Ep 178 | David Sacks: The Banking Crisis Is Even WORSE than You Think | The Glenn Beck Podcast
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 7 minutes
Words per Minute
169.8331
Summary
Glenn Moser talks to PayPal founder David Sachs about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the bailouts, and why he thinks the crisis is bigger than we thought. Glenn Moser is the host of the popular podcast, The All In, and is a regular contributor to Slate, The Huffington Post, and the New York Times.
Transcript
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We're filming this episode on the heels of the second largest bank failure in American history.
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If that weren't enough, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was followed immediately
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by the kind of rescue mission that only ever happens for the elites.
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In all the talks of T-bills and derivatives, many people find it hard to tell how this SVB
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situation will affect every man. After all, SVB donated roughly $73 million to Black Lives Matter.
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Systemic risk is the phrase that we keep hearing over and over and over again.
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Systemic is a word that has usually only been used or overused by overeducated leftists who treat BLM
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like a religion. Today's guest is an expert in all of these areas. Entrepreneur, investor.
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He co-wrote the diversity myth with Peter Thiel in 1998, and he's a founding CEO of PayPal,
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original members of the so-called PayPal mafia. Most recently, he has started the All In podcast
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with three friends, and it has exploded. People are drawn to the gathering place of economics,
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tech, politics, social issues, and poker. Three friends who don't always disagree, but are still
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friends, you know, like America used to be. The notoriously leftist rag Slate recently described
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the podcast as the infuriating, fascinating safe space for Silicon Valley's money men.
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Today's guest is one of those money men. He's what I would call an elite who is also anti-elitist.
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He is a big tech entrepreneur with working class ideals, inspired partly by his grandfather's
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candy factory. Today, welcome David Sachs. Before we get to David, he might be more optimistic
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on the banks and these bailouts than I am. If you are one of those people who think,
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Hey, David. Thanks for coming on. Hey, Glenn. How's it going? Yeah, of course. Good to see you.
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So it's been, you know, kind of a wild ride here and I don't, I'm not sure if it's over,
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um, but in a nutshell, um, who's responsible for the mess we find ourselves in and SVB?
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Well, I think that what we're dealing with here is obviously a banking crisis that goes well beyond
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SVB. Um, I mean, you now have Credit Suisse, which was the number two bank in Switzerland,
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uh, which is a, you know, they call it a GCIP, a globally systemically important bank that basically
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went under and had to be saved. Uh, you've had now four banks in the U S, uh, basically go under or
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have to be backstopped to the point where they would have gone under if you weren't backstopped.
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Uh, so clearly something's happening five banks and, you know, under two weeks, there's a larger
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phenomenon here. And I think it's pretty simple. I think that we've had the fastest rate tightening
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cycle ever, uh, or at least in our lifetimes where the fed has jacked up interest rates from almost
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nothing to almost 5%. And they did it in less than a year. They did in like nine or 10 months.
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And so that's created a tremendous whipsaw effect where, you know, the value of assets that depend
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on interest rates, which is pretty much all of them, right? They, they immediately have a massive
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change in value. So what you're seeing is that on the balance sheet of these banks, all of these
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assets that they thought were safe, like mortgage bonds, like treasuries, you know, 10 year bonds,
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these weren't supposed to be risky assets, right? You know, these aren't the, uh, these aren't the
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derivatives of 2008. These are, this is sort of the supposed to be the safe money, but you're seeing
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that they've been massively impaired in value because of the sudden spike in interest rates.
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And then on the other side of the, the balance sheet with deposits, uh, there's been a huge
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sort of tightening of the money supply. So depositors are leaving for a bunch of different
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reasons. Sometimes they just want to get a higher rate of return in a money market fund.
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Other times they're just drawing down capital. Sometimes they're fleeing to go to a bank that
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they perceive as safer, right? You know, one of the, the G SIPs, we should talk about that,
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but it's creating this tremendous stress on the banking system. And, um, I mean, that's basically
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what's happening. I think SVB was sort of the canary in the coal mine. It was a more extreme
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example of this effect, but you're seeing it now play out really across the banking system.
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You know, I keep hearing, uh, well, it was a canary in the coal mine. I think all the canaries
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are dead. Uh, we may not have many canaries left. Yeah. I mean, I, you know, I kind of sound,
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feel like I'm standing in the mine shaft going guys, all the birds are dead. Uh, because it,
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it, uh, what we did in 2008, um, you know, we violated the free market entirely. And then we
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just started printing this money. And I think on it, you know, I think people, I'll give them the
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benefit of the doubt. They honestly thought this would work. They didn't know they were backed up
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into a corner. And so they did this. Well, that has never worked. And I think they thought they were
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smarter than, you know, those who have done this in the past. And aren't we now just,
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just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic? I mean, we might be slowing it down. Maybe we've
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pulled back a couple of knots so we don't hit the iceberg, uh, you know, as fast, but aren't,
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aren't we going to hit the iceberg? I, I think the situation is pretty scary because, um,
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on the one hand, we still have pretty significant inflation, or at least that's what the
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reports are showing. Uh, there's an argument. I think that there might be significant latency
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in those reports, but, um, but on the one hand, you've got this inflation that the fed feels like
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it needs to combat, uh, with, with even higher interest rates. On the other hand, you have, uh,
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this tremendous stress that's building in the banking system. And, uh, I think these two things
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are fundamentally irreconcilable. I mean, it's sort of the Scylla and Charybdis of our, uh, of our
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financial situation here. If you want to keep raising rates to combat inflation, you're going
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to keep, you know, turning up the heat on the banks until more of them crack. On the other hand,
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if you want to stop raising rates or cut rates to save the banking system, then, you know, you could
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have an inflation problem. So this is the real inflation problem. You have Biden saying $6.8 trillion
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in spending for his budget. That's insanity. You can't, we can't keep doing this.
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And that's the thing. I mean, you, you see now how utterly irresponsible it has been. And I know
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that the spending and the money printing started before Biden, but he took it to another level,
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just a whole nother level. And, um, you know, because the guy has been in Washington for 50 years.
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So his, his view of a win, what a win looks like to him is you pass a big spending bill,
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the bigger, the better, you know, the more trillions that you spend, the bigger the win.
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And remember, I think this whole, this phase of the crisis, you're right that it goes back to 2008,
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but I think this phase of the crisis really began in Q1 of 2021, when they passed that $2 trillion
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COVID relief bill for a COVID problem that had winded down, you know, this was the so-called
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American rescue plan. The economy was already hot. It was, it had already recovered. We didn't need
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more stimulus. And that's why Larry Summers said, you know, an economist in their own party was like,
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guys, like you're risking inflation. And they kind of poo-pooed him and said, oh, that's just Larry
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being Larry. He's just sort of like a mischievous troublemaker or something. Well, sure enough,
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four months later, the inflation came. We had that shock 5.1% inflation print, I think it was
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in May of 2021. And what was the reaction? Oh, this is transitory. Don't worry about it. This is
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nothing. This is a blip. And what that allowed them to do was keep spending and keep money printing.
