The Great America Show - The Best Of The Great America Show： January 2, 2025

00:00:00.000 Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Great America Show.

00:00:05.220 It's great to have you with us.

00:00:06.200 Thanks so much for joining us today.

00:00:08.000 Our guest today is John Lonsky.

00:00:09.440 He's the CEO of The Lonsky Group.

00:00:11.280 John, thanks so much for joining us today here on The Great America Show.

00:00:14.120 I want to start with what we saw yesterday, the 10th straight losing day on the Dow, first

00:00:20.260 since 1974, Dow taking a nearly 1,200-point hit after Jerome Powell decided he wanted

00:00:27.080 to come out and, we'll say, play politics.

00:00:30.740 What's your thoughts?

00:00:31.960 I think that is very much the case.

00:00:34.680 You know, I was struck by the fact that, you know, back at the September FOMC meeting, we

00:00:41.120 had the FOMC downwardly revise its forecast for the Fed funds rate of year-end 2024, suddenly

00:00:49.760 from 5.1 percent, that was taken in March and, excuse me, June, to September's 4.4 percent.

00:01:00.240 And indeed, that turns out to be the case.

00:01:02.340 Fed funds ends this year at 4.38 percent, about 4.4.

00:01:07.360 But what was striking about this is that I cannot help but think that the FOMC, the Federal

00:01:14.500 Reserve, was cutting rates back in September deeply by half a percentage point because they

00:01:21.920 were very worried that Donald Trump would indeed be re-elected president of the United States.

00:01:28.480 They were trying to do whatever they could possibly do to improve the chances of the Democrats

00:01:35.580 holding on to the presidency.

00:01:37.720 And it didn't work as it turned out.

00:01:40.280 Trump ended up becoming victorious.

00:01:42.640 Now, the other thing I'm struck by is that up until Trump's victory, Jerome Powell never

00:01:50.400 said anything about the importance of the federal budget deficit to the U.S.'s current problem

00:01:58.620 with interest rates and price inflation.

00:02:01.900 But once Trump becomes elected president, all of a sudden, this is on the front burner as far

00:02:09.380 as what the Fed is willing to talk about regarding what is influencing the outlook for inflation

00:02:15.420 and for interest rates.

00:02:16.640 You know, there's so much to uncover there.

00:02:19.740 I want to roll a clip.

00:02:21.600 This is back in January of this year.

00:02:24.560 So almost a year to the day coming up.

00:02:27.540 It was about mid-January.

00:02:28.720 So when Trump will be sworn in for president, President Trump sat down with the great Lou Dobbs

00:02:34.540 at Mar-a-Lago and he had expressed his concerns about the economy.

00:02:38.400 And Lou, by trade, was an economist.

00:02:41.340 Knew more about the markets than some of these folks that we see go out on television.

00:02:46.080 And I'm not saying you, but I'm saying, you know, some of these folks who are out there

00:02:48.960 pretending like they know what's going on, but, you know, can't read a simple balance sheet.

00:02:54.440 And Lou used to make fun of these people all the time.

00:02:56.520 They can't read a balance sheet.

00:02:57.700 Anyway, Lou and President Trump are talking.

00:03:00.340 And President Trump, you know, expresses his concern about this economy and makes a statement

00:03:05.200 that he hopes the economy doesn't crash when he takes over as president.

00:03:11.060 If it's going to happen, let it happen now.

00:03:13.000 And I'll be there to save this thing.

00:03:15.120 It's almost like he's no Shradamus because, you know, he predicts a lot of things that happen.

00:03:19.860 But I want to roll this clip and get your thoughts on it, John.

00:03:21.940 You want to buy a home today.

00:03:23.160 You're middle income and you want to go out to a bank.

00:03:25.080 The banks, number one, don't have money. 0.99

00:03:27.200 And if they do have money, they're loaning it at nine and 10 and 11 percent or not loaning

00:03:31.900 it really at all.

00:03:34.060 We have an economy that's incredible.

00:03:37.020 We have an economy that's so fragile.

00:03:39.160 And the only reason it's running now is it's running off the fumes of what we did, what

00:03:43.560 the Trump administration, it's just running off the fumes.

00:03:47.200 And when there's a crash, I hope it's going to be during this next 12 months because I

00:03:53.660 don't want to be Herbert Hoover.

00:03:54.940 The one president, I just don't want to be Herbert Hoover.

00:03:58.220 But what they've done is incredible.

00:04:00.980 What they're doing with all of this money, the trillions and trillions of dollars of

00:04:06.660 of waste, this Green New Deal is, you know, it's a the Green New Deal will destroy our 0.99

00:04:13.660 country.

00:04:15.140 You know, Lou's one of the few people who can speak with President Trump about that, because

00:04:19.000 like I said, aside from being a journalist, he's an economist and one of the few people

00:04:23.440 who truly understood what went on in this economy.

00:04:26.200 And, you know, before Lou passed, he had expressed on the show to me the hours we would speak

00:04:32.200 each day that he didn't trust this economy.

00:04:35.380 He didn't trust the the the debt buybacks that the Treasury was doing.

00:04:40.340 He did the numbers.

00:04:41.420 And we saw time and time again, John, last time you and I spoke, I think a job a jobs

00:04:45.760 reporter come out that had been revised by about 200000 jobs revised from 270000 down to

00:04:51.160 only 70000 jobs created.

00:04:53.700 What are your what's your thoughts about what President Trump foresaw coming?

00:04:58.160 Is this just a, you know, a week that a bad week for the markets, a bad day for the markets?

00:05:04.100 Or do you think this is something that's tumbling into maybe an earthquake?

00:05:09.240 Well, you know, right at this point in time, I'm not about to go out on a limb and predict

00:05:14.440 that a recession is going to arrive within the next six months.

00:05:18.220 But I hate to say this, you know, given if we really want to get rid of this inflation

00:05:23.600 problem once and for all, if we want to bring mortgage yields down to levels that make housing

00:05:29.600 affordable again, and I hate to add, if we want to soften home prices by enough to make

00:05:35.220 housing affordable again for first time homebuyers, we may have to go through some sort of correction,

00:05:42.120 slow down in economic activity that may be unavoidable.

00:05:46.640 Let's not forget Ronald Reagan, when he took over January of 1981, we had a recession that

00:05:53.380 struck in August of that year, August of 1981.

