The Culture War - Tim Pool - September 16, 2025


Why Charlie Kirks Assassination Will Start The Coming Civil War | Tim Pool Reacts


Episode Stats


Length

36 minutes

Words per minute

180.11252

Word count

6,595

Sentence count

551

Harmful content

Misogyny

5

sentences flagged

Toxicity

32

sentences flagged

Hate speech

10

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Charlie Kirk's assassination is a tipping point in America. Will it start a civil war? Or will it end in peace and harmony? What will it mean for our political discourse? And what will it do to our culture?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.300 Will there be a civil war in the United States? It's an interesting question.
00:00:05.320 Obviously, I've talked about it quite a bit. And let me just switch that real quick.
00:00:09.960 We have this video from two days ago with 430,000 views and no description from Moon.
00:00:16.300 Why Charlie Kirk's assassination will start the coming civil war.
00:00:20.320 Now, even I dare not say it will, because I don't know that.
00:00:26.280 And I've been pretty I I say this in the utmost of I don't know, take it for what I will.
00:00:34.460 I have been correct on so much of what I've predicted and I have not always been correct on everything.
00:00:40.780 I am not clairvoyant, nor am I a super genius.
00:00:44.240 I just read the news so often vague predictions come true.
00:00:48.780 That is to say, the example I've given as of recent, because an old one, was that in September of 2020,
00:00:54.460 I said on my morning show and on TimCast IRL, if Donald Trump loses in November, his supporters are going to storm the White House.
00:01:02.660 They're going to go to D.C. They're going to break in.
00:01:04.320 They're not going to accept this. And of course, I was wrong.
00:01:09.820 No one in November stormed the White House.
00:01:12.240 Ah. But I almost got it right.
00:01:18.100 January 2021, only a few months later, Trump supporters stormed the Capitol.
00:01:23.600 Call it whatever you want.
00:01:25.140 The general idea I was correct about, just the specifics I missed.
00:01:31.480 Before.
00:01:33.060 January 6th, but after November, I was called a Looney Tune crackpot.
00:01:36.420 Actually, when I said it was going to happen, I had people on the left being like, Tim Poole's nuts.
00:01:41.600 Yeah, Trump supporters are bad, but they're not going to storm the White House.
00:01:44.000 That'll never happen.
00:01:45.380 Civil war? Get out of here. 0.98
00:01:48.300 November came and went and they laughed and said, see, what a lunatic.
00:01:52.660 After January 6th, they said, arrest Tim Poole, subpoena him.
00:01:57.380 He had foreknowledge of January 6th.
00:01:59.960 How about that?
00:02:01.480 My prediction was not that good, but it was close.
00:02:03.920 So they made fun of me until January 6th happened and then said it must have been foreknowledge.
00:02:10.140 Well, I genuinely believe that there is but one path.
00:02:13.600 I watched a video where a guy mocked in front of a big crowd of people,
00:02:19.120 mocked Charlie Kirk and acted like he was getting shot. 0.70
00:02:21.620 I just watched a video where a cyclist, a transgender individual threatened to kill a lady, 0.98
00:02:28.340 vaguely, not directly. 0.99
00:02:30.480 But this person said, we kill Nazis and you're a Nazi. 0.99
00:02:33.520 Which, it's a threat of death. 0.99
00:02:36.480 A man then physically attacked the lady. 0.83
00:02:39.380 The temperature's not coming down.
00:02:40.880 And there is no reality by which anyone is going to effectively simmer down two distinct
00:02:46.740 moral worldviews.
00:02:49.480 And so I look to Moon and I will hear what he has to say.
00:02:53.460 And I will offer my commentary as that Civil War guy.
00:02:56.640 Charlie Kirk's assassination is a tipping point in America.
00:03:02.500 Because Charlie was famous for bringing open unfiltered debate to college campuses.
00:03:07.140 He was in the midst of one of his signature prove me wrong sessions with his wife Erica
00:03:10.960 and two children being present.
00:03:12.600 When on September 10th, a sniper assassinated him.
00:03:16.100 Just days after a Ukrainian refugee was also savagely murdered on a bus in Charlotte during
00:03:21.060 a race motivated attack.
00:03:22.680 And all of this a year after Trump's attempted assassination.
00:03:25.620 Just around the 24th anniversary of 9-11.
00:03:28.480 An attack that united Americans. 0.50
00:03:30.520 And yet now, these attacks are dividing America more than we've ever seen before.
00:03:34.900 While most people were shocked by this, thousands also expressed their joy over his death.
00:03:39.180 Some of the media even smeared him.
00:03:41.000 Charlie Kirk is a divisive figure.
00:03:42.880 Polarizing, lightning rod, whatever term you want to use.
00:03:45.600 And even the House couldn't agree to have a moment of silence for him.
00:03:48.860 Which is why this politically motivated terror attack might just be the one that tears America
00:03:53.780 apart.
00:03:54.540 As it seems, a line has now finally been crossed in the country.
00:03:58.120 As his death is a window into how far American political discourse has traveled from division
00:04:03.220 to something far riskier for the entire population.
00:04:06.040 It's why around 43% now believe a civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next 10 years.
00:04:12.140 As we see yet another young 20s politically radicalized guy trying to take down open discussion
00:04:17.100 with bullets.
00:04:17.960 Whether it be Luigi Mangione, Thomas Matthew Crooks, and Tyler Robinson.
00:04:21.680 And making Martyr out of one of America's most famous commentators is only going to radicalize
00:04:26.740 everyone so much more.
00:04:28.320 I will clarify first and foremost, Luigi Mangione is still on trial.
00:04:32.700 And that's an, so there are allegations as of now, and this is an important distinction.
00:04:36.680 Tyler Robinson, according to Kash Patel, effectively confessed.
