The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast - 213. Don't Climate Panic - An Investigation into The Proposed Solutions to Climate Change

00:00:00.000 Hey everyone, real quick before you skip, I want to talk to you about something serious and

00:00:05.560 important. Dr. Jordan Peterson has created a new series that could be a lifeline for those

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00:00:48.080 the first step towards the brighter future you deserve. Welcome to the Jordan B. Peterson podcast,

00:00:56.660 season four, episode 70. In the previous compilation episodes, we looked at the progress of the human

00:01:02.760 race. Today, we're tackling the topic of climate change. Are we experiencing an increasingly worsening

00:01:09.000 climate? Is it possible that rising temperatures and tides will kill us all? What's the truth?

00:01:13.660 Thankfully, there are a growing number of reputable scientists and authors that are presenting a much

00:01:18.700 more optimistic story. Using the same data set, as many of the climate alarmists, people like Bjorn

00:01:25.460 Lomborg, Michael Schellenberger, and Matt Ridley explain that while climate change is real, it's not the

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00:03:06.740 Making poor people richer is an extremely intelligent environmental move for a variety of reasons.

00:03:30.320 I mean, the first is perhaps that once you get people above a certain level of income,

00:03:35.460 they can start buying fuels that are cleaner than the fuels they use now.

00:03:42.100 Dung and wood and that kind of thing.

00:03:45.480 But also that as people move up the economic hierarchy,

00:03:49.520 they have time to be concerned about things that are more abstract,

00:03:53.220 like what the environment is going to be like for their children,

00:03:57.400 which they're not going to be, or when they go on holiday, for example,

00:04:01.680 you know, or even where they live as they have some options to choose where to live.

00:04:06.920 And so it could be, you know,

00:04:10.680 we often construe the relationship between the economy and the environment as a zero-sum game, right?

00:04:17.640 And the biologists in particular, broadly speaking,

00:04:21.160 the political biologists have a proclivity to do that.

00:04:24.480 That as the economy grows, we sacrifice the environment to it.

00:04:28.840 But it could be the case that we get the best environmental bang for the buck

00:04:34.660 by making the poor rich as fast as we possibly can around the world.

00:04:39.880 And if we make poor economic decisions,

00:04:42.420 because we're catastrophizing a certain kind of environmental calamity,

00:04:46.400 we're inviting, we're actually increasing the risk of environmental degradation

00:04:51.900 in the medium and the long term.

00:04:54.500 Do you think that's reasonable?

00:04:57.240 Yes, absolutely so, and in a number of different ways.

00:05:00.180 So I think it's funny how we don't recognize how terrible it is to be poor.

00:05:06.740 If you're poor, you're vulnerable in all kinds of ways.

00:05:10.360 You're very clearly incredibly vulnerable to global warming.

00:05:14.200 So if you remember, there was a big hurricane hitting Haiyan, the Philippines back in 2013.

00:05:22.040 It was made a big deal out of as global warming.

00:05:25.420 It hit this very, very poor city where most of their citizens live on the corrugated roof.

00:05:33.700 Not surprisingly, having a Hurricane 5 is terrible when you live on the corrugated roof.

00:05:39.340 The best way to help these people, obviously, would be to lift them out of poverty.

00:05:43.720 What actually is, we can see back in the early part of last century,

00:05:48.740 a similar hurricane hit and eradicated about half the city.

00:05:53.000 This time, it was only about a 20th of the city.

00:05:56.740 So much, much better because the city was much richer.

00:05:59.900 But if we focused on making them even richer,

00:06:02.500 they would be much better off just simply from the point of view of being more protected from hurricanes.

00:06:09.740 So, you know, fundamentally, there's something weird about us saying,

00:06:13.400 oh, those poor people in the Philippines, we should help them by not driving our car today.

00:06:19.180 What?

00:06:19.780 No, you should help them by becoming rich, becoming part of the integrated global economy,

00:06:25.000 making sure that their kids would be better educated,

00:06:28.540 not die from easily curable infectious diseases and so on.

00:06:31.380 So not only would it be better environmentally,

00:06:34.440 but it would obviously also be better for them educationally,

00:06:37.400 for them health-wise and all these other things.

00:06:40.360 It would simply generate much, much better lives in the Philippines.

00:06:46.180 But as you also pointed out, as you get richer,

00:06:49.700 you're actually cleaner in almost all ways.

00:06:52.220 You don't use dung and cardboard and wood to cook inside,

00:06:56.660 but also you stop cutting down forests.

00:06:59.820 You move to the city instead, you become a web designer or something else that's very,

00:07:04.840 very little related to actually clearing out forest land.

00:07:09.460 You do a lot of things in cities that are much more ecologically sustainable.

