The Culture War - Tim Pool - U.S. Says NUKING IRAN Is The Only Option, Should The US Intervene？ w⧸ Karys Rhea & Will Thibeau

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00:02:03.640 Shocking reporting has just come out.

00:02:06.520 First, the Goni reported the White House was not considering a nuclear strike on Iran.

00:02:11.480 However, according to Fox News, officials have said they have not ruled out using a nuke

00:02:15.860 and that all options are on the table.

00:02:18.080 According to the Daily Mail, Trump was briefed that the only way to destroy the Iran nuclear

00:02:23.080 facilities at Fordow would be to soften the ground with bunker busters and then drop a nuke,

00:02:28.340 to which Trump has reportedly said, yeah, we shouldn't do that.

00:02:31.980 So the assumptions are now that the reason Trump is saying he will wait and make a decision

00:02:36.400 within two weeks, the reason why he's meeting with Steve Bannon and calling Tucker Carlson is that,

00:02:41.080 one, it may be a big ask that we nuke Iran, but actually pull back and say, you know what,

00:02:46.960 we can do this with humans with boots on the ground.

00:02:50.000 But the reality is we just don't know for sure.

00:02:52.460 All we can do is sit back and wait and probably debate amongst ourselves as to what should be

00:02:57.260 done and what is currently going on.

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00:04:20.980 We got a couple people here to join us in this debate.

00:04:23.380 Ma'am, would you like to introduce yourself first?

00:04:24.820 Sure. I'm Karis Rhea.

00:04:26.820 Thanks for having me.

00:04:28.480 I'm a producer with the Epoch Times,

00:04:30.760 but nothing I say is maybe associated with them.

00:04:36.640 This is my personal opinion.

00:04:39.000 Right on.

00:04:40.140 Is that why you have that for the bugs?

00:04:43.540 No, the gavel was a gag someone gave to me,

00:04:45.480 but it was like a mosquito hawk just flew by.

00:04:47.240 I was going to whack it.

00:04:47.720 Oh, yeah, because I feel like there are better ways to...

00:04:50.000 I must intervene in this conflict between the bugs.

00:04:53.200 Yeah, and sir?

00:04:54.820 Who might you be?

00:04:55.460 Yeah, I'm Will Tebow, Army veteran, right on defense policy,

00:04:59.780 in particular for the Claremont Institute in Washington, D.C.

00:05:02.420 Thanks for having me, Tim.

00:05:03.160 This is great.

00:05:03.640 So all in favor of nuking Iran?

00:05:05.560 Can you show hands?

00:05:07.520 Nobody?

00:05:08.180 No.

00:05:08.700 Nobody wants to nuke Iran?

00:05:09.940 What do you think?

00:05:10.620 Do you think we should go into that country and remove their government

00:05:13.720 or blow up their nuclear facilities, or what do we do?

00:05:16.080 Well, I think what we should do depends on what we see unfold in the next few weeks.

00:05:23.040 I think it completely depends on the success of Israel's operation,

00:05:28.740 and I think it depends on what the Iranian people choose to do once the bombs start falling,

00:05:36.120 or stop falling, excuse me.

00:05:37.340 Um, so, you know, I don't, I don't, I don't pretend to be so arrogant to have the scenario

00:05:46.040 that we should absolutely commit to, regardless of how the facts on the ground change and how

00:05:53.180 the situation develops.

00:05:54.260 But are you in favor of regime change?

00:05:58.260 Depends what you mean by regime change.

00:05:59.780 Removing the Ayatollah and the structure of government from Iran?

00:06:02.180 From the top down?

00:06:04.120 America doing that?

00:06:05.620 No, I'm not in favor of that.

00:06:06.840 But you do want, like, but, I don't want to say you do, but would you just want to see

00:06:11.460 that structure of governance in Iran altered, you know, like they remove the Ayatollah

00:06:16.260 and they put something else in?

00:06:17.280 No doubt.

00:06:18.080 I mean, look, if it comes from the ground up, then why not?

00:06:21.960 I mean, if it comes from the people.

00:06:23.560 Oh, yeah, yeah.

00:06:24.120 I agree.

00:06:24.600 I mean, what do you, what do you think?

00:06:26.460 This is my broader concern with the discussion.

00:06:29.240 I think there's a real risk that the United States and Israel have different desired end

00:06:35.060 states from this conflict.

00:06:37.280 It's, President Trump has been pretty clear.

00:06:39.020 He doesn't want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.

00:06:41.220 I don't get the same kind of clarity from Israel, perhaps justifiably so, on what their

00:06:47.560 end state is from this operation, whether it be to eliminate the Iranian ballistic missile

00:06:53.220 program, eliminate the nuclear threat permanently, or perhaps, more broadly, regime change.

00:06:59.500 I think if the United States intervenes militarily with Israel and they have different end states,

00:07:06.100 that is a recipe for escalation, regardless of the first step the United States takes to intervene.

00:07:13.200 And so we've got to figure this out.

00:07:15.120 I see a lot of people, they don't like the title that the U.S. says nuking Iran is the only option.

00:07:20.760 Let me show you the chain of events here.

00:07:22.120 We have this from Mediaite first.

00:07:23.900 White House denies Trump ruled out using a tactical nuke on Iran, Fox's Heinrich reports.

00:07:29.800 Okay, well, you know, denying they ruled it out doesn't mean he wants to do it, right?

00:07:35.280 Well, we have this from The Guardian.

00:07:37.700 Trump cautioned on Iran's strike linked to doubts over a bunker buster bomb, officials say.

00:07:42.660 There's been numerous reports that the bunker busters don't even have the capability to

00:07:46.820 penetrate Fordow.

00:07:48.080 And the argument is, Iran intentionally built a nuclear facility where they knew even U.S.

00:07:53.580 bunker busters would have a difficult time penetrating.

00:07:56.020 And then we have the ongoing live feed from the Daily Mail.

00:07:58.440 Donald Trump is believed to have backed down from military action against Iran, paving

00:08:02.380 the way for diplomatic talks, after realizing that a nuclear strike may have been the only

00:08:06.360 way to completely destroy the buried Fordow enrichment plant.

00:08:09.440 The president is said to have told defense officials it would only make sense for the

00:08:13.120 U.S. to join Israel if its bunker buster bombs are guaranteed to be able to destroy the

00:08:18.020 key enrichment site, according to people familiar with the discussions.

00:08:21.420 Officials were said to have been told the U.S. would have to soften the ground with conventional

00:08:25.140 bombs before dropping a tactical nuclear weapon from a B-2 bomber to completely destroy the

00:08:30.880 site, believed to be some 90 meters underground.

00:08:34.520 But Trump is said to have ruled out nuking Iran, insiders told The Guardian.

00:08:38.600 The possibility was said not to have been raised by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth or Chairman

00:08:42.540 of the Joint Sheets of Staff, General Dan Cain, during recent meetings in the Situation Room.

00:08:46.780 Fox News then reported the White House has refuted the entire Guardian report, indicating the

00:08:51.080 use of a nuclear weapon had not yet been ruled out.

00:08:53.940 The future of the region hangs in the balance as diplomats scramble to find another solution.

00:08:57.860 There's been an ongoing conversation about whether or not the bunker busters will even

00:09:01.120 work.

00:09:02.000 Jack Posobiec went into great detail on the battle, I believe it's called the BDA, the

00:09:06.300 Battle Damage Assessment, and that the bunker busters are lower yield bombs but designed

00:09:11.180 to penetrate.

00:09:12.260 So they'll break through the concrete before detonating, in which case, I believe it's 90 meters,

00:09:18.140 it's about 300 feet, you would need multiple concurrent strikes of bunker busters to hit

00:09:23.300 it.

00:09:23.940 Well, and they'd have to hit in the same exact spot.

00:09:26.300 In the crater, right.

00:09:27.240 A bunker buster only penetrates to 200 feet before it can explode.

00:09:32.680 So at least two.

00:09:33.460 Right.

00:09:33.840 You need at least two.

00:09:35.680 And they're precise, but it poses, I think, part of the conundrum that many who are hoping

00:09:41.900 President Trump reconsiders military action, because if we take a strike at the Fordo nuclear

00:09:47.700 facility, for example, and it doesn't work, we have still initiated combat action.

00:09:53.360 We've initiated physical participation, offensive war against Iran that makes the 40,000 Americans

00:09:59.300 in the region and all our military assets a target, a frankly legitimate target for Iranian

00:10:04.620 retaliation.

00:10:05.360 And we've done all that without disabling their primary nuclear facility.

00:10:11.700 But there's not 40,000 people right now.

00:10:14.100 I mean, Trump has already started removing unnecessary troops.

00:10:20.280 He took out all the planes at Al-Udeid.

00:10:23.020 I don't think they're all gone.

00:10:24.220 I mean, there are-

00:10:24.840 He had the ships leave the harbor.

00:10:26.800 There are over 1,000 American soldiers in Syria, 4,000, I think, still in Iraq.

00:10:32.320 So, you know, whether it's 40,000 or 4,000-

00:10:35.400 There's definitely a risk.

00:10:36.840 Yeah, 40,000.

00:10:37.820 There's 40,000 on any given day in the region.

00:10:42.200 But what I'm saying is that Trump has already removed, we don't know how many, but he's

00:10:47.480 already started evacuating some of those troops.

00:10:50.620 And to be fair, that does include Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt-

00:10:56.160 Bahrain.

00:10:56.740 Bahrain, Qatar.

00:10:58.000 All within range of-

00:10:59.560 Yeah, but you think Iran's going to start bombing Qatar?

00:11:03.900 No, but this is my point.

00:11:05.720 We don't know what happens in the event of an escalation.

00:11:09.340 I deployed to Iraq twice, and our kind of main station was at a base in northern Iraq

00:11:16.100 where on a clear day I could see the mountains of northwest Iran.

00:11:19.980 And so, again, there are thousands of American soldiers within that range.

00:11:25.360 That's well within ballistic missile range, probably wouldn't even take a ballistic missile.

00:11:29.780 And so my point is, okay, perhaps it's not 40,000 Americans directly at risk of retaliation,

00:11:34.520 but how many is too many?

00:11:36.440 Sure.

00:11:36.860 And that's something to consider.

00:11:38.880 Sure.

00:11:39.320 I would push back on this idea that Iran, just because they are a very large and mountainous

00:11:48.320 country, and they have a very sophisticated population, highly educated, civilized, that

00:11:54.880 they are anything other than a paper tiger, which we have seen again and again.

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00:13:00.400 And why would the United States need to get involved?

00:13:03.000 They can't even, look, as long as Israel has the skies right now, like, and they are, they can't even get a plane off the ground except like the three that they've managed to get off the ground to flee the area.

00:13:17.040 You think that America cannot defend itself against an air attack from Iran?

00:13:24.420 I mean, this, to me, that's just so ridiculous.

00:13:27.120 Like, the air superiority of America is just, it's astronomically more than what Iran is.

00:13:35.140 Do you understand the backwards logic here?

00:13:37.120 You're saying that Iran is a paper tiger, so America need not fear retaliation.

00:13:43.980 But at the same time, they are such a formidable military threat that Israel needs our offensive military assistance in order to defeat the threat that Iran poses.

00:13:55.780 There's multiple things there, not all of those things I said, but I'm just saying that how threatening Iran actually is has to be part of the conversation.

00:14:07.140 It can't just be like, will they retaliate or not?

00:14:09.480 Of course they're going to retaliate.

00:14:10.720 But what has to be involved in the conversation is their capabilities.

00:14:14.700 And the best way to measure that is to look at past actions that they have taken, like the October, you know, 2024 ballistic missile attack, even seeing how they've just responded in the last, like, seven days to Israel.

00:14:27.380 I mean, yes, of course, they've gotten, they've caused a lot of damage throughout Israel.

00:14:31.400 Yes, there have been 400, 450 missiles that have gone through and, like, you know, a thousand drones that they shot and none of which reached Israeli airspace.

00:14:39.260 None of the drones did, you're saying?

00:14:42.060 None of the drones did, yeah.

00:14:43.440 But these ballistic missiles, the amount that they have been sending, have been drastically decreasing with each day.

00:14:50.220 Why do you think that is?

00:14:52.560 We don't know for sure.

00:14:54.640 You're asking why is Iran decreasing the amount of missiles that it's firing?

00:14:57.840 Yeah, it's because they either don't have enough missiles, so they're trying to conserve them.

00:15:01.460 Israel estimates they have, like, a thousand or something like that.

00:15:03.800 Or it's because they can't get them off the ground because they don't have enough launchers.

00:15:07.860 One of the arguments that's been made is that Iran's intentionally using lower-yield rockets so that they can burn out the Israeli interceptors before launching an actual salvo of destructive ballistic missiles mid-range.

00:15:25.000 The Wall Street Journal reported today that Israel has depleted almost 60% of their air defense assets.

00:15:31.320 It's easier to shoot a missile than it is to shoot down a missile.

00:15:33.820 And so any decision based on our expectations of the Iranian missile supply, I think, is hubristic.

00:15:44.800 Well, not just that, sorry to interrupt, but China just flew three cargo planes into Iran.

00:15:50.580 Yeah, but that could be humanitarian for all we know.

00:15:52.820 We have no idea what's in there, and until anybody has any evidence in terms of what those planes contained, then I'm not going to think that China is going to come to Iran's rescue.

00:16:04.300 I mean, China has been laying low.

00:16:05.600 They've already, like, implied that they want nothing to do with this.

00:16:08.620 That's not material to the point that's being made in that we are wondering why Iran hasn't launched a larger barrage of higher-yield mid-range missiles.

00:16:17.680 And the things to consider tactically would be China's shipping something, and we don't know what that is.

00:16:22.560 That's a concern.

00:16:23.260 If Iran is launching these mid-range, lower-yield missiles, the strategy is fairly obvious.

00:16:30.020 I'm a layman, you know, and just watching Fox News, and we had an interview with a guy on the show the other day.

00:16:35.620 They're saying, well, obviously, no one's going to launch their stronger warheads knowing Israel's loaded with interceptors, but interceptors are very expensive.

00:16:43.120 So likely what Iran's going to do is they're going to choose a medium-yield so they can save the more powerful rockets, burn down some of the interceptors, hope they penetrate that air defense with some strikes that actually will freak people out.

00:16:57.040 They don't want to go—this is what we were told by an expert in the region—they don't want to use low-yield because when they do break through, there won't be enough damage, and people will just be like, oh, this is weak.

00:17:07.960 And then, you know, Israel might restrain themselves on how many interceptors they begin using.

00:17:12.160 But if a couple break through and they're strong enough and the impacts are—and they've been pretty devastating, Israel's going to ramp up its interceptors concerned about the strength of these rockets.

00:17:21.260 Then once Israel depletes the majority of its rockets, Iran will launch a full salvo of high-yield, mid-range ballistic missiles to actually start causing massive damage in urban areas.

00:17:31.180 Maybe I'm wrong.

00:17:32.080 Well, to my mind, the burden of proof should be on those who want U.S. military intervention in some form or fashion.

00:17:40.200 I think there's a reasonable chain of events that would lead to even a limited strike of a bunker buster, let's say, or two bunker busters, precipitating a broader engagement because Iran would, I think, necessarily retaliate, and the United States would necessarily retaliate in the event that Americans are killed or American assets are threatened.

00:18:01.880 And then you have a path towards regime change, whether or not the United States wanted to march down that path in the first place.

00:18:11.100 There is, you know—and to my mind, that's why I don't find the helpful distinction between, you know, this chain of, oh, well, we should support Israel because it's their fight.

00:18:20.560 Right. Oh, well, let's help them with limited strikes. And now it is—

00:18:24.520 It's not their fight. Wait, what? No. Are you kidding?

00:18:28.760 Is it not Israel's fight?

00:18:29.860 Well, of course. But are you saying it's not America's fight?

00:18:33.780 Is it America's fight?

00:18:35.020 I mean, factually, it's not our fight right now.

00:18:36.840 I would disagree with that.

00:18:39.400 We are not participating.

00:18:40.460 Why would you disagree?

00:18:41.540 Well, because as the IRGC has stated many times, death to America has not merely been a slogan or a chant, but a governing doctrine that since 1979, we have seen them carry out from the first moment that they took our hostage—

00:19:01.740 that they took our diplomats and our Marines hostages for 444 days, and the IRGC bragged about it, then going to the 80s with the, you know, the 241 servicemen that they killed in the Beirut barracks bombing the year after that when they mutilated and tortured CIA station chief William Buckley, not the National Review guy, and then William Higgins.

00:19:29.300 They're not the good guys.

00:19:30.380 Okay, but that's just scratching the surface.

00:19:33.920 Then let's go—that's just what they've done to us in the region, in the Middle East.

00:19:38.180 Then let's go to the Western Hemisphere and look at what they've been doing in Latin America.

00:19:43.840 Look at them sending UAVs to Venezuela.

00:19:46.220 Look at them, the reports that they've been trying to dig underground tunnels from Mexico into the United States like they did in Syria and Lebanon and Gaza.

00:19:56.920 Look at the fact that they have dozens, if not hundreds, of sleeper cells here in America, which if you read like Todd Benzman's work or listen to him, he has documented this extensively.

00:20:06.500 There's nobody who's done better fieldwork on this than Todd Benzman and the fact that they essentially have been wreaking havoc on the region of Latin America strictly so that they can position themselves in a region that they know they have turned hostile to the United States.

00:20:26.020 I mean, there's a reason why they're working with the Mexican drug cartels and the Colombian drug cartels.

