On this episode of the Glenn Beck Show, Glenn talks about how America is really split in two cities, and then everywhere else, and how we don't understand in the land of everywhere else and even things like avocado toast, we kind of boil it down to what we need to choose. It is, as Reagan said in 1964, a time of choosing. But what is that choice now? Also, we look at Stu's numbers, which are quite different in some ways than just the poll numbers, and who the candidate is of significance that will be the first to drop out.
00:00:00.000Hey, welcome to the Wednesday podcast. We've got a great one for you. We have a we have a we start the podcast with how America is really split in two cities and and then everywhere else and how we don't understand in the land of everywhere else.
00:00:16.920And even things like avocado toast, we kind of boil it down to what we need to choose. It is, as Reagan said in 1964, a time of choosing. But what is that choice now? Also, we look at Stu's numbers, his power rankings, which are quite different in some ways than just the poll numbers.
00:00:40.560Stu. Yeah, I mean, we try to look at more factors than just polls. Polls are a part of the package for sure. But, you know, the earlier you are in a in an election season, the less they actually matter. It's about bigger things, you know, campaign infrastructure and all this other stuff that we look at and come up with final rankings.
00:00:59.100And I will tell you that his rankings are different than the poll numbers. And I think he's right on it. And he also will predict on today's podcast who the candidate is of significance that will be the first to drop out. And I think he's right on that. You don't want to miss it. Today's podcast.
00:01:21.340You're listening to the best of the Glenn Beck program.
00:01:29.100243 years, you know, in 2026, we're going to have our 250th birthday. I remember what it was like in 1976.
00:01:44.920Now it's our 250th birthday. And for 243 years, we have been the hope for freedom.
00:01:54.440We have been the place that people who feel oppressed have come and we have welcomed them.
00:02:04.620They they've come here because they know their system doesn't work.
00:02:09.400They know the system that they've been living under has oppressed them, has has stopped them from pursuing their own happiness.
00:02:41.540We don't talk about that anymore, that all these people have come together from different places with different backgrounds and different languages and cultures and and and traditions.
00:02:54.480And they come here because they want to be a part of it, not the place.
00:13:06.440But we can't talk about it because they don't understand it.
00:13:09.680They don't have any interest in understanding it.
00:13:12.720Right now, the media will not even admit that there's a problem on our border that doesn't start with Donald and end with Trump.
00:13:35.020They won't talk about any of it, let alone the radicals and the communists who are now masquerading as democratic socialists, as if that's any better.
00:13:46.120Who are actually planning, facilitating, and funding groups from all over the world to storm our border.
00:13:53.900Did you know that just a few weeks ago, a large group of men from the Congo spoke neither English nor Spanish, suddenly got over here from the Congo, went to Mexico, and somehow or another were smuggled into our country, and now are living on the streets in San Antonio.
00:14:50.980Now, God forbid a truly sinister group like ISIS decided to weaponize people and Ebola while we sit here and still fail to recognize that there's even a problem on the border.
00:26:15.980I mean, Biden has always done this quiet voice thing, no matter how much energy he's had.
00:26:20.620It's always been like one of his schticks where he'll just get really quiet as if he's saying something really profound when it's really not much of anything.
00:26:48.180He, he's middle class, like if he just stepped out of the Scooby-Doo mystery van, I mean, he's like 1972 middle class, man.
00:26:58.320But it's a, he's doing it more, I think, because he, he wants to contrast himself.
00:27:02.580He wants to see everybody in that race is trying to show themselves as this, with the exception of maybe Sanders, is trying to show themselves as this super balanced, calm, intellectual, because they think it, you know, it just is a good contrast with Trump.
00:27:15.240And where Biden, I think probably his strength is to be more like Trump, right?
00:27:20.560Like he's the type of person that will come out and he can maybe throw some insults at you.
00:30:40.780So the one thing I really like about Stu, and there is only one, is that he's a stat geek.
00:30:47.280He is a guy who is really numbers minded and can always tell you everything about every poll and which polls to dismiss and which ones not to dismiss.
00:30:59.500He was pretty close on the election last time, if I'm not mistaken, and this time he has really put about a year's worth of work into developing a system that takes into consideration 30 different metrics.
00:31:14.100Can you go through any of those, Stu, so we understand?
00:31:17.660Like, I mean, you think everything from polling, we use even some prediction market stuff.
00:31:22.580We go through endorsements and the organization the campaigns are building, you know, the debates, the media coverage, you know, fundraising.
00:31:34.640I mean, really, you know, it's a couple, it's a few dozen, and they actually grow.
00:31:40.700So, for example, now polling is going to be less important than something, than, you know, a lot of these that indicate potential, right?
00:31:48.460Like, potential is going to be more important now than a week before an election when, you know, the polling is going to take into account all of those things.
00:31:56.060There's a lot of these candidates that people don't even know, so you have to, there's a little bit of art inside of there.
00:32:00.860But overall, it's a good way of, like, looking at the entire field and seeing who's going up, who's going down, who, you know, over a long period of time, you can kind of follow the race and make sense out of it because it's freaking chaotic.
00:32:11.940I mean, there's 24 people in here, and how do you even understand the entire field?
00:32:16.760So, I'm not really interested in the 24 people.
00:32:20.120I'm interested in the ones that actually have a chance.
00:32:22.860So, can you tell me, you know, give me the ones that are really the movers and shakers?
00:32:28.440Okay, a few things from this one, which I thought were pretty interesting.
00:32:31.860One was the biggest drop of any candidate since we started doing this.
00:32:36.180And you may instinctively know that was Beto O'Rourke, who fell 7.4 points.
00:32:43.720The way we do this is this giant formula basically spits out a number 0 to 100.
00:32:47.660So, 100 would be, in theory, the perfect candidate that couldn't lose.
00:44:00.880But you look at certain candidates on here and a couple that I would highlight would be Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg, who have still massive gaps in their familiarity.
00:44:11.480I mean, like about a third of Democrats have never heard the name Pete Buttigieg before.
00:44:17.660I mean, that is like we you know, we talk about this stuff every day.
00:44:20.100So to to us, this guy's been, you know, invading our lives for several months.
00:44:25.180But I mean, he is basically, as far as candidates go, pretty unknown.
00:44:30.000I mean, he's in the area of, you know, Julian Castro, as far as name recognition.
00:44:34.620And he performs much better than Castro does, as far as favorability.
00:44:38.300When I was in music radio, I used to pick the music for radio.
00:44:45.040And I remember I'd look at research and you would look at the familiarity and there was a tipping point.
00:44:52.420But if you had a song that was very, very popular and people loved it, but it it was unknown to the mass, you had a pretty good shot that once it was exposed, it was going to it would take off.
00:45:23.720You know, he's at forty to eleven right now.
00:45:26.900One important thing to understand, though, is basically every candidate in this race has about 10 percent of people who will say they don't like them.
00:45:33.800And it goes up from there, like, you know, Bernie Sanders is almost 20.
00:45:37.380But, you know, Buttigieg is at that floor.
00:45:39.440Basically, it's 11 percent and he has 42 percent, so a four to one ratio.
00:45:44.580Plus, he has a third of the audience that has not even heard of him yet.
00:45:47.960So if he can continue those sorts of ratios, he's in a really nice position.
00:45:52.360And that's the thing about Buttigieg and why he performs so well on the power rankings is because he's got tons of room to grow.
00:45:58.480Right. And if he has deep passion, not people who are like, I like that Pete guy, but deep passion and that much room to grow.