00:07:14.560 And of course, in the long run, you will actually also say,

00:07:17.480 I would like to make sure that we have better regulations,

00:07:19.920 so we have less air pollution,

00:07:21.640 so we have many of the other things that drive environmental benefits.

00:07:25.200 So absolutely, by getting people out of poverty,

00:07:29.220 we fix most environmental problems.

00:07:31.820 But, and this is the important but, we don't fix global warming.

00:07:35.160 As you get richer, you just simply emit more and more CO2,

00:07:38.600 because these guys will then start flying around the world.

00:07:41.540 They'll start consuming a lot more meat.

00:07:44.000 They'll be doing a lot of other things because they're richer.

00:07:46.460 That's wonderful for them, but it will mean higher emissions of CO2.

00:07:50.820 So we do need to have a conversation about how we're going to fix that problem.

00:07:55.780 Okay, so why don't you lead us down that path?

00:07:58.260 Okay, let me comment a bit on what you just said,

00:08:00.740 and then let's go down that pathway.

00:08:02.780 Okay, so to swallow what you just said and to believe it,

00:08:08.080 there's a set of beliefs that you have to have already in place.

00:08:12.160 You have to believe that the current economic system isn't fatally flawed

00:08:16.480 and basically works, or at least works better than any hypothetical alternatives

00:08:21.880 that have been tried or that we can dream up.

00:08:24.500 So it basically works.

00:08:25.700 And works means, as it runs, it tends to lift people out of absolute poverty.

00:08:30.580 There's still a maintenance of relative poverty,

00:08:34.840 but absolute poverty tends to disappear.

00:08:36.880 And there seems to be really good evidence for that,

00:08:39.040 especially across, well, since the Industrial Revolution,

00:08:41.860 but it's really taken off in the last 30 years,

00:08:44.340 maybe non-coincidentally with the demise of communism,

00:08:48.500 which was a competing economic theory

00:08:52.920 and produced all sorts of bad economic decisions.

00:08:55.620 In any case, you have to buy the hypothesis that the current system works

00:09:00.000 and that extending it is going to be better.

00:09:02.800 And so you don't get to adopt a stance of revolutionary criticism

00:09:10.120 of the Western capitalist hierarchy.

00:09:14.000 So that's a big sacrifice if your thinking is oriented in that direction.

00:09:19.160 Now, I don't know really what to make of that

00:09:21.720 because you'd think the evidence that the poor

00:09:26.860 had been lifted out of poverty at an unbelievable,

00:09:29.980 like an astonishing rate since the year 2000,

00:09:32.800 not just in China, but all over the world,

00:09:36.260 would be essentially irrefutable evidence

00:09:40.080 that the current system works.

00:09:43.580 And then if you look at China

00:09:44.900 after they adopted free market policies

00:09:48.000 compared to before they adopted free market policies,

00:09:50.520 there's absolutely no comparison with regard to growth.

00:09:53.960 And so it isn't obvious to me

00:09:56.520 how if you were truly concerned with the poor,

00:09:59.380 you'd be able to deny the sorts of propositions that you put forward.

00:10:06.120 I don't understand that.

00:10:08.020 Maybe it's partly because people just don't know

00:10:11.120 how much better things have gone in the last 20 years and why.

00:10:15.840 Because it has been difficult news to bring forward

00:10:18.640 and it's difficult to market.

00:10:20.480 If I can just...

00:10:23.660 Yes.

00:10:24.020 Yes.

00:10:24.740 So one of the things I think people don't recognize,

00:10:27.860 if you look at a graph over the last 200 years,

00:10:31.700 200 years ago, almost everyone in the world

00:10:33.820 were absolutely poor in the sense of less than a dollar a day.

00:10:37.220 Less than a dollar a day.

00:10:38.120 Yeah.

00:10:39.240 95% of humanity was below that level.

00:10:42.620 And we've just seen a dramatic decline.

00:10:44.860 As you mentioned, we're now down below 10%.

00:10:47.800 Even despite of COVID,

00:10:49.860 which a lot of people have pointed out,

00:10:51.340 have actually made more poor people,

00:10:54.540 we've gone from seven up to about 9%.

00:10:57.340 And so we've delayed the benefit for a couple of years.

00:11:01.760 That's terrible.

00:11:02.400 And I would rather not have had that happen,

00:11:04.340 but it doesn't change the long-term trajectory.

00:11:06.700 That's amazingly downwards in the sense

00:11:09.220 that we have many, many fewer people that are poor.

00:11:12.620 One of my favorite guys who runs the World in Data website,

00:11:18.040 he points out that every year for the last 25 years,

00:11:23.260 the headline of every newspaper around the world

00:11:25.820 could have been over the last 24 hours,

00:11:28.500 138,000 people have been lifted out of poverty.

00:11:32.660 138,000 people every day for the last 25 years.

