The Great America Show - DOES A.I. SCARE YOU？ WILL A.I. MAKE US SMARTER, BETTER, MORE PRODUCTIVE OR WILL A.I. BE THE END OF CIVILIZATION, THE END OF THE HUMAN ERA？

00:00:00.000 Hello, everybody. I'm Lou Dobbs, and this is The Great America Show. We welcome you. Great to have

00:00:05.420 you with us. The big story of the week, that is right after the breaking installments from the

00:00:10.820 running drama at Fox News, is the 6 a.m. video announcement from the White House that the

00:00:17.160 world's greatest living puppet president, who is 80 years old, impaired and compromised,

00:00:23.060 has, after careful deliberation, deep prayer, earnest consultation with his family,

00:00:30.000 and humble counsel with President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Zelensky, he has made up his mind,

00:00:37.360 and Mr. Biden has decided to run for reselection in 2024. And part of the excitement around the

00:00:45.560 president's announcement, and let's face it, this wasn't entirely unexpected. Part of the excitement

00:00:51.740 is Mr. Biden has already thrown a changeup. And this is my insight, my analysis of what may not

00:00:59.180 be obvious to casual observers. Biden's video message is the message, I believe. Biden announced

00:01:07.920 he's running on video. And that's a big change from 2020, when he was doing most of his talking

00:01:14.980 and campaigning from his basement in Wilmington, Delaware. Now it looks to me like he's made a

00:01:21.340 solid commitment to being on video throughout his re-election campaign. A lot to look for there

00:01:28.420 in the coming weeks and months as President Biden seeks a second term and a way to energize and to

00:01:35.240 excite a base that, for the most part, isn't excited or perhaps even excitable. The 30 percent of

00:01:43.380 Democrats who do approve of President Biden's madcap policies of the last two and a half years

00:01:49.320 are cheering. We haven't, however, checked in with the other 70 percent who are opposed to the idea.

00:01:55.820 Biden's $7 trillion fiscal 2024 budget is a killer. There's no other way to say it. That is a heavy

00:02:04.840 load for any, any incumbent to carry to the voters. And so is the almost $2 trillion deficit

00:02:11.880 that results. For all practical purposes, Biden is leading a regime that has little resemblance to

00:02:19.480 the constitutional republic that preceded it for 240 years. Biden has gone rogue and he's getting

00:02:26.980 away with it. He leads by fiat. He issues executive orders and does exactly what he wants. Wide open

00:02:34.960 borders. He's sending more than $100 billion to Ukraine. He refuses to arbitrate a peace deal with

00:02:41.760 Russia and Ukraine. He's doing whatever China wants. Ends U.S. energy independence. Draws down

00:02:48.560 our strategic petroleum reserves to the lowest level in 40 years and sells some of that oil to the

00:02:55.120 Chinese, for crying out loud. Then drives Saudi Arabia into the arms of Vladimir Putin and the

00:03:01.080 Ayatollahs. Inflation is at 6 percent. Markets are volatile and the economy nearing recession.

00:03:06.960 This is an incumbent looking for re-election? Really? And President Biden and his family are

00:03:14.360 crooked, corrupt and dangerous, I'm told reliably. The House investigating committees already have

00:03:20.440 evidence that a dozen family members are profiting from Biden's influence peddling. And we know now for

00:03:27.360 a fact that the Marxist Dems, the Deep State and Biden campaign in 2020 conspired to create a cover-up

00:03:35.540 of Hunter's laptop with the help of the Obama intelligence chiefs and a deputy State Department

00:03:42.000 official who is now Biden's Secretary of State. Biden may not be held to account for what he did in

00:03:49.160 2020. But I do believe he doesn't have a chance of re-election. Mark my words, not a chance. Biden may,

00:03:57.380 of course, do more damage, and almost certainly he will. But this rogue Biden-Marxist-Dim regime

00:04:03.280 is in its last throes. But as they say, there's more. Not about Biden or even presidential politics,

00:04:11.160 but about what some have styled humanity's last invention, or the end of civilization,

00:04:17.180 the end of the human era. Now, I would call that somewhat sensationalist exposition. But what do I

00:04:23.760 know? What do any of us know, really, when compared to artificial intelligence, which promises to be

00:04:29.680 humanity's next big thing? Revolutionary, explosive, amazing, transformational. And only a few thousand

00:04:38.600 people on this planet seem to know what this thing called artificial intelligence really is,

00:04:44.480 or what it's likely to become. But we do know we're all about to be profoundly affected by it.

