Rudyard Lynch and Scott Greer join me to talk about the possibility of a civil war in America within the next year, and why I think it's going to happen. We also talk about an article from the Washington Examiner about a survival camp network that is calling in its members to come to the camp for the week of the mid-term election, and how to prepare for a possible civil war within a year. And we have a special guest on the show today, who is a 23-year-old with no credentials, who bets against God, and is a podcaster and writer who thinks we're going to have a Civil War or Revolution in the United States within the year, by the end of 2020. This episode is brought to you by Jackpot City Casino, the king of all things casino, where you can play classic casino games such as Roulette, Blackjack, Baccarat, and Roulette. Everything's ready for you, everything's for you! BetMGMGMGM and GameSense remind you to play responsibly. If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario at 1-866-531-2600 to speak to an advisor free of charge, or call in to speak with an advisor FREE of charge. BetmGMGMG & GameSense, a partner of the Toronto Maple Leafs, to help solve your gambling problem. . Visit ConnectsOntario.ca/Wager Ontario only to get 20% off your first month of your best bet on the next month of the month, and 20% OFFERING FREE PRICING on the best deal of the year! and the best deals in the market and much more! You can't get more than $10,000 in the world's best deal on everything you could possibly ask for! BethemGM & Game Sense at Connects Ontarion, the best casino game in your favourite casino a chance to win a VIP membership can't be found anywhere else? ! Can't get any better than that's not just one of the best in the best? ? Want to win $100, better than $5,000 and get 10% off $50,000 or $150,000 off the first month and get $25,000 OFF a VIP & $150 off your best day?
00:28:16.100And it was by the end of 1861, several people had died, and everyone knew that this was a war.
00:28:21.780So if you look at the Democrat platform and then you look at the various political politicians, the various positions the politicians had, there was tremendous coping about the war until pretty far in, where people would say, oh, my God, the South's going to back down.
00:28:37.240It's all the things you just said, the South's just doing this for attention, the South, this isn't a real conflict, this is just a constitutional crisis, and then it kept spiraling and spiraling and spiraling.
00:28:47.100That's true, but Fort Sumter was the break that's saying, oh, shit, this is-
00:28:50.920I'm unclear how this relates to the point we're trying to convey, though.
00:28:54.120I was going to say that I agreed with Tim's point that you have gasoline, and then there's a match, and it's unclear what the match is going to be, but there always has to be a match.
00:29:12.540Let's say you have a rainy fall, and a guy starts chucking M-80s and is flamethrowering all across California.
00:29:20.780No wildfire can start, but you get a dry summer, and someone can accidentally, you know, maybe they're driving their car and they get a flat tire, their tire rips off, and then it scrapes on the ground, sparking, the whole thing goes up.
00:29:33.660I'm laughing because the first thought that came into my mind is Mr. Beast making a video, I started the California wildfire.
00:29:41.680I started the Civil War in California, it could maybe be his next video.
00:29:45.720But even on that, I mean, we did, with the conflict between federal and state authority, we did have that in the 50s and 60s over integration, and the federal authority won out.
00:29:54.760And even the states could call upon mobs of violent young men to side with them, even in the case of Ole Miss in 62 when they were trying to integrate it.
00:30:04.400And at Little Rock, they had not just the National Guard and state police, they also had these mobs.
00:30:10.620And I don't think California would have, you know, the type of imposing mobs they had in Ole Miss and Little Rock aren't going to be the middle-aged cat ladies who are going to come out to prevent people from enforcing a federal immigration law.
00:30:25.180So we'll pause here, and I'll say, this is, it's interesting to entertain the similarities between 1860, and technically you'd go back through Bleeding Kansas, and you'd even go back to 1820 when they were already discussing Civil War.
00:30:36.600In fact, there was already contention during the sign of the Declaration of Independence over slavery.
00:30:40.980You look at that, and what you have is sovereign states with a weak federal union, and when they decided the federal union was going to go up against the states, what was stronger, that is not typical of any civil war ever.
00:30:51.660That is the United States as sovereign states effectively in a large-scale war, which is kind of like, more like Europe than anything else.
00:30:58.900If you take a look at Spain or Russia, a tiny, tiny fraction in key areas uses violence to seize control from a rather apathetic general population that doesn't want to be involved.
00:31:10.360And so what we see here is, it may not be, it may be that it's our bias of 1861 that we say maybe the feds will come into Texas, maybe Trump will try and enforce a mass immigration thing.
00:31:21.520Then a state like, we saw this in 2020 when Democrats ran a war game where they actually entertained West Coast states seceding from the union if Donald Trump were to have won in 2020.
00:31:33.420They literally got, like, John Podesta was hanging out with these other big uniparty neolibs and neocons being like, okay, if Trump wins, we're going to need Oregon, Washington, California to secede from the union unless Donald Trump guarantees constitutional reforms and things like this.
00:31:47.480So that conversation was happening, and it's kind of crazy, but I think it's largely due to our biases that we think that's how things would play out.
00:31:53.660I think it's entirely possible that what we end up seeing is more like Chaz Chop level times 10 times 100.
00:31:58.800So we actually had a period in this country where for a few months in the Pacific Northwest, there were autonomous zones set up to the point where they had armed guards.
00:32:07.100They had taken over a police department, kicked out the local police force, surrounded that, and were in control for a couple of months and actually murdered people, actually killed people.
00:32:16.560Then you have the Atlanta Autonomous Zone.
00:32:44.800Where George Floyd Square was occupied to the point where there was a guy on a rooftop with a rifle that people had reported seeing all the time, and there was nothing stopping any of these people from taking this territory.
00:32:54.860Now, we may look – maybe nothing happens.
00:32:57.220You know, fair point on the civil rights movement.
00:32:59.280Many people thought this could lead to a second civil war.
00:33:01.780There's also – I think it was, what, 1876 where they thought the civil war was going to erupt again.
00:33:19.580Or maybe after Trump wins, they flood these cities.
00:33:22.640If you get a state like – look, when they say – when the vice president gives a press conference where she says Donald Trump is a fascist and he is Hitler.
00:33:31.740The message being sent that a lot of Republicans think is she's saying be violent or something like that.
00:33:35.920I don't think that's necessarily the case.
00:33:36.960I think she's saying you as an individual must take individual action to stop Donald Trump and Republicans from gaining power in any way you can.
00:33:45.560Which means I am not concerned about a Democrat cabal or the deep state funneling in 10 million fake ballots in the middle of the night.
00:35:02.000I think maybe it's just normalcy bias or optimism bias where I'm like, I think there's got to be periods of –
00:35:07.700there's got to – you know, we had a caning in the Senate.
00:35:10.160And it wasn't even immediately after that that people were fighting.
00:35:12.320We had seven years of bleeding Kansas.
00:35:13.840This could ignite the bleeding Kansas phase, I suppose.
00:35:17.720That being said, before Abraham Lincoln was inaugurated, seven states seceded from the union.
00:35:22.260It may just be the fact that this election is so contentious, groups instantly rise up saying we will not accept this, and you immediately move into that pre-Civil War phase.
00:35:33.580I can explain the exact context for why I think it's going to happen now, but I'll need to talk for a little bit because it's multiple points.
00:35:39.620So the first one is what I described before, that the Republicans can't handle another four years of Biden because inflation and immigration.
