The economy is strong, the country added 250,000 jobs last month, and all expectations were slipping before they were smashed. The country is now comfortably living on $10,000 a year, better than it was in the second term of President Obama, and wages are finally rising.
00:05:22.600Now, if you could just get the Democrats to condemn the violent left, the groups like Antifa, I think the crime rate might go down even further.
00:05:46.960This is contrary to American values and principles.
00:05:50.620I don't think they have any ground to stand on when they fail to condemn people like Antifa and Louis Farrakhan.
00:06:01.540But in many cases, they actually support these people.
00:06:06.460In the case of Farrakhan, the leaders of the biggest resistance, hashtag resistance, the social justice organizers, the Women's March, have ties to Louis Farrakhan.
00:06:17.340Obama has now been caught talking, taking candid photos with him.
00:06:22.800Representatives Keith Ellison, Barbara Lee of California, Maxine Waters, Danny Davis in Illinois, Andre Carson in Indiana, Gregory Meeks in New York and Al Green in Texas.
00:06:34.200They all have ties to Louis Farrakhan.
00:06:38.400This is not a guy that preaches peace.
00:06:40.840This is not a guy that says, hey, let's get together with the Jews.
00:06:54.660He was just in Iran on Sunday leading death to America chants.
00:06:59.500And many people in the Democratic Party were standing with him recently at speeches.
00:07:06.160I don't mean the the funeral of Aretha Franklin, where they made all kinds of excuses why they would stand next to this man.
00:07:15.860I'm talking about his actual anti-Semitic speeches.
00:07:20.480The left actually has the ball to say anyone at all is inferior to them when it comes to American ideals.
00:07:27.580Really, there's a lot more I could add to this list, but these three alone in a more rational time would be enough to guarantee or practically guarantee an Election Day landslide.
00:07:42.820I'm not saying that these facts are comfortable for our friends on the left, but they are indisputable.
00:09:44.840They're very difficult to do, to predict these things.
00:09:47.400I'm curious as your thoughts of one of the big conversations going on inside Republican circles, as this election day is here, is the last sort of messaging of the campaign.
00:10:02.680There was a discussion between, reportedly, between high ups in the administration and in the Republican Party of wanting to go the direction of what you just did, which was, hey, great economy.
00:10:20.160Hey, we've got a lot of, you know, deregulation, lots of success.
00:10:24.160Look at all the good things that have happened in the last two years.
00:10:26.160Essentially, are you better off now than you were two years ago?
00:10:28.580And Trump went instead, and not just him, but other people in the administration, decided to go more towards the, hey, caravan, look at the caravan, look at some of these other things.
00:11:12.400He has unbelievable instincts on how to work the press and how to capture attention.
00:11:20.860You know, he is, you know, what people don't point out about Donald Trump is he had bigger crowds than Barack Obama did in 2008.
00:11:31.260And that's saying something in 2016, he was drawing the kind of crowds and I believe bigger crowds in the run up to the election of his presidency than Barack Obama.
00:11:52.140However, Barack Obama's crowds, once he was president, that went away, that just went away.
00:11:58.040And one of the reasons why I think it went away is he turned out to be an establishment guy for the extreme left, for the people that were really excited about transformative change.
00:12:09.620We were freaking out about how much changed, but that's not, it wasn't enough for the people who came out in droves.
00:12:17.480And so he was playing to half empty stadiums.
00:12:20.360You'll see that this president is not only the, the, the second to draw those kinds of crowds in the run up.
00:12:52.860However, Mr. President, uh, every time somebody says something's wrong and you decide to go the other way, when it comes to the public and knowing what the winning strategy is to, to, to win and to beat, you're always right.
00:13:15.680So it's supposedly he pulled off a $6 million ad buy praising the economy and he rejected it reportedly.
00:13:23.420Um, the other thing that's interesting is he has inserted himself into the campaign overtly, which is not what normal, normally what presidents do.
00:13:30.820Normally presidents are, well, look, these are individual races.
00:13:33.960They don't want to necessarily be the focus of the campaign.
00:13:37.020He's come out and said, this campaign is about me.
00:17:05.000If you use the promo code BECK, you're going to get an extra 10% off of your first year plus a $25 Amazon gift card with annual enrollment.
