IT’S A FIGHT BETWEEN CONSERVATIVES & MARXISTS & A BIG BATTLE BETWEEN LEFT AND RIGHT POLLSTERS
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Summary
Robert K. Cahaley, the most accurate pollster in the past three election cycles, joins Lou Dobbs to discuss the latest polling numbers, the opioid crisis in Texas, and why Joe Biden's immigration plan is a bad idea.
Transcript
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Hello everybody and welcome to the Great America Show. I'm Lou Dobbs, a big development in Texas
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that's a reason for all of us to hope we can begin to regain control of our lives
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and save tens of thousands of American lives from the fentanyl drug dealers.
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In the great state of Texas, Governor Greg Abbott has taken a major step forward
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to combat the rampant spread of the fentanyl drug trade.
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Governor Abbott has issued an executive order designating the Mexican drug cartels
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as foreign terrorist organizations and directed the Texas Department of Public Safety
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to take immediate action against the cartels. Governor Abbott said, quote,
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in order to save our country, particularly our next generation, we must do more to get fentanyl
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off our streets, end quote. Governor Abbott deserves great credit for his courageous leadership
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and we can only hope that President Biden will follow his example. Well done, Governor Abbott.
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President Biden's wide open southern border has been crossed by at least 2 million,
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perhaps as many as 5 million, illegal immigrants since Biden took office. And Biden has the temerity
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to say it's not rational to deport those illegals. But I guess in Joe's impaired mind,
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it is rational for American citizens to be paying for them, paying for their housing, their food,
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shelter, education for their kids, and of course, their health care. Paying all of that for the
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illegal immigrants and then having their own expenses pushed higher. Prices pressured higher by more
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illegals, driving demand for cars, food, fuel, housing prices, and rents. And what happens,
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Mr. Biden, when we don't have jobs for all of those people? You think they'll run back to their
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homelands or stay here and live on our welfare system? Never mind, Joe, it's it's complicated.
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Hopefully we'll be able to simplify things for old Joe come November 8th. Wow, only 45 days away from
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the election now. It'll be here before we know it. And to give us his reading on the body politic
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and tell us where this election is headed. One of my favorite folks, our guest today is Robert Cahaley,
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the head of the Trafalgar Group, the most accurate pollster in the past three election cycles,
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a great American, of course. And here now is Robert Cahaley. Robert, great to have you back with us.
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Always instructive, always enlightening. And let's begin with what you are most impressed with in
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your latest round of polling. Well, I think what we're seeing is this kind of a movement away
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from the center of the unaffiliated and the swing voters much more in line with where the Republicans
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are. And this, this is not completely unexpected with everything that's going on in the country.
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But I think that there's some traditional polling errors that are continuing. You know, some of it's
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on purpose, on purpose. Some of it are just mistakes. But there's a battle going on. As much as there's a battle
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on state by state, there's a battle going on among people putting out polls, because there are those
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who are agenda driven on the left, whether it's media outlets or some of the universities who
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are trying very hard to keep the American public from see from accepting that the Republicans are going
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to have a big year. They've tried to re-counter the narrative by just overwhelming the polling
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averages with polls that, frankly, aren't legit. That are, you know, I always say that polls are designed
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to either reflect the electorate or affect the electorate. And so what I see is a lot of stuff
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coming out there that's designed to confuse people. This fascination and pushing of the
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generic ballot, like it is some in doubt beat all. The generic ballot is as predictive of who's going
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to win Congress as the popular vote is of who's going to win the president. It doesn't matter,
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because it is state by state and it's district by district. And so it would be like ignoring this,
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the state by state polls in the presidential election and just focused on the popular voter
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doesn't make any sense. Exactly. And you've said a number of things. It piques my curiosity. And one is
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trying to, uh, talking about trying to, uh, effectively influence the, the, the result on
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November 8th by their reporting of polls, uh, which means the polls are absolutely worthless in some
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cases. Uh, we know yours are when not, excuse me, the most accurate among the most accurate.
