The Culture War - Tim Pool - Will The 2024 Election Start A CIVIL WAR

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00:01:28.420 This is an article that came out from the Washington Examiner about how this survival

00:01:33.100 camp network is calling in its members, those who are in areas of high volatility, to come to the camp

00:01:39.980 for the week of the election because things may get absolutely crazy. Right now, in the national

00:01:46.540 aggregate polling, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied. I don't think that means this country is

00:01:51.620 actually divided. I think if Kamala Harris is up three to five points, it might show a division. 1.00

00:01:56.860 I think a tie actually indicates with Democrat bias and the margin of error that Trump is probably

00:02:01.180 winning. But it's still you don't need a 50-50 split for there for there to be a civil war or major

00:02:06.460 conflict. In fact, it could be even as small as only a couple percentage points of people who are

00:02:10.460 willing to get violent, and that's pretty worrisome. But we're going to talk about all of it. We've got

00:02:14.640 a couple great guests today on The Culture War. We've got Rudyard Lynch back. Thank you so much for

00:02:19.980 having me, especially so soon. Pull that mic back up. Thanks so much for having me, especially so soon.

00:02:26.200 Right on. And do you want to just introduce yourself? You have a YouTube channel.

00:02:29.640 As I said before, I am a 23-year-old with no credentials who bets against God. And I run the YouTube

00:02:35.900 channel, What If Altist, which talks about history, anthropology, philosophy, that sort of thing.

00:02:42.420 And we have close to 700,000 subscribers. And the thing I'm most known for is my prediction of a

00:02:51.300 thousand deaths by April, where I think America will have a civil war or revolution within the next

00:02:56.840 year. Wow. That's really soon. We got Scott Greer hanging out. What's up? Who are you? Good to be here.

00:03:02.420 Yeah. And so my story, I'm a highly respected author and podcaster. I host a podcast called

00:03:09.380 Highly Respected, and I have a sub stack, Highly Respected, and that's at highly-respected.com.

00:03:16.040 I'm also author of No Campus for White Men that came out a long time ago, seven years ago.

00:03:21.440 Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I just love that you're the 23-year-old with no credentials,

00:03:25.240 and you're the highly respected author and podcaster.

00:03:27.080 Real credentials here, I guess. So, okay, I'll throw it to you, Scott, first. A thousand deaths

00:03:34.640 by April with a civil war coming in one year. Is this man insane? Well, who's doing the killing 0.97

00:03:40.360 and who's doing the dying? That would be my question, is who are the thousand people being

00:03:44.680 killed and who's killing them? Is it the government killing them? Is it who's rising up? Is it the left

00:03:49.620 or the right? I don't think there is going to be that type of violence, even if you compare this to

00:03:53.780 some like 2020. We had a whole summer of unrest where every city in the country, people were

00:04:00.980 burning down buildings, cops nowhere to be found. There's a high level of violence and insecurity

00:04:07.460 and turmoil, all dealing with COVID lockdowns, BLM, everything going along with that. People were

00:04:14.080 really worked up in 2020. If you see it now in 2024, either from the right, you know, Trump has been

00:04:23.240 indicted and convicted with not that many protests. People are still supporting him, but they don't feel

00:04:29.040 like taking it to the streets. And it's the same with the left. The left doesn't have the type of

00:04:33.960 aggressive, violent demonstrations that they were having in 2020 or even during the Trump years.

00:04:39.320 So I don't really see the thousand deaths happening unless the economy completely craters.

00:04:48.020 It's something worse than the great recession. Um, even if it's a very close election, I don't think

00:04:54.480 we're going to see stop the steel again. It might be stop the steel to the direct to video version.

00:04:59.740 Uh, but even then, I don't know what that would look like, uh, with the left. I don't even think

00:05:04.520 there was going to be that large of the women's marches. They don't seem as activated right now. 0.89

00:05:09.660 They've, they're even more resigned that Trump is going to win. There's this awareness that there's

00:05:15.560 a good chance he's going in. I think even among a lot of liberals, their gut instinct is saying Trump's

00:05:20.480 going to win. Well, in 2016, they were so outraged and took to the streets because they're like,

00:05:24.720 there's no way this could have ever happened. And then it happened and they were, they lost their

00:05:29.620 minds. So, um, but you may explain who who's doing the killing and who's doing the dying here.

00:05:35.500 And that might, uh, explain the situation. It's hard for me nowhere to start because the lore

00:05:41.140 I've established around this is so extensive. I've made like six hours of content, uh, just on the

00:05:47.260 one civil war topic. Um, but I operate off probabilistic assessments. And so if you look at,

00:05:55.920 let's say dominoes or cards or anything, uh, or poker, anything like that, you have probabilistic

00:06:02.640 assessments up to a certain range and then you don't know the individual events. And that's how

00:06:09.100 I feel about civil war, where it's one of those things where I know that there's something's going

00:06:16.920 to happen and I'm not entirely clear what exact form it will take. And it's highly dependent upon

00:06:22.540 the individual context. And I'm going to use world war one. And as an example, there were about 15

00:06:28.540 different places where world war one nearly started before world war one. It was a war that

00:06:32.460 building up for decades and you happen to get the Archduke Franz Ferdinand and that set up world war

00:06:40.080 one in a way that didn't have to happen where Britain might not have been involved in the war.

00:06:44.580 America might not have been involved. Hell, there's plenty of timelines where Austria and France

00:06:50.280 were allies against Germany and Russia. So that's how I feel about this, where I look at the

00:06:55.540 incentive. I think the right and the left have to have a war. Uh, and on the last show I was on here,

00:07:01.060 we talked about, you, you mean at like a philosophical level, the, the, the divergence

00:07:06.180 between the left and the right precipitates some kind of conflict. Um, you said, you said they,

00:07:11.380 they have to have some kind of war. What I meant by that is that the forces of history have built up

00:07:17.220 to the level where it's the only way to solve the equation, where we're at the point where no

00:07:22.440 other, we don't have any other mechanism to solve the underlying issues going on except war.

00:07:28.000 Because you look at, and I think there's like 10 issues killing America between wages being too low,

00:07:34.480 the healthcare system, uh, aging, there's a bunch of these and Congress isn't going to solve them.

00:07:41.160 And so issues will gradually pile up until you have a war. And I've assessed, I used to have a

00:07:50.060 wider timeframe, but I'm making the bet that it's going to start this year for a variety of reasons.

00:07:54.580 And I'm open to being wrong. Uh, I make these bets. So, you know, I'm not, uh, just a charlatan

00:08:01.220 making stuff up, but I, I, I think it's going to start this year. I mean, we've got

00:08:06.820 a month and a half, not even, we're, we're, we're about to enter November. So two months

00:08:13.120 do you think within this? Yeah. Something's going to kick off. I mean, there, there, there are

00:08:19.200 potentialities. Uh, look, the first thing you always got to check is your normalcy bias and

00:08:23.600 your optimism bias. Yes. No one saw COVID lockdowns coming. That was outside of the minds of possibility.

00:08:29.880 When I talked to Eric Prince about countries that have collapsed. And I said, I asked him, you know,

00:08:35.560 in your experience with countries that have been these, these states of turmoil, revolution,

00:08:39.460 civil war, what do you see happening in the United States? He said, the one thing you can tell me is

00:08:43.780 that no one sees it coming. Everybody he's worked with has been in these countries. One day,

00:08:48.940 everything's normal. The next day, the internet doesn't work. The power is out and people are

00:08:52.520 fighting. So how do you actually know when that flashpoint is going to be? Maybe it is, uh, November

00:09:00.880 6th. I wonder, you know, we're, we're looking at the national polls and I'll actually, let me,

00:09:05.340 let me pull these up for you real quick. So this is the national aggregate from yesterday. And we

00:09:09.800 covered this with Kamala Harris in aggregate up nationally, 0.2, which is a statistical tie.

00:09:16.980 As of today, real clear polling has a literal tie between Harris and Trump by aggregating all of the

00:09:23.580 existing polls over the past two weeks. A tie would indicate a Trump victory because the polls have

00:09:29.340 historically, uh, favored Democrats by about three to five points. And in the battleground states,

00:09:34.140 four to seven, and I'm going back to 2016. Those are not my numbers. That is not my opinion. That

00:09:38.500 is literally what happened. And if we extrapolate that and apply to today, Donald Trump may actually

00:09:42.560 win the popular vote by a minimum of three points. Who knows? Who knows? Polls change and things change.

00:09:48.140 It's just, we're looking at the past to try and predict the future. What happens? You know,

00:09:53.020 everybody's predicting. We're not going to know the results until 13 days later or 10 days later

00:09:57.140 because of mail-in voting. But what if Trump wins so handily in early voting and absentee voting

00:10:03.520 that on election day, the big networks say there is no point in waiting any longer for the existing

00:10:09.860 mail-in votes. We know how many of there are, and they will not change the outcome.

00:10:13.820 Could that on November 6 trigger a leftist reaction? You don't, uh, let me, let me, let me try and

00:10:20.520 describe it like this. If I were to say right now that tomorrow there will be a 1,000 acre fire wiping

00:10:27.040 out large portions of Appalachia, you'd be like, what? Is that great? Yeah, a guy may take a, a guy

00:10:34.200 may be driving a truck with a chain dangling off the back, and it, he makes a sharp turn, whips, snaps

00:10:39.520 the ground, igniting some tinder, and that tiny little fire that no one saw coming explodes into a wildfire

00:10:47.160 where fire's spreading 70 miles an hour across the top of these trees. That is a potentiality,

00:10:52.400 but does that mean it's a high probability? I don't think there's a high probability of wildfire

00:10:56.600 starting, but when they do, how do you stop them? And I suppose what I'm trying to say is to, to,

00:11:00.820 to say there's going to be this big grandiose eruption of fire all across California, people are

00:11:05.500 going to be like, well, that's, that's a doomsday scenario. Yeah, but it could really just start from

00:11:09.020 someone flicking a cigarette. Yes. The calculation I make, and this is one of the weird logical issues in our

00:11:17.120 society is that a civil war will happen when the civil war is the rational calculation for the

00:11:22.900 players involved. And this is one of the horrible things we don't want to realize, but war is normally

00:11:27.360 a completely rational calculation. It's, I can probabilistically assess that my side will beat

00:11:33.240 your side. We can take your stuff. And I believe the 2024 election is going to set things off because

00:11:38.860 for both sides, they've entered into a position of fundamental weakness where they have an incentive to

00:11:44.880 start a war because it's safer rather than continuing with the peace because peace is often more

00:11:50.160 dangerous than war. And so for the right and the left, they've pushed their hands too far and now

00:11:56.200 they need to pull their hands back because they can't survive as things go on. For the right,

00:12:03.240 it's the money printing and the immigration. And those are two things that people have no comprehension

00:12:08.320 how big they are. For money printing, we've added $900 billion to the deficit just since July.

00:12:15.600 And we don't understand how big, $900 billion. You mean? Yeah, yeah. And that's bigger than a lot

00:12:22.920 of countries in the world. I'm sure someone can look up in the comments and say that's the economy of

00:12:27.160 like, I don't know, some European country. And so that's the first thing. It took us all of American

00:12:33.980 history to reach the amount of debt we had in 2014. And we've doubled it in the decades since.

00:12:39.220 And the money printing under Biden, it can't go on. It's just killing the economy. And I don't

00:12:43.800 believe the official numbers. I think they're being doctored. I think things are way worse.

00:12:47.940 And so money printing is one. Another four years of Biden will destroy society.

00:12:54.500 And then immigration. We've had 15 million illegal immigrants during the Biden administration.

00:12:59.520 That's adding a Pennsylvania to the country. And it's a Pennsylvania overnight without the centuries

00:13:05.240 it took to build up the state. And so four years Biden, 15 million more illegal immigrants. And Elon

00:13:12.360 Musk has done a good job talking about this. I think I really admire Elon Musk's latest stand.

00:13:18.180 And basically, if the Democrats can keep flooding illegals in, they can win a bunch of states if 0.99

00:13:24.000 the illegals can vote. So they don't need to vote. What do you mean?

00:13:27.480 Illegal immigrants don't need to vote for Democrats to win control of, win the electoral vote and win

00:13:33.540 the presidency and the federal government. So this is actually a big mistake Republicans have made for

00:13:38.560 a very long time in saying that the Democrats are bringing in illegal immigrants so they can vote and

00:13:42.120 vote for Democrats. No, they're not. They're bringing in illegal immigrants so the census will count them 1.00

00:13:45.920 and give them more congressional seats and more electoral college votes. California is estimated to have

00:13:50.940 at minimum in the last cycle one extra vote. Yeah. However, if you actually calculate the total

00:13:57.420 illegal immigrant population of California, they may have as many as 10 or 13 extra illegal votes.

00:14:03.880 Let me clarify this. So if you have a district, a congressional district, which is 775,000 people,

00:14:11.040 but 200,000 are non-citizens. They can't vote, but they do give that seat. You would do the math.

00:14:17.260 Democrats can then invite in non-citizens, spread them out in such a way that they create 0.95

00:14:21.820 extra congressional districts. Yes. Then when it comes to, so this is what's funny about the,

00:14:26.240 the national popular vote and the national popular vote initiatives. It's not completely true. We saw

00:14:32.560 Adam Kinzinger, everyone's roasting him because he said we should get rid of electoral college and go

00:14:35.660 to a popular, a popular vote, but a popular vote may actually favor Republicans. California has got

00:14:40.500 10 million Republicans, many of whom are demoralized and feel like, I think they end up getting about 6

00:14:45.380 million votes or whatever. If, if it was a national popular vote, you, you may see blue state Republicans

00:14:51.100 voting and it could shift things in a way people don't predict. So right now the numbers are that

00:14:57.300 there are more blue state Republicans than there are red state Democrats. Red states tend to be

00:15:01.680 sparsely populated. There's not that many Democrats in the red states relative to how many Republicans

00:15:05.300 are in blue states. If you go national popular vote and those Republicans vote combined with the

00:15:10.080 rural states, it may turn this country deep red. But anyway, I digress. So when we look at the 0.93

00:15:14.440 electoral college, you have to factor in, uh, that Democrats likely are getting five extra

00:15:19.640 electoral college votes by having non-citizens spread out through their, through their states,

00:15:23.600 which is why Chicago is getting flooded. New York is getting flooded. California is getting flooded.

00:15:27.760 It's a long game because the census is every 10 years, but you also have to consider at the federal

00:15:32.000 electoral, uh, the federal congressional level. This means that Democrats have extra members of

00:15:37.740 Congress voting. So when you say, Rudyard, that the only, that, that, you know, civil war will start

00:15:42.580 when it becomes the rational decision of either side. We are, I, I would agree we're at a point

00:15:48.740 where it is terrifying, but you may actually see people make that argument that has become rational

00:15:54.220 for them to engage in some kind of, and, and, and people, I want to, I want to make sure I clarify

00:15:58.140 this when I say civil war. It's not necessarily going to be a stand, like it is, it is not a standing

00:16:04.660 army, you know, ordering their troops to go march on another state. That's ridiculous. This is people 0.95

00:16:08.580 who watch too much, too many movies. It could literally just be a state suing another state

00:16:13.360 at the Supreme court saying, invalidate those votes because these are, are, are built upon

00:16:18.440 non-citizens who are influencing our government. Then you get a federal law. Let's say a federal 0.99

00:16:23.440 law passes narrow margins. And then you get a few red States arguing that due to the inclusion of 0.50

00:16:29.580 non-citizens in the congressional apportionment, Democrats by winning by one vote in Congress to

00:16:34.440 pass a law that say would, would encroach on gun rights or free speech rights, violating the

00:16:39.380 constitution. And then a Biden or, or Harris signs the bill. They say, no, we refuse to enforce this

00:16:46.180 under this ruling. It goes to the Supreme court, which of course is conservative. They rule in favor

00:16:52.080 of the, of the red state. The Democrats then say something like, you see, this is Trump stacked court

00:16:57.540 and they're now overturning Congress and the president. We can't allow this. And you get two sides

00:17:02.380 arguing that they are morally justified in their use of force to whatever degree that is. And then

00:17:07.160 it could be starting very simply. Texas says we will not abide by this national restriction or

00:17:13.460 whatever. Texas, as we already saw with illegal immigration, then starts making moves to remove

00:17:18.700 illegal. Let's say the issue is illegal immigration. Texas was already in, in conflict with the federal

00:17:25.340 government on the border, setting up razor wire and barring the feds from jurisdiction. They claimed

00:17:30.640 they had a right to this. This is how things like this could start where it's what you're,

00:17:36.700 you're it's two cars speeding towards each other and neither side has, has, has any means of resolving

00:17:41.720 this with a situation like Texas, which was scary. And this is only in the past year. Alaska is talking

00:17:47.940 about sending down troops to aid the feds. Then you had a handful of States, even Florida, sending

00:17:53.140 national guard and state guard to go defend Texas and Texas assertion of a right over their border.

00:17:58.100 You had the Supreme court involved when it comes to, when it comes to something like this,

00:18:03.260 we are looking at dry tinder on the forest floor. And then you get CBP and federal agents

00:18:09.740 demanding to be given access to the border. They claim jurisdiction over while the state is saying

00:18:14.760 no. And we're laying razor wire concertina wire. And then all it takes is one accident. Somebody

00:18:21.660 not even flicking a cigarette, but a chain. This is actually a story that started one of the fires.

