The Glenn Beck Program - April 09, 2026


Best of the Program | 4⧸9⧸26


Episode Stats

Length

45 minutes

Words per Minute

159.09288

Word Count

7,317

Sentence Count

413

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

29


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.800 Today, we have some updates on around and how people have been hearing varying plans
00:00:05.560 for the ceasefire from different sources and how to make sense of what's really going on.
00:00:10.620 Also, we took some phone calls today from somebody who was 24 years old.
00:00:16.780 Can I even be a success in America today?
00:00:19.580 And so much more.
00:00:20.880 You don't want to miss a second on today's podcast.
00:00:22.860 Here it is.
00:00:30.000 you're listening to the best of the Glenn Beck program
00:00:37.120 so why does this feel so chaotic
00:00:43.320 why do we really not know what's going on
00:00:48.280 when you watch something and this is a normal human uh trait we we we have this innately so
00:00:58.420 we can survive. We are not meant to live in chaos, and we're not meant to live in a world that is so
00:01:06.940 unbelievably complex. So we're all looking for answers. We're all looking for meaning. We're
00:01:14.980 looking for straight lines that make sense to us. Draw a line and say, that's what's happening.
00:01:21.460 Unfortunately, in something like this, at this point, that instinct is going to hurt you.
00:01:26.120 because what we're looking at right now is not clean. It isn't one plan. It's not just one guy
00:01:36.860 or even two guys moving pieces across the board. It is competing interests stacked on top of each
00:01:43.120 other, sometimes working together, sometimes working at cross purposes, sometimes colliding
00:01:49.360 in ways nobody fully controls at all. So let me just take this apart. What are we looking at here?
00:01:55.580 We're looking at first Iran. From the outside, it's easy to say Iran. And it's one thing, one regime, one decision maker, one intention. But it's not. It's not. You have the people who some of them are for the old regime. I think the majority are against the old regime. But we haven't even seen anything from them. 0.53
00:02:17.560 then you have the politicians who sit across tables and speak the language of diplomacy and
00:02:23.200 understand sanctions and market pressures and what isolation is going to cost us and
00:02:27.800 all of that crap okay and those people are now the the pragmatists they're the ones going uh we
00:02:35.780 got to keep the country breathing where the economy is about to collapse i have a story
00:02:39.800 on this coming up in just a minute i can i can i can quote them word for word the economy is about
00:02:45.660 collapse. Then you have another group. You have the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. This is a
00:02:52.020 completely different animal entirely. They don't just fight the wars. They are the ones that run
00:02:59.680 industries. They control all of the ports. They move the money. They have built a banking and
00:03:06.140 ecosystem that feeds off of chaos and instability. The more tension in the system, the more relevant
00:03:13.040 they become, the more indispensable they become. And they're not dead yet. So when you see a
00:03:20.400 negotiation on one side and a missile on the other, the easy answer to say, they're out of
00:03:24.760 control. No, no, no. Sometimes they are. Sometimes they're not. Sometimes they're doing exactly what
00:03:32.440 they were built to do, apply pressure without triggering collapse. Now let's look at the
00:03:40.340 other players. Let's just look at China, because there was something going around yesterday going,
00:03:45.840 China, you know, Donald Trump is playing and going after China. And I think that's part of it.
00:03:50.600 But China's not in this for the ideology. Let's look at China here for a second.
00:03:54.980 They certainly don't care about, you know, revolution and theology. What they care about 0.97
00:04:00.660 is flow of oil, trade routes, stability where it matters, instability where it can be managed.
00:04:08.480 No one, well, except honestly the IRGC, nobody wants chaos because it doesn't benefit anybody
00:04:15.440 if you want to live in today's world, okay?
00:04:18.760 Iran is giving them away around all of the pressure to be able to keep them on their side. 0.68
00:04:25.200 That's discounted energy, okay?
00:04:27.580 But there's a limit to that because China doesn't want a fire it can't control.
00:04:32.000 It doesn't want a regional war that spikes global markets or forces choices.
00:04:36.440 that it doesn't want to make.
00:04:39.080 So the relationship with China is real,
00:04:41.640 but it's not blind loyalty.
00:04:43.340 It's transactional,
00:04:44.760 and it can tighten or loosen
00:04:46.280 depending on the temperature. 0.75
00:04:48.660 Then you have Israel. 0.99
00:04:50.560 Israel, they got us into this war. 0.99
00:04:54.000 Can we just look at Israel 0.98
00:04:55.580 for what it really is?
00:04:56.600 A separate state that thinks
00:04:58.740 that it is, right or wrong,
00:05:00.760 thinks that it is
00:05:02.480 in facing an existential danger, that these guys will wipe Israel off the face of the map.
