The Culture War - Tim Pool - August 11, 2025


Trump TAKES OVER DC, Police Accused Of FAKING Low Crime Rate ⧸ Gay Marriage IS OVER？ ft. Josh Hammer


Episode Stats


Length

36 minutes

Words per minute

189.67268

Word count

6,973

Sentence count

560

Harmful content

Misogyny

6

sentences flagged

Toxicity

14

sentences flagged

Hate speech

9

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A D.C. police commander has been suspended and accused of changing crime stats to make it look like crime is going down. President Donald Trump has federalized the police and deployed the National Guard to patrol the streets of the nation s capital.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:01:28.640 And the crime is out of control.
00:01:30.160 I mean, D.C. is really one of the only major cities in America.
00:01:33.860 I mean, I'll put it this way.
00:01:35.380 I mean, is there any reason why just a few blocks from the White House,
00:01:39.540 there should be shots fired in broad daylight?
00:01:42.120 I mean, these are kind of things that happen there in the nation's capital.
00:01:45.140 A D.C. police commander has been suspended and accused of changing crime stats.
00:01:51.000 The union says leadership in D.C. are flubbing the numbers to make it look like crime is going down.
00:01:57.200 Despite the fact we experienced this crime search all across the country in these major cities,
00:02:01.400 they're all claiming crime is going down.
00:02:03.620 Donald Trump has federalized D.C., or I should say the police, and deployed the National Guard.
00:02:10.840 On top of this, as an aside, we'll be getting into the Obergefell issue.
00:02:15.100 But the question is, why are we getting these reports that crime is down when it feels like crime is up?
00:02:23.060 I'll be joined by Josh Hammer of Newsweek and the Article 3 Project.
00:02:26.840 Let's bring him in and discuss all of this.
00:02:33.920 All right, here we go.
00:02:35.700 Loading it up.
00:02:39.300 How's it going, Josh?
00:02:40.080 Can you hear me?
00:02:41.000 Hey, I got you, Tim.
00:02:42.160 Hey, how's it going?
00:02:43.620 Going great.
00:02:44.260 How about you?
00:02:45.200 I'm going, I'm going, it's going pretty well over here.
00:02:47.760 We've got big news today.
00:02:49.080 A couple of huge stories.
00:02:50.360 The first that I want to really get into is Trump's announcement that he's sending in the National Guard.
00:02:55.500 He's going to take federal control of the police.
00:02:58.100 We've also heard that some federal law enforcement agencies have already begun to patrol D.C. over the crime.
00:03:04.800 We've got this crazy story that a D.C. police commander was flubbing the numbers to make it look like crime was going down.
00:03:11.580 First, I'll just, you know, your thoughts and opinions.
00:03:14.680 Is this the right move?
00:03:16.560 Other than that, what's going on in D.C.?
00:03:18.780 Yeah, so a lot to unpack here.
00:03:21.520 I happen to think that this is a brilliant move.
00:03:23.460 I am a big, huge opponent, frankly, of this move.
00:03:27.740 I lived in D.C. myself for a few years, like many in our circles have.
00:03:33.420 Major cities in America.
00:03:35.380 I mean, I'll put it this way.
00:03:36.920 I mean, is there any reason why just a few blocks from the White House there should be shots fired in broad daylight?
00:03:43.640 I mean, these are kind of things that happen there in the nation's capital.
00:03:46.620 I mean, when President Trump says that our beautiful capital with the Lincoln Memorial, the Washington Monument, I mean, this should be a place for tourists not only to flock from around the world, which they already do, but where they feel safe on a day-to-day basis.
00:03:59.920 So it's good stuff on the policy.
00:04:02.700 It's also a brilliant opportunity, I think, for the Trump administration and for the political right more generally to disprove all sorts of fallacies that have emerged in the past 20 to 30 years from the left when it comes to criminal justice policing.
00:04:16.060 The left has been going on and on ever since the Rudy Giuliani era in New York City, Rudy Giuliani, broken windows policing, largely continued to an extent, at least, by Mayor Bloomberg.
00:04:26.140 Ever since then, certainly when I was in law school from 2013, 2016, starting around then and really escalating during the Obama years, the left has just done a total 180 against police, against criminal justice.
00:04:38.180 They say that less police means more safety.
00:04:40.440 This is just an amazing opportunity, I think, for just a real live experiment, a real-time experiment.
00:04:47.180 Let's actually make sure that the feds are going to sick the D.C. police in these areas where they are typically reluctant and hesitant to patrol there.
00:04:55.400 And it's a great opportunity for the right, I think, to disprove two to three decades' worth of left-wing fallacies and erroneous logic when it comes to proactive policing.
00:05:04.520 The politics, I think, are also a total no-brainer.
00:05:06.660 It's not just sound policy.
00:05:08.100 The politics are also great there.
00:05:09.700 Crime is, across the board, one of the issues where a plurality of Americans cite as one of the most salient issues facing the republic.
