The Great America Show - TRUMP ENTERS THE FINAL STRETCH LEADING KAMALA

00:00:00.000 Hello, everybody, and welcome to The Great America Show.

00:00:05.300 It's great to have you with us.

00:00:06.320 Thanks so much for being with us.

00:00:08.200 Well, we're 11 days away from the most important election of our lifetime.

00:00:13.460 Make no mistake, it absolutely is.

00:00:15.880 It's life or death on the line.

00:00:17.260 Not literally, but maybe, definitely, figuratively, between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

00:00:22.900 Kamala Harris is an absolute train wreck.

00:00:25.300 Taking days off the campaign, President Trump has never done such things.

00:00:30.000 Since 2016, even a day off for President Trump on a golf course doesn't mean it's a day off.

00:00:35.600 The guy's on his phone 24-7, working 24-7.

00:00:39.780 But early voting is underway.

00:00:41.960 47 states have early voting, and most of them have begun.

00:00:45.900 Three states don't partake in early voting.

00:00:48.500 Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire.

00:00:50.360 It's probably why their election results come in on election night, and they get their act together.

00:00:55.300 But nonetheless, early voting is underway.

00:00:57.100 18 million people have voted so far early, a massive number, and they're breaking records.

00:01:03.340 I asked Mark Mitchell to join us today.

00:01:05.420 He's our guest of the day.

00:01:06.740 He's the leading head pollster for Rasmussen, the guys who get it right, nonpartisan.

00:01:12.160 Mark, it's great to have you with us back on the show.

00:01:14.580 So I got to tell you, I got an email from a person after I had you on the show two months ago, and she said, we have two of the nicest sets of hair she's ever seen on people.

00:01:24.820 Now, I like you.

00:01:25.440 You're a nice guy, so I don't want to get into it all.

00:01:28.300 We'll just leave it at that.

00:01:30.220 We'll just leave it at that, and we'll move on.

00:01:33.520 A lot of talk about Donald Trump.

00:01:36.140 We've seen polling since Kamala Harris came in, since Joe Biden announced he'd be running for re-election, up and down, all around.

00:01:44.820 What do we see now as a trend as we enter the final 11 days of this election cycle?

00:01:50.980 Yeah, the polling has been crazy.

00:01:52.420 It's been up.

00:01:53.000 It's been down.

00:01:53.700 No, it's been flat in our polling, at least, a Trump plus two literally the entire time between our last interview and today.

00:02:03.940 And that's a real surprise, I think, for a lot of people who may be watching mainstream media news, who's cherry picking all of these perennial left pollsters like Morning Console and Reuters Ipsos.

00:02:13.760 But people have seen Donald Trump.

00:02:15.640 He's had everything thrown at him.

00:02:17.400 He's getting 49 percent of the electorate now.

00:02:19.560 Now, the thought that some of those people are going to change their mind or somehow peel off because of some Kamala Harris ad is really weak sauce.

00:02:28.540 And what you're starting to see, again, the polls have been, like I said, pretty locked in at about a Harris plus two national popular vote win.

00:02:37.180 But that's not enough to get her over the hump because we all know there's going to be left polling error, just like there was the last two cycles with Trump on the ballot.

00:02:45.740 So it looks like a clear Trump win.

00:02:47.680 And I've been saying that.

00:02:48.760 Problem is, none of the people in the media have been willing to acknowledge it until it finally came crashing down to them.

00:02:55.540 And reality has been a very cruel mistress in the last week or two.

00:02:59.320 A lot of people having their cognitive dissonance shoved in their face to realize that Donald Trump is probably going to be their president for the next four years.

00:03:06.820 Like I've been saying literally all year.

00:03:09.220 You often, for anyone who doesn't follow Mark on Twitter, Mark, what's your handle?

00:03:15.360 Mark underscore R underscore Mitchell.

00:03:17.640 I'm new to Twitter and I love it.

00:03:19.360 I see.

00:03:19.640 I couldn't remember that.

00:03:20.500 I just know to type in Mark and you're the first one that comes up.

00:03:23.440 Mark's a tweeting maniac.

00:03:24.820 And Mark's got all the latest on poly markets.

00:03:27.160 Now, for all you out there who aren't degenerate gamblers, poly market, pretty much what it does is it lets you bet on who's going to be the next president.

00:03:35.060 The odds are almost like a 60-40, if I'm not mistaken, Mark, right now in President Trump's favor.

00:03:41.640 Now, I constantly see these left Marxists on Twitter going, well, the Republicans, they're manipulating the poly markets. 1.00

00:03:48.780 And I'm going to myself, you idiot. 1.00

00:03:51.640 There's no manipulation here. 1.00

00:03:53.280 This is money moving into the market and money moving out of the market there.

00:03:57.200 This isn't like a stock market manipulation or, you know, getting E. coli at McDonald's and driving the stock down 30 bucks in a day.

00:04:06.420 This is people betting on the markets and the odds changing.

00:04:09.860 It's the same way a line moves when you go.

00:04:12.280 Like I said, if you're not a degenerate gambler, you wouldn't know this stuff.

00:04:14.900 And I'm not.

00:04:15.500 Well, you know, it's a different story.

00:04:17.380 But any like you bet on a game in Vegas, the more the money goes to that one team, the odds go up.

00:04:23.940 I mean, it's just how it is.

00:04:25.780 So what is it right now for President Trump on poly market?

00:04:30.140 Poly market is incredible.

00:04:31.680 Unless there's always been betting markets or predicted.

00:04:34.280 I like poly market just because it's such a deep market and it's got a really slick website.

00:04:37.880 So I go and check it first.

00:04:40.720 And to be honest with you, there is some manipulation, in my opinion.

00:04:43.980 I think way back when the markets were a lot shallower, some people were kind of holding the line in things like Pennsylvania, where there wasn't a lot of trading and it was a lot easier.

00:04:53.340 But there are some really major whales.

00:04:56.680 The thing is, is that that market is going to always be right at the end of the day.

00:05:00.600 It's just a matter of when.

00:05:02.240 And so if people don't cash out and they ride it all the way to the end and they're wrong, they lose like a ton of money.

00:05:09.180 But there are people that do have sizable positions.

00:05:11.540 There was just a flash crash today.

00:05:13.540 Somebody like sold a little bit and bought it again.

00:05:15.880 Right.

00:05:16.180 So at the end of the day, they're not out a lot of money.

00:05:18.680 Those people aren't in there, in my opinion, to spend tens of millions of dollars to craft a narrative.

00:05:23.800 Exactly.

00:05:24.780 Yeah.

00:05:25.260 But what has been great is that the betting market has been interpreting the polls better than the media is.

00:05:31.300 And so, in my opinion, for weeks, RealClearPolitics, for anybody who knows the polling is going to be there to the left, can look at those pages and say Donald Trump wins.

00:05:43.340 Because every single one of the swing states has been tied or Trump leading.

00:05:47.180 And now they all look really Trumpy.

00:05:49.680 And any polling error to the left means that Donald Trump sweeps all the swing states comfortably.

00:05:54.440 And a national popular vote, Harris' lead of two points, isn't enough to get her over the hump either. 1.00

00:06:01.220 And Polly Markets told us all that before CNN and MSNBC did.

00:06:06.700 They're still not even telling their viewers that Donald Trump's going to win right now.

