Glenn Beck and Tucker Carlson get into a heated debate about a trillion-year-old man and the media's handling of the anti-abortion protest in Ferguson, Missouri. Glenn also talks about China's economic problems and why we should be worried about it.
00:01:22.920He can also create earthquakes with his anger, hurricanes with his mind, and he'll give you some good gardening tips so you can stay away from the Jews.
00:01:42.180Carol Roth is on the show today, and I asked her about China.
00:01:49.080Things are starting to get not so good with China.
00:01:53.700You know, it happens sometimes between friends when somebody, you know, sends over the smallpox.
00:02:00.720And things are just not getting great with China.
00:02:04.200And we rely on China for almost everything, including 18 of 21 critical antibiotics, 72% of the ingredients on those, 72% come from overseas.
00:02:35.620Five different courses of antibiotics that you can use to treat a long list of bacterial illnesses, UTIs, respiratory infections, sinusitis, skin infections, and so much more.
00:02:45.680We are having a shortage now on breathers for asthma.
00:02:52.180Now, not actually the device, but the medicine you put in.
00:05:01.360So, it's a really good question, Glenn, and I think the reason why you are confused about this, and frankly, so many economists have gotten this wrong, is everybody's looking for benchmarks, and we are in unprecedented times economically.
00:05:17.620You know, we've never had a period in history where they decided to keep interest rates suppressed and, frankly, near zero for 15 years, just completely suppressing and creating this easy money policy.
00:05:32.480We've never had a period in time where the people who are in charge of the most robust economy in the world said, hey, we'll just shut down a third of it for a little while and then try to turn it right back on and assume there's going to be no problems like we're power cycling a modem.
00:05:50.200We've never had a point in time where we've had the Federal Reserve print so much money that they then have $9 trillion on their balance sheet.
00:05:59.660So, all of these things have caused massive disruptions to every piece of the economy, not to mention, you know, looking forward to your special tonight, you know, the crazy energy policy that has created this undersupply throughout the economy in oil, in labor, you know, in food and housing, all of these areas where the Fed, you know, can't print those things like they print oil.
00:06:26.540So, a lot of people are saying, you know, why is it that the Fed is raising rates and, you know, we're not seeing the immediate effect of it?
00:06:34.420And a lot of it is, I call it the recession being late to the party.
00:06:39.940It's not that they're not going to show up.
00:06:42.360They're just being fashionably late because we have so many weird things that we're working through where there are no benchmarks.
00:06:49.820You know, if you've had cheap capital for 15 years, if you are a business, you have plenty of capital that you have locked down at low interest rates.
00:07:01.700So, you probably anticipated this and don't necessarily need that, you know, today to work through whatever it is you're working through.
00:07:09.340A lot of consumers have locked in those interest rates.
00:07:12.220So, you know, when we see the Fed raising rates, it's going to take a little while for people to run out of that debt capacity and to say, okay, I need more.
00:07:21.560And so, we're really just seeing that timing issue that's going on because of all of these central planning mistakes, or perhaps you believe it was intentional.
00:07:30.540You can make a good case either way, but the central planning messing with the economy.
00:07:34.880Okay, so I see things like car repossessions going through the roof, okay?
00:07:45.480So, that's happening, but at the same time, I keep seeing these labor statistics that show everybody's got a job, it's great, and then I hear, well, no, they fudged the numbers.
00:07:59.780And I don't understand what's happening with the labor numbers.
00:08:04.580Okay, so let's unpack this, and I'm going to use both retail sales and labor to sort of explain this.
00:08:10.380So, as Mark Twain said, three kinds of lies, right?
00:08:15.860So, anytime you're looking at data, most people who work with it try to normalize it to throw out things that are unusual to make more sense of it and to make it easier to understand and interpret and predict from.
00:08:29.520So, if you had things that are crazy highs and crazy lows, you might throw that out.
00:08:33.620What they do in terms of things like retail sales and the labor force is they do a seasonal adjustment.
00:08:40.460And so, the best way for you to understand this is, you know, during the holiday season, lots of people decide to do their shopping in November, December, and then that falls off a cliff in January when people are returning things and are all tapped out.
00:08:55.700So, they make a guess based on historical benchmarks, like what should that look like on a normalized basis based on everything that we've seen, and we're just going to make those adjustments, which sounds great until things don't behave like they did historically.
00:09:11.820So, for example, if you think about retail sales, Morgan Stanley says normally we would have a 20% drop between December and January in retail sales.
00:09:23.840But what happened this year is people started shopping early.
00:09:26.900December wasn't quite as robust as they planned.
00:09:29.780So, January didn't look quite as bad because December wasn't quite as good.
00:09:34.320So, those sales only came down 16.2% when they were projecting them to come down 20%.
00:09:44.320The same thing happens when you look at the hiring numbers because we don't have as many people in the labor force.
00:09:52.320If you think about all of those retail employees who are working, right, they're expected to be laid off in January, but now they didn't even have enough people to hire.