00:11:37.380 But of course, it's not news because it happened every day.

00:11:41.100 It was not, you know, some, oh, this day it happened.

00:11:44.960 We don't get these good news.

00:11:47.180 And I think we need to get them in order to be able to understand

00:11:50.540 the magnitude of what we're talking about.

00:11:53.780 Well, you know, the problem with accepting that good news

00:11:56.280 or a problem with it is that it pretty much eradicates

00:11:59.580 the romantic rebel, you know,

00:12:02.780 because it all of a sudden makes it very difficult

00:12:05.420 for you to be cool, to find something cool

00:12:08.800 to stand up against and to resist.

00:12:12.460 You know, you have a benevolent,

00:12:16.540 relatively benevolent society that's getting incrementally better.

00:12:20.280 It's not a villain that you can heroically resist.

00:12:22.740 And that is, and I'm not being cynical about that.

00:12:26.260 That is actually a problem

00:12:27.440 because resisting arbitrary authority is a good story

00:12:33.680 and it's served people well for a very long time.

00:12:36.960 And if you don't have that to catalyze your identity,

00:12:40.680 you have to search for something perhaps equally grand.

00:12:44.980 And that's difficult,

00:12:47.020 especially when you also don't have to go out

00:12:48.960 and contend with the brute force of Mother Nature

00:12:51.720 to anywhere near the degree that you once had to.

00:12:55.460 But if you look at it,

00:12:57.020 there's plenty of other things you could stand up to.

00:12:59.540 And that was what we were talking to.

00:13:00.840 Instead of being the romantic hero

00:13:02.980 that stands up against society,

00:13:04.460 why aren't you the romantic hero

00:13:05.920 that stands up against tuberculosis

00:13:07.580 or the one that stands up against maternal death

00:13:10.800 or the one that stands up for free trade

00:13:12.840 or the ones that stand up for all these other things

00:13:15.360 where we know for very little money,

00:13:17.460 we can make a tremendous benefit.

00:13:19.520 So again, I get why it's not as sexy.

00:13:22.000 That's a really hard question, man.

00:13:23.260 I mean, I think it might have something to do also

00:13:25.420 with the inability to utilize your resentment.

00:13:29.320 You know, if you're resentful about things

00:13:30.960 and you oppose the capitalist state,

00:13:34.100 you can easily identify an enemy.

00:13:36.040 But if you stand up against tuberculosis,

00:13:39.340 like obviously tuberculosis is bad.

00:13:41.580 It doesn't make you look good by comparison.

00:13:43.880 Environmentalism is depressing.

00:13:49.860 It's actually bad for mental health.

00:13:52.580 I think that's now being proven quite dramatically

00:13:54.740 with rising levels of anxiety and depression

00:13:57.160 and reports by school children around the world

00:13:59.500 that they were having nightmares about climate change.

00:14:02.120 You may know that half of all people surveyed

00:14:04.120 say that they think climate change

00:14:05.780 could result in the extinction of humankind.

00:14:08.080 My views have evolved over the years,

00:14:09.960 but I've always viewed apocalyptic environmentalism

00:14:13.500 as a problem for people that care about saving nature,

00:14:18.000 for people that, for everybody.

00:14:20.080 And so those awards came from that prior book.

00:14:23.820 Yeah, well, the environmental activism issue

00:14:26.980 is interesting because, at least in part,

00:14:29.220 because it also, it seems to me,

00:14:31.040 interferes with sensible policymaking.

00:14:33.100 So it's actually self-defeating in a profound sense.

00:14:36.240 I mean, first of all, it gets people hyper-worried

00:14:38.380 about extremely vaguely formulated problems,

00:14:42.640 distracts them from what the prioritized issues might be.

00:14:47.780 And, well, it's hard to think clearly

00:14:51.000 about what steps to take to move forward

00:14:52.880 when you're panicking in a vague and unpleasant manner.

00:14:56.280 So, and that, you do not do that in Apocalypse, never.

00:14:59.220 That's one of the things I really liked about it

00:15:00.980 was that in each sub-chapter,

00:15:03.340 you drill down, at least to some degree,

00:15:05.540 to the level of actually, actual implementable policy.

00:15:08.900 So you start with a story about this group.

00:15:11.120 And, no, I should ask you first,

00:15:12.340 who are you exactly to write such a book?

00:15:14.340 Like, why do you know this?

00:15:15.400 And why should people listen to you?

00:15:17.840 Sure.

00:15:18.740 So I've been an environmental activist for 25 years.

00:15:21.760 I've also been, I'm also an environmental journalist.

00:15:24.220 I write a column for Forbes.

00:15:26.700 This is, that's my, Apocalypse Novel is my second book.

00:15:30.540 You know, I don't have any formal qualifications.

00:15:32.640 I was a cultural anthropologist.