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So the Fed kept QE going for another six months and the administration kept spending trillions and
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trillions more. Remember they wanted even more than they got, three and a half trillion build back
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better. I mean, they just couldn't stop spending. And that's why they needed inflation to be
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transitory so they could keep going with their program. But it wasn't transitory. And so we
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basically had this bubble of 2021, this massive frothy bubble that inflated asset prices, that inflated
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bank deposits. And then finally, at the end of the year in November of 21, the Fed finally turned
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hawkish. By the way, it happened about two weeks after Powell was reconfirmed as Fed chair. He's the
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only Trump official who has kept around for Biden's term. And you have to wonder how much pressure
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he was under during that May to November period to tow the party line on transitory.
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You know, because I think the second that he was reconfirmed, he basically said he turned hawkish. So,
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you know, I think there's like politics all over this thing. So, Glenn, you know, people think the
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Fed is independent. I don't know how independent it really is. It's not. And I think, I don't know who
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leads who on that one. I think I do. But, you know, when you, when you look at inflation,
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David, I mean, I am, I'm not you, but I'm not a dummy either. We have printed more money.
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And the Fed has, I mean, at least what they're telling us is about eight trillion dollars on their
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books. We have printed money like we're going out of style. I'm shocked that inflation is this low.
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How high, what is it going to take to suck the money back in? I don't think you could do it without
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collapsing everything and, and how bad can inflation get with all of the money that we currently have
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spent? Well, Glenn, I think you're right. And I'm not like one of these so-called banking experts
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either, or one of these modern monetary theory experts, but they're the ones. Wait, wait, wait,
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wait, wait, wait. You got to stop. You don't believe in modern money because I mean, that's like a
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fairy tale, a Dr. Seuss modern. Yes, it is. Yeah, good.
00:12:02.220
I'm saying that that's what the experts believe, right? They have all these fancy theories to
00:12:07.480
justify this ridiculous money printing, but you know, it takes a more simple intelligence to
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understand that, Hey, you just can't keep printing all this money. You can't keep going into all this
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debt. At some point you got to pay it back and you either pay back the money by, you know, with sort
00:12:28.040
of paying back with hard assets or you print money to pay it back. And if you print money,
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you can get, you get inflation or even a hyperinflation. So I look, I think you've been
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right about this. And, um, you know, it's just like we saw with COVID all these so-called experts
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don't have a clue. So that's one of the problems I, you know, uh, here in America, they keep saying,
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Oh, it's the Trump voter that is so dangerous and out of the street, whatever. And then you look over
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in Holland, it's happening. You see it in France, you're seeing it in England. This is not about
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parties. In reality, this is about elites and regular people that I really think, and I want
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to bring this back to Silicon Valley. I think regular people are like, I've played by the rules
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my whole life. And it is getting tougher and tougher for me to live up to all of these rules,
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whether they're just the woke rules that could destroy me or all the federal government rules.
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I've paid my taxes. I've worked hard. I've played by the rules. And you guys just seem to get richer
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and richer in the banking community and in politics. And you're destroying my life.
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How, how do we, how are we going to navigate through that?
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Well, I think we need, there's always going to be, I think in any society, some sort of elite
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class, but you want that elite to be based on meritocracy. You want them to know what they're
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doing. You want them to be held accountable if they fail. And I think the problem we have
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in this country is we have all these experts who are never held accountable for doing such a bad job
00:14:04.160
on foreign policy, on the economy, on COVID, on everything. And, you know, and it's, and it's,
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and I think it's because of the media, you know, the media has become their bodyguard,
00:14:15.680
their protector instead of holding them accountable, which was their traditional
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responsibility. I will tell you, I said on the day the bank failed SVB and the president came out
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and said, no, don't worry. Everything's great. I said, how many of these so-called experts are we
00:14:32.160
going to listen to? The experts told us we're going to be fine in Afghanistan. The experts said we could
00:14:38.080
collapse Russia in, you know, in no time. The experts said they could print money and it wouldn't
00:14:45.140
be a problem. And then the experts told us there was no inflation. Everything that has happened in
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the last 15 years with these so-called experts, look at COVID, look at Fauci. And with no one paying
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the price ever, I think the time of experts is coming to a close. And, you know, I said this years
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ago, you don't want the pendulum. We're, we're really good when we're kind of in the middle.
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You don't want it swinging way to the right, way to the left. And when that happens and there's a
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crisis, whichever way it's swinging really far, that side grabs it and says, it's not swinging anymore.
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And we're kind of entering those days where the regular person is going to wake up at some point
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and say, my life is being destroyed and they're going to want some heads. And I'm not, I mean,
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I am so against, you know, all of these, the violence in the streets and everything else.
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I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about how do we navigate? Can we wake anybody up in the elite
00:15:55.060
class to recognize what's happening to people? I think it's scary out there, the anger.
00:16:02.580
You know, I understand the anger and I think it's in many cases justified, but I'm, I'm worried that
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it's, it's getting out of control and it's, it's not, it's going to lead us to a bad outcome. It's
00:16:13.460
certainly not going to lead to good policy, but, but I agree with you. I mean, there's been a profound
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failure of the expert class. It's not just Glenn that they've missed problems. It's that they've
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actually caused the problem. Yes. So you, you know, and then lied about the problem and then lied
00:16:28.420
about it. Exactly. So Fauci's job was to protect us from viruses. What does he do? He funds gain
00:16:33.600
of function research, right? You know, Victoria Newland, what's her job diplomacy? What does she
00:16:38.740
actually do? Fement conflict with Russia, right? You know, the, the, these economists who are supposed
00:16:44.860
to give us sound money, what do they do? They print so much money that we're in the economic
00:16:48.780
crisis that we're in. So it's just like unbelievable that they're literally doing the opposite of what
00:16:55.140
they're supposed to be doing. I mean, just literally the opposite. And, um, it should be easy to replace
00:17:01.940
them because it's so obvious that they're failing, but you can't, or it seems like you can't, because
00:17:06.780
again, we can't get honest media coverage of, of the situation. So it's a, it's a really bad
00:17:13.040
spot for the country to be. And I can see the anger just kind of rising up because I felt it,
00:17:18.000
you know, I was accused of being one of these Silicon Valley elites, um, you know, and kind of,
00:17:23.020
um, you know, even though I've spoken out on all these issues and, um, it's, it's scary just how
00:17:29.320
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pre-born.com slash Glenn. Let's go to Silicon Valley and what is being called a bailout, but it is not
00:19:09.760
the bailout that we saw in 2008. But because of the way the Treasury and FDIC did it, I can't imagine
00:19:19.800
this is going to make anything better because they have bailed this bank out as far as all the
00:19:26.960
depositors, including the people who had $400 million in the bank. And I don't want to see anybody
00:19:33.920
go under, but if you're going to do that, now you're on the hook for everyone. But instead they
00:19:40.900
say, no, it'll just be the critical banks. Well, we'll end up with four banks, David.
00:19:45.340
Right. No, I think that's right. I mean, I think this is a perverse consequence of what happened
00:19:51.420
in 2008 is that I think this is something people just need to understand is that in 2008, I think
00:19:56.560
everyone knows about too big to fail, that these banks were considered too big and that therefore
00:20:00.280
the government had to step in and prevent them from failing. What they may not know is that that
00:20:04.060
status was effectively canonized and enshrined in law. They don't call it too big to fail. They call
00:20:08.900
it systemically important bank or SIP. Right. There's even, so there's four of these in the
00:20:13.580
U S or the trillion dollar club. They've got over a trillion dollars of assets. It's a JP Morgan,
00:20:18.940
Chase, Wells Fargo, um, city. And, um, who am I forgetting? Uh, it's not Goldman. It's, um,
00:20:29.060
Wells, uh, anyway, I'm spacing on the name of the country. Yeah. B of a, sorry. Yeah, that's right.