00:18:26.260 A guy apparently had a chain hanging from the back of his pickup truck. And as he was dragging it,

00:18:30.580 it was bouncing off the ground and sparking. And it lit tinder. There was no intention.

00:18:34.160 So let's say something happens where in the, it's late at night, it's two in the morning.

00:18:38.680 And the feds say, look, this is our jurisdiction. We're going to do a patrol national state guard or

00:18:43.840 national guard are down there. And they see some guys walking and they're wearing polos and khakis or

00:18:47.760 something. They don't know that they're supposed to be there. They're not in direct communication.

00:18:50.980 Something happens and a bang goes off. Maybe it's a Mexican army or a cartel member opens fire or

00:18:55.940 something. These guys don't know what's happening. So they draw their weapons. Both sides see two,

00:19:00.440 two groups drawing weapons on each other with guns going off. They take cover. Somebody shoots. It

00:19:05.100 could, could perhaps even be a cartel member intentionally trying to spark conflict, but a

00:19:09.440 national guard member or a federal officer gets shot and killed. Then a guy who that's his best 0.97

00:19:15.220 friend who's been working with for 10 years sees it happen and just starts opening fire. And this

00:19:21.080 is, this is where you get something nobody expects. It spirals out of control. Texas says federal agents

00:19:27.520 open fire on our guards and the feds say they shot my friend. They were shooting at us. Does that resolve

00:19:34.260 simply with everybody calm down? We don't want to go this route. Or is it an escalation of tensions

00:19:40.000 where they say the feds come in and say, we're going to start arresting national guard. Everyone

00:19:44.240 involved, you turn their names over. Now the state says, we will not turn over the name of our

00:19:48.620 guardsmen who are legally authorized to use these weapons. When you were shooting at us,

00:19:52.140 the state then says, we demand the feds withdraw and you turn over the men who shot our guys.

00:19:56.920 Both say, no, do they back away? We have no idea. We have no idea. Now I would say that seems like a

00:20:03.300 one in a million or a one in a hundred million, who knows, but you can imagine a scenario like that

00:20:08.340 being dangerously close when the only difference in that story that I just told and what literally

00:20:16.260 happened is that the feds ultimately said, we're going to, we're going to, we're going to back down.

00:20:20.560 Everyone's going to chill out. But imagine if an accident occurred, the flicking of a cigarette,

00:20:24.420 the sparking of a chain, that wildfire grows rapidly and you can't control it. How about the

00:20:29.000 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand? One guy dying, igniting World War I. But I would say they

00:20:34.540 would calm down in that situation. Even when it looked at the situation with Texas last year with

00:20:38.820 the border, or I think it was even earlier this year with the, with the wire fence, the Supreme

00:20:43.520 Court didn't order Texas to remove it. It simply said the feds now had the power to remove it. And I

00:20:50.460 think the Texas made it annoying to remove it, but they were able to remove it eventually. So Texas

00:20:58.020 would not go up to that level to spark lethal violence. And even when they send state guard down

00:21:03.540 there and national guard and state law enforcement, they're told you can't really use your weapons.

00:21:09.660 You can just only monitor the situation. No, they were actually, actually, they were told they could

00:21:16.140 use their weapons in defense and they actually fired across the border. Only in defense. And even in

00:21:20.320 that, even the situation at the night, but they're not going, first off, I don't even think of nighttime

00:21:25.720 patrols are doing that many nighttime patrols. And anyway, in any case of that situation happened,

00:21:29.900 the state would take most of the blame, even nationally. And my, that, which would be bad

00:21:35.280 for Texas. And I would support Texas in this regard, but hope if Trump is the winner, we no

00:21:40.900 longer have to worry about this situation because Texas is going to back federal immigration

00:21:45.200 enforcement with Trump being the person running it.

00:21:49.020 Then, then let's, uh, uh, let's talk about another scenario. The first thing I want to respond

00:21:52.820 to that with is no one thought the first civil war was going to happen. Fort Sumter wasn't even

00:21:57.920 considered the start of the civil war. The battle of Fort Sumter, only one person died. It was an

00:22:01.880 accident. After that battle happened, the history books have declared the civil war hath begun,

00:22:07.220 except the people of the United States still didn't believe it. And so when it came to the

00:22:11.540 first battle of bull run, they were picnicking and they're like, there's no civil war. Nothing's

00:22:15.260 going to happen. And then there was a massacre with like, there's this famous drawing of the

00:22:18.380 mayor frantically running. It was a, it's a drawing because there's no photos. And then people

00:22:23.560 realized we are in a, in fact, even at that point, they still didn't call it the civil war.

00:22:27.820 It wasn't until a couple of years later, it started being called a civil war. It was called

00:22:31.500 a rebellion or, or, or, or war between States or something like this. So in the instance of

00:22:37.400 something happening in Texas, it may be an accident that no one wants to take responsibility

00:22:42.500 for. But even then, if there's one accidental death, the history of books may say that was the

00:22:47.440 moment things ignited. Even if we here in the weeds don't, don't see it as such. But anyway,

00:22:52.940 I digress. We'll understand another scenario. Let's say you're completely correct. California.

00:22:58.200 Donald Trump is going to implement massive immigration reforms and deportations. He says

00:23:02.320 he wants to use local police and military. Now when I asked him, he said local police. Now he's

00:23:06.680 saying we would use military to a certain degree. What do you think California does? If Donald Trump

00:23:11.460 sends in federal authorities to start going door to door, not just ice, but expanding ice and ordering

00:23:16.940 local police and sheriffs and national guard, I think there's a possibility that it starts here.

00:23:22.280 Trump says, we're deporting the illegal immigrants. They're not allowed to be here. They need to be 1.00

00:23:26.300 here legally. And so he sends an ice. California blocks him. Trump says, we need the law of the

00:23:33.800 federal government to be enforced. And as such, I am invoking my right to direct the national guard of

00:23:40.500 California, which the law states, if the law is, the federal law states that if law is not being

00:23:45.700 enforced, the federal government can assume command of the national guard to enforce the law.

00:23:50.360 So then he says to the California national guard, you will go to these homes. You will

00:23:55.340 take these illegal immigrants and load them into buses, get them on planes and send them back to 1.00

00:24:00.340 their home countries and processing centers. What if California says no? And then California,

00:24:04.980 the governor says to the national guard, do not obey those orders from the federal government.

00:24:08.640 You are California national guard. You will not obey Donald Trump's fascist Nazi takeover.

00:24:13.280 Is that a possibility?

00:24:14.080 I mean, it is a possibility, but we already had a situation like this play out in the 60s

00:24:18.440 over integration. And when the national guard was federalized, the government backed down. And I

00:24:24.780 think they would do the same here. There's too much respect for federal authority. The state,

00:24:29.940 even the national state, even compared to the 1860s is far stronger. And even in that scenario where

00:24:35.380 you're talking about the civil war, South Carolina had already seceded. So had several other states.

00:24:40.000 And when they, this was a foreign country firing on the United States at that point. 1.00

00:24:44.980 And everyone, Fort Sumter was in South Carolina. So this wasn't, it was, it was a United States

00:24:52.280 military installation. So, and South Carolina was no longer in the U.S. Or it declared it was no

00:24:57.880 longer in the U.S.

00:24:58.320 Not according to the union.

00:24:59.880 But it had declared itself. And it was another, it was another entity firing on the federal government,

00:25:05.660 on the U.S.

00:25:06.520 According to the union and the federal troops, it was a state level entity attacking the federal

00:25:10.860 authorities as one country.

00:25:12.420 But it had already seceded.

00:25:13.940 No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

00:25:14.580 South Carolina already saw itself as a separate country.

00:25:16.500 But to the union, there was no such secession.

00:25:20.040 But that marked the secession.

00:25:21.620 No, it didn't. The union never viewed the southern states as having left the United States.

00:25:26.440 They were fighting to bring them back, but that brought them more.

00:25:28.640 No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. They did not view them as separate.

00:25:32.180 Tim is objectively correct here.

00:25:33.740 The union never looked at South Carolina.

00:25:36.600 The union never saw them, but as actual practice, they were outside of it.

00:25:41.380 But they were fighting to restore them to the union and bring them back into fully in line

00:25:46.140 with the rest of the union.

00:25:46.980 There's an important.

00:25:47.500 The war, and everyone knew that war was a strong possibility, and they were trying to

00:25:52.340 avoid a force.

00:25:53.080 No, no, this is completely incorrect.

00:25:55.140 Let me interject.

00:25:56.120 No, nobody knew.

00:25:57.280 No one saw that the war was going to happen when they started seceding.

00:25:59.860 That's why they were picnicking at Bull Run.

00:26:02.060 They were picnicking because they thought there would only be one battle, and they weren't

00:26:05.960 aware.

00:26:06.240 That's not true.

00:26:06.740 Yes, it was.

00:26:08.020 They were not.

00:26:08.920 They thought that war, when the South started seceding, there was this desire to see what

00:26:17.380 would happen.

00:26:18.080 And they were hoping that the South would come back to its senses, that even the seceded

00:26:22.000 states, that they would make these compromises, and that they would come back and avoid war.

00:26:25.760 But once Fort Sopter happened, and both sides are raising armies, and then sending them to

00:26:31.060 Manassas.

00:26:31.600 They were not raising armies.

00:26:32.880 That is incorrect.

00:26:33.680 The South was absolutely raising armies.

00:26:36.200 They were using their state militias and using that as Confederate.

00:26:39.380 Okay, we got to pause.

00:26:40.400 That's not true.

00:26:41.720 Lincoln did not mobilize until after Bull Run, and only seven states had seceded in the

00:26:45.960 first place.

00:26:46.660 It was after Bull Run, the mobilization that Lincoln tried to implement, that sparked four 0.50

00:26:50.400 more states to secede.

00:26:51.200 No, it was Fort Sopter prompted the four other states to leave.

00:26:55.040 You can look this up.

00:26:55.900 No, it was the four other states.

00:26:56.920 Right.

00:26:57.180 Maybe you're correct.

00:26:57.760 Fort Sopter was that.

00:26:58.900 And Fort Sopter, then they began raising troops.

00:27:01.080 Yeah, I believe you're correct.

00:27:01.700 I stand correct.

00:27:02.780 I think you're right.

00:27:03.240 I think the draft and conscription, I'm pretty sure that happens after Fort Sopter, but that

00:27:08.380 could have also been.

00:27:09.220 What's the point of contention?

00:27:09.340 But they were utilizing all, both of these, both sides were utilizing the state militias and

00:27:14.960 what troops they could find, and deploying them out in the battlefield.

00:27:18.160 I stand corrected.

00:27:18.700 You are correct.

00:27:19.080 It was three days after Fort Sopter, Lincoln mobilized to send troops, prompting the secession.

00:27:24.380 What do you guys, what's your point of contention here?

00:27:27.060 I guess we're arguing over the original Civil War, so we should go into the future.

00:27:31.440 The point is that people did not think a war had begun even after Fort Sopter.

00:27:37.840 Yeah, Tim's right here.

00:27:39.080 I basically completely agree with the things Tim said.

00:27:42.620 But I was wrong about-

00:27:43.720 What do you mean that a war hadn't begun?

00:27:45.500 They, I mean, violence had erupted.

00:27:47.860 Nobody died.

00:27:48.280 People were massively coping.

00:27:49.820 They were firing cannons.

00:27:51.580 People could easily die.

00:27:53.140 It's not like they're just firing blanks at each other or having a paintball match.

00:27:56.780 We have a tremendous amount of primary sources from this time period, and Tim is right, where

00:28:00.940 people didn't think the war was happening until way past the point they were already in it.

00:28:06.000 And there was-

00:28:06.580 Well, they didn't think it was going to be a long war.

00:28:08.080 They thought that one battle would solve the whole matter.

00:28:10.940 But they didn't even call it the Civil War for a couple years.

00:28:14.180 Yeah, but it was a war.

00:28:16.100 And it was by the end of 1861, several people had died, and everyone knew that this was a war.

00:28:21.780 So if you look at the Democrat platform and then you look at the various political politicians, the various positions the politicians had, there was tremendous coping about the war until pretty far in, where people would say, oh, my God, the South's going to back down.

00:28:37.240 It's all the things you just said, the South's just doing this for attention, the South, this isn't a real conflict, this is just a constitutional crisis, and then it kept spiraling and spiraling and spiraling. 0.98

00:28:47.100 That's true, but Fort Sumter was the break that's saying, oh, shit, this is- 0.93

00:28:50.920 I'm unclear how this relates to the point we're trying to convey, though.

00:28:54.120 I was going to say that I agreed with Tim's point that you have gasoline, and then there's a match, and it's unclear what the match is going to be, but there always has to be a match.

00:29:05.480 But the match can be innocuous.

00:29:07.400 Exactly.

00:29:07.600 It can be such a small and mundane thing that under normal circumstances doesn't matter.

00:29:12.380 Yes.

00:29:12.540 Let's say you have a rainy fall, and a guy starts chucking M-80s and is flamethrowering all across California.

00:29:20.780 No wildfire can start, but you get a dry summer, and someone can accidentally, you know, maybe they're driving their car and they get a flat tire, their tire rips off, and then it scrapes on the ground, sparking, the whole thing goes up.

00:29:33.660 I'm laughing because the first thought that came into my mind is Mr. Beast making a video, I started the California wildfire.

00:29:41.680 I started the Civil War in California, it could maybe be his next video.

00:29:45.720 But even on that, I mean, we did, with the conflict between federal and state authority, we did have that in the 50s and 60s over integration, and the federal authority won out.

00:29:54.760 And even the states could call upon mobs of violent young men to side with them, even in the case of Ole Miss in 62 when they were trying to integrate it.

00:30:04.400 And at Little Rock, they had not just the National Guard and state police, they also had these mobs.

00:30:10.620 And I don't think California would have, you know, the type of imposing mobs they had in Ole Miss and Little Rock aren't going to be the middle-aged cat ladies who are going to come out to prevent people from enforcing a federal immigration law. 1.00

00:30:25.180 So we'll pause here, and I'll say, this is, it's interesting to entertain the similarities between 1860, and technically you'd go back through Bleeding Kansas, and you'd even go back to 1820 when they were already discussing Civil War.

00:30:36.600 In fact, there was already contention during the sign of the Declaration of Independence over slavery.

00:30:40.980 You look at that, and what you have is sovereign states with a weak federal union, and when they decided the federal union was going to go up against the states, what was stronger, that is not typical of any civil war ever.

00:30:51.660 That is the United States as sovereign states effectively in a large-scale war, which is kind of like, more like Europe than anything else.

00:30:58.900 If you take a look at Spain or Russia, a tiny, tiny fraction in key areas uses violence to seize control from a rather apathetic general population that doesn't want to be involved.

00:31:10.360 And so what we see here is, it may not be, it may be that it's our bias of 1861 that we say maybe the feds will come into Texas, maybe Trump will try and enforce a mass immigration thing.

00:31:21.520 Then a state like, we saw this in 2020 when Democrats ran a war game where they actually entertained West Coast states seceding from the union if Donald Trump were to have won in 2020.

00:31:31.880 That was Boston Globe reporting.

00:31:33.420 They literally got, like, John Podesta was hanging out with these other big uniparty neolibs and neocons being like, okay, if Trump wins, we're going to need Oregon, Washington, California to secede from the union unless Donald Trump guarantees constitutional reforms and things like this.

00:31:47.480 So that conversation was happening, and it's kind of crazy, but I think it's largely due to our biases that we think that's how things would play out.

00:31:53.660 I think it's entirely possible that what we end up seeing is more like Chaz Chop level times 10 times 100.

00:31:58.800 So we actually had a period in this country where for a few months in the Pacific Northwest, there were autonomous zones set up to the point where they had armed guards.

00:32:07.100 They had taken over a police department, kicked out the local police force, surrounded that, and were in control for a couple of months and actually murdered people, actually killed people.

00:32:16.560 Then you have the Atlanta Autonomous Zone.

00:32:18.800 Same thing.

00:32:19.340 They torched a Wendy's, took it over.

00:32:20.760 People were killed there.

00:32:21.900 There were shootings.

00:32:23.020 I know the Wendy's Autonomous Zone is – but, you know, it's funny is –

00:32:26.200 Hell, Wendy's.

00:32:27.100 It seems crazy to us, but this would be like saying – I don't know.

00:32:31.140 People may get offended by this, but the Alamo, right?

00:32:33.440 A singular building that's seeming, you know, is taken over.

00:32:36.320 The Wendy's is a chain of fast food.

00:32:37.580 Remember the Wendy's.

00:32:39.280 Now, here's the important thing real quick.

00:32:41.060 The Minnesota George Floyd Autonomous Zone was up for, I think, two years. 0.99

00:32:44.460 Damn. 0.95

00:32:44.800 Where George Floyd Square was occupied to the point where there was a guy on a rooftop with a rifle that people had reported seeing all the time, and there was nothing stopping any of these people from taking this territory. 0.99

00:32:54.860 Now, we may look – maybe nothing happens.