00:35:49.880The Democrats in the reverse, and this is one of the big things that got me onto thinking that we're going to have a war,
00:35:56.040is the left has burned through all of their social capital, and they have no backup plan.
00:36:00.400This is one of the things I've been studying for years, and it's bizarre.
00:36:03.620You look at the leftist-owned organizations like Disney, like California, like, I don't know, half a dozen other things in media.
00:36:14.540Yeah, California is to states what Disney and Bud Light is to businesses.
00:36:20.480And the Democrats have burned through all of their social capital, and whenever I look at leftist institutions, I am completely shocked at their incompetence.
00:36:29.300And the problem is they've boxed themselves into a corner, and I find the Kamala situation to be beautiful because the left is eating their own grave, where they dug their own grave, and now they're forced to—
00:36:48.080Yeah, so they're eating their own grave, and they have no better plan, and the problem is they're controlled by insane DEI hire radicals.
00:37:00.100The fact—just as an example, the fact that Boeing is operating off DEI hires is an example to me that these things are about to go to head, where—because if the left was purely cynical, they'd think, oh, the industries like DEI and the medical industry will keep the competent white guys in there.
00:37:18.080But no, they genuinely believe this stuff, so it will cause social breakdowns.
00:37:23.780The Democrats are in a problem where they've cut out all dissenters, and at the same time, their institutions are dead and can't survive.
00:37:32.480So the left will want to start a war as a way to get out of their own internal issues, which is incredibly common historically.
00:37:41.860So that's one angle of it, the right and the left's self-interest.
00:37:44.280The other angle of it is that the average American is careening very close to bankruptcy now.
00:37:50.020And if you look at the average American's savings, they built them up during COVID, and they're about to hit bankruptcy.
00:37:55.420And the economic issues—the thing that I can't overstate on every single one of these podcasts is how completely miserable the average American is economically, socially, on a variety of different metrics.
00:38:08.940And about 20 percent of Americans are doing better, 80 percent are doing vastly worse, and I don't think the average American can sustain another four years of this.
00:38:17.420And it's going to keep piling up, and there's not going to be a solution until there is a war because the problems that make life so hard for the average American are—
00:38:26.940I'm going to make a video how boomer bureaucracies are destroying America because I think the most dangerous thing to America and the West is the creation of these boomer bureaucracies that just consume everything
00:38:39.700as they continue to try to support the boomers without the population structure they were invented with.
00:38:46.040And so you have the right and the left in positions of desperation.
00:38:49.140You have the average American in positions of desperation.
00:38:51.580And also, we just have no cards left as a society.
00:38:55.660We've burned—so let's say you had a horrible breakup, and you're drinking to get over the breakup, and then you become an alcoholic.
00:39:04.160That's what we are, where we've—every single short-term strategy we would have done, whether money printing, whether burning old social—because we don't make new movies.
00:39:17.260We've burned through all of our old social capital, and now there's no good new movies or music.
00:39:22.060So we've burned through all of the cards we would use to delay this.
00:39:25.620And I frankly think over the period we're talking about right now, so many Americans have been pushed into poverty and bankruptcy that they're just going to say YOLO, and that YOLO—and I want there to be a civil war because that way there's going to be a debt jubilee.
00:39:42.840Well, so I asked our good AI friend to make the average—make a graph showing the average American savings over the past 10 years adjusted for inflation.
00:39:53.820And you can see that we are now below 2014 levels as of today.
00:39:58.940But it's not—what's interesting to me is not that it's comparable to 2014.
00:40:03.240It's the massive drop-off from 2020 to 2020—that's cost three existing data.
00:40:10.560So it's interesting because, okay, well, we're only as bad as we were in 2014, right?
00:40:15.580But imagine how someone feels, and feelings matter more than what is.
00:40:20.360The thing that doesn't cover is cost of living, where cost of living has skyrocketed since 2014 to an insane degree.
00:40:28.380Housing, food—and the last time I was on this show, I was talking about the great wave and the economic patterns used to predict conflicts like this.
00:40:37.100And it's high resource price, high food price, high real estate, economic bull runs, massive government budget that keeps surging.
00:40:49.060And what I've consistently found is that our budget is ridiculous.
00:41:39.560So you can see the average cost of living has gone from 2014 about $50,000 a year to around, it looks like, $65,000 a year, while the average savings has been declining.
00:41:49.840So this is actually an interesting point.
00:41:51.400Where this goes or how this changes, I don't know, but it does show that at least in the past decade, people have not been accumulating savings.
00:42:02.220That is to say that it's like watching—you know, your cell phone is plugged in, and you're using it, and it is charging but still dying because you're using more.
00:42:17.740The thing with civil wars that no one brings up, and I'm glad you teased this point out of me because it's important, but I would never say it without that intro, is the reason people have civil wars is they provide very good plausible deniability for a variety of things.
00:42:30.380If you are envious of your wealthier neighbor and you want to take their stuff, civil war.
00:42:35.440If you're bankrupt and you don't want to pay back your loans, civil war.
00:42:38.840If you won't get reelected in your district due to leftist competition, civil war.
00:42:44.880Civil war is just a get-out-of-jail-free card for a variety of things that are difficult to deal with.
00:42:51.840You could say, like, the medical industry is a tapeworm that consumes America, and you could just say civil war, goodbye medical industry.
00:42:59.580Doctors, you trained for three years, not ten now.
00:43:02.440Civil war is a, in a very cynical sense, is a get-out-of-jail-free card for yes.
00:43:19.080In 2014, the income was just about, what, we're looking at $13,000 above the cost of living, meaning, on average, people were saving or had a certain degree of disposable income.
00:43:30.820We are at the point now where people are struggling to get by.
00:43:36.440On average, this country is paycheck to paycheck.
00:43:39.140I can give you a real simple human equation.
00:43:41.860If the cost of water ever exceeds the wages earned, your society, people, it's civil war, period.
00:43:50.200And this is not a real, it's not a real-world metric.
00:43:54.900What I'm saying is, you see those videos we were talking about a couple weeks ago where there's, like, a lion and a gazelle, and they're both drinking from the watering hole, and they're like, no, no, we're not fighting here.
00:44:03.120Because the lions are like, everybody's got to have water.
00:46:36.960And it's funny that I've had to – I've gone on a lot of podcasts to talk about the Civil War.
00:46:40.980And this is one of those things I really have to hammer into most podcast hosts, and they just don't get it, where most Americans – 80 percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck now.
00:46:49.96040 percent of Americans have less than $400 in savings.
00:46:54.86070 percent have less than $1,000 of savings.
00:46:58.000And it's something people are completely disconnected to.
00:47:00.480But the average American can't make it another four years because there's no countervening force to this.
00:47:06.700And when you look at the world, you'll see a measure, and you think, what's the pressure against that?
00:47:11.820The pressure against that can often equalize it or push it back.
00:47:15.300And there's no force in America that's actively pushing against that trend.
00:47:21.800There's no – because AI is the big advance I see recently, and AI is not going to help normal Americans.
00:47:48.780I generated about $1,000 in credit card debt because if I wanted to eat to live and have gas to drive to work, I was using my credit cards.
00:47:56.680But then when my paycheck would come in, I'd be like, okay, shoes – like I have one pair of shoes and they're fried.