00:05:17.060 It was one of the major issues in the 2024 election, frankly, along with immigration, the economy, inflation.
00:05:21.800 Everyone cares about crime.
00:05:23.420 You know, suburban moms there, we talk about them as a key swing demographic. 1.00
00:05:26.900 Everyone cares about crime there.
00:05:28.520 And, you know, just putting on my legal cap for a second, Tim, this is also directly in line with the constitutional vision.
00:05:35.360 You know, D.C. didn't really get any kind of meaningful home rule until a 1973 law passed by Congress called the D.C. Home Rule Act,
00:05:44.740 which really, for the first time, created the modern D.C. mayor's office, this council.
00:05:49.960 To this day, it's kind of a mixed bag, actually.
00:05:52.100 Congress actually selects the municipal judges there in Washington, D.C.
00:05:56.280 But moves towards greater federalization of D.C. is actually directly in line with the federal envision.
00:06:03.340 You know, the left has long pushed for D.C. statehood and for D.C. voting in Washington and so forth there.
00:06:09.300 That's certainly not what the founders thought there.
00:06:11.440 So from both a legal perspective, a political perspective, and above all, just a quality of life public policy perspective,
00:06:17.500 I think it's a win-win-win across the board, frankly.
00:06:20.040 I think so.
00:06:21.280 You know, do you live there now, by chance?
00:06:24.100 Or I don't know if you know.
00:06:24.720 I don't.
00:06:25.100 I live in Florida right now.
00:06:25.980 Oh, okay.
00:06:26.820 So we're in West Virginia, of course, but people, a lot of people don't know this.
00:06:30.640 The Eastern Panhandle, we're like an hour and a half from D.C.
00:06:33.220 So all of our big city, like the shows we do, anytime we do an event, we're going to be in the D.C. metro or in D.C. itself.
00:06:39.920 It's insane.
00:06:41.340 It is not an understatement.
00:06:43.760 It's crazy to me to hear Democrats claiming crime is going down when literally everybody witnesses it.
00:06:50.460 I was just in D.C. the past three weekends.
00:06:53.600 We were doing live shows.
00:06:55.480 And I happened upon a conversation between two government—one guy who was a government contractor and one woman who actually worked for the D.O.D.
00:07:04.540 And guess what the first thing the guy—well, the first thing they ask is like, oh, so you're from around here, right?
00:07:10.380 Okay, first question after that is, do you feel safe?
00:07:13.920 And I started laughing because everyone knows what's true.
00:07:18.900 There were shots fired near the White House, not to mention the rioting and the chaos.
00:07:23.480 But this story about this commander flubbing the numbers is crazy.
00:07:26.780 So I'm curious your thoughts on this.
00:07:29.080 This is really weird.
00:07:30.280 It always turns out that there's some—I hate to do it, but Democrats involved in some kind of surreptitious or nefarious political play where they're manipulating the numbers, lying about the narrative, and trying to trick people.
00:07:45.640 So the question I have on this is, do you believe—like, so there are allegations right now, but the police union has said that the higher-ups are flubbing these numbers.
00:07:53.820 Do you believe the numbers are being flubbed?
00:07:55.880 And if they are, why are they actually doing it?
00:07:58.480 So, look, I have not done a personal deep dive.
00:08:02.200 I have no personal sources within the D.C. police there that would give me kind of credence one way or the other.
00:08:07.180 But what I can say is that it strikes me as entirely plausible.
00:08:10.640 And what I can also say, Tim, is that I have heard anecdotally—I haven't spoken with this person, but through secondhand, I know of a source in Mayor Bowser's office.
00:08:21.160 And Mayor Muriel Bowser, you know, not exactly a right winger, to put it mildly there. 0.74
00:08:25.380 But apparently, even she has, at times, expressed more of an openness to try to ramp up police enforcement there, trying to crack down on carjackings.
00:08:35.440 And what I've heard is that she gets pushback from a lot of black leaders, you know, basically the Al Sharpton types there.
00:08:42.080 You know, the folks who are trying to, for X, Y, Z reasons, trying to protect gangsters and carjackers and gangbangers there.
00:08:50.740 And, you know, your mileage may vary as to why you think they would want to do such a thing there.
00:08:55.780 But there are some political, self-serving, cynical interests there when it comes to trying to kind of, you know, get your turf and secure your political territory there.
00:09:04.560 D.C. is a very corrupt city historically there.
00:09:07.340 I mean, there's very little about that there.
00:09:09.600 I mean, it kind of shares a lot of resemblance with Chicago and New Orleans in certain respects there.
00:09:13.440 So I would not be the least bit surprised if there was outright flubbing on the numbers there.
00:09:17.400 But a lot of this, I mean, let's just kind of zoom out a little bit and contextualize within this kind of post-2020, post-George Floyd, Black Lives Matter, cultural milieu that we're currently living in.
00:09:26.620 You know, these days, Tim.