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And we're also now suddenly hearing and seeing stories and headlines, uh, again, left-wing Marxist
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dim disinformation. Make no mistake about it. Anybody, this audience knows that the U S government,
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uh, is bar none, the chief disinformation source in this country. Next up is the, uh, left-wing,
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the Marxist dim party. We're seeing, we're seeing more headlines saying, Robert, that, uh, Biden is
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making a creating of energy and making a move and there's momentum. Um, when just a month ago,
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we were all talking about the red wave and the possibility of a red tsunami. Give us the straight
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dope. Well, the straight dope is, let's just cut through all the nonsense and let's look at,
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let's look at four good barometer states. Okay. So we're going to talk about the difference between
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August and September. In August, all the polling showed Herschel Walker down double digits.
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In September, we, we had Herschel up, uh, eight tenths of a point. Emerson now has him up by two
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and insider advantage has Walker up by three. There is no, that's three in a row, uh, you know,
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three completely different systems. And certainly no one would accuse Emerson college of being in line
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with, uh, either insider advantage or Matt tower or, or us, uh, Pennsylvania, same situation. Uh,
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Dr. Oz losing, you know, real bad. He's down 11, 12. We came out and said he was only losing by,
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uh, I think it was four and there was one. Sorry, Robert losing by four. We were roundly criticized.
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And then within a few weeks, within a few days, uh, Quinnipiac and Emerson, I think came up at four
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and five. So again, that is a race moving in the right direction, uh, for Dr. Oz that was written
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off, uh, another race that, uh, that we've never, we thought was competitive. Uh, there's a suggestion
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that, um, uh, JD Vance was losing in Ohio, but now you've had three solid polls, all showing
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consistent leads four or five points each. And, uh, look at, in Arizona, you're hearing stuff about
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how the Senate Republicans and all were backing off of away from masters. And, you know, we came out
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and said that, uh, that race was in four or roundly criticized, uh, within a few days, uh, insider
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advantage that it was six and Emerson said it was two averaging back to our four. So those are
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four races that are a lot better than they were a month ago. And, uh, you know, you look at places
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like Nevada and we got, uh, consistently the Republicans winning. And so what I would tell
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you is I think that they have tried to create a narrative at a point when, uh, very few people
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are paying attention, which is August. Uh, now people are starting to kind of pay attention,
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uh, in the specific case of the race in Pennsylvania, uh, out of just good taste,
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people were pretty much leaving Fetterman alone while he healed. You know, nobody was beating the
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guy up for three months after the primary. No one was laying off of Oz in those three months,
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mind you. So now that Fetterman's getting a little taste of what Oz has been getting a taste of,
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that one's tightening. And, and so what we're seeing is this movement back toward, it's going
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to be a good day for Republicans. We're, we're seeing, you know, even polls that aren't very good
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are starting to acknowledge that no, the economy is number one. It is not abortion. That people are
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talking about the border. People are talking about, uh, you know, how green new deal and you're making
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their top five climate change and making their top five and add to that. What we think is the single
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biggest thing that's happened this, uh, fall to affect the elections, uh, has been this, uh, student
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loan forgiveness. We've never, never, nothing this year has evoked more, uh,
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just visceral rejection and, and people being upset as that, you know, people in America are very
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generous. Nobody minds helping somebody who's in need, but the idea of asking somebody who's working
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with their hands for a living to help out someone more affluent than pay off their college loans,
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that just doesn't taste right. And the other thing we found is when we talk to people who receive the
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loans or are planning to get the money, they're saying things like, Oh, I owed $120,000 and now I owe
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110. Thanks, Joe. You covered a semester. Awesome. Yeah. Yeah. It's, this is a, right now, this is a society,
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I think generally, and I'm just speaking from my own personal perspective, but I think America right now
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as a society in the throes, uh, of a, a, a vast sickness, uh, whether it's moral or whether it is
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ethical, whether it is legal, uh, whether it is political, uh, we have lost sight of who runs this
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country. We have lost sight of how this country is to be run, uh, because the, the left of this country
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is carrying out every day, the most intensive disinformation campaign ever directed at the
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United States of America. I don't know if that can show up in your polling, uh, but I think it's,
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it's certainly, uh, in my judgment, uh, obvious as, uh, the nose on our faces, uh, that that's what's
