Trump ENTERING Iran WAR Will END MAGA Base, Dems WIN If GOP SPLITS Over War ft. Batya Ungar-Sargon
Summary
Trump's most favorable pollster warns it could be all over for MAGA if the president gets the U.S. more deeply involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel. Plus, a story from Newsweek about the internal war that could decide Trump s Iran response.
Transcript
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Trump's most favorable pollster warns it could all be over for MAGA.
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The Guardian says Republican hawks versus MAGA isolationists,
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the internal war that could decide Trump's Iran response.
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President Trump's most favorable pollster has warned it could be all over for MAGA.
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If the president gets the U.S. more deeply involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel.
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Kiss the Republican majority goodbye for the next decade.
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Rich Barris, the director of Big Data Poll, wrote an X.
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If he pulls the trigger, it's all over for MAGA.
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Newsweek reached out to Barris for further comment.
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Big Data Poll has given Trump the highest approval rating of plus 19 of any pollster
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It is one of just two pollsters that are yet to record a negative approval rating,
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although its most recent survey recorded a major drop-off, giving Trump a rating of just plus one.
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A recent poll by the Reagan Institute conducted before Israel launched its surprise attack
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on Iran's military and nuclear program on Friday
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shows that a majority of Republicans support Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
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However, polling has shown also that Republican voters are worried about the U.S. being drawn
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Now, my friends, Batya Unger-Sargon views herself as a MAGA lefty.
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And I'm curious to see how she sees all of this and have a conversation with her.
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We will grab this interview, pulling up the site right now.
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Can you just briefly introduce yourself for those that are not familiar with you?
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I've written two books, one on how the media got woke, one on who is the American working class
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and do they still have access to the American dream?
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And I am, for the purposes of this appearance, probably most importantly, a huge, huge, huge
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He's trying to butter me up, so I go easy on you.
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Your independence of thought and your refusal to be told what to think and your moral clarity.
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So now I'm going to go easy on you for the interview, I guess.
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Um, there's, there's a, there's a statement out, Rich Barris, Newzik wrote about this saying
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that if Trump enters the war in Iran, it will be the end of MAGA and the Republican majority
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I'm curious what you think about this ongoing rift between it's, I mean, the MAGA coalition
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So no, and I'm sort of a skeptic of the narrative that there's a real split in the MAGA movement.
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I think there's a split in the like influencers of the MAGA movement, but the actual MAGA voters,
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the actual base is quite united around the position that President Trump has staked out.
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So yes, in the influencers, you have people like Mark Levin, who is like extremely pro-Israel
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And then you have the Tucker Carlson's who are pretty anti-Israel and think that we should
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be doing nothing here, including not even supporting Israel defensively.
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And we should be dropping Israel, as he put it.
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So you have this like among the influencers, this dichotomy of pro-Israel, America first,
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I mean, anti-Israel, anti-intervention, America first, and then pro-Israel, massive intervention,
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OK, but neither of these positions is the position that the president has staked out.
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What the president is doing is he's very pro-Israel, but he's very anti-war.
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And so he has defended Israel, helped Israel in its defensive capacities.
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But from his point of view, it's very clear that he is trying to still negotiate that deal.
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He believes 100 percent Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon on behalf of America.
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But from his point of view, he's using Bibi and Israel's military supremacy to try to force
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Iran to the table to sign a deal, a peace deal in which they would commit to that.
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So if you have the pro-Israel, pro-intervention on the one side and the anti-Israel, anti-intervention
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on the other side, what the president has done is this kind of pro-Israel, anti-war lane.
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And I believe, both based on polling and based on just like the massive interviews I did for
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my second book, that the vast majority of MAGA voters are there.
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They are very pro-Israel and they're very anti-war.
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So they're like, you have to make the case to me that this is in my interest before we're
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I think Trump has basically made this our position.
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But I think most I think for for the people who, you know, I was I've always been anti-war.
