The Culture War - Tim Pool - Trump Declares US WILL INVADE IRAN

00:00:00.000 Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. will invade Iran, seize Karg Island, their oil

00:00:06.040 infrastructure and treat them much like they have Venezuela. And then a few hours later,

00:00:11.600 Donald Trump announced that the strikes planned against Iran are canceled and there will be a

00:00:15.440 signing shortly, which I can only just say is who knows what's really going on. This has to be what

00:00:21.820 like the eighth time Trump has said we're going to strike him. No, we're not psyched. We're going

00:00:25.840 to strike them. My only guess, to be honest, is that there's a bunch of people that have figured 0.98

00:00:32.500 out the pattern and they are shorting, they're buying oil low, shorting it, selling it, and just

00:00:38.520 making massive amounts of money as we constantly hear about negotiations, that escalation of war.

00:00:44.860 So this all starts when an Apache helicopter is reportedly shot down. Trump says they shot down

00:00:48.560 an Apache. We're going to strike them. We hit their water reservoirs. This pisses them off. 1.00

00:00:53.500 it sounds to me in all seriousness, it's a real escalation. I think what actually happened is

00:00:59.300 Trump is negotiating. They're not. Kind of killed all their negotiators. But anyway,

00:01:06.320 and Apache gets shot down. Trump then bombs civilian infrastructure. Seriously bad stuff.

00:01:12.740 Iran then is freaking out. Trump posts, next, we're going to invade and seize their oil.

00:01:18.040 And Iran says, stop, please stop. Now, I have questions. Why is it taking this long?

00:01:25.500 Why didn't Trump just go in and bomb this infrastructure that he was going to anyway?

00:01:29.380 Why did we have to have an Apache shutdown? I think Donald Trump said that we were going to

00:01:34.580 invade Iran to make it public to the American people to show the Iranians it don't matter.

00:01:42.400 They think their strategy has been Trump will lose in the midterms. 0.88

00:01:47.180 He'll be constrained.

00:01:48.020 Then he will lose in 2028 so they can wait him out.

00:01:51.060 I think now it's become patently obvious to anybody with surface level understanding of

00:01:54.940 American politics.

00:01:56.500 Yeah, actually, the Republicans are doing really well for procedural reasons.

00:02:00.280 The Iranians probably got better intelligence than we do against ourselves.

00:02:03.860 I don't mean the government.

00:02:04.860 I mean, the people of the United States, the Iranians probably understand full well what's

00:02:08.500 going to happen in the midterms. 0.96

00:02:09.360 They are planning for it militarily.

00:02:10.540 And I believe they've considered lots in VRNC, which I've talked about.

00:02:14.920 I think they know Trump is going to win this one.

00:02:18.580 But I wonder, maybe I'm wrong about everything because the hardest thing in this is, you

00:02:25.080 know, earlier I was going to essentially live streaming and I said, let's just jump into

00:02:30.060 this.

00:02:30.260 Trump says we're going to invade Iran.

00:02:31.740 And then I said, you know, guys, I want to do a little bit more fact checking and pull

00:02:34.160 up some more research as time goes on.

00:02:36.060 And it's a good thing it did.

00:02:37.100 it's a good thing I didn't do it live because then Trump announces we're not attacking. So I

00:02:42.740 don't know exactly what you can understand from this. I mean, Trump says at some point we will

00:02:50.420 invade. He's canceling strikes tonight. It could be that a statement that we're going to invade

00:02:54.300 still stands. I think the argument, however, that he's going to have some kind of signing

00:02:57.840 and the war. OK, maybe this is him pulling back. Maybe the real reason he's going to invade

00:03:03.080 was to freak them out.

00:03:05.160 This is a yo-yo.

00:03:06.420 And I stopped covering a lot of the,

00:03:08.200 you know, I think I have like two videos

00:03:09.500 like the war is over, we've won.

00:03:11.340 Because initially it was short

00:03:13.080 and Trump was like, we have a deal.