00:17:12.320That is promo code BECK, promo code BECK, at 1-800-LIFELOCK or LifeLock.com.
00:17:19.340I think it's interesting when we're talking about the strategy here, the closing argument.
00:17:28.120A lot of people in the media are saying, oh, he's just trying to scare people.
00:17:33.740And I don't think that that's a fair summary of what Trump has decided to do when bringing up things like, you know, the caravan and making that into more of an issue than, let's say, the economy.
00:17:45.580Well, yeah, first of all, it's a legitimate issue, and it is something that, you know, Republicans and conservative voters really care about.
00:17:52.100But when it comes to a motivator, it's the economy stupid I don't think is right anymore.
00:17:57.700I think people need that emotional driver, and the biggest motivator there is is fear.
00:18:05.420Now, fear connected to a real issue is something that has been used in politics forever.
00:18:09.740It's not like, you know, it's not like he's just saying, you know, something that's not true.
00:18:20.920So using that as a motivator, and it is tied to fear that we're not going to be able to handle it, fear that the other side won't take it seriously, fear that we might let in a criminal element, which we've even seen them admit that there are criminals in this caravan.
00:18:36.660So before we get into a deeper discussion of fear, let me ask you this.
00:18:42.160Which do you think the American people fear more?
00:18:49.020Do you think that they see the economy the way it's going, and they feel good, and they feel like we're making progress, and they believe that the House and the Senate, or at least the House, has had anything to do with this?
00:19:05.280Or do they think that that's Donald Trump?
00:19:08.200I think most people think that's Donald Trump.
00:19:12.320So if you're talking about, hey, we can't let the Democrats win the House, most people are not connecting their fear of losing this feeling of prosperity by a loss of a House because they got that guy in there.
00:19:30.520That's probably, I would say, a lot of people do believe that.
00:19:33.260Okay, so the bigger fear is, and I think, again, I think it's valid, the bigger fear is, these guys are going to get in, they never built the wall, they didn't do these things.
00:19:46.440When Donald Trump says, this is about me, that's not an ego statement.
00:19:50.980That is addressing this question that I'm asking you about fear.
00:20:03.880And stopping me stops what we're doing on the economy, stops the judges, stops what's happening at the border.
00:20:14.420Most people will look at the Democrats and Congress, forget about parties, they will look at Congress as the biggest impediment to securing the border, not the president, the Congress.
00:20:32.800And so when he says, look at what's coming our way, and it's real, you can see it.
00:20:40.620Now, Democrats, I shouldn't say this, team players, party players, the Republicans that are just, that win at all costs, doesn't really matter what the truth is, they would hype up anything.
00:20:54.060Same with the Democrats, they would deny anything, the devil could be on our border going, I'm coming for you.
00:21:01.440And they would say, oh, that's just a guy with a deep voice and people with red skin, red skin and pointy tail, but don't worry about it.
00:21:09.220Okay, so nobody's listening, nobody's listening to that.
00:21:13.660The American people can see this caravan, and they've made up their own mind.
00:21:19.060And I think Donald Trump is playing on that, because it's more of a real, tangible, logical fear to the American people that if you change Congress, this is what's coming.
00:21:35.780And I won't be able to help, because I want to build the wall.
00:21:40.280Let me go deeper on fear here in a second.
00:21:50.020Welcome to Pat Gray from Pat Gray Unleashed, which precedes this program on the Blaze Radio Network and television.
00:21:57.100And he's going to be joining us for our coverage tonight.
00:22:00.140I am the designated driver, and if Pat leaves a little early and has to pour somebody into their car, or his car, he's also the designated driver.
00:24:30.560And I think it's so much better than taking polls, because what you're doing is people are putting their money where their mouth is.
00:24:38.780And so if you can get this prediction market up high enough with enough participation, you're going to have some pretty good, accurate polls, because people don't want to lose money.
00:24:49.380And so it'll just kind of all come out.
00:25:59.860If you look at just the polls, it's about 19%.
00:26:02.160When you factor in the fundamentals, when you're talking about fundraising and where the states voted in the past, all that, you're at 12%.
00:26:09.340And then when you factor in the forecasts from experts, it gets to about 14%.
00:29:16.420And I think there were people that were pissed on both sides with Ted Cruz during the last election.