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going on. Your thoughts? Well, here's the, here's, here's kind of what our theory is, is, you know,
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in 2016, you had people who are a little hesitant to tell you who they were for, you know, we call
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them shy Trump voters. They, they've been referred to as, as deplorables and smelly Walmart shoppers and
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such. And so they didn't want to be judged. And so the social desirability bias kind of led people to
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not being full forthright about who they were supporting by 2020 cancel culture was in full
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speed and people were just, you know, kind of checking out. They were, they weren't really
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taking, they were trying, they didn't want to tell you their opinion. They were, they were kind of,
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a lot of them were laying out of polls or they were saying undecided and the polls were getting it
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wrong because the Republicans they were able to get, the ones that really wanted to take a poll
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were the never Trump Republicans. So they were taking a very small subset of Republicans who were
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easier to get to participate in a poll and artificially growing their numbers because they were easier to
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reach. Uh, in 2022, I think you have a whole different thing with what Biden has done with, uh,
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going after MAGA Republicans. What I see developing is what I call submerged voters. Uh,
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these are voters that are just, they are very, very wary about anybody, uh, knowing what their
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position is. Uh, you know, now they're seeing people, but there's canceled, uh, doxed, uh, you know,
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having their house toilet papered, whatever. So they're not putting signs in the yard,
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they're not putting stickers on their cars, but they're not posting their opinions on social
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media and they're not taking polls. They are submerged. I mean, they are literally below
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periscope depth until election day and nobody's going to have any clue what they're doing. And
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they're going to be hard, uh, virtually impossible to poll even for us because we're not going to
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have to get them. And so I think they're checking out of these polls and we're, we're seeing it.
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And let me, let me give you just anecdotal from us. We're known around the country, uh, people who
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find themselves conservatives know us and trust us. So every day now when we're sending out polls,
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we're getting people will call us or email us or text us and say, is this really y'all? I just got a
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call. They said this, is this really you? Somebody snapshotted one of our email polls said,
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I wanted to answer it, but I didn't know whether it was somebody pretending to be you.
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I mean, that is the level of skepticism people have. And I'm not saying it's not right. I'm not
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saying it's not justified, but the fact that they don't even want to participate in a poll
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because they're worried is someone trying to gather information on them that isn't really a
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poll that's pretending to be us tells you exactly kind of the atmosphere we're in right now.
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Yeah. It's abject fear in my opinion, Robert, abject fear. And that is precisely what Joe Biden,
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the Marxist Dems, uh, who are his masters and who run the Democrat party intended and the deep state.
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When you see the president of the United States, uh, the FBI swarm his home and, uh, search and
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seized documents and his, in the offices, his offices in his home in Mar-a-Lago, there is nothing
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left. Uh, when you see a congressman, uh, his phone confiscated by the FBI, as he's standing at his,
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uh, front door of his vacation, uh, residence, this is outrageous. And we're a Mike Lindell,
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uh, accosted by a dozen agents, three cars that block his path. Uh, in a, uh, I believe it was a
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Chick-fil-A, uh, uh, Hardee's, uh, another great institution, Hardee's. I love their biscuits and
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gravy. Uh, it is, uh, it's, it's, it's a time for every one of us to be afraid. If we're not afraid for
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the Republic right now, we're, uh, we're not being rational. And I am deeply fearful for this
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Republic and for our prospects. I think that's what you're seeing. It's fear. Absolutely. And the
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thing is, Hey, a congressman is one thing, but Mike Lindell is, is a private citizen with a, with an
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opinion. Like if he says something that's famatory, okay, companies can sue him, but that doesn't
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involve the FBI. Since when is holding an opinion, an opinion worthy of this? I mean, what, what,
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what is, what my fear is as an American is we're going to go from submerged voters to people who are
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so convinced the government's going to know how they vote, but they're not going to vote, or they're
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going to vote the way that they're supposed to vote. And that's the threat to democracy. Yeah. You're
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talking about a Marxist Disneyland when that is the result, because that is the result they're seeking,
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obviously, uh, just as, uh, some have said that January 6th is an exercise to show all conservatives
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in this country, all independents, all Republicans, all patriots, that they better not come to
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Washington DC, uh, with their nonsensical beliefs and the fundamental good of this country, uh, and
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believe in faith, family, uh, and, uh, their, their country. It is so disturbing to me to see this go on.
