The Great America Show - October 12, 2024


The Great America Saturday Show： October 12, 2024


Episode Stats


Length

55 minutes

Words per minute

187.98712

Word count

10,468

Sentence count

826

Harmful content

Misogyny

19

sentences flagged

Hate speech

17

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode of The Great America Show, host Jake Tapper is joined by Robert Cahaley of the Trafalgar Group to discuss where things stand in the race between President Trump and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA).

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Great America Show.
00:00:05.220 It's great to have you with us today.
00:00:07.000 We're just 25 days now from the election, which seems like it's very short, but yet
00:00:11.360 so far, a year and a half now, we've went through this race, President Trump versus
00:00:17.640 first Joe Biden, and then Joe Biden was thrown off the ballot by Kamala Harris, because Kamala 1.00
00:00:22.680 Harris is the biggest threat to democracy this country has ever seen.
00:00:26.340 Contrary to what the Democrats want to tell you, January 6th, President Trump, all the
00:00:29.980 things President Trump has done bad in this country, all you have to do is look back to
00:00:33.580 the summer when Kamala Harris stole the nomination from Donald Trump.
00:00:38.860 It's been a little bit since the debate between President Trump and Kamala Harris, and we still
00:00:43.020 have yet to see Kamala Harris do a formal press conference or news conference, but she has
00:00:46.920 no problem going on late night television or The View, because it's her comfort space.
00:00:51.120 They're Marxist Dems, they prop her up, and they do all they can to try to get her across 0.85
00:00:55.740 the finish line in this next 25 days until the election.
00:00:59.260 The polls are certainly tight and tighter than we'd all like to see them between President
00:01:03.480 Trump and Kamala Harris.
00:01:04.960 So to get an update on just what's going on and where we sit right now, or who do we believe
00:01:08.820 for these polls, I want to bring in our guest today.
00:01:11.380 He's chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group.
00:01:13.600 He's Robert Cahaley.
00:01:15.140 Robert, you're among probably the top three pollsters in this country going back to 2016
00:01:21.480 and some of the races in 2020.
00:01:23.880 As for accuracy, which seems like it's kind of hard to do in your business with so many,
00:01:29.220 I don't know if they're liars or just deceptive people.
00:01:33.460 Where does the race, in your opinion, sit right now?
00:01:36.860 Going through some of your polls this morning, if we were listening to Robert Cahaley of Trafalgar,
00:01:42.300 President Trump has this thing in the bag.
00:01:44.600 Well, thank you.
00:01:47.000 And before I get started, I just wanted to say I really have missed Lou a lot, and he's
00:01:55.320 somebody I thought a whole lot of and followed his career from back when he was on CNN Money
00:02:01.140 and just wanted to pay my respects and how much I miss him.
00:02:07.880 But, you know, he wants to go on.
00:02:11.460 He wants to win this election.
00:02:12.820 I know that much.
00:02:13.560 And we do have a very close election.
00:02:16.840 Now, when you talk about the liars, are you talking about the pollsters or are you talking
00:02:20.120 about the people?
00:02:20.980 Because I think it's probably the pollsters.
00:02:24.400 Yeah, I think some.
00:02:25.960 I mean, you know, there's obviously some out there that are in the tank from one side or
00:02:30.720 the other, and it's just really obvious.
00:02:33.120 And then there are others.
00:02:35.080 And, you know, though we might be a Republican or they may be a Democrat, they do a pretty honest
00:02:42.320 shop.
00:02:43.320 You know, RealClear put out their ratings for the last eight years.
00:02:47.380 And we're the number one private sector polling firm.
00:02:50.200 And the only one that did more than 10 polls a year ahead of us was Emerson College.
00:02:55.140 And Insider Advantage is right below us.
00:03:00.100 And Insider Advantage with Matt Towery is he and I do a podcast together once a week called
00:03:05.900 Polling Plus.
00:03:07.240 You can get a lot of in-depth knowledge and just hear me and Matt going back and forth once
00:03:12.420 a week on what's happening.
00:03:13.720 But what we are seeing is a very close race.
00:03:17.380 And it's, you know, we're starting to see some states that are looking a little more secure.
00:03:23.600 And early, you know, a couple weeks ago, I would have told you that I felt best about
00:03:29.260 Arizona and North Carolina.
00:03:31.600 Now, I'm going to get to the storm in a minute, but I still feel very good about Arizona as
00:03:36.920 far as I think Trump has a good margin there.
00:03:40.520 And they're just on the front lines of this, all this immigration stuff.
00:03:46.100 They've really seen it and they've seen the cost of it.
00:03:49.140 And they understand the cost of the federal lack of response.
00:03:54.280 Now, the most recent one that we put out was Pennsylvania.
00:03:59.940 And Pennsylvania, we saw for the first time a little bit of a separation.
00:04:03.720 We saw Trump up by 2.2 and that was the biggest margin we've seen him up.
00:04:09.680 There's been subsequent polls.
00:04:11.580 I think Inside Advantage put one out yesterday with Trump up by two points.
00:04:16.740 And I think Atlas Intel had Trump up maybe about three.
00:04:20.240 So, you know, and Atlas Intel also had a very good record in 2020.
00:04:24.600 They had the lowest error rate.
00:04:26.100 We had the second lowest error rate.
00:04:28.040 And, you know, the ones that kind of don't have their thumb on this guy are starting to
00:04:32.980 show Pennsylvania looking good.
00:04:35.100 Now, let's be clear.
00:04:36.880 Pennsylvania is a place that has shenanigans.
00:04:41.100 And I've always...
00:04:42.300 You can't say...
00:04:42.800 Robert, you can't say that.
00:04:44.320 You're going to get sued.
00:04:46.000 I said shenanigans.
00:04:47.700 That's all I said.
00:04:49.260 And there are things that happen in Pennsylvania that just are very, very strange.
00:04:54.700 And a lot of it has to...
00:04:56.320 Well, I'm not going to get into the specifics.
00:04:57.700 But the point is, I've always said, and this goes back to 2016, you got to win Pennsylvania
00:05:03.860 by two and a half to win Pennsylvania.
00:05:05.960 So, I think Trump may be on the way to that.
00:05:10.500 It may be a razor-thin victory.
00:05:14.380 I am particularly...
00:05:16.080 You know, I think Michigan is going toward him both because of the union workers and how
00:05:25.000 they feel about the electric car mandates and so many of the Arab or Muslim community
00:05:30.980 that is in the suburbs of Detroit that are just disenchanted with the Democrats.
00:05:38.960 Right.
00:05:39.580 And if they sit it out like they did in the primary, I think we can see kind of the same
00:05:44.020 result.
00:05:44.900 Wisconsin, I mean, Wisconsin comes down to Madison.
00:05:47.400 Last time, it was half a point.
00:05:50.120 We were the best poll in the nation on that.
00:05:52.760 ABC News, I believe, said Trump would lose by 12 there.
00:05:56.920 And it was, like I said, half a point.
00:05:59.100 But, you know, Nevada is just a place that I've learned the hard way.
00:06:04.060 What happens the last weekend in Nevada with these union workers and the buses to get them 0.73
00:06:09.020 there to vote and the people coming to the doors, banging on the door, asking for the
00:06:14.080 FC ballots, it is a tremendous effort to get those ballots in.
00:06:21.000 And I've seen Republican advantages wiped away a few times in Nevada.
00:06:26.080 So, I'm not prepared to say Nevada is going to be a win for the Republicans.
00:06:30.600 I'm not going to make a mistake on that one again.
00:06:33.200 Right.
00:06:33.820 That's the only one I've ever gotten wrong three times.
00:06:35.820 You know, we were talking about that before the race, and I told you I just got back from
00:06:40.820 there.
