The Great America Show - IS KAMALA REALLY POLLING AS WELL AS THEY SAY？

00:00:00.000 Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Great America Show.

00:00:05.140 It's great to have you with us.

00:00:06.520 We're now just 67 days away from the 2024 election.

00:00:10.020 So far, this election cycle, we've had an incumbent candidate be forced out of the race,

00:00:14.740 a wildly popular independent candidate drop out of the race and throw his support behind

00:00:18.640 a Republican, and hell, we even had a political candidate be indicted on criminal charges.

00:00:23.200 So I don't think there's any argument to be had.

00:00:25.380 This election cycle is the most historic in the nation's history.

00:00:27.960 Just last week, we had the DNC wrap-up, and still we have no clarity from the Democrats

00:00:32.680 on their message to the American people.

00:00:34.940 What did we hear?

00:00:36.280 We heard Donald Trump's name mentioned 300 times, 150 times on the first day alone.

00:00:41.040 To me, that seems highly peculiar to have that name mentioned at the DNC convention of the

00:00:45.680 man you despise most.

00:00:47.800 Where was the messaging to the American people?

00:00:50.080 What was the message that you were going to tell us that you were all going to fix everything?

00:00:53.340 Inflation, gas prices, grocery costs, foreign policy.

00:00:56.880 We do have two wars overseas that we are funding, but of course, there was none of that because

00:01:01.460 the Democrats have no plan.

00:01:03.740 So what is the polling telling us right now between President Trump and Kamala Harris?

00:01:07.580 Should we even believe these polls?

00:01:09.280 Why are they so tight?

00:01:10.540 I want to bring in our guest today and get his take on it.

00:01:13.020 He's Mark Mitchell.

00:01:14.160 He's the leading pollster for Raspusen.

00:01:15.800 Mark, it's great to have you with us.

00:01:17.840 First, I want to get your take on national polling numbers right now between Kamala Harris and

00:01:23.560 President Donald J. Trump post-convention.

00:01:27.580 Absolutely.

00:01:28.380 And let me first say, I'm really happy to be here.

00:01:30.680 We greatly respected Lou Dobbs at Raspusen Reports.

00:01:34.120 I love honesty.

00:01:35.640 And you could just tell that every pore of his being exudes complete and total honesty.

00:01:42.140 And I think we need more of that in political discourse.

00:01:44.900 But we polled, we released so much national polling last week, two very major polls, a

00:01:50.920 2,600 U.S. likely voter poll that was done up until the first two days of the DNC.

00:01:57.320 And in a direct two-way matchup, we had Donald Trump winning by two points, 48 percent, to

00:02:04.360 Kamala Harris, 46 percent.

00:02:06.500 And in a multi-way matchup, he was actually up three points, 47 to 44.

00:02:11.800 And that might be a surprise to people, but Donald Trump is winning nationally.

00:02:17.640 In the other poll we released a day later that he had data up on the third day of the

00:02:22.660 DNC, we had Donald Trump up three points in a two-way and then two points in a three-way.

00:02:29.480 So it's a two- to three-point race nationally for Donald Trump.

00:02:33.840 We've also been doing nightly polling and releasing a chart on our Twitter feed that kind of tracks

00:02:38.380 the race so you don't have to wait every Thursday for our numbers to drop.

00:02:41.900 And what I can tell you is the last two days of the DNC and going into Friday, there were

00:02:47.380 nights when Trump and Harris were tied in those individual nightly results.

00:02:53.240 But after the RFK endorsement and then again on Monday night, Trump was up one point and

00:02:58.880 now two points in those national results.

00:03:02.380 So what it looks like to me is that Kamala Harris got maybe a mediocre bounce, nothing

00:03:08.060 like what you'll see everywhere else in the polling industry, and that Donald Trump is

00:03:12.520 returning about back to where he has been for the last couple of weeks, is up comfortably

00:03:18.920 two to three points.

00:03:20.340 Maybe we'll see four with the RFK endorsement.

00:03:22.420 I don't know.

00:03:22.980 I don't want to predict too much.

00:03:24.400 But I think the big point to talk about is all of those lists of just absolutely crazy

00:03:31.160 political happenings, and it didn't really change our numbers that much at all.

00:03:36.840 Now, it changed everybody else's numbers in the industry, but I'm here to tell you, we

00:03:40.480 didn't shift any of our weighting.

00:03:42.740 We didn't oversample Biden supporters.

00:03:44.780 We aren't playing around with our regional targeting.

00:03:47.760 And Trump was up four to five points by the end with Biden.

00:03:52.060 Now he's up, you know, two to three points, but she is a better candidate in some ways

00:03:57.400 than Joe Biden.

00:03:58.400 She fogs the mirror, and that's a pretty critical thing. 0.98

00:04:02.260 And so the race tightened.

00:04:03.660 And I think we can all look around and say, you know, subject to maybe a black swan or two,

00:04:09.740 this could be her high watermark, which would just be absolutely cataclysmic for Democrats

00:04:15.840 because Donald Trump really didn't come anywhere close to being up in the national popular

00:04:21.100 vote in the last two cycles.

00:04:23.100 And I think historically he underperformed in the polls, as we all know.

00:04:27.440 The truth of the matter is, I think, and you let me know if you disagree with me on this,

00:04:31.180 is that you could have put anybody up.

00:04:33.280 You could have probably put the most hated man in America up, aside from Donald Trump,

00:04:36.440 according to the Democrats, in place of Joe Biden.

00:04:39.060 And there would have been this honeymoon period because there's excitement for a new candidate,

00:04:43.260 you know, fresh blood or whatever you want to call it.

00:04:45.540 Is that what I'm reading?

00:04:46.860 Am I reading into that correctly?

00:04:48.020 Yeah, I mean, a lot of stuff happened all at once, and it's really tough to figure out

00:04:53.720 what exactly was running through people's minds.

00:04:56.180 I will say there's one additional factor.

00:04:58.580 And if you look at our polling going back all the way in 21 and 22 for a 2024 rematch,

00:05:04.500 numbers were kind of big Trump lead, but all over the place.