00:48:02.340If I want to buy a pair of shoes, if I want to pay my car insurance, if I want to get my registration, all the things I got to do, my paycheck is down to almost nothing, but I have to eat.
00:48:08.760And so then it looks like gas is coming on the credit card.
00:48:11.380Then I have to pay the minimum balance on the credit card, but then the balance goes up.
00:48:15.200Eventually, after six, seven months – I worked there for two years – it got to a point where I said, I'm working – I was working probably like 40, 50 hours a week.
00:48:50.000And I think it's government factors that play a role in this, but let's just say you're working a standard entry-level minimum wage job.
00:48:56.520Now they're going to replace you with a kiosk, and they've already done it.
00:48:59.520The Taco Bell over here, you walk in, it's four kiosks, and you walk up, and you just go boop, boop, boop, and then there's two guys in the back making the food.
00:49:07.620They walk up and go, number 54, you don't need a cashier anymore.
00:49:11.120You just have only a couple of people.
00:49:12.640They've dramatically reduced the amount of people who have jobs.
00:49:14.740So now you're going to have an increasing number of people trying to file for benefits.
00:49:19.000Now we're looking at another equation.
00:49:20.280The amount of buying power and resources put into the U.S. system, welfare base, is going to become less than the amount of people extracting from it.
00:49:46.580I think automation is a good thing, but it has to be properly managed.
00:49:48.860If we get to the point where we say, you don't need fast food workers anymore, let's do UBI.
00:49:55.260This is a big push that I remember going back to Occupy where people said we should have universal basic income because automation is replacing a lot of labor.
00:50:02.180So now everybody should have a bare minimum access to these things.
00:50:07.480So the guy who lives in the city and no longer works at Taco Bell but still gets the equivalent of minimum wage at 40 hours a week is going to be sitting in his living room enjoying life.
00:50:15.920And let's say he's a very upstanding citizen.
00:50:27.580You will always have, and I don't think there's a way to properly manage it, a situation where someone has to do work and someone else does not with automation.
00:50:35.820And that is another recipe for civil war.
00:50:38.900What you're talking about is the same calculation as aging.
00:50:41.760And sadly, both of us are hitting – both of them are hitting us at the exact same time where aging will naturally end up in an issue where you have a small young population working to support a large elderly population.
00:50:53.740And the young population will get intensely resentful about that, especially if you look at the boomers.
00:50:59.560The boomers have done very financially well for their whole life.
00:51:02.580And so you're asking Zoomers who have basically been screwed over their whole lives to support the boomers' retirements.
00:51:08.140And so that's going to end up becoming a massive issue.
00:51:48.120Currently, I think the estimate is between 2.8 and 4 workers to cover the cost of one Social Security recipient.
00:51:54.920So as we have an aging population and a depopulation at the same time, this is another reason I think Democrats want to bring in as many illegal immigrants as possible to bolster the tax base.
00:52:06.660Because if you get to that point, which they're estimating 2032, where Social Security becomes insolvent and they can only pay out what goes into it, there's going to be a lot of very angry boomers and older Gen Xers who are going to be saying, I paid into this.
00:52:23.900And they're going to say, except due to the cost of living increase in inflation, you've paid into at one times and you need 2.8 to four times to pay you back.
00:52:33.680Now you're asking young people to do labor for you.
00:52:38.320The conflict becomes powerful elites who control structures and can influence and guarantee food and resources to younger people who fight and younger people who fight.
00:52:45.820No, I totally agree on the generational conflict matter, but I don't know if we will have a civil war between the boomers and the villages versus the blue haired zoomers.
00:52:56.720But I do agree with your point that whoever pays the military, that's who they're going to serve.
00:53:00.660And it's going to be the boomers and Gen Xers serving them.
00:53:04.000But on the automation, I actually have to give some defense of automation because a lot of these jobs that are going to be replaced by automation, that's what we're bringing in the illegals and immigrants to do.
00:53:16.400I mean, I don't know about the local Taco Bell, but you can go to a lot of Taco Bells, even off the interstate and rural areas, and you'll see somebody barely speaks English at that job.
00:53:26.460And you'd probably be – actually, I'd much rather have an AI kiosk to help me there.
00:53:31.200And that would also – a lot of these people, if they're like they don't have a job, then they'll go back to Guatemala.
00:53:36.260So I think actually there are a lot of Americans who are hurt by this, but a lot of the Americans who are hurt are already on the welfare system as is.
00:53:43.660Now, there are some things that – negative that would be impacted, but there's other things that would be positively impacted.
00:53:50.120Now, on the point of the economic problems, I mean, we've had several severe economic problems throughout our history.
00:53:57.100You know, throughout the 19th century, panic of 1837, elsewhere, there was times where people had all their savings wiped out and they could no longer feed themselves.
00:54:05.640And this was even the case in the Great Depression.
00:54:10.180The thing about America is that our poorest people are able to be obese, that they're eating too much, and they don't have to worry about food and water.
00:54:19.120Now, they do have to worry about where they're going to sleep at night and this, but they also even have iPhones and all these trinkets that, you know, the poor people who are literally starving in Africa could never dream of.
00:54:33.120And going to your point about the, you know, with the debt, people – individual people having debt and all these problems and then civil war solving that, but that's an individual – that's on the individual level.
00:54:45.260An individual himself cannot start a civil war.
00:54:49.320And so if a large group, you know, it has to be like a state of something, you know, a sizable amount of people, millions of people who all have the same problem and then saying, okay, this civil war, we're starting that.
00:55:02.040And generally, if you look at past conflicts, it's either that they feel that their rights are being denied or that they would like independence for their spot of land or that there is this grave insult that the majority population of the government paid to their culture of some sort.
00:55:19.420But when these individual problems, bankruptcy or whatever – a lot of these solutions for these individual problems is bankruptcy, but you're suggesting it's actually civil war is the better solution for those problems.
00:55:33.080I mean, bankruptcy doesn't solve that you can't feed your two small children.
00:55:36.860True, but I think in America pretty much – I mean, the thing is, is that people find a way to feed their children, whether it's food stamps or anything.
00:55:45.780We have such a system that we don't really have to worry about the mass starvation of a level that we did in the 19th century.
00:55:52.660My point is saying that when the – when we get to the level where more people have to pay into benefits and do work, when the majority is receiving these benefits, the system is inverted and it can't sustain itself.
00:56:05.980Then you're going to find – perhaps it's a simple economic collapse.
00:56:11.480It doesn't necessarily mean everyone's going to go start fighting, but it does mean the system is shattered.
00:56:16.560I think a collapse is a better way of saying it, but we don't know what would happen afterwards.
00:56:21.280I mean, it would probably be roving bands of gangs.
00:56:23.200It's like the Roman Empire with these war bands around.
00:56:26.720I mean, the fall of the Roman Empire is basically MS-13 and Hell's Angels and these gangs just fighting it out over the remnants.
00:56:32.900The factor that I believe is on top of all of this is that with all of these issues we are describing, not one single one being a guarantee of civil war, you have to factor in that there are two distinct moral worldviews between the right and the left.
00:56:44.300And when these problems – when the system collapses, when there's an inversion, when you look at the willingness to engage in violence from the left already, then you basically have not one moment, but you have ingredients in a single cauldron, which could be civil war.