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What that means is the way to describe it is I I'm not some staunch libertarian, never get
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It's that the threshold of proof and justification must be very, very high or it is very, very
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And while I agree, Trump has like right now, the public surface level position that we're
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looking at with J.D. Vance's statement and Donald Trump's assessment is we are not involved
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The Trump administration has stated we are we are asserting a defensive position.
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I think the fear that most people have, you know, Bannon, Posobiec, even people like me
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Trump may be saying now we don't want to be involved in a war with Iran and we're not
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But what happens when Iranian forces or someone trying to instigate the war, be it deep state
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or even U.S. standard intelligence assets, false flag, or we get legitimately attacked
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It feels like we are we are we are the dominoes are falling over and we're going to be involved
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So I also like you, you know, I had my time on the left and I also am very anti war.
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I came up under the regime of these false neoconservative like quagmires in the Middle East.
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First of all, I think the Iranians are being extremely careful not to touch our soldiers,
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So they are working really hard to meet that bar that the president has set for them.
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Second of all, you know, I think things are possibly changing.
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We may end up attacking only because Israel's success was so overwhelming.
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I mean, to control the airspace, the skies over Iran in five days.
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I guarantee you, the Israelis are as surprised as everybody else that it was so easy.
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I think the president might see this as an opportunity.
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You know, for our bomber jets to fly over and start dropping bunker busters on Fordow,
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But the idea that that would inexorably lead to the kind of regime change that we saw or
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our level of investment in regime change that we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, to me, that's
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It's like very clear that Trump could pull this off without us being the ones to have to
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Now, I think I'm still with you that I right now my position is they should come to the
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But I think from the president's point of view, it could be that.
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I was looking at last night on TimCast.IRL, we looked at Pew data that shows as of from
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2022 to 25, the 18 to 49-year-olds in this country have shifted heavily anti-Israel by
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I should say Israel critical is probably a better way to say it.
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I think that we're likely going to get involved in this.
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I think it is going to cause a rift among, at least, let's just say the conservatarian
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I think the Trump administration is going to be dragged into this because if they wait,
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10 years from now, support for Israel is going to be so low, there will never be an
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opportunity for the U.S. to justify any kind of action in Iran ever.
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And it's been the U.S.'s position, not necessarily the Trump administration, but the U.S., to remove
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The problem then is, I do think there is a simple baseline moral acceptable.
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The U.S. just wants to secure the trade routes in the region.
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The problem is, that's the domino that falls over that eventually sees us in a regime change war.
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So right now we've got, in the Strait of Hormuz, a tanker is on fire.
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Now, a lot of people are saying it's not directly tied to the war, but it is likely tied to the war
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because of the security massive increase that's causing chaos.
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You've got Kuwait, you've got Iran, you've got, well, not necessarily trade partners with Kuwait,
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but you've got Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia.
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They're not going to accept the Persian Gulf getting cut off.
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So the fear is, the U.S. is going to dispatch security forces to the Strait of Hormuz
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for the purpose of keeping it open, and then someone's going to get bombed.
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One of the U.S. assets will get bombed because either some Houthi rebel group,
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Iranian-backed militia group, or Iran itself will attack to assert some kind of military dominance in the region,
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or the worst case, conspiratorial scenario is a false flag by someone who wants to instigate that war,
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Our aircraft carrier was just blown up by what appears to be Iranian forces.
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Oh, I could see us retaliating, but I just don't see why that leads inevitably to regime change.
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I don't think President Trump is a person who gets dragged into things.
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The moment that meeting turned bad was when Zelensky said to him,
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look, you guys are going to get dragged into this.
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And that was when the president really lost it.
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I agree with you that the Netanyahu government wants regime change,
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but if Trump feels that they are dragging him into something he doesn't want to be a part of,
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He literally set the entire global economy on fire because he thought that that would be good for the working class.
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This is not a person who can be convinced out of his opinion.
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So I could see us, yeah, giving the bunker busters.
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I don't see him getting involved in regime change.
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He likes the mullahs where they are right now because Khomeini is very weak.
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That is exactly where he wants him so he can force him to make that deal.
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So I and I could just every time Trump tweets or talks or says something,
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you can see exactly how he is plotting this to get them exactly to where he wants them.