00:29:25.060When it comes down to it, I think there's going to be a bigger spread than we think, which would prove, I think, my theory correct, that people aren't willing to say it, but they're just going to go and do it.
00:30:14.560My feeling on this is when it comes to the balance of power, there's enough in West Virginia that wants to say, I don't know, I want that union protection.
00:30:33.840I want that protection there of a Democrat.
00:30:37.720And look, I think we can come up with arguments for every one of these races.
00:30:41.640For example, Trump only won Texas by nine.
00:30:43.800It was not a blowout like it was in West Virginia in Texas.
00:30:46.520And the fact that it could be five or six or closer is not out of the realm of possibility.
00:30:50.640And I think every one of these races, we can come up with an argument as to why the Republican is underperforming the theoretical place they should be.
00:34:44.680Now, if you are looking for something that is going to keep your home safe, your business safe, your family safe, somebody breaks a window, opens a window, opens a door.
00:34:54.700Simply safe will alarm will alert you and then alert the police or the fire department, whichever is the most appropriate.
00:35:01.800And you can take a sledgehammer to this thing.
00:36:34.180And you never know if you're doing the right thing.
00:36:37.080Um, we, you know, we've obviously prayed about it and feel we did the right thing, but it's so hard.
00:36:42.260And it was really, really hard on everybody yesterday.
00:36:45.360And I appreciate your thoughts and prayers and your your call, Terry.
00:36:49.700Um, I got a note this morning from Tanya and she said, um, Uno never ate until Ella was finished eating.
00:36:59.120And, uh, then Ella would go sit next to the Ottoman in the living room and, uh, Tanya would always have to stand there and, and, uh, and be around Uno when he ate.
00:37:10.200And she said this morning he wouldn't eat.
00:37:13.080He, uh, just went into the living room and, uh, laid down where she always laid down.
00:37:17.980Um, um, and, uh, so, you know, now we just have to help him through the, uh, loss of, of his best friend as well.
00:37:28.060But Terry, thank you so much for your phone call.
00:38:27.800We want to tell you about our sponsor, uh, home title lock.
00:38:33.120This is the company that Stu, I think, found, uh, a few months back and, um, and, and, you know, found it and then, you know, went and called the number and, and, and, and signed up for the service and then came in and said, you have to hear this.
00:38:48.140They became sponsors of his and they did the same thing to me.
00:38:52.180You can lose your house overnight and you can't believe how easy it is.
00:38:57.800For someone to steal your, your home title.
00:39:02.100They, they just showed us these documents.
00:39:03.840Here are the documents we would need to do to take your title and we could do it right now.
00:39:07.140If we wanted to obviously thank God they're not criminals, uh, but they do know how easy it is and they can protect you from it just for pennies a day.
00:39:14.340It's home title lock.com is the place to go.
00:39:16.340Now, if you have a rental property or an elderly relative, or you just own a home, this may have already happened to you.
00:39:21.920You want to make sure that it, that it's not the case.
00:41:47.760They're willing to take to the streets with firebombs on the extreme left.
00:41:51.780We have to remember that the democratic response, the only truly meaningful way to respond, to respond is by voting.
00:42:01.040Linda Sarsour and her gang of provocateurs can interrupt a hundred more Supreme Court nomination hearings, but they will never accomplish as much as one person who votes.
00:42:19.260I'm for your right to peacefully assemble.
00:42:22.840But what we've seen over the past two years, since the exact moment that Donald Trump was elected, is a sorry excuse for freedom of speech.
00:42:34.120It's often driven by a desire to do away with free speech as we know it.
00:42:38.160What's happening on our campuses should frighten every single person in America, left and right.
00:42:43.840I'm sorry, Democrat and Republican to the core.
00:44:24.680I mean, I just think the world is not ready for what the Democrats, and when I say this, I want to make sure that people understand.
00:44:37.280When I say the Democrats, I mean the Democrats in Washington that have sold their soul to the Uber left.
00:44:43.640I mean, when you have Linda Sarsour and Keith Ellison, who worked for Louis Farrakhan, when you have them running the DNC and the Women's March,
00:44:56.240and they're accepted by the mainstream media and by the mainstream Democratic Party, you have problems.
