The Great America Show - August 29, 2024


IS KAMALA REALLY POLLING AS WELL AS THEY SAY？


Episode Stats


Length

40 minutes

Words per minute

187.59923

Word count

7,681

Sentence count

540

Harmful content

Misogyny

9

sentences flagged

Hate speech

4

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

After the Democratic National Convention, President Trump and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) are locked in a close race in the polls. Should we trust the results of the DNC or not? Pollster Mark Mitchell joins us to answer that question and more.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Great America Show.
00:00:05.140 It's great to have you with us.
00:00:06.520 We're now just 67 days away from the 2024 election.
00:00:10.020 So far, this election cycle, we've had an incumbent candidate be forced out of the race,
00:00:14.740 a wildly popular independent candidate drop out of the race and throw his support behind
00:00:18.640 a Republican, and hell, we even had a political candidate be indicted on criminal charges.
00:00:23.200 So I don't think there's any argument to be had.
00:00:25.380 This election cycle is the most historic in the nation's history.
00:00:27.960 Just last week, we had the DNC wrap-up, and still we have no clarity from the Democrats
00:00:32.680 on their message to the American people.
00:00:34.940 What did we hear?
00:00:36.280 We heard Donald Trump's name mentioned 300 times, 150 times on the first day alone.
00:00:41.040 To me, that seems highly peculiar to have that name mentioned at the DNC convention of the
00:00:45.680 man you despise most.
00:00:47.800 Where was the messaging to the American people?
00:00:50.080 What was the message that you were going to tell us that you were all going to fix everything?
00:00:53.340 Inflation, gas prices, grocery costs, foreign policy.
00:00:56.880 We do have two wars overseas that we are funding, but of course, there was none of that because
00:01:01.460 the Democrats have no plan.
00:01:03.740 So what is the polling telling us right now between President Trump and Kamala Harris?
00:01:07.580 Should we even believe these polls?
00:01:09.280 Why are they so tight?
00:01:10.540 I want to bring in our guest today and get his take on it.
00:01:13.020 He's Mark Mitchell.
00:01:14.160 He's the leading pollster for Raspusen.
00:01:15.800 Mark, it's great to have you with us.
00:01:17.840 First, I want to get your take on national polling numbers right now between Kamala Harris and
00:01:23.560 President Donald J. Trump post-convention.
00:01:27.580 Absolutely.
00:01:28.380 And let me first say, I'm really happy to be here.
00:01:30.680 We greatly respected Lou Dobbs at Raspusen Reports.
00:01:34.120 I love honesty.
00:01:35.640 And you could just tell that every pore of his being exudes complete and total honesty.
00:01:42.140 And I think we need more of that in political discourse.
00:01:44.900 But we polled, we released so much national polling last week, two very major polls, a
00:01:50.920 2,600 U.S. likely voter poll that was done up until the first two days of the DNC.
00:01:57.320 And in a direct two-way matchup, we had Donald Trump winning by two points, 48 percent, to
00:02:04.360 Kamala Harris, 46 percent.
00:02:06.500 And in a multi-way matchup, he was actually up three points, 47 to 44.
00:02:11.800 And that might be a surprise to people, but Donald Trump is winning nationally.
00:02:17.640 In the other poll we released a day later that he had data up on the third day of the
00:02:22.660 DNC, we had Donald Trump up three points in a two-way and then two points in a three-way.
00:02:29.480 So it's a two- to three-point race nationally for Donald Trump.
00:02:33.840 We've also been doing nightly polling and releasing a chart on our Twitter feed that kind of tracks
00:02:38.380 the race so you don't have to wait every Thursday for our numbers to drop.
00:02:41.900 And what I can tell you is the last two days of the DNC and going into Friday, there were
00:02:47.380 nights when Trump and Harris were tied in those individual nightly results.
00:02:53.240 But after the RFK endorsement and then again on Monday night, Trump was up one point and
00:02:58.880 now two points in those national results.
00:03:02.380 So what it looks like to me is that Kamala Harris got maybe a mediocre bounce, nothing
00:03:08.060 like what you'll see everywhere else in the polling industry, and that Donald Trump is
00:03:12.520 returning about back to where he has been for the last couple of weeks, is up comfortably
00:03:18.920 two to three points.
00:03:20.340 Maybe we'll see four with the RFK endorsement.
00:03:22.420 I don't know.
00:03:22.980 I don't want to predict too much.
00:03:24.400 But I think the big point to talk about is all of those lists of just absolutely crazy
00:03:31.160 political happenings, and it didn't really change our numbers that much at all.
00:03:36.840 Now, it changed everybody else's numbers in the industry, but I'm here to tell you, we
00:03:40.480 didn't shift any of our weighting.
00:03:42.740 We didn't oversample Biden supporters.
00:03:44.780 We aren't playing around with our regional targeting.
00:03:47.760 And Trump was up four to five points by the end with Biden.
00:03:52.060 Now he's up, you know, two to three points, but she is a better candidate in some ways
00:03:57.400 than Joe Biden.
00:03:58.400 She fogs the mirror, and that's a pretty critical thing. 0.98
00:04:02.260 And so the race tightened.
00:04:03.660 And I think we can all look around and say, you know, subject to maybe a black swan or two,
00:04:09.740 this could be her high watermark, which would just be absolutely cataclysmic for Democrats
00:04:15.840 because Donald Trump really didn't come anywhere close to being up in the national popular
00:04:21.100 vote in the last two cycles.
00:04:23.100 And I think historically he underperformed in the polls, as we all know.
00:04:27.440 The truth of the matter is, I think, and you let me know if you disagree with me on this,
00:04:31.180 is that you could have put anybody up.
00:04:33.280 You could have probably put the most hated man in America up, aside from Donald Trump,
00:04:36.440 according to the Democrats, in place of Joe Biden.
00:04:39.060 And there would have been this honeymoon period because there's excitement for a new candidate,
00:04:43.260 you know, fresh blood or whatever you want to call it.
00:04:45.540 Is that what I'm reading?
00:04:46.860 Am I reading into that correctly?