00:04:51.140 And I thought it might be useful if you and I started to learn more about AI, or AGI,

00:04:56.740 artificial generative intelligence, its benefits, its dangers. And our guest today is one of those

00:05:04.020 few on this planet who's been thinking about AI for some time. He co-founded, in fact, a machine

00:05:10.120 learning startup. The company was Geometric Intelligence, which he sold to Uber seven years

00:05:15.920 ago. He's a cognitive scientist, NYU professor emeritus of psychology and neural science,

00:05:22.040 and author of Rebooting AI, Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust. Available on Amazon,

00:05:29.640 and we recommend the book to you highly. And we welcome to The Great America Show, Gary Marcus.

00:05:35.780 Gary, good of you to be with us. We're almost all of us hearing a lot about AI. We know the big tech

00:05:41.840 companies are warning all of us about the dangers of AI, the dangers of AI just in the hands of the

00:05:48.020 corporations themselves. And we're told by the Biden Department of Homeland Security that they

00:05:53.980 want all the AI they can get to control people and to control information. And we don't like the sound

00:06:00.580 of that either, Gary. The truth is, most of us don't know whether to fear or cheer AI. So could we

00:06:07.620 please start, Gary, with just what is artificial intelligence?

00:06:11.520 It's actually hard to define. It's a little, I know it when you see it, but it's basically the idea of

00:06:17.100 machines doing smart things. You could argue and say a calculator counts as a little bit of artificial

00:06:22.200 intelligence. And you could say that the Star Trek computer that could talk about anything is maybe a lot

00:06:27.900 more artificial intelligence. Intelligence actually has many different aspects to it. But basically, we're talking

00:06:33.240 about machines that can do smart things, maybe replacing people, maybe augmenting people to do things they

00:06:38.300 couldn't do before. Augmentation. That's a that's an interesting word, because this concern right now being

00:06:45.680 expressed by that in that open letter, and now in follow up to that, there's, I will put it this way, AI

00:06:54.280 leaders, including yourself, talking about really the dangers that AI represents. And right now, that seems to be

00:07:03.900 more the focus than the benefits of AI. Do you agree? Well, I mean, they're both. I think a lot of

00:07:10.040 people are thinking every day about the benefits. So for example, these new systems save computer

00:07:13.940 programmers a lot of time. And increasing the productivity of programmers is a great thing. So

00:07:18.760 there's definitely some benefits here. They're also fun to play with and so forth. But you ultimately,

00:07:22.960 you want to ask a kind of cost benefit trade off. And there are certainly a lot of risks around these

00:07:28.460 systems. And things have moved so quickly that I would say, the first thing that a lot of us are

00:07:33.900 saying is maybe we need to slow down and understand where we are. So I don't think anybody can give an

00:07:39.160 honest question to do the benefits outweigh the risks, because nobody fully understands with these

00:07:44.720 new technologies, what the limits are and how they can be used. So probably someone else might make

00:07:49.780 the case for the positive. I've been focusing on the negative and trying to understand that.

00:07:53.600 My biggest short term concern is about misinformation, the ability of say, foreign

00:07:59.680 countries to disrupt elections by making up as much misinformation as they want in incredibly

00:08:04.640 plausible ways. Nobody can tell the difference. Just much greater volume. So the cost of misinformation

00:08:10.000 has gone to zero. And I think that's threatening democracy. So that's one concern I have. Another

00:08:15.360 concern is that cyber criminals can use this stuff to trick people. And there are now new tools like

00:08:20.580 auto GPT where one AI controls another. And we might see situations where people do like

00:08:25.940 fishing expeditions to get people's credentials, or there's something called a pig butchering scheme

00:08:32.260 where you pretend to be somebody's friend and eventually get them to send you money and you milk

00:08:36.760 them for money. And we may see those things automated in a way that we've never seen before.