00:06:41.600 And after just seeing the landscape and the political landscape of it all, I had a bunch
00:06:45.920 of meetings out there.
00:06:47.200 I told you I'm not, you know, even a little bit masked people everywhere throughout the
00:06:54.160 airports, masked people.
00:06:55.320 Now, granted, a lot of them are tourists.
00:06:56.840 It's probably the biggest tourist spot in America.
00:06:59.100 But, you know, I just didn't feel right.
00:07:02.100 You had mentioned some states and shenanigans.
00:07:04.640 And then, you know, I joked about getting sued for it, but I've been the subject of two
00:07:09.280 lawsuits when I worked at Fox News from two election companies because of challenging
00:07:14.360 the shenanigans that happened in some of these states in 2020.
00:07:18.740 And I think there's a difference, though.
00:07:21.440 I mean, from what I understand, I mean, and everybody has their opinions.
00:07:26.000 I've never thought of something with machines.
00:07:28.240 They just don't.
00:07:29.400 That's not my thing.
00:07:30.340 And I think the absentee ballots, the change of the rules is where I think there were problems.
00:07:37.660 I've just I've never been one.
00:07:39.520 Nobody's shown me the data on the machines.
00:07:41.820 So I don't understand if I mean, I hear about people, you know, getting sued over this stuff.
00:07:49.020 I'm like, well, I'm assuming the machine company can only sue you if you talk about the machines.
00:07:53.480 But I don't know.
00:07:55.380 But I mean, you know, there's no question the rules were changed.
00:07:58.680 Yeah, for sure.
00:07:59.880 But at the same time, I mean, if you really understand the Constitution, this is where you get a little deep on this.
00:08:06.000 The Constitution says the state picks whatever method they want to pick their electors, the state legislature.
00:08:12.760 And if the state legislature chooses not to act, then they backed it and they're in action.
00:08:19.260 Right.
00:08:20.120 And that's that.
00:08:21.240 Right.
00:08:22.320 The issue, Robert, I took with it is I had told this to Mike Lindell the other day on an episode of the show is I sat down with these depositions with these lawyers from these election companies.
00:08:33.580 And they sat there and they told me they said, and I don't even know if I'm supposed to be saying this, but I don't really care, to be honest with you.
00:08:39.780 But they sat there and they told me they'd said, you know, SISA came out two days after the election.
00:08:44.520 This is almost a direct quote.
00:08:46.480 SISA came out two days after the election, said this was the most secure election in the history.
00:08:50.480 Why did you go out there and promote something that wasn't true?
00:08:54.600 I said, well, first of all, we don't know.
00:08:55.700 It wasn't true.
00:08:56.880 They said, well, Joe Biden won the presidential election.
00:08:59.940 I said, yes, that's your opinion.
00:09:01.060 And I said, nothing was ever litigated in the courts.
00:09:03.700 I know.
00:09:04.080 So that's your opinion.
00:09:05.540 Number one, I said, number two, you can't file a tax return in this country in less than two months.
00:09:11.160 I said, us as American people, we're skeptical to begin with.
00:09:14.480 And we have every right to be with what this country has seen over the last, we'll say, 150 years.
00:09:19.860 I said, if someone comes out and tells you two days after the election that it was the most secure election in the history of this country after you had almost 200 million people voting in it,
00:09:31.060 aren't you going to be a little skeptical about that?
00:09:34.160 And like I said, I used the reference, Robert, that you can't get a tax return done in less than two months.
00:09:39.520 I mean, you can't get a refund in less than two months.
00:09:41.620 You cannot get your car registered in less than a week in this country.
00:09:46.780 And when American observers go to foreign countries, they don't make a determination in two days.
00:09:51.140 Yeah, of course.
00:09:51.900 So I said to these lawyers, I said, shouldn't that be in itself, you know, like a red flag, like maybe this is a little suspect.
00:10:00.140 And they looked at me like I was crazy.
00:10:01.760 And I said, of course, that's what it is.
00:10:03.000 I mean, that, you know, and I and I pretty much rated these guys.
00:10:05.880 And I said, you guys seem to care more about not the things that went wrong, went wrong, but that you got what you wanted.
00:10:12.680 And that was Joe Biden winning this election, whether it was fair or not.
00:10:16.520 And I mean, I think, you know, like you had said, whether one way or another, whether it be the Hunter Biden laptop, whether it be the laws that were changed for covid for mail-in ballots throughout the 2020 process, there's no way Joe Biden won that election fair and square.
00:10:30.500 It's just not. And you hear constantly from the Marxist left that Donald Trump's a threat to democracy because he didn't accept those those results.
00:10:37.880 And I don't know very many people who would, with the exception of maybe some of these rhino, you know, beta boys on the on the right who just, you know, are part of are part of the machine that are ruining this country and ruining the Republican Party.
00:10:52.260 Robert, I want to take a quick break here. We're coming right back.
00:10:55.140 I want to go further into these polls and further into the thought of a Kamala Harris presidency.
00:11:00.880 It just gives me agita thinking about it. We're talking with Robert Cahaley, chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, one of the best, if not the best pollsters out there.
00:11:10.360 We're coming right back. Stay with us.
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00:13:00.300 We're back.
00:13:01.000 We're talking with the chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaley.
00:13:03.640 Robert, there's a new poll out this week from Reuters and Ipsos.
00:13:07.920 It's got Kamala Harris beating Joe Biden.
00:13:10.940 Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump 47 to 40.
00:13:14.100 Now, I don't know what world these people are in.
00:13:17.420 As I mentioned earlier, I just got back from Vegas.
00:13:19.840 If there's any pollster out there who wants to put their record on the line that Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump by seven points after everything this administration has done to this country, 0.55
00:13:30.640 you can shoot me a message on Twitter.
00:13:32.080 I will take any action you want.
00:13:33.920 We can do it legitimately.
00:13:35.180 I will take any action you want.
00:13:36.920 But for you to put out a poll from an organization, I mean, Reuters is among the best, one of the best newswire reporting outlets,
00:13:43.420 and their pollster division is clearly not one of the best, Robert.
00:13:47.540 How do these people get away with putting out a poll like this, Robert?
00:13:51.320 Well, there's a couple things.
00:13:52.600 One, that's 13% undecided.
00:13:57.640 That's or for somebody else.
00:13:59.980 When you look at how many states have had people kicked off the ballot, that's hard to believe.
00:14:06.400 And what we know is a lot of, quote-unquote, hidden Trump voters hide in undecideds.
00:14:12.160 So what that tells me is they can't get but 47% of the people to admit they're voting to Kamala Harris.
00:14:18.860 The other thing is, and this is nothing, everybody has their own methods, but I've seen lots of polls that are 100 or more questions.
00:14:28.560 And do you know how rare an individual is who answers a 100-question poll?
00:14:35.400 Robert, I didn't even answer 100 questions on a standardized testing when I was in school.
00:14:41.360 Well, I mean, it is absolutely some of the stuff I've seen.
00:14:45.540 Now, I've also seen Ipsos do a lot of great work, especially in other countries.
00:14:49.320 But I've seen those polls that are so long, and I'm like, how in the world?
00:14:54.420 And some of these, I don't know what the Ipsos does, so I don't want to say they do.
00:14:57.840 But some of them use the online panels and things like that.
00:15:01.280 But most importantly, national polls don't matter.