00:04:39.960 So I think we're going to have an open and shut case on that one.
00:04:42.460 That is important to understand.
00:04:44.360 Because if you followed US politics over the past decade, you've probably seen him at least
00:04:48.060 once.
00:04:48.700 As he was everywhere from Fox News podcasts, college campuses, Trump rallies.
00:04:53.300 He showed Tim Kast.
00:04:55.080 Oh man, this is, it's so brutal.
00:04:57.180 As he was everywhere from Fox News podcast.
00:05:00.440 This is Joe Biden in the background.
00:05:05.420 That's a demonic Joe Biden devouring a little girl.
00:05:09.500 Shout out to G Prime 85's art.
00:05:11.800 Shout out to Charlie Kirk and the Turning Point USA team.
00:05:14.700 This is particularly brutal to have to see, man.
00:05:17.760 That's, you can see, look at this.
00:05:19.460 Where's the chair?
00:05:20.040 Can you see the chair behind me? 1.00
00:05:21.040 No, I got the stupid pillow on it. 1.00
00:05:22.240 I don't need that pillow. 1.00
00:05:23.540 There you go.
00:05:24.560 Look at that.
00:05:26.080 Sitting in the chair, man.
00:05:27.600 College campuses, Trump rallies.
00:05:29.880 He became one of the most recognizable faces in the modern conservative movement, building
00:05:34.520 Turning Point USA at the age of just 18 into a massive operation by the time he died with
00:05:39.800 $55 million in annual revenue.
00:05:42.480 In fact, the last reported revenue, I think was for 23, as they're probably finalizing
00:05:48.240 their 24 taxes now, was $81 million.
00:05:51.180 But I'm going to jump ahead a little bit because I want to hear his argument on civil war.
00:05:55.980 He had it coming because of his views.
00:05:58.740 And many even saw this as a win for the left.
00:06:01.260 Or they just straight out used his death for some other point.
00:06:04.560 All while those on the right demanded total war against the left.
00:06:08.220 Then things became even crazier.
00:06:10.280 When people soon realized when those taken into police custody were just decoys.
00:06:14.660 The first was the 71-year-old George Zinn, a local activist with a decades-long history
00:06:19.560 of showing up to political events across Utah.
00:06:22.080 Witnesses captured videos of police escorting Zinn away from the scene.
00:06:25.620 A uniformed officer was then heard saying on the video he said he shot him, but I don't
00:06:29.500 know.
00:06:30.280 What's that?
00:06:31.300 We don't know if it's him or not.
00:06:34.160 Despite a massive manhunt.
00:06:36.540 That man, of course, lied.
00:06:38.380 And we have this report.
00:06:40.000 He told the cops he shot Charlie in order to give the real shooter time to escape.
00:06:46.060 Involving federal, state, and local agencies.
00:06:48.060 The actual shooter remained at large for some 48 hours until an extraordinary development.
00:06:53.040 The suspect's own father bravely turned him in.
00:06:55.840 Tyler had confessed the shoot.
00:06:57.140 So this, I, I, look, with respect to Moon in this video, I don't want to play his whole
00:07:01.360 thing.
00:07:01.680 He's doing a great breakdown and everything.
00:07:03.080 I want to get to the civil war arguments specifically.
00:07:06.240 And it looks like so far he's just giving us the general breakdown at the beginning.
00:07:09.880 So let's jump to this portion where it gets a little bit more interesting.
00:07:13.360 Democracy, the danger zone where countries are vulnerable to political violence.
00:07:17.000 Now, people will always naturally disagree on when this started happening and which
00:07:20.520 side of the political spectrum is primarily to blame.
00:07:23.380 And it's no secret that the US political system swings like a pendulum from Democrats
00:07:26.940 and Republicans.
00:07:27.880 But research from the University of Southern California indicates that each side is now
00:07:31.840 further apart than the early 1900s.
00:07:34.440 In fact, America has been more polarized for a longer period than any other major democracy
00:07:38.380 on the planet.
00:07:39.360 In the kind of conditions the US might be heading for, evidence suggests that the annual risk
00:07:43.520 for civil war conflict reaches 4% per year.
00:07:46.280 That seems lower face value, but consider that's a compound risk of 40% over 10 years.
00:07:52.000 And suddenly it doesn't look so small anymore.
00:07:54.520 So let me give you an example.
00:07:56.580 In the 1820s, there was conversation about the possibility of a civil war breaking out in
00:08:00.780 the United States.
00:08:02.080 The reason I say a conversation about the possibility is that it didn't.
00:08:07.300 And it wasn't that serious.
00:08:08.640 But the conversation between the states was obviously the issue of slavery being hotly debated.
00:08:12.740 You see, the founding fathers actually did not want slavery.
00:08:16.360 Thomas Jefferson wanted to include in the Declaration of Independence that the crown had
00:08:20.560 taken other people from across the world and brought them into the US and used them to levy war 0.97
00:08:26.840 for like to create the system that they did not want.
00:08:30.380 However, Jefferson ultimately decided to remove that from one of the initial statements in the
00:08:34.900 declaration as Georgia and South Carolina risked, it risked those states, those colonies at the time,
00:08:42.320 leaving their 13 original colonies.
00:08:45.960 Thus, they would not have the requisite manpower to go up against the crown for independence.
00:08:52.300 Now, admittedly, they didn't to begin with.
00:08:54.640 And it was the French intervention that ultimately helped the United States win.
00:08:57.960 But another important factor is when we refer to the original 13 colonies, there were more
00:09:04.180 than that.
00:09:05.280 Quebec was given the offer to join as the 14th colony as it was a colony under the crown,
00:09:09.820 and it opted not to.
00:09:11.720 Thus, it is a part of Canada.
00:09:13.200 And the 13 original colonies were just the 13 that said, ain't no thing with Joe Kang.
00:09:17.540 So, when we talk about civil war in this country, 1820, it didn't happen.
