The Debrief With MyronGainesX - Former DHS Special Agent And Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson Discuss The US⧸Israel-Iran War!

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00:18:24.620 all right we are live what's up guys welcome to the stream i know it looks crazy right now i'm

00:18:43.480 gonna adjust a bit but uh larry how you doing man i'm well i'm sitting outside smoking a cigar

00:18:49.940 I have a rule

00:18:51.820 Any podcast I do after 7pm

00:18:54.100 Gets a cigar

00:18:55.340 Gotcha, no I don't blame you

00:18:56.960 So yeah, no man, thanks for coming on

00:18:59.980 I think this is gonna be

00:19:01.200 I know it looks crazy right now

00:19:03.340 I'm gonna adjust a bit

00:19:04.180 Larry, how you doing man?

00:19:07.060 I'm well

00:19:07.500 What is that reverb? Hold on one sec, I'll fix it

00:19:10.660 I have a rule

00:19:11.740 Any podcast I do after 7pm

00:19:14.060 Gets a cigar

00:19:15.320 Gotcha

00:19:16.040 what the hell

00:19:25.100 okay um are we good now you can hear me right larry oh yeah yeah okay it's on the fight all

00:19:44.060 alone yeah there was some word weird reverb here i don't know what that was man i hate so much uh

00:19:51.000 it's always it's always the comms yeah and it's like always always the comms it's like the

00:19:57.980 government police can never figure it out now oh here we hear me right yeah no there was a okay

00:20:02.420 there's a time back in 2000 2001 i was working at port bragg on an exercise general doug brown was

00:20:12.300 he was the commander of JSOC at the time.

00:20:16.880 And the exercise involved, they had a new aircraft

00:20:20.760 and they had a new tactical satellite phone

00:20:25.680 that was on board the plane.

00:20:27.800 So we were to test to see if he could have communication

00:20:31.700 in flight with, you know, in this case,

00:20:35.140 I was role-playing the ambassador to Columbia,

00:20:39.920 U.S. ambassador to Columbia.

00:20:42.300 So, you know, he's at Pope Army Airfield, takes all.

00:20:47.840 And then we, so we go to make the call.

00:20:50.940 And immediately it was like.

00:20:58.720 So the bottom line, we never, we never did get the comms to work.

00:21:01.980 Yeah.

00:21:02.400 And so here we're not talking about, you know,

00:21:04.720 we're talking about the head of the joint special operations command.

00:21:07.880 You know, the only thing above them is like the guy,

00:21:10.180 joint chiefs of staff and uh so even even the best stuff didn't work yeah it's like and it

00:21:18.080 always happens at the worst time right it never happens when it's like oh i'm doing a test or

00:21:21.460 something right like we just did a little mic check everything was fine now you know some weird

00:21:24.780 reverb comes but um real quick larry i know who you are but um for the people that don't know who

00:21:29.520 you are uh can you please introduce yourself well right now i'm an old guy uh so um i started with

00:21:37.540 the central intelligence agency in 1985 i was in a career trainee program spent four years there

00:21:45.140 got fed up left went was invited to take a job at state department in the office of counterterrorism

00:21:52.180 which i did i was a deputy director for transportation security anti-terrorism training

00:21:57.500 assistance and that supported the special operations community stayed there for four

00:22:04.500 years i got out started my own consulting business was this in the 90s right you were

00:22:09.580 you were with yeah so i was i was state 89 to 93 okay and then uh with both cia and state

00:22:16.660 cia was 85 to 89 okay so and then i moved uh moved from uh state from cia to state in october

00:22:26.620 of 89 okay yeah so then you went private after that then i went uh private but uh started working

00:22:35.080 in 1994 with a consulting firm uh where where we scripted exercises for the joint special

00:22:41.620 operations command uh u.s special operations forces for the people that don't know can you

00:22:47.120 explain what that is for those that might not know what that is yeah it's uh it's based at

00:22:51.900 Fort Bragg, and it oversees Delta Force, SEAL Team 6,

00:22:56.480 Task Force 160, which are the Night Stalkers helicopters,

00:23:00.520 and a number of other actually classified units.

00:23:03.400 Those used to be classified units, but now they've been all over television

00:23:07.400 and movies.

00:23:08.220 With the internet, too.

00:23:09.680 Yeah.

00:23:11.840 And so I did a number of exercises.

00:23:14.320 My job was to script the State Department messages,

00:23:18.240 This is simulating as if Secretary of State was sending a message out or some ambassador was sending a message back to state.

00:23:25.900 And then it was all it was all designed to test, you know, create scenarios where the U.S. military, you know, Delta Force or SEAL Team 6 would have to deploy to a particular location and carry out an operation.

00:23:40.600 So I did that. And I also did a product counterfeiting investigation overseas, money laundering investigations.

00:23:47.560 So I've done a variety of things.

00:23:49.580 Gotcha.

00:23:49.960 And now I spend most of my time as a firearms instructor.

00:23:53.620 Okay, nice, nice.

00:23:56.380 So obviously right now we're in a very pivotal moment in American and Middle Eastern history for that matter.

00:24:05.140 Some crazy things have happened over the past few weeks with the conflict with Iran.

00:24:09.280 I know obviously you've been in the government for a while, or a while ago, and even back in the 80s, they were trying to start something with Iran.

00:24:15.640 So I'll kind of just turn it to you.

00:24:18.340 What are your thoughts on Iran in general?

00:24:20.560 What are your thoughts on the conflict, how Trump is handling it?

00:24:23.500 I'll just kind of leave it open-ended,

00:24:24.680 and you can kind of just go and break it down however you feel.

00:24:28.560 Iran has gotten a very bad rap from the beginning.

00:24:32.180 We're always told that they're the number one sponsor of terrorism.

00:24:34.900 They are not.

00:24:35.960 Not by a – nowhere close, not even in the ballpark.

00:24:41.140 So that's lie number one.

00:24:43.000 lie number two is they've killed thousands of americans also not true uh the thing that you

00:24:49.520 know i hear a lot of americans say well god they they chant death to america what have we done to

00:24:54.420 them well let me tell you so yeah the we we uh overthrew a democratically elected government in

00:25:02.100 1954 with teddy roosevelt's uh son a kermit not the frog kermit roosevelt uh installed the shawl

00:25:10.820 who ran a pretty brutal regime and he was overthrown by a popular uprising it was not

00:25:17.860 organized by cia in fact that's sort of what has pissed cia off all these years that the people

00:25:24.780 actually rose up throughout the shah and established an islamic republic so the any group of students

00:25:32.320 they got mad at the united states when we brought when we took uh the shah of iran in california

00:25:38.400 And so they captured our embassy in Tehran, took a bunch of people hostage, and I knew a couple of them.

00:25:47.240 One woman named Ann Swift is an example.

00:25:50.180 Unfortunately, she's now dead.

00:25:53.660 And so in September of 1980, Jimmy Carter's president, Zbigniew Brzezinski, his national security advisor,

00:26:01.720 and um they decide to give saddam there's this guy saddam hussein don't know if you've ever

00:26:08.060 heard of him no i have no idea he was running a rock and they said hey saddam you know if you

00:26:14.840 want to invade iran these new crazy mullahs you got our backing buddy and so saddam did started

00:26:22.080 a war ronald reagan comes in in january 81 as a as a guy working for him named don rumsfeld

00:26:29.100 And Don Rumsfeld travels to Iraq to meet with Saddam Hussein and to offer Saddam Hussein precursor chemicals.

00:26:37.780 Chemicals for what? For making a chemical weapon, a weapon of mass destruction.

00:26:42.980 Sounds familiar.

00:26:43.500 And so in August of 1983, Iran, with our assistance, builds its first chemical weapon, launches it against Iran.

00:26:51.820 And then from August of 83 to August of 1988, Iran launched a total, I mean, Iraq launched a total of 20 chemical weapon attacks against Iran.

00:27:03.980 And what did those dastardly mullahs do in Tehran?

00:27:09.120 They did not build a chemical weapon.

00:27:12.560 They did not use chemical weapons in retaliation.

00:27:15.860 They stayed away from it because they viewed it as a sin.

