The Culture War - Tim Pool - TRUMP WAS RIGHT, Polls PROVEN To be Fake AGAIN In MASSIVE Midterm Scandal

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00:00:44.100 This week, Donald Trump stood on stage in Kansas and said the polls are fake.

00:00:49.840 The media treated it like a punchline.

00:00:52.360 CNN ran it as a fact check.

00:00:55.200 Then, a few hours later, a polling company went on X and confessed.

00:01:01.240 Wedgwood Polls says it was never a real polling firm.

00:01:04.840 It calls itself a social experiment meant to expose the vulnerabilities,

00:01:10.600 lack of oversight, and overall low barrier to entry in the polling industry.

00:01:15.780 In other words, they were making it all up.

00:01:19.580 They didn't come clean on their own.

00:01:21.020 A polling watchdog called 50 plus one got Wedgwood's raw data on October 15th, confirmed it was fraudulent and gave them until midnight to respond.

00:01:31.440 Wedgwood confessed before the story could run.

00:01:34.800 And these fake polls went everywhere into the New York Times polling tracker, which now has an editor's note saying every Wedgwood poll has been removed.

00:01:44.040 It landed on MSNOW, even Decision Desk HQ.

00:01:49.240 Newsweek even ran this headline off a Wedgwood poll.

00:01:52.680 Hyde-Smith, 52, column 48.

00:01:56.080 The Democrats' campaign used it to say the race was tied.

00:02:00.760 Look at the numbers.

00:02:01.980 Every one of them makes a Democrat look stronger.

00:02:05.380 It may have reached into the primaries too. 0.90

00:02:08.020 In June, a Wedgwood poll had Mallory McMorrow collapsing to 9% in the Michigan Senate primary.

00:02:14.740 Abdul El-Sayed went on to win, barely.

00:02:17.400 And this isn't the first time. In August, a firm called Median Strategies put socialist Francesca

00:02:24.300 Hong up more than 20 points in the Wisconsin governor's primary. She lost. Their website was

00:02:30.880 registered two days before the scandal broke. They had 23 followers on X. Their excuse? A short-term

00:02:38.900 social experiment. Two fake pollsters in two months with the same excuse and both pushed

00:02:45.620 progressive candidates. So now ask yourself, how much of this is real? Betting markets give

00:02:51.420 Democrats a 91% chance to take the House and 62% for the Senate. The generic ballot has Democrats

00:02:59.080 up about eight. But Steve Kornacki says those Democratic Senate leads are tenuous. If the

00:03:05.860 polls miss Trump voters by two or three points again, Republicans could keep Congress. In 2020,

00:03:13.700 The polls had Mike Espy within one point of Cindy Hyde-Smith.

00:03:18.620 He lost by 10.

00:03:20.280 The election is just 13 days out.

00:03:23.860 And the people telling you how it's going to go just found out

00:03:27.240 some of their numbers were invented.

00:03:30.840 And so the question is, are these intentional manipulations

00:03:34.900 to trick voters, to trick prediction markets?

00:03:39.420 And what does the early voting data actually show?

00:03:43.700 Because people are voting right now.

00:03:46.420 And the reality is, it's not looking that bad for Republicans.

00:03:52.060 The game is on.

00:03:54.580 And we have no idea what's going to happen next.

00:03:57.660 But now, let's break it all down.

00:04:05.300 Before we get started, my friends, make sure you head over to TimCast.com and click join now.

00:04:11.280 we can't do this without you. And there is a darkness right now over this country and we

00:04:17.800 must fight to stop it. Truth matters. And if you think the work that I do here is important,

00:04:24.000 then I need you to join us at Timcast because without you, none of this is possible. Only our

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00:04:35.640 hang out with tens of thousands of people in our discord, get uncensored content.

00:04:41.360 Now, let's get in to that news story.

00:04:44.320 This is wild to see, my friends.

00:04:46.820 It's all fake. 0.95

00:04:48.400 When Donald Trump comes out and says the polls are fake, they call him a liar.

00:04:52.200 We now have two polling firms proven to have been faking it.

00:04:56.400 And I'm going to go ahead and say conspiracy.