00:20:33.500
B of a. So these guys are in the trillion dollar club. They're, they're basically too big to fail.
00:20:38.400
And all the other regional banks are not systemically important. And so I think what you
00:20:44.000
start to see last week is that people is that the deposits started flowing massively to the SIPs
00:20:50.940
because people started to wonder whether their money was safe in these regional banks. And, uh,
00:20:56.580
and actually you can see just today, JP Morgan, Chase announced their new, uh, deposit interest rate
00:21:02.380
is 0.01%. So basically they've slashed their interest rate to almost nothing, basically to
00:21:09.620
zero because so many people are worried that their money won't be safe except in these SIPs. So there's
00:21:16.440
huge money flows happening right now to these systemically important banks. So, which people
00:21:22.760
don't understand those, the local and regional 70% of all of our business loans, it all goes
00:21:32.200
through the smaller banks. I mean, you collapse those small regional banks and the small, um,
00:21:38.140
local banks and the economy goes to hell. I mean, it business is done. Yeah, exactly. And I, you know,
00:21:47.320
another thing that people may not know is just roughly half the deposits in the U S banking system
00:21:51.560
are uninsured. You know, this is not, I mean, there, there's always examples you can cherry pick of
00:21:56.500
someone, some company or some wealthy individual being stupid, but this is really about business
00:22:01.760
banking in this country. $250,000 is the FDIC limit just isn't enough for, for most businesses.
00:22:07.980
They have to run payroll or do payables at the end of the month, but it's never been, so that's why,
00:22:13.080
but it's never been a problem because our banks were stable. Now that the banks aren't stable now
00:22:19.500
as a businessman, you're like, I can't put that money in the bank like that.
00:22:22.660
Right. Exactly. And there's a fundamental mismatch in, I mean, this is where I think the banking
00:22:28.540
system is so crazy is that what the consumer and I'm including small businesses in that think
00:22:34.300
they're getting is so different than what the bank thinks it's getting. So when a consumer or small
00:22:40.800
business goes to a bank and puts their money there, they think they're just getting a checking account.
00:22:45.720
They think they're getting the ability to write checks, to do payables, to do run payroll,
00:22:50.820
get an ATM card. And, and, and it's a safe place to keep their money. What the bank thinks it's
00:22:55.820
getting is a loan. Right. Right. On their balance sheet, it's treated like a loan and then they can
00:23:01.760
take that loan and invest it and they get to keep the upside on that money. I mean, so that's just like
00:23:09.020
a fundamental mismatch and it's, and this is what leads to problems is that when those banks
00:23:14.060
invest in things that are too risky because they get to keep the upside, then all of a sudden the
00:23:19.320
depositor gets a loss and then the depositor is like, wait a second, I thought my money was safe
00:23:24.040
in the bank. And this is where I actually think that we do need like regulations. Can I, can I ask
00:23:30.700
you to solve that? I, I mean, again, I know nothing about the banking system. Just looking at it as
00:23:38.040
somebody who hasn't, you know, gone through business school and, you know, and had the
00:23:43.800
indoctrination of we're fine. The system is great and it'll never break. Why don't we just make sure
00:23:50.860
that banks can't go out and, uh, and invest in, uh, you know, stocks and, and the, and, and play the
00:24:01.220
games that they're playing. Why, why can't we have those investments in a separate investment bank
00:24:08.040
and then a bank bank? Why can't we separate those two? I know that that would make sense to me is,
00:24:14.860
um, is that when you, that you should just be able to go get an account. That's your, as a consumer
00:24:21.120
small business, that's just kind of your payments account. And you, you want the functionality in
00:24:25.240
other words, right? And, and look, you'll, you'll take a little bit of interest on that, but your,
00:24:28.680
your objective is not interest maximizing. It's just getting the functionality. Um, you should
00:24:34.680
be able to get that, you know? Um, but it's just, we have a weird system. I mean, this is kind of the
00:24:39.860
way the banking system works. I think that what you have to do is I think ultimately the quid pro quo
00:24:45.660
here is going to be that we create some sort of like business plus FDIC, meaning some much higher
00:24:53.320
level of FDIC that makes it acceptable for businesses to use banks. And then the quid pro
00:25:01.740
quote for that is the banks just can't do anything risky with that money or you're going to have to
00:25:05.820
be much more tightly constrained. So now I don't know all the details of how that's going to get
00:25:10.200
worked out, but I think that's kind of where we're, we're headed on this thing.
00:25:13.980
So, um, SB, SVB didn't do anything risky. I mean, they, they put it in treasuries,
00:25:20.700
but they were 10 year treasuries. How does this bank that got an A plus rating from everybody
00:25:28.580
and had a member of the fed on their board make that kind of mistake?
00:25:36.840
I mean, the only thing I can think of is that they thought inflation would be transitory,
00:25:45.860
that they actually believed Biden, Yellen and Powell. I think that was a really stupid mistake,
00:25:50.440
but that, that was the, yeah, they were the one idiots who believed that other than, or they were
00:25:55.060
just completely asleep at the wheel. Clearly they did a horrible job with risk management,
00:25:58.500
but just so everyone understands like what happened there. So they bought, so in the two years,
00:26:04.420
the last couple of years during COVID, when there was all this money printing, their deposits swelled,
00:26:09.740
it's something like tripled from, from something like 60 billion to 180 billion. And then they put
00:26:16.260
something like 80 billion in these, um, in, in 10 year mortgage bonds, which are supposed to be safe.