00:20:30.100 If that threat is as existential and absolute as you present, then I think it begs returning to the original question of if regime change should be the goal of America.

00:20:42.440 That's why I find it almost a bit disingenuous to say there is such an option as a limited strike because you just went through decades of evidence that paints Iran, even though you said they're a paper tiger, as a nation that could supposedly threaten the continental United States.

00:21:02.400 To me, it's like, which is Iran this paper tiger that we must confront in order to preserve the interests of the American people?

00:21:12.400 Or are they a paper tiger that we can handle with a few bunker busters and the Israelis doing the rest?

00:21:18.320 Sure. OK, well, two things. Instead of presuming what my views are, feel free to ask.

00:21:23.080 But second of all, what I mean by Iran is a paper tiger is precisely what makes them such a threat in these realms that I said.

00:21:33.720 They're not going to be necessarily as big, I don't believe, but I could be wrong, a military threat because of, like I said, their past actions and the fact that I don't believe that they have the military capacity to essentially go up against the United States.

00:21:50.660 But that is precisely why they use proxies. That is precisely why they are trying to essentially co-opt other governments and regimes and brainwash them and support them so that they can do Iran's dirty work because Iran does not have the capacity to do it by themselves.

00:22:12.340 I honestly don't know which governments they're co-opting. I'm sure they're subversive.

00:22:18.100 Bolivia?

00:22:18.620 Yeah. Yeah. So let's confront the co-option of the Bolivian government.

00:22:23.980 I agree. We've got to invade China.

00:22:27.840 China's been doing it tenfold.

00:22:29.360 Well, there's no limiting principle to this theory, right? Because North Korea has been talking about wiping off America from the face of the earth for many decades.

00:22:39.100 And they also have nuclear weapons now, a few dozen perhaps.

00:22:43.380 There's a big difference. And nobody wants to say it.

00:22:47.140 China's got nukes.

00:22:47.960 There's a big difference between China and North Korea and Iran. Do you know what it is? It's one word.

00:22:53.540 Islam, perhaps?

00:22:54.960 There you go.

00:22:55.420 So communism, as evil as it is, they're atheists, man.

00:23:04.420 They have some sort of sobering idea that makes them understand the risks that their country is going to get nuked to hell.

00:23:12.460 Why do you think the Soviet – why do you think that mutually assured destruction worked in the Cold War?

00:23:18.220 It was because the Soviet Union understood the actual implications of a nuclear world.

00:23:26.600 Iran are – these people are – this is the thing that like – no – this is actually really the thing that the non-interventionists don't want – non-interventionists don't want to like really dig into.

00:23:39.220 And I would love to have that conversation with them.

00:23:43.980 So given this threat – real quick.

00:23:46.300 The fact that this regime is a Shiite supremacist like – you know – they're fanatical.

00:23:57.500 You're saying that Iran is not a rational actor. That's the phrase I believe that defines – we define countries as rational actors or – this was – this was – Mike Durant was talking to us.

00:24:06.320 When we do threat assessment, we say, is this nation a rational actor, meaning would they fear being wiped off the map?

00:24:14.040 And the argument is that Iran could go either way.

00:24:15.880 A hundred percent. That is what I'm saying.

00:24:17.720 Because Iran actually really is trying to like resurrect the like 600 AD battle of Karbala or whatever it's called, right, to essentially usher in the 12th Shia imam or whatever.

00:24:31.780 Like this – this is part of their entire political revolutionary doctrine.

00:24:38.620 You cannot separate the religious fundamentalism from any of their political or military decisions. You just can't.

00:24:47.720 So then what is it worth for America to end this threat?

00:24:52.800 If this threat –

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00:25:49.560 Now, back to your regularly scheduled listening.

00:25:53.880 The threat that you just laid out exists.

00:25:58.500 What is the cost that Americans should be willing to pay to eliminate the threat?

00:26:03.060 The cost in terms of money or the cost in terms of servicemen or civilians?

00:26:09.440 Blood and treasure.

00:26:10.440 Blood, blood, treasure.

00:26:11.980 Bandwidth.

00:26:12.780 I mean it depends.

00:26:13.320 What should we do?

00:26:15.100 If this threat is so all-consuming.

00:26:17.440 What should we do depends on what happens in the next four days.

00:26:21.900 Now, I can tell you possible things that could happen, and then I could tell you what I think we should do if each of those things happen.

00:26:27.760 I don't have – like do I think – like you said at the beginning of this conversation, does anybody want America to nuke Iran?

00:26:35.960 Of course I don't want America to nuke Iran.

00:26:38.200 But look, if people want to call me like a war hawk or a warmonger or a neocon, go right ahead.

00:26:45.140 But I do not have any problem saying that depending on how the situation escalates, that I would not take that off of the table.

00:26:55.880 Nuking Iran.

00:26:56.600 Yeah.

00:26:57.000 I mean to be fair, I mean the option of nuking anybody is always on the table, and that's why I think Trump denied it.

00:27:03.060 I think the possibility, the probability of Trump nuking Iran is 0%.

00:27:06.000 But you'd be insane to be like, we will never nuke anybody no matter what.

00:27:10.380 That's dumb.

00:27:11.300 Like if Iran actually said, you know what, we've already enriched uranium, we've got dirty bombs, we're dispatching them, and nuclear war is now, the U.S. is going to retaliate and say, okay, then we're taking out 4-0 right now by whatever means necessary.

00:27:22.840 And I think even Tucker was saying that if they are actively trying to kill Trump, then he would be in favor of bombing the hell out of their country.

00:27:29.640 I know if, yeah, Farhad Shaqari doesn't exist.

00:27:33.600 Yeah, I did find it funny that Iran has publicly stated they want to kill Trump.

00:27:37.700 Well, not only that, there have been at least three indictments.

00:27:44.120 The guy, the guy who ordered, first of all, the guy who ordered-

00:27:47.700 That was based off of a phone interview with a guy who is in Iran.

00:27:51.900 Farhad Shaqari, who's in Iran, who used to be in our prisons, who was in American prisons.

00:27:56.840 Right, but he's in Iran, he's not.

00:27:58.240 Now he's in Iran.

00:27:59.300 And we don't, he told us that the IRGC told him to go kill Trump.

00:28:03.440 Well, not just Trump, other people as well.

00:28:05.380 Right, but there's not, and that's a bad thing.

00:28:08.660 And he was the second, he was the second, he was the second person that they linked to an assassination attempt on Trump.

00:28:15.640 And I mean, it's so ridiculous that this is considered like a hypothetical to me.

00:28:20.200 I mean, like, this is so, because if you look at-

00:28:22.860 Well, but I think to Tim's point-

00:28:23.580 If you look at what the IRGC has done in the rest of the world, look at what they've done in the UK.

00:28:28.740 Look at, I mean, they, their assassination attempts and espionage-

00:28:33.060 What have they done in the UK?

00:28:34.020 I honestly don't know.

00:28:34.660 Oh my God, Iran is like, I mean, the way that Iran has infiltrated the UK has made, I mean, you can even look at like David Lammy's like recent comments on them.

00:28:47.420 They are a like level four, like emergency threat in terms of how they are trying to destroy that country from within.

00:28:56.480 Well, but okay, if you remove the IRGC and all of their influence from the UK, the UK would still have a lot of problems from-

00:29:04.200 No doubt.

00:29:04.640 For world migration.

00:29:05.540 A hundred percent.

00:29:06.380 I think, but we need to return to the original question.

00:29:09.420 And this is why I'm not necessarily convinced by the arguments to warrant the United States taking military action to help Israel.

00:29:17.600 Because if it's true that all they need is a few bombs dropped on Fordow, but that this threat is so vast and multidimensional, then that's the least we should do.

00:29:31.440 And that's also irrelevant to this threat, this extensive threat.

00:29:35.120 So then, but then I think to be honest-

00:29:36.960 That's a good point. I'd love to respond to that.

00:29:38.120 Well, look, can I show this real quick?

00:29:39.880 This is from Iran International, 2023.

00:29:43.260 IRGC commando repeats threat to kill Trump and Pompeo.

00:29:46.360 I remember this story.

00:29:48.120 It was really big after the killing of Soleimani.

00:29:50.100 Iran was like, we will get revenge.

00:29:51.860 We will kill Trump.

00:29:52.480 I thought this was, you know, fairly common.

00:29:53.960 And they say that Amir Ali Hadja Zadeh, the head of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, spoke of Iran's often repeated threat to avenge the killing of Qasem Soleimani, Tehran's top military intelligence operator in the Middle East, saying we are looking.

00:30:08.140 He went out to give a threat that he wanted to kill Trump.

00:30:10.440 And then you just pull up this guy's Wikipedia page, and he died on the 13th.

00:30:14.180 You know how?

00:30:14.860 He was killed in those strikes.

00:30:15.780 You know how?

00:30:16.700 Yeah, he was killed.

00:30:18.200 Yeah, yeah.

00:30:19.740 Israeli airstrike in June of 2025.

00:30:21.880 So, I thought this was, you know, this is not a statement of what the U.S. should or should not do, but the argument that Iran's top officials were like, we will have revenge for the killing of Soleimani, I thought was fairly common knowledge.

00:30:35.160 And I really, I really don't, I really think that if you take Islam out of the equation, then we would be having an entirely different conversation, and I think that's the conversation that I see most people having.

00:30:47.960 So, Karis, are you willing to accept a diplomatic solution to this conflict that leaves Khomeini in charge of the country?

00:30:58.080 A hundred percent.

00:30:59.440 However, I believe that if that diplomatic solution allows for any sort of future, like in 20 years, if Iran can develop another bomb, which is a very real possibility with a diplomatic solution.

00:31:17.920 What do you mean another bomb?

00:31:18.840 If they are able to enrich uranium to 60% purity, you know, at the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material and have 400 kilograms of, you know, of uranium again, then to me, I think that just shows that we were naive.

00:31:38.220 However, however, if that doesn't happen, then yes, a diplomatic solution is a hundred percent the right way to go.

00:31:46.400 It just depends how much you can, you are prepared to, to verify and to, and to essentially keep your guard up.

00:31:55.840 But I want to just address a point you made about, you know, uh, before, which is a really good point that if they're already such a threat, like, um, uh, you were saying, I can't even remember the point you were making, but in response, I wanted to say that you were actually.

00:32:14.180 Well, if Iran is such a threat, then it doesn't make it make sense to make a deal or to do limited airstrikes.

00:32:20.520 Right.

00:32:20.820 It makes sense to do whatever it takes to nuke them or to facilitate a regime change.

00:32:25.160 And I think that's exactly why I think that should also be on the table.

00:32:27.640 I think that all those solutions should be on the table.

00:32:29.620 Look, if Iran actually surrenders, not as ready to negotiate, not as ready to, you know, um, pause their nuclear program and shut the doors.

00:32:42.960 What do you mean by surrender?

00:32:43.760 The actual surrender, give up their thousands of centrifuges.

00:32:47.900 Okay.

00:32:48.380 Destroy them, destroy their, their, their centrifuge.

00:32:52.060 What?

00:32:52.340 How would you know if they did?

00:32:53.380 Well, they could, it would have to be overseen by the IAEA or.

00:32:56.760 So, so you're, you're, you're, you're saying like foreign security forces in some capacity would need to physically enter Iran and then oversee the actions that they're taking.

00:33:07.220 Yeah, that's what the IAEA does.

00:33:08.920 What if they have secret facilities no one knows about?

00:33:11.140 Well, that's a very real possibility.

00:33:12.640 And that's why, um, uh, they essentially need to have a level of, um, of transparency.

00:33:21.180 That to me is very, very, very difficult to get, which makes the diplomatic solution very difficult to achieve.

00:33:28.580 They might have centrifuges in other places, but I mean, we know that they, I mean, the whole reason they, they, that Fordow is, is 300 feet underground is precisely because it was covert.

00:33:41.500 And it was in violation of the, of the, um, the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, treaty, treaty, which the IAEA found.

00:33:47.940 And because they, and they don't want to get bombed by.

00:33:50.500 They wanted to specifically.

00:33:51.800 They wanted to specifically.

00:33:51.820 The 57s.

00:33:52.720 Exactly.

00:33:53.220 It was, it was literally because they knew about bunker busters and they said, we have to build it in such a, in such a way that the U.S. cannot do anything about it.

00:33:58.600 We destroyed Iraq's nuclear facilities in 1991 because they were above ground, which was the impetus for them to build Fordow 300 feet under the earth.

00:34:07.480 Yeah, exactly.

00:34:08.280 There was deep investigation.

00:34:09.380 There was, there was a, there was a deep investigation into their nuclear program.

00:34:13.040 Of course, of course they would want to do it in secret because they want to have a nuclear bomb.

00:34:17.780 What's the threat of Iran having a nuclear bomb?

00:34:20.480 Uh, the threat to the world, the threat to America, the threat to Israel.

00:34:25.320 I mean, well, first of all, talk about like, if we're talking about like, uh, you know, blood and treasure, right.

00:34:34.620 And the cost that that would, that a nuclear Iran would like the actual dollar cost of a nuclear Iran on America.

00:34:43.180 It is, I mean, I haven't done the calculations.

00:34:45.940 But why?

00:34:46.400 Like what's going to happen?

00:34:48.020 Maritime routes, transcontinental infrastructure.

00:34:51.600 You try to get, you try to get insurance.

00:34:53.560 What happens?

00:34:54.160 You try to get insurance and risk models after there is a nuclear Iran in the region.

00:34:58.800 Are you kidding me?

00:34:59.620 But why?

00:34:59.980 What are you saying they're going to do?

00:35:01.820 Because the, well, first of all, there's going to be an arms race.

00:35:04.060 I mean, they've said it.

00:35:05.000 Saudi Arabia has said it.

00:35:06.540 Pakistan's got it.

00:35:07.140 The UAE has, has said it.

00:35:09.400 I understand.

00:35:10.520 But so this increases the cost of things like insurance and the region, right?

00:35:14.820 When, when you're doing, when you create, um, you know, uh, risk model, models, right.

00:35:20.600 For activities.

00:35:22.080 Okay.

00:35:22.720 Are you saying Iran is going to nuke people?

00:35:26.740 Oh, well, a hundred percent.

00:35:28.140 Well, you just said, are they going to, you said you didn't care about Israel.

00:35:31.040 So I was, no, I said, I said, I don't care about the world.

00:35:33.380 I only care about Israel.

00:35:34.600 That was a joke.

00:35:35.100 Oh, I thought you said, I don't care about Israel.

00:35:36.340 No, you said he only cares about Israel.

00:35:38.480 I mean, do I believe they're going to nuke Israel?

00:35:40.640 A hundred percent.

00:35:41.640 But look, I'm trying to, that's the question because everybody.

00:35:44.200 Do I believe that?

00:35:44.760 I believe a hundred percent they will.

00:35:46.020 Because I believe when somebody says they want to kill you.

00:35:48.240 Oh, like, look at like North Korea.

00:35:50.080 Like this is, this is a huge, this is a perfect example.

00:35:53.000 Okay.

00:35:53.400 Does North Korea, does North Korea have nuclear weapons?

00:35:56.980 Of course they do.

00:35:57.860 Is North Korea an ally of Iran and an enemy of America and an ally of China and, and, and,

00:36:02.940 and Venezuela and all of those rogue stakes?

00:36:04.860 Yes, of course.

00:36:05.760 But again, North Korea, it does not have a, a, a, a, um, an annihilationist, um, dominant,

00:36:15.540 like, uh, uh, um, expansionist goal that Iran has.

00:36:20.900 North Korea wants America destroyed.

00:36:24.020 You don't think North Korea wants to own the entire Korean peninsula?

00:36:26.460 I think they want to own the peninsula.

00:36:28.480 I think that's as far as it goes.

00:36:29.840 Well, so then why haven't, I actually, if you have regional and bit, if you have regional

00:36:34.000 ambitions, you also have to know your, um, know your own capability, right?

00:36:40.040 And so we can kind of trust North Korea to know that, but because Iran has all of these

00:36:44.700 proxies and because that's coupled with these, these, um, dogmatic, dogmatic, religiously

00:36:51.340 fundamentalist ambitions, they actually, um, believe that they can carry out a complete

00:36:58.900 restructuring of not just the region, but the entire world.

00:37:02.360 I mean, we're talking about, you know, over a billion, over a billion Muslims.

00:37:06.600 And even if like 10% of that are, are, are, are, are a group that is sympathetic to any

00:37:12.720 sort of like Islamist way of life.

00:37:14.600 Can you be a little bit more, I understand.

00:37:18.040 You're talking about more than the population of America here.

00:37:20.760 I think Iran is an adversary and I don't think they are some people that we should coddle,

00:37:27.800 but to say that, you know, letting, and I, and I also don't think Iran should have a nuclear

00:37:34.000 weapon.

00:37:34.380 I don't think that's a good thing to hope for, or to, you know, to allow, but I think

00:37:39.200 we should be realistic and concrete about the details in the actions that would be required

00:37:46.380 to stop such a future.

00:37:50.100 In my mind, there are two options to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

00:37:55.200 One is diplomacy and a deal.

00:37:58.560 We, there was good reporting before the war started that Iran was willing to accept American

00:38:04.600 investigators on the ground, which was something that President Obama didn't secure.

00:38:09.760 So a deal that allows some sort of verification of their nuclear regime, all the caveats about

00:38:15.180 how difficult that might be applied.

00:38:16.320 Or it is an all out ground invasion that necessitates a change from the regime that you expertly

00:38:28.440 point out is threatening America across the world.