00:04:59.220 My presumption is that these institutions are pretending to be social experiments.

00:05:04.760 but the real goal is to manipulate the voters into believing Democrats are more popular than

00:05:10.920 they really are. But wait, the question is for what purpose? Political power or maybe money?

00:05:17.900 Check this out. There's this crazy story where a dude walks up to a thermometer in New York City

00:05:24.100 that is used to publicly display the temperature in the city, but you could make wagers on it.

00:05:31.180 There was a prediction market that it was like New York reaches at least 90 degrees today.

00:05:36.200 So homeboy shows up with a blow dryer and a battery, blasts the thing so that it jumps up to 95 degrees.

00:05:43.320 He wins his bet, cashes out, but was caught on camera.

00:05:47.320 So the question then becomes, are these polls being dropped so that people will wager on prediction markets and say, I think the Democrats going to win?

00:05:58.000 Look at it this way.

00:05:59.200 Dude comes up and puts $1,000 down for Democrats to win.

00:06:02.800 The prediction market, let's say it's 50-50.

00:06:05.680 They put out this article, this fake poll.

00:06:08.580 Instantly, everyone's, the New York Times, Newsweek, all these outlets are like, boom,

00:06:13.280 Democrats going to win.

00:06:14.480 And what do you get?

00:06:15.940 The prediction markets start going up as more people buy yes for Democrats.

00:06:20.220 Dude who then bought for the Democrats sells his shares at a profit.

00:06:26.200 And then we find out the polls were fake the whole time.

00:06:28.620 It could also be that there are political elements trying to do this because it will

00:06:34.400 influence voters.

00:06:35.520 But let's dive in and let's rip through the core facts of the case.

00:06:40.580 Newsweek, so glorious, retracted.

00:06:44.460 Democrat threatens historic Senate upset and deep red Mississippi.

00:06:48.560 Lord have mercy what these people are doing at these news outlets.

00:06:52.800 They're looking at a blog online and then being like, good enough for me.

00:06:57.180 They don't need citations or sources.

00:06:59.560 It's laughable.

00:07:00.500 Check this out.

00:07:02.060 Newsweek has retracted this article, which cited a poll from Wedgwood Polls.

00:07:06.700 Wedgwood Polls has said that its results were fabricated in what it described as a deception

00:07:11.780 intended as a social experiment to expose weaknesses in the polling industry.

00:07:16.440 Shenanigans, I say.

00:07:17.840 I don't believe that for two seconds.

00:07:19.880 All of these firms, we have two now, but how many others that are like, it's one big social

00:07:24.980 experiment?

00:07:25.560 Yeah, I don't believe it.

00:07:26.340 Take a look at this. Let's jump to our early voting data. Now, right now, NBC says across

00:07:32.640 the board, you got 32% Republicans, 51% Democrats. Okay. That's a shrug. Democrats tend to vote

00:07:39.240 more often early. When we look at the core in places like Texas, it's 50, 50. That ain't all

00:07:46.340 that bad. North Carolina, 44 to 56 favorable for Democrats for sure. But this is, this is early

00:07:53.400 voting. This is early voting. It's always going to skew Democrat. When we're looking at early

00:07:58.520 voting data, it's actually not that bad. And we thought North Carolina data was going to be

00:08:04.920 apocalyptic. In fact, so far it is. Who knows? Who knows? Here we go, baby. Media reports

00:08:14.580 national polling company admits it's totally fake crows. It was far too easy to get major

00:08:21.540 media outlets to bite. Now I'm going to say this, guys, I rely on many of these same outlets all

00:08:26.320 the same. I pull up the New York Times. I pull up real clear politics. And when they say these

00:08:31.800 are pollsters, I go, okay, we are all susceptible to this because we trust society. And I've

00:08:41.280 admitted this for a long time. We here at Timcast, we call it the corporate press every day. It's our

00:08:46.260 job. It's what we do, but I will be the first to admit you're a podcast listener, and this is a

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00:09:17.720 Much of this is not correct. And we even have stories from the same outlets contradicting each

00:09:22.060 other. My favorite, of course, will always be Politico reporting that Ukrainians interfered 0.80

00:09:27.620 in the 2016 election. And then like two years later, claiming that very story was Russian

00:09:33.260 propaganda, despite the fact they posted it and it's still up with no retraction.