00:15:35.520 I quit my PhD program in the 1990s

00:15:37.540 because the program had become too postmodern and abstruse.

00:15:41.280 The first big essay I wrote was called

00:15:43.540 The Death of Environmentalism.

00:15:45.060 And then I mentioned the book Breakthrough.

00:15:47.360 I mean, you may find interesting that, you know,

00:15:49.000 my father is a very humanistic psychologist

00:15:52.120 in the same tradition of work that you are in,

00:15:54.740 or I see us in.

00:15:55.660 And I knew that environmentalism was making me depressed,

00:16:00.220 like climate change was depressing me.

00:16:03.040 And that, and so one of the famous lines

00:16:05.060 from The Death of Environmentalism,

00:16:06.440 which was an essay in 2004,

00:16:07.780 was Martin Luther King didn't give the

00:16:09.980 I Have a Nightmare speech.

00:16:11.500 He gave the I Have a Dream speech.

00:16:13.580 And we wrote that because I was reading,

00:16:16.180 I would read books about the civil rights movement,

00:16:18.680 and I would feel inspired by these stories

00:16:20.620 of heroic overcoming.

00:16:22.080 And then I would read books by Bill McKibben

00:16:24.900 and other environmentalists,

00:16:25.820 and I would feel depressed.

00:16:27.480 And I thought, you know,

00:16:28.540 something that makes you feel depressed

00:16:29.960 is probably not very motivating

00:16:31.200 to make positive social change.

00:16:33.300 Yeah, you kind of wonder, you kind of wonder too,

00:16:35.920 and this is, since we're talking about

00:16:37.280 psychological issues, is that it's possible too

00:16:40.860 that that kind of apocalyptic thinking

00:16:42.860 is much more difficult for people to escape

00:16:46.140 when they are in fact depressed.

00:16:49.180 And so it's very difficult to separate out

00:16:51.320 political beliefs from, let's say, emotional state.

00:16:56.020 And so that's an interesting issue in and of itself.

00:17:00.080 You know, people might object,

00:17:01.440 well, you know, the crisis is so gloomy

00:17:04.700 if you're a realist that, of course, you're depressed.

00:17:07.800 And it should be the case because, you know,

00:17:10.760 look how depressing the facts are.

00:17:12.540 But that strikes me as, well,

00:17:16.100 it kind of puts the cart before the horse in some sense.

00:17:18.300 It's like, are you sure the crisis is of that proportion?

00:17:21.320 And then are you sure that depressing people

00:17:23.820 is precisely the way to go about it?

00:17:25.400 And then last thing there may be is,

00:17:27.720 I couldn't shake the suspicion,

00:17:30.100 especially in relationship to environmentalism,

00:17:32.420 that it's contaminated quite badly

00:17:35.860 with like historical shame and guilt

00:17:38.380 and a certain kind of profound anti-humanism.

00:17:40.920 And so, and I mean contaminated by that.

00:17:44.120 You know, I've heard environmentalists say something like,

00:17:47.220 well, the planet would be better off

00:17:48.840 as if it was a being in some sense,

00:17:51.400 if there were no people on it.

00:17:53.220 It's like, yeah, well,

00:17:54.700 I'm not so sure I trust people

00:17:57.440 who say things like that and then don't notice.

00:17:59.760 So, yeah, I mean, I was,

00:18:03.080 I, one of the things I stumbled across,

00:18:04.500 I mean, I think at the end of the apocalypse,

00:18:05.960 never in the false gods for lost souls chapter,

00:18:08.600 I talk about how I myself was depressed

00:18:11.880 at a period when I was drawn

00:18:13.300 towards apocalyptic environmentalism.

00:18:15.460 So I think there's an interesting question of,

00:18:17.340 is apocalyptic environmentalism depressing

00:18:19.180 or is, or are depressed people

00:18:22.360 attracted to apocalyptic environmentalism

00:18:24.320 or both, of course.

00:18:25.980 I stumbled across the work of Aaron Beck,

00:18:28.320 who, you know, the founder

00:18:29.700 of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy,

00:18:31.980 one of the founders.

00:18:33.520 And I was struck that the three structures

00:18:35.740 of depressed people that he identified,

00:18:38.620 I'm a terrible person,

00:18:39.920 the world is a terrible place

00:18:41.440 and the future is bleak,

00:18:43.240 that that's the exact same three structures

00:18:45.880 of the every environmental narrative.

00:18:48.800 So every environmental narrative

00:18:49.880 is that humans are terrible,

00:18:51.620 cancer on the planet,

00:18:53.440 the world is going to hell in a handbasket

00:18:56.000 and the future is not,

00:18:57.580 you know, the end is nigh.

