IS KAMALA REALLY POLLING AS WELL AS THEY SAY？
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Summary
After the Democratic National Convention, President Trump and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) are locked in a close race in the polls. Should we trust the results of the DNC or not? Pollster Mark Mitchell joins us to answer that question and more.
Transcript
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Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Great America Show.
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We're now just 67 days away from the 2024 election.
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So far, this election cycle, we've had an incumbent candidate be forced out of the race,
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a wildly popular independent candidate drop out of the race and throw his support behind
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a Republican, and hell, we even had a political candidate be indicted on criminal charges.
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So I don't think there's any argument to be had.
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This election cycle is the most historic in the nation's history.
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Just last week, we had the DNC wrap-up, and still we have no clarity from the Democrats
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We heard Donald Trump's name mentioned 300 times, 150 times on the first day alone.
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To me, that seems highly peculiar to have that name mentioned at the DNC convention of the
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Where was the messaging to the American people?
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What was the message that you were going to tell us that you were all going to fix everything?
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Inflation, gas prices, grocery costs, foreign policy.
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We do have two wars overseas that we are funding, but of course, there was none of that because
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So what is the polling telling us right now between President Trump and Kamala Harris?
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I want to bring in our guest today and get his take on it.
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First, I want to get your take on national polling numbers right now between Kamala Harris and
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And let me first say, I'm really happy to be here.
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We greatly respected Lou Dobbs at Raspusen Reports.
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And you could just tell that every pore of his being exudes complete and total honesty.
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And I think we need more of that in political discourse.
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But we polled, we released so much national polling last week, two very major polls, a
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2,600 U.S. likely voter poll that was done up until the first two days of the DNC.
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And in a direct two-way matchup, we had Donald Trump winning by two points, 48 percent, to
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And in a multi-way matchup, he was actually up three points, 47 to 44.
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And that might be a surprise to people, but Donald Trump is winning nationally.
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In the other poll we released a day later that he had data up on the third day of the
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DNC, we had Donald Trump up three points in a two-way and then two points in a three-way.
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So it's a two- to three-point race nationally for Donald Trump.
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We've also been doing nightly polling and releasing a chart on our Twitter feed that kind of tracks
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the race so you don't have to wait every Thursday for our numbers to drop.
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And what I can tell you is the last two days of the DNC and going into Friday, there were
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nights when Trump and Harris were tied in those individual nightly results.
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But after the RFK endorsement and then again on Monday night, Trump was up one point and
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So what it looks like to me is that Kamala Harris got maybe a mediocre bounce, nothing
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like what you'll see everywhere else in the polling industry, and that Donald Trump is
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returning about back to where he has been for the last couple of weeks, is up comfortably
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But I think the big point to talk about is all of those lists of just absolutely crazy
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political happenings, and it didn't really change our numbers that much at all.
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Now, it changed everybody else's numbers in the industry, but I'm here to tell you, we
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We aren't playing around with our regional targeting.
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And Trump was up four to five points by the end with Biden.
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Now he's up, you know, two to three points, but she is a better candidate in some ways
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She fogs the mirror, and that's a pretty critical thing.
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And I think we can all look around and say, you know, subject to maybe a black swan or two,
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this could be her high watermark, which would just be absolutely cataclysmic for Democrats
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because Donald Trump really didn't come anywhere close to being up in the national popular
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And I think historically he underperformed in the polls, as we all know.
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The truth of the matter is, I think, and you let me know if you disagree with me on this,
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You could have probably put the most hated man in America up, aside from Donald Trump,
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according to the Democrats, in place of Joe Biden.
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And there would have been this honeymoon period because there's excitement for a new candidate,
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you know, fresh blood or whatever you want to call it.
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Yeah, I mean, a lot of stuff happened all at once, and it's really tough to figure out
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what exactly was running through people's minds.
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And if you look at our polling going back all the way in 21 and 22 for a 2024 rematch,
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numbers were kind of big Trump lead, but all over the place.
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And what happens when you lead up into the final months of an election cycle is somewhere along
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the way, maybe at the end of the summer, maybe after something like the Supreme Court decision
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that happened in the 22 cycle, everybody just wakes up, starts paying attention to the news,
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And what happened after that debate is that the numbers just lasered in, weren't swinging
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And Democrats woke up big and they actually kind of rallied support around Biden.