00:09:38.500 Check this out.

00:09:39.220 Mediate says, a national polling company cited in numerous outlets, including the New York

00:09:43.500 Times and MSNOW, has revealed it made up its data, saying that doing so was far too

00:09:48.860 easy.

00:09:49.680 Wedgwood Polls made the shocking admission in an expo Tuesday night after 50 plus one,

00:09:55.000 which reports on polling, confronted them about credentials and data.

00:09:58.540 The polling industry needs major reform, the company said, alongside a lengthy statement,

00:10:04.220 to which we have for you right here.

00:10:05.760 For immediate release, press statement, and I'm going to go ahead and stress,

00:10:09.940 this is clearly AI-generated, or at least, you know, I've got an eye for AI-generated images.

00:10:15.860 Wedgwood Polling, an experimental project to demonstrate the vulnerabilities,

00:10:20.080 lack of oversight, and overall low barrier to entry in the modern political polling industry,

00:10:24.840 makes this public statement. Why we did this. Having previously worked in the polling and

00:10:29.400 research sector, we watched as the public's trust in polling eroded alongside a rise in

00:10:32.960 unverified, low-quality methodology. We wanted to test a simple hypothesis. How easy is it for

00:10:39.660 an entirely fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and expose how

00:10:44.680 little scrutinization exists in media and public commentary? The short answer, far too easy.

00:10:50.800 Despite having no history, formal credentials, or real data behind the vast majority of our releases,

00:10:56.440 Wedgwood polling was added to major polling aggregators, including the New York Times,

00:11:01.040 50 plus one and Vote Hub

00:11:03.180 and repeatedly treated

00:11:04.800 as a legitimate data source.

00:11:06.900 Yeah, I'm going to pause

00:11:07.540 on their statement right there.

00:11:08.480 50 plus one are the ones

00:11:09.640 who called them out.

00:11:11.200 Our fabricated numbers

00:11:12.800 were given instant credibility

00:11:14.620 across national media platforms,

00:11:16.400 including being cited on air

00:11:18.080 and in reporting by outlets

00:11:19.680 such as MS Now.

00:11:21.080 The ease with which

00:11:22.300 unverified figures were absorbed

00:11:24.280 into mainstream political narratives

00:11:26.160 highlights a systemic breakdown

00:11:28.180 in media vetting and data aggregation.

00:11:30.820 The scope of the project, the experiment.

00:11:33.660 Most data published under the Wedgwood polling name was generated to test whether media outlets,

00:11:38.600 aggregators, and commentators would report on data without verifying the source,

00:11:43.460 methodology, or underlying firm legitimacy.

00:11:46.220 The exception.

00:11:47.580 Out of curiosity and for our own internal baseline,

00:11:50.040 we did conduct one fully legitimate crowdfunded Nebraska poll during this run.

00:11:54.460 That single poll utilized standard rigorous methodology to give us a real baseline to

00:11:58.580 compare against synthetic data.

00:11:59.620 moving forward. Wedgwood polling was never intended to sway an election or permanently

00:12:04.600 mislead the public. It was designed as a wake-up call. If a fictional entity run by a small group

00:12:09.800 of industry veterans can be integrated into major polling averages and cited by major news

00:12:14.980 organizations, the standards for how polling data is vetted, aggregated, and reported must change.

00:12:20.160 We hope this experiment sparks a necessary conversation about data integrity,

00:12:24.320 media literacy, and accountability across the political research landscape.

00:12:30.620 Readers added context saying Wedgwood polls released this after 50 plus one contacted them

00:12:35.220 regarding evidence of fabricated poll data. They had shared fraudulent raw data the prior day

00:12:40.560 and raised crowdfunding for polls presented as legitimate. So this could be fraudulent.

00:12:47.540 This could be them raising money and stealing it from people. I mean, this is serious stuff.