00:04:48.020 Yeah, I mean, a lot of stuff happened all at once, and it's really tough to figure out
00:04:53.720 what exactly was running through people's minds.
00:04:56.180 I will say there's one additional factor.
00:04:58.580 And if you look at our polling going back all the way in 21 and 22 for a 2024 rematch,
00:05:04.500 numbers were kind of big Trump lead, but all over the place.
00:05:07.740 And what happens when you lead up into the final months of an election cycle is somewhere along
00:05:12.660 the way, maybe at the end of the summer, maybe after something like the Supreme Court decision
00:05:16.840 that happened in the 22 cycle, everybody just wakes up, starts paying attention to the news,
00:05:21.880 the advertising money gets put out there.
00:05:23.660 And what happened after that debate is that the numbers just lasered in, weren't swinging
00:05:29.840 around much anymore.
00:05:30.820 And Democrats woke up big and they actually kind of rallied support around Biden.
00:05:36.180 I think it was a reaction to like, oh, my God, Trump might win this.
00:05:40.460 I think that was probably the biggest result.
00:05:43.560 And they entered this mental state where it's like, OK, circle the wagons, blue no matter
00:05:49.720 who, sure will support a border wall now. 0.98
00:05:52.760 Don't care that we are calling people racist for the last 10 years when they talked about
00:05:56.500 border wall.
00:05:57.000 So it really is this kind of and again, like Trump was shot.
00:06:01.280 There was the RNC.
00:06:02.820 Biden dropped out.
00:06:04.060 You had Obama weigh in on the race.
00:06:06.240 Now you have RFK.
00:06:07.360 And it's moving the numbers, maybe a point.
00:06:09.280 It's hard to even show like exactly what event is affecting the numbers.
00:06:14.320 And that's because it's like political Armageddon.
00:06:17.480 Everybody's just choosing sides.
00:06:19.340 You know, it's funny, Mark.
00:06:20.060 I thought, you know, last year when we ousted Kevin, when Kevin McCarthy was ousted as
00:06:25.900 Speaker of the House, that that was going to be the most crazy political scene we were
00:06:29.320 going to see in a long time.
00:06:31.400 Come to find out that just months later, we're going to have an incumbent candidate be pushed
00:06:36.180 out of his position by whether it be the Speaker of the House or the Senate Majority Leader
00:06:40.020 Chuck Sumer or all of the above.
00:06:42.700 I mean, the political landscape we're in right now, I, you know, I often use this joke is
00:06:47.320 Steve Harvey came out in front of a camera and told us we were all being punked for the
00:06:50.960 last we'll go, you know, four or five years because we'll throw COVID in there as well.
00:06:55.400 I would totally believe it because everything we're seeing right now is just wildly insane
00:07:00.660 according to any person's standards.
00:07:05.500 Yeah, it's hard to see what the calculus is when these events happen because an isolated
00:07:11.180 individual event like the Kevin McCarthy thing will show up and us politicos will say, wow,
00:07:17.360 this is this has never happened.
00:07:18.440 It's only happened once in the country's history.
00:07:19.980 It's going to change everything.
00:07:21.080 And I will say that Kevin McCarthy was part of a larger nudge.
00:07:26.180 People mostly didn't know about him.
00:07:28.180 Republicans kind of liked him, kind of didn't.
00:07:30.060 They really what they didn't like was the chaos that was happening in the House and how
00:07:35.220 those optics, in my opinion, piled up on top of the 2022 underperformance.
00:07:40.920 People basically just thought, well, Republicans don't have their act together.
00:07:44.960 And that was impacting Trump's numbers negatively and also fanning of Ron DeSantis's flame.
00:07:52.120 So in that sort of February period, DeSantis was taking home maybe 50 percent of what Trump
00:07:58.160 was.
00:07:58.620 It was like 48 to 24, something like that.
00:08:01.320 And then all of a sudden what shifted wasn't entirely just the indictment.
00:08:07.320 It's also DeSantis declaring his presidential candidacy while the indictment happened on top
00:08:14.520 of the fact that Biden ignored that big fire in East Palestine.
00:08:18.600 Right.
00:08:18.700 All that happened at once.
00:08:20.100 And it's like, oh, Trump, it's Trump's to win.
00:08:22.480 The primary numbers immediately went Trump.
00:08:25.580 DeSantis, his favorability dropped.
00:08:27.220 His very favorable numbers went down 20 points among Republicans.
00:08:29.960 He didn't say anything bad.
00:08:31.400 He literally just did the wrong thing at the wrong time.
00:08:34.660 And it added up to.
00:08:35.820 So now look at Kennedy.
00:08:37.620 I'm looking at that and I'm saying, well, that's big in a way that we haven't seen before.
00:08:44.720 Because Martin, before you get into that, I want to take a quick break here because I
00:08:47.860 do want to talk about that and go great into depth of that.
00:08:50.620 I saw you tweeted something out before the RFK endorsement.
00:08:53.860 You said something along the lines of you weren't sure if it was going to move the needle.
00:08:57.140 And then I saw you tweet after the endorsement.
00:08:59.760 You're like, well, holy crap, this may have moved the needle.
00:09:02.160 I want to take that up on the other side of this break.
00:09:04.040 So let's take a quick break here.
00:09:05.100 We're coming right back with the leading pollster for Rasmussen, Mark Mitchell.
00:09:08.820 We're coming right back.
00:09:09.740 Stay with us.
00:09:15.980 We're back.
00:09:16.620 We're talking with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Polling is their leading pollster.
00:09:19.900 And Mark, right before we went to break, we were talking about that RFK tweet that you
00:09:24.100 had put out that you said you weren't sure if the RFK endorsement was going to move the
00:09:27.400 needle.
00:09:28.380 Now, a week later, what's your take on it?
00:09:32.040 Well, I'm a numbers guy and I'm a math person.
00:09:34.060 And I'm looking at the crosstabs and I say, well, RFK really doesn't have that much support.
00:09:38.680 He started in the low teens.
00:09:40.360 But the last couple of times we polled, he's been in three to five point range for him to
00:09:44.400 come out with a three percent number and then say, like, listen, he's been a lifelong Democrat.
00:09:48.780 He's got some really leftist policies.