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So I think he's using the Israelis rather than the other way around.
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So the report is that Trump told Israel not to strike the Ayatollah.
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I think what you just mentioned, it leaves them weak, threatened,
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So they're going to say, let's hold back so I live.
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But I also think the reason is if you were to take out the actual governmental leadership,
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you end up with an ISIS style Iran of chaos you can't control.
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Right now, Trump's going to have a terrified Ayatollah being like,
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my government's going to collapse, I'm going to die.
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But what I will say to your point about Trump getting dragged into things,
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it certainly looks that way with what Israel's been doing.
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You know, Israel's claimed that Trump knew the whole time they were going to do this,
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despite the fact that Trump was negotiating with Iran.
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Tucker Carlson stated that he knew Trump was negotiating in good faith with Iran to get them
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to back down, and then Israel claimed he wasn't.
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I do think that Israel is trying to manipulate the scenario to force the U.S. to engage in regime
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I think those could both exist at the same time.
00:16:07.320
He was negotiating in real good faith and said to them,
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you have 60 days to make a deal that I approve of, like, that does not conflict with him telling
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So I think Tucker Carlson has been falsely creating this narrative where, like, it's true.
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Yeah, he had that meeting with Netanyahu in the Oval Office.
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And he said, no, I'm negotiating in good faith right now.
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Let's see what you can get, you know, with the bad cop side of things.
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So, you know, it seems like here's the thing about Israel.
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Like, our interests are frequently very aligned with Israel's, but they're not identical.
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And the idea that they are the superpower, that they are controlling the strings is just
00:17:03.540
You know, they love to say AIPAC is controlling American politics.
00:17:06.360
Every time AIPAC pulled out all the stops to stop some sort of, you know, military deal,
00:17:12.980
selling weapons to this one Iran deal here or there, they lost.
00:17:23.540
He wants to be known as the man who brought global peace.
00:17:26.960
I mean, it's obvious that's what he is trying to do.
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And he sees Iran having a nuclear weapon as being anathema to what he thinks will be the
00:17:34.620
greatest achievement for the American people in our lifetimes.
00:17:38.820
And I think he deserves credit for trying to do that.
00:17:44.360
Normalization of economics between Israel and other Arabic nations.
00:17:48.260
And Trump talked about wanting to end the Israel-Palestine conflict.
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Not to mention crossing the DMZ into North Korea.
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I think Trump really, really wants a legacy of the global savior.
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Right now you got all these MAGA people saying, holy crap, we're going to go regime change.
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I'm hoping that Trump is actually, and this may be wishful thinking, but it's a big ask
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where he wants Iran to think that, that he's capable of this because he really just wants
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And instead of having to, I think this is fair.
00:18:36.380
If any world leader given the option, would you prefer it if your enemy surrendered or you
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I want to believe, I want to believe, but I am, I'm terrified that, you know, John Bolton,
00:18:53.060
I know he's not there now, but he represented a lot of, a lot of the interests of the, the
00:19:04.440
And that was when he was in the first Trump administration.
00:19:07.680
I see why people are nervous, but I think the president deserves a little more credit than
00:19:15.380
In 2005, I was having lunch with a TV executive recently.
00:19:18.680
He told me that in 2005, Trump would call him on the phone and scream at him, what are
00:19:28.120
And so I think he deserves a little bit more credit.
00:19:30.280
I understand why like younger people don't understand why a nuclear armed Iran is a threat
00:19:37.960
And that's not because I want to see regime change.
00:19:40.080
I just think it's a false narrative that if we do give them bunker busters and we do
00:19:46.300
eliminate Fordow, therefore we will be overseeing regime change.
00:19:51.020
I think that there's a lot of steps in between there.
00:19:53.280
And the idea that Trump is going to go the route of the Boltons, he's not actually giving
00:19:59.460
That is the thing to, I think, to keep in mind.
00:20:01.720
Like, you know, Tucker wants you to think that Mark Levin got his way.
00:20:08.460
Because it is in both of their interests to make you think that.
00:20:15.260
He is really navigating this delicate situation in a brilliant, brilliant way.