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00:10:23.700 Hi, I'm Chris Gethard, and I'm very excited to tell you about Beautiful Anonymous, a podcast where I talk to random people on the phone.
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00:10:53.440 If you just recite basic statistics, you know, if you say that black people in America, I'm totally making up numbers, by the way, but if you say that they're responsible for, you know, 50% of homicides or whatever the actual number may be there, you know, you are immediately called a racist for simply citing statistics there.
00:11:08.780 So I have no doubt about it that in a city like Washington, D.C., which is a very, very black city, that is going to be very powerful, you know, black politicians who are going to try to do things like this, you know, along the lines of what you're suggesting.
00:11:21.560 That's a that's a good point.
00:11:23.220 I actually like I'll pull that.
00:11:24.900 I want to get the raw number on that.
00:11:26.940 Over the past decade, what we saw was there were several people who posted FBI crime stats and were banned on Twitter or Facebook or YouTube because it was racist to do so.
00:11:38.780 When you see that event in the private sector with these pressures, what do you think the higher ups of the police department are going to be doing as well?
00:11:45.680 They don't they don't want to be the one who comes out, issues a statement saying, oh, here, by the way, here's the racial breakdown of crime in my city.
00:11:51.620 They're going to get called racist.
00:11:53.580 The BLM is going to riot.
00:11:54.940 They're going to say the police are lying and they're going to say it's all race based.
00:11:59.240 It's crazy, right?
00:12:00.320 I mean, it really says a lot about where we're at as a society.
00:12:05.380 We're like literally just saying statistics, you know, it somehow gives you a presumption that you're coming from from a racially nefarious perspective there.
00:12:14.240 It's it's it's absolutely nuts there.
00:12:16.820 And no one wants to say it because of the fear of being called racist.
00:12:19.600 I mean, this is one of the great fears in American society over the past really four to five decades.
00:12:25.260 I guess I guess since the 1960s.
00:12:26.960 Right.
00:12:27.140 I mean, ever since the civil rights era, Americans have just been utterly petrified of being called racist.
00:12:30.640 But when that takes the form of being afraid to to actually name statistics of actually saying, you know what?
00:12:37.020 No, actually, a city like Washington, D.C. that has a larger minority population, we actually really do need proactive policing there.
00:12:43.700 You know, going back to the Giuliani and Bloomberg era of New York City, you know, NYPD policing there to actually say, you know what?
00:12:49.680 No, we actually need more NYPD squad patrol cars in certain areas in the Bronx and Queens and whatnot there that have a demographic makeup that is disproportionately prone to crime.
00:12:59.720 We have to have these conversations.
00:13:01.360 I mean, what is the point of even having a police in the first place there if you're not willing to have these conversations?
00:13:05.720 Now, again, what I've heard kind of secondhand is that Mayor Bowser in D.C., who, again, is a lefty.
00:13:13.080 But even she, I think, is getting sufficient pushback on the crime stuff that she's expressed a willingness there.
00:13:18.140 And she herself has gotten pushback from various other folks.
00:13:21.460 So it's a total mess there.
00:13:23.120 And again, I think Donald Trump's doing the doing totally, frankly, the right thing there.
00:13:26.300 Policy, politically and legally, it's a no brainer.
00:13:28.820 So I actually just pulled the data and anyone who gets offended can blame it on chat GPT because maybe it's wrong.
00:13:34.940 But it says that white people commit around 60 percent of violent crime as per the FBI and black people about 38 percent.
00:13:42.500 Asians about one to two.
00:13:44.160 American Indians about one to two.
00:13:45.780 And Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander is between zero and one.
00:13:48.960 The argument, of course, that people make is that 38 percent of crime coming from a smaller portion of the population, around 13 percent, is disproportionate.
00:13:59.820 Now, some people want to – that is the data, OK?
00:14:03.580 I'm not saying that people are good, bad, or otherwise based on their race.
00:14:07.000 Not saying that at all.
00:14:08.280 But if you even brought these issues up, you were getting banned.
00:14:12.320 So, again, D.C. police, Chicago police, all of these Democrat-run cities are trying to claim that crime isn't as bad as it is.
00:14:20.400 Hillary Clinton even tweeted this out.
00:14:23.220 Crime's at a 30-year low in D.C. 0.99
00:14:24.660 Trump's unhinged and lying. 0.94
00:14:25.840 And then Trump says the opposite. 0.93
00:14:28.600 But now we've got the story of the police union saying they're actually flubbing the numbers.
00:14:33.120 I think it makes sense.
00:14:34.880 If you're in this politically appointed position, you know that if you're going to go to the mayor and say, we're getting disproportionate crime from the black community, she's going to get pushback from the people you mentioned, like Sharpton and these other BLM activists. 0.59