00:03:14.820 The deal will be signed.

00:03:15.800 And then no deal happened.

00:03:17.300 And I'm at the point where I'm just like,

00:03:18.800 okay, guys, we at TimCast,

00:03:22.220 TimCast.com, we have not covered

00:03:23.660 this as a principal story.

00:03:25.180 Because I guarantee you,

00:03:27.100 if I had to put money down

00:03:28.740 at a sports book on war,

00:03:30.700 I'd be willing to bet there is no deal.

00:03:32.700 There is no deal.

00:03:34.440 I'd be willing to bet it's not going to happen.

00:03:36.160 Let's just talk about the news.

00:03:37.780 I'm going to keep this one short, largely because I don't like talking about this because

00:03:42.260 Trump is yo-yoing, okay?

00:03:45.200 I'm pushing this as close to publishing as I can because I know the news is going to

00:03:48.900 change an hour after I put this video up.

00:03:51.160 That's why I can't stand this principal story.

00:03:53.420 But we'll talk about the midterms.

00:03:54.840 We'll talk about what's going on.

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00:04:34.460 Here's the story from the Daily Mail. Trump vows to invade Iran, sparking troops on the ground

00:04:39.460 fears as he reveals plan for the forbidden island. Well, Donald Trump posted this to Truth Social.

00:04:45.580 The United States will be hitting Iran, whose Navy, Air Force, radar, anti-aircraft, and all

00:04:49.900 their forms of defense together, with most of its defensive capability, are gone. Very hard tonight.

00:04:54.520 At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Carg Island and other oil

00:05:00.480 infrastructure points and assume total control of their oil and gas markets, much like we have

00:05:05.480 with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of

00:05:10.180 America. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump.

00:05:15.020 Oh, man, when I heard this, I was like, damn, man. Now that's an update for you. 0.97

00:05:20.920 Don't worry, though. Don't worry. As of 1.34 p.m. this afternoon, Trump cancels strikes against

00:05:27.120 Iran planned for a Thursday evening. It's all so exhausting. At this point, you know, it's funny.

00:05:33.740 I often talk about how when it comes to the stock market, we here at Timcast, we read the news all

00:05:39.300 day, every day. We know things before most people do. We have sources. And thus, it's not insider

00:05:44.920 trading. We just are on the forefront, the bleeding edge of information. And we could probably make

00:05:50.080 some pretty good stock market buys, some contracts and make a lot of money. And I talk about how

00:05:55.220 maybe I should just do that. Okay. Well, I already know what's going on and you do. If you watch this

00:06:00.120 show, what's happening? If, let me put it this way, from the start of the war, you bought low

00:06:05.620 and sold high, you probably made millions of dollars. And it's not even an exaggeration.

00:06:09.800 Well, it depends on how much you put in. But we start the war, oil spikes. Trump then announces

00:06:14.600 that there's going to be a deal and oil plummets. Then Trump says deal fell through and oil spikes.

00:06:21.180 Then Trump says there's going to be a deal and oil plants. If you're buying at $80,

00:06:27.120 selling at $100, shorting back down to $80, you're just printing money. Guys, don't take this as

00:06:34.680 financial advice. I'm not telling you what I'm saying. If you had done that, because who knows,

00:06:37.980 maybe this will finally be the one. Based on the fact that discussions of the Islamic Republic of

00:06:43.520 Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved. I have,

00:06:47.280 as president of the United States, canceled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this

00:06:50.500 evening. Trump said discussions and final points have been approved by the United States, Israel,

00:06:54.700 Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others.

00:06:59.340 The naval blockade will remain in full force, in effect, until this transaction is finalized.

00:07:03.960 Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly. All right. Let's see what he posted

00:07:09.260 on Truth Social. Let's see. Talking about former chairman of the SEC. Not really interested in

00:07:15.940 as it paints to Iran. This is what he posted. This is what they're highlighting. Guys,

00:07:22.600 it's a yo-yo. That's why I got to be honest. I sit here all day pulling up stories,

00:07:29.600 talking about the economics, what we can expect, what this means to the United States,

00:07:33.160 knowing full well that Trump does this. And now I got nothing for you. I got very little.