00:26:23.360
You know, they were playing like 1.6%. They thought they were doing something safe. And the fed at that
00:26:29.580
time was, you know, they do these dot plot projections and the fed was saying that,
00:26:34.300
yeah, we don't plan on raising interest rates anytime soon. So now that's no excuse. I mean,
00:26:39.700
they should have been like more aware of what was going on and they should have hedged the interest
00:26:44.700
rate risks when the environment started to turn. But basically what happened is that they committed
00:26:51.060
themselves to these 10 year mortgage bonds, whose value went way down as interest rates spiked. And then
00:26:58.220
the other thing that precipitated is they just have a more volatile depositor base, right? Catering to
00:27:04.340
startups. So, you know, they're, they're on pressure on both sides of their balance sheet and they just
00:27:09.440
mismanaged the whole thing, but sort of the feds. I mean, you know, the feds knew there was a problem
00:27:13.680
here going back to the end of 2022, you know, the Monday, like literally three days before, um,
00:27:21.740
three or four days for SVB got put in receivership, the head of the FDIC testified that banks were
00:27:28.520
sitting on $620 billion of unrealized losses from these types of long dated bonds, right? As of the
00:27:35.500
end of 2022. So they've had that information for months now. Well, what have they been doing about
00:27:41.160
it? I mean, they should have been proactively going to these banks and try to work out these
00:27:45.060
situations before, you know, they're, they're, they're, they're put in receivership. And historically,
00:27:51.080
that's what they've done by the way is, you know, when a bank gets in trouble, they'll close it down
00:27:56.000
over a weekend and they'll put it in the hands of some other bank and it opens under a new brand name
00:28:01.700
on Monday and it tells everyone their deposits are safe. But for some reason they just didn't step in
00:28:06.660
here. Um, so I think, you know, there was a lot of sleeping at the wheel, but look, I don't want to
00:28:11.840
take, um, blame away from SVB's management because they clearly did a really bad job too. I mean,
00:28:17.760
they spooked everybody on, it was on Wednesday after the market closed. This is the, you know,
00:28:23.640
the two days before it went into official receivership, they put out a, um, an 8k statement
00:28:29.560
basically saying that like, oopsie daisy, we, uh, we had to sell all of our available for sale
00:28:37.720
securities over 20 billion of securities. We just had to liquidate them. Okay. And we're going to need
00:28:45.020
to raise billions of dollars of equity. And we're going to have to recognize a huge loss on our
00:28:51.260
long dated bonds that was previously unrealized on our balance sheet. Well, what do you think
00:28:56.080
happened right that night after the market closed? Her stock was down 30% and the articles were all
00:29:03.100
over the press by Thursday morning. The bank was in distress. So people have all these wild conspiracy
00:29:08.460
theories about why there was, you know, a run on the bank. People just read the news. The media caused
00:29:13.360
the rock. Well, I mean, I can't blame the media because they were just doing their jobs reporting
00:29:17.660
what SVB had put out there. So let me ask you, cause, um, you might remember when the fed had the
00:29:25.160
discount window, the discount window was kind of a shameful place to go. You as a bank didn't want
00:29:30.940
to go to the discount window because the other banks would know you're in trouble. Is that right?
00:29:36.360
I mean, you had kind of a internal warning system before that seemed to always work for a long time.
00:29:44.880
And now there's just, there's this, you know, billions and billions of dollars being given to
00:29:51.580
banks all the time for extended periods of time. That's new. Yeah. I mean, the thing we don't know,
00:30:00.200
Glenn, I think is what were the conversations taking place behind the scenes, uh, between SVB's
00:30:05.900
management and, and the feds, uh, you know, when did they, I mean, they must have, I would assume
00:30:11.520
go to the fed, go to the FDIC, go to the banking regulators and tell them, Hey, we have a problem
00:30:18.580
here. I'm, I don't know. I'm curious when that happened and I'm curious what the reaction
00:30:22.880
of those regulators was. Um, I don't think we have that information yet.
00:30:28.300
So credit suisse goes down and I called a friend of mine and I said, and Deutsche Bank stands?
00:30:35.900
I mean, isn't Deutsche Bank always in trouble or do we, do we have other banks that size that are
00:30:48.140
Well, you know, what I would say is the, the, the reliable way to figure out which banks are
00:30:55.480
having problems is you just follow the stock market. So even before the media seems to report
00:31:01.820
on problems at a bank, uh, the short sellers seem to, you know, get ahold of it and you see the
00:31:07.680
stock prices going down. Like I said, soon as SVB put out that 8k, their stock was down 30%. And I
00:31:14.240
think by noon, the next day it was down 60%. So just follow the stock market is kind of like telling you
00:31:19.900
where to look, um, because those guys are really doing their homework. So look, I don't know. I don't
00:31:25.500
want to say any particular bank is in trouble. And here, here's the other thing is just when you're
00:31:31.340
talking about systemically important banks, the government's already said, it's not going to let
00:31:35.020
them fail. Right. So it's, it's kind of more like how much trouble is the system in? Yeah. How much
00:31:42.220
trouble is the government in? So, because if these banks have, have, have problems, it's not going to
00:31:47.860
be on those banks at the end of the day. It's going to be on, on the taxpayer.
00:31:50.180
So can I just take you to a dark place here for just a second war game, something for me? Um,
00:31:55.780
sure. You know, we are, we could have a, a serious banking collapse, which would lead to
00:32:01.980
financial collapse all over the world. Um, in the Western world, at least, um, we have war
00:32:07.900
on the horizon. None of these things have to happen, but, but if they do, then the federal
00:32:16.220
government comes in, bails, these banks and depositors out with money they don't have. So
00:32:21.900
they're just printing the money. Um, if it has that kind of collapse, businesses go down, you lose
00:32:29.760
jobs, then the supply chain would also, you know, you can't keep people working. So the supply chain
00:32:35.780
goes down, which drives interest rates through the roof. And with this much money pouring everywhere,
00:32:42.280
um, you got a real problem. The, it seems to me that the, uh, central bank digital currency or digital
00:32:56.020
coin is the end game here in a reset. Does that make sense to you at all? If we would hit this kind
00:33:04.660
of a problem? Well, it's hard to say. I mean, I, um, here's what I'd say, Glenn is that you've been
00:33:13.780
ahead of the curve on so many things. The first time I ever heard the word ESG was from you.
00:33:18.920
Oh my God. I didn't know. Yeah. I didn't know what that was until I learned from you. So you've
00:33:23.960
been ahead of the curve in a lot of these things. And, um, I hope it doesn't go that way, obviously.
00:33:28.700
Um, you know, I, right now it, it looks to me like the government sees crypto as a threat
00:33:35.600
because it's kind of like an alternative, uh, right. But the, it's kind of like an all the,
00:33:40.760
the UCC is being updated in, you know, all 50 States now. And it defines money as a, uh, central bank
00:33:50.340
digital currency. Um, and that's a, a little terrifying because the central bank would have
00:33:59.280
complete control over your money. It's not like Bitcoin, which I can put on a thumb drive and take
00:34:05.540
out and go screw you. Um, it's, I don't, I don't have my money. It's, it's legally would be defined as
00:34:13.340
their money if it's in the bank. Um, and, uh, uh, that, that's the problem. That's the other half
00:34:21.260
of the modern monetary theory that nobody wants to talk about control. Yeah. I mean, yeah. And so
00:34:27.160
I think they're doing this in China with, they've got the digital you on. And, um, so I think that,
00:34:33.820
look, this is definitely one potential dystopian future. Um, you know, it's, um, it's, it's hard for
00:34:40.880
me to assess, uh, where, where, where this all leads. Um, I, I, you know, I'm, I'm just kind of
00:34:47.120
more in the immediate term. I'm just more concerned about this leading to, you know, a recession.
00:34:53.720
Uh, that's usually the result when you have a massive contraction of the money supply and of
00:34:59.540
credit, usually the result is, is a recession. I mean, when I talked to my friends in the real
00:35:04.500
estate industry, I mean, the things they're telling me are, are just scary because, you know,
00:35:09.960
I've got, well, so I got a friend who just redeveloped a building and he's got a A plus
00:35:17.200
tenant and he can't get his construction loan refinanced with long-term debt. He just can't
00:35:23.380
do it. He's willing to pay the prevailing interest rates. He can't find a bank that's willing to
00:35:27.640
loan right now. Um, I mean that, that's scary, right? And the reason, and the reason why is just
00:35:34.520
because if you're a bank and you're seeing all this instability and you're worried about
00:35:39.580
deposits flowing out for any reason, you're just like, we got to hold onto our cash here.