00:09:52.360 But yet maybe he has an edge and more Republican voters would vote for him because I think the
00:09:58.260 Republicans are the party of open mindedness right now and trying to fix the system.
00:10:04.180 And so I looked at that mathematically and said, well, he's maybe Trump incrementally gets
00:10:07.960 like a half a point.
00:10:09.080 And I think a lot of people's analysis came out to a similar number as ours.
00:10:12.800 I went through it in great detail on a YouTube video, but the number was like 0.5 to 0.7
00:10:17.560 points.
00:10:18.760 And then all of a sudden he had this speech that was just packed with unassailable data
00:10:25.200 that the left could only run from.
00:10:27.860 You will not see anybody try and fact check that.
00:10:30.140 They can't allow that amount of cognitive dissonance inside the bubble.
00:10:34.560 They can't threaten the advertisers.
00:10:36.560 They can't threaten the worship of science.
00:10:40.080 And not only that, the fact that he called Kamala Harris and she wouldn't pick up the phone
00:10:46.020 in a speech that was talking about the lives and death of children in our country.
00:10:52.920 Right.
00:10:53.060 And then to follow it up, he shows up at that campaign event with pyrotechnics.
00:10:59.120 Like, I just I couldn't believe Friday it was.
00:11:01.180 And not only that, there was even a little bit of palace intrigue, a little bit of leaks
00:11:06.020 about maybe he's not going to endorse Trump.
00:11:08.020 The entire thing was it was like some kind of produced event.
00:11:11.340 And I don't think anybody could have predicted or expected the amount of optics that will
00:11:15.520 come out of that.
00:11:16.540 Now, I will say the RNC was, I think, similar, the type of vibe that it created.
00:11:21.740 And I think Scott Adams is correct.
00:11:23.260 This is a bit of a vibe election.
00:11:25.640 But there might be some people on the fence that say, look at this Democrat.
00:11:30.100 I remember JFK, systems corrupt.
00:11:33.940 And that over the long term, I think, is going to give Trump probably more of a tailwind in
00:11:39.300 a way that we probably won't be able to see in the numbers.
00:11:41.860 But it certainly isn't going to hurt him.
00:11:44.200 You know, the interesting thing about the whole that you'd mentioned the disinformation
00:11:47.660 around the whole RFK endorsement and you had the Democrats during the DNC, the final days
00:11:53.280 when we were expecting the announcement from RFK, when that court document from Pennsylvania
00:11:58.060 got leaked that he was pulling out of the ballot so he can endorse Trump.
00:12:01.560 You had all these people on Twitter saying, well, like you said, he might not endorse him
00:12:06.340 because he had a problem with Trump over Operation Warp Speed and not taking credit for the vaccines
00:12:10.840 and all that stuff.
00:12:11.900 And then you had people come out saying RFK's wife, Cheryl Hines.
00:12:16.700 For people who don't know Cheryl Hines, she's an actress, a Hollywood actress.
00:12:20.060 And she was on, I think, one of the longest television shows in history, Curb Your Enthusiasm
00:12:24.820 with Larry David, who's a known Marxist Democrat.
00:12:28.400 So by him endorsing it, it puts his wife in this really peculiar place.
00:12:33.260 And on Twitter, you'd say, you know, I don't think RFK is going to do it because of his wife.
00:12:37.040 Now we hear from RFK in an interview with Tucker Carlson that his wife was actually the one
00:12:42.520 who pushed him to take the meeting with Trump.
00:12:44.980 So, you know, you just have disinformation after misinformation.
00:12:49.660 You had the DNC saying Beyonce was coming to sort of, you know, block out, you know,
00:12:55.660 the light that RFK was going to.
00:12:57.340 And I, you know, could have never imagined that he'd come out there like a damn rock star.
00:13:01.920 And, you know, I think even Trump looking at him coming out there and he's like,
00:13:06.040 Trump's not oftenly starstruck, but Trump's looking at him like, what the hell is going on here?
00:13:10.360 But I think, you know, to get back on topic here, you know, these Democrats who are now
00:13:16.340 coming over to the side of Republicans, I think it says a lot about what they think about the
00:13:20.420 establishment and what they think about Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
00:13:23.780 You have Tulsi Gabbard also this week.
00:13:25.780 And now you're also hearing that Congressman Dean Phillips of Minnesota, Tim Waltz's
00:13:30.800 country, I should say, is open to maybe endorsing President Trump.
00:13:37.920 Do you expect we see more of this?
00:13:40.080 Does it move the needle further than we've already seen it?
00:13:44.040 Well, I think it's going to be a cumulative effect.
00:13:46.500 I think if somebody asked me, like numerically, how will Tulsi Gabbard impact Trump's?
00:13:51.380 We're going into the field to try and measure that now.
00:13:53.860 The answer is like, I don't know, 0.1%, right?
00:13:56.440 Who knows?
00:13:57.140 But it's the optics of momentum.
00:13:58.920 And it's the cracking of this wall that I think the Democrats have built around the mentality
00:14:07.580 of their movement.
00:14:08.780 It can't be challenged internally.
00:14:11.320 And to have major defectors is an important thing.
00:14:14.440 Like, I personally think there are some irrational and illogical things that are harming the country
00:14:19.920 in the psyche of the left.
00:14:22.200 And I could point to a million examples.
00:14:24.020 Our COVID polling is one of them.
00:14:25.500 And I think, like Kennedy, a Democrat, that that needs to be corrected.
00:14:30.760 And these kinds of challenges to their narrative, I think, are healthy.
00:14:35.300 Because people should be talking to each other.
00:14:37.260 People shouldn't be dismissing each other for being racist.
00:14:39.560 And the right is obviously guilty of these things as well.
00:14:43.120 But look at how they're embracing Kennedy right now.
00:14:45.460 So it's like, where will this momentum go?
00:14:47.480 I don't know.
00:14:47.920 Already in my overnight numbers, Trump's up one, now two points.
00:14:50.660 And it's like, that's where he was before.
00:14:53.440 But these things are never, you know, it drifts with the timing.
00:14:57.640 It drifts with response bias.
00:14:59.420 There's a whole lot of other things in play.