00:20:19.980
And I think he deserves a lot of credit for it.
00:20:24.980
I do think it's fair to say about a lot of steps between if the U.S. supplies weapons to
00:20:29.920
Israel and they bomb Iran versus if the U.S. bombs Iran or the U.S. gets involved directly
00:20:34.000
on the ground, I think for, you know, for me, having grown up in the Iraq-Afghan war,
00:20:41.140
you know, coming of age around that time, we tend to view, like people like me and the
00:20:45.180
millennials will view war and foreign policy rather singularly.
00:20:48.980
And it's entirely fair to say maybe Trump is a different guy.
00:20:54.040
And just because we had this period in the 2000s where we engaged in these, what I would
00:20:59.440
call fraudulent invasions, doesn't mean every foreign policy action will always be exactly
00:21:06.620
And think about how different the Middle East is right now.
00:21:09.240
Trump just got back from this trip where he visited with the Saudis who hate Iran, the
00:21:13.800
Qataris who are Iran's allies, and then the UAE who are Israel's allies, right?
00:21:22.220
He has an idea of who could be applied to, you know, in the future to take on some of the
00:21:28.300
roles that historically would have been our role as the United States, but now 100% we
00:21:37.120
That said, I think you're right to be nervous about it.
00:21:41.240
I'm not really on board with the U.S. getting involved offensively.
00:21:45.780
But even if they do, I think we should give the president a little bit of credit.
00:21:49.660
So Polly Market has it at 69% that the U.S. will militaristically intervene.
00:21:59.260
By the way, I saw that drop to about 50% by this morning.
00:22:08.740
And by beginning of July and beginning of August.
00:22:15.340
It may have changed in the past 10 minutes or so.
00:22:25.880
But I do think it's fair to say there's a bunch of steps in between.
00:22:28.820
I'm curious your thoughts on this sentimental shift we've seen among Americans toward Israel.
00:22:38.120
Honestly, I don't think that that's about being like pro-Israel or anti-Israel.
00:22:41.980
The American people are very, very philo-Semitic.
00:22:44.380
They're very protective of their Jewish neighbors.
00:22:46.560
So American Jews are like, they don't realize this because most of them are Democrats, which is very sad, although it's changing, thank God.
00:22:53.700
But like the American people are the most philo-Semitic people on the planet.
00:22:58.860
Like they're just very attached to a lot of them are Christians.
00:23:01.880
And there's now when it comes to Israel, it's a little more complicated because Israel is a sovereign nation.
00:23:07.560
When I see those polls, I think what young people are saying is, look, we don't want to be paying for it.
00:23:12.120
I don't think they're saying like, we don't like Israel.
00:23:13.860
We don't recognize that it's a strategic interest in the region.
00:23:16.320
And I think they're saying something very fair, which is like, Israel is a very rich country.
00:23:24.460
And I think that's a completely fair position, one I sometimes lean towards.
00:23:28.360
I think the Israelis are now having a real conversation about like, maybe we've paid a cost for like being a client state of the United States when we can afford our own weapons.
00:23:36.660
So I think that's going to start to shift as well.
00:23:41.080
But there is also on the left, the staunchly anti-Israel.
00:23:50.340
You know, Trump is cracking down on a lot of these student visas.
00:24:04.700
I mean, you know, in the 70s, you think leftists on college campuses like Israel.
00:24:08.280
They didn't, you know, like it's that's a total constant.
00:24:10.860
I to me, like the problem with the universities, it's really not the anti-Semitism, which is obviously there.
00:24:16.080
It's like the fact that they manufacture contempt for the working class.
00:24:19.800
Like, that's what I really fucking hate about it is like people graduate from there with a surefire path to, you know, the American dream.
00:24:27.360
And they come out having been educated to think that like people who work for a living with their hands are somehow lesser than I fucking hate that so much more than the anti-Semitism, which I think is a sideshow.
00:24:38.380
Well, it's going to be funny when AI takes all those jobs away.
00:24:41.320
All the all the white collar, all the academic jobs are gone.