00:05:57.840 It was a severe recession, but it got rid of that chronic inflation problem from the 1970s

00:06:05.960 and early 80s once and for all.

00:06:08.060 It cleared the deck.

00:06:08.940 And by the time 1984 came around, that was the year of Reagan's re-election, Ronald Reagan

00:06:17.120 won by a mammoth landslide, the likes of which we haven't seen since.

00:06:23.280 So it may be that we have to bear a little bit of pain to get some long-term gain for the

00:06:31.080 U.S. economy.

00:06:31.960 But the only good thing I could say is we don't have a type of imbalances in the U.S. economy

00:06:38.040 today that would warn of a recession as severe as the 81-82 recession, nor do we have imbalances,

00:06:47.580 say, in the housing market that warn of a repeat of the 2008-2009 downturn.

00:06:54.360 Trump has inherited a mess, and the mess can be summarized by the simple fact that at this

00:07:03.960 point in time, the U.S. government is spending $1.8 trillion more, nearly $2 trillion more than

00:07:13.740 what it is taking in in terms of revenues.

00:07:17.420 That's why inflation prices remain high.

00:07:20.240 And that's also why, you know, today we had the 10-year Treasury yield jump up from 4.4

00:07:27.100 to more than 4.5%.

00:07:29.240 That means that mortgage yields are moving higher again, despite the Fed's latest rate cut.

00:07:35.180 You need that, you know, Department of Government Efficiency.

00:07:38.380 You're going to have to have cutbacks in government spending to put this economy, this country, back

00:07:44.320 on the right track.

00:07:45.800 Cutback in government spending, we're going to take that up in just a few moments.

00:07:49.360 This whole omnibus that Mike Johnson apparently is trying to dump on us just before Christmas

00:07:55.740 holiday.

00:07:56.820 As President Trump is set to take office now in a month and a day, this man wants to put

00:08:00.820 through a spending bill with woke ideologies and push us through March, give the Democrats

00:08:05.880 what they want, and give them a little pay raise over there in Congress. 0.94

00:08:09.700 I want to talk, John, before we get to that, a little bit of microeconomics for all the viewers

00:08:15.900 watching to boil down how this is hurting the Americans at the micro level.

00:08:21.120 This week, John, we find out that in the third quarter of 2024, U.S. credit card balances

00:08:26.400 rolls by $24 billion, reaching the almost $1.2 trillion mark, the highest record recorded

00:08:32.260 by the Fed in 20 years, okay?

00:08:35.240 You look at that coupled with household debt at $18 trillion.

00:08:40.500 This is at the micro level.

00:08:42.020 This is at the level that it's hitting the American people, you and I, maybe not you and

00:08:46.460 I per se, but the American people who are struggling to work two or three jobs.

00:08:51.160 You look at things like that, and President Trump, my father was in banking, he's now retired.

00:08:55.780 President Trump had floated the idea of capping credit card rates.

00:08:59.080 My father, being a banker, says that's a terrible idea, but what about the folks, John, who

00:09:03.780 work two or three jobs, who took out a credit card, who live on it to buy their groceries each

00:09:09.320 and every week, who are making maybe $3,000 a month, $4,000 a month, who would open up a

00:09:14.740 credit card at 12%.

00:09:15.680 Now, all of a sudden, these credit card companies want 29% and 30% after you've racked up $5,000,

00:09:19.980 $6,000, $7,000, $10,000 in debt.

00:09:22.960 First, let's get to the credit card outstanding balances by the American people.

00:09:28.040 What does that signal for us as an American class?

00:09:32.060 That's telling me that a lot of American families are living beyond their means.

00:09:38.000 I mean, you make a good point where you have more and more workers taking on two or three

00:09:42.780 jobs.

00:09:43.420 And in fact, if you look at some of the government data, you find that of late, we have an outright

00:09:50.460 contraction by full-time employment from a year ago, while we have an increase in part-time

00:09:56.520 employment, that doesn't represent a healthy labor market.

00:10:00.680 Believe me, it's a sickly labor market in my mind.

00:10:04.200 And in the past, whenever you had full-time employment declining while part-time employment

00:10:09.920 is growing, you ordinarily usually had a recession.

00:10:14.240 Not a good sign.

00:10:15.620 The labor market is not as strong as Paul thinks it is.

00:10:19.440 For example, the jobs growth you're getting of late, it's just concentrating in government,

00:10:25.640 health care, and leisure and hospitality.

00:10:28.460 When you get outside of that, you're looking at a meager, I think it's a six-tenths of a

00:10:34.120 percent year-over-year increase by the number of jobs outside of those three sectors.

00:10:39.780 That is not good.

00:10:41.540 Manufacturing output has been declining.

00:10:43.620 That is not good.

00:10:44.440 There's a lot of problems on the jobs front.

00:10:47.160 And I would think that eventually, the middle-income consumer, the lower-income consumer has to cut 0.87

00:10:55.300 back on spending.

00:10:56.680 And it's going to be that cutback in spending that is going to create problems for the economy.

00:11:03.460 It's going to create problems for the labor market. 0.99

00:11:06.440 And it's going to create a lot of headaches for those investors that are looking forward to

00:11:11.960 the further growth of corporate earnings.

00:11:15.620 Now, what about those folks, John, who simply can't?

00:11:18.220 Those folks who live paycheck to paycheck, who are in the median household income bracket

00:11:23.580 of $60,000 a year, $70,000 a year.

00:11:26.140 That's about what it is here in America for the median household income. 0.67

00:11:29.900 Obviously, unaffordable to live on that if you live here in New York or in the Northeast

00:11:33.320 or California, but 47, 46 other states, that's what people are living on out here in the

00:11:40.600 Midwest and things like that, who rely on credit cards, who rely on mortgages, who are

00:11:47.720 living paycheck to paycheck.

00:11:49.400 What about those folks who have already buried themselves now in this debt?

00:11:53.140 And like I said, whether it be $5,000, $10,000, $15,000, $20,000, what does it mean for them

00:11:57.780 who have now seen their credit card interest rates go from 12% to 13% all the way up to

00:12:02.600 29%, 30% after you've already borrowed the money?

00:12:05.820 You know, what that tells me is after what ought to be, it looks like a passable holiday

00:12:10.560 shopping season, there's going to be a pullback in consumer spending.

