's all racial identitarianism.
00:29:43.780 The distinction, however, is that Democrats don't like white people and Graham does like white
00:29:47.780 people. If you were a neo-Nazi and you wanted policies that separated black people from white 0.73
00:29:53.400 people, the Democratic Party is where you'd go. You can't come out and just say you're a Nazi, 0.86
00:29:59.180 though. But Homeboy had a Nazi Totenkampff, one of the most egregious tattoos you could get
00:30:04.160 in support of Nazism on his chest for 20 plus years. His story is that he and his buddies were 0.87
00:30:11.480 drunk and went to a tattoo parlor in Croatia and saw cool skull and crossbow on the wall. So we got
00:30:15.180 it. I'm going to stress. Cursory search search shows that Nazi imagery in Croatia has been
00:30:21.720 illegal for decades. So what tattoo parlor did he go to? Were they a Nazi image on the wall? He was
00:30:28.520 like, I want that. The other question I have is, were there other Nazi images on the wall?
00:30:33.140 Certainly if they have a Totenkopf, I'd imagine they'd have other symbols as well that you could
00:30:36.660 choose from. Yeah. I think homeboys, a literal Nazi and Democrats love it. So vote accordingly,
00:30:44.640 I guess. I don't like Susan Collins. What do I care? Maine's cooked. And even if Plattner wins, 1.00
00:30:51.060 it's still a Republican Senate. The bigger issue, I think, is Thune, and the Republicans in the
00:30:56.660 Senate are, it's nothing, nothing's going to happen anyway. The end result will be in the
00:31:01.520 Senate. I don't think it matters. Now you give Fetterman, you flip Fetterman right now,
00:31:09.260 and it's 51-49. Fetterman goes independent? Still, they're going to claim that independent
00:31:15.440 caucus are the Democrats, and he likely will because he's a progressive across the board.
00:31:19.820 We'll see.
00:31:21.940 He can win in PA.
00:31:23.760 There's a reason Democrats hate him. 0.92
00:31:26.020 The problem is, man, the Democratic Party is just getting too nuts.
00:31:32.080 So I'm going to say it again, my friends.
00:31:34.960 There's a strong probability of a Republican sweep.
00:31:37.880 If it goes 50, this will be interesting, by the way.
00:31:41.180 Let me pull up the rules here.
00:31:43.300 They say if all the following occur, outcome verified, it's a combination of markets.
00:31:48.460 all specific outcomes to occur. The question I have is, you'll have to pull the contract for
00:31:52.360 this one. If it's 50-50 with J.D. Vance, does that mean it's a Republican Senate? If that's
00:31:57.860 the case, this idea of a Democrat House and Senate is insane because Republicans have a
00:32:02.360 baked in advantage. A tie goes to the Republicans. So they're expecting to win 51 seats. That's nuts.
00:32:10.440 We'll see, my friends. I'm going to wrap it up there. Smash the like button,
00:32:13.460 share the show with everyone. Thanks for hanging out. Comment below. Follow me on
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