00:38:31.060 Right.

00:38:31.440 So you're saying war or appeasement.

00:38:33.460 There's nothing in between.

00:38:34.840 I said diplomacy, a diplomatic solution.

00:38:37.820 But you know, but you know, I mean, don't be naive.

00:38:40.440 I know you're not naive.

00:38:41.320 You know that all Iran knows how to do is to cheat and to steal.

00:38:47.680 Was there any intelligence assessment around the world that said that they had a nuclear

00:38:52.800 weapon before Israel started their air strikes?

00:38:55.880 Hi, I'm Mike Peska, host of The Gist.

00:38:57.680 And I'm the kind of person, maybe you are too, who likes to step outside the easy reinforcement

00:39:03.060 of my own ideas.

00:39:05.360 Maybe you actually like to have your beliefs tested and your perspectives expanded.

00:39:10.120 I find that exciting, not unsettling.

00:39:13.680 There are a lot of shows, ideologically driven shows and networks whose audiences say, thank

00:39:18.620 you for telling me I'm not crazy.

00:39:21.580 But I don't really doubt my own sanity.

00:39:23.920 I don't need affirmation and reassurance that my side or one side of the political or social

00:39:30.500 debate is right.

00:39:31.900 I'm more worried about being misinformed by lazily going along with the untested assumption or narrative.

00:39:38.720 The gist is for people who know that being interesting starts with being interested.

00:39:44.720 Subscribe now wherever you get your podcasts.

00:39:48.900 You mean like in 2003 when the IAEA came out with their huge report and discovered that like

00:39:55.480 since like 1980 or since like the 1980s at some point, Iran had a completely covert like secret

00:40:04.340 nuclear weapons program and was in complete violation of the treaty that they had signed

00:40:09.240 on to?

00:40:10.220 Of course.

00:40:10.960 And so I think a way to end that is a diplomatic solution that provides genuine transparency.

00:40:17.680 Right.

00:40:17.900 Maybe we literally watched them cement close the doors to Fordeaux.

00:40:22.580 I don't think that's possible.

00:40:23.440 But they said Iran said.

00:40:25.460 Then we got to go to war.

00:40:26.380 But the Ayatollah, OK, there you just said it.

00:40:28.820 Because the Ayatollahs said, they said over again, over and over again, if you read the

00:40:34.560 news, they said, we are not going to submit to Trump's terms for this deal.

00:40:43.020 The term, Trump has his head on his shoulders.

00:40:47.480 He understands exactly what Iran would need to do in order for them not to be a nuclear

00:40:55.660 threat to America.

00:40:57.180 But those those things that need to happen, Iran will not agree to.

00:41:03.620 They said it over and over again.

00:41:05.920 So what's wrong with Trump saying to Iran, OK, you have 60 deals, you have 60 days to try

00:41:13.220 to make a deal.

00:41:15.280 And if you do not come up with a diplomatic solution that essentially satisfies our requirements,

00:41:23.240 then all bets are off.

00:41:26.000 I'm pretty sure that if we if we invade, we'll be greeted as liberators.

00:41:31.340 This is I mean, this is this is I think underlies a point about the debate.

00:41:35.740 We're told that there is this limited option where we can take some precise action

00:41:41.540 against a regime that is also a paper tiger and an existential threat to humanity at the

00:41:51.120 same time and then somehow avoid further entanglement, further military action.

00:41:58.840 And that is, again, I think it's it's not I don't when I say it's not being honest, I'm

00:42:04.080 not I'm not saying deliberately a deliberate lie, but I think it leaves unsaid and undiscussed

00:42:09.960 the real eventualities of what happens when we think that we can take quick, decisive military

00:42:15.740 action in the Middle East to achieve policy outcomes that are actually a lot more slippery

00:42:23.860 than we care to admit.

00:42:25.480 I think what's happening is actually pretty obvious.

00:42:27.440 The United States for a long time now would do whatever it takes to remove the Iranian government

00:42:32.540 and they want regime change.

00:42:33.980 The problem, you got about 90 million people there, and many of them have deeply fundamentalistic

00:42:39.420 Islamist worldview that is actually kept in check by the current regime.

00:42:43.620 Meaning if you remove the existing government right now, you have 10 million people maybe

00:42:49.720 who are willing to do I'll put this way, probably one of the biggest civil wars we've seen in

00:42:54.400 hundreds of years, if not ever, because population expansion.

00:42:57.620 And then you're going to have these people spreading out into various other regions.

00:43:01.500 And you may end up with the biggest ISIS problem we've ever seen.

00:43:05.840 So this is the US government assessment, basically, that they want the Ayatollah to heal.

00:43:10.600 They want to bring him to heal.

00:43:11.900 So he keeps all those extremist forces in check, but also isn't developing a nuke.

00:43:16.440 It's also the assessment of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the Sunni Muslim world.

00:43:21.720 And I understand, but I think the analogy that like, well, okay, well, three things.

00:43:27.220 First of all, I just have to say, well, I explained why I call them a paper tiger and why they are

00:43:34.400 also a threat.

00:43:35.560 And doesn't that make sense?

00:43:37.080 Doesn't it make sense to say that their military capabilities on their own cannot overpower

00:43:43.160 America's or Israel, but they work around the world through their proxies?

00:43:47.540 If they are a threat to us asymmetrically in Bolivia, then we should confront them asymmetrically

00:43:52.260 in Bolivia.

00:43:52.760 It doesn't make any sense to confront them with conventional military action in Iran.

00:43:57.380 Okay, I see what you're saying.

00:43:58.280 We should defeat the threat.

00:43:59.740 Okay, I see what you're saying.

00:44:00.540 But they are a threat on multiple levels here.

00:44:04.860 So without a nuclear weapon, they are our number one immediate national security threat.

00:44:12.500 I mean, long-term threat, China, 100%.

00:44:14.940 China, 100%.

00:44:16.660 But in terms of the immediate national security threat, I believe Iran is number one.

00:44:21.200 Okay, it's fine.

00:44:21.760 Even if you don't think it's number one.

00:44:22.520 The cartels are probably before Iran.

00:44:23.680 What?

00:44:24.240 The Qatar's are probably, the cartels are way above Iran.

00:44:29.380 Well, Iran's working with the cartels.

00:44:31.280 But I was talking about-

00:44:31.600 So the cartels are a bigger threat to our national security immediately.

00:44:33.880 No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

00:44:35.000 Tim, I was talking about sovereign nations here.

00:44:37.180 I was talking about sovereign nations.

00:44:38.540 Of course the cartels are a threat.

00:44:39.860 Yeah, but we allocate national security.

00:44:41.880 Of course they're a more immediate threat to us.

00:44:42.980 Of course.

00:44:43.200 They're a threat to our interests in the Middle East.

00:44:45.100 Okay, but I'm talking about in terms of sovereign nations, to me, Iran is the most immediate-

00:44:51.420 Iran's threat is to U.S. assets in the Middle East.

00:44:52.900 No, I just explained-

00:44:54.100 Not to the U.S. United States.

00:44:55.300 I just explained how, what they're doing in the Western Hemisphere and what they're doing

00:45:00.260 even in our own soil.

00:45:01.460 And we're looking at this screen right now that says that they are trying to kill, you

00:45:06.720 know, Trump and-

00:45:07.540 Well, this was a threat to kill him.

00:45:09.000 And I do think they're trying.

00:45:10.580 I think it's silly.

00:45:11.440 Like, of course they want to kill Trump.

00:45:13.460 Okay, so it's not just in the Middle East.

00:45:16.080 Kill Soleimani.

00:45:16.840 I mean, that was-

00:45:17.240 It's not just in the Middle East.

00:45:18.860 Does Iran own any-

00:45:20.240 The principal threat we face in Iran is in the Middle East.

00:45:23.240 Like, obviously we can say that, you know, the biggest threat China poses is the South

00:45:27.600 China Sea and the trade agreements and the alliances we have with the Commonwealth Nations

00:45:30.680 and Taiwan, et cetera, et cetera.

00:45:31.600 But they engage in cyber attacks on us as well.

00:45:34.040 Obviously, Iranian-

00:45:35.300 They also own millions of acres of American land.

00:45:38.600 Oh, believe me.

00:45:39.420 Look, I work for the Epoch Times.

00:45:40.940 I understand the Chinese communist threat to America.

00:45:44.660 And that's why I said long-term threat, no doubt-

00:45:48.480 The real threat that I don't-

00:45:50.720 You know, the reason why I asked about whether they're going to nuke us is because for some

00:45:53.460 reason, and I don't know why, like, I just, nobody says it.

00:45:57.120 You know, I keep hearing about, you know, even Trump has been saying for 40 years they

00:46:00.480 cannot have a nuclear weapon.

00:46:01.880 And I'm like, are you saying they will nuke us?

00:46:05.040 And everybody always dances around that question because I'm like, is the answer yes or no?

00:46:08.240 I think the bigger question is, the bigger risk, is that Iran's going to give a bunch

00:46:13.260 of crackpot Islamist lunatic rebel groups low-yield nuclear bombs, tactical, like dirty

00:46:21.540 bombs and suitcase nukes.

00:46:22.800 A hundred percent.

00:46:23.680 And then you're going to see, like, cities irradiated.

00:46:26.080 A hundred percent, Tim.

00:46:27.040 You are going to see, if Iran gets a bomb, you are essentially going to see the first ever-

00:46:32.100 It's not a bomb.

00:46:33.260 Nuclear-equipped, whatever, equipped insurgency.

00:46:37.160 Like, you will see insurgency, like, ideologically, you know.

00:46:40.920 The real concern I have is, like, the Houthi rebels launching nuclear artillery, low-yield

00:46:45.820 stuff, but just vaporizing a tanker in the Red Sea and then threatening the globe, like,

00:46:51.820 the world with, we have ten more of these and we're not telling you where they are.

00:46:56.620 And then what do we do?

00:46:57.640 Do we, like, does Tom Cruise have to come in and hunt them down?

00:46:59.880 I mean, and I'm not advocating for war.

00:47:03.040 I'm saying this is the real concern that needs to be brought up.

00:47:05.680 Look, and if you're saying the number one threat is in the Middle East, then yes, I agree

00:47:10.220 with you.

00:47:10.680 It's more, but I'm just saying that we have to consider what they're also doing in the

00:47:15.960 rest of the world.

00:47:16.740 I'm just wondering why-

00:47:17.780 In Europe and in the Western Hemisphere.

00:47:19.140 And I would also point out that this idea that, like, okay, because, Will, you're saying

00:47:25.640 essentially the choices are a diplomatic solution or, like, an all-out ground invasion, but

00:47:30.560 why does that-

00:47:31.240 Well, whatever military action it takes to facilitate regime change.

00:47:35.060 Okay, so, well, or-

00:47:37.720 Which I think is a ground invasion.

00:47:39.000 Or destroying the nuclear weapon.

00:47:40.420 Yeah, and I guess I don't buy that you, perhaps, would accept a future where Iran continues

00:47:50.300 all of these adversarial actions around the world-

00:47:53.260 Right.

00:47:53.560 Just without a nuclear program at home.

00:47:55.900 Right.

00:47:56.480 Would I accept that?

00:47:57.800 Yeah, would you accept that?

00:47:58.980 Would you accept them working with the cartels and Bolivia and infiltrating the UK just so-

00:48:05.220 Right, like, there would still be a threat.

00:48:06.700 No, I think we should continue to confront them, like you said, asymmetrically.

00:48:11.840 Until when?

00:48:14.040 Well, until, essentially, America and Israel and their new Gulf allies have essentially

00:48:20.300 taken out all of these proxy groups and the maximum campaign of sanctions have essentially

00:48:25.920 rid Iran of their economic capabilities to fund these groups.

00:48:35.460 And they essentially have to, they're forced to focus primarily on their own people.

00:48:43.800 Yeah, I get that.

00:48:45.600 I think that starting down that path, starting down this path of U.S. military action necessitates

00:48:54.340 a world where we are involved in a regime change in Iran.

00:48:58.320 But why?

00:48:59.260 Because look at the past.

00:49:01.360 Like, look at what not everything has to be.

00:49:04.920 Not everything is a rock.

00:49:07.540 Okay?

00:49:08.180 Look at-

00:49:08.680 Can I explain why?

00:49:10.540 Yeah.

00:49:11.080 So why it would happen?

00:49:12.640 Trump-

00:49:12.960 But what about Trump taking out-

00:49:14.980 What about Trump spending two years taking out ISIS?

00:49:18.020 Boom.

00:49:18.500 Done.

00:49:18.880 What about Trump spending three years taking out al-Shabaab in Somalia?

00:49:22.980 Boom.

00:49:23.320 Done.

00:49:23.660 You know what-

00:49:23.920 What about Trump in North Korea?

00:49:25.420 If I could.

00:49:26.180 You know what I mean?

00:49:26.920 Like, these are one and done things.

00:49:28.420 Why does everything have to, to, to, why does your brain go to 100%?

00:49:33.940 So I-

00:49:34.300 And there's examples of Trump being, of actually being successful at caring, at taking military

00:49:41.100 action that does not result in, like, forever wars or boots on the ground.

00:49:45.580 The fight against ISIS did involve boots on the ground.

00:49:48.360 That's true.

00:49:48.560 ISIS did.

00:49:49.060 Americans, myself included, Kurds, tens of, tens of thousands of Kurds.

00:49:56.160 Soleimani was killed in Baghdad, Iraq.

00:49:58.400 Wait, wait, wait, wait.

00:49:58.900 What I'm saying is that we, we carried out a strike.

00:50:02.400 We took military action and that was a one and done thing.

00:50:05.300 I'm just saying not every military action means that it's going to end in boots on the

00:50:10.060 ground or a forever war or, you know, hundreds of American casualties.

00:50:15.020 I just want to, I just want to, want to, want to draw the parameters here.

00:50:18.660 Is, is your position, no military intervention?

00:50:22.160 The U.S.

00:50:22.460 should stay out of it?

00:50:23.080 I think my position is, is the status quo with a credible threat of U.S. military action

00:50:29.600 in order to facilitate a better deal that provides a more permanent end to the Iranian

00:50:37.280 nuclear program becoming a weapons program.

00:50:39.640 But you are then saying, you are, you are then saying that there is a possibility of U.S.

00:50:44.100 military invention, intervention.

00:50:46.280 So to what scale, depending on the threat, would you tolerate U.S. military invention?

00:50:51.140 Like what I mean by that is if Iran, if the Ayatollah goes on TV, literally holding a red

00:50:56.860 button with a giant nuke behind him saying, we're going to launch this, would you then

00:50:59.900 propose a, a military, like a full regime change?

00:51:04.360 If, if we have a credible threat that Iran is about to launch a nuclear weapon at America

00:51:10.440 or at Israel, then of course it necessitates a proportion, a just preemptive action.

00:51:17.180 Like actual, I'm saying, is, is there a scenario, and it's silly to say,

00:51:21.140 you know, I've got a button, but is there a scenario in your mind where we have to send

00:51:24.600 U.S. troops into Iran?

00:51:26.960 Well, so this is my point.

00:51:28.260 If Iran killed U.S. soldiers, certainly at scale, as, as they already have, but in an

00:51:35.340 exchange of conventional military firepower, then the United States would be justified

00:51:39.460 in invading Iran.

00:51:40.860 I think.

00:51:41.120 But, but the, the way to avoid that is to stay out of offensive military action against

00:51:47.680 the regime right now.

00:51:49.200 There's, there, real quick, there's one scenario where I think literally 95% of people in this

00:51:54.180 country agree that we would send boots on the ground into Iran, and that is the assassination

00:51:58.980 of Donald Trump by the Iranians.

00:52:01.080 I've even talked to anti-interventionist libertarians who agreed, if a foreign nation kills your

00:52:06.260 president, you are, you, there, there is, there is no question, it's an obligation to

00:52:10.440 respond.

00:52:11.300 Your nation doesn't exist if your leaders are killed by your enemies.

00:52:14.600 So, I think most people, when we have this conversation of intervention or not, we're really

00:52:19.640 just talking about the threshold of threat.

00:52:22.040 At what point do we deem the threat to have exceeded the red line to which we have to go in?

00:52:26.920 And I think what we're really seeing is the anti-intervention voices think that line is

00:52:31.220 very, very far away, and then many people think we're at that line, you know, that if

00:52:36.260 Iran gets fissile material, then the line is, like, then it's too late.

00:52:40.280 So, the line is now that they're so close to having it.

00:52:42.700 Well, and also, like, a nation like Israel, like, cannot afford, America can afford to

00:52:49.380 take a lot more risks with Iran than, like, a nation of Israel can.

00:52:52.880 So, it also just depends, it also just depends.

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00:53:21.800 Now, back to your regularly scheduled listening.

00:53:25.120 Of course.

00:53:25.460 It depends, like, you know, what, like, you know, where we are in the world and how we're

00:53:31.420 looking at it.

00:53:32.200 So...

00:53:32.540 I don't describe myself as an anti...

00:53:33.920 Also, Will, thank you for your service.

00:53:35.340 I didn't say that.

00:53:35.400 I don't describe myself as an anti-interventionist.

00:53:38.460 I think the United States should take military action when it is necessary to preserve the

00:53:44.460 interests of the American people and our nation, our borders.

00:53:49.720 To say that, you know, it's anti-interventionist or not is, I think, a little bit of a way to

00:53:54.700 misframe the debate.

00:53:56.960 I definitely don't think you're an anti-interventionist.

00:53:58.740 I've seen you on Fox.