00:09:25.420 It took until 1861.
00:09:27.580 But still, what many people don't realize is the bleeding Kansas period, which was a seven
00:09:32.360 year period before the beginning of the Civil War, where in various territories, but mostly
00:09:37.700 centered in Kansas, abolitionist and pro-slavery forces were massacring each other.
00:09:44.220 The war was happening.
00:09:45.340 What does that mean?
00:09:45.920 If you take a look at what we're seeing now and the points being made by Moon, good points,
00:09:50.840 by the way, with the utmost respect, a surface level overview.
00:09:56.140 What you see is the conversations that are happening now, as he points out, the 4% compounding
00:10:00.960 factor, 40% over 10 years.
00:10:03.620 Every year, with this polarization, the likelihood of civil war increases.
00:10:08.260 What you need now is a large group of listless young men with no jobs, no purpose, and no 1.00
00:10:14.120 families.
00:10:14.560 And fortunately for us, we don't.
00:10:17.480 Oh, we have absolutely that.
00:10:21.240 That's what's terrifying.
00:10:22.940 Now, we may be, as it is 2025, in a similar situation to the 1820s, where the conversation
00:10:27.780 is emerging, but does not reach that level of hyperpolarization.
00:10:32.340 But there are many key differences.
00:10:34.020 The 1820s and 1861.
00:10:36.200 These were sovereign states largely viewing themselves as independent nations, part of
00:10:41.000 a union.
00:10:41.800 Thus, their militaries and their constitutions were supreme in their land, and they viewed
00:10:47.020 themselves as unified.
00:10:48.340 In the United States today, I've lived in California, Seattle, Denver, Chicago, Virginia,
00:10:53.440 West Virginia, New York, New Jersey.
00:10:54.840 See, I've lived all over the place.
00:10:57.360 And I don't consider myself Illinoisan.
00:11:00.820 Most people don't.
00:11:02.100 You had your home, and you lived there, and you died there.
00:11:05.340 That is a major difference.
00:11:07.200 One more compounding factor to all of these details is social media.
00:11:11.540 More and more people are online, talking to each other at lightning speed faster than
00:11:16.460 ever before.
00:11:16.940 So in the 1820s, news traveled by horseback.
00:11:22.080 That meant that you would be sitting on your ranch, tending to your chickens and cows, and
00:11:25.700 you wouldn't hear back about whether or not there was an escalation in political violence
00:11:29.980 or rhetoric for months.
00:11:31.960 In fact, it was years, because for the most part, Congress in session, they got to travel
00:11:37.680 back.
00:11:38.340 News over whatever Congress was doing wouldn't even make it to your town for months.
00:11:42.440 Yes, newsmen would bring newspapers from D.C. or New York and travel the country for money
00:11:48.480 to read the news from three months ago.
00:11:52.040 That's how news traveled.
00:11:53.140 Get this.
00:11:54.480 When the Declaration of Independence was actually signed, which one could argue we call it a
00:11:59.260 revolution, could have been considered a civil war in a sense that you had under one
00:12:04.060 crown, these warring factions, but a revolution in the colonies is a better way to describe it.
00:12:09.360 So the war already broke out, Lexington and Concord.
00:12:11.640 And that was a year just about before the actual signing of the Declaration of Independence.
00:12:16.500 The founding fathers got together and they said, we hereby declare with that Declaration
00:12:21.040 of Independence.
00:12:21.740 It was then put on a boat and it took like three months to make it to England, to Great
00:12:27.340 Britain, to the crown.
00:12:28.620 Then Parliament and the crown go over it and they're like, what's going on?
00:12:31.600 And it took months for a response.
00:12:34.300 That meant they signed it, shipped it off and said, and now we wait.
00:12:37.540 Not anymore.
00:12:38.220 When the statements are made with lightning precision, everyone knows, which means though
00:12:44.420 we are in perhaps an 1820s period, the hyper escalation of rhetoric and threats of violence
00:12:51.180 is rapidly expanding much faster than we saw in the 1820s.
00:12:56.420 So perhaps the killing of Charlie Kirk, one could say, this is bleeding Kansas.
00:13:01.340 Could you deny it?
00:13:02.760 Honest question.
00:13:03.820 You've got murders, violence.
00:13:06.860 We have more political murders now than we've had in the past.
00:13:09.640 I've heard the metric is.
00:13:11.860 So I'm not the academic studying all of the political murders.
00:13:15.520 But Stephen Marr said we are in civil strife.
00:13:18.160 And that was a couple of years ago.
00:13:20.100 That is if you have at least 70 political deaths in your country.
00:13:22.740 It's a big country.
00:13:23.460 So maybe that's hard to say.
00:13:25.760 The estimates right now are around 150 political deaths.
00:13:28.680 So Rudyard Lynch of What If Altist, you were wrong, but close.
00:13:33.620 To be fair, I think he said a thousand.
00:13:36.180 150 this year so far.
00:13:39.000 What does that really mean?
00:13:40.180 I don't know.
00:13:40.820 Because sometimes when they classify political deaths, they say things like a racist guy
00:13:44.340 stabbed a black guy or something.
00:13:46.040 And you're like, was that really political? 0.96
00:13:48.360 But online, the rhetoric is rapidly expanding.
00:13:51.780 Let's continue the video from Moon.
00:13:53.680 And I always want to give a shout out to those that I react to.
00:13:56.240 It's just Moon on YouTube.
00:13:58.580 I recommend you check out the full channel and subscribe to watch his full video.
00:14:01.360 And full credit to Moon.
00:14:02.760 Shout out for your video so far.
00:14:04.540 I think you've done a pretty good job.
00:14:05.920 And let's listen.
00:14:06.900 In Yugoslavia, in the 80s, it was described as one of the largest, most developed, and
00:14:11.540 diverse countries in the Balkans.
00:14:13.420 Different ethnic groups lived in the same neighborhoods, went to the same schools, intermarried