00:05:12.340 It's a decision of not if, but when, which one's going to do it. And they're not waiting around 0.80
00:05:19.600 for anyone else to solve this. They have their own interests. You don't have to like them,
00:05:23.900 you don't have to agree with them, but they are a separate entity entirely. They act when they
00:05:29.760 believe they have to, and those actions also ripple outward whether anybody likes it or not.
00:05:35.800 Every strike, every response, everything feeds back into the system and changes the next move.
00:05:43.340 For instance, yesterday, ceasefire is over. I want to get into that here in a little while,
00:05:49.240 but let me just say, why? Why were they saying that? Because Israel was hitting Lebanon,
00:05:55.040 And there is a dispute. Was that part of the ceasefire or not? I'll get into this later.
00:06:01.580 But let me explain why they are going after Lebanon. They're not going after Lebanon or
00:06:11.060 the Lebanese people. They're going after Hezbollah. And I want to forget about the Middle East for a 0.99
00:06:15.360 second. Let me explain this as Mexico. Let's say right across the border, there was, and there's 0.92
00:06:21.440 not going to be a far stretch right across the border there was a a vile awful nasty drug cartel
00:06:29.580 just over the border in uh in mexico and we knew they were not they were doing more than just
00:06:37.460 pumping drugs into us we knew that they were planting bombs and killing our citizens on this 0.76
00:06:44.900 side of the border and we had had enough and we had said to mexico over and over again you got to 0.99
00:06:52.000 control this you got to get them out of there you got to get them out of there and they never did 0.73
00:06:55.680 and so then we said okay we'll do it and at some point mexico said we're with you on that you got
00:07:03.920 to get out this drug cartel you got to stop it you got to get out but they couldn't really mean
00:07:09.200 it they didn't have the teeth to do it they would they would they wanted that but they're not going
00:07:14.780 to be able to do it themselves. And so what would we do? We wouldn't care if Mexico was
00:07:23.500 with us or against us. We wouldn't care if there was a big global war that was happening someplace
00:07:29.540 else. If our people were being killed by this drug cartel terrorist group, we would bomb them.
00:07:37.680 That's what Israel is doing. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. I'm not saying you have to like
00:07:41.820 it i'm just telling you what it is that's why they were bombing because they have hezbollah 0.99
00:07:47.780 which by the way is a proxy of iran hezbollah right across their border and there they've made 0.69
00:07:56.680 it very clear we're not taking it anymore we are wiping all of this out okay and these groups like 0.80
00:08:03.740 hezbollah and everything else they're in this gray you know this gray zone they're actually
00:08:10.360 connected. They're an arm of the IRGC in Iran, but everybody wants to keep them in the gray zone, 0.83
00:08:15.840 but they're operating with the money and the consent of the IRGC. And they extend the 0.78
00:08:22.100 battlefield. They blur the responsibility. They make ceasefire a word that doesn't mean what
00:08:30.080 everybody thinks it means. So when something breaks, when missiles fly, when agreements look
00:08:35.000 like they're ignored, the temptation is to say, somebody violated something. Somebody broke the
00:08:41.700 deal. And it is weird to me, as I told you just a minute ago, how many bombs and missiles and drones
00:08:48.720 the IRGC sent over the border of other countries yesterday, and the same time that Israel was
00:08:57.980 bombing Lebanon, and that's a clear violation. What Iran did is not in dispute. That's a clear
00:09:05.960 violation, but no one reported on it, which then goes to why. What was the motivation of almost
00:09:16.900 everyone in our press yesterday? What was the motivation of those who are podcasters and
00:09:23.820 influencers to not mention that i'll tell you what israel is doing and i'll tell you you don't
00:09:29.580 have to like it but that's what they're doing but i'll also tell you this is what iran was doing
00:09:35.440 and i'm not saying one is better than the other or one causes the other one i'm just telling you
00:09:40.300 the facts why would no one do this this is where the you know hot take influencers and podcasters
00:09:48.320 are coming in because they'll all say there's a master plan and it ranges from Donald Trump has
00:09:54.800 sold us out or Iran or I mean Israel is selling us out or whatever whatever okay and they'll make
00:10:02.800 it look like everything is being controlled and you know one person is pulling all the strings
00:10:08.660 it's satisfying it it honestly it helps you uh reduce the chaos in your own mind and it it
00:10:17.540 It helps you feel perhaps more secure because we need that reduction in chaos.
00:10:23.620 But most of the time, it's not right.
00:10:26.600 It's not right.
00:10:27.540 And it's not right because we don't have all of the facts yet.
00:10:34.300 And also, power at this level, when it is this complex, is not a single mind playing perfect chess.
00:10:41.400 It is moving through advisors and priorities and different countries and public pressure and limited information.