00:15:06.500 It's like measuring, it's like saying, oh, well, this team won the baseball game because they're the most hits.
00:15:12.580 It's an irrelevant statistic.
00:15:14.800 All that matters is state to state.
00:15:17.100 We do not elect presidents in this country.
00:15:19.880 States use an election as a method to pick electors in this country.
00:15:24.640 And so that's kind of irrelevant.
00:15:27.480 And again, that high level of, I don't know where those undecideds are falling, but in many of those states, they don't have any other options, major options on the ballot, because the Democrats fought so hard to keep people off.
00:15:39.820 So I don't put a lot of stock into that, and I'm sure that will serve its purpose probably and change the average in favor of Harris even more.
00:15:52.860 But the fact is, it doesn't matter.
00:15:54.860 And Republicans can lose the popular vote on average by about two and a half to three points and still win the Electoral College.
00:16:03.900 Right.
00:16:04.560 I'm glad you brought that up because it brings us to one of our many topics we'll talk about today.
00:16:10.040 Tim Walts has been campaigning with Gavin Newsom in California for something called national popular vote.
00:16:15.980 And pretty much they're back at it where they want to abolish the Electoral College.
00:16:19.820 And why wouldn't you when you've let 20 plus, maybe 30 million illegals into this country that can all register to vote?
00:16:26.760 Whether you want to say they can or they can't, New York and illegal who had a driver's license as soon as they get into this country, be insured by an insurance company and on the road driving.
00:16:36.880 So the Democrats plan obviously is very clear and it's right in front of our face.
00:16:41.000 And if you talk about it, Robert, you're a racist because you don't want illegals in this country. 1.00
00:16:45.580 You don't want illegals voting in our election because the men who built this country, the men who went overseas and and fall for this country and sacrifice their life for this country means absolutely nothing to these Democrats because all they care about is power.
00:17:00.180 The Democrats, there's no doubt about it, in my opinion, and I think opinion of a lot of others are the biggest threat to democracy.
00:17:06.380 Like I mentioned in the monologue, they stole the Kamala Harris and her Marxist cohorts stole the election from Joe Biden. 0.59
00:17:14.340 I mean, she never received one vote in a primary in her entire life, yet somehow pushed this man out of the race.
00:17:21.160 And I can't stand Joe Biden, but I hate Kamala Harris even more because of what she did. 1.00
00:17:25.300 I mean, how do you how do you do that to somebody and then go out there, Robert, and parade yourself as, you know, the party that's holier than thou, that can't do no wrong, you know, and on the other side, say that the Republicans are the biggest threat to democracy.
00:17:40.360 I don't think anyone believes Kamala Harris is an honest person.
00:17:43.720 She has a track record of nothing but lies and deceit. 1.00
00:17:47.340 She's never held a policy decision.
00:17:49.300 And I think that she's followed through and through.
00:17:52.040 I want to play for you a clip Kamala Harris on with Colbert.
00:17:54.960 And as I mentioned, she hasn't done any formal press conferences, just late night television and The View with Whoopi and the gang.
00:18:01.500 But I want to play this for you because it just shows who Kamala Harris is.
00:18:05.420 And, you know, hats off to Colbert for asking her semi-tough question.
00:18:09.860 Polling shows that a lot of people, especially independent voters, really want this to be a change election.
00:18:15.980 And that they tend to break for you in terms of thinking about change.
00:18:20.520 You are a member of the president administration.
00:18:23.400 Under a Harris administration, what would the major changes be?
00:18:28.900 And what would stay the same?
00:18:30.560 Sure.
00:18:31.100 Well, I mean, I'm obviously not Joe Biden.
00:18:33.840 I noticed.
00:18:34.140 And so that would be one change in terms of.
00:18:38.100 But also, I think it's important to say with, you know, 28 days to go, I'm not Donald Trump.
00:18:43.900 And so when we think about the significance of what this next generation of leadership looks like, were I to be elected president, it is about, frankly, I love the American people.
00:18:59.280 And I believe in our country.
00:19:01.740 I love that it is our character and nature to be an ambitious people.
00:19:08.340 You know, we have aspirations.
00:19:11.100 We have dreams.
00:19:12.220 We are we have incredible work ethic.
00:19:16.020 And and and I just believe that we can create and build upon the success we've achieved in a way that we continue to grow opportunity.
00:19:25.960 And in that way, grow the strength of our nation.
00:19:28.200 So, for example, my economic policies, I I think of it and I have named it as creating an opportunity economy.
00:19:34.140 So it's about things like investing in small businesses.
00:19:37.240 I love our small businesses.
00:19:40.860 Robert, I had no idea what the hell she said.
00:19:43.520 I mean, work ethic, Kamala Harris, work ethic.
00:19:46.900 I mean, she was handed everything her whole entire life, considered herself a public servant, never had a real job in her life.
00:19:54.620 But the only thing I got from that was after she was asked the question, what change will you bring?
00:19:58.260 I'm not Donald Trump and I'm not Joe Biden.
00:20:00.340 Well, Robert Cahili, my name is John Fawson and I'm a man.
00:20:02.640 And I think that states itself, if I were to give you my driver's license, I you know, I don't know what goes through her brain.
00:20:09.700 She's genuinely I say this often because if you say it any other way, the left and I don't care what they think of me, but they'll call you misogynist because she's a woman.
00:20:18.700 It has nothing to do with her being a woman.
00:20:20.240 Joe Biden is dumb as dirt and he's a man.
00:20:22.940 Contrary to what the left wants to say, he could be a woman. 0.94
00:20:25.020 He's a man.
00:20:27.420 Kamala Harris, Hillary Clinton in 2016, I couldn't stand her. 1.00
00:20:30.280 She was not genuine.
00:20:31.840 She's but she's a smart person.
00:20:33.560 I don't think anyone will dispute that.
00:20:35.100 Hillary is a smart person and she had class and she had decorum. 1.00
00:20:39.380 This woman has zero class, zero decorum and is dumb as dirt. 1.00
00:20:44.500 Robert, how could swing state voters?
00:20:46.560 I mean, going through your polls, you've got President Trump leading Kamala Harris by about three points in Michigan.
00:20:52.220 In Wisconsin, you have leading by just over one point.
00:20:55.600 You'd spoke about Pennsylvania.
00:20:57.040 You got a leaning by just over two points.
00:21:00.140 Georgia, you have him up by about two points.
00:21:02.900 Nevada, he's down, which like we had spoke about earlier, I don't really trust it to begin with.
00:21:08.840 You have him down about two points in Nevada.
00:21:12.000 Arizona, you have President Trump leading by just about two percentage points.
00:21:16.960 North Carolina, you have President Trump leading by 0.4%.
00:21:20.860 And then across your swing state debate poll, you have President Trump leading by about a half a percent, a little less than a half percent.
00:21:29.860 How could, you know, voters across these states make this mistake?
00:21:34.480 You know, airing out all the shenanigans, as you like to call them.
00:21:39.300 And I'll start, I'm going to start using that word in the best interest of litigation.
00:21:43.120 But when you have in Wisconsin, you have 20,000, 30,000 ballots being sent out to people who cannot prove their identity, that they're allowed to vote in the first place.
00:21:52.640 People would say, oh, 20,000 is really nothing.
00:21:55.360 President Trump had lost the state by, I think, a margin of 10 or 12,000 in 2020.
00:22:00.120 So 20,000 now is double that.
00:22:01.580 Okay, there's your votes.
00:22:03.920 Arizona, you had hundreds.
00:22:05.260 First, we thought it was 100,000.