00:14:17.160 freely.
00:14:17.820 It had been a functioning multi-ethnic state for decades.
00:14:20.760 Then the economy started falling apart.
00:14:22.640 And by 1991, Stavino and Croatian were declaring independence.
00:14:26.240 US intelligence predicted Yugoslavia would cease to function as a federal state within a
00:14:30.500 year.
00:14:30.940 And will probably dissolve within two.
00:14:32.620 And that the violence would be intractable and bitter.
00:14:35.100 Over the next few years, more than 100,000 people were killed and 2 million were forced
00:14:39.180 to flee their homes.
00:14:40.540 Neighbors who had lived peacefully together for generations started slaughtering each other.
00:14:44.480 And you can question whether America is really comparable to other countries that had civil
00:14:48.140 wars.
00:14:48.760 But the basic pattern is developing.
00:14:50.720 Countries don't usually collapse overnight.
00:14:52.560 They break down slowly, then all at once.
00:14:54.640 Especially when foreign hostile countries do everything they can to make sure this happens.
00:14:59.020 And singular violent events are proven to accelerate the trajectory.
00:15:03.220 Even in historical events as colossally huge as the fall of Rome and World War I.
00:15:07.600 But here's the thing though, we don't even need to speculate with historical parallels
00:15:10.860 when we can see what's happening right now in America.
00:15:13.420 Since 2024, approximately 2,000 National Guard troops have been deployed domestically.
00:15:18.420 Trump signed an executive order directing the National Guard to create specialized military
00:15:22.620 units to quell civil disturbances in American states.
00:15:25.360 That's right.
00:15:25.840 All to be deployed at his command.
00:15:27.460 Retired Major General Randy Manor, a former acting vice chief of the National Guard Bureau,
00:15:32.380 said the administration is trying to desensitize the American people to get used to American
00:15:36.620 armed soldiers and combat vehicles patrolling the streets of America.
00:15:40.180 Trump is allowed to do this.
00:15:42.220 Trump is allowed to deploy National Guard and even the military.
00:15:45.160 However, they can't enforce local laws.
00:15:48.540 There's a law called posse comitatus, which says that you cannot use the military for local
00:15:53.440 law enforcement.
00:15:53.960 However, they can be deployed under the orders of the president.
00:15:55.960 They can protect federal buildings.
00:15:58.240 So they're not enforcing the law.
00:15:59.320 They're just basically doing security.
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00:16:59.340 The Insurrection Act allows the president to deploy the military in the event that an insurrection occurs.
00:17:05.480 That's a simple way of putting it.
00:17:06.880 The easy way to put it is, if local laws are not being enforced,
00:17:11.160 the federal government can use the military to enforce those laws if Trump declares an insurrection.
00:17:16.540 There are two different versions of the Insurrection Act.
00:17:18.480 One was updated.
00:17:19.680 Meanwhile, threats and harassment against local officials jumped over the past few years.
00:17:24.040 The Capitol Police said they had more threats against members of Congress in 2024 than ever before.
00:17:28.880 With even two attempts against Trump himself.
00:17:31.260 When America was just inches away from Trump being dead.
00:17:34.140 And then we can also look at how this division is affecting the population itself.
00:17:37.800 Recent polling shows 65% of Americans feel exhausted when thinking about politics.
00:17:42.560 55% feel angry and only 10% feel hopeful.
00:17:45.540 Most troubling of all, 80% can't agree on basic facts anymore.
00:17:49.360 Most critically, people oppose each other more harshly than ever.
00:17:53.180 43% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats hold very unfavorable views of the opposing party,
00:17:59.100 up from just 17% and 16% in 1994.
00:18:02.740 And this is where it gets so crazy with Charlie Kirk's assassination.
00:18:06.120 When people live in completely different versions of reality,
00:18:09.200 they start seeing political opponents, not as fellow citizens with different views,
00:18:12.960 but as existential threats that need to be taken out.
00:18:15.860 All whipped up and catalyzed by our media environment
00:18:18.440 that has basically created those parallel universes in tangent with social media.
00:18:22.840 Take campus protest events.
00:18:24.400 They regularly turn violent to require riot police and tactical gear to move people along.
00:18:28.840 Or the storming of the Capitol or the BLM riots.
00:18:31.160 Now, let's just pause and point out.
00:18:33.780 The storming of the Capitol was one bad thing, and it was a bad thing.
00:18:37.320 But the BLM riots, the college protests are an ongoing thing for my entire life.
00:18:41.760 In fact, in the 2000s, I was a part of these anti-war protests,
00:18:45.380 marching through the streets of Chicago.
00:18:47.520 Everybody was pissed off.
00:18:49.340 Then when Obama got in, they seemed to not really care about the war all that much anymore.
00:18:53.640 Until the crisis happened with financing and housing,
00:18:56.680 then people started to get upset, leading us a couple of years later to occupy Wall Street,
00:19:01.580 for which I was there.
00:19:03.920 I documented it.
00:19:05.020 I filmed it.
00:19:05.460 I live streamed it.
00:19:07.180 There has every year of my life, since I was a young teenager,
00:19:11.820 I can't speak to being 12 or younger because you had the Al Gore Bush thing,
00:19:17.840 leftist liberal protests, nothing from the right.
00:19:22.960 Brooks Brothers, they say.
00:19:24.120 I don't even know about that, to be honest, not at the time.
00:19:27.540 Now, here we are today.
00:19:29.180 The right is not going out in the street, engaging in this violence.
00:19:32.080 But that's neither here nor there.
00:19:34.040 The question right now, a good point brought up by Moon.