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I think it was a reaction to like, oh, my God, Trump might win this.
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And they entered this mental state where it's like, OK, circle the wagons, blue no matter
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Don't care that we are calling people racist for the last 10 years when they talked about
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So it really is this kind of and again, like Trump was shot.
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It's hard to even show like exactly what event is affecting the numbers.
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And that's because it's like political Armageddon.
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I thought, you know, last year when we ousted Kevin, when Kevin McCarthy was ousted as
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Speaker of the House, that that was going to be the most crazy political scene we were
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Come to find out that just months later, we're going to have an incumbent candidate be pushed
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out of his position by whether it be the Speaker of the House or the Senate Majority Leader
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I mean, the political landscape we're in right now, I, you know, I often use this joke is
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Steve Harvey came out in front of a camera and told us we were all being punked for the
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last we'll go, you know, four or five years because we'll throw COVID in there as well.
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I would totally believe it because everything we're seeing right now is just wildly insane
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Yeah, it's hard to see what the calculus is when these events happen because an isolated
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individual event like the Kevin McCarthy thing will show up and us politicos will say, wow,
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It's only happened once in the country's history.
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And I will say that Kevin McCarthy was part of a larger nudge.
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They really what they didn't like was the chaos that was happening in the House and how
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those optics, in my opinion, piled up on top of the 2022 underperformance.
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People basically just thought, well, Republicans don't have their act together.
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And that was impacting Trump's numbers negatively and also fanning of Ron DeSantis's flame.
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So in that sort of February period, DeSantis was taking home maybe 50 percent of what Trump
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And then all of a sudden what shifted wasn't entirely just the indictment.
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It's also DeSantis declaring his presidential candidacy while the indictment happened on top
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of the fact that Biden ignored that big fire in East Palestine.
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His very favorable numbers went down 20 points among Republicans.
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He literally just did the wrong thing at the wrong time.
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I'm looking at that and I'm saying, well, that's big in a way that we haven't seen before.
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Because Martin, before you get into that, I want to take a quick break here because I
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do want to talk about that and go great into depth of that.
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I saw you tweeted something out before the RFK endorsement.
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You said something along the lines of you weren't sure if it was going to move the needle.
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And then I saw you tweet after the endorsement.
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You're like, well, holy crap, this may have moved the needle.
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I want to take that up on the other side of this break.
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We're coming right back with the leading pollster for Rasmussen, Mark Mitchell.
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We're talking with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Polling is their leading pollster.
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And Mark, right before we went to break, we were talking about that RFK tweet that you
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had put out that you said you weren't sure if the RFK endorsement was going to move the
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And I'm looking at the crosstabs and I say, well, RFK really doesn't have that much support.
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But the last couple of times we polled, he's been in three to five point range for him to
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come out with a three percent number and then say, like, listen, he's been a lifelong Democrat.
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But yet maybe he has an edge and more Republican voters would vote for him because I think the
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Republicans are the party of open mindedness right now and trying to fix the system.
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And so I looked at that mathematically and said, well, he's maybe Trump incrementally gets
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And I think a lot of people's analysis came out to a similar number as ours.
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I went through it in great detail on a YouTube video, but the number was like 0.5 to 0.7
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And then all of a sudden he had this speech that was just packed with unassailable data
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You will not see anybody try and fact check that.
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They can't allow that amount of cognitive dissonance inside the bubble.
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And not only that, the fact that he called Kamala Harris and she wouldn't pick up the phone
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in a speech that was talking about the lives and death of children in our country.
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And then to follow it up, he shows up at that campaign event with pyrotechnics.
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And not only that, there was even a little bit of palace intrigue, a little bit of leaks
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The entire thing was it was like some kind of produced event.
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And I don't think anybody could have predicted or expected the amount of optics that will
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Now, I will say the RNC was, I think, similar, the type of vibe that it created.
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But there might be some people on the fence that say, look at this Democrat.
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And that over the long term, I think, is going to give Trump probably more of a tailwind in
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a way that we probably won't be able to see in the numbers.
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You know, the interesting thing about the whole that you'd mentioned the disinformation
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around the whole RFK endorsement and you had the Democrats during the DNC, the final days
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when we were expecting the announcement from RFK, when that court document from Pennsylvania
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got leaked that he was pulling out of the ballot so he can endorse Trump.
