The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast

00:00:00.960 Hey everyone, real quick before you skip, I want to talk to you about something serious and important.

00:00:06.480 Dr. Jordan Peterson has created a new series that could be a lifeline for those battling depression and anxiety.

00:00:12.740 We know how isolating and overwhelming these conditions can be, and we wanted to take a moment to reach out to those listening who may be struggling.

00:00:20.100 With decades of experience helping patients, Dr. Peterson offers a unique understanding of why you might be feeling this way in his new series.

00:00:27.420 He provides a roadmap towards healing, showing that while the journey isn't easy, it's absolutely possible to find your way forward.

00:00:35.360 If you're suffering, please know you are not alone. There's hope, and there's a path to feeling better.

00:00:41.800 Go to Daily Wire Plus now and start watching Dr. Jordan B. Peterson on depression and anxiety.

00:00:47.460 Let this be the first step towards the brighter future you deserve.

00:00:51.060 Welcome to the Jordan B. Peterson podcast, season four, episode 67. I'm Michaela Peterson.

00:01:00.380 Brief update, we just finished filming two courses with Dad in Nashville for Peterson Academy, a new project that will be unveiled soon.

00:01:11.000 It's going to be big.

00:01:11.860 Also, kind of exciting news, I have a solo show in Nashville on January 20th.

00:01:17.340 If any of you guys are around Nashville and have any interest in coming to see me, it's a Q&A.

00:01:24.060 Thought I'd throw it on here.

00:01:25.700 Just type in Michaela Peterson and Zanies, Z-A-N-I-E-S, and it'll pop up on Google.

00:01:32.680 There are still some tickets left.

00:01:34.360 There are also tickets left to Dad's show in a bunch of cities.

00:01:38.180 Most of them are sold out, which is crazy.

00:01:41.480 Next year is going to be amazingly fun.

00:01:44.720 This episode is part two of our investigation into the progress of the human race.

00:01:49.880 The mainstream media really only talks about how the world is in dire straits, how we're going in an irreversible direction, and how it's all our fault.

00:01:58.600 We explored this narrative in depth in season four of the podcast.

00:02:01.740 And we'd like to promote an alternative narrative, one where, in almost every direction you look, you find progress at a rate that, for most of history, would sound like sci-fi.

00:02:12.720 This episode, part two, once again heavily features Marion Tooby, Dad's guest on episode 14 of the current podcast season.

00:02:20.700 Marion is a senior fellow at Cato's Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, and co-authored the incredible book,

00:02:27.900 10 Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know.

00:02:31.760 Also featured in this episode are Michael Schellenberger, Dr. Seyfedean Amos, Matt Ridley, Steven Pinker, and Bjorn Lomborg.

00:02:39.740 Once again, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned.

00:02:42.460 There's still plenty of room for improvement in society, democracy, etc.

00:02:46.020 But overall, the data are undeniable.

00:02:49.420 In nearly every dimension of our lives, the rate of progress is unheard of.

00:02:53.520 I hope you enjoy this episode.

00:02:54.920 Before we dive in, I want to talk about investment portfolios.

00:02:59.940 I recently learned that top earners allocate around 20% of their wealth into just one asset class.

00:03:05.540 With inflation at an alarming 39-year high and with no signs of stopping,

00:03:10.760 on top of COVID variants affecting the stock market,

00:03:14.360 or people's fear of COVID variants affecting the stock market,

00:03:18.060 it's a pretty good time to rethink what you invest in.

00:03:20.620 One of the smartest ways to do that is to diversify your portfolio.

00:03:25.880 And one of the ways to do that is by investing in fine art.

00:03:28.700 This is a really, really cool idea I think most people can get behind.

00:03:32.080 I'm all for it.

00:03:33.240 Maybe you've never thought about it, but the 1% have been doing it for centuries.

00:03:36.840 Just to give some statistics on what the Wall Street Journal called one of the hottest markets today,

00:03:43.260 art outpaced the S&P by 174% from 1995 to 2020,

00:03:49.380 and it's projected to be worth $2.7 trillion by 2026.

00:03:54.700 A well-diversified art portfolio can help your investments ride out the volatility of stocks and bonds,

00:04:00.520 especially in times like this.

00:04:02.020 And you can do that with Masterworks.

00:04:04.260 Masterworks is the first and only fintech company that securitizes blue-chip artwork

00:04:10.140 from artists like Warhol, Banksy,

00:04:12.800 so anyone can invest in multi-million dollar paintings or art at an affordable entry point.

00:04:19.380 For example, the first painting Masterworks sold was Banksy's Mona Lisa for $1.5 million.

00:04:26.680 It eventually went on to get investors a 32% net annualized return.

00:04:32.140 Over 260,000 investors are already doing it,

00:04:36.100 and if you want to join them, visit masterworks.art.jbp today.

00:04:41.740 Again, that's masterworks.art.jbp.

00:04:45.580 See important disclaimers at masterworks.io.

00:04:48.980 I generated, partly generated a UN report,

00:05:10.260 contributed to a UN report about six or seven years ago

00:05:13.520 on sustainable development.

00:05:16.400 And I had the same sort of realization that you described,

00:05:19.460 was that on all these dimensions where we were supposed to be,

00:05:22.500 you know, careening towards catastrophe,

00:05:24.680 we were in fact doing better and better,

00:05:26.420 with the possible exception, I think, of oceanic management.

00:05:29.480 But we don't have to get into that.

00:05:31.360 I agree with that.

00:05:31.760 Yeah, yeah, it's like the oceanic management is a catastrophe,

00:05:34.620 but it could still be rectified.

00:05:36.940 And it seems to be a tragedy of the commons catastrophe.

00:05:41.780 And in any case, everywhere I looked at the actual statistics,

00:05:46.340 the evidence was that things were getting better fast,

00:05:49.860 and like really fast, fast in an unparalleled manner.

00:05:53.520 But what really got me was that the evidence,

00:05:57.960 as far as I can tell, is clear.

00:06:00.360 That as soon as you make people rich enough

00:06:02.820 so that they're not living hand to mouth,

00:06:05.040 then they start to become concerned with environmental degradation.

00:06:10.860 And so the biggest contributor to pollution,

00:06:13.960 you could make a case, a strong case,

00:06:15.620 the biggest contributor to pollution isn't wealth, but poverty.

00:06:19.500 And that if you raise people out of poverty,

00:06:21.500 then they start to manage their environments properly,

00:06:24.740 because they can afford to look at the long run.

00:06:26.700 And so you'd think that for the radical types

00:06:29.160 who are hyper-concerned, according to their own self-description,

00:06:32.920 with poverty and oppression, as well as environmental degradation,

00:06:36.900 that they would look at the facts and say,

00:06:39.360 oh my God, we can have our cake and eat it too.

00:06:41.420 The faster we make people rich,

00:06:43.660 the better off the planet is going to be.

00:06:47.400 For all of our recorded history,

00:06:49.900 let's say going back 4,000 BC,

00:06:53.300 but we can estimate even further back in time.

00:06:57.520 There it is, the hockey stick of human prosperity.

00:07:01.260 The line has flatlined.

00:07:03.620 It is estimated that prior to the Industrial Revolution

00:07:06.640 in the late 17 and early 1800s,

00:07:11.360 global economy grew by about 0.1% per year,

00:07:16.840 which is to say that to double your prosperity

00:07:20.220 would have taken thousands of years.

00:07:23.800 As late as 1900,

00:07:26.020 which is to say the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt,

00:07:29.680 who in Victoria was on the throne,

00:07:31.760 the globe produced roughly $3 trillion in output.

00:07:37.500 This is all inflation adjusted.

00:07:42.300 So $3 trillion in output, the entire globe.

00:07:45.300 In 2018, it was $121 trillion.

00:07:50.100 So from $3 trillion to $121 trillion

00:07:53.220 in a scope of 100 years adjusted for inflation.

00:07:57.340 And if the growth that we have experienced,

00:08:01.620 the growth rate that we have experienced

00:08:03.580 over the last 100 years continues into 2100,

00:08:07.660 the world will produce $600 trillion in output,

00:08:14.080 real inflation adjusted output.

00:08:16.680 Over the next 80 years,

00:08:18.620 the globe could produce six times more value

00:08:22.220 than it is currently producing

00:08:23.900 if we maintain the current economic growth rate.

00:08:26.580 And do you think that's an optimistic projection

00:08:29.340 or a conservative projection?

00:08:32.000 That's what leads us back

00:08:33.120 to the original point that we discussed.

00:08:34.960 It very much depends on economic policies

00:08:36.900 and political stability.

00:08:39.120 If you don't have civil wars around the world,

00:08:42.140 and government change hands

00:08:45.300 in a peaceful and predictable way,

00:08:48.360 then we should be okay

00:08:50.460 when it comes to political stability.

00:08:52.640 When it comes to economics,

00:08:53.880 we are seeing as surprising

00:08:56.640 and, to be quite frank,

00:08:59.380 well, to be frank,

00:09:00.380 surprising and almost inexplicable

00:09:02.880 renewed interest

00:09:06.280 in more restrictive economic policies

00:09:09.640 from socialism on the left

00:09:12.480 to hardcore protectionism on the right.

00:09:15.140 And if our economic growth rate

00:09:20.560 falls from 1.82%

00:09:24.720 that we have experienced over the last year

00:09:26.820 to 0.1%,

00:09:29.200 which we have experienced

00:09:30.520 over the previous 10,000 years,

00:09:32.900 then it will take us 6,000 years

00:09:35.040 to get from $100 trillion

00:09:36.940 to $200 trillion.

00:09:39.140 So the most remarkable thing

00:09:42.400 about this is exactly

00:09:44.540 the hockey stick shape.

00:09:46.300 It's, as you pointed out,

00:09:48.140 nothing at all happened

00:09:49.460 until the mid-1800s, essentially.

00:09:52.600 And then all of a sudden,

00:09:53.800 things improved so rapidly

00:09:55.480 that it's virtually incomprehensible.

00:09:57.580 It's a miracle.

00:09:58.800 It is the most important question

00:10:02.400 in economics,

00:10:03.480 what happens in the late 1700s,

00:10:06.960 early 1800s,

00:10:08.080 that produces that hockey stick effect.

00:10:10.700 And just to clarify,

00:10:12.400 there have been in human history

00:10:14.320 periods of economic efflorescence,

00:10:18.380 flourishing,

00:10:19.460 but they were usually restricted

00:10:22.020 to small parts of the world

00:10:23.780 and they were usually,

00:10:25.560 they usually petered out.

00:10:26.780 So, for example, Song China

00:10:28.780 has produced some remarkable

00:10:31.100 technological discoveries

00:10:33.320 and it appeared to be

00:10:35.440 at a time of relative plenty

00:10:37.360 compared to other countries

00:10:38.740 in the world.

00:10:39.600 But that petered out

00:10:41.020 when Song dynasty

00:10:42.920 was replaced by the Ming dynasty.

00:10:45.280 Similarly, the Roman Empire

00:10:46.960 appears to have been a place

00:10:48.320 that was largely at peace internally

00:10:50.560 and quite prosperous,

00:10:52.020 but that came to an end in 467

00:10:55.640 or whenever that happened.

00:10:56.780 when Rome fell.

00:10:59.040 So, there are these periods

00:11:00.320 that you can have prosperity.

00:11:03.440 Also, let's stay with Europe.

00:11:05.500 I mean, Europe has experienced

00:11:07.360 the greatest century

00:11:09.220 of peace and prosperity

00:11:11.040 between 1814,

00:11:12.760 the end of Napoleonic Wars,

00:11:14.480 and 1914,

00:11:15.620 the breakout of the First World War,

00:11:17.740 which slaughtered tens of millions

00:11:19.980 and destroyed a lot of wealth.

00:11:22.520 So, you know,

00:11:25.260 economic progress

00:11:26.680 can certainly take a knock

00:11:29.140 and it can take a time to recover.