00:08:41.080 So there are a lot of risks like that. I would call those nearer term risks. Another near term risk is that

00:08:45.880 people might trust these new search engines, don't really know what they're talking about,

00:08:50.020 aren't really that reliable with, for example, medicine or consult them almost like they would

00:08:55.880 consult a psychiatrist. And there may be problems there as well. Misinformation, bad advice. We've

00:09:02.380 already seen a situation where people are essentially in love with these chatbots. And then the chatbot

00:09:07.760 stopped basically having, what is the polite way to say this, having relations with them, verbal relations

00:09:14.740 with them. And people were really upset. And so like, we have attachment issues to it. Most people don't

00:09:19.540 understand that these systems aren't really in form attachments. So there are a lot of different

00:09:26.880 questions like that. And then there are longer term questions about what happens if you have a lot of

00:09:31.400 systems that aren't fully reliable, and you start hooking them up to more and more aspects of the

00:09:35.860 world. And they're really long term questions. I don't take so, so seriously, but I don't think we

00:09:40.940 have a full answer to like a kind of terminator scenario. Like what if they turn on us? And I don't think

00:09:46.000 that's very plausible. But I don't think we have a formal proof that it can't happen. And so I think

00:09:49.880 we do need to take it into consideration. And the reality is, although these new AI systems are very

00:09:55.520 interesting, we don't fully control them. We don't fully understand what they're doing. We call them

00:09:59.800 black boxes. We put in a lot of input data. We don't know exactly what comes out. We don't know

00:10:04.740 exactly what they do. And that's enough for at least some of us to say, maybe we should slow down.

00:10:09.920 You know, my TED talk yesterday, what I called for was for global governance for AI,

00:10:14.180 some kind of coalition where we bring governments together with the companies and

00:10:19.240 brought a representation around the world to try to figure out what should we do

00:10:23.300 about many different individual questions in AI in some kind of coordinated way.

00:10:27.900 Nobody really wants to have, you know, 195 companies, 195 countries with 195 sets of rules.

00:10:33.740 That's not even the interest of the companies. And the companies have to spend a lot of money to

00:10:38.040 train their models. If they do that, you know, uniquely for every country, that's not really good

00:10:41.980 for them either. So I think we're in a rare moment in political history where kind of everybody

00:10:46.820 actually wants the same thing, which is to figure out a regulatory framework where the tech companies

00:10:51.700 can do what they want, but where the citizens are protected and where governments still, you know,

00:10:57.280 have some power. And so it's an interesting and complicated moment in history, but I think it's a

00:11:02.160 good moment to try to work this out. And we don't want to do this like five years from now. We really

00:11:07.080 want to do it now. It's fascinating to start pondering all of the possibilities here to even

00:11:14.540 in restricting, if you will, containing artificial intelligence, restraining it still under human

00:11:21.440 control, if you will. And when I said that word augmentation is interesting because augmentation can

00:11:29.200 also suggest giving great power to the folks you just talked about, criminals, those who mean to

00:11:37.940 do harm in any fashion. And we ultimately are talking about policing, not AI, but ourselves

00:11:45.800 in that instance. And yet the long-term dangers, as you put out, and frankly, Gary, you're the only one

00:11:53.840 I know who's talked about this in both the near term and the long-term, talked about it in terms

00:11:59.220 of the immediate societal impact as well as the long-term. And I think that all of that has to be

00:12:07.560 discussed. But I really wonder when I see Time magazine saying, you know, we really can't,

00:12:15.740 we can't pause. We've, you know, we've got to pause, excuse me, and we've got to hold fire.

00:12:24.400 The Chamber of Commerce comes out and says, we can't pause. We've got to beat the doggone Chinese

00:12:29.700 or the Russians or whomever. That divide is proximate and it's critical because that's what

00:12:38.840 we're talking about now is competitive AI. And the nation states are the ones who are going to be

00:12:46.100 most competitive in terms of retaining power. The corporations most aggressive, given the fact

00:12:54.740 that they are competitive institutions and mean to win as well, but in a different realm, right?

00:13:00.780 I mean, there's a lot going on there. So there's definitely competition between companies,

00:13:04.860 there's competition between the countries. There's an argument that we shouldn't pause

00:13:08.960 because China will get way ahead of us. I'm not so worried about that particular thing

00:13:13.200 in the sense that the AI that we have now is still fairly limited. I think there are a lot

00:13:18.200 of fantasies that like if China gets to use GPT-5 three months before we do, that they'll invent,

00:13:24.180 I don't know, spaceships, or they'll invent some renewable energy that we don't have or something

00:13:28.720 like that. And these tools are not really good for that. There will be AI like that that's

00:13:33.100 sort of genuinely super intelligent, can do scientific reasoning, invent new technologies.