00:06:11.180 You know, I got a call over the weekend.

00:06:12.500 And this is the first polling call I think I've ever gotten in my life.

00:06:15.320 And it was from New York Times-Siena.

00:06:18.080 They introduced it as Siena, not New York Times.

00:06:20.580 But I'm wondering, it's Sumpson, it's part of New York Times as well.

00:06:25.280 The lady on the phone was not very informative. 0.99

00:06:27.320 She couldn't pronounce Kathy Hochul's name, the governor of New York.

00:06:30.680 So, you know, I think they just hire these people who don't really know what they're doing.

00:06:34.220 But, you know, asking me these questions.

00:06:36.060 And, you know, I'm not a pollster, but I understand the narrative that they're trying to get at.

00:06:40.080 And they were polling specifically on New York.

00:06:43.040 And they were trying to figure out.

00:06:44.360 Now, I'm not going to tell you if I answered the question honestly or, you know, tried to play with their polling a little bit.

00:06:49.720 But I may have, you know, it's the same way that people register as Democrats and then vote Republican to mess in Democratic primaries.

00:06:57.900 Yeah, I think of it the same way.

00:06:59.240 That's how you game a poll.

00:06:59.980 Exactly.

00:07:00.940 So the questions they were asking me, you know, it's sort of hinted to me that they're paying for this poll.

00:07:07.920 And it was they wanted to know, you know, eight out of ten of the questions geared.

00:07:12.020 It was, you know, a 15-minute interview.

00:07:14.100 We're geared towards trying to figure out how President Trump is doing in New York.

00:07:18.540 Now, President Trump comes to MSG, Madison Square Garden, where I'm a proud New York Knicks season ticket holder this Sunday, where I will see him.

00:07:27.200 He's not coming here to waste his time, in my opinion, Mark.

00:07:30.080 He's not coming here to make a statement, in my opinion, although Donald Trump loves to make statements.

00:07:35.100 He's coming here because his polling is showing that something is going on in this deep blue state.

00:07:41.900 Do you have any insight on what the hell is going on here?

00:07:44.560 Oh, yeah.

00:07:45.060 I mean, we talked about this before the show.

00:07:47.700 The fundamentals all favor Donald Trump.

00:07:49.980 What's crazy is just the polling doesn't.

00:07:52.540 And there's a ton of reasons why that could be.

00:07:54.440 A lot of confirmation bias.

00:07:56.080 A lot of, like, poorly put together panels.

00:07:59.040 And a lot of, quite frankly, a lot of people won't respond to live operators, honestly, especially when it's an unpopular person like Donald Trump.

00:08:06.620 People are afraid to put signs out.

00:08:08.260 People are afraid their car is going to get knifed.

00:08:09.880 And there is an impact.

00:08:11.460 That's why we use, you know, robo-dialing.

00:08:14.200 But the polling, on a national level, has shifted between six to eight points to the right.

00:08:21.060 Wow.

00:08:21.400 Those people live somewhere.

00:08:22.900 They live in states like New York.

00:08:24.660 And so, across the board, maybe some of the states will be more than others.

00:08:28.260 We expect to see a massive shift to the right.

00:08:30.060 And we poll every night.

00:08:32.580 We're the only people that have been putting out daily numbers all the way going back to the switcheroo.

00:08:37.700 And a lot of those people live in New York.

00:08:39.540 So, I took two months of data and crunched some numbers.

00:08:43.040 And I even weighted that data.

00:08:45.560 I forced it into the 2020 vote.

00:08:48.040 I forced it into the 23-point lead that Joe Biden had in New York in 2020.

00:08:54.280 And what did I come out with?

00:08:55.840 Harris plus 11.

00:08:57.840 Wow.

00:08:58.200 So, I can tell you, I was not being very controversial with those weightings.

00:09:03.460 I just used the 2020 weightings.

00:09:05.800 So, if we got new voters, if we got low propensity voters that break Trump, if we have more of a rural turnout,

00:09:11.880 if we have a registration advantage in New York that Republicans have over Democrats,

00:09:17.220 Trump could be in single digits there.

00:09:19.360 Now, when was it?

00:09:20.760 Do you remember Jack Cittarelli?

00:09:22.120 He ran for governor of New Jersey.

00:09:23.860 I'm not sure.

00:09:24.320 I think it was the 2022 cycle.

00:09:26.400 But this guy came in, and this is deep New Jersey, where we've got Phil Murphy, who made a laughingstock of the state during COVID,

00:09:34.040 out with his family at restaurants when he told us we couldn't go anywhere, you know, if we wanted to go to Jersey for dinner.

00:09:39.860 Now, they were more relaxed than New York.

00:09:41.420 But nonetheless, I watched that election, Mark.

00:09:44.880 And this is the problem that a lot of people don't realize who've never worked in politics, who just see it as what it is.

00:09:52.700 There's backroom deals that are made constantly in politics.

00:09:56.360 In other words, you know, I have a safe Republican seat.

00:09:59.380 You don't run a Democrat against me.

00:10:00.920 I don't have to spend the money.

00:10:02.100 And you know what?

00:10:02.480 In your safe Dem seat, I won't run a Democrat against you and vice versa.

00:10:06.880 And they make these deals so people are safe.

00:10:09.460 I looked at that race of Jack Cittarelli, who had zero name recognition. 0.97

00:10:13.140 And I got to be honest with you, I begged Lou to run for that seat from the day I met him because I thought he could have won.

00:10:20.000 But nonetheless, you have this guy, Jack Cittarelli, nobody's ever heard of before, who comes within a few points of beating an incumbent governor in deep blue, the armpit of America, New Jersey.

00:10:34.420 Sorry, I know you're a resident, but I'm from New York.

00:10:37.600 That's what we got to do.

00:10:39.360 So that's when I started to realize maybe something's going on here.

00:10:42.880 Then we see going into this election, we see in Virginia that things are switching.

00:10:47.700 Now we're hearing, Mark, we're hearing New Mexico may be in play.

00:10:52.400 What's going on here?

00:10:54.400 I mean, a massive realignment of government in America.

00:10:59.020 People are not happy with what they've seen in the four years during the Biden administration.

00:11:04.540 This is, you know, crackdowns and forced vaccines and businesses closed and supply chain shortage.

00:11:11.400 I could go on and on and on.

00:11:13.020 And it's going to have an impact.

00:11:14.680 And like you said, I mean, the peak Biden distaste, I think the Cittarelli race was the fall of 21.

00:11:21.160 That was when people were chanting FJB in stadiums across America.

00:11:25.480 And that has an impact.

00:11:27.040 This is this election is a referendum on the Biden administration. 1.00

00:11:30.520 And they basically suck. 0.98

00:11:32.460 And I watched that Cittarelli race because I live in New Jersey. 0.99

00:11:35.460 And quite frankly, it fits the mold of what I expect to see in a blue state, which is Cittarelli was up.

00:11:42.100 Cittarelli was up until the late middle of the night returns from heavily blue districts come.

00:11:47.880 And oh, OK, well, we didn't get quite close enough, guys.

00:11:51.040 Gee.

00:11:51.600 But I did that.

00:11:52.720 I did the New Jersey numbers to forcing a sample of New Jersey voters to a Biden 2020 plus 16.