00:35:45.040
We can't be putting it in a 10 year, you know, loan. And so like, that's just one example. I think
00:35:51.460
there's also the issue, you know, cause I'm, I'm here in San Francisco, we got over 30% vacancy
00:35:57.260
in these office towers and these office towers everywhere. Yeah, exactly. And so, and those
00:36:04.960
office towers, you know, are ultimately owned by the bank. I mean, yeah, the real estate developer
00:36:09.580
owns maybe a third of the capital stack in equity, but the bank up two thirds of the money. Well,
00:36:15.700
how's that going to work there? You have all this, all these loans that were supposed to be
00:36:20.820
a plus loans because these office buildings were supposed to be the best form of collateral there was.
00:36:25.780
And now you have to wonder how impaired those loans are. And, and so we haven't even gotten to the
00:36:31.780
loan portfolio of, of these banks, right? All we are looking at are the losses on the liquid
00:36:38.120
securities part of the portfolio, the safe part, the T bills and the mortgage bond. What happens when
00:36:44.120
you get to the, to the loan portfolio? Now, look, I don't think all banks are in the same boat,
00:36:49.460
but, um, but I, I do kind of, I do kind of worry that this whole commercial real estate thing
00:36:54.340
is going to be the next shoe to drop here. And, um, this is, it's, it's just kind of scary. Um,
00:37:01.960
I mean, obviously I hope they get a handle on it. Um, and I, I do think that the fed now is in a,
00:37:07.840
in a terrible spot because on the one hand, my view is you got to protect depositors. I just don't
00:37:14.160
think they thought when they put their money in the bank, they were making a risky investment
00:37:19.060
decision. I just think, I think if you tell depositors, sorry, you got to take it on the
00:37:24.260
chin because the fed didn't do its job. The fine printed too much money. You'll have chaos in this
00:37:30.620
country. On the other hand, and nobody, you said it earlier, nobody looks at putting my money in the
00:37:36.000
bank as an investment. I'm not putting it into it. You're holding it for me. Totally. Totally.
00:37:42.880
But on the other hand, if you do protect the depositors, we don't know how big a tab that's
00:37:46.620
going to be. Correct. Um, and how much money we're going to have to print to do that. So this
00:37:51.040
is the terrible, they're, they're on the horns of this, this terrible dilemma, but I'll tell you,
00:37:55.140
I don't, I don't, I don't fully like the way that Republicans are, are handling this issue. Um,
00:38:01.180
because I think the right position here politically, morally, regulatorily is to say that no bailouts
00:38:10.280
for banks. If bank management does a bad job, they're wiped out. Their stock options are
00:38:16.420
worthless. They might, we might even claw back these big bonuses they took. Uh, the stockholders
00:38:21.860
are wiped out. The bondholders are wiped out. They're all done. However, you got to protect
00:38:26.460
depositors. I just don't know how you don't protect depositors. And I'm hearing this like
00:38:30.760
Darwinian view, um, from the side that I'm usually aligned with that, well, depositors should have
00:38:38.300
known better. Like, you know, they were just stupid. Well, you know, or I had money in Silicon
00:38:43.880
Valley bank. I mean, it's a safe bait, a bank to do business with. So, I mean, you know, I guess
00:38:50.580
I should have known better. Well, I didn't, it's a safe bank. How are you going to know better when
00:38:56.040
Moody's didn't know better? Exactly. Right. How are you going to know better when the fed didn't know
00:38:59.900
better? I mean, I, I, I would separate the average person in, and me, even you from the fed
00:39:08.500
and Moody's that's their job. Okay. They should have known that's their job, but I shouldn't have
00:39:16.540
known unless they said, I'm not, I'm not watching the bank and, and, and have access to all of the
00:39:23.140
information that they have. Totally. I mean, what your average consumer or small business is supposed
00:39:29.620
to evaluate the balance sheet of a bank and try to figure out whether they got toxic assets or not
00:39:34.960
when they open a checking account so they can make payroll. I mean, it's not realistic, by the
00:39:39.480
way, that's the system we had a hundred years ago. It led to panics all the time. That's why they
00:39:44.220
created FDIC. We've, we've, we've seen this movie before, like Jimmy Stewart's in it. Um, it's, it's,
00:39:50.840
it's not a movie we want to go back to. The problem is that FDIC is not big enough for business
00:39:55.880
banking. And like I said, half the deposits in the banks are not insured because businesses need more.
00:40:03.380
So I think where we're going to end up here is that there needs to be a business plus level of FDIC
00:40:10.760
in exchange for which these banks just can't take risky investments because we don't want the
00:40:16.880
government to be on the hook if they screw up. Right. I want to talk to you about the hundreds
00:40:22.160
and hundreds of people that I have personally met that say, I couldn't take my pain anymore.
00:40:27.440
Uh, one of, one of our listeners, um, was, I believe on fentanyl, uh, her pain was so bad and
00:40:37.060
her husband cried and talked to me and said, she was just slipping away. She was, I didn't really
00:40:43.640
even recognize her anymore. She started taking relief factor and she was up walking around.
00:40:50.740
She was in my office. It's amazing. Now it doesn't happen for everybody. 70% of the people
00:40:56.700
who take relief factor, find relief and they go on ordering a month after month. So I want you to
00:41:02.820
call relief factor now and see if you're one of that 70% where you'll find relief 800 for relief,
00:41:09.180
800 for relief, get the 1995 three week quick start. That's relieffactor.com.
00:41:15.960
So, you know, there's the part of the problem that I see, uh, I, I think I said this in 2010 or 12
00:41:27.080
because I'm, I'm a amateur futurist. I love, uh, you know, the future of what's coming with AI and
00:41:34.840
everything else. It's terrifying and thrilling at the same time. And it'll be up to us to see which
00:41:41.320
way it goes. I think it might be up to AI, but, um, you know, the, the, the problem here is that we
00:41:48.440
have the entire industrial revolution took over a hundred years. This revolution that we're going
00:41:57.400
into now, this, everything from our governments to our banking, to our individual jobs, all of it
00:42:07.100
is changing because of the internet and technology. It's all changing and it's changing now in about a
00:42:17.720
10 year period in 10 years from two, from 2020 to 2030, you will not be the same country. And it's not
00:42:26.380
because of political decisions or anything else. It's because of technology. And I think we're just
00:42:32.240
going through the industrial revolution 10 times faster. Yeah, I think, I think you're right. And
00:42:40.660
that's another dilemma here because on the one hand, the, the change is incredibly disruptive and
00:42:47.800
scary. On the other hand, the only way we're going to get out of this debt or have a hope of getting out
00:42:54.420
of this debt without money printing or a hyperinflation is productivity. That's the only other alternative
00:43:00.600
to money printing is productivity. Well, you, so you're training the people in America to not be
00:43:06.020
productive. I mean, that's what the government's. Well, it's the hope would be with these AI tools
00:43:13.020
is that you can power up your, you know, your average employee through the use of these tools to
00:43:19.600
be much more productive. Right. And that it could unleash an economic boom. I also understand the argument
00:43:25.500
that maybe it puts people out of work. So, but you know, we're seeing, I mean, this is really year
00:43:31.420
one of this sort of commercial, let's call it the commercialization of AI and the, the demo,
00:43:38.000
the product demos that I'm seeing are really incredible what it can do. I mean, you can go
00:43:42.980
into these tools. Let's say you're a marketer and you just want to write a blog post, you know,
00:43:48.200
for your company, you just go in there and type in the headline in the first paragraph and it'll spit
00:43:52.500
out the rest for you as a first draft easy. And actually you can say, give me five alternatives
00:43:56.900
and then you pick the one you like best. And then you can just say, give me five more like this and
00:44:00.820
you do human evolution on it. So in any event, there's like a, or like coders right now, there's
00:44:06.140
this, um, this called a co-pilot where if you're a coder, you just described, you just talk to the AI
00:44:13.840
because it understands natural language. Say here, here's what I'm trying to do. Give me the code
00:44:17.160
and code that would have taken weeks to write. You'll just spit out in a minute and you can kind
00:44:24.640
of go from there. Now I think again, the optimistic scenario here is this doesn't put coders out of
00:44:29.500
business. It makes them much more productive. And so if we can get a productivity boom out of this
00:44:37.040
technology, that could be the way out of our current mess. The problem is though, again, in other
00:44:44.620
revolutions that we've had, you've had time to adapt. This is just going to make some people
00:44:51.120
more productive and also destroy, uh, other jobs and you have to retrain and rebalance and it's going
00:44:58.400
to happen so incredibly fast. Here's the, here's been my biggest problem. And I talked to Ray Kurzweil
00:45:05.160
about it. I I've, I've, I've talked to, um, uh, several people that are, um, into AI. No one is seemingly
00:45:14.400
seriously asking the philosophical questions that we have to decide right now. What is life?