00:05:07.740 And what happens when you lead up into the final months of an election cycle is somewhere along

00:05:12.660 the way, maybe at the end of the summer, maybe after something like the Supreme Court decision

00:05:16.840 that happened in the 22 cycle, everybody just wakes up, starts paying attention to the news,

00:05:21.880 the advertising money gets put out there.

00:05:23.660 And what happened after that debate is that the numbers just lasered in, weren't swinging

00:05:29.840 around much anymore.

00:05:30.820 And Democrats woke up big and they actually kind of rallied support around Biden.

00:05:36.180 I think it was a reaction to like, oh, my God, Trump might win this.

00:05:40.460 I think that was probably the biggest result.

00:05:43.560 And they entered this mental state where it's like, OK, circle the wagons, blue no matter

00:05:49.720 who, sure will support a border wall now. 0.98

00:05:52.760 Don't care that we are calling people racist for the last 10 years when they talked about

00:05:56.500 border wall.

00:05:57.000 So it really is this kind of and again, like Trump was shot.

00:06:01.280 There was the RNC.

00:06:02.820 Biden dropped out.

00:06:04.060 You had Obama weigh in on the race.

00:06:06.240 Now you have RFK.

00:06:07.360 And it's moving the numbers, maybe a point.

00:06:09.280 It's hard to even show like exactly what event is affecting the numbers.

00:06:14.320 And that's because it's like political Armageddon.

00:06:17.480 Everybody's just choosing sides.

00:06:19.340 You know, it's funny, Mark.

00:06:20.060 I thought, you know, last year when we ousted Kevin, when Kevin McCarthy was ousted as

00:06:25.900 Speaker of the House, that that was going to be the most crazy political scene we were

00:06:29.320 going to see in a long time.

00:06:31.400 Come to find out that just months later, we're going to have an incumbent candidate be pushed

00:06:36.180 out of his position by whether it be the Speaker of the House or the Senate Majority Leader

00:06:40.020 Chuck Sumer or all of the above.

00:06:42.700 I mean, the political landscape we're in right now, I, you know, I often use this joke is

00:06:47.320 Steve Harvey came out in front of a camera and told us we were all being punked for the

00:06:50.960 last we'll go, you know, four or five years because we'll throw COVID in there as well.

00:06:55.400 I would totally believe it because everything we're seeing right now is just wildly insane

00:07:00.660 according to any person's standards.

00:07:05.500 Yeah, it's hard to see what the calculus is when these events happen because an isolated

00:07:11.180 individual event like the Kevin McCarthy thing will show up and us politicos will say, wow,

00:07:17.360 this is this has never happened.

00:07:18.440 It's only happened once in the country's history.

00:07:19.980 It's going to change everything.

00:07:21.080 And I will say that Kevin McCarthy was part of a larger nudge.

00:07:26.180 People mostly didn't know about him.

00:07:28.180 Republicans kind of liked him, kind of didn't.

00:07:30.060 They really what they didn't like was the chaos that was happening in the House and how

00:07:35.220 those optics, in my opinion, piled up on top of the 2022 underperformance.

00:07:40.920 People basically just thought, well, Republicans don't have their act together.

00:07:44.960 And that was impacting Trump's numbers negatively and also fanning of Ron DeSantis's flame.

00:07:52.120 So in that sort of February period, DeSantis was taking home maybe 50 percent of what Trump

00:07:58.160 was.

00:07:58.620 It was like 48 to 24, something like that.

00:08:01.320 And then all of a sudden what shifted wasn't entirely just the indictment.

00:08:07.320 It's also DeSantis declaring his presidential candidacy while the indictment happened on top

00:08:14.520 of the fact that Biden ignored that big fire in East Palestine.

00:08:18.600 Right.

00:08:18.700 All that happened at once.

00:08:20.100 And it's like, oh, Trump, it's Trump's to win.

00:08:22.480 The primary numbers immediately went Trump.

00:08:25.580 DeSantis, his favorability dropped.

00:08:27.220 His very favorable numbers went down 20 points among Republicans.

00:08:29.960 He didn't say anything bad.

00:08:31.400 He literally just did the wrong thing at the wrong time.

00:08:34.660 And it added up to.

00:08:35.820 So now look at Kennedy.

00:08:37.620 I'm looking at that and I'm saying, well, that's big in a way that we haven't seen before.

00:08:44.720 Because Martin, before you get into that, I want to take a quick break here because I

00:08:47.860 do want to talk about that and go great into depth of that.

00:08:50.620 I saw you tweeted something out before the RFK endorsement.

00:08:53.860 You said something along the lines of you weren't sure if it was going to move the needle.

00:08:57.140 And then I saw you tweet after the endorsement.

00:08:59.760 You're like, well, holy crap, this may have moved the needle.

00:09:02.160 I want to take that up on the other side of this break.

00:09:04.040 So let's take a quick break here.

00:09:05.100 We're coming right back with the leading pollster for Rasmussen, Mark Mitchell.

00:09:08.820 We're coming right back.

00:09:09.740 Stay with us.

00:09:15.980 We're back.

00:09:16.620 We're talking with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Polling is their leading pollster.

00:09:19.900 And Mark, right before we went to break, we were talking about that RFK tweet that you

00:09:24.100 had put out that you said you weren't sure if the RFK endorsement was going to move the

00:09:27.400 needle.

00:09:28.380 Now, a week later, what's your take on it?

00:09:32.040 Well, I'm a numbers guy and I'm a math person.

00:09:34.060 And I'm looking at the crosstabs and I say, well, RFK really doesn't have that much support.

00:09:38.680 He started in the low teens.

00:09:40.360 But the last couple of times we polled, he's been in three to five point range for him to

00:09:44.400 come out with a three percent number and then say, like, listen, he's been a lifelong Democrat.

00:09:48.780 He's got some really leftist policies.

00:09:52.360 But yet maybe he has an edge and more Republican voters would vote for him because I think the

00:09:58.260 Republicans are the party of open mindedness right now and trying to fix the system.

00:10:04.180 And so I looked at that mathematically and said, well, he's maybe Trump incrementally gets

00:10:07.960 like a half a point.

00:10:09.080 And I think a lot of people's analysis came out to a similar number as ours.

00:10:12.800 I went through it in great detail on a YouTube video, but the number was like 0.5 to 0.7

00:10:17.560 points.