00:22:06.920 Now you find out it's, I think, 200,000 invalid votes being sent out.
00:22:11.340 And these aren't, there's not, when voters, when votes are sent out, mail-in ballots are sent out, there's not a code for each person that's sent a mail-in ballot that, you know, ballot 101 is Robert Cahaley.
00:22:21.000 We get this ballot back.
00:22:22.000 We know Robert Cahaley voted for X.
00:22:24.380 Ballot 102, John Fawcett.
00:22:26.240 We get ballot back 102.
00:22:27.480 We know John Fawcett, he only voted one.
00:22:28.960 It's not like that.
00:22:29.700 It's a piece of paper that's sent out, and when it gets put back in, it's put into a tabulator or however they count them, and it's put in there.
00:22:36.780 How do you get back 200,000 votes, 200,000 absentee ballots?
00:22:40.700 How do you get back 20,000 in Wisconsin?
00:22:43.280 You know, the secretaries of state said, well, please just send us back the ballots.
00:22:46.520 Well, if I'm a Democrat, I'm not sending them back.
00:22:48.900 I'm going to vote two or three or four times, Robert.
00:22:50.900 What are your thoughts on that?
00:22:51.880 Well, first of all, we wouldn't want the ballots to have a name on it because that loses the integrity of the ballot box, but there should be an outer envelope and an inner envelope, and the outer envelope ought to have something that ties back to the voter.
00:23:07.660 You can verify a barcode or something like that, and then once you open it, it's verified.
00:23:12.580 Then you dump that anonymous ballot in the box.
00:23:17.000 There is a way to do this.
00:23:18.660 There's a way to make voting by mail the most secure way to vote, but so many states choose not to do that, and until you start with the voter ID.
00:23:29.140 I mean, voter ID is really the threshold.
00:23:31.540 I mean, we have so many states that don't have that.
00:23:34.980 You need that.
00:23:36.140 I mean, I get this all the time.
00:23:38.900 Well, how can the Republicans say that they don't like early voting and then tell them to vote early?
00:23:44.200 Isn't that inconsistent?
00:23:45.760 Isn't that hypocritical?
00:23:46.780 And my answer is no.
00:23:48.900 It's not hypocritical.
00:23:50.260 You can hate the infield fly rule, but you have to play the baseball game based upon it. 0.94
00:23:56.840 Now, if you want to go to the winner meeting and maybe change it, fine.
00:24:01.080 But the fact is, once it's a rule, you have to figure out how to win using it.
00:24:06.140 Even though you oppose the rule.
00:24:08.080 So I think it makes sense to do things where the Republicans are to make sure that we don't have such a huge drop.
00:24:16.340 I mean, 80% of what contributed people's suspicion about the election was not knowing election night who won.
00:24:24.240 I mean, the fact is, how can states as big as Texas and Florida and North Carolina count all their ballots on time and report them?
00:24:34.520 And then, you know, states that all seem to go one direction, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, Michigan, take so long to count their ballots.
00:24:45.940 It just it creates it creates a question because then there are other questions.
00:24:51.600 And that is, what's the chain of custody?
00:24:54.300 Right.
00:24:54.440 I mean, you know, if we had early voting and in every early voting county or precinct, there was a camera on the ballot box and we, you know, kind of like blockchain, everybody could look at it.
00:25:06.500 I'd feel better about it.
00:25:07.740 Yeah.
00:25:07.940 I mean, the more eyes are on it, the better.
00:25:10.200 And I do think we'll have a lot more scrutiny this year.
00:25:12.500 There are a lot of people with a lot of camera phones that are going to be in people's business watching this election more than it's ever been watched.
00:25:21.300 And I think and I think that that's good for democracy.
00:25:24.620 You know, the more eyes you have, the better.
00:25:27.160 But the one thing I do want to mention is this storm.
00:25:29.880 This storm is having an impact.
00:25:31.500 First of all, right now, a lot of the areas that have been hit, save downtown Augusta and Asheville.
00:25:40.900 And downtown Asheville, the rest of the suburbs and areas around are big time Republican areas in Georgia, northern Georgia and western North Carolina.
00:25:51.100 These are very big Republican areas.
00:25:53.280 And some of them have been wiped out.
00:25:55.420 Now, there are a lot of angry voters there.
00:25:58.300 But my question is, explain the mechanics.
00:26:02.180 How do they vote?
00:26:03.780 How do they vote if their precinct doesn't exist anymore?
00:26:07.100 How do they vote if the mail truck can't handle the delivery route?
00:26:11.700 What is the system?
00:26:15.300 What are the mechanics?
00:26:16.460 Now, do I think that they'll try very hard in Georgia?
00:26:18.840 Yes.
00:26:19.600 And do I think they're going to try very hard in Florida?
00:26:21.320 Because Florida was also hit significantly.
00:26:23.060 But, you know, I got to wonder how anxious Roy Cooper is to make sure everybody gets to vote in North Carolina.
00:26:30.460 I think he'll be on the ground picking up ballots in Asheville.
00:26:33.000 But where will he be in the other counties?
00:26:36.600 The good news is, Robert, I think it's a Trump voter is is is more fired up now than we've ever been before.
00:26:41.860 So I don't think and we're praying for all those people who have been hit now, Florida and throw up the up the northeastern seaboard.
00:26:49.940 But yeah, Florida, I mean, just I mean, think about that.
00:26:53.120 I mean, my gosh, that was going to come right through a very solid area.
00:26:56.640 I mean, it's just so many people that have been hit so hard so many times.
00:27:01.100 And, you know, hats off to Governor DeSantis refusing to take Kamala Harris's call because it all it's a political stunt. 0.97
00:27:06.800 Everyone knows the vice president is second in line.
00:27:09.720 And they're really their only role is to take over for the president.
00:27:13.400 Should something happen to them?
00:27:14.640 They make they make no policy decisions.
00:27:16.420 They sit in on meetings and they nod their head. Yes, they nod their head. No.
00:27:20.020 So for Kamala Harris to be trying to pull that political stunt and I, you know, 1.00
00:27:23.480 I've grown to like Ron DeSantis a little bit more since the primary concluded.
00:27:27.260 But, you know, it's just idiotic.
00:27:30.040 And he went on Fox News and he tore.
00:27:31.900 DeSantis learned the lesson, man.
00:27:33.360 You know what?
00:27:34.340 He that's a whole different story.
00:27:36.620 We could spend an hour on that, Robert, because he knew better than getting that damn race in the first place, 1.00
00:27:40.620 because nobody but but there were people who said, remember, Chris Christie, it was an opportunity didn't run.
00:27:46.740 But now remember, Chris Christie and the Obama hug.
00:27:49.580 He ain't making a Kamala hug.
00:27:51.240 He ain't making a Biden hug.
00:27:52.620 Yep. He knows that.
00:27:53.920 Yep.
00:27:54.560 I want to take one more quick break here, Robert.
00:27:56.500 You mentioned the inflow of fly rule.
00:27:58.040 And I've got to get this off my chest because for everyone to know, Robert's a huge Atlanta Braves fan.
00:28:02.960 If you follow him on Twitter back in 2021, when the Braves were fortunate, fortunate enough to win the World Series,
00:28:08.180 Robert was rubbing it in everyone's face.
00:28:10.500 Well, I just want to let everyone know I'm a massive Yankees fan.
00:28:12.820 And for the sake of winning, I'm a Mets fan, too.
00:28:16.200 It hurts me to say that.
00:28:17.720 So how can you be a Yankees fan?
00:28:21.040 I'm a New Yorker, Robert.
00:28:22.500 I'm a New Yorker.
00:28:23.340 So you know what?
00:28:23.920 I'm a lifelong Yankees fan.
00:28:25.560 But you know what?
00:28:26.540 Yankees are out.
00:28:27.200 I'm all for the Mets.
00:28:27.920 Now, if it's Yankees-Mets, I'm going all in on the Yankees because they're winners. 0.74
00:28:31.560 But I had to get that off my chest because Robert rubbed it in everyone's face when the Braves won.
