00:32:33.540And when that and that that that all these M's that you're talking about, the money supply
00:32:38.460measures, M zero, M one, M two and three and four and so forth.
00:32:42.540So that that that is what comes out of this expanded government spending, government deficit, key, the key Fed monetizing the debt by buying these bonds and expanding their balance sheet at the Fed and expanding the money supply.
00:32:59.700Right. Now, now, now that let me just go.
00:33:48.160The only difference is you'd actually get your principal and interest back from buying a bond rather than a tax.
00:33:54.660So so this it's it's a little bit tricky for people to get their their head around government spending and government deficits does not necessarily lead to inflation.
00:34:08.040It if the bonds are not purchased by the Federal Reserve, the central bank and monetized.
00:34:16.960So they're so called operations at the Fed.
00:34:22.080They create money when they buy and they draw money when they sell.
00:35:07.680They have all these ad hoc reasonings and and the ad hoc reasons our supply chain is causing it.
00:35:16.780The plug port and Long Beach, the covid, the used cars.
00:35:23.340We don't we can't produce enough cars because semiconductor problems.
00:35:27.300And you name it, there there is an infinite there are an infinite variety of ad hoc reasons for inflation.
00:35:35.860They're all irrelevant and they're all wrong.
00:35:38.400The only thing causing inflation is the money supply, period.
00:35:44.400And by the way, this this is something you've been on for years.
00:35:48.980If you look at the press, the press is complicit in all of this cover up because it is a cover up all these ad hoc reasons.
00:35:59.660And and they don't report it because they bought the spin coming out of Washington or they're just it's possible they're just incompetent and don't get it that way.
00:36:11.760But the bottom line is Hankey's 95 percent rule, Hankey's 95 percent rule is that everything 95 percent of what you read in the financial press is either wrong or irrelevant.
00:36:26.400And and 95 percent, maybe even higher on this inflation thing is either wrong or irrelevant.
00:36:34.120Or they're trying to push their own book.
00:36:36.020Or that, yeah, absolutely put a lot of pushing their own book.
00:36:41.120I mean, they they basically are buying the spin that's coming out of Washington.
00:37:16.980Yeah, let me before we turn the page, Lou, the key thing is and the thing that Greenwood and I were talking about even back in July is this inflation is not going to be temporary.
00:38:24.620This this this is this forecast is based on the assumption that the Fed will actually start slowing down the money supply.
00:38:37.560Right now, the money supply is growing at a little over 12 percent measured by M sub two.
00:38:44.440And that's double the rate that would be consistent with hitting the Fed's inflation target at two percent.
00:38:51.940Right. So Green Greenwood and I have assumed in this forecast that quickly they will reduce the growth in the money supply down to around six percent.
00:39:03.340Get it get it in the zone where it where it has been and where it should be.
00:39:07.460And then we will still have this this inflation of around six to nine percent going into 2024 because they've already produced the excess money.
00:39:19.700In other words, this government spending and the government deficit and the monetization of that has already created a huge amount of excess money that will be drained out of the system and inflation over these next two or three years.
00:39:37.320So I want to ask you about some of the implications so people can put some money in their pocket or save the money they've got or at least have a very much better understanding of what these markets are going to do.
00:39:49.700What they're going to do and what they should expect in terms of our standard of living, our quality of life and our financial situations.
00:40:02.280If the inflation rate is going to do that through 24, we're talking about, I think, as I understand you correctly, four to four to six percent real inflation.
00:40:16.920And people want to know, should they be buying Bitcoin?
00:40:24.720So let's start with stocks in that environment.
00:40:27.900What is the history of staying in the market as inflation, inflation that we haven't seen for at least 40 years?
00:40:37.840And I think you've got to go back even farther to get a level like this.
00:40:42.400What is the what is what are your prospects if you're an investor in the stock market?
00:40:48.420OK, the best place to start is to look at the bond markets and see what the bond market actually is pricing in right now in terms of inflation.
00:41:01.300And if we do that, we find surprisingly that the market has bought into this spin coming out of Washington.