00:45:24.820
It, you already, you could convince people with chat GPT today. You could get people to go,
00:45:33.040
you know what? It's alive. Well, then what happens if that's actually life? So we have to decide some
00:45:41.060
of these things. We have to decide it when we can download a person's thinking is that life? Or if
00:45:50.920
they've got cancer or something that's really expensive, can we just off them? Because they'll
00:45:56.080
always be here. There is no death because we've downloaded them. We're not, we're not asking, uh,
00:46:03.000
the questions on work. Does it, does, does that mean anything to the psyche of man? And you've got,
00:46:13.360
um, Yuval Arari who is, and the W E F talking about a lot of useless people and what are we going to do
00:46:22.680
with them? And his answer seems to be drug and entertain. That's not good. No, that's not good.
00:46:32.120
That's not good. I, uh, that's not good. Um, yeah, I mean, now I'll tell you one thing that's
00:46:38.740
interesting about whose jobs are getting disrupted is that it's actually the, the white collar jobs is
00:46:45.300
the knowledge worker jobs. You know, they just did a test, uh, on the new, um, uh, GPT and it can
00:46:52.160
pass the bar exam. I know. I mean, it does better than most lawyers. And the GPT three pass the bar
00:46:58.480
exam. GPT four is 90% better. 90% better. Yeah, exactly. So it's interesting because it,
00:47:10.060
because one of the things that's interesting is that the people who got disrupted and took it on the
00:47:14.660
chin the hardest over the last 10 or 20 years because of tech, let's call it more of the blue
00:47:20.320
collar or robotics. Exactly. Automation, the people who are impacted most by automation or by
00:47:28.580
the exporting of jobs to China, which I think in hindsight was a huge mistake. Um, but now it's
00:47:36.040
different. It's actually knowledge workers and coastal elites who are being disrupted. Um, so
00:47:41.460
yeah, it's interesting, but, but I, I, I still think it's going to be hard to know exactly how
00:47:47.560
it plays out. And, um, you know, it's, it's hard to stop these technology waves. Um, you can't,
00:47:54.740
the question is just whether you can guide them in a positive direction. And like you said, I don't
00:47:58.560
think anyone or not many people are asking, you know, the hard questions, although, you know, Elon,
00:48:03.800
Elon did, you know, the whole, the whole way that open AI got founded was back in 2016.
00:48:09.160
Elon said that like, Hey guys, I think AI is going to take over the world. This is like way further
00:48:15.180
ahead than people think. And so they created open AI to, to ethically guide the development of AI.
00:48:21.120
That was the purpose. And to put it in the hands of everybody. So no, no country or company would
00:48:27.220
have it. Well, that's over. I know. And, and it started as a nonprofit and somewhere along the way
00:48:33.340
it became right for profit. It became more like a company. So about the time he left.
00:48:40.280
So it's, it's, uh, it's, yeah, you can't make this stuff up. I mean, it's just a testament to
00:48:44.980
human nature, you know, is that if there's an opportunity, people are going to want to
00:48:50.120
exploit it. You can say either exploit it or develop it positively or negatively,
00:48:57.720
Talk to me a little bit about Elon Musk. He's a friend of yours, right?
00:49:00.860
Yeah. I mean, um, I think what he's done at Twitter with the Twitter files is incredible.
00:49:08.300
I think what he's done with, with pretty much everything. Yeah. I mean, he is, I would put
00:49:15.460
him in the category of, uh, of a Jefferson or a Franklin. I mean, that's what all of those
00:49:21.920
guys were like. He is just in a different category. What, what is, what is he like as a
00:49:28.140
person to be around? Is he, is he always way ahead or is, I mean, what's he like?
00:49:36.500
Um, well, I, you know, I've known him for, I guess, over 20 years now. And so to me, he's just,
00:49:42.940
you know, before he got super famous. So to me, it's just, you know, my friend Elon, you know,
00:49:46.740
um, I would say that, you know, what you see is really what you get with him. I mean, I remember
00:49:51.960
a conversation I had with him many years ago where I think we're just sitting on the couch and he's
00:49:56.880
sort of ruminating about, you know, you know, I wonder if we're living in a simulation, you know,
00:50:02.340
is this really based reality and to start riffing on this idea and things that really used to only
00:50:08.020
be asked by people on either pot or LSD. He just thinks that way. Yeah. He's just thinking about it.