00:13:38.740 What we're talking about now is more like a productivity enhancer. I mean, people probably

00:13:42.920 play with chat GPT. You can use it to write boilerplate text for you and things like that.

00:13:47.980 It's not going to completely change the world if one nation can write boilerplate text faster than

00:13:52.280 the other, or even if one can code faster than the other for a few months. It might make some

00:13:56.720 differences in productivity. I don't think we're at the level of the technology that some people are

00:14:02.000 fantasing about. You know, China's not going to wake up and build interstellar travel that we don't

00:14:06.340 because they have this tool a few months earlier. But there are all these nearer term problems that

00:14:11.900 everybody faces, whether they have GPT-4 or GPT-5. I don't know that that's really the critical

00:14:16.140 variable. And nobody really is calling for the end of all AI research. The letter itself actually

00:14:22.580 called for a pause only on particular research on this one model, GPT-5, and actually encouraged

00:14:29.820 more research around safety, around making these systems trustworthy and reliable.

00:14:34.600 I think of the AI we have right now as sort of like a teenager, like it's powerful, but not very

00:14:39.400 well controlled yet. It doesn't have a prefrontal cortex to kind of tell it what's right and wrong.

00:14:44.140 And I think we should be mostly focused not on like who builds the biggest model fastest,

00:14:48.980 but who can figure out how to make this stuff tractable and reliable, have the stuff work in an

00:14:55.400 ethical way, in an honest way. They have a huge problem with hallucinations, making stuff up.

00:15:00.600 Nobody's calling for a ban on that kind of research. And I think we should focus more on

00:15:04.940 that, on how to make it so that these systems are things we can count on. I mean, like, you know,

00:15:09.320 it's a nightmare science fiction story when the computer goes out of control. What we really want

00:15:14.160 are computers that will do what we want them to do and that are aligned with our interests. And we don't

00:15:20.120 really have that so much yet. We're going to find out what we do have here next. We're talking with

00:15:25.660 Gary Marcus, a leading voice in artificial intelligence. Stay with us for this quick

00:15:30.740 message from our sponsors. We're coming right back. We're back now. We're talking with Gary Marcus

00:15:36.660 and Gary, you mentioned science fiction and I go back to 1969 and, you know, Space Odyssey and how

00:15:45.920 we're talking about something that's 50 years old is a very good, I think, metaphor for what all is

00:15:55.880 going on. An avatar of two is for that matter. How close are we to Hal?

00:16:03.400 Well, Hal had very good language, very good comprehension. I would say it's ahead of what

00:16:07.500 we have right now. What we have now gives an illusion of understanding language, but it doesn't

00:16:12.000 really. Sometimes I think of her, if you want to talk about science fiction, where the Scarlett

00:16:17.340 Johansson character was sort of all-purpose general assistant who understood a lot of things,

00:16:22.840 had a good theory of how human beings worked. I would say we're somewhat far from that. The latest

00:16:28.300 research shows these systems don't really have that. The thing that we have now that's probably

00:16:32.800 most impressive is these systems are general. They can work on many different things, but their level

00:16:37.260 of comprehension is still pretty poor. In that sense, I think we're still fairly far from Hal.

00:16:41.920 And of course, you know, I don't want to give away the plot for anybody who still hasn't seen 2001,

00:16:45.600 but let's just say that issues about control are important there. They weren't fully resolved in

00:16:50.680 the movie, and they're certainly not fully resolved in the real world right now.

00:16:54.600 And as we are, Sundar Pichai said, the CEO of Google, said he doesn't believe this is a decision for any

00:17:04.180 corporation. And he is calling, just as you intimated, for a broader discussion with ethicists,

00:17:12.780 philosophers, and we're talking about then, of course, the possibility of the intrusion. And I

00:17:20.440 know you're calling for government involvement, global governance. But right now, we have government

00:17:26.740 that I'm a product of the 60s, Gary. I don't trust government. And I am not the first person to

00:17:33.700 get to the line and say, you know, what we need here is more government and government control.

00:17:39.160 Your thoughts on the problems that would be created with one world governance?

00:17:45.660 I mean, I think that, you know, a critical part of what makes the US government work as well as it

00:17:50.300 does, which is not perfectly, is checks and balances. And I think we need some checks and

00:17:55.400 balances in the global governance of AI. We need to have both the companies and the governments

00:18:01.200 at the table. And they both have interests that are not necessarily truly aligned with the citizens'

00:18:06.580 interest. In an ideal world, maybe they would be, but we don't live in that ideal world.