00:10:18.760 And then all of a sudden he had this speech that was just packed with unassailable data

00:10:25.200 that the left could only run from.

00:10:27.860 You will not see anybody try and fact check that.

00:10:30.140 They can't allow that amount of cognitive dissonance inside the bubble.

00:10:34.560 They can't threaten the advertisers.

00:10:36.560 They can't threaten the worship of science.

00:10:40.080 And not only that, the fact that he called Kamala Harris and she wouldn't pick up the phone

00:10:46.020 in a speech that was talking about the lives and death of children in our country.

00:10:52.920 Right.

00:10:53.060 And then to follow it up, he shows up at that campaign event with pyrotechnics.

00:10:59.120 Like, I just I couldn't believe Friday it was.

00:11:01.180 And not only that, there was even a little bit of palace intrigue, a little bit of leaks

00:11:06.020 about maybe he's not going to endorse Trump.

00:11:08.020 The entire thing was it was like some kind of produced event.

00:11:11.340 And I don't think anybody could have predicted or expected the amount of optics that will

00:11:15.520 come out of that.

00:11:16.540 Now, I will say the RNC was, I think, similar, the type of vibe that it created.

00:11:21.740 And I think Scott Adams is correct.

00:11:23.260 This is a bit of a vibe election.

00:11:25.640 But there might be some people on the fence that say, look at this Democrat.

00:11:30.100 I remember JFK, systems corrupt.

00:11:33.940 And that over the long term, I think, is going to give Trump probably more of a tailwind in

00:11:39.300 a way that we probably won't be able to see in the numbers.

00:11:41.860 But it certainly isn't going to hurt him.

00:11:44.200 You know, the interesting thing about the whole that you'd mentioned the disinformation

00:11:47.660 around the whole RFK endorsement and you had the Democrats during the DNC, the final days

00:11:53.280 when we were expecting the announcement from RFK, when that court document from Pennsylvania

00:11:58.060 got leaked that he was pulling out of the ballot so he can endorse Trump.

00:12:01.560 You had all these people on Twitter saying, well, like you said, he might not endorse him

00:12:06.340 because he had a problem with Trump over Operation Warp Speed and not taking credit for the vaccines

00:12:10.840 and all that stuff.

00:12:11.900 And then you had people come out saying RFK's wife, Cheryl Hines.

00:12:16.700 For people who don't know Cheryl Hines, she's an actress, a Hollywood actress.

00:12:20.060 And she was on, I think, one of the longest television shows in history, Curb Your Enthusiasm

00:12:24.820 with Larry David, who's a known Marxist Democrat.

00:12:28.400 So by him endorsing it, it puts his wife in this really peculiar place.

00:12:33.260 And on Twitter, you'd say, you know, I don't think RFK is going to do it because of his wife.

00:12:37.040 Now we hear from RFK in an interview with Tucker Carlson that his wife was actually the one

00:12:42.520 who pushed him to take the meeting with Trump.

00:12:44.980 So, you know, you just have disinformation after misinformation.

00:12:49.660 You had the DNC saying Beyonce was coming to sort of, you know, block out, you know,

00:12:55.660 the light that RFK was going to. 0.99

00:12:57.340 And I, you know, could have never imagined that he'd come out there like a damn rock star. 0.98

00:13:01.920 And, you know, I think even Trump looking at him coming out there and he's like, 0.98

00:13:06.040 Trump's not oftenly starstruck, but Trump's looking at him like, what the hell is going on here?

00:13:10.360 But I think, you know, to get back on topic here, you know, these Democrats who are now

00:13:16.340 coming over to the side of Republicans, I think it says a lot about what they think about the

00:13:20.420 establishment and what they think about Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

00:13:23.780 You have Tulsi Gabbard also this week.

00:13:25.780 And now you're also hearing that Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota, Tim Waltz's

00:13:30.800 country, I should say, is open to maybe endorsing President Trump.

00:13:37.920 Do you expect we see more of this?

00:13:40.080 Does it move the needle further than we've already seen it?

00:13:44.040 Well, I think it's going to be a cumulative effect.

00:13:46.500 I think if somebody asked me, like numerically, how will Tulsi Gabbard impact Trump's?

00:13:51.380 We're going into the field to try and measure that now.

00:13:53.860 The answer is like, I don't know, 0.1%, right?

00:13:56.440 Who knows?

00:13:57.140 But it's the optics of momentum.

00:13:58.920 And it's the cracking of this wall that I think the Democrats have built around the mentality

00:14:07.580 of their movement.

00:14:08.780 It can't be challenged internally.

00:14:11.320 And to have major defectors is an important thing.

00:14:14.440 Like, I personally think there are some irrational and illogical things that are harming the country

00:14:19.920 in the psyche of the left.

00:14:22.200 And I could point to a million examples.

00:14:24.020 Our COVID polling is one of them.

00:14:25.500 And I think, like Kennedy, a Democrat, that that needs to be corrected.

00:14:30.760 And these kinds of challenges to their narrative, I think, are healthy.

00:14:35.300 Because people should be talking to each other.

00:14:37.260 People shouldn't be dismissing each other for being racist.

00:14:39.560 And the right is obviously guilty of these things as well.

00:14:43.120 But look at how they're embracing Kennedy right now.

00:14:45.460 So it's like, where will this momentum go?

00:14:47.480 I don't know.

00:14:47.920 Already in my overnight numbers, Trump's up one, now two points.

00:14:50.660 And it's like, that's where he was before.

00:14:53.440 But these things are never, you know, it drifts with the timing.

00:14:57.640 It drifts with response bias.

00:14:59.420 There's a whole lot of other things in play.

00:15:01.800 But Trump is now gaining the upper hand with momentum, for sure.

00:15:06.040 You know, you mentioned something interesting.

00:15:07.400 And it's something we don't have anymore.

00:15:08.660 And it's discussion.

00:15:09.840 There's no such thing as political discourse.

00:15:11.260 Because you cannot argue or talk, have a normal conversation with someone about Donald Trump.

00:15:17.360 There's something that sets off in these people's minds, Mark, that I don't know what it is.

00:15:22.400 But it, like, loosens a bolt and they go insane.