00:32:57.220 You know, fair point on the civil rights movement.

00:32:59.280 Many people thought this could lead to a second civil war.

00:33:01.780 There's also – I think it was, what, 1876 where they thought the civil war was going to erupt again.

00:33:06.120 They had the corrupt bargain.

00:33:07.680 It didn't happen.

00:33:08.800 We said, guys, we're not going to let it get that far.

00:33:10.780 But today what I think is different is we have militant extremist factions that have already taken over portions of cities.

00:33:18.260 Maybe it doesn't go anywhere.

00:33:19.580 Or maybe after Trump wins, they flood these cities. 0.98

00:33:22.640 If you get a state like – look, when they say – when the vice president gives a press conference where she says Donald Trump is a fascist and he is Hitler. 0.76

00:33:31.740 The message being sent that a lot of Republicans think is she's saying be violent or something like that.

00:33:35.920 I don't think that's necessarily the case.

00:33:36.960 I think she's saying you as an individual must take individual action to stop Donald Trump and Republicans from gaining power in any way you can.

00:33:45.560 Which means I am not concerned about a Democrat cabal or the deep state funneling in 10 million fake ballots in the middle of the night. 1.00

00:33:53.600 That's stupid. 0.98

00:33:54.480 What I'm concerned with is 10,000 random regular people working polling locations, looking left and looking right, 1.00

00:34:00.460 and then crumbling up a Trump vote and throwing it in the garbage and being like, oops, but that happens 10,000 times.

00:34:05.180 That could actually shift an election in one of these key swing states.

00:34:08.580 And there's nothing you can do because one individual tossing a handful of ballots is a oopsie daisies.

00:34:12.980 But it happening 10,000 times is an irreconcilable conflict.

00:34:17.840 Something like that could happen.

00:34:19.140 And then you need only the progressive left, which makes up a small, I think, 8 to 10 percent of the Democratic Party are the estimates.

00:34:26.960 And they hate Israel.

00:34:28.220 And they're going to be looking at a choice between pro-Israel and pro-Israel.

00:34:32.140 They might say, Donald Trump, OK, that's it.

00:34:34.320 We're out.

00:34:34.940 We're autonomous zoning.

00:34:36.540 And then you get urban level conflict, which is a civil strife period, perhaps.

00:34:41.080 Like you were saying, Rudyard, that there could be bombs going off in Chicago.

00:34:45.200 How do we get to 1,000 dead by April?

00:34:47.400 Me, I kind of feel like that might be a little over the top.

00:34:50.060 I don't know if we're anywhere.

00:34:51.260 1,000 is really low for a war.

00:34:52.700 It could be way worse.

00:34:53.760 But I'm saying it's like I don't know that we're at the point where we have enough tinder to spark the war in the immediate.

00:35:00.280 But I could be totally wrong.

00:35:02.000 I think maybe it's just normalcy bias or optimism bias where I'm like, I think there's got to be periods of –

00:35:07.700 there's got to – you know, we had a caning in the Senate.

00:35:10.160 And it wasn't even immediately after that that people were fighting.

00:35:12.320 We had seven years of bleeding Kansas.

00:35:13.840 This could ignite the bleeding Kansas phase, I suppose.

00:35:17.720 That being said, before Abraham Lincoln was inaugurated, seven states seceded from the union.

00:35:22.260 It may just be the fact that this election is so contentious, groups instantly rise up saying we will not accept this, and you immediately move into that pre-Civil War phase.

00:35:33.580 I can explain the exact context for why I think it's going to happen now, but I'll need to talk for a little bit because it's multiple points.

00:35:39.620 So the first one is what I described before, that the Republicans can't handle another four years of Biden because inflation and immigration.

00:35:49.880 The Democrats in the reverse, and this is one of the big things that got me onto thinking that we're going to have a war,

00:35:56.040 is the left has burned through all of their social capital, and they have no backup plan.

00:36:00.400 This is one of the things I've been studying for years, and it's bizarre.

00:36:03.620 You look at the leftist-owned organizations like Disney, like California, like, I don't know, half a dozen other things in media.

00:36:10.880 All of California.

00:36:11.740 Exactly, yeah.

00:36:13.500 The record labels.

00:36:14.540 Yeah, California is to states what Disney and Bud Light is to businesses.

00:36:20.480 And the Democrats have burned through all of their social capital, and whenever I look at leftist institutions, I am completely shocked at their incompetence.

00:36:29.300 And the problem is they've boxed themselves into a corner, and I find the Kamala situation to be beautiful because the left is eating their own grave, where they dug their own grave, and now they're forced to—

00:36:41.040 Eat it?

00:36:41.620 Eat it?

00:36:41.960 Yeah, I realized that went poorly.

00:36:43.380 I was going to say eat crow, and then I changed the metaphor.

00:36:46.160 Oh, eat dirt. 0.99

00:36:46.720 It will work.

00:36:47.620 Eat dirt. 0.53

00:36:48.080 Yeah, so they're eating their own grave, and they have no better plan, and the problem is they're controlled by insane DEI hire radicals.

00:37:00.100 The fact—just as an example, the fact that Boeing is operating off DEI hires is an example to me that these things are about to go to head, where—because if the left was purely cynical, they'd think, oh, the industries like DEI and the medical industry will keep the competent white guys in there.

00:37:18.080 But no, they genuinely believe this stuff, so it will cause social breakdowns.

00:37:22.220 So the Republicans have that issue.

00:37:23.780 The Democrats are in a problem where they've cut out all dissenters, and at the same time, their institutions are dead and can't survive.

00:37:32.480 So the left will want to start a war as a way to get out of their own internal issues, which is incredibly common historically.

00:37:41.860 So that's one angle of it, the right and the left's self-interest.

00:37:44.280 The other angle of it is that the average American is careening very close to bankruptcy now.

00:37:50.020 And if you look at the average American's savings, they built them up during COVID, and they're about to hit bankruptcy.

00:37:55.420 And the economic issues—the thing that I can't overstate on every single one of these podcasts is how completely miserable the average American is economically, socially, on a variety of different metrics.

00:38:08.940 And about 20 percent of Americans are doing better, 80 percent are doing vastly worse, and I don't think the average American can sustain another four years of this.

00:38:17.420 And it's going to keep piling up, and there's not going to be a solution until there is a war because the problems that make life so hard for the average American are—

00:38:26.940 I'm going to make a video how boomer bureaucracies are destroying America because I think the most dangerous thing to America and the West is the creation of these boomer bureaucracies that just consume everything

00:38:39.700 as they continue to try to support the boomers without the population structure they were invented with.

00:38:46.040 And so you have the right and the left in positions of desperation.

00:38:49.140 You have the average American in positions of desperation.

00:38:51.580 And also, we just have no cards left as a society.

00:38:55.660 We've burned—so let's say you had a horrible breakup, and you're drinking to get over the breakup, and then you become an alcoholic.

00:39:04.160 That's what we are, where we've—every single short-term strategy we would have done, whether money printing, whether burning old social—because we don't make new movies.

00:39:16.380 We don't make new music.

00:39:17.260 We've burned through all of our old social capital, and now there's no good new movies or music.

00:39:22.060 So we've burned through all of the cards we would use to delay this.

00:39:25.620 And I frankly think over the period we're talking about right now, so many Americans have been pushed into poverty and bankruptcy that they're just going to say YOLO, and that YOLO—and I want there to be a civil war because that way there's going to be a debt jubilee.

00:39:42.840 Well, so I asked our good AI friend to make the average—make a graph showing the average American savings over the past 10 years adjusted for inflation.

00:39:53.820 And you can see that we are now below 2014 levels as of today.

00:39:58.940 But it's not—what's interesting to me is not that it's comparable to 2014.

00:40:03.240 It's the massive drop-off from 2020 to 2020—that's cost three existing data.

00:40:10.560 So it's interesting because, okay, well, we're only as bad as we were in 2014, right?

00:40:15.580 But imagine how someone feels, and feelings matter more than what is.

00:40:20.360 The thing that doesn't cover is cost of living, where cost of living has skyrocketed since 2014 to an insane degree.

00:40:28.380 Housing, food—and the last time I was on this show, I was talking about the great wave and the economic patterns used to predict conflicts like this.

00:40:37.100 And it's high resource price, high food price, high real estate, economic bull runs, massive government budget that keeps surging.

00:40:49.060 And what I've consistently found is that our budget is ridiculous.

00:40:52.880 We're never going to repay it.

00:40:54.400 We have to come to terms with the fact that America will end up becoming a bankrupt country.

00:40:58.740 And so it's only a matter of time before we default on the debt, and there's no way to default on the debt without a political crisis.

00:41:08.100 And this is how most of those previous—most of those previous historic crises took place because you have to get rid of the debt.

00:41:17.220 And the way you get rid of the debt is by changing the government so the new government's not responsible for the old government.

00:41:21.980 This is wild.

00:41:23.180 It makes sense.

00:41:24.560 The cost of living by dollars is so high that it's hard to actually even track the average savings.

00:41:30.840 Yeah.

00:41:31.400 Yeah.

00:41:32.200 Well, that's cutting into the savings because people have far less to save.

00:41:37.000 I live there.

00:41:37.900 I don't need to see that.

00:41:39.560 So you can see the average cost of living has gone from 2014 about $50,000 a year to around, it looks like, $65,000 a year, while the average savings has been declining.

00:41:49.840 So this is actually an interesting point.

00:41:51.400 Where this goes or how this changes, I don't know, but it does show that at least in the past decade, people have not been accumulating savings.

00:42:00.120 They've been burning through savings.

00:42:01.540 Yes, yes.

00:42:02.220 That is to say that it's like watching—you know, your cell phone is plugged in, and you're using it, and it is charging but still dying because you're using more.

00:42:12.120 Yes, yes.

00:42:13.000 Don't you hate when that happens, too?

00:42:13.960 You're like, it's plugged in, but it's like not charging.

00:42:15.660 Yeah, I've had that issue.

00:42:17.740 The thing with civil wars that no one brings up, and I'm glad you teased this point out of me because it's important, but I would never say it without that intro, is the reason people have civil wars is they provide very good plausible deniability for a variety of things.

00:42:30.380 If you are envious of your wealthier neighbor and you want to take their stuff, civil war.

00:42:35.440 If you're bankrupt and you don't want to pay back your loans, civil war.

00:42:38.840 If you won't get reelected in your district due to leftist competition, civil war.

00:42:44.880 Civil war is just a get-out-of-jail-free card for a variety of things that are difficult to deal with.

00:42:51.840 You could say, like, the medical industry is a tapeworm that consumes America, and you could just say civil war, goodbye medical industry.

00:42:59.580 Doctors, you trained for three years, not ten now.

00:43:02.440 Civil war is a, in a very cynical sense, is a get-out-of-jail-free card for yes.

00:43:07.820 Does it look?

00:43:08.660 Yeah, I live.

00:43:09.600 I made a new graph.

00:43:10.760 This is average income compared with the average cost of living by dollars.

00:43:15.240 Yeah, this is my entire social network.

00:43:16.860 And this is really something.

00:43:19.080 In 2014, the income was just about, what, we're looking at $13,000 above the cost of living, meaning, on average, people were saving or had a certain degree of disposable income.

00:43:30.820 We are at the point now where people are struggling to get by.

00:43:35.060 There's no disposable income.

00:43:36.440 On average, this country is paycheck to paycheck.

00:43:39.140 I can give you a real simple human equation.

00:43:41.860 If the cost of water ever exceeds the wages earned, your society, people, it's civil war, period.

00:43:50.200 And this is not a real, it's not a real-world metric.

00:43:54.900 What I'm saying is, you see those videos we were talking about a couple weeks ago where there's, like, a lion and a gazelle, and they're both drinking from the watering hole, and they're like, no, no, we're not fighting here.

00:44:03.120 Because the lions are like, everybody's got to have water.

00:44:05.640 And the alligators are crocodiles.

00:44:07.140 Oh, is it crocodiles they got down there, not alligators?

00:44:09.240 Yeah.

00:44:09.440 They'll snatch you up, but the animals will be at the watering hole, and it's like truce.

00:44:13.820 Because if at any point there's stress where we cannot get water, we're done.

00:44:18.500 We're going to go fight when we're in the plains.

00:44:20.800 The thing about water is, I was thinking about this because of Flint.

00:44:24.700 The cost of water became so great, people fled.

00:44:27.280 There was an opportunity to go somewhere else.

00:44:29.700 People talk about the three factors that result in revolution or civil war.

00:44:33.380 It's do you have food, do you have security, and I forgot what the last one is.

00:44:36.880 Do you know what the three factors were?

00:44:39.440 This came out bigly during the Arab Spring when the questions were being asked why all of these countries went and had revolutions.

00:44:48.200 And one of the factors was the cost of food.

00:44:51.060 And I think security slash shelter is one of them, too.

00:44:53.780 But the cost of food was too high.

00:44:55.440 So people were working really, really hard, and they still couldn't afford all of the calories they needed to live.

00:45:00.740 And so they just get to the point where they say, I don't want to die.

00:45:03.440 I need food.

00:45:04.500 Chaos ensues.

00:45:05.500 Yeah.

00:45:05.900 The example in Tunisia was, what was the guy's name?

00:45:08.600 Was it Mohamed Bouzizi?

00:45:10.220 I could be getting it wrong.

00:45:11.160 He was a fruit cart vendor.

00:45:12.380 And police came up to him and said, you were not legally allowed to sell fruit.

00:45:16.420 And he says, I am going to die if I don't make money.

00:45:19.100 And they stopped him and said, no more selling fruit.

00:45:21.140 So he went in front of a government building, set himself on fire in protest, saying, I can't live anymore.

00:45:25.520 I'm done.

00:45:26.000 And this ignited the Tunisian Revolution, which I believe sparked the entirety of the Arab Spring.

00:45:30.120 It's spread all across the region.

00:45:31.660 Looking at this map, seeing that the cost of living is about to slam into the average income.

00:45:38.800 This means that people will be working as hard as they possibly can, and they will not be making enough to live.

00:45:45.500 At a certain point after that, a human being says, the only way I can get my resources is through extra legal means.

00:45:52.740 The system has failed.

00:45:53.800 That's a worrying point.

00:45:55.180 I should say we're at a worrying point because this data ends 2023, and we are almost done with 2024.

00:46:01.320 So I can only assume if we extrapolate the data, we may be at the inflection point where people can't afford anymore.

00:46:08.640 I work 40 hours a week, and I'm losing money.

00:46:12.020 I'm burning savings.

00:46:13.120 That's why savings is going down.

00:46:15.140 How will I feed my family next year?

00:46:17.740 It could be simple.

00:46:19.200 Trump wins.

00:46:20.320 Everybody cheers and says, maybe Trump will turn things around.

00:46:23.160 And they're willing to wait for a year, file for government benefits or whatever in the meantime, and see if things turn around.

00:46:30.500 It's possible that Trump turns things around to such a degree that we alleviate any serious crisis.

00:46:34.640 This is the reality we live with now.

00:46:36.960 And it's funny that I've had to – I've gone on a lot of podcasts to talk about the Civil War.

00:46:40.980 And this is one of those things I really have to hammer into most podcast hosts, and they just don't get it, where most Americans – 80 percent of Americans live paycheck to paycheck now.

00:46:49.960 40 percent of Americans have less than $400 in savings.

00:46:54.860 70 percent have less than $1,000 of savings.

00:46:58.000 And it's something people are completely disconnected to.

00:47:00.480 But the average American can't make it another four years because there's no countervening force to this.

00:47:06.700 And when you look at the world, you'll see a measure, and you think, what's the pressure against that?

00:47:11.820 The pressure against that can often equalize it or push it back.

00:47:15.300 And there's no force in America that's actively pushing against that trend.

00:47:21.800 There's no – because AI is the big advance I see recently, and AI is not going to help normal Americans.

00:47:28.880 It's going to make it worse.

00:47:29.680 Exactly, yeah.

00:47:31.080 What we're already seeing with – let me put it this way.

00:47:35.220 You cannot live working at Taco Bell.

00:47:38.600 Yeah.

00:47:38.980 It's not possible.

00:47:39.580 When I was 18, I worked at O'Hare.

00:47:43.080 And I remember why I quit because I was in massive debt.

00:47:48.120 Massive debt.

00:47:48.780 I generated about $1,000 in credit card debt because if I wanted to eat to live and have gas to drive to work, I was using my credit cards.

00:47:56.460 Yeah.

00:47:56.680 But then when my paycheck would come in, I'd be like, okay, shoes – like I have one pair of shoes and they're fried.

00:48:02.340 If I want to buy a pair of shoes, if I want to pay my car insurance, if I want to get my registration, all the things I got to do, my paycheck is down to almost nothing, but I have to eat.

00:48:08.760 And so then it looks like gas is coming on the credit card.

00:48:11.380 Then I have to pay the minimum balance on the credit card, but then the balance goes up.

00:48:15.080 Yeah.

00:48:15.200 Eventually, after six, seven months – I worked there for two years – it got to a point where I said, I'm working – I was working probably like 40, 50 hours a week.

00:48:24.400 I was picking up extra shifts.