00:12:51.740 If they were crowdfunding, but are now saying, oopsie, it was all fake.

00:12:54.900 It was an experiment.

00:12:56.080 You can't ask people for money under false pretenses.

00:12:59.640 That's textbook fraud.

00:13:01.180 They say our Nebraska poll was real.

00:13:04.740 Sure.

00:13:05.660 We will see, my friends.

00:13:07.580 We will see.

00:13:09.260 Geiger Capitals is absolutely incredible.

00:13:11.480 They faked the whole thing.

00:13:12.520 Take a look at this from Nate Silver.

00:13:15.260 Wedgwood polls showing El Syed was up.

00:13:18.060 This is nuts.

00:13:20.300 Wow.

00:13:20.780 Wow.

00:13:21.740 Town Hall says, remember when some were saying the polls were fake?

00:13:24.840 Well, this is quite the bombshell.

00:13:28.000 Indeed it is, my friends.

00:13:29.320 Take a look at this from W Bay going back to August.

00:13:32.540 Fake polling company shuts down after admitting Wisconsin, Nevada, California polls were fabricated.

00:13:38.980 They want you demoralized.

00:13:40.940 They want you to believe you cannot win.

00:13:43.520 But the whole thing is fake.

00:13:46.460 Now, let me just say, there are a lot of real polls out there.

00:13:49.760 I don't believe that Trump is doing all that well.

00:13:52.280 We can literally see the commentators who break from Trump and the support that they're getting.

00:13:57.560 I have questions about what the goal, the real goal is behind these.

00:14:01.020 But I will just simply say, Occam's razor.

00:14:04.080 I always default to Occam's razor.

00:14:05.980 Make the least amount of assumptions.

00:14:07.780 Yeah, a couple of companies popped up and said, we're going to screw with you.

00:14:12.820 And you want to know, I think that's probably the simple solution here.

00:14:15.860 Because it's something I'd consider doing.

00:14:18.300 Ragging on the media.

00:14:19.320 I mean, just the other day, I was having a discussion on AI stuff, and somebody posted

00:14:24.360 an image that AI was bad.

00:14:25.960 I posted an image of a similar image and put, didn't cost me a penny.

00:14:30.460 And everybody immediately reacted saying, that's terrible.

00:14:33.560 It's not good art.

00:14:34.440 The truth is, my image was human-made, and that was the point.

00:14:38.520 So trolling people in the media, I totally get.

00:14:42.140 That being said, it seems like a lot of energy for very little, and it will influence prediction

00:14:47.080 markets and the election.

00:14:48.740 So I do think there is a strong probability the real play here is to manipulate people

00:14:53.560 into voting in a way they otherwise would not.

00:14:57.560 Because unfortunately for us, the truth is people like to vote for who they think is

00:15:01.520 going to win, which is just weird and unfortunate.

00:15:05.380 But check this out.

00:15:06.160 A fake polling company that weighed in on the Democratic primary in Wisconsin has shut

00:15:10.400 down, calling its numbers, which showed Francesco Hong with more than a 20 point lead, part

00:15:15.160 of a social experiment.

00:15:16.960 Legitimate pollsters are responding as it raises questions about the vetting process for those sharing the data.

00:15:22.540 The fake polling company, which calls itself Median Strategies, has shut down its website after releasing three recent polls involving the Democratic primary in Wisconsin and two other races in Nevada and California, admitting the numbers were completely made up.

00:15:38.940 I think the first thing is it's not a poll, it's just fraud, said Charles Franklin, poll director for Marquette Law School.

00:15:44.440 You know, it's like everybody that runs into a fraud of some kind, it's pretty upsetting.

00:15:51.020 It's bad professionally, and it's also bad for readers and voters and the news media that somebody does this.

00:15:56.660 Well, my friends, it has now happened twice.

00:16:00.920 Take a look at this.

00:16:01.420 Mediaite even ran the story, too, back in August.

00:16:03.500 Polling company collapses.

00:16:04.880 They gave the Democratic Socialist a 23-point lead, and everyone believed it.

00:16:09.200 The question is, why are they doing it?