00:12:00.640 I think I came out with Trump down nine.

00:12:02.800 So, again, there's a massive shift to the right.

00:12:05.460 I didn't do anything controversial.

00:12:07.360 It could be a lot tighter than that.

00:12:09.680 And I think Virginia is on the table.

00:12:11.960 I pulled Virginia last month and I had Harris plus three.

00:12:16.260 But all the states have moved to the right since then.

00:12:18.960 And now all of a sudden, I think if I go into Virginia, I'm actually putting it into the field tonight.

00:12:24.140 I might see a statistical tie in that state.

00:12:27.000 I didn't do anything controversial with the waitings.

00:12:30.280 We might see a Trump overperformance there.

00:12:32.980 It might go to Trump.

00:12:34.360 I mean, listen, they elected Youngkin.

00:12:36.240 So, yep.

00:12:37.100 Well, according to Roanoke, the last polling they did, they were in a statistical tie.

00:12:41.380 I spoke with Robert Cahaley the other day of Trafalgar, you know, just having some fun with him.

00:12:46.160 And I think he had said something to me along the lines of he said something Nevada.

00:12:52.360 He won't call Nevada for either because he says he never gets it right because I explained some disdain.

00:12:58.740 I just come back from Vegas and I said, Robert, I don't know what the hell is going on with those people over there.

00:13:03.540 I don't know what kind of drugs they're doing or what they're drinking, but I don't feel very confident.

00:13:07.680 I walked through the airport.

00:13:08.560 People were wearing masks everywhere.

00:13:10.020 TSA is wearing masks.

00:13:11.320 I was like, I don't feel confident.

00:13:12.340 And I think Robert came out to me and said something along the lines of I think Trump would win Virginia.

00:13:18.200 I'd give Trump Virginia before I did Nevada.

00:13:21.360 I want to take a quick break here.

00:13:22.380 We're talking with Mark Mitchell.

00:13:23.640 He's the head pollster for Rasmussen.

00:13:26.000 I mean, one of the very few guys who get it right.

00:13:28.920 And they do an honest job at it.

00:13:32.060 There's not very many pollsters out there who are honest.

00:13:34.680 And that's something we all have to understand.

00:13:36.720 It's the new reality.

00:13:37.980 Trump derangement syndrome is real.

00:13:40.020 And it's attacking people each and every day.

00:13:43.680 Again, we're talking about Mark Mitchell.

00:13:45.160 We're coming right back.

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00:14:52.220 We're back.

00:14:55.420 We're talking with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen, some of the leading pollsters in this country.

00:15:00.980 Top three, in my opinion, if not number one.

00:15:04.820 Mark, early voting is underway.

00:15:06.820 18 million Americans as of this second.

00:15:09.700 Tomorrow, there'll be more.

00:15:10.600 And the following day, there'll be more.

00:15:12.140 It's underway.

00:15:12.860 47 states and Washington, D.C., all partaking in it.

00:15:18.640 But you got headlines from people at The New York Times saying,

00:15:25.260 President Trump, who once said early voting is horrible, now all of a sudden changing his mind on it.

00:15:31.820 And trying to go after President Trump for now endorsing early voting.

00:15:36.600 And it's a simple thing that I tell everybody.

00:15:38.820 Dr. Oz went into election day down, I think, over a million votes to Neanderthal John Fetterman.

00:15:43.720 You got a brilliant surgeon doctor who loses to a Neanderthal, goes into election day, down a million votes.

00:15:50.080 Now, I don't agree with early voting.

00:15:52.000 I think it should be gone.

00:15:53.820 The people who need to vote by mail, Mark, should vote by mail because they can't be in the country at the time.

00:16:00.040 They can't leave the House.

00:16:01.060 They're elderly, whatever the reason may be.

00:16:03.180 We shouldn't have millions and millions of people voting by mail.

00:16:06.440 We shouldn't have millions of people voting early.

00:16:08.920 That's what it is.

00:16:09.900 So, as I said, I don't agree with it, Mark, but we have to deal with the hand that we are dealt.

00:16:16.600 We cannot continue to let these Democrats go into these states in early vote and we don't partake in it.

00:16:22.120 We cannot let them go into states like Nevada and do legal ballot harvesting and we not partake in it.

00:16:27.480 I think the Republicans, and correct me if I'm wrong, are maybe doing a little bit better job this time than they did in 2020.

00:16:33.220 Tell me, if you will, what your data is showing you as for early voting right now and what it means for President Trump.

00:16:40.960 So, we actually, we polled on this and I'll tell you, I haven't been watching the state-by-state returns very closely because I'll tell you, there's a lot of misinformation out there.

00:16:49.720 There's a lot of spin, a lot of people chewing their fingernails about stuff that, quite frankly, we just got to wait and see.

00:16:56.080 I will say, I think a lot of what I see confirms my polling, which is one more validation point, including the betting markets that show that we're right.

00:17:03.180 But, we did poll, thinking of the presidential election, how do you plan to vote this year?

00:17:08.320 And this was done like 10 days ago, so it's already pretty stale.

00:17:12.420 But, in-person election days, 45% of the electorate, 29% early in-person voting.

00:17:18.040 So, it's still more election day and 23% say vote by mail.

00:17:22.140 I'm pretty sure that is in line with the massive reduction in mail that we've seen since the last cycle, let's just say.

00:17:28.820 But, here's the bad news for Democrats, people who say, in-person on election day, 50% of Republicans, or sorry, 50% of Trump voters, 39% of Harris voters.

00:17:42.080 So, according to these national numbers, and it's a pretty big poll, Republicans are going to outperform on election day.

00:17:48.640 And, I think most of the spin you see is that, well, Democrats decided not to vote in-person on this time, inexplicably, against all previous cycles worth of experience.

00:18:00.060 And, that just doesn't look like it's going to be the case.

00:18:02.500 And, there's still a lot of Republicans voting early in-person, 28% of them, compared to 26% of Democrats.

00:18:08.760 But, Democrats, again, like always, have the edge on vote by mail.

00:18:12.300 You know, the old joke, I think it used to be, for Republicans, they start out slow because they're working-class people, and they go to work that day, and the Democrats don't work.

00:18:22.680 So, they go out and vote early, and the Republicans always catch up later.

00:18:25.580 But, from all the numbers I'm seeing now that I monitor every single day on Twitter, the Republicans and Democrats are neck and neck with slight Republican edge in early voting.

00:18:38.100 In these key states like North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Republicans, like you just said, statistically like to show up on election day and vote.

00:18:50.200 So, now, when you're going into election day, Mark, and like I said, I always use the Dr. Oz example, neck and neck, maybe up a little bit or down a little bit.

00:18:59.240 And, you know, your base turns out because the Trump voters, they are.

00:19:03.200 They like to go out on election day.

00:19:04.480 They like to go out and show their pride.

00:19:05.820 They pull up with their cars with the flags out, the American flags.

00:19:08.800 And, you know, they like to make a showing that they're there to support the man they love so much.

00:19:14.280 When you go into that, I think it's very hard to lose, as you've said. 0.78

00:19:19.600 The thing that scares the shit out of me, Mark, is this.

00:19:22.660 The Democrats are seeing what these numbers are now.

00:19:25.600 And cheating is an issue we've seen in the 2020 election and maybe years before.