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You had all these people on Twitter saying, well, like you said, he might not endorse him
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because he had a problem with Trump over Operation Warp Speed and not taking credit for the vaccines
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And then you had people come out saying RFK's wife, Cheryl Hines.
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For people who don't know Cheryl Hines, she's an actress, a Hollywood actress.
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And she was on, I think, one of the longest television shows in history, Curb Your Enthusiasm
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with Larry David, who's a known Marxist Democrat.
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So by him endorsing it, it puts his wife in this really peculiar place.
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And on Twitter, you'd say, you know, I don't think RFK is going to do it because of his wife.
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Now we hear from RFK in an interview with Tucker Carlson that his wife was actually the one
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So, you know, you just have disinformation after misinformation.
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You had the DNC saying Beyonce was coming to sort of, you know, block out, you know,
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And I, you know, could have never imagined that he'd come out there like a damn rock star.
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And, you know, I think even Trump looking at him coming out there and he's like,
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Trump's not oftenly starstruck, but Trump's looking at him like, what the hell is going on here?
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But I think, you know, to get back on topic here, you know, these Democrats who are now
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coming over to the side of Republicans, I think it says a lot about what they think about the
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establishment and what they think about Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
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And now you're also hearing that Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota, Tim Waltz's
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country, I should say, is open to maybe endorsing President Trump.
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Does it move the needle further than we've already seen it?
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Well, I think it's going to be a cumulative effect.
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I think if somebody asked me, like numerically, how will Tulsi Gabbard impact Trump's?
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We're going into the field to try and measure that now.
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And it's the cracking of this wall that I think the Democrats have built around the mentality
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And to have major defectors is an important thing.
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Like, I personally think there are some irrational and illogical things that are harming the country
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And I think, like Kennedy, a Democrat, that that needs to be corrected.
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And these kinds of challenges to their narrative, I think, are healthy.
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Because people should be talking to each other.
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People shouldn't be dismissing each other for being racist.
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And the right is obviously guilty of these things as well.
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But look at how they're embracing Kennedy right now.
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Already in my overnight numbers, Trump's up one, now two points.
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But these things are never, you know, it drifts with the timing.
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But Trump is now gaining the upper hand with momentum, for sure.
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Because you cannot argue or talk, have a normal conversation with someone about Donald Trump.
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There's something that sets off in these people's minds, Mark, that I don't know what it is.
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But it, like, loosens a bolt and they go insane.
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I have a sister who's, you know, on the left side.
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She doesn't like his stance on abortion, whatever.
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I said, you know, do you ever talk to people when she works in corporate America?
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I said, but, you know, do you guys talk about, like, the war in Ukraine or the war in Israel?
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I said, well, that's political, so why can't you talk policy?
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There's no, if you mention Donald Trump's name to a far-left Democrat, it's automatically he's a criminal.
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There's no such thing as political discourse in this country anymore.
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And it's very unhealthy for these people who just can't seem to, listen, for us who had to deal with, you're nonpartisan.
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But for us who had to deal with Obama, we hated it.
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We dealt with it, you know, but we still had conversations.
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There's something that sets these people off about Donald Trump.
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I don't know if it's the alpha male complex, but it makes zero sense to me.
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I want to go to a headline real quick from Politico talking about fake news.
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Politico claims that J.D. Vance tries to tether Harris to the Biden-Harris administration.
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The Biden-Harris administration, are we not supposed to talk about their record of inflation, their record of gas prices,
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their record of everything that's gone wrong in this damn country?
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That article, I think, is the one that was community noted in one of the most beautiful community notes I've ever seen.
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Elon and Twitter, I think he is trying to restore dialogue in this country.
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And you can see that it was met as if it was some kind of virus attacking the host.
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And I think there's a couple of things going on.
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And I think clearly the media is the biggest culprit here.
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And you can say, all right, well, they've been co-opted by something bigger.
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Sixty percent of voters think the media is the enemy of the people.
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I think they're preying upon people and filling vacuums there.
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I think there's two things that are affecting the discourse in this country.
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I think one of them is the willingness of the elite and the media class to attempt to change the rules of the game to win and stay in power.
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And by that, I mean way through the game, that is.
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They want to redefine what America is because we've always been about freedom and independence and discussion and First Amendment that they're changing that in a way that is killing discourse.