00:19:39.200 The polarization and the bifurcation.
00:19:42.740 What we are looking at is two universes,
00:19:46.220 both sides seeing each other as an existential threat.
00:19:49.300 And that's true.
00:19:51.060 It doesn't matter what you think is true.
00:19:52.520 It doesn't matter.
00:19:53.780 You know, my favorite example of this is,
00:19:55.920 I state all the time what the truth doesn't matter to a hyper-polarized people
00:20:03.620 because they determine what's true from their world.
00:20:07.280 If you grow up and all you see over and over and over again are videos of police brutality,
00:20:12.980 then you believe it's a pervasive problem and it's the worst problem imaginable.
00:20:16.040 If you've never seen those videos, you'd be like, what are you even talking about?
00:20:20.680 So, when you come from a traditional American moral worldview,
00:20:24.260 you're going to say child sex changes are bad.
00:20:26.560 If you come from a progressive adaptive view built largely on social media algorithms,
00:20:30.760 you're going to say, what's the problem?
00:20:32.100 This is an existential crisis because the traditional moral worldview of America,
00:20:37.660 and I'm not even talking about Christian tradition.
00:20:40.260 I'm talking about liberals and Democrats from like 10 years ago would be you don't give kids sex changes. 0.98
00:20:48.420 But now it's become mainstream and pervasive among the progressive left.
00:20:52.340 The traditional American view sees that as an existential threat to our existence.
00:20:58.840 Children must be able to grow up free from this mutilation,
00:21:03.640 and otherwise they can't even reproduce.
00:21:06.120 And if we can't reproduce, what do we do?
00:21:08.720 And the left says abortions for all, sex changes for whoever.
00:21:14.020 And, well, if they can't have kids, so what?
00:21:16.100 Immigration is a solution. 1.00
00:21:17.460 But immigration threatens the fabric of the nation 1.00
00:21:19.480 because the worldview of those migrants is also drastically different from traditional Americans.
00:21:24.940 Thus, no matter which side you're on, you face an existential threat.
00:21:30.140 It's not so much about who is right or wrong or what is true.
00:21:32.860 It's that if you are a progressive liberal, yes, Charlie Kirk,
00:21:36.780 if he were to win politically, your worldview would be marginalized.
00:21:41.880 He didn't want to kill anybody or anything like that.
00:21:44.120 But he certainly would say you can't give kids sex changes,
00:21:46.460 which means if you live in a world where you deem it mandatory,
00:21:50.200 you were facing an existential threat to your ideology.
00:21:53.600 Not to you personally, but that's what they said.
00:21:56.340 They want us to not exist.
00:21:57.920 Respect existence or expect resistance.
00:22:01.200 That's how they played it.
00:22:02.700 Depending on which news anyone consumes, they see completely different events.
00:22:06.700 And we all know by now how social media and its algorithms play into this,
00:22:10.020 as there's barely any money to be made from nuanced coverage
00:22:12.660 that says this was complicated with multiple factors.
00:22:15.260 Now you need two or more sides to contribute to any debates.
00:22:18.540 But a healthy debate needs a middle ground.
00:22:20.500 And that's what America has completely lost,
00:22:22.640 mostly because of the way the media treats issues.
00:22:25.840 To exemplify what he's saying,
00:22:28.100 I'm going to show you this post from the Joe Rogan subreddit.
00:22:30.820 This was done intentionally by me.
00:22:32.660 And anybody who follows me on X knows this.
00:22:34.300 You can follow me on X at Timcast.
00:22:35.820 Subscribe to this channel, by the way.
00:22:38.340 At Joe Rogan put,
00:22:39.320 Tim Poole with great takes as always.
00:22:41.240 And it's a tweet for me that says,
00:22:43.520 it should be illegal to not believe in God.
00:22:46.700 It's an archived post.
00:22:48.480 The top comment,
00:22:49.160 this sounds like Sharia law to me.
00:22:51.860 I realize I was being reductive,
00:22:53.240 but I was referring to places where legislation is based on Sharia.
00:22:55.840 I thought that would be implied by context.
00:22:57.800 That's the top comment.
00:22:59.520 The next one says,
00:23:00.140 it should also be illegal to cosplay as a leukemia patient
00:23:02.240 for the better part of two decades.
00:23:03.480 But here we are, Tim.
00:23:04.940 The next one says,
00:23:05.980 I would genuinely like to know what his appeal is.
00:23:07.920 He's always complaining about something, blah, blah, blah.
00:23:09.660 Ah, yes, because every great theologian will tell you
00:23:12.960 that God wants people to be forced to worship him.
00:23:15.240 Indeed.
00:23:16.180 Now, the funny thing is,
00:23:18.060 you got to scroll down.
00:23:19.520 People need to understand that
00:23:20.420 since Twitter started paying its users
00:23:21.640 for more views and engagements,
00:23:22.840 Tim Poole has been like this.
00:23:24.440 Lies! 0.92
00:23:25.220 I have been like this the whole time.
00:23:27.200 I have always been,
00:23:28.420 I will refrain from swearing,
00:23:29.480 an ish head who pokes the bear
00:23:32.160 and makes a point.
00:23:33.260 Because I ain't on your team,
00:23:34.180 I ain't on anyone's team.
00:23:36.140 Let's see how far you got to go. 1.00
00:23:38.340 It should be illegal to be that stupid. 1.00
00:23:40.700 Witch God. 1.00
00:23:41.840 Poole is perma-mad. 0.94
00:23:42.840 The party of freedom.
00:23:44.780 Let's see.
00:23:45.340 Hate's having his freedom.
00:23:46.780 Are there any actual cool conservatives?
00:23:48.480 This is where Gen Z. 0.96
00:23:49.660 Here's,
00:23:50.200 this is pretty good, actually.
00:23:51.340 It's photoshopped me,
00:23:52.540 morbidly obese.
00:23:53.240 I look like one of the Duck Dynasty guys.
00:23:54.800 I actually think that's pretty good.
00:23:57.760 Amazing.
00:23:59.200 This is the bifurcation of social media.
00:24:03.000 Corrupted syntax, finally.
00:24:04.440 He followed up with a tweet saying