00:48:25.600 I was working overtime and doing doubles trying to make money.

00:48:28.560 And I'm like, unless I work here 80 hours a week, I can't actually pay for gas, buy food, and live.

00:48:35.080 I have no health insurance.

00:48:36.820 I was sleeping on a friend's couch, and I'm like, this is not possible.

00:48:41.580 It's an impossibility.

00:48:43.080 So if you're at Taco Bell right now and you're like, I am working as hard as I can – and no offense, Taco Bell.

00:48:47.620 We like Taco Bell.

00:48:48.200 I'm just saying.

00:48:48.660 They don't pay enough.

00:48:50.000 And I think it's government factors that play a role in this, but let's just say you're working a standard entry-level minimum wage job.

00:48:56.520 Now they're going to replace you with a kiosk, and they've already done it.

00:48:59.520 The Taco Bell over here, you walk in, it's four kiosks, and you walk up, and you just go boop, boop, boop, and then there's two guys in the back making the food.

00:49:07.620 They walk up and go, number 54, you don't need a cashier anymore.

00:49:11.120 You just have only a couple of people.

00:49:12.640 They've dramatically reduced the amount of people who have jobs.

00:49:14.740 So now you're going to have an increasing number of people trying to file for benefits.

00:49:19.000 Now we're looking at another equation.

00:49:20.280 The amount of buying power and resources put into the U.S. system, welfare base, is going to become less than the amount of people extracting from it.

00:49:31.440 The deficit will skyrocket.

00:49:33.040 The debt will skyrocket.

00:49:34.480 And then eventually, the people who are working are like, 80% of my revenue is going towards people who don't have jobs.

00:49:40.940 I talked about this a really long time ago pertaining to automation and the dangers of automation.

00:49:45.560 I'm not a Luddite.

00:49:46.580 I think automation is a good thing, but it has to be properly managed.

00:49:48.860 If we get to the point where we say, you don't need fast food workers anymore, let's do UBI.

00:49:55.260 This is a big push that I remember going back to Occupy where people said we should have universal basic income because automation is replacing a lot of labor.

00:50:02.180 So now everybody should have a bare minimum access to these things.

00:50:06.580 Yes, that's right.

00:50:07.480 So the guy who lives in the city and no longer works at Taco Bell but still gets the equivalent of minimum wage at 40 hours a week is going to be sitting in his living room enjoying life.

00:50:15.920 And let's say he's a very upstanding citizen.

00:50:18.060 He goes to church every Sunday.

00:50:19.320 There's going to be a farmer who's going to say, why do I have to work 40 hours a week to make the food this guy gets for free?

00:50:26.280 I refuse.

00:50:27.580 You will always have, and I don't think there's a way to properly manage it, a situation where someone has to do work and someone else does not with automation.

00:50:35.820 And that is another recipe for civil war.

00:50:38.200 Yes.

00:50:38.900 What you're talking about is the same calculation as aging.

00:50:41.760 And sadly, both of us are hitting – both of them are hitting us at the exact same time where aging will naturally end up in an issue where you have a small young population working to support a large elderly population.

00:50:53.740 And the young population will get intensely resentful about that, especially if you look at the boomers. 0.93

00:50:59.560 The boomers have done very financially well for their whole life.

00:51:02.580 And so you're asking Zoomers who have basically been screwed over their whole lives to support the boomers' retirements. 0.98

00:51:08.140 And so that's going to end up becoming a massive issue.

00:51:10.780 Oh, bro, they're going to say no.

00:51:12.260 Yeah, exactly.

00:51:13.000 And the Zoomers are going to have the military power too because they'll be the people with the guns in the army. 1.00

00:51:18.340 And so that's going to get ugly.

00:51:20.680 Well, I don't know if I agree.

00:51:22.560 Yeah.

00:51:23.160 Boomers are going to control the military because of their accumulation of base assets, right? 1.00

00:51:28.800 So you take a look at like Venezuela.

00:51:30.940 You're going to have a 25-year-old National Guardsman, and the boomer is going to say, we control the bank accounts.

00:51:35.640 We control the flow of resources.

00:51:37.000 If you want to feed your family, you're going to work for me.

00:51:39.000 And they're going to say okay.

00:51:39.640 But you will have revolutionary Zoomers who are going to say, I am done doing labor for you. 1.00

00:51:45.500 And that's when you get this impasse.

00:51:48.120 Currently, I think the estimate is between 2.8 and 4 workers to cover the cost of one Social Security recipient.

00:51:54.920 So as we have an aging population and a depopulation at the same time, this is another reason I think Democrats want to bring in as many illegal immigrants as possible to bolster the tax base. 0.97

00:52:06.220 Yeah.

00:52:06.660 Because if you get to that point, which they're estimating 2032, where Social Security becomes insolvent and they can only pay out what goes into it, there's going to be a lot of very angry boomers and older Gen Xers who are going to be saying, I paid into this. 0.52

00:52:21.900 I deserve it.

00:52:23.200 It's mine.

00:52:23.900 And they're going to say, except due to the cost of living increase in inflation, you've paid into at one times and you need 2.8 to four times to pay you back.

00:52:33.680 Now you're asking young people to do labor for you. 0.98

00:52:36.480 There's no answer there.

00:52:38.000 Yeah.

00:52:38.320 The conflict becomes powerful elites who control structures and can influence and guarantee food and resources to younger people who fight and younger people who fight.

00:52:45.820 No, I totally agree on the generational conflict matter, but I don't know if we will have a civil war between the boomers and the villages versus the blue haired zoomers. 0.88

00:52:55.560 Maybe we could have that.

00:52:56.720 But I do agree with your point that whoever pays the military, that's who they're going to serve.

00:53:00.660 And it's going to be the boomers and Gen Xers serving them. 0.99

00:53:04.000 But on the automation, I actually have to give some defense of automation because a lot of these jobs that are going to be replaced by automation, that's what we're bringing in the illegals and immigrants to do. 1.00

00:53:16.400 I mean, I don't know about the local Taco Bell, but you can go to a lot of Taco Bells, even off the interstate and rural areas, and you'll see somebody barely speaks English at that job.

00:53:26.460 And you'd probably be – actually, I'd much rather have an AI kiosk to help me there.

00:53:31.200 And that would also – a lot of these people, if they're like they don't have a job, then they'll go back to Guatemala.

00:53:36.260 So I think actually there are a lot of Americans who are hurt by this, but a lot of the Americans who are hurt are already on the welfare system as is.

00:53:43.660 Now, there are some things that – negative that would be impacted, but there's other things that would be positively impacted.

00:53:50.120 Now, on the point of the economic problems, I mean, we've had several severe economic problems throughout our history.

00:53:57.100 You know, throughout the 19th century, panic of 1837, elsewhere, there was times where people had all their savings wiped out and they could no longer feed themselves.

00:54:05.640 And this was even the case in the Great Depression.

00:54:07.860 People were legitimately starving.

00:54:10.180 The thing about America is that our poorest people are able to be obese, that they're eating too much, and they don't have to worry about food and water.

00:54:19.120 Now, they do have to worry about where they're going to sleep at night and this, but they also even have iPhones and all these trinkets that, you know, the poor people who are literally starving in Africa could never dream of.

00:54:33.120 And going to your point about the, you know, with the debt, people – individual people having debt and all these problems and then civil war solving that, but that's an individual – that's on the individual level.

00:54:45.260 An individual himself cannot start a civil war.

00:54:47.800 It has to be a large group.

00:54:49.320 And so if a large group, you know, it has to be like a state of something, you know, a sizable amount of people, millions of people who all have the same problem and then saying, okay, this civil war, we're starting that.

00:55:02.040 And generally, if you look at past conflicts, it's either that they feel that their rights are being denied or that they would like independence for their spot of land or that there is this grave insult that the majority population of the government paid to their culture of some sort.

00:55:17.680 Then they would go along with it.

00:55:19.420 But when these individual problems, bankruptcy or whatever – a lot of these solutions for these individual problems is bankruptcy, but you're suggesting it's actually civil war is the better solution for those problems.

00:55:33.080 I mean, bankruptcy doesn't solve that you can't feed your two small children.

00:55:36.860 True, but I think in America pretty much – I mean, the thing is, is that people find a way to feed their children, whether it's food stamps or anything.

00:55:45.780 We have such a system that we don't really have to worry about the mass starvation of a level that we did in the 19th century.

00:55:51.900 And I agree with that.

00:55:52.660 My point is saying that when the – when we get to the level where more people have to pay into benefits and do work, when the majority is receiving these benefits, the system is inverted and it can't sustain itself.

00:56:05.980 Then you're going to find – perhaps it's a simple economic collapse.

00:56:11.480 It doesn't necessarily mean everyone's going to go start fighting, but it does mean the system is shattered.

00:56:15.520 Yeah, it could be a collapse.

00:56:16.560 I think a collapse is a better way of saying it, but we don't know what would happen afterwards.

00:56:21.280 I mean, it would probably be roving bands of gangs.

00:56:23.200 It's like the Roman Empire with these war bands around. 0.92

00:56:26.720 I mean, the fall of the Roman Empire is basically MS-13 and Hell's Angels and these gangs just fighting it out over the remnants.

00:56:32.900 The factor that I believe is on top of all of this is that with all of these issues we are describing, not one single one being a guarantee of civil war, you have to factor in that there are two distinct moral worldviews between the right and the left.

00:56:44.300 And when these problems – when the system collapses, when there's an inversion, when you look at the willingness to engage in violence from the left already, then you basically have not one moment, but you have ingredients in a single cauldron, which could be civil war.

00:56:59.860 And again, that's why I'm saying I don't know that I agree – I said I don't agree that by April there's 1,000 dead people.

00:57:04.880 That being said, the summer of love was something like 36 deaths, and that was a period of, what, four days?

00:57:10.040 So if we get something like that sustained every four days, 30-plus deaths, I don't know – we're going to get to 1,000, but we'll certainly have hundreds.

00:57:16.980 A couple of things.

00:57:18.300 The first is we're acting as if the historic record doesn't exist, but the reality is the historic record is the only thing we actually have to study.

00:57:25.240 And if you look at the historic record, war is completely normal. 0.99

00:57:29.400 If you want to bet over someone's life whether or not there will be a major war, you should always bet there's going to be a major war in every lifetime.

00:57:35.480 And keep in mind, the bloodiest events in history all occurred within living memory.

00:57:40.800 People who fought in World War II and lived through Stalinism and Nazism are still alive today.

00:57:45.600 So we're not better people than we were 70 years ago, and war is really normal.

00:57:49.920 How many of those wars have happened within Western Europe and the homeland of America?

00:57:55.320 I mean, we've had wars several all throughout the Third World, but how many of those wars have taken place in the West?

00:58:02.120 World War II.

00:58:02.960 Real quick, sorry, I did some math.

00:58:05.440 If you're saying that by April there will be 1,000 dead, is it fair to say you're including the month of April in that equation?

00:58:12.540 Yes.

00:58:12.760 Like, let's say the end of April?

00:58:14.340 Yes.

00:58:14.680 If starting today we had a Summer of Love-style level of violence and has to start today until the end of April, that would be 1,645 deaths.

00:58:27.240 So if we were to cut that by a third and remove two months from the equation and start from the end of December, then Rudyard's estimate makes sense if we get Summer of Love level of violence in December.

00:58:39.060 1,000 deaths is also nothing.

00:58:40.440 It's difficult to convey that point, but you look at war, and let's say there's a very basic supply chain breakdown, even stuff like you can't get medical equipment for a few weeks.

00:58:52.300 That's millions of deaths because of millions of deaths because of millions of people are relying upon very complex medical systems.

00:58:58.200 If Los Angeles, the port of Los Angeles gets blockaded for a few weeks.

00:59:03.440 Well, who's blockading it?

00:59:05.600 So, let me finish the point.

00:59:07.180 I'm sorry, I've got to pause you.

00:59:08.080 Yeah.

00:59:08.700 I did the math.

00:59:09.780 Yeah.

00:59:10.160 I asked Chet GPT if we were trying to—I said, assuming that the end of April is the end of this calculation,

00:59:17.200 on what day would violence have to begin in order to reach 1,000 deaths by April?

00:59:23.000 And do you know what that date was?

00:59:24.440 January 6, 2025.

00:59:26.080 Oh, whoa.

00:59:27.480 Uh-oh.

00:59:28.720 Let's see what the fates say.

00:59:30.960 Yeah, what?

00:59:31.780 That I did not see coming.

00:59:32.460 We might have a prophet here.

00:59:33.480 I mean, the way war works is—and we're acting as if the world is mathematical and reasonable and rational,

00:59:41.040 and the world really isn't.

00:59:42.540 World War I, there were no deaths, and then half a million men died in a few hours.

00:59:47.140 And if there's a war, and we forget how big population numbers are, we could easily have 20 million deaths

00:59:53.040 because you starve out certain cities, you bomb certain areas.

00:59:56.320 Because people—keep in mind, the part of Germany where my ancestors were from in the Thirty Years' War,

01:00:02.960 80 percent of their population died.

01:00:05.020 Stuff like that's not unreasonable because supply chains are so interdependent and complex.

01:00:10.460 You could very easily have cities starve.

01:00:13.160 They would have—people would have no food. 0.65

01:00:14.660 They'd have no idea how to forage.

01:00:16.400 Medical equipment's incredibly—a lot of people have medical conditions that require very complex supply chains.

01:00:22.580 It's very easy to have lots of people die.

01:00:25.440 And you look at the World Wars, again, in living memory, 40 million people died in the Eastern Front.

01:00:31.180 I don't think things will get that ugly, but 1,000 deaths is nothing.

01:00:34.840 That's like a single charge for a single—like a single front of infantry in a battle.

01:00:39.920 That's 1,000 deaths in a handful of hours.

01:00:42.660 Or even—you could have 1,000 deaths, a single front of a battle in a half an hour period.

01:00:49.080 This is what the World Wars were. 0.75

01:00:50.260 Yeah, I think if you were having the type of riots you were having in the late 60s, 1,000 could be reasonable.

01:00:56.960 I mean, because, you know, these cities throughout the country in 67, 68 were basically going under an insurrection, and hundreds were dying.

01:01:05.320 I think, you know, like hundreds died in Detroit and New York.

01:01:08.760 So if you do have that situation, you could have that.

01:01:11.620 But even in our mass riots we had in 2020, where we had 36 die, but there were far more riots and it was everywhere, it was still very bad.

01:01:22.540 I'm not trying to downplay the summer of 2020, but it was less bad than what it was in 68, where, you know, the type of violence that was being able to commit was more even back then.

01:01:35.200 Now, this could change. Maybe this happens after the election in 2024, but who would be committing this violence?

01:01:42.800 And the people who would be most worked up about the election, say, if Trump wins, would be middle-aged cat ladies. 1.00

01:01:49.940 It would not be the urban population that you need that were waging this insurrection back in the late 60s.

01:01:56.420 And even now when people go up and there's enough man on the street interviews with local blacks in Chicago and Detroit, and they're like, I like Trump. 0.72

01:02:05.100 You know, they're like, I don't know if those people are going to be rioting.

01:02:08.560 But that's not real.

01:02:10.820 I mean, their votes aren't real, but I just don't think that they're not that angry about Trump.

01:02:14.200 These videos are not including the Kamala voters.

01:02:17.160 They're intentionally asking 10 people and then showing the five Trump voters.

01:02:20.500 I think the majority of those areas are 100% going for Kamala, and a lot of those guys who say they're voting for Trump, their ballot has already been cast for Kamala.

01:02:28.020 But I'm just saying that they don't seem that upset by Trump.

01:02:31.380 But understand, you're talking about selectively edited videos to make a point where – and I've talked about – there was one recently that went viral where it's a guy working at a gas station, and he asked the young black men coming in, who are you voting for?

01:02:42.640 And you can see in the background there are other people, but for some reason never appear in his video because he's showing the Trump supporters.

01:02:49.960 And it's fine if you want to say, look at these black men I met who want to support Trump, but they're not including the Harris voters, which is the overwhelming majority in those areas.

01:02:57.160 Additionally, just because there are cat ladies who overwhelmingly vote in one direction doesn't mean it's reasonable to assume they'd be the ones fighting. 1.00

01:03:04.240 Well, they were the ones who protested immediately after Trump was one in 2016.

01:03:08.880 What matters is control of assets and the means to control a young person who is capable or willing to fight.

01:03:16.300 Then there's also – if you live in – this is interesting.

01:03:19.700 When you look at that movie Civil War that came out earlier in the year, the map they drew shows West Virginia as part of the federal apparatus.

01:03:27.760 Well, that didn't make sense, right?

01:03:28.940 Why would West Virginia – because West Virginia is territorially locked and will be conquered in two seconds.

01:03:32.860 Now, to be fair, West Virginia probably will not be conquered in two seconds because it's mountainous and very hard to move through and gain control of.

01:03:39.420 But because of its proximity to D.C., it's going to be left.

01:03:42.180 It's going to be Democrat.

01:03:43.900 West Virginia is the second most Trump-supporting state in the country.

01:03:46.980 But it's going to be one of the first moves made by federal authorities in the event of any kind of state dispute.