00:15:01.800 But Trump is now gaining the upper hand with momentum, for sure.
00:15:06.040 You know, you mentioned something interesting.
00:15:07.400 And it's something we don't have anymore.
00:15:08.660 And it's discussion.
00:15:09.840 There's no such thing as political discourse.
00:15:11.260 Because you cannot argue or talk, have a normal conversation with someone about Donald Trump.
00:15:17.360 There's something that sets off in these people's minds, Mark, that I don't know what it is.
00:15:22.400 But it, like, loosens a bolt and they go insane.
00:15:25.920 I have a sister who's, you know, on the left side.
00:15:28.740 She doesn't like Trump.
00:15:29.760 She doesn't like his rhetoric.
00:15:30.840 She doesn't like his stance on abortion, whatever.
00:15:33.420 And, you know, we're talking about it.
00:15:34.600 I said, you know, do you ever talk to people when she works in corporate America?
00:15:36.760 Do you talk to people who work about it?
00:15:38.280 No, we can't talk about it.
00:15:39.340 I said, but, you know, do you guys talk about, like, the war in Ukraine or the war in Israel?
00:15:44.280 And she goes, yeah, well, we talk about that.
00:15:45.700 I said, well, that's political, so why can't you talk policy?
00:15:49.000 There's no, if you mention Donald Trump's name to a far-left Democrat, it's automatically he's a criminal.
00:15:56.640 And how do you have a conversation from there?
00:15:58.840 You know, he's a crook.
00:15:59.640 He's this, he's that, he's that.
00:16:01.420 There's no such thing as political discourse in this country anymore.
00:16:03.920 And I think it's extremely unhealthy.
00:16:05.680 And it's very unhealthy for these people who just can't seem to, listen, for us who had to deal with, you're nonpartisan.
00:16:11.160 But for us who had to deal with Obama, we hated it.
00:16:13.600 We dealt with it, you know, but we still had conversations.
00:16:16.160 There were normal conversations.
00:16:17.580 The same thing under George Bush.
00:16:19.040 There's something that sets these people off about Donald Trump.
00:16:22.100 I don't know if it's the alpha male complex, but it makes zero sense to me.
00:16:27.020 I want to go to a headline real quick from Politico talking about fake news.
00:16:32.880 Politico claims that J.D. Vance tries to tether Harris to the Biden-Harris administration.
00:16:39.920 Does that make any sense to you?
00:16:41.600 The Biden-Harris administration, are we not supposed to talk about their record of inflation, their record of gas prices,
00:16:48.640 their record of everything that's gone wrong in this damn country?
00:16:52.240 What are we supposed to do?
00:16:53.680 That article, I think, is the one that was community noted in one of the most beautiful community notes I've ever seen.
00:17:02.080 Elon and Twitter, I think he is trying to restore dialogue in this country.
00:17:06.260 And you can see that it was met as if it was some kind of virus attacking the host.
00:17:12.040 And I think there's a couple of things going on.
00:17:14.580 And I think clearly the media is the biggest culprit here.
00:17:17.820 And you can say, all right, well, they've been co-opted by something bigger.
00:17:21.120 And I think you're right there.
00:17:22.740 Sixty percent of voters think the media is the enemy of the people.
00:17:25.740 That number is not high enough.
00:17:27.800 I think they're preying upon people and filling vacuums there.
00:17:32.380 I think there's two things that are affecting the discourse in this country.
00:17:37.220 I think one of them is the willingness of the elite and the media class to attempt to change the rules of the game to win and stay in power.
00:17:45.420 And by that, I mean way through the game, that is.
00:17:48.660 Yeah, right.
00:17:49.580 They want to redefine what America is because we've always been about freedom and independence and discussion and First Amendment that they're changing that in a way that is killing discourse.
00:18:01.280 And I think that's one of the values our country was built on.
00:18:04.980 I think this goes into the platonic dialectic and this aspect of classical Western values that were was a part of our founding.
00:18:13.720 And another strong part of our founding is this Judeo-Christian tradition of that permeates every aspect of the way our country was built.
00:18:24.680 And I have some pretty fascinating numbers.
00:18:26.160 I haven't seen anybody talking about it all.
00:18:29.320 I think there's an aspect of religion to this in our big twenty six hundred person poll.
00:18:35.520 Donald Trump wins by thirty one points among evangelical Christians.
00:18:39.400 He wins seven points among Protestants.
00:18:42.900 He wins eleven among Catholic voters.
00:18:45.320 He's tied among Jewish voters in this poll.
00:18:47.620 Maybe it was a small sample, which is a disgrace, by the way, I should say it really is.
00:18:51.360 Yeah.
00:18:52.160 He wins even among Muslim voters. 0.89
00:18:55.120 Again, a small sample.
00:18:56.520 But where he loses is he loses massively among atheists.
00:19:01.600 Eighty three percent Harris to nine percent Trump.
00:19:04.560 And that is even bigger than Harris's lead among her own party voters.
00:19:09.360 And Trump also loses among everyone else.
00:19:13.240 Fifty eight percent to thirty four percent.
00:19:14.800 So that's agnostics, Wiccans, Satan worshipers, whatever.
00:19:18.000 But Donald Trump, everyone, Donald Trump is with everybody except people who say they rarely
00:19:24.160 or never attend church.
00:19:25.980 So I think the ask that humans are spiritual beings.
00:19:29.300 I think the left has supplanted religious dogma with political dogma in a way that has
00:19:36.060 not been healthy for the country.
00:19:37.400 You mentioned earlier in there the media distrust.
00:19:40.020 And I agree with you.
00:19:40.820 I was at Fox News with Lou for years and, you know, I witnessed firsthand how things were
00:19:46.540 done, how the higher ups in the company would try to push shows on how to do stories.
00:19:51.700 And to be fully full disclosure, Lou show never had that.
00:19:55.300 There was never anybody coming from the top down saying you're going to run this or you're
00:19:58.940 going to run that because Lou would look him right in the eye and say, go to hell. 0.94
00:20:01.520 It's my show.
00:20:02.360 Either fire me or I'm running my show.
00:20:04.260 And I think that's how it should be.