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And I think that's one of the values our country was built on.
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I think this goes into the platonic dialectic and this aspect of classical Western values that were was a part of our founding.
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And another strong part of our founding is this Judeo-Christian tradition of that permeates every aspect of the way our country was built.
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I think there's an aspect of religion to this in our big twenty six hundred person poll.
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Donald Trump wins by thirty one points among evangelical Christians.
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Maybe it was a small sample, which is a disgrace, by the way, I should say it really is.
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But where he loses is he loses massively among atheists.
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Eighty three percent Harris to nine percent Trump.
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And that is even bigger than Harris's lead among her own party voters.
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So that's agnostics, Wiccans, Satan worshipers, whatever.
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But Donald Trump, everyone, Donald Trump is with everybody except people who say they rarely
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So I think the ask that humans are spiritual beings.
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I think the left has supplanted religious dogma with political dogma in a way that has
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You mentioned earlier in there the media distrust.
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I was at Fox News with Lou for years and, you know, I witnessed firsthand how things were
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done, how the higher ups in the company would try to push shows on how to do stories.
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And to be fully full disclosure, Lou show never had that.
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There was never anybody coming from the top down saying you're going to run this or you're
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going to run that because Lou would look him right in the eye and say, go to hell.
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You know, for someone to go in there and take a paycheck and sell your soul, it's pathetic.
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It really is sad because at the end of the day, it's money is money.
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You know, you die with your heart and your soul.
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So the media dishonesty is and it's all of them.
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But across the board, it's like these people are criminals.
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You know what the brainwashing and stuff that they're doing to America.
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I mean, you look at the assassination temp on President Trump.
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What part of the media did the media play in that to persuade this 20 year old kid to
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You know, it's truly disheartening what the media has done to this country.
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There's no intellectual honesty or introspection.
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You know, I think the word, accountability is close.
00:21:00.620
And I think the drug everybody's on right now is a lack of integrity.
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And there's a lot of different paths to having integrity.
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Going to church and believing in a higher power and worship.
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I went to a school that would have kicked me out if I lied once.
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Can you imagine if our institutions, if our military institutions lose integrity like every
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And that's what happens when you go get an MBA and go to the higher levels of Fortune 500
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And if your integrity is on the line, or if you have somebody from the DNC sending you
00:21:45.680
And once you sell it, it's really hard to get it back.
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I'd love to figure out how to test people's integrity, but I'm open to ideas.
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But now I think, you know, you're seeing a big switch here.
00:22:00.340
And I think it's in the poll, showing in the polling too.
00:22:02.380
You know, back in 2016, I'll admit to you, I was nervous to wear my Trump hat around
00:22:06.700
my college campus because of what people were thinking of me.
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Now, you know, I was on a flight last month to Europe, and a guy walks past me down the
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aisle wearing a Make America Great Again hat on his way to France.
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So, you know, I think that political landscape, as for that, is definitely transferring.
00:22:22.620
And people are proud to say that they stand with the America First candidate.
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And I used to tell him, you have way too much integrity to be in this damn business.
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You know, he always double-checked and triple-checked everything he did.
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Any contract that was given to him, he read it six times.
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Any, you know, advertisers, he always wanted to know everything that he was pushing, everything
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that he was telling the audience, everything he was asking the audience to go buy or whatever.
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And I used to tell him, Lou, you got way too much integrity.
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It was something that he died with, and I think people see it.
00:23:00.200
When we return, I want to talk about Trump's pathway forward, how he wins this thing in
00:23:07.540
And I want to get into independence and what they mean for either Kamala Harris or Donald
00:23:25.860
Mark, before we went to break, I went into independence.
00:23:29.840
A new poll out from economists in YouGov has Trump up five percentage points over Kamala
00:23:38.240
For the audience, can you tell us, if you will, what percentage of the voters in America
00:23:42.920
are independents and where they sit right now as it pertains to November 5th?
00:23:52.620
And it's one of the big levers that everybody's playing around with.
00:23:55.500
It's also one of the big levers where if you were trying to get a certain result in your
00:23:59.940
polling, one of the ones that you'd mess around with because you could hide some bodies
00:24:05.080
But independents are key because they're about one third of the electorate.
00:24:09.000
It depends on the election, depends on whether there's a president or it's off cycle.