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And I, and I think most people are so shocked too. Uh, some of the folks I've talked with can't believe
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the dimension of what we're seeing. Uh, and I want to go to that point, uh, because we saw this in the
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silent majority of, uh, decades ago, uh, when the silent majority couldn't be polled. And I hear you
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saying that despite all of these positive numbers for Republican candidates, that there is potential
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that it could be even a stronger result, uh, actually on election day. Yes. I mean, and,
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and, and I think it's, it, what we're seeing is just because people are so hesitant. I mean,
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these voters are, like I said, these, they're, they're submerged. They're, they're, they're radio
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silent, you know? I mean, they're off, they're off the coast of Greenland. We have no idea where
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they are. I mean, they, they're, they're submerged until their mission's done and they're not coming up.
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No air, no periscope depth, nothing. They're down there and they're, they're not going to do
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another thing. They don't want to share any opinions. They don't want to talk about it.
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They just want to, I mean, right now they're so angry and there's only one way to scratch that
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itch and it's to vote. Uh, absolutely. And we're hearing this folks from the pollster who has the
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best record of identifying Republican voters and including him, them in his polling, which if this is
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fair for me to say, you correct me, uh, and if I'm correct, expand on it, finding Republican voters.
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And that is one of the reasons your polls are considered, uh, if not the most accurate amongst
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the top three most accurate polls every time, every cycle.
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Well, I mean, these, these kinds of, you know, they identified as shy voters. I mean, that once
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because we, you know, we have some good techniques to kind of build a comfort level and to get them to
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be honest, a little more honest than they are with most polls. Uh, and they're just, you know,
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we're not going to share all the techniques, but they've proven very well. And, and yeah, we,
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we, we, we're very proud to have the lowest error rate of any of the, of the national polling firms
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for the last three cycles combined. I mean, when we say something, you know, our prediction is,
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uh, we have a margin of error. Uh, we try to keep ours below three and our error rate is below two
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and a half. And most of the companies you've, you're familiar with are in the fours and fives.
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Yeah, absolutely. Uh, let's go through because folks, I think you're going to be interested,
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very interested, uh, even excited about, uh, what you're going to hear, uh, from the Trafalgar
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group, uh, and, uh, Robert Cahaly here today, because he has just recently, uh, done some polling
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in a few of the battleground states. I want to turn first, if I may, to the national issue survey on the
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divided, uh, uh, versus unified, uh, issue. Tell us about that. Well, you know, the, the, this idea of
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what everybody's been looking toward is, is the, the country's becoming more, more, more and more
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divided. And so the, uh, I'm trying to figure which one in particular we're talking about. Um, let's see.
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Yeah. It's from your, it's from your, uh, convention of the state's action.
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President Biden promised to unify the country when he first took off.
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Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. All right. Okay. Let me just read this for the audience very quickly.
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Do you believe he has unified or divided the country during his time as president?
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Yeah. I'm, again, not staring at that particular one. I've, I've got it like seven from them. Um, so.
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Okay. Let me, let me just, uh, share the numbers in with everybody. Divided. People say that he has
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divided the country by a margin of, uh, 31, uh, excuse me, 30. I'm sitting here looking at this
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myself through my glasses. It's hard to believe 38% of, uh, uh, who, uh, margin for divided the
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country. There's that, that means there is no ambiguity in the minds of almost anyone about
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the effect of what Joe Biden has done to the country in less than two years in office.
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There's no question. And it's, I mean, the whole premise of voting for Joe Biden was,
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he was going to talk about unity. Yeah. He, he, he was going to bring people together. He was going
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to, going to unite. And then you see that speech the other night and you're just thinking
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this, this, this could be in a movie, uh, a version of the book 1984. I mean, any minute I was thinking
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somebody was going to run up and throw the hammer at the telescreen. I mean, it was like,
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what in the hell is happening here? It's just hard to believe.