00:27:18.620 uh also during this time there's a former you know calling a former friend of mine simply

00:27:25.840 because he's deceased uh walter patrick lang who set up the arabic program at west point in 1975

00:27:33.560 76 he was the defense attaché to saudi arabia and yemen he later went on to become chief of

00:27:40.480 the middle east division of defense intelligence agencies and lo and behold 1987 1988 his job was

00:27:48.140 to hand carry U.S. government intelligence to the government of Iraq so they could use it to kill

00:27:54.300 Iranians. As a result of U.S. assistance to the government of Iraq, more than 300,000 Iranians

00:28:02.960 died. So when someone says, well, why do they can't death to America? That's why. That's one

00:28:10.480 big reason why another reason is um in my former office at state uh the the time is called the

00:28:19.100 coordinator for counterterrorists in 1997 they designated a foreign terrorist organization

00:28:24.160 called the mek m-e-k-mujahideen as a as a terrorist organization then when we invaded

00:28:33.240 Iraq in 2003, because Saddam was now no longer our friend, we discovered that the Mech had set

00:28:41.480 up a camp there in Iraq, and they were attacking Iran. So what happened? The CIA took them under

00:28:47.500 their wing, my old outfit, and then eventually moved them to Albania, provided them weapons,

00:28:53.720 provided them training, provided them money, and then the Mech was used to carry out terrorist

00:28:58.340 attacks in iran so my point is the united states likes to play like it's the victim

00:29:03.260 and by god we're the terrorists not iran we're the terrorists yeah and the americans are going

00:29:08.720 wait a second guys i just i'll show you the record you show me one terrorist attack that iran is

00:29:16.100 carrying out in the united states just one and you can't because it hasn't happened yeah um they'll

00:29:23.120 say well what about the marine barracks in october 1983 yeah what about that they love that one

00:29:28.320 What happened in September of 83?

00:29:31.780 U.S. battleships off the shore of Lebanon were shelling into the Bacaw Valley, killing Shia women, children, men who were not combatants.

00:29:42.740 And guess what?

00:29:44.000 People who lose family members that we've attacked.

00:29:47.140 Excuse me, my dog is barking.

00:29:49.040 No, you're fine.

00:29:49.920 People who lose family members as a result of U.S. military action, they might hold a grudge occasionally.

00:29:55.320 And they carried out that grudge in October.

00:29:57.920 Again, it was attacking a military target, though.

00:30:00.240 It wasn't attacking civilians.

00:30:02.440 And that's a critical thing to remember.

00:30:04.880 Definition of terrorism, the use of violence against civilians for political purposes.

00:30:10.060 Because if you're using violence against guys in uniform, sorry, that's called war, okay?

00:30:14.760 You get to wear a uniform, carry a gun, you get to shoot back if you get the chance.

00:30:19.180 And if your luck's against you and you die, you die.

00:30:21.880 Sorry about that.

00:30:22.600 Yeah. So this entire thing, you know, now we jump ahead to December 26, meeting in Geneva.

00:30:30.960 The Iranians come out and say, yeah, that's a pretty good meeting. We got some progress. We

00:30:34.880 think there's more to talk about. We'll see you guys on Monday. And that would have been Monday,

00:30:40.340 March 2nd. Yep. Except on Saturday, February 28th, the United States and Israel in a way like

00:30:48.860 the japanese did to us at pearl harbor in 1941 december 7th launched a surprise attack that

00:30:56.160 tried to decapitate the the iranian leadership and we killed 175 school girls ages 6 to 12

00:31:04.360 and there was a three three three day old baby in the lot too just to you know so uh and gee for

00:31:13.000 some reason the iranians got upset can you imagine yeah i mean it's like why can't they just sit there

00:31:19.560 and take a beating from us without getting upset and so they turned around and said okay this is

00:31:25.240 war and we've been at war now that the the israelis had convinced donald trump that oh

00:31:30.820 we just kill these guys and piece of cake we'll be over in four days four days yeah like stock

00:31:36.580 market will be back on monday tuesday we'll be back recovered we'll get this thing done i think

00:31:41.080 the venezuela operation really uh increased uh trump's hubris and he really thought i could get

00:31:46.860 this done over a weekend we'll decapitate and everything and you know because i've been covering

00:31:51.240 the war extensively right and i've watched you on different other shows and uh you did an interview

00:31:56.340 with my friend uh soliman which i was like oh this is fantastic so um you know and obviously

00:32:00.380 getting yeah he's a good guy so and getting your insight would be great so like okay so we've been

00:32:05.380 in this quagmire for three weeks right it looks like one day trump is saying this then he's saying

00:32:10.280 this price of energy has gone up ridiculously we're talking about 20 straighter humus is pretty

00:32:14.840 much closed unless you're paying 2 million bucks to get by uh qatar's natural gas is pretty much

00:32:19.240 cooked with lng being down um the iranians have targeted intelligently the gulf to put more

00:32:25.140 pressure on the united states etc right and we're kind of like in a weird spot right now where i

00:32:31.200 think it's pretty clear that air power is not you know accomplishing all the strategic objectives

00:32:35.640 um and now there's talk about this karg island um you know invasion that's the latest with the

00:32:41.440 conflict um what are your thoughts about where we are now what are your thoughts about the meu

00:32:46.000 allegedly you know invading this the karg island or is that going to be a diversion for something

00:32:50.020 else what's your thoughts on all that okay i'll get into that in a second i want to ask you a

00:32:54.080 question sure so think back to your time in high school middle school what were you told how did

00:32:59.060 the war in the pacific against the japanese in world war ii and what brought that to an end

00:33:03.280 the atomic bomb as well as um stalin uh invading and getting closer to japan okay i'm glad you

00:33:10.300 added the last part because most americans are brainwashed oh it was the atomic bomb

00:33:14.780 no it actually it wasn't it was the there had been a lot we'd killed over 700 000 japanese

00:33:21.220 but uh the um the the the japanese weren't ready to surrender until the soviets came in and the

00:33:30.000 japanese tried to negotiate with them the soviets said no uh you got an unconditional surrender and

00:33:36.080 that's when they cave yeah so a lot of americans don't know that so because i've had to say that

00:33:40.540 many times when i tell people that you can't win a war by air power alone they say oh we drove two

00:33:45.060 atomic bombs i was like no dude it was the soviets that made them really surrender yeah so uh where

00:33:51.940 are we right now um uh i i saw on uh there's called the the frog intel on x and it was referenced

00:34:01.660 by someone called osi intel you know open source intelligence defender is uh is the way is the x

00:34:09.000 account oh i think rerun i think you're talking about rerun the one that does the updates like

00:34:12.260 every couple minutes right yeah yeah i think yeah and what was uh what they showed were uh 35 flights

00:34:21.040 that have taken place since march 12th and they're they're going to all of these military bases

00:34:27.280 and they list the number of flights that they made and um well i looked at those military bases

00:34:35.240 they're all special operations bases and so um there's only in my experience and this isn't based

00:34:43.420 upon any classified information but in my experience when you get air air movement out

00:34:48.640 of those bases you're doing one of two things you're doing an exercise or you're doing a

00:34:55.420 deployment for real world activity what i saw you know so they've they've gone to fort bragg

00:35:02.240 where delta force is they've gone to naval oceana air station in virginia where seal team six is

00:35:09.940 and other seal teams they've gone to hunter army airfield in georgia where the 75th ranger regiment

00:35:18.280 first battalion is they've gone to joint base lewis mccord in washington where the 75th ranger

00:35:25.500 second uh battalion is located i believe uh they've gone to fort campbell uh multiple flights

00:35:33.220 to all of these fort campbell where uh and this is a plane you're tracking just because i i was

00:35:38.080 looking at something you said it's a plane that okay they were these are these are 35 different

00:35:42.640 flights by C-17s. C-17s do one of two things. They haul either cargo, like helicopters,

00:35:50.960 artillery pieces, even tanks, or they haul troops, 204 at a time. And this has been going on since

00:36:02.080 March 12th. Like I said, there's only two reasons to do that. It's either an exercise, and there's

00:36:10.460 no exercise so i conclude it's a real world and then uh we on march 13th uh trump orders the the

00:36:18.380 marine expeditionary unit the 31st unit that's it's called the 31st it's in okinawa they load

00:36:24.300 up ship they start sailing for iran uh and so on monday when trump said we're calling a ceasefire

00:36:31.320 for five days yeah oh what what happens in five days oh the 31st view arrives um so based on all

00:36:41.580 this and then then i learned yesterday that uh donald trump was supposed to attend a charity

00:36:48.100 event at mara lago friday night and he's canceled um and then uh i didn't even know that he's supposed

00:36:56.880 to go to CPAC over the weekend, and I was told he's canceled that. Now, maybe if he reverses and

00:37:02.580 doesn't cancel and attends, it's different. But if he's canceling that, he knows that something's

00:37:09.080 going to happen. So here's what I think is going to happen. I think the SEAL Team 6 is going to

00:37:16.560 be used along with one of the rager battalions to attack Karg Island, to secure Karg Island,

00:37:22.980 and the Delta Force will take Keshem

00:37:26.720 and it may be reversed.