00:28:35.780 And I'm enjoying watching the Phillies with their butt kicked.
00:28:41.300 There you go.
00:28:42.260 I think we all are.
00:28:43.580 I tell everybody, you know, it's a little bit offensive, I guess.
00:28:47.140 No, just Padres.
00:28:48.340 Go, go, go.
00:28:49.860 Phillies have the worst fan base of any sports professional.
00:28:53.640 No question.
00:28:54.560 Yep.
00:28:55.020 So whether it be football, and it's crazy.
00:28:57.260 Their team wins, Robert, and they burn down their own damn city.
00:29:00.300 I mean, what world does that work?
00:29:02.020 And so I always say, Phillies got the worst fan base, the worst fans in all professional sports.
00:29:08.000 But we're taking a quick break here.
00:29:09.580 We're coming right back with Robert Cahaley, chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group.
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00:30:18.820 We're back.
00:30:21.960 We're talking with Robert Cahaley, chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, as I had mentioned, among the best pollsters in this country.
00:30:28.380 Robert, Kamala Harris, I mean, is just, she's been all over the place. 0.96
00:30:31.900 There's no doubt about it.
00:30:32.840 From her time back in the Senate to her time as vice president to now presumptive Democratic nominee.
00:30:40.280 Did an interview on 60 Minutes, which President Trump declined.
00:30:43.280 And you know what, a lot of people don't know this, but 60 Minutes reached out to President Trump recently and said, will you come on and do another interview?
00:30:51.080 And President Trump said yes, under one condition.
00:30:53.320 And now anyone would think, like, a condition would be, you can't ask me about this, you can't ask me about that.
00:30:57.760 All he wanted, Robert, was an apology for an interview he did with Leslie Stahl some years ago, before the 2020 election, in which he got up because she had said the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation.
00:31:11.440 She knew then it wasn't Russian disinformation.
00:31:14.260 President Trump knew.
00:31:15.600 All of America knew.
00:31:16.840 The FBI knew.
00:31:17.820 Everyone knew it wasn't.
00:31:18.860 The 51 intel chiefs that came out and signed that letter knew it wasn't Russian disinformation.
00:31:21.960 I'm not sure all of America knew it.
00:31:23.340 That's the problem.
00:31:24.020 Well, no, no, I'm saying the people, the vote, the Republicans, they knew the 51 intel chiefs who came out and said that it was Russian.
00:31:31.980 They knew they're liars.
00:31:33.320 Some of them still have security clearances.
00:31:34.800 How I have security clearances.
00:31:36.480 There's just no way.
00:31:37.640 So, you know, there's no doubt.
00:31:39.160 So she's flip-flopped on everything she did.
00:31:41.060 And 60 Minutes, to their credit, maybe these people are finally getting it a little bit right, had the courage to ask her about her flip-flopping.
00:31:48.560 Take a listen.
00:31:49.400 Tell you what your critics and the colonists say.
00:31:52.540 Okay.
00:31:52.880 They say that the reason so many voters don't know you is that you have changed your position on so many things.
00:32:01.080 You were against fracking.
00:32:02.660 Now you're for it.
00:32:04.200 You supported looser immigration policies.
00:32:07.300 Now you're tightening them up.
00:32:09.320 You're for Medicare for all. 0.71
00:32:11.120 Now you're not.
00:32:12.560 So many that people don't truly know what you believe or what you stand for.
00:32:18.860 And I know you've heard that.
00:32:20.000 In the last four years, I have been vice president of the United States.
00:32:24.340 And I have been traveling our country.
00:32:26.300 And I have been listening to folks.
00:32:27.740 And seeking what is possible in terms of common ground.
00:32:32.660 I believe in building consensus.
00:32:35.340 We are a diverse people.
00:32:36.500 Geographically, regionally, in terms of where we are in our backgrounds.
00:32:41.140 And what the American people do want is that we have leaders who can build consensus.
00:32:47.100 Where we can figure out compromise and understand it's not a bad thing, as long as you don't compromise your values, to find common sense solutions.
00:32:57.700 And that has been my approach.
00:32:59.940 So, I mean, hats off to the journalist, we'll call him a journalist, for asking that question.
00:33:08.360 I haven't watched 60 Minutes, but everything I've seen from this guy looks amazing.
00:33:12.340 I mean, this guy ought to be running the 11 o'clock news.
00:33:15.420 I mean, he really, maybe he's the one who should have run that debate.
00:33:19.940 Oh, David Muir.
00:33:20.900 I mean, that guy was a, but I mean, he's right. 0.98
00:33:22.900 She has no opinion of her own.
00:33:25.860 No tax on tips.
00:33:26.940 President Trump came out and said, no tax on tips.
00:33:29.680 All of a sudden, a week later, Kamala Harris, no tax on tips. 0.99
00:33:33.700 First of all, ever anyone to believe that you're a dummy, because Democrats, all they've done over the course of their political party is raise taxes on Americans across the board.
00:33:44.560 And, you know, they prayed themselves as a working class party.
00:33:46.860 Well, they've hurt the working class party, perhaps more than anything or anyone in this country, whether it be the taxes on them, whether it be.
00:33:54.600 This is one that people don't talk about, Robert, the illegal immigrants that come in and take these jobs from these Americans who are not college educated, who come out of high school and seek jobs. 0.99
00:34:03.900 The people who work at tire shops, the people who work at Target, the people who work at Walmart, the people who work at gas stations.
00:34:10.580 You go down the list.
00:34:11.640 I'm from New York.
00:34:12.300 Construction companies across the state, across this city, all use illegal labor.
00:34:19.200 Illegal aliens come in. 1.00
00:34:20.500 They sit outside Home Depot.
00:34:21.860 You go and pick them up.
00:34:22.720 You pay them 200 bucks a day.
00:34:24.380 These are all jobs that, you know, the lower class echelons of America could be employed by.
00:34:33.080 You know, people, like I said, people without college degrees. 1.00
00:34:34.860 These people are blue collar workers who want work like that, yet they're being taken by these illegals who are coming across the country. 1.00
00:34:41.400 And we could argue about how many there are, but it's probably somewhere in the range of upwards of 20 million illegals that are taking these jobs from people.
00:34:49.480 Kamala Harris, I mean, doesn't have a stance that she believes, Robert.
00:34:53.560 What do you think about this woman? 1.00
00:34:54.980 Well, I mean, you know, it's easy to be very critical of everything she does, but I do think the idea of, she didn't articulate it well, but if she, but to say.
00:35:08.440 She doesn't articulate anything.
00:35:10.360 Right.
00:35:10.820 But to say, when I ran the Democrat primary and hadn't been in federal office, I believed this.
00:35:16.600 Right.
00:35:16.920 After four years of being vice president, I realized those views were unrealistic.
00:35:22.680 And now I believe this, that's not a bad answer, but she, but it's like, that's where she was going, but she got lost and didn't get there.
00:35:31.820 Well, the problem is, Robert, if she were to run on what you just said, there would be a lot of issues that she'd have to say.
00:35:38.500 I, you know, I believe that.
00:35:39.960 I don't believe now, maybe 10 or 12 issues that she'd have to explain herself for.
00:35:44.680 And then she'd get into office.
00:35:47.140 Why does she have to explain herself? 1.00
00:35:48.980 Who's going to call her on it? 0.91
00:35:50.220 Well, that's true.
00:35:50.840 Well, you know what, she'd run for, if she, if she wins in November, she'll presume, presumably run for reelection in 2024. 0.97
00:35:57.600 And maybe she'll get called on it.
00:35:59.280 What's that?
00:35:59.980 And maybe she'll get called on it.
00:36:01.720 Probably not.
00:36:03.820 Well, but here's the thing.
00:36:05.680 It's always the question.