00:15:25.920 I have a sister who's, you know, on the left side.

00:15:28.740 She doesn't like Trump.

00:15:29.760 She doesn't like his rhetoric.

00:15:30.840 She doesn't like his stance on abortion, whatever.

00:15:33.420 And, you know, we're talking about it.

00:15:34.600 I said, you know, do you ever talk to people when she works in corporate America?

00:15:36.760 Do you talk to people who work about it?

00:15:38.280 No, we can't talk about it.

00:15:39.340 I said, but, you know, do you guys talk about, like, the war in Ukraine or the war in Israel?

00:15:44.280 And she goes, yeah, well, we talk about that.

00:15:45.700 I said, well, that's political, so why can't you talk policy?

00:15:49.000 There's no, if you mention Donald Trump's name to a far-left Democrat, it's automatically he's a criminal.

00:15:56.640 And how do you have a conversation from there? 1.00

00:15:58.840 You know, he's a crook. 0.99

00:15:59.640 He's this, he's that, he's that. 0.99

00:16:01.420 There's no such thing as political discourse in this country anymore.

00:16:03.920 And I think it's extremely unhealthy.

00:16:05.680 And it's very unhealthy for these people who just can't seem to, listen, for us who had to deal with, you're nonpartisan.

00:16:11.160 But for us who had to deal with Obama, we hated it.

00:16:13.600 We dealt with it, you know, but we still had conversations.

00:16:16.160 There were normal conversations.

00:16:17.580 The same thing under George Bush.

00:16:19.040 There's something that sets these people off about Donald Trump.

00:16:22.100 I don't know if it's the alpha male complex, but it makes zero sense to me.

00:16:27.020 I want to go to a headline real quick from Politico talking about fake news.

00:16:32.880 Politico claims that J.D. Vance tries to tether Harris to the Biden-Harris administration.

00:16:39.920 Does that make any sense to you?

00:16:41.600 The Biden-Harris administration, are we not supposed to talk about their record of inflation, their record of gas prices, 0.99

00:16:48.640 their record of everything that's gone wrong in this damn country? 0.98

00:16:52.240 What are we supposed to do? 0.99

00:16:53.680 That article, I think, is the one that was community noted in one of the most beautiful community notes I've ever seen.

00:17:02.080 Elon and Twitter, I think he is trying to restore dialogue in this country.

00:17:06.260 And you can see that it was met as if it was some kind of virus attacking the host.

00:17:12.040 And I think there's a couple of things going on.

00:17:14.580 And I think clearly the media is the biggest culprit here.

00:17:17.820 And you can say, all right, well, they've been co-opted by something bigger.

00:17:21.120 And I think you're right there.

00:17:22.740 Sixty percent of voters think the media is the enemy of the people.

00:17:25.740 That number is not high enough.

00:17:27.800 I think they're preying upon people and filling vacuums there.

00:17:32.380 I think there's two things that are affecting the discourse in this country.

00:17:37.220 I think one of them is the willingness of the elite and the media class to attempt to change the rules of the game to win and stay in power.

00:17:45.420 And by that, I mean way through the game, that is.

00:17:48.660 Yeah, right.

00:17:49.580 They want to redefine what America is because we've always been about freedom and independence and discussion and First Amendment that they're changing that in a way that is killing discourse.

00:18:01.280 And I think that's one of the values our country was built on.

00:18:04.980 I think this goes into the platonic dialectic and this aspect of classical Western values that were was a part of our founding.

00:18:13.720 And another strong part of our founding is this Judeo-Christian tradition of that permeates every aspect of the way our country was built.

00:18:24.680 And I have some pretty fascinating numbers.

00:18:26.160 I haven't seen anybody talking about it all.

00:18:29.320 I think there's an aspect of religion to this in our big twenty six hundred person poll.

00:18:35.520 Donald Trump wins by thirty one points among evangelical Christians.

00:18:39.400 He wins seven points among Protestants.

00:18:42.900 He wins eleven among Catholic voters.

00:18:45.320 He's tied among Jewish voters in this poll.

00:18:47.620 Maybe it was a small sample, which is a disgrace, by the way, I should say it really is.

00:18:51.360 Yeah.

00:18:52.160 He wins even among Muslim voters. 0.89

00:18:55.120 Again, a small sample.

00:18:56.520 But where he loses is he loses massively among atheists.

00:19:01.600 Eighty three percent Harris to nine percent Trump.

00:19:04.560 And that is even bigger than Harris's lead among her own party voters.

00:19:09.360 And Trump also loses among everyone else.

00:19:13.240 Fifty eight percent to thirty four percent.

00:19:14.800 So that's agnostics, Wiccans, Satan worshipers, whatever.

00:19:18.000 But Donald Trump, everyone, Donald Trump is with everybody except people who say they rarely

00:19:24.160 or never attend church.

00:19:25.980 So I think the ask that humans are spiritual beings.

00:19:29.300 I think the left has supplanted religious dogma with political dogma in a way that has

00:19:36.060 not been healthy for the country.

00:19:37.400 You mentioned earlier in there the media distrust.

00:19:40.020 And I agree with you.

00:19:40.820 I was at Fox News with Lou for years and, you know, I witnessed firsthand how things were

00:19:46.540 done, how the higher ups in the company would try to push shows on how to do stories.

00:19:51.700 And to be fully full disclosure, Lou show never had that.

00:19:55.300 There was never anybody coming from the top down saying you're going to run this or you're 0.61

00:19:58.940 going to run that because Lou would look him right in the eye and say, go to hell. 0.95

00:20:01.520 It's my show. 0.99

00:20:02.360 Either fire me or I'm running my show.

00:20:04.260 And I think that's how it should be. 0.99

00:20:06.100 You know, for someone to go in there and take a paycheck and sell your soul, it's pathetic. 0.94

00:20:11.020 It really is sad because at the end of the day, it's money is money. 0.97

00:20:14.420 You know, you die with your heart and your soul.

00:20:16.960 The money doesn't die with you.

00:20:19.360 So the media dishonesty is and it's all of them.

00:20:22.860 It's Fox News.

00:20:23.620 It's CNN.

00:20:24.240 It's MSNBC.