00:37:28.400 One of the special ops units

00:37:30.340 is going to take each one of the islands

00:37:32.240 and they'll be supported by the 75th Rangers

00:37:37.420 and they may even be supported

00:37:39.340 by members of the 82nd Battalion.

00:37:42.740 I think that came out publicly

00:37:44.180 because I'm looking here.

00:37:46.240 I'm actually looking at rerum right now.

00:37:48.100 I think something about airborne is, yeah,

00:37:50.580 because they put MEU airborne,

00:37:52.380 but these other, obviously, more elite units,

00:37:55.620 I didn't hear anything about them coming,

00:37:56.720 but it makes sense, right?

00:37:58.480 Yeah.

00:37:59.120 Now, you said Keshem.

00:38:01.120 You said they're going to come in through.

00:38:02.620 Where is that?

00:38:04.320 Keshem is there in the Strait of Hormuz.

00:38:06.500 It's another little island right off the coast of Iran.

00:38:11.940 Now, what makes this so dangerous?

00:38:15.980 Yeah, we can put troops in there.

00:38:17.920 And do what?

00:38:19.600 They're not going to be able to stop the Iranians

00:38:22.040 from firing drones, from firing missiles from shore,

00:38:26.100 they're not going to be able to guarantee the safe passage of any ship.

00:38:31.640 And again, I'm looking at, these are the only two logical targets

00:38:35.100 if your goal is in some way to try to affect the flow of oil

00:38:39.180 and somehow try to get control of the Strait of Hormuz.

00:38:44.700 Because Iran will start hitting those troops with drones,

00:38:49.240 FPV drones, bigger drones, and missiles.

00:38:52.040 uh and it's going to be um it's going to be pretty you know potentially pretty brutal

00:38:57.640 how many so it's it i was going to ask so so you think so we're not so we're basically talking

00:39:04.480 about um more of a invasion of the karg island these areas here right by the straighter who

00:39:10.080 wants to try to secure it how many i know we're talking about 20 about 2,500 to 4,000 marines

00:39:14.920 how many of these special operators would you say are going to also be there if you had to take a

00:39:18.560 guess how many could be probably an additional 2 000 okay so we're looking at this 6 000 at the

00:39:25.040 most service well yeah potentially well and then but then when you get into um you know if we're

00:39:31.160 dealing with the full battalions of the 75th rangers uh and if we're dealing with the full

00:39:36.440 you know um battalion of 82nd airborne you know so these uh i'd say you know at a minimum we're

00:39:47.380 probably looking at 6 000 minimum okay and it could be higher than that so six to ten you would

00:39:56.000 say yeah okay maybe maybe a little higher but again what are they going to do if anybody that's

00:40:02.380 watched videos fpv videos out of ukraine in the war there you don't see the russians or the

00:40:09.420 ukrainians standing around in groups of five or six people because if they do they get hit you

00:40:14.460 see them scatter they they try to be in ones and twos so you know we're putting we're putting some

00:40:21.160 of our best warriors potentially in harm's way now the the news right now is that all you know

00:40:27.040 trump's cut a deal with iran and iran's talking and iran's saying no we're not yeah we don't have

00:40:32.700 anything to talk to you about um but trump keeps building that up and i think you know one one

00:40:40.220 thing he may be doing is building a narrative so come friday after their markets are closed

00:40:46.360 because he's doing this positive narrative to try to push down the price of oil push up the price

00:40:52.260 of the stock market come friday after the close of the market he'll say oops iran's betrayed us

00:40:58.620 they're not cooperating we're going to have to attack and then the attack will be on so i sure

00:41:04.540 hope i'm wrong yeah i've been i'd love to be wrong on this well you've been writing a lot of stuff

00:41:09.240 I've seen some of, you know, your predictions.

00:41:12.400 So, okay, so do you think this,

00:41:14.720 so they're basically going to focus on the islands

00:41:16.740 around the Shredder Humus.

00:41:17.540 So we're not talking about like an actual interior invasion

00:41:20.180 of the actual, like, you know.

00:41:21.900 Oh, that'd be suicide.

00:41:23.600 Exactly, yeah.

00:41:24.680 I mean, they go through the mountain, you know, at a minimum.

00:41:28.920 And see, this is where the, you know,

00:41:30.760 traditional notion of invasion goes off the rails.

00:41:35.320 You were just a kid 20 years ago.

00:41:39.240 when we uh started the war in iraq i remember vividly we spent the 11 months prior to launching

00:41:46.360 it in march of 2003 11 months building up troops in kuwait and iraq we had the luxury we built up

00:41:52.840 165 000 and but you can't do that today because you've got the advanced intelligence surveillance

00:42:00.920 reconnaissance you got the drones you got the missiles uh you know all saddam had back then

00:42:07.080 were some crappy scuds but uh now iran iran's got state-of-the-art missiles so uh and you know

00:42:15.440 and chinese intel force and russian intel yeah and and and iran's total military force with its

00:42:23.240 the the regular army the arrest uh the iranian revolutionary guard and then uh the the the

00:42:32.020 militia yeah um they're like the equivalent of like their national guard the volunteer guys i

00:42:36.780 know what we were talking about yeah yeah and and they they come to it makes about a million

00:42:42.060 so you know if you're going to attack that you need a minimum three million men minimum three

00:42:47.580 to one ratio all we all we got in the army right now is about 452 000 man so okay so you think that

00:42:56.900 you know the objective here is going to be to control car carg island now my thing is how are

00:43:02.320 they going to get into a position to get over there without being attacked like that's where

00:43:08.040 how do you think they're going to actually make the um the drop i think you know i i think the

00:43:13.660 they'll fly right now they assembled they got there are two bases in jordan one base in israel

00:43:19.000 they'll fly from there are their helicopters uh so they all the way to iran they're going to fly

00:43:26.280 in a helicopter no they'll fly and they'll fly from there to uh al-udid air force base okay which

00:43:31.380 is in Qatar which is just across the the Persian Gulf or what's left of it right there I said or

00:43:36.880 what's left of it at this point right yeah what's left of it exactly so they'll be able to uh uh

00:43:42.880 launch from there I mean I'm just looking at if you know if I'm doing the planning that's how I

00:43:47.840 do it yeah so they launch from there doesn't that make them extremely susceptible to like a

00:43:53.580 counter-attack or whatever like in my head I'm like we're gonna drop these guys off you know

00:43:57.860 on this island and it's like what to contain it and then what like damn it my room you're being

00:44:03.480 too logical you stop that you're being you're being rational and thoughtful we can't have that

00:44:08.300 in government yeah what am i doing that's that's why you didn't succeed in government yeah they got

00:44:13.020 rid of you kept asking these uncomfortable questions but why yeah like yeah it is literally

00:44:18.260 it's like uh you know get out of here buddy what are you doing what are you talking about

00:44:21.280 so it's just it's just insane to me man yeah you're exactly right you know you're you're

00:44:26.460 correctly identifying what the problems are yeah and um you know as a result of that um

00:44:33.080 we're you know and i i'm afraid we're gonna get some really good guys killed yeah you know i'll

00:44:40.680 tell you this man because you know i was 13 when we invaded iraq and um you know i remember iraq

00:44:46.080 wasn't even really able to mount a real attack or you know threaten the u.s until about five

00:44:50.100 months into the conflict um versus here with the iranians like i mean with it within an hour of

00:44:55.520 the supreme leader being killed they were launching missiles at all of our bases in israel which yeah

00:44:59.540 you got to give them credit that's in you know obviously their mosaic defense works and honestly

00:45:04.080 i think at this point even if we nuked them it wouldn't matter the underground missile cities

00:45:08.460 are there's hundreds of them all across the country yeah you're you're definitely right

00:45:13.200 they had they've prepared they've prepared for that contingency um they actually i think they

00:45:18.520 fully expect that israel is going to nuke them maybe not us but israel will yeah and the problem

00:45:24.580 they've got is that the problem that israel has is it's small all iran has to do is destroy two

00:45:30.800 cities and they've destroyed you know tel aviv and haifa they've now destroyed 55 of iran's

00:45:35.820 population right there yeah whereas you destroy take out tehran with the nuke you know you've

00:45:42.460 done about 11 of the population of iran the rest of them are scattered around mountain villages

00:45:48.020 There are like 10 other cities or a million or around a million piece,

00:45:53.880 a million, two million.