00:18:59.380 And that struck me really-

00:19:00.640 Yeah, well, so that's a very interesting observation,

00:19:02.440 especially in relationship

00:19:03.540 to your comments about school children.

00:19:05.580 And so perhaps driving those three axioms home,

00:19:10.540 you know, emphatically and forcefully,

00:19:12.960 isn't the wisest thing to be doing

00:19:14.440 to young children.

00:19:15.820 And the fact of that overlap

00:19:17.260 with depressive thinking,

00:19:18.360 I mean, Beck's no small figure

00:19:19.820 in the history of psychological thinking.

00:19:22.080 He's also extraordinarily practical

00:19:23.760 as is cognitive behavioral therapy.

00:19:25.760 And it also has a,

00:19:27.380 what would you say,

00:19:28.220 as a psychological philosophy

00:19:30.420 or as a branch of medicine even,

00:19:34.020 one of the things

00:19:34.680 the cognitive behaviorists

00:19:35.800 are really, really good at,

00:19:37.600 and I did this in my clinical practice,

00:19:39.340 is to take those vague

00:19:40.900 depressive apprehensions

00:19:42.600 and then break them down

00:19:44.420 into micro-problems

00:19:46.100 that can actually be addressed.

00:19:47.640 And that's much less depressing.

00:19:50.420 It's like, well,

00:19:50.880 exactly why is the future so depressing

00:19:53.420 as far as you're concerned?

00:19:54.600 Like, in some detail,

00:19:55.900 not vague.

00:19:57.280 Now, look,

00:19:58.540 if you're going to run away from something

00:20:00.020 because it hurts

00:20:01.200 and it's dangerous,

00:20:02.200 it doesn't really matter

00:20:03.160 if you have a vague conception of it,

00:20:05.320 right?

00:20:06.140 But if you're going to face it

00:20:07.400 and confront it

00:20:08.260 and solve it,

00:20:09.320 let's say,

00:20:09.700 then you can't be vague about it.

00:20:11.800 And that's also good

00:20:12.980 for your mental health.

00:20:13.940 That approach,

00:20:16.300 orientation,

00:20:17.780 is directly linked

00:20:18.960 biochemically

00:20:19.940 and neurophysiologically

00:20:21.000 to positive emotion.

00:20:22.180 So the process

00:20:22.860 of decomposing

00:20:23.720 these terrible abstract problems

00:20:25.320 into solvable micro-problems

00:20:27.040 actually facilitates

00:20:28.160 positive emotion

00:20:28.900 and suppresses anxiety.

00:20:30.840 And so it is

00:20:31.260 very interesting overlap there.

00:20:33.120 And it's worth thinking about.

00:20:35.100 I viewed writing,

00:20:35.960 I viewed Apocalypse

00:20:36.640 never as cognitive behavioral therapy.

00:20:38.880 both for myself

00:20:40.300 but for other people.

00:20:41.560 And in fact,

00:20:42.360 the highest praise

00:20:43.240 I received from people

00:20:44.180 is people who told me

00:20:45.100 that they were very depressed

00:20:46.260 about the environment

00:20:47.600 and then they read Apocalypse never

00:20:48.900 and they felt much better.

00:20:50.520 And so I think

00:20:51.180 you have to do both things.

00:20:52.320 Like, as you pointed out,

00:20:53.580 cognitive behavioral therapy

00:20:54.600 require his,

00:20:56.040 you know,

00:20:56.200 Beck's therapy was

00:20:57.140 you have to be

00:20:58.380 very concrete

00:20:59.340 about why you're

00:21:00.340 a good person,

00:21:01.300 why the world

00:21:01.820 is a good place

00:21:02.600 and why the future is bright.

00:21:03.880 You have to be

00:21:04.200 very specific about it.

00:21:05.720 It has to be very,

00:21:07.060 it has to be evidence-based.

00:21:08.340 It can't be fantasy land.

00:21:10.960 It has to be actionable as well.

00:21:12.560 Yeah.

00:21:12.760 Oh, that's so interesting

00:21:13.840 because I wouldn't have,

00:21:14.720 I certainly didn't get that sense

00:21:16.320 reading the book,

00:21:17.260 you know,

00:21:17.520 that it,

00:21:17.920 that although

00:21:18.460 you could also,

00:21:20.080 although

00:21:20.420 illuminating

00:21:22.560 the fact that

00:21:23.900 the problems

00:21:24.920 that beset us

00:21:26.180 globally

00:21:26.680 and individually

00:21:27.460 are actually

00:21:28.320 actionable

00:21:29.300 and aren't so dismal

00:21:30.900 when you look at them

00:21:31.660 in detail

00:21:32.080 and are also complex

00:21:33.360 in weirdly interesting ways.

00:21:34.920 it's not surprising

00:21:36.980 that has positive

00:21:37.880 psychological consequences.