00:10:00.440So, they expected that there would be 3 million jobs cut in January, but there were only 2.5 million.
00:10:08.160Oh, my God, what a great difference between December and January.
00:10:11.960So, this all goes into them trying to adjust the data and use it seasonally adjusted.
00:10:18.560And, again, you can say that this makes sense or is nefarious.
00:10:22.820I think there's a case to be made on both sides.
00:10:25.340But that's why you have this divergence that is difficult for everyone to get their arms and their heads wrapped around when you see what's going on out in the real world.
00:10:34.340So, when it comes to inflation, the Fed is raising the interest rates, but the government is spending money unlike ever before.
00:10:45.160No matter what Joe Biden says, we are just pouring money out of the door.
00:10:51.040However, the idea of raising interest rates is you slow the engine down.
00:11:35.240And one of the ways they do that is they send a signal to the government.
00:11:38.340They've given the government the permission through easy money for, as we said, about the last 15 years to be able to spend and finance that at a low rate.
00:11:47.140Now, as they're raising rates, that's supposed to send a signal to the government, hey, it's become really expensive for you to borrow.
00:11:58.620We're just going to spend like drunken sailors.
00:12:00.900No disrespect meant to drunken sailors.
00:12:03.460So that basically means that component of the GDP is going to stay very solid.
00:12:08.800It does another thing, though, psychologically, if you think about it, Glenn, if you had the government practicing austerity,
00:12:15.880if you said we need to slow things down, then all of a sudden you as a consumer went, oh, well, maybe things aren't as great as they possibly are.
00:12:26.340The government's practicing some austerity.
00:12:28.980I'm going to practice some austerity, too, because I'm worried about what's going on.
00:12:49.960And another thing that you have things like the cost of living adjustment that happened because of inflation that hit almost 70 million Americans,
00:12:59.020you know, starting in December into January of this year, that's effectively more stimulus into the economy.
00:13:07.020So you still have all of the stimulus going on.
00:13:09.460What the Fed should be doing here is saying, you know what?
00:37:53.480Now, can I flip this around just a bit?
00:37:56.220But I know that if I were you, I would have thought, I mean, I got them dead to rights here.
00:38:04.340This is going to blow this whole thing up.
00:38:07.280And there's going to be a lot of people, not everybody, but there will be a lot of people who may have been on the other side and were like, wait a minute, wait a minute.
00:38:15.280Because this is so critical, you cannot live in a free society where the Justice Department is corrupt, the judges are corrupt, the media is corrupt, and the politicians are corrupt.
00:38:35.600So everyone should be concerned about this.
00:38:38.560Are you surprised at all that the reaction from everyone, it seems, in power?
00:38:50.540I am surprised, but I also think this is foundational.
00:38:55.860I mean, you know, we talk about a lot of different topics on the show, and some of them, I think, are really important and interesting, and they get no response and nobody cares.
00:39:04.620You know, I always say this to my staff.
00:39:06.820Like, we could get on the air tonight and say, you know, we really should invade Belgium, because those Walloons are just, like, they're loathsome people, and we should just put them all in camps.
00:40:34.940That story is at the center of what they're doing and what they're planning, obviously.
00:40:41.700And this is why the White House, this is just breaking, they are making it about you.
00:40:50.260In comments shared first with Politico, the White House joined Republican Senate leaders who a day earlier assailed Carlson's broadcast of selected assault footage
00:41:01.140as being filled with offensive and misleading conclusions.
00:41:06.360We agree with the chief of the Capitol Police and the wide range of bipartisan lawmakers who have condemned this false depiction of the unprecedented violent attack on our Constitution and rule of law,
00:41:19.120which cost police officers their lives.
00:41:22.160We also agree with Fox News' own attorneys and executives who have now repeatedly stressed in multiple courts of law that Tucker Carlson is just not credible.
00:41:36.500Oh, well, it does sound, Glenn, like everyone's against me.
00:41:46.400But I don't, you know, from my perspective, it's really not about me.
00:41:53.960And I continue to think that I'm, you know, I've always been, not always, but as I've aged, I've been willing and I want to be willing to admit my own flaws and my own sins, you know, my own inherent crappiness as a person.
00:42:33.120I mean, I know a lot of, I know all the talk show hosts, I know everybody right in our business as you do too.
00:42:37.780And a lot of them are just like, I'm going to take a pass on that and just like get mad about tax rates or whatever, whatever it is, whatever the story that you can safely push and other, you know, and play the partisan, the silly partisan game.
00:42:56.020It's not about ideology, even it's about power.
00:42:59.000And, and I just feel like for the short time I'm on earth and for however long I have my current job, I should be as honest as I can possibly be and focus on the issues that actually matter.
00:43:30.080As long as you continue to stay tethered in reality and with God and you speak the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, you are, you are going to have, I think, divine protection around you.
00:43:44.660And as someone who has been literally in your place, I will always have your back.