00:11:31.560 But in order for it to recover,

00:11:33.200 you have to rediscover

00:11:34.060 the reasons why

00:11:34.980 you had high economic growth rates

00:11:37.140 in the first place.

00:11:38.780 So, okay.

00:11:39.620 So, the first lesson is

00:11:41.300 that something happened

00:11:42.380 in the last 150 years

00:11:44.760 that propelled

00:11:46.100 human productive

00:11:47.780 capacity

00:11:49.120 and distribution

00:11:50.160 globally

00:11:51.020 into the stratosphere.

00:11:53.480 And there's no sign

00:11:55.320 that that's slowing,

00:11:57.180 although we could disrupt it.

00:11:59.800 And we could disrupt it

00:12:01.020 because we don't exactly

00:12:02.240 understand why it happened

00:12:03.840 and we're not appreciative enough

00:12:05.800 of its miraculous nature

00:12:08.020 and the perhaps

00:12:09.780 fragile preconditions

00:12:11.060 for its continued existence.

00:12:13.180 Well, when I said

00:12:14.220 that it's the biggest question

00:12:15.220 in economics,

00:12:16.200 I'm not suggesting

00:12:17.780 that there aren't

00:12:18.820 theories

00:12:19.760 of why it happened.

00:12:21.520 The theory

00:12:22.200 that I espoused

00:12:24.080 and the theory

00:12:25.380 that has convinced me

00:12:26.500 is that over hundreds of years

00:12:28.560 in Western Europe

00:12:31.000 and in North America

00:12:32.280 and then later

00:12:33.620 in other parts of the world,

00:12:35.340 our economic

00:12:36.080 and political institutions

00:12:37.320 have grown more inclusive,

00:12:39.420 open,

00:12:40.060 or to use a political word,

00:12:42.020 liberal.

00:12:42.700 Now, I'm using liberal

00:12:43.780 in its European sense,

00:12:45.560 not liberal

00:12:46.340 in the current American sense.

00:12:48.960 And what that meant

00:12:50.220 was that

00:12:51.000 you no longer needed

00:12:52.760 a permission

00:12:53.560 from the king

00:12:54.320 in order to open a shop

00:12:55.980 or import a bag of wool

00:12:57.660 from another country.

00:12:59.200 So there's an autonomy,

00:13:00.680 there's an element

00:13:01.400 of autonomy,

00:13:02.440 but there's also

00:13:03.500 an element of generosity

00:13:04.840 that autonomy leads to

00:13:07.240 increased productivity,

00:13:08.320 but the consequences

00:13:09.420 of the production

00:13:10.240 are also being shared

00:13:11.280 rather than hoarded.

00:13:13.500 They're being distributed

00:13:14.360 reasonably well.

00:13:17.440 Yes,

00:13:18.180 but the key here

00:13:19.700 was I think

00:13:20.620 that

00:13:21.240 monarchies,

00:13:23.300 governments,

00:13:24.760 have become

00:13:25.480 more

00:13:28.200 responsible

00:13:30.060 to their people,

00:13:31.600 more accountable

00:13:32.220 to their people,

00:13:33.040 and they started

00:13:34.160 allowing a much

00:13:35.420 greater level

00:13:36.560 of economic freedom.

00:13:38.220 Now, the reason

00:13:38.720 why that happened

00:13:39.620 is a very interesting one.

00:13:41.200 Once again,

00:13:41.640 I'm going to tell you

00:13:42.320 a theory that I

00:13:43.360 espouse

00:13:45.380 and theory

00:13:46.220 that convinced me.

00:13:47.940 Other people

00:13:48.360 may have other ideas.

00:13:49.800 But basically,

00:13:50.880 what has happened

00:13:51.560 is that unlike

00:13:52.340 in other parts

00:13:53.260 of the world,

00:13:53.920 such as the Ottoman Empire

00:13:55.160 and such as China,

00:13:57.580 Europe never had

00:13:59.000 an internal empire.

00:14:02.140 One dynasty

00:14:03.040 was never able

00:14:04.280 to conquer

00:14:05.060 different European states

00:14:07.740 into the creation

00:14:08.940 of one European

00:14:10.040 mega empire.

00:14:12.300 And because

00:14:13.040 governing elites

00:14:14.300 of different states,

00:14:15.880 France,

00:14:17.100 Germany,

00:14:18.720 Spain,

00:14:19.780 Portugal,

00:14:20.600 Holland,

00:14:21.520 Belgium,

00:14:22.000 whatever,

00:14:22.700 because they wanted

00:14:23.760 to survive,

00:14:24.640 because they didn't

00:14:25.420 want to be

00:14:26.000 vassals

00:14:27.160 of another monarch,

00:14:28.440 because they wanted

00:14:29.440 to remain independent,

00:14:31.180 they realized

00:14:32.160 that they needed

00:14:33.640 to generate

00:14:34.440 a lot of economic

00:14:35.420 growth internally.

00:14:36.920 And they realized

00:14:37.980 that the only way

00:14:38.960 that they could

00:14:39.380 generate economic growth

00:14:40.660 was through

00:14:41.740 technological innovation.

00:14:44.020 And technological

00:14:45.180 innovation,

00:14:45.720 you can only get

00:14:46.680 in societies

00:14:48.000 which allow people

00:14:49.940 a greater degree,

00:14:51.280 a relatively great degree

00:14:52.400 of intellectual freedom.

00:14:55.620 And so countries

00:14:56.460 which felt

00:14:57.140 at most threatened

00:14:58.360 such as Holland,

00:14:59.740 because the French

00:15:00.440 were always trying

00:15:01.300 to take them over,

00:15:03.140 would welcome

00:15:03.960 into their cities

00:15:05.260 and into the country

00:15:08.080 thinkers

00:15:10.900 from all over the world,

00:15:12.900 free thinkers

00:15:13.440 from all over Europe

00:15:14.440 who established

00:15:15.540 themselves there,

00:15:16.700 produced new ideas,

00:15:17.920 produced new technologies,

00:15:19.300 and Holland could defend

00:15:20.360 itself against the predation

00:15:22.400 of other countries.

00:15:23.360 England was another example

00:15:24.700 of how this happened.

00:15:27.920 So it is through

00:15:29.240 geopolitical competition,

00:15:31.320 in other words,

00:15:32.140 the dismemberment

00:15:34.020 of European countries

00:15:35.740 that you get

00:15:39.080 greater appreciation

00:15:41.480 of the need for freedom,

00:15:43.020 which then leads

00:15:43.840 to innovation,

00:15:44.700 which then leads

00:15:45.400 to generation

00:15:45.940 of more money,

00:15:47.160 which then can keep

00:15:48.180 your country independent

00:15:49.280 and from being swallowed

00:15:50.880 by a foreign conqueror.

00:15:56.240 But if you want

00:15:57.760 to reduce it

00:15:58.260 to one sentence,

00:15:59.080 it would be

00:15:59.680 political and economic

00:16:01.820 institutions became

00:16:02.760 more open,

00:16:03.660 inclusive,

00:16:04.300 and liberal.

00:16:05.040 Whether you were a Jew

00:16:06.020 or whether you were

00:16:07.160 a Muslim

00:16:07.680 or a Christian

00:16:08.560 or a Catholic,

00:16:10.220 you could function

00:16:11.260 within the Amsterdam

00:16:12.520 Stock Exchange

00:16:13.400 and nobody,

00:16:16.100 and you were free

00:16:17.040 from prosecution.

00:16:17.740 All right,

00:16:20.820 let's go to

00:16:21.540 the next trend,

00:16:23.160 the end of poverty.

00:16:26.960 And that's this graph.

00:16:34.900 Before the Industrial Revolution,

00:16:37.380 or rather,

00:16:37.760 let's start 12,000 years ago

00:16:39.140 when humanity

00:16:39.920 discovers agriculture,

00:16:41.840 between 12,000 years ago

00:16:44.440 and roughly 200 years ago,

00:16:46.180 pretty much everybody

00:16:47.420 in the world

00:16:48.120 was a farmer

00:16:50.080 or a farm laborer.

00:16:52.280 As late as 1800,

00:16:53.800 roughly nine

00:16:54.460 out of 10 people

00:16:55.400 around the world

00:16:56.480 were involved

00:16:57.880 in agriculture.

00:16:58.680 They were farmers

00:16:59.360 and they were very poor.

00:17:02.020 And then

00:17:02.500 the other 10%

00:17:04.880 were basically

00:17:05.760 the nobility,

00:17:06.640 the clergy

00:17:07.060 and the military.

00:17:08.400 But 90%

00:17:09.640 of humanity

00:17:10.240 were either

00:17:10.980 remained hunter-gatherers

00:17:13.060 or they were farmers

00:17:13.980 or farm laborers.

00:17:14.940 And then

00:17:16.280 with the Industrial Revolution,

00:17:18.440 you start factoring

00:17:19.380 opening up

00:17:20.000 all over the Western world

00:17:21.180 and people realize

00:17:22.500 that they can make more money

00:17:23.440 in the cities

00:17:23.940 working in factories.

00:17:25.000 So they start

00:17:25.560 leaving

00:17:26.000 the rural areas

00:17:29.300 and moving

00:17:29.760 into urban areas,

00:17:31.400 earning more money.

00:17:32.880 And eventually,

00:17:33.800 the agricultural population

00:17:34.940 in the United States,

00:17:36.100 for example,

00:17:36.720 declines

00:17:37.240 from 40%

00:17:38.300 in 1900,

00:17:39.100 well,

00:17:40.260 from 90%

00:17:40.980 in 1800

00:17:41.560 to 40%

00:17:42.720 in 1900

00:17:45.220 to 2%

00:17:46.140 today.

00:17:47.240 Today,

00:17:47.620 only 2%

00:17:48.300 of American workers

00:17:49.120 work in agriculture.

00:17:50.060 The rest of them

00:17:50.740 works

00:17:51.640 in

00:17:52.040 services industry,

00:17:58.220 tourism,

00:17:58.700 computing,

00:18:00.040 and whatever.

00:18:00.900 But this is a process

00:18:02.300 through which

00:18:02.860 Americans stopped

00:18:03.820 being very poor

00:18:05.120 and became

00:18:05.820 very rich.

00:18:06.740 And this process

00:18:07.340 is repeating

00:18:07.940 all around the world.

00:18:10.020 The world is industrializing,

00:18:11.320 the world is becoming

00:18:12.000 more service-oriented,

00:18:13.420 and fewer and fewer

00:18:14.300 people around the world

00:18:15.340 work in agriculture,

00:18:16.780 even though

00:18:17.420 our agricultural output

00:18:19.140 is higher

00:18:20.740 than ever before.

00:18:21.820 And we'll get

00:18:22.300 to that trend, too.

00:18:23.260 Just to

00:18:23.940 highlight

00:18:25.860 the meaning

00:18:26.740 of this graph.

00:18:27.740 So,

00:18:28.340 in 1830,

00:18:29.680 95%

00:18:30.660 of the global

00:18:31.480 population

00:18:32.260 was in

00:18:33.520 absolute poverty.

00:18:34.280 That was a much

00:18:35.260 smaller number

00:18:35.980 of people

00:18:36.520 as well.

00:18:37.980 And by

00:18:38.600 the year

00:18:39.300 2015,

00:18:41.040 roughly speaking,

00:18:42.000 we're down

00:18:42.320 to 10%.

00:18:43.340 It's stunning.

00:18:44.840 And the change

00:18:45.740 from 1990

00:18:46.580 to 2010

00:18:47.900 is approximately

00:18:49.540 40%

00:18:50.960 to approximately

00:18:51.960 10.

00:18:55.420 That's right.

00:18:56.240 And you see

00:18:56.900 what partly,

00:18:57.560 I think what happened,

00:18:58.420 you tell me if you think

00:18:59.280 this is right or wrong,

00:19:00.220 but there's been

00:19:01.500 a real acceleration

00:19:02.300 in the decline

00:19:03.120 of absolute poverty.