00:12:14.460 It's unavoidable.

00:12:15.740 According to what, you know, the data that you're providing me with, you can't do much

00:12:19.720 about it.

00:12:20.260 I mean, so that's going to be, you're going to have a slowdown that arrives later this

00:12:25.080 year.

00:12:25.440 And that will, again, that's going to force the Fed to go ahead and cut rates more deeply

00:12:32.720 than what they predicted today.

00:12:35.180 We're probably going to see Fed funds later this year drop to a rate that's lower than

00:12:41.980 the 3.9% predicted by the FOMC with today's policy statement.

00:12:48.000 I think that's inevitable.

00:12:49.380 We just don't have that type of underlying strength in the U.S. economy that is going

00:12:57.520 to be able to sustain consumer spending at the current level, barring some sort of miracle.

00:13:03.120 And I wouldn't count on that.

00:13:04.480 And I think, again, to cut government spending, that's going to cause some pain.

00:13:08.600 Let's go back to Reagan.

00:13:10.280 August 1981.

00:13:12.080 You know what happened in that month?

00:13:13.480 A very famous event that helped to turn the tide towards lower inflation, that being the

00:13:21.240 firing of 11,000 federal government workers, air traffic controllers, and that's called

00:13:28.080 the Patco strike.

00:13:29.360 Don't be surprised that if Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have that same type of event take

00:13:38.660 place to finally rein in government spending, and by doing so, bring inflation under control

00:13:46.560 and allow interest rates to decline significantly.

00:13:51.660 I want to take a quick break here.

00:13:53.240 We're talking with John Lonsky.

00:13:54.420 He's the CEO of the Lonsky Group.

00:13:56.160 John, when we return, I want to go a little bit deeper into these interest rates.

00:13:59.760 Going back the last six months and a trend that looks like it's happening, I also want

00:14:04.640 to go a little bit deeper into this budget that Mike Johnson's trying to force down our

00:14:08.300 throats, and Jerome Powell, if he can stay in his job after doing what he's done now for

00:14:13.880 the last year or so to this country.

00:14:17.920 So we're going to take a quick break.

00:14:19.100 We're coming right back with John Lonsky.

00:14:20.380 Folks, stay with us. 0.87

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00:15:24.260 We're back.

00:15:25.180 We're talking with John Lonsky.

00:15:26.260 He's the CEO of the Lonsky Group.

00:15:27.920 John, I want to turn to inflation.

00:15:32.120 It seems the government, I don't think, is being completely honest with us.

00:15:35.640 If you look back to the middle of the year, we look at April 3.4, May 3.3, June 3, July 2.9.

00:15:45.020 And then it drops down to 2.5 in August.

00:15:47.580 Seemingly in that time where Kamala Harris and Joe Biden decided to do their little switch off.

00:15:52.280 September drops down to 2.4, the lowest that we've seen in the last year.

00:15:56.020 October 2.6, November 2.7.

00:15:59.580 I have to assume for December we're going to see that trend continue upwards maybe 2.9 to 3.

00:16:06.980 What happened in that period of August and September that we saw that little drop off in inflation that now looks like it's back on a trajectory on its way back up?

00:16:16.020 After Kamala Harris and Joe Biden told us in October and November, inflation's under control.

00:16:20.860 We're all good here.

00:16:22.140 I don't know about you, John, but when I pick up my insurance bills and whatnot, you know, when I go to the grocery store, I see absolutely no evidence of a declining rate of inflation.

00:16:34.100 I happen to think that service sector inflation is taking off much more so than as it's measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, by the federal government.

00:16:46.540 I don't believe any of this at all, quite frankly.

00:16:49.720 And neither do American consumers.

00:16:52.460 Neither did the American voter on November 5th.

00:16:55.760 I think it's all hot wash.

00:16:57.140 And so I think, you know, they maybe tried to pull a stunt on the back of what had been declining gasoline prices, but that now has, you know, gasoline prices have bottomed out.

00:17:09.760 They're increasing again.

00:17:11.120 But worse yet, it seems as though food prices are beginning to lift off one more time.

00:17:19.120 Just in time for the holiday season when Americans seemingly have to go shopping for their families and shopping to celebrate the holidays.

00:17:26.420 And I hear so many complaints, you know, for families that have younger children above these steep price hikes for toys this Christmas season.

00:17:35.540 They're not happy about this at all.

00:17:37.700 You still have a problem with elevated prices.

00:17:42.120 The American consumer is not happy.

00:17:44.260 They're not pleased.

00:17:45.080 Oh, sure, you're getting this big jump by retail sales of the latest month.

00:17:50.000 But a lot of that jump consists of higher prices as opposed to an increase in the volume, actual number of consumer goods being sold.

00:18:00.880 Right.

00:18:01.920 Like I said, just in time for the holiday season for these folks to go out.

00:18:05.660 It's a good thing Santa Claus is real and we don't have to pay for gifts for family members.

00:18:10.240 Right, John?

00:18:11.060 I want to turn to Jerome Powell, who I think has played a massive role in all of this.

00:18:15.540 And seemingly thinking his job is safe there at the Federal Reserve.

00:18:20.160 Lou didn't agree that Jerome Powell was there in the first place.

00:18:23.780 I certainly don't think he should have been there in the first place.

00:18:25.940 He's not an economist by trade.

00:18:28.100 What is a man who's not an economist doing running the Federal Reserve, controlling the markets as we see?

00:18:35.140 You know, it used to be funny back when Trump was in office the first time.

00:18:38.340 Trump would put out a tweet and it would drive the markets.

00:18:40.180 That's OK.

00:18:40.600 He's the president of the United States.

00:18:41.840 There was no manipulation to it.

00:18:43.200 This man, it seems, is manipulating the markets.

00:18:45.760 How does President Trump allow him to stay in his job knowing this man's a politician?

00:18:52.480 Well, I think Trump lacks, to the best of my knowledge, the constitutional authority to fire Jerome Powell.

00:19:00.920 But you say, yeah, Jerome Powell is not an economist.

00:19:04.100 And by the way, the last time we had a lawyer or a non-economist like Powell had the Federal Reserve was under Jimmy Carter.

00:19:12.380 The guy's name was G. William Miller and inflation went through the roof and, you know, cost Carter any chance at being reelected as president back in the election of 1980.