00:45:55.640 Yeah, that's another thing.

00:45:57.020 Iran will still be around.

00:45:58.920 And that's another thing that, like,

00:45:59.800 Americans grossly underestimate is the size of this country.

00:46:03.700 Like, this is not Iraq, right?

00:46:06.200 And they can actually fight back, and they've been doing it.

00:46:10.820 It's Texas times two, okay?

00:46:13.940 Twice the size of Texas.

00:46:15.360 Yeah, Texas is huge.

00:46:17.000 Yeah.

00:46:18.020 So we obviously are running this operation.

00:46:20.840 I agree with you that Trump made that announcement about the ceasefire more to calm down the markets.

00:46:26.480 Because I've noticed any time we start to creep into the 110, 120 range, he starts to just panic and, like, put out a true social post or do an emergency meeting.

00:46:36.540 I remember he was down here.

00:46:37.640 I think you're in Florida as well.

00:46:40.080 He was in Doral.

00:46:40.760 Yeah.

00:46:41.180 And he called, like, an emergency broadcast.

00:46:42.480 I'm in the south of Tampa.

00:46:44.080 Okay, perfect.

00:46:44.660 So like, yeah, he was in Doral like a week or two ago when the prices hit about almost 120 a barrel and he had like an emergency press conference.

00:46:51.920 And it's like, OK, he's trying to, you know, stop the bleeding to some degree with a bunch of posturing.

00:46:57.600 But no, I mean, this is insane, man, of what's going on.

00:47:02.000 And with all this and I think I want to get your take on this.

00:47:06.300 Do you think the casualties are I think officially right now we're sitting at about 13 KIA 14 now 14 KIA 14 KIA.

00:47:14.280 And then I've heard some somewhere between two to 300 injured is

00:47:17.600 significantly.

00:47:18.860 Yeah.

00:47:19.480 What do you think?

00:47:20.420 I think the numbers are higher.

00:47:22.220 I think they're lying about it.

00:47:23.540 Okay.

00:47:24.760 They're trying to classify some that are combat casualties as accidents,

00:47:30.220 et cetera.

00:47:31.340 So it's like, where are you in Florida?

00:47:34.720 Roughly?

00:47:35.180 I'm down in Miami.

00:47:36.780 Oh, okay.

00:47:37.440 So, you know, I've been,

00:47:40.060 you see what's been happening to the price of gasoline.

00:47:42.740 Oh, it's nuts.

00:47:44.280 it's a it's up at least a buck 10 in the last four weeks i got people in my chat i did a poll

00:47:50.940 with my guys in my chat and they i said hey give me the price of uh a gallon of gas in your state

00:47:55.500 and uh what it was before like some guys in california were telling me eight bucks crazy

00:48:00.340 no yeah i just uh a former professional golfer is a buddy of mine brad adamonis he just sent me

00:48:07.820 he's out in california playing in a senior tournament and he just sent me a picture of

00:48:12.200 the gas it's a you know it's eight dollars insane i can't remember was there i remember gas was

00:48:20.140 really high when we invaded iraq i have like a childhood memory that scarred me for life about

00:48:23.460 that but i don't think i've ever seen a gallon of gas at eight bucks have you no at least not

00:48:30.500 back here now tell you what if we see eight bucks in florida oh you know that's a sign of the

00:48:35.780 apocalypse yeah we're cooked and and the crazy part is you know the thing that scares me the

00:48:40.500 most about this larry is we have trump making these comments about oh we'll go ahead and escort

00:48:45.460 you with the navy oh uh we have this a ceasefire in place uh we're going to release 400 million

00:48:50.460 barrels of oil right they've been doing all of this massaging to try to bring the price down

00:48:55.280 and we're still sitting well above 100 for brent crude which is like yeah you're doing literally

00:49:00.560 we're doing all of this and we still can't keep it under 100 bucks i can only imagine

00:49:03.860 you know people are going to realize this isn't going to end it's going to keep going

00:49:07.320 He's going to continue to go up.

00:49:09.420 Okay, so you're the president.

00:49:12.060 We're going to, in fact, I wish we could elect you.

00:49:15.300 I'd have a lot more confidence in you than the current guy.

00:49:19.000 So you're going to impose sanctions on Russia and Iran.

00:49:23.500 Why would you impose sanctions on them?

00:49:26.520 To try to cripple their economies.

00:49:28.640 Yeah, you'd want to hurt them, right?

00:49:30.560 Yeah.

00:49:30.720 And so why then, when, you know, Iran starts punching back and closes the Gulf, do you lift all the sanctions on Russia and Iran?

00:49:43.420 Yes, well, it's Larry, you're making too much sense.

00:49:46.640 Okay.

00:49:46.940 I mean, it's just like, hey, you're an Iran sympathizer.

00:49:49.680 Are you getting paid by the IRGC?

00:49:51.740 Huh?

00:49:52.220 Yeah, I wish.

00:49:53.560 You know, where's my check?

00:49:54.580 Yeah.

00:49:56.020 Cheap bastards.

00:49:57.140 Yeah.

00:49:58.220 You know, so that shows you that Trump and Besset were panicked.

00:50:03.300 Yeah.

00:50:04.100 Now, some may differ with my characterization of that,

00:50:06.840 but there's no other explanation.

00:50:08.660 The only explanation-

00:50:09.420 You're 100% right, dude.

00:50:10.500 They tried to crash the real and it backfired too.

00:50:12.460 The protesting thing was crap.

00:50:14.740 You know, they tried with the uprising in January

00:50:16.960 and they failed monumentally.

00:50:18.900 Yeah, absolutely.

00:50:20.660 So have you heard what's happened now to oil in Iran?

00:50:25.100 You'll love this.

00:50:25.880 this is from Trita Parsi um before the war started Iran was was pumping 1.1 million barrels of oil

00:50:36.520 selling it at a net price of 47 dollars a barrel okay now you know three weeks later

00:50:45.880 Iran is pumping 1.5 million so they're up 400,000 barrels per day and they're selling it at

00:50:55.080 97 dollars a barrel more than double the price wow they uh and sanctions are temporarily lifted

00:51:02.920 on them as well which is crazy oh yeah it's like this is such a this is so bad it's like in my head

00:51:09.260 i'm like because and i'm sure you heard this too later right oh well you guys need to just trust

00:51:13.560 the plan trump is playing 4d chess him invading is you know he took venezuela so now the chinese

00:51:18.520 had to go to the iranians now he's messing with the iranians they're ready to get that oil too

00:51:21.800 and we're going to weaken them.

00:51:22.720 And it's like, it completely backfired

00:51:24.000 because China's still getting oil.

00:51:25.740 The Russians have been able to make money hand over fist

00:51:27.740 because sanctions are lifted.

00:51:28.980 And then the people that were in war.

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00:51:47.700 You lift the sanctions on them.

00:51:49.280 This has like been, I don't think the American,

00:51:51.800 general american public knows that this is what's going on here like it's nuts and i know exactly

00:51:56.980 what happened in vietnam because my former business i call him former business partner i

00:52:02.220 mean we're you know still great friends and we just got to the age where okay we'll go off and

00:52:06.740 do our own things um he was uh he was the one that brought three guys who were part of maduro's

00:52:16.420 security detail as and i won't get into how he came in contact with him but let's just say

00:52:22.400 they came in they got in contact with him and um they wanted to um collect on the 50 million

00:52:30.380 reward so basically those three guys who had rented all of maduro's security in terms they

00:52:37.140 got they turned off all the weapons all the you know air defense they turned it all off it was it

00:52:42.200 was a cooked deal yep that's that's how they pulled that off not with our great military

00:52:46.740 expertise and the real the irony of the story those three guys when it came tied to pace

00:52:52.520 trump stiffed them said no we're not paying any reward what oh my god because you know you know

00:52:59.440 shocked me larry right because i know obviously you were in the cia in the in the early 90s right

00:53:04.120 when we were starting to really build up the momentum with the war against terrorism right

00:53:08.240 we started to see mid 80s oh i'm sorry i was i was at i was at a state you know so the office

00:53:13.960 of counterterrorism yeah we put out the first publication of patterns of global terrorism

00:53:18.680 in april of 1990 that was the first one my bad i meant to say yeah no no yeah so state department

00:53:25.940 with counterterrorism there so um i lost my train of thought um well i mean at the time look that's

00:53:34.220 That was the start of Al-Qaeda.