00:56:59.860And again, that's why I'm saying I don't know that I agree – I said I don't agree that by April there's 1,000 dead people.
00:57:04.880That being said, the summer of love was something like 36 deaths, and that was a period of, what, four days?
00:57:10.040So if we get something like that sustained every four days, 30-plus deaths, I don't know – we're going to get to 1,000, but we'll certainly have hundreds.
00:57:18.300The first is we're acting as if the historic record doesn't exist, but the reality is the historic record is the only thing we actually have to study.
00:57:25.240And if you look at the historic record, war is completely normal.
00:57:29.400If you want to bet over someone's life whether or not there will be a major war, you should always bet there's going to be a major war in every lifetime.
00:57:35.480And keep in mind, the bloodiest events in history all occurred within living memory.
00:57:40.800People who fought in World War II and lived through Stalinism and Nazism are still alive today.
00:57:45.600So we're not better people than we were 70 years ago, and war is really normal.
00:57:49.920How many of those wars have happened within Western Europe and the homeland of America?
00:57:55.320I mean, we've had wars several all throughout the Third World, but how many of those wars have taken place in the West?
00:58:14.680If starting today we had a Summer of Love-style level of violence and has to start today until the end of April, that would be 1,645 deaths.
00:58:27.240So if we were to cut that by a third and remove two months from the equation and start from the end of December, then Rudyard's estimate makes sense if we get Summer of Love level of violence in December.
00:58:40.440It's difficult to convey that point, but you look at war, and let's say there's a very basic supply chain breakdown, even stuff like you can't get medical equipment for a few weeks.
00:58:52.300That's millions of deaths because of millions of deaths because of millions of people are relying upon very complex medical systems.
00:58:58.200If Los Angeles, the port of Los Angeles gets blockaded for a few weeks.
01:00:50.260Yeah, I think if you were having the type of riots you were having in the late 60s, 1,000 could be reasonable.
01:00:56.960I mean, because, you know, these cities throughout the country in 67, 68 were basically going under an insurrection, and hundreds were dying.
01:01:05.320I think, you know, like hundreds died in Detroit and New York.
01:01:08.760So if you do have that situation, you could have that.
01:01:11.620But even in our mass riots we had in 2020, where we had 36 die, but there were far more riots and it was everywhere, it was still very bad.
01:01:22.540I'm not trying to downplay the summer of 2020, but it was less bad than what it was in 68, where, you know, the type of violence that was being able to commit was more even back then.
01:01:35.200Now, this could change. Maybe this happens after the election in 2024, but who would be committing this violence?
01:01:42.800And the people who would be most worked up about the election, say, if Trump wins, would be middle-aged cat ladies.
01:01:49.940It would not be the urban population that you need that were waging this insurrection back in the late 60s.
01:01:56.420And even now when people go up and there's enough man on the street interviews with local blacks in Chicago and Detroit, and they're like, I like Trump.
01:02:05.100You know, they're like, I don't know if those people are going to be rioting.
01:02:10.820I mean, their votes aren't real, but I just don't think that they're not that angry about Trump.
01:02:14.200These videos are not including the Kamala voters.
01:02:17.160They're intentionally asking 10 people and then showing the five Trump voters.
01:02:20.500I think the majority of those areas are 100% going for Kamala, and a lot of those guys who say they're voting for Trump, their ballot has already been cast for Kamala.
01:02:28.020But I'm just saying that they don't seem that upset by Trump.
01:02:31.380But understand, you're talking about selectively edited videos to make a point where – and I've talked about – there was one recently that went viral where it's a guy working at a gas station, and he asked the young black men coming in, who are you voting for?
01:02:42.640And you can see in the background there are other people, but for some reason never appear in his video because he's showing the Trump supporters.
01:02:49.960And it's fine if you want to say, look at these black men I met who want to support Trump, but they're not including the Harris voters, which is the overwhelming majority in those areas.
01:02:57.160Additionally, just because there are cat ladies who overwhelmingly vote in one direction doesn't mean it's reasonable to assume they'd be the ones fighting.
01:03:04.240Well, they were the ones who protested immediately after Trump was one in 2016.
01:03:08.880What matters is control of assets and the means to control a young person who is capable or willing to fight.
01:03:16.300Then there's also – if you live in – this is interesting.
01:03:19.700When you look at that movie Civil War that came out earlier in the year, the map they drew shows West Virginia as part of the federal apparatus.
01:03:28.940Why would West Virginia – because West Virginia is territorially locked and will be conquered in two seconds.
01:03:32.860Now, to be fair, West Virginia probably will not be conquered in two seconds because it's mountainous and very hard to move through and gain control of.
01:03:39.420But because of its proximity to D.C., it's going to be left.
01:03:43.900West Virginia is the second most Trump-supporting state in the country.
01:03:46.980But it's going to be one of the first moves made by federal authorities in the event of any kind of state dispute.
01:03:51.460I'm not saying that's what's going to happen.
01:03:52.360I'm saying that's why the movie predicted West Virginia would be aligned with Virginia and Maryland because of proximity.
01:03:57.500So my point there is cat ladies are going to sit there and complain, and then they're going to vote, and the politicians are going to say these are the allocation of resources.
01:04:06.840Then there's going to be a bunch of Zoomers who are like, look, man, I'm in the National Guard, and I live in Maryland, and they're ordering me to do this.
01:04:18.020The point I was bringing up is like who is doing the fighting, who's taking the streets, and who's committing the acts of violence.
01:04:22.960Now, as I want to make the point, I don't think young black men are a majority or even a significant number of them besides 10, 15, or 20 percent are actually voting for Trump.
01:04:34.500I just think that they're not that energized enough to commit the acts of violence, and I would say it's probably similar with young Hispanic men.
01:04:42.600Civil wars, wars are a young men's game.
01:04:44.920So you have to find some demographic of young men capable of committing violence and doing bad things out in the street.
01:04:51.520And right now, I don't think the left has that element.
01:04:55.180So if Trump wins, it would be, once again, a replay of the Women's March that happened in 2016, which the women in the pussy hats are just not going to be toppling much of anything.
01:05:06.860And I don't even know if Trump voters are going to do the same thing if he is not, if he's declared the loser, because they're worried of what happened after January 6th, and they don't want that to happen to them.
01:05:18.120If you look at it like the pussy hat wearing women are the establishment neolib neocons that have, at right now, control of large police departments, I don't understand why we'd ever make the argument that they'd go around smashing things.
01:05:33.540If the conflict arises where you have the Nancy, like Nancy Pelosi, right?
01:05:38.420She was saying she wanted, what did she want?
01:05:40.540Full auto 50 cal turrets or something?
01:06:01.920I mean, that's, you know, it wasn't the cat ladies going around arresting all these guys.
01:06:05.580It was sending out, you know, the FBI and SWAT teams.
01:06:08.200And so what did we see in 2018 that ignited the first conversations of a potential civil war?
01:06:13.900It was 1,000 right-wing men and 1,000 left-wing men fighting in the streets of the Pacific Northwest and beating each other with clubs.
01:06:21.440Or in Boston, when Antifa showed up with crowbars and baseball bats and masks, and the right showed up with shields and, you know, military-style looking clothing.
01:06:29.000I say looking clothing because they're basically wearing, like, body armor and camo, but it probably wasn't even real body armor.