00:19:26.520 So it's sort of like history is repeating itself.

00:19:30.800 You know, Powell, he's a political animal.

00:19:33.540 That's his biggest problem.

00:19:35.440 You mentioned the Inflation Reduction Act that had the effect of swelling the budget deficit and actually should have been called the Inflation Preservation Act because it extended the spout of rapid price inflation and elevated prices.

00:19:51.500 When he was Fed chairman, did Jerome Powell ever question the wisdom of this Inflation Reduction Act that added to government spending, government subsidies?

00:20:02.420 No way.

00:20:03.940 But sure enough, once the Democrats lose the election, Trump wins after November 5th.

00:20:11.380 We have to worry about that budget deficit.

00:20:14.120 You know, we have to worry about that again.

00:20:16.420 We've got to be concerned about fiscal policy.

00:20:18.960 We have to worry about tariffs.

00:20:20.420 They could be very inflationary.

00:20:23.040 That is, to me, that is a glaring example of how politicized the Powell Federal Reserve has been.

00:20:32.620 He's not the only one.

00:20:33.780 You had Janet Yellen, who I think is, I thought at least, was a hair smarter than Powell.

00:20:39.120 It seems that she's completely either lost her mind or I don't know what she's up to.

00:20:42.500 But she was sitting there cheering this thing on and she knows damn well that everything her party was pushing was not good for the economy and not good for Americans, John.

00:20:52.600 Yeah, they were not being honest about the economic cost of this reduction in carbon emissions.

00:21:00.140 Believe me, if they followed through on the plan proposed by John Kerry and company, the cost would have been humongous.

00:21:08.660 The cost would have led to higher inflation and slower growth and the loss of tens of thousands, if not more, in terms of jobs.

00:21:17.220 If you want to do something like this, at least be honest with people.

00:21:21.660 Don't lie to them.

00:21:22.920 Don't try to sugarcoat a change in the functioning of the economy that in all reality would prove to be very, very costly.

00:21:33.440 And I think the American people caught on to this.

00:21:36.060 They realized that this was a giant scam, if you like.

00:21:39.880 I want to I want to turn to something, too.

00:21:43.000 It's another issue and it's coupled with another issue.

00:21:46.440 And we'll try not to play politics on it because you are an economist.

00:21:50.640 The fact that U.S. real wages, if you look at what they are continuously on a decline from April of 2021 to flat now, I mean, completely flat.

00:22:00.700 Americans aren't making more money.

00:22:02.300 Inflation is going up.

00:22:03.680 At least they're telling us it's only going up slightly.

00:22:05.940 In my opinion, it's going up rapidly.

00:22:07.240 It sounds like you agree with me on that, that, you know, they're not being completely honest.

00:22:10.820 But wages are completely flat.

00:22:12.720 People aren't making more money to adjust for inflation and to adjust for inflation.

00:22:17.200 Right now, you need to make it get a considerably high promotion or raise.

00:22:22.400 And these companies are just not doing it.

00:22:24.620 But it seems like companies now are making more money than they've ever made before.

00:22:28.420 A lot of companies exploited covid raised prices when they didn't need to be raised as high as they were.

00:22:34.740 Hopefully these people pay the price for what they've done.

00:22:37.240 But you couple that now with illegal immigration and the illegals that are taking jobs in this country. 0.94

00:22:42.820 And then you couple that, John, with what President Trump wants to do when it comes to tariffs in this country and adding tariffs onto countries like Mexico, countries like Canada, countries like China, who have been eating our lunch for the last four years now.

00:22:57.880 What do you think that means?

00:23:00.280 Let's start with with with the deportation of these illegals who are driving wages down in this country. 1.00

00:23:04.780 There's no way other way to put that.

00:23:06.680 You know, they're taking jobs from American people allowing. 0.98

00:23:10.360 And it's these folks.

00:23:11.300 I spoke to Victor Lovia the other day, a very good man on the border.

00:23:15.800 It's these folks who are hiring them in cities like New York.

00:23:19.520 Right.

00:23:20.000 They're hiring these illegals to come work construction jobs or restaurant jobs. 0.99

00:23:23.460 They're paying them, you know, half the wages of what an American or illegal citizen would be making. 0.62

00:23:28.340 And they're driving wages down for for folks who could have those jobs. 0.97

00:23:32.400 What do you see coming January now, January 20th, as it comes to illegal immigration, the deportations and what it will mean for real wages for American people?

00:23:44.000 Hey, wage depression by illegal immigrants helps to explain why the Republicans did so much better with your lower income voter in the United States. 0.68

00:23:56.500 It makes a lot of sense.

00:23:57.700 They want these people out.

00:23:59.500 You're just talking about the impact on wages.

00:24:01.880 What about the effect on the communities?

00:24:03.980 I mean, they add to the spending that has to be taken by a city like New York.

00:24:10.160 It ends up in the billions of dollars to house these people.

00:24:13.340 They place the children of the illegal immigrants and already overcrowded, underperforming schools. 1.00

00:24:21.820 My goodness, this is a disaster.

00:24:24.040 And what I find to be funny about this is the fact that you have these proponents of a sanctuary city, these well-off liberals, you know, from towns like around New York City, from Rye, Chappaqua, Bronxville, Scarsdale, whatever.

00:24:42.760 You've got to go ahead and block these people and take care of them.

00:24:45.440 But I'll be damned if these limousine liberals want to have these illegal immigrants housed in their own communities. 1.00

00:24:53.900 I'll be damned if they want to have their kids going to their schools that they pay such high taxes for in order to fund these schools. 0.99

00:25:02.360 It's it's nonsensical. The hypocrisy is galling. 0.98

00:25:05.960 So you've got to sympathize for those people getting hurt by this.

00:25:09.600 And you really have to get angry at the people who push for these types of policies, who have this way of making sure that they're insulated from paying the cost of such policies.

00:25:23.680 You know, it's funny you brought that up about the hypocrisy.

00:25:26.340 Well, you remember what happened when I think it was DeSantis or Abbott flew him up to Martha's Vineyard.

00:25:31.220 They couldn't get them out of there fast enough.

00:25:33.680 They didn't want these migrants. 1.00

00:25:35.440 They didn't want these people that they love so much.

00:25:38.180 They didn't want them in their neighborhoods.

00:25:39.580 Why do you want them so bad?