00:10:49.160 There are strategies, there are patterns, but there's also just reaction.
00:10:56.100 There are moments when decisions are made with incomplete picture.
00:11:00.140 And that's happening right now in real time in all of our information systems.
00:11:05.660 so let me go through this because there are constraints here in america and there are
00:11:14.520 things you need to understand and then i want to go through some of the things that people were
00:11:18.560 saying and i want to explain them to you not justify anything just explain them to you so you
00:11:24.160 you maybe can reduce the chaos in your day and understand this a little bit better
00:11:28.780 Okay, so we have things that are really constraining us. Here in America, we're constrained by our war fatigue and our economic risk. Alliances that we have that have to be managed, not commanded. And everything we do carries weight beyond the immediate target.
00:11:53.560 So when you're looking at the news of the day, especially when it comes to the war, you have to understand you're not watching one or two entities.
00:12:02.240 You're watching a very crowded room, different players, different goals, overlapping strategies, some of them pushing towards stability, others benefiting from tension, few trying to shape outcomes that nobody fully controls.
00:12:16.460 Iran's not a voice China isn't a puppet master the United States isn't operating without limits
00:12:23.180 Israel isn't sitting still or controlling all of it the proxies are not background noise all of it
00:12:29.660 is one giant stew and if you try to reduce this as people have been trying to do one villain one 0.85
00:12:37.200 genius one plan you're going to miss the signals that actually matter and I did my homework on
00:12:43.620 this yesterday because I thought of something that really kind of scared me. Uh, and I thought,
00:12:47.980 Oh, I haven't even thought of this. And I started doing my homework on it and I think we're okay.
00:12:54.620 But with that one understanding, it gave me a completely different view of even this 10 point
00:13:01.880 plan, which we don't even know what the 10 points are. Okay. We don't even know,
00:13:06.380 but you got to look for the small shifts and the pressure points and the moments where things can
00:13:11.340 tip not necessarily because somebody intended it but because the moving parts lined up in the wrong
00:13:17.880 way or the wrong time or worse yet i've been telling you this for a while world wars are not
00:13:22.480 started by one party um you know just being crazy it's usually started by one party just making a
00:13:30.000 bad miscalculation that's how situations like this get away from people and that's why i urge
00:13:37.000 podcasters and everybody else. Slow down. Slow down. You don't have to be right today. You don't.
00:13:43.540 Just try to make sense. Try to help people understand what is happening right now.
00:13:51.180 Because if we don't, if things like this get misunderstood, the next move is usually made
00:13:58.000 with far too much confidence. We have to understand it first. And we have to understand
00:14:04.180 first, that we don't understand it. That's why I think we need to slow down. That's what I think
00:14:10.920 the media, new and old, is missing. So let me get to the problem that hit me yesterday. And I think
00:14:17.180 I have a happy answer after doing some homework. But our side is being run by the world's best
00:14:22.600 dealmaker, right? I trust that guy to sit down at the table against anybody and make a deal and
00:14:29.740 think that deal is going to be in our best interest and we're going to get the best deal
00:14:33.220 we could possibly get with whomever he's sitting across the table, okay?
00:14:37.760 But he's used to sitting down with people who are buying buildings
00:14:41.000 or even nations, that nations want to survive.
00:14:47.760 There is a group of people in the IRGC that they think their win is death and chaos.
00:14:56.780 We're judging all these non-existent 10-point deals and talking about dealmaking,
00:15:01.000 But what if the people that actually have control don't want a deal? 0.79
00:15:06.420 They want the return of the Mahadi.
00:15:10.300 How should we be negotiating if we knew we were playing against those kind of players?
00:15:20.900 You're listening to the best of the Glenn Beck Program.