00:24:06.460 believing in God should be illegal,
00:24:08.000 which got far less engagement,
00:24:09.860 which no doubt he pointed to saying, 0.90
00:24:11.240 see, they hate religion.
00:24:12.340 But he still didn't get it.
00:24:14.180 Because I made my point.
00:24:16.460 And actually,
00:24:17.120 I think if I sort by controversial,
00:24:19.240 because that's what Reddit's giving you,
00:24:20.920 you might actually see
00:24:21.980 he's making a joke for F's sake.
00:24:25.320 Yep.
00:24:25.940 That's bait. 0.93
00:24:27.120 It's downvoted.
00:24:30.400 Tim Pool tweets,
00:24:31.520 I'm not sure why we're posting a tweet
00:24:34.960 from six months ago,
00:24:35.660 but freedom of religion is protected.
00:24:37.500 Blah, blah, blah.
00:24:38.600 He tweeted that right after saying
00:24:39.880 it should be illegal to believe in God,
00:24:41.040 he did this to test the algorithm or something.
00:24:44.400 Correct.
00:24:44.960 But it'll go over everyone's head
00:24:46.260 and they'll only see a surface level
00:24:47.560 and confirm their beliefs
00:24:48.840 with absolutely no hate in their heart.
00:24:51.620 That's right.
00:24:52.980 He's in any petition to make it happen.
00:24:54.620 Blah. 0.98
00:24:54.760 You're falling for a troll is more shameful. 0.99
00:24:57.980 Reddit upvoted. 0.95
00:24:58.940 They ignored that two tweets
00:25:01.740 were put at the exact same time
00:25:03.400 for the purpose of me saying,
00:25:05.740 this is the point.
00:25:07.840 The left is only going to share
00:25:09.960 what makes them mad
00:25:11.220 and they can use to justify what they want.
00:25:13.760 The same is true largely for the right,
00:25:15.840 but not entirely.
00:25:17.220 The reason why I'm more considered
00:25:18.920 to be aligned with the right
00:25:19.900 is because I'm more willing
00:25:21.680 to tell what's true.
00:25:23.520 And that means when the media lies,
00:25:25.280 I will call it out.
00:25:26.800 When they say the right
00:25:27.860 is more responsible for violence,
00:25:28.820 and I say, that's not correct.
00:25:30.180 Here's the stats.
00:25:31.060 They go, he's defending the right,
00:25:32.520 therefore he's on the right.
00:25:33.600 But if you live in a world of lies,
00:25:35.040 that's what you'll believe.
00:25:35.720 But none of this matters.
00:25:36.980 You can tell me I'm wrong right now. 1.00
00:25:38.340 Say, Tim Poole, you're a liar. 1.00
00:25:39.880 You're a conservative and a liar. 1.00
00:25:41.360 Fine. 1.00
00:25:41.760 I don't care.
00:25:42.900 The fact of the matter is,
00:25:44.020 as it pertains to civil war,
00:25:45.560 both sides refuse to believe
00:25:47.980 what is true or what is not true.
00:25:50.200 Now, I certainly think the right
00:25:53.020 has a truth,
00:25:56.160 has a right-wing bias.
00:25:57.840 Reality is a right-wing bias.
00:25:59.320 But it's fine if you think I'm wrong.
00:26:00.920 That proves my point.
00:26:02.360 In which case,
00:26:02.980 at least on this point,
00:26:03.720 I am right.
00:26:04.620 The bifurcation is here.
00:26:06.700 I don't know how YouTube
00:26:07.660 is going to deal with it.
00:26:08.460 It completely dehumanizes
00:26:10.060 those on each side
00:26:11.040 of the political spectrum.
00:26:12.260 And while this isn't exactly new,
00:26:13.920 it's getting so much worse
00:26:15.640 in the last couple of years.
00:26:17.120 And this sort of violence
00:26:18.000 has a nasty habit of snowballing.
00:26:19.940 Take the 2011 shooting
00:26:21.460 of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords.
00:26:23.480 Within hours of the tragedy,
00:26:24.800 both political sides
00:26:25.700 were blaming each other's rhetoric
00:26:26.920 for creating the climate
00:26:27.940 that led to the violence.
00:26:29.180 The shooter turned out 0.89
00:26:29.920 to be severely mentally ill 0.80
00:26:31.140 with no real coherent 0.99
00:26:32.180 political ideology,
00:26:33.540 who actually voted for independence
00:26:34.860 and his friend said
00:26:35.740 wasn't left all right,
00:26:36.880 but that didn't stop
00:26:37.560 the blame game
00:26:38.180 for slogging on for weeks.
00:26:39.580 So Martin Luther King
00:26:40.560 was assassinated.
00:26:41.340 That's a really great point.
00:26:43.460 You can look back
00:26:44.540 at those shootings and say
00:26:45.600 it was not politically motivated,
00:26:47.860 but it led to the bifurcation.
00:26:50.560 The rhetoric that he was,
00:26:52.340 Moon was describing
00:26:53.100 on both sides
00:26:54.140 is the conversation
00:26:55.380 that breeds
00:26:56.340 two distinct political classes
00:26:57.920 in the younger generation.
00:26:59.320 The older generation
00:27:00.460 is more unified,
00:27:01.680 but as time goes on
00:27:02.860 and they age out,
00:27:03.760 you eventually end up
00:27:05.020 with two distinct universes
00:27:06.580 who see the world
00:27:07.680 in entirely different ways
00:27:08.920 and that's how you get civil war.
00:27:11.060 Now, it's not always
00:27:11.780 about two groups, mind you.
00:27:13.100 It's about two umbrella factions.
00:27:15.020 Within these factions
00:27:15.800 of moral worldview,
00:27:16.760 you will get distinct
00:27:17.640 and individual groups
00:27:18.420 with slightly different beliefs.
00:27:20.180 assassinated in 1968,
00:27:22.240 things got way worse.
00:27:23.500 Riots erupted
00:27:24.060 in nearly 200 cities
00:27:25.260 within hours.
00:27:26.220 43 people died,
00:27:27.460 3,500 were injured
00:27:28.900 and 27,000 were arrested
00:27:30.740 over 10 days of violence.
00:27:32.420 And the significance of this though
00:27:33.780 is that three TV networks
00:27:35.220 basically told the same story
00:27:36.840 to the whole country.
00:27:37.800 Correct.
00:27:37.980 People could disagree
00:27:38.520 about solutions
00:27:39.240 while agreeing on basic facts.
00:27:41.100 But America no longer
00:27:42.080 has that luxury anymore,
00:27:43.520 as we can quite clearly see
00:27:44.840 from the world's reaction
00:27:45.840 to Kirk's assassination.
00:27:47.520 It's a horrifying thing to see
00:27:48.940 because back in 2021,