00:14:45.940 So she's going to say, give me better numbers.
00:14:49.080 It's all political.
00:14:51.080 So the one thing is really obvious.
00:14:53.520 I mean, Trump sending in law enforcement and taking command of law enforcement, I think, is a good idea.
00:14:59.420 But do you have any concerns?
00:15:01.900 I remember when they erected those fences around the Capitol building and it was considered dystopian because it's supposed to be public.
00:15:08.500 There are some that are expressing concerns that, yes, there may be violent crime, but Trump sending in the National Guard, federal law enforcement, taking over the police is pushing us towards a police state.
00:15:16.880 I personally do not share those concerns.
00:15:21.060 I'm sure that some more libertarian minded folks have some legitimate concerns on those grounds there.
00:15:25.960 I am more of a law and order kind of guy, Tim.
00:15:28.060 I mean, that's just kind of been my MO really ever since I first started in law school when I was clerking for a federal judge on Fifth Circuit.
00:15:33.740 I mean, I'm a law and order guy.
00:15:36.220 From my vantage point, if you don't actually have public safety, if you don't have people who actually feel safe walking the sidewalks, I mean, what is the point of having these beautiful memorials?
00:15:45.000 What's the point of having the Smithsonian, the Washington Monument, if you're going to be scared to actually go there with your family, with your young children in the first place there?
00:15:53.260 Again, this is the nation's capital.
00:15:55.060 I mean, I remember the first time that I went to Washington as a kid.
00:15:58.520 I grew up in the New York area originally there, and I was so excited.
00:16:01.500 I had read all about this in elementary school and middle school and just to go there and see the sights.
00:16:06.100 You know, I was eyes wide open there.
00:16:07.440 I was just so, so happy to see it there.
00:16:09.860 And the notion, now that I'm a new father, we had our first child last December, the notion that I could one day take our daughter to see all this there after I do my best as a father to try and instill in her a love for America and civics and government.
00:16:21.080 The notion that I would be scared or reluctant to do so because, God forbid, there could be a gangbanger, a carjacker, shots fired on a random street there.
00:16:30.220 I mean, that's utterly terrifying.
00:16:31.560 So, to me, there's somewhat of an inversion here of the order of operations that we have to have law and order first in order to appreciate these monuments in the first place there.
00:16:41.020 And I think that what Donald Trump is saying, probably correctly, is that we don't currently have that there.
00:16:45.360 Let's establish that, and then let's kind of bring in everyone to enjoy all that Washington, D.C. has to offer.
00:16:49.840 You know, the crazy thing is I do a lot of events in D.C. because we live here, and the first thing we're doing when we're doing logistics is how much security do I have to bring with me?
00:17:02.820 Where I live in West Virginia, I don't have to worry about it.
00:17:08.280 Crime is below average here.
00:17:10.540 Everybody's strapped.
00:17:12.040 And I go about my business and no issues.
00:17:16.660 I go to D.C., and immediately it's like, okay, we're going to have two guards waiting for you when you arrive.
00:17:23.840 When you get out of your car, they'll be there.
00:17:25.260 And it's crazy to think that's how we live, and it shouldn't be that way.
00:17:28.640 But I do want to jump to the next subject for the big news of the day, and that is the challenge to Obergefell, which I don't know if you saw, but Kim Davis, she's the clerk, I believe, from Kentucky,
00:17:39.100 who was actually jailed for refusing to issue gay marriage licenses after the ruling on Obergefell.
00:17:44.580 Now, I'll give you my thoughts right away.
00:17:47.620 So Kim Davis, through her lawyer, she's filed a writ of cert to the Supreme Court. 0.95
00:17:51.280 There's a possibility of a ruling next year in 2026 that could overturn gay marriage.
00:17:57.540 At the time, the ruling was 5-4 upholding this argument under the 40th Amendment that states must recognize gay marriage licenses.
00:18:04.380 I think based on the current makeup of the Supreme Court, there is no way that they will uphold Obergefell.
00:18:12.180 I believe one year's time it will be overturned, but I'm curious what you think.
00:18:16.320 Well, Tim, you know, look, cards on the table.
00:18:19.860 So I was in law school when Obergefell came down.
00:18:22.160 I am a longtime opponent of same-sex marriage as a matter of public policy.
00:18:26.260 I think that is the incorrect definition of marriage, and as far as a legal constitutional matter is concerned as well.
00:18:32.620 I genuinely think that Anthony Kennedy's majority opinion in Obergefell is probably the single most ludicrous majority opinion in my entire lifetime.
00:18:39.440 That thing is not law.
00:18:40.520 It is middle school poetry at best.
00:18:43.860 Well, can you say anything specifically?