00:36:07.180 Are they going to campaign and govern the same way?
00:36:10.920 I mean, it's really what J.D. Vance said his problem with Trump was.
00:36:13.800 He didn't believe he'd be as conservative as he turned out to be.
00:36:17.480 And there, and he thought he was just saying what it took to get elected.
00:36:20.740 And then he, he did exactly what he said he would do.
00:36:23.500 And he kind of surprised a lot of people.
00:36:25.440 So, I mean, there's always the possibility that what she says now is how she would govern.
00:36:31.800 But I don't really buy it.
00:36:34.560 And I think a lot of people don't buy it.
00:36:36.500 I mean, Bernie Sanders said it best on Meet the Press.
00:36:39.540 He's still a progressive, but she's saying what she needs to say to get elected right now.
00:36:44.540 You mentioned Bernie.
00:36:45.580 I actually saw him over the weekend.
00:36:47.620 As I said, out in Vegas, he was standing outside my hotel.
00:36:50.100 And I had some not nice words to say for him.
00:36:51.820 Was he just fussing at people?
00:36:53.520 He wasn't.
00:36:54.120 He was on his flip phone, which I thought was also highly peculiar.
00:36:56.580 He had a flip phone held to his ear, not an iPhone or an Android.
00:37:00.260 I'm not sure what the reasoning for that is.
00:37:02.200 But Chuck Schumer also, I sat next to him on a plane from Paris.
00:37:05.960 Somehow Chuck Schumer was sitting, this was many years ago,
00:37:08.500 but sitting next to me on a plane ride from Paris with his family.
00:37:13.540 Tickets were like $8,000 or $9,000 for first class.
00:37:16.540 And, you know, I looked, his family, three people, $27,000.
00:37:20.340 You can't really relate to the American people when you're.
00:37:22.660 Well, he might have points, though.
00:37:24.380 But, yeah, you know, we'll give him the benefit of the doubt, Robert.
00:37:27.720 But, anyway, so I see Robert and Bernie Sanders sitting outside my hotel
00:37:30.380 with two or three of his staffers.
00:37:31.760 I had some not nice things to say.
00:37:33.020 Maybe there will be a video of me somewhere of it for the audience all to see
00:37:36.760 the things I said.
00:37:38.020 I won't repeat what I said.
00:37:39.040 But I'm just tired of it all, Robert.
00:37:41.680 Kamala, another thing she had said on 60 Minutes is she owns a Glock. 0.77
00:37:44.620 We would talk about it in the break.
00:37:45.620 She couldn't tell us what Glock she owned.
00:37:47.660 But the Glocks are banned from her state of her manufacturing. 0.77
00:37:50.640 And the model she had said or that she had had is banned because of high
00:37:55.020 capacity rounds.
00:37:57.320 First of all, I don't believe for a second.
00:37:59.040 Well, that's considered an assault weapon.
00:38:00.960 Assault.
00:38:01.720 All right.
00:38:02.840 I've lived in Florida for some part of my life,
00:38:05.480 so I was privy to carrying a gun every single day.
00:38:08.500 Now I'm back in New York.
00:38:09.220 It's a little bit different.
00:38:10.380 But.
00:38:10.640 Too bad.
00:38:11.680 I understand you're in Georgia, so you're free to conceal and carry 0.99
00:38:15.780 wherever you'd like.
00:38:16.660 But it's just a double standard, Robert.
00:38:18.780 They want guns taken away from every single American.
00:38:21.460 You know, she had mentioned law abiding American.
00:38:23.900 Right.
00:38:24.380 Exactly.
00:38:25.100 Exactly.
00:38:25.620 Exactly.
00:38:26.080 And, you know, I often say this to people, Robert,
00:38:28.460 back when Bloomberg was mayor of New York,
00:38:30.260 if you got caught with a handgun in New York,
00:38:32.800 it was a year and a half minimum in jail.
00:38:35.320 Right.
00:38:35.600 I don't know what it is now because it seems like there's really no law
00:38:39.200 and order in this city.
00:38:40.480 But I often tell people it's almost worth getting a gun here in New York
00:38:46.140 as a law abiding citizen and dealing with the repercussions of being
00:38:50.820 caught with it after the fact because of how dangerous this city is.
00:38:54.820 And I'm not promoting illegal guns or anything like that.
00:38:58.260 But, you know, you think to yourself,
00:39:00.240 is it worth getting caught with a gun as a law abiding citizen with not
00:39:04.140 intending to do any harm and being able to protect yourself against
00:39:07.780 someone who has a gun who will get arrested and will be out in mere hours
00:39:12.480 after being arrested and probably not go back to court to face their
00:39:15.180 charges.
00:39:16.620 But it just, you know, for us to be thinking like that,
00:39:19.440 for something like that to come to my mind, it just, I think,
00:39:22.300 tells us the state of our state right now here in New York.
00:39:26.380 But it's all across the country, Robert.
00:39:27.640 It's in Chicago.
00:39:28.700 It's in L.A.
00:39:29.620 I'm going to be out in L.A. this weekend.
00:39:31.640 President Trump is heading out to Coachella for a rally.
00:39:35.200 Last time I was there, Robert, California,
00:39:38.000 and I don't think anyone will argue this,
00:39:39.800 California is probably the most beautiful state in this country.
00:39:43.880 Whether you're in Palos Verdes, California on the water,
00:39:46.720 you're down to La Hala Beach, you're up in San Francisco.
00:39:49.620 I mean, the landscape of it, the Napa Valley is just beautiful.
00:39:53.880 You have everything.
00:39:54.560 You have everything from skiing to surfing to vineyards.
00:39:57.700 But what the Democrats have done to that state is absolutely disgusting, Robert.
00:40:02.240 San Francisco, you've got drugs pouring on the streets.
00:40:05.600 I have a buddy who lives out in L.A.
00:40:07.060 He sends me pictures every day walking past as he walks to the gym in Santa Monica.
00:40:11.820 Walking to the gym, these homeless people have encampments set up, Robert,
00:40:15.260 on the street sidewalks.
00:40:16.400 You can't walk on the sidewalk.
00:40:17.620 And he sent me one the other day,
00:40:18.880 and there's a spice rack hanging on a telephone pole
00:40:21.260 for these people who like to cook in their kitchen out there.
00:40:23.840 And people don't think there's something wrong with this.
00:40:26.680 How do we revert from where we've got to in this country, Robert?
00:40:30.840 Well, California is a particular problem.
00:40:34.460 You talk about ballots.
00:40:36.220 I mean, California mails out, I think it's like 25 million ballots.
00:40:41.700 And the most people who have ever voted in a California election is 15 million.
00:40:45.760 So how does that work?
00:40:48.040 I mean, it's very scary when you just mail out ballots.
00:40:52.600 And they say they have a tracking system where you can track your own ballot,
00:40:56.360 but they don't really track what they send.
00:40:58.720 And so if the people put up with this, I mean, so in the end,
00:41:04.880 you've got to blame California voters because they're the ones who elected all this.
00:41:09.700 And that's when you get right down to it.
00:41:13.180 This is one of the problems you have now with the expansion of government the way it is,
00:41:19.160 is there are so many people who are dependent upon government,
00:41:23.300 who are worried about a government check?
00:41:27.260 I mean, there's a lot of nonsense.
00:41:29.060 People say, oh, wow, the Republicans lost the two Senate races in Georgia.
00:41:32.740 I can tell you what it was.
00:41:34.280 It was the $600 versus $1,400.
00:41:38.140 It was the Democrats saying, we want that six that you have in your account to be $1,400.
00:41:43.040 And Mitch McConnell saying, I'll stop it.
00:41:47.760 And people also, Robert, too, is the Georgia race.
00:41:50.780 I mean, I was down there for that race at a Trump rally,
00:41:53.760 and I was doing interviews for Lou on Fox Business.
00:41:56.540 And the truth of the matter is, and Lou said, I said to Lou before I started the interviews,
00:42:01.460 and this was after President Trump allegedly lost the election.
00:42:05.500 He was down in, I forgot what part of Georgia.
00:42:07.680 He was in southern Georgia somewhere.
00:42:08.860 We were in a rally.
00:42:09.440 And, you know, I said to Lou, I said, you know, what do you think I should ask these voters