00:21:39.540 I mean,

00:21:39.720 I certainly was pleased,

00:21:41.220 for example,

00:21:41.720 by your discussion

00:21:42.680 of plastics.

00:21:44.720 You know,

00:21:44.960 I've been following

00:21:45.820 the work of

00:21:46.420 this Dutch kid,

00:21:47.760 I don't remember his name,

00:21:48.960 but he's built this gadget

00:21:50.080 for gathering plastic,

00:21:51.340 which is quite cool.

00:21:52.720 And,

00:21:52.920 and I didn't know

00:21:55.400 that the evidence

00:21:56.380 for the decomposition

00:21:57.680 of plastics

00:21:58.500 was as robust

00:21:59.620 as you describe

00:22:00.940 in the book.

00:22:01.420 So I thought,

00:22:02.060 hey,

00:22:02.220 isn't that good?

00:22:02.940 That's,

00:22:03.500 that's,

00:22:04.040 that's,

00:22:04.440 that's a positive

00:22:05.560 thing to see.

00:22:06.260 And I saw many examples

00:22:07.440 of that in the book,

00:22:08.440 that,

00:22:08.760 that things aren't

00:22:10.380 as bad as we think.

00:22:11.320 So let's go through that.

00:22:12.300 Let's start.

00:22:12.820 You start talking

00:22:13.660 about this group,

00:22:14.680 I think it's a UK group,

00:22:15.980 Extinction Rebellion.

00:22:17.120 And I kind of see them

00:22:18.440 in some sense

00:22:19.080 as the forerunners

00:22:20.220 of where we might go

00:22:21.600 if we regard

00:22:22.460 the impending

00:22:23.620 climate catastrophe

00:22:24.920 as a doom

00:22:26.120 and gloom

00:22:26.660 laden

00:22:27.700 existential crisis.

00:22:28.920 It's like,

00:22:29.760 man,

00:22:30.100 half the people

00:22:30.760 on the planet

00:22:31.260 are going to die.

00:22:32.900 No solution

00:22:35.080 is too drastic.

00:22:36.860 Okay,

00:22:37.240 so that's Extinction Rebellion

00:22:39.040 in some sense.

00:22:39.780 So maybe you could

00:22:40.800 tell the story

00:22:41.360 about that.

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00:25:30.160 I was going to say,

00:25:31.120 they say no solution

00:25:32.540 is too drastic

00:25:33.280 unless it's nuclear energy,

00:25:34.720 in which case

00:25:35.200 they're against it.

00:25:36.280 Or in case it's fracking,

00:25:37.880 in which case

00:25:38.260 they're against that too.

00:25:39.440 And I get at that right away,

00:25:40.580 which is that why are the people

00:25:41.440 who are the most apocalyptic

00:25:42.460 the most dead set

00:25:44.480 against the things

00:25:45.440 that have reduced

00:25:46.220 carbon emissions,

00:25:47.440 natural gas and nuclear,

00:25:49.520 by far the two things

00:25:50.580 that have reduced

00:25:51.000 carbon emissions the most,

00:25:52.420 instead they're in favor

00:25:53.280 of things that don't work,

00:25:55.160 adding a lot of unreliable

00:25:56.800 renewables onto your grid,

00:25:58.860 making electricity expensive,

00:26:00.900 making societies

00:26:02.220 less resilient to climate change.

00:26:04.480 Those are all high priorities

00:26:06.020 for the apocalyptic

00:26:07.000 environmental movement.

00:26:08.120 So it's not just that.

00:26:08.820 So why, why, why, why?

00:26:09.920 What's going on?

00:26:11.340 Like, well, I mean,

00:26:11.940 it was interesting.

00:26:12.340 It's so interesting.

00:26:13.820 Yeah.

00:26:14.460 Well, I mean,

00:26:14.940 you were on my mind a bit

00:26:16.160 when I was working,

00:26:16.900 particularly towards

00:26:17.700 the last chapter.

00:26:18.680 I go through three core motivations.

00:26:20.520 One is there's certainly

00:26:21.220 powerful financial interests

00:26:22.560 that work,

00:26:23.460 renewable energy companies.

00:26:25.020 I document how fossil energy

00:26:26.700 companies have financed

00:26:27.820 anti-nuclear campaigns

00:26:29.000 for 50 years.

00:26:31.040 I also have the third,

00:26:33.040 it's the chapter,

00:26:34.080 there's chapters 10, 11, 12,

00:26:35.580 the last three chapters

00:26:36.360 of the book

00:26:36.720 look at the motivations.

00:26:38.220 Chapter 11 is more

00:26:39.200 on kind of will to power,

00:26:40.880 a desire for status,

00:26:42.660 for feeling important,

00:26:44.200 particularly places like Europe,

00:26:45.400 which are becoming irrelevant

00:26:46.720 with the rise of China,

00:26:48.600 wanting to assert their power

00:26:50.100 over the developing world.

00:26:52.140 You know,

00:26:52.280 it's no coincidence,

00:26:53.020 I think,

00:26:53.620 that as Europe's power

00:26:54.660 has faded,

00:26:55.440 they've become more demanding

00:26:56.860 to take control

00:26:57.740 of the international economy

00:26:59.000 in the name of climate change.

00:27:00.960 And then the third chapter

00:27:02.180 kind of says,

00:27:02.860 you know,

00:27:03.040 those are both

00:27:03.560 important motivations,

00:27:04.620 but there's something else

00:27:05.720 going on,

00:27:06.480 which is that

00:27:07.240 apocalyptic environmentalism

00:27:08.580 is clearly

00:27:09.200 a religious movement.

00:27:10.500 Everything about it,

00:27:11.340 the guilt,

00:27:13.740 the original sin,

00:27:15.420 the apocalypse,

00:27:17.260 the obsession with food,

00:27:20.500 you know,

00:27:20.760 various things about it

00:27:21.960 are clearly a religion

00:27:22.880 and I'm hardly the first

00:27:23.860 to make that observation.

00:27:25.940 I document,

00:27:26.720 in fact,

00:27:26.960 there's actually good

00:27:27.480 empirical work

00:27:28.160 documenting that.

00:27:30.040 And so I see the,

00:27:31.160 you know,

00:27:31.440 rising secularization,

00:27:33.200 what Nietzsche called

00:27:34.000 the death of God

00:27:34.920 and the nihilistic vacuum

00:27:36.440 that would be created

00:27:37.140 in its wake

00:27:37.800 as really the underlying engine

00:27:40.060 for apocalyptic environmentalism.

00:27:42.360 It's a way to give meaning

00:27:44.360 to the world.

00:27:46.160 So, you know,

00:27:46.880 I'm writing a new book

00:27:48.140 which is going to be called

00:27:49.280 We Who Wrestle With God

00:27:50.800 and it,

00:27:52.860 it,

00:27:53.760 obviously,

00:27:54.760 we're thinking along the same lines

00:27:56.320 and for some of the same reasons

00:27:57.720 in that

00:27:58.100 there's this

00:27:59.740 adage in the New Testament

00:28:01.980 that warns people

00:28:03.880 that they should deliver

00:28:04.960 unto God

00:28:05.460 that which is God

00:28:06.260 and unto Caesar

00:28:07.000 that which is Caesar's

00:28:08.080 and, of course,

00:28:08.800 that,

00:28:09.180 on that statement

00:28:09.860 is built the notion

00:28:10.860 that separation of church

00:28:12.500 and state

00:28:12.840 is actually appropriate.

00:28:13.920 But I also think

00:28:14.860 that's true psychologically

00:28:16.000 and this is part of the problem

00:28:17.520 I have with the new atheist movement

00:28:19.080 or that

00:28:20.060 if you don't have a domain

00:28:22.240 that's sacred

00:28:22.940 and rituals

00:28:23.740 and,

00:28:24.420 and,

00:28:24.920 and to deal

00:28:26.280 and some understanding

00:28:28.000 that there are deepest values

00:28:29.780 and that's the domain

00:28:31.000 of the sacred

00:28:31.540 whether you like it or not,

00:28:33.300 you obliterate that

00:28:35.080 in the name of rationality

00:28:36.300 and all that happens

00:28:37.000 is that things

00:28:38.180 that are Caesar's

00:28:39.420 now become contaminated

00:28:40.560 with the religious

00:28:41.540 and that's really

00:28:42.780 not a good thing.

00:28:43.860 It's a seriously

00:28:44.460 not a good thing.

00:28:45.780 So it's interesting

00:28:46.400 to see you

00:28:47.020 close the book

00:28:48.300 with that kind of,

00:28:49.800 you know,

00:28:50.020 with thinking

00:28:50.420 that's along the same

00:28:51.300 sort of line.

00:28:52.700 And so did you see that

00:28:53.580 working in you personally

00:28:55.120 that?

00:28:55.860 Yes.

00:28:56.460 Okay, how?

00:28:59.300 Yeah,

00:28:59.820 I mean,

00:29:00.220 when I was apocalyptic

00:29:01.180 about climate change,

00:29:02.700 you mean?

00:29:02.920 Yes,

00:29:03.400 for sure.

00:29:04.380 And I came back

00:29:05.520 to my Christianity

00:29:06.900 in writing Apocalypse Never,

00:29:09.460 but it was also,

00:29:10.680 I also became convinced

00:29:11.840 that by Jonathan Haidt

00:29:13.460 and others

00:29:13.880 that,

00:29:14.380 that having faith

00:29:15.660 was rational.