01:07:31.240As I was going to say, we're acting like the historic record doesn't exist, but it does.
01:07:35.820And everything we're seeing now is completely normal in a society up to a civil war.
01:07:39.520And you've asked me multiple times who would fight.
01:07:42.300And if you look at these historic crises, most people are apathetic, especially so in wars outside America where most people are just peasants who farm.
01:07:50.880And then the Lord tells them what to do.
01:07:52.360And in the English Civil War, which is one of the closest parallels, it was widely known in England that the English were too weak to fight.
01:07:59.180These have been over a century since England had had a war.
01:08:01.980What happened then is that in each case, it's small groups of radicals that push for this.
01:08:07.780The Bolsheviks, the Jacobins, all these groups are like less than 3% of the population.
01:08:17.420And for the right, there's lots of young men who would happily fight for the right because the left has boxed them into a corner.
01:08:24.240And for the left, both sides would conscript people because when the government walks up to your door and says, your son's going to fight for us, you can't tell them no.
01:08:33.380And the left would probably arm illegals because that's a demographic they could pull from.
01:08:39.360They'd hire foreign mercenaries and arm illegals.
01:08:41.480But this is why I've said in my videos, the right has an 80% chance of winning because the right provides much better incentives for the young men who would fight.
01:08:49.180But let's not forget, erase all of this.
01:08:52.600Let's say that there is a – it is a fact the left and the right are at extreme odds in this country.
01:08:57.480Whether it goes to civil war, who knows?
01:08:58.640Because China, Iran, Russia – in fact, all of BRICS has an incentive for this conflict to happen, which would end the petrodollar, basically destroy the United States, and allow the BRICS reserve currency to take over.
01:09:11.440In every conflict – let's go to the American Revolution – you had outside financiers.
01:09:16.100So we say, ha-ha, the French intervened and helped us win our independence.
01:10:03.480And then if it got to the point where there was a pile of tinder, China is going to march right in and try and figure out how to light it up.
01:10:09.500But yeah, I find that with – who is the force pushing for American unity?
01:10:18.640Because there's lots of forces pushing for disunity, but I see no single unifying thing in America.
01:10:24.620There's no one thing all Americans can agree on.
01:17:13.820Because let's say that it's left rising up against the federal government, and so it could be anywhere in this country.
01:17:19.660I'm just pointing out that this is the left and saying that the federal government, maybe the state of Washington decides to go along with the left, or maybe they decide to go with the federal government.
01:17:28.540I'm just pointing out that example, is that if it's one locality that rises up against the federal government for either the right or the left, there could be multiple other sides being formed afterwards, but they're rising up against the federal government.
01:17:43.920It'd be like in the Syrian civil war, where initially they're rising up against the government, and then many other factions began to form.
01:17:49.780Like in the Pacific Northwest, when I think it was something like 110 days, where far leftists were throwing explosives at the federal building surrounding it, and the building was shut down, federal authorities were trapped inside, Trump called in numerous different federal law enforcement, but the government of Portland, the local government, sided with the far left extremists who were firebombing a building.
01:18:09.800Yeah, and that would be a sign that the local government is then siding with the left, that that escalated past that, and that they're trying to take over the entirety of Portland, and then Portland's city government is like, oh, we're siding with them.
01:18:20.640They would have to choose whether they side with the left, but I want to put this out that I don't think this is likely.
01:18:26.080I'm just saying that's a possible scenario.
01:18:27.500So do you believe that if an ideological faction in a city started trying to take over or destroy a federal building in defiance of federal authority and fought with federal authorities and the state sided with them, would that be a civil war?
01:18:41.740No, but it could be a sign of a possible civil war that arises.
01:18:45.140That's happening elsewhere, and then that begins to escalate into they're trying to take over the city.
01:18:50.340It would have to be taking over, like, Chaz in this incident, if there's, like, tons of Chaz that's taking over, and then Chaz tries to expand to take over the city, I would say that that's a warning sign of something that could happen with a civil war.
01:19:04.320So if a large group of, say, leftists had an autonomous zone that they controlled, like the size of Chaz, and people that had already been killed, but if Chaz then started to expand, that makes you think maybe a civil war could happen.
01:19:16.680Maybe if they're trying to take over the city and that they have many, many allies across the country and that there's a sizable part of the population that agrees with them.
01:19:27.060People were misled into thinking these are just peaceful protesters.
01:19:32.280If you ask American people and they're like, do you support the left-wing autonomous or whatever they want to call themselves taking over the entire state of Washington and declaring themselves independent of the United States government?
01:19:42.720And then, like, 20%, 30% of the population is like, yes.
01:19:47.040Then you have a chance of that there's some type of secession or civil war happening.
01:19:51.180But I don't believe this is happening.
01:19:53.160And even with Chaz, that's a disturbing element that we could see more of.
01:19:57.160But it's almost like the no-go zones that you see in Europe with the, you know, Islamic neighborhoods just sprouting up and it's being ruled effectively by Sharia law.
01:20:31.260There was one story where they unloaded for about 10 minutes hundreds of rounds into a white SUV just because it was a violation of their territory.
01:20:38.200And they said you were, they assumed it was, they were told it was white supremacists.
01:20:41.080Well, I mean, there are gang-run territories where they kill a lot of people in America.
01:21:02.080What I'm saying is that there are territories, even in America, which are gang-run.
01:21:05.540Let me tell you that even in Chicago, the idea that there would be a sectioned-off area with security guards, barriers, and a police station that was completely taken over, and that men with rifles would unload for 10 minutes hundreds of rounds into SUVs, and there were other people who were murdered.
01:22:13.860I mean, the fact that they do have border guards, but there is a way that there is a different law governing those areas than what's the normal law.
01:22:21.160And it would be even the same in Sharia law.
01:22:24.540And there could be something of these sorts where I think if they actually had armed border guards and tried to do an exact replica of Chaz where it's like they are – there's in some ways an understanding that they're separate from the rest of the city and they're separate from the country.
01:22:40.520There would be more of a force put on them to end that.
01:22:45.100But there could be these areas where essentially the left have their own autonomous commune and that they're running it the way they see fit, and then police are just – no, not to go there.
01:22:54.980So when I went to Sweden, they loved it when I was – when I first arrived, I met with this Green Party politician who's like a liberal, and I said, tell me what's going on in this country.
01:24:20.400No, they're extremely prejudiced against anybody who is not a native-born white sweet who speaks their language perfectly.
01:24:26.280So if you are, like, the encounter that I had with a lot of people who were dual citizens, whose parents were Swedish, and then they moved there later, what I found was a lot of people being like, you know, it's really hard for me here because I have an American accent when I speak Swedish.
01:24:43.800So what happens then is Rinkaby, these young men who are Somali, grow up in a society that treats them like others, but they have no home in Somalia.
01:24:59.860Coming with a camera, coming into their neighborhood, and they view themselves as not attached to the state because the police are white people who treat them like they're not Swedish.
01:25:07.920So they've just formed an isolated enclave, which acts as its own internal state.
01:25:22.420It was when you came in acting like you were part of the institutions outside that people would start yelling and saying, what are you doing here?
01:25:32.940You couldn't enter these places without passing through a barricade in armed groups.
01:25:36.540If you went, for instance, in Atlanta, there were shootings.