00:50:15.560
And I remember thinking, well, this is really interesting, but I'm, I'm glad that the public
00:50:20.160
doesn't think that Elon thinks we're living in a simulation because, you know, they'll think he's
00:50:25.740
crazy. And, you know, and, but then, you know, a few months later, I hear him like basically talking
00:50:30.620
about it in an interview. And so like, he's, you know, what I'm saying is that what you're seeing
00:50:37.000
from him in public interviews is what he's saying in private too. Maybe just a little bit before we
00:50:43.960
just hear it first, but, um, what you see is what you get. You know, I have a daughter of special
00:50:49.420
needs. She had strokes at birth and I have been, um, uh, following, uh, what he is, the research
00:50:56.640
he's doing on the brain because that would repair all of the pathways. Um, I try to remember the
00:51:05.620
technology that is, um, um, anyways, basically putting beacons in, into your head and it can,
00:51:14.880
it could repair all the pathways. So she could think faster, um, and, and think the way, you know,
00:51:24.400
um, a healthy brain would think, uh, and it would change her life. And we've had conversations about
00:51:32.500
it and I'm, I'm as her dad, I'd love to see that. Um, she is not, uh, willing to, uh, to go there. Um,
00:51:44.220
and, and it's for as great as it is, it's a two way street. Eventually you'll not only be able to
00:51:54.000
help, but you'll be able to see into the brain. You'd be able to connect with the internet, which
00:52:00.200
is one of the things that I know that Elon wants to do. And that's a whole different,
00:52:06.220
now you're into transhumanism. Yeah. I mean, it was, we're getting into sci-fi type stuff,
00:52:12.520
but I think the reason why he found it in your link is because he saw that the AI was going to
00:52:18.220
evolve very quickly to be smarter than human intelligence. And the only way for humans to
00:52:23.460
catch up would be to have some sort of, um, you know, brain computer interface. And now, I mean,
00:52:31.500
that's the longterm vision and the short term, it's about fixing, um, the, these types of maladies,
00:52:37.160
you know, that people have serious, you know, um, issues. And so, you know, he's starting with
00:52:44.100
those, you could call them use cases in a way. And, you know, this is, I think a common denominator
00:52:48.800
of all of his companies is he starts with a really grand vision, but then makes it, he figures out the
00:52:53.900
tangible first step. So you take SpaceX, for example, the vision was to go colonize Mars,
00:52:58.980
but the first step was just to like get a rocket to launch into space. And then the middle step is
00:53:05.580
to get a satellite network working. So we have, you know, internet from space and then finally you
00:53:10.720
can do space exploration. So he figures out like he's got this grand vision, but then he figures
00:53:15.460
out how to break it down into stepping stones. Um, but you're right that, you know, you mentioned
00:53:22.320
like a Franklin or Jefferson. I mean, he's kind of a throwback to an earlier time where you had these
00:53:27.580
great individuals, inventors who, you know, would create these great things. And
00:53:35.560
um, and build these enormous enterprises, these great companies. And, you know, it's so different
00:53:41.920
than what we have today where it feels like everything is decision by committees and, you
00:53:47.220
know, and everybody's a professional manager who went to go get their Harvard MBA. And what did they
00:53:53.360
build? I mean, they didn't really build, they didn't really take risks. They just manage. Um, and you
00:53:58.880
know, they're all sort of politically connected. And part of this class that, you know, is connected
00:54:04.000
in Washington and goes to Davos and, you know, it's like part of this click with the media
00:54:09.680
that protects them. It's just, you know, again, it's part of that like fake expert class.
00:54:15.000
And it's, it's, I think this is the reason why they hate him. You know, I think that's the
00:54:19.140
reason why they hate him is because it's just, um, it represents a whole different model. It's
00:54:25.100
really the entrepreneurial capitalism that this country started.
00:54:29.280
Yes. It's the American model of one guy having an idea, you know, we are living, I don't know,
00:54:36.520
last time if ever, I mean, it's, I live in such a geeky world, uh, David, but, um, I don't
00:54:42.780
know the last time that you read, uh, Dwight Eisenhower's farewell speech from the Oval Office,
00:54:48.520
but he nailed this time period right now. And he talked about those inventors that are working
00:54:56.280
by themselves in their garage and coming up with ideas. Those are gone and they're going to be
00:55:01.280
replaced by teams of people working on things through corporations. And he warned us, uh,
00:55:08.320
against it and we didn't pay attention on very many things. Um, let me, and that, that speech,
00:55:15.700
I mean, it, it warned us about the military industrial complex and, uh, and I mean, Eisenhower,
00:55:20.840
he, he knew of which he spoke. I mean, he was the Supreme ally commander in World War II president
00:55:25.840
of the United States. He knew, he warned us that yes, we need a defense industry, but they would
00:55:30.960
become a special interest. And we have so many of these industrial complexes, whether it's the media,
00:55:37.600
the pharma industrial complex, the education industrial complex, where they've started just
00:55:43.460
becoming more of a special interest in their own right, as opposed to fulfilling the mission
00:55:48.880
that they were supposed, that they were created to do. They're serving, uh, money and, uh, the
00:55:55.080
government, it seems more and more. Um, and, uh, and less the it's, you know, the one thing about
00:56:03.540
Musk is it is a pure intent. You know, he wants to go to Mars. That's his end. It's not about becoming
00:56:11.380
the richest man in the world. And there's a, there's a difference, um, uh, on that. You know,
00:56:17.520
you work hard for the money. My gosh, have I turned into Donna summer? You work hard for
00:56:23.420
the money girl. If you're like me, when you have to spend that money, you prefer to spend
00:56:28.060
it on things that are of quality, especially if they're made here in America. That's not
00:56:33.980
just patriotism. It's a quality thing. And traditionally things that are made in America last longer,
00:56:40.600
work better and set the standard for the rest of the world. That's one of the reasons why I
00:56:45.820
love partnering with companies like grip six with grip six, you're getting the true American
00:56:50.720
experience products you can count on. For instance, you buy their socks. You're supporting American
00:56:57.560
ranchers who raise a specialty bred sheep that will produce the modern wool. Then you have the
00:57:04.700
American manufacturers who wash and process that wool. And then the other people who are weaving it
00:57:10.060
into socks that will keep your feet warm in the winter and cool in the summer. They're fantastic.
00:57:14.940
The American business owners who have accepted the risk that comes along with only using American
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made products and American labor. Check out grip six today. I love them. I think you will too. Put
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your hard earned money in your trust in a company that does it right in America. Grip six.com slash
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back. That's grip six.com slash back. Let me quickly just cover a couple of things.
00:57:42.440
Um, I, I absolutely believe we blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. Uh, I don't know if we'll ever,
00:57:51.880
uh, prove that. Um, but I, I'm sorry, you know, the president who, you know, one of the signs of,
00:57:58.600
you know, dementia is saying things that you shouldn't say. Uh, and he comes out and says,
00:58:04.560
yeah, we can get rid of that. We don't believe me. We'll, we'll, we'll, we'll end it. Okay. Um,
00:58:12.840
do you think we're ever going to find out the truth on that?
00:58:19.800
Um, yeah, actually I, I do. I mean, I think eventually that's got to come out.
00:58:24.720
Now, eventually do you mean it? Like we just found, we just found out that the CIA was working with
00:58:30.680
Oswald and on his payroll, on their payroll. Yeah. I mean, maybe you're right that we'll never
00:58:35.980
know for, for maybe we'll never have that confirmation, but, but look, I, I agree with
00:58:40.420
you that Cy Hirsch's story is far more credible than, than the cover story they planted in the
00:58:46.260
New York times just recently, which was laughable. No, no, no. They know the boat. They just don't
00:58:51.040
know who was on it, but they know it was four men and one woman, but they have no idea. I mean,
00:58:56.540
it was ridiculous. It was ridiculous. They say like, okay, that arc that we believe that a pro
00:59:03.120
Ukrainian group did this. Okay. Well, well, which one we don't know. Uh, but well, did it include
00:59:11.140
Zelensky? Absolutely not. So it's like, it's like a weird, weird level of certainty about certain things.
00:59:19.560
And then like, they don't know any, you know what I mean? It's like, look, you either know who these
00:59:23.820
guys were or you don't. So how can you be so sure that it wasn't our specific allies, but,
00:59:29.240
but by the way, I mean, this was a very sophisticated operation that required a state actor to do.