00:19:04.040 Let's say since 1990

00:19:05.320 and not coincidentally,

00:19:07.140 it was at approximately

00:19:08.160 that time

00:19:08.840 that the Soviet Union

00:19:09.840 collapsed.

00:19:10.600 And so,

00:19:11.000 one of the major

00:19:11.840 competitive systems

00:19:13.800 whose advantages

00:19:15.780 were touted

00:19:16.440 in the developing

00:19:17.080 countries,

00:19:17.600 for example,

00:19:18.080 was no longer

00:19:18.740 a major player.

00:19:19.660 And it was

00:19:19.920 a little bit

00:19:20.780 after that

00:19:21.280 that China

00:19:21.880 started to

00:19:23.040 liberalize

00:19:23.780 at least economically,

00:19:25.080 even though it really

00:19:25.760 hasn't done it

00:19:26.360 politically.

00:19:27.520 And so,

00:19:28.920 I think that's

00:19:29.860 at least partly

00:19:30.660 responsible

00:19:31.220 for the acceleration

00:19:32.240 and the reduction

00:19:32.940 of absolute poverty.

00:19:35.440 The decline

00:19:36.500 in socialism,

00:19:38.720 communism,

00:19:39.880 basically the

00:19:41.020 disappearance

00:19:42.180 of socialism,

00:19:43.220 at least for a little

00:19:43.920 bit of time,

00:19:44.900 as an alternative

00:19:46.100 and widely accepted

00:19:47.500 way to riches,

00:19:49.620 meant that

00:19:50.880 developing countries

00:19:52.140 changed their

00:19:52.880 developing strategies

00:19:53.860 beginning in the

00:19:54.620 1980s.

00:19:55.520 they started

00:19:56.300 opening up

00:19:56.980 more.

00:19:57.980 Instead of

00:19:58.720 seeing

00:19:59.000 multinational

00:19:59.540 corporations

00:20:00.140 as parasites

00:20:01.260 and enemies,

00:20:02.060 they started

00:20:02.480 welcoming them

00:20:03.180 into their

00:20:03.660 own countries.

00:20:04.940 Instead of

00:20:05.800 rejecting

00:20:06.640 foreign direct

00:20:07.380 investment,

00:20:07.980 they started

00:20:08.440 opening up

00:20:09.080 to foreign

00:20:09.520 direct

00:20:09.840 investment.

00:20:10.560 So,

00:20:11.120 at a time

00:20:11.700 when globalization

00:20:12.340 starts,

00:20:13.000 really,

00:20:13.300 1980 or so,

00:20:15.140 at the time

00:20:15.740 of when

00:20:16.420 Ronald Reagan

00:20:16.880 becomes president

00:20:17.620 of the United

00:20:18.120 States,

00:20:18.600 40% of the

00:20:19.400 world live

00:20:19.900 in absolute

00:20:20.420 poverty.

00:20:21.660 That declines

00:20:22.700 to about 30%

00:20:23.740 by the new

00:20:24.760 millennium.

00:20:25.520 And from

00:20:26.140 the new

00:20:26.480 millennium

00:20:27.000 to today,

00:20:28.940 20 years,

00:20:29.980 it declines

00:20:30.460 from 30%

00:20:31.280 to less

00:20:31.720 than 10%.

00:20:32.380 So,

00:20:32.680 you're absolutely

00:20:33.160 right.

00:20:33.660 The decline

00:20:34.300 in poverty

00:20:34.980 has accelerated

00:20:36.640 over the last

00:20:37.620 20 years

00:20:38.140 from 30%

00:20:39.080 to less

00:20:41.440 than 10%.

00:20:42.460 It's stunning.

00:20:44.360 It's absolutely

00:20:44.920 stunning.

00:20:45.600 It's absolutely

00:20:46.160 unbelievable

00:20:46.760 that that can

00:20:47.780 be the case.

00:20:48.800 It is the

00:20:49.300 fastest reduction

00:20:50.200 in global

00:20:51.300 poverty,

00:20:52.780 primarily

00:20:53.320 because

00:20:54.260 many

00:20:55.120 poor

00:20:55.640 and

00:20:55.860 previously

00:20:56.240 socialist

00:20:56.660 countries

00:20:57.060 have changed

00:20:57.840 their

00:20:58.580 understanding

00:20:59.140 of economics

00:20:59.740 and way

00:21:00.140 to prosperity.

00:21:01.620 I want to

00:21:02.500 harass you

00:21:03.540 again about

00:21:04.000 something.

00:21:04.500 So,

00:21:04.660 you were

00:21:04.860 talking about

00:21:05.280 socialism

00:21:05.720 and its

00:21:06.140 decline.

00:21:06.540 so Canada

00:21:11.700 has many

00:21:13.000 democratic

00:21:13.500 socialist

00:21:14.320 policies.

00:21:16.240 Norway,

00:21:16.780 which in

00:21:17.740 your book

00:21:18.220 ranks highest

00:21:19.680 in terms of

00:21:20.260 the human

00:21:20.520 development

00:21:20.900 index,

00:21:21.400 I believe

00:21:21.720 that's the

00:21:22.520 case.

00:21:23.600 The Scandinavian

00:21:24.700 countries,

00:21:25.200 of course,

00:21:25.460 are famous

00:21:25.820 for functional

00:21:26.980 democratic

00:21:27.480 socialism.

00:21:27.920 and so

00:21:28.380 what do

00:21:30.640 you have

00:21:31.660 to say

00:21:32.020 about that?

00:21:32.880 Forget about

00:21:33.540 communism and

00:21:34.240 the hardcore

00:21:34.720 communist

00:21:35.340 Soviet-pushed

00:21:36.600 Maoist

00:21:37.040 doctrines that

00:21:38.340 anyone with

00:21:39.400 any sense

00:21:40.200 is going to

00:21:40.860 regard in

00:21:41.940 the light of

00:21:42.340 what happened

00:21:42.780 historically as

00:21:43.500 absolutely

00:21:44.100 counterproductive.

00:21:45.300 Anyone who

00:21:45.820 supports Maoist

00:21:47.020 doctrines or

00:21:47.640 Soviet doctrines

00:21:48.500 is reprehensible

00:21:50.040 in my...

00:21:50.860 They're so

00:21:51.340 ignorant or

00:21:52.240 malevolent in

00:21:53.280 some sense that

00:21:53.960 it's reprehensible.

00:21:54.660 It gets more

00:21:55.940 complicated,

00:21:56.640 I would say,

00:21:57.320 when you're

00:21:57.660 talking about

00:21:58.380 the range of

00:22:01.020 redistributive

00:22:02.220 policies that

00:22:04.780 characterize

00:22:05.740 Northern Europe

00:22:07.900 and Central

00:22:08.400 Europe and

00:22:08.900 Canada and

00:22:09.440 the United

00:22:09.760 States.

00:22:10.220 There's a

00:22:10.600 wide range

00:22:11.380 of theories,

00:22:15.940 preferences for

00:22:16.920 government

00:22:17.720 intervention and

00:22:18.660 for socialists,

00:22:19.760 democratic

00:22:20.140 socialist

00:22:20.560 policies.

00:22:21.340 And so

00:22:21.520 how much

00:22:24.700 of a range

00:22:26.020 do you

00:22:26.320 think there

00:22:26.680 is where

00:22:28.900 the left

00:22:32.680 and the

00:22:32.980 right are

00:22:33.800 equally

00:22:34.180 functional but

00:22:34.900 emphasize

00:22:35.680 different things?

00:22:36.660 That might be

00:22:37.420 the way of

00:22:37.760 thinking about

00:22:38.240 it.

00:22:38.980 Right.

00:22:39.640 You are

00:22:40.080 certainly

00:22:40.340 correct on

00:22:41.660 China, which

00:22:42.420 has abandoned

00:22:43.940 hardcore

00:22:44.460 communism in

00:22:45.120 the late

00:22:45.340 1970s.

00:22:46.340 But India

00:22:46.960 was never

00:22:47.400 communist,

00:22:48.000 but even

00:22:48.380 they reformed

00:22:49.260 in the early

00:22:49.700 1990s and

00:22:51.300 embraced a

00:22:52.080 much freer

00:22:53.040 economic model

00:22:53.760 and that's

00:22:54.360 1.2

00:22:54.920 billion people.

00:22:55.680 So that

00:22:55.900 also explains

00:22:56.700 why the

00:22:57.140 global poverty

00:22:58.220 rate has

00:22:59.660 declined.

00:23:00.660 Now, you're

00:23:02.260 raising a very

00:23:02.740 important point

00:23:03.500 in that there

00:23:03.980 is a difference

00:23:04.720 between socialism,

00:23:06.760 which is

00:23:07.240 government

00:23:08.640 ownership of

00:23:09.340 the means of

00:23:09.780 production,

00:23:10.300 factories and

00:23:10.920 whatever,

00:23:11.780 and social

00:23:12.720 democracy in

00:23:14.300 Europe, in

00:23:15.000 places like

00:23:15.560 Denmark,

00:23:16.400 Norway,

00:23:18.020 Sweden,

00:23:19.300 and even

00:23:20.400 perhaps

00:23:20.840 Canada.

00:23:21.960 But here's

00:23:22.380 the interesting

00:23:22.820 thing.

00:23:24.020 All of these

00:23:24.580 countries come

00:23:25.420 at the very

00:23:25.940 top of the

00:23:26.700 Economic Freedom

00:23:27.340 of the World

00:23:27.860 Report, which

00:23:28.520 is published by

00:23:29.280 the Fraser

00:23:29.680 Institute in

00:23:30.520 Canada.

00:23:31.180 You may be

00:23:31.560 familiar with

00:23:32.240 them.

00:23:32.960 So it is

00:23:33.440 actually possible

00:23:34.140 to measure

00:23:34.900 economic freedom

00:23:36.140 in different

00:23:36.540 countries, and

00:23:37.480 Fraser has been

00:23:38.140 doing so since

00:23:38.940 the early

00:23:39.480 1970s.

00:23:41.400 And all

00:23:42.120 of these

00:23:42.340 countries,

00:23:43.760 all these

00:23:44.140 social democratic

00:23:44.680 countries,

00:23:45.400 actually score

00:23:46.620 very well.

00:23:47.120 here's the

00:23:47.680 reason why.

00:23:48.760 First of

00:23:49.200 all, they

00:23:50.140 have very

00:23:51.380 flexible labor

00:23:53.380 markets.

00:23:54.640 Second, they

00:23:55.600 have very...

00:23:56.060 Describe, define

00:23:56.840 that, define

00:23:57.460 that, so

00:23:58.040 everyone

00:23:58.340 understands.

00:23:58.800 Meaning the

00:23:59.920 ability of

00:24:00.680 firing and

00:24:01.620 hiring people

00:24:02.620 is lightly

00:24:03.980 regulated, so

00:24:05.520 that people can

00:24:06.240 move from

00:24:06.840 industries and

00:24:07.720 occupations, which

00:24:08.720 are maybe

00:24:09.900 unproductive,

00:24:11.020 or which are

00:24:13.160 unproductive,

00:24:14.020 into wherever

00:24:15.280 there is a

00:24:17.660 new company

00:24:19.000 that's

00:24:19.360 opening, you

00:24:20.680 don't suffer

00:24:21.380 consequences.

00:24:21.780 Right, so

00:24:22.160 things are

00:24:22.540 allowed to

00:24:23.040 die and be

00:24:23.700 born.

00:24:24.620 Precisely.

00:24:25.740 The second

00:24:26.180 reason why

00:24:26.980 they are

00:24:27.600 scoring very

00:24:28.240 high on the

00:24:28.840 economic freedom

00:24:29.420 of the world

00:24:29.900 report is

00:24:30.880 because they

00:24:31.320 are open to

00:24:31.960 foreign trade.