01:25:41.380So there was a big difference between there's a group of people that have a dramatically different worldview and view of the state and what the left did when they took these places over.
01:25:50.320But I mean, the only comparison I was just saying that they have an isolated internal state where they see themselves as something separate from the rest of society, which we already sort of have those places in America.
01:26:01.080But you could have more that it's ideologically purposed for the left and they're taking over neighborhoods.
01:26:06.200You effectively said that you will not believe that there's a civil war until you see a civil war.
01:26:11.260So I don't see the point of this discussion because if you're not going to accept any amount of evidence that there will be a civil war until there is a civil war, there's nothing I can say to you.
01:27:00.240So there's ways to study these conflicts, and I've studied basically every single revolution, and there's a variety of metrics used to predict them in advance.
01:27:11.320And so the four parallels I look to the most are the English Civil War, the French Revolution, the fall of the Roman Republic, and the American Civil War.
01:27:22.520And for each of them, if the war starts, there's going to be way more than 1,000 deaths.
01:27:30.060I stand by the bet because I made it with Andrew Heaton a year ago.
01:27:33.000But if there's going to be a war, 1,000 deaths is what happens in a single wing of a single battle because if you look at all those conflicts, English Civil War, American Civil War, French Revolution, fall of the Roman Republic, the society was at peace.
01:27:49.160The political switch gets flipped, and then there's war.
01:28:29.420If you think that the Republicans and Democrats as they exist right now could muster the forces to have a civil war, then that would be a point.
01:28:37.380But I just don't see that with a Republican.
01:28:38.980What does that mean, muster the forces?
01:28:40.240That they could tell their people to commit acts of violence and kill other people.
01:28:44.180I don't think the Republicans and Democrats could do that, no.
01:28:47.900But when – do you think that like world leaders are like, young man, go kill those people?
01:28:53.820Or do you think they're like, I need you to guard this territory, don't let anyone pass?
01:28:56.880I don't think they could get them to guard this territory.
01:28:59.560I mean nobody's going to – if you're like listening to a lot of these Republican leaders, I mean besides Trump, but imagine – you know, I'd have to think of – I don't want to say Lindsey Graham because people would be never say – but let's even say Josh Hawley trying to get people to do out there and do that.
01:31:19.760What I'm saying is that they have the troops there, and then the chain of command asks, do we have the order to kill?
01:31:26.260And then the governor at this point in the leadership is not going to give that order.
01:31:30.140They have to go through the chain of command with the assumption that they would have that order if they are challenged by either the federal government or some left-wing militia or something.
01:31:44.140When they have come up to the precipice of having a point where they challenge either the federal government or challenge the other side, say January 6th, or anywhere else, they back down.
01:31:55.660And I don't – you don't really have that capacity for violence.
01:31:58.960And even when he's bringing up the English Civil War, that's true.
01:33:24.860And federal authority, Trump's state authority here.
01:33:27.240He could go to New York and tell them to try that.
01:33:30.400And New York is going to back down on that scenario.
01:33:32.340They're not going to try to arrest the president because they know how that's going to look on the world stage.
01:33:35.640They're not going to want to have China, Russia look at a random state arresting the president for paying a porn star.
01:33:43.440They're not going to have that threat to the federal order.
01:33:45.660So first, the several things brought up here is when you said they would not do that, we have to consider what the law enforcement apparatus that exists in this country is.
01:33:55.420It ranges from – there's a wide range of components of force.
01:34:48.800What happens more likely is that jurisdictions controlled by the federal government will say we are going to follow the rules and the chain of command.
01:34:56.820And jurisdictions controlled by Democrats with their authority, National Guard, police or otherwise, will say we're going to follow the orders of our leadership.
01:35:04.620There's not likely to be a scenario – or I should say there is likely to be many scenarios in which the federal government may try to instruct local authorities who say we don't answer to you.
01:35:14.840We answered it to the governor, not to the federal government.
01:35:18.080In which case if New York says Donald – there is absolutely a potential where New York says Trump has been convicted and must go to jail.
01:35:25.020He cannot pardon himself at the state level.
01:35:27.900And then California and Illinois and other – and Washington and Oregon say if Donald Trump sets foot in our states, we will enforce the law.
01:35:38.480It's that the law applies to everyone and no one is above the law and he's been convicted before he was president.
01:35:42.940Getting elected does not change the fact that he has to go to jail.
01:35:45.560Let's say he goes to Washington and they say, Mr. President, will you peacefully come?
01:35:49.720You're under arrest to be extradited to New York for your sentencing and jail term.
01:35:54.200Trump's going to have to say no to that.
01:35:55.920The states probably – and that's why I don't agree with Rudyard on 1,000 deaths – will be like, there's no way we're going to try to send police to arrest Donald Trump.
01:36:03.900Because – however, we are already asking – this is a question that is already being asked.
01:36:08.400Donald Trump is under Secret Service protection and already there's a question of, what if Trump said he would not go to New York to stand trial?
01:36:15.880We know that the trials are overtly political and none of them make sense.
01:36:18.540I argue that Donald Trump, when he was in Florida and New York and Georgia issued these criminal charges, what Trump should have done is said, they are welcome to come to Florida and serve the paperwork.
01:36:30.540I don't listen to TV reports and I do not respect a phone call to a lawyer about what is going on.
01:36:37.920They can enforce the law as the law prescribes, knock on my door, deliver the warrant, and I will peacefully and gladly join them in answering to these charges.
01:36:45.880That would put Ron DeSantis in a very serious position where he's going to have to determine whether or not his state authorities are going to abide by New York authorities to come and arrest the guy who's the frontrunner.
01:36:56.660Trump instead says, I will go by peacefully at your request despite the fact your lack of ability to enforce this.
01:37:04.360What happens after Trump wins – and this is reality.
01:37:21.500There is the next case where blue states and Democrats who have literally said Trump is Hitler, who's a despot, who's going to go round up and be Hitler, round up illegal migrants.
01:37:30.760I'm sorry, refugees, they would call them.
01:37:32.080And then what happens when you combine Donald Trump's efforts to deport 15 to 20 million illegal immigrants using the police and local military with the fact that the blue states already say he is a convicted felon who should be in prison.
01:37:44.780Now they're going to say, as Jamie Raskin already stated this in February, Jamie Raskin said in a panel discussion live on YouTube, Donald Trump is ineligible to be president and we will block the certification on January 6, 2025.
01:38:00.260There will be civil war conditions, he said.
01:38:02.680Now imagine this scenario where Trump wins.
01:38:20.920These Democrats then go to their states and say, not only is Trump a convicted felon who should be in prison, he's not even eligible to be president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
01:38:30.980And he is illegally occupying the White House through administrative means.
01:38:34.380And the Supreme Court is protecting him because they're his cronies that he installed.
01:38:37.840You then end up with blue states saying if Donald Trump steps foot in this state, he will be arrested and extradited to New York where we have an agreement to send him.
01:38:50.440What we can say right now is we don't know what the blue states will do.
01:38:53.460But it is true that Democrats have said they won't certify.
01:38:56.200Trump is a felon and should be in prison.
01:38:58.880How will blue states handle this worldview that Trump is Hitler, about to round up migrants and refugees, is illegally occupying the White House while ineligible, has stacked the Supreme Court and should be in prison?
01:39:12.060How do they rectify that worldview while going?