00:15:23.580 i'm really bummed that we um i didn't have more time to talk to nick uh on the phone who asked
00:15:35.400 question you know i'm 24 years old i would nick call me tomorrow i'd like to talk to you some
00:15:39.960 more 24 years old can i still be successful in america uh and my answer is yeah you absolutely
00:15:46.780 can but it requires a different mindset entirely especially with ai coming it's going to be it's
00:15:52.800 going to be difficult challenging but everything has been everything my whole life has been
00:15:58.000 challenging you know think you think about the people who were were uh farmers that you know
00:16:03.480 uh there was no electricity there was you know and then all of a sudden everybody moves into the
00:16:07.800 cities and there's refrigeration and everything think about think about how they're just their
00:16:11.440 whole life their whole cities collapsed they had to adjust and they did and that's my dad used to
00:16:18.120 say, life is nothing but a series of adjustments. You either adjust or you go nuts. Uh, he went
00:16:25.520 nuts in the end. No, I'm kidding. Um, but, uh, it's true. And I'm listening to Jason talking to
00:16:31.040 the insiders right after the, you know, we went into the break and, uh, and Jason does a, a show
00:16:37.660 within the show. When I go into commercials, he's usually talking about other things and getting to
00:16:42.380 facts and details that I just didn't get a chance to get to. Um, and he started talking about,
00:16:47.380 you know how he's the american success story and i was listening to you jason i'm like you know i
00:16:53.440 think you're right i think you i mean you are another great example of you don't have a reason
00:16:59.180 to be you know you didn't you didn't set out to do something like this and all of us you know and
00:17:05.180 and you like but you didn't even see your success come i did but you didn't even see your success
00:17:10.860 coming did you no and i i didn't describe it as me being the actual you know success story but i
00:17:17.000 guess you could look at it that way i i feel like everything that i've my life and my mom as she's
00:17:22.640 listening to this is going to be cracking up because everything in my life has been one crazy
00:17:27.560 impulsive mistake after the next massive risk learning the hard way but i never would have
00:17:33.980 anywhere wait wait can i wait wait wait can i can i tell you something i think that's what
00:17:38.580 is the difference between people who have big success and no success or a little success
00:17:44.420 your tolerance for risk.
00:17:46.900 I am somebody, I'll put every chip on the table.
00:17:49.080 If I believe something's right and I pray about it
00:17:51.100 and I feel it, I'll put every chip on the table.
00:17:53.940 And that's risk big, win big.
00:17:55.960 Risk big, lose big.
00:17:57.840 Know the odds before you put your chips down on the table.
00:18:01.040 But if you want to win big, you've got to risk big.
00:18:03.360 Anyway, go ahead.
00:18:04.360 It's very true.
00:18:05.380 And when I was discussing what Nick,
00:18:07.600 what I would say to Nick is what I would have said
00:18:09.180 to my children is you have to start very, very early.
00:18:11.500 A lot earlier than I did
00:18:13.140 when you're looking at what you want to do in your life.
00:18:15.820 But even through that, through working, working very hard,
00:18:20.240 even at a young age, younger than I had to,
00:18:22.940 constantly making mistakes, constantly falling,
00:18:25.820 constantly picking yourself back up,
00:18:27.660 but beyond everything else, constant prayer to God
00:18:32.080 and telling him, just put me in that place
00:18:35.500 where I can best serve you.
00:18:37.540 I'm going to do what I can, but I'm not asking for wealth.
00:18:40.540 I'm not asking for success.
00:18:41.820 just put me with the people in the location to where I can best serve you. Glenn, I will testify
00:18:48.680 to you right now. I would not be here today on your team. I would not have found my way to you.
00:18:54.360 I know in my heart and soul, if I would not have had that prayer twice a day, every single day,
00:19:00.020 and it does open up doors to you that you never would have thought would have happened,
00:19:04.280 that's got to be part of your path through life. When you're looking at success, when you're
00:19:08.700 looking at the American dream, that's the pathway to the American dream.
00:19:12.740 But I will tell you this, Jason, let me use you as an example.
00:19:16.780 You know, you just said you got to start really early.
00:19:21.180 My children don't know exactly what they want to do.
00:19:23.940 You know, you're in high school, you're in college, even you may not know what you want
00:19:28.240 to do.
00:19:28.740 That's all right.
00:19:29.660 But whatever you're doing, do it the best you possibly can and learn it.
00:19:35.400 But don't take anything as, I remember the, the, the time my life really changed. I was an
00:19:42.760 alcoholic. I was an egomaniac. I had been running all of these stations and I find myself, you know,
00:19:48.700 on the outs and I'm now at the station and I have to answer to everybody. And, uh, this guy knows
00:19:55.020 I'm an egomaniac and I had been praying for humility. Lord, give me humility. Give me humility.
00:20:00.340 Well, Lord will answer that one like with rockets. And so I'm, this new guy comes in and he is now
00:20:08.360 the boss of me. And he's like, I want you to do what they're called dubs, the lowest rung of the
00:20:13.820 ladder of radio. And I'm, I'm 35 and I'm like, what? And I left so angry. And then it dawned on
00:20:24.220 me. Oh my gosh, this is what I've been praying for. And I went in the next day, drove him out
00:20:29.260 of his mind because he thought I wasn't being serious, but I was. I said, thank you. I am going
00:20:34.080 to be the best dubber anyone's ever had. Okay. And I really took it seriously. And I, and that was
00:20:42.120 the day my life changed. My career changed is, and if you do this, what, with whatever, you will not
00:20:49.480 believe how many doors will open you. If you are always focused on whatever it is you're doing,
00:20:57.700 even if you despise it, you will open so many doors and then you may not walk through that door.