00:54:00.000 Well, you know, I am more restrained than most, I hope.

00:54:05.660 Yes, I would classify you as someone who urges for foreign restraint.

00:54:10.920 I do think that there are extremes on the issue.

00:54:14.340 And the anti-interventionist voices have more prominent extreme personalities...

00:54:22.000 So utopian.

00:54:22.880 ...than the pro-intervention.

00:54:24.620 Typically, like, even Mark Levin, who is probably one of the most pro-intervention,

00:54:30.360 is, if I were to scale things at, like, a minus 10 to positive 10, and the positive 10

00:54:36.340 people are like, go in, boots on the ground, take over, remove the Ayatollah, and the anti-interventionists

00:54:41.540 are like, we should never be involved no matter what, you're insane, minus 10.

00:54:45.020 I think that the prominent voices we see that are anti-intervention skew closer to the extreme

00:54:50.240 than the pro-intervention forces, it's not a moral judgment.

00:54:54.640 I'm saying the pro-intervention individuals know they have a hard sell to make.

00:54:58.180 And so they're trying to come across as more reserved and more reluctant to actually engage

00:55:02.520 in conflict.

00:55:03.660 But do you think that is a fact of their messaging or of their actual vision?

00:55:09.040 I think it's PR.

00:55:10.060 Their actual vision is like Bolton when he said, next year we'll be celebrating in Tehran.

00:55:14.580 Right.

00:55:15.100 Publicly, they know that if they come out and they say, we're going to send boots on the

00:55:18.160 ground, tens of thousands of Americans will die, and we will raise an American flag over

00:55:22.260 their capital city.

00:55:23.140 If you say that, you're going to lose the PR battle instantly.

00:55:26.220 Well, but I'm somebody who, I don't think that's always true.

00:55:33.340 I mean, maybe there are some of these people that are more reserved and secretly are war hawks

00:55:38.380 or warmongers.

00:55:39.140 But I think a lot of these people who support President Trump just really believe in a peace

00:55:44.000 through strength agenda and really do think that Iran is a credible national security threat.

00:55:53.780 Trump's doing it all right.

00:55:54.620 I'm very impressed.

00:55:55.540 I'm very impressed, too.

00:55:56.820 He met with Bannon and called Tucker on the phone.

00:55:58.840 Or I think Tucker called him.

00:56:00.280 And Tucker apologized.

00:56:01.560 But a private meeting with Steve Bannon shows that Trump is actually listening to the people.

00:56:06.740 He's listening to his advisors.

00:56:09.360 He does pay attention.

00:56:11.360 And I'm hoping that—

00:56:12.600 I don't know if meeting with Steve Bannon means that he's listening.

00:56:15.660 I mean, Steve Bannon has a very—I don't know.

00:56:18.000 Don't get me saying that.

00:56:18.320 I absolutely—look, he's totally perceptive.

00:56:20.440 But I agree with you on Trump.

00:56:21.180 But you've seen what all the polls say about this, right?

00:56:24.720 About how the American people feel about this?

00:56:27.960 So depending on the question, there's sentiment against striking Iran, but sentiment in favor of

00:56:34.840 stopping them from getting a nuke, which is like—

00:56:37.200 Depends.

00:56:37.820 What does it mean?

00:56:38.840 Not even.

00:56:39.660 I mean—

00:56:40.000 I think it's a mixed bag.

00:56:41.040 I mean, 83% of Americans wanted us to invade Iraq.

00:56:44.800 And then in two years, less than two years, it was a completely toxic political position.

00:56:51.820 Well, look, we get what we deserve, right?

00:56:53.120 We get what we vote for.

00:56:54.140 And what we—I mean, it is the will of the people.

00:56:56.120 So even if we are stupid and we believe, you know, in the government taking certain actions

00:57:02.200 that end up, you know, shooting us in the foot, like, I'm sorry, that's our right.

00:57:07.700 That's how the world works.

00:57:09.940 That's how it should go.

00:57:10.820 We can't be shielded from death and making mistakes if it's the will of the people, right?

00:57:16.840 And I think that—

00:57:17.660 Yes, sure we can.

00:57:18.860 We don't govern by referendum.

00:57:21.760 So I don't—I mean, it doesn't need to—

00:57:23.220 My point is it doesn't need to dictate foreign policy.

00:57:25.200 We are a republic. We don't have, like, mob rule.

00:57:26.680 But what I'm saying—but what I'm saying is if an overwhelming amount of people are

00:57:32.000 supporting a certain action, like, on the foreign policy, like, international stage,

00:57:36.860 then I don't think that without good reason, they're—like, a small group of people then

00:57:45.960 should be like, oh, no, all of you people are wrong.

00:57:48.220 Yeah, but it's clear right now that there is not overwhelming support for U.S. military

00:57:51.900 intervention.

00:57:53.440 I don't know. I mean, look at the Punchbowl poll, the CNN poll, the JL Partners poll.

00:57:59.920 None of these—I mean, well, maybe Punchbowl does.

00:58:01.740 I think the one consensus—

00:58:02.680 But CNN and JL Partners, they don't use YouGov.

00:58:05.780 Rasmussen doesn't use YouGov.

00:58:07.400 And JL Partners found that 65 percent of MAGA Republicans, more than the conventional Republicans,

00:58:12.800 which they found were 50 percent, favored—were in favor of U.S. strikes.

00:58:18.840 Now, would they be in favor of a ground invasion?

00:58:21.020 Maybe not.

00:58:21.580 Maybe that would be the red line.

00:58:23.520 But they did find that 65 percent would support President Trump in a strike.

00:58:28.340 Yeah, I think it's a mixed bag.

00:58:29.840 Steve Bannon said, if Trump decides to join the war, MAGA will get on board.

00:58:35.180 That's a bold statement.

00:58:37.340 I think you lose permanently 20 percent of MAGA for sure.

00:58:40.760 But I think a lot of Trump supporters will grumble and be like, I can only trust my president

00:58:45.180 or something like that.

00:58:46.040 Well, because Trump's record is incredible.

00:58:48.700 I mean, he really has an impeccable record of, like I said, taking military action but

00:58:55.740 not leading us into disastrous consequences.

00:58:59.100 Can I just choose to believe the poll that represents my worldview, though, and ignore all

00:59:02.340 the rest? Because U.Gov says, no, people don't want military action.

00:59:06.820 And so as long as my political position is aligned with one poll, I'll ignore all the

00:59:10.800 other ones.

00:59:11.180 Yeah, but that's why I was saying U.Gov is like a—I mean, there's a lot of problematic—

00:59:14.440 I agree, I agree.

00:59:15.260 U.Gov is not.

00:59:15.680 U.Gov is—yeah.

00:59:17.960 But that's—but look at the JL Partners poll.

00:59:19.900 Look at the Punchbowl poll.

00:59:21.340 Look at the CNN poll.

00:59:22.520 Maybe Punchbowl uses U.Gov.

00:59:23.900 I'm not sure.

00:59:24.400 But I know that CNN doesn't.

00:59:25.960 I know that JL Partners doesn't.

00:59:27.180 And Rasmussen.

00:59:27.980 Look at the Rasmussen poll from May.

00:59:29.200 They don't use U.Gov.

00:59:32.340 I don't want to say I don't care.

00:59:33.940 My point is that they're all similar.

00:59:36.580 They're all saying the same thing.

00:59:37.780 That's my point.

00:59:39.200 The issue is that the questions are asked—

00:59:41.060 It's not that split.

00:59:41.780 It's not that split as people want to say.

00:59:43.520 The majority of Americans do support President Trump and MAGA.

00:59:46.980 They don't want—they don't want Iran—the majority of Americans do not want Iran to

00:59:51.160 have a nuclear weapon.

00:59:52.140 They understand Iran is a—a nuclear—Iran would be an even bigger national security threat

00:59:57.700 to America than they already are.

00:59:59.280 And some of that—and some of that population, depending on the poll, would support military

01:00:05.920 action in the form of strikes.

01:00:07.680 I haven't seen any—I haven't seen any polling about a ground invasion.

01:00:10.620 I haven't looked.

01:00:11.460 You know what's really funny, too, is just sort of as an aside, there's a lot of anger

01:00:15.260 at Trump.

01:00:15.680 Even Tucker Carlson said Trump is complicit in this war.

01:00:18.760 Trump hasn't done anything yet.

01:00:20.500 Well, it's—you know, the commentary online right now is it's as if—

01:00:24.280 I know.

01:00:24.780 Netanyahu.

01:00:25.760 You let—I mean—

01:00:27.300 Well, it depends on what you read, because there's contradictory reports where either

01:00:30.300 Trump did know or didn't know, was involved or wasn't—

01:00:32.900 Of course he knew!

01:00:34.060 This was the most brilliant deception plan.

01:00:37.600 I mean, it was absolute—oh my God.

01:00:39.820 I'm sorry.

01:00:40.460 Anybody who thinks that Netanyahu did not coordinate with America does not understand anything about

01:00:47.660 the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump, and I'm sorry, Netanyahu is Trump's bitch.

01:00:54.560 I'm just going to say it.

01:00:55.640 For all—like, you know how the media painted in a ridiculous image of President Trump, right,

01:01:04.080 through like Russiagate and all of the lies about him that just bared no reality to the

01:01:08.300 person he was, right?

01:01:09.220 He's a fascist.

01:01:10.080 He's a dictator.

01:01:10.800 All this kind of stuff.

01:01:11.560 That's exactly what Western media does with Netanyahu.

01:01:16.220 I don't like Netanyahu at all, so I'm not saying, like, this is not like—you know,

01:01:19.900 I'm not cheerleading for Netanyahu.

01:01:21.540 But the way that the media portrays him and the way that conservatives have even fallen

01:01:26.580 for some of the media's lies about him is hysterical.

01:01:30.880 Netanyahu is not a hawk.

01:01:32.900 He is a pussy.

01:01:34.120 He is a bitch.

01:01:35.580 And he essentially has—

01:01:38.560 The anti-Israel people don't know whether to cheer or get angry because they want to

01:01:42.940 believe Israel controls America.

01:01:44.340 I know.

01:01:44.660 Of course.

01:01:45.000 Well, that's the thing.

01:01:45.660 This is all binaries.

01:01:47.120 It's war or appeasement.

01:01:48.480 It's the Iraq war or, you know, or—I mean, but the thing is, like, what's different?

01:01:53.620 Look, all of these conservatives that are now saying we should make a deal, like, let me

01:01:56.660 ask you, Will, like, you—Trump ran on the idea that the JCPOA in 2015 was an absolute

01:02:06.220 disaster.

01:02:07.940 So if Iran is not agreeing to these new terms, these more hard-line terms that Trump is giving

01:02:17.040 them, then how could a deal be possible?

01:02:20.660 Because there was real evidence and reporting that they had agreed to a more—agreed to

01:02:26.620 some terms that would have made a more stringent deal before Israel started their campaign

01:02:31.460 of airstrikes.

01:02:32.080 I didn't hear that.

01:02:32.460 What I heard is that the Ayatollah had—

01:02:34.540 Well, so can I—let me—maybe I could just go on a little bit.

01:02:37.500 So there is a world where, for example, Iran accepts an inspection regime that includes

01:02:44.080 American inspectors, a key oversight of the JCPOA, and something that I think would go

01:02:49.920 a long way towards visibility into a future nuclear program.

01:02:54.100 And, hey, there's even a world where the Israeli military campaign is a really effective means

01:03:00.580 of getting an even better deal.

01:03:02.300 And that's what I think we need to talk about, is what does Israel do from here?

01:03:06.940 It's pretty clear that they cannot achieve the outcome of ending the nuclear program militarily

01:03:13.600 by themselves.

01:03:15.140 I think that's true.

01:03:16.280 And so, perhaps this is the time, if it's true what there is reported about Israel's

01:03:21.800 air defense stocks, if it's true that they can't destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, then

01:03:28.280 I think a great outcome for Israel is to use this kind of zenith of pressure to back Iran

01:03:37.080 into a corner where they have to accept a good deal.

01:03:40.180 That, to me, is, I don't know, but I imagine can be an organizing principle of U.S. diplomatic

01:03:48.180 policy here and foreign policy.

01:03:50.940 Because, again, the future is one where Israel either starts to risk their own population and

01:03:57.940 their own defense and civilian infrastructure, or, again, it's even further escalation.

01:04:04.880 That's why I think this weekend is so key.

01:04:07.400 These two weeks Trump has given us is so key.

01:04:09.300 Absolutely, every day.

01:04:09.940 Because it's the chance for Israel's military action to produce the best possible outcome,

01:04:14.440 which is a better deal for Israel and the United States.

01:04:17.780 And otherwise, we get to the point where we run out of steam.

01:04:21.240 Israel runs out of steam in some ways, defensively and offensively, and this starts to get really

01:04:25.700 bad whether we can control it or not.

01:04:29.380 I don't know what you think about that.

01:04:30.760 But, again, we have to be real about what defensive interceptors look like.

01:04:34.680 It sounds like to me that the evidence and the reporting that comes out that kind of fits

01:04:42.880 your kind of preconceived assessment about this and the evidence and reporting that comes

01:04:49.880 out on a day-to-day basis that fits my already previous assessments are perhaps different.

01:04:57.120 It's like we're looking at different evidence.

01:04:59.160 I'm looking at evidence.

01:05:00.380 I'm in WhatsApp groups and Telegram groups with Iranians and IDF people that are sending

01:05:09.740 real-time stuff that are saying different things to me than what your groups are telling you

01:05:16.200 about whether Iran is...

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01:05:45.520 Now, back to your regularly scheduled listening.

01:05:48.140 Hi, I'm Mike Peska, host of The Gist, and I'm the kind of person, maybe you are too,

01:05:52.860 who likes to step outside the easy reinforcement of my own ideas.

01:05:58.500 Maybe you actually like to have your beliefs tested and your perspectives expanded.

01:06:03.540 I find that exciting, not unsettling.

01:06:06.760 There are a lot of shows, ideologically driven shows and networks whose audiences say,

01:06:11.620 thank you for telling me I'm not crazy.

01:06:14.820 But I don't really doubt my own sanity.

01:06:16.720 I don't need affirmation and reassurance that my side or one side of the political or social

01:06:23.740 debate is right.

01:06:25.080 I'm more worried about being misinformed by lazily going along with the untested assumption

01:06:31.340 or narrative.

01:06:32.400 The gist is for people who know that being interesting starts with being interested.

01:06:37.960 Subscribe now wherever you get your podcasts.

01:06:40.920 And are about whether the Ayatollahs are are prepared to actually give up their nuclear weapons

01:06:47.580 program in a real way for this deal.

01:06:49.900 Yeah.

01:06:50.500 I mean, you know, there was some social media reporting that there was an Iranian plane that

01:06:57.080 flew to Oman with a delegation on Tuesday.

01:07:00.860 I think three planes.

01:07:02.460 Well, sure.

01:07:02.780 And so there is always going to be bluster from the regime, from the Ayatollah.

01:07:07.880 There's always going to be the the chance of death to America.

01:07:11.700 But I think you have to look at the actions of the government.

01:07:16.620 You know, frankly, there's a world in which they could have already escalated this if they

01:07:21.140 really hated America so much.

01:07:22.640 If they really wanted to cling to their nuclear regime to the death, I you know, if I'm if I'm

01:07:28.580 just putting myself in their shoes and I I wanted a nuclear program other but they have

01:07:32.380 other no, but they have certain ambitions that they are always weighing.

01:07:38.200 Right.

01:07:38.740 So, like, of course, they want to destroy America.

01:07:41.040 Of course, they want to take down the West.

01:07:42.800 Right.

01:07:43.100 But they are but they are trying to do this in multiple ways in different geopolitical theaters

01:07:49.020 of war around the world.

01:07:50.760 So if they believe that, you know, dropping a nuclear bomb is going to offset some other

01:07:56.940 things that they're trying to do, like everything's like in that sense, like in that sense, they

01:08:02.320 are rational because they're they're essentially juggling all their different methods of of,

01:08:09.220 you know, ambitions for global domination.

01:08:12.500 And they're trying to figure out what is the best way to achieve that on any given day.

01:08:16.480 I agree with you. But that's why if the United States gets militarily involved, all bets are off for

01:08:22.620 them because they know that they're in a world where they're not just fighting the IDF, they're

01:08:30.500 fighting the American military.

01:08:31.800 Right.

01:08:32.240 That requires, you know, a complete escalation of violence.

01:08:36.480 We get to see we'll probably see the whole nature of their air defense assets.

01:08:42.660 That's my concern with the news about what this what these bunker busters would or would not do.

01:08:49.220 It seems to me that it would be reasonable for Iran to preserve some of their most sophisticated air

01:08:53.680 defense assets, especially around their military sites.

01:08:55.920 And so what it would look like, even let's say we're not going to drop a tactical tactical nuclear

01:09:00.960 weapon. But even if we're going to drop three or four bunker busters, which is probably what it

01:09:05.780 would take, that's also 10 percent of our supply.

01:09:08.940 It would require probably a half dozen other U.S. aircraft to go in before the B-2s with the

01:09:15.720 bunker busters, expose themselves to air defense capability.

01:09:18.880 That's tankers, you know, 40,000 feet.

01:09:21.220 That's what Israel's already done.

01:09:22.560 That's what Israel's controlling the skies.

01:09:24.460 And so that in that assumes knowledge, it assumes that the Iranians are showing us all their

01:09:30.100 cards right now.