00:25:41.560 There's these guys that I don't know if you've heard of the Nelk boys, but they're very good friends with Trump.

00:25:44.940 They're YouTubers.

00:25:46.160 And they did this prank I saw the other day.

00:25:49.120 And they brought a petition to these really rich white neighborhoods.

00:25:53.240 And they brought it to the they find Democrats and they bring it to the door.

00:25:56.280 They say, do you support bringing illegals into our city?

00:26:00.020 Absolutely.

00:26:00.380 Sign the petition.

00:26:01.960 OK.

00:26:02.680 And they had a boss, a yellow bus pull up outside with all these fake actor migrants. 1.00

00:26:06.660 Get out.

00:26:07.380 And they start filing it to this lady's house, about 10 or 15 of them.

00:26:11.500 And there's no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

00:26:14.260 But it's literally the hypocrisy of it all.

00:26:16.440 John, you bring them in here.

00:26:17.780 Then you should you should house them.

00:26:19.560 You should raise.

00:26:20.120 And this is why the government is run so inefficiently, so poorly.

00:26:26.000 My goodness.

00:26:26.680 The federal government simply exists for the most part as a massive jobs program, I think, and little else.

00:26:32.880 And there's really no need for that.

00:26:34.400 There's a lot of room for cost cutting.

00:26:37.560 Unfortunately, as I said earlier, this will involve getting rid of people that really aren't needed.

00:26:44.120 Of course, these people now go into the private sector.

00:26:46.660 And that perhaps will provide the private sector with a bad, badly needed supply of labor.

00:26:53.560 And over time, of course, the economy will grow more rapidly than otherwise.

00:26:58.640 Productivity will improve.

00:27:00.700 I guess it's the reason why the United States government is the largest employer in this country, hiring nearly 3 million people.

00:27:07.920 You fire half those people.

00:27:09.000 I think this country would probably run better than it's running with these folks.

00:27:12.720 Too many cooks in the kitchen. 1.00

00:27:13.660 You know, Senator Mike Lee of Utah has introduced legislation to ban illegal immigrants from receiving public benefits.

00:27:21.740 And I tweeted this out.

00:27:22.940 If you do this coupled with penalizing those folks who hire them and you get this border fixed, I guarantee you, you could fix this migrant issue in probably less than two years that President Trump has with this, at least Republican Congress.

00:27:36.900 You stop hiring them.

00:27:38.640 You stop giving them government subsidies, health care and schooling.

00:27:42.420 They have no constitutional right to health.

00:27:45.280 We don't even have a constitutional right to health care as Americans, John.

00:27:48.920 Yeah.

00:27:49.140 And what we should, you know, the State Department should wake up to their part of the problem and that they should go to these countries where the illegal immigrants are coming from and tell them it's time to shape up. 0.98

00:28:00.780 It's time to get rid of their silly socialist or Marxist doctrines that's restraining growth in all these different economies.

00:28:08.640 And also they have to push a lot of the corrupt officials, government officials from these Latin American economies and elsewhere out of office, try to clean up the act overseas. 0.66

00:28:20.000 And I'm going to go take I'm going to go a stretch further.

00:28:23.380 I'm going to go across the Pacific Ocean and I'm going to make a forecast.

00:28:27.800 And that is that as long as China remains allied with Russia and Iran and North Korea, the Chinese export engine will never roar the way it did in the past.

00:28:45.140 Chinese exports will not do that.

00:28:46.740 Well, the Chinese leadership has made a humongous, huge mistake that they need to correct if they want to have the Chinese economy return to the type of growth that provides the Chinese youth with the opportunity of finding a job.

00:29:03.500 I think the Chinese youth unemployment right now is above 25 percent.

00:29:07.980 I've been told that youth unemployment in China is so bad that Chinese young people are leaving the cities of China and moving to rural areas to take up a newfound occupation as a farmer.

00:29:25.560 You know, it's kind of crazy because I've been on the show and Lou's been on the show and Lou's been doing it for 30 years.

00:29:32.420 Criticizing the Chinese as masters of deception because everything they do is a lie. 1.00

00:29:36.880 I mean, the Chinese people individually, I'm saying the CCP, the Chinese government, everything that they tell us is a lie. 0.97

00:29:42.920 They told us 100000 people died in China from covid.

00:29:45.840 OK, you know, I got a million dollars for you if you can prove that to be true.

00:29:50.180 But it's it's now become the American government.

00:29:53.200 This has become the same exact way when it comes to lying.

00:29:56.680 I want to take one more quick break here.

00:29:58.320 We're coming back with John Lonsky is the CEO of the Lonsky Group.

00:30:00.840 And I want to go a little bit further into these tariffs that President Trump plans to to enact.

00:30:06.880 On, like I said, Canada, Mexico and China, just being the three of the three main ones who have been eating our lunch for the last four years and what it means for this economy.

00:30:16.120 I also want to take up that nearly 1500 page omnibus bill that Mike Johnson wants to give us all as a Christmas gift.

00:30:24.360 So nice of him.

00:30:25.340 We're coming right back with John Lonsky.

00:30:26.620 Folks, stay with us. 0.87

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00:31:21.060 They've never been offered this low before.

00:31:23.580 We have limited quantities at this price.

00:31:26.160 So limit's going to be 10.

00:31:27.700 And once they're gone, they're gone.

00:31:31.740 Folks, we're back.

00:31:32.640 We're talking with John Lonsky.

00:31:33.720 He's the CEO of the Lonsky Group.

00:31:36.060 John, these tariffs we've heard from the left since 2016.

00:31:39.980 They're going to crash our economy.

00:31:41.740 They're going to do all types of harm that we can never come back from.

00:31:45.780 It's going to kill the American people. 0.91

00:31:47.120 It's going to kill the American job. 0.89

00:31:48.820 It's going to kill the American economy.

00:31:50.800 We're not going to be able to afford anything.

00:31:52.940 Well, if I look at it the way it is right now, things are pretty unaffordable.

00:31:58.020 If you look at the amount of debt people are in and the price of things and the inflation that's hit them,

00:32:04.100 how much worse can it possibly get under these tariffs that they say is going to get so bad, John?

00:32:07.800 Well, you know, let's not overlook the fact that the imposition of tariffs on exports from Canada, Mexico and China are contingent on these countries doing something to help stop the inflow of illegal immigrants into the United States. 0.73

00:32:28.440 And we go beyond that.