00:20:25.360 And some are worse than others. 0.98

00:20:26.640 But across the board, it's like these people are criminals.

00:20:30.440 You know what the brainwashing and stuff that they're doing to America. 0.55

00:20:34.300 I mean, you look at the assassination temp on President Trump.

00:20:37.660 What part of the media did the media play in that to persuade this 20 year old kid to

00:20:42.960 go out there and want to shoot a president?

00:20:45.140 You know, it's truly disheartening what the media has done to this country.

00:20:48.640 There's no intellectual honesty or introspection.

00:20:52.160 I think the...

00:20:53.240 Well, because there's no accountability, Mark.

00:20:55.160 Yeah.

00:20:55.800 You know, I think the word, accountability is close.

00:20:58.500 I think the word is integrity.

00:21:00.160 Yeah.

00:21:00.620 And I think the drug everybody's on right now is a lack of integrity.

00:21:04.400 And there's a lot of different paths to having integrity.

00:21:07.860 Going to church and believing in a higher power and worship.

00:21:10.920 Joining the military.

00:21:11.960 The military instills integrity.

00:21:13.760 I went to a school that would have kicked me out if I lied once.

00:21:17.560 Yeah.

00:21:17.900 Can you imagine if our institutions, if our military institutions lose integrity like every

00:21:24.400 other institution in the country?

00:21:27.060 And that's what happens when you go get an MBA and go to the higher levels of Fortune 500

00:21:33.000 companies.

00:21:33.680 Right.

00:21:33.820 You have to please your boss.

00:21:36.460 And if your integrity is on the line, or if you have somebody from the DNC sending you

00:21:41.420 talking points every morning, where's your...

00:21:43.840 And nobody knows but you.

00:21:45.680 And once you sell it, it's really hard to get it back.

00:21:48.880 Yep.

00:21:49.080 And I don't know how to poll on it.

00:21:51.100 I'd love to figure out how to test people's integrity, but I'm open to ideas.

00:21:55.820 It's true. 0.99

00:21:56.200 It truly is pathetic. 0.98

00:21:57.260 But now I think, you know, you're seeing a big switch here. 0.97

00:22:00.340 And I think it's in the poll, showing in the polling too.

00:22:02.380 You know, back in 2016, I'll admit to you, I was nervous to wear my Trump hat around

00:22:06.700 my college campus because of what people were thinking of me.

00:22:09.340 Now, you know, I was on a flight last month to Europe, and a guy walks past me down the

00:22:15.320 aisle wearing a Make America Great Again hat on his way to France.

00:22:18.140 So, you know, I think that political landscape, as for that, is definitely transferring.

00:22:22.620 And people are proud to say that they stand with the America First candidate.

00:22:25.600 The other thing you mentioned is integrity.

00:22:27.160 And I used to joke with Lou all the time. 0.99

00:22:29.220 And I used to tell him, you have way too much integrity to be in this damn business. 0.99

00:22:34.040 You know, he always double-checked and triple-checked everything he did. 0.98

00:22:37.880 Any contract that was given to him, he read it six times.

00:22:40.760 Any, you know, advertisers, he always wanted to know everything that he was pushing, everything

00:22:45.660 that he was telling the audience, everything he was asking the audience to go buy or whatever.

00:22:50.100 Double, triple-checked.

00:22:51.100 And I used to tell him, Lou, you got way too much integrity.

00:22:53.100 But you know what?

00:22:54.100 It was something that he died with, and I think people see it.

00:22:58.580 We're going to take a quick break here, Mark.

00:23:00.200 When we return, I want to talk about Trump's pathway forward, how he wins this thing in

00:23:06.540 November.

00:23:07.540 And I want to get into independence and what they mean for either Kamala Harris or Donald

00:23:12.820 Trump come November 5th.

00:23:14.200 We're talking with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen.

00:23:16.080 We're coming right back.

00:23:16.900 Stay with us.

00:23:17.380 We're back.

00:23:24.020 We're talking with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen.

00:23:25.860 Mark, before we went to break, I went into independence.

00:23:29.840 A new poll out from economists in YouGov has Trump up five percentage points over Kamala

00:23:36.320 Harris among independents.

00:23:38.240 For the audience, can you tell us, if you will, what percentage of the voters in America

00:23:42.920 are independents and where they sit right now as it pertains to November 5th?

00:23:49.340 That question is definitely up for debate.

00:23:52.620 And it's one of the big levers that everybody's playing around with.

00:23:55.500 It's also one of the big levers where if you were trying to get a certain result in your

00:23:59.940 polling, one of the ones that you'd mess around with because you could hide some bodies

00:24:04.400 in there.

00:24:05.080 But independents are key because they're about one third of the electorate.

00:24:09.000 It depends on the election, depends on whether there's a president or it's off cycle.

00:24:12.920 A lot more people, in my opinion, are independents than they have been before.

00:24:17.760 And it doesn't necessarily always match the voter registration numbers.

00:24:22.060 Somebody might be registered Republican and they'd be totally sick with the establishment

00:24:26.000 and fall themselves independent in a poll.

00:24:28.680 One of the reasons that we differ is that we poll entirely likely voters.

00:24:33.700 So we are not starting with the registration file.

00:24:35.880 And we're not doing other things that people do, like trying to force them to lean with one

00:24:42.220 party or another.

00:24:43.680 We let independents be independents.

00:24:46.340 And because of that, when we do our party weightings, it might differ from other people's

00:24:50.140 polls.

00:24:51.040 But the way we poll, to be accurate, we think that independents are 32% of the electorate.

00:24:57.020 Democrats are 35.

00:24:58.560 Republicans are 33.

00:24:59.700 So independents are almost as big as Republicans there, and maybe even this time out, bigger.

00:25:05.820 And so that, I mean, we saw them going for Biden in our polling in 2020 by almost double

00:25:14.300 digits.

00:25:15.000 Right now, we have Trump winning independents in every single poll we've tested from five

00:25:20.920 to 20 points.

00:25:22.320 He's had polls where he's won by 20 points among independents.