01:09:31.080 And I think there has to be a degree of humility over the fact that we don't yet know the full

01:09:36.500 extent of what's left in the Iranian arsenal.

01:09:39.680 It's like when Goku is fighting someone, he doesn't go Super Saiyan right away.

01:09:44.580 Yeah, I don't necessarily grasp that analogy, but I think we're on the same page.

01:09:51.260 Basically, Iran is holding back, waiting because, I mean, I actually think the U.S.

01:09:58.740 understands this.

01:10:00.200 Israel's going to go in.

01:10:01.760 Iran's known for their air defense, which and it's mountainous, which makes it very difficult

01:10:05.640 for the U.S. to come and just flatten.

01:10:07.900 Iran knows they're not going to penetrate Israeli interceptors with U.S. support.

01:10:11.780 So the assumption is they're holding back their higher yield warheads until they feel that

01:10:16.780 they're going to start breaking through the interceptors.

01:10:19.220 Additionally, they're going to keep air defense hidden and secure and not use it so it will

01:10:24.880 not be targeted because they know the U.S. will try and come with bunker busters.

01:10:28.200 So I think it's fair to assume, and I think probably the U.S. has already assessed this,

01:10:33.620 when they do go in with bombers, new Iranian air defense is going to pop up they did not

01:10:39.220 know was there and rockets will be firing at our jets.

01:10:42.900 I think it's a possibility.

01:10:44.080 But if we're prepared to doubt Iran's capability, I'm also doubting these headlines that say that

01:10:52.580 the Pentagon has briefed Trump that, you know, and said that these bunker busting,

01:10:59.600 these 30,000 bunker busting bombs are not actually going to work and that it would

01:11:02.940 require some sort of boots on the ground commando raid.

01:11:05.940 Like, you know, a lot of news like this has come out in the last few months.

01:11:10.760 A lot of stuff that's been like leaked to anonymous sources and then Trump will like

01:11:14.260 send out a treatment.

01:11:15.220 He'll just be like fake news, you know.

01:11:16.780 So I'm just like, I'm skeptical of that analysis too, especially when like, you know,

01:11:22.700 this has been the scenario that has been mapped out for, you know, over a decade, you know,

01:11:28.480 of like possibly using, you know, these big bombs to get to Fordow.

01:11:33.640 And I don't think it's necessarily true.

01:11:36.060 Look, it's also true that Israel might be able to do this themselves with their 5,000 pound

01:11:45.780 bombs.

01:11:46.560 OK, so like we have to we have to be skeptical about all of this.

01:11:52.120 And this is why I said at the very beginning that what I think America should do completely

01:11:56.180 depends on how this develops on a day to day basis and what Israel is discovering and and

01:12:03.900 and how their operation is progressing, how we see the momentum of the people on the ground

01:12:10.900 in Iran shaping up.

01:12:12.300 I think all of these factors are so important before we say what America should or should

01:12:17.440 not do.

01:12:17.860 We need to be able to have multiple scenarios in our heads that play out and and and come

01:12:23.880 up with solutions for every single one of those scenarios.

01:12:26.400 I disagree with that only because if we were convinced that this was a a reasonable an operation

01:12:32.700 with a reasonable chance of success and a necessary one.

01:12:35.200 I think we had to have done it this week because I mean in in that that's why I frankly

01:12:40.900 the 30,000 pounds.

01:12:42.640 Yeah, yeah.

01:12:42.940 Drop like just dropping bombs to destroy Fordow.

01:12:45.460 I mean, who who knows what other contingencies can be put in place.

01:12:49.340 That's why I'm a little bit more hopeful.

01:12:52.420 I'm I'm I think that, you know, once we get past this weekend, I'll be a little bit more

01:12:56.640 hopeful for chances for a diplomatic solution.

01:12:59.240 I be because the decisive military action is about momentum and massing firepower before

01:13:08.220 the adversary can react to it or plan for it.

01:13:12.160 I think that the the reason these moves are being made now has less to do with enriched

01:13:20.100 uranium and more to do with I think this will be the last period based on current trends

01:13:25.400 in which the U.S. supports Israel.

01:13:27.140 I think within 10 years, you're going to start seeing more and more calls to defund USA to

01:13:33.280 Israel.

01:13:33.840 And I think within 20 years, we probably cut off Israel entirely based on the trends in

01:13:38.680 polling and sentiment towards Israel with the boomers largely being the support base

01:13:45.660 for U.S. involvement with Israel.

01:13:48.080 I think as they start dying, getting older and, you know, exiting the the the the the

01:13:54.200 economy, exiting the economy, be it political or otherwise.

01:13:57.860 You're going to get Gen Z politicians.

01:14:00.620 And if they're on the right, they're going to say, I don't know why we're funding this.

01:14:03.820 And if they're on the left, they're going to say, we hate Israel.

01:14:06.140 OK, the end result is the funding is cut off.

01:14:09.060 And if this were 10 years from now and Israel started striking Iran, the U.S.

01:14:13.200 would be like, leave us out of it.

01:14:14.340 Bye.

01:14:15.400 OK, that's a whole different conversation that I am so happy to get into if we because you

01:14:21.140 just said a lot of things that actually assume certain.

01:14:26.600 I'm not assuming I would say misconceptions about the relationship between.

01:14:29.840 I'm basing it off of the existing polls from Pew as of March.

01:14:32.420 No, no, no, no, no.

01:14:33.020 I know.

01:14:33.360 I'm not saying I'm not saying that your assumption about people not supporting Israel is incorrect.

01:14:37.260 I'm saying your characterization of funding Israel and USAID actually.

01:14:43.220 USAID.

01:14:43.780 Sorry.

01:14:44.300 And funding them through USAID and giving them aid and all that or whatever.

01:14:48.800 And the memorandum.

01:14:49.320 However, all the ways that we've given them, whether it's the DOD and the $3.8 billion

01:14:55.400 package or USAID help, whatever it is, right?

01:14:59.180 All the ways in which we fund and help Israel.

01:15:01.400 To me, do I believe that the younger generations are going to be fundamentally opposed to this?

01:15:12.860 Sure.

01:15:13.220 But that's only if the messaging stays the same and if people still continue to believe that

01:15:20.280 we are literally writing a blank check to Israel and they can do whatever they want because

01:15:24.500 that is a flat out lie.

01:15:27.560 And that's not what I'm talking about.

01:15:28.820 Nobody understands what this quote unquote aid actually does for America and people calling

01:15:35.960 it aid makes them believe that like America isn't getting an extraordinary return.

01:15:43.260 Not material to what I'm saying.

01:15:44.740 It's not material to what I'm saying.

01:15:45.900 Let's just call it funding.

01:15:47.180 The current sentiment, according to Pew, is minus 53.

01:15:49.960 So 53% of Americans reportedly have an unfavorable view of Israel.

01:15:54.540 I don't really care about whether that number is accurate.

01:15:57.100 I care about the trends that Pew has tracked.

01:15:59.060 I think trends are better, are easier to understand because they're using similar polling methodology

01:16:03.920 and using the similar methodology, they found a different result.

01:16:06.400 That is for U.S. adults aged 18 to 49 among Republicans, Republicans are lean right.

01:16:13.840 It went from 35 to 50% unfavorable.

01:16:16.760 And among Democrats, it's 62 to 71.

01:16:20.320 The younger generation is overwhelmingly shifting in that direction.

01:16:23.940 Israel would not be able to launch an attack on Iran like this even five years from now.

01:16:28.380 I know.

01:16:28.820 But what I'm saying to you, Tim, what I'm saying to you is that the nature, the relationship

01:16:34.160 between Israel and America will change.

01:16:38.260 It's already started to change since October 7th.

01:16:40.680 So it won't matter.

01:16:42.040 So I'm not saying that this isn't true.

01:16:43.700 It could be true.

01:16:44.820 But right now what is happening is what October 7th showed Israel is that essentially the entire

01:16:52.820 like post Yom Kippur war decision to gut their, you know, the most important units of their

01:17:01.740 military and focus on, you know, what they call a small and smart army and offload, you know, so much

01:17:08.200 manufacturing to America and depend America was like depend on America for their, you know, military

01:17:15.720 needs was, might've been the, like the biggest mistake that Israel has ever made in the history

01:17:22.800 of its existence.

01:17:23.780 And it is now taking, um, it is now trying to correct that.

01:17:28.840 I wish it was taking, I wish, I mean, this gets into the whole IDF and the political class

01:17:33.940 in Israel and the, and the generals and whatever, and all that, all the whole can of worms.

01:17:38.420 But I hope, and it seems like people are starting to wake up in Israel that like over time, they,

01:17:44.960 a hundred percent they should decouple with America because it's an unhealthy, toxic, um,

01:17:52.200 you know, uh, like essentially like the fact that, that America, I mean, look at, we saw

01:17:59.520 what happened with Biden.

01:18:00.480 Biden was holding, um, Israel hostage one hand tied behind their back.

01:18:03.860 They wouldn't let Israel do what they needed to do to win the war.

01:18:06.300 And it ended up prolonging this Gaza war and dragging it out for way longer than it need

01:18:11.320 to be dragged just because Biden knew that he had, he was able to, to pull the strings

01:18:17.000 because he was holding hostage, hostage necessary armaments that Israel needed for this war.

01:18:23.500 I have a question.

01:18:24.300 Do you guys think that, let's say the U.S. had zero involvement with Israel, like we weren't

01:18:28.600 providing any funding in any capacity and we only had like very loose communications.

01:18:33.860 Do you think that activists would protest the same over the Israel Gaza war?

01:18:38.760 Oh, for sure.

01:18:39.280 Like, so it's, I guess it's, it's not because the U.S. is involved.

01:18:44.480 No, no, no.

01:18:44.860 There's always another reason that they invent.

01:18:46.920 Of course.

01:18:47.580 It's the same stuff regurgitated, but, but, but there's a reason why I brought this up

01:18:52.500 because the followup is why, why don't we have the same protests over like the weird Muslims

01:18:56.480 in China?

01:18:57.900 Yeah.

01:18:58.160 But look, Israel is damned if they do damned if they don't look, you even saw this with

01:19:01.840 like the anti-interventionists, right?

01:19:03.180 Like when, like right at the beginning, um, when, when, uh, Israel carried out this, this

01:19:09.280 incredible, you know, Michael Corleone, Sherlock Holmes, 007 strike on the, on the 12th and 13th.

01:19:16.400 Um, immediately the response from like people like Jack Posobiec and, and, and, and, you know,

01:19:20.920 some Groypers and stuff like that were like, this is the ultimate betrayal of Netanyahu.

01:19:25.880 And these are the, I mean, of president Trump, and these are the same people saying that

01:19:29.800 like, we need to decouple and, you know, Israel should just like do their own thing.

01:19:34.040 And like America should, well, which is it?

01:19:36.340 Do you want Israel to do their own thing?

01:19:38.220 Or do you want Israel to be coordinating with America?

01:19:41.100 This is always, no matter what Israel does, because Israel is the collective Jew, Israel

01:19:46.020 is just the collective Jew.

01:19:47.060 Any classic trope that you apply, classic anti-Semitic trope that you apply to the anti-Semitic

01:19:51.940 Jew has just been transferred in the modern age onto the state of Israel.

01:19:55.500 Do you think it would have been, I don't know what's true in many ways, but do you think

01:20:00.740 it would have been problematic or it would be problematic if we found out that Netanyahu

01:20:05.540 launched this military operation knowing that Israel needed America to finish the job and

01:20:13.680 he did so without prior coordination with Trump?

01:20:16.820 Oh yeah, that would be problematic, but not if he did it with, with coordination.

01:20:20.940 Right.

01:20:21.500 And so, oh, I think if he did it, if he did it, I agree with you.

01:20:25.140 With no, if he did it with no plan in place to carry, carry this out without America's

01:20:32.580 help?

01:20:34.480 Well, right.

01:20:35.300 And so, but he.

01:20:36.240 And he didn't tell Trump?

01:20:37.680 Yes, that would be very problematic.

01:20:39.180 There's mixed reporting, right?

01:20:40.320 That would be very problematic.

01:20:41.440 They obviously did this.

01:20:42.440 I'm the first to criticize Netanyahu for that.

01:20:44.180 Yeah, honestly, I didn't expect that, but, but, you know, there's plenty of reporting that,

01:20:48.500 uh, indicates President Trump and the Americans asked Israel not to strike multiple times.

01:20:54.940 Uh, there's a, there's negotiations scheduled for the Sunday, uh, last Sunday, I suppose.

01:21:00.400 Right.

01:21:00.700 And so my, my point is like, if we want to perhaps abate this trend, because I, I think

01:21:08.040 Tim is right that it's a, it's kind of a pivotal point for the Israel U S relationship that

01:21:13.440 I don't think you can just wish away, um, on either side.

01:21:18.160 And that, that's why diplomacy support, these numbers will accelerate drastically if there

01:21:24.580 is, I think even a, not necessarily that long protracted war in the Middle East, because

01:21:31.260 Americans don't want that.

01:21:33.560 They don't, they don't want military involvement in the Middle East, despite kind of the, the

01:21:38.840 proximate issues.

01:21:39.880 And unfortunately they've been brainwashed by the media for decades to believe that, uh,

01:21:46.460 that the relationship with Israel is one of the reasons why we're tied to the Middle East

01:21:51.420 when in actuality, Israel is America's biggest buffer in the Middle East that allows America

01:21:58.300 to redirect resources to the Indo-Pacific, to China without Israel, America would have so

01:22:06.260 many more expenditures.

01:22:08.160 They would need to have even more boots in the middle boots on the ground that they do

01:22:11.460 look, they don't have an air base and they don't have a base in Israel, right?

01:22:14.160 They don't fight, uh, uh, Israel's wars.

01:22:16.260 Israel fights their own wars, but they have bases everywhere else.

01:22:18.780 They still haven't gotten out of Germany since World War II.

01:22:21.180 I think you're right.

01:22:22.260 And that's why the best case scenario, the best case scenario is a world where Israel's

01:22:27.340 decisive kind of surgical military action precipitates a better diplomatic solution that

01:22:34.440 is more enduring than the JCPOA or the years without the JCPOA that saw runaway tensions.

01:22:41.540 Because then that's a world where Israel shows that they don't need direct U.S. military

01:22:47.440 involvement to achieve some of their strategic military outcomes.

01:22:50.980 And it's also a world where the United States doesn't need to be further, more further militarily

01:22:56.280 involved in the Middle East after 30 years of boots on, still boots on the ground.

01:23:01.740 I have a question.

01:23:02.960 If, um, hypothetically, say Donald Trump could snap his fingers and erase the existing regime

01:23:12.080 of Iran and their insurgent proxies in the region, should he do it?

01:23:17.920 And, and...

01:23:18.300 A hundred percent.

01:23:19.340 And I'm saying this not...

01:23:20.560 Yes.

01:23:20.900 My point is, if it was within the power of the United States to remove troublesome actors,

01:23:26.320 violent actors...

01:23:27.200 Yeah.

01:23:27.600 I can tell you why.

01:23:29.760 Because as we've seen with the Abraham Accords, many of these Gulf countries are wanting to

01:23:35.380 turn over a new leaf.

01:23:37.120 Even if their populations are still largely, uh, you know, uh, maybe like, uh, more tribal

01:23:43.160 or have more like Islamist, um, uh, beliefs, they are walking a fine line and countries like

01:23:48.720 Saudi Arabia and UAE and Bahrain and even countries like Jordan and North Africa, they want to be

01:23:55.620 part of the modern world.

01:23:58.600 They want to reap the benefits of having good relationships with the West.

01:24:02.740 And if anything proved that, it was the Abraham Accords.

01:24:05.680 Now, these countries...

01:24:06.920 To play devil's advocate, I think the Abraham Accords are so possible because there is a

01:24:12.060 united Sunni-Israel-United States coalition against the Iranians.

01:24:19.300 That's the point.

01:24:19.820 I wonder if, if Tim's hypothetical is true and we snap our fingers and the regime goes

01:24:24.480 away, what does the Middle East look like without that counterbalance that could provide

01:24:29.000 the predicate for such a coalition?

01:24:30.960 So wait, so, so, so let me say, so, so because they, the, the Gulf countries have these goals,

01:24:35.740 right?

01:24:37.160 What's, what's the biggest, what's the biggest hindrance to that?

01:24:40.640 You just said it.

01:24:41.520 It's Iran.

01:24:42.360 Okay.

01:24:42.620 They're all threatened.

01:24:43.720 They're all threatened.

01:24:44.400 But Iran has been trying to, in conjunction with Sunni groups like the Muslim Brotherhood,

01:24:50.580 they have been trying to take out the Hashemite Kingdom in Jordan, the House of Saud.

01:24:58.380 They've been trying to take out the government of Oman, of Morocco, of Bahrain.

01:25:03.900 I said Jordan.

01:25:04.780 Okay.

01:25:05.000 So these people are...

01:25:06.340 Is that true?

01:25:06.960 Like, actually, I, I, obviously there's a conflict with Saudi Arabia.

01:25:10.260 Go look at, go look at the work of like Yorm Ettinger.

01:25:12.820 He has literally been, this is his expertise.

01:25:15.440 He has, he's a former ambassador and, and anyway, he has literally been documenting this

01:25:19.580 for his entire career.

01:25:21.420 I'll say, I, I don't, I don't want the Iranian regime to stick around, but there is a world

01:25:25.160 where, uh, you know, a perhaps feeble, um, you know, inflamed and angry Shiite regime

01:25:31.360 does some, some modicum of, uh, good by rallying the rest of the civilized Arab world.