00:53:37.060 Yes.

00:53:37.880 The bombing of the World Trade Center, the first bombing, that was actually carried out by Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was the mastermind.

00:53:46.740 KSM, yeah.

00:53:47.240 And his nephew.

00:53:50.280 Ramzi Youssef.

00:53:51.440 Ramzi Youssef.

00:53:52.580 He did the World Trade Center bombing in the early 90s.

00:53:55.620 Right.

00:53:56.000 And then he disappeared.

00:53:58.240 We were looking for him.

00:53:59.980 And then he showed up in the Philippines.

00:54:02.620 he got uh he was part of the plot called bojinka oh i remember what i was gonna say now um maduro's

00:54:10.960 maduro's reward was more than bin laden insane insane that's the highest i've ever seen

00:54:17.380 ever but sorry that was what i was gonna say i forgot but keep going yeah i was the one who

00:54:21.960 started the terrorism rewards program in the advertising of it really yeah wow we uh before

00:54:29.160 they used to have this cheesy poster with you know some guy with a mask pointing a gun at some

00:54:34.560 woman's head said give us money you know the report terrorism so uh we did uh we did a series

00:54:41.060 of public service ads that we produced them in the summer of 1990 um and i went to hollywood we had

00:54:48.740 three hollywood stars charlton heston charles bronson and charlie sheen okay the charlie campaign

00:54:57.880 and uh it was called uh are you uh are you are you the next hero and so the the script went

00:55:05.960 something like hello i'm charlton heston in the movies i play a hero but in real life heroes are

00:55:11.640 and you know go on the pitch people you know rat out your buddy for a reward on terrorism

00:55:16.520 um sort of a funny side story i was working you know a couple of good friends in diplomatic

00:55:23.360 security uh one guy's name uh brad's uh mike parks the other brad smith brad later died of

00:55:32.220 lou gehrig's disease but brad brad was the one who came up with the matchbook the concept of

00:55:39.540 putting terrorist pictures or reward information on matchbooks passing them out in afghanistan and

00:55:44.740 pakistan that led to the capture of ramzi usap but anyway i get this frantic phone call it's

00:55:50.780 We're about a week away from releasing the ads.

00:55:54.420 And a frantic phone call from Brad going, oh, my God, Charlie Sheen has just been admitted to Betty Ford Clinic.

00:56:01.500 And I said, so what's the problem?

00:56:03.420 He goes, oh, my God, that's going to look bad.

00:56:04.900 I said, hey, as long as he didn't strap a bomb on and blow himself up, we're okay.

00:56:10.140 Because this is not a just say no to drugs campaign.

00:56:12.760 This is, you know, rat out your buddies on terrorism.

00:56:15.720 But that's where the terrorism rewards program start.

00:56:18.460 It really got its start.

00:56:20.780 So I so that's crazy with the Maduro thing, because I knew with with with Maduro that like there was obviously people embedded in there that were spies.

00:56:28.600 Right. And this doesn't mean that the Iranians don't have their problems.

00:56:31.480 I mean, they got attacked back in the 12 day war because they were compromised.

00:56:34.560 But, you know, I think Trump really underestimated the power of a theocracy, Shia Islam and how, you know, these people are different, you know, than Venezuela.

00:56:46.780 And it's, it's a much bigger, more harder country to deal with than,

00:56:51.140 than Venezuela would be. So, so my, Oh, so let's go,

00:56:55.080 what do you think about what are your thoughts on the F-15s that were shot

00:56:58.520 down? They try to say that Kuwaiti friendly fire. And I just,

00:57:02.240 I can't buy that story. And then also the F-35 that was shot down.

00:57:04.800 What are your thoughts on these air,

00:57:05.960 these American stealth craft getting shot down? Allegedly.

00:57:09.160 Have you ever been, have you ever been shot at?

00:57:11.940 No, not on the job. Thank God. Okay. But if someone's shooting at you,

00:57:15.980 would you consider that friendly fire no not at all so um the the first the first three f-15s

00:57:25.180 that got shot down they were shot down by a kuwaiti pilot who basically was uh shia and supported

00:57:33.280 iran okay so he got because they tried to frame it they tried to frame it like he was a part of

00:57:41.840 the kuwaiti military um he's just just a confused guy yeah please you know no he got uh uh he got

00:57:51.120 uh he you know he got almost an ace i guess you gotta get four four down aircraft to become an

00:57:56.460 ace but no he shot he shot him down um where was i think that's insane my chest going crazy right

00:58:03.820 now they're like what yeah that was the first week first week two weeks of the war then we

00:58:09.960 had the f-35 that was shot down last week what happened with that is um the iranians are using a

00:58:16.820 heat-seeking missile so that the the f-35 is designed to detect an incoming missile that's

00:58:24.700 using radar to find it uh they'll ping and they go ding ding ding and they know they need to evade

00:58:30.740 but this one this was a heat seeker and once he realized that the heat seeker was getting ready to

00:58:36.660 you know, climb up his rear end, he fired off these, I call them flares that are superheated

00:58:45.040 to try to deflect the missile. And the missile hit one of them, exploded, and the shrapnel from

00:58:52.200 that explosion hit the F-35. That's why it was damaged severely, but not knocked out of the sky.

00:59:00.300 So, you know, Iran's not out of the fight as far as air defense goes, not at all.

00:59:04.680 so the going back real quick to the f-15s um because obviously pete access and kane have been

00:59:09.920 saying oh yeah we have air dominance air superiority right they were doing like a briefing at the

00:59:13.560 pentagon like every other day saying this and then you know next thing you know these uh fighter jets

00:59:17.760 are getting shot out the air because i remember one had a female pilot and the the first three

00:59:21.680 that they basically i think they survived if i'm not mistaken it was three to four pilots yeah they

00:59:24.820 all survived nobody nobody died that i know of but you're saying because this is super important

00:59:29.080 you're saying the person that shot him down was a kuwaiti citizen but he wasn't necessarily part

00:59:33.600 of the kuwaiti armed forces which is allied with oh no he was he was no he's a kuwaiti military guy

00:59:38.500 he was in the he was in the kuwaiti air force oh so he just affected i guess

00:59:43.020 i decided at the moment you know what i'm pissed off at these americans

00:59:47.260 wow took them out you know shot them down but didn't kill them which is you know a good good

00:59:52.180 result how do you how was he able to i know the f-15s are don't have the same stealth capabilities

00:59:56.780 like a 35 or uh 22 but how did he do it like uh what what my understanding he was he was he was

01:00:03.460 flying an f-16 so i guess the f-16 has got a little bit of an edge over the f-15 oh yeah i'm

01:00:10.840 not i'm not an air force guy so yeah i'll defer to any air force bubbles out there that want to

01:00:15.740 weigh in and say oh no this is how this works okay so he was in his own fighter gen he shot

01:00:20.860 them down yeah yeah oh you know people in my chat i'm looking right now they're saying that

01:00:25.820 he got arrested so they because uh some people are saying speculation but there's he got the

01:00:29.660 guy got arrested i guess right yeah yeah oh wow okay i that you know it's crazy that they didn't

01:00:37.960 report that that's a very pertinent fact that no one really talked about in uh western media so

01:00:44.660 yeah you gotta so you gotta just sort of know how to read you know the advantage i have with

01:00:50.200 you know now now being a really old fart is you know i learned how to read both public information

01:00:58.120 and you know like like that casey remember the casey 135 that quote crashed yeah killed the

01:01:05.200 entire crew the tail hit the other one allegedly no no it got shot down yeah yeah i got shot down

01:01:11.380 it got shot down with the surface dare missile that's what i said too yeah absolutely because

01:01:17.360 explain to me how does the plane okay how do these two planes crash collide because

01:01:23.260 they're not trying to refuel each other so that's what the official narrative is they said that there

01:01:28.960 it was a refueling uh mission and like one hit the other's tail and then they just crashed that's

01:01:34.520 what that's the official story yeah that's the story they came up with not a very good story

01:01:39.240 yeah so let me ask you this then um before the war started i was looking at um some of the upgrades

01:01:46.800 the iranians made to their military capabilities right i'm going to get into weeds here a little

01:01:50.640 bit with the nerdy stuff if you're familiar with it awesome if you don't then we could just go to

01:01:53.540 the next question and there were some chinese radars they purchased uh one of them is like