00:24:33.180 They are

00:24:33.400 actually more

00:24:34.420 open to

00:24:34.960 foreign trade

00:24:35.540 than the

00:24:35.820 United States,

00:24:36.500 which is

00:24:36.780 supposed to

00:24:37.220 be a

00:24:37.500 paragon of

00:24:38.140 capitals,

00:24:38.780 although

00:24:38.980 obviously

00:24:39.340 the United

00:24:39.680 States isn't,

00:24:40.640 but they are

00:24:41.020 very free trade

00:24:41.820 oriented.

00:24:43.000 And also,

00:24:43.980 if you look

00:24:44.420 at their tax

00:24:45.040 structure,

00:24:45.600 what you

00:24:45.820 realize is that

00:24:46.440 they actually

00:24:47.180 have very

00:24:47.860 low corporate

00:24:49.040 tax rates,

00:24:50.520 as opposed to

00:24:52.160 say the

00:24:52.740 United States,

00:24:53.400 which is one

00:24:53.840 of the highest

00:24:54.360 corporate tax

00:24:55.060 rates in the

00:24:55.560 world.

00:24:56.360 So what the

00:24:56.820 Scandinavians and

00:24:57.900 the Social

00:24:58.720 Democrats have

00:24:59.400 discovered is

00:25:00.220 roughly speaking

00:25:01.280 the following.

00:25:03.120 Let's keep

00:25:03.960 the economy

00:25:04.720 free, let's

00:25:06.600 try to generate

00:25:07.500 as much revenue

00:25:08.760 through economic

00:25:09.640 growth, and

00:25:10.840 then tax that,

00:25:12.580 do not tax the

00:25:13.680 productivity of

00:25:14.560 the worker and

00:25:15.460 of the company

00:25:16.140 in terms of

00:25:17.660 corporate tax

00:25:19.220 rates, or

00:25:20.940 rather, let's

00:25:22.480 try to have an

00:25:26.600 open economy and

00:25:27.480 generate economic

00:25:28.240 growth by

00:25:29.080 producing and

00:25:31.040 by being a

00:25:31.760 welcoming area

00:25:33.460 for new

00:25:35.060 businesses to

00:25:35.740 open.

00:25:39.640 Making poor

00:25:40.920 people richer is

00:25:42.720 an extremely

00:25:43.280 intelligent

00:25:43.920 environmental

00:25:44.540 move, for a

00:25:46.400 variety of

00:25:46.860 reasons.

00:25:47.400 I mean, the

00:25:47.900 first is perhaps

00:25:48.980 that once you

00:25:49.700 get people above

00:25:50.920 a certain level

00:25:51.920 of income, they

00:25:53.540 can start buying

00:25:54.480 fuels that are

00:25:55.220 cleaner than the

00:25:56.040 fuels they use

00:25:57.400 now, dung and

00:25:59.800 wood and that

00:26:00.540 kind of thing.

00:26:02.360 But also that as

00:26:03.760 people move up the

00:26:04.920 economic hierarchy,

00:26:06.460 they have time to

00:26:07.940 be concerned about

00:26:08.960 things that are

00:26:09.560 more abstract,

00:26:10.420 like what the

00:26:11.940 environment is

00:26:12.600 going to be like

00:26:13.160 for their

00:26:13.520 children, which

00:26:14.720 they're not going

00:26:15.340 to be, or when

00:26:16.580 they go on

00:26:17.120 holiday, for

00:26:17.860 example, or even

00:26:19.260 where they live as

00:26:20.420 they have some

00:26:21.300 options to choose

00:26:22.420 where to live.

00:26:23.900 And so it

00:26:25.300 could be, you

00:26:27.040 know, we often

00:26:29.140 construe the

00:26:30.240 relationship between

00:26:31.060 the economy and

00:26:32.080 the environment as

00:26:33.060 a zero-sum game,

00:26:34.340 right?

00:26:34.560 And the

00:26:35.660 biologists in

00:26:36.400 particular, broadly

00:26:37.440 speaking, the

00:26:38.400 political biologists

00:26:39.260 have a proclivity

00:26:40.080 to do that, that

00:26:41.680 as the economy

00:26:42.840 grows, we

00:26:43.840 sacrifice the

00:26:44.620 environment to

00:26:45.320 it.

00:26:45.760 But it could be

00:26:46.620 the case that

00:26:47.980 we get the

00:26:49.780 best environmental

00:26:50.660 bang for the buck

00:26:51.560 by making the

00:26:53.120 poor rich as

00:26:54.140 fast as we

00:26:54.720 possibly can

00:26:55.500 around the

00:26:56.000 world.

00:26:57.100 And if we

00:26:57.780 make poor

00:26:58.300 economic decisions

00:26:59.320 because we're

00:27:00.360 catastrophizing a

00:27:01.580 certain kind of

00:27:02.200 environmental calamity,

00:27:03.420 we're inviting

00:27:04.140 we're actually

00:27:06.020 increasing the

00:27:06.860 risk of

00:27:07.540 environmental

00:27:08.260 degradation in

00:27:09.360 the medium and

00:27:10.420 the long term.

00:27:11.380 Do you think

00:27:11.880 that's reasonable?

00:27:14.240 Yes, absolutely

00:27:15.200 so, and in a

00:27:16.040 number of

00:27:16.500 different ways.

00:27:17.100 So I think

00:27:18.180 it's funny how

00:27:19.220 we don't

00:27:20.080 recognize how

00:27:21.180 terrible it is

00:27:22.240 to be poor.

00:27:23.660 If you're poor,

00:27:24.840 you're vulnerable

00:27:25.600 in all kinds of

00:27:26.840 ways.

00:27:27.280 You're very

00:27:27.760 clearly incredibly

00:27:29.320 vulnerable to

00:27:30.420 global warming.

00:27:31.520 So, you know,

00:27:32.060 if you remember

00:27:33.440 there was a big

00:27:33.960 hurricane hitting

00:27:34.720 Haiyan, the

00:27:36.820 Philippines, and

00:27:37.860 back in 2013, it

00:27:39.280 was made a big

00:27:39.900 deal out of as

00:27:41.500 global warming.

00:27:42.300 It hit this

00:27:43.240 very, very poor

00:27:44.380 city who, you

00:27:45.980 know, where most

00:27:46.680 of their city

00:27:47.260 citizens live on

00:27:49.260 the corrugated

00:27:49.860 roof.

00:27:50.420 Not surprisingly,

00:27:51.560 having a hurricane

00:27:52.560 five is terrible

00:27:54.360 when you live on

00:27:55.220 their corrugated

00:27:55.900 roof.

00:27:56.520 The best way to

00:27:57.820 help these people

00:27:58.480 obviously would be

00:27:59.320 to lift them out

00:28:00.080 of poverty.

00:28:00.500 What actually is,

00:28:01.580 we can see back

00:28:02.740 in the early

00:28:04.240 part of last

00:28:05.140 century, a

00:28:05.840 similar hurricane

00:28:06.680 hit and eradicate

00:28:08.420 about half the

00:28:09.260 city.

00:28:09.920 This time it was

00:28:10.960 only about a

00:28:12.440 twentieth of the

00:28:13.260 city.

00:28:13.680 So much, much

00:28:14.640 better because the

00:28:15.700 city was much

00:28:16.300 richer.

00:28:17.000 But if we focused

00:28:18.000 on making them

00:28:18.700 even richer,

00:28:19.640 they would be

00:28:20.300 much better off

00:28:21.120 just simply from

00:28:22.060 the point of view

00:28:23.380 of being more

00:28:24.500 protected from

00:28:25.440 hurricanes.

00:28:26.640 So, you know,

00:28:27.480 fundamentally there's

00:28:28.400 something weird

00:28:29.020 about us saying,

00:28:30.300 oh, those poor

00:28:30.780 people in the

00:28:31.840 Philippines, we

00:28:32.960 should help them

00:28:33.680 by not driving

00:28:34.760 our car today.

00:28:36.100 What?

00:28:36.680 No, you should

00:28:37.380 help them by

00:28:38.020 becoming rich,

00:28:39.100 becoming part of

00:28:39.940 the integrated

00:28:40.460 global economy,

00:28:41.900 making sure that

00:28:42.620 their kids would

00:28:43.280 be better educated,

00:28:45.440 not die from

00:28:46.180 easily curable

00:28:46.800 infectious diseases

00:28:47.680 and so on.

00:28:48.600 So not only would

00:28:49.600 it be better

00:28:50.140 environmentally,

00:28:51.340 but it would

00:28:51.700 obviously also be

00:28:52.620 better for them

00:28:53.260 educationally,

00:28:54.300 for them health

00:28:55.240 wise and all

00:28:56.380 these other things.

00:28:57.120 It would simply

00:28:58.240 generate much,

00:28:59.300 much better lives

00:29:00.680 in the Philippines.

00:29:03.080 But as you also

00:29:04.280 pointed out,

00:29:05.240 as you get richer,

00:29:06.580 you're actually

00:29:07.280 cleaner in almost

00:29:08.520 all ways.

00:29:09.140 You don't use

00:29:09.960 dung and cardboard

00:29:10.760 and wood to cook

00:29:12.720 inside, but also

00:29:14.400 you stop cutting

00:29:15.940 down forests.

00:29:17.100 You move to the

00:29:17.780 city instead.

00:29:18.840 You become a web

00:29:19.840 designer or something

00:29:20.700 else that's very,

00:29:21.740 very little related

00:29:22.660 to actually clearing

00:29:24.180 out forest land.

00:29:26.140 You do a lot

00:29:27.420 of things in

00:29:28.220 cities that are

00:29:29.140 much more

00:29:29.700 ecologically

00:29:30.360 sustainable.

00:29:31.500 And of course,

00:29:31.880 in the long run,

00:29:32.700 you will actually

00:29:33.560 also say,

00:29:34.400 I would like to

00:29:35.040 make sure that

00:29:35.580 we have better

00:29:36.200 regulations,

00:29:36.840 so we have less

00:29:38.000 air pollution,

00:29:38.700 so we have many

00:29:39.480 of the other

00:29:39.860 things that drive

00:29:41.000 environmental benefits.

00:29:42.540 So absolutely,

00:29:44.200 by getting people

00:29:45.200 out of poverty,

00:29:46.060 we fix most

00:29:47.420 environmental problems.

00:29:49.040 To swallow what

00:29:50.100 you just said

00:29:50.840 and to believe it,

00:29:52.180 there's a set of

00:29:53.300 beliefs that you

00:29:53.860 have to have

00:29:54.760 already in place.

00:29:56.400 You have to

00:29:56.840 believe that the

00:29:57.520 current economic

00:29:58.340 system isn't

00:29:59.640 fatally flawed and

00:30:01.340 basically works,

00:30:02.360 or at least works

00:30:03.320 better than any

00:30:04.340 hypothetical alternatives

00:30:06.020 that have been

00:30:06.800 tried or that we

00:30:07.580 can dream up.

00:30:08.640 So it basically

00:30:09.320 works, and works

00:30:10.200 means as it runs,

00:30:12.000 it tends to lift

00:30:12.800 people out of

00:30:13.420 absolute poverty.

00:30:14.700 There's still a

00:30:15.540 maintenance of

00:30:17.440 relative poverty,

00:30:18.980 but absolute poverty

00:30:19.960 tends to disappear,

00:30:20.960 and there seems to

00:30:21.800 be really good

00:30:22.320 evidence for that,

00:30:23.180 especially across,

00:30:24.200 well, since the

00:30:25.060 Industrial Revolution,

00:30:26.120 but it's really

00:30:26.620 taken off in the

00:30:27.400 last 30 years,

00:30:28.480 maybe non-coincidentally

00:30:30.300 with the demise of

00:30:31.360 communism, which was

00:30:33.140 a competing economic

00:30:36.140 theory, and produced

00:30:38.200 all sorts of bad

00:30:38.960 economic decisions.

00:30:40.080 In any case, you have

00:30:41.080 to buy the hypothesis

00:30:42.180 that the current

00:30:43.320 system works, and

00:30:44.320 that extending it is

00:30:45.800 going to be better,

00:30:47.000 and so you don't get

00:30:47.760 to adopt a stance

00:30:52.860 of revolutionary

00:30:53.560 criticism of the

00:30:55.340 Western capitalist

00:30:56.400 hierarchy.