00:24:12.920
A lot more people, in my opinion, are independents than they have been before.
00:24:17.760
And it doesn't necessarily always match the voter registration numbers.
00:24:22.060
Somebody might be registered Republican and they'd be totally sick with the establishment
00:24:28.680
One of the reasons that we differ is that we poll entirely likely voters.
00:24:33.700
So we are not starting with the registration file.
00:24:35.880
And we're not doing other things that people do, like trying to force them to lean with one
00:24:46.340
And because of that, when we do our party weightings, it might differ from other people's
00:24:51.040
But the way we poll, to be accurate, we think that independents are 32% of the electorate.
00:24:59.700
So independents are almost as big as Republicans there, and maybe even this time out, bigger.
00:25:05.820
And so that, I mean, we saw them going for Biden in our polling in 2020 by almost double
00:25:15.000
Right now, we have Trump winning independents in every single poll we've tested from five
00:25:22.320
He's had polls where he's won by 20 points among independents.
00:25:25.100
Now, that might be different parts of the cycle, but what it comes down to is if Harris
00:25:30.980
wins every Democrat, and she only gets the 35%.
00:25:39.260
And if Donald Trump wins a majority of the independents, if he wins a slim majority and
00:25:45.240
wins every Republican, that gets him to parity.
00:25:49.600
But what is interesting about independents is how right they've shifted on every single
00:25:57.720
They do not like the weaponization of the political system.
00:26:02.100
They give Republicans an advantage on every single issue, pretty much, except for like
00:26:10.440
They trust Trump and the Republicans better on the economy by like double digits.
00:26:15.440
And what's wild is that you can look in real clear politics at every one of these other
00:26:19.240
mainstream polls, and they're showing Trump losing among independents.
00:26:22.980
And so if we're massively wrong, it will be because we got our independent polling incorrect.
00:26:35.940
The thing that's so interesting to me is how unlikable Kamala Harris is.
00:26:56.160
And for anyone who doesn't see that, I guess you're blinded by it.
00:26:58.860
But, you know, the highest turnover rate, I think, of any vice president in history tells
00:27:10.240
Um, you know, for President Trump, like I said, I think he's, he's a human, he's a human
00:27:16.020
being, the way he speaks to the American people, the way he has the American people relate to
00:27:21.380
Whereas Kamala Harris goes on camera and you get that cackling laugh.
00:27:26.900
Um, I want to dive into some numbers here on how President Trump can win the big states,
00:27:33.160
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, possibly we'll call it the three Pennsylvania,
00:27:41.620
And, you know, the problem I take with real clear politics averages is that they put in
00:27:46.120
these garbage polls that are just massive fluff polls where you'll have Harris up nationally
00:27:53.620
I, I, I'm sure you would agree with me on that, that if there's a 13 point race and we
00:27:59.520
So we'll go according to the real clear politics.
00:28:02.400
They've got a safe seat of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina for President Trump.
00:28:09.100
So leaving out Pennsylvania, assuming Harris wins, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan puts
00:28:19.840
If you were to win that, I don't have much faith.
00:28:23.320
In we were speaking before the, uh, the show in the voters in Pennsylvania, you said you
00:28:28.320
don't have much faith in the government of Pennsylvania.
00:28:33.060
If Trump were to lose Pennsylvania, um, let's talk New Hampshire.
00:28:38.460
The latest polling has Harris up five with a margin of error of 2.2 with New Hampshire puts
00:28:44.180
Trump over the top from two 68 over the top to two 72.
00:28:52.020
Uh, the latest polling out of New Jersey, uh, I saw had, uh, and that's from June.
00:29:00.020
You have now Kamala Harris, the last polling out of Virginia, the last three polls out actually
00:29:05.320
out of Virginia, Harris plus three with the margin of error of four and four and a half,
00:29:12.620
Do you think there is any way forward for president Trump?
00:29:15.620
If he were to lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin?
00:29:20.680
Uh, I'm going to make a lot of generalizations here.
00:29:24.080
Um, but I think in my numbers in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia,
00:29:31.020
he's essentially tied within the margin of error in a massive poll that was taken literally
00:29:40.720
And not only that in three of those six States, I have numbers from 2020 and he's doing six
00:29:46.900
to seven points better than our polling had him doing in 2020.