01:01:57.920 the ylc-8b and they had a service air missile that came alongside that and this these devices

01:02:03.960 basically you know account under american stealth as we know the chinese formulate their military

01:02:08.040 based on you know trying to steal our technology we we me and you both work for the government so

01:02:13.120 we know how how bad the chinese are when it comes to stealing our technology so um have those been

01:02:19.140 put into play yet i know for a fact that the iranians got them um and they were obviously

01:02:23.260 able to identify this f-35 but are they going to utilize them are they waiting to use them

01:02:27.980 what's that i that i don't know what i i went with the assumption that the radars were put in place

01:02:34.440 and i thought that they would have been capable of of taking of identifying and shooting down

01:02:41.000 missiles because those radars i have to be integrated with an air defense system yes uh

01:02:47.080 which is why well they got the surface air too they got both they got the ylc and then it comes

01:02:51.740 with a surface air missile as well uh device so apparently that that didn't you know the

01:02:56.680 chinese system didn't work didn't work for that that's what it would appear to me now we know

01:03:01.240 that at least in the first two weeks of the war first three weeks the the spy claims that the

01:03:06.780 u.s had air supremacy and we're flying all over iran no we weren't we were we were launching

01:03:12.400 jasms and some jdams from outside of iranian territory can you explain for my artist that's

01:03:19.680 not military minded can you explain jdams and uh the other types of yeah so a jdam is a let's call

01:03:26.380 it a bomb with waves it can it can glide glides out and the wings help keep it you know it can

01:03:32.740 travel about 50 miles out. The JASM is more of a rocket. So you fire that and it can travel about

01:03:43.880 500 miles. So that's why these planes, they didn't have to get inside. And then you had

01:03:49.500 Tomahawk cruise missiles that were being launched as well, air launched.

01:03:54.800 Some were, you know, I don't think many were launched by the destroyers that were down in

01:03:59.700 the arabian sea because i don't think they got close enough to shore because the tomahawk has

01:04:04.620 a limited range as well it doesn't have unlimited range what are your thoughts on the ford um

01:04:09.780 kind of leaving the region to get some repairs i know that they had been there significantly

01:04:13.980 longer than they were supposed to since the venezuela mission there were toilet plumbing

01:04:17.200 issues there was a fire on board um we i heard you know speculation that the iranians hit them

01:04:22.240 and they're just using that as a ruse what are your thoughts on aircraft carriers because they

01:04:25.500 did you know push back significantly and we haven't heard as much about them did they get struck

01:04:30.360 did uh do you think the whole laundry thing was a lie what are your thoughts on that with the

01:04:34.580 yeah i'm glad you're sitting down i don't want to shock you but i think the u.s government's

01:04:38.280 lying about this we're not not telling the full truth so by way of comparison i don't know if you

01:04:45.740 know who andrei martianov is andrei is a podcaster smoothie 12x is his site uh he was a foreign he

01:04:54.380 was a russian naval officer okay that with the collapse of the soviet union he and his wife and

01:05:01.060 children came to the united states in 1992 i think and he became an american citizen and worked at

01:05:09.040 boeing he was very very smart technical guy and he pulled up he did a video presentation the other

01:05:15.140 day he reminded of what happened in 1967 off the coast of vietnam with a u.s aircraft carrier the

01:05:22.160 USS forestall uh the forestall uh was uh there was a a guy named john mccain i don't know if

01:05:30.340 you ever heard of him former senator uh he was a navy pilot back then and uh he he negligently

01:05:37.380 discharged one of his missiles into the deck blew up started a major fire on the forestall

01:05:44.200 it took them uh it took them uh 19 hours to put that fire out killed about 19 sailors

01:05:54.040 injured well over 160 okay now let's compare that to the gerald ford the story is the dryers

01:06:03.800 with lint i guess they hadn't cleaned out the lint filters caught on fire and it took them 30

01:06:10.220 hours to put the fire out yeah you know nuts that just doesn't pass the sniff test but um

01:06:19.640 and the fact that the damage you know and it did follow up on uh when the when the whole plumbing

01:06:24.540 system went down you know there's there the sailing ships in the 19th century when they

01:06:30.080 had the sails they had a they had a site on the back deck it was called the poop deck now

01:06:35.380 most people assumed oh that's where the sailors went to take a poop no poop was this french word

01:06:41.140 for for deck so it was a specific deck level but in this case on the gerald r4 they really had a

01:06:48.520 poop deck i mean they had they had decks covered with poop yeah it was bad so you know we spent

01:06:54.440 15 billion dollars on this aircraft carrier took six years to build and now reportedly it's going

01:07:02.660 be out of action for you know someone said 14 months i find that a little hard to believe but

01:07:07.840 you know maybe that is true apparently it was emergency repairs and they're going right back

01:07:11.300 that's what i heard yeah it's emergency repairs no no they're back no no they're going back back

01:07:16.280 home to come back to the states they're they're not going back into the oh they're not going back

01:07:20.260 red sea okay no so what are your thoughts on what are your thoughts on israel right now and um how

01:07:27.880 they're getting hit i've noticed a significant uptick in some of the damage they're getting or

01:07:33.180 have they could have been getting hit hard like this before but obviously they had this you know

01:07:36.880 significant censorship policy slash law in place um but we saw them hit demona we saw them hit

01:07:42.440 central israel i think earlier today yeah what are your thoughts on the damage of israel uh

01:07:47.320 our relationship with israel in general i'll kind of just turn it to you well we're you know

01:07:52.660 Unfortunately, our government's, I'll call it Zionist-controlled, and it's not just Israel.

01:07:58.320 We've got Christian Zionists in this country as well, so it's not a Jewish thing.

01:08:04.300 The best definition, I had a conversation the other day with Yaakov Rupkin.

01:08:11.480 He didn't know anything about names.

01:08:13.680 He's a Jewish guy.

01:08:15.140 He was actually born in Leningrad right at the end of World War II, 1946,

01:08:20.600 uh but then went to canada uh he speaks four different languages he's a he's a professor

01:08:27.400 um uh you know he's a retired a professor emeritus but uh he he gave me the definition

01:08:35.220 of zionism zionism is this there is no god and that god gave us this land yeah yeah so it's like

01:08:44.840 it's hilarious because yeah most most israelis most israelis will sit there and tell you i'm

01:08:50.040 atheist and but then at the same time tell you that god promised them that land a couple thousand

01:08:54.580 years ago and you're like wait what this doesn't make sense yeah yeah exactly yeah you know i are

01:08:59.340 tracking let me ask you this because you come from the ic right and obviously ic is significantly

01:09:04.320 different than law enforcement i've had to explain to my audience a bunch of times

01:09:07.340 what are your thoughts on our relationship with israel from the intelligence perspective not

01:09:12.860 necessarily what the general public sees with our relationship but rather what is our relationship

01:09:18.200 with like Israel when it comes to the intel world do we um you know I've heard many stories where we

01:09:23.000 don't let them come into certain buildings they are notorious for placing bugs all this type of

01:09:27.200 stuff what are your thoughts on from that perspective don't trust them they're not a you

01:09:32.740 know there's no such thing as a friendly intelligence service uh you treat all

01:09:37.040 intelligence services as if they're trying to you know uh steal your secrets which is that's

01:09:42.440 john you know so uh john kiriaku yes who's a friend so john john's got the best description

01:09:49.900 of dealing with the israelis they they literally would not let the israelis anymore into cia

01:09:54.180 headquarters there in mclean virginia they met him at an off site so uh you know the the israelis

01:10:01.940 you know i've dealt with the israelis quite a bit over the years in different capacities

01:10:05.740 and the biggest problem is their arrogance so you know when you were when you were the hsi

01:10:12.820 you know you took fire you you were trained to shoot a pistol right of course so what did you

01:10:17.860 what did you guys carry glocks uh the issue when i was on the job was a six hour 229 deck

01:10:23.280 but you can get your own i carried a glock 19 every day and or 26 all right yeah so i i like

01:10:29.620 a sig 226 myself i hated it i hated it so i went and got myself a couple glocks and never looked

01:10:36.380 back okay i i understand yeah well you know the the problem with firearms is uh when you train

01:10:45.020 people the most important thing is not the knowledge not you need knowledge and not the

01:10:51.220 skill it's the attitude if you don't have the right attitude like if you know the right attitude

01:10:58.500 with a firearm is you always treat it as if it's loaded you don't ever assume that it's not loaded