00:07:39.260 Now, truth be told, there is a little bit we can get into, and that is pertaining to

00:07:43.620 the economy and what this all means.

00:07:46.220 Oil prices fluctuate as Trump issues new threat to strike Iran.

00:07:50.540 Now we know that, let me pull up oil futures here.

00:07:55.040 Let me see, it's at 79.3.

00:07:56.320 It literally just dropped 2.2%.

00:07:59.480 Let me just pull this in.

00:08:01.600 Oil futures dropped 2.2 right when Trump said, we're not going to strike.

00:08:05.980 They had spiked upwards of $82 before dropping off.

00:08:10.620 So you can go back to the past five days.

00:08:13.500 Look at this major cliff.

00:08:15.220 It's a yo-yo.

00:08:15.860 What did I say?

00:08:16.700 June 5th, the price spikes, fluctuates, then drops.

00:08:20.500 It's exactly what I said.

00:08:22.340 Maybe we can get like a, look at this.

00:08:24.720 It's insane.

00:08:26.240 It's an insane news cycle.

00:08:28.100 You can see right when the war started, and you can see it goes up and down and up and down.

00:08:32.820 Lord have mercy.

00:08:34.180 Apparently, there's this viral post where somebody made a video game where you can ride a dirt bike on any company's stock.

00:08:42.200 And I'm like, this is the one where you can't beat it because it's just just crazy and insanity.

00:08:47.400 But I do got some stories for you.

00:08:50.740 The die has been cast from Politico.

00:08:52.660 Trump allies fear it's too late to reverse economic woes.

00:08:55.940 Less than a quarter of Americans approve of how the president is managing cost of living issues, according to a poll released this week.

00:09:02.400 And we've got this from Axios.

00:09:04.840 Trump gifts Democrats ready-made midterm ads.

00:09:08.380 Indeed.

00:09:09.360 They say Trump has served up a platter of ready-made campaign ads to Democrats,

00:09:12.820 suggesting he's fine with rising prices and unconcerned about America's financial struggles.

00:09:16.980 Trump delivered three eye-popping quotes.

00:09:19.400 One, I don't think about America's financial situation.

00:09:23.240 I don't think Trump cares about the midterms.

00:09:25.100 I really do.

00:09:25.440 Someone says to me, say, Tim, don't you think it's a little weird Trump doesn't really care about the midterms?

00:09:28.220 and some said maybe he's resigned to have lost. Actually, I think now it's that they are resigned

00:09:36.340 to have won. They know Watson v. RNC is coming down. Universal mail-in voting will be gone.

00:09:41.920 Democrats will not be able to win because they just burned all their goodwill and they don't

00:09:47.020 have a strong enough base anymore. No one's donating. They're in trouble. Two weeks later,

00:09:52.160 he says, I don't care about the midterms. That's BS because his quote was, I don't care about the

00:09:57.360 midterms, take a look at these primaries. That's what's going to happen. Trump was saying,

00:10:03.720 the people I endorse win. It's going to be big. When Trump was asked Wednesday about the latest

00:10:09.940 inflation numbers showing a 4.2% rise in prices, he says, I love inflation. Now, Michael Kinsley

00:10:16.800 famously defined a gaffe as, when a politician tells the truth, some obvious truth he isn't

00:10:21.740 supposed to say. All right. All right. Let's play this game. I'll give you this one, boys.

00:10:26.920 I'll give you this one. I love inflation. I do. Tim Pool says it. OK, let me explain. I actually

00:10:32.940 don't love inflation. I'm playing a game, although someone will probably clip that anyway.

00:10:36.660 Trump says, I love inflation and inflation isn't inherently bad. It isn't inherently good.

00:10:42.700 It tends to be bad. And this this is what Trump is is probably not articulating very well.