01:25:38.380 And getting them to, yeah, yeah, essentially.

01:25:40.140 Yeah, essentially, I, I see what you're saying and it's a, it's a possibility, but what I'm

01:25:44.260 saying is that the Abraham Accords are not some like cold peace, like what happened with

01:25:50.240 like, you know, Egypt and Israel or Jordan and Israel, where it's like, they're kind of

01:25:54.660 still playing both sides and sometimes they...

01:25:56.540 Aren't they better?

01:25:57.080 Right.

01:25:57.300 Aren't they better than that?

01:25:58.580 The Abraham Accords, that is like real, real top down and ground up like peace building

01:26:07.340 on all sides, okay?

01:26:09.760 How about Trump?

01:26:10.280 And so once that, once that, once that infrastructure, that architecture is in place, it's going

01:26:17.900 to be very hard.

01:26:18.660 If you take out a nation like Iran and these peace deals have already been signed and they

01:26:23.740 are in the same, you know, like I said, there, it's not like a cold peace, like the peace

01:26:27.500 deals of Jordan or Egypt, but it's more of the Abraham Accords.

01:26:29.960 Then that's going to be very, very hard to, to break up because you have it happening

01:26:34.980 on a people to people basis.

01:26:36.320 Do we remember the Middle East before the Islamic regime?

01:26:39.360 Obviously it's not been great since, but before the Islamic regime, you had what, four wars

01:26:45.660 between different Arab states and the Israelis?

01:26:48.100 Well, that was the whole, that was the whole period of like pan Arabism and, and, and that

01:26:53.860 the whole, yeah, I mean, that was like a, that was when, that was before these Gulf states

01:26:59.800 had essentially decided to give up their, you know, Sunni fundamentalist beliefs and like

01:27:06.280 come to the table and try to moderate and try to reform.

01:27:10.260 Yes.

01:27:10.880 I, I hear you.

01:27:11.800 Even if they, even if they were secular, even if it was like a regime, like regime, like

01:27:15.620 Egypt, like, right.

01:27:16.560 He, they, they still had, they were still Arab.

01:27:19.140 So even like the secular Arab states had these fanatical tribal views.

01:27:23.820 But that's, that's why I wonder if the true best, if the true best case scenario is an

01:27:29.580 Iranian regime that is still a Shiite Islamic Republic, but one that is closer to North Korea

01:27:37.600 in its geopolitical and economic relationships with the rest of the world, uh, genuinely isolated,

01:27:44.640 but still in existence and kind of under the thumb of this Arab Israeli coalition in the

01:27:50.900 United States that doesn't pose a threat to, uh, you know, to Israel certainly.

01:27:55.960 And, and to the, you know, to the regional, uh, counterbalance.

01:28:01.540 I'm not willing to keep a regime.

01:28:03.700 Like, I'm not willing to be like, Oh, you know, keep this regime.

01:28:06.240 I look, I think that's what, what has led us to this point to begin with is these strategies

01:28:11.120 of like containment.

01:28:12.020 This is what Israel's strategy has been since like day one of their existence.

01:28:15.620 It's ridiculous.

01:28:16.580 It's like the, it's like the containment, like, like the enemy I know is better than

01:28:20.840 like the net.

01:28:21.360 Like, I think that has, what has gotten in that, that is what has allowed October 7th

01:28:26.540 to, to happen.

01:28:27.740 Does the U S have the ground forces capable for occupying Iran?

01:28:32.560 No.

01:28:33.300 Well, they a hundred percent do not.

01:28:35.640 And also like, I don't think there's anybody that would tolerate that.

01:28:41.140 And even people who say we should like nuke Iran, I don't think any of them would, even

01:28:45.840 the biggest war hawks.

01:28:46.900 I don't think any of them would say.

01:28:48.280 And the reason why they wouldn't say that to him, the reason why they wouldn't say we

01:28:51.780 need to occupy Iran is because those people have some understanding of the differences

01:28:56.120 between the Persian people and the Arab people.

01:28:58.640 Okay.

01:28:58.780 Well, my question was just, if we have the forces to do so, the reason being, it sounds

01:29:03.040 like the tactical nuke statement about, we got a bunker bust and then nuke it is a big

01:29:08.420 ask.

01:29:09.180 The, the goal being, oh no, I mean, all we can do is nuke it.

01:29:13.040 There is another option though.

01:29:14.420 Israel's proposed human intervention with commandos.

01:29:17.680 However, if you want commandos to go into Florida to actually start dismantling and blowing

01:29:21.260 all this stuff up, you're going to have to secure the entire region, which means you'll

01:29:26.940 need a ground invasion first.

01:29:28.200 Not necessarily.

01:29:29.960 How do you, how do you, you control the skies.

01:29:31.700 I think that you pair, you pair drop some one way commandos into the photo to blow it

01:29:35.840 up and then rogue one kamikaze themselves.

01:29:37.960 Well, I think it depends how much damage they've done before that takes place before, before

01:29:43.620 the, if you're looking for new ways to get ahead, then you're our kind of person.

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01:30:08.920 Now, back to your regularly scheduled listening.

01:30:13.260 Hi, I'm Mike Peska, host of The Gist, and I'm the kind of person, maybe you are too, who

01:30:18.560 likes to step outside the easy reinforcement of my own ideas.

01:30:23.640 Maybe you actually like to have your beliefs tested and your perspectives expanded.

01:30:28.480 I find that exciting, not unsettling.

01:30:31.600 There are a lot of shows, ideologically driven shows and networks whose audiences say, thank

01:30:37.000 you for telling me I'm not crazy.

01:30:40.040 But I don't really doubt my own sanity.

01:30:41.840 I don't need affirmation and reassurance that my side or one side of the political or social

01:30:48.860 debate is right.

01:30:50.060 I'm more worried about being misinformed by lazily going along with the untested assumption

01:30:56.480 or narrative.

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01:31:05.500 The commando raid on Ford out actually commences.

01:31:09.700 You will not be able to...

01:31:10.900 I don't know.

01:31:11.420 I mean, but I could be wrong.

01:31:12.480 I'm not Will.

01:31:12.940 I mean, what is your assessment of that?

01:31:14.320 I don't know.

01:31:16.420 It is a theoretical possibility.

01:31:19.300 I think it requires probably the entirety of Israel's tier one special operations forces.

01:31:27.880 I'm frankly more concerned about what happens after they leave.

01:31:33.060 You know, what is the plan?

01:31:34.100 You just start smashing centrifuges with hammer.

01:31:38.260 Presumably, I think it's achievable in concept.

01:31:43.680 If it is true that Iran doesn't have a robust air defense, then I think, yes, it happens.

01:31:51.680 But what it would look like, theoretically, let's say, is that Israel would focus precision

01:31:57.200 fires and covert action to what they call prepare the battlefield.

01:32:03.400 And then, you know, some combination of airborne and air assault forces.

01:32:08.200 I think, you know, you would need hundreds of Israeli commandos on the ground and then probably what they call an outer cordon of more conventional but still special operations forces to prevent an Iranian counterattack.

01:32:21.820 And then a whole host of air power.

01:32:24.780 I mean, it's a three or four day operation at a minimum.

01:32:28.840 It's incredibly risky and I don't even have a good understanding of what Iranian military forces exist around Fordo itself.

01:32:39.720 But I will say, I think it's probably there's a higher chance of success, even though it's much riskier with that than an airstrike.

01:32:48.860 Because there has to be a battle damage assessment, I think, as you mentioned, Tim, earlier in the show.

01:32:55.280 And that requires people on the ground.

01:32:57.800 Maybe it's intelligence officers.

01:33:00.340 Maybe it's an asset.

01:33:01.440 But at the end of the day, all of this, a lot of these activities result in, quote unquote, boots on the ground to figure out what the heck is going on in reality.

01:33:12.920 And so I don't think it's unreasonable for Israel to do this with commandos.

01:33:19.700 I mean, that's I think if the Israeli military has a strength that is in surgical precision operations that that don't necessarily involve a commitment of sustained combat operations.

01:33:31.920 So let's just let's just try this real quick.

01:33:34.760 All right.

01:33:35.740 So here's Google Earth.

01:33:37.880 And it takes 27 years for the stupid thing to load.

01:33:41.960 Google Maps is way better.

01:33:43.460 All right.

01:33:43.600 So here's Tehran.

01:33:44.660 Fordo is just what?

01:33:46.520 It's somewhat south northeast of it.

01:33:48.160 So there's the number two on the ground there.

01:33:50.300 If you see that blue shield.

01:33:52.440 Blue two.

01:33:52.860 This right here to the left.

01:33:54.220 Sorry, I guess this right here.

01:33:55.240 That far.

01:33:56.120 Oh, my God.

01:33:56.820 I cannot.

01:33:57.240 It's around there.

01:33:58.600 It's yeah.

01:33:59.220 It's around that number two.

01:34:00.660 This is what?

01:34:02.900 Our home or home is right town.

01:34:04.920 That's it's close.

01:34:05.680 So.

01:34:05.940 So.

01:34:06.160 So they're saying we are going to send Israeli commandos within driving distance of Tehran.

01:34:12.920 with 10 million people and they're going to be able to waltz on.

01:34:17.120 And one does not simply walk into Fordo nuclear facility and destroy their center.

01:34:20.360 Well, if if if you're a.

01:34:22.340 No, they would be dropping bombs as well.

01:34:24.760 Yeah.

01:34:24.940 But if you're a historian of U.S. military operations, the first effort to retrieve the

01:34:30.000 American hostages from the embassy in Tehran was a joint special operations mission called

01:34:36.520 Desert One that was not foiled by an Iranian airstrike or, you know, enemy fire.

01:34:45.080 But it was foiled by a plane crash and a helicopter crash at a at a at a kind of loitering area,

01:34:54.620 an intermediate staging base in the desert of Iran that killed many Americans.

01:35:01.040 It was a colossal failure, an embarrassment for the U.S. military.

01:35:04.900 That's frankly left a huge stain and extended the hostage crisis by probably another, you

01:35:11.000 know, another many months.

01:35:12.880 There's.

01:35:13.940 So it it it's not even the fact that Iran might kind of kill Israel Israelis with AK-47s or

01:35:20.820 surface terror missiles.

01:35:21.960 I mean, just imagine what it would take to stage Israeli commandos.

01:35:28.100 If you don't have the element of surprise, then there's no then there there's nothing

01:35:31.300 there.

01:35:31.460 So you can see Forto's right here.

01:35:32.760 Don't forget about like the thousands of Iranians, the thousands that have been carrying out this

01:35:38.600 attack, this this this this operation with Israel.

01:35:42.860 My point is how including the the the now members of the Iranian military that have essentially

01:35:49.780 defected and gone to and, you know.

01:35:53.660 Right. So just my point, like, how do you get human beings to Forto with enough time and

01:36:01.720 resources, ordinance to destroy a deep underground military base, meaning they're going to be

01:36:06.920 carrying explosives in engineers, planting these things, detonating them and escaping.

01:36:13.300 It's a one way trip.

01:36:14.200 So so you're not you're not beyond my you have to you're going to have to invade Iran.

01:36:19.640 This is this is extremely close.

01:36:21.220 It's Iran.

01:36:22.020 It's a driving distance.

01:36:23.380 Can you find the nearest?

01:36:25.100 Wait, why do you have to wait?

01:36:26.540 But what do you mean?

01:36:27.240 Well, of course, they're going to once you enter the country, you have to eventually you have

01:36:30.240 to land planes in order to get stuff big enough to drop it by parachute and then go pick

01:36:36.060 it up from wherever it lands.

01:36:36.900 I don't I don't like I would be surprised if I think you'd have to land a plane somewhere.

01:36:42.140 Right.

01:36:42.280 So that's why I was asking Tim if you could find an airstrip nearby because you'd either

01:36:46.320 the mission is to either make an airstrip and that's possible, but very risky or to find

01:36:53.040 an airstrip that you can seize.

01:36:54.560 This was the mission of my old unit where you parachute onto an airstrip and then you create

01:37:00.400 a call it a lodgment or an area that you control that's big enough where you can land plane,

01:37:05.720 land planes and successive forces.

01:37:10.780 There's a domestic airport just north of Kham.

01:37:16.960 And then you have to drive through a city.

01:37:19.500 Yeah, that were the case.

01:37:20.480 So, I mean, you're talking about securing these sites first, which means you're not just going

01:37:25.600 to airdrop some dudes in.

01:37:27.540 If you guys not think that Israel like like.

01:37:31.920 You guys don't think that Israel has secret knowledge that we're not.

01:37:38.300 I'm sure they do.

01:37:39.200 Sure, sure.

01:37:39.700 But the point is this.

01:37:40.560 Israel has stated if the U.S. doesn't do it, they're going.

01:37:44.520 One of their options is human commandos infiltrating and destroying Fordow.

01:37:48.740 That doesn't seem to make any sense to me.

01:37:51.020 I have no idea.

01:37:51.600 I mean, it could be more.

01:37:52.600 Again, my point is.

01:37:53.880 I think it would obviously be an operation that involves not merely this deliberate commando

01:38:10.420 raid and accompanying airstrikes, but also like massive cyber attacks.

01:38:17.900 And that doesn't change that 10 human beings with guns will be in a firefight with whoever

01:38:25.700 you sent in by air.

01:38:27.000 The point is knock out their electrical grid, destroy their gas stations, do whatever you

01:38:31.600 got to do.

01:38:32.080 If you want humans in Fordow, you have to secure the region.

01:38:36.200 You've got to make sure nobody can get in.

01:38:38.340 Like you're saying, at least landing one plane.

01:38:40.200 I understand.

01:38:40.960 But the risk is only.

01:38:42.760 But the risk is that it's the IRGC.

01:38:45.220 I mean, the risk isn't like insurgents.

01:38:49.460 I disagree.

01:38:51.420 Partisans.

01:38:52.240 I mean, in your experience, what do you think the likelihood of local militia just rising

01:38:56.720 up if U.S. or Israeli troops are landing?

01:39:00.020 No way.

01:39:01.340 I don't know enough about it.

01:39:03.000 Why not?

01:39:03.220 Why not?

01:39:04.120 I just don't think so.

01:39:05.280 Because I mean, what do you think would happen?

01:39:07.600 Because I guess because I look, I don't want to I don't want to sound so I'm my father's

01:39:11.920 daughter.

01:39:12.100 If a plane flew over any rural area of the United States and dudes with Iranian flags

01:39:17.720 were flying out with guns, random hillbillies would be shooting at them with pistols.

01:39:21.860 That's because because the the population of Iran has a very different outlook on this.

01:39:27.460 And and and I don't know the intel I'm getting is.

01:39:30.740 You'll be greeted as liberators.

01:39:32.000 The poll.

01:39:32.740 Israel's invading.

01:39:33.700 Hooray.

01:39:34.580 No, no.

01:39:35.540 I think I think that.

01:39:36.840 Well, look, here's here's the breakdown that they'll they'll tell you.

01:39:40.080 And then what the intel that I'm getting is slightly different.

01:39:42.680 But the breakdown that they're saying is that that they say and all the, you know,

01:39:47.220 websites and everything is that like 80 percent of the population is supportive of Israel.

01:39:55.200 Supportive, not just critical of the regime, but actually supportive of Israel.

01:39:58.360 I don't believe 80 percent of the Iranian population.

01:40:00.360 What I'm.

01:40:01.180 I don't know.

01:40:01.980 So, but it will be greeted as liberators.

01:40:04.940 It also.

01:40:06.060 Well, I mean.

01:40:08.160 I'm sorry, but have you guys not been privy to like the communication between Iranians

01:40:12.980 and Israel and Israelis for the last like over a decade?

01:40:17.200 I mean, it's it's really stunning.

01:40:19.520 And I feel like we're acting as if these are like sand people or something and not like a

01:40:25.060 highly civilized, sophisticated, educated population that is the least anti-Semitic in

01:40:31.180 any Middle Eastern country, including many Western countries like France and Germany,

01:40:35.360 where the overwhelming majority of the people have been trying to trying to take out this

01:40:41.680 this this this regime and not just in, you know, not just in 2022 with the woman life

01:40:46.960 freedom protests, but in 2017 and in 2009.

01:40:49.820 I don't believe any of that.

01:40:51.400 The reason why they're having trouble, the reason why they're trouble is having trouble

01:40:55.520 is because they're largely secular, these people, and they don't have the organizational

01:40:59.460 structures that like Khomeini found with the with the mosques in the mosques that essentially

01:41:04.280 was able to unite people.

01:41:05.960 But you have to think about the IRGC itself.

01:41:08.760 No, no doubt.

01:41:09.100 I think the New York Times, it was the New York Times, Wall Street Journal today or yesterday

01:41:13.860 had a report that the rank and file of the IRGC, that's where you find the genuine Islamic

01:41:20.220 radicals.

01:41:21.440 And so they're the guys with the guns.

01:41:23.720 Perhaps they, you know, they're still alive.

01:41:25.820 I don't believe for two seconds the majority of of Iran supports Israel.

01:41:29.800 I do think that's a stretch.

01:41:32.300 That's why I think there is still it is not a...

01:41:36.300 I don't know why.

01:41:36.540 Persians are very, very different than Arabs.

01:41:38.840 Because they're currently being bombed by, by, by Israel.

01:41:44.260 Look, is there some, is there some...

01:41:46.120 Yay, they've come to bomb us, finally.

01:41:47.520 Is there some...

01:41:47.940 No, they're not being bombed by Israel.