00:19:32.540 Democrats see these numbers and they see where they're at and they know where they are going into election day.

00:19:38.340 And it kind of scares me a little bit that they may play with maybe some mail-in ballots.

00:19:43.240 You know, you've got Brad Raffensperger down in Georgia who's saying, we won't know who's won the election until Friday because we've got 25,000 or something like that.

00:19:52.740 Ballots coming from overseas.

00:19:54.360 When you hear things like that happen and you put the two and two together, Mark, it scares the hell out of me.

00:19:59.440 What do you think?

00:20:00.980 I think you're right to be scared.

00:20:03.200 That's the issue.

00:20:04.520 What I should be able to tell you, based on my polling, is that Donald Trump is winning.

00:20:09.800 Incontrovertibly, he's doing better than he has in any previous cycle.

00:20:12.560 But the fact that we all live through 2020 makes it, everybody's caveating everything.

00:20:18.580 And there is a very strong case that Donald Trump's going to win.

00:20:22.280 But quite frankly, it's a stack of a lot of probabilities.

00:20:26.220 He's probably outperforming Clinton in the national popular vote.

00:20:29.780 The air of polling in the swing states is probably going to be to the left.

00:20:34.260 The betting market is probably correct.

00:20:37.540 Republicans will probably still outperform Democrats on election day.

00:20:42.140 If you stack all of those probabilities, you get a Trump win, which is what everything's saying.

00:20:47.420 All of the prediction models, all of the betting markets, and increasingly the polling are saying that Trump's going to win.

00:20:53.800 Problem is, right, everybody lived through 2020.

00:20:58.180 66% of voters think it's at least somewhat likely this election is going to be affected by cheating.

00:21:04.320 We had 50 to 60, depending on the poll, percent of people that think the outcome of 2020 was affected by cheating. 0.99

00:21:10.400 We even have half the electorate that at least somewhat agree with the premise of that song, 81 million votes, my ass. 0.98

00:21:17.920 So, I mean, like the signals of cheating are off the chart. 0.98

00:21:21.320 And people, I think, see through all of these things like, you know, the mail-in ballots.

00:21:27.600 They think it's to make things easier to cheat.

00:21:29.800 By a two-to-one margin, they want votes counted on election day and not dragged out.

00:21:33.600 And what is really scary to me is I've been tracking the national psyche in a way that most other pollsters aren't.

00:21:40.040 We are not in a healthy place to go into an election where Donald Trump is leading in every single form of prediction,

00:21:46.300 only to have three to four battleground, key battleground states drag it out for a week, a month for lawyers to get involved.

00:21:54.240 It will not be healthy.

00:21:55.600 Roughly half of voters think that irregardless of what candidate wins, there's going to be a violent reaction.

00:22:01.020 And we're talking about something that's like 11 days away now.

00:22:04.760 Mark, we all went to bed at election night, and I just drew a quick graphic.

00:22:07.600 There's two markers in front of me, and this is what we saw at midnight.

00:22:13.180 We woke up the next morning, and it was this.

00:22:16.020 I mean, you're a man of polling, so you see a lot of trends.

00:22:19.900 There was no trend in that.

00:22:21.520 I mean, that's like something we've never seen before.

00:22:24.180 So it scares the hell out of me now that the Democrats will have more information than they did in 2020.

00:22:31.020 And they'll know how many more mail-in ballots they have to wait for.

00:22:36.900 It really scares me. 1.00

00:22:38.480 Nate Silver, who I think is a total sleazebag, slimebag idiot, doesn't know a damn thing, 1.00

00:22:44.140 says his gut tells him Trump's going to win, but don't trust anyone's gut. 1.00

00:22:49.920 I'm not exactly sure what he was trying to say, but you've got guys all over the map.

00:22:54.960 Jim Cramer, who's been statistically wrong about everything, Mark.

00:22:58.900 I think there's a Twitter page that goes into, if you took all of Jim Cramer's trades,

00:23:03.880 how much in the hole you would be.

00:23:06.860 It's not good.

00:23:08.320 I'm hearing rumblings inside of MSNBC that maybe he's changing his mind.

00:23:12.840 I hope he doesn't change his mind.

00:23:14.260 Oh, boy.

00:23:14.520 And I hope he sticks with Kamala, because we know he's always wrong.

00:23:18.740 But it's just very alarming to me.

00:23:22.720 The mainstream media, they're, I mean, a complete meltdown.

00:23:26.020 The View, I won't watch it, but I'll, you know, see clips on Twitter. 0.97

00:23:30.460 Joy Behar saying, it's hard to believe people support a fascist pig because he uses the same 0.96

00:23:36.160 language as Hitler. 0.97

00:23:37.560 I mean, who is Joy Behar?

00:23:39.320 Do these people have mirrors?

00:23:41.140 Do they look inside of a mirror every day when they wake up on who they are?

00:23:45.360 You and I were talking before the show about people selling out their souls to Hollywood,

00:23:50.360 the elites.

00:23:51.780 President Trump has not sold out to anybody, Mark.

00:23:55.160 This presidency has cost him his life, nearly cost him his actual life two times.

00:24:00.840 It's cost him his personal life as a superstar, loved by everybody.

00:24:07.460 It's cost him billions of dollars in business dealings, and it's hurt him.

00:24:13.160 I mean, things came out that would have never come out before affecting his personal life.

00:24:18.840 What are these people?

00:24:19.780 I mean, what is wrong with them, Mark?

00:24:22.140 In my opinion, it boils down to jealousy, I think, because President Trump does and says

00:24:26.660 whatever he wants to do, and he gets away with it. 0.97

00:24:29.600 But I can't figure out what is wrong with these people that they're so mentally deranged. 0.85

00:24:34.440 I think the obvious take, looking at it objectively, in my opinion, is that they're the brown shirts 0.92

00:24:42.420 of a kleptocratic oligarchy, let's just say.

00:24:48.340 Because really, they are not helping the nation.

00:24:51.400 I have a slew of numbers.

00:24:54.180 During the Biden administration now, 60% of people think the media is the enemy of the people.

00:25:00.360 That's a new one.

00:25:01.080 They've completely lost trust in the media.

00:25:03.180 You can look at the Gallup numbers that just got put out now if you need confirmation.

00:25:08.340 MSNBC viewers and Fox News, Newsmax viewers have totally different views of the world.

00:25:14.860 75% pick a random swing state.

00:25:17.000 75% of MSNBC viewers think the number one issue is Trump's threat to democracy.

00:25:21.260 Number two is abortion. 0.97

00:25:22.820 Fox News and Newsmax, it's the economy and the border, which are objectively like the problems.

00:25:28.860 And maybe they sell that sold out.

00:25:31.780 Maybe they're just part of an entire mechanism that has arrayed itself quite transparently to stop Trump.

00:25:38.000 And I think the only takeaway is that voters realize it and want him more because of that.

00:25:44.340 I mean, look at what the indictments did and look at, I mean, he's got higher favorability ratings than ever before.

00:25:50.740 This is a president that, according to MSNBC, attempted to violently overthrow the government in 2021.

00:25:59.380 And his favorability rating is higher right now than both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

00:26:03.940 And Taylor Swift, Mark.

00:26:05.160 I can't believe you did not get that in there.

00:26:07.360 Taylor Swift is like everyone's fangirl.