00:10:49.220 He says, the numbers were great.

00:10:51.480 You know what I really love?

00:10:52.320 I love the inflation.

00:10:53.520 You know why?

00:10:54.380 Because as soon as this war is over, when the war is over, it's coming down.

00:10:57.820 And it's going to come down like a rock, he said, referring to U.S. efforts to secretly

00:11:02.220 get oil ships.

00:11:03.640 Democrats pounce on Trump's remarks with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth

00:11:07.940 Warren, accusing him of not caring about the rising cost of living for Americans.

00:11:12.640 You know, Trump's not running for reelection, right?

00:11:15.240 I don't think he really cares.

00:11:16.340 but inflation is good for some people sometimes. Indeed it is. I'm going to put it like this.

00:11:23.380 Economics lesson for my friends who are not familiar. I know most of you probably already

00:11:26.440 are and you're probably already commenting being like, I know exactly what Tim's going to say.

00:11:30.640 I know most of you, but there are some people who don't. So let me put it like this.

00:11:35.060 Let's say you make $10 per hour. That means for every hour we have assigned this numeric value,

00:11:43.140 10 to that hour of labor. But the dollar an hour doesn't really matter. What matters is buying

00:11:47.700 power. So let's start here. You make 10 bucks an hour and an apple costs $1. That means for every

00:11:53.420 hour you work, you can get 10 apples. That's a lot of apples. Then inflation hits. An apple now

00:11:59.220 costs $10. Where you used to be able to get 10 apples for your family every hour, you now only

00:12:04.540 get one. So the amount of money you're getting paid doesn't really matter. Inflation is the

00:12:10.700 ability of that money to trade. Now you may be saying, but Tim, how could inflation possibly be

00:12:17.000 good? Here's the best part. Credit card debt. So I'm gonna put it like this. Debt, people in debt

00:12:24.340 love inflation. You love inflation. I'll tell you why. Let's say you know you're getting paid 10

00:12:31.500 bucks an hour. And you say to a guy, listen, my paycheck is going to be on Friday. Okay. And

00:12:39.160 I'm going to get paid $10 an hour.

00:12:41.820 So I will have $10 available on Friday.

00:12:45.640 Today's Monday to buy 10 apples at $1 each.

00:12:49.980 And the guy says, I'll loan you the money to buy the apples.

00:12:53.840 So the guy slaps $10 on the counter, hands over 10 apples and says, but you owe me 10

00:12:59.940 bucks on Friday.

00:13:00.860 You are now in debt.

00:13:02.660 Then on Wednesday, war is declared.

00:13:05.420 Inflation spikes like crazy, and Apple now costs $10.

00:13:09.740 Guess what?

00:13:11.140 You owe $10 in debt on $100 worth of apples now.

00:13:16.980 So come Friday, you get paid your $10, and you look at the grocery store,

00:13:21.480 and you say, wow, an apple is $10.

00:13:24.580 I could buy one apple, but I had debt.

00:13:28.140 I bought the apples in advance,

00:13:30.140 So I actually only owe one apple's worth to 10 apples.

00:13:36.240 That's why people with debt like inflation.

00:13:39.440 I can make it a little bit more, you know, we'll do some more analogies.

00:13:42.180 But the point is this.

00:13:42.920 It's kind of like how short selling works.

00:13:44.480 But in this instance, you now have 10 apples at home.

00:13:48.220 Apples are now 10 bucks each.

00:13:49.860 So you sell half your apples.

00:13:52.020 You've paid off the debt.

00:13:53.100 You've made a $40 profit and you still have five apples left over.

00:13:57.740 The point is this.

00:13:58.740 If you owe on a 30-year mortgage, let's say $300,000, calculate today how many hours you have to work to pay off that $300,000 or student loan debt, for instance.

00:14:13.300 Let's say you've got student loan debt and you're like, it's going to take 30 years to pay off.

00:14:16.800 How many hours in today's labor based on the current buying power?

00:14:21.360 So let's say you make $50,000 a year, and you're going to, after taxes, take home $35,000, and then after expenses, you barely have a couple grand per year to pay down, say, $30,000 in debt.

00:14:34.920 With inflation, people do struggle, but prices increase.

00:14:40.440 People who work don't see a comparable increase in wages, but they do actually see an increase slightly more than they normally would.

00:14:49.280 It works better for the rich.

00:14:50.400 It is not good for the poor.

00:14:53.060 I am arguing that if you have debt, inflation devalues what you owe in terms of hard labor.

00:14:59.040 The U.S. does this on purpose.

00:15:01.760 So if you're wondering why there's inflation, it's on purpose.

00:15:05.040 Put it like this.

00:15:06.220 China buys treasury bonds.

00:15:07.920 They say, we're going to give you a ton of our money, which means you get access to our labor market in exchange for bonds where you pay us an interest rate.

00:15:16.920 So we then say they give us a billion dollars.

00:15:20.400 And that billion dollars can go a long way in the American labor market.

00:15:24.160 Trump, Bush, Clinton, Obama, whoever.

00:15:28.200 Intentionally, they do this intentionally.

00:15:30.780 Spike inflation.

00:15:33.400 That way, the value of the bonds or the debts that we have from other countries decreases.

00:15:39.920 If a billion dollars can get you a billion, you know, a million people working for one hour or let's, you know, that's a lot.

00:15:46.940 let's say $10 million, if the value of their debt is debased because workers need more money,

00:15:55.280 they get less. That's the con. Now again.

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00:16:30.540 Typically, it's not good for regular people.

00:16:32.420 Hence, when Trump is like, I love inflation,

00:16:34.560 he's talking about how now we can pay back certain debts for less.

00:16:40.520 You see how it works?

00:16:42.380 It's one big game.

00:16:43.540 Now, the truth is, for regular people, they get left high and dry. That's what I'm saying. It's not good for regular people. Middle class people might be able to exploit this in some capacity. There is a minor benefit. So again, if you have a 30 year mortgage, like 30, you know, $300,000, inflation every year means the debt you're holding is becoming worth less and less in terms of raw buying power.

00:17:04.440 And that's why your house goes up in value, and this is how you end up with equity.

00:17:09.580 This is the manipulation game they play.

00:17:12.120 This is Federal Reserve nonsense, typically does not benefit the working class people.

00:17:15.840 If you're smart, you can navigate, you can figure out how to do it.

00:17:18.480 This is what Trump, he's actually not talking about it.

00:17:22.620 He's saying, I love inflation because it'll go down.

00:17:25.100 But this is why wealthy individuals with lots of debt love inflation.

00:17:30.680 Let's say, you know what they do, these rich guys, these CEOs?

00:17:33.700 let's say they have stock in the company they can't sell.

00:17:37.100 They go to a bank and they say,

00:17:38.460 I want to get a loan against my stock.

00:17:40.920 You give me $10 million against the stock I have in this company.

00:17:45.600 I will pay you back with interest over time, right?

00:17:49.700 They can write off the interest as a loss.

00:17:52.660 The money they received is not income.

00:17:54.840 It was a loan.

00:17:56.200 So now they're not paying income tax.

00:17:57.940 And then with inflation, the value of their stock will increase

00:18:02.260 because it's the dollars.

00:18:05.420 If you've got a share in a company,

00:18:07.500 the value of that company is going to remain

00:18:09.500 the value of that company.

00:18:10.440 I don't mean dollar value.

00:18:11.400 I mean the actual hard value of that company.

00:18:13.360 So inflation drives up stock values.

00:18:17.240 Then you say, I took out a million dollar

00:18:20.300 or $10 million loan against a billion in stock.

00:18:22.320 It's now $2 billion in stock.

00:18:24.200 I have $10 million in cash,

00:18:26.500 and I got to pay back effectively half of what I borrowed.

00:18:31.320 That's the name of the game with debt.