00:27:50.700 MIT researchers
00:27:51.740 working with the Club of Rome
00:27:53.120 updated their modelling
00:27:54.060 and found that we were
00:27:55.140 on track for quote
00:27:55.940 the terminal decline
00:27:56.820 of economic growth
00:27:57.880 within the coming decade.
00:27:59.500 In 2022,
00:28:00.480 they put out the Leicester study
00:28:01.660 called Earth for All
00:28:02.700 that basically asked
00:28:03.540 what happens
00:28:04.080 if we keep doing
00:28:04.880 what we're doing.
00:28:05.800 And their answer
00:28:06.420 wasn't exactly upbeat.
00:28:07.940 They ran two scenarios
00:28:09.060 through 2100,
00:28:10.580 one where we model through
00:28:11.620 too little too late
00:28:12.540 and one where we actually
00:28:13.520 get our act together.
00:28:14.680 The model through scenario
00:28:15.680 shows well-being dropping
00:28:16.760 by 40% in wealthy countries
00:28:18.660 by the 2050s,
00:28:19.860 with regional societal collapse
00:28:21.260 becoming more likely
00:28:22.200 as social tensions,
00:28:23.240 food issues,
00:28:23.820 and environmental problems
00:28:24.820 start feeding each other.
00:28:26.140 Today, we're already
00:28:26.920 half through 2025
00:28:27.920 and guess which scenario
00:28:29.200 we're following?
00:28:30.120 Yes, it's not the optimistic one.
00:28:32.060 And this is all before
00:28:32.900 just the recent events
00:28:33.840 of the last month.
00:28:34.900 And while plenty of people
00:28:35.880 think that these researchers
00:28:37.020 are just professional pessimists
00:28:38.600 who've been predicting
00:28:39.200 doom for decades,
00:28:40.360 their track record
00:28:41.100 has actually been
00:28:41.900 pretty solid so far.
00:28:43.500 But whether you believe
00:28:44.180 their projections or not,
00:28:45.220 the basic point
00:28:46.100 is that when societies
00:28:47.020 are already stressed
00:28:47.980 on multiple fronts,
00:28:49.060 economically,
00:28:49.880 socially,
00:28:50.320 environmentally,
00:28:51.180 they become way more
00:28:52.260 vulnerable to what
00:28:52.980 researchers call
00:28:53.720 shame reactions
00:28:54.440 of bad events.
00:28:55.480 One bad thing happens
00:28:56.480 then another,
00:28:57.200 then another.
00:28:58.020 But it's why it's clear
00:28:58.980 that Kirk's assassination
00:28:59.960 seems to be a huge
00:29:01.640 tipping point in America.
00:29:03.320 Adding so much fuel
00:29:04.360 to the fire of a country
00:29:05.720 where 80% can't agree
00:29:07.260 on the basic facts,
00:29:08.360 where political violence
00:29:09.160 is getting more calculated
00:29:10.440 and targeted,
00:29:11.480 where to be in politics
00:29:12.440 and give your opinions
00:29:13.440 in America means
00:29:14.360 you have a very high chance 0.94
00:29:15.680 of being killed, 0.87
00:29:16.860 where our media,
00:29:17.600 politics and social media
00:29:18.740 all then reward
00:29:19.500 division over unity,
00:29:20.940 where people are quite
00:29:21.760 literally excited to see
00:29:22.800 their political opponents
00:29:23.780 get taken out.
00:29:25.180 The question isn't really
00:29:26.180 whether America can survive
00:29:27.440 any single political
00:29:28.340 assassination,
00:29:29.260 but whether it can survive
00:29:30.200 becoming the kind of country
00:29:31.460 where political assassinations
00:29:32.840 feel inevitable.
00:29:34.400 Because the most shocking
00:29:35.320 thing about all of this
00:29:36.540 is that not that many people
00:29:37.900 are even surprised.
00:29:39.060 It almost just felt like
00:29:39.880 something like this
00:29:40.420 would happen
00:29:41.140 and it probably
00:29:42.040 will continue to do so.
00:29:45.920 No.
00:29:47.860 Maybe.
00:29:48.940 Maybe for him,
00:29:50.960 you know,
00:29:53.460 maybe that's what he thought.
00:29:56.940 None of us thought
00:29:58.220 that Charlie would be killed
00:29:59.160 like this.
00:30:00.460 And I've done events,
00:30:02.440 we were going to do an event
00:30:03.180 and with all the security
00:30:03.900 threats that I faced,
00:30:05.400 I never thought
00:30:06.780 this was possible.
00:30:07.560 And it is very strange,
00:30:09.160 even right now.
00:30:11.000 It is difficult to believe.
00:30:12.840 Perhaps I'm still in denial.
00:30:14.600 I mean, like, logically,
00:30:15.400 I get it.
00:30:16.400 Charlie's gone.
00:30:17.920 But it feels impossible.
00:30:21.120 For the longest time,
00:30:22.120 I've been warning
00:30:22.600 about the threat of civil war.
00:30:24.780 That the escalation
00:30:26.060 we've seen
00:30:26.660 from street violence
00:30:27.600 would make its way
00:30:28.320 to the highest level
00:30:28.900 of politics.
00:30:30.220 And in 2018 and 19,
00:30:31.720 I was,
00:30:32.060 they told me I was crazy.
00:30:33.660 And I didn't understand
00:30:35.600 how they couldn't see it.
00:30:36.500 There were
00:30:37.840 two distinct
00:30:39.460 moral universes.
00:30:41.560 They were growing.
00:30:42.580 They were expanding.
00:30:43.480 They were young.
00:30:45.020 And eventually,
00:30:45.840 they found their way
00:30:46.500 into politics.
00:30:48.180 I said,
00:30:49.100 sooner or later,
00:30:49.960 this will reach
00:30:50.600 the highest level
00:30:52.120 of politics.
00:30:52.980 They said, 0.99
00:30:53.240 no, you're crazy. 0.98
00:30:54.380 I was told the security state 0.99
00:30:55.580 would never allow
00:30:56.080 a civil war.
00:30:56.940 It doesn't matter
00:30:57.360 if it's the left or right
00:30:58.000 fighting in the street.
00:30:59.340 But what people
00:30:59.620 didn't understand
00:31:00.180 was that I could see it
00:31:00.980 at the grassroots ground level.
00:31:02.760 I had been covering
00:31:03.580 all of this violence
00:31:04.400 for so long
00:31:05.160 that there is a left
00:31:07.000 and a right
00:31:07.500 that completely
00:31:08.760 have different views
00:31:11.040 of what is even true.
00:31:12.800 Like,
00:31:13.360 one plus one equals two.
00:31:15.540 The left believes
00:31:16.780 two plus two equals five.
00:31:18.120 It's not an exaggeration.