00:18:10.840 And so I think we need a lot of stakeholders to balance a lot of things here.

00:18:14.280 I think that, you know, we don't want the companies to have all the power either, right? So nobody

00:18:21.380 really thinks about it, for example. But ChatGPT is sucking down lots of private information. We saw,

00:18:26.200 I think it was Samsung, we go, you know, people were typing in private company data, and then

00:18:30.820 suddenly OpenAI had its hands on. And so, you know, there's multiple concerns here about who has

00:18:37.860 control of data, about who makes decisions about the politics, essentially, of these systems.

00:18:44.280 There are concerns about whether we want any regulation about what you can release. So,

00:18:49.580 for example, you know, in the pharmaceutical system, we have phase one, phase two, phase three

00:18:53.720 trials. You don't just try something out on 100 million people without testing it first.

00:18:58.360 Probably don't want the tech firms to be able to do that. That's what they did

00:19:01.300 with Sydney. And they didn't really quite know what they were doing, as far as I can tell.

00:19:07.020 You know, they kind of just threw it out there and wanted to see what happens. And so,

00:19:10.840 we may want some regulation around that, for example, that the tech companies might not do

00:19:15.460 on their own. So, there are many different trade-offs that have to be made. But I think

00:19:21.680 to leave them entirely to the government or entirely to industry, neither of those models

00:19:25.100 really works. And so, we need some way of balancing those interests. And you mentioned,

00:19:29.860 like, having philosophers at the table. I think we need a lot of people at the table. We need economists,

00:19:33.860 we need philosophers, anthropologists, pretty much all fields. I think we really do want

00:19:39.100 global representation here to try to come to something that works for everybody across the

00:19:44.160 table.

00:19:44.380 Working for everybody across the table, the folks I worry about are the folks. That is,

00:19:51.580 people who are underrepresented right now, for example, in the United States. It's a government

00:19:57.260 that is divided between two parties, neither of which is arguably, well, I'll put it this way. In my

00:20:03.600 view, government is too much about growing government. We are very suspicious of what these policies are

00:20:12.040 leading to. We're very suspicious of China and its intentions toward the United States, and indeed,

00:20:19.720 world civilization. The threat of AI, and I understand that this is not proximate, that it is some time off,

00:20:29.920 but the way in which it's progressing seems geometric to me. What GPT-4 is, next up is five,

00:20:40.280 and how quickly do we get to 10 or 15? Is there a velocity multiplier here that we should also expect?

00:20:51.800 I'll talk about that in a second, but I'll go back first and say, I don't think that AI governance

00:20:56.540 actually should be a right-left issue. And I think it's interesting, for example, that Peggy Noonan,

00:21:01.380 who is, as you well know, was Reagan's speechwriter, one of Reagan's speechwriters,

00:21:05.720 came out in the Wall Street Journal saying, we need a longer pause. I think that everybody,

00:21:11.020 whatever their party is, should be concerned about tech companies having that much power to shape

00:21:15.200 our lives without any kind of government say over it at all, or any say for the people over it at all.

00:21:23.200 It's sort of like what we've seen with social media, but I think an even greater extent in terms of

00:21:28.580 invasion of privacy and control about what information we see and so forth. So I think

00:21:33.080 that we may actually see a surprising amount of unity between the right and left,

00:21:37.880 which, as we all know, has largely been a dysfunctional divide for a long time. But I

00:21:41.700 think on this issue, there's reason for everybody to care. On the acceleration issue,

00:21:47.860 it's not clear because the enormous energy costs, enormous expense of training bigger and bigger

00:21:56.120 models, it's not clear how long we can push it. I like to think of Moore's law. We all thought

00:22:00.700 you could just double the amount of transistors you had indefinitely forever and keep cutting the

00:22:06.780 costs. And it actually, by most people's accounts, started to slow down around the year 2000.

00:22:12.100 So Moore's law is not a physical law of the universe like gravity. It's just something that's

00:22:16.840 a generalization that we saw over time for a while, and it lasted for a while, and then it stopped.

00:22:21.180 It's not clear there's enough, let's say, electricity in the United States to actually train

00:22:25.740 GPT-10 or GPT-11 or something like that. So at some point, these things are going to

00:22:31.900 stop accelerating at the speed that they are. But they will continue for a while, and we're not that

00:22:39.240 good at projecting out what they'll look like, say, even two years from now.