00:16:12.060 poll pushed by column claiming Senate race with Hyde Smith is tied was fake over and over and

00:16:18.860 over again. Look at this. Wedgwood polls previously said the Republican in Mississippi

00:16:23.420 was was a close race. Kansas Democrat, Texas Democrat, Michigan Democrat. All of these fake

00:16:30.860 polls seem to be promoting Democrats. Ravi's World, Substack. Last night, 50 plus one published 0.61

00:16:40.480 an extensive investigation into a polling firm named Wedgwood, alleging they fabricated their

00:16:45.620 data. Wedgwood responded, admitting they did in fact fake their data and claimed it was because

00:16:50.700 of a social experiment. Can we get this? It's hard to justify the explanation. If your goal

00:16:55.920 was to reform the system, you'd maybe run a few polls early in the cycle, then out yourself with

00:17:00.760 a series of recommendations. This firm published over a dozen polls across key races and seemed

00:17:06.420 likely to keep doing it until they got caught. They were included in many aggregators, including

00:17:11.340 the New York Times and Nate Silver. Growing businesses deal with the same problem. Too many

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00:17:22.100 all-in-one business management platform, fully integrated from sales and accounting to inventory

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00:17:32.940 you're in retail manufacturing or service odoo gives you one place to manage your business

00:17:38.060 visit odoo.com to book a demo it's odoo.com you can see just how much how much weight fake polls

00:17:46.940 had in skewing polling averages take a look at this insane it's also worth mentioning that when 0.93

00:17:52.680 confronted with evidence of their fraud the account wrote back f you holy crap i think

00:18:00.800 this is, this could be foreign actors making money on prediction markets. They say the firm

00:18:07.280 was founded by a Republican named Jack Sims and a Democrat named Andrew Prater. One of the reasons

00:18:12.220 they got, why they got away with this for so long, in fact, some somewhat experienced, one of the

00:18:17.900 reasons they got away with this for so long is that they were in fact somewhat experienced pollsters,

00:18:22.240 or at least that's what people seem to be saying. Here's Matthew Chapman. He said the whole reason

00:18:26.620 Wedgwood slipped through is that it was founded by two people with an actual history of real

00:18:30.500 polling work. It had all the hallmarks of a real, albeit startup, an untested polling operation.

00:18:36.460 That's the troublesome part. The New York responded saying, this page previously included

00:18:41.860 surveys from Wedgwood. On October 20th, they released a statement. We get it. Before adding

00:18:47.000 polls to its database, New York Times seeks to confirm the validity of all new pollsters.

00:18:50.760 In this case, the group answered a series of questions regarding the identities of the

00:18:53.740 pollsters, their methods they were using to draw their samples, contact respondents,

00:18:58.160 and weight their polls and the source of their funding. The group also responded to similar

00:19:03.220 vetting questions from 50 plus one and vote hub, both of which subsequently included Wedgwood's

00:19:08.640 releases in their trackers. They say another group did the same thing. We get it. Theories.

00:19:13.880 This is what I was saying. Make money. Check this out. So I found Wedgwood's Kalshi account.

00:19:19.500 He goes by Andrew and has been insider trading with fake polls that he was posting.

00:19:24.240 Kyle, she'd do something.

00:19:25.620 Wow, this is what I'm saying, my friends.

00:19:28.600 This is the first go-to.

00:19:30.600 Another person said,

00:19:31.460 I found potential insider trading Wedgwood bets here.

00:19:34.600 Interestingly, trades came two days

00:19:36.500 after the fake poll got posted,

00:19:38.140 which did in fact move the odds heavily in Fleming's favor.

00:19:41.540 So he somehow failed to insider trade?

00:19:44.380 Unless he necessarily wasn't.

00:19:46.480 I haven't seen enough to confirm this theory.

00:19:48.120 For one, the accounts,

00:19:48.780 this is coming from the writer, of course.

00:19:50.460 Posts that have not verified as coming from Wedgwood

00:19:52.300 any of they are.

00:19:52.880 I need to see the total volume. The next theory is to sway key races, and this I agree with as well,

00:19:58.620 because it creates a perception Democrats are winning, demoralizing Republicans.