00:32:30.620 Whether or not these tariffs are going to be imposed depends upon the willingness of these three countries to halt the inflow of fentanyl that has contributed to so many deaths in the U.S.,

00:32:45.100 so many so much heartache, my goodness, and anguish and sad.

00:32:48.640 So Trump is using the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tool, a negotiating chip.

00:32:58.340 And the reality is that because we have such a large consumer-driven economy, I mean, he has the balance of power.

00:33:09.400 He has a strong bargaining position dealing with Canada, Mexico and China, I think, on these issues.

00:33:16.600 And I'm pretty sure, given the sad state of affairs as far as China is concerned, the underperformance of the economies of Canada and Mexico,

00:33:26.460 people don't know this, but I think the Canadian economy is growing about 1.2 percent versus we have nearly 3 percent growth in the United States.

00:33:35.740 Likewise, in Mexico, a relatively poor country, you're getting economic growth of less than 2 percent.

00:33:42.120 These countries are in a weak position vis-a-vis the United States, and perhaps they have no choice but to agree to do more,

00:33:52.060 to halt the inflow of illegal immigrants and the inflow of fentanyl into the United States.

00:33:58.680 And this would be, you know, a feather in Trump's cap if he manages to successfully get what he wants.

00:34:06.120 You know, if you look at, John, if you look at America's imports, among the top three things that they're importing are computer goods.

00:34:16.520 You know, Tim Cook sending his Apple computers over here.

00:34:19.340 And the reason I bring this up, I should preface it with this, is, you know, there's some on the left who say,

00:34:24.140 OK, well, Trump, it's almost like they're playing for the other side, which drives me nuts, John.

00:34:28.640 You see these folks on Twitter, and hopefully you don't spend as much time on Twitter as I do because it makes me angry.

00:34:33.020 But you see these folks on Twitter who are, like, rooting against America.

00:34:37.300 You know, oh, Trump puts tariffs on them.

00:34:39.400 They're going to get us with tariffs, you know.

00:34:40.980 So if you look at among the top three things that America imports cost-wise, luxury vehicles from Germany.

00:34:48.440 It's OK.

00:34:48.780 You guys want to put tariffs on?

00:34:50.220 That's fine.

00:34:50.780 The person who's driving the BMW everywhere anyway is not the average American who's, you know, driving a regular car.

00:34:57.480 OK.

00:34:58.100 Who are you going to hurt then?

00:34:58.960 You're going to hurt the rich people.

00:34:59.960 OK, fine.

00:35:02.160 Computers.

00:35:02.520 Tim Cook.

00:35:03.400 I guess, Tim, you're going to have to find a place out of China to start making your computers.

00:35:07.880 And if you want to keep selling computers, because I'd have to assume America is probably the number one consumer of Apple products in the world.

00:35:14.860 OK, Tim Cook, maybe it's time for you to learn your lesson and go start making them somewhere else.

00:35:19.340 I understand that there's certain things you can't make in America.

00:35:22.860 The labor costs are way too high.

00:35:25.660 Getting the parts, it's way too high.

00:35:28.000 That's fine.

00:35:28.400 And I believe last time we spoke, John, about them going down to South America to start making things.

00:35:32.680 So, Tim Cook, you'll learn your lesson there.

00:35:34.900 And then the other thing is fuel, petroleum.

00:35:38.500 As President Trump says, we have the most liquid gold right here under our feet.

00:35:41.900 Why are we importing it in the first place, John?

00:35:44.140 It makes no sense.

00:35:46.540 I mean, my goodness, you could go ahead and help bring inflation down pretty quickly if the federal government, instead of discouraging drilling for oil and natural gas, tries to encourage the production of oil and natural gas.

00:36:03.140 That's just another example where the Democratic Party failed to make the American people understand just how very costly this pursuit of zero carbon emissions is.

00:36:17.780 Do you really want to go down that path?

00:36:20.120 Well, you know, you have to be willing to pay the cost.

00:36:23.100 And as you hinted at, these costs are going to be borne unequally.

00:36:29.240 People with a lot of money, upper income Americans, are not going to feel the same amount of economic pain as middle income and lower income Americans will if you follow through with further reductions in the ability of the United States to drill for oil and natural gas.

00:36:49.140 John, I got another thing we got to talk about because it's just happening this week as if the not so bright have gotten dimmer out in California.

00:36:58.360 They just approved the ban of gas powered cars to sell the gas to sell gas powered cars by 2035.

00:37:07.200 I mean, you see what happened in this election with regard to New York.

00:37:12.460 President Trump getting a million more votes in New York this time than he did last time.

00:37:16.240 California, very similar numbers.

00:37:17.900 President Trump won Beverly Hills County, John, the probably most liberal place in America, where if you walk down the street and you're wearing one of these hats, it's over for you.

00:37:28.580 President Trump winning Beverly Hills, California for the first time in a very long time.

00:37:34.740 Do these people not read the writing on the wall, John?

00:37:38.040 With this last election, you want to go ahead now and ban gas cars because everyone could go out and afford to go buy yourself a brand new electric vehicle.

00:37:47.900 Yeah, you have to have the charging stations and whatnot.

00:37:50.960 You have to have the electric power generation capacity to provide the power so you could use electric cars.

00:38:00.160 Because on top of that, you know, talking about electric generation capacity, let's not forget about the demands now being imposed on power generation by the development of artificial intelligence.

00:38:13.640 My goodness, that's supposedly going to soak up, I don't know, billions of kilowatts in order to reach its full potential.

00:38:24.260 So, but where's the electric power going to come from?

00:38:29.120 It's going to come from natural gas powered plants, maybe a few oil powered plants and perhaps nuclear plants.

00:38:36.600 But all of a sudden, of course, these people that were so opposed to nuclear energy are now very much in favor of it so that they can get full use of artificial intelligence.

00:38:47.720 And perhaps at the same time, have enough power left over for electric vehicles and you need a transmission facilities.

00:38:56.060 And so many communities don't want these new power lines going through their community.

00:39:01.740 We go on and on with all of the problems that these grandiose plans and goals of the Democratic Party present to the United States.

00:39:12.720 Yeah. You know, the other thing people don't talk about it, I talk about it often on the shows, where do you dispose of the batteries, John?