00:22:42.920 And as we think about artificial intelligence, and we think about the cloud, can AI be contained?

00:22:54.520 Or will we see an array of computers that just gets double the volume every, you know, following

00:23:01.900 Moore's law, as you suggest, it perhaps won't last much longer than Moore's law. But the fact is,

00:23:08.740 it wouldn't have to do too much in the way of geometric progression to be just an unthinkable

00:23:16.080 and extraordinary regenerative artificial intelligence that would be working at light speed

00:23:25.540 and creating just dazzling results.

00:23:32.160 Well, yes and no. So like, I wrote a piece, an essay in my substack, Gary Marcus, that substack,

00:23:38.600 called What to Expect When You're Expecting GPT-4. And I predicted that it would have a lot of the

00:23:43.400 same problems as GPT-3, like hallucinating, making stuff up, having trouble understanding

00:23:49.460 the physical world, the psychological world. And all of those predictions were actually true.

00:23:53.820 Like, there's some ways in which these systems are better, and there's some ways in which they

00:23:57.360 really haven't improved at all. I'll give you another example. GPT-4 was trained on a lot of chess

00:24:02.580 games and on the rules of chess, but it can't even always follow the rules. And it doesn't play any

00:24:07.500 better than a chess computer from 1978. You wouldn't want to put it in a car to drive your

00:24:12.480 car. There are lots of ways in which these AIs are actually still pretty limited. And it's not

00:24:18.080 clear that doubling and doubling the current technology is actually going to solve those

00:24:21.820 problems. So you will see kind of more of what we have now of this kind of being able to write

00:24:27.620 boilerplate text and be able to do some interesting things. But I wouldn't assume that it's going to

00:24:31.760 be what we sometimes call, excuse me, artificial general intelligence that can solve any problem.

00:24:37.340 We're talking with Gary Marcus, a leading voice in AI. He's author of the book, Rebooting AI,

00:24:45.180 among the very first to be cautionary in terms of AI. And we're going to continue our discussion.

00:24:54.060 And if I may say, Gary, a fascinating discussion. Stay with us, please, for this brief message from

00:24:58.900 our sponsors. We're coming right back. We're back now talking with Gary Marcus. And Gary,

00:25:05.680 I have to say, thank you so much for being here today, because you're instructive and you're

00:25:12.880 illuminating. And we appreciate very much your time and your thoughtfulness. Elon Musk's warning of a

00:25:20.200 threat to civilization. It's a threat that you don't see, apparently, as...

00:25:25.120 Not as imminent. I mean, I think it's possible, but I don't, I'm not as concerned about that

00:25:31.080 particular one. I think we should have some awareness of it.

00:25:34.900 And as we look at what's involved here, there is an effort to talk about transhumanism and AI as if

00:25:42.300 they are, well, they're going to meld into one form. Your thoughts about that?

00:25:50.800 I think we will see more and more kind of augmentation. I don't know about transhumanism,

00:25:56.360 but like already, like my cell phone augments my mental life, right? Like it remembers all my phone

00:26:01.320 numbers and appointments for me. And we will see more and more of that where we rely on machines to

00:26:06.340 do more and more for us. And I think there's been a lot of talk about people losing jobs. So far,

00:26:11.240 AI has not taken that many jobs, but it's made a lot of jobs more powerful and more effective. So like

00:26:16.260 we heard five years ago that all the taxi drivers were going to lose their jobs and they didn't.

00:26:20.820 We heard that radiologists were all going to lose their jobs and they didn't. What radiologists do

00:26:26.100 now is they can do more work faster by using the AI, but there's still some human judgment there.

00:26:31.260 You know, in a hundred years, maybe machines will just do most of our work for us, but at least

00:26:35.460 in the near term, they're just going to make our jobs easier. And they'll change some people's jobs,

00:26:41.260 change the dynamics of it. But we will mostly be working together with the machines for a while.