01:41:49.500 That's just not true.

01:41:50.400 Israel is bombing Iran.

01:41:52.560 They're not bombing the people.

01:41:53.900 They're bombing the assets of the country.

01:41:56.120 I mean, like...

01:41:57.200 They're, they're not, they're not bombing...

01:41:59.440 This is a very...

01:42:00.200 That is, that is not true.

01:42:01.160 Who's that civilian?

01:42:01.880 They're not...

01:42:02.360 This is, this is, this is retarded.

01:42:03.920 No, no, no, no, no.

01:42:04.580 That's not what I was going to say.

01:42:04.680 The idea that a foreign country will bomb your country and you'll be like, yay, is stupid.

01:42:09.360 It's just stupid.

01:42:10.760 No.

01:42:11.040 It doesn't matter if it's military or otherwise.

01:42:12.740 And I didn't say it was civilian.

01:42:13.840 The idea that our military, any in the world, gets bombed and we go, hooray, finally it happened.

01:42:18.560 It is true.

01:42:19.200 It is true.

01:42:19.880 No way.

01:42:20.360 That there is a small contingent, and this is, I've seen a lot of these videos now.

01:42:25.200 There is a contingent of Iranians who were supportive of Israel.

01:42:28.960 And now they're worried, even Iranians in the diaspora, because they have family there and everything.

01:42:34.080 Sure, and they're Americans who support Hamas.

01:42:34.860 And they're worried, and they're worried about that, for sure.

01:42:36.700 Imagine, imagine Iran playing videos of Hamas supporters and being like, look, America actually supports Hamas.

01:42:42.560 Tim, the people, the Iranian, like, diaspora that I speak to, almost all of them still have family there in Iran.

01:42:53.920 And they are all praying for Israel's success.

01:42:58.800 And they really, really do.

01:43:00.500 They're marching in the street in New York holding signs saying, stop bombing my home.

01:43:04.220 Have you seen those protesters?

01:43:05.800 Yes, I have.

01:43:06.700 Do you know how many protesters there are?

01:43:08.520 A thousand?

01:43:09.060 Two thousand?

01:43:09.740 You think that Iran has not activated their whole, like, propagandist network on behalf of the regime?

01:43:18.140 You know who these people are?

01:43:19.380 And vice versa.

01:43:21.460 What do you mean?

01:43:22.220 Like, you're sitting here right now trying to convince us that 80% of the people around are supporting Israel?

01:43:29.440 Well, that's, look, that's just what all the polls show on the internet.

01:43:32.780 Yeah, it's called propaganda.

01:43:34.400 We will be greeted, that's what we will be greeted as liberators means.

01:43:38.600 It means, no, you will not.

01:43:40.380 You are not going to bomb a foreign country in any capacity, be it industrial control systems or missile sites,

01:43:46.260 and have the civilian population of the country cheer for you.

01:43:48.640 I just, Tim, I wish I could literally just call up people right now and be like, talk to him, Tim Pool, Iranians.

01:43:54.540 I wish I could bring...

01:43:55.360 What does that mean?

01:43:56.260 What does that mean?

01:43:57.240 I wish that, because they could tell you what they are hearing from people on the ground in Iran,

01:44:02.780 or they are on the ground in Iran.

01:44:04.660 I am disinterested.

01:44:05.040 Do you understand the concern, though?

01:44:06.440 I am disinterested in magical logic based on anecdotal statements.

01:44:11.240 There is a simple logic to all of this, and that is, if you're actually trying to convince people

01:44:17.440 that a nation will overwhelmingly support the country bombing them, that is an absurdity.

01:44:22.660 You might as well say the sky is purple.

01:44:24.660 Like, sometimes it is, I guess, but no, people know it's not.

01:44:27.440 But it is, but, like, it is true that, like, right away, Iraq, the Iraqi people were like,

01:44:33.840 yay, Americans are liberators, and then within a year, it was like, oh, shit, they really

01:44:38.520 fucked this up.

01:44:39.820 So it is possible that, it is possible...

01:44:43.360 I don't know that it was ever that widespread.

01:44:46.580 Well, maybe it wasn't as widespread.

01:44:48.020 I mean, you're talking about Arabs versus Persians.

01:44:49.740 Again, a very different people.

01:44:50.900 You know, if there's a civil war, like if we're talking about, like, the North and South

01:44:54.360 Vietnamese or, like, the Koreas, and you said, we'll be greeted as liberators, it's like,

01:44:58.020 yes, by one of the warring factions, but Iran is not that.

01:45:03.660 Iran is not what?

01:45:04.620 In civil war.

01:45:07.720 There doesn't exist pre-existing domestic tensions of which we could take advantage.

01:45:12.920 But, Tim, you have to be caught...

01:45:16.080 In order to say something like that, you have to understand, like, the ethnic makeup of the

01:45:20.420 country, and you have to understand, you have to understand the position of, like, the different

01:45:24.920 ethnic groups, like the Kurds and the Turkic tribes and the Awazi Arabs and the Azeris.

01:45:29.880 Like, you have to understand the positions that they have taken since Israel stopped, started

01:45:36.340 dropping bombs.

01:45:37.480 These, a lot of these ethnic minorities, they have, you know, their councils and their spokespeople

01:45:43.120 and stuff like that of this institution and this institution.

01:45:46.520 And a lot of them have put out statements in full support of what Israel is doing.

01:45:53.760 That's a...

01:45:54.480 There's a difference between that and, like, taking up blocking positions to prevent the

01:45:59.820 IRGC from counterattacking Fordow and the Israelis land.

01:46:03.640 I agree with you.

01:46:04.260 The point stands, like, it's...

01:46:05.480 I agree with you.

01:46:06.460 You know, the combat power of the Iranian military is in the hands of people dedicated,

01:46:13.060 as you say, to Israel's destruction.

01:46:14.540 Fair point.

01:46:15.120 I imagine if, like, Chinese communists were landing at, like, a region, at, like, Martinsburg

01:46:20.320 Regional Airport and bombing, which is an Air Force base, or it's a national, it's an

01:46:24.780 Air National Guard.

01:46:25.520 Imagine if they, like, communist China, they bombed it, landed a plane there, and a bunch

01:46:30.240 of dudes walked out.

01:46:30.980 I bet there'd be a bunch of leftists cheering for them.

01:46:35.080 Yeah, they'd be sitting there with signs being like, liberate us.

01:46:37.820 Please, bring communism.

01:46:40.580 Okay.

01:46:40.780 Well, I would, I would, sure.

01:46:44.000 The point, you know, in this, again, this is why I think people are suspicious, is we're

01:46:50.680 trying to make the same case that we can analyze a Middle Eastern country, you know, Southwest

01:46:56.820 Asian country, in order to achieve and support military and geopolitical aims that are inherently

01:47:05.220 unpredictable.

01:47:06.900 It's the, the, the discourse surrounding the case for intervention, to me, is based on

01:47:14.380 a little bit of hubris around guessing what will happen in a world where we can't, we can't

01:47:20.680 assume nor guess what will happen.

01:47:23.280 Yeah, I think you're right.

01:47:23.820 And I think I could fall, fall prey to that as well, for sure.

01:47:26.960 But I think that the other side of that is, there's also a possibility that you don't

01:47:31.780 have hubris and that you're actually just making calculated costs.

01:47:36.120 If you're looking for new ways to get ahead, then you're our kind of person.

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01:48:02.300 Now back to your regularly scheduled listening.

01:48:05.780 Risk benefit analysis, you know, or like risk benefit, you know, calculations and deciding

01:48:14.460 that it's worth it, that the possible risk of like A, B and C happening is worth it, is

01:48:20.000 worth it for, you know, to stop the possibility of X, Y, and Z.

01:48:25.060 But the people who bear the consequences of decision makers being wrong about that are

01:48:30.360 going to be at least one generation of American and Israeli men who spend their 20s in this

01:48:38.380 country, perhaps.

01:48:39.500 I just, that's what happened to us already.

01:48:42.140 It, it, it's, I mean, I was on the tail end of it, but it, it kind of defines my life

01:48:47.320 and a lot, and, and so we.

01:48:49.640 But Will, maybe you're, but, but, but this is not, but this is a very, but not every situation

01:48:53.860 is a rock.

01:48:54.440 This is just a very different situation.

01:48:56.700 You're right.

01:48:57.520 It is, it is different.

01:48:58.900 And I think people are traumatized by that.

01:49:00.540 And so I think a lot of people are projecting.

01:49:02.140 I mean, I think that's the definition of, of fear mongering, right?

01:49:04.760 Fear mongering about World War III or about that this is just going to be like another

01:49:08.300 rock.

01:49:08.860 I don't think you're doing this because I think you actually have some like thoughtful, nuanced

01:49:12.320 analysis, but I think a lot of the voices that are screaming about that on, on social

01:49:16.420 media, like that is the definition of fear mongering.

01:49:18.680 It's essentially, they're scared.

01:49:19.440 Like claiming Iran will get a nuke and start nuking people?

01:49:22.180 They're, they're, huh?

01:49:25.400 It's fear mongering to claim that Iran will get a nuclear weapon and use it.

01:49:28.000 No, no, no, no, no, no.

01:49:28.760 I'm saying, I'm saying that, that people screaming about World War III and, and.

01:49:33.780 Right, like if Iran got a nuke and started nuking people, it would start World War III,

01:49:36.520 right?

01:49:37.700 Right.

01:49:38.020 Or, or no, just that if there was, no, just there, like, look at, look at Tucker Carlson's

01:49:43.300 assessment from like a few weeks ago.

01:49:45.140 If he, he said it very clearly, the first week of war with Iran, the first week, not

01:49:52.840 America's war, but just war, any strike.

01:49:56.500 Wasn't he talking about US involvement?

01:49:58.640 Thousands.

01:49:59.320 He just, he was, I remember reading the newsletter and, and, and seeing that, or the post or whatever.

01:50:04.980 And it was just like the first week of war with Iran, right?

01:50:08.420 A war with Iran, that this would be catastrophic, that this would be so catastrophic that our

01:50:13.800 economy would be destroyed.

01:50:15.440 We'd have 30, $40 gasoline.

01:50:18.580 Thousands of American troops would die within the first week.

01:50:23.040 Well, now we do have.

01:50:23.920 For a ground intervention, right?

01:50:25.360 No, no, strikes.

01:50:27.140 Now we do have war.

01:50:28.360 Now we do have war with Iran.

01:50:30.020 It was coordinated with Trump, as he said.

01:50:32.700 I'm, I'm prepared to trust our president.

01:50:35.400 It's all based on fear mongering.

01:50:35.620 He's been the most transparent president, right?

01:50:38.560 And none of that has happened.

01:50:40.300 It's all based on fear mongering.

01:50:41.500 That's my point.

01:50:42.740 That's all fear mongering because we've been so traumatized by what happening.

01:50:47.000 No, saying that kind of stuff is fear mongering.

01:50:48.480 You keep saying World War III is going to start unless we invade.

01:50:51.840 No, no, I've never said that.

01:50:52.960 Well, but you have said that they're-

01:50:54.280 You said Iran would nuke trade routes and, and all these other things immediately if they

01:50:58.280 got a nuclear weapon.

01:50:59.000 Trade routes?

01:51:00.120 Yes.

01:51:00.400 No, no, no.

01:51:00.820 That's not what I said.

01:51:01.640 I said, the insurance costs and the risk models would change drastically.

01:51:05.000 And I asked you specifically, will Iran use a nuclear weapon if they get it?

01:51:08.680 And I, against Israel?

01:51:10.620 I believe yes.

01:51:11.560 Okay, will that trigger a mad response?

01:51:15.260 Mutually sure, just right.

01:51:17.000 You mean like an arms race and all that kind of stuff?

01:51:19.240 No, no, no.

01:51:19.280 Like, does anyone in the world anywhere retaliate against Iran if they nuke Israel?

01:51:24.020 Oh.

01:51:25.160 Well, yeah.

01:51:25.560 But to me, the World War III, but I've never once said that any, I've never, I've never

01:51:31.060 said the words World War III, except in the context of other people talking about it.

01:51:35.640 So your point is, Israel will get turned to glass by a nuclear bomb, and Western powers

01:51:40.240 will go, well, I guess Israel's gone.

01:51:43.060 No, I think that-

01:51:44.160 Oh, you think the West will be like, we're going to destroy Iran now?

01:51:46.600 Yeah, I think that would start a global war, but I don't think-

01:51:49.400 Oh, so World War III.

01:51:50.200 But I don't think, but Tim, these are two different scenarios.

01:51:54.780 What we're doing now is preventing that from happening.

01:51:59.000 Right, you are fear-mongering people telling them, unless we strike Iran, there will be

01:52:05.940 a global war.

01:52:06.880 That's what you said.

01:52:08.000 Well, no.

01:52:08.700 That is called fear-mongering.

01:52:09.820 Well, I believe that, that whether or not Iran has nukes, they are still a national security

01:52:16.600 threat to the United States, based on what already has happened.

01:52:20.180 Right, so are they going to get a nuke if we do nothing?

01:52:23.780 If America does nothing, or if Israel does nothing?

01:52:25.680 If the world, anybody.

01:52:26.180 If we just leave them alone, do they get a nuke?

01:52:27.700 I believe, I believe they are.

01:52:29.140 And then they're going to use it, right?

01:52:30.320 Yes.

01:52:30.720 And they will nuke Israel?

01:52:32.080 They've said they will.

01:52:33.080 Okay, so you believe, do you believe they will?

01:52:34.840 I believe them.

01:52:35.760 I've listened to them.

01:52:36.480 Okay, and then there will be a response from the West on Iran, which will lead to a global

01:52:39.800 war, right?

01:52:40.340 Okay, but Tim, I'm not sitting here saying, I'm not going, I'm not going online or on

01:52:46.120 podcasts or on the news saying, saying, like, you asked me right at the beginning, what

01:52:50.920 should America do?

01:52:51.720 I said, it depends how things play out.

01:52:53.440 If I was fear-mongering, then what I would have been doing is been coming onto your show

01:52:58.060 and being like, we have to strike Iran.

01:53:01.220 That's the only option.

01:53:02.300 You did come on the show and say that Iran has thousands of proxies in the United States

01:53:07.440 waiting and ready to strike at any point.

01:53:09.220 I didn't say thousands.

01:53:10.480 I said hundreds.

01:53:12.220 Okay.

01:53:13.820 Dozens, some say hundreds.

01:53:15.220 You cast Iran as this global threat working every-

01:53:20.120 No doubt.

01:53:20.620 Right.

01:53:20.940 No doubt they are.

01:53:21.740 Which I think leads people to define this as fear-mongering.

01:53:26.160 And I think if anybody has just been looking, okay, there are the- I am looking at the

01:53:31.380 past, not the future.

01:53:33.220 I'm looking at what they have done in the past.

01:53:35.940 Already, people who are fear-mongering are talking about things that could happen in

01:53:40.520 the future.

01:53:41.300 Like you.

01:53:41.540 I'm only talking about things that we know has already happened.

01:53:44.940 And that is what we should prevent.

01:53:47.460 What Iranian proxy groups exist in the United States that have killed the Americans?

01:53:50.260 Who has Iran nuked already?

01:53:51.320 I'm talking about the sleeper cells in the United States.

01:53:53.780 Who has Iran nuked?

01:53:54.580 That already exist.

01:53:55.520 We know they exist.

01:53:57.080 Who have they nuked?

01:53:59.480 They're different.

01:54:00.980 They- What are you talking about?

01:54:02.500 You said you're not talking about what they're going to do, what they've already done.

01:54:05.680 And I said, who have they nuked?

01:54:07.220 You said they will nuke Israel and that you're not talking about-

01:54:10.440 I believe that they will nuke Israel.

01:54:11.740 So you're talking about things they might do, not things they've already done.

01:54:14.160 Okay.

01:54:14.480 So your argument is that by me saying that they might nuke Israel and we have to-

01:54:19.300 Yeah, they will.

01:54:19.740 And we have-

01:54:20.360 Yeah, I believe they will.

01:54:21.340 So don't say might, say will.

01:54:24.060 No difference.

01:54:24.740 But is there a possibility that they won't?

01:54:27.160 Of course, depending on how things play out, especially now.

01:54:32.140 But of course there's a possibility.

01:54:33.260 These are important distinctions.

01:54:34.260 Of course there's a possibility, but I believe that they will, based on all of my research

01:54:40.020 and based on-

01:54:41.440 My point is-

01:54:42.580 So are you saying that that is fear-mongering?

01:54:46.180 The issue is that you are- these are straw man arguments that you are excluding yourself

01:54:51.280 from your own disdain.

01:54:52.840 You're saying they are claiming bad thing will happen while you are also claiming bad

01:54:57.320 thing will happen.

01:54:57.960 I don't care if it's right or wrong.

01:54:59.360 The issue is stop- it's like willfully obtuse.

01:55:02.680 Like you don't realize you're telling people World War III is around the corner unless we

01:55:06.280 do something.

01:55:07.020 Then you're accusing other people of fear-mongering.

01:55:09.560 Okay.

01:55:10.080 So you're essentially saying that both camps, people who would potentially support intervention

01:55:15.820 and people who never support intervention are saying that there's going to be World War

01:55:20.180 III, both of them, and so they're both fear-mongering?

01:55:22.160 You said people like Tucker are fear-mongering by claiming that if we get into war, thousands

01:55:27.100 of soldiers will die.

01:55:28.520 And I said, but you're claiming World War III will happen if we don't.

01:55:31.940 How is that not also fear-mongering?

01:55:33.440 Okay, that is- I'll tell you how it's different.

01:55:36.440 Me saying that I believe that Iran will use a nuke at some point when they have a nuke against

01:55:42.100 Israel based on the fact that they've said this is so different than saying in the first

01:55:48.100 week that we have an Iran war, thousands of Americans will die.

01:55:51.320 Our economy will collapse.

01:55:52.980 Gasoline will be $30.

01:55:55.840 One of them is laying out a specific scenario that they are certain of based on proof and

01:56:05.580 evidence that they clearly do not have, but they are trying to convince you of.

01:56:09.520 And another and another and another one is saying that based on what these people have

01:56:14.380 said, I believe that a general situation could arise that is a direct causation between having

01:56:22.120 a nuclear bomb and using a nuclear bomb.

01:56:24.620 Same thing.

01:56:25.100 Those are like, those are connected.

01:56:26.760 Literally the same thing.

01:56:27.180 So, for one, we can argue-

01:56:30.460 One to me is making incredible, is associating things that you're trying to-

01:56:37.900 Do troops die in war?

01:56:39.260 You're associating them with nothing in the middle that's connecting them.

01:56:43.080 And the other thing is, is making a possibility based on an association that everybody would

01:56:49.120 understand.

01:56:49.560 In world war, are economies in shambles?

01:56:52.660 Are they disrupted?

01:56:54.620 The answer is yes.

01:56:55.360 Well, sure, but it's right.

01:56:56.040 Do soldiers die?

01:56:56.500 The answer is yes.

01:56:57.560 Okay.

01:56:57.860 We also have-

01:56:58.860 Will, but even Will would agree with me that it's a ridiculous assessment to say that in

01:57:03.060 the first week of a strike on Iran, our economy would collapse.

01:57:07.120 Is that what he said?

01:57:07.600 Just a strike?

01:57:08.820 Yes.

01:57:09.780 I don't think it's ridiculous to say that in the first weeks of a U.S.-Iran war, thousands

01:57:15.160 of soldiers could die.

01:57:16.620 We have-

01:57:17.360 Why don't you look it up?

01:57:18.040 We have a very recent historical example of what we thought would be a fast, limited military

01:57:24.960 intervention growing into a quagmire that distracted U.S. national security priorities and got

01:57:33.520 a lot of Americans killed.

01:57:34.900 We're not just associating everything that happens in the Middle East with the war in Iraq.

01:57:39.320 We're, I think, drawing some reasonable conclusions about what happens when we think we have the

01:57:45.900 event, the chain of eventuality.

01:57:47.700 Well, I-

01:57:48.140 He didn't give a timeline.

01:57:49.540 He said thousands of Americans would die.

01:57:51.200 We'd lose the-

01:57:51.880 This isn't the one I'm talking about.

01:57:52.760 Okay.

01:57:53.040 Then I don't know what you're saying.

01:57:54.640 It might have been on his newsletter.

01:57:55.560 I can't remember if it was a long poster on the newsletter.

01:57:57.260 I'm sure if you just Google, like, Tucker, $30 gasoline or $40 gasoline or something, it'll

01:58:05.040 come up.

01:58:05.680 Or maybe not, because it's a newsletter, but I'm sure somebody posted the newsletter.

01:58:08.480 I mean, the price of oil was going up-

01:58:10.480 Yeah, and then it dropped.

01:58:11.460 ...before yesterday, right, when Trump said that there would be a-

01:58:14.980 Look, the difference is, but the difference is, well, I'm not saying that we shouldn't

01:58:18.580 consider those, those, those quadriors in the past, but the difference is, is-

01:58:23.700 Let me, let me, let me, sorry, just don't let me read it.

01:58:25.080 A few days ago, Tucker Carlson predicted what would happen after a strike on Iran's nuclear

01:58:28.020 facilities.

01:58:29.060 Thousands of Americans killed in the first week, collapse of our economy, $30 gasoline,

01:58:32.940 then a world war where China and all of BRICS joins in to support them, writing, and then

01:58:37.940 there's the question of the war itself.

01:58:39.280 Iran may not have nukes, but it has a fearsome arsenal of ballistic missiles, many of which are

01:58:42.920 aimed at U.S. military installations in the Gulf, as well as at our allies at a critical

01:58:46.560 energy infrastructure.

01:58:47.500 The first week of war with Iran could easily kill thousands of Americans.

01:58:51.360 It could also collapse our economy as surging oil prices trigger unmanageable inflation.

01:58:56.380 Consider the effects of gasoline.

01:58:57.600 Oh, he said could several times, just like you.

01:59:02.220 Oh.

01:59:02.480 And like, who cares if it's in the first week or the fifth week?

01:59:05.600 Okay.

01:59:05.900 This happening is a, is a real possibility and a bad thing.

01:59:08.960 Okay.

01:59:09.340 Okay.

01:59:09.620 You're right.

01:59:09.980 No, you're right.

01:59:10.420 He said it could.

01:59:11.740 He didn't say it will.

01:59:13.020 You're absolutely right.

01:59:14.140 Could to easily kill thousands of Americans.

01:59:17.900 Okay.

01:59:18.840 I stand corrected.

01:59:23.040 And I want to clarify, I'm not saying your point about Iran nuking Israel is wrong.

01:59:27.520 I was only taking issue with you saying one side was using fear and the other side was

01:59:31.000 not.

01:59:31.220 Well, I just think that there's certain, Tim, I think that there's certain like slogans

01:59:35.460 that are very trendy now to use.

01:59:38.120 And I don't think that they're based on honest assessments.

01:59:42.140 And I think like World War III, like is one.

01:59:45.060 I think I'm not dying for Israel is another one.

01:59:48.400 And I think, you know, regime change is another one.

01:59:51.140 These are words that-

01:59:51.860 But those are strawmans that I don't-

01:59:53.520 They've just, no, well, I'm not saying you're doing this.

01:59:55.720 And obviously we need to consider, we need to talk about regime change and all that kind

01:59:59.380 of stuff.

01:59:59.640 But like people are now redefining regime, the way that they're using these words like regime

02:00:04.140 change, they're basically saying that now like any military action that results in a different

02:00:12.320 government is now like regime change.

02:00:14.680 You know what I mean?

02:00:15.240 Like they're-

02:00:15.620 What's the opposite of fear mongering?

02:00:18.460 Calm mongering?

02:00:19.340 I'm going to calm monger.

02:00:20.520 Guys, if we-

02:00:22.020 No, it's Pollyannish.

02:00:23.120 Whether we strike Iran or not, literally nothing ever happens.

02:00:27.340 Well, that was, I think Michael Knowles tweeted the other day, he just had a tweet and it

02:00:30.940 just said, so many pannikins.

02:00:32.940 This is great.

02:00:33.740 Nothing will ever happen.

02:00:35.240 Well, I hear a lot of people kind of urge folks.

02:00:39.180 I think they're talking about perhaps people like me who don't necessarily, who want us

02:00:44.560 to think long and hard about U.S. military intervention.

02:00:48.600 I don't think it's panicking to lay out the risks of U.S. military action in this conflict.

02:00:56.600 It's not.

02:00:57.260 It's not.

02:00:57.800 I don't think Michael Knowles is-

02:00:59.780 I just think these slogans are being used in much the way, in a hysterical way that

02:01:04.400 we often mock the left for.

02:01:06.260 I don't think World War III will happen if we bunker bust Iran.

02:01:11.240 I don't think airstrikes will lead to an expanded war because I don't see anybody wanting to-

02:01:17.080 China's not going to arrest Beijing over Fordo.

02:01:21.540 No way.

02:01:21.840 They'll be mad.

02:01:22.660 There will be repercussions, but I don't see it escalating into World War III.

02:01:24.760 There was a lot of people in conversations on Tucker's show and Candace's show and stuff

02:01:28.340 like that that were talking about how Russia would defend Iran.

02:01:32.400 And I'm sitting there listening and I'm like, are you guys insane?

02:01:36.840 Don't you think, though, that if Russia saw the United States, let's say the Guardian was

02:01:43.280 right and we do drop a tactical nuclear weapon on Fordo, I mean, there is no doubt in my mind

02:01:51.500 that Russia has the- I don't know if they have the justification, but in their mind,

02:01:55.620 they have the logical justification to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

02:02:00.440 I don't think so.

02:02:01.320 I think that's a very good possibility, but you guys are bringing scenarios.

02:02:05.000 You guys are talking about scenarios, like we started this whole conversation talking

02:02:08.440 about a scenario that in my mind was not one of the scenarios that I was thinking in terms

02:02:15.440 of people talking about World War III.

02:02:17.920 Do you know what I mean?

02:02:18.460 Like it wasn't tactical nukes.

02:02:20.600 It was using bunker busting bombs or maybe a commando raid or maybe Israel using their own

02:02:27.100 bombs.

02:02:27.640 It wasn't actually dropping a nuke on Fordo, right?

02:02:33.080 I think that things like that have- there's a different order of magnitude in terms of the

02:02:38.320 consequences for our enemies and for our allies.

02:02:41.560 And I think if, like Tim said, if it's just a strike or bunker busting bombs, I think anybody

02:02:47.940 who says that Russia would get involved over that is just so ignorant about, you know, the

02:02:54.860 bandwidth that Russia can handle right now and also Russia's relationship with Iran.

02:02:58.100 Russia just said, yesterday, they just said, sorry, we're not even going to hide you.

02:03:03.340 We're not even going to provide you safe passage.

02:03:06.060 And then the Ayatollahs came out and they're like, we're never going to forget this.

02:03:10.060 I think mutually assured destruction has been twisted beyond its original meaning.

02:03:15.060 And I don't believe it currently exists necessarily.

02:03:18.460 Mutually assured destruction was largely in reference to the Soviet Union and the United

02:03:22.560 States and that if either fired nukes on each other, it would cause just every ICBM flying

02:03:28.100 through the air.

02:03:28.840 If the U.S. were to nuke Iran, at Fordo specifically, I don't believe Russia would fire a nuke in

02:03:36.360 Ukraine.

02:03:36.900 I think Russia would fire a nuke in Ukraine if they felt it would give them an advantage

02:03:40.580 even right now.

02:03:42.080 The idea that a nation would sacrifice its capital for some other nation, particularly

02:03:47.380 Iran, I think is silly.

02:03:49.100 I don't think they would either, but I think that depending on when it happened and where

02:03:54.880 Russia was in Ukraine, I think that could change their assessment.

02:03:58.340 I think there's nothing stopping Russia from using nukes right now.

02:04:04.100 No one in Europe or the United States is going to be like, time to go nuke Moscow because they

02:04:08.880 bombed a battlefield or a rural area of Ukraine.

02:04:12.300 It's just not going to happen.

02:04:12.960 I agree with you, but that doesn't, I think you're still undercounting the justification

02:04:18.740 Russia would see to ratchet up the own weapons that they feel comfortable using in Ukraine.

02:04:26.540 Yeah.

02:04:26.680 Will saying that essentially Russia would be able to say to the world that even though

02:04:32.020 they don't really care what the world thinks of them, they know that in that case, they

02:04:37.880 could get away with it.

02:04:38.720 And it's largely, I agree, it's largely about what trade they can maintain because what does

02:04:43.620 global image really matter to a country at war?

02:04:46.640 Russia needs supplies.

02:04:48.380 And if they're seen as the first actor in a nuclear strike, they may get supplies cut

02:04:52.640 off even from China.

02:04:54.040 But no, then I would agree to a certain extent that there's a probability, should the US use

02:04:58.140 a nuke, Russia might be like, don't look at us.

02:04:59.920 We didn't start this.

02:05:00.600 But I don't, I don't imagine a scenario that makes sense where, you know, we nuke Iran and

02:05:05.660 then Russia is like, ah, and then they fire on Ukraine and then Pakistan start firing at

02:05:09.900 each other.

02:05:10.480 Right, right, right.

02:05:11.260 But that's, right, right.

02:05:12.300 But it would, but that's not how world wars usually work.

02:05:16.340 They are usually, there are usually periods where they're just, you know, they're little

02:05:21.100 regional wars and there's just conflicts going on in all these different areas, but they

02:05:27.180 have been brought about because of some sort of action in a totally different region.

02:05:30.960 You know what?

02:05:31.220 I'm, I'm done arguing.

02:05:32.200 I'm just, I'm, I'm pro nuclear war now.

02:05:34.260 I'm done with all the arguments.

02:05:35.540 Everybody should just fire all the nukes now because it's the argument I can't stand.

02:05:39.740 There you go.

02:05:40.220 And then we can live like it's Fallout, you know?

02:05:42.300 You guys see that show on Amazon?

02:05:43.280 It was pretty good.

02:05:44.080 What show?

02:05:44.840 Fallout.

02:05:47.120 It's a video game, but they made a TV show.

02:05:49.260 Life After a Nuclear Apocalypse.

02:05:50.600 Yeah, start digging.

02:05:51.480 Yeah, we can all go live in bunkers.

02:05:52.540 So interestingly, this, the subway system in Ukraine is like 300 feet underground.

02:05:59.140 Oh, just perfect.

02:06:00.400 Because the Soviets built it, right?

02:06:01.800 And because, because of fear of nuclear war.

02:06:04.520 Man, you got to go down so many escalators.

02:06:06.400 It's crazy.

02:06:07.160 Oh my gosh.

02:06:07.460 How long does that take?

02:06:09.140 To get down there?

02:06:10.180 Yeah.

02:06:10.620 No, it's not long.

02:06:11.260 It's just like five escalators.

02:06:13.340 So it's like two or three minutes.

02:06:14.740 Oh yeah.

02:06:15.180 Oh, but it's like five full escalators.

02:06:17.240 Yeah.

02:06:17.560 But that's, I guess.

02:06:18.600 It's wild.

02:06:19.000 I guess, right.

02:06:19.660 It's not a lot of time, but it is like, if you think about,

02:06:22.540 taking five escalators down to get to the subway, that is like a ton of escalators.

02:06:26.700 Yeah.

02:06:27.020 It's a few minutes where it's like in New York, you run on the stairs in 30 seconds.

02:06:30.520 You're there.

02:06:31.200 Yeah.

02:06:31.520 Yeah.

02:06:31.680 It's pretty wild.

02:06:32.620 Yeah.

02:06:32.840 And they're beautiful too.

02:06:34.400 Not all of them, but they're like, they take care of their subways.

02:06:37.880 They make them look fancy.

02:06:38.800 You've been there?

02:06:39.420 Are you saying you want to move to Ukraine?

02:06:41.100 You know, I did.

02:06:41.740 I actually considered it back in like 2014 or 15 because of how cheap it is to live there

02:06:46.380 and the time zone and the, the, like the news reporting.

02:06:50.060 I was doing field, field work on the ground, but, uh, it's why a lot of American tech companies

02:06:54.200 had software developers in Ukraine before.

02:06:56.620 Yeah.

02:06:56.740 Because you pay them 60, $70,000 a year and they're Kings.

02:06:59.260 Yep.

02:06:59.920 And then there you go.

02:07:00.880 Oh, interesting.

02:07:01.760 Yeah.

02:07:02.320 Well, we're about rounding things out.

02:07:03.840 This has been a lot of fun.

02:07:04.660 Uh, do you want to, any final thoughts or where people can find you?

02:07:08.080 Uh, I'm pretty active on X.

02:07:09.740 It's just my last name and my first name switched.

02:07:13.140 So at Raya Karis and yeah, that's basically it.

02:07:17.420 All right.

02:07:17.780 Thanks for having me.

02:07:19.020 Yeah.

02:07:19.520 Yeah.

02:07:19.740 Thank you to both of you.

02:07:21.660 Um, I'm at William Tebow on X.

02:07:24.400 Check out the Claremont Institute and, uh, you know, think about how things can change

02:07:30.660 in the next few weeks.

02:07:32.420 Yeah.

02:07:32.840 I'm hoping this is a big ask.

02:07:33.920 Trump gets under the table and shuts it all down.

02:07:36.440 I hope it doesn't.

02:07:37.040 But, but I, I, I'm actually thinking based on the news that we're heading towards some

02:07:39.820 kind of U S strike.

02:07:40.720 So we'll see.

02:07:41.560 But my friends, we're going to be sending you off to hang out with a friend, Jeremy

02:07:44.120 Hambly over the quarter ring.

02:07:45.580 So don't forget to smash that like button, share the show with everyone.

02:07:48.300 You know, we'll be back tonight at 8 PM for Timcast IRL.

02:07:52.560 And maybe there'll be some news developments or maybe it'll be a goofy Friday because there

02:07:56.280 is no news and we're just going to, you know, hang out and have fun.

02:07:58.820 So, uh, you can follow me on X and Instagram at Timcast.

02:08:01.200 Once again, share the show with everyone, you know, and we will see you all

02:08:03.540 tonight.

02:08:03.920 Bye.

02:08:04.380 Bye.

02:08:04.480 Bye.

02:08:04.720 Bye.

02:08:05.100 Bye.

02:08:05.600 Bye.

02:08:05.960 Bye.

02:08:06.900 Bye.

02:08:06.960 Bye.

02:08:21.100 Bye.

02:08:21.240 Bye.

02:08:21.420 Bye.

02:08:22.000 Bye.

02:08:22.120 Bye.

02:08:28.140 Bye.

02:08:28.820 Bye.

The Culture War - Tim Pool - June 20, 2025

U.S. Says NUKING IRAN Is The Only Option, Should The US Intervene？ w⧸ Karys Rhea & Will Thibeau

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