00:39:19.360 Where do you if you care about the environment so much?

00:39:22.400 If you're a simple engineer, it doesn't take an engineer to figure it out.

00:39:26.760 If you're a simple engineer as an American folk, where do you dispose of these batteries, these lithium ion batteries that if catch fire, these things explode?

00:39:35.200 Where do you dispose of them if you care so much about this environment?

00:39:37.560 Well, you're going to put them in the same place where you put the spec uranium fuel rods, I guess, bury them in some mountain in Nevada.

00:39:45.880 Right.

00:39:48.260 It's these people, you know, I can't really fathom what goes through their mind.

00:39:53.200 They can't think ahead. That's what it comes down to.

00:39:56.200 They can't fully appreciate how complex their goals are and how difficult and how costly it will be to reach these goals.

00:40:04.740 Maybe it's best to just allow the market to decide how we're going to proceed with whatever powers motor vehicles.

00:40:13.920 You know, you have climate change.

00:40:15.460 You know, if you have a lot of storms or fires in an area, the insurance companies will help you solve that problem.

00:40:21.960 Rates start going sky high.

00:40:23.980 People will learn their lesson and try to avoid areas that are susceptible to natural disasters.

00:40:30.880 I mean, to be quite frank, if you want to get rid of fossil fuels, the most efficient way of doing so is by increasing the federal excise taxes on fossil fuels.

00:40:43.360 But believe me, no politician is willing to propose to do that if they have any hope of getting reelected.

00:40:51.460 John, not bad for an economist.

00:40:52.740 It's almost like you have a brain that a lot of these it's it all boils down.

00:40:58.560 It doesn't take a brain science.

00:40:59.740 I'm not saying you're an honest and you're a very smart man, but you're not a environmentalist.

00:41:04.760 You're not any of that stuff.

00:41:05.860 You're not an engineer.

00:41:06.540 You're an economist and you understand it.

00:41:08.920 And, you know, I think a lot of people on the show, if not the whole entire audience, understands what's going on, what the government's trying to do to us.

00:41:16.120 I want to talk about something else that the government's trying to do to us, and it's trying to pass a fifteen hundred page omnibus before Christmas, just as they like to do every single year.

00:41:29.200 Passing of Mike Johnson's woke policies, whatever he wants.

00:41:33.680 Also, we mentioned real wages stagnant.

00:41:36.680 John Congress, those members of Congress somehow are going to be voting for a 20 percent raise for themselves, a little bit higher than inflation.

00:41:44.880 So they're you know, they're getting the long end of the stick.

00:41:46.980 Very nice for those folks.

00:41:48.700 They're going to be making over two hundred thousand dollars a year, almost three times more than the average household median income in America.

00:41:55.640 Thirty. What are we at?

00:41:56.720 Thirty two trillion, thirty three trillion dollars in debt.

00:41:58.980 Now, John, what's going on with these folks in D.C.?

00:42:02.180 Yeah, that's all.

00:42:06.000 Yeah, it's really amazing, isn't it?

00:42:07.780 It's just crazy.

00:42:08.580 You know, you're running a deficit of over six percent of GDP.

00:42:11.860 Historically, you don't get a budget deficit above six percent of GDP unless you are in a recession, unless you have high unemployment.

00:42:21.360 But by the way, today we have a near full employment economy.

00:42:25.020 And nevertheless, we still run this huge federal budget deficit.

00:42:28.960 And I guess that's one of the reasons why you should not be confident about disinflation becoming well established in 2025.

00:42:39.900 OK, so the people in Washington, let them have their last fling.

00:42:45.220 This is it, because come inauguration day around January 20th, things will change dramatically, I believe.

00:42:53.760 And it will be following the inauguration, a time of some significant belt tightening in D.C., a time of material reductions and federal spending that are so very important.

00:43:08.940 If we are going to get rid of this inflation problem, if we're going to get interest rates and mortgage yields back to where they were prior to COVID, say, in 2019.

00:43:21.020 We haven't had a budget passed in, I think, over 20 years, maybe more.

00:43:25.000 I don't understand why the Republicans are so feckless in the sense, shut the government down.

00:43:32.100 Let this thing molt for a little bit.

00:43:34.880 Let the constituents call these members of Congress, the folks on this show, probably we give out the number every single day, who call these folks and tell them what they want.

00:43:43.680 We didn't vote for this stuff.

00:43:45.580 I mean, what are we going to do when I have kids and I have to explain to them, well, now we're $60 trillion in debt.

00:43:49.740 And we have no plan to pay that off, which means there's only one possible thing, John, and we default on that.

00:43:56.460 You and I both know what happens.

00:43:58.280 Everyone knows what happens when you default on something, you lose it.

00:44:01.700 What's that going to do to American currency when eventually one day we default on it because we can't simply keep printing money anymore and people don't respect the dollar anymore because it's worth absolutely nothing because these politicians decided to run our debt up.

00:44:15.420 And I'm saying $60 trillion.

00:44:16.920 And it's probably going to be more than that one day, hopefully not in my lifetime, but the way things are going, it's looking awfully like that.

00:44:24.040 Why don't the Republicans say, OK, that's fine.

00:44:26.640 Shut it down.

00:44:27.840 President Trump just won.

00:44:28.920 It was a referendum, John.

00:44:30.360 They have the House.

00:44:31.220 They have the Senate.

00:44:32.280 Shut this thing down for a few days.

00:44:33.660 Shut this thing down for a week.

00:44:35.140 Let President Trump get back into office.

00:44:36.940 The other thing is, if you don't want to shut it down, why can't you pass single line items?

00:44:43.520 OK, the DOD needs X amount of money to function.

00:44:46.660 Boom.

00:44:47.320 The Department of Education.

00:44:48.520 I just mentioned these two off the top ones that I wouldn't even like to be funded.

00:44:52.020 But the Department of Education, X amount of money.

00:44:54.460 Why is it that we have something in the budget about subpoenas, about subpoenaing power for people's for committees?

00:45:02.320 What does that have to do with the budget?

00:45:04.880 Congress giving themselves a raise.

00:45:06.340 What does that have to do with funding the DOD, the Department of Education, John?

00:45:12.100 I really don't know.

00:45:13.420 I don't even know why we have a Department of Education.

00:45:16.380 It seems as though since we've had a Department of Education, educational standards in the United States have worsened.