00:42:13.860 as I was doing man on the street interviews?
00:42:16.500 And it was actually truly funny.
00:42:18.880 And he asked, he said to me, he goes, why should we be out here supporting two rhino candidates 0.95
00:42:23.260 when we should be supporting President Trump?
00:42:25.240 And, you know, I laughed and I was like, Lou, you trying to get me beat up?
00:42:28.360 And he goes, no, but you think about it, it's true.
00:42:30.520 So I asked the question to these people, and you know what?
00:42:33.080 More of them are receptive to it than not.
00:42:34.920 It was two bad candidates, two rhinos. 1.00
00:42:37.680 Loeffler had problems of her own, couldn't relate to anybody because of, you know, obvious
00:42:42.540 reasons of her personal private life.
00:42:46.340 And the other guy, Perdue, was another rhino.
00:42:50.200 I'm sorry.
00:42:50.780 I just had to get that in there because it just drives me nuts.
00:42:54.280 And the thing is, though, they tried to say it was everything else.
00:42:58.140 But if you were in Georgia and you saw the billboards talking about the extra money, get
00:43:02.080 your money, vote for the Democrats, and you understood that.
00:43:04.680 And then you saw that the Public Service Commissioner Republican did win.
00:43:08.900 Then you understand you can't ask people to vote against their pocketbook.
00:43:13.040 That's real money in their pocket.
00:43:14.740 I mean, I always say rule number one, never promise money before an election.
00:43:19.660 Rule number two, if you're going to break rule number one, be for the big number.
00:43:24.620 And the Republicans work for the big number.
00:43:27.060 Yeah, you've got a point.
00:43:28.120 You know, I just want to wrap up with this.
00:43:29.740 And we appreciate your time today here, Robert.
00:43:33.460 2024 versus 2020.
00:43:34.960 I'm going to go through some real clear politics numbers.
00:43:38.080 For top battleground states, the spread now from 2020 to 2024 is Republicans plus four and
00:43:44.640 a half.
00:43:44.940 And I want to I want the audience to just listen to this because it tells you, I think, where
00:43:49.480 we're at when you see these polls.
00:43:50.840 I mentioned earlier, the Reuters, Reuters, Ipsos poll of Trump, of Harris plus seven.
00:43:56.800 And then you look at these numbers.
00:43:58.100 Nothing makes sense.
00:43:59.140 And I'm going to ask Robert to break this down for us to make it make sense.
00:44:03.440 For top battleground states, the spread is Trump plus four and a half.
00:44:06.760 In 2020, it was Democrats plus four point three.
00:44:10.280 In 2024, it's Republicans plus point two.
00:44:12.820 A spread of four and a half from 2020 to 2024.
00:44:15.960 The Republic, the real clear politics national average in 2020, it was Democrat plus nine.
00:44:24.040 2024, it's Democrat plus two, a swing of seven point seven.
00:44:30.460 And that's for national poll?
00:44:32.440 For national polls, yes.
00:44:34.060 Plus nine?
00:44:35.180 Plus nine, plus nine point seven, Democrat nine point seven for 2020.
00:44:39.360 Oh, 20.
00:44:39.960 OK, yeah.
00:44:40.380 For 2020.
00:44:41.000 And favorable favorability rating was Democrats in 2020 plus 18.2 percent in 2024, where we're
00:44:50.640 at right now.
00:44:51.880 It's I'm sorry, it was Democrats plus 12.
00:44:54.580 And now we're at plus.
00:44:56.620 Sorry, hold on one second.
00:44:58.020 This is pulling away from here in in 2020.
00:45:00.860 It was Democrats plus 18.2 in 2024, Democrats plus 7.9.
00:45:05.400 We see all these numbers, Robert, that reflect President Trump is performing better in 2024
00:45:12.260 than he was in 2020.
00:45:14.000 And you look at states like Wisconsin, where he lost by a very small margin of votes.
00:45:20.320 Right.
00:45:20.680 You look at Georgia, where he lost by a very small margin of votes.
00:45:24.620 You look at Arizona, where he lost by a very small margin of votes.
00:45:28.060 You go down the list.
00:45:29.660 Right.
00:45:30.380 And I mean, you could argue some states, Pennsylvania, whatever happened there.
00:45:35.000 I mean, they obviously changed the voter laws, as we discussed earlier.
00:45:37.940 But you see all these changes, Robert, some of them two, three, four, fivefold from where
00:45:43.560 he was in 2020.
00:45:45.700 How can any pollster with a straight face say Donald Trump is going to lose by seven, by
00:45:52.000 10, by 12 points, even by a margin of three or four?
00:45:56.340 Well, I mean, you kind of answered your question a little bit because it depends on what the
00:46:03.980 purpose of the poll is.
00:46:05.340 I mean, I've said for years, the purpose of a poll is either to reflect the electorate
00:46:10.840 or to affect the electorate.
00:46:13.280 And so many of these polls are designed to create artificial momentum.
00:46:19.140 You know, and it's a matter of just putting the thumb on it a little bit.
00:46:22.180 I mean, the way people this is not hard and you can tweak up some turnout.
00:46:29.240 I always mean, our philosophy is err on the side of being too optimistic for the Democrats.
00:46:36.000 Right.
00:46:36.780 And but there are so many others that are so clearly in the tank.
00:46:42.620 I mean, it's just like I can look at it when I put something out.
00:46:45.820 I'm like, all right, that's just trash.
00:46:47.020 And don't get me wrong, there are some Republican polls that are clearly in the tank.
00:46:51.680 But then there are those who really strive to get it right.
00:46:56.100 Like, you know, Insider Advantage, Emerson College, even New York Times-Siena.
00:47:01.620 These are polls that have a record of being like them or not.
00:47:05.780 They do a pretty good job.
00:47:07.680 You're in and you're out, especially on their final two polls.
00:47:11.020 Hold on one second, because 538, Nate Silver, who's the biggest hack among.
00:47:14.440 Well, first of all, he doesn't work for 538 anymore.
00:47:17.020 Really?
00:47:17.740 That's new to me.
00:47:18.580 Remember, he sold 538 out to ABC and Disney Control 538.
00:47:23.360 Nate does his own thing called Silver Bulletin.
00:47:26.460 So 538 rated New York Times and Siena the most accurate and trustworthy polls.
00:47:33.160 I went through a few weeks ago their polls for 2020.
00:47:37.380 And I encourage every one of you to go out there and read their polling for 2020.
00:47:42.340 That wasn't their best year.
00:47:43.880 They missed Arizona.
00:47:45.900 They missed every swing state by, like I mentioned before, a factor of two, three, four, five times.
00:47:50.900 They missed the average.
00:47:51.700 I think they had Trump losing by 12.
00:47:54.200 In no world would President Trump lose any election.
00:47:59.060 You could put him up for New York City mayor.
00:48:00.520 I don't think he would lose by 12 in deep blue New York.
00:48:04.800 Yet these people came out there and 538 parades them as, you know, top of the top.
00:48:09.340 I mean, it's...
00:48:10.400 Remember, there's a difference between overall average.
00:48:15.100 Right.
00:48:15.360 Which includes every election.
00:48:16.720 Hey, we've all had a bad election cycle.
00:48:18.780 I've certainly had one.
00:48:20.920 Robert, but when you miss, you miss by one or two, maybe three.
00:48:26.180 These people, Robert, miss by 10.
00:48:27.900 That's not an actual...
00:48:28.780 No, there's no question.
00:48:29.920 There's no question.
00:48:30.960 It was extreme.
00:48:32.380 It was significant in 2020.
00:48:34.180 It was significant in 2016.
00:48:36.180 They just...
00:48:36.780 These guys just really don't understand how to deal with these extra Trump votes.
00:48:41.520 But what I will tell you is what's even stranger on the 538 is number two was ABC News.
00:48:51.720 Right.
00:48:52.440 Now, surprise, surprise, they own ABC News.
00:48:56.800 I mean, and, you know, you look down there and you're like, wait, wait a minute.
00:49:01.080 They were one of the worst.
00:49:02.920 And consistently, they're not in the top 15 year in, year out.
00:49:08.360 Right.
00:49:08.600 I mean, how can you ever say they're number two?
00:49:11.520 You see, they have other stuff in the mix.
