00:10:17.340And the Middle East has seen this movie before, and they know how it ends if it's left unfinished.
00:10:23.280So, you know, for anybody who's been saying Israel's controlling everything, ask yourself, why are the Arab states who have every reason to oppose Israel quietly aligned with the same exact outcome and quietly saying we might go in ourselves?
00:10:39.380This is about Iran becoming the dominant power in the Middle East and controlling terror and also the most important energy choke point on earth.
00:10:51.480The demands of Iran are insane, but they do want control.
00:27:01.660Thank you. Again, did I say thank you, Delta? Thank you.
00:27:05.000so what does this mean well for years our elected officials just glide past all of the things that
00:27:15.660you have to do at the airport they skip the line they avoid the friction they avoid you you know
00:27:20.680the little people because they're special and now delta thank you delta says you know what we're
00:27:26.860pausing that we're not eliminating it we're not we're not debating it we're just adjusting it
00:27:31.380for right now. And they call it a perk. Delta, I think you're using the wrong word. It is a perk.
00:27:40.000You look at it as a perk, but it's insulation. Because the moment our leaders feel what you feel,
00:27:47.460where they stand, where you have to stand, their decisions change. And history's really clear on
00:27:53.220this. The ruling class always separates itself first, and then it forgets what it's like to be
00:27:58.040a normal person. Rome did it. Versailles did it. Washington is doing it right now.
00:28:03.860And when that separation grows, accountability dies.
00:28:08.640Story number one. Story number two, the border and the meaning of a nation.
00:28:14.220The Supreme Court, there's a story in the news today that appears the Supreme Court is ready
00:28:19.400to side with enforcement, allowing limits on asylum claims processed from outside the U.S.
00:28:26.400okay strip away all of the politics here this is the real question does a nation have a right to
00:28:33.280define itself of course it does or it's not a nation how can you be a nation if the world
00:28:41.120gets to define you this is not a modern debate this isn't complex this is easy every civilization
00:28:49.200that loses control of its borders loses control of its identity not overnight but inevitably
00:28:56.260and it's over and here's why it matters today what you're seeing with the supreme court and
00:29:03.420warning because this could change we lose control of the house and the senate you're going to lose
00:29:08.020the control of who's coming up because we got a lot of old conservatives but right now you're
00:29:15.160seeing reality no the law catch up to reality they're not creating it they're catching up to
00:29:22.880reality. Story number three, lawfare and the weaponization of justice.
00:29:31.860There are a few stories out there now that are shocking and should be shocking and horrifying.
00:29:39.040I'm going to get into this next hour. Shocking and horrifying should shake the country to its core.
00:29:45.840new reports are out now show that efforts to obtain records tied to political figures
00:29:52.700were far more expansive than anybody admitted okay let me translate that into plain english
00:29:59.760after 9-11 we all were panicked and worried and freaking out we're like god says patriot
00:30:08.380in the act, it must be patriotic. And so we passed a bunch of tools in a toolbox that we were told
00:30:17.020were designed to protect the public. Okay. Those tools are now aimed inward, not outward, inward.
00:30:27.020And once that line is crossed, once law becomes a weapon, you don't have equal justice anymore.
00:30:33.020you have leverage and a banana republic and history has a lot to tell you about that
00:30:39.380when governments begin investigating citizens differently based on political alignment
00:30:45.480that does not stabilize a country it fractures it every single time story number four
00:30:53.180iran and the illusion of control just told you we sent a 15 point proposal to iran iran responds
00:31:01.600with demands that it's not negotiation it's more like victory terms close all your bases you know
00:31:07.720pay reparations I mean it sounded like I was on a college campus when I heard that one at the same
00:31:12.880time inside Iran the story that nobody's talking about hundreds are being arrested for speech for
00:31:20.120cyberspace activity well there's an old-timey word that only guys with big gray beards would use
00:31:26.240so i want you to understand the contradiction on this one externally they're negotiating
00:31:33.260internally there is no negotiation they are tightening control that is not a regime
00:31:40.740preparing for peace that is a regime managing instability and this is the part that i think
00:31:47.960most of us miss there are credible signals that iran is weaker than it appears
00:31:53.860When you have an animal in a corner, they become more dangerous because they're cornered and they're cornered. Again, weak regimes don't go quietly. They either collapse or they lash out. We'll see which one is going to happen.