00:45:23.540 I mean, let education be run locally, not from the federal level.

00:45:28.820 And it worked very well in the past.

00:45:31.800 And centralizing government control over education has been a disaster, at least.

00:45:40.140 So look at where we rank relative to other countries in terms of educational achievement.

00:45:45.560 Horrible.

00:45:45.920 We're usually, what, 15th to 20th place.

00:45:48.700 Matt's sad, given all the money we spend on education.

00:45:51.800 Never mind spending so much on education and getting such a lousy return.

00:45:57.340 Look at health care.

00:45:58.720 We spend a huge amount of money on health care.

00:46:02.540 And yet we find that this is a relatively unhealthy population in the United States compared to other advanced economies.

00:46:11.480 There's so much that needs to be done in D.C.

00:46:14.160 And, you know, I would say this is going to be the last gasp for those big spenders in Washington, that everything should be changing after Inauguration Day.

00:46:26.860 And, you know, as I noted earlier, that these major changes, these pullbacks in government spending, unfortunately, are going to entail some pain.

00:46:37.460 It seems President Trump is literally the only man, not in D.C. yet, but who's been in D.C., who has the gut to go ahead and say, shut it down.

00:46:46.640 He famously told Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, which they paraded, shut the thing down.

00:46:51.760 I'll take the responsibility for it.

00:46:53.600 He's the only man, I think, probably that I've ever seen in my lifetime who is trying to cut the national debt, who's trying to get a balanced budget through.

00:47:03.080 If COVID didn't happen, his plans were to start paying down the national debt.

00:47:06.160 It would have been the first time we've seen a president do it in how long, John?

00:47:09.340 It seems that things are just things that are just common sense, aren't so common for these folks in D.C.

00:47:15.060 And I don't know if it's on purpose, John, or if it's by design, but it doesn't seem like there's one person there.

00:47:20.920 A lot of these guys come out, they'll go on Fox News, they'll go on CNN, they talk tough.

00:47:25.360 But when push comes to shove, they go ahead and vote for that C.R., that continuing resolution, C.R. after C.R. after C.R.

00:47:32.760 I don't think Mike Johnson's the man for the job.

00:47:34.900 As we wrap up here, what's your thoughts on how we push forward into this new year?

00:47:39.160 Do you think the Republicans grow a backbone and say enough's enough?

00:47:42.160 We've seen enough.

00:47:43.720 Our grandchildren have a country that they need to be left to them.

00:47:47.420 Our children need a country to be left to them.

00:47:50.760 What do we see going into this new year in regard to this omnibus?

00:47:54.640 Well, John, I hope we see that backbone come January.

00:47:58.820 I mean, that's so important to the future of this country.

00:48:01.900 And the Republicans have to be willing to take the risk of imposing some pain on Washington

00:48:12.620 for, you know, the purpose of putting this country back on the road to prosperity,

00:48:19.040 on the road to real wage growth, on the road to hope as far as younger Americans are concerned about their economic future.

00:48:29.720 Yeah, and this country's security.

00:48:32.440 One thing I had left out there, as Mike Johnson tweeted out earlier this year when he took over the gavel,

00:48:38.400 there will be no budget passed if it doesn't have border security in it.

00:48:42.980 Lo and behold, John, there's no border security in this bill. 0.96

00:48:45.160 I just had to get that in there to let the people know that this man is a snake.

00:48:49.180 Luce called him from what he is from the beginning.

00:48:51.340 We got calls from his office to please relent and back up.

00:48:54.320 When I told Lou about those calls, Lou says, I will do no such thing.

00:48:57.860 And as a matter of fact, I will go harder now because, you know, there's very few people, John,

00:49:02.900 as you know, you know, Lou for a very long time.

00:49:05.180 There was very few people who were willing to call it out for what it was.

00:49:08.600 And we all miss him and his loud voice because there's nobody who's willing to go ahead and say enough's enough.

00:49:17.360 That's that, John.

00:49:18.720 We hope you have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.

00:49:20.720 And we hope that when we talk to you in the new year, this country is off to a good start

00:49:25.340 or a better start than we were off to this past new year.

00:49:30.240 Yeah, we hope that we're in a position several months from now where we can have hope for the future

00:49:35.880 and some faith in the operation of the federal government, which right now is sadly lacking.

00:49:43.400 You know, there's just too many young people out there that don't have any confidence in the future.

00:49:48.420 And there needs to be changes that begin in Washington, that begin with the presidency and with the Congress

00:49:55.680 that puts this country on firm footing for the future.

00:50:02.040 I'll end with this, as Colonel McGregor reminded me on yesterday's show.

00:50:06.160 As Lou famously used to say, America's got the best government money can buy.

00:50:10.900 It's true.

00:50:12.200 John, Merry Christmas, brother.

00:50:13.520 We'll talk to you.

00:50:14.000 Merry Christmas, John.

00:50:15.140 Happy New Year.

00:50:15.820 Thanks, everybody, for joining us today here on The Great America Show.

00:50:19.360 We hope you'll join us back here tomorrow.

00:50:21.200 Same time, same place, where our quest for truth, justice, and the American way continues.

00:50:26.160 Until then, may God bless you.

00:50:27.720 May God bless America.

00:50:29.180 And may God bless the great Lou Dobbs.

00:50:30.960 May God bless America.

00:50:32.320 We pray for you.

00:50:35.820 May God bless America.

00:50:36.600 May God bless America.

00:50:36.840 May God bless America.

00:50:37.720 May God bless America.

00:50:39.560 May God bless America.

00:50:40.840 May God bless America.

00:50:41.320 May God bless America.

00:50:42.420 May God bless America.

00:50:43.220 May God bless America.

00:50:44.000 May God bless America.

00:50:45.100 May God bless America.

00:50:45.260 May God bless America.

00:50:45.880 May God bless America.

00:50:47.620 May God bless America.

00:50:47.900 May God bless America.

00:50:48.680 May God bless America.

00:50:49.760 May God bless America.

00:50:51.920 May God bless America.

00:50:51.980 May God bless America.

00:50:53.860 May God bless America.

00:50:54.240 May God bless America.

00:50:54.900 May God bless America.

00:50:55.480 May God bless America.

00:50:56.280 May God bless America.

The Great America Show - January 02, 2025

The Best Of The Great America Show： January 2, 2025

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