01:03:51.460 I'm not saying that's what's going to happen.

01:03:52.360 I'm saying that's why the movie predicted West Virginia would be aligned with Virginia and Maryland because of proximity.

01:03:57.500 So my point there is cat ladies are going to sit there and complain, and then they're going to vote, and the politicians are going to say these are the allocation of resources. 1.00

01:04:06.840 Then there's going to be a bunch of Zoomers who are like, look, man, I'm in the National Guard, and I live in Maryland, and they're ordering me to do this. 1.00

01:04:14.220 Cat ladies not fighting. 0.99

01:04:15.400 It's the young people that they send to fight. 1.00

01:04:16.620 Well, it depends.

01:04:18.020 The point I was bringing up is like who is doing the fighting, who's taking the streets, and who's committing the acts of violence.

01:04:22.960 Now, as I want to make the point, I don't think young black men are a majority or even a significant number of them besides 10, 15, or 20 percent are actually voting for Trump.

01:04:34.500 I just think that they're not that energized enough to commit the acts of violence, and I would say it's probably similar with young Hispanic men. 0.89

01:04:42.600 Civil wars, wars are a young men's game. 0.99

01:04:44.920 So you have to find some demographic of young men capable of committing violence and doing bad things out in the street.

01:04:51.520 And right now, I don't think the left has that element. 0.97

01:04:55.180 So if Trump wins, it would be, once again, a replay of the Women's March that happened in 2016, which the women in the pussy hats are just not going to be toppling much of anything. 1.00

01:05:06.860 And I don't even know if Trump voters are going to do the same thing if he is not, if he's declared the loser, because they're worried of what happened after January 6th, and they don't want that to happen to them. 0.89

01:05:18.120 If you look at it like the pussy hat wearing women are the establishment neolib neocons that have, at right now, control of large police departments, I don't understand why we'd ever make the argument that they'd go around smashing things. 1.00

01:05:33.540 If the conflict arises where you have the Nancy, like Nancy Pelosi, right? 0.89

01:05:38.420 She was saying she wanted, what did she want?

01:05:40.540 Full auto 50 cal turrets or something?

01:05:43.240 Yeah, something like that.

01:05:44.080 Yeah, it was something insane where it's like, you can't put that in D.C.

01:05:47.380 Like the buildings would be just literally, it's insane.

01:05:51.320 But she has no idea.

01:05:52.700 She wouldn't be fighting, nor would any of the people who vote for her.

01:05:54.920 But they control D.C. law enforcement and force apparatus.

01:06:00.680 And that was seen in January 6th.

01:06:01.920 I mean, that's, you know, it wasn't the cat ladies going around arresting all these guys. 0.77

01:06:05.580 It was sending out, you know, the FBI and SWAT teams.

01:06:08.200 And so what did we see in 2018 that ignited the first conversations of a potential civil war?

01:06:13.900 It was 1,000 right-wing men and 1,000 left-wing men fighting in the streets of the Pacific Northwest and beating each other with clubs.

01:06:21.440 Or in Boston, when Antifa showed up with crowbars and baseball bats and masks, and the right showed up with shields and, you know, military-style looking clothing.

01:06:29.000 I say looking clothing because they're basically wearing, like, body armor and camo, but it probably wasn't even real body armor.

01:06:33.600 People were clashing with each other.

01:06:35.040 It doesn't need to be 50-50.

01:06:38.840 I mean, the estimates given during the American Revolution in that famous letter, I can't remember who wrote it.

01:06:44.020 It might have been John Adams or something.

01:06:45.740 It's not real numbers.

01:06:46.620 But he said one-third are for it, one-third are against it, and one-third don't care.

01:06:49.960 That's not actually what the real numbers were.

01:06:52.080 But the estimates were that it was a plurality that did not care.

01:06:57.100 It was a large portion that wanted a revolution and a smaller portion that were loyalists.

01:07:01.420 So the people who did not care were like, I don't know what's going on.

01:07:04.260 And a war broke out.

01:07:06.040 And this meant that people who didn't care had their homes occupied by British regulars or by either faction.

01:07:12.580 And just as an aside, there's a literal declaration of dependence.

01:07:16.520 I think it's always sunny in Philadelphia made a joke where they were going to write a declaration of dependence.

01:07:21.700 The loyalists in New York drafted a declaration of dependence saying we support the crown.

01:07:25.840 But anyway, I digress.

01:07:26.660 My point is I think you brought this up, Roger, that, like, Bolsheviks were like 3% of Russia.

01:07:30.600 Yeah.

01:07:31.240 As I was going to say, we're acting like the historic record doesn't exist, but it does.

01:07:35.820 And everything we're seeing now is completely normal in a society up to a civil war.

01:07:39.520 And you've asked me multiple times who would fight.

01:07:42.300 And if you look at these historic crises, most people are apathetic, especially so in wars outside America where most people are just peasants who farm.

01:07:50.880 And then the Lord tells them what to do.

01:07:52.360 And in the English Civil War, which is one of the closest parallels, it was widely known in England that the English were too weak to fight.

01:07:59.180 These have been over a century since England had had a war.

01:08:01.980 What happened then is that in each case, it's small groups of radicals that push for this.

01:08:07.780 The Bolsheviks, the Jacobins, all these groups are like less than 3% of the population. 0.54

01:08:12.480 And then they push their interests.

01:08:17.420 And for the right, there's lots of young men who would happily fight for the right because the left has boxed them into a corner.

01:08:24.240 And for the left, both sides would conscript people because when the government walks up to your door and says, your son's going to fight for us, you can't tell them no.

01:08:33.380 And the left would probably arm illegals because that's a demographic they could pull from. 0.99

01:08:39.360 They'd hire foreign mercenaries and arm illegals. 0.98

01:08:41.480 But this is why I've said in my videos, the right has an 80% chance of winning because the right provides much better incentives for the young men who would fight.

01:08:49.180 But let's not forget, erase all of this.

01:08:52.600 Let's say that there is a – it is a fact the left and the right are at extreme odds in this country.

01:08:57.480 Whether it goes to civil war, who knows?

01:08:58.640 Because China, Iran, Russia – in fact, all of BRICS has an incentive for this conflict to happen, which would end the petrodollar, basically destroy the United States, and allow the BRICS reserve currency to take over. 0.69

01:09:11.440 In every conflict – let's go to the American Revolution – you had outside financiers.

01:09:16.100 So we say, ha-ha, the French intervened and helped us win our independence.

01:09:19.800 Not really.

01:09:20.580 The French intervened because they were already at war with Britain and they were like, hey, these guys will help us fight.

01:09:24.760 So for them it was like, yeah, let's go to war.

01:09:26.600 And then I love asking British folk how they view the American Revolution.

01:09:31.300 And I was talking to Carl Benjamin and he's like, mate, that was like 20 years in our 1,000-year history.

01:09:36.440 It's like we mentioned it a little bit, but the bigger picture was the wars happening in Europe, not you guys.

01:09:42.440 He's like, I understand for you it's your entire identity.

01:09:44.480 But for us it was one small component of an ongoing war that had been happening for some time.

01:09:48.460 And I'm like, that's a really good point.

01:09:49.820 So my point here is, let's say there is no – there's not a strong enough appetite for a real civil war.

01:09:56.900 Certainly you will see external forces trying to make that happen, as I believe they are now.

01:10:02.460 Why wouldn't they be?

01:10:03.480 And then if it got to the point where there was a pile of tinder, China is going to march right in and try and figure out how to light it up. 1.00

01:10:09.500 But yeah, I find that with – who is the force pushing for American unity?

01:10:18.640 Because there's lots of forces pushing for disunity, but I see no single unifying thing in America.

01:10:24.620 There's no one thing all Americans can agree on.

01:10:27.680 Social security.

01:10:29.300 I don't agree on that. 0.99

01:10:30.640 I'm going to have to pay that crap and I'll never take it. 0.98

01:10:32.620 I don't agree with it either. 0.98

01:10:33.480 We have – it's clearly a joke, but we do have these services that everyone takes part of.

01:10:39.920 I mean, we all like roads.

01:10:41.720 We all like – we all – most people like the military.

01:10:45.000 We all like the safety and security that the American state provides.

01:10:49.960 But I would say the united factor would be the state itself, even though the state is up for grabs,

01:10:54.840 is the state has a desire to not go towards disunity and chaos,

01:10:59.940 as we saw in the aftermath of the election last time where they came down hard on Trump supporters

01:11:05.540 over the overblown fear that somehow they're going to wage a coup or something,

01:11:10.020 even though it was people going around the Capitol taking selfies.

01:11:13.140 They came down that hard because they thought that was a threat

01:11:15.940 and that could potentially spiral into disunity.

01:11:19.140 And as long as the federal state is extremely strong, which it is,

01:11:22.440 it's much stronger than it was in the 1860s,

01:11:24.860 and it's even much stronger than it was in the 1960s,

01:11:27.420 it's going to keep this together.

01:11:28.580 Now, if that collapse or was weakened, say,

01:11:32.340 China takes Taiwan and we lost in that war or conflict over it,

01:11:37.380 that could be a weakening of the state and that could delegitimize it,

01:11:41.280 and then people could be trying to break off and then something like a civil war happens.

01:11:45.640 There's no legitimacy in the state.

01:11:47.040 When you poll average Americans, they hate the state.

01:11:49.380 The state is like a 20% approval rate.

01:11:51.520 My question to you is if a civil war were to happen, what would it look like?

01:11:55.260 What evidence would you need to see in the real world to know that there would be a civil war?

01:11:59.340 I would have to see two clear sides, and I would have to see,

01:12:06.380 it would have to be some types of battles, at least with people, two different sides,

01:12:12.160 fighting over cities.

01:12:14.080 It might not be like a traditional war.

01:12:16.340 It might be more guerrilla war or something like we saw in the Troubles in Northern Ireland,

01:12:20.800 but it could be something along those regards.

01:12:23.840 I'd need to see two clear sides.

01:12:25.000 Well, so let me ask real quick, how many factions were in the Syrian civil war?

01:12:28.880 How many sides were there?

01:12:29.600 Well, there are several, and there are several factions in the Lebanese civil war.

01:12:32.580 I would, let me rephrase this.

01:12:35.000 There have to be, there have to be sides where people are fighting lethally,

01:12:39.900 using lethal amounts of violence with guns, with traditional military weaponry.

01:12:45.460 So what you're saying is when a civil war starts, you will agree there's a civil war.

01:12:48.160 That's what I was going to say.

01:12:49.000 Yeah, I think it has, it'd have to be, you'd have, even something like the Lebanese civil war,

01:12:53.540 the Syrian civil war, where there's like a dozen different factions,

01:12:56.420 there are battles occurring over cities, where there are fights between

01:13:00.840 either two or multiple sides over a city, and that's occurring.

01:13:05.380 So what evidence do you need to believe we are on track for a civil war?

01:13:09.840 That there are...

01:13:10.820 No, no, no, no, no, no.

01:13:11.520 That was you saying, if a civil war happens, I will agree there's a civil war. 0.77

01:13:14.520 What needs to be happening in a country for you to think, hey, a civil war might happen?

01:13:20.500 There'd have to be, there'd have to be like a bleeding Kansas, 0.93

01:13:24.000 or something that people are willing to use violence even to get to the way of lethal.

01:13:28.900 It might not be like they're actually fighting for control over a city,

01:13:32.340 but say the left has an insurrection in Seattle,

01:13:36.520 and then they fight with police and soldiers there.

01:13:40.080 And maybe it doesn't rise to the way of war, but it shows that this could be replicated.

01:13:46.040 Wait, wait, wait.

01:13:46.720 Do you think that in the American civil war, like the citizens of Atlanta were fighting the Georgian government?

01:13:52.740 No, but I'm saying that...

01:13:53.680 So why would the left fight themselves in their own city?

01:13:56.720 I'm saying if they tried to declare the Seattle independent of the United States,

01:14:00.340 that the state would come down hard on them.

01:14:03.320 Why would this, why would, why would they...

01:14:05.000 But...

01:14:05.160 I'm just trying to clarify this.

01:14:06.960 Because in Seattle, when they took over the Chaz for a couple of months and murdered people, 1.00

01:14:11.400 took over a police station, the government largely agreed with them and let them do it.

01:14:15.220 So it's like saying, there's got to be two factions...

01:14:17.740 I'm just pointing out a hypothetical here.

01:14:19.260 But hold on, right.

01:14:20.540 So the clarification is, a civil war requires some sides,

01:14:24.840 but why would they be fighting themselves?

01:14:26.760 I don't understand what you're trying to say.

01:14:27.940 Like, why would leftist progressives in a leftist progressive state fight themselves?

01:14:32.100 Wouldn't they want to fight, say, Nebraska or Texas?

01:14:35.000 You could say, you could go this to, say, Atlanta, or you could say any other city.

01:14:38.200 I'm just saying that, say, you have leftists in a city that launched an insurrection against

01:14:42.980 the city government or the state, and then the federal...

01:14:45.120 And they're saying, we're now an independent city of Atlanta or Seattle.

01:14:48.300 But if Seattle, if the Chaz then tried to take over the city and then say, 0.99

01:14:52.440 we're independent of the United States government,

01:14:54.240 there would be lethal force to come down on.

01:14:57.120 Wait, wait, hold on.

01:14:57.560 So I'm confused.

01:14:58.160 In the American Civil War, and the American Civil War is not indicative of every other

01:15:03.480 civil war, but I'm just saying, like, in Georgia, they weren't walking out of the houses and

01:15:08.560 going, oh, I hate the Georgian government.

01:15:10.640 I'm going to declare independence from my own state.

01:15:12.560 They were saying the other people over there are bad.

01:15:15.280 So if Seattle, as a group, says, we want to, we're going to defy federal law,

01:15:20.180 and we are going to ignore federal authority, which they've been doing,

01:15:23.380 I don't understand why your prerequisite is that they have to fight themselves.

01:15:25.960 Like, the people in Seattle who took over and shut the police down

01:15:29.180 were largely politically aligned.

01:15:31.140 Wheeler himself came out and joined them in protests in Portland.

01:15:34.540 It was Portland, right?

01:15:35.400 He was with them as they were rioting and protesting and firebombing a federal building.

01:15:39.680 Yeah.

01:15:39.900 Like, why are they going to fight themselves?

01:15:42.320 I think you might be a little too focused on the fact that it's Washington and Seattle.

01:15:46.960 I'm just saying this is a theoretical hypothetical.

01:15:49.020 Why would any city fight?

01:15:50.920 It's like...

01:15:51.800 There's a couple of red states where they would fight our blue city. 0.68

01:15:55.300 You're saying like a protest in a city.

01:15:57.980 I'm not saying that this is a civil war.

01:15:59.520 I'm saying that things like this would need to happen to show, like, the sides of the reforming.

01:16:03.660 So when in a civil war did a city fight its own territory?

01:16:07.460 Like, when in a civil war did a...

01:16:10.180 Like, in the Spanish civil war, you had the nationalists and the Republicans,

01:16:13.080 and they controlled urban and rural areas.

01:16:15.100 When in that civil war did the nationalists in their own territory fight themselves?

01:16:19.280 I'm using the example of just saying that this would happen, is that it's creating a political revolution.

01:16:26.820 Okay, no, no, no.

01:16:28.760 We're bumping into a wall.

01:16:29.760 My point is this.

01:16:31.800 Let's pick any jurisdiction.

01:16:34.000 Let's call it the state of statehood.

01:16:35.700 It doesn't need to be anywhere.

01:16:37.040 The people who live in statehood overwhelmingly vote a certain way, have a certain ideology, and believe in it.

01:16:41.720 Why would it need to be that they fight themselves for it to be evidence of a civil war coming?

01:16:48.700 When in a civil war has an isolated jurisdiction of shared ideology decided to declare war in itself?

01:16:54.740 I was using the example, but I was...

01:16:56.800 Here's what I was trying to say.

01:16:58.320 So I'm going to take it back that we're focused on Seattle.

01:17:02.240 Washington's a very blue state.

01:17:03.300 I'm watching that of anything.

01:17:04.500 I'm saying any...

01:17:05.960 Why would any faction fight itself before a civil war is to begin?

01:17:09.520 They would be different factions.

01:17:12.640 That's what I was arguing.

01:17:13.820 Because let's say that it's left rising up against the federal government, and so it could be anywhere in this country.

01:17:19.660 I'm just pointing out that this is the left and saying that the federal government, maybe the state of Washington decides to go along with the left, or maybe they decide to go with the federal government.

01:17:28.540 I'm just pointing out that example, is that if it's one locality that rises up against the federal government for either the right or the left, there could be multiple other sides being formed afterwards, but they're rising up against the federal government.

01:17:43.920 It'd be like in the Syrian civil war, where initially they're rising up against the government, and then many other factions began to form.

01:17:49.780 Like in the Pacific Northwest, when I think it was something like 110 days, where far leftists were throwing explosives at the federal building surrounding it, and the building was shut down, federal authorities were trapped inside, Trump called in numerous different federal law enforcement, but the government of Portland, the local government, sided with the far left extremists who were firebombing a building.