00:32:16.340story number there they're lashing out internally story number five the economy and what i believe
00:32:23.180is a false calm oil drop today gold rises markets breathe on based on what what people are saying
00:32:32.740it's stabilizing based on what this is the problem with our entire stock market it's not based on
00:32:38.480anything real anymore okay warnings of a recession tied directly to geopolitical shock
00:32:46.160hey we've seen this movie before we saw it in 1973 with the oil shock we saw it with a credit
00:32:51.400shock in 1974 this is different this time it's different yeah is it because the pattern is
00:32:57.880identical the global system stretched too thin meets disruption it can't absorb and then things
00:33:06.560start to break and it doesn't break evenly it breaks where you live it doesn't break necessarily
00:33:14.120for those who get the VIP treatment at the airport. It breaks on you, groceries and jobs
00:33:21.660and vacations you suddenly can't afford. Which brings me to number six, story number six,
00:33:29.040AI and the Quiet Revolution. All of this stuff is happening and the labor department just launched
00:33:37.000AI training. And when I read this story, I thought, oh, just what we need, the government
00:33:42.680trying to tell us how to use ai my gosh i have briefed people in the government i have okay
00:33:49.680that's that's how bad things are i have briefed them on ai and they they i mean it's it's it's
00:33:58.540like you're talking to a caveman they have absolutely no understanding most of them some
00:34:03.460do most of them have no understanding i mean they're still at the pager system so would i get
00:34:10.120this? Can I get ChatGPT on my pager? No. Anyway, companies are openly saying massive job cuts are
00:34:21.360inevitable and they're coming. And your home, your house is being integrated into the power grid to
00:34:27.980feed AI infrastructure. This is really, really, really bad. Let this sink in. Your job is going
00:34:37.800to be replaced in the next few years. Your energy is being repurposed and you're being offered a
00:34:45.200course to adapt. It's not going to go over well. These server farms cannot take a drop of energy,
00:34:56.860not one piece of energy that we are now producing for the public. They must be forced to produce
00:35:03.340their own energy because they will end up sucking all of the energy and we will be paying skyrocketing
00:35:11.200prices for energy. This is the early stage of a complete economic rewiring that will happen
00:35:18.340if Donald Trump somehow or another is not allowed to finish the job on these AI server farms where
00:35:28.920he is saying, I'm giving you the green light. You build your own power plant. That has to be
00:35:34.700codified. Okay, so step back. Let's look at all six stories here. What do they all have in common?
00:35:41.500One, power is separating from people. Borders are being redefined. The same time justice is
00:35:51.640being questioned. War is destabilizing, and the economy is already fragile, and technology is
00:35:59.840shaping everything underneath all of it. This is not chaos. I mean, some of it is war is chaos,
00:36:08.140but this is not chaos. This is a world in transition. There's a word for that, realignment.
00:36:17.400old the old systems that don't work new systems aren't fully built and the people down at the
00:36:26.100bottom and the middle they feel that first that's you so what actually matters to you today
00:36:33.500none of the politics none of the outrage cycle okay the the votes that are happening in congress
00:36:41.260they absolutely mean something but listening to the pinheads argue back and forth that is
00:36:46.240a waste of time. Watch for these things. Watch for the things when leaders stop or are being
00:36:53.940forced to stop living in their palace and start living like citizens. Did I mention Delta Airlines?
00:37:01.840Thank you. When laws are applied unevenly, big danger, we're going to get into that next.
00:37:08.320When negotiations sound like ultimatums, when markets calm down too quickly for no apparent
00:37:14.940reason and when technology moves faster than the culture than the culture can absorb those are not
00:37:22.300headlines those are all warning lights and one last thing there was a line buried in all of this
00:37:29.300in our newsletter today there is a there's a story about preparing the way even if you're
00:37:35.200not perfect i think this is the most important story of the day okay because none of this is
00:37:43.100going to be fixed with perfect people history doesn't turn on perfect people it doesn't history
00:37:49.680turns on people who see clearly and act even though they're not perfect not violently not
00:37:56.920recklessly but deliberately they see it they know what they're supposed to do and they act
00:38:02.900and they don't allow excuses to get in their way like i don't have the power i don't really know
00:38:08.520this i'm not the one i'm not smart enough it won't really make it they just do what they're
00:38:13.520supposed to do and they're not perfect and most times that's just teach your children
00:38:19.240that strengthen your community that's and i'm saying this like a broken record to
00:38:25.320members of my family right now get back to church
00:38:28.780refusing to be manipulated by every headline those things collapse in a society doesn't begin
00:38:37.100with the loudest voices, it begins with the quietest bystanders. And it's stopped the same way
00:38:45.080by people who decide they're not going to be a bystander anymore.