00:49:13.260 But the way you rate pollsters is simply error rate.
00:49:18.400 Error rate.
00:49:19.260 That is the way you rate them.
00:49:20.520 Not their, quote unquote, transparency.
00:49:23.680 Definitely about the transparency.
00:49:25.360 It's like, what does that mean?
00:49:27.200 Some of these people have to go to a paywall to look at their polls.
00:49:30.360 And, you know, and they accuse people of being partisan pollers.
00:49:33.820 Like, I mean, Republican Party don't pay for my polls.
00:49:36.620 And yet they label us as partisan.
00:49:38.600 So they put a lot of labels.
00:49:40.040 And whether you're a member of their little polling association.
00:49:43.480 Right.
00:49:43.680 So, I mean, there are things that are not related to polling accuracy that FiveThirtyEight uses.
00:49:49.020 And to his credit, Nate doesn't use that stuff in his rating now.
00:49:54.500 To me, Robert, it's just unbelievable.
00:49:56.320 You go down the list.
00:49:57.460 And RealClearPolitics, I don't use their average very often.
00:50:01.020 Because they average in polls like that.
00:50:03.520 They're plus seven.
00:50:04.120 And so the average on RealClearPolitics is not right.
00:50:06.720 But if you go to RealClearPolitics...
00:50:07.560 But it's better than anybody else.
00:50:09.520 Yeah, yeah.
00:50:10.000 But it lets you decipher for yourself what you see.
00:50:13.680 But like I said, the problem with RealClearPolitics average is, is it's constant.
00:50:18.440 It's Yahoo News.
00:50:19.740 It's TIPP.
00:50:22.000 It's New York Times-Siena.
00:50:22.820 When you bake them all together, you get...
00:50:25.260 Rasmussen does a...
00:50:26.700 I think it's a daily poll they put out every day.
00:50:28.840 And it's constantly got Trump, Trump, Trump.
00:50:31.300 If you go look at the RealClearPolitics average, you go down the list, the only one in there
00:50:36.860 that has Trump winning is Rasmussen in the most recent polls in the last two or three weeks.
00:50:41.400 It's everything.
00:50:41.900 It's Harris plus five, from Szechawana, from Morning Consul, from Quinnipiac, from CNN,
00:50:47.280 all partisan pollsters.
00:50:49.320 So you can't get an honest answer.
00:50:50.800 But the thing that drives me nuts, Robert, is that these people get away with it time
00:50:55.120 and time again, and it's...
00:50:57.460 Well, there is new accountability.
00:50:59.980 I mean, that's the thing.
00:51:01.300 I mean, it's right on RealClearPolitics website.
00:51:04.420 You can go look at the overall ratings for year after year, and very few people talk about
00:51:09.460 it.
00:51:09.780 They want to...
00:51:10.260 You know, people like to pick and choose and talk about this poll and that poll and
00:51:14.820 everything else.
00:51:15.460 And it's like, you know what?
00:51:17.620 That's like picking innings in a baseball game.
00:51:19.640 What's the final score?
00:51:21.920 How many games did you win of 162?
00:51:24.840 That's the answer.
00:51:26.420 Yep.
00:51:27.100 We need more pollsters like you in this country, Robert.
00:51:30.360 As I told everybody...
00:51:31.840 No, we don't.
00:51:32.360 No, we don't.
00:51:34.840 As I told everybody throughout the course of this show, Robert, Robert is among, if not
00:51:40.080 the best, one of the top three, in my opinion, pollsters this country has seen over the
00:51:46.620 course of the last 10 years or so.
00:51:49.400 Robert, I want to conclude with this question.
00:51:52.080 After parading you as the number one pollster, top three pollster in this country, the election
00:51:57.320 were held, not in 25 days from now, but if the election were held today, with the information
00:52:03.280 you see, in your humble opinion, who wins the election and by what margin?
00:52:08.900 If the election were held today, I think that Trump wins the election.
00:52:14.560 I'm not going to get in the popular vote, but I think he does north of 280 electoral votes.
00:52:22.140 Three weeks ago, I would have actually told you Kamala wins.
00:52:24.780 So, at least this thing can change.
00:52:28.420 But right now, I think that he is on the path to doing, possibly breaking the 306 that he
00:52:36.500 did in 2016.
00:52:38.480 So, I think he's going down the right path.
00:52:42.000 He is becoming more defined every day.
00:52:45.460 And to her credit, she did the 60 Minutes interview, and we got to see a lot about her.
00:52:50.260 I wouldn't have done it if I was her, because I don't think it was the best hour or best
00:52:54.900 time.
00:52:55.760 But, no, I think this is a lot can happen overseas that can impact this race.
00:53:03.020 But right now, I think that Trump is in a very good place to win this election.
00:53:09.280 Real quickly, Robert, I said that was the last question, but I want to just follow up
00:53:12.440 on this.
00:53:13.200 If we go back to real-life politics, there's no toss-up map.
00:53:15.880 They have Trump losing Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nevada, Virginia, New Hampshire.
00:53:23.720 Do you agree with all of those as it lies?
00:53:26.720 And by their margin of victory, Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
00:53:32.980 So, as I mentioned, those states.
00:53:34.820 I agree with the ones I said they win.
00:53:36.460 So, run back to the ones I said they were going to lose.
00:53:38.700 Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia.
00:53:42.840 Yes, I think that Trump can win Michigan.
00:53:48.340 I do not think he'll win Minnesota.
00:53:50.580 I do not think he'll win Virginia.
00:53:52.760 And what else?
00:53:53.740 Wisconsin.
00:53:56.160 That one, I'm going to keep its toss-up.
00:54:01.340 Robert Cahaley, Chief Polster for the Trafalgar Group.
00:54:03.900 You do an excellent job.
00:54:06.420 And for everyone, Robert's job is not to be a partisan.
00:54:09.600 Robert's political views are what they are.
00:54:11.280 That's his personal view.
00:54:12.520 Robert's a professional.
00:54:13.480 And I think throughout the course of this interview, you can decipher that.
00:54:17.860 Yeah, I tell people all the time.
00:54:19.960 You know, I hate to say this, but every election, my goal is for my foals to be right.
00:54:26.340 I mean, I want to be right.
00:54:28.080 More than I want somebody to win or lose, I want to be right.
00:54:30.760 Yep.
00:54:31.080 As we all do in our everyday lives, Robert.
00:54:32.820 But you're doing a hell of a job doing it, Robert Cahaley.
00:54:35.160 Come back soon.
00:54:36.320 We appreciate all the great work you're doing in honesty,
00:54:38.900 which is very hard to come by in your business and mine as well.
00:54:41.940 I might as well say.
00:54:42.940 I'll just throw you under the bus. 1.00
00:54:43.940 Thanks so much, brother.
00:54:45.080 Thank you, man.
00:54:45.820 Take care.
00:54:46.620 Thanks to Robert Cahaley.
00:54:47.540 And thank you all for being with us today here on The Great America Show.
00:54:50.780 To read any and all of Robert's latest polling,
00:54:53.560 you can go to the Trafalgar Group dot org, the Trafalgar Group dot org.
00:54:57.560 As I said, Robert is a top three pollster in this country.
00:55:00.240 He does an excellent job.
00:55:01.280 And all he cares about is getting it right.
00:55:03.180 He tries to stay nonpartisan in a business that is highly partisan.
00:55:08.100 Please be sure to join us back here tomorrow for The Great America Show
00:55:10.740 as our quest for truth, justice and the American way continues.
00:55:14.260 Be sure to follow me on Twitter at John Fawcett NY.
00:55:17.160 That's John Fawcett NY.
00:55:18.780 And on Truth Social at John Fawcett.
00:55:20.920 You can email us at info at Lou Dobbs dot com.
00:55:23.840 That's info at Lou Dobbs dot com.
00:55:26.220 Let us know what you want to hear more of on the show or less of or guest ideas
00:55:29.240 or anything for that matter.
00:55:31.480 Shoot us a tweet.
00:55:32.120 Shoot us a DM.
00:55:32.820 Shoot us a email.
00:55:33.960 Whatever, whatever's easy for you.
00:55:35.580 See you back here tomorrow.
00:55:36.820 May God bless you.
00:55:38.140 May God bless America.
00:55:39.580 And may God bless the great Lou Dobbs.