00:30:58.180 So that's a big

00:30:58.820 sacrifice if your

00:31:00.780 thinking is oriented

00:31:02.080 in that direction.

00:31:03.320 Now, I don't know

00:31:04.760 really what to make

00:31:05.500 of that, because

00:31:06.180 you'd think the

00:31:08.620 evidence that the

00:31:10.600 poor had been

00:31:11.740 lifted out of

00:31:12.420 poverty at an

00:31:13.180 unbelievable, like an

00:31:14.480 astonishing rate since

00:31:15.740 the year 2000, not

00:31:17.300 just in China, but

00:31:18.320 all over the world,

00:31:20.400 would be essentially

00:31:22.920 irrefutable evidence

00:31:24.220 that the current

00:31:25.340 system works, and

00:31:27.940 then if you look at

00:31:28.680 China after they

00:31:30.080 adopted free market

00:31:31.240 policies compared to

00:31:32.820 before they adopted

00:31:33.700 free market policies,

00:31:34.640 there's absolutely no

00:31:35.640 comparison with regard

00:31:36.740 to growth, and so

00:31:38.420 it isn't obvious to

00:31:40.380 me how, if you were

00:31:42.180 truly concerned with

00:31:43.080 the poor, you'd be

00:31:43.920 able to deny the

00:31:47.860 sorts of propositions

00:31:48.960 that you put

00:31:49.560 forward, I don't

00:31:50.960 understand that.

00:31:52.080 Maybe it's partly

00:31:53.020 because people just

00:31:53.900 don't know how much

00:31:56.780 better things have

00:31:57.520 got in the last 20

00:31:58.560 years and why, you

00:31:59.500 know, because it has

00:32:01.100 been difficult news to

00:32:02.220 bring forward, and

00:32:03.000 it's difficult to

00:32:04.320 market.

00:32:06.320 If I can just, yes,

00:32:08.160 yes, so one of the

00:32:10.300 things I think people

00:32:11.140 don't recognize, if

00:32:12.100 you look at a

00:32:13.600 graph over the last

00:32:14.560 200 years, 200

00:32:16.140 years ago, almost

00:32:17.000 everyone in the

00:32:17.760 world were absolutely

00:32:18.880 poor in the sense

00:32:20.440 of less than a

00:32:21.500 dollar a day.

00:32:22.760 Yeah, 95% of

00:32:24.680 humanity was below

00:32:25.840 that level, and we've

00:32:27.420 just seen a dramatic

00:32:28.380 decline, as you

00:32:29.540 mentioned, we're now

00:32:30.420 down below 10%.

00:32:31.920 Even despite of

00:32:33.600 COVID, which a lot

00:32:34.420 of people have

00:32:34.860 pointed out, have

00:32:35.640 actually made more

00:32:37.700 poor people, we've

00:32:39.080 gone from 7% up to

00:32:40.600 about 9%, and so

00:32:41.980 we've delayed the

00:32:43.600 benefit for a couple

00:32:45.580 of years.

00:32:45.920 That's terrible, and I

00:32:46.720 would rather not have

00:32:47.660 had that happen, but

00:32:48.800 it doesn't change the

00:32:49.960 long-term trajectory

00:32:50.820 that's amazingly

00:32:52.020 downwards in the

00:32:53.160 sense that we have

00:32:53.780 many, many fewer

00:32:54.760 people that are poor.

00:32:56.520 One of my favorite

00:32:57.780 guys who runs the

00:32:59.340 World in Data

00:33:00.440 website, he points

00:33:03.440 out that every year

00:33:05.440 for the last 25 years,

00:33:06.820 the headline of

00:33:08.540 every newspaper

00:33:09.260 around the world

00:33:09.940 could have been,

00:33:10.820 over the last 24

00:33:11.620 hours, 138,000 people

00:33:14.780 have been lifted out

00:33:16.320 of poverty.

00:33:17.860 138,000 people every

00:33:19.580 day for the last 25

00:33:20.900 years.

00:33:21.500 But of course, it's

00:33:22.220 not news because it

00:33:23.340 happened every day.

00:33:25.240 It was not, you

00:33:26.240 know, some, oh, this

00:33:27.920 day it happened.

00:33:29.320 We don't get these

00:33:30.600 good news, and I

00:33:31.560 think we need to get

00:33:32.560 them in order to be

00:33:33.940 able to understand the

00:33:35.180 magnitude of what we're

00:33:36.600 talking about.

00:33:37.920 Well, you know, the

00:33:38.580 problem with accepting

00:33:39.580 that good news, or a

00:33:40.880 problem with it, is

00:33:41.820 that it pretty much

00:33:42.940 eradicates the romantic

00:33:44.460 rebel, you know,

00:33:46.920 because it all of a

00:33:48.040 sudden makes it very

00:33:49.200 difficult for you to

00:33:50.220 be cool, to find

00:33:52.120 something cool to

00:33:53.580 stand up against and

00:33:55.620 to resist.

00:33:56.740 You know, you have a

00:33:57.820 benevolent, relatively

00:34:01.400 benevolent society that's

00:34:03.000 getting incrementally

00:34:03.980 better.

00:34:04.480 It's not a villain that

00:34:05.400 you can heroically

00:34:06.260 resist.

00:34:07.500 And that is, and I'm

00:34:09.140 not being cynical about

00:34:10.180 that.

00:34:10.380 That is actually a

00:34:11.200 problem, because

00:34:11.960 resisting arbitrary

00:34:15.840 authority is a good

00:34:17.380 story, and it served

00:34:19.020 people well for a very

00:34:20.300 long time.

00:34:21.100 And if you don't have

00:34:22.360 that to catalyze your

00:34:24.460 identity, you have to

00:34:25.340 search for something

00:34:26.220 perhaps equally grand,

00:34:28.980 and that's difficult,

00:34:30.620 especially when you also

00:34:32.320 don't have to go out and

00:34:33.260 contend with the brute

00:34:34.760 force of mother nature

00:34:35.860 to anywhere near the

00:34:36.900 degree that you once

00:34:37.920 had to.

00:34:39.620 But if you look at it,

00:34:41.160 there's plenty of other

00:34:42.460 things you could stand up

00:34:43.480 to, and that was what

00:34:44.140 we were talking to.

00:34:45.040 Instead of being the

00:34:46.360 romantic hero that stands

00:34:47.680 up against society, why

00:34:48.800 aren't you the romantic

00:34:49.740 hero that stands up

00:34:50.760 against tuberculosis, or

00:34:52.320 the one that stands up

00:34:53.240 against maternal death, or

00:34:55.120 the one that stands up for

00:34:56.380 free trade, or the ones

00:34:57.400 that stand up for all these

00:34:58.980 other things, where we

00:35:00.020 know for very little

00:35:01.280 money, we can make a

00:35:02.700 tremendous benefit.

00:35:03.900 So again, I get why

00:35:05.540 it's not as sexy.

00:35:06.080 That's a really hard

00:35:06.520 question, man.

00:35:07.380 I mean, I think it might

00:35:08.380 have something to do also

00:35:09.560 with the inability to

00:35:11.420 utilize your resentment.

00:35:13.400 You know, if you're

00:35:13.980 resentful about things, and

00:35:15.320 you oppose the capitalist

00:35:17.640 state, you can easily

00:35:18.900 identify an enemy.

00:35:20.180 But if you stand up

00:35:21.440 against tuberculosis, like

00:35:23.780 obviously tuberculosis is

00:35:25.280 bad.

00:35:25.720 It doesn't make you look

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00:41:08.340 Last week, the Chinese

00:41:09.600 government just declared the

00:41:11.440 eradication of extreme

00:41:12.880 poverty in China.

00:41:14.000 And, you know, you can be

00:41:15.140 cynical about that and claim

00:41:16.780 that it's a totalitarian,

00:41:18.060 it's totalitarian, what

00:41:20.160 would you call, um, a

00:41:22.120 posturing, but it's

00:41:24.500 certainly the case that

00:41:25.320 even by UN standards, we've

00:41:28.880 almost, we were on track to

00:41:30.600 eradicate extreme poverty by

00:41:32.240 according to the UN

00:41:33.640 definition of extreme

00:41:34.640 poverty by 2030.

00:41:36.000 And we've halved it since

00:41:37.900 from the year 2000, I

00:41:39.400 believe to the year 2010, it

00:41:41.260 was cut in half, which is

00:41:43.340 absolutely phenomenal.

00:41:45.080 60% of the world was lived

00:41:46.920 in extreme poverty, uh, when

00:41:48.940 I was born, uh, today it's

00:41:50.940 less than 10%.

00:41:51.900 That's the greatest

00:41:53.100 achievement of any human

00:41:54.280 generation ever.

00:41:55.760 It's nobody's lived, lived

00:41:57.360 through anything like that

00:41:58.180 in the past.

00:41:58.940 Yes.

00:41:59.160 And that, despite the fact

00:42:00.260 that the population, what,

00:42:01.700 tripled?

00:42:02.640 Yes.

00:42:03.240 Well, yes.

00:42:04.260 Only two and a half times.

00:42:05.780 Um, and, uh, and nobody

00:42:07.880 saw it coming, uh, and it

00:42:09.360 wasn't planned even.

00:42:10.360 Most of it came about because

00:42:12.260 of, uh, you know, relatively

00:42:15.640 local innovation, um, to

00:42:18.400 make farming more efficient

00:42:19.780 and things like that.

00:42:20.940 And the amount of calories

00:42:22.260 available per head has gone

00:42:24.060 up on every continent,

00:42:25.300 including Africa.

00:42:26.220 There is still extreme

00:42:28.360 poverty and extreme hunger

00:42:30.280 and malnutrition, uh, and,

00:42:32.340 uh, nutrient shortages and

00:42:34.380 so on.

00:42:35.240 Um, but the thing I always say

00:42:38.500 to environmentalists is why

00:42:40.580 do you think it would

00:42:41.600 motivate people to tell

00:42:44.360 them that this problem is

00:42:45.480 insoluble?

00:42:47.180 Why not say, look how well

00:42:49.600 we've done in the past.

00:42:51.320 Why don't we try and do just

00:42:52.720 as well in the future?

00:42:53.900 Well, it's especially the

00:42:55.000 case, this chapter,

00:42:56.580 sweatshops save the planet.

00:42:58.400 That's sub chapter.

00:42:59.560 Actually, I figured that

00:43:00.340 would make you a lot of

00:43:01.200 friends.

00:43:01.580 So how does sweatshops save

00:43:03.740 the planet exactly?

00:43:05.580 How do you justify a

00:43:06.840 statement like that?

00:43:07.640 Well, I wrote this because

00:43:08.860 in the, in the 19th, in the

00:43:10.060 late 1990s, I was working

00:43:11.640 on an activist campaign to

00:43:13.580 criticize Nike for its

00:43:15.400 factory conditions in

00:43:16.440 Indonesia.

00:43:17.820 And I, as I, at 20 years

00:43:19.560 later, I went back to

00:43:20.640 Indonesia to see how things

00:43:22.540 were just to see what the

00:43:23.720 impacts were.

00:43:24.760 And my views totally

00:43:26.200 changed, um, factories.

00:43:29.000 And this has been going on

00:43:30.060 for 200 years, 250 years.

00:43:31.760 Women move from the farms

00:43:33.380 where they are basically

00:43:35.020 servants to their parents.

00:43:37.640 You know, the serving

00:43:39.120 class, their parents, they

00:43:40.020 move to the cities and it's

00:43:41.640 just liberation.

00:43:43.500 Yes.

00:43:43.860 The life and working in the

00:43:44.960 factory is really hard.

00:43:46.060 I mean, it's terrible.

00:43:47.140 Not compared to subsistence

00:43:48.980 living on a farm, but not

00:43:50.580 compared to living on the

00:43:51.780 farm.