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And we, and again, we're hearing these words from one of the most, uh, again, the most prominent,
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uh, Republican pollster in the country and the most prominent pollster period, uh, in my judgment,
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uh, this is a time for people who are the most sophisticated, uh, uh, politically in our country
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are just as bewildered as the rest of us, that this is our current reality in this short a timeframe.
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Uh, it is, it is, it's almost impossible to assimilate. So I blame no one who does not pay
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constant attention to the politics, to the economics, uh, and to the poll, the politics of
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it all. Their heads have got to be swimming in disbelief. You've got a certain segment of the
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population, some older, more liable voters who are just, just bewildered. They don't really,
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they can't believe this is the country. And just as we've seen parents be very upset about the
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children that are learning. And it's almost like, and we saw, we saw the parent thing really start in
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the, in the summer of 2020 before anybody was really talking about this, uh, in 2021, like it
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infected the governor's race in Virginia. And for us, the flashpoint, what people started
00:24:04.780
mentioned to us was when they were, uh, trying to tear down the Andrew Jackson statue in front of
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the white house. Right. And what parents were telling us is their kids were like, isn't he a bad
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guy? And the parents were like, what? Andrew Jackson's a bad guy now. And that was shocking to the
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parents that now this guy's been painted as a bad guy. So parents kind of started to have this
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sneaking feeling that kind of a brand new perspective of looking at the country was being
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taught to their kids and that eventually it would go mainstream. And guess what? It got here faster
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than anyone thought. Yes. And I think in a strange way, we're probably very fortunate that it did
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because now there's no excuse for any American not to know that his or her children are being accosted
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by their teachers as early as five years of age, uh, by some teachers who want to talk about sex and
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gender, uh, to them in the classroom. And, uh, all one has to do is think back to the, the, the crazy
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letter from the national school boards association, uh, carrying the nonsense of the Biden administration
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and the left wing agenda on, uh, indoctrination of our children. This has, by the way, that set the,
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the precedent for everything that followed, uh, a coordinated weaponization of the department of
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education, the, uh, the, uh, the white house itself, school boards, uh, it was in league with the
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democratic party. I mean, people no longer should be surprised by anything that the democratic party
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is involved in. Uh, I want, I want to turn to Michigan, Ohio, New York, and Georgia very quickly,
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because these polls are so powerful in the result in their, in terms of their interest to our audience.
00:26:06.360
Let's go, let me start with Michigan, uh, and a race there, uh, between, uh, DiPerno, DiPerno,
00:26:14.660
the Republican and Nessel, the incumbent Democrat on the AG ballot. One of the most important races in
00:26:21.320
the country and every state is going to be the attorney general race. Those numbers, uh, show about a
00:26:27.540
1%, 1.8% margin. Uh, tell us what's going on there because frankly, DiPerno has been, uh, ignored,
00:26:35.780
if not opposed by the Republican national organization. And he seems to be closing the
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gaps, uh, clearly in the state of Michigan. Well, I think what, what, I'm not sure which
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national or Republican organizations are, uh, we're talking about here as far as opposing it. There's
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so many of these are so-called Republican organizations nationwide, but what I think we're seeing is
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in Michigan, especially people lived really through a lot of tough things with COVID and
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everything else. And Gretchen Whitmer is a lot less popular than people realize too. Now, Michigan's
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fighting hard and they, they put a, uh, uh, some sort of, uh, language about abortion and, uh, some
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guarantee of, of access to abortion on the ballot, uh, trying to influence who, who turns out in the
00:27:35.460
fall. And, and I, I'll be honest, it might be successful, uh, that they, they might generate a
00:27:41.560
turnout that, that will not, you know, bear this out. But what we're seeing is this, this is a very
00:27:47.140
competitive race right now. Uh, it's, it's, you know, 40, 48, uh, eight to 47. So, I mean, we're
00:27:54.960
talking two points and, uh, you know, our last governor's race wasn't quite that tight. So, uh,
00:28:02.420
this is a little tighter and, and, you know, Nussel's been particularly bad. Whitmer is not, uh,
00:28:09.420
particularly not, not as polarizing as Nussel is, but, uh, so that, that we're, we're certainly
00:28:16.820
seeing that, uh, that's demonstrated in these polls. Well, let's take a little, uh, look at a
00:28:24.380
number of issues. You mentioned student loans earlier. Uh, this is a huge poll on, uh, student
00:28:30.820
loan, a, a huge and important, uh, uh, question, uh, which you ask, are you more or less likely
00:28:37.600
to vote for a political candidate who supports, uh, President Biden's student loan? Much less
00:28:43.360
likely, 49%, much more likely, uh, about 31%. That is a huge margin and clearly, uh, an electoral
00:28:52.660
mistake, uh, based on your polling. Absolutely. And, uh, and that's what I was saying at the
00:28:58.920
beginning of the show. I think this is the single biggest mistake they've made. And, uh, Attorney
00:29:04.900
General in Ohio, we see the Republican, uh, there, uh, just clobbering the Democrat. Uh,
00:29:13.600
we see a tight race, as I said, in Michigan, uh, with Attorney General, uh, with DiPerno.