00:41:13.820They've priced in the the the transitory scenario for the next year.
00:41:21.300If you if you look at the forward curves and expectations about inflation, they're pricing in about three and a half percent inflation for the next year.
00:41:30.880Well, we're already at six point eight.
00:41:32.720So how in the world are they doing that?
00:41:36.800Then if you go beyond one year, Lou, that the rates drop to two to two and a half percent inflation is priced into the market.
00:41:46.320So my view is since since we already know that baked in the cake, we're going to have at least six percent inflation for the for the next two or three years, at least six percent, no matter no matter what the Fed does.
00:42:02.120Right. We have a massive mispricing of the bond market.
00:42:06.300We're going to have the biggest train wreck in the bond market that we've seen in the history of man because of this mispricing.
00:42:17.120Now, that will cause number one, the what's what's going to happen.
00:42:23.280Of course, the bond bond prices will tank for nominal bonds.
00:42:26.940I'm not talking about Treasury inflation protected securities tips bonds because they're protected from from inflation.
00:42:34.720But the nominal bond, by the way, I think we should say that when we talk about the tips bonds, that that is a very good choice for those who want to be cautious and to be insulated to a considerable degree against inflation.
00:42:53.920That's it. It's the only way if you're in the bond market, that's the only way you can protect yourself.
00:42:59.600Definitely. And in general, that is a good way to protect yourself.
00:43:04.680It is conservative, but it is it is protective.
00:43:09.980Now, the bond market is is just absolutely going to be killed and and riled up.
00:43:16.240Now, that will you ask about equities, Lou.
00:43:19.520I started with bonds and this what is an obvious, massive mispricing in the bond market is going to come home to roost with a lot of adjustments in the bond market.
00:43:33.160A lot of blood is going to be on the street and that will slop over into the stock market that it will rile the stock market tremendously.
00:43:43.340So right now, I think there are a lot of risk, not obviously in the bond market, but also in the stock market.
00:43:52.640And so what do you what do you what do you do?
00:45:49.560Gold has been around for thousands of years.
00:45:52.800And in fact, there's a there's a classic book called The Golden Constant, which is still in print.
00:46:00.540And the golden constant is that if you really want to protect yourself over long periods of time and protect yourself with constant purchasing power, gold is the way to go.
00:47:27.800And those and and if that isn't good enough to give a person a pause, I would like to remind everybody that, you know, when you've got El Salvador and communist China behind a speculative investment, a speculative asset.
00:47:45.360I'll put it that way if it's even an asset, you might give, you know, you might scratch your head and say, no, thank you.
00:47:52.020I've got to be very direct about this, Steve.
00:47:55.040I could have made a lot of money at Bitcoin, but I think it's I have thought from the very beginning that it is an absolute crapshoot with the advent of the involvement of the communist China behind its mining, behind its its transactions.
00:48:15.500In many parts of the world, there's no way in the world I touch most of the mining for Bitcoin was in China.
00:48:23.640But remember, China, even China has cut that out.
00:49:45.520I'll guarantee you this audience knows about they know they've got a choice and they make sure that those choices are.
00:49:51.920They're are assured this is a this is a tough, smart, independent, whether they're Republican or moderate or conservative, whatever you want to call them.
00:50:04.300You know, they're they believe in choice, because that's what this country is about, Steve, we're we've gone way over talking about things that I think a lot of people need to know.
00:50:15.320I hope that everybody has stayed with us through this.
00:50:18.800It's been very informative and I appreciate you taking the time.
00:50:42.800I'd love the the projection at important school, their model, four point six trillion dollars, they say, is the actual cost.
00:50:52.920And the Biden White House says it's zero.
00:50:54.840I don't think there's a better, better example of what's wrong right now with the White House and the swamp, as you so eloquently put it.
00:51:05.400Lou, the interesting thing is that the public is getting wise to this.
00:51:10.640The Federal National Mortgage Association just did a survey and 70 percent of the participants in the survey indicated that they thought President Biden was wrong way Corrigan.