00:45:04.660Let me play Louis Farrakhan just this weekend in Iran.
00:45:10.040Is it not true that you have called America the great Satan?
00:45:18.260Well, if you believe what you say, then would not Satan be actively involved in trying to destroy a nation that is set up on the belief and practice of submission to the will of God?
00:45:38.200So we should not be surprised at what Satan does to ill-affect the righteous.
00:45:47.420All that your elders have sacrificed will mean nothing if you do not pick up the revolution and carry it forward.
00:45:59.540America is making it very hard for Iran to successfully carry out its mission.
00:46:09.200But if you have the strength to persevere under these hard trials, the victory will be yours.
00:46:45.660Is there anything as you look back at your first almost two years that you regret that you wish on you that you could just take back and redo?
00:47:19.780But this is this is the one thing that I would like Democrats to hear.
00:47:24.760And I would like Republicans to hear it as well.
00:47:27.900Donald Trump is a response to what the left and the media has been shoveling for the last, I don't even know, 20 years, at least the last 10, 20, 30 years.
00:47:44.100Just been shoveling it and shoveling it and stoking the fire and stoking the fire and throw more coal on the fire.
00:50:49.280I live pretty close to Pittsburgh, and most of the country doesn't know where West Virginia is.
00:50:54.960The only thing they know about West Virginia is maybe Cole, Joe Manchin, and WVU Mountaineers.
00:51:00.160It's why I didn't come up to see you in Pittsburgh because they were playing.
00:51:05.060But when we have somebody on the national stage like Manchin or Bird, it seems like people in the state will keep them in power because it empowers us throughout the rest of the country.
00:51:28.280They're huge for Trump, but they're local for the Congress.
00:51:33.960Now, so, you know, my statement was earlier that it is that there is this blue heritage there, especially with the unions and coal and everything else.
00:52:20.700But anyway, Joe played the rope dope and just let Morrissey put out his ad.
00:52:27.400And then at the ninth hour, he came out with his ads, calling Morrissey a carpetbagger, and that he was a lobbyist for the opioids, which is a huge problem in this state.
00:52:38.000And I think it's resonating because I know family members that are diehard Trumpists who were going to vote for Morrissey, and now they're switching back over to Joe.
00:52:49.320John, thank you so much for your phone call from West Virginia.
00:53:22.740What I couldn't deal with is her being, you know, doing a show with a 9-11 truther and, you know, being essentially a code pink level activist.
00:53:54.600Stock market is preparing for just about anything.
00:53:58.280And tonight, the stock market will move one way or another, I think.
00:54:01.540Now is the real opportunity to get in front of the price increase or the collapse of the stock market and the price increase of gold if the Democrats win the House.
00:54:18.920President Trump has been warning about the risk to everyone if Republicans lose, you know, the houses of Congress or at least just even the House.
00:56:22.460Well, he has obviously changed, and he's doing almost everything as a conservative, with an exception of things that he has a long record of, and he said he was going to do anyway, which was the tariffs.
00:56:35.220But everything else, he's starting to be the president, or he came in office being the president.
00:57:03.660So, but my thought on this is his problem was not with the Republican people.
00:57:10.880His problem was with the party, and the party is all over the map and stupid, and he is connected with the people and the conservative American way of the people.
00:57:25.460That's, I think, perhaps always been him, and the people, when he said last night, you know, I didn't do this.
00:59:27.600We'll have all the late breaking returns, what the outlook is.
00:59:32.080We're going to really follow the control of the Senate and the House, but also a lot of the key races, even as governors and ballot measures and things like that.
00:59:42.120I mean, I think there's like 16 or 17 people who are going to be popping in for various pieces of commentary, some experts, some really good commentators.
00:59:50.620I think you're going to really enjoy it.
00:59:51.860Good thing is, I can promise you it's going to be nothing like MSNBC's coverage.
01:00:24.520They're saying that's the I think that's the name of it.
01:00:26.400Ever since the mysterious space object was observed tumbling past the sun in last last 20, the last part of 2017, giving its given its high speed and its unusual trajectory.
01:00:41.180The reddish stadium size, whatever it is, had clearly come from outside of our solar system, but it is flattened and has an elongated shape.
01:00:52.740And the way it is accelerated on its way through our solar system has set it apart from conventional asteroids and comments a comments.