00:18:49.420 Sure.
00:18:50.380 Sure.
00:18:51.100 So, I mean, he writes his opinion.
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00:19:20.540 20 to 25 pages, maybe 30 at the most, give or take there.
00:19:23.280 He doesn't actually even make a straightforward legal argument.
00:19:26.240 He makes a vague reference to the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment.
00:19:30.520 He makes a vague reference to the Due Process Clause.
00:19:33.200 And then he basically says that if you kind of do a little this, a little that there, you know, kind of, you know, it makes sense that marriage has evolved in the understanding of human beings such that this thing is no longer constitutional there.
00:19:43.040 But that's just not really how constitutional law works.
00:19:46.840 I mean, when the 14th Amendment was ratified in 1868, I mean, obviously, same-sex marriage was not even a figment of anyone's imagination.
00:19:53.320 But actually, you know, private homosexual acts themselves, sodomy, was prescribed virtually everywhere.
00:19:58.080 So, you know, the notion that they could have possibly envisioned this, I think, is totally preposterous.
00:20:02.920 You know, so for all those reasons, I would love nothing more than to agree with you that this case actually will be overturned.
00:20:09.000 Having said that, I don't think it's going to happen.
00:20:12.200 In fact, I don't think it's going to get anywhere close to happening, actually, to be honest.
00:20:15.400 To be honest with you, yes.
00:20:16.220 I mean, they said that about Roe v. Wade, though.
00:20:18.440 And that was stronger, in my opinion.
00:20:24.320 Well, here's the thing.
00:20:25.500 So there's lots to unpack here.
00:20:28.860 So you need four votes, four of the nine, in order to grant a writ of certiorari and actually hear a case straight on there.
00:20:36.700 So if I'm just looking at the justice and trying to count votes, I think you can easily count to four justices who agree as a first principles matter that Obergefell is wrong.
00:20:45.760 But most of the justices have a somewhat convoluted process for what they call stare decisis, which is how much to rely on legal precedent and when to consider trying to overturn a precedent that even they might concede is flawed.
00:20:59.560 But it's really only Clarence Thomas, to an extent, Neil Gorsuch, but Neil Gorsuch, let's recall, had that Bostock case in 2020, which is a transgender case.
00:21:08.480 He's a little wobbly on these issues.
00:21:10.200 So it's really only Clarence Thomas who takes a truly, truly, truly principled stance on stare decisis, where he basically says, if it's wrong, it's wrong, period, full stop, end of story.
00:21:19.500 And sure enough, in Thomas's concurrence, in the Dobbs case, which overturned Roe v. Wade, he actually did call for the overturning of Obergefell.
00:21:27.100 But he's the only justice on record who has actually directly done that.
00:21:31.260 So I think probably at most, if I'm just being honest here, you probably have two of the nine justices at most, Thomas and Sam Alito, who are the two most conservative, who I think would agree to hear this in the first place.
00:21:42.080 I think Neil Gorsuch would probably just prefer to duck this issue.
00:21:44.580 Look, Amy Coney Barrett, I have no doubt that she thinks that Obergefell was wrongly decided, but I don't think she wants to get anywhere near this whatsoever.
00:21:52.600 John Roberts, who actually, you know, Roberts was the main dissenter in Obergefell, the chief justice.
00:21:57.400 Very powerful dissent, actually.
00:21:58.980 Really, really, really strong stuff from the chief justice a decade ago in Obergefell.
00:22:03.020 The thing about Roberts, he takes a very, very rigid view of stare decisis there.
00:22:08.040 He basically says, if it was decided recently there, I don't want to touch it again.
00:22:11.360 That's kind of his MO.
00:22:12.620 So I'm just not seeing the votes, to be honest with you.
00:22:16.800 But you're saying they'll deny cert.
00:22:19.820 It won't even go to the Supreme Court.
00:22:22.280 That is my guess.
00:22:23.520 Now, if they grant cert, I think it would be limited to a very narrow First Amendment religious freedom question for Kim Davis as to whether she has some sort of dispensation or opt out. 0.97
00:22:34.740 I don't think they're going to actually touch the 14th Amendment ruling whatsoever there.
00:22:38.200 But if I'm being very honest with you, my somewhat pessimistic guess is they probably don't grant cert in any capacity.
00:22:44.300 But if they do, I think it would be very limited to the Kim Davis dispensation question.
00:22:48.720 Again, I hope I'm wrong.
00:22:51.100 You know, carton table here.
00:22:52.460 You know, I used to be of counsel at First Liberty.
00:22:54.520 That's a religious liberty law firm there.
00:22:56.260 I'm really kind of all in on this issue.
00:22:58.200 I genuinely disagree with same-sex marriage both as a policy and a constitutional matter. 1.00
00:23:02.580 So I would love nothing more than to be wrong.
00:23:04.420 I just don't see it happening.
00:23:05.260 I want to be a bit more optimistic, but I defer to you.
00:23:08.740 I mean, you know more than I do on the patterns and the law and all these things.