00:20:06.100 You know, for someone to go in there and take a paycheck and sell your soul, it's pathetic.
00:20:11.020 It really is sad because at the end of the day, it's money is money.
00:20:14.420 You know, you die with your heart and your soul.
00:20:16.960 The money doesn't die with you.
00:20:19.360 So the media dishonesty is and it's all of them.
00:20:22.860 It's Fox News.
00:20:23.620 It's CNN.
00:20:24.240 It's MSNBC.
00:20:25.360 And some are worse than others.
00:20:26.640 But across the board, it's like these people are criminals.
00:20:30.440 You know what the brainwashing and stuff that they're doing to America.
00:20:34.300 I mean, you look at the assassination temp on President Trump.
00:20:37.660 What part of the media did the media play in that to persuade this 20 year old kid to
00:20:42.960 go out there and want to shoot a president?
00:20:45.140 You know, it's truly disheartening what the media has done to this country.
00:20:48.640 There's no intellectual honesty or introspection.
00:20:52.160 I think the...
00:20:53.240 Well, because there's no accountability, Mark.
00:20:55.160 Yeah.
00:20:55.800 You know, I think the word, accountability is close.
00:20:58.500 I think the word is integrity.
00:21:00.160 Yeah.
00:21:00.620 And I think the drug everybody's on right now is a lack of integrity.
00:21:04.400 And there's a lot of different paths to having integrity.
00:21:07.860 Going to church and believing in a higher power and worship.
00:21:10.920 Joining the military.
00:21:11.960 The military instills integrity.
00:21:13.760 I went to a school that would have kicked me out if I lied once.
00:21:17.560 Yeah.
00:21:17.900 Can you imagine if our institutions, if our military institutions lose integrity like every
00:21:24.400 other institution in the country?
00:21:27.060 And that's what happens when you go get an MBA and go to the higher levels of Fortune 500
00:21:33.000 companies.
00:21:33.680 Right.
00:21:33.820 You have to please your boss.
00:21:36.460 And if your integrity is on the line, or if you have somebody from the DNC sending you
00:21:41.420 talking points every morning, where's your...
00:21:43.840 And nobody knows but you.
00:21:45.680 And once you sell it, it's really hard to get it back.
00:21:48.880 Yep.
00:21:49.080 And I don't know how to poll on it.
00:21:51.100 I'd love to figure out how to test people's integrity, but I'm open to ideas.
00:21:55.820 It's true.
00:21:56.200 It truly is pathetic.
00:21:57.260 But now I think, you know, you're seeing a big switch here.
00:22:00.340 And I think it's in the poll, showing in the polling too.
00:22:02.380 You know, back in 2016, I'll admit to you, I was nervous to wear my Trump hat around
00:22:06.700 my college campus because of what people were thinking of me.
00:22:09.340 Now, you know, I was on a flight last month to Europe, and a guy walks past me down the
00:22:15.320 aisle wearing a Make America Great Again hat on his way to France.
00:22:18.140 So, you know, I think that political landscape, as for that, is definitely transferring.
00:22:22.620 And people are proud to say that they stand with the America First candidate.
00:22:25.600 The other thing you mentioned is integrity.
00:22:27.160 And I used to joke with Lou all the time.
00:22:29.220 And I used to tell him, you have way too much integrity to be in this damn business.
00:22:34.040 You know, he always double-checked and triple-checked everything he did.
00:22:37.880 Any contract that was given to him, he read it six times.
00:22:40.760 Any, you know, advertisers, he always wanted to know everything that he was pushing, everything
00:22:45.660 that he was telling the audience, everything he was asking the audience to go buy or whatever.
00:22:50.100 Double, triple-checked.
00:22:51.100 And I used to tell him, Lou, you got way too much integrity.
00:22:53.100 But you know what?
00:22:54.100 It was something that he died with, and I think people see it.
00:22:58.580 We're going to take a quick break here, Mark.
00:23:00.200 When we return, I want to talk about Trump's pathway forward, how he wins this thing in
00:23:06.540 November.
00:23:07.540 And I want to get into independence and what they mean for either Kamala Harris or Donald
00:23:12.820 Trump come November 5th.
00:23:14.200 We're talking with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen.
00:23:16.080 We're coming right back.
00:23:16.900 Stay with us.
00:23:17.380 We're back.
00:23:24.020 We're talking with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen.
00:23:25.860 Mark, before we went to break, I went into independence.
00:23:29.840 A new poll out from economists in YouGov has Trump up five percentage points over Kamala
00:23:36.320 Harris among independents.
00:23:38.240 For the audience, can you tell us, if you will, what percentage of the voters in America
00:23:42.920 are independents and where they sit right now as it pertains to November 5th?
00:23:49.340 That question is definitely up for debate.
00:23:52.620 And it's one of the big levers that everybody's playing around with.
00:23:55.500 It's also one of the big levers where if you were trying to get a certain result in your
00:23:59.940 polling, one of the ones that you'd mess around with because you could hide some bodies
00:24:04.400 in there.
00:24:05.080 But independents are key because they're about one third of the electorate.
00:24:09.000 It depends on the election, depends on whether there's a president or it's off cycle.
00:24:12.920 A lot more people, in my opinion, are independents than they have been before.
00:24:17.760 And it doesn't necessarily always match the voter registration numbers.
00:24:22.060 Somebody might be registered Republican and they'd be totally sick with the establishment
00:24:26.000 and fall themselves independent in a poll.
00:24:28.680 One of the reasons that we differ is that we poll entirely likely voters.
00:24:33.700 So we are not starting with the registration file.
00:24:35.880 And we're not doing other things that people do, like trying to force them to lean with one
00:24:42.220 party or another.
00:24:43.680 We let independents be independents.
00:24:46.340 And because of that, when we do our party weightings, it might differ from other people's
00:24:50.140 polls.
00:24:51.040 But the way we poll, to be accurate, we think that independents are 32% of the electorate.
00:24:57.020 Democrats are 35.
00:24:58.560 Republicans are 33.
00:24:59.700 So independents are almost as big as Republicans there, and maybe even this time out, bigger.