01:39:17.780Now, it is possible that we don't see any formal governance like Newsom or Whitmer, whoever else, calling on their National Guard or sheriffs to go arrest Trump.
01:39:28.040But I think it's entirely possible that you'll see volunteer fighters, people who are just like I'm here to uphold the rule of law in this country and keep my oath to the Constitution, which is Donald Trump is illegally occupying the White House.
01:39:41.200And then the risk is if Trump goes to Michigan and militia forces that are aligned with Democrats say we're – Antifa is a better way to describe them.
01:39:49.780The John Brown Gun Club, the Red Guard, et cetera, for Antifa's various factions, what do you have – Rose City, Antifa and these other wingnut factions may present such a threat that I would throw it back to what Rudyard said last week.
01:40:01.700You're not seeing standing armies shooting each other.
01:40:04.040You're seeing bombs going off in major cities.
01:40:13.600But I do – if you set out that potentiality where they're like we will try to arrest Trump by any means necessary and they do have these militias and they even maybe want their own law enforcement to try to arrest them and they effectively try to kidnap the president.
01:40:43.460They're going to say we're not going to do this.
01:40:46.280But what happens when you have – you already have John Brown Gun Club.
01:40:52.080There's a guy that – one of these guys who asserted himself as Antifa and I believe he said John Brown Gun Club went to an ICE facility throwing Molotovs and shooting at ICE agents.
01:41:01.400I believe it is very likely, terrifyingly so, that if Trump wins with the factors that are already true right now, Democrats have stated he's ineligible and will not certify.
01:41:13.040Maybe they do certify, but they still say he's ineligible.
01:41:15.200They've – the vice president went on TV at a press conference and said he is calling for generals like Hitler.
01:41:27.080These are what have been espoused by the Democrats in the media.
01:41:29.400And Trump is a convicted felon who is facing sentencing.
01:41:32.500With those factors in mind and the two assassination attempts on Trump already, the likelihood that if Trump goes to a Democrat jurisdiction, he will face extreme violence from roving factions of insurgency, terroristic violence, I believe is 100%.
01:41:46.960You don't need Newsom to order the National Guard when you have roving bands of leftist extremists who believe Trump is Hitler and will do anything to stop him.
01:41:56.960There's been two assassination attempts and one assassination plot, and it is – I would say it's fair to say confirmed that there are Iranian assassination teams going after Donald Trump.
01:42:06.620Now, I would not say it's entirely impossible that that happens.
01:42:10.240But, I mean, even with the assassination attempts, those are alone individuals not connected to any militias or any type of –
01:42:46.280And even what we were seeing a few years ago in 2022, you did have these Antifa guys out with AR-15s protecting Drag Queen Story Hour from protesters.
01:42:56.500Obviously, they didn't need any protection.
01:43:37.040Now, with the people dying, I mean, there are probably some people who would die, but not enough to make the – for the conditions you do want.
01:43:44.380What are you basing that assessment off?
01:43:46.660I'm basing it on the assessment of American people right now.
01:43:49.120I mean, American people, there's only about like 20% of young men who are even fit for military service.
01:43:54.780Even with the amount of people who are most politically engaged, it's generally middle-aged people.
01:43:59.400I mean, young men are probably the least politically engaged demographic in this country.
01:44:03.940Now, some of them could be animated to fight, but I don't really – you don't really see that conditions at the moment.
01:44:09.400And even at the elite level, you don't see people calling for that type of war.
01:44:13.900And even in the – I know you don't like the American Civil War references, but even in the lead-up to the American Civil War, you had many of these Southern leaders of the caliber of John C. Calhoun, Jefferson Davis.
01:44:28.180They were the leadership cast, and they were saying, we are willing to fight and die for our rights, and we are willing to separate for them.
01:44:34.740You don't have those voices right now.
01:44:36.740And even with the Spanish Civil War, if you want to bring up to a more recent conflict, you already had social turbulence in that country where the left had overthrown the monarchical government just a few years before, and the military was still not loyal to the current government, and the military had the instincts and the wherewithal to actually revolt against the civil government.
01:44:57.740Now, I'd have to say who – in terms of who would be willing to do the fighting and organizing these people, I don't really see that at the elite level.
01:45:08.080I mean, there are certainly voices online that may say this, but I don't see this.
01:45:12.080I don't see the leadership cast going along with this.
01:45:16.340I don't see a significant mass amount of people who are willing to fight and die for this.
01:45:21.360They may say that online, but when it actually came to the time to fight, I don't think they would do that.
01:45:26.220I am part of the demographic you're describing, and I know that demographic very closely, and there is a lot of young, white, right-wing men who would happily die in a war.
01:45:38.220And the reason I say that is that we're at a point where that demographic is so screwed over by society that it's the best option where if you – and I've been involved in the incel revolution.
01:45:50.820I made a video on the incel revolution.
01:45:56.460In that video, people – it's been memed to hell, and people take it to me as something I didn't actually mean, where when I talked about that video, I don't think there's actually going to be people who call themselves incels who launch a revolution in order to get laid.
01:46:12.280I think we're going to have this civil war crisis, and both sides of the civil war will be fought by sexually frustrated young men.
01:46:46.540Now, that's a defining difference between the right and left is the right – the reason why we don't – yeah, as you said, people – we have stuff to lose.
01:46:53.200People don't – and that's even what happened with the J6 people.
01:46:57.360They lost everything over that protest.
01:46:59.160There are two demographics of right-wingers, and people forget that the latter exists, and they think only at the first.
01:47:05.420And when I talk to older people, they'll say, oh, yeah, the young people who will go hard and they'll sacrifice for the cause among the young are the leftists, and the leftists are the ones who will die in battle, and the rightists won't.
01:47:16.560I'm thinking, what planet do you live on?
01:47:18.840Where if you – if I am a Zoomer, I know many Zoomers.
01:47:22.280Leftist Zoomers are completely anxious.
01:47:24.720They're completely incapable of doing anything.
01:47:26.520And you look at Chaz, you look at the Columbia protests.
01:47:30.160In the Columbia protests, they put up this whiteboard saying you can't drink, you can't have sex, you can't swear, you can't misgender any people.
01:47:39.200Among young right-wing white men, there is that demographic because they've been completely screwed over by DEI hiring.
01:47:46.940They can't – they have no social mobility.
01:47:49.660Two-thirds of men under 30 are single.
01:47:52.220One-third of men under 30 are virgins.
01:47:54.000So you have this huge demographic of basically young white men who are completely screwed over by society, and there's no feedback mechanism for them because society doesn't even acknowledge their issues.
01:48:05.140So for them, a revolution is a strategically accurate decision to end at because it's their group self-interest that cooperates, and they're completely left out of any other form of power equation.
01:49:25.740And they're not taking the streets as is.
01:49:28.260They don't really have much of a physical presence in the world, which is different from Antifa.
01:49:33.600Antifa was always out there and showing themselves out in the real world.
01:49:37.500Meanwhile, the young right-wingers, which is generally smart because society and the system would come down on them much harder than Antifa, they don't turn out on the streets.
01:49:46.740So I just don't—maybe if there becomes a critical mass of them and they eventually take to the streets, maybe there is a younger J6 after if Trump loses.
01:49:59.460I mean, maybe, but I don't see that happening.