00:25:25.100 Now, that might be different parts of the cycle, but what it comes down to is if Harris

00:25:30.980 wins every Democrat, and she only gets the 35%. 0.98

00:25:34.820 So she has to get a lot of independents. 1.00

00:25:39.260 And if Donald Trump wins a majority of the independents, if he wins a slim majority and

00:25:45.240 wins every Republican, that gets him to parity.

00:25:47.580 A big majority, the race is his. 1.00

00:25:49.600 But what is interesting about independents is how right they've shifted on every single

00:25:53.920 question on every single issue.

00:25:56.320 They hated Afghanistan.

00:25:57.720 They do not like the weaponization of the political system.

00:26:00.640 They hate what's happening in the border.

00:26:02.100 They give Republicans an advantage on every single issue, pretty much, except for like

00:26:06.880 abortion.

00:26:08.160 They are worried about the economy.

00:26:10.440 They trust Trump and the Republicans better on the economy by like double digits.

00:26:15.440 And what's wild is that you can look in real clear politics at every one of these other

00:26:19.240 mainstream polls, and they're showing Trump losing among independents.

00:26:22.980 And so if we're massively wrong, it will be because we got our independent polling incorrect.

00:26:30.000 But we were right in 2016, right in 2020.

00:26:32.800 And they've all shifted towards Trump.

00:26:35.940 The thing that's so interesting to me is how unlikable Kamala Harris is. 0.95

00:26:41.360 You can say what you want about Trump.

00:26:43.560 I've met the man many times.

00:26:45.160 He's in person.

00:26:45.880 He's the same person you get off camera.

00:26:49.100 Um, or maybe a little bit more fun in person. 0.91

00:26:52.840 Um, Kamala Harris is just a total phony. 1.00

00:26:56.160 And for anyone who doesn't see that, I guess you're blinded by it.

00:26:58.860 But, you know, the highest turnover rate, I think, of any vice president in history tells

00:27:04.120 you something.

00:27:04.740 She's, you know, you can't work for the woman. 1.00

00:27:06.680 She's, she's, you know, not a good boss. 1.00

00:27:10.240 Um, you know, for President Trump, like I said, I think he's, he's a human, he's a human

00:27:16.020 being, the way he speaks to the American people, the way he has the American people relate to

00:27:21.000 him.

00:27:21.380 Whereas Kamala Harris goes on camera and you get that cackling laugh.

00:27:25.180 That's just so absurd.

00:27:26.900 Um, I want to dive into some numbers here on how President Trump can win the big states,

00:27:33.160 Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, possibly we'll call it the three Pennsylvania,

00:27:39.340 Michigan, and Wisconsin as of right now.

00:27:41.620 And, you know, the problem I take with real clear politics averages is that they put in

00:27:46.120 these garbage polls that are just massive fluff polls where you'll have Harris up nationally

00:27:50.780 12 or 13 points. 0.95

00:27:52.500 Nobody believes that.

00:27:53.620 I, I, I'm sure you would agree with me on that, that if there's a 13 point race and we

00:27:58.300 have a bigger problem here.

00:27:59.520 So we'll go according to the real clear politics.

00:28:02.400 They've got a safe seat of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina for President Trump.

00:28:09.100 So leaving out Pennsylvania, assuming Harris wins, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan puts

00:28:15.060 the race at two 51 to two 68.

00:28:17.420 Pennsylvania puts Trump over the top.

00:28:19.840 If you were to win that, I don't have much faith.

00:28:23.320 In we were speaking before the, uh, the show in the voters in Pennsylvania, you said you

00:28:28.320 don't have much faith in the government of Pennsylvania.

00:28:31.300 What are some other paths forward?

00:28:33.060 If Trump were to lose Pennsylvania, um, let's talk New Hampshire.

00:28:38.460 The latest polling has Harris up five with a margin of error of 2.2 with New Hampshire puts

00:28:44.180 Trump over the top from two 68 over the top to two 72.

00:28:47.740 New Jersey is one that we've heard recently.

00:28:52.020 Uh, the latest polling out of New Jersey, uh, I saw had, uh, and that's from June.

00:28:56.880 It was Trump versus Biden.

00:28:57.900 It was Trump plus one.

00:29:00.020 You have now Kamala Harris, the last polling out of Virginia, the last three polls out actually

00:29:05.320 out of Virginia, Harris plus three with the margin of error of four and four and a half,

00:29:09.380 which carries 13 electoral votes.

00:29:12.620 Do you think there is any way forward for president Trump?

00:29:15.620 If he were to lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin?

00:29:20.680 Uh, I'm going to make a lot of generalizations here.

00:29:24.080 Um, but I think in my numbers in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia,

00:29:31.020 he's essentially tied within the margin of error in a massive poll that was taken literally

00:29:37.560 at the height of Kamala Harris's support.

00:29:40.240 Okay.

00:29:40.720 And not only that in three of those six States, I have numbers from 2020 and he's doing six

00:29:46.900 to seven points better than our polling had him doing in 2020.

00:29:50.920 So I think the big story is all of the state polling last cycle was like five to seven points

00:29:57.120 to Biden and everybody was totally surprised by how Trump turned out a massive amount of

00:30:03.580 people in the battlegrounds in a, in a national popular vote that was by far favoring Biden.

00:30:09.460 So I think there's a chance, and I'll tell you, I have not really shifted my weighting that

00:30:16.040 much since 2020.

00:30:18.660 I think there's a chance that he outperforms in every single one of these swing States versus

00:30:23.200 where I have him at now again, which is Todd.

00:30:25.940 And so I think his path is he's going to like, let's not even talk about New Hampshire.

00:30:31.960 Let's not talk about Virginia.

00:30:33.540 There's a chance that individual state differences, maybe young can getting in and doing a good

00:30:38.040 job or cleaning up his voter rolls.

00:30:39.620 Maybe those things will impact that state different.

00:30:42.440 Maybe people really hate Murphy and what he's done in New Jersey.

00:30:45.020 I don't know.

00:30:46.320 But my point is, I think he might run away with all six of the ones that matter when I

00:30:50.900 think he only needs like three.

00:30:52.240 So like, I think at this point, looking at my numbers, Georgia and Arizona are essentially

00:30:56.640 a done deal.