00:43:52.240 And Suparti, who's the

00:43:53.760 factory worker who I

00:43:54.700 profile here, you know, she

00:43:55.840 has her own scooter.

00:43:56.780 She has her own home.

00:43:57.780 She's like, uh, in her

00:43:59.140 early twenties.

00:44:00.780 Um, she can marry whoever

00:44:02.200 she wants.

00:44:03.420 I mean, amazing, right?

00:44:05.440 She's a Muslim, um, still

00:44:07.420 Muslim, but she's, she's

00:44:08.660 left behind by coming to

00:44:10.600 the city, the traditional

00:44:12.080 practice of arranged

00:44:13.100 marriage.

00:44:14.560 Yeah.

00:44:14.660 Well, that's part of that

00:44:15.440 unconscious worship of

00:44:16.920 those sort of Ewok

00:44:17.980 villages that you

00:44:18.840 described.

00:44:19.340 And the only person who

00:44:20.260 would think that

00:44:20.780 subsistence farming is

00:44:22.020 somehow like a utopian

00:44:23.420 goal is only someone who's

00:44:25.400 so far removed from a

00:44:27.180 farm that all they have

00:44:29.080 in their head are images

00:44:30.340 from children's books

00:44:31.720 about like fairytale

00:44:33.260 villages, something like

00:44:35.040 that.

00:44:35.620 Cause it's just so

00:44:36.920 going.

00:44:37.820 It's like Elizabethan.

00:44:39.140 I always joke that it's

00:44:40.080 always the utopias are

00:44:41.220 always like Elizabethan

00:44:42.080 England.

00:44:42.800 You know, there's always

00:44:43.500 like a Renaissance fair

00:44:44.340 going on at the same

00:44:45.100 time.

00:44:45.580 And, and everyone's, you

00:44:46.840 know, and, and there

00:44:47.740 now, you know, there's a

00:44:50.560 kernel of truth in it, in

00:44:52.020 that when you go to Africa,

00:44:53.180 when you go to really poor

00:44:54.140 parts of sub-Saharan

00:44:54.860 Africa, as I did the day

00:44:56.980 before I, um, saw

00:44:58.660 incredible endangered

00:44:59.940 monkeys, um, you know,

00:45:02.120 you're walking through

00:45:02.760 villages that don't have

00:45:03.520 any electricity and there

00:45:05.160 was a church service

00:45:05.980 going on and they

00:45:07.320 started singing and it

00:45:09.060 was, I was just like,

00:45:10.340 oh, it is as romantic

00:45:11.860 and beautiful.

00:45:12.640 And, you know, when

00:45:13.420 there's not electronic

00:45:14.480 radios blaring and

00:45:15.700 whatever now in that

00:45:17.020 same village, infant

00:45:18.000 mortality is really high

00:45:19.640 in that same village.

00:45:20.960 The opportunities for

00:45:21.540 women are very low, not

00:45:23.100 to mention if you're

00:45:23.860 gay, I mean, you can't,

00:45:25.000 there's nobody, you

00:45:25.580 can't be gay in those

00:45:26.400 villages, you know, you

00:45:27.660 can be killed.

00:45:28.880 So, you know, there is

00:45:30.140 something that does get

00:45:31.120 lost with modernity, but

00:45:33.220 absolutely the stuff that

00:45:34.840 you gain has been

00:45:35.820 completely forgotten and

00:45:37.040 nobody remembers it.

00:45:38.100 I wouldn't have known it

00:45:39.340 had I not been a radical

00:45:41.000 socialist in my teenage

00:45:43.200 years and went to

00:45:44.560 Nicaragua to help the

00:45:45.620 Sandinistas.

00:45:46.280 I worked in Brazil to

00:45:47.420 help the anarchist, uh,

00:45:49.680 landless workers movement.

00:45:51.240 And, you know, you would

00:45:52.180 meet young people and you

00:45:53.180 start talking to them and

00:45:54.160 they'd be like, Hey, how

00:45:55.980 do I get to the city?

00:45:57.600 Yeah.

00:45:58.380 And it would be like,

00:45:59.520 you'd be like, well, we're

00:46:00.100 trying to create a

00:46:00.620 workers cooperative here

00:46:01.500 and be like, yeah, man, I

00:46:02.400 just want to get to the

00:46:03.100 university in the city.

00:46:04.100 Can you figure out how I

00:46:05.080 can do that?

00:46:05.600 And that changed me.

00:46:06.600 And I, and, and working

00:46:08.020 alongside folks as they're

00:46:09.360 clearing rainforest.

00:46:12.040 Oh yeah.

00:46:12.360 That's fun.

00:46:13.040 I picked rocks when I was

00:46:14.240 a kid.

00:46:14.840 I've tried to take stumps

00:46:16.040 out of the ground.

00:46:16.820 You do that for a week or

00:46:18.080 two and just see how far

00:46:19.080 you get picking rocks out

00:46:20.380 of a field.

00:46:20.840 That's quite the

00:46:21.600 entertaining work.

00:46:23.520 So, yeah, it makes you

00:46:24.780 much more grateful for not

00:46:26.920 just your own life, but

00:46:27.780 also for this incredible

00:46:28.940 process, uh, that we call

00:46:30.480 development and, uh, which

00:46:32.200 is really just urbanization

00:46:33.440 and industrialization.

00:46:34.980 So I wanted Apocalypse

00:46:36.140 never to sort of remind

00:46:38.380 people, introduce that

00:46:39.740 reality to people.

00:46:40.800 And also to see that it's

00:46:41.940 not at the case where the

00:46:43.540 picture people have is

00:46:45.100 that you industrialize and

00:46:47.060 then you destroy nature.

00:46:48.400 No, no.

00:46:48.840 It's subsistence agriculture

00:46:50.680 at the forest frontier,

00:46:52.600 which is driving the

00:46:53.580 destruction of critical

00:46:54.560 habitat.

00:46:54.700 And that means poverty.

00:46:55.800 Isn't that so cool?

00:46:56.660 Isn't that so cool when you

00:46:57.860 step back and look at it,

00:46:58.960 it's like, oh, poverty is

00:47:01.140 causing a tremendous amount

00:47:02.420 of environmental damage.

00:47:03.940 So if we could make people

00:47:06.600 rich and make things better

00:47:09.060 biologically, let's say,

00:47:10.560 more sustainable, and

00:47:11.500 actually the way to do the

00:47:12.640 latter is to do the former,

00:47:14.160 make people rich as fast as

00:47:15.480 you possibly can, then they

00:47:16.880 start to care.

00:47:17.720 And then you say that to

00:47:20.280 people, it's like resistance.

00:47:21.780 It's like, oh, I see.

00:47:22.620 You don't want people to be

00:47:23.640 rich on a healthy planet.

00:47:25.580 So what's up with you

00:47:26.720 exactly if that's bugging

00:47:28.340 you?

00:47:28.680 What's going on?

00:47:29.940 Because that's a good goal.

00:47:31.300 And all the smart

00:47:32.760 environmentalists I've talked

00:47:34.140 to, Lomberg, is like at the

00:47:37.080 pinnacle of that in many

00:47:38.740 ways.

00:47:39.440 They all come to that

00:47:40.700 conclusion.

00:47:41.940 And Marion Tupi as well.

00:47:43.440 It's like, well, no, no.

00:47:44.340 If you look at what happens,

00:47:45.920 you educate women, birth rate

00:47:47.940 plummets, and that'll

00:47:49.200 actually be a problem in a

00:47:50.240 hundred years because there

00:47:50.940 won't be enough people

00:47:51.940 rather than too many.

00:47:53.560 But that happens instantly,

00:47:54.840 even in one generation.

00:47:56.300 And so that's the solution

00:47:57.280 to population control,

00:47:58.900 assuming we needed that.

00:48:00.420 And so that's in alignment

00:48:01.540 with every feminist school.

00:48:03.240 And then as you get people

00:48:05.100 out of this slash and burn

00:48:06.700 agricultural cycle, well,

00:48:08.200 they start to be more

00:48:09.320 efficient in their use of

00:48:10.400 resources and they're not

00:48:12.020 living hand to mouth.

00:48:12.960 And so you make people rich

00:48:14.040 and they become

00:48:14.560 environmentalists.

00:48:15.640 It's like, okay, that

00:48:17.320 isn't what we've been told,

00:48:18.640 but that's how it works.

00:48:20.460 Despite more people,

00:48:22.000 despite more urbanization,

00:48:23.600 despite the hypothetically

00:48:25.060 decreasing prevalence of

00:48:26.560 resources, despite all of

00:48:28.360 those hypothetical problems,

00:48:30.340 there's been a 70% decline

00:48:32.700 in basic global commodity

00:48:34.640 prices adjusted for wages

00:48:36.640 from 1980 till 2018.

00:48:40.700 Stunning, right?

00:48:41.340 Not what anyone was predicting

00:48:42.760 in the 1960s by any stretch

00:48:44.720 of the imagination.

00:48:46.580 Yes, that's absolutely correct.

00:48:48.020 So even though the population

00:48:49.220 of the world has increased

00:48:50.280 by something like 70%,

00:48:51.680 the prices of natural resources

00:48:53.760 have declined by 70%,

00:48:55.260 which means that every

00:48:56.820 additional person born on the

00:48:58.920 planet has made things

00:49:00.180 cheaper for us by about 1%.

00:49:02.960 And nobody saw that coming.

00:49:05.780 Right.

00:49:05.980 That should be said 50 times.

00:49:07.900 Right, because it's so not

00:49:10.700 what anyone thinks.

00:49:12.540 More people means more wealth.

00:49:15.440 That's exactly right.

00:49:16.460 You know, I've also seen that

00:49:17.880 more people means more

00:49:19.200 ecological preservation,

00:49:20.660 and so does more wealth,

00:49:21.780 because richer people care

00:49:23.140 more about the environment.

00:49:24.580 And so you see that perverse

00:49:26.580 occurrence too,

00:49:28.560 that once GDP gets to the point

00:49:31.020 where people aren't

00:49:31.740 scrabbling around trying to stay

00:49:33.340 alive, so maybe $5,000

00:49:35.160 per capita, all of a sudden

00:49:37.560 environmental concerns start

00:49:38.920 to manifest themselves.

00:49:40.160 And so it looks like we could

00:49:42.340 have more people and make them

00:49:43.860 richer faster, and that would

00:49:45.340 be better for the planet.

00:49:47.740 No, that's absolutely right.

00:49:49.080 The cleanest environment in the

00:49:50.380 world is in advanced countries,

00:49:53.280 in Western capital societies.

00:49:57.180 When you see tremendous attack

00:50:02.320 on the environment is in poor

00:50:05.100 countries, you know,

00:50:06.520 when the Venezuelan economy

00:50:07.840 collapsed, they started eating

00:50:09.100 animals in the zoo.

00:50:10.540 In Zimbabwe, when their economy

00:50:12.440 collapsed, they started

00:50:13.840 slaughtering the wildlife.

00:50:15.460 You know, if it's a choice

00:50:16.740 between killing a giraffe

00:50:17.740 or having my baby die,

00:50:19.880 I know what I have to do, right?

00:50:21.120 But, so for the longest time,

00:50:24.620 people thought that if population

00:50:28.820 grows, we are going to run out

00:50:31.740 of resources.

00:50:33.120 And this is not what has happened.

00:50:35.400 We have more resources.

00:50:37.540 Resources are cheaper, but that in

00:50:39.220 itself is an indication that they

00:50:40.760 are more abundant than before.

00:50:45.500 Because, of course, human beings are

00:50:47.140 not just consumers of resources.

00:50:49.140 We're not just destroyers of

00:50:50.300 resources. We're also creators

00:50:51.600 of resources.

00:50:52.800 Human beings are producers of

00:50:54.140 ideas.

00:50:55.120 Yes, and on average, we produce

00:50:56.640 more than we consume.

00:50:57.820 Otherwise, we would die.