00:26:46.120 Well, working together, that sounds good. I have to say some people, as you well know,

00:26:54.160 consider it to be the next step in human evolution, which is a fascinating concept,

00:27:00.820 but you can't get perfection from artificial intelligence, at least now. What is the future

00:27:07.980 as you see it? I guess it depends on the timescale. I don't think anybody can predict

00:27:12.840 what it's all going to be like a hundred years from now. I mean, think about all the things that

00:27:16.200 weren't here a hundred years ago. Like there weren't commercial airliners, there weren't cell

00:27:22.380 phones, there was no social media. I guess there wasn't television yet. And then maybe on the drawing

00:27:28.080 board, a hundred years is a long time. And I think in the AI world, it's particularly long. I'm just

00:27:34.340 looking at what happened in the last few months. I don't think we can really predict that. I think

00:27:38.740 we can predict that in the next decade, employment will still be pretty good, but maybe not as good

00:27:43.220 as it is now. I think we can predict that driverless cars are actually going to take a while yet,

00:27:48.520 that we're not really to the level of reliability to do that. And we can predict that AI is going to

00:27:53.780 be more and more of our daily life. And that's going to rapidly escalate over the next several years.

00:27:59.220 Uh, beneficial and helpful and, uh, extraordinary. I'm sorry, good. They are the good and the bad.

00:28:07.640 We're going to see more good and we're going to see more bad. We're going to see more of it. It's going

00:28:11.080 to be more of a focus of our lives. Going back to that word you used initially, augmentation, uh, the

00:28:17.420 choices, and you were talking about, it shouldn't be a red or blue thing, uh, a partisan matter. Uh, but we

00:28:24.120 always seem to devolve, uh, to ideological and partisan differences, uh, around the world. Uh,

00:28:32.140 and we know those differences between China and the United States now are widening, uh, and more

00:28:37.820 intense than ever. Give us your judgment about what is a safe way to proceed to have a, a geostrategic,

00:28:49.400 uh, advantage, uh, against this country's enemies. I mean, I think, you know, every country has to

00:28:56.620 continue to do the kinds of things that it's done in its defense. And, and, you know, the U S needs

00:29:03.080 to think about how, for example, its defense department can use these technologies, how it

00:29:08.060 can deal with the limitations of these technologies. Like, I don't think anything really changes there.

00:29:13.220 We're always trying to, to figure out how to maximize our use of new technologies. And we certainly

00:29:18.660 should be doing that. Um, I think we have to do it with eyes open. I think a lot of people

00:29:23.000 treat these technologies as if they're magic and really they're just a set of tools that have

00:29:27.540 strengths and weaknesses. So we need to be informed and nuanced about how we do it. Um, but I don't

00:29:32.680 think any of that changes fundamentally, but I think it is going to keep a lot of people really busy

00:29:38.020 because suddenly there are all these opportunities and all these risks, and it's going to take a lot of

00:29:43.360 work to really understand, you know, how does this technology work in the real world? What are the use

00:29:47.640 cases where it's actually helping me? What are the use cases where I can't really trust it?

00:29:51.640 So there's plenty of work. And I mean, the Chinese have to do that just like the people

00:29:55.000 in the United States. I'm an American citizen. Um, you know, everybody has to look at these new

00:30:01.360 tools and say, what are the risks? What are the benefits? How are we going to use them?

00:30:05.420 And when we look at the tools, we're talking about government, uh, and those in government

00:30:10.800 trying to make assessments, what strikes me and one of the reasons we're having this discussion

00:30:16.300 and this program will be discussing this issue a lot because of what you have been talking about

00:30:23.260 here today, the potentialities are tremendous. I don't think I can think of a, uh, of a development

00:30:31.180 that has any more powerful, uh, uh, than this, uh, seems to be, uh, and government is not

00:30:41.120 possessed of the minds that are necessary to comprehend and to, to shape that future because

00:30:47.980 of their technological, uh, yeah, there's a very serious problem that governments aren't

00:30:54.040 technologists and that they need technologists at the table and they need not only the technologists

00:30:58.620 at the big corporations who obviously have vested interests, they need, you know, smart

00:31:02.540 academics and researchers and so forth who have thought about these things too. Part of

00:31:06.800 the reason to have a global alliance, which is what I'm pushing for is to have a lot of

00:31:10.400 expertise on board so that, you know, individual governments that don't have that expertise to

00:31:15.420 have a place to consult and, and, you know, to ask, you know, what should I think of this

00:31:21.040 new technology? We have nothing like that. Most governments have no training in this, or they

00:31:25.540 have a few people that have a little bit of training. Um, and that means they're not really

00:31:29.620 up to speed. So, you know, governments need a place to turn. I think an international organization

00:31:35.360 that's neutral could be, could be a place for the governments to get informed. I think there's