00:38:50.400Most of us think about protecting our home in very physical ways. We lock the doors,
00:38:54.980we install the cameras, but there's another way that your home can be targeted and it doesn't
00:38:59.160involve anyone stepping foot in your property. It is actually called home title fraud and it's
00:39:04.100exactly what it sounds like. Criminals forge documents. They file them with the county. They
00:39:08.780transfer ownership of your home into their name. And then once all that happens, they can attempt
00:39:14.380to take out loans against your property or even try to sell it out from under you. The scary part
00:39:19.280is like you don't really know much about this as it's going on. Regular homeowners insurance doesn't
00:39:23.780typically protect you from this. And the mortgage company isn't looking for it either. That's why
00:39:28.720you need home title lock. They monitor your home's title and alert you to any changes that could
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00:40:23.300about lifelock how long do you think it'll take before you know somebody's using your identity
00:40:27.820if you had the right identity had the right information i mean when i mean it would be
00:40:32.800tempting when you could open accounts make purchases setting things in motion that you
00:40:37.440didn't even know you know would the people who you're you doing it wouldn't have any idea it
00:40:43.100was underway i mean how tempting is that if you're a bad guy okay um you're not a bad guy but there
00:40:49.540are lots of bad guys out there and and even countries that are behind this trying to collapse
00:40:54.560us, taking your wealth. They're constantly monitoring at LifeLock for signs that your
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00:46:23.480And this is one of many like this at large and Azerbaijani, a national who came here illegally is now accused of a massive 90 million dollar health care scam in California.
00:46:41.120And that's happening everywhere. OK. And there is one other story.
00:46:47.680Oh, the wiretapping, the wiretapping and the way Jack Smith has gone after Donald Trump and all of his allies when he was out of office.
00:47:04.120Wait, this is much, much bigger than Watergate ever dreamt.
00:47:11.680All three of these have one thing in common.
00:47:14.020people are either defending those things on one side or they're shrugging going ah
00:47:22.760so i started looking up where in a life cycle of a republic does shrugging come in and i found
00:47:31.740some disturbing things and i want to share them with you um so let me let me take one minute and
00:47:37.560tell you about Mercury One and then I'll get into this. You know, some problems feel really big
00:47:45.200until somebody who knows what they're doing steps in. It's in the same situation almost every time.
00:47:53.160Nothing about it has changed. Suddenly somebody comes in that knows what they're doing and it's
00:47:58.400not overwhelming because there's clarity, there's direction, there's a plan. That is what my
00:48:02.900foundation mercury one does when disaster strikes whether it's a storm or a conflict or a community
00:48:08.800in crisis they show up with organization with purpose and the ability to turn chaos into
00:48:14.160something that can actually be managed we are not we we play erin to other other organizations
00:48:21.300moses we want to make sure they have everything they need we go into a situation who is doing the
00:48:26.840amount of help. We go find them. How can we help you? Okay. This matters a great deal. And you
00:48:34.620have changed so many communities lives, so many people's lives. You have rescued thousands of
00:48:41.080people, literally rescued thousands of people. Go to mercuryone.org and be a part of this. If
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00:48:53.280on the ground, planes in the air, and lights in the darkness. It's mercuryone.org. Mercuryone.org.