00:29:20.620
As we look at the National Issues Survey, to go to GOP confidence right now, the question
00:29:26.200
was, have Republicans made a strong enough case for your vote? Yes is 34%. No is 56%.
00:29:33.900
How does that square up with the rest of your polling? Well, it, it spares up in the sense
00:29:39.840
that we have a, um, um, we have the, the, this GOP momentum that, that it's there. And so
00:29:52.680
that they are, um, people are ready, but they haven't made the argument. Can, can the Republican
00:30:03.880
win this election by simply rejecting the Democrats in charge? Yes. Could the Republicans
00:30:13.340
win by a bigger margin and pick up more things on the periphery if they made a better case
00:30:18.160
for what they'll do different? Absolutely. There's room to grow because, you know, right
00:30:24.320
now this is just the rejection of the Democrats and Biden, but this could be an embrace of another
00:30:30.320
plan. There just isn't a good cohesive other plan out there yet. Schumer privately admitting
00:30:36.020
Dems could lose the house. He says Trump will win. Uh, when the, when Schumer admits that
00:30:42.640
Republicans could, uh, I mean, Democrats could lose the house. That sounds very good to me
00:30:48.100
because that's not the kind of statement I expect him to make ever. Your thoughts as we
00:30:52.360
close up here. And she, we're talking about the house or the Senate Senate. I'm sorry. We're
00:30:57.060
talking about Senator Schumer saying that about the house. Okay. So Schumer is talking about
00:31:02.440
the house still. All right. Yeah. Um, I, I think it's strong. I, I, I think it'd be a little
00:31:09.880
stronger if he thought that way about the Senate, but I think that, uh, I think the Republicans
00:31:13.980
are going to win this. I'm not even concerned about what the Republicans win the house. I think
00:31:19.240
the Republicans win the Senate as well. Wow. That is, uh, that is a powerful statement.
00:31:26.320
Uh, let me ask you, by how many seats since we've gone that far?
00:31:32.700
One or two. Um, if it's, if there's a limited amount of submerged voters, um,
00:31:44.640
high watermark of four, if there's a whole lot of them.
00:31:47.700
Wow. That is quite, quite a, uh, a forecast. Uh, I, and we appreciate you sharing it with
00:31:55.280
our audience here on the great America show is always Robert. Uh, I, I know you're busy
00:32:00.240
as you can possibly be right now. We thank you for your time. We look forward to our next
00:32:04.200
visit and your next poll, uh, which will be in the next few days. So thanks so much.
00:32:09.260
Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar group, a great American. Thanks Robert.
00:32:13.760
Thank you. As always an honor. Appreciate it, sir. Thanks everybody for being with us today.
00:32:19.860
Tomorrow. Our guest will be a great American who's been battling political corruption in Michigan
00:32:24.460
since the election of 2020. Matt DiPerno is still fighting the Marxist Dems running to be the next
00:32:32.020
attorney general of the great state of Michigan. Please join us here tomorrow. Until then,