01:11:04.480 until you verify and check what the israelis do and this is a sign of their both their arrogance

01:11:11.080 and their incompetence um they train their soldiers and their intelligence people to not

01:11:18.160 carry a chambered round yes that means a round that's in the chamber they carry so when they

01:11:23.920 draw they draw and then they quickly reciprocate the slide oh fast well i've been out on the range

01:11:30.300 we've tested that drawing firing with a chamber ground drawing firing when you and you can lose

01:11:35.820 up up to a second yeah well you know if you're in a life and death struggle a second can you know

01:11:40.580 leave you dead the reason the israelis do it that way is they don't trust the people that they've

01:11:48.020 trained to keep their damn finger off the trigger until they're pointed at something that they're

01:11:52.960 ready to shoot attitude yeah no i really like that you that you said that because that's not

01:11:59.660 many people know that i know that's like there's there's only certain elite uh individuals that

01:12:04.700 can carry a chambered round but yeah that's the normal policy with like the idf and everyone

01:12:08.600 that's a gun toter in israel is uh you you got it you can't carry one in the chamber which i

01:12:13.800 remember when i was on a job you had to carry one in the chamber it's against policy like if i got

01:12:17.860 a shooting and i didn't like they figured out that like i didn't like have one in the chamber

01:12:21.100 duty carry uh that you could get in trouble for that so um yeah well and again it gets it gets

01:12:26.760 back to you know everyone that i uh because i'm a firearms instructor and i train instructors

01:12:32.260 um the last if i'm not going to let a single student go out of my class unless i'm confident

01:12:39.520 that they know how to properly safely handle the gun don't point it at yourself don't point it at

01:12:45.160 anything you're not willing to kill or destroy and you keep your finger off the trigger until

01:12:49.660 you're pointed at the targets you intend to shoot simple you know not complicated it's not like a

01:12:55.140 mass you need to do pythagorean theorems or or advanced calculus it's like keep it loaded keep

01:13:02.700 your finger off the trigger and then when you're pointed at what you want to shoot shoot yeah well

01:13:06.740 the israelis don't do that so that's why you know the the arrogance of the israelis

01:13:11.920 they're really not they're not what i'd call teachable and when i was at state encounter

01:13:18.080 in the anti-terror in this counterterrorism office uh i was the deputy director of the

01:13:24.120 anti-terrorism assistance program so we actually had in this we would train police uh everybody

01:13:31.560 but military military training was handled by dod uh we found that the palestinians because the

01:13:38.420 we trained police for the palestinian authority they had great attitude man they were wonderful

01:13:44.160 to work with they followed directions they didn't cop attitude israelis on the other hand

01:13:50.700 uh you know sometimes like talking to a wall you can't tell me i know what i'm doing you know that

01:13:57.320 kind of thing yeah the fact they even have that policy i think it also another reason is because

01:14:01.160 they have so many ad's uh which is another reason because everyone has to join the military there

01:14:05.580 so you got like you know incompetent people right uh that don't want to don't have muzzle discipline

01:14:11.140 etc so good sorry i don't like i don't like the term ad i like nd negligent discharge

01:14:17.340 negligent discharge because it's not act unless okay unless you're carrying a sick 320 it might

01:14:23.940 be accidental but otherwise it's negligent yeah um so so we're so i think we're like in a very

01:14:30.820 pivotal time right now right we're talking about a potential land land invasion with the carg island

01:14:35.520 the Cargill Islands.

01:14:38.500 What do you think is going to happen from this point forward?

01:14:41.260 If you had to kind of speculate based on what's been going on so far,

01:14:45.440 what's been transpiring, does Trump have an off-ramp?

01:14:48.280 Are we going to have to put boots on the ground?

01:14:50.220 What are your thoughts on where we go from here?

01:14:52.780 Yeah, unfortunately, I think Trump is going to put boots on the ground,

01:14:57.220 which is just, you know, damn dangerous.

01:15:01.400 I'm afraid we're going to get a lot of really good guys killed.

01:15:04.260 Do you think this minor invasion is a test to test the waters to see what a more, I guess, bigger ground force can do?

01:15:12.620 No, the bigger ground force, they get sucked up in the mountains.

01:15:18.440 Is that a gross mountain? Unforgiving.

01:15:20.880 Yeah, right. So I just got a note from Doug McGregor.

01:15:27.080 Okay.

01:15:27.340 If you know, yeah, McGregor. Yeah. He said that this is just in Iran is told the United States it will not resume talks with Wyckoff and Kushner.

01:15:37.360 If they're going to talk to anybody, they'll talk to Vice President J.D. Vance.

01:15:41.560 You know, you know what? You come from the State Department. So this is actually beautiful. Let me ask you this.

01:15:46.460 I thought it was really weird that Wyckoff and Kushner were the ones negotiating in the Middle East.

01:15:53.180 And I'm like, this is Marco Rubio's job.

01:15:55.420 Like, why are these guys over here having these nuclear talks, et cetera?

01:15:59.260 Like, you know, and both of these guys obviously have a, you know, it's a conflict of interest, a significant conflict of interest.

01:16:05.680 So how are these guys being the ones that negotiate?

01:16:07.820 And then another thing I also, and I'd love to get your take on this, too.

01:16:11.080 I was watching, I was on stream and I showed my audience how the negotiator in Oman, who was going back and forth between the rooms, between the Iranians and Kushner Wyckoff.

01:16:20.440 they basically had a deal in place that was better than what obama had with the jcpoa

01:16:24.680 so like yeah you know what are your thoughts on that and then christopher in general again we

01:16:32.340 were we were sold a lie that all the jcpoa was a terrible terrible agreement really so here's

01:16:39.200 what iran agreed to iran agreed to limit enrichment to 20 it agreed that it would remain as a member

01:16:47.500 of the nonproliferation treaty organization that would allow iaea inspectors access to all of its

01:16:55.140 nuclear sites to inspect to verify that they weren't building a nuke and then what the europeans

01:17:02.480 failed to release that was all being done in exchange for sanctions relief nope europe and

01:17:08.340 the united states refused to provide sanction relief as they had agreed to and then trump

01:17:12.880 trump tore up the agreement yep well so stupid again that set the chain of events that we're at

01:17:18.660 now like it's ridiculous him pompeo labeling the irgc as a terrorist organization like the abraham

01:17:25.760 accords all of these different factors like you know led to what we're dealing with now

01:17:29.960 yeah well and you know people want to pretend that the religious uh commitment of something

01:17:37.920 like the Ayatollah Khamenei, who's now dead, was not real.

01:17:42.700 But as I mentioned earlier, during the Iraq war with Iran,

01:17:49.560 when chemical weapons were being used against Iran,

01:17:52.040 you know, if somebody used chemical weapons against us,

01:17:54.480 our inclination would be, well, damn it, we're going to use them back at you.

01:17:59.340 The Iranians never did that.

01:18:01.460 And the reason they didn't is because of, at the time,

01:18:05.280 it was the Ayatollah Khamenei, and he said, it's a sin. We are not going to commit that sin against

01:18:14.780 God. And it's the same thing that the Ayatollah Khamenei said. He issued the fatwa more than 20

01:18:23.800 years ago, that Iran will not build a nuke because it is a sin against God. And so who do we kill?

01:18:33.240 we kill the one guy that's saying it's a sin don't do it yeah we killed committee to get committee but

01:18:40.700 this new committee doesn't uh wants nuclear bombs it's crazy dude it's nuts yeah well he made one i

01:18:46.720 mean look look at what we did we we killed his father we killed his mother we killed his wife

01:18:53.080 and we killed his baby daughter yeah would you if somebody did that to you would you want to kill

01:18:59.240 them back you bet your ass you would i know i would yeah you know and i and i got an argument

01:19:04.460 with someone about this because i said you know i asked them look are you a pro 2a yeah i am okay

01:19:08.800 do you believe in you know the pursuit of happiness and the ability to protect your property life and

01:19:13.000 freedoms yes and i was like okay so don't get mad at the iranians for defending themselves i mean

01:19:18.120 look this is just the reality you know we are the aggressor here this is a war of choice and i love

01:19:23.760 this country but we have to be honest like you know both of us are american patriots we served

01:19:27.320 this country we took an oath to this country and i think you know if we're gonna truly um be a

01:19:32.900 better nation we need to be honest about bad foreign policy and this is something that you

01:19:37.340 know at this point enough is enough like these middle eastern wars are a waste you know well

01:19:41.840 yeah well i was you know i was i grew up i i hate bullies uh and my father taught me to always fight

01:19:48.040 against bullies uh in my heritage you know my family actually my ancestors started showing up

01:19:54.320 here around 1620 okay so we got well over 400 years uh in country and uh my fifth great uncle

01:20:04.900 was a guy named charles thompson who was the secretary of the continental congress

01:20:11.140 and he was the one who kept the declaration of independence in his possession for 18 years

01:20:19.040 Wow. Until Washington, D.C. was opened and it finally was delivered to what we now know as the National Archives. So, you know, I consider myself a patriotic American. But what I have to step back and look at is how many countries has Iran invaded or attacked in the last 46 years? And the answer is none.