00:29:50.920
So I think the big story is all of the state polling last cycle was like five to seven points
00:29:57.120
to Biden and everybody was totally surprised by how Trump turned out a massive amount of
00:30:03.580
people in the battlegrounds in a, in a national popular vote that was by far favoring Biden.
00:30:09.460
So I think there's a chance, and I'll tell you, I have not really shifted my weighting that
00:30:18.660
I think there's a chance that he outperforms in every single one of these swing States versus
00:30:25.940
And so I think his path is he's going to like, let's not even talk about New Hampshire.
00:30:33.540
There's a chance that individual state differences, maybe young can getting in and doing a good
00:30:39.620
Maybe those things will impact that state different.
00:30:42.440
Maybe people really hate Murphy and what he's done in New Jersey.
00:30:46.320
But my point is, I think he might run away with all six of the ones that matter when I
00:30:52.240
So like, I think at this point, looking at my numbers, Georgia and Arizona are essentially
00:30:58.020
If you average all the Arizona numbers we've hit out since 2022, he's up like five to six
00:31:03.400
points, you know, tied in Michigan when all the polls lean left, not good for Harris up
00:31:10.320
to in Nevada when all the polls lean left, tied in Pennsylvania.
00:31:14.460
We have Trump up one in the two way in Pennsylvania, and that is doing six points better than Trump
00:31:21.860
So I would say everybody, here's the other thing to notice, go to real fair politics and
00:31:29.400
And I wouldn't even look at the polling out there.
00:31:32.740
And the polling companies, it's like they spent their entire cycles budget on June and
00:31:42.040
A lot of the states only have like one or two polls.
00:31:45.540
I think Nevada was one of them, like 600 people from two places.
00:31:52.660
We'll be back in hopefully multiple times before the end of the race.
00:31:57.000
Let's clear data from the DNC because, again, I think that this is an anomaly.
00:32:02.700
Trump was up one to five points at every swing state back in July against Biden.
00:32:06.160
I think she's going to get closer to where Biden's numbers are than gain any more from
00:32:10.620
The thing that's appalling to me, and I mentioned to you this earlier, is people's, I should
00:32:20.340
You would think these pollsters and these outlets like the New York Times and Economist
00:32:24.440
and YouGov and WAPO and everyone who does polling just want to be right.
00:32:29.100
We've learned from 2016 that a lot of these polls are incorrect and maybe on purpose, maybe
00:32:36.080
not on purpose as a way to to dissuade the voters from coming out and voting.
00:32:42.940
The Trump voters, I think, are the most enraged and, you know, patriotic voters we've seen
00:32:50.900
probably out of a presidential candidate in a long time, maybe since Ronald Reagan.
00:32:56.000
So why do you think that these pollsters are putting out these five, six, 12, 13 point
00:33:08.500
There's so much going on here, and I'll point fingers for sure, but you can never know.
00:33:15.720
There is no amount of polling transparency that will make up for somebody who sold their
00:33:20.860
They could give me the data, and I still wouldn't know if they collected it correctly from all
00:33:27.200
I think there are absolutely some crooked polling where they put their thumb on the scales and
00:33:33.280
maybe oversample this and that and don't tell anybody.
00:33:35.820
Then there's shifts in waiting where you like pull more Biden supporters from 2020 than you
00:33:44.500
Then there's like literally New York Times, Siena came out and talks about how they think their
00:33:50.080
polls lean left and they're oversampling Biden people, and they've chosen not to correct
00:33:55.480
for it with 2020 recall vote because of all of these ivory tower reasons.
00:34:00.680
And then you have 538 taking their numbers and moving them even farther left.
00:34:05.780
And then finally, you have the press being Democrat cheerleaders in a way that I think the pollsters
00:34:15.660
The New York Times, Siena, I'm sure has been working with people to selectively drop polls
00:34:22.780
that were bad for Trump in very selected swing states when there was no polling going on in
00:34:29.320
They literally stopped for like the first two weeks of August after a president was shot,
00:34:37.640
There's more polling going on in a random week in March than in the beginning of August.
00:34:44.000
And then the Fairleigh Dickinson poll that everybody's talking about, I think, is a really
00:34:48.320
Also, your viewers might not be familiar with that one, but this was an experimental poll
00:34:53.800
I don't know who the profs are, the students, whatever.