00:30:58.020 If you average all the Arizona numbers we've hit out since 2022, he's up like five to six

00:31:03.400 points, you know, tied in Michigan when all the polls lean left, not good for Harris up

00:31:10.320 to in Nevada when all the polls lean left, tied in Pennsylvania.

00:31:14.460 We have Trump up one in the two way in Pennsylvania, and that is doing six points better than Trump

00:31:20.020 did in 2020 in Pennsylvania.

00:31:21.860 So I would say everybody, here's the other thing to notice, go to real fair politics and

00:31:27.180 just count the number of state polls.

00:31:29.400 And I wouldn't even look at the polling out there.

00:31:31.320 There's just not enough of it.

00:31:32.740 And the polling companies, it's like they spent their entire cycles budget on June and

00:31:38.820 July.

00:31:39.740 They've put out hardly any polling at all.

00:31:42.040 A lot of the states only have like one or two polls.

00:31:44.360 They're really small.

00:31:45.540 I think Nevada was one of them, like 600 people from two places.

00:31:48.620 Maybe it was Minnesota.

00:31:50.260 Wait until more polling gets out.

00:31:52.660 We'll be back in hopefully multiple times before the end of the race.

00:31:57.000 Let's clear data from the DNC because, again, I think that this is an anomaly.

00:32:02.700 Trump was up one to five points at every swing state back in July against Biden.

00:32:06.160 I think she's going to get closer to where Biden's numbers are than gain any more from

00:32:09.940 here.

00:32:10.620 The thing that's appalling to me, and I mentioned to you this earlier, is people's, I should 1.00

00:32:18.300 say, no hesitancy of being wrong.

00:32:20.340 You would think these pollsters and these outlets like the New York Times and Economist

00:32:24.440 and YouGov and WAPO and everyone who does polling just want to be right.

00:32:29.100 We've learned from 2016 that a lot of these polls are incorrect and maybe on purpose, maybe

00:32:36.080 not on purpose as a way to to dissuade the voters from coming out and voting.

00:32:40.620 They're not fooling the voters anymore.

00:32:42.940 The Trump voters, I think, are the most enraged and, you know, patriotic voters we've seen

00:32:50.900 probably out of a presidential candidate in a long time, maybe since Ronald Reagan.

00:32:56.000 So why do you think that these pollsters are putting out these five, six, 12, 13 point

00:33:03.480 fluff polls for Kamala Harris?

00:33:05.360 What are they trying to do?

00:33:08.500 There's so much going on here, and I'll point fingers for sure, but you can never know.

00:33:14.060 People talk about transparency.

00:33:15.720 There is no amount of polling transparency that will make up for somebody who sold their

00:33:20.180 integrity.

00:33:20.860 They could give me the data, and I still wouldn't know if they collected it correctly from all

00:33:25.120 the right sources, right?

00:33:27.200 I think there are absolutely some crooked polling where they put their thumb on the scales and

00:33:33.280 maybe oversample this and that and don't tell anybody.

00:33:35.820 Then there's shifts in waiting where you like pull more Biden supporters from 2020 than you

00:33:41.940 did a week ago and don't tell anybody.

00:33:44.500 Then there's like literally New York Times, Siena came out and talks about how they think their

00:33:50.080 polls lean left and they're oversampling Biden people, and they've chosen not to correct

00:33:55.480 for it with 2020 recall vote because of all of these ivory tower reasons.

00:34:00.680 And then you have 538 taking their numbers and moving them even farther left.

00:34:05.780 And then finally, you have the press being Democrat cheerleaders in a way that I think the pollsters

00:34:11.980 can't control or are a victim to.

00:34:14.700 And then there's collusion.

00:34:15.660 The New York Times, Siena, I'm sure has been working with people to selectively drop polls

00:34:22.780 that were bad for Trump in very selected swing states when there was no polling going on in

00:34:28.580 the industry.

00:34:29.320 They literally stopped for like the first two weeks of August after a president was shot,

00:34:34.500 another one dropped out.

00:34:35.560 They picked a VP.

00:34:36.480 There was like no polling going on.

00:34:37.640 There's more polling going on in a random week in March than in the beginning of August.

00:34:41.840 So that one is corrupt as well.

00:34:44.000 And then the Fairleigh Dickinson poll that everybody's talking about, I think, is a really

00:34:47.540 good example.

00:34:48.320 Also, your viewers might not be familiar with that one, but this was an experimental poll

00:34:52.880 a college put out.

00:34:53.800 I don't know who the profs are, the students, whatever.

00:34:56.240 I mean, it was probably good work.

00:34:57.880 They did some great stuff where they asked men how masculine you are and then broke down

00:35:03.160 how people went for Trump by masculinity.

00:35:06.280 Fascinating.

00:35:06.800 I never thought to do that.

00:35:07.780 But then they also asked a 2024 matchup and showed that Trump was down, I think, maybe

00:35:13.160 a point.

00:35:13.740 OK, fair enough.

00:35:14.680 Right.

00:35:15.600 And then they asked some questions about race and gender and then asked the matchup again

00:35:21.660 and showed that when primed with race and gender questions, Donald Trump is now down seven

00:35:27.360 points.

00:35:27.960 Then the Hill came out and ran everywhere with the headline that Trump's losing by seven

00:35:32.220 points in the national poll.

00:35:33.780 And it went all over the place on Twitter.

00:35:36.300 And of course, nobody read the article.

00:35:37.720 And now everybody's yelling it fairly.

00:35:39.400 These poor people, they might not have.

00:35:41.740 So that's the environment we're in.

00:35:44.180 And it's because the press, corporate press, TM, is an arm of the Democrat party right now.

00:35:52.340 And they cannot stomach dissent.

00:35:55.220 That's why they kicked this out of 538.

00:35:57.180 And look at 538.

00:35:58.460 They're a prediction model.

00:35:59.940 Nate Silver is doing this, too.

00:36:01.060 I know he thinks he's doing it for the right reasons, but their model is supposed to correct

00:36:06.880 for biases.

00:36:08.680 So when you have multiple pollsters coming out and saying all the polling is leading to

00:36:12.860 left, and yet the RealClearPolitics aggregates like a point and a half, two points, Harris.

00:36:18.360 But then their prediction model is four points, Harris.