00:25:05.820 And so that, I mean, we saw them going for Biden in our polling in 2020 by almost double
00:25:14.300 digits.
00:25:15.000 Right now, we have Trump winning independents in every single poll we've tested from five
00:25:20.920 to 20 points.
00:25:22.320 He's had polls where he's won by 20 points among independents.
00:25:25.100 Now, that might be different parts of the cycle, but what it comes down to is if Harris
00:25:30.980 wins every Democrat, and she only gets the 35%. 0.98
00:25:34.820 So she has to get a lot of independents. 1.00
00:25:39.260 And if Donald Trump wins a majority of the independents, if he wins a slim majority and
00:25:45.240 wins every Republican, that gets him to parity.
00:25:47.580 A big majority, the race is his. 1.00
00:25:49.600 But what is interesting about independents is how right they've shifted on every single
00:25:53.920 question on every single issue.
00:25:56.320 They hated Afghanistan.
00:25:57.720 They do not like the weaponization of the political system.
00:26:00.640 They hate what's happening in the border.
00:26:02.100 They give Republicans an advantage on every single issue, pretty much, except for like
00:26:06.880 abortion.
00:26:08.160 They are worried about the economy.
00:26:10.440 They trust Trump and the Republicans better on the economy by like double digits.
00:26:15.440 And what's wild is that you can look in real clear politics at every one of these other
00:26:19.240 mainstream polls, and they're showing Trump losing among independents.
00:26:22.980 And so if we're massively wrong, it will be because we got our independent polling incorrect.
00:26:30.000 But we were right in 2016, right in 2020.
00:26:32.800 And they've all shifted towards Trump.
00:26:35.940 The thing that's so interesting to me is how unlikable Kamala Harris is. 0.95
00:26:41.360 You can say what you want about Trump.
00:26:43.560 I've met the man many times.
00:26:45.160 He's in person.
00:26:45.880 He's the same person you get off camera.
00:26:49.100 Um, or maybe a little bit more fun in person.
00:26:52.840 Um, Kamala Harris is just a total phony. 1.00
00:26:56.160 And for anyone who doesn't see that, I guess you're blinded by it.
00:26:58.860 But, you know, the highest turnover rate, I think, of any vice president in history tells
00:27:04.120 you something.
00:27:04.740 She's, you know, you can't work for the woman. 1.00
00:27:06.680 She's, she's, you know, not a good boss. 1.00
00:27:10.240 Um, you know, for President Trump, like I said, I think he's, he's a human, he's a human
00:27:16.020 being, the way he speaks to the American people, the way he has the American people relate to
00:27:21.000 him.
00:27:21.380 Whereas Kamala Harris goes on camera and you get that cackling laugh.
00:27:25.180 That's just so absurd.
00:27:26.900 Um, I want to dive into some numbers here on how President Trump can win the big states,
00:27:33.160 Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, possibly we'll call it the three Pennsylvania,
00:27:39.340 Michigan, and Wisconsin as of right now.
00:27:41.620 And, you know, the problem I take with real clear politics averages is that they put in
00:27:46.120 these garbage polls that are just massive fluff polls where you'll have Harris up nationally
00:27:50.780 12 or 13 points.
00:27:52.500 Nobody believes that.
00:27:53.620 I, I, I'm sure you would agree with me on that, that if there's a 13 point race and we
00:27:58.300 have a bigger problem here.
00:27:59.520 So we'll go according to the real clear politics.
00:28:02.400 They've got a safe seat of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina for President Trump.
00:28:09.100 So leaving out Pennsylvania, assuming Harris wins, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan puts
00:28:15.060 the race at two 51 to two 68.
00:28:17.420 Pennsylvania puts Trump over the top.
00:28:19.840 If you were to win that, I don't have much faith.
00:28:23.320 In we were speaking before the, uh, the show in the voters in Pennsylvania, you said you
00:28:28.320 don't have much faith in the government of Pennsylvania.
00:28:31.300 What are some other paths forward?
00:28:33.060 If Trump were to lose Pennsylvania, um, let's talk New Hampshire.
00:28:38.460 The latest polling has Harris up five with a margin of error of 2.2 with New Hampshire puts
00:28:44.180 Trump over the top from two 68 over the top to two 72.
00:28:47.740 New Jersey is one that we've heard recently.
00:28:52.020 Uh, the latest polling out of New Jersey, uh, I saw had, uh, and that's from June.
00:28:56.880 It was Trump versus Biden.
00:28:57.900 It was Trump plus one.
00:29:00.020 You have now Kamala Harris, the last polling out of Virginia, the last three polls out actually
00:29:05.320 out of Virginia, Harris plus three with the margin of error of four and four and a half,
00:29:09.380 which carries 13 electoral votes.
00:29:12.620 Do you think there is any way forward for president Trump?
00:29:15.620 If he were to lose Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin?
00:29:20.680 Uh, I'm going to make a lot of generalizations here.
00:29:24.080 Um, but I think in my numbers in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia,
00:29:31.020 he's essentially tied within the margin of error in a massive poll that was taken literally
00:29:37.560 at the height of Kamala Harris's support.
00:29:40.240 Okay.
00:29:40.720 And not only that in three of those six States, I have numbers from 2020 and he's doing six
00:29:46.900 to seven points better than our polling had him doing in 2020.
00:29:50.920 So I think the big story is all of the state polling last cycle was like five to seven points
00:29:57.120 to Biden and everybody was totally surprised by how Trump turned out a massive amount of
00:30:03.580 people in the battlegrounds in a, in a national popular vote that was by far favoring Biden.
00:30:09.460 So I think there's a chance, and I'll tell you, I have not really shifted my weighting that
00:30:16.040 much since 2020.
00:30:18.660 I think there's a chance that he outperforms in every single one of these swing States versus
00:30:23.200 where I have him at now again, which is Todd.
00:30:25.940 And so I think his path is he's going to like, let's not even talk about New Hampshire.
00:30:31.960 Let's not talk about Virginia.
00:30:33.540 There's a chance that individual state differences, maybe young can getting in and doing a good
00:30:38.040 job or cleaning up his voter rolls.