00:49:01.240Okay, so I want to talk to you about, you know, you've heard the phrase death by a thousand
00:49:09.680paper cuts. This is death by a thousand shrugs. We are entering what I believe is either the
00:49:18.580end phase or the beginning phase of of a story okay might be the last phase of a republic
00:49:25.160uh and if it is it's the most dangerous yet but looking back into history to see if it's the last
00:49:32.220step of an empire or republic or the first step into real darkness i don't know but it's what i
00:49:41.480would like to call moral shrugging and with that comes stacked justifications i don't know if i'll
00:49:47.180get to that one here, but let me start with moral shrugging. All of our problems, all of them can be
00:49:54.720turned around pretty easily if we choose. If we all would go, that one matters. I see that lines
00:50:02.480with principles. That one really matters. Outrage can be corrected. Debate can be had. Lines can be
00:50:09.220drawn but what's killing us right now is indifference indifference is anesthesia that
00:50:16.960allows a free society to be operated on without ever waking up what we're seeing
00:50:24.400what we're sensing right now is really critical citizens are being murdered and raped in our own
00:50:36.820streets let me let me just give you the reaction um what was it um play uh the cut that i just
00:50:44.300heard i think it was cut nine this is a chicago alder woman who's blaming um who's blaming uh
00:50:52.660sheridan sheridan gordon gorman for her own death at the hands of an illegal listen to what
00:50:59.720this alder woman says well from what i've been told so far right from what police know from
00:51:04.760from speaking to the students who were with her um it seems she might have that as they were just
00:51:13.180out you know people go out to the beach all the time right and they go out on the pier they walk
00:51:17.220around so the kids were out doing normal normal things people do in the neighborhood and it sounds
00:51:22.740like this might have been a wrong place wrong time running into a person who had a gun they
00:51:27.860might have startled this person at the end of the pier unintentionally um stop stop stop stop stop
00:51:34.760so this is not indifference this is worse this is worse this is justification listen what she's
00:51:41.680saying here's a chicago alder woman who's now just saying might have startled somebody with a gun
00:51:46.980you're not supposed to have a gun in chicago what do you mean startled somebody with a gun
00:51:50.260when was the last time you heard anybody on the left just pass by someone with a gun and didn't
00:51:55.600blame it on the gun and the person with the gun well here's one so clear justification of what
00:52:02.920happen wrong place wrong time you're blaming her for being at a place where she should be safe
00:52:08.880wrong place wrong time you know who was there in the wrong place at the wrong time the illegal
00:52:13.020shouldn't have been there should have been in a completely different country
00:52:16.440so we have this being said and then all the people that agree with these things shrugging
00:52:25.320and quite honestly many on our side because we're so damn tired of it we shrug too
00:52:32.840nothing's going to happen anyway that's extraordinarily dangerous we have corruption
00:52:40.700deep beyond this deep beyond Watergate theft from the taxpayer that is bigger than all Bernie
00:52:48.820Madoff scandals ever done combined it's been exposed what's happening what is happening that
00:53:00.260was my question last night and worse yet why are leaders justifying it this is not just a political
00:53:06.720problem this is a civilizational warning light so last night i'm like okay so let me go back in
00:53:14.740history and see if what happens when the average joe begins to shrug off massive corruption and
00:53:21.420the government doing things it's not supposed to do and people just like whatever well you find it
00:53:29.560When regimes of any ideology begin to believe they are in a final struggle, something shifts, the rules change, the change, the restraints come off, the norms, the quiet agreements that hold societies together, they're no longer seen as virtues, they're seen as obstacles.
00:53:50.780Let me take you to the late stages of revolutionary movements in France, French Revolution.
00:53:59.600Suspicion alone became grounds for imprisonment.
00:54:10.740The result was what we call the reign of terror.
00:54:14.500And it went on and on and on at the gallows.
00:54:18.160I'm sorry, not the gallows, the guillotines.
00:54:20.780Russia 1917 Bolsheviks move quickly from political opposition to political elimination
00:54:27.820no debate liquidation within a very short period of time newspapers were shut down
00:54:34.280dissent was criminalized entire categories of people laid enemies labeled enemies of the state
00:54:39.220and killed happened in Germany same way in Iran 1979 by the way notice all of these have a
00:54:47.780collective and or marxist element to all of these revolutions
00:54:54.3801979 the revolution was sold broadly different factions okay different hopes you had the students
00:55:03.480marxists and then you had the clerical hardliners you had all of the people in the mosques they all
00:55:11.720got together. Then the allies became traitors, and courts became instruments, and the revolution
00:55:18.520devoured all of the Marxists. Different ideology, different languages, same pattern. When a movement
00:55:26.320believes, listen, the stakes are existential, the opposition is not just wrong, but illegitimate
00:55:34.960and dangerous, and this might be the last chance to get it right, then restraint is no longer
00:55:42.320rewarded. Acceleration is. Now, both sides are in that situation. Both sides. We both think
00:55:51.100if the other side gets into power, we're doomed, right? We both think that.