00:21:05.440 But because that door is open, that may be something that leads you someplace else.
00:21:11.520 And you never know it. You never noticed.
00:21:14.440 Mike Rowe, who I love and you know, I love him, too.
00:21:17.740 He said he's famous for giving this career advice to follow opportunity, not your passion.
00:21:23.660 yes and but be passionate about the opportunity you're given and more doors will open I've seen
00:21:30.680 that to be true since I was 20 years old you don't realize that everybody's looking for a
00:21:36.700 specific door to open but I have to tell you I wanted to be successful in radio and I knew
00:21:44.400 exactly how I was going to get there and that led me nowhere okay led me to mid success and then
00:21:51.280 eventually alcoholism and everything else. Um, when I let go and I'm like, I don't care. I'll
00:21:58.000 just go through the door that you want me to go through. Success came so rapidly because I'm no
00:22:06.040 longer in control of it. I'm just doing what I'm supposed to do at this time. And I'm doing it
00:22:12.380 really well. And I'll tell you, Jason, you know, this you've been with me and how many conversations
00:22:19.780 because you worked with me on security for a while you were my my body man um and that's how
00:22:25.700 we really got to know each other um and how many conversations did you hear me have with people and
00:22:31.640 we would walk away and i'd go well there's a millionaire that's never going to make a dime
00:22:35.060 yeah you remember that yeah i would meet so many people that would would be so stuck on
00:22:43.440 on i'm doing it i'm doing it my way and it's going to happen this way but i'm i've got my
00:22:49.460 I'm not going to do this and this and this the minute you start putting limits on the universe
00:22:53.900 you're not good it's not going to happen it's not going to happen once once you say it's my way
00:22:58.840 not going to happen you have to be so open and so willing to do whatever it takes I mean in an
00:23:06.800 ethical way do whatever it takes um if that's what you want if that's what you want I mean I
00:23:13.780 can testify Glenn Beck wasn't my passion but he gave me the opportunity and now he's my passion
00:23:18.980 way wow isn't that sweet isn't that sweet uh remind me hr tomorrow remind me about that way
00:23:26.600 uh let me go to vanessa in tennessee because she says her kid goes to overton high school we were
00:23:32.100 just talking about this uh high school in tennessee just about an hour ago um and she has
00:23:37.500 some insight obviously about overton high school hi vanessa how are you hi good thanks for taking
00:23:44.140 my call so did the story we tell did the story we tell did we get it right is is the story right
00:23:51.460 that we read um yeah i think so i think that uh i definitely know that overton has done all those
00:23:59.920 accommodations for um for for uh the muslim students and for uh ramadan um now do they do
00:24:10.600 that for other faiths? Yes, I would say that I think they do. I don't think, I wouldn't say that
00:24:19.980 I know what a Christian practice would be that would quite be the equivalent, but... Do they
00:24:30.160 have a Christmas concert, or is it a winter concert? We do have, we do, well, our winter
00:24:38.960 concert is often in January, but they do do, um, they do, uh, a holiday concert where they'll do
00:24:48.940 Christmas songs. They also have done, um, hymns during the spring concert played like not Christian
00:24:58.700 Christmas songs, but straight hymns. Um, we partner with a lot of churches that come in
00:25:05.520 and do stuff they also have a lot of um like uh christian athletes associate association and
00:25:15.180 young life and and groups like that on campus good um they i would say they also do um
00:25:22.900 like group prayer uh christian prayer um we just had a student tragically lose his life um and
00:25:32.600 they've had lots of space for kids to, um, meet and pray and, and have Christian counselors come
00:25:40.320 in and other counselors, I'm sure. Um, but I mean, there are certainly lots of, that's right.
00:25:47.600 It to me sounds like Overton high school is at least trying to do it right.
00:25:53.160 And that's fantastic to hear. Fantastic to hear. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's definitely
00:25:59.080 many problems at the school. But in that regard, I think they are pretty open to trying to
00:26:08.820 accommodate other things. Like I said, I don't know. There were a lot of kids who fasted for
00:26:14.700 Lent. We have a large Hispanic population with lots of Catholic people and other Christians who
00:26:20.160 do lent so um but most of those kids you don't it's not a timed fast it's a you know restrictive
00:26:29.140 what foods you restrict so right um well good uh ricky is looking at me hang on just a second
00:26:36.740 because i i didn't hear about that in the newspaper i didn't hear about that either right like they
00:26:42.280 were bragging about all of the accommodations were made that were made for muslim students
00:26:47.280 including you know changing the bell schedule i just don't really remember reading about that
00:26:52.740 for the jews or the christians and the nashville newspaper that's all why do you suppose that is
00:26:58.200 vanessa um what newspaper was it out of uh look it up ricky we'll look it up here real quick
00:27:06.560 yeah she'll look it up real quick nashville banner yeah that's a pretty i think that's a
00:27:12.880 pretty liberal newspaper so it doesn't surprise me that they would put out an article like that um
00:27:21.180 but uh be interesting to see anybody who is not a a left-winging you know kind of to do a balance
00:27:31.220 story on overton i'd love to see somebody in nashville look at all of it and say no no this
00:27:37.400 the way it is. I don't know what news source in Nashville is not liberal. They're all very
00:27:44.560 liberal, which is unfortunate. Yeah, yeah, I know. Vanessa, thank you very much. I appreciate it.