00:26:11.620 I mean, there's got – look at Travis Kelsey.

00:26:13.540 He's fangirled and got her.

00:26:15.760 They're higher than – higher approval rating than the Supreme Court, than Congress, than the federal government, than the CIA, than the FBI, than Mitch McConnell, than Speaker Johnson, Hakeem Jeffries.

00:26:29.700 Higher than literally everybody, including like Disney.

00:26:32.960 Even higher than – like literally everybody's got a lower favorability rate than Donald Trump.

00:26:38.420 I'm sorry.

00:26:39.380 That's like the reality.

00:26:40.620 And people will say, oh, you're a right-wing pollster.

00:26:42.520 No, go look at Gallup.

00:26:44.200 They show that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are roughly equal, which is about what we do.

00:26:48.640 Donald Trump edges her out a little bit.

00:26:51.000 And everybody else that shows Harris winning shows that Donald Trump has like a 20 to 25-point favorability disadvantage. 0.93

00:26:57.780 It's like clown world.

00:26:58.880 They've created the world inside their polls they want to see. 0.84

00:27:01.680 You know the problem with Donald Trump, too, that they have is Donald Trump is either really loved or really hated.

00:27:07.760 So that's why I think Kamala Harris is not likable by any means. 1.00

00:27:12.660 I've never met the woman.

00:27:13.860 Mark, I couldn't care less about ever meeting her. 0.77

00:27:16.880 She looks like just a phony person who everything's a joke to her, brain dead, doesn't know what's going on, should never be in this job in the first place, shouldn't have had any of the prior jobs she's had, don't know how she's got them. 0.98

00:27:30.840 But the woman is just very, you know, fake. 0.99

00:27:36.120 She's not genuine.

00:27:37.140 And I think the voters actually see through that.

00:27:40.240 And I think what we're seeing this election is people are putting their Trump derangement aside, some of them.

00:27:47.000 Now, the ones who have it really bad, it's getting worse, Mark, because they're coming to reality of what's going to happen.

00:27:51.740 But these people who had semi Trump derangement syndrome in 2020, I think are putting that aside and saying my life was better under President Trump. 0.98

00:28:01.140 And this woman's a fraud and a phony. 1.00

00:28:03.060 And what we've got under Joe Biden these last four years is absolutely hurt us. 0.99

00:28:08.040 It's ruined our lives.

00:28:09.460 I want to take one more quick break here.

00:28:11.620 We're talking with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster for Rasmussen.

00:28:14.780 Mark, when we come back, I want to take up this October surprise.

00:28:19.520 Donald Trump's got an October surprise.

00:28:22.040 We're going to tell you all about it when we return.

00:28:23.900 Stay with us.

00:28:24.440 Coming right back.

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00:29:31.140 We're back.

00:29:34.420 We're talking with Mark Mitchell, head pollster for Rasmussen, 11 days till election day, November 5th.

00:29:41.320 And we've got an October surprise.

00:29:44.100 I think this one came from The Atlantic, The Dishonest.

00:29:47.660 I wouldn't even call them a news outlet.

00:29:49.440 I'd put them in the category of People Magazine, more like tabloid gossip.

00:29:53.600 You know, like one of those magazines you get on the line, the checkout line at Publix or supermarkets that had, like, Michael Jackson dying for 10 years before he actually died.

00:30:05.320 Get away with everything.

00:30:07.500 Atlantic News has new reporting out, and it comes from John Kelly, the former chief of staff to President Trump.

00:30:13.160 Speaking of Trump derangement syndrome, he's very sick with it.

00:30:16.340 And he's alleging that President Trump said in a meeting, among other people, yet he's the only one who's confirmed this so far, Mark.

00:30:23.020 That Donald Trump allegedly said he wants more generals or wish he had more generals like Adolf Hitler had.

00:30:32.000 I mean, is this the most absurd October surprise you've heard?

00:30:39.100 Yeah.

00:30:39.440 I mean, literally convicting him as a felon wasn't enough to take Donald Trump out.

00:30:45.380 And now the word of some guy.

00:30:47.140 And I love this was a big topic of conversation today on Mark Halperin's two-way show.

00:30:52.120 They pair up a Democrat with a Republican and they talk about it.

00:30:55.760 But what's crazy is when two D.C. politicos are talking, they couldn't even bring themselves to acknowledge the fact that maybe Mark Kelly has some incentives to lie.

00:31:06.700 Am I calling him a liar?

00:31:08.080 I don't know.

00:31:09.220 But this is the same reality in which 51 former intelligence agency officials came out and absolutely lied to keep Donald Trump out of office.

00:31:17.960 And it was effective, in my opinion.

00:31:19.840 And that's one of the multiple on a list of many coups against the will of the elected people in this country.

00:31:26.480 So, yeah, it could happen.

00:31:27.860 But ultimately, what it comes down to looking at battleground voters, are you better off than you were four years ago?

00:31:34.620 Only 37 percent of battleground voters say yes.

00:31:37.440 Will today's children be better off than their parents?

00:31:39.820 Only 22 percent of battleground voters say yes. 0.97

00:31:42.400 So I quite frankly don't think they give a crap about what Donald Trump says behind closed doors. 0.68

00:31:47.960 And to be honest with you, Hitler probably did have some pretty good generals because with a pretty small population and manufacturing base, he took over a pretty good portion of Europe. 0.94

00:31:56.840 I mean, I'm sorry.

00:31:58.080 That isn't.

00:31:58.940 But that's history, Mark.

00:32:00.460 You're you're.

00:32:01.000 See, I agree with you.

00:32:02.840 But that's history.

00:32:03.720 Right.

00:32:04.080 And there's people who say Adolf Hitler was very smart and he got away with what he did. 0.93

00:32:09.080 And if he was a little bit smarter, he would have waited till the summer and not went into the winter.

00:32:13.140 You know, this is history, Mark.

00:32:15.280 It's fact.

00:32:15.980 But these Democrats can't talk based on fact.

00:32:19.060 If you say Vladimir Putin is smart, you're automatically a Russian asset.

00:32:24.520 You're a spy for calling out what it is.

00:32:27.640 Vladimir Putin is smart.

00:32:28.900 He's smarter than Joe Biden.

00:32:30.780 He's smarter than Kamala Harris.

00:32:32.140 He's smarter than Vladimir Zelensky.

00:32:33.580 He's probably smarter than Xi Jinping.

00:32:35.800 It's the truth, Mark.

00:32:37.300 The facts are the facts.

00:32:39.080 But these people can't talk.

00:32:40.500 In fact, everything is you're a Russian asset. 0.52

00:32:43.420 You're a Chinese spy. 0.83

00:32:45.700 It's only control reality with gaslighting.

00:32:48.680 That's a perfect example of why Kamala Harris failed when she went on Fox News. 1.00

00:32:53.140 I mean, listen, that could have been a success if they had planned better. 1.00

00:32:57.700 The problem is, is that you could tell immediately and everybody says she's stupid. 1.00

00:33:01.340 I think she's kind of smart, probably. 1.00

00:33:03.320 It's just that how could she have played that?

00:33:06.120 She had the wrong strategy completely.

00:33:08.600 It was almost like she was wrestling to assert a different reality to Brett Baer instead of just answering the questions honestly, objectively.