01:01:01.620Now, a pair of Harvard researchers are raising the possibility that this is an alien spacecraft.
01:01:09.060They say in a paper to be published November 12th in the Astrophysical Journal letters, the object may be a fully operational probe sent intentionally to Earth's vicinity by an alien civilization.
01:01:26.520The researchers aren't claiming outright that aliens sent this ship, but after careful, careful mathematical analysis of the way the interstellar object sped up as it shot past the sun, they say it could be a spacecraft through pushed through space by light falling on its surface.
01:01:49.280Or, as they put it in the paper, a light sail of artificial origin.
01:01:59.520Just when you thought things couldn't get weirder.
01:02:07.100I can tell you, NBC News, if they find out it's an alien, they'll be like, uh, well, uh, do you believe what Trump's doing about this alien?
01:02:14.920I can't believe what Kellyanne Conway just said about the alien spaceship.
01:03:20.440He said that this would help the economy because everyone would...
01:03:22.800If we just fake an alien attack, then we'll all work together and we'll spend a lot of money on an alien defense and that will help the economy.
01:08:21.160And the guy did that for a little while and ran for mayor and had all the support from local leaders in the area on the left and made it to mayor.
01:08:35.500You know, Tallahassee, Leon County has the highest crime in the state of Florida.
01:08:41.580That in just the last, I think it was the last two or three years, we've made that, reached that pinnacle of having the highest crime rate, even worse in South Florida.
01:08:56.660Tallahassee has the highest crime rate.
01:08:58.240Leon County has the highest crime rate out of any county in Florida.
01:09:01.940Now, it's not necessarily just, it's not violent crime as much as it is all other break-ins, burglaries, you know, all that kind of stuff, which crime is still crime.
01:09:12.080But since he's, you know, cleaned up Tallahassee so well, he wants to go ahead and finish off the rest of the state.
01:09:18.520So what is it that people are connecting with?
01:09:49.900I mean, there's FBI investigation all about him in Tallahassee with campaign funds as well as corruption.
01:09:56.240I mean, the guy took tickets for a Broadway show from an FBI informant and gave money to him, thinking he was a developer, to develop the Edison, which is a higher-end restaurant here in Tallahassee, not far from the downtown Capitol complex.
01:10:26.660Yeah, but I think they're, Your Honor, around here they're pushing the, you know, he'll be the first black governor if he's elected, and that goes to what you were saying about, you know, let's, it's the Barack Obama approach of, if I vote for him, then clearly I'm not racist.
01:10:41.200I'm part of history, and I'm not a racist.
01:11:03.820He's talking about corruption among officials that are likely going to get elected.
01:11:07.820Bob Menendez avoided prison, this is from Phil Kirpin, because his defense lawyer hung a jury with the argument,
01:11:13.060and this is a real quote, that gifts to cultivate a friendship are not bribes.
01:11:19.020The guy who was giving him the gifts, all the gifts going to Menendez, was a Palm Beach eye doctor who stole $100 million from Medicare and such.
01:11:29.760He was convicted on 67 counts of fraud.
01:11:33.040He actually put seniors through surgeries they didn't need to scam money,
01:11:38.700and he wound up giving a bunch of these gifts, quote-unquote gifts, to Menendez.
01:11:45.700Menendez then tried to get rid of the Medicare fraud investigation.
01:11:50.560He escalated it all the way to the HHS secretary, tried to ask her to allow this doctor's overbilling.
01:11:57.540He then tried to block donations of equipment to the Dominican Republic because his friend had business there,
01:14:02.120So in her time as, you know, Congresswoman here in our district, she's done a really great job for, you know, military affairs for all the military presence we have here in Southern Arizona, which is quite a bit, and veterans affairs and the like.
01:14:16.500But she's like Ted Cruz in a lot of ways, because she just doesn't lack, she kind of lacks the charisma and the persona that people would gravitate towards, even though she has been so solid on these issues.
01:16:00.820Hey, it's Glenn, and I want to tell you about something that you should either end your day with or start your morning with, and that is the news and why it matters.
01:16:12.860If you like this show, you're going to love the news and why it matters.
01:16:16.320It's a bunch of us that all get together at the end of the day and just talk about the stories that matter to you and your life.