00:24:44.040
And the only jobs left are we need someone who can lift stuff.
00:24:49.280
You saw that video of the the protester where the black woman's trying to get to work and the white guy's like, oh, no, not work.
00:25:05.580
Well, I'm curious if you have any final thoughts on all the stuff, anything we didn't we didn't address or, you know, just keep doing what you're doing, Tim.
00:25:19.960
I'm on Twitter at Bunger Sargon or refuse to call it X.
00:25:27.640
And yeah, you can find me on Tim IRL next week on Tuesday night.
00:25:34.100
You hanging out and giving us your insights so much.
00:25:48.860
And interesting, giving me a little bit of optimism, I guess.
00:26:03.560
And the next thing we know, there's going to be one circumstance after another where we have no choice but to get involved.
00:26:09.860
We're going to have security forces in the region.
00:26:11.880
Our men and women in uniform are going to get bombed by some Iranian-backed group.
00:26:15.120
Trump's going to say we will not tolerate a single death.
00:26:19.700
I hope and I beg and I pray that is not the case.
00:26:30.360
And I think Trump does deserve a bit of benefit of the doubt.
00:26:37.960
He's trying really hard to maintain a promising legacy.
00:26:41.500
He's changed his position many times when his base has lobbied him on social media.
00:26:48.720
Trump isn't the guy who just listens to big business.
00:26:53.140
You know, we had that moment where Trump came out and said, you know, we got to protect the farmers.
00:26:56.900
A lot of these farms, they got illegal immigrants.
00:27:04.840
The base said, no, we are not going to give special privileges to big business.
00:27:20.020
I think it's fair to say that Trump is very, very concerned.
00:27:24.860
I was shocked to see that Trump had called Tucker Carlson kooky.
00:27:33.740
And I'm pretty dang sure Tucker can just call the president on the phone and say, Mr. President.
00:27:41.120
In fact, there are numerous stories about how Tucker met with Trump and has given him advice on numerous occasions.
00:27:48.400
I really do think that Trump takes it to heart when he hears Tucker Carlson put out a statement.
00:27:59.900
And he's influential, whether he wants to say it or not.
00:28:02.080
Trump said, maybe you can get a television deal and then people will listen.
00:28:05.220
Yeah, he's getting millions on every show he does per night.
00:28:08.040
It's one of the top podcasts in the world right now.
00:28:10.160
Now, Tucker did not lose influence because he's not on cable TV anymore.
00:28:16.580
Granted, he's probably not getting the same thing that he actually might be getting more.
00:28:20.640
His influence among the older generation probably went down because 70-plus-year-olds are watching Fox News.
00:28:29.740
But in the key demo, I think Tucker's still doing really well.
00:28:33.340
So I'm hoping that as long as we all maintain that pressure.
00:28:38.380
I'm not, you know, I consider myself anti-intervention, anti-war.
00:28:43.480
But I'm not going to, you don't see me doing this.
00:28:45.860
I don't go on X and scream, you know, anti, like, I'm not one of these staunch, hardcore dudes.
00:28:52.960
That's why people call me a milquetoast fence hitter.
00:29:00.060
This means that I try to move the needle as much as I can without breaking it off.
00:29:06.360
And there were a lot of people that their whole view is no, never, not ever on so many issues.
00:29:12.320
And my attitude is what can we accomplish today?
00:29:15.720
That's why I voted for Trump, despite the fact that I don't view him as a perfect avatar of everything I believe in.
00:29:21.400
And when people say, well, I'm not going to vote for him because he's not the candidate I wanted.
00:29:27.080
I say, OK, but does he get you a lot of things that are good?
00:29:30.140
Yeah, but I don't want to support the two-party system.
00:29:32.400
OK, well, listen, the two-party system has primaries.
00:29:35.680
The Democrat primary is busted and they have coronations.
00:29:39.880
But on the Republican side, Trump shows you actually can get your guy to win, even if he's somewhat libertarian or otherwise.
00:29:48.900
The primary is the process by which the candidates rise up.
00:29:51.920
I don't care if it's just two people at the end of the day.