00:27:50.580 Just watch yourself. There is a, you know, I don't know if you've seen the special yet on
00:27:57.420 the blueprint of our own demise here that's coming from the Islamist movement. But, you know, 1.00
00:28:04.020 people who are Muslim, fine. People who are Islamists, political Islam that believe in
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00:30:21.800 So yesterday on the tarmac in Hungary,
00:30:25.220 the vice president was speaking to reporters,
00:30:27.760 and he was just asking you know could we get some honesty from the press and he was talking
00:30:34.360 specifically about the multiple versions of the 10-point plan because somebody had asked him about
00:30:40.180 the 10-point plan are we willing to accept this listen to what he said about iran sir so so let
00:30:46.300 me let me just say given you guys you're gonna ask about iran um let me just say a few things
00:30:49.980 actually so number one i think it's very important for the american media to be honest with the
00:30:55.640 American people on this particular issue because it affects not just, you know, the normal issues
00:31:03.040 of public policy. It actually affects peace and war. And here's what I mean. So in the past couple
00:31:07.920 of days, I've seen a lot of reporting from the American media about the 10-point proposal that
00:31:14.400 the Iranians have made. Now, as I know, because I've been involved in this, there are three
00:31:18.800 different 10-point proposals at least that I've seen floating around. The first 10-point proposal
00:31:23.560 was something that was submitted. And we think, frankly, it was probably written by ChatGPT that
00:31:27.740 was submitted to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. That immediately went in the garbage and was
00:31:32.660 rejected. There was a second 10-point proposal that was much more reasonable, that was based
00:31:37.300 on some back and forth between us, between the Pakistanis and Palestinians. That is the 10-point
00:31:42.680 proposal that the president was referencing in his truth yesterday. And then, frankly,
00:31:46.780 I've seen a third 10-point proposal that's even more maximalist than the first 10-point proposal
00:31:51.720 that's been floating around various social media channels.
00:31:54.280 Now, here's what's interesting about all this,
00:31:57.120 is that I've seen various organs,
00:31:59.200 the New York Times, CNN, others,
00:32:01.540 pick up and run the original 10-point proposal
00:32:04.900 based on little more than a random Yahoo in Iran
00:32:08.420 submitting it to public access television
00:32:11.300 in the country of Iran,
00:32:12.740 and then them saying that somehow represents
00:32:15.380 the negotiating position of the government.
00:32:19.380 Okay.
00:32:21.720 See what he's saying here? And my job is to help you try to make sense of the world. And nothing in the world makes sense. And especially in war. And war with this kind of media. And war with this kind of access to the internet. And everybody has an opinion. And then you add on top of it, AI.
00:32:46.800 i mean it's going to get more and more confusing every day so i'm trying to um not tell you what's
00:32:55.060 right or what's wrong i'm telling you right now slow down slow down he's talking about the 10
00:33:01.140 point plan and yesterday we were arguing i wasn't but many people were arguing the president is
00:33:07.520 gonna he's just gonna let them charge for oil and he's gonna let them have the nukes well that would
00:33:13.460 Okay. You don't even know which 10-point plan is real. Now, yesterday, you might have thought
00:33:20.780 that you knew which one was real. But you know today, you don't. We have no idea which one is
00:33:29.420 real. There are multiple versions of this. And so all of that energy was wasted yesterday.
00:33:35.240 But let's just say that we did know that there was only one version of the 10-point plan.
00:33:43.460 Should we argue about it and dig our heels in it right now if we knew there was one?
00:33:52.560 My answer would be no, because we're missing one critical piece of information.
00:34:01.820 Who are we dealing with on the other side?
00:34:06.860 Hear me out on this.
00:34:08.240 You have to reset your instincts entirely before you even start this conversation, because most of us in America, we think negotiation is about finding the overlap, you know, finding the places of commonality.
00:34:24.820 You figure out what the other guy wants. You give a little, they you take a little, they walk away with something. And it's good for both. I mean, if it's a good deal, it's good for both parties. Right.
00:34:34.200 But that game only works if you're all playing that game.
00:34:41.180 But look at what we're dealing with right now.