00:23:13.160 I'm hoping—I know I'm probably wrong to even hope because I think the Supreme Court, as it's made up right now, time and time again has showed us there are only two justices of real courage and reason.
00:23:28.040 And that's Alito and Thomas, and the rest of them, you know, I think if it—I feel like if it comes to the argument on Obergefell, it wins.
00:23:42.240 If they're actually going to go through the idea of marriage licenses, same-sex marriage, how the law should operate, I don't see how this stands.
00:23:50.180 I feel like six to three makes the most sense.
00:23:52.720 Maybe Amy Coney Barrett, she's squishy and scared and sides of liberals sometimes. 1.00
00:23:56.380 But it really does feel like on the logic of the law—you know, my view largely is this.
00:24:03.820 Liberals like to claim whenever you bring up the Supreme Court shouldn't be doing these universal changes to culture and law.
00:24:10.160 Like Obergefell, they say, what about the Civil Rights Act?
00:24:12.820 What about when they desegregate and do all these things?
00:24:15.360 There was a law.
00:24:16.980 Congress passes a law, and the Supreme Court can then weigh its constitutionality.
00:24:21.160 In this regard, there was no law passed.
00:24:23.020 Most states today still have bans on same-sex marriage, but only due to that precedent are allowing it to occur. 1.00
00:24:32.580 So I hear this, and you're making me a little pessimistic. 0.94
00:24:36.960 I am worried because maybe they just dodge the issue like cowards.
00:24:40.500 So, look, I think you're right that if the question were presented to the justice and they basically said, you know, ignore the fact that this case was decided 10 years ago, ignore what lawyers call reliance interests, ignore all that, just actually rule on the literal 14th Amendment question, I think you're totally right.
00:24:58.940 I think that there are six votes then to just put in a simple statement, Obergefell was wrongly decided as a matter of law.
00:25:05.940 I have no doubt about that.
00:25:07.360 My point is only that that's just not necessarily, unfortunately, in my view, that's not necessarily how these decisions are made.
00:25:13.420 A lot of the justices, you know, Amy Coney Barrett's a very good example.
00:25:16.720 So Barrett clerked for Justice Scalia.
00:25:18.760 She's very much a Scalia acolyte.
00:25:21.440 Scalia, in his jurisprudence, had this well-established multi-part bouncing test for Stardust Isis, basically when you go in there and when you overturn a flawed precedent.
00:25:31.880 And a lot of these lawyers who put a very, you know, a firm emphasis on precedent and Stardust Isis put a high reliance on reliance interests, which basically means if there are people in the here and now that are relying on this ruling there,
00:25:46.580 we are going to be very reluctant to overturn it.
00:25:49.440 And I think the number of people here who have same-sex marriage licenses in America in the year 2025, I don't know the exact number, but I think it's maybe like around a million, two million, something like that there.
00:25:59.440 I mean, that is a non-negligible reliance interest.
00:26:03.600 Now, in my view of Stardust Isis, that doesn't matter because if it's wrong as a matter of law, it's wrong, overturn it, period, full stop, end of story.
00:26:10.820 To me, that's the only principled approach to take, frankly.
00:26:13.580 But, you know, even for a lot of these right of center justices, that's just not necessarily the approach they take.
00:26:18.720 Yeah, it's a problem, though, in this country that the legislative branch is supposed to be handling these issues.
00:26:25.380 And it's come down to a win the presidency and take the Supreme Court and build the structure you want.
00:26:33.380 That seems to be what's happening.
00:26:35.720 It's funny, the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade was sound and principled, albeit some may disagree on certain issues.
00:26:43.640 Fine.
00:26:44.900 The issue with Obergefell is the Democrats and the liberals in this country could not get the legal power to create same-sex marriage as an institution.
00:26:54.340 So they utilized brute force.
00:26:58.060 If we do not have a Supreme Court body or a political apparatus on the right that is willing to say, you can't do that, and they will allow the use of brute force politics, we lose.
00:27:13.540 And this country is—I mean, I'll put it this way.
00:27:18.400 Many people describe it as Republicans don't fight back.
00:27:20.560 Republicans don't use power.
00:27:21.720 Conservatives don't use power.
00:27:23.400 If every time the left, liberals, and Democrats use brute force, Republicans just say, well, it's wrong, so we won't, the left will win in the end.
00:27:34.280 You speak my language.
00:27:35.440 I've been preaching this for, you know, for 10, 15 years now.
00:27:38.320 I mean, how many times have we seen Republicans, conservatives fight with one hand tied behind their back?
00:27:43.060 I mean, maybe even two hands tied behind their back.
00:27:44.920 I mean, this happens time and time and time again.
00:27:47.460 One of my pet projects for the past 10, 15 years have been trying to overturn this when it comes specifically to the realm of courts and jurisprudence.