01:18:09.800 Yeah, and that would be a sign that the local government is then siding with the left, that that escalated past that, and that they're trying to take over the entirety of Portland, and then Portland's city government is like, oh, we're siding with them.

01:18:20.640 They would have to choose whether they side with the left, but I want to put this out that I don't think this is likely.

01:18:26.080 I'm just saying that's a possible scenario.

01:18:27.500 So do you believe that if an ideological faction in a city started trying to take over or destroy a federal building in defiance of federal authority and fought with federal authorities and the state sided with them, would that be a civil war?

01:18:41.740 No, but it could be a sign of a possible civil war that arises.

01:18:45.140 That's happening elsewhere, and then that begins to escalate into they're trying to take over the city.

01:18:49.600 You think that would...

01:18:50.340 It would have to be taking over, like, Chaz in this incident, if there's, like, tons of Chaz that's taking over, and then Chaz tries to expand to take over the city, I would say that that's a warning sign of something that could happen with a civil war. 0.96

01:19:04.320 So if a large group of, say, leftists had an autonomous zone that they controlled, like the size of Chaz, and people that had already been killed, but if Chaz then started to expand, that makes you think maybe a civil war could happen.

01:19:16.680 Maybe if they're trying to take over the city and that they have many, many allies across the country and that there's a sizable part of the population that agrees with them.

01:19:27.060 People were misled into thinking these are just peaceful protesters.

01:19:30.980 But if they're just...

01:19:32.280 If you ask American people and they're like, do you support the left-wing autonomous or whatever they want to call themselves taking over the entire state of Washington and declaring themselves independent of the United States government?

01:19:42.720 And then, like, 20%, 30% of the population is like, yes.

01:19:47.040 Then you have a chance of that there's some type of secession or civil war happening.

01:19:51.180 But I don't believe this is happening.

01:19:53.160 And even with Chaz, that's a disturbing element that we could see more of. 0.66

01:19:57.160 But it's almost like the no-go zones that you see in Europe with the, you know, Islamic neighborhoods just sprouting up and it's being ruled effectively by Sharia law. 1.00

01:20:07.660 Instead, we have leftist no-go zones.

01:20:10.460 Well, they're very different.

01:20:11.340 You could see something of that sort.

01:20:13.800 I've gone to some of these areas.

01:20:14.940 I went to Sweden.

01:20:15.720 I went to, I think I was in, where was I, Belgium?

01:20:19.300 I went to Europe.

01:20:20.480 I went to France.

01:20:22.060 I went to Germany.

01:20:23.720 And these no-go zones are nothing like what we saw with Chaz Chop.

01:20:28.240 Chaz, they murdered people. 1.00

01:20:30.400 They unloaded.

01:20:31.260 There was one story where they unloaded for about 10 minutes hundreds of rounds into a white SUV just because it was a violation of their territory.

01:20:38.200 And they said you were, they assumed it was, they were told it was white supremacists.

01:20:41.080 Well, I mean, there are gang-run territories where they kill a lot of people in America. 0.76

01:20:44.720 Not like that.

01:20:44.920 Not like that.

01:20:45.480 I'm from Chicago.

01:20:46.240 And I can tell you what Chicago is like.

01:20:47.960 So having a conversation, well, actually, I don't want to put anybody in danger.

01:20:51.540 Are you saying that a gang-run territories of a rival gang goes in there that they won't shoot up the vehicle?

01:20:56.180 So you're saying that a regular person walking into the Chaz is a rival gang?

01:21:00.300 I'm saying, I'm not saying that.

01:21:02.080 What I'm saying is that there are territories, even in America, which are gang-run.

01:21:05.540 Let me tell you that even in Chicago, the idea that there would be a sectioned-off area with security guards, barriers, and a police station that was completely taken over, and that men with rifles would unload for 10 minutes hundreds of rounds into SUVs, and there were other people who were murdered.

01:21:20.440 In Chicago, that's unheard of.

01:21:22.660 In Chicago, you have honor, I would call it respect and honor killings, where you disrespect me, they go get revenge.

01:21:30.740 A lot of people think it's gang-related.

01:21:32.380 It's really about disrespect.

01:21:34.160 Guy goes on social media and smack-talks a guy, says his girl's ugly, he's going to go to your house and there's going to be a drive-by.

01:21:39.240 It's jurisdiction-less.

01:21:40.600 Certainly, gangs have territory where they sell things like this, but that's why I give a warning to a lot of people in Chicago.

01:21:46.360 You're not safe anywhere in Chicago.

01:21:48.100 There's no jurisdictional boundaries.

01:21:49.560 When the Chaz Chop happened, stay out of the Chaz Chop. 1.00

01:21:52.880 There's a barrier where guys are standing there with rifles from the John Brown Gun Club or whatever, and these people kill the guy.

01:22:00.420 They killed the guy.

01:22:02.760 There was a young black man who was shot and killed.

01:22:04.460 We don't know why.

01:22:04.900 And then there was the white SUV incident.

01:22:06.440 There were a few others.

01:22:08.100 This is 8-8, like substantially different from gangland violence.

01:22:13.260 It is different.

01:22:13.860 I mean, the fact that they do have border guards, but there is a way that there is a different law governing those areas than what's the normal law.

01:22:21.160 And it would be even the same in Sharia law.

01:22:24.540 And there could be something of these sorts where I think if they actually had armed border guards and tried to do an exact replica of Chaz where it's like they are – there's in some ways an understanding that they're separate from the rest of the city and they're separate from the country. 0.85

01:22:40.520 There would be more of a force put on them to end that.

01:22:45.100 But there could be these areas where essentially the left have their own autonomous commune and that they're running it the way they see fit, and then police are just – no, not to go there.

01:22:54.980 So when I went to Sweden, they loved it when I was – when I first arrived, I met with this Green Party politician who's like a liberal, and I said, tell me what's going on in this country.

01:23:04.560 And he laid out his case.

01:23:06.160 They loved it.

01:23:06.680 Huffington Post said, you know, Tim Pool does a great report.

01:23:09.180 And then because I was doing journalism, I said, now let's go to these areas they say are bad.

01:23:14.320 And boy, did they lose their mind when I went to Rinkaby.

01:23:17.020 They had no problem when I went to Rosengard where I saw a bunch of beautiful apartments.

01:23:21.200 There were many Muslims.

01:23:22.460 People were waving and smiling.

01:23:23.540 I went to the grocery store.

01:23:24.240 I bought food.

01:23:24.660 I feared nothing.

01:23:25.820 I went to an apartment, met a young couple, and I said, this apartment is better than most apartments in Chicago.

01:23:31.880 And they were all laughing, saying, you see, all this is overblown.

01:23:34.960 Then I went to Rinkaby, and this is a no-go zone in nowhere near how bad Chaz was.

01:23:41.840 But this is the extreme moment.

01:23:44.020 What happened was Somali migrants, refugees, came into the country in the 90s.

01:23:47.500 They had kids.

01:23:48.020 Those kids were born in these enclaves.

01:23:51.480 When they all started moving to the country, they moved to this one area called Rinkaby, which is a shopping center and neighborhood.

01:23:57.660 And it became dominant by Somali refugees.

01:24:02.320 They had kids.

01:24:03.180 Those kids were born in Sweden.

01:24:04.620 They are Swedish.

01:24:05.540 But they are called immigrants by white Swedish people because they're not white Swedes. 0.96

01:24:11.120 And Swedish people are extremely racist. 0.99

01:24:13.560 Maybe race isn't the right word, but they're xenophobic. 0.99

01:24:17.340 I don't know if I like that word.

01:24:18.960 Let me just put it this way.

01:24:19.640 They're extremely...

01:24:20.400 No, they're extremely prejudiced against anybody who is not a native-born white sweet who speaks their language perfectly.

01:24:26.280 So if you are, like, the encounter that I had with a lot of people who were dual citizens, whose parents were Swedish, and then they moved there later, what I found was a lot of people being like, you know, it's really hard for me here because I have an American accent when I speak Swedish.

01:24:39.800 So they don't hire me.

01:24:40.780 They don't want me around.

01:24:41.900 They talk down to me.

01:24:43.800 So what happens then is Rinkaby, these young men who are Somali, grow up in a society that treats them like others, but they have no home in Somalia.

01:24:51.880 When you go there, nothing happens.

01:24:53.960 If you go there and you're filming, for instance, there's kind of panic because you're a white person.

01:24:59.180 This is what happened to us.

01:24:59.860 Coming with a camera, coming into their neighborhood, and they view themselves as not attached to the state because the police are white people who treat them like they're not Swedish.

01:25:07.920 So they've just formed an isolated enclave, which acts as its own internal state.

01:25:12.840 But you can go there with no problem.

01:25:14.420 I went bowling.

01:25:15.300 They had small pin bowling.

01:25:16.380 I don't know what it's called.

01:25:17.160 Went there.

01:25:17.560 Went to the grocery store.

01:25:18.220 Nobody had a problem.

01:25:19.680 There was no wear of veil.

01:25:21.140 There was no Muslim.

01:25:21.820 Nothing.

01:25:22.420 It was when you came in acting like you were part of the institutions outside that people would start yelling and saying, what are you doing here?

01:25:29.220 Chaz Chop was completely different.

01:25:30.560 You couldn't even go inside.

01:25:31.880 The George Floyd autonomous zone.

01:25:32.940 You couldn't enter these places without passing through a barricade in armed groups.

01:25:36.540 If you went, for instance, in Atlanta, there were shootings.

01:25:41.380 So there was a big difference between there's a group of people that have a dramatically different worldview and view of the state and what the left did when they took these places over.

01:25:49.580 Yeah, I agree.

01:25:50.320 But I mean, the only comparison I was just saying that they have an isolated internal state where they see themselves as something separate from the rest of society, which we already sort of have those places in America.

01:26:01.080 But you could have more that it's ideologically purposed for the left and they're taking over neighborhoods.

01:26:06.200 You effectively said that you will not believe that there's a civil war until you see a civil war.

01:26:11.260 So I don't see the point of this discussion because if you're not going to accept any amount of evidence that there will be a civil war until there is a civil war, there's nothing I can say to you.

01:26:20.220 Okay.

01:26:20.620 I'd agree with that.

01:26:21.400 Yeah, I would say I would only say I think there's a civil war going on if there's a civil war going on.

01:26:28.180 That's usually the standard with people when a civil war happens is that they're seeing the fighting and they're before us.

01:26:36.480 I mean, we weren't discussing this about the civil war where they're insisting we're not in a civil war until Fort Sumter is fired upon.

01:26:42.200 You can predict this stuff, though, and you know that's not the way any civil war works.

01:26:45.580 And the thing with the 1,000 deaths is I'm open to being wrong.

01:26:49.320 And the reason I would be wrong is that, oh, first of all, I can just objectively be wrong.

01:26:53.240 There's not going to be a civil war.

01:26:53.700 Well, what would you say is a better civil war to look at besides the American civil war?

01:26:59.000 Yes.

01:27:00.240 So there's ways to study these conflicts, and I've studied basically every single revolution, and there's a variety of metrics used to predict them in advance.

01:27:11.320 And so the four parallels I look to the most are the English Civil War, the French Revolution, the fall of the Roman Republic, and the American Civil War.

01:27:22.520 And for each of them, if the war starts, there's going to be way more than 1,000 deaths.

01:27:28.580 1,000 I don't really like.

01:27:30.060 I stand by the bet because I made it with Andrew Heaton a year ago.

01:27:33.000 But if there's going to be a war, 1,000 deaths is what happens in a single wing of a single battle because if you look at all those conflicts, English Civil War, American Civil War, French Revolution, fall of the Roman Republic, the society was at peace.

01:27:49.160 The political switch gets flipped, and then there's war.

01:27:52.100 There's not the gradual buildup.

01:27:53.620 It's everything and then nothing.

01:27:55.060 And so the thing you're looking at where there's a conflict and then it gradually gets worse, that's not how any of this happens.

01:28:01.480 It's their cliff.

01:28:05.900 So you think it's –

01:28:06.860 Like Eric Pritt said.

01:28:07.760 Exactly, yeah.

01:28:08.480 He said in his experience in modern contexts, everyone he's worked with says one day everything's normal.

01:28:13.060 The next day it's war.

01:28:14.660 Exactly.

01:28:15.060 But even with the English Civil War in Rome and Republic, there's a very – well, you've brought this up.

01:28:20.620 It's elite-driven.

01:28:22.140 And so you would have to see the fault lines within these elite institutions that would go to war with each other.

01:28:26.660 Like the Democrats trying to arrest Donald Trump and Trump threatening –

01:28:28.980 Yeah.

01:28:29.420 If you think that the Republicans and Democrats as they exist right now could muster the forces to have a civil war, then that would be a point.

01:28:37.380 But I just don't see that with a Republican.

01:28:38.980 What does that mean, muster the forces?

01:28:40.240 That they could tell their people to commit acts of violence and kill other people.

01:28:44.180 I don't think the Republicans and Democrats could do that, no. 0.66

01:28:47.900 But when – do you think that like world leaders are like, young man, go kill those people?

01:28:53.820 Or do you think they're like, I need you to guard this territory, don't let anyone pass?

01:28:56.880 I don't think they could get them to guard this territory.

01:28:59.560 I mean nobody's going to – if you're like listening to a lot of these Republican leaders, I mean besides Trump, but imagine – you know, I'd have to think of – I don't want to say Lindsey Graham because people would be never say – but let's even say Josh Hawley trying to get people to do out there and do that.

01:29:13.680 I don't think so.

01:29:14.180 Even with – on the Democrat side, I couldn't see a – what does do that mean?

01:29:17.900 What?

01:29:18.240 I'll be back in the moment.

01:29:18.640 You said Josh Hawley –

01:29:19.720 He used the bathroom.

01:29:20.700 To go use – to go say, okay, guard this territory.

01:29:24.920 We need you.

01:29:25.840 Here's a gun.

01:29:26.920 Guard this territory.

01:29:27.880 I don't think they could get their followers to quite do that.

01:29:30.880 Why would it be Josh Hawley?

01:29:31.860 When is he in command of the military?

01:29:32.380 I'm just saying this is a hypothetical Republican leader.

01:29:34.160 But it's also – it's a nonsensical one that has nothing to do with military.

01:29:40.360 The thing is it would be Republican leaders.

01:29:42.480 If you're looking at rival institutions –

01:29:44.000 Like a governor of a state ordering –

01:29:45.420 It could be a governor of a state even if it's –

01:29:47.600 Ordering his National Guard to say –

01:29:48.960 Like Bill Lee in Tennessee deciding to say – yeah, it could be National Guard.

01:29:52.780 But even with the National Guard, when they go down to the border, it's mainly a photo op.

01:29:57.900 It's not actually that they're –

01:29:59.540 We're arguing two different things.

01:30:01.080 Okay.

01:30:01.200 The argument you made is no one's – elites will not be able to give orders to troops to do that.

01:30:07.640 And I'm asking what that is. 0.97

01:30:10.080 Oh, to kill. 0.99

01:30:11.240 I actually – 1.00

01:30:12.380 I actually –

01:30:13.240 You can even see that in the border. 0.96

01:30:14.800 In what context do you think these conflicts are, okay, troops, we're going to go have you kill people? 0.98

01:30:21.480 No, but they would have to – they're there, and then it's like, should we shoot to kill? 0.96

01:30:25.480 And then the governor is like, yes. 0.74

01:30:27.740 They'd have to have the – 0.60

01:30:28.860 And that happened in Texas.

01:30:30.660 They do not have an order to shoot to kill.

01:30:32.320 In Texas, this is what was so scary.

01:30:34.520 As I said, they were armed with the right to defend themselves from lethal force.

01:30:38.760 And I think that – wasn't there a story where they fired across the border or something?

01:30:41.480 There's been a few stories where they were fired, but even –

01:30:43.460 I remember the story where they – there was a guardsman who –

01:30:47.920 The details are flurry, flurry, flurry.

01:30:51.480 But I remember this.

01:30:53.120 But even with this scenario where if they got challenged by border patrol, they're going to back down.

01:30:59.180 I don't think that right now the elites at either the Democrat or Republican level have the capacity to say the order to kill.

01:31:07.320 I think your view of military and history is like movie-esque.

01:31:12.160 How is it movie-esque? 0.99

01:31:13.340 Like Cobra Commander sitting in there being like, send my troops to go kill them!

01:31:18.060 It's not Cobra – 0.75

01:31:18.880 That's never what happens.

01:31:19.760 What I'm saying is that they have the troops there, and then the chain of command asks, do we have the order to kill?

01:31:26.260 And then the governor at this point in the leadership is not going to give that order.

01:31:30.140 They have to go through the chain of command with the assumption that they would have that order if they are challenged by either the federal government or some left-wing militia or something.

01:31:40.100 I don't see that at this point.

01:31:42.380 I think that there is –

01:31:44.140 When they have come up to the precipice of having a point where they challenge either the federal government or challenge the other side, say January 6th, or anywhere else, they back down.

01:31:55.660 And I don't – you don't really have that capacity for violence.

01:31:58.960 And even when he's bringing up the English Civil War, that's true. 1.00

01:32:01.100 It was an elite-driven thing.

01:32:02.480 Why do cops kill people? 1.00

01:32:03.520 Are they given the order to kill?