00:18:33.980 Now, as for what's going on with this war stuff, my my my belief is, as it always has

00:18:39.260 been, this is intentional.

00:18:41.040 Ain't no way Donald Trump's flinging the yo-yo back and forth on accident. 1.00

00:18:45.380 It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen. 1.00

00:18:47.340 Trump could have bombed their reservoir and threatened invasion months ago. 1.00

00:18:50.980 I think this is the intended condition.

00:18:53.460 I think Trump invaded Venezuela.

00:18:55.140 I think he cleared out the criminal cartel groups and the drug traffickers in the Caribbean

00:18:59.500 so that U.S. exports could increase and be safe, taking Venezuelan oil so that he controls the

00:19:06.680 Western Hemisphere in terms of oil production, blocks the Strait of Hormuz inadvertently or

00:19:11.700 advertently so that China is cut off and our main competitors in oil production just lost their

00:19:17.340 principal passage of export. Tell me it was an accident. Maybe. But Trump could open this

00:19:24.320 whenever he wants and everything could resume back to normal. So what was the point of the war?

00:19:29.500 I think he's cut off China from half of their energy.

00:19:33.620 I think he's put them in a bind.

00:19:35.220 And every day this war goes on, the timetable by which they claim China will overtake the U.S. and the global economy diminishes.

00:19:41.320 In fact, some are now arguing they may never even get there because of this. 1.00

00:19:45.220 So, mastermind, moron, you tell me. 0.99

00:19:49.280 What I can say is, this is why I hate covering it. 0.99

00:19:52.180 I'm just going to say it like this, guys.

00:19:53.860 There have been many developments in the Iran stuff, and I don't talk about it because of this.

00:19:57.580 because I put together this big package.

00:20:00.000 I researched all these things about the war and strike points,

00:20:02.160 the reservoirs, civilian casualties, all that stuff.

00:20:05.040 And then Trump just flips the script.

00:20:07.720 It has been this way.

00:20:08.960 After like my second video where I was like,

00:20:11.220 Trump wins, like the war is over.

00:20:14.300 Trump comes out and he says, we've secured a peace deal.

00:20:16.720 The war will be ending.

00:20:17.780 We are meeting with the Iranians to negotiate

00:20:19.580 the signing of the treaty.

00:20:21.240 And I'm like, there it is, boys.

00:20:22.620 We're wrapping it up.

00:20:23.740 And then like an hour later, Trump's like,

00:20:25.540 we're bombing him again.

00:20:26.620 The war's not over.

00:20:27.580 And I'm like, OK, this is not an accident.

00:20:30.420 OK, he wiped out their entire leadership.

00:20:33.620 This is not an accident.

00:20:35.980 As for the rest of you, hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

00:20:40.960 Because I do not believe that this is over.

00:20:43.760 I also do not know that this will matter in the midterms the way the media thinks it will.

00:20:48.580 Trump's got procedural victories lined up.

00:20:52.480 I'm hoping this comes to a close.

00:20:54.180 Gas prices have been going down.

00:20:56.140 They are going down a bit further.

00:20:57.300 so this is good, good news. Around me, it was $4.30. Now it's dropped down to like $3.50.

00:21:02.860 So I'm hoping everybody gets some relief. I hope this is seriously the final moment and Trump

00:21:07.880 actually gets a deal signed. And then maybe we can get back to what matters as we prepare for

00:21:12.400 this election coming up. Smash the like button, my friends. We're gonna keep this one short. I'm

00:21:15.920 surprised I got 20 minutes out of it anyway, considering Trump just like, just came out and

00:21:19.260 did it. That's the joke. I've been working on the story all day, and then he just comes out and says

00:21:22.700 no war. That's good news. Smash the like button, share the show. Stick around. We're back at 8pm 0.99

00:21:27.940 for Timcast IRL. Thanks. And we'll see y'all then.

The Culture War - Tim Pool - June 11, 2026

Trump Declares US WILL INVADE IRAN

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