00:36:22.040 What are they correcting for?

00:36:25.000 They're going the wrong way.

00:36:26.580 So I think I'm constantly surprised every day by the lack of integrity, how corrupt things

00:36:32.920 are.

00:36:33.980 And I'm just here to say, like, we're putting out our numbers every night.

00:36:37.320 Jamal Harris had a bounce.

00:36:38.600 It wasn't big.

00:36:39.260 The DNC's over.

00:36:40.440 Trump's starting to inch back up.

00:36:42.100 And Trump is winning nationally.

00:36:44.400 But whatever, one to three points, call it, in our numbers.

00:36:47.920 But even if we're two or three points left, Trump's down one nationally.

00:36:51.340 Right.

00:36:52.060 That's a lot better than he was doing four years ago when he lost by only 116,000 votes

00:36:58.640 in four swing states.

00:36:59.900 Mark, I want to follow up with this final question.

00:37:03.080 It's probably a bad question to ask since we just got off a question of integrity and

00:37:06.740 being right and wrong.

00:37:07.980 But I will ask it this way.

00:37:09.760 If the election were held tomorrow, who wins and by what margin?

00:37:19.080 Yeah, good question.

00:37:20.420 Um, I would say if Trump wins half of the swing states he's tied in, I don't know.

00:37:27.860 I think we see high 200s.

00:37:30.280 You know, I think he's like 290, comfortable win, barring surprises, barring they actually

00:37:36.240 stopped counting the vote, barring Brett Barrett doesn't get involved in the elections.

00:37:42.200 And that's based on my Trump plus, you know, one or two.

00:37:46.400 Nate Silver's useful.

00:37:47.580 He put a nice little chart out that people can use as a slider.

00:37:51.000 What's the national popular vote?

00:37:52.520 And it says exactly.

00:37:53.800 And if Trump's doing like three or four points, which is where I think he returns to, I think

00:37:57.940 it was like 312 to, you know, whatever.

00:38:00.140 That's a that's a huge win.

00:38:02.500 And it's like, well, that makes sense.

00:38:04.140 If Trump's winning three to four points and he gets in the 300s, that's where Biden did

00:38:09.160 when he was winning by four points.

00:38:10.600 You know, Biden obviously got some help in California.

00:38:14.660 So it's yeah, that's a pretty clear race.

00:38:17.960 That's where I think we're going.

00:38:20.160 Subject to a jail sentence, subject to Biden being 25th, the resigning or having a health

00:38:26.600 emergency, subject to crazy things maybe happening in the debate.

00:38:31.440 They can move a lot.

00:38:32.520 They can move a little.

00:38:33.260 Who knows?

00:38:33.660 And I guess we'll soon find out on November 5th if states like Georgia, Brian Kemp down

00:38:39.840 in Georgia or Youngkin in Virginia and some of the other states like Arizona that are

00:38:44.520 run by the Democrats did enough, you know, to clean up their voter rolls and right the

00:38:50.540 wrongs of 2020.

00:38:52.800 You know, I was talking with somebody the other day about it.

00:38:55.340 I think it was Roger Stone.

00:38:57.120 You know, we're not going to have all those mail-in ballots that we had in 2020.

00:39:00.040 So I think we're going to see a far different election, but we'll find out hopefully on the

00:39:05.500 night of November 5th or the early morning of November 6th, right?

00:39:09.560 We'll see.

00:39:10.360 There are some hijinks.

00:39:11.860 I've had some really horrifying.

00:39:13.360 20% of all people in the swing states told me in 2020 they got at least one superfluous extra

00:39:19.520 mail-in ballot at their address.

00:39:21.380 28% of all mail-in ballot voters in 2020 said they committed at least one form of fraud.

00:39:25.760 And now, lately, the issue we've been having is in our polling, and no other pollster will

00:39:30.860 tell you this, we have people telling us that they voted in 2020.

00:39:34.300 They're going to vote again in 2024.

00:39:35.960 Oh, and by the way, they're not citizens.

00:39:38.060 Oh, my God.

00:39:39.280 So.

00:39:40.360 Unbelievable.

00:39:41.160 I mean, that's what you get.

00:39:42.740 That's what you get from the Biden in states like New York when illegal can go and get a

00:39:47.520 driver's license and car companies will insure them.

00:39:50.780 It makes no sense to me.

00:39:51.920 It's like we're living in a place.

00:39:52.620 We're finding these people in Ohio now.

00:39:54.080 Yeah, it's unbelievable.

00:39:55.040 Well, Mark Mitchell, you're doing a great job.

00:39:57.060 Thanks for all the great work you're doing.

00:39:59.080 Where could people find your daily tracking polls or follow your work?

00:40:03.720 Go to Twitter, Rasmussen underscore poll.

00:40:05.920 You can hit me up to Mark underscore R underscore Mitchell.

00:40:08.780 Mine are a little bit more of the hot takes and less of the numbers.

00:40:12.180 And also, we're at YouTube.

00:40:13.720 I go in depth into the numbers and look at the cross tabs.

00:40:17.640 And that's also Rasmussen underscore poll.

00:40:20.200 Thanks to Mark Mitchell.

00:40:21.160 And thank you all for being with us today.

00:40:22.680 Please be sure to join us right back here tomorrow for the Great America Show as our quest for truth, justice and the American way continues.

00:40:29.520 Our guest will be House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan.

00:40:32.420 He's going to break it down for us what he's got up his sleeve and what he's working on before November 5th.

00:40:36.920 Please join me for that tomorrow.

00:40:39.300 Please be sure to follow me on Twitter at John Fawcett NY.

00:40:42.220 That's John Fawcett NY.

00:40:43.860 And on Truth Social at John Fawcett.

00:40:46.100 Shoot me a tweet.

00:40:46.740 Let me know what you want to hear more of on this show.

00:40:48.280 You can also email us at info at Lou Dobbs dot com.

00:40:51.340 We'll see you back here tomorrow.

00:40:52.500 May God bless you.

00:40:53.740 May God bless America.

00:40:54.620 And may God bless the great Lou Dobbs.

The Great America Show - August 29, 2024

IS KAMALA REALLY POLLING AS WELL AS THEY SAY？

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