00:31:39.440 also, we haven't talked about it, but a huge need for AI literacy around the entire globe,

00:31:43.240 um, for all citizens, for all governments. And that needs to be part of this too, is, is figuring

00:31:49.360 out how to get people up to speed on like, when do you trust these things? Why you shouldn't

00:31:53.760 treat them as humans, even though they seem like humans, um, you know, how fast are they

00:31:58.300 moving? What can they do? Where do they go wrong? Why do they hallucinate? Um, you know,

00:32:02.940 we need a lot of literacy around that. I'm going to start doing some like, uh, uh, animated

00:32:07.520 videos with, with one of the television networks to try to raise some AI literacy, but we need

00:32:12.620 to do this at every level from, you know, young kids all the way up to governments.

00:32:17.760 Well, and that's why we're, again, we're having this discussion here today. And one of the

00:32:22.760 reasons we're deeply appreciative is because this, this podcast is going to be dedicated

00:32:27.380 to, to raising that literacy and, and bringing, uh, information to our audience, uh, because

00:32:33.320 it's just, it's, it's, it's, uh, I'm a populist and I want, uh, you talked about people around

00:32:39.600 the table. I want the people around that table, uh, and not intermediate areas. I want them there,

00:32:45.320 uh, because the center of this country depends on, uh, on them. Uh, that's, that's where we live.

00:32:52.620 And our values shine brightest, uh, when this nation is at its best, uh, give us, if you will,

00:32:59.940 you're, as we're wrapping up here, give us, can I actually jump in for one second? Um, I don't

00:33:06.500 usually plug things so directly, but I think it's so relevant. I have a new podcast called coming out

00:33:10.900 called humans versus machines. And it's really designed to get people kind of a deep dive into

00:33:15.500 how all of these things work. So we'll, for example, talk about the rise of IBM Watson and

00:33:20.220 how they went in jeopardy and then how they overpromised and said they'd solve cancer and

00:33:23.580 how that failed. So that's humans machines comes out coming out next week. Um, and it's very much

00:33:28.360 designed to go to the people and teach people, um, how this all works.

00:33:32.300 And the title is humans and machines, humans versus machines versus machines. I think you've

00:33:38.980 got a great time. It looks, it looks like that's exactly what, uh, we're going to be looking at

00:33:46.040 talking about it in terms of, uh, whether appropriately or not. Uh, I think that's wonderful. And I, I wish

00:33:52.040 all of the best of luck. Uh, and I want to, uh, once again, it's humans versus machines, a podcast

00:33:59.480 starting, you said next week, Gary, Gary markets will be leading that hosting it. And we look

00:34:04.900 forward to that. And Gary, we also hope you will come back and join us on this podcast, uh, for more

00:34:11.960 discussions. It's fun. It's fun. It's really important. So anytime. And we always give our

00:34:17.260 guests the last word. Uh, so you're concluding thoughts, uh, here today. I think everybody needs

00:34:23.600 to come together around this left, right governments, corporations, citizens. We all need to make sure that

00:34:29.440 we get the value out of these things, but also that we have enough control over them that we can

00:34:33.700 trust them. Well said. And I want to say to you, thank you so much for being with us here today for

00:34:39.460 educating, uh, us. I will add, um, specifically myself. I appreciate it so much, Gary. It's just

00:34:47.600 been wonderful talking with you. I hope you'll come back soon. I'd love to real pleasure. Thank you very

00:34:52.560 much. Gary Marcus. Thanks for the tutorial. Thanks for being with us. I hope you found Gary is

00:34:57.320 interesting and instructive as I did. It's a tough subject, but one I think we all need to be

00:35:02.940 thinking about, and we're going to have a number of guests here to lead us through all of this.

00:35:08.820 Thanks everybody for being with us here tomorrow. Our guest will be former Trump presidential

00:35:12.840 assistant, Peter Navarro. Peter Navarro has been charged with contempt of Congress for honoring the

00:35:19.080 presidential executive privilege that the January 6th committee chose to utterly ignore. Peter's been in a

00:35:26.100 battle and he's fighting through. Please join us tomorrow. Till then, thank you and God bless you.

The Great America Show - April 26, 2023

DOES A.I. SCARE YOU？ WILL A.I. MAKE US SMARTER, BETTER, MORE PRODUCTIVE OR WILL A.I. BE THE END OF CIVILIZATION, THE END OF THE HUMAN ERA？

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