00:34:45.120 Donald Trump has just announced a two-week pause, ceasefire, bombing stops, window opens.
00:34:51.260 By the way, the ceasefire held yesterday.
00:34:54.880 And everybody was upset.
00:34:56.460 He's going to stop.
00:34:57.320 He's going to stop.
00:34:58.100 He's negotiating.
00:34:59.260 Hear me out on this.
00:35:01.180 This is a negotiator's move.
00:35:02.980 you create space all right you lower the temperature you heat it up heat it up heat it
00:35:09.000 up and then you lower the temperature so either side can step back without losing face you can
00:35:16.180 give everybody an exit ramp okay and in business this works all the time all the time because you
00:35:24.760 know the guy on the other end of the table wants to make a deal but what if the guy across the table
00:35:32.560 isn't just a guy. What if it's a system that doesn't want any deal? Even worse than that.
00:35:41.440 This is what you're seeing this week. And this is so critical. The politicians in Tehran are
00:35:49.300 signaling restraint. Elements tied to the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they're not.
00:36:02.560 It was the Guard Corps, the IRGC, that were lobbing missiles over to the Gulf nations yesterday that nobody reported on. 0.72
00:36:11.240 That was the IRGC.
00:36:13.540 Looks like a violation.
00:36:16.100 But I actually think it's something more dangerous than a violation.
00:36:19.840 This is the system arguing with itself in real time with weapons.
00:36:26.680 And if you don't understand that, you misread everything.
00:36:31.140 you know trump whether you like him or not has spent a lifetime dealing with people who
00:36:36.460 you know want something that you can measure you know maybe it's building its real estate
00:36:41.380 whatever a golf course in scotland but he's never been in scotland negotiating on a golf course and
00:36:47.180 had somebody there that's like oh i'm gonna vaporize scotland and you okay that's i mean
00:36:53.280 how do you how do you deal with that person you don't have any common ground iran is not one
00:36:59.060 system. It's at least two. And there appears to be part of it that wants to survive. Discounting
00:37:06.700 the people, just the regime itself. Part of it wants to survive. That is the part that Trump
00:37:12.860 is negotiating with, okay? And they want to keep the lights on. They want to maintain control.
00:37:17.980 They want to live. And then there's the part that sees chaos as the answer, okay? The IRGC.
00:37:25.940 Those are the Twelvers. That's the Shia sect that wants to hasten the return of the Mahadi, the promised one. 1.00
00:37:34.160 That worldview is not about, you know, keeping the power on and quarterly results. 0.98
00:37:40.640 That is washing the world with blood. You don't close a deal with that at all.
00:37:48.180 That side, you have to kill or defang and cage it. Those are your only options.
00:37:55.940 So what does somebody in Donald Trump's position do when the other side is split between those?
00:38:06.440 One, you don't negotiate with the country.
00:38:09.640 You start negotiating with the fracture.
00:38:12.900 You give the survival-minded faction enough fear and then enough hope to hold on to.
00:38:21.720 Just enough incentive to keep them engaged.
00:38:25.940 At the same time, you make escalation for the IRGC not painful, absolutely catastrophic.
00:38:34.960 If you hit it, you hit it hard.
00:38:37.720 Be careful.
00:38:38.600 You hit it too hard, too fast, you could actually unify the system against you.
00:38:44.240 Notice that's what everybody was saying.
00:38:45.760 He's going to wipe out all of the Iranians and turn them all against us.
00:38:50.760 Yeah, he could have if that's what he was going to do, but that's not what he was doing. 0.64
00:38:53.800 He was negotiating.
00:38:55.620 That's not what he was doing.
00:38:57.920 That's why he backed up, stopped, stopped before he did that, because you can't unify the system.
00:39:06.140 If you do that, the ones who are the strong ones, the ones who just want to destroy everything, they become in charge.
00:39:14.720 This is one reason why the pause came.
00:39:17.640 so what do you do with a two-week pause well you do a couple of things and everybody in the last
00:39:24.040 couple of days has been saying two-week pause that's going to get them time to regroup yes
00:39:29.680 good our side just kept saying taco trump chickened out he's a he's a war criminal that
00:39:38.780 chickened out but if you if you understand this isn't a normal negotiation you realize this isn't
00:39:46.900 weakness and it's not surrender. This is somebody trying to test which part of Iran is actually in
00:39:53.540 control. If you're dealing with a fractured negotiation partner, you need to figure out
00:39:59.360 which one is stronger than the other. You need to figure out which one is actually in charge.
00:40:04.460 So you push it to the limit, you create a window, and then you watch what fills it.
00:40:10.500 If restraint fills it, do you notice this has held?
00:40:15.400 Last night, nobody broke the ceasefire.