00:30:39.620 Maybe those things will impact that state different.
00:30:42.440 Maybe people really hate Murphy and what he's done in New Jersey.
00:30:45.020 I don't know.
00:30:46.320 But my point is, I think he might run away with all six of the ones that matter when I
00:30:50.900 think he only needs like three.
00:30:52.240 So like, I think at this point, looking at my numbers, Georgia and Arizona are essentially
00:30:56.640 a done deal.
00:30:58.020 If you average all the Arizona numbers we've hit out since 2022, he's up like five to six
00:31:03.400 points, you know, tied in Michigan when all the polls lean left, not good for Harris up
00:31:10.320 to in Nevada when all the polls lean left, tied in Pennsylvania.
00:31:14.460 We have Trump up one in the two way in Pennsylvania, and that is doing six points better than Trump
00:31:20.020 did in 2020 in Pennsylvania.
00:31:21.860 So I would say everybody, here's the other thing to notice, go to real fair politics and
00:31:27.180 just count the number of state polls.
00:31:29.400 And I wouldn't even look at the polling out there.
00:31:31.320 There's just not enough of it.
00:31:32.740 And the polling companies, it's like they spent their entire cycles budget on June and
00:31:38.820 July.
00:31:39.740 They've put out hardly any polling at all.
00:31:42.040 A lot of the states only have like one or two polls.
00:31:44.360 They're really small.
00:31:45.540 I think Nevada was one of them, like 600 people from two places.
00:31:48.620 Maybe it was Minnesota.
00:31:50.260 Wait until more polling gets out.
00:31:52.660 We'll be back in hopefully multiple times before the end of the race.
00:31:57.000 Let's clear data from the DNC because, again, I think that this is an anomaly.
00:32:02.700 Trump was up one to five points at every swing state back in July against Biden.
00:32:06.160 I think she's going to get closer to where Biden's numbers are than gain any more from
00:32:09.940 here.
00:32:10.620 The thing that's appalling to me, and I mentioned to you this earlier, is people's, I should 1.00
00:32:18.300 say, no hesitancy of being wrong.
00:32:20.340 You would think these pollsters and these outlets like the New York Times and Economist
00:32:24.440 and YouGov and WAPO and everyone who does polling just want to be right.
00:32:29.100 We've learned from 2016 that a lot of these polls are incorrect and maybe on purpose, maybe
00:32:36.080 not on purpose as a way to to dissuade the voters from coming out and voting.
00:32:40.620 They're not fooling the voters anymore.
00:32:42.940 The Trump voters, I think, are the most enraged and, you know, patriotic voters we've seen
00:32:50.900 probably out of a presidential candidate in a long time, maybe since Ronald Reagan.
00:32:56.000 So why do you think that these pollsters are putting out these five, six, 12, 13 point
00:33:03.480 fluff polls for Kamala Harris?
00:33:05.360 What are they trying to do?
00:33:08.500 There's so much going on here, and I'll point fingers for sure, but you can never know.
00:33:14.060 People talk about transparency.
00:33:15.720 There is no amount of polling transparency that will make up for somebody who sold their
00:33:20.180 integrity.
00:33:20.860 They could give me the data, and I still wouldn't know if they collected it correctly from all
00:33:25.120 the right sources, right?
00:33:27.200 I think there are absolutely some crooked polling where they put their thumb on the scales and
00:33:33.280 maybe oversample this and that and don't tell anybody.
00:33:35.820 Then there's shifts in waiting where you like pull more Biden supporters from 2020 than you
00:33:41.940 did a week ago and don't tell anybody.
00:33:44.500 Then there's like literally New York Times, Siena came out and talks about how they think their
00:33:50.080 polls lean left and they're oversampling Biden people, and they've chosen not to correct
00:33:55.480 for it with 2020 recall vote because of all of these ivory tower reasons.
00:34:00.680 And then you have 538 taking their numbers and moving them even farther left.
00:34:05.780 And then finally, you have the press being Democrat cheerleaders in a way that I think the pollsters
00:34:11.980 can't control or are a victim to.
00:34:14.700 And then there's collusion.
00:34:15.660 The New York Times, Siena, I'm sure has been working with people to selectively drop polls
00:34:22.780 that were bad for Trump in very selected swing states when there was no polling going on in
00:34:28.580 the industry.
00:34:29.320 They literally stopped for like the first two weeks of August after a president was shot,
00:34:34.500 another one dropped out.
00:34:35.560 They picked a VP.
00:34:36.480 There was like no polling going on.
00:34:37.640 There's more polling going on in a random week in March than in the beginning of August.
00:34:41.840 So that one is corrupt as well.
00:34:44.000 And then the Fairleigh Dickinson poll that everybody's talking about, I think, is a really
00:34:47.540 good example.
00:34:48.320 Also, your viewers might not be familiar with that one, but this was an experimental poll
00:34:52.880 a college put out.
00:34:53.800 I don't know who the profs are, the students, whatever.
00:34:56.240 I mean, it was probably good work.
00:34:57.880 They did some great stuff where they asked men how masculine you are and then broke down
00:35:03.160 how people went for Trump by masculinity.
00:35:06.280 Fascinating.
00:35:06.800 I never thought to do that.
00:35:07.780 But then they also asked a 2024 matchup and showed that Trump was down, I think, maybe
00:35:13.160 a point.
00:35:13.740 OK, fair enough.
00:35:14.680 Right.
00:35:15.600 And then they asked some questions about race and gender and then asked the matchup again
00:35:21.660 and showed that when primed with race and gender questions, Donald Trump is now down seven
00:35:27.360 points.
00:35:27.960 Then the Hill came out and ran everywhere with the headline that Trump's losing by seven
00:35:32.220 points in the national poll.
00:35:33.780 And it went all over the place on Twitter.
00:35:36.300 And of course, nobody read the article.
00:35:37.720 And now everybody's yelling it fairly.
00:35:39.400 These poor people, they might not have.
00:35:41.740 So that's the environment we're in.
00:35:44.180 And it's because the press, corporate press, TM, is an arm of the Democrat party right now.
00:35:52.340 And they cannot stomach dissent.
00:35:55.220 That's why they kicked this out of 538.