00:51:00.180 Well, that's exactly right.

00:51:01.260 And that's what people like

00:51:02.680 Thomas Malthus or Paul Ehrlich

00:51:04.480 at Stanford University

00:51:07.740 were worried about.

00:51:08.660 They freaked out two generations

00:51:10.620 of people.

00:51:12.540 Ehrlich's population.

00:51:13.600 And we still haven't recovered

00:51:14.920 from that.

00:51:16.040 No, we still haven't recovered

00:51:17.160 from that.

00:51:17.560 It's part of our basic

00:51:17.580 autocalyptic narrative.

00:51:18.600 No one believes, if I tell my

00:51:20.420 students, we're going to peak at

00:51:21.700 nine billion and we can handle

00:51:22.960 that and then the population is

00:51:24.200 going to decline.

00:51:25.520 No one believes that.

00:51:27.000 If you say that, well, we've got

00:51:28.620 richer as more people have been

00:51:29.860 born rather than poorer because

00:51:31.300 brain power exceeds

00:51:32.780 consumption, essentially,

00:51:35.060 especially as people have got

00:51:36.200 healthier and

00:51:37.440 their IQ has increased, which is

00:51:39.540 something we could talk about as

00:51:40.640 well.

00:51:41.660 None of this is part of the general

00:51:43.480 apocalyptic narrative.

00:51:45.200 No, not only can we get access to

00:51:48.000 new resources, but also we can

00:51:49.380 replace resources which are

00:51:51.180 becoming scarce.

00:51:52.140 So, for example, humans used to

00:51:54.940 make candles out of spermaceti,

00:51:57.520 which is this weird sort of stuff

00:52:03.060 in the brains of the oils, the oil

00:52:05.980 or fat in the brains of the whales.

00:52:09.620 So, we used to murder them by the

00:52:12.500 thousands and we used to scrape

00:52:14.460 out that spermaceti and build it

00:52:16.300 into nice candles.

00:52:18.860 And then we realized that we didn't

00:52:21.580 have to do that, that it was

00:52:22.700 actually quite expensive and quite

00:52:24.220 stupid because we could produce

00:52:26.080 electricity by burning coal.

00:52:28.000 And then we decided that we can

00:52:29.560 switch from coal to gas and maybe

00:52:31.860 eventually to nuclear and whatever.

00:52:34.120 And so, that's how humanity

00:52:38.680 manages to constantly produce more.

00:52:42.940 It's through innovation.

00:52:44.400 And in fact, in Western countries

00:52:46.020 today, we have reached peak stuff.

00:52:49.900 This is a book, very important book,

00:52:51.480 which I recommend to your readers

00:52:52.480 by Andrew McAfee, and that is

00:52:54.920 making more from less or more from

00:52:58.040 less.

00:52:59.600 Now, what it means really is that even

00:53:01.680 though the American economy and the

00:53:04.700 British economy continue to grow and

00:53:07.320 produce more GDP per capita in

00:53:10.080 absolute terms, the amount of

00:53:13.660 resources that go into it, be it

00:53:16.080 aluminum or whatever, that has

00:53:22.540 actually peaked off about 10 or 20

00:53:24.580 years ago and it's now declining.

00:53:26.560 So, we have become so incredibly

00:53:28.920 productive, that we can now use much

00:53:32.740 less resources in order to produce

00:53:34.580 more wealth, more GDP.

00:53:37.160 It doesn't look like we're going to

00:53:39.340 overpopulate the planet to the point

00:53:41.460 where we're going to destroy all our

00:53:43.060 natural resources, the planet, and

00:53:45.420 everyone's going to starve.

00:53:47.240 That doesn't seem to be in the cards.

00:53:49.900 So, unless we make catastrophic and

00:53:51.940 likely avoidable errors.

00:53:53.840 Right now, there are 7.8 billion

00:53:56.240 people in the world.

00:53:57.920 It looks like we are going to peak at

00:54:00.680 9.8 in the 2060s or the 80s, and then

00:54:05.480 it will decline to about 8.8 by the end

00:54:08.520 of this century.

00:54:10.060 Lancet had a study a couple of months

00:54:12.900 ago which showed, again, remember 7.8

00:54:16.140 billion people in the world today.

00:54:17.620 Lancet thinks that there will be either

00:54:19.360 6.8 or 8.8 billion people in the world

00:54:22.620 in 2100, but every demographer that I

00:54:28.540 know of expects that human population

00:54:30.680 will peak and then it will start

00:54:32.480 declining.

00:54:34.160 That's because a total fertility rate,

00:54:37.080 which is to say the number of babies

00:54:38.480 born to a woman, have been on a

00:54:42.480 downward trajectory.

00:54:44.020 Currently, in the United States, in much

00:54:46.740 of Western Europe, women are having

00:54:49.760 fewer than two babies per woman per

00:54:53.360 lifetime, and in order to have a

00:54:55.100 replacement rate, you need 2.1 babies

00:54:57.780 because some of them die.

00:54:59.400 So, population without immigration in

00:55:03.360 Western Europe will continue to decline.

00:55:06.700 Our numbers are still going up because

00:55:08.960 obviously we have huge immigration, but

00:55:12.220 women are not having that many babies.

00:55:14.740 Now, is this going to be a blessing or is

00:55:17.620 it going to be a potential problem?

00:55:20.140 Well, it could be a potential problem

00:55:21.600 because human beings are the producers

00:55:26.140 of ideas and ideas lead to innovation.

00:55:29.200 And if a genius is one out of a billion

00:55:32.580 or one out of a million, then the fewer

00:55:34.780 millions of people you have born, the fewer

00:55:36.980 geniuses are going to be born.

00:55:38.320 And that in itself, and that to me is a

00:55:43.700 major concern.

00:55:44.700 But of course, in Western countries, we

00:55:47.300 have promised so much to the future

00:55:49.300 generations that are supposed to be paid

00:55:52.580 for by children who are born in the

00:55:56.480 future.

00:55:57.220 But if those children are not being born,

00:55:59.060 who is going to pay off that debt in the

00:56:00.900 future?

00:56:01.160 Who is going to pay for all those

00:56:02.400 retirees?

00:56:03.200 Those questions should also be answered.

00:56:05.660 Yes, it's quite surprising to note that

00:56:08.080 one of the more pressing social problems

00:56:10.100 in 100 years might be that there aren't

00:56:12.380 enough people rather than there are too

00:56:15.740 many.

00:56:16.460 Could easily be the case.

00:56:18.240 Africa's had an incredible decade,

00:56:19.780 actually, much better than the West, which

00:56:21.580 has had a rather grim decade of low

00:56:23.440 productivity and the overhang of the

00:56:25.760 Great Recession and so on.

00:56:27.240 But, you know, countries like Ethiopia

00:56:28.720 have doubled their income per capita in

00:56:31.180 real terms in a decade.

00:56:33.040 You've seen malaria mortality collapse.

00:56:36.400 You've seen HIV mortality falling fast.

00:56:39.260 You've seen warfare disappearing from

00:56:42.000 much of the continent.

00:56:43.500 You've seen an emerging middle class.

00:56:45.680 You've seen far less hunger and

00:56:47.040 malnutrition.

00:56:48.220 Actually, Africa is just doing roughly

00:56:51.320 what Asia did a generation ago, and it

00:56:54.080 will soon be where Asia is now, which is a

00:56:57.080 middle class, middle income continent.

00:57:00.120 Um, that's an incredible thing.

00:57:03.220 And it, it, it, well, in Africa, Africa

00:57:06.240 has, has unparalleled potential.

00:57:09.360 I read an analysis probably 15 years ago.

00:57:12.760 I believe it was by the former CEO of

00:57:15.840 Alcoa, the aluminum company, um, who was

00:57:19.440 working for a Republican government as a, as a,

00:57:22.300 as a cabinet member at that point.

00:57:24.880 I'm afraid I can't remember his name, but he

00:57:28.120 visited Uganda and was very curious about

00:57:32.220 its potential with regards to agriculture and

00:57:34.900 calculated, first of all, Uganda apparently

00:57:37.040 sits on a water table.

00:57:38.140 That's only about 200 feet down and it's

00:57:40.100 very fertile.

00:57:40.880 He calculated, and maybe this wasn't his

00:57:43.320 calculation, but he reported that Uganda

00:57:45.380 alone could feed all of Africa.

00:57:47.460 And so there's, there's no reason to assume

00:57:52.140 that, um, despite the fact, for example, I

00:57:55.520 think it's Nigeria is on course to be the

00:57:58.620 world's most populous country by the year

00:58:00.840 2100.

00:58:01.840 I think the demographic projections are that

00:58:04.540 it will surpass China by that point.

00:58:06.900 Yes, that, that, that, I believe that's true.

00:58:09.540 And that's, that's quite an interesting thought,

00:58:11.680 isn't it?

00:58:12.040 But now, I mean, just, just to cast your mind

00:58:15.040 forward to the year 2100, I think we will be

00:58:18.320 producing food, an awful lot of it from

00:58:20.800 factories by then, and by factories, I mean

00:58:22.740 vertical farms, you know, indoor LED lit, um,

00:58:27.520 uh, uh, multi-story, um, uh, operations that

00:58:31.440 why LED lit?

00:58:32.840 Why LED lit?

00:58:33.940 Because LEDs are so cheap.

00:58:35.700 They, they use so little electricity and

00:58:38.180 produce so little heat that you can actually

00:58:40.460 start to make indoor farming make sense.

00:58:43.020 Because light was, was the, was the big

00:58:45.040 problem for farming.

00:58:46.020 You had to be outdoors for the light because

00:58:48.120 the plants don't grow except in sunlight.

00:58:49.980 But the, the LED revolution has made a big

00:58:52.300 difference there.

00:58:53.180 And, you know, I can imagine us having, you

00:58:56.380 know, basically some indoor farms, the size

00:58:58.960 of Uganda that feed the world and the rest of

00:59:02.040 the planet.

00:59:02.860 Yes.

00:59:03.300 We'll have hobby farming and we'll, we'll

00:59:05.180 have grass fed beef in here and there and so

00:59:07.420 on, but an awful lot of the rest of it will

00:59:09.720 be one giant national park in which we will

00:59:12.680 allow nature to thrive.

00:59:14.560 And by the way, I think.

00:59:15.760 And allow people to, allow people to, to

00:59:17.100 operate as tourists.

00:59:18.560 I mean, increasingly ecologically pristine

00:59:21.120 areas pay for themselves with tourism.

00:59:23.880 And so that, that brings them into the

00:59:25.920 economy, which is an almost certain way of

00:59:27.840 preserving them.

00:59:28.960 Yeah.

00:59:29.500 So.

00:59:30.040 And I suspect we'll bring back some extinct

00:59:32.000 species by then as well.

00:59:35.900 Famine was quite widespread in Europe in the

00:59:38.060 20th century, far more than people generally

00:59:40.500 remember, realize.

00:59:42.520 I mean, Holland went through terrible famines,

00:59:44.940 the Scandinavian countries.

00:59:46.780 And of course, in Great Britain in the late

00:59:49.220 1800s, the, the Irish famine haunted, was a

00:59:53.380 specter that haunted the entire world's

00:59:55.300 population until extraordinarily recently.

00:59:58.200 And the news on that front is astoundingly

01:00:01.600 positive.

01:00:02.180 No one starves anymore except for political

01:00:05.520 reasons, essentially.

01:00:06.800 So forced starvation, planned starvation, but not

01:00:11.060 accidental.

01:00:12.480 That's correct.

01:00:13.720 So in the late 1800s, we started understanding

01:00:17.540 agriculture and agricultural productivity much

01:00:21.640 more than before.

01:00:23.260 Not only did we introduce new technologies, better

01:00:27.080 plows and so forth, but we also discovered that

01:00:31.040 guano, which is just bird pooping, bird poop from South

01:00:37.260 America, contain so many nutrients, especially

01:00:41.480 phosphorus, that when it was sprinkled all over the, the

01:00:46.640 late, the late 19th century agricultural land, it could

01:00:51.620 actually increase yields tremendously.