01:20:43.000 how many countries have we attacked and invaded in the last 46 years okay get out your calculator

01:20:50.400 yeah so many talk to the people panama libya somalia uh yugoslavia uh afghanistan iraq twice

01:21:02.240 um you know and so and now iran and syria let's not forget syria so at some point we need to look

01:21:11.200 in the mirror and say you know what we may be the problem yeah we need we keep finding excuses to

01:21:17.880 attack other people let's go back vietnam yeah you know and then all the all the horror we ended

01:21:24.680 up causing in places like cambodia yeah i'm for you know let's let's mind our own business do it

01:21:31.520 you know do what your mom and dad told you when you were growing up keep your hands to yourself

01:21:34.860 you know if you had brothers and sisters you know you start but you know keep your hands to yourself

01:21:39.080 Don't don't start smacking anybody else. Yeah. Intervention. Sorry, go ahead.

01:21:44.780 No, I just I think that's a good that's a good principle of foreign policy to follow.

01:21:48.820 Absolutely. And not letting the Israelis dictate. Let me ask you this.

01:21:54.020 I've been watching some of your videos as far as, you know, interceptors.

01:21:58.100 You've you've been really spot on with, you know, estimating how many each location has.

01:22:04.000 we know that the interceptors are significantly more expensive than obviously the drones and the

01:22:08.280 ballistic missiles that the iranians are firing right this is kind of you know it's just a bad

01:22:12.200 this is really bad uh you know economics when it comes to warfare on against us what are your

01:22:18.120 thoughts on um interceptors because if i don't if i recall correctly about last week or the week

01:22:23.500 prior there was reports that the gulf states probably had maybe another week or so of um

01:22:30.180 of interceptors so what are your thoughts on the gulf states um stockpile right now and the

01:22:35.060 israelis well they're so let's deal with the the two main interceptors that we have

01:22:41.040 are the patriot missile which shoots a pack three it replaced something called the pack two so

01:22:47.640 the pack three started being produced in 2015 and i didn't have to get classified information to

01:22:53.920 figure this out uh it was simply you know the the budgets you know when congress passes a budget

01:22:59.420 there's a line item for how many of these we're going to produce so between um the numbers were

01:23:07.740 between 2015 and 2020 uh were roughly it said 100 to 300 a year so i took the higher number let's

01:23:17.100 just let's be generous let's say 300 a year so that's six years that's 1800 and then from 21 22

01:23:24.840 23, 24, those four years, the number was about 550 a year. So that's 2,200. Okay, 2,200, 1,800,

01:23:34.700 4,000. And then in 2025, we produced 620. So we're now at 4,620. That's total that's been produced

01:23:44.860 of that PAC-3. And then when you sit down and do the math, if you've got a Russian Iskander

01:23:52.300 missile coming at you or an Iranian Fakhan missile coming at you, you're going to fire at a minimum

01:23:58.520 two Patriot missiles. So just do the math. If you've got a total of 4,620, that means you can

01:24:07.380 shoot down 2,310 missiles. Well, guess what? Iran's already fired over 2,000 missiles over

01:24:16.460 the course of the last four weeks four and a half weeks and we we've given a thousand of that 4620

01:24:23.580 to um to ukraine oh yeah you know ukraine and no no telling how many we so the bottom line is

01:24:32.280 we're out of missiles yeah and it's not like you know not like you go flip the switches yeah let's

01:24:37.320 start producing them so we have run a 3d by your estimations we have roughly 1 000 once ukraine

01:24:43.820 we got roughly 3 000 between the gulf and israel yeah okay well actually less than that because

01:24:51.540 there are about a thousand of those that are out at indopacom the command out of hawaii

01:24:59.260 so you know roughly let's say that between and we're not even counting what israel fired last

01:25:08.100 june yeah they fired off a boatload last june so they lost 25 oh just just off that they lost 25

01:25:14.520 so we're depleted now on that the same with the fad the terminal high altitude area defense weapon

01:25:21.380 and you go back to the cost i've seen different the cost for the for the pack three was between

01:25:28.140 four million and six million uh so you're gonna fire two of those that's 12 million dollars to

01:25:33.640 bringing down a fifty thousand dollar drone yeah it's just horrible war economics yeah and the

01:25:39.980 fad that is even more it's like 12 million 12 13 million dollars yeah what are your thoughts so

01:25:46.320 based on the numbers and crunching everything and by the way for my audience that's watching guys

01:25:49.920 i'm gonna turn off youtube here in a second we're gonna go everybody come to kick we're brought

01:25:53.140 we've got roughly almost four or five thousand people watching live right now uh but guys we're

01:25:57.440 gonna get off youtube here in a second and go go to kick so link is there so get ready to switch

01:26:01.440 over so larry with your and and let me know larry if you have to go uh soon um i need to go in about

01:26:07.980 10 minutes okay in about 10 minutes okay so uh how much longer do you think the with the gulf

01:26:14.700 um is going to be able to intercept and then how much longer you think the israelis are going to

01:26:17.840 be able to do it uh well they can't intercept anymore that's what i'm saying they're so you

01:26:23.560 think they're completely out at this point where they're cooked yeah yeah okay yeah they're drained

01:26:28.420 and that's why in fact you've seen ukraine actually you create you've seen iran step up

01:26:35.780 its missile launches yeah there's firing less but they're still hitting really hard now they're

01:26:40.220 using bigger warheads it's like they're starting to cause some real damage and i think the israeli

01:26:44.580 censorship is going down so well that's why do you think the israeli censors finally lifted the

01:26:50.100 censorship because they're taking such a pounding yeah and now they're trying now they're trying to

01:26:54.720 get the sympathy vote yeah oh look they're attacking civilians oh good god there's a couple

01:26:59.940 that's all israel's been doing there's a couple of guys that i follow and like yeah it's like

01:27:03.380 clockwork they get hit they go to a civilian area and say look they're destroying a civilian

01:27:06.720 structure but they won't show you all the strategic locations that are getting hit

01:27:09.560 you know right so that's and so that's where i that's where i think iran is focused right now

01:27:14.920 they're the doing the strategic hits um we're gonna we're gonna see if uh uh i don't think

01:27:22.940 iran iran's not willing to sit down and negotiate they're not going to agree to a ceasefire now

01:27:29.260 you can argue one of the demands for iran has been okay lift the sanctions well it looks like

01:27:36.120 scott bessett lifted the sanctions at donald trump's direction yeah so you know they're not

01:27:41.340 having to worry about that now so um as far as what do you think is uh because i did see when

01:27:46.440 they were getting bombed yesterday i did see interceptors go out there but it seems like and

01:27:49.380 i've seen a couple videos where um these ballistic missiles i ran and shooting they're like literally

01:27:53.180 going like i mean i'm assuming they're probably the hypersonics the fatta one fatta two like as

01:27:58.540 as interceptors are coming up i've seen videos of 10 interceptors and the ballistic missile from

01:28:03.620 the iranians still got through it's twisting and everything and you know it jokes them and bam it

01:28:07.660 hits so maybe so you would say that at this point all the primary air defense gone iron dome david

01:28:15.820 slaying arrow they don't have anything left at this point yeah they're they're they're depleted

01:28:22.580 essentially depleted you know the other day um hezbollah launched a four-hour barrage that all

01:28:30.200 all of them got through and israel wasn't able to intercept any of them so whenever you hear

01:28:36.220 the story oh yeah we've intercepted 90 yeah i think they've got some problems with math yeah

01:28:42.080 what are your thoughts and real quick guys i'm ending the youtube stream now come on over to

01:28:45.360 to kick guys come on kick.com slash mindgainsex i have it right there i don't want to answer

The Debrief With MyronGainesX - March 24, 2026

Former DHS Special Agent And Former CIA Analyst Larry Johnson Discuss The US⧸Israel-Iran War!

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