01:16:38.320I was born and raised in Mount Vernon, Skagit County, so I just wanted to drop that in and give a shout out to my parents and Cedral Woolley.
01:16:50.720So anyways, I've lived in Texas now 30 years.
01:16:53.780I'm a former ICE agent, and I was in my local Starbucks in Grand Prairie this morning, and there was a lady in there that was wearing—she was full of Beto O'Rourke buttons.
01:17:02.500She was passing out stickers and, I guess, trying to get people to take them to vote.
01:17:06.420She had a computer, and she practically crammed these stickers down my throat.
01:17:10.700And so I called Starbucks corporate shortly after that about an hour ago to see if they had approved or sanctioned this, and they said that they couldn't even comment that each store manager sets their own policies.
01:17:23.220And so I asked, well, what if someone wanted to hold a Ku Klux Klan rally?
01:18:13.760I don't want politics in my entire life.
01:18:16.480I'd like it where I'm getting my politics from a political talk show or from a political meeting or at the poll when I'm going there to actually vote.
01:18:28.480Not for not not not in every aspect of my life.
01:18:41.780DARPA got into a lot of trouble right after 2001 because they said we should do a predicted market, a predictive market for terror attacks.
01:18:52.540And we'll have all of the terrorist organization, not terrorist organization.
01:18:55.920Sorry, all the anti terrorist organizations around the world actually put money into a predictive market and say, we think this is where it's going to go.
01:19:18.800Now, the polls got it pretty correct last time.
01:19:22.060Yeah, there was definitely some state level errors.
01:19:23.820The national polls were very close, actually, when you go look back and look at them.
01:19:28.220And people were fooled by that because they were looking at the Electoral College, which is something the poll wasn't exactly trying to predict.
01:19:34.660But, you know, obviously, Donald Trump won the election and most people didn't expect that.
01:19:38.820In fact, I remember you could you could make five over five times your money betting on Donald Trump on Election Day.
01:22:04.180And then with some possibility of picking up Ohio.
01:22:06.560Also, that's that's that's a little bit of a of a farther reach.
01:22:10.160But, you know, overall, traders are giving, let's see, about a 13 percent chance that that the Democrats do manage to capture the Senate.
01:22:26.040Interestingly, they give still well over a 30 percent chance that Republicans actually managed to keep the House,
01:22:33.000despite the fact that, you know, the expert prognosticators have been dwindling their their chances on that that outcome down to the now single digits or low double digits.
01:22:43.180So we see a real divergence here in terms of what people who are putting their money on the line expect.
01:22:48.320They're still calling for the House to go to the Democrats, but by nowhere near the margins that that the polls and pundits are saying,
01:22:56.020you know, that it's locked up, it still does appear to be very much in contention.
01:23:00.600And whereas the Senate does appear to be more of, you know, more of a fait accompli for the Republicans to hold or even slightly expand the majority.
01:23:41.920The experts are saying, you know, Democrats have a slight advantage.
01:23:45.280We're actually we're actually got that at more like 60 40 against McCaskill.
01:23:50.160And the same thing in in Indiana, where we have we have that closer to a jump ball.
01:23:56.020But but Braun slightly favored over Donnelly, which, again, is at which is at odds with what the experts are saying.
01:24:03.360So this might have something to do with the fact that, you know, if you look historically,
01:24:08.900the the polling error in particular on midterms does tend to favor Democrats by a couple of points.
01:24:17.080So, you know, to the extent that the punditry is informed by the polling,
01:24:22.140despite the fact that there was a little bit of a systemic polling error favoring Democrats in 2016 as well.
01:24:28.680You know, it's yet to be seen whether that that effect still exists.
01:24:32.380Traders seem to be suggesting that they believe there is still some measure of a systemic pro-democratic polling edge that'll be washed out of it on on Election Day.
01:24:44.020And so you'll see slightly better net Republican results.
01:24:47.460And, of course, with with closely divided House and Senate, you know, that one or two points of systemic polling error can make the difference when it comes to who gets the gavel.
01:24:58.320And to Stu's point, you know, are there more Republicans on predicted that actually shouldn't be a problem, should it?
01:25:05.620Because people are are not voting for what they want to happen.