01:00:54.020 And then when we started running out of guano, yet another

01:00:57.800 example of human ingenuity, we started producing synthetic

01:01:01.280 fertilizers full of, I believe it's nitrogen and phosphorus and so

01:01:07.260 forth.

01:01:07.480 Now, that wasn't the last when it came to human ingenuity, we

01:01:14.420 started also toying with the genes of different plants, which led to a new sturdier and more

01:01:23.800 productive wheat varieties in the 70s by a man called John Borlaug.

01:01:31.260 John Borlaug.

01:01:32.640 Right, who saved more people than any other person who ever lived, in all likelihood.

01:01:38.120 That's exactly right.

01:01:39.180 So instead, it's quite interesting that just as people were starting to be really worried

01:01:43.260 about this population growth, especially in China and India, people immediately started

01:01:49.120 working on the ways to solve the problem.

01:01:54.260 And so, you know, the population bond comes out in 1968.

01:01:58.260 And right about that time, into the early 70s, you have Borlaug introducing these new varieties,

01:02:05.060 wheat varieties into Bangladesh and India and China and elsewhere.

01:02:09.480 And of course, food production rockets, skyrockets.

01:02:12.980 India today is a major exporter of food.

01:02:16.740 Now, these were people who were starving by tens of millions.

01:02:20.200 When I was growing up in the 1980s, I remember being terrified by the images of starving people,

01:02:26.840 starving children in East Africa, in the whole of Africa.

01:02:32.620 And now you see, this is so unbelievable.

01:02:35.800 The world's poorest region, Sub-Saharan Africa, now enjoys access to food in volumes that are

01:02:44.540 equivalent to Portugal in the 1960s.

01:02:47.840 So now, and that's a very, very small amount of time from the 1960s to now, well within living memory of many people.

01:02:57.100 One of the richest countries in the world had the same amount of food per capita as the poorest part of the world does now.

01:03:04.880 Stunning, stunning.

01:03:06.400 Absolutely remarkable.

01:03:08.260 And so positive, so good.

01:03:10.020 Yeah, so today, access to calories in Africa is roughly 2,400 calories per person per day.

01:03:18.500 Now, obviously, not everybody gets it.

01:03:20.540 There are serious problems in Africa still.

01:03:22.460 You do still have conflict and so forth, and people do get to starve.

01:03:25.720 But the widespread starvation because you couldn't produce enough food, that doesn't happen anymore.

01:03:30.020 And that's obviously a tremendously positive step forward.

01:03:35.560 In fact, many African problems, many African countries are beginning to experience the problem of obesity, especially in urban centers.

01:03:43.660 Now, if somebody told you that 50 years ago, you would have said, you know, you're high.

01:03:48.940 Great.

01:03:49.360 So the problem in 100 years is that we're going to have nothing but fat people, and there'll be far too few of them.

01:03:56.720 How is it that becoming rich saves the environment?

01:04:01.820 Well, it's because Bernadette in the Congo gets to move to the city.

01:04:06.260 And when you ask Bernadette, hey, would you like to live in the city and have a job at a factory?

01:04:10.940 She's like, hell yes.

01:04:12.040 Is there one?

01:04:13.120 No, that's the problem in Congo.

01:04:14.760 But it's not like the picture that people have, which comes in part from Marx, you know, it's in Capital, the tragedy, not the tragedy of the commons.

01:04:22.100 The dark satanic mills.

01:04:24.080 Yes, exactly.

01:04:24.840 It's this picture that, like, these happy subsistence farmers have been forced into slave-like conditions in the factories.

01:04:32.880 When nine times out of ten, it's the opposite.

01:04:35.060 They would like to go to the cities.

01:04:36.360 They're wanting to go to the cities to get those opportunities.

01:04:38.480 And then when they leave their, frankly, low-productive, crappy little farm behind, much of the time it just reverts to grassland and forests.

01:04:48.080 So stop crying about the loss of the family farm.

01:04:51.820 I say this because I'm going to break my mom's heart because, you know, we lost the family farm in our generation.

01:04:56.600 But for many people, losing the family farm is fine.

01:05:01.720 Like, they're just like, it was terrible, you know, for much of the world.

01:05:05.720 And then it reverts to grasslands and forests.

01:05:07.880 Just like it has in North America.

01:05:09.440 Yeah, I mean, so much marginal farmland.

01:05:12.260 I know, I don't remember how many more percentage-wise trees there are in the Northern Hemisphere since 100 years ago.

01:05:19.440 But it's like 40%.

01:05:20.740 And then that's another thing that's really interesting is that, and that you don't hear much about, is that a huge chunk of the planet has greened over the last 20 years, too.

01:05:29.260 I think it's an area the size of the U.S.

01:05:31.180 It's some staggering, staggering amount of land anyways.

01:05:35.640 And that just never comes up.

01:05:37.520 It's like, and the idea, I didn't know as well until about six or seven years ago that we're in all likelihood going to peak at about 9 billion people.

01:05:48.040 And then it's like, that's going to plummet real fast, like really fast by all appearances.

01:05:53.420 And so, and we can certainly sustain a population of 9 billion, as far as I can tell, without wreaking environmental havoc, especially as we get smarter technologically.

01:06:02.720 And that's happening so fast that we can't even keep up with it.

01:06:05.940 You talk about fish farming in relationship to that, for example.

01:06:10.280 Yeah, I mean, look, first of all, we produce so much food.

01:06:13.160 I mean, Jordan, it's crazy, right?

01:06:14.440 We have 25% food surpluses.

01:06:16.980 I mean, we produce 25% more food than we need.

01:06:20.040 We've never had surpluses that large of share of total food production or the total size.

01:06:25.620 And during the same period when we're using less and less land.

01:06:28.640 So we're producing more and more food on less and less land.

01:06:31.400 This is like one of the greatest human success stories of all times.

01:06:34.600 We struggle with overweight.

01:06:36.100 We struggle with obesity.

01:06:37.120 We struggle with having too much food.

01:06:38.620 In the future, we're going to struggle with not having enough people.

01:06:41.040 In some countries, we already are.

01:06:42.880 I mean, that gives me some hope is that, you know,

01:06:44.560 the New York Times had a front page story a few weeks ago about how, you know,

01:06:48.840 the problems related to not having to negative population growth, right?

01:06:53.620 To population declines.

01:06:55.200 You know, we knew really in the late 60s,

01:06:57.800 at the time when hysteria over overpopulation was the highest,

01:07:01.620 we knew that the rate of increase had peaked and declined.

01:07:05.900 And so we really had to put up with another 20 years of just this apocalyptic nonsense around too many people.

01:07:12.340 My hope is that the same thing will happen with climate change.

01:07:14.760 I mean, it's already happening.

01:07:16.040 Carbon emissions, as you pointed out, have declined in the United States by 22% since 2005.

01:07:22.600 And why is that?

01:07:23.780 We should have a little chat about that.

01:07:25.360 Why is that?

01:07:26.100 Because no one predicted this.

01:07:28.120 So...

01:07:28.320 Yeah.

01:07:28.640 I mean, natural gas in the short version.

01:07:30.960 Right.

01:07:31.300 Fracking.

01:07:31.960 From fracking.

01:07:32.420 I was very familiar with that because fracking was everywhere in Northern Alberta,

01:07:36.160 which is saturated with hydrocarbons everywhere, you know,

01:07:39.020 so it was a big part of the economy and fracking was par for the course there 40 years ago.

01:07:44.120 But it's so...

01:07:44.900 And this is so interesting too from an economic perspective,

01:07:48.500 when you're thinking about environmental policy,

01:07:50.840 it's like these environmental breakthroughs did not come where we expected them to come.

01:07:57.620 And you cite an MIT scientist on page 105.

01:08:01.520 I wanted to read this because it's so unlikely.

01:08:05.460 I think that's...

01:08:06.700 I hope I've got it in the right place here.

01:08:09.500 Oh, I won't read it.

01:08:11.440 I'll just say it.

01:08:13.080 He says,

01:08:13.940 if you really wanted to decrease carbon in the atmosphere,

01:08:17.780 you might want to accelerate the rate at which coal is being burned in India.

01:08:22.480 So let's unpack that because you think coal and India and lower carbon?

01:08:28.340 What's that about?

01:08:29.380 That's Kerry Emanuel from MIT.

01:08:32.340 And he points out that rising prosperity, coal-powered prosperity now will result in people choosing to have fewer kids.

01:08:42.840 And therefore, you'll have fewer people in the future producing more pollution.

01:08:45.720 The specifics of how that works, I mean, that's basically the whole story is that prosperity,

01:08:52.600 we should view prosperity as essential to protecting the natural environment in part because of declines of population,

01:08:59.320 but also because we end up moving towards cleaner sources of energy.

01:09:02.400 Right, once you get away from wood, so wood's really bad.

01:09:07.020 Then coal, well, coal's got a lot cleaner, way cleaner, as you point out in your book.

01:09:11.780 And so that's a really good thing.

01:09:14.080 And so, but coal isn't as good, let's say, as natural gas.

01:09:16.640 And maybe natural gas isn't as good as nuclear.

01:09:19.740 Now, who knows?

01:09:20.500 Because that's complicated, but it's a possibility.

01:09:23.040 And so you want to get people away from wood as fast as possible.

01:09:25.960 Well, that's part of that getting away from zero too, right, in terms of economic growth is when you're at a subsistence level,

01:09:33.120 you don't have enough time to be making the future better.

01:09:36.480 You're just trying to survive today.

01:09:38.280 You can't get off the ground.

01:09:39.820 And for the first time in human history, we could get everyone off the ground.

01:09:43.580 No one would have to be at zero.

01:09:45.720 You know, and then to give the radical leftist types credit, at least hypothetically,

01:09:50.680 they're concerned with all those people that are stuck at zero.

01:09:53.100 Well, but the unexamined environmentalism is interfering with that in very complicated ways.

01:09:59.240 And so, well, it's hard to sort this all out, obviously.

01:10:03.280 No, but part of what I wanted to do to go beyond, I think, some of the traditional criticisms of apocalyptic environmentalism

01:10:11.240 was to sort of say, look, there's a truly benevolent process of energy progress

01:10:17.140 from wood and dung to coal and hydroelectric dams to oil and natural gas to nuclear.

01:10:23.780 So we can talk about nuclear, but basically what you're doing is you're shrinking the footprint,

01:10:29.660 the land footprint required to produce those fuels to basically zero.

01:10:34.340 You know, so to give you a sense of it, you know, like coal has at least twice as much energy as a lump of wood.

01:10:39.220 You go to oil and gas, you get a significant increases, plus it's coming from underground rather than above ground

01:10:45.180 or having to destroy whole mountains as you do for coal.

01:10:48.280 You get to nuclear, uranium mining.

01:10:51.040 I mean, you know, this amount, less than this amount of uranium, that amount of uranium provides me with all the power I need for my entire life.

01:10:57.540 A whole high energy life is completely available to you.

01:11:01.220 Yeah, well, and we should have a bit of a chat about energy.

01:11:03.600 It's like, okay, what's wealth that you want to deliver to poor people?

01:11:08.840 Okay, what's wealth?

01:11:10.120 Energy.

01:11:11.000 Make energy cheap.

01:11:12.880 There's no poor people.

01:11:14.120 Why?

01:11:15.160 Well, because work requires energy and work produces everything.

01:11:18.780 And so if energy is dirt cheap, there aren't poor people.

01:11:22.400 And so do you not want to have no poor people?

01:11:25.740 It's like cheap energy, man.

01:11:27.640 That's your savior.

01:11:28.820 And as you said, if we do this half ways intelligently, it's always also extremely good for the planet.

01:11:35.980 So, so, well, but the whole system has to come down because I'm depressed.

01:11:41.860 So that's not a very good argument.

210. Progress of the Human Race, Part 2

Summary

Transcript