00:27:55.000 I have my whole own theory, actually, on constitutional interpretation, and I call it common good originalism, trying to kind of give a little more heft to conserve judges,
00:28:02.940 to feel a little more emboldened, to rule in line with principles of natural law and biblical truth and things like that there.
00:28:09.500 So I've really kind of thought this through and done the best that I can in my own capacity there.
00:28:13.760 But unfortunately, you know, institutional realities kind of just, they kind of just are what they are, unfortunately, there.
00:28:19.720 You know, I'll finish with that.
00:28:21.700 I don't want to interrupt you.
00:28:22.860 No, all I was going to say was the crazy thing is, and you're totally right on this, because they did do it with Dobbs.
00:28:28.820 They did do it in overturning Roe v. Wade 49 years after Roe v. Wade there.
00:28:32.960 And, you know, going back to Roe v. Wade, you even had a lot of very famously pro-abortion people.
00:28:39.960 Ruth Bader Ginsburg, actually, back when she was an ACLU lawyer, she famously said that Roe v. Wade went too far.
00:28:45.280 They didn't allow the democratic process to play out.
00:28:47.860 You know, when Obergefell was decided in 2015, it was around 35 states that had some sort of ban on same-sex marriage in their states.
00:28:55.320 So very similar.
00:28:56.140 It's very similar to Roe v. Wade.
00:28:57.560 The court dramatically oversteps there.
00:28:59.900 It's a very similar type thing.
00:29:02.160 But, you know, the whole LGBT cause has just achieved such cultural relevance and salience in modern American society and modern American culture there that I think a lot of people have been kind of cowed into obeisance and submission there and just so afraid to challenge it from either a policy or a legal perspective.
00:29:20.280 Maybe.
00:29:20.500 I mean, one point I've been making quite a bit.
00:29:23.880 South Park comes back with a bang, mocking Donald Trump.
00:29:27.000 And liberals came after me because I was upset with how they mocked Trump.
00:29:35.000 Now, were they—was I upset that Trump was insulted?
00:29:38.560 No.
00:29:38.960 The issue is they didn't make fun of Trump right.
00:29:42.700 They should have went harder on him over Epstein.
00:29:45.700 They could have challenged the issue of tariffs.
00:29:48.000 What did they do? 0.92
00:29:49.260 They said he was gay. 1.00
00:29:51.460 They said Donald Trump is a homosexual. 1.00
00:29:54.080 That's why you should laugh at him. 0.97
00:29:55.400 And I said, well, you know, OK, I guess if the left is now cheering on South Park, I'm going to refrain from saying the word just for the purpose of, you know, reach, I guess. 0.91
00:30:08.380 But the slur for homosexuals was used in that show several times as they mocked Trump for being a homosexual and liberals cheered for it. 1.00
00:30:17.820 So my attitude was if the play that the Democrat and liberal side is making now—because I'm not saying Matt and Trey did this with South Park—but it's that, ha-ha, Trump's gay, make fun of him for it. 0.83
00:30:29.760 But that is one of the biggest cultural victories the right has gotten in decades.
00:30:34.040 If now South Park is telling liberals to say slurs for gay people and that being gay is funny and to be made fun of, culturally, we may be shifting on this one.
00:30:47.360 And because the left in the liberal media apparatus has only existed to say whatever the right does is wrong, make fun of it, it created the perfect opportunity now.
00:30:58.680 When Matt and Trey come out and call Trump gay, the left cheers it on. 0.95
00:31:03.320 OK, well, now the culture has shifted. 0.98
00:31:06.020 Young kids are going to start dropping F-bombs again, and I mean the slur for gay people.
00:31:10.000 And when Obergefell does get overturned, it's going to be like, what did you expect?
00:31:14.480 Liberals abandon this because—so I actually, to what you were saying, I think you were right over the past 10 years, the pride stuff.
00:31:22.160 I think it's rapidly collapsing, rapidly.
00:31:25.080 Bud Light effect, man.
00:31:26.400 Bud Light and Target took such a beating over this.
00:31:29.120 I think we may see a big shift.
00:31:31.020 No, and there's some polling that strongly supports what you're saying, actually.
00:31:34.060 So I saw some polls, either Gallup or Pew or some major pollster, that showed the Republican support for same-sex marriage was 55% in 2021, around the time that Biden started.
00:31:45.640 And the year 2025 is now down to 41%.
00:31:48.300 So it's gone down quite a bit.
00:31:50.500 You know, if you look at Gen Z church attendants, one of the most church-attending religious generations over the past 100 years of American history.
00:31:57.200 So there definitely are some serious signs here.
00:32:00.900 Look, I think that Obergefell could be decided at some point.
00:32:04.760 I'm just looking at the current six right of certain justices.
00:32:08.880 I see Sam Alito, who has tremendous courage, tremendous conviction.
00:32:12.760 I see Clarence Thomas, who has tremendous courage, tremendous conviction.