00:33:17.800 And that's the problem we found ourselves in.

00:33:20.640 And that's why we're closer to civil war than at any point in our polling, for sure.

00:33:24.820 Forty three percent of Americans nationally think a civil war or revolution is happening in the next few years.

00:33:29.760 It's because objective fact has been thrown out the window for vibes and feelings.

00:33:37.440 You're absolutely right about the Fox News interview.

00:33:39.980 Brett Baer is not a Republican. 0.83

00:33:41.820 He's a rhino at best.

00:33:43.220 And sitting there watching him sit down and talk with Kamala Harris, it was just funny because I couldn't tell which one of them was more real than the other.

00:33:52.180 Brett Baer's plastic surgery face or Kamala Harris's whole fake life that she's been living.

00:33:57.740 So it was tough for me to watch the clips that I did watch.

00:34:00.720 Nonetheless, I think it was probably one of Brett's best interviews he's ever done.

00:34:04.600 And that says a lot because he hasn't done many.

00:34:08.280 I want to turn to actually before I turn to something, you'd mentioned a John Kelly and maybe being a liar, maybe not being a liar.

00:34:15.100 The problem we have with John Kelly is the same one we have with John McCain.

00:34:18.680 You have to differentiate, Mark, between a military career and a political career.

00:34:23.900 There are people who are in the military.

00:34:25.520 Anyone who goes to serve for this country at the time is a great person and you're a hero and everything you're doing for this country, you're an absolute total hero.

00:34:34.000 When you get out of the military, Mark, and you go into private sector life, it doesn't mean that you're not going to become a bad person and the vice versa.

00:34:40.500 There's people who went to jail for doing horrendous things to people, have come out and found God, found Jesus, and they become different people, right?

00:34:49.540 Yeah.

00:34:49.980 People don't differentiate the military service career and the political career.

00:34:55.080 John McCain was in the military.

00:34:56.840 He served this country honorably.

00:34:58.300 He got out.

00:34:58.880 He became a politician.

00:35:00.140 He was no good. 0.98

00:35:00.860 He was a war criminal. 0.70

00:35:01.760 The guy loved war more than John Bolton, which was hard to find.

00:35:06.960 And Nikki Haley.

00:35:08.480 Doesn't make them – you have to differentiate, too.

00:35:11.060 So I just had to get that.

00:35:12.020 John, let me go a step further.

00:35:13.180 This is like – you're pitching in my strike zone here.

00:35:16.800 I was former military.

00:35:18.420 I'll go a step further and say stuff that you don't seem to want to say.

00:35:21.880 There are people absolutely in the military.

00:35:23.800 The word that you're looking for is integrity.

00:35:27.100 And the military knows this and understands this.

00:35:29.640 That's because it's a key part of what it tries to instill in its members.

00:35:34.520 It's not necessarily that you're bad.

00:35:37.220 It's that you have to try hard to do the right things, and sometimes the right thing is hard.

00:35:42.040 And there are absolutely 100% people that I experienced in the military that lacked integrity.

00:35:47.600 I mean, we had chemists add the wrong chemicals to the wrong steam generator. 0.87

00:35:52.260 That's really bad.

00:35:53.220 You know, we had somebody lose a whole lot of ComSec material.

00:35:57.100 That's really bad.

00:35:58.380 And anybody can lose their integrity at any point in time.

00:36:01.380 The thing is, you can also get it back.

00:36:03.480 It all comes down to trust, right?

00:36:05.340 And so it's reasonable to expect no matter what a person's military career, no matter how decorated they are,

00:36:12.400 if the incentives are for them to come out like this and try and attack somebody,

00:36:17.800 you better try and understand why.

00:36:19.860 And if it's a failure of integrity, it's totally reasonable.

00:36:23.220 But it's like the politicos don't want to evaluate that possibility because they're afraid it's going to get back to them at a cocktail party.

00:36:30.740 Yeah.

00:36:30.880 And, you know, the reason I get touchy on that is because, you know, I didn't go to the military.

00:36:35.520 I chose not to.

00:36:36.740 And, you know, I kind of look back in resentment and kind of wish that I did.

00:36:41.220 And I wish I had the guts of the time when I was 18 years old before I went to college to go ahead and do it.

00:36:46.080 It is what it is.

00:36:47.000 You know, my life turned out the way it turned out.

00:36:48.560 I'm very happy with it.

00:36:49.820 But, you know, like you said, there's good people who do bad things and there's bad people who wind up doing good things.

00:36:56.460 And we have to differentiate that.

00:36:58.380 I want to wrap up with here three key groups which are going to turn this election one way or another for either candidate.

00:37:07.640 And that's the black community, the Hispanic community, and the Jewish community.

00:37:13.300 So I just want to break down into those three groups.

00:37:15.680 We can start with the black community first. 0.99

00:37:17.980 It's apparent that President Trump has got these people, this community, on his side because they see through the bullshit. 0.99

00:37:26.480 You've got Barack Obama out there, identity politics, calling these guys brothers. 0.98

00:37:31.220 Who does that?

00:37:32.620 We're not Jim Crow anymore, Mark.

00:37:34.420 You don't go out there and talk to these people like you're better than them.

00:37:39.100 You're going to tell them what to do.

00:37:41.200 We're Americans.

00:37:42.200 Skin color, we're all the same on the inside, Mark.

00:37:45.140 Who the hell is Barack Obama to go out there and play identity politics with these people because of skin color? 0.98

00:37:51.280 Yeah, it's really gross. 0.97

00:37:53.020 And I think when everybody looks back at this, and as we expect what happens, happens, which is Trump wins and there isn't a cheat.

00:37:59.540 One of the things that I think we're all going to see is how horrible the Democrats were at branding.

00:38:05.920 And this is somewhere that they had the upper hand.

00:38:08.340 And listen, they have deep pockets.

00:38:10.480 They could reach out to any of the best agencies in Manhattan.

00:38:14.220 They could pay for every consultant that they wanted to.

00:38:17.860 They could produce any kind of videos or ads.

00:38:20.720 And what they don't understand is that people have moved on.

00:38:23.940 They want authenticity.

00:38:24.540 I found a really good example, and there's probably a million ways that you could show this, but I just went to Google Trends and I Googled, I don't know, let's just say movie trailer.

00:38:36.600 And I compared it to podcasts.

00:38:39.320 And what happened is people's interest over the last 10 years in movie trailers has gone down 70%, but podcasts have gone up like 200, 300%.

00:38:47.280 That's because people want somebody they can trust, authenticity.

00:38:50.640 They don't want to be lied to and slick corporate crap is not going to move the needle anymore. 0.74

00:38:56.380 It's just not. 0.96

00:38:57.700 And here's the other thing that really disgusts me is that Obama didn't show up.

00:39:01.400 They didn't start this messaging until two weeks ago.

00:39:04.120 I've been showing the Democrats losing the black vote for 10 years now, 10 years.

00:39:09.500 In fact, all year, Donald Trump has been getting between 25 and 30% of the black vote.

00:39:15.200 What's kind of weird is just in the last week, we're above 30% again.

00:39:19.520 So it's almost like Obama coming out and doing this might not even be helping things, but making it worse.

00:39:25.760 Before I turn to Hispanics, I want to get into that. 0.99

00:39:28.020 You brought up an excellent point about podcasting this.