01:32:05.140 But they have – it's different from police officers.

01:32:09.220 So you –

01:32:11.180 How?

01:32:12.320 They would have – the scenario you're describing, okay, let's say we send out the National Guard to an event, and maybe there's –

01:32:19.480 What is the National Guard?

01:32:20.320 Hold on.

01:32:20.920 See, once again, I think you're making like a lot of movie assumptions.

01:32:24.040 There's not movie assumptions.

01:32:25.560 Yes, it is.

01:32:25.960 So let's take a look at – let's say the Democrat-Republicans.

01:32:28.960 Right now, Trump has been arrested several times.

01:32:31.020 Yes, he has.

01:32:31.440 He's got 78 charges, I believe.

01:32:32.980 They're trying to put him in jail for hundreds of years, and he's so far complied.

01:32:35.880 What happens if Trump wins the presidency, and then the state of New York says, not, you're going to jail?

01:32:40.620 New York has determined you've committed –

01:32:42.100 Bragg says, you've committed these crimes.

01:32:44.400 You are being sentenced.

01:32:45.660 The sentencing is delayed.

01:32:46.720 And at the federal level, Trump says, I'm not going to jail.

01:32:48.480 And Secret Service says, whatever you say, Commander-in-Chief.

01:32:51.500 And then they say, then we are going to send authorities to arrest you, and we're going to file that.

01:32:56.800 Do you think that the federal government would allow New York state authorities to enter any other jurisdiction?

01:33:01.600 Absolutely not.

01:33:02.220 Federal authority, Trump's state authority.

01:33:03.720 So they would just tell them, pal, stand.

01:33:05.400 Right.

01:33:05.600 So then there would be no constitutional battle.

01:33:07.920 What would happen?

01:33:08.320 Would Trump go to New York?

01:33:12.140 No.

01:33:13.300 No, no.

01:33:14.020 He could go to New York because he's like, I'm the head of the state.

01:33:17.100 You're not challenging me to the head of the state.

01:33:18.780 I'm the – he would even – they've had those battles over whether the president represents the Constitution.

01:33:23.440 He's the constitutional order.

01:33:24.860 And federal authority, Trump's state authority here.

01:33:27.240 He could go to New York and tell them to try that.

01:33:30.400 And New York is going to back down on that scenario.

01:33:32.340 They're not going to try to arrest the president because they know how that's going to look on the world stage.

01:33:35.640 They're not going to want to have China, Russia look at a random state arresting the president for paying a porn star.

01:33:43.440 They're not going to have that threat to the federal order.

01:33:45.660 So first, the several things brought up here is when you said they would not do that, we have to consider what the law enforcement apparatus that exists in this country is.

01:33:55.420 It ranges from – there's a wide range of components of force.

01:33:58.860 You have sheriffs and deputies.

01:34:00.800 You have marshals. 0.82

01:34:02.100 You have federal authorities.

01:34:03.120 So the question is if Donald Trump – the Democrats and the Republicans are currently at odds.

01:34:08.540 They're trying to put Trump in prison.

01:34:10.160 There is a constitutional crisis right now that Trump is actually convicted and has not yet faced sentencing.

01:34:16.500 And it's now looking like he's going to win in 11 days.

01:34:20.000 The polls and betting odds are such that Trump may actually do so well on election day that we don't need six days.

01:34:26.640 They may swamp the vote.

01:34:28.500 New York is not going to just announce they're getting rid of these criminal charges.

01:34:31.440 They will still sentence him.

01:34:32.580 I don't know what happens after that.

01:34:33.920 I agree you're likely right that New York is not going to send troops or anybody to go arrest Donald Trump.

01:34:37.480 But the issue is not that New York or – that Democrats or Republicans are going to say I hereby declare send in the troops, kill people. 0.85

01:34:47.660 That's nonsense.

01:34:48.800 What happens more likely is that jurisdictions controlled by the federal government will say we are going to follow the rules and the chain of command.

01:34:56.820 And jurisdictions controlled by Democrats with their authority, National Guard, police or otherwise, will say we're going to follow the orders of our leadership.

01:35:04.620 There's not likely to be a scenario – or I should say there is likely to be many scenarios in which the federal government may try to instruct local authorities who say we don't answer to you.

01:35:14.840 We answered it to the governor, not to the federal government.

01:35:17.040 States are sovereign.

01:35:18.080 In which case if New York says Donald – there is absolutely a potential where New York says Trump has been convicted and must go to jail.

01:35:25.020 He cannot pardon himself at the state level.

01:35:27.900 And then California and Illinois and other – and Washington and Oregon say if Donald Trump sets foot in our states, we will enforce the law.

01:35:36.200 It's not personal.

01:35:37.340 It's not that we hate Donald Trump.

01:35:38.480 It's that the law applies to everyone and no one is above the law and he's been convicted before he was president.

01:35:42.940 Getting elected does not change the fact that he has to go to jail.

01:35:45.560 Let's say he goes to Washington and they say, Mr. President, will you peacefully come?

01:35:49.720 You're under arrest to be extradited to New York for your sentencing and jail term.

01:35:54.200 Trump's going to have to say no to that.

01:35:55.920 The states probably – and that's why I don't agree with Rudyard on 1,000 deaths – will be like, there's no way we're going to try to send police to arrest Donald Trump.

01:36:03.900 Because – however, we are already asking – this is a question that is already being asked.

01:36:08.400 Donald Trump is under Secret Service protection and already there's a question of, what if Trump said he would not go to New York to stand trial?

01:36:15.880 We know that the trials are overtly political and none of them make sense.

01:36:18.540 I argue that Donald Trump, when he was in Florida and New York and Georgia issued these criminal charges, what Trump should have done is said, they are welcome to come to Florida and serve the paperwork.

01:36:30.540 I don't listen to TV reports and I do not respect a phone call to a lawyer about what is going on.

01:36:37.920 They can enforce the law as the law prescribes, knock on my door, deliver the warrant, and I will peacefully and gladly join them in answering to these charges.

01:36:45.880 That would put Ron DeSantis in a very serious position where he's going to have to determine whether or not his state authorities are going to abide by New York authorities to come and arrest the guy who's the frontrunner.

01:36:56.660 Trump instead says, I will go by peacefully at your request despite the fact your lack of ability to enforce this.

01:37:04.360 What happens after Trump wins – and this is reality.

01:37:07.340 Right now I'll say this.

01:37:08.460 Trump is convicted.

01:37:09.680 He is facing sentencing.

01:37:10.920 We don't know how this plays out and we can entertain normalcy and optimism bias.

01:37:16.640 New York just says, we don't care anymore.

01:37:19.320 We're done.

01:37:20.120 I really doubt that.

01:37:21.500 There is the next case where blue states and Democrats who have literally said Trump is Hitler, who's a despot, who's going to go round up and be Hitler, round up illegal migrants.

01:37:30.760 I'm sorry, refugees, they would call them. 1.00

01:37:32.080 And then what happens when you combine Donald Trump's efforts to deport 15 to 20 million illegal immigrants using the police and local military with the fact that the blue states already say he is a convicted felon who should be in prison.

01:37:44.780 Now they're going to say, as Jamie Raskin already stated this in February, Jamie Raskin said in a panel discussion live on YouTube, Donald Trump is ineligible to be president and we will block the certification on January 6, 2025.

01:38:00.260 There will be civil war conditions, he said.

01:38:02.680 Now imagine this scenario where Trump wins.

01:38:05.780 We see he wins.

01:38:06.900 He's handily won.

01:38:08.340 Democrats refuse to certify.

01:38:10.360 Kamala Harris counts the vote.

01:38:11.520 Who knows what she does? 1.00

01:38:12.200 Let's just say she goes, I understand that these Democrats are refusing to certify, but we still have a majority for certification.

01:38:19.200 Bang.

01:38:19.800 Trump is the president.

01:38:20.920 These Democrats then go to their states and say, not only is Trump a convicted felon who should be in prison, he's not even eligible to be president because of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

01:38:30.980 And he is illegally occupying the White House through administrative means.

01:38:34.380 And the Supreme Court is protecting him because they're his cronies that he installed.

01:38:37.840 You then end up with blue states saying if Donald Trump steps foot in this state, he will be arrested and extradited to New York where we have an agreement to send him.

01:38:46.400 That that that is all reality.

01:38:49.060 That's potentiality.

01:38:50.440 What we can say right now is we don't know what the blue states will do.

01:38:53.460 But it is true that Democrats have said they won't certify. 0.81

01:38:56.200 Trump is a felon and should be in prison. 0.84

01:38:58.880 How will blue states handle this worldview that Trump is Hitler, about to round up migrants and refugees, is illegally occupying the White House while ineligible, has stacked the Supreme Court and should be in prison? 0.98

01:39:12.060 How do they rectify that worldview while going?

01:39:14.560 We will do nothing.

01:39:15.340 Nothing will happen.

01:39:16.320 It seems to me an impossibility.

01:39:17.780 Now, it is possible that we don't see any formal governance like Newsom or Whitmer, whoever else, calling on their National Guard or sheriffs to go arrest Trump.

01:39:28.040 But I think it's entirely possible that you'll see volunteer fighters, people who are just like I'm here to uphold the rule of law in this country and keep my oath to the Constitution, which is Donald Trump is illegally occupying the White House.

01:39:41.200 And then the risk is if Trump goes to Michigan and militia forces that are aligned with Democrats say we're – Antifa is a better way to describe them.

01:39:49.780 The John Brown Gun Club, the Red Guard, et cetera, for Antifa's various factions, what do you have – Rose City, Antifa and these other wingnut factions may present such a threat that I would throw it back to what Rudyard said last week.

01:40:01.700 You're not seeing standing armies shooting each other.

01:40:04.040 You're seeing bombs going off in major cities.

01:40:06.400 And you rant over.

01:40:06.920 All right.

01:40:08.120 If that actually happened, I would say those are the conditions to set off a civil war.

01:40:11.860 But I'm highly doubtful.

01:40:13.600 But I do – if you set out that potentiality where they're like we will try to arrest Trump by any means necessary and they do have these militias and they even maybe want their own law enforcement to try to arrest them and they effectively try to kidnap the president.

01:40:28.100 No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

01:40:29.480 I said I don't see a potentiality where governance tries to arrest Donald Trump.

01:40:34.140 So, like, it's a possibility – I shouldn't say there's a potentiality.

01:40:37.580 There's a possibility that Newsom says Trump is a criminal if he steps foot here.

01:40:42.240 I really doubt it.

01:40:43.460 They're going to say we're not going to do this.

01:40:46.280 But what happens when you have – you already have John Brown Gun Club.

01:40:52.080 There's a guy that – one of these guys who asserted himself as Antifa and I believe he said John Brown Gun Club went to an ICE facility throwing Molotovs and shooting at ICE agents.

01:41:01.400 I believe it is very likely, terrifyingly so, that if Trump wins with the factors that are already true right now, Democrats have stated he's ineligible and will not certify.

01:41:13.040 Maybe they do certify, but they still say he's ineligible.

01:41:15.200 They've – the vice president went on TV at a press conference and said he is calling for generals like Hitler. 0.95

01:41:21.340 He's a fascist.

01:41:22.320 They believe he's going to round people up and put them in detention centers and concentration camps. 0.91

01:41:26.100 These are all facts.

01:41:27.080 These are what have been espoused by the Democrats in the media.

01:41:29.400 And Trump is a convicted felon who is facing sentencing.

01:41:32.500 With those factors in mind and the two assassination attempts on Trump already, the likelihood that if Trump goes to a Democrat jurisdiction, he will face extreme violence from roving factions of insurgency, terroristic violence, I believe is 100%.

01:41:46.960 You don't need Newsom to order the National Guard when you have roving bands of leftist extremists who believe Trump is Hitler and will do anything to stop him.

01:41:56.960 There's been two assassination attempts and one assassination plot, and it is – I would say it's fair to say confirmed that there are Iranian assassination teams going after Donald Trump.

01:42:06.620 Now, I would not say it's entirely impossible that that happens.

01:42:10.240 But, I mean, even with the assassination attempts, those are alone individuals not connected to any militias or any type of –

01:42:16.060 Well, hold on.

01:42:16.480 We don't know about crooks.

01:42:17.320 There's no official story.

01:42:18.120 Well, we'll figure it out.

01:42:20.120 For what it looks like now, it looks like some weirdo who tried to make a name for himself.

01:42:24.560 But it could be different.

01:42:25.380 We don't know.

01:42:25.800 So you could be right at the –

01:42:27.380 Well, I disagree.

01:42:29.400 But I would say this on the roving bands of violent extremists.

01:42:34.180 I mean, there has been a decline in that number of leftists.

01:42:36.940 Now, they could return with Trump back in office.

01:42:39.860 I mean, they were there during the Trump years.

01:42:43.480 Antifa was pretty violent.

01:42:44.680 They would shut down conferences.

01:42:46.280 And even what we were seeing a few years ago in 2022, you did have these Antifa guys out with AR-15s protecting Drag Queen Story Hour from protesters.

01:42:56.500 Obviously, they didn't need any protection.

01:42:58.200 So you could potentially see that.

01:43:00.180 But I don't think that that would be much of a threat to the federal government.

01:43:03.340 If they actually did try to revolt against the federal government, the federal government would put them down very quickly.

01:43:08.120 Even under Trump.

01:43:11.160 To be clear, your point of contention is that people wouldn't fight for this war.

01:43:18.280 I'm trying to put your argument –

01:43:19.320 Against the federal government?

01:43:21.080 Yeah, there wouldn't be that many people to fight.

01:43:22.500 I'm trying to put your argument in a spreadsheet.

01:43:24.060 So as I can see, your points of contention are people would not die in this war, firstly.

01:43:30.340 Secondly, that you would not accept evidence for there being a war until said war already starts.

01:43:34.880 Yes, I agree with – I agree.

01:43:37.040 Now, with the people dying, I mean, there are probably some people who would die, but not enough to make the – for the conditions you do want.

01:43:44.380 What are you basing that assessment off?

01:43:46.160 What are you basing it on?

01:43:46.660 I'm basing it on the assessment of American people right now.

01:43:49.120 I mean, American people, there's only about like 20% of young men who are even fit for military service.

01:43:54.780 Even with the amount of people who are most politically engaged, it's generally middle-aged people.

01:43:59.400 I mean, young men are probably the least politically engaged demographic in this country.

01:44:03.940 Now, some of them could be animated to fight, but I don't really – you don't really see that conditions at the moment.

01:44:09.400 And even at the elite level, you don't see people calling for that type of war.

01:44:13.900 And even in the – I know you don't like the American Civil War references, but even in the lead-up to the American Civil War, you had many of these Southern leaders of the caliber of John C. Calhoun, Jefferson Davis.

01:44:25.940 These were the titans of the South.

01:44:28.180 They were the leadership cast, and they were saying, we are willing to fight and die for our rights, and we are willing to separate for them.

01:44:34.740 You don't have those voices right now.

01:44:36.740 And even with the Spanish Civil War, if you want to bring up to a more recent conflict, you already had social turbulence in that country where the left had overthrown the monarchical government just a few years before, and the military was still not loyal to the current government, and the military had the instincts and the wherewithal to actually revolt against the civil government.

01:44:57.740 Now, I'd have to say who – in terms of who would be willing to do the fighting and organizing these people, I don't really see that at the elite level.

01:45:08.080 I mean, there are certainly voices online that may say this, but I don't see this.

01:45:12.080 I don't see the leadership cast going along with this.

01:45:15.320 I don't see that.

01:45:16.340 I don't see a significant mass amount of people who are willing to fight and die for this.

01:45:21.360 They may say that online, but when it actually came to the time to fight, I don't think they would do that.

01:45:26.220 I am part of the demographic you're describing, and I know that demographic very closely, and there is a lot of young, white, right-wing men who would happily die in a war.

01:45:38.220 And the reason I say that is that we're at a point where that demographic is so screwed over by society that it's the best option where if you – and I've been involved in the incel revolution.

01:45:50.820 I made a video on the incel revolution.

01:45:52.720 You were involved.

01:45:54.020 You're on video.

01:45:54.900 Okay, we found the leader.

01:45:56.460 In that video, people – it's been memed to hell, and people take it to me as something I didn't actually mean, where when I talked about that video, I don't think there's actually going to be people who call themselves incels who launch a revolution in order to get laid.

01:46:12.280 I think we're going to have this civil war crisis, and both sides of the civil war will be fought by sexually frustrated young men. 0.52

01:46:19.500 He's completely right.

01:46:20.740 So the – and this is true of all conflicts.

01:46:24.260 Men who have families don't want to risk their families. 0.60

01:46:27.400 Men who have nothing have nothing to lose. 0.90

01:46:29.820 Hence, what you see with Antifa is a bunch of childless men and women who are – I mean, a lot of them are like 40.

01:46:36.240 They have no ties to anything.

01:46:38.440 So risk themselves is just a choice they make.

01:46:41.080 Yeah.

01:46:41.220 On the right, you don't see mass protests because guys are like, yo, I've got kids to feed.

01:46:45.040 I've got to go to work.

01:46:45.980 Yeah.