00:32:15.820 I see John Roberts, who actually nailed this issue properly in 2015, but takes such a rigid view of started sizes that I see pretty much no chance.
00:32:22.820 And then I see Gorsuch, Barrett, and Kavanaugh, who my best guess would be they'd rather just not touch this thing with a 20-foot pole.
00:32:28.920 So that's kind of just how I see the breakdown.
00:32:30.960 We need people who aren't cowards.
00:32:33.680 Yes.
00:32:33.900 That's why, you know, my argument is I know that Thomas and Alito probably need to retire very soon because we want to make sure that the replacements are going to be of the same caliber.
00:32:45.480 I would say let's just—Christians, ignore this one time when we start cloning people, but we'll clone Clarence Thomas eight or nine times. 0.87
00:32:54.920 He can stay on the bench with his eight clones or just have nine fresh clones take over the whole thing.
00:32:58.620 He's the best.
00:32:59.260 I think he's been absolutely fantastic.
00:33:01.200 But we're out of time.
00:33:02.680 So, Josh, where can people find you?
00:33:04.660 Yeah, I appreciate it, Tim.
00:33:05.380 So I'm on xjosh__hammer, Instagram's joshbhammer, my show, The Josh Hammer Show.
00:33:09.840 And then my book that came out in March is called Israel and Civilization, The Fate of the Jewish Nation and the Destiny of the West.
00:33:15.740 Right on, man.
00:33:16.240 Thanks for hanging out.
00:33:16.820 We'll see you next time.
00:33:17.800 See you next time.
00:33:18.420 Take care.
00:33:20.500 That, of course, is Josh Hammer of the Article III Project and editor-at-large for Newsweek.
00:33:27.940 Oh, man, he's bumming me out.
00:33:29.380 He's bumming me out.
00:33:30.160 I'm so excited that—OK, listen, I'm a liberal guy.
00:33:33.440 And, you know, the one thing I want to add before we send you on your way to go hang out with Russell, I don't care all that much for gay—I don't care for or against gay marriage, right? 0.62
00:33:43.260 It's like, if you're gay and you want to get gay married or civil union or whatever, OK, fine, whatever.
00:33:48.380 It's whatever you do in your home. 0.71
00:33:49.820 Don't bring it into the schools. 0.74
00:33:51.420 The argument the left made was, oh, but what if someone's gay married? 0.99
00:33:54.120 They need to explain it to their students.
00:33:55.180 No, you don't.
00:33:56.240 You say, that's a private, personal thing.
00:33:58.200 It's not in the schools.
00:33:59.180 Don't do it.
00:33:59.880 But my issue with this is, they pass law without the legislative branch.
00:34:08.280 It is a violation of the democratic order they claim exists in this country and they purport to want.
00:34:15.940 When you say, instead of passing laws and winning votes, we will mandate, I say that is authoritarianism.
00:34:22.800 It is evil and must be reversed.
00:34:24.920 I wish we had a strong SCOTUS that would do it.
00:34:27.040 So, my friend, smash that like button.
00:34:29.520 Share the show with everyone you know.
00:34:32.580 I believe we've got Russell Brand getting ready to go live.
00:34:37.560 He's not.
00:34:40.520 Hey, they don't—who do we have coming up?
00:34:43.620 Let me see who we got in the old roster here.
00:34:45.680 If they don't send me who's live, I don't know who we're supposed to do this raid for.
00:34:49.660 Uh, I guess nobody?
00:34:52.820 Is anybody there?
00:34:54.260 What about V—I guess nobody.
00:34:56.660 I don't know.
00:34:58.000 I don't know who's live.
00:35:00.100 Uh, nope.
00:35:02.260 No idea.
00:35:03.380 All right.
00:35:04.020 Smash the like button.
00:35:05.720 I guess, uh, we'll wrap it up there.
00:35:08.340 You can follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast.
00:35:10.420 We are going to be back tonight at 8 p.m.
00:35:12.640 with Vince Dow at TimCast IRL.
00:35:14.580 You don't want to miss it.
00:35:15.380 And guys, join our Discord server.
00:35:18.020 Community is everything.
00:35:18.940 Our cafe is in the works.
00:35:20.440 It is currently being built.
00:35:21.620 It's just been—it's so hard to get these things done.
00:35:23.820 It's crazy.
00:35:24.300 I mean, it's bureaucracy.
00:35:25.100 It's regulation.
00:35:26.140 We want to make it so that you guys can come together.
00:35:30.180 And as automation starts breaking things apart and people start trying to exist in this digital space,
00:35:35.360 we have to be the counter-revolutionaries to the AI trend.
00:35:39.520 By all means, AI is coming.
00:35:40.840 Automation is coming.
00:35:42.160 But we will preserve the bonds and create a culture that keeps humans together.
00:35:46.840 All I can say right now is the Discord server exists.
00:35:51.400 There are friends.
00:35:52.180 People have gotten married.
00:35:53.200 They have meetups.
00:35:54.600 And that's what we want to create for you guys.
00:35:55.940 So check us out at TimCast.com.
00:35:57.760 Sign up.
00:35:58.540 Thanks for hanging out.
00:35:59.340 And we'll see you all tonight.
00:36:16.840 Let's see you next time.
00:36:18.360 See you next time.
00:36:19.000 Bye-bye.
00:36:24.280 Bye-bye.
00:36:26.720 Bye-bye.
00:36:34.340 Bye-bye.
00:36:35.040 Bye-bye.
00:36:35.220 Bye-bye.
00:36:35.880 Bye-bye.
00:36:37.680 Bye-bye.
00:36:38.180 Bye-bye.
00:36:38.500 Bye-bye.
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00:36:44.120 Bye-bye.