00:40:19.060 If that fills this space, then you have somebody to talk to.
00:40:22.880 If missiles fill it, then you've learned something else entirely.
00:40:27.940 You've got to go back to work.
00:40:30.480 So here's the problem with this.
00:40:32.240 The news this week shows both possibilities at the same time. 0.70
00:40:37.220 You've got signals suggesting that parts of the Iranian leadership want a way out.
00:40:42.040 At the same time, you've got rockets and proxies and noise. 0.97
00:40:45.460 Two realities, same country.
00:40:47.480 So the question becomes, Donald Trump is the best negotiator in the world.
00:40:55.780 i think he does but does he understand that he's got doomsday people on the other side
00:41:07.780 i think he does he's not trying to make a deal with something
00:41:12.960 uh as a whole you know when when neville chamberlain sat down with uh adolf hitler and you
00:41:20.280 know made the munich agreement he thought he was dealing with a man who wanted you know some
00:41:25.260 to find gains. He wasn't. He wasn't. He was dealing with a movement that fed on expansion,
00:41:30.480 on craziness. That agreement didn't solve anything. It just bought time for Germany
00:41:36.160 and not for the people who thought they were buying it. Now, fast forward, Cold War, American
00:41:42.240 presidents negotiated with the Soviet Union. That system had ideology too. It talked about
00:41:47.580 global revolution, but it also wanted to survive. And that's why the deals held, because we had
00:41:54.780 MAD, mutually assured destruction. Because underneath everything that the Soviet Union 0.97
00:41:59.360 was said, they still feared, just like we did, the fear of annihilation, nuclear war. That's a line
00:42:03.960 you're not going to cross. The real question is, who is controlling Iran today? And which side of
00:42:15.720 the line does the power fall on? The one that understands MAD or the other side that may
00:42:22.180 actually welcome nuclear destruction. That's the whole game. That's the fundamental question we're
00:42:27.620 missing. Because if enough of that system wants to survive, then what Trump is doing, pressure
00:42:34.520 mixed with pauses, will work. If the balance is tipping the other way, then that faction that
00:42:41.200 welcomes chaos gains control, then every pause becomes an opportunity for them, and we have to
00:42:47.780 go back in and keep hitting them hard. Every opening becomes cover. Every negotiation is
00:42:54.000 just a delay tactic. We've seen that happen before. He's not dumb enough to fall for that again.
00:42:58.980 So what you're seeing now feels really, really messy because it is. It's why today I'm telling
00:43:05.540 you, and I try to tell you this every day, and at least during the war here, is we don't know
00:43:10.140 what we're dealing with. We don't know who we're even dealing with. And in this particular scenario,
00:43:16.080 Both outcomes are logical and reasonable as endpoints, and they have extraordinarily different endings.
00:43:26.100 This is not a clean negotiation.
00:43:30.040 You know, this is Donald Trump.
00:43:31.260 If he would have gone in and tried to negotiate for some company, you know, he's going to buy some company,
00:43:35.780 and half the board wants to restructure and wants to sell to him,
00:43:39.240 and the other half is literally setting the building on fire while the meeting is happening,
00:43:43.360 you could talk all you want.
00:43:45.100 You can still make your moves, but you better understand which side is actually holding the matches and which one has control of the doors.
00:43:53.500 And I think watching this week, Trump understands exactly what he's dealing with.
00:44:00.040 He didn't go all the way in.
00:44:02.500 He didn't try to end it in one dramatic move.
00:44:05.520 He pushed it to the limit and then created space, and now he's watching.
00:44:11.460 That's not how you close a real estate deal.
00:44:13.420 But that is the way you would probe a system to find out who's in charge, who can I trust.
00:44:21.040 And quite honestly, and then you can also know the names of the people you need to target.
00:44:28.700 Understanding this is not the same as mastering it, because this kind of negotiation has a really hard truth built into it.
00:44:35.380 You don't get a clean win.
00:44:36.420 You don't get a document that signs away or gives you everything that you want.
00:44:44.320 What you get, if you do it right, is time.
00:44:47.280 Time for the pressure to work, time for internal fractures to widen, time for people to get stronger on the streets,
00:44:54.240 time for the side that wants to survive to outweigh the side that doesn't care if everything burns.
00:45:01.360 But if you get it wrong, you don't just lose a deal.
00:45:03.620 You strengthen the part of the system that was never interested in survival in the first place.
00:45:08.140 So when you watch the headlines this week, pause.
00:45:11.260 Missiles, mixed signals, it's not confusion.
00:45:14.120 That's the reality of what happens when a negotiator, used to dealing with self-interest,
00:45:19.580 as every negotiator in the West is, sits across from a system where not everybody's values of survival are the same.
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