00:29:55.200
We had a whole primary season and the people who made it made it.
00:30:04.700
And that means Trump may be doing things that I don't like.
00:30:07.780
But I'm not going to sit here and be like, throw the baby out with the bathwater.
00:30:10.560
I'm going to say, well, Trump got rid of DEI and contracting.
00:30:13.380
Trump's pushing back against DEI in schools and public works.
00:30:17.860
Donald Trump is working on tax cut things that I like.
00:30:37.640
And we say, Mr. President, we deeply care about this issue.
00:30:44.080
Now, I talked to Sebastian Gorka a month or two ago at this point, and he said, we are
00:30:50.180
not going to have these long quagmire regime change wars, but we will strike targets.
00:30:58.580
Look, a lot of people are going to say, Tim, no, no, no world police, no military strikes.
00:31:03.040
Listen, if the U.S. has assets in a region and we have treaties and we simply say, if
00:31:10.320
I kind of shrug and say, you know, look, I don't escalation can occur, but I certainly
00:31:16.680
If you come to me and say, we're going to put boots on the ground in a foreign country
00:31:20.340
and pull out their government, be there for 20 years.
00:31:27.080
It hurts the, it's damaging to the brave men and women in uniform and to the younger
00:31:35.260
generation that's supposed to be inspired by what it means to protect America.
00:31:40.340
The funneling of money in directions that I think it's ultimately bad for this country,
00:31:44.640
neglecting our southern border, neglecting our own culture, the people of this country,
00:31:49.140
our birth rates collapsing, our economy, our infrastructure, the plumbing, the roads, the
00:31:56.820
If you come and say, we got people bombing trade routes, so we're going to surgically
00:32:03.440
They say, Donald Trump increased the drone strikes by 432%.
00:32:07.900
Like it's, it's, it's, it's, it's this all or nothing, zero sum game BS.
00:32:15.560
But the reason he did was because he was pulling personnel back.
00:32:18.580
As US personnel came back, he wanted to maintain security in the region with a minimal play.
00:32:25.180
So drone strikes went up, but US personnel on the ground were coming back out.
00:32:34.820
I don't think it's perfect, but I got my fingers crossed that Trump's going to be the
00:32:40.380
My friends smash that like button, share the show with everyone.
00:32:43.800
You know, you can follow me on X and Instagram at Timcast.
00:32:46.780
We got our friend Russell Brand coming up right now.
00:32:52.340
Sometimes, sometimes it changes, but you know, it's usually, it's usually Russell.
00:32:56.300
We got Russell Brand coming up in just about a minute, who is going to be live talking about
00:33:04.520
Trump turns on Tucker as MAGA is split over the US war with Iran.
00:33:21.220
The influential people in the pro-Trump space can change and shape opinions.
00:33:27.760
If we're talking about right now, a simple idea, Trump wants limited military engagement
00:33:36.600
I actually think you'll find a majority of Americans are probably in favor of that.
00:33:40.800
If the issue is intervention, that's where the real divide is.
00:33:44.840
So it's not that Tucker is wrong or that Mark Levin is wrong.
00:33:50.540
What I'm saying is, uh, about what they, they expect to happen, not what they want.
00:33:55.160
I certainly disagree with Mark Levin and more, more so agree with Tucker.
00:33:58.480
My point is, what Trump is doing may not reflect what either of these personalities actually
00:34:06.020
My friends, we're going to send you on your way to hang out with Russell Brand.
00:34:17.540
Make sure you check out TimCast IRL tonight at 8 p.m.
00:34:27.160
He's the number one stream in the country on average.
00:34:33.420
If some streamer beefs with someone, they might spike.
00:34:35.040
But on average, almost every single day, Crowder's number one.
00:34:42.260
It's an honor to be working with all y'all and to follow Stephen Crowder's great show,
00:34:48.300
massive show, and all of his fans for supporting and watching this show.
00:35:00.340
Everybody, you know, everybody in the morning lineup has their audiences.
00:35:03.940
But it's a privilege to get to work with all these guys, and I respect it.
00:35:09.240
But once again, follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast.