The Culture War - Tim Pool - September 16, 2025


Why Charlie Kirks Assassination Will Start The Coming Civil War ｜ Tim Pool Reacts


Episode Stats

Length

36 minutes

Words per Minute

180.11252

Word Count

6,595

Sentence Count

551

Misogynist Sentences

5

Hate Speech Sentences

10


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.300 Will there be a civil war in the United States? It's an interesting question.
00:00:05.320 Obviously, I've talked about it quite a bit. And let me just switch that real quick.
00:00:09.960 We have this video from two days ago with 430,000 views and no description from Moon.
00:00:16.300 Why Charlie Kirk's assassination will start the coming civil war.
00:00:20.320 Now, even I dare not say it will, because I don't know that.
00:00:26.280 And I've been pretty I I say this in the utmost of I don't know, take it for what I will.
00:00:34.460 I have been correct on so much of what I've predicted and I have not always been correct on everything.
00:00:40.780 I am not clairvoyant, nor am I a super genius.
00:00:44.240 I just read the news so often vague predictions come true.
00:00:48.780 That is to say, the example I've given as of recent, because an old one, was that in September of 2020,
00:00:54.460 I said on my morning show and on TimCast IRL, if Donald Trump loses in November, his supporters are going to storm the White House.
00:01:02.660 They're going to go to D.C. They're going to break in.
00:01:04.320 They're not going to accept this. And of course, I was wrong.
00:01:09.820 No one in November stormed the White House.
00:01:12.240 Ah. But I almost got it right.
00:01:18.100 January 2021, only a few months later, Trump supporters stormed the Capitol.
00:01:23.600 Call it whatever you want.
00:01:25.140 The general idea I was correct about, just the specifics I missed.
00:01:31.480 Before.
00:01:33.060 January 6th, but after November, I was called a Looney Tune crackpot.
00:01:36.420 Actually, when I said it was going to happen, I had people on the left being like, Tim Poole's nuts.
00:01:41.600 Yeah, Trump supporters are bad, but they're not going to storm the White House.
00:01:44.000 That'll never happen.
00:01:45.380 Civil war? Get out of here.
00:01:48.300 November came and went and they laughed and said, see, what a lunatic.
00:01:52.660 After January 6th, they said, arrest Tim Poole, subpoena him.
00:01:57.380 He had foreknowledge of January 6th.
00:01:59.960 How about that?
00:02:01.480 My prediction was not that good, but it was close.
00:02:03.920 So they made fun of me until January 6th happened and then said it must have been foreknowledge.
00:02:10.140 Well, I genuinely believe that there is but one path.
00:02:13.600 I watched a video where a guy mocked in front of a big crowd of people,
00:02:19.120 mocked Charlie Kirk and acted like he was getting shot.
00:02:21.620 I just watched a video where a cyclist, a transgender individual threatened to kill a lady,
00:02:28.340 vaguely, not directly.
00:02:30.480 But this person said, we kill Nazis and you're a Nazi.
00:02:33.520 Which, it's a threat of death.
00:02:36.480 A man then physically attacked the lady.
00:02:39.380 The temperature's not coming down.
00:02:40.880 And there is no reality by which anyone is going to effectively simmer down two distinct
00:02:46.740 moral worldviews.
00:02:49.480 And so I look to Moon and I will hear what he has to say.
00:02:53.460 And I will offer my commentary as that Civil War guy.
00:02:56.640 Charlie Kirk's assassination is a tipping point in America.
00:03:02.500 Because Charlie was famous for bringing open unfiltered debate to college campuses.
00:03:07.140 He was in the midst of one of his signature prove me wrong sessions with his wife Erica
00:03:10.960 and two children being present.
00:03:12.600 When on September 10th, a sniper assassinated him.
00:03:16.100 Just days after a Ukrainian refugee was also savagely murdered on a bus in Charlotte during
00:03:21.060 a race motivated attack.
00:03:22.680 And all of this a year after Trump's attempted assassination.
00:03:25.620 Just around the 24th anniversary of 9-11.
00:03:28.480 An attack that united Americans.
00:03:30.520 And yet now, these attacks are dividing America more than we've ever seen before.
00:03:34.900 While most people were shocked by this, thousands also expressed their joy over his death.
00:03:39.180 Some of the media even smeared him.
00:03:41.000 Charlie Kirk is a divisive figure.
00:03:42.880 Polarizing, lightning rod, whatever term you want to use.
00:03:45.600 And even the House couldn't agree to have a moment of silence for him.
00:03:48.860 Which is why this politically motivated terror attack might just be the one that tears America
00:03:53.780 apart.
00:03:54.540 As it seems, a line has now finally been crossed in the country.
00:03:58.120 As his death is a window into how far American political discourse has traveled from division
00:04:03.220 to something far riskier for the entire population.
00:04:06.040 It's why around 43% now believe a civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next 10 years.
00:04:12.140 As we see yet another young 20s politically radicalized guy trying to take down open discussion
00:04:17.100 with bullets.
00:04:17.960 Whether it be Luigi Mangione, Thomas Matthew Crooks, and Tyler Robinson.
00:04:21.680 And making Martyr out of one of America's most famous commentators is only going to radicalize
00:04:26.740 everyone so much more.
00:04:28.320 I will clarify first and foremost, Luigi Mangione is still on trial.
00:04:32.700 And that's an, so there are allegations as of now, and this is an important distinction.
00:04:36.680 Tyler Robinson, according to Kash Patel, effectively confessed.
00:04:39.960 So I think we're going to have an open and shut case on that one.
00:04:42.460 That is important to understand.
00:04:44.360 Because if you followed US politics over the past decade, you've probably seen him at least
00:04:48.060 once.
00:04:48.700 As he was everywhere from Fox News podcasts, college campuses, Trump rallies.
00:04:53.300 He showed Tim Kast.
00:04:55.080 Oh man, this is, it's so brutal.
00:04:57.180 As he was everywhere from Fox News podcast.
00:05:00.440 This is Joe Biden in the background.
00:05:05.420 That's a demonic Joe Biden devouring a little girl.
00:05:09.500 Shout out to G Prime 85's art.
00:05:11.800 Shout out to Charlie Kirk and the Turning Point USA team.
00:05:14.700 This is particularly brutal to have to see, man.
00:05:17.760 That's, you can see, look at this.
00:05:19.460 Where's the chair?
00:05:20.040 Can you see the chair behind me?
00:05:21.040 No, I got the stupid pillow on it.
00:05:22.240 I don't need that pillow.
00:05:23.540 There you go.
00:05:24.560 Look at that.
00:05:26.080 Sitting in the chair, man.
00:05:27.600 College campuses, Trump rallies.
00:05:29.880 He became one of the most recognizable faces in the modern conservative movement, building
00:05:34.520 Turning Point USA at the age of just 18 into a massive operation by the time he died with
00:05:39.800 $55 million in annual revenue.
00:05:42.480 In fact, the last reported revenue, I think was for 23, as they're probably finalizing
00:05:48.240 their 24 taxes now, was $81 million.
00:05:51.180 But I'm going to jump ahead a little bit because I want to hear his argument on civil war.
00:05:55.980 He had it coming because of his views.
00:05:58.740 And many even saw this as a win for the left.
00:06:01.260 Or they just straight out used his death for some other point.
00:06:04.560 All while those on the right demanded total war against the left.
00:06:08.220 Then things became even crazier.
00:06:10.280 When people soon realized when those taken into police custody were just decoys.
00:06:14.660 The first was the 71-year-old George Zinn, a local activist with a decades-long history
00:06:19.560 of showing up to political events across Utah.
00:06:22.080 Witnesses captured videos of police escorting Zinn away from the scene.
00:06:25.620 A uniformed officer was then heard saying on the video he said he shot him, but I don't
00:06:29.500 know.
00:06:30.280 What's that?
00:06:31.300 We don't know if it's him or not.
00:06:34.160 Despite a massive manhunt.
00:06:36.540 That man, of course, lied.
00:06:38.380 And we have this report.
00:06:40.000 He told the cops he shot Charlie in order to give the real shooter time to escape.
00:06:46.060 Involving federal, state, and local agencies.
00:06:48.060 The actual shooter remained at large for some 48 hours until an extraordinary development.
00:06:53.040 The suspect's own father bravely turned him in.
00:06:55.840 Tyler had confessed the shoot.
00:06:57.140 So this, I, I, look, with respect to Moon in this video, I don't want to play his whole
00:07:01.360 thing.
00:07:01.680 He's doing a great breakdown and everything.
00:07:03.080 I want to get to the civil war arguments specifically.
00:07:06.240 And it looks like so far he's just giving us the general breakdown at the beginning.
00:07:09.880 So let's jump to this portion where it gets a little bit more interesting.
00:07:13.360 Democracy, the danger zone where countries are vulnerable to political violence.
00:07:17.000 Now, people will always naturally disagree on when this started happening and which
00:07:20.520 side of the political spectrum is primarily to blame.
00:07:23.380 And it's no secret that the US political system swings like a pendulum from Democrats
00:07:26.940 and Republicans.
00:07:27.880 But research from the University of Southern California indicates that each side is now
00:07:31.840 further apart than the early 1900s.
00:07:34.440 In fact, America has been more polarized for a longer period than any other major democracy
00:07:38.380 on the planet.
00:07:39.360 In the kind of conditions the US might be heading for, evidence suggests that the annual risk
00:07:43.520 for civil war conflict reaches 4% per year.
00:07:46.280 That seems lower face value, but consider that's a compound risk of 40% over 10 years.
00:07:52.000 And suddenly it doesn't look so small anymore.
00:07:54.520 So let me give you an example.
00:07:56.580 In the 1820s, there was conversation about the possibility of a civil war breaking out in
00:08:00.780 the United States.
00:08:02.080 The reason I say a conversation about the possibility is that it didn't.
00:08:07.300 And it wasn't that serious.
00:08:08.640 But the conversation between the states was obviously the issue of slavery being hotly debated.
00:08:12.740 You see, the founding fathers actually did not want slavery.
00:08:16.360 Thomas Jefferson wanted to include in the Declaration of Independence that the crown had
00:08:20.560 taken other people from across the world and brought them into the US and used them to levy war
00:08:26.840 for like to create the system that they did not want.
00:08:30.380 However, Jefferson ultimately decided to remove that from one of the initial statements in the
00:08:34.900 declaration as Georgia and South Carolina risked, it risked those states, those colonies at the time,
00:08:42.320 leaving their 13 original colonies.
00:08:45.960 Thus, they would not have the requisite manpower to go up against the crown for independence.
00:08:52.300 Now, admittedly, they didn't to begin with.
00:08:54.640 And it was the French intervention that ultimately helped the United States win.
00:08:57.960 But another important factor is when we refer to the original 13 colonies, there were more
00:09:04.180 than that.
00:09:05.280 Quebec was given the offer to join as the 14th colony as it was a colony under the crown,
00:09:09.820 and it opted not to.
00:09:11.720 Thus, it is a part of Canada.
00:09:13.200 And the 13 original colonies were just the 13 that said, ain't no thing with Joe Kang.
00:09:17.540 So, when we talk about civil war in this country, 1820, it didn't happen.
00:09:25.420 It took until 1861.
00:09:27.580 But still, what many people don't realize is the bleeding Kansas period, which was a seven
00:09:32.360 year period before the beginning of the Civil War, where in various territories, but mostly
00:09:37.700 centered in Kansas, abolitionist and pro-slavery forces were massacring each other.
00:09:44.220 The war was happening.
00:09:45.340 What does that mean?
00:09:45.920 If you take a look at what we're seeing now and the points being made by Moon, good points,
00:09:50.840 by the way, with the utmost respect, a surface level overview.
00:09:56.140 What you see is the conversations that are happening now, as he points out, the 4% compounding
00:10:00.960 factor, 40% over 10 years.
00:10:03.620 Every year, with this polarization, the likelihood of civil war increases.
00:10:08.260 What you need now is a large group of listless young men with no jobs, no purpose, and no
00:10:14.120 families.
00:10:14.560 And fortunately for us, we don't.
00:10:17.480 Oh, we have absolutely that.
00:10:21.240 That's what's terrifying.
00:10:22.940 Now, we may be, as it is 2025, in a similar situation to the 1820s, where the conversation
00:10:27.780 is emerging, but does not reach that level of hyperpolarization.
00:10:32.340 But there are many key differences.
00:10:34.020 The 1820s and 1861.
00:10:36.200 These were sovereign states largely viewing themselves as independent nations, part of
00:10:41.000 a union.
00:10:41.800 Thus, their militaries and their constitutions were supreme in their land, and they viewed
00:10:47.020 themselves as unified.
00:10:48.340 In the United States today, I've lived in California, Seattle, Denver, Chicago, Virginia,
00:10:53.440 West Virginia, New York, New Jersey.
00:10:54.840 See, I've lived all over the place.
00:10:57.360 And I don't consider myself Illinoisan.
00:11:00.820 Most people don't.
00:11:02.100 You had your home, and you lived there, and you died there.
00:11:05.340 That is a major difference.
00:11:07.200 One more compounding factor to all of these details is social media.
00:11:11.540 More and more people are online, talking to each other at lightning speed faster than
00:11:16.460 ever before.
00:11:16.940 So in the 1820s, news traveled by horseback.
00:11:22.080 That meant that you would be sitting on your ranch, tending to your chickens and cows, and
00:11:25.700 you wouldn't hear back about whether or not there was an escalation in political violence
00:11:29.980 or rhetoric for months.
00:11:31.960 In fact, it was years, because for the most part, Congress in session, they got to travel
00:11:37.680 back.
00:11:38.340 News over whatever Congress was doing wouldn't even make it to your town for months.
00:11:42.440 Yes, newsmen would bring newspapers from D.C. or New York and travel the country for money
00:11:48.480 to read the news from three months ago.
00:11:52.040 That's how news traveled.
00:11:53.140 Get this.
00:11:54.480 When the Declaration of Independence was actually signed, which one could argue we call it a
00:11:59.260 revolution, could have been considered a civil war in a sense that you had under one
00:12:04.060 crown, these warring factions, but a revolution in the colonies is a better way to describe it.
00:12:09.360 So the war already broke out, Lexington and Concord.
00:12:11.640 And that was a year just about before the actual signing of the Declaration of Independence.
00:12:16.500 The founding fathers got together and they said, we hereby declare with that Declaration
00:12:21.040 of Independence.
00:12:21.740 It was then put on a boat and it took like three months to make it to England, to Great
00:12:27.340 Britain, to the crown.
00:12:28.620 Then Parliament and the crown go over it and they're like, what's going on?
00:12:31.600 And it took months for a response.
00:12:34.300 That meant they signed it, shipped it off and said, and now we wait.
00:12:37.540 Not anymore.
00:12:38.220 When the statements are made with lightning precision, everyone knows, which means though
00:12:44.420 we are in perhaps an 1820s period, the hyper escalation of rhetoric and threats of violence
00:12:51.180 is rapidly expanding much faster than we saw in the 1820s.
00:12:56.420 So perhaps the killing of Charlie Kirk, one could say, this is bleeding Kansas.
00:13:01.340 Could you deny it?
00:13:02.760 Honest question.
00:13:03.820 You've got murders, violence.
00:13:06.860 We have more political murders now than we've had in the past.
00:13:09.640 I've heard the metric is.
00:13:11.860 So I'm not the academic studying all of the political murders.
00:13:15.520 But Stephen Marr said we are in civil strife.
00:13:18.160 And that was a couple of years ago.
00:13:20.100 That is if you have at least 70 political deaths in your country.
00:13:22.740 It's a big country.
00:13:23.460 So maybe that's hard to say.
00:13:25.760 The estimates right now are around 150 political deaths.
00:13:28.680 So Rudyard Lynch of What If Altist, you were wrong, but close.
00:13:33.620 To be fair, I think he said a thousand.
00:13:36.180 150 this year so far.
00:13:39.000 What does that really mean?
00:13:40.180 I don't know.
00:13:40.820 Because sometimes when they classify political deaths, they say things like a racist guy
00:13:44.340 stabbed a black guy or something.
00:13:46.040 And you're like, was that really political?
00:13:48.360 But online, the rhetoric is rapidly expanding.
00:13:51.780 Let's continue the video from Moon.
00:13:53.680 And I always want to give a shout out to those that I react to.
00:13:56.240 It's just Moon on YouTube.
00:13:58.580 I recommend you check out the full channel and subscribe to watch his full video.
00:14:01.360 And full credit to Moon.
00:14:02.760 Shout out for your video so far.
00:14:04.540 I think you've done a pretty good job.
00:14:05.920 And let's listen.
00:14:06.900 In Yugoslavia, in the 80s, it was described as one of the largest, most developed, and
00:14:11.540 diverse countries in the Balkans.
00:14:13.420 Different ethnic groups lived in the same neighborhoods, went to the same schools, intermarried
00:14:17.160 freely.
00:14:17.820 It had been a functioning multi-ethnic state for decades.
00:14:20.760 Then the economy started falling apart.
00:14:22.640 And by 1991, Stavino and Croatian were declaring independence.
00:14:26.240 US intelligence predicted Yugoslavia would cease to function as a federal state within a
00:14:30.500 year.
00:14:30.940 And will probably dissolve within two.
00:14:32.620 And that the violence would be intractable and bitter.
00:14:35.100 Over the next few years, more than 100,000 people were killed and 2 million were forced
00:14:39.180 to flee their homes.
00:14:40.540 Neighbors who had lived peacefully together for generations started slaughtering each other.
00:14:44.480 And you can question whether America is really comparable to other countries that had civil
00:14:48.140 wars.
00:14:48.760 But the basic pattern is developing.
00:14:50.720 Countries don't usually collapse overnight.
00:14:52.560 They break down slowly, then all at once.
00:14:54.640 Especially when foreign hostile countries do everything they can to make sure this happens.
00:14:59.020 And singular violent events are proven to accelerate the trajectory.
00:15:03.220 Even in historical events as colossally huge as the fall of Rome and World War I.
00:15:07.600 But here's the thing though, we don't even need to speculate with historical parallels
00:15:10.860 when we can see what's happening right now in America.
00:15:13.420 Since 2024, approximately 2,000 National Guard troops have been deployed domestically.
00:15:18.420 Trump signed an executive order directing the National Guard to create specialized military
00:15:22.620 units to quell civil disturbances in American states.
00:15:25.360 That's right.
00:15:25.840 All to be deployed at his command.
00:15:27.460 Retired Major General Randy Manor, a former acting vice chief of the National Guard Bureau,
00:15:32.380 said the administration is trying to desensitize the American people to get used to American
00:15:36.620 armed soldiers and combat vehicles patrolling the streets of America.
00:15:40.180 Trump is allowed to do this.
00:15:42.220 Trump is allowed to deploy National Guard and even the military.
00:15:45.160 However, they can't enforce local laws.
00:15:48.540 There's a law called posse comitatus, which says that you cannot use the military for local
00:15:53.440 law enforcement.
00:15:53.960 However, they can be deployed under the orders of the president.
00:15:55.960 They can protect federal buildings.
00:15:58.240 So they're not enforcing the law.
00:15:59.320 They're just basically doing security.
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00:16:59.340 The Insurrection Act allows the president to deploy the military in the event that an insurrection occurs.
00:17:05.480 That's a simple way of putting it.
00:17:06.880 The easy way to put it is, if local laws are not being enforced,
00:17:11.160 the federal government can use the military to enforce those laws if Trump declares an insurrection.
00:17:16.540 There are two different versions of the Insurrection Act.
00:17:18.480 One was updated.
00:17:19.680 Meanwhile, threats and harassment against local officials jumped over the past few years.
00:17:24.040 The Capitol Police said they had more threats against members of Congress in 2024 than ever before.
00:17:28.880 With even two attempts against Trump himself.
00:17:31.260 When America was just inches away from Trump being dead.
00:17:34.140 And then we can also look at how this division is affecting the population itself.
00:17:37.800 Recent polling shows 65% of Americans feel exhausted when thinking about politics.
00:17:42.560 55% feel angry and only 10% feel hopeful.
00:17:45.540 Most troubling of all, 80% can't agree on basic facts anymore.
00:17:49.360 Most critically, people oppose each other more harshly than ever.
00:17:53.180 43% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats hold very unfavorable views of the opposing party,
00:17:59.100 up from just 17% and 16% in 1994.
00:18:02.740 And this is where it gets so crazy with Charlie Kirk's assassination.
00:18:06.120 When people live in completely different versions of reality,
00:18:09.200 they start seeing political opponents, not as fellow citizens with different views,
00:18:12.960 but as existential threats that need to be taken out.
00:18:15.860 All whipped up and catalyzed by our media environment
00:18:18.440 that has basically created those parallel universes in tangent with social media.
00:18:22.840 Take campus protest events.
00:18:24.400 They regularly turn violent to require riot police and tactical gear to move people along.
00:18:28.840 Or the storming of the Capitol or the BLM riots.
00:18:31.160 Now, let's just pause and point out.
00:18:33.780 The storming of the Capitol was one bad thing, and it was a bad thing.
00:18:37.320 But the BLM riots, the college protests are an ongoing thing for my entire life.
00:18:41.760 In fact, in the 2000s, I was a part of these anti-war protests,
00:18:45.380 marching through the streets of Chicago.
00:18:47.520 Everybody was pissed off.
00:18:49.340 Then when Obama got in, they seemed to not really care about the war all that much anymore.
00:18:53.640 Until the crisis happened with financing and housing,
00:18:56.680 then people started to get upset, leading us a couple of years later to occupy Wall Street,
00:19:01.580 for which I was there.
00:19:03.920 I documented it.
00:19:05.020 I filmed it.
00:19:05.460 I live streamed it.
00:19:07.180 There has every year of my life, since I was a young teenager,
00:19:11.820 I can't speak to being 12 or younger because you had the Al Gore Bush thing,
00:19:17.840 leftist liberal protests, nothing from the right.
00:19:22.960 Brooks Brothers, they say.
00:19:24.120 I don't even know about that, to be honest, not at the time.
00:19:27.540 Now, here we are today.
00:19:29.180 The right is not going out in the street, engaging in this violence.
00:19:32.080 But that's neither here nor there.
00:19:34.040 The question right now, a good point brought up by Moon.
00:19:39.200 The polarization and the bifurcation.
00:19:42.740 What we are looking at is two universes,
00:19:46.220 both sides seeing each other as an existential threat.
00:19:49.300 And that's true.
00:19:51.060 It doesn't matter what you think is true.
00:19:52.520 It doesn't matter.
00:19:53.780 You know, my favorite example of this is,
00:19:55.920 I state all the time what the truth doesn't matter to a hyper-polarized people
00:20:03.620 because they determine what's true from their world.
00:20:07.280 If you grow up and all you see over and over and over again are videos of police brutality,
00:20:12.980 then you believe it's a pervasive problem and it's the worst problem imaginable.
00:20:16.040 If you've never seen those videos, you'd be like, what are you even talking about?
00:20:20.680 So, when you come from a traditional American moral worldview,
00:20:24.260 you're going to say child sex changes are bad.
00:20:26.560 If you come from a progressive adaptive view built largely on social media algorithms,
00:20:30.760 you're going to say, what's the problem?
00:20:32.100 This is an existential crisis because the traditional moral worldview of America,
00:20:37.660 and I'm not even talking about Christian tradition.
00:20:40.260 I'm talking about liberals and Democrats from like 10 years ago would be you don't give kids sex changes.
00:20:48.420 But now it's become mainstream and pervasive among the progressive left.
00:20:52.340 The traditional American view sees that as an existential threat to our existence.
00:20:58.840 Children must be able to grow up free from this mutilation,
00:21:03.640 and otherwise they can't even reproduce.
00:21:06.120 And if we can't reproduce, what do we do?
00:21:08.720 And the left says abortions for all, sex changes for whoever.
00:21:14.020 And, well, if they can't have kids, so what?
00:21:16.100 Immigration is a solution.
00:21:17.460 But immigration threatens the fabric of the nation
00:21:19.480 because the worldview of those migrants is also drastically different from traditional Americans.
00:21:24.940 Thus, no matter which side you're on, you face an existential threat.
00:21:30.140 It's not so much about who is right or wrong or what is true.
00:21:32.860 It's that if you are a progressive liberal, yes, Charlie Kirk,
00:21:36.780 if he were to win politically, your worldview would be marginalized.
00:21:41.880 He didn't want to kill anybody or anything like that.
00:21:44.120 But he certainly would say you can't give kids sex changes,
00:21:46.460 which means if you live in a world where you deem it mandatory,
00:21:50.200 you were facing an existential threat to your ideology.
00:21:53.600 Not to you personally, but that's what they said.
00:21:56.340 They want us to not exist.
00:21:57.920 Respect existence or expect resistance.
00:22:01.200 That's how they played it.
00:22:02.700 Depending on which news anyone consumes, they see completely different events.
00:22:06.700 And we all know by now how social media and its algorithms play into this,
00:22:10.020 as there's barely any money to be made from nuanced coverage
00:22:12.660 that says this was complicated with multiple factors.
00:22:15.260 Now you need two or more sides to contribute to any debates.
00:22:18.540 But a healthy debate needs a middle ground.
00:22:20.500 And that's what America has completely lost,
00:22:22.640 mostly because of the way the media treats issues.
00:22:25.840 To exemplify what he's saying,
00:22:28.100 I'm going to show you this post from the Joe Rogan subreddit.
00:22:30.820 This was done intentionally by me.
00:22:32.660 And anybody who follows me on X knows this.
00:22:34.300 You can follow me on X at Timcast.
00:22:35.820 Subscribe to this channel, by the way.
00:22:38.340 At Joe Rogan put,
00:22:39.320 Tim Poole with great takes as always.
00:22:41.240 And it's a tweet for me that says,
00:22:43.520 it should be illegal to not believe in God.
00:22:46.700 It's an archived post.
00:22:48.480 The top comment,
00:22:49.160 this sounds like Sharia law to me.
00:22:51.860 I realize I was being reductive,
00:22:53.240 but I was referring to places where legislation is based on Sharia.
00:22:55.840 I thought that would be implied by context.
00:22:57.800 That's the top comment.
00:22:59.520 The next one says,
00:23:00.140 it should also be illegal to cosplay as a leukemia patient
00:23:02.240 for the better part of two decades.
00:23:03.480 But here we are, Tim.
00:23:04.940 The next one says,
00:23:05.980 I would genuinely like to know what his appeal is.
00:23:07.920 He's always complaining about something, blah, blah, blah.
00:23:09.660 Ah, yes, because every great theologian will tell you
00:23:12.960 that God wants people to be forced to worship him.
00:23:15.240 Indeed.
00:23:16.180 Now, the funny thing is,
00:23:18.060 you got to scroll down.
00:23:19.520 People need to understand that
00:23:20.420 since Twitter started paying its users
00:23:21.640 for more views and engagements,
00:23:22.840 Tim Poole has been like this.
00:23:24.440 Lies!
00:23:25.220 I have been like this the whole time.
00:23:27.200 I have always been,
00:23:28.420 I will refrain from swearing,
00:23:29.480 an ish head who pokes the bear
00:23:32.160 and makes a point.
00:23:33.260 Because I ain't on your team,
00:23:34.180 I ain't on anyone's team.
00:23:36.140 Let's see how far you got to go.
00:23:38.340 It should be illegal to be that stupid.
00:23:40.700 Witch God.
00:23:41.840 Poole is perma-mad.
00:23:42.840 The party of freedom.
00:23:44.780 Let's see.
00:23:45.340 Hate's having his freedom.
00:23:46.780 Are there any actual cool conservatives?
00:23:48.480 This is where Gen Z.
00:23:49.660 Here's,
00:23:50.200 this is pretty good, actually.
00:23:51.340 It's photoshopped me,
00:23:52.540 morbidly obese.
00:23:53.240 I look like one of the Duck Dynasty guys.
00:23:54.800 I actually think that's pretty good.
00:23:57.760 Amazing.
00:23:59.200 This is the bifurcation of social media.
00:24:03.000 Corrupted syntax, finally.
00:24:04.440 He followed up with a tweet saying
00:24:06.460 believing in God should be illegal,
00:24:08.000 which got far less engagement,
00:24:09.860 which no doubt he pointed to saying,
00:24:11.240 see, they hate religion.
00:24:12.340 But he still didn't get it.
00:24:14.180 Because I made my point.
00:24:16.460 And actually,
00:24:17.120 I think if I sort by controversial,
00:24:19.240 because that's what Reddit's giving you,
00:24:20.920 you might actually see
00:24:21.980 he's making a joke for F's sake.
00:24:25.320 Yep.
00:24:25.940 That's bait.
00:24:27.120 It's downvoted.
00:24:30.400 Tim Pool tweets,
00:24:31.520 I'm not sure why we're posting a tweet
00:24:34.960 from six months ago,
00:24:35.660 but freedom of religion is protected.
00:24:37.500 Blah, blah, blah.
00:24:38.600 He tweeted that right after saying
00:24:39.880 it should be illegal to believe in God,
00:24:41.040 he did this to test the algorithm or something.
00:24:44.400 Correct.
00:24:44.960 But it'll go over everyone's head
00:24:46.260 and they'll only see a surface level
00:24:47.560 and confirm their beliefs
00:24:48.840 with absolutely no hate in their heart.
00:24:51.620 That's right.
00:24:52.980 He's in any petition to make it happen.
00:24:54.620 Blah.
00:24:54.760 You're falling for a troll is more shameful.
00:24:57.980 Reddit upvoted.
00:24:58.940 They ignored that two tweets
00:25:01.740 were put at the exact same time
00:25:03.400 for the purpose of me saying,
00:25:05.740 this is the point.
00:25:07.840 The left is only going to share
00:25:09.960 what makes them mad
00:25:11.220 and they can use to justify what they want.
00:25:13.760 The same is true largely for the right,
00:25:15.840 but not entirely.
00:25:17.220 The reason why I'm more considered
00:25:18.920 to be aligned with the right
00:25:19.900 is because I'm more willing
00:25:21.680 to tell what's true.
00:25:23.520 And that means when the media lies,
00:25:25.280 I will call it out.
00:25:26.800 When they say the right
00:25:27.860 is more responsible for violence,
00:25:28.820 and I say, that's not correct.
00:25:30.180 Here's the stats.
00:25:31.060 They go, he's defending the right,
00:25:32.520 therefore he's on the right.
00:25:33.600 But if you live in a world of lies,
00:25:35.040 that's what you'll believe.
00:25:35.720 But none of this matters.
00:25:36.980 You can tell me I'm wrong right now.
00:25:38.340 Say, Tim Poole, you're a liar.
00:25:39.880 You're a conservative and a liar.
00:25:41.360 Fine.
00:25:41.760 I don't care.
00:25:42.900 The fact of the matter is,
00:25:44.020 as it pertains to civil war,
00:25:45.560 both sides refuse to believe
00:25:47.980 what is true or what is not true.
00:25:50.200 Now, I certainly think the right
00:25:53.020 has a truth,
00:25:56.160 has a right-wing bias.
00:25:57.840 Reality is a right-wing bias.
00:25:59.320 But it's fine if you think I'm wrong.
00:26:00.920 That proves my point.
00:26:02.360 In which case,
00:26:02.980 at least on this point,
00:26:03.720 I am right.
00:26:04.620 The bifurcation is here.
00:26:06.700 I don't know how YouTube
00:26:07.660 is going to deal with it.
00:26:08.460 It completely dehumanizes
00:26:10.060 those on each side
00:26:11.040 of the political spectrum.
00:26:12.260 And while this isn't exactly new,
00:26:13.920 it's getting so much worse
00:26:15.640 in the last couple of years.
00:26:17.120 And this sort of violence
00:26:18.000 has a nasty habit of snowballing.
00:26:19.940 Take the 2011 shooting
00:26:21.460 of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords.
00:26:23.480 Within hours of the tragedy,
00:26:24.800 both political sides
00:26:25.700 were blaming each other's rhetoric
00:26:26.920 for creating the climate
00:26:27.940 that led to the violence.
00:26:29.180 The shooter turned out
00:26:29.920 to be severely mentally ill
00:26:31.140 with no real coherent
00:26:32.180 political ideology,
00:26:33.540 who actually voted for independence
00:26:34.860 and his friend said
00:26:35.740 wasn't left all right,
00:26:36.880 but that didn't stop
00:26:37.560 the blame game
00:26:38.180 for slogging on for weeks.
00:26:39.580 So Martin Luther King
00:26:40.560 was assassinated.
00:26:41.340 That's a really great point.
00:26:43.460 You can look back
00:26:44.540 at those shootings and say
00:26:45.600 it was not politically motivated,
00:26:47.860 but it led to the bifurcation.
00:26:50.560 The rhetoric that he was,
00:26:52.340 Moon was describing
00:26:53.100 on both sides
00:26:54.140 is the conversation
00:26:55.380 that breeds
00:26:56.340 two distinct political classes
00:26:57.920 in the younger generation.
00:26:59.320 The older generation
00:27:00.460 is more unified,
00:27:01.680 but as time goes on
00:27:02.860 and they age out,
00:27:03.760 you eventually end up
00:27:05.020 with two distinct universes
00:27:06.580 who see the world
00:27:07.680 in entirely different ways
00:27:08.920 and that's how you get civil war.
00:27:11.060 Now, it's not always
00:27:11.780 about two groups, mind you.
00:27:13.100 It's about two umbrella factions.
00:27:15.020 Within these factions
00:27:15.800 of moral worldview,
00:27:16.760 you will get distinct
00:27:17.640 and individual groups
00:27:18.420 with slightly different beliefs.
00:27:20.180 assassinated in 1968,
00:27:22.240 things got way worse.
00:27:23.500 Riots erupted
00:27:24.060 in nearly 200 cities
00:27:25.260 within hours.
00:27:26.220 43 people died,
00:27:27.460 3,500 were injured
00:27:28.900 and 27,000 were arrested
00:27:30.740 over 10 days of violence.
00:27:32.420 And the significance of this though
00:27:33.780 is that three TV networks
00:27:35.220 basically told the same story
00:27:36.840 to the whole country.
00:27:37.800 Correct.
00:27:37.980 People could disagree
00:27:38.520 about solutions
00:27:39.240 while agreeing on basic facts.
00:27:41.100 But America no longer
00:27:42.080 has that luxury anymore,
00:27:43.520 as we can quite clearly see
00:27:44.840 from the world's reaction
00:27:45.840 to Kirk's assassination.
00:27:47.520 It's a horrifying thing to see
00:27:48.940 because back in 2021,
00:27:50.700 MIT researchers
00:27:51.740 working with the Club of Rome
00:27:53.120 updated their modelling
00:27:54.060 and found that we were
00:27:55.140 on track for quote
00:27:55.940 the terminal decline
00:27:56.820 of economic growth
00:27:57.880 within the coming decade.
00:27:59.500 In 2022,
00:28:00.480 they put out the Leicester study
00:28:01.660 called Earth for All
00:28:02.700 that basically asked
00:28:03.540 what happens
00:28:04.080 if we keep doing
00:28:04.880 what we're doing.
00:28:05.800 And their answer
00:28:06.420 wasn't exactly upbeat.
00:28:07.940 They ran two scenarios
00:28:09.060 through 2100,
00:28:10.580 one where we model through
00:28:11.620 too little too late
00:28:12.540 and one where we actually
00:28:13.520 get our act together.
00:28:14.680 The model through scenario
00:28:15.680 shows well-being dropping
00:28:16.760 by 40% in wealthy countries
00:28:18.660 by the 2050s,
00:28:19.860 with regional societal collapse
00:28:21.260 becoming more likely
00:28:22.200 as social tensions,
00:28:23.240 food issues,
00:28:23.820 and environmental problems
00:28:24.820 start feeding each other.
00:28:26.140 Today, we're already
00:28:26.920 half through 2025
00:28:27.920 and guess which scenario
00:28:29.200 we're following?
00:28:30.120 Yes, it's not the optimistic one.
00:28:32.060 And this is all before
00:28:32.900 just the recent events
00:28:33.840 of the last month.
00:28:34.900 And while plenty of people
00:28:35.880 think that these researchers
00:28:37.020 are just professional pessimists
00:28:38.600 who've been predicting
00:28:39.200 doom for decades,
00:28:40.360 their track record
00:28:41.100 has actually been
00:28:41.900 pretty solid so far.
00:28:43.500 But whether you believe
00:28:44.180 their projections or not,
00:28:45.220 the basic point
00:28:46.100 is that when societies
00:28:47.020 are already stressed
00:28:47.980 on multiple fronts,
00:28:49.060 economically,
00:28:49.880 socially,
00:28:50.320 environmentally,
00:28:51.180 they become way more
00:28:52.260 vulnerable to what
00:28:52.980 researchers call
00:28:53.720 shame reactions
00:28:54.440 of bad events.
00:28:55.480 One bad thing happens
00:28:56.480 then another,
00:28:57.200 then another.
00:28:58.020 But it's why it's clear
00:28:58.980 that Kirk's assassination
00:28:59.960 seems to be a huge
00:29:01.640 tipping point in America.
00:29:03.320 Adding so much fuel
00:29:04.360 to the fire of a country
00:29:05.720 where 80% can't agree
00:29:07.260 on the basic facts,
00:29:08.360 where political violence
00:29:09.160 is getting more calculated
00:29:10.440 and targeted,
00:29:11.480 where to be in politics
00:29:12.440 and give your opinions
00:29:13.440 in America means
00:29:14.360 you have a very high chance
00:29:15.680 of being killed,
00:29:16.860 where our media,
00:29:17.600 politics and social media
00:29:18.740 all then reward
00:29:19.500 division over unity,
00:29:20.940 where people are quite
00:29:21.760 literally excited to see
00:29:22.800 their political opponents
00:29:23.780 get taken out.
00:29:25.180 The question isn't really
00:29:26.180 whether America can survive
00:29:27.440 any single political
00:29:28.340 assassination,
00:29:29.260 but whether it can survive
00:29:30.200 becoming the kind of country
00:29:31.460 where political assassinations
00:29:32.840 feel inevitable.
00:29:34.400 Because the most shocking
00:29:35.320 thing about all of this
00:29:36.540 is that not that many people
00:29:37.900 are even surprised.
00:29:39.060 It almost just felt like
00:29:39.880 something like this
00:29:40.420 would happen
00:29:41.140 and it probably
00:29:42.040 will continue to do so.
00:29:45.920 No.
00:29:47.860 Maybe.
00:29:48.940 Maybe for him,
00:29:50.960 you know,
00:29:53.460 maybe that's what he thought.
00:29:56.940 None of us thought
00:29:58.220 that Charlie would be killed
00:29:59.160 like this.
00:30:00.460 And I've done events,
00:30:02.440 we were going to do an event
00:30:03.180 and with all the security
00:30:03.900 threats that I faced,
00:30:05.400 I never thought
00:30:06.780 this was possible.
00:30:07.560 And it is very strange,
00:30:09.160 even right now.
00:30:11.000 It is difficult to believe.
00:30:12.840 Perhaps I'm still in denial.
00:30:14.600 I mean, like, logically,
00:30:15.400 I get it.
00:30:16.400 Charlie's gone.
00:30:17.920 But it feels impossible.
00:30:21.120 For the longest time,
00:30:22.120 I've been warning
00:30:22.600 about the threat of civil war.
00:30:24.780 That the escalation
00:30:26.060 we've seen
00:30:26.660 from street violence
00:30:27.600 would make its way
00:30:28.320 to the highest level
00:30:28.900 of politics.
00:30:30.220 And in 2018 and 19,
00:30:31.720 I was,
00:30:32.060 they told me I was crazy.
00:30:33.660 And I didn't understand
00:30:35.600 how they couldn't see it.
00:30:36.500 There were
00:30:37.840 two distinct
00:30:39.460 moral universes.
00:30:41.560 They were growing.
00:30:42.580 They were expanding.
00:30:43.480 They were young.
00:30:45.020 And eventually,
00:30:45.840 they found their way
00:30:46.500 into politics.
00:30:48.180 I said,
00:30:49.100 sooner or later,
00:30:49.960 this will reach
00:30:50.600 the highest level
00:30:52.120 of politics.
00:30:52.980 They said,
00:30:53.240 no, you're crazy.
00:30:54.380 I was told the security state
00:30:55.580 would never allow
00:30:56.080 a civil war.
00:30:56.940 It doesn't matter
00:30:57.360 if it's the left or right
00:30:58.000 fighting in the street.
00:30:59.340 But what people
00:30:59.620 didn't understand
00:31:00.180 was that I could see it
00:31:00.980 at the grassroots ground level.
00:31:02.760 I had been covering
00:31:03.580 all of this violence
00:31:04.400 for so long
00:31:05.160 that there is a left
00:31:07.000 and a right
00:31:07.500 that completely
00:31:08.760 have different views
00:31:11.040 of what is even true.
00:31:12.800 Like,
00:31:13.360 one plus one equals two.
00:31:15.540 The left believes
00:31:16.780 two plus two equals five.
00:31:18.120 It's not an exaggeration.
00:31:19.880 You may be saying,
00:31:21.380 Tim,
00:31:21.640 that's crazy.
00:31:22.860 No one believes
00:31:23.680 two plus two equals five.
00:31:25.460 I'm going to prove it for you.
00:31:27.340 A massive campaign.
00:31:30.180 Let me see if I could,
00:31:30.960 oh,
00:31:31.080 it's hard to actually
00:31:32.560 pull up the,
00:31:35.240 let's,
00:31:36.300 here we go.
00:31:37.860 I'm going to pull it up.
00:31:39.920 Two plus two equals five
00:31:41.440 was a big debate
00:31:42.800 for a long time.
00:31:46.900 Here we go.
00:31:49.080 How two plus two equals five?
00:31:50.760 It's time to tell.
00:31:53.080 Here's a post from Medium.
00:31:55.000 No,
00:31:55.260 two plus two does not equal five,
00:31:56.340 but that was never the point.
00:31:58.940 In August of 2020,
00:32:00.000 an article popped up
00:32:00.880 in Popular Mechanics
00:32:01.720 why some people think
00:32:02.580 two plus two equals five
00:32:03.720 and why they're right.
00:32:07.320 Popular Mechanics published this.
00:32:09.740 You may be saying,
00:32:10.620 this can't be reality, Tim.
00:32:12.420 They even have an image
00:32:13.080 that's two plus two equals five,
00:32:14.300 really.
00:32:15.680 It's,
00:32:16.100 it's not correct.
00:32:17.440 It was never correct.
00:32:18.860 What they're basically saying is,
00:32:20.580 we can get you to believe falsehoods.
00:32:22.580 And if you live in the world
00:32:23.880 largely of the left,
00:32:24.840 you believe this.
00:32:25.520 This is why I plead
00:32:26.560 and I beg and I cry
00:32:27.920 to so many liberals.
00:32:30.440 Get out of the cult.
00:32:32.480 But they can't.
00:32:34.480 I'll make it simple for you.
00:32:35.920 The argument for why
00:32:36.860 two plus two equals five
00:32:38.020 is because of decimals.
00:32:40.940 They say 2.4 rounds down to two.
00:32:43.680 But 2.4 plus 2.4 equals 4.8,
00:32:47.300 which rounds to five.
00:32:48.380 Therefore,
00:32:48.960 to simplify,
00:32:49.660 two plus two equals five.
00:32:51.100 They also make the argument
00:32:52.160 that if you have
00:32:53.800 two individual cubes
00:32:55.600 and two individual cubes
00:32:56.820 and you put them together,
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00:33:56.280 You have 1, 2, 3, 4,
00:33:58.040 ah, but 5 now
00:34:00.180 because they form a cube
00:34:01.520 unto themselves.
00:34:02.800 Therefore,
00:34:04.180 but it's a lie.
00:34:06.820 Intentionally breaking apart
00:34:08.900 or tricking,
00:34:10.500 like,
00:34:11.720 4.2,
00:34:12.740 what is it?
00:34:13.420 If you're doing 2.25,
00:34:16.440 oh, I'm sorry,
00:34:16.900 1.25
00:34:17.560 and 1.25
00:34:18.980 plus 1.25
00:34:20.600 and 1.25,
00:34:22.020 you get 5.
00:34:23.920 That's the cube argument.
00:34:25.540 We have language
00:34:26.340 to describe this phenomenon.
00:34:28.200 There is no circumstance
00:34:29.160 in which you will write
00:34:30.100 2 plus 2 equals 5.
00:34:31.520 But that's the world we live in.
00:34:33.380 And they'll tell me I'm wrong.
00:34:35.480 My friends,
00:34:36.680 I don't know
00:34:37.900 that civil war
00:34:39.080 is going to happen.
00:34:41.340 I can't predict the future.
00:34:42.400 It is a bold statement
00:34:44.480 of Moon
00:34:45.620 to say why it will.
00:34:48.680 Interesting,
00:34:49.700 nonetheless.
00:34:50.820 He makes a good point
00:34:52.060 and I'm afraid
00:34:53.100 that he's actually correct.
00:34:54.760 In my heart of hearts,
00:34:56.500 I am taking every precaution
00:34:58.840 as if at some point
00:34:59.900 there will be a civil war.
00:35:01.240 Why?
00:35:02.980 Because it doesn't matter.
00:35:04.940 If I live in the middle of nowhere
00:35:06.520 in a secure facility,
00:35:08.420 I'm safe from current threats
00:35:09.740 which exist.
00:35:10.940 If civil war breaks out,
00:35:12.180 I'm much safer here
00:35:13.060 than I would be
00:35:13.780 living in a big city.
00:35:15.520 If civil war doesn't break out,
00:35:17.700 I got a skate park.
00:35:19.000 I got a big open field
00:35:20.180 to ride around
00:35:20.680 my little dirt bikes on
00:35:21.800 and can get a dog
00:35:23.260 and it's not bad
00:35:24.820 living in the country.
00:35:26.400 So,
00:35:26.900 the actions I take
00:35:28.900 are in no way
00:35:30.000 detrimental.
00:35:31.920 And if it turns out
00:35:32.620 I am wrong,
00:35:33.220 it won't matter
00:35:33.780 because I'm living good
00:35:35.180 out here in the boonies
00:35:36.200 as it is.
00:35:37.620 If you live in a big city,
00:35:39.520 I gotta be honest,
00:35:40.560 even in current circumstances,
00:35:41.860 it's not fun.
00:35:43.320 You're breathing in
00:35:44.160 disgusting air.
00:35:46.000 Granted,
00:35:46.320 there's a lot of restaurants
00:35:47.120 nearby,
00:35:47.580 I'll give you that.
00:35:48.960 But I can get my electric vehicle,
00:35:51.000 my Tesla,
00:35:51.740 and I can drive
00:35:52.320 basically anywhere.
00:35:53.780 I got restaurants
00:35:54.400 all over the place too.
00:35:56.160 Big open country roads
00:35:57.380 probably takes me
00:35:58.180 the same amount of time
00:35:58.660 to get there
00:35:59.000 as it does you in the city.
00:36:00.380 So weighing all
00:36:01.400 of these realities,
00:36:03.260 there is no detriment
00:36:04.440 to preparing for
00:36:05.780 the worst case scenario.
00:36:07.200 None.
00:36:07.440 So why not?
00:36:09.360 And I hope I'm wrong.
00:36:11.060 And I hope one day
00:36:11.840 people look back
00:36:12.500 and they laugh and say,
00:36:13.240 that guy thought
00:36:13.800 that was gonna happen.
00:36:14.600 He was crazy.
00:36:16.740 Unfortunately,
00:36:17.900 I think we're on a track
00:36:21.060 everybody kinda recognizes.
00:36:23.560 I'll leave it there.
00:36:25.080 Smash that like button.
00:36:26.120 Share this show.
00:36:26.900 Welcome to the new
00:36:27.600 At Tim Pool channel.
00:36:29.540 Reactions,
00:36:30.080 commentary,
00:36:31.240 less newsy,
00:36:32.140 but this one was pretty newsy.
00:36:33.440 I can't help it.
00:36:34.860 Thanks for hanging out.
00:36:35.480 We'll see you all next time.