00:55:55.740this is where it's not where we are yet it's where we could easily be in the next two election cycles
00:56:07.160just based on what i'm seeing okay what are the democrat powers saying right now
00:56:12.820that when they get in there will be trials arrests and we have to stop these people from
00:56:18.460ever gaining power again we have to teach them a lesson this dehumanizing authoritarian language
00:56:24.980really began hardcore with teeth in the covid era when doctors and nurses both said you know we
00:56:31.460should let these people die we shouldn't treat these people because they won't go along with
00:56:35.340the political mandates and it has gotten much worse and nobody paid for that because with covid
00:56:41.580we cried out but collectively the whole world went whatever
00:56:47.140However, when you're hearing language that reframes fellow citizens as threats to democracy, enemies from within, and people who must be dealt with, that's not normal political rhetoric.
00:57:11.380I use that language when I tell you the Islamists are here.
00:57:14.780When I say the Islamists are here, the enemy is already here. It's already within our gates. What does that imply? What am I saying with that? We're dead.
00:57:30.160if we don't pay attention to this and get this ideology out we're dead what else does that imply
00:57:38.520that if we don't act reasonably now we are going to have i've said it even we will be at war
00:57:46.160with islamists we will in our own country so when you hear a politician or anybody on the left
00:57:53.580talk about somebody on the right or the right talk about somebody on the left and they say
00:57:58.840they're the enemy they're the enemy within you should understand that automatically to people
00:58:04.580puts you in the state of understanding that this is life or death this is a final battle i hope to
00:58:12.080deal with it one way but if we have to we'll deal with it another then when legal systems begin to
00:58:17.960be discussed as tools to correct political outcomes that's a whole nother shift when speech
00:58:24.500becomes something to regulate, not because it's false, but because it's dangerous to
00:58:30.240the preferred outcome, you no longer have a debate over ideas.
00:58:34.940You are in a debate over permission, and that is no longer a free country.
01:08:42.300When silence becomes safer than speaking, okay?
01:08:46.720Or the next step, language that removes legitimacy from any opposition.
01:08:53.080They're not wrong, but they shouldn't be allowed.
01:08:55.380Then the normalization of unequal justice. Similar actions produce wildly different consequences depending on the political alignment. You're seeing that in Chicago right now. Guy with a gun kills a woman on a pier. You know how that ends in Chicago? Not this time because he's an illegal. So now he's the hero.
01:09:17.480then the last one indifference from the public this is the final stage before i believe acceleration
01:09:26.560so what do you do about it i don't know who i'm going to talk to in the audience here
01:09:32.380because not everybody will think this way not everybody will understand it but it's going to
01:09:37.320take enough of us there has to be enough of us that are willing to say that is unthinkable but
01:09:43.100possible and i cannot be the quiet one in the crowd when the crowd starts crying for blood left
01:09:50.700right indifferent it doesn't matter when the world truly goes insane and we have lost it because the
01:09:58.840crowd is indifferent how do you round up a bunch of people you lie to them and you convince other
01:10:04.880people that your lies are true and they shrug they they don't show up for one reason or another
01:10:12.240they just don't show up and then the boots come marching in so how do you prepare because you're
01:10:19.520not going to be the hero you want to be unless you are living it right now and doing everything
01:10:25.680you can to live this right now so let me give you and i don't know if i can get to all 12 i'll post
01:10:32.100these but let me give you a few that you can do right now always tell the truth even in all of
01:10:38.860the small things. Not the grand, not the heroic truth, just the daily truth. Always tell the
01:10:46.460truth. Don't repeat something that you haven't verified. Don't nod along in a group when you
01:10:54.800disagree. Don't soften the reality to avoid discomfort. Now, that doesn't mean you have to
01:11:02.520be picking fights with people but you're in a group of people just live live not by lies
01:11:08.900you're in a group of people and they're starting to tell you how charlie kirk was murdered by
01:11:14.440you know i don't care space aliens you don't have to say you're stupid you just say that's not true
01:11:20.160that's not true um and um here's why it's not true or if you don't know that it you don't you
01:11:28.060can't you haven't done your homework on it you can say i highly suspect that is not true i would
01:11:35.880love to hear your reasoning behind that because i'm going to do my own homework on this but i
01:11:41.160i doubt that is true okay you must be a road bump okay every time you bend the truth truth to make
01:11:49.900your life a little bit easier you are rehearsing for surrender and every time you speak it calmly
01:11:56.840and clearly, you are rehearsing courage. Next thing you have to do, build a tolerance for
01:12:04.840social friction. Most people don't fear jail because they don't see themselves going to jail.