00:20:03.760 Let's see if he has any other potential theories here, because I did this multiple times.

00:20:07.260 Foreign influence operation. This is an exciting theory, but I haven't seen anything to justify it.

00:20:12.800 But if you were a nefarious foreign actor, mucking up polling is a great way to make 0.96

00:20:16.600 your chosen candidates seem more viable, and your disfavored candidates less so. 1.00

00:20:21.100 It's a great way to also sow chaos.

00:20:23.720 I tend to think the simplest explanation is the most likely.

00:20:26.180 That favors the profit motive.

00:20:28.040 Though let's do a mental experiment before we go.

00:20:30.020 Pretend for a second the situation were reversed. 0.99

00:20:31.900 That Haley Stevens eked at a narrow win.

00:20:33.820 And we later learned that a poll showing up dual and single digits was completely fabricated.

00:20:37.740 And that the polling firm had fabricated other polls and favored the moderate candidates.

00:20:42.460 We'd have protests in front of the DNC and the New York Times.

00:20:45.820 However, we are the squishy centrists.

00:20:48.400 We will just write Substack posts and nudge journalists to look at it.

00:20:52.320 Then we'll get back to helping our candidates win the midterms.

00:20:55.060 All good and interesting theories.

00:20:57.300 But here's what I love.

00:20:58.980 Here's what I love.

00:21:00.160 The predictions from all the big players are all saying the same thing.

00:21:03.920 Trump's losing.

00:21:04.980 Trump's losing.

00:21:05.720 Oh, yeah.

00:21:06.260 Take a listen to this.

00:21:07.780 Look, 1.2, 1.1, 0.5.

00:21:10.640 So they are leads for Democrats, but they are tenuous as well.

00:21:14.080 I mean, these are states that Trump won by double digits two years ago.

00:21:17.840 And if there's anything about the Trump era that we know, it's that polling often undercounts these Republican Trump voters.

00:21:24.500 That's right. I mean, look, Republicans in the Trump era have gotten used to seeing polls like this in states like this and saying, got them just where we want them, because we've seen it in places.

00:21:32.960 Ohio, Iowa come to mind. Even if you could go back, there was a Senate race in Kansas in 2020.

00:21:38.240 Polls looked really promising for the Democrats. Republican ended up winning by double digits.

00:21:42.420 So that Trump vote's been missed before, doesn't always show up.

00:21:45.920 A lot of theories why.

00:21:46.920 But if that happens again, these numbers can change in a hurry.

00:21:49.960 What also is interesting is you talked about the blue states.

00:21:52.120 Let's go back to these are Democratic seats that the Democrats must hold on to.

00:21:56.600 And they're showing pretty tight races as well.

00:21:59.400 I mean, check this out.

00:22:00.300 Michigan, they might lose Michigan.

00:22:02.100 This is a major story.

00:22:03.300 Michigan's within the margin of error.

00:22:05.180 And we're learning now the polls they are using, at least some of them, are fabricated.

00:22:10.820 Now, imagine what this means.

00:22:12.420 Now, there's another theory here. What if it's Republicans putting out these fake polls to make it look like Democrats are stronger than they are, so it lulls them into a false sense of security? You can play it any way you want. We really don't.

00:22:23.060 Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, he leads in the polls basically by about three points. Very close right there. And the thing to keep in mind, El-Sayed, when he won the Democratic primary this summer, polls had him up by about 10 points or so. He ended up winning by a fraction of a point.

00:22:38.160 The polls overstated his support in the primary.

00:22:41.760 If that happens again here, that three could disappear.

00:22:44.560 And an eye on blue Minnesota.

00:22:47.060 But wait, my friends, there's more.

00:22:49.600 Another clip.

00:22:50.620 Jason Cohen says New York Times' Jeremy Peters warns MSNOW the polls may be missing.

00:22:56.640 Dems voting against Abdul El-Sayed.

00:22:59.700 This is MSNOW, by the way.

00:23:00.840 Check it out.

00:23:01.840 Well, so I grew up not far from where El-Sayed is from.