00:34:57.880
They did some great stuff where they asked men how masculine you are and then broke down
00:35:07.780
But then they also asked a 2024 matchup and showed that Trump was down, I think, maybe
00:35:15.600
And then they asked some questions about race and gender and then asked the matchup again
00:35:21.660
and showed that when primed with race and gender questions, Donald Trump is now down seven
00:35:27.960
Then the Hill came out and ran everywhere with the headline that Trump's losing by seven
00:35:44.180
And it's because the press, corporate press, TM, is an arm of the Democrat party right now.
00:36:01.060
I know he thinks he's doing it for the right reasons, but their model is supposed to correct
00:36:08.680
So when you have multiple pollsters coming out and saying all the polling is leading to
00:36:12.860
left, and yet the RealClearPolitics aggregates like a point and a half, two points, Harris.
00:36:18.360
But then their prediction model is four points, Harris.
00:36:26.580
So I think I'm constantly surprised every day by the lack of integrity, how corrupt things
00:36:33.980
And I'm just here to say, like, we're putting out our numbers every night.
00:36:44.400
But whatever, one to three points, call it, in our numbers.
00:36:47.920
But even if we're two or three points left, Trump's down one nationally.
00:36:52.060
That's a lot better than he was doing four years ago when he lost by only 116,000 votes
00:36:59.900
Mark, I want to follow up with this final question.
00:37:03.080
It's probably a bad question to ask since we just got off a question of integrity and
00:37:09.760
If the election were held tomorrow, who wins and by what margin?
00:37:20.420
Um, I would say if Trump wins half of the swing states he's tied in, I don't know.
00:37:30.280
You know, I think he's like 290, comfortable win, barring surprises, barring they actually
00:37:36.240
stopped counting the vote, barring Brett Barrett doesn't get involved in the elections.
00:37:42.200
And that's based on my Trump plus, you know, one or two.
00:37:47.580
He put a nice little chart out that people can use as a slider.
00:37:53.800
And if Trump's doing like three or four points, which is where I think he returns to, I think
00:38:04.140
If Trump's winning three to four points and he gets in the 300s, that's where Biden did
00:38:10.600
You know, Biden obviously got some help in California.
00:38:20.160
Subject to a jail sentence, subject to Biden being 25th, the resigning or having a health
00:38:26.600
emergency, subject to crazy things maybe happening in the debate.
00:38:33.660
And I guess we'll soon find out on November 5th if states like Georgia, Brian Kemp down
00:38:39.840
in Georgia or Youngkin in Virginia and some of the other states like Arizona that are
00:38:44.520
run by the Democrats did enough, you know, to clean up their voter rolls and right the
00:38:52.800
You know, I was talking with somebody the other day about it.
00:38:57.120
You know, we're not going to have all those mail-in ballots that we had in 2020.
00:39:00.040
So I think we're going to see a far different election, but we'll find out hopefully on the
00:39:05.500
night of November 5th or the early morning of November 6th, right?
00:39:13.360
20% of all people in the swing states told me in 2020 they got at least one superfluous extra
00:39:21.380
28% of all mail-in ballot voters in 2020 said they committed at least one form of fraud.
00:39:25.760
And now, lately, the issue we've been having is in our polling, and no other pollster will
00:39:30.860
tell you this, we have people telling us that they voted in 2020.
00:39:42.740
That's what you get from the Biden in states like New York when illegal can go and get a
00:39:47.520
driver's license and car companies will insure them.
00:39:59.080
Where could people find your daily tracking polls or follow your work?
00:40:05.920
You can hit me up to Mark underscore R underscore Mitchell.
00:40:08.780
Mine are a little bit more of the hot takes and less of the numbers.
00:40:13.720
I go in depth into the numbers and look at the cross tabs.
00:40:22.680
Please be sure to join us right back here tomorrow for the Great America Show as our quest for truth, justice and the American way continues.
00:40:29.520
Our guest will be House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan.
00:40:32.420
He's going to break it down for us what he's got up his sleeve and what he's working on before November 5th.
00:40:39.300
Please be sure to follow me on Twitter at John Fawcett NY.
00:40:46.740
Let me know what you want to hear more of on this show.
00:40:48.280
You can also email us at info at Lou Dobbs dot com.