01:46:46.540 Now, that's a defining difference between the right and left is the right – the reason why we don't – yeah, as you said, people – we have stuff to lose.

01:46:53.200 People don't – and that's even what happened with the J6 people. 1.00

01:46:55.360 They lost their home.

01:46:56.160 They lost their family.

01:46:56.800 They lost their job.

01:46:57.360 They lost everything over that protest.

01:46:59.160 There are two demographics of right-wingers, and people forget that the latter exists, and they think only at the first.

01:47:05.420 And when I talk to older people, they'll say, oh, yeah, the young people who will go hard and they'll sacrifice for the cause among the young are the leftists, and the leftists are the ones who will die in battle, and the rightists won't.

01:47:16.560 I'm thinking, what planet do you live on?

01:47:18.840 Where if you – if I am a Zoomer, I know many Zoomers.

01:47:22.280 Leftist Zoomers are completely anxious.

01:47:24.720 They're completely incapable of doing anything.

01:47:26.520 And you look at Chaz, you look at the Columbia protests.

01:47:30.160 In the Columbia protests, they put up this whiteboard saying you can't drink, you can't have sex, you can't swear, you can't misgender any people.

01:47:37.300 That's not an army that fights a war.

01:47:39.200 Among young right-wing white men, there is that demographic because they've been completely screwed over by DEI hiring. 0.58

01:47:46.940 They can't – they have no social mobility.

01:47:49.660 Two-thirds of men under 30 are single.

01:47:52.220 One-third of men under 30 are virgins.

01:47:54.000 So you have this huge demographic of basically young white men who are completely screwed over by society, and there's no feedback mechanism for them because society doesn't even acknowledge their issues. 0.60

01:48:05.140 So for them, a revolution is a strategically accurate decision to end at because it's their group self-interest that cooperates, and they're completely left out of any other form of power equation.

01:48:15.960 And that's always what starts wars.

01:48:19.280 Yeah.

01:48:19.860 I totally agree that they have these problems, and they are definitely angry and alienated.

01:48:24.320 But they're so far not taking the streets, and they're not being organized.

01:48:28.420 I mean, they're – it's almost lone wolves out there with this.

01:48:33.180 And there is a certain demographic among them, but also you have to see is, like, how many of them are there.

01:48:38.720 There's certainly a lot of them.

01:48:40.440 How many of them are there of their generation?

01:48:42.500 There's also their same demographic that's vaguely right-leaning.

01:48:46.320 This term I've come up with is called fan-duel Americans. 0.54

01:48:49.620 And what these people – they're probably going to vote for Trump if they wake up in time.

01:48:54.120 They might be hungover on Tuesday.

01:48:55.960 But they don't really care that much about politics.

01:48:59.020 They're vaguely right-leaning, but what they mainly care about is distractions and amusements.

01:49:02.900 And they have, like, some fairly right-leaning instincts.

01:49:05.400 You know, they like the troops.

01:49:06.880 They get mad if people don't stand for the anthem and this type of things.

01:49:10.180 But they're not that political.

01:49:11.740 And there's, like, a huge demographic of those people.

01:49:14.340 But I don't see those people wanting to fight and die.

01:49:17.240 Now, I'm sure there are young right-wingers.

01:49:19.860 If you put them in a situation, they would.

01:49:22.020 But there's no one putting them in that situation.

01:49:24.160 There's nobody organizing them.

01:49:25.740 And they're not taking the streets as is.

01:49:28.260 They don't really have much of a physical presence in the world, which is different from Antifa.

01:49:33.600 Antifa was always out there and showing themselves out in the real world.

01:49:37.500 Meanwhile, the young right-wingers, which is generally smart because society and the system would come down on them much harder than Antifa, they don't turn out on the streets.

01:49:46.740 So I just don't—maybe if there becomes a critical mass of them and they eventually take to the streets, maybe there is a younger J6 after if Trump loses. 0.88

01:49:59.460 I mean, maybe, but I don't see that happening.

01:50:02.260 You've already said you're not going to change.

01:50:03.800 You're basically—you won't see it till you believe it.

01:50:06.340 Or you won't believe it till you see it.

01:50:07.840 So I don't know what I could say.

01:50:09.320 If there's a Fort Sumter event, that's basically—it doesn't have to be exactly like Fort Sumter, but there's essentially—everyone agrees that this is a breaking point.

01:50:19.380 There's now violence being committed against—between the two sides.

01:50:23.480 Right.

01:50:23.940 So the challenge is what I think Rudyard and I are making the argument of is we don't know when the Civil War will start, what it will look like.

01:50:29.840 He thinks a thousand people will die, and your position is it will not start at all, but if it happens, then I'll believe it could happen.

01:50:37.620 Yeah.

01:50:38.400 I mean, yeah.

01:50:39.180 Doesn't that seem like it?

01:50:40.160 But I don't think it's going to happen.

01:50:41.980 But, I mean—

01:50:42.720 I mean, like, we can look at weather patterns and say we might get a hurricane, and then no hurricane happens.

01:50:45.940 But I'm even looking at the patterns and the lead-up.

01:50:50.240 We're not heading to a Civil War, is my point.

01:50:51.940 To be fair, you don't think that the Trump sentencing and the refusal to certify are potentialities of Civil War?

01:51:00.560 Or, like, our second—

01:51:01.680 So, let's say a depression forms off of West Africa.

01:51:06.380 Do our forecasters say, there's no hurricane until I see a hurricane?

01:51:09.420 They say the chance of a hurricane is 6%.

01:51:11.780 Yeah, or if you wanted me to give percentage chances of this—

01:51:15.520 That's the point.

01:51:17.140 Of those leading to Civil War, I'd give you 1%.

01:51:21.440 I'd say that I would give that.

01:51:24.000 But you're basically making the same argument that, despite the historic parallels,

01:51:28.320 there is nothing where you would make a forecast.

01:51:32.300 I wouldn't say that.

01:51:33.900 I'm just saying that if when a Civil War happens and I can declare it a Civil War is when it actually occurs. 0.71

01:51:39.440 What I always find fascinating in these conversations, especially when I had—

01:51:42.840 I mean, by forecasting, but I'm saying the forecast that I'm making is that it does not show Civil War.

01:51:48.360 I mean, we could say that a hurricane could theoretically happen, but if the weather conditions aren't there, then we're not having a hurricane.

01:51:54.480 The weather conditions for a Civil War exist right now, but I would call it, like, a tropical depression in the Atlantic.

01:52:00.760 See, I don't agree with that.

01:52:01.740 I would say the—here's what I would say.

01:52:03.560 I would say the conditions don't exist.

01:52:06.120 So we're having—

01:52:07.400 When in American history was the frontrunner for the presidency a pending sentencing for criminal charges—

01:52:16.900 All this is unprecedented, but if you look at the conditions on the ground, we are not at the point of it elevating the Civil War.

01:52:22.840 What would the conditions be then? Because we asked, you said, there's none.

01:52:27.000 What do you mean conditions aren't there?

01:52:28.280 Rudyard asked you, what are the conditions on the ground that would lead you to believe there is a potential Civil War?

01:52:34.200 And you said, not until Civil War happens.

01:52:36.140 No, that's not what I said.

01:52:38.240 He said, you will not say that there's a Civil War until you see it, which is, yes. 0.92

01:52:43.480 But what I was saying, if you're looking at conditions, there would have to be mass or there would have to be extreme economic poverty or extreme economic conditions that are making people starve.

01:52:56.840 Second is that you're seeing at least some type of low-level violence, the modern equivalent of bleeding cans that's already happening, or something, and that there's a weak state and it's—

01:53:10.480 Okay, go.

01:53:11.020 Number one, you said extreme poverty.

01:53:13.960 Okay, Rudyard.

01:53:15.540 Are there examples of Civil War in which there was not extreme poverty, or is it extreme poverty a requirement?

01:53:19.820 American—last American Civil War, we weren't in extreme poverty.

01:53:23.160 There was significantly more social mobility in the previous Civil War than the current one, and we had significantly lower inequality.

01:53:29.820 Yeah, almost no one was starving at the last Civil War.

01:53:33.020 Do you reject that?

01:53:34.860 I'm just saying this is one of the conditions.

01:53:36.860 Well, he just said—he said the American Civil War—

01:53:38.440 No, and yeah, no, it's actually absolutely true that we didn't have the type of poverty.

01:53:41.720 So that would not be a prerequisite for Civil War.

01:53:43.040 We definitely had more poverty at that time, but in comparison to the rest of the world, no, we had much greater abundance.

01:53:50.840 So that's not a prerequisite then, because civil wars have happened without extreme poverty.

01:53:53.720 It's a—let me go over the other conditions.

01:53:57.120 Okay, but one thing is definitely a weak state, or if you're wanting to fight against—if we had the—if the state would have to significantly weaken from what it is right now to have a civil war at this point, because the state is way too—

01:54:11.100 What was the second—so the first point is in contest.

01:54:14.780 Second point is that you're having low levels of violence either between non-state actors in the state or between non-state actors that spills out of control that the state can't control, which would also require a weakened state.

01:54:27.600 Could you describe a threshold of violence that is quantifiable so that we could say yes or no to this point?

01:54:34.440 Like, is there a certain number of deaths?

01:54:35.200 You would have levels of violence that were dozens are dying, and it's—like, people are shooting each other.

01:54:42.160 Like, I would even say if, like, the conditions of Weimar Germany in, like, 1932, where they were—where the communists and the Nazis were getting into gun battles, you were—you—and there was also the fear that they would have to deploy the military to stifle it, you definitely had the civil war conditions.

01:54:57.140 So, Bleeding Kansas, you said, correct?

01:54:59.720 It would be a Bleeding Kansas-like event where two sides are using lethal force against each other.

01:55:04.660 Do you know what the historical academic term for what Bleeding Kansas was?

01:55:09.460 What do you mean? A civil war?

01:55:11.260 No. Civil strife. It is—in academia—you don't have to agree with academia—Bleeding Kansas is called civil strife. The civil rights movement was also called civil strife.

01:55:22.060 Civil strife is the precursor to civil war. And there is an academic threshold by which they believe civil strife has begun.

01:55:29.700 Do you think civil strife is upon us now?

01:55:32.800 Don't ask me. According to academics, the answer is yes.

01:55:35.300 Well, what are the standards that are used?

01:55:36.920 Seven deaths—70 deaths per year related to political causes.

01:55:40.720 The 70 deaths that they would say are these maniacs who go to, like, a Dollar General and shoot people.

01:55:46.200 But I would not claim that—

01:55:46.740 That's not my opinion. 1.00

01:55:47.380 A lot of the academic standards that they have, the rules, you would have to agree that a lot of the stupid shootings of these morons that they claim is white supremacist violence when it's just some maniac doing what is the equivalent to a school shooting is going to a Dollar General and saying it's political violence. 0.99

01:56:01.960 I don't trust their standard for what claims is political violence. 0.99

01:56:05.820 I think the—when they say it's like white supremacy, clearly that's an absurdity because it describes nothing.

01:56:11.560 But when Rudyard mentions that there are young white men with no upward mobility who have become sexually frustrated and otherwise, I guess, dejected, they decide to act out violence. 0.55

01:56:22.220 Yeah, but most of them are not.

01:56:26.040 Nearly all of them are not.

01:56:27.640 What do you mean?

01:56:28.820 I mean, what—besides, like, one every, like, year going on a school shooting or of some sort, what other acts of violence that they're committing?

01:56:37.280 They're not taking the streets.

01:56:38.260 They're not organizing.

01:56:39.300 That's not Bleeding Kansas either.

01:56:43.180 Bleeding Kansas?

01:56:43.600 You're saying the civil strife, but, okay, we're leading to the standards of civil strife.

01:56:48.720 What are these young men who are angry or sexually frustrated—

01:56:52.280 Let's go back to your example of Bleeding Kansas. 0.63

01:56:54.200 It was not a bunch of young men marching to the streets.

01:56:57.100 Correct.

01:56:57.980 It was two sides organizing militias to fight and kill each other in a territory to gain political control.

01:57:04.020 Towards the end of it, like in the beginning, John Brown just went and killed people.

01:57:07.480 Yeah, and they were organizing militias.

01:57:10.080 And also they had the border roofians that Missouri was sending over to kill abolitionist settlers. 0.99

01:57:15.020 I mean, and to take political control.

01:57:17.640 But I'm just saying, what conditions do you have of civil strife besides that there's these academics looking at random mass shootings that some maniac claims that there's a political motivation for as a sign that there's civil strife?

01:57:32.280 By all means, I accept you argue their definition is ill-fitted.

01:57:35.760 That's not the point I'm making.

01:57:36.640 The point I'm making is academics have said, wow, we're in civil strife.

01:57:39.220 So by all means, if your point is I disagree with them, fair point, I accept that. 0.79

01:57:42.680 I'm not here to argue that the academic definition of civil strife is right or wrong.

01:57:46.360 I don't know what you think, Richard.

01:57:48.220 Oh, I don't care what the academics say.

01:57:50.160 I don't think it fundamentally matters.

01:57:51.780 I think we're all in agreement on that.

01:57:53.480 So the second point you made as a prerequisite was violence to a certain degree of people shooting each other.

01:58:00.240 And you don't think that's...

01:58:01.020 Let me go over...

01:58:01.820 I know we have a little bit of a time, but all the prerequisites.

01:58:04.340 These are not all absolutely required, as I need to go back and say.

01:58:08.680 But it's also you have to have elite institutions that are hostile to each other and are fighting for political power in a way that is like English Civil War between Parliament and the monarch, or even the Spanish Civil War between the civil government and the old forces that favored the more right-wing form of governance they had before.

01:58:26.600 Or you would have to have hostile elite forces that are willing to fight and kill each other, which now with the United States, if you look at the institutions, pretty much most of them are committed to some form of unity, even with the GOP.

01:58:38.360 Trump might not be on the same platform with the rest of the GOP, but the GOP, the Democrats, the military, the police, every important institution in America would agree on unity, even state governors.

01:58:54.500 Well, we do have a time constraint here.

01:58:57.500 So I don't know if, Rudyard, you want to add any final thoughts before we wrap up and some shout-outs.

01:59:01.000 No, thank you so much for having me.

01:59:02.840 I'm Rudyard from What If Altist.

01:59:04.500 You guys can keep going, but I have a pre-established commitment at noon.

01:59:08.360 Oh, no, no, yeah, we'll wrap it up.

01:59:09.900 So I appreciate you guys, both of you, coming.

01:59:12.380 I don't know, Scott, if you want to take any final thoughts or shout anything out before we go.

01:59:15.900 Well, thanks for having me.

01:59:17.280 I'm Scott Greer.

01:59:18.420 Follow me on Twitter at ScottMGreer and at SubstackHighly-Respected.com.

01:59:24.320 I have tons of content there.

01:59:25.720 So if you enjoyed my talk, or maybe if you hated me, you can leave some great comments there on Twitter.

01:59:32.720 Right on.

01:59:33.140 Well, thanks to both of you for hanging out.

01:59:34.380 I thought it was pretty good.

01:59:34.940 I'm going to just wrap by saying, hey, look, man, I'm the one who talks about the potentiality of civil war quite a bit, but I do not agree with Rudyard.

01:59:41.380 I cannot see a thousand deaths by April.

01:59:44.280 That would be a persistent four-month summer of love at the start of the County Electoral College.

01:59:50.040 Maybe I'm wrong.

01:59:50.860 I hope I'm not.

01:59:53.620 I hope it is fair to say that Trump turns things around.

01:59:58.180 The economy begins to improve.

01:59:59.860 I'm hoping that we see with this election, it's looking already 11 days out.

02:00:03.680 I hope it's true with the Republicans already leading in some swings.

02:00:06.680 I think North Carolina absentee ballot returns are showing Republicans winning.

02:00:09.380 I'm hoping that we get a popular vote victory for Trump of a substantial portion, a couple percentage points, an Electoral College victory, which is an overt rebuke of leftist ideology in this country that results in many apathetic normal people becoming less tolerant out of a fear of being on the wrong side of history.

02:00:26.060 So what ends up happening then is Trump wins.

02:00:28.440 He wins handily.

02:00:29.200 Everybody cheers.

02:00:29.940 People start wearing MAGA hats.

02:00:31.200 The left is shunned.

02:00:32.840 The weird woke ideologies are pushed out of media, as we've already seen.

02:00:35.620 And then there is no need for conflict.

02:00:37.000 And we exit this period, same as any other period of tumult with no real violence.

02:00:41.780 And then four years from now, the debate between Democrats and Republicans would be much more moderate because Democrats will be forced closer to the center.

02:00:48.580 We will see.

02:00:49.680 Thank you all so much for hanging out, guys.

02:00:51.320 Thanks for joining us.

02:00:52.280 We're back tonight at 8 p.m. over at YouTube.com slash Timcast.

02:00:55.680 But I do have more clips over at YouTube.com slash Timcast News.

02:00:59.620 Thanks for hanging out.

02:01:00.280 You can follow me on X and Instagram at Timcast.

02:01:03.180 And we'll see you all there.

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The Culture War - Tim Pool - October 25, 2024

Will The 2024 Election Start A CIVIL WAR

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