00:35:57.180 And look at 538.
00:35:58.460 They're a prediction model.
00:35:59.940 Nate Silver is doing this, too.
00:36:01.060 I know he thinks he's doing it for the right reasons, but their model is supposed to correct
00:36:06.880 for biases.
00:36:08.680 So when you have multiple pollsters coming out and saying all the polling is leading to
00:36:12.860 left, and yet the RealClearPolitics aggregates like a point and a half, two points, Harris.
00:36:18.360 But then their prediction model is four points, Harris.
00:36:22.040 What are they correcting for?
00:36:25.000 They're going the wrong way.
00:36:26.580 So I think I'm constantly surprised every day by the lack of integrity, how corrupt things
00:36:32.920 are.
00:36:33.980 And I'm just here to say, like, we're putting out our numbers every night.
00:36:37.320 Jamal Harris had a bounce.
00:36:38.600 It wasn't big.
00:36:39.260 The DNC's over.
00:36:40.440 Trump's starting to inch back up.
00:36:42.100 And Trump is winning nationally.
00:36:44.400 But whatever, one to three points, call it, in our numbers.
00:36:47.920 But even if we're two or three points left, Trump's down one nationally.
00:36:51.340 Right.
00:36:52.060 That's a lot better than he was doing four years ago when he lost by only 116,000 votes
00:36:58.640 in four swing states.
00:36:59.900 Mark, I want to follow up with this final question.
00:37:03.080 It's probably a bad question to ask since we just got off a question of integrity and
00:37:06.740 being right and wrong.
00:37:07.980 But I will ask it this way.
00:37:09.760 If the election were held tomorrow, who wins and by what margin?
00:37:19.080 Yeah, good question.
00:37:20.420 Um, I would say if Trump wins half of the swing states he's tied in, I don't know.
00:37:27.860 I think we see high 200s.
00:37:30.280 You know, I think he's like 290, comfortable win, barring surprises, barring they actually
00:37:36.240 stopped counting the vote, barring Brett Barrett doesn't get involved in the elections.
00:37:42.200 And that's based on my Trump plus, you know, one or two.
00:37:46.400 Nate Silver's useful.
00:37:47.580 He put a nice little chart out that people can use as a slider.
00:37:51.000 What's the national popular vote?
00:37:52.520 And it says exactly.
00:37:53.800 And if Trump's doing like three or four points, which is where I think he returns to, I think
00:37:57.940 it was like 312 to, you know, whatever.
00:38:00.140 That's a that's a huge win.
00:38:02.500 And it's like, well, that makes sense.
00:38:04.140 If Trump's winning three to four points and he gets in the 300s, that's where Biden did
00:38:09.160 when he was winning by four points.
00:38:10.600 You know, Biden obviously got some help in California.
00:38:14.660 So it's yeah, that's a pretty clear race.
00:38:17.960 That's where I think we're going.
00:38:20.160 Subject to a jail sentence, subject to Biden being 25th, the resigning or having a health
00:38:26.600 emergency, subject to crazy things maybe happening in the debate.
00:38:31.440 They can move a lot.
00:38:32.520 They can move a little.
00:38:33.260 Who knows?
00:38:33.660 And I guess we'll soon find out on November 5th if states like Georgia, Brian Kemp down
00:38:39.840 in Georgia or Youngkin in Virginia and some of the other states like Arizona that are
00:38:44.520 run by the Democrats did enough, you know, to clean up their voter rolls and right the
00:38:50.540 wrongs of 2020.
00:38:52.800 You know, I was talking with somebody the other day about it.
00:38:55.340 I think it was Roger Stone.
00:38:57.120 You know, we're not going to have all those mail-in ballots that we had in 2020.
00:39:00.040 So I think we're going to see a far different election, but we'll find out hopefully on the
00:39:05.500 night of November 5th or the early morning of November 6th, right?
00:39:09.560 We'll see.
00:39:10.360 There are some hijinks.
00:39:11.860 I've had some really horrifying.
00:39:13.360 20% of all people in the swing states told me in 2020 they got at least one superfluous extra
00:39:19.520 mail-in ballot at their address.
00:39:21.380 28% of all mail-in ballot voters in 2020 said they committed at least one form of fraud.
00:39:25.760 And now, lately, the issue we've been having is in our polling, and no other pollster will
00:39:30.860 tell you this, we have people telling us that they voted in 2020.
00:39:34.300 They're going to vote again in 2024.
00:39:35.960 Oh, and by the way, they're not citizens.
00:39:38.060 Oh, my God.
00:39:39.280 So.
00:39:40.360 Unbelievable.
00:39:41.160 I mean, that's what you get.
00:39:42.740 That's what you get from the Biden in states like New York when illegal can go and get a
00:39:47.520 driver's license and car companies will insure them.
00:39:50.780 It makes no sense to me.
00:39:51.920 It's like we're living in a place.
00:39:52.620 We're finding these people in Ohio now.
00:39:54.080 Yeah, it's unbelievable.
00:39:55.040 Well, Mark Mitchell, you're doing a great job.
00:39:57.060 Thanks for all the great work you're doing.
00:39:59.080 Where could people find your daily tracking polls or follow your work?
00:40:03.720 Go to Twitter, Rasmussen underscore poll.
00:40:05.920 You can hit me up to Mark underscore R underscore Mitchell.
00:40:08.780 Mine are a little bit more of the hot takes and less of the numbers.
00:40:12.180 And also, we're at YouTube.
00:40:13.720 I go in depth into the numbers and look at the cross tabs.
00:40:17.640 And that's also Rasmussen underscore poll.
00:40:20.200 Thanks to Mark Mitchell.
00:40:21.160 And thank you all for being with us today.
00:40:22.680 Please be sure to join us right back here tomorrow for the Great America Show as our quest for truth, justice and the American way continues.
00:40:29.520 Our guest will be House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan.
00:40:32.420 He's going to break it down for us what he's got up his sleeve and what he's working on before November 5th.
00:40:36.920 Please join me for that tomorrow.
00:40:39.300 Please be sure to follow me on Twitter at John Fawcett NY.
00:40:42.220 That's John Fawcett NY.
00:40:43.860 And on Truth Social at John Fawcett.
00:40:46.100 Shoot me a tweet.
00:40:46.740 Let me know what you want to hear more of on this show.
00:40:48.280 You can also email us at info at Lou Dobbs dot com.
00:40:51.340 We'll see you back here tomorrow.
00:40:52.500 May God bless you.
00:40:53.740 May God bless America.
00:40:54.620 And may God bless the great Lou Dobbs.