00:39:31.520 I come out and do the show every day, Mark, and I'm as genuine as can be.

00:39:35.720 I'm not a perfect person.

00:39:36.940 None of us are.

00:39:38.000 We're flawed human beings.

00:39:39.280 That's what we are.

00:39:39.960 But, you know, I come out here and I do the show every day and I don't owe anybody anything, Mark.

00:39:44.980 Nobody owes me anything.

00:39:46.700 Nobody comes out here and tells me what to say.

00:39:49.400 Lou's wife, who was very involved with the show when Lou was alive, you know, she's pretty much said to me, I trust you to make your best judgment on guests and everything you do.

00:39:58.320 And I have a team of people I work with.

00:39:59.960 We owe nothing to anybody and nobody comes out here and tells us what to say.

00:40:03.640 And every now and then I'll have a guest on that the audience doesn't like and they don't appreciate it.

00:40:07.880 And you know what?

00:40:08.420 I hear from them.

00:40:09.240 I see it in the ratings for that day's show.

00:40:11.320 But I move on and I think they forgive me because they come back the next day and, you know, they come back in masses and they come back with friends.

00:40:17.760 So this is a very important outlet that Lou had left me.

00:40:22.820 Millions of people to get the word out.

00:40:25.400 And, you know, I had the opportunity when Lou passed away to go on and get out of this industry that's so damn toxic.

00:40:31.120 And I said, you know, we built up an audience of millions and millions and tens of millions of people that I owe it to to finish what Lou and I had started.

00:40:40.360 So that's why I come out here every day and do that for the audience.

00:40:43.260 You know, just get that off of my chest.

00:40:45.260 I want to turn to Hispanics. 1.00

00:40:46.920 The trends we're seeing now with President Trump in 20, 2020, he outperformed 2016 in the Hispanic trends.

00:40:55.920 What's it looking like now relative to 2020?

00:40:58.200 I mean, this is exactly like the black vote. 0.99

00:41:02.080 It's been inexorably marching right.

00:41:04.740 And the Hispanic vote swung further right last cycle than the black vote did.

00:41:10.340 But now, depending on the poll, you could see Trump down a few points to like up double digits, to be honest with you.

00:41:15.980 I don't know exactly where it's going to come out.

00:41:18.340 It's really hard to actually trust the exit polling.

00:41:20.820 But I'm also not doing Spanish language poll.

00:41:24.780 Maybe I'm getting more people who say they are white first, but then Hispanic or vice versa. 0.97

00:41:31.000 So it's really hard to dial that in.

00:41:32.560 The point is, is a trend in our polling like Hillary Clinton won by 30, 40, whatever it was among the Hispanic vote.

00:41:39.920 And we're talking about Trump winning them now.

00:41:42.340 And this is just one more of the core demographics that Democrats have relied on, including the 18 to 39 year old vote that's just been abandoning them.

00:41:50.900 Now, of course, there are offsets.

00:41:52.200 The insane white liberal suburban cat lady vote is breaking on Democrat right now. 1.00

00:41:57.160 It really is. 0.98

00:41:57.800 And that's where we're at.

00:41:59.920 And ultimately, it comes down to who shows up.

00:42:03.460 But poll after poll, after betting market, after early turnout, like shows that this is all going in Trump's favor.

00:42:11.600 So, I mean, there it is.

00:42:13.180 And you talked about podcasts.

00:42:14.420 I want to make a very interesting point.

00:42:16.880 And this Joe Rogan thing is going to be incredible.

00:42:19.900 Yep.

00:42:20.360 We have, you know, how many news cycles are left between now and Election Day?

00:42:25.060 Not very many of them.

00:42:26.720 And people say, well, Joe Rogan's not a Trump guy.

00:42:29.160 Why would Trump try and go on?

00:42:31.220 And sometimes Trump rambles and blah, blah, blah, like some stuff like that.

00:42:34.480 No, he weaves.

00:42:35.240 He weaves.

00:42:36.080 Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:42:37.020 Called weaving.

00:42:38.260 And that point is, is that what have we been talking about?

00:42:41.680 Authenticity.

00:42:42.200 And here we have a Democrat party who has raised a billion dollars.

00:42:46.760 Forget that maybe three or four hundred of it is laundered, you know, small dollar donations that the government hasn't looked into.

00:42:53.480 But you might have Joe Rogan win the presidency for Donald Trump against a billion dollars.

00:43:01.700 How's that for the power of podcasts against this kleptocratic oligarchy?

00:43:07.420 And, you know, to be honest, do I think that Joe Rogan is going to move the polls?

00:43:10.880 No, but what it's going to do is it's going to shut Kamala Harris out of three days worth of news cycles. 1.00

00:43:16.320 Then she can't.

00:43:17.460 I mean, she's behind.

00:43:18.360 She needs to win every one of them.

00:43:20.580 I'll tell you right now, today's news cycle ain't winning or anything.

00:43:23.620 This Hitler won. 0.98

00:43:24.440 So yeah, better luck tomorrow, lady. 0.99

00:43:26.700 And she's taking a few days off.

00:43:29.300 The interesting thing about Joe Rogan, Mark, is that he's got an audience, an average audience on each episode of about 11, 12 million, maybe more now, maybe a little bit less.

00:43:38.500 I'm not sure.

00:43:39.800 Donald Trump breaks records.

00:43:41.160 We've had him on this show.

00:43:42.500 He outperforms every single guest.

00:43:44.260 I'm sorry to tell you this, Mark, but outperforms every guest two to three, four, four X.

00:43:48.580 I mean, it's just what it is.

00:43:50.100 So when he goes on Joe Rogan, the haters are going to watch him.

00:43:52.780 The people who love him are going to watch him.

00:43:53.900 The people who are undecided are going to watch him.

00:43:55.280 If it's 15 million people, if it's 20 million people listening, we got to look at numbers like Georgia.

00:44:01.840 Trump lost Georgia by less than 20,000 votes.

00:44:04.940 Wisconsin, Trump lost Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes.

00:44:08.400 So you take these little masses out of 15 million people or 20 million people, and if he pulls over a few thousand people, Mark, if this is going to be this tight of an election, it moves the needle.

00:44:18.920 I want to wrap up with the last one and perhaps the most important one that polling is still a really disappoints me for the Jewish folks and why there's not more support from them from president for president Trump.

00:44:33.820 He supports them wholeheartedly.

00:44:36.340 If they don't believe me, go look at the Abraham Accords. 0.99

00:44:38.980 I firmly believe the only reason Israel is there today as this war goes on is because of those Abraham Accords. 0.99

00:44:46.380 I firmly believe if they weren't in power, if they weren't enacted, we'd see a lot different situation unfolding in Gaza right now.

00:44:54.100 So how are we looking with the Jewish vote?

00:44:58.120 So this is another tough one.

00:44:59.980 I would say the Hispanic vote is elusive.

00:45:02.280 The Jewish vote is like 50 times more elusive.

00:45:04.960 I did a combined swing state swing state set of polling 10,200 respondents, and I only got 243 Jewish responses.

00:45:16.080 So we're talking about a really small subsample.

00:45:18.140 I think the margin of error here is like five or six percent.

00:45:20.400 But we had it going, Harris, 56 percent to 40 percent.

00:45:28.280 So that is bad.