01:12:10.800They fear being disliked. Start there. Say something mildly unpopular in a calm setting,
01:12:20.300not to cause trouble, just to rehearse. Disagree without raising your voice. Hold your ground
01:12:26.480without needing approval or to win. Just, that's not true. If you can't endure an awkward
01:12:35.080conversation, you will not be able to endure real pressure. Courage is a muscle. You must
01:12:43.180practice these things, but you must do it in a peaceful way. Next thing, separate your identity
01:12:51.420from your tribe. The moment your beliefs are tied to your group's approval, you're owned,
01:12:57.380you're dead. That's stacked justification. You may come in with one viewpoint that you think
01:13:03.760is reasonable, but this society now makes it so you must agree with all of it because you're a
01:13:13.880traitor if you don't. And you will be forever afraid of being exposed, so you go along with it.
01:13:20.420separate yourself from your tribe criticize your own side when they're wrong defend fairness for
01:13:29.420people you disagree with refuse to cheer for something just because it benefits your team
01:13:35.460this builds independence and that's the core of moral stability you have to be independent
01:13:42.820you have to think for yourself and you have to have the courage to say it
01:13:46.200number four strengthen your understanding of first principles not talking points
01:13:54.120principles know things deeply like why free speech matters especially for views you dislike
01:14:03.420you've you've probably said it a million times if you're my age i'll i strongly disagree but
01:14:09.640i'll defend with my life you're right to say those things why why would you do that why is
01:14:15.120free speech important? Why is equal justice important even when it's really inconvenient?
01:14:23.600Why does due process matter for everyone, including the guilty? If you don't understand
01:14:30.640why something matters, you will trade it away when it's tested because you won't be able to defend it.
01:14:36.340next limit your consumption of outrage this is something i am trying to limit my
01:14:44.780vomiting of outrage on you i am trying to give you perspective and things that you
01:14:50.060can actually use in your life because i do believe troubled times are coming
01:14:53.920outrage outrage feels like action but it's not it exhausts you it distorts you it makes
01:15:03.000makes it feel like everything is urgent. And yet, if everything is urgent, nothing really is urgent
01:15:09.940or important. So set boundaries on news intake. Seek primary sources over commentary. I say that
01:15:18.600understanding that I'm a commentator. You're much better off if you could find primary sources
01:15:26.280to uh to get the news you should get the news from a primary source over me
01:15:33.020or anybody else but if you do listen to commentary try to listen to the ones that
01:15:41.120are not pouring gasoline they're trying to be fair and know that you can't really trust them
01:15:46.400either because not everybody everybody has their own thing okay ask does this affect my actual
01:15:55.440behavior. Clarity is strength. Constant agitation is weakness. Six, build real-world relationships.
01:16:06.140Isolation is the breeding ground of fear. You are far less likely to stand alone. You are far more
01:16:13.520likely to stand with others that are around you that you trust. So know your neighbors, have
01:16:20.280conversations outside of your echo chamber. Build relationships built on shared values,
01:16:27.640not just shared opinions. We are building a society on shared opinions. That's death.
01:16:34.300We have to be shared values and principles. Freedom has always been defended in communities,
01:16:40.520not in comment sections. Practice self-discipline in unrelated areas. This seems totally disconnected,
01:16:50.280But the more I think about this one, the more I think it's true.
01:16:53.960You have to keep your commitments because you remember courage is a muscle.
01:27:12.180If you missed any of it's been a really good program, you should go back and listen to the whole podcast.
01:27:17.640You can get it at glenbeck.com slash torch, the whole thing, including the insider extra information.
01:27:23.620But you can also get it wherever you get your podcast.
01:27:25.900Listen to it in the long form today because there's a lot of really good information in it.
01:27:29.820But I started with the 15 points that Donald Trump is trying to negotiate for and the response from Iran or what they're saying they're negotiating for.
01:27:40.100But we don't even know who we're negotiating with.
01:27:42.180So, the point of this is there's nothing that you can do about anything right now because we don't know the facts on who we're even negotiating with.