00:59:34.040
Yeah. Um, and like you said, they said what they're going to do. So, um, I'm, I'm, I'm with
00:59:41.000
you on this one. I mean, it's the same kind of thing they're doing here. They're, they're, um,
00:59:45.460
decommissioning all of our coal fire plants and blocking the way for us to go back. Uh, that's pretty
00:59:51.760
much what happened with the Nord Stream pipeline, right? Just blocked your way to ever go back to
00:59:57.300
that source. Um, David, uh, last thing war with China and, or, uh, Russia, they look like they are
01:00:12.440
becoming closer and closer allies, um, and allies with Iran and now Saudi Arabia abandoned us because of,
01:00:21.300
for good reason. I would too, if I were them, um, how likely do you think it is that we'd be headed
01:00:29.280
towards war? And what does that mean? I mean, I've been warning about this since the Ukraine
01:00:37.720
situation started. Um, this is a proxy war of choice that we've gotten into. Uh, Ukraine is not
01:00:45.720
a member of NATO. It is not a treaty ally of the United States. Uh, we are not required to defend
01:00:52.660
it. Um, moreover, and I think this is the deeper point is we engaged in a series of actions going
01:00:59.340
back to 2008 that the Russians viewed as highly provocative. And they warned us over and over
01:01:05.980
again, is categorically unacceptable for you to try to bring Ukraine into NATO. And yet we persisted
01:01:12.040
in that mission. We have these crusaders at the state department who just want to keep expanding
01:01:17.380
NATO. And, you know, I don't know why they can't see that that is unacceptable to the Russians the same
01:01:24.680
way that the Soviet union trying to put nukes in Cuba was unacceptable to us in 1962. I mean, we have
01:01:31.860
the Monroe doctrine here that says that no distant great power can put troops and weapons in the Western
01:01:38.820
hemisphere. We consider that an intolerable security threat. And that is what we have been trying to do
01:01:45.320
with Ukraine for a long time. This was very easily avoidable in my view. And now we're at the point we
01:01:51.360
are effectively a co belligerent in this conflict. I mean, we're not just providing them with money
01:01:56.680
and weapons. We're providing them with intelligence. We have commandos on the ground, um, directing the flow
01:02:03.740
of those weapons and of intelligence that we've had administration officials brag about painting the
01:02:09.980
targets on Russian generals. Crazy. So they could be killed bragging about providing the intel to sink
01:02:16.280
the master, which is the Russian flagship. Um, can you imagine if Brezhnev did that when we were in
01:02:21.680
Vietnam, if Brezhnev went to Vietnam and said, our, our whole goal here is regime change. We're funding
01:02:29.820
you. We're painting the, we're paying the targets for you. My gosh, it's, it's crazy.
01:02:36.460
It's crazy. And, um, you know, like people sometimes compare, well, why isn't this like
01:02:40.500
Afghanistan where, you know, we bled the soap, like Reagan bled the Soviet union. Yeah. That was
01:02:44.540
a covert operation operation cyclone. We didn't have American flags on the boxes of the stingers and the
01:02:52.000
weapons we were giving them. It was a, it was a very, and here it's very different because we're not
01:02:57.540
just giving them weapons. We're providing the whole, what's called the kill chain for them.
01:03:02.440
You know, it's, it's a, it's a tightly woven web of information services. The weapons by themselves
01:03:07.740
aren't valuable. You know, like the high Mars, for example, isn't valuable unless you also give them
01:03:12.800
the targeting coordinates from our satellites in space. And so, you know, the Ukrainians are pushing
01:03:18.760
the buttons and pulling the triggers and taking the bullets, but it's the Americans who are providing
01:03:24.440
the targets and the intelligence and even taking credit for that counter-offensive last fall.
01:03:30.900
There's a New York time story where they basically described the, it was called the critical moment
01:03:35.840
behind the, it was the Kharkiv counter-offensive where the Ukrainians came to the American generals
01:03:43.020
with their plans and the general said, no, this isn't good enough. Let us like fix it for you.
01:03:46.780
I mean, it's, it's just crazy, you know, and then we, we, and then when I think the obvious
01:03:54.040
downstream effects of this happen, which is that it drives Russia into China's arms,
01:04:02.360
we react with this outrage and surprise. It's like shock. Like we didn't know what's going to happen.
01:04:08.440
It's like, are you kidding? Of course, of course, Russia and China become tighter and tighter allies
01:04:14.540
because China, they see what's happening and they know that if Russia falls here, if that actually
01:04:21.760
could happen, then the gun sites of us neocons and us hawks will be entirely trained on them.
01:04:28.160
So it's in their national interest to help Russia. This was entirely predictable. And we think we're
01:04:33.880
going to prevent them from pursuing their national interest by expressing condemnation and outrage.
01:04:39.760
I mean, like, it's like, it's like, it's like our, it's like our spokespeople and diplomats are
01:04:45.260
children here. I mean, again, dealing with it's the elites and everyone with common sense
01:04:51.800
are looking at each other. Look, I didn't vote for the guy. You did vote for the guy, but I I'm with
01:04:57.800
you. This is nuts. I mean, the elites that are running the, the state department, the Pentagon,
01:05:04.600
the media, all of it, we all look at each other in day to day and go, you know, you and I could fix
01:05:12.060
this. It's not that hard. I know. I know it's, it's, um, it, the state department one is really
01:05:19.620
crazy because their job is diplomacy. You know, it's a lesson conflict. No, their, their, their,
01:05:26.460
their objective is regime change. I mean, they've been conducting these regime change operations
01:05:30.820
and you'd think they did it in Ukraine when, when Biden was the vice president,
01:05:35.000
our state department went in there. Anyway. And, and you know what happened three months later,
01:05:40.960
they put Hunter Biden on the board of, of, uh, Burisma. I'm sure that was just a coincidence.
01:05:46.320
I mean, how do you think that's going to, how do you think that's going to end? I mean, he's got,
01:05:51.040
we now have the records that, uh, three Biden members and the, uh, Hallie, the daughter-in-law,
01:06:00.060
I mean, I don't know what, you know, what information she had that was so valuable in
01:06:05.700
Hong Kong for an energy company, but, uh, and Biden's still out there saying it's not true.
01:06:12.140
Is anything ever going to happen to these guys? Probably, probably not. Um, I'm not saying
01:06:18.460
there's not a lot to find. I'm just saying that I think the media, one of their enormous powers is
01:06:23.280
they get to decide who gets investigated. Yeah. Um, effectively because they will, you know,
01:06:29.880
make you a target and gin up outrage if they don't like you. And if they like you, they'll sweep it
01:06:33.500
under the rug. I mean, I, I don't understand how the Hunter Biden thing isn't a big story. I mean,
01:06:41.340
he's put on the board of a Ukrainian energy company three months after Biden gives the attaboy,
01:06:49.520
gives the approval for basically our backing of a, of a coup there. And it's not like he has energy
01:06:57.780
experience. You know, he's utterly unqualified. He's utterly unqualified for the post. Um, it's
01:07:05.040
just, that that's crazy to me. But once again, uh, the media decides what we care about because they
01:07:11.220
just won't cover it if they don't like it. David, always good to talk to you. Thanks. I hope to,
01:07:16.960
hope to talk to you again. Thank you. Absolutely. Thanks Glenn. Great to see you.
01:07:21.260
Just a reminder. I'd love you to rate and subscribe to the podcast and pass this on to a friend so it