01:25:09.240They're they're actually they're actually putting their money down on the table for what they think is going to happen.
01:25:17.780That presumably one's financial incentive would outweigh their their political bias.
01:25:22.220But we've actually found, interestingly, that because we looked a while back to see if Democrats or Republicans tended to do better in terms of their returns on on predicted.
01:25:32.200And we found that between Republicans and Democrats may actually perform roughly evenly.
01:25:38.600So to the extent people can't, you know, can't get past their political biases, even when their money is on the line, it should at least come out in the wash to some extent where where one side's bias is outweighing the others.
01:25:51.080We found, however, that really interestingly, independents or unaffiliated did better than both Republicans and Democrats.
01:25:58.760So it does suggest that there is some, you know, some unremovable political bias to your pure trading activity, even even when you should be able to to to to separate the two and making decisions that are going to affect you financially.
01:26:13.240But we did find that those independents were somewhat anecdotally.
01:26:18.240This is early on in the site. We ran this analysis, but but at least showed that by and large, independents tended to child perform partisans, at least mildly.
01:26:26.980So, Flip, I'm I'm fascinated with things that I'm fascinated with creative destruction.
01:26:33.320And I think you have the way of just, you know, the creative destruction for polls as they're taken now, as they're getting harder and harder to take.
01:26:41.540And people I'm not sure you can trust people, although they're not as wrong as everybody thinks they are.
01:26:47.280And I was fascinated with with DARPA's idea. Do you remember that when they came out right after 9-11?
01:26:53.580Yeah, they called it the TIA, the Total Information Awareness Program.
01:26:57.300And I agree with you. I think the idea was a good one, that if there's if there's disparate information out there spread across the world,
01:27:02.760if you can synthesize all that information together in a predictive market, you know, to get better or at least a different intelligence signal that, you know,
01:27:11.940hopefully you can make useful decisions based on their concerns.
01:27:16.380As you mentioned, some were about the optics of it. I think some were also based on, you know,
01:27:20.580there were at least rumors at the time about various Middle Eastern entities shorting airline stocks and things like that before they were the events took place.
01:27:29.100So I think there was some concern, too, that if there was a mechanism out there by which someone could directly speculate on and make money from terrorist attacks,
01:27:37.240that it might actually introduce an incentive to, you know, stake a position and then cause the event to happen.
01:27:43.620But you guys are not doing this. This is not this is not a gambling.
01:27:47.180So, I mean, even though it kind of is, I mean, you're putting your money down the table and you're playing the odds.
01:27:51.700But what is it you're trying to to do and to learn?
01:27:58.540You know, so we're trying to learn as much as possible, both about how how predictive markets function,
01:28:05.640what makes them liquid, what makes them correct, especially what what factors make such markets more correct than than the best signals that are currently out there,
01:28:15.000where the punditry, the statisticians or the polling.
01:28:17.580But we're also just trying to understand the the the market dynamics of how crowds aggregate and synthesize their collective wisdom into a single price signal.
01:28:30.220And to the extent that's that's actually useful and actionable by those who consume the data.
01:28:36.020So predicted has has research partnerships set up with dozens of universities that that actively comb through and try and analyze this data to see if they do yield yield better predictions.
01:28:47.580And if so, you know, if you can say anything interesting about which kinds of markets tend to do better than others that that kind of teasing out those hidden hidden insights that might be scattered in all these these disparate information sources.
01:29:01.320And it's because of that that motive. Right. That's why it's sort of legal. Right.
01:29:05.600Like I think it would people would think that this is some like offshore thing.
01:29:09.360It's not, though. You guys actually got approval from the government to do this. Right.
01:29:12.540That's correct. The CFTC that regulates, you know, these kind of markets generally issued no no action relief to predicted and the sponsoring university behind it to say,
01:29:24.780basically, if you if you do this with a predominant focus being on generating that kind of useful scientific and research data,
01:29:34.600and if you can find yourself to be within certain limitations to do with the maximum size of position you can have in a given market or the total number of participants in a given market that sort of keep it to be a predominantly academic exercise.
01:29:49.900Then they offer this relief to say, we're not going to treat you as though you're gambling or trading unregulated derivatives or or anything like that.
01:29:58.700So it's it's that approach that provides those those protections, both for the site and for the users and actually do keep it legal.