01:27:55.140So, I honestly don't understand why oil went down in price when he came out and said, I deliver the 15 points and blah, blah, blah.
01:30:15.480If you want to understand the economy, she speaks your language, carolroth.com slash news.
01:30:21.120Carol, there's several things I want to talk to you about.
01:30:23.120The first one that I don't understand is why oil dropped so dramatically,
01:30:28.760why everything is uh as stable as it is when really we have no news we don't know who we're
01:30:35.920negotiating with um iran came out with horrible demands that seem insane we came out with our 15
01:30:44.320point plan for peace but the world kind of went okay you know what this is good and the price of
01:30:50.180oil went down which is great but what are they basing this on well first glenn i just like
01:30:56.060everyone to know that in addition to a background in finance, business, and economics, I have seen
01:31:02.100both seasons of Landman. So I feel like this is right in my sweet spot to be able to explain to
01:31:07.900everybody. Right. No. Right. I got it. I got it. Good. Good. So the headline that is hitting the
01:31:13.780markets, and you have to remember that markets react to immediate news. You know, they look out
01:31:21.360long term kind of, but they do tend to go kind of minute to minute, you know, when you're looking
01:31:28.120at it at any point in time. So the news that came out on CNBC is that Iran signaled safe passage
01:31:35.480for, quote, non-hostile ships through the Strait of Hormuz. So the market is interpreting that,
01:31:42.920whether it's true or not, but in this moment of time, that there is going to be more opening
01:31:50.240And particularly for countries that it may be well aligned with, especially Asia, who is very much affected by the non-travel of ships through this critical junction, there has been at least the interpretation of a signal that that is going to open up somewhat.
01:32:10.160But so they're perceiving that is OK, things are moving in the right direction, that, you
01:32:16.400know, there may be more transportation going through.
01:32:18.900And that is what is feeding into prices across the markets today, starting with that drop
01:43:48.860so um neil ferguson i think is a pretty brilliant guy um historian also you know economics guy
01:44:10.160um and he has just said brace yourself uh a recession is coming the war in iran is choking
01:44:17.620global energy supply history show shocks like this rarely end without a recession that'd be
01:44:22.420very very bad for the republicans and politics in america um how do you see it carol yes it would
01:44:30.640be very bad for everyone and uh i read uh neil ferguson's piece as well and i thought that he
01:44:37.080made some very interesting points um that are true and that increases the the possibility of
01:44:46.420a recession, but doesn't necessarily make it probable. So I think that he's right. Energy
01:44:52.640shocks obviously matter. They ripple through households. They create issues with costs for
01:44:59.680food, industrial costs. They influence how central banks react. If you look back historically,
01:45:06.300as he points out, in many recessions, they have been an underpinning factor. I think that the one
01:45:15.380area where I would take issue, and I would say, like you said, Niall Ferguson is brilliant. He
01:45:21.300is a historian, but I don't think he is an economic historian. And so he's got his toolkit
01:45:28.780that he's showing off, but where he may not be as well-versed is in what, you know, fiscally
01:45:37.500the U.S. looked like in the time periods he was looking at, you know, like the 1970s versus today.
01:45:44.680And the U.S. looks absolutely nothing today like it did back then, right, in terms of the mix of goods and services in the economy, in terms of the overall national debt.
01:45:59.880I mean, the national debt back then was like half a trillion dollars.
01:46:04.260The debt to GDP was like 30% versus 120% today.
01:46:10.740Deficits were, you know, like 1% to 2% of GDP versus 6% today.
01:46:17.680And then one of the really big things is that we were a net creditor to the world.
01:46:21.820Now we're the biggest net debtor to the world.
01:46:24.160So the entire fiscal underpinning is different, which means we have to kind of look at not only, you know, what happens to our economy, but the decisions that would be made by the administration, which, you know, were kind of tenuous anyway, could those get accelerated and what would that mean?
01:46:46.180So I think in terms of his recession prediction, if you look at, you know, what many economists are thinking right now, this definitely increases the possibility.
01:46:58.000I think that, you know, 25 to 30 percent is kind of where most folks are in terms of, which is, you know, obviously not the majority likelihood of what happens.
01:47:07.860Right. I think personally, and, you know, this may not be. Oh, go ahead. Stagflation. We can come back to it if you want.