00:45:30.280 Yeah, but how, Mark?

00:45:31.640 The Democrats, if they retain power, there's going to be a two-state solution.

00:45:36.500 I don't know if these folks understand that.

00:45:39.000 There will be a two-state solution if these people, they may not be saying it now, and it's because of this exact reason.

00:45:44.540 How is it still that spread?

00:45:47.300 It's mind-blowing to me.

00:45:48.860 The Republicans are the only ones that support them.

00:45:51.400 I don't know if I got Jews in name only.

00:45:53.880 I don't know if I got Orthodox Jews.

00:45:55.940 I don't know if I have urban or suburban Jews.

00:45:58.280 And if I tried to start slicing and dicing and looking at it even closer, the signal is going to go away.

00:46:04.200 It's too statistically insignificant.

00:46:07.040 We're talking about a percent or two of the electorate.

00:46:09.620 And quite frankly, the people in that group that are voting because of their cultural values, specifically Judaism, are probably pretty small.

00:46:19.720 They're probably voting because of social pressure, because of pet issues, because of all their friends and family, or other reasons why normal people would vote.

00:46:29.600 Which is, again, why the Hispanics are breaking Trump.

00:46:33.500 Because you could say, oh, well, like, yeah, they don't want to see people crack down illegal immigrants.

00:46:39.200 No, they do.

00:46:39.860 They want the illegal immigrants out. 1.00

00:46:41.820 And the Catholic values matter a lot to them.

00:46:44.740 And these are all things that Kamala Harris is, like, the absolute worst candidate. 1.00

00:46:49.100 And yet, still, they're not breaking for Trump 100%.

00:46:52.880 They've been breaking for Trump more and more over years and years.

00:46:57.260 So, it might take them a lot of time to come around.

00:46:59.940 But quite frankly, like, Trump's winning it without him.

00:47:03.800 Yeah, but the only difference is, Mark, with the Jewish vote is, like, their life actually relies on it. 0.72

00:47:09.640 Most Jewish folks in this country have some sort of ties back to Israel, whether it still be family there or whether they be born there.

00:47:16.680 The Hispanic folks and the black folks in this country, nothing's going to change for them. 1.00

00:47:21.240 You know, we're still a great nation.

00:47:23.940 Regardless of who the president is, they'll still be here, the legal ones.

00:47:27.780 So, it doesn't change for them.

00:47:29.000 But these folks, it really blows my mind.

00:47:31.720 And it really disappoints me that it's not in Trump's favor because of all he's done.

00:47:37.340 It's not like he's come out here, Mark, and says he's going to do X, Y, and Z.

00:47:41.660 The Abraham Accords, for anyone who doesn't know what they are, go do some research on the Abraham Accords.

00:47:47.920 Tell your Jewish friends.

00:47:49.240 I mean, because it's important that these people understand what President Trump did for them and what he'll continue to do for them.

00:47:55.680 I don't think we see a two-state solution under President Trump.

00:47:58.460 But under, I won't even say president, we won't say her name.

00:48:02.480 But, you know, in that administration, we'll see a two-state solution.

00:48:05.660 Mark, we pray to God that you are right.

00:48:09.020 I know you're a man of faith.

00:48:10.180 Please, you've got two more Sundays before this election.

00:48:14.660 Please go to church for me and pray to God that Donald Trump pulls this thing out on November 5th because our lives depend on it.

00:48:23.700 They really do.

00:48:24.760 Well, the evangelical Christians are definitely voting Trump.

00:48:27.600 But I don't know.

00:48:28.060 The Protestants got to get it together.

00:48:29.640 Evangelical Christians go Trump 35 points. 0.67

00:48:31.880 Protestants, depending on the state, it's roughly tied to Trump up a few points.

00:48:36.400 It's like two totally different religions. 0.99

00:48:38.980 But listen, you know, there's a lot of time between now and Election Day.

00:48:42.400 Kamala Harris is definitely caught in the doom loop. 0.99

00:48:45.420 And day after day, more people join us in the 2% club. 0.89

00:48:49.120 You can put Harris X for polling in the 2% club today.

00:48:52.620 Tip's probably going to come back.

00:48:54.240 You know, Atlas, Incel, Inside Advantage.

00:48:56.420 They're all there, too.

00:48:57.580 So is Trafalgar.

00:48:58.340 I think we're going to see Rich Barris.

00:49:00.660 Donald Trump's probably winning the national popular vote.

00:49:03.300 That's going to be a sweep of the swing states.

00:49:05.980 And I think all the data agrees with it.

00:49:08.780 The doom loop.

00:49:09.900 I love it.

00:49:10.980 One more quick question before I let you go.

00:49:15.140 Give me your best guess.

00:49:17.540 Does Donald Trump win New York?

00:49:19.780 Oh, absolutely not.

00:49:21.040 Sorry, folks.

00:49:22.200 Okay.

00:49:22.640 He's got a good shot in Virginia.

00:49:24.280 He's got a good shot maybe in Minnesota.

00:49:26.720 New Mexico is a really tough one to call.

00:49:29.460 And I'm pulling New Hampshire tomorrow.

00:49:31.040 So we'll see.

00:49:31.660 But Virginia is the one that everybody should look at.

00:49:33.780 Like, you know, your eyes shouldn't be too big for your stomach there.

00:49:36.960 I hope you're wrong about New York.

00:49:38.500 We'll see what Madison Square Garden does.

00:49:40.500 We'll see.

00:49:41.100 Well, I'll be there on Sunday.

00:49:42.660 I'm going to get to see.

00:49:43.320 Oh, yeah.

00:49:43.920 I'll talk to him and give him a little hell for what Lou would have done.

00:49:48.240 But, Mark, we appreciate everything you're doing.

00:49:50.160 Like I said, we pray to God that you're right and you're wrong about New York.

00:49:53.060 Because we'll just add to a massive victory, Walter Mondale style.

00:49:57.620 Yeah, right.

00:49:58.900 But we appreciate all the honesty and the great work you're doing.

00:50:02.480 Mark Mitchell, leading head pollster for Rasmussen.

00:50:06.020 Like I said, one of the few good guys in this business.

00:50:08.880 Thanks so much, Mark.

00:50:10.080 Thank you.

00:50:10.900 Thanks to Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen.

00:50:12.880 And as I said, Rasmussen does a terrific job.

00:50:15.100 And they have a great amount of integrity.

00:50:17.920 It was a term that Mark used in the interview.

00:50:20.740 They have a great deal of integrity.

00:50:23.200 And I think they do an honest job of all their polling that they do.

00:50:27.340 Be sure to join us back here tomorrow, folks, for The Great America Show as our quest for truth, justice, and the American way continues.

00:50:33.680 Be sure to follow me on Twitter at John FawcettNY.

00:50:36.460 And on Truth Social at John Fawcett.

00:50:38.640 You can also now follow us on Instagram.

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00:50:56.100 Be sure to do that.

00:50:57.120 And we appreciate it.

00:50:59.200 We'll see you right back here tomorrow for The Great America Show.

00:51:01.520 May God bless you.

00:51:02.860 May God bless America.

00:51:03.680 And may God bless the great, great Lou Dobbs.

The Great America Show - October 24, 2024

TRUMP ENTERS THE FINAL STRETCH LEADING KAMALA

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