01:50:02.260You've already said you're not going to change.
01:50:03.800You're basically—you won't see it till you believe it.
01:50:06.340Or you won't believe it till you see it.
01:50:09.320If there's a Fort Sumter event, that's basically—it doesn't have to be exactly like Fort Sumter, but there's essentially—everyone agrees that this is a breaking point.
01:50:19.380There's now violence being committed against—between the two sides.
01:50:23.940So the challenge is what I think Rudyard and I are making the argument of is we don't know when the Civil War will start, what it will look like.
01:50:29.840He thinks a thousand people will die, and your position is it will not start at all, but if it happens, then I'll believe it could happen.
01:51:33.900I'm just saying that if when a Civil War happens and I can declare it a Civil War is when it actually occurs.
01:51:39.440What I always find fascinating in these conversations, especially when I had—
01:51:42.840I mean, by forecasting, but I'm saying the forecast that I'm making is that it does not show Civil War.
01:51:48.360I mean, we could say that a hurricane could theoretically happen, but if the weather conditions aren't there, then we're not having a hurricane.
01:51:54.480The weather conditions for a Civil War exist right now, but I would call it, like, a tropical depression in the Atlantic.
01:52:38.240He said, you will not say that there's a Civil War until you see it, which is, yes.
01:52:43.480But what I was saying, if you're looking at conditions, there would have to be mass or there would have to be extreme economic poverty or extreme economic conditions that are making people starve.
01:52:56.840Second is that you're seeing at least some type of low-level violence, the modern equivalent of bleeding cans that's already happening, or something, and that there's a weak state and it's—
01:53:34.860I'm just saying this is one of the conditions.
01:53:36.860Well, he just said—he said the American Civil War—
01:53:38.440No, and yeah, no, it's actually absolutely true that we didn't have the type of poverty.
01:53:41.720So that would not be a prerequisite for Civil War.
01:53:43.040We definitely had more poverty at that time, but in comparison to the rest of the world, no, we had much greater abundance.
01:53:50.840So that's not a prerequisite then, because civil wars have happened without extreme poverty.
01:53:53.720It's a—let me go over the other conditions.
01:53:57.120Okay, but one thing is definitely a weak state, or if you're wanting to fight against—if we had the—if the state would have to significantly weaken from what it is right now to have a civil war at this point, because the state is way too—
01:54:11.100What was the second—so the first point is in contest.
01:54:14.780Second point is that you're having low levels of violence either between non-state actors in the state or between non-state actors that spills out of control that the state can't control, which would also require a weakened state.
01:54:27.600Could you describe a threshold of violence that is quantifiable so that we could say yes or no to this point?
01:54:34.440Like, is there a certain number of deaths?
01:54:35.200You would have levels of violence that were dozens are dying, and it's—like, people are shooting each other.
01:54:42.160Like, I would even say if, like, the conditions of Weimar Germany in, like, 1932, where they were—where the communists and the Nazis were getting into gun battles, you were—you—and there was also the fear that they would have to deploy the military to stifle it, you definitely had the civil war conditions.
01:54:57.140So, Bleeding Kansas, you said, correct?
01:54:59.720It would be a Bleeding Kansas-like event where two sides are using lethal force against each other.
01:55:04.660Do you know what the historical academic term for what Bleeding Kansas was?
01:55:11.260No. Civil strife. It is—in academia—you don't have to agree with academia—Bleeding Kansas is called civil strife. The civil rights movement was also called civil strife.
01:55:22.060Civil strife is the precursor to civil war. And there is an academic threshold by which they believe civil strife has begun.
01:55:29.700Do you think civil strife is upon us now?
01:55:32.800Don't ask me. According to academics, the answer is yes.
01:55:35.300Well, what are the standards that are used?
01:55:36.920Seven deaths—70 deaths per year related to political causes.
01:55:40.720The 70 deaths that they would say are these maniacs who go to, like, a Dollar General and shoot people.
01:55:47.380A lot of the academic standards that they have, the rules, you would have to agree that a lot of the stupid shootings of these morons that they claim is white supremacist violence when it's just some maniac doing what is the equivalent to a school shooting is going to a Dollar General and saying it's political violence.
01:56:01.960I don't trust their standard for what claims is political violence.
01:56:05.820I think the—when they say it's like white supremacy, clearly that's an absurdity because it describes nothing.
01:56:11.560But when Rudyard mentions that there are young white men with no upward mobility who have become sexually frustrated and otherwise, I guess, dejected, they decide to act out violence.
01:56:28.820I mean, what—besides, like, one every, like, year going on a school shooting or of some sort, what other acts of violence that they're committing?
01:56:57.980It was two sides organizing militias to fight and kill each other in a territory to gain political control.
01:57:04.020Towards the end of it, like in the beginning, John Brown just went and killed people.
01:57:07.480Yeah, and they were organizing militias.
01:57:10.080And also they had the border roofians that Missouri was sending over to kill abolitionist settlers.
01:57:15.020I mean, and to take political control.
01:57:17.640But I'm just saying, what conditions do you have of civil strife besides that there's these academics looking at random mass shootings that some maniac claims that there's a political motivation for as a sign that there's civil strife?
01:57:32.280By all means, I accept you argue their definition is ill-fitted.
01:58:01.820I know we have a little bit of a time, but all the prerequisites.
01:58:04.340These are not all absolutely required, as I need to go back and say.
01:58:08.680But it's also you have to have elite institutions that are hostile to each other and are fighting for political power in a way that is like English Civil War between Parliament and the monarch, or even the Spanish Civil War between the civil government and the old forces that favored the more right-wing form of governance they had before.
01:58:26.600Or you would have to have hostile elite forces that are willing to fight and kill each other, which now with the United States, if you look at the institutions, pretty much most of them are committed to some form of unity, even with the GOP.
01:58:38.360Trump might not be on the same platform with the rest of the GOP, but the GOP, the Democrats, the military, the police, every important institution in America would agree on unity, even state governors.
01:58:54.500Well, we do have a time constraint here.
01:58:57.500So I don't know if, Rudyard, you want to add any final thoughts before we wrap up and some shout-outs.
01:59:34.940I'm going to just wrap by saying, hey, look, man, I'm the one who talks about the potentiality of civil war quite a bit, but I do not agree with Rudyard.
01:59:41.380I cannot see a thousand deaths by April.
01:59:44.280That would be a persistent four-month summer of love at the start of the County Electoral College.
01:59:59.860I'm hoping that we see with this election, it's looking already 11 days out.
02:00:03.680I hope it's true with the Republicans already leading in some swings.
02:00:06.680I think North Carolina absentee ballot returns are showing Republicans winning.
02:00:09.380I'm hoping that we get a popular vote victory for Trump of a substantial portion, a couple percentage points, an Electoral College victory, which is an overt rebuke of leftist ideology in this country that results in many apathetic normal people becoming less tolerant out of a fear of being on the wrong side of history.
02:00:26.060So what ends up happening then is Trump wins.
02:00:32.840The weird woke ideologies are pushed out of media, as we've already seen.
02:00:35.620And then there is no need for conflict.
02:00:37.000And we exit this period, same as any other period of tumult with no real violence.
02:00:41.780And then four years from now, the debate between Democrats and Republicans would be much more moderate because Democrats will be forced closer to the center.