00:23:06.040 And one of the factors in this race that is really worth paying closer attention to are the number of Democrats, lifelong Jewish Democrats, especially in the Detroit suburbs, who are saying for the first time in their lives they're voting Republican.

00:23:23.140 That's a big deal.

00:23:24.640 I don't know of any other marquee race in the country right now where the Republican candidate is converting Democrats.

00:23:32.560 I mean, given the the overall environment for Trump, the economy, prices, the war, gas, gas, all that like it's it's very unusual and really quite striking that there are Democrats who are so concerned about their party's nominee that they're willing to vote for the candidate who's aligned with Donald Trump.

00:23:55.040 Now, there are there's a lot of money going in to court those voters to get them to turn out because they're obviously not going to be incredibly motivated to pull the lever, as it were, for a Republican candidate.

00:24:10.660 But what's interesting is the polling may not be picking that up because polling there's been a lot of concern that some of the polls in Michigan are oversampling college educated voters, which would overstate El Saeed's support.

00:24:24.640 but people also...

00:24:26.560 We get it.

00:24:27.320 And I want to add, yeah,

00:24:28.380 and I'll say it had fake polls as well.

00:24:32.040 New York Times reporter says,

00:24:32.780 the latest development in the Michigan Senate

00:24:33.960 race is a big deal and not good for the Dems,

00:24:36.740 which brings me to early voting data.

00:24:38.960 Right now, we're looking at 51% Democrats,

00:24:41.860 32% Republicans. 0.70

00:24:43.540 It always favors Democrats.

00:24:45.800 So the unknown right here,

00:24:47.260 the question of the 17% independent or other

00:24:51.440 is how they are going to vote.

00:24:53.120 So you add those 17 to Republican lean.

00:24:56.460 Let's say Republicans, let's say independents go two to one.

00:24:58.940 And you're looking at about, you know, I don't want to be, I don't want to, maybe let's just

00:25:03.400 say eight points, right?

00:25:05.200 Nine points.

00:25:06.040 Let's say nine.

00:25:07.080 Let's just put the Republicans at 40% with the independent vote.

00:25:10.800 Democrats are still taking a clear lead, but I must stress, my friends, mail-in voting

00:25:16.660 always favors Democrats.

00:25:18.260 And we don't know how Democrats are voting.

00:25:20.400 And that's the point from the previous clip.

00:25:21.580 many of these Democrats in Michigan might actually be voting against El Sayed. We don't know.

00:25:27.240 When we look at the 2026 primary early voting, it's not that bad. It really isn't. So we will

00:25:34.140 see how this plays out. The whole point for this segment, my friends, do not be discouraged and

00:25:41.360 don't count your chickens before they've hatched. We are learning now about fraud in the whole

00:25:46.860 system. We don't know what will happen. So get out and vote. My friends, this election day,

00:25:53.800 we're having a big party. We're going to be streaming all day at Timcast IRL. So make sure

00:25:59.240 you come and hang out. We have a whole rotation of guests. It's going to be a hoot. We're going to

00:26:04.880 be hanging out. People are going to be coming and going as we track all of the data for this

00:26:09.000 election. And we'll see just who was right. I still think it's fair to say that Democrats take

00:26:14.300 the house. I do. But now with another polling firm being proven to be fake, the truth is we

00:26:21.000 really don't know what's going to happen. We just don't. And I think a lot of these people are just

00:26:25.240 trying to make money off prediction markets. Imagine now if people put all their money on

00:26:28.920 Republican. Let me put it like this. You put your money on Republican. You run a bunch of fake polls.

00:26:34.740 Democrats go up. Republican goes down. You buy the dip on Republican at 30 percent, right?

00:26:39.900 Then it's revealed these pulses are fake. Republican spike. You sell it a profit.

00:26:44.300 There's dirty stuff happening, my friends.

00:26:46.100 Dirty, dirty stuff.

00:26:46.880 I'm going to wrap it up there. 0.96

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The Culture War - Tim Pool - October 21, 2026

TRUMP WAS RIGHT, Polls PROVEN To be Fake AGAIN In MASSIVE Midterm Scandal

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