01:30:05.920Great. Flip, hang on. If you have a second, hang on, because I'd like to run through just some of the things that you have found in some of the different markets and some of the different candidates.
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01:34:07.180Yeah, we find that you do have to reach a certain kind of minimum liquidity for these markets to be drawing out the collective intelligence well enough.
01:34:16.760But for markets like this, you know, in focus, nationally relevant markets, we easily eclipse that threshold.
01:34:26.000So, for instance, in the tester market, we had, what, 44,000 shares trade yesterday.
01:34:39.020So, and some of the bigger ones are, you know, they'll be trading up in the hundreds of thousands easily and possibly into the millions as tonight wears on.
01:34:48.300So, let's hit three more before we go.
01:36:02.800Flip, I don't know if you've heard this.
01:36:04.100NBC News, literally, and Harvard just released a study that said that they believe that there's a possibility that an alien spacecraft, I'm not making this up, has just rounded the sun.
01:36:16.600I'd love to see the predictive markets on this once it becomes well-known.
01:36:21.960But thank you so much for talking to us.
01:36:50.120Scientists say mysterious object may be an alien spacecraft.
01:36:57.540Harvard researchers have raised the possibility that this is a probe sent by some alien race.
01:37:06.040Scientists have been puzzling over the Oumama or something ever since the mysterious space object was observed tumbling past the sun in late 2017.
01:37:30.860We've been talking about stupid tweets.
01:37:33.420Given its high speed and its unusual trajectory, the reddish, stadium-sized, whatever it is, had clearly come from outside our solar system.
01:37:42.740But its flattened, elongated shape and the way it accelerated on its way through the solar system set it apart from conventional asteroids and comets.
01:37:53.500It kind of looks, Stu thinks it looks like a stick.
01:37:56.820And it looks to me a little like the, you know, millennial, millennium Falcon.
01:38:02.040Now a pair of Harvard researchers are raising the possibility that it is an alien spacecraft.
01:38:08.100As they say in a paper to be published November 12th in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, the object, quote, may be fully operational as a probe sent intentionally to Earth's vicinity by an alien civilization.
01:38:21.260Researchers are not claiming outright that aliens sent this.
01:38:26.180But after careful mathematical analysis of the way the interstellar object sped up as it shot past the sun, they say it could be a spacecraft pushed through space by light falling on its surface or a light sail of artificial origin.
01:38:44.320They have no guess on who might have sent it to us.
01:46:43.240You know, the overall policy is is what we're talking about here.
01:46:47.660Obviously, people cross the border all the time.
01:46:50.120And that does not mean that the president is responsible for every single person.
01:46:54.020Well, it's also not accurate to say that the Democrats let him in because the Republicans have been on this bandwagon for a long time, not doing anything about the border.
01:47:03.440But I mean, again, is it a completely technical statement?
01:47:52.500I mean, I guess to see what to try to stretch to what they're saying as racist.
01:47:57.100They're seeing this one guy who is really saying these things really was a criminal, really was a cop killer.
01:48:03.760And then they're flashing that to scenes of the caravan, which I guess they're saying, what, all of these people are going to come kill cops?
01:48:13.860I mean, I think you could say, look, there's a large there's thousands of people coming in.
01:48:18.360You're probably going to get some criminals in there.
01:48:19.740In fact, we've seen and they interview people in the ad who say that one of them was an attempted murderer or he was he was convicted of attempted murder.
01:48:28.140So obviously, and we've seen other parts of the caravan also admit they had a lot of criminal elements and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
01:48:36.760I understand that you could say, like, if you're a Democrat, I can see you complaining and saying, well, that's not a fair way of stating this.
01:48:44.940Now, but that's not what they're saying.
01:51:54.540Maybe a tad different than we're going to get on MSNBC or CNN.
01:51:57.460Although watching Wolf Blitzer interact with 3D graphics is it's tempting.
01:52:03.160I got to say, it's always tempting to see that or their panels.
01:52:09.140I love their panels, too, where they have at CNN.
01:52:11.520They always have the panel of like 91 people and it's a really long table and all of them say like three words and then they have to move on to the other person.
01:52:20.280And there's usually one person in there who can even tolerate Trump.