00:31:19.880 You may be saying,
00:31:21.380 Tim,
00:31:21.640 that's crazy.
00:31:22.860 No one believes
00:31:23.680 two plus two equals five.
00:31:25.460 I'm going to prove it for you.
00:31:27.340 A massive campaign.
00:31:30.180 Let me see if I could,
00:31:30.960 oh,
00:31:31.080 it's hard to actually
00:31:32.560 pull up the,
00:31:35.240 let's,
00:31:36.300 here we go.
00:31:37.860 I'm going to pull it up.
00:31:39.920 Two plus two equals five
00:31:41.440 was a big debate
00:31:42.800 for a long time.
00:31:46.900 Here we go.
00:31:49.080 How two plus two equals five?
00:31:50.760 It's time to tell.
00:31:53.080 Here's a post from Medium.
00:31:55.000 No,
00:31:55.260 two plus two does not equal five,
00:31:56.340 but that was never the point.
00:31:58.940 In August of 2020,
00:32:00.000 an article popped up
00:32:00.880 in Popular Mechanics
00:32:01.720 why some people think
00:32:02.580 two plus two equals five
00:32:03.720 and why they're right.
00:32:07.320 Popular Mechanics published this.
00:32:09.740 You may be saying,
00:32:10.620 this can't be reality, Tim.
00:32:12.420 They even have an image
00:32:13.080 that's two plus two equals five,
00:32:14.300 really.
00:32:15.680 It's,
00:32:16.100 it's not correct.
00:32:17.440 It was never correct.
00:32:18.860 What they're basically saying is,
00:32:20.580 we can get you to believe falsehoods.
00:32:22.580 And if you live in the world
00:32:23.880 largely of the left,
00:32:24.840 you believe this.
00:32:25.520 This is why I plead
00:32:26.560 and I beg and I cry
00:32:27.920 to so many liberals.
00:32:30.440 Get out of the cult.
00:32:32.480 But they can't.
00:32:34.480 I'll make it simple for you.
00:32:35.920 The argument for why
00:32:36.860 two plus two equals five
00:32:38.020 is because of decimals.
00:32:40.940 They say 2.4 rounds down to two.
00:32:43.680 But 2.4 plus 2.4 equals 4.8,
00:32:47.300 which rounds to five.
00:32:48.380 Therefore,
00:32:48.960 to simplify,
00:32:49.660 two plus two equals five.
00:32:51.100 They also make the argument
00:32:52.160 that if you have
00:32:53.800 two individual cubes
00:32:55.600 and two individual cubes
00:32:56.820 and you put them together,
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00:33:56.280 You have 1, 2, 3, 4,
00:33:58.040 ah, but 5 now
00:34:00.180 because they form a cube
00:34:01.520 unto themselves.
00:34:02.800 Therefore,
00:34:04.180 but it's a lie.
00:34:06.820 Intentionally breaking apart
00:34:08.900 or tricking,
00:34:10.500 like,
00:34:11.720 4.2,
00:34:12.740 what is it?
00:34:13.420 If you're doing 2.25,
00:34:16.440 oh, I'm sorry,
00:34:16.900 1.25
00:34:17.560 and 1.25
00:34:18.980 plus 1.25
00:34:20.600 and 1.25,
00:34:22.020 you get 5.
00:34:23.920 That's the cube argument.
00:34:25.540 We have language
00:34:26.340 to describe this phenomenon.
00:34:28.200 There is no circumstance
00:34:29.160 in which you will write
00:34:30.100 2 plus 2 equals 5.
00:34:31.520 But that's the world we live in.
00:34:33.380 And they'll tell me I'm wrong.
00:34:35.480 My friends,
00:34:36.680 I don't know
00:34:37.900 that civil war
00:34:39.080 is going to happen.
00:34:41.340 I can't predict the future.
00:34:42.400 It is a bold statement
00:34:44.480 of Moon
00:34:45.620 to say why it will.
00:34:48.680 Interesting,
00:34:49.700 nonetheless.
00:34:50.820 He makes a good point
00:34:52.060 and I'm afraid
00:34:53.100 that he's actually correct.
00:34:54.760 In my heart of hearts,
00:34:56.500 I am taking every precaution
00:34:58.840 as if at some point
00:34:59.900 there will be a civil war.
00:35:01.240 Why?
00:35:02.980 Because it doesn't matter.
00:35:04.940 If I live in the middle of nowhere
00:35:06.520 in a secure facility,
00:35:08.420 I'm safe from current threats
00:35:09.740 which exist.
00:35:10.940 If civil war breaks out,
00:35:12.180 I'm much safer here
00:35:13.060 than I would be
00:35:13.780 living in a big city.
00:35:15.520 If civil war doesn't break out,
00:35:17.700 I got a skate park.
00:35:19.000 I got a big open field
00:35:20.180 to ride around
00:35:20.680 my little dirt bikes on
00:35:21.800 and can get a dog
00:35:23.260 and it's not bad
00:35:24.820 living in the country.
00:35:26.400 So,
00:35:26.900 the actions I take
00:35:28.900 are in no way
00:35:30.000 detrimental.
00:35:31.920 And if it turns out
00:35:32.620 I am wrong,
00:35:33.220 it won't matter
00:35:33.780 because I'm living good
00:35:35.180 out here in the boonies
00:35:36.200 as it is.
00:35:37.620 If you live in a big city,
00:35:39.520 I gotta be honest,
00:35:40.560 even in current circumstances,
00:35:41.860 it's not fun.
00:35:43.320 You're breathing in
00:35:44.160 disgusting air. 0.98
00:35:46.000 Granted,
00:35:46.320 there's a lot of restaurants
00:35:47.120 nearby,
00:35:47.580 I'll give you that.
00:35:48.960 But I can get my electric vehicle,
00:35:51.000 my Tesla,
00:35:51.740 and I can drive
00:35:52.320 basically anywhere.
00:35:53.780 I got restaurants
00:35:54.400 all over the place too.
00:35:56.160 Big open country roads
00:35:57.380 probably takes me
00:35:58.180 the same amount of time
00:35:58.660 to get there
00:35:59.000 as it does you in the city.
00:36:00.380 So weighing all
00:36:01.400 of these realities,
00:36:03.260 there is no detriment
00:36:04.440 to preparing for
00:36:05.780 the worst case scenario.
00:36:07.200 None.
00:36:07.440 So why not?
00:36:09.360 And I hope I'm wrong.
00:36:11.060 And I hope one day
00:36:11.840 people look back
00:36:12.500 and they laugh and say,
00:36:13.240 that guy thought
00:36:13.800 that was gonna happen. 0.98
00:36:14.600 He was crazy. 0.70
00:36:16.740 Unfortunately, 0.74
00:36:17.900 I think we're on a track
00:36:21.060 everybody kinda recognizes.
00:36:23.560 I'll leave it there.
00:36:25.080 Smash that like button.
00:36:26.120 Share this show.
00:36:26.900 Welcome to the new
00:36:27.600 At Tim Pool channel.
00:36:29.540 Reactions,
00:36:30.080 commentary,
00:36:31.240 less newsy,
00:36:32.140 but this one was pretty newsy.
00:36:33.440 I can't help it.
00:36:34.860 Thanks for hanging out.
00:36:35.480 We'll see you all next time.