01:47:46.180i'm one of those people who tends to be an early adopter um you know if there's new technology
01:47:53.720a new idea new way of doing something i'm usually the first one that wants to try it i like seeing
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01:49:05.300get the explosive torch special now on demand at glennbeck.com slash torch
01:49:15.120let me go to christy uh she's on our vip torch insider line hello christy how can i help you
01:49:40.700Hi, Glenn. Thanks for taking my call. I really appreciate it.
01:49:47.780I was listening to you talk about identity, and it's really important that people anchor themselves in who they are by their principles.
01:49:58.020So I'm really grateful that you brought that up, because every label that's being projected, racist, Democrat, Republican, MAGA, liberal, whatever the label is, when we take it upon ourselves and actually make that our identity above our common humanity, that's when we're lost.
01:57:34.840um walt disney had oswald the rabbit and it became a big deal not the size of mickey mouse
01:57:42.400but close oswald the rabbit and he was making it for universal he was young and universal and
01:57:50.100everybody else is screwing him and so he realizes you know i got to get out they're screwing me i
01:57:54.740gotta do i gotta do this on my own and so uh he leaves and as he quits and they're like what are
01:58:02.300you gonna do walt and he's like i'm taking oswald and i'm going elsewhere he's already quit and
01:58:07.000they're like huh that's interesting because um you don't own the rights to oswald the rabbit
01:58:11.900he's like but it's mine they're like no you were working for us when you did that so it's ours
01:58:16.360so he decided then and there i've got a lawyer up on everything nobody's ever gonna own anything
01:58:22.900And by the way, he got the, well, he didn't, you know, they got the rights back to Oswald, the rabbit 15 or 20 years ago. Um, they wanted Al Michaels to move over to ABC. Um, no NBC wanted Al Michaels to move from ABC, um, and do sports for NBC.
01:58:47.040and he was an abc guy and uh so universal nbc calls up abc disney and says we want al michaels
01:58:56.740and they said over our dead body he's under a big contract and they said we'll pay anything
01:59:00.400anything they charged an arm and a leg no offense to our cornhole player but charged an arm and a
01:59:08.140leg and said and we want the rights to oswald the rabbit back and they actually transferred the
01:59:16.020rights so al michaels could go to uh nbc but anyway so they're very litigious and have been
01:59:22.120forever when they partnered with sara i thought it was really interesting because they had made
01:59:30.160a deal with sara it's this this video generator this ai um video generation app where you could
01:59:38.460take you know iron man or mickey mouse and you could get the rights to make a short film using
01:59:47.920those images completely anti-disney and i thought my gosh what has happened
01:59:55.420everybody's freaking out in hollywood about this kind of you know get rid of all of our jobs yeah
02:00:02.580yeah it is oh you care now uh um but they're all freaking out i don't know why open ai i mean it
02:00:12.180it was two years ago that they made this deal and it was a big deal and everybody was very clear
02:00:17.520you're going to be able to make movies and everything else and now suddenly chat gpt just
02:00:21.800canceled this and says no more and disney says nope no more of that don't know why they didn't
02:00:28.620say why um but is it i mean was hollywood just freaking out too much did disney cross the line
02:00:38.920were they hurting their friends in hollywood those bastards i hate them for that
02:00:44.560i wonder if they could play cornhole with no arms or legs probably not more in just a second let me
02:00:52.160tell you about my patriot supply 9 47 p.m you're in your kitchen not because you're hungry but
02:00:57.380because you're you know doing that thing we all do you're opening cabinets you're opening their
02:01:02.340fridge and just staring at it you know you're looking for something that isn't there and then
02:01:06.780you notice it you don't have as much food as you thought you did and you know not the we're in
02:01:11.740trouble level we're just going to be drinking pickle juice but a few meals maybe enough to get
02:01:16.780by as long as everything continues to work the way it always does and that's the assumption
02:01:20.540tomorrow stores are going to be open you know next week everything's going to be stocked still and
02:01:26.560you know you need something you can go get it but what if that's wrong what if something tomorrow
02:01:30.600happens and you've got pickle juice and not really very much else and the stores are being just
02:01:37.220emptied that's what my patriot supply is built for they help you fill the gap ahead of time
02:01:43.340long lasting emergency food practical preparedness so you're not staying in your kitchen at 9 47
02:01:48.500doing the math in your head you know you're sleeping for the love of p just go to sleep
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