00:29:18.340 So,

00:29:19.100 you know,

00:29:19.600 that it's actually

00:29:20.180 psychologically healthy

00:29:21.100 to have a faith

00:29:22.000 and so I had to get over

00:29:23.020 my own

00:29:24.120 demonization

00:29:26.120 of spirituality

00:29:27.060 or demonization

00:29:27.800 of faith

00:29:28.300 and that unlocked

00:29:29.200 the,

00:29:30.080 I couldn't finish

00:29:30.920 Apocalypse Never

00:29:31.520 actually until I had

00:29:32.320 done that

00:29:32.920 No,

00:29:33.740 I wouldn't have guessed

00:29:34.900 that again

00:29:35.380 from reading the book

00:29:36.100 because it,

00:29:36.900 that isn't obvious

00:29:38.660 just as the psychological

00:29:39.800 issue wasn't obvious

00:29:40.900 and that,

00:29:41.300 I think that's a really

00:29:42.060 good thing by the way

00:29:42.960 that should all be

00:29:43.660 implicit in the book

00:29:44.520 rather than explicit.

00:29:46.160 It makes for a better,

00:29:47.600 a less cluttered book

00:29:48.660 let's say.

00:29:49.920 I wanted,

00:29:50.460 yeah,

00:29:50.720 I mean,

00:29:51.020 I,

00:29:51.140 I,

00:29:51.740 some of my best allies

00:29:53.520 Stephen Pinker,

00:29:54.840 Michael Shermer

00:29:55.460 are in the New Atheist Movement

00:29:57.140 and I really regard them

00:29:59.040 as friends

00:29:59.540 as I love them

00:30:00.380 and,

00:30:01.880 and Steve also

00:30:02.860 blurbed my new book

00:30:04.160 San Francisco

00:30:04.720 and so San Francisco

00:30:05.820 and then I'm doing

00:30:06.260 a third book afterwards

00:30:07.280 and all three books

00:30:08.320 are basically

00:30:08.940 about the threats

00:30:11.360 to civilization

00:30:12.140 from within

00:30:13.240 and that they're,

00:30:14.980 and they all conclude,

00:30:16.560 San Francisco looks at

00:30:17.740 the religious,

00:30:18.800 this,

00:30:19.560 you know,

00:30:19.920 religious,

00:30:20.560 the secular religion

00:30:21.480 of compassion

00:30:23.100 and how it's gone

00:30:24.360 completely crazy

00:30:25.360 to basically result

00:30:27.380 in greater victimization

00:30:28.660 in the name

00:30:29.220 of rescuing victims

00:30:30.360 and so I'm definitely

00:30:32.580 after,

00:30:33.420 I think we're after

00:30:33.980 the same big prey here

00:30:35.400 which is,

00:30:36.600 you know,

00:30:37.100 the threats to civilization

00:30:38.860 are coming from

00:30:39.840 the most civilized

00:30:40.800 members of society

00:30:42.180 who are also

00:30:44.260 the most secular members

00:30:45.460 or they think

00:30:46.260 they're the most secular

00:30:46.840 members of society

00:30:47.520 and they're,

00:30:48.120 they're,

00:30:48.720 they're projecting

00:30:49.600 their needs for,

00:30:50.480 they're constructing

00:30:51.440 new religions.

00:30:52.820 Yeah,

00:30:53.000 well,

00:30:53.180 they're also,

00:30:53.920 so,

00:30:54.280 you know,

00:30:54.520 with the death of God

00:30:55.560 and this is Nietzsche

00:30:56.620 through Jung,

00:30:57.460 I suppose,

00:30:57.980 because Jung was

00:30:58.640 a great student

00:30:59.320 of Nietzsche

00:30:59.840 and as much as Freud

00:31:01.560 for sure,

00:31:03.240 as much as he was

00:31:04.220 a student of Freud's

00:31:05.280 and Jung was really

00:31:06.520 trying to solve

00:31:07.420 the problem

00:31:08.060 that Nietzsche posed

00:31:09.160 and that was

00:31:10.020 his life's work

00:31:10.840 and I think in many ways

00:31:12.300 he actually managed that

00:31:13.600 pointing out,

00:31:14.760 first of all,

00:31:15.200 that we cannot create

00:31:16.220 our own values,

00:31:17.060 that's actually not possible,

00:31:18.300 we're not wise enough,

00:31:19.320 smart enough,

00:31:19.800 we don't live long enough,

00:31:21.420 we just don't have

00:31:22.260 that much intellectual,

00:31:24.900 spiritual capacity,

00:31:25.840 we have to depend

00:31:26.640 at least to some degree

00:31:27.500 on tradition

00:31:28.020 and that brings up

00:31:28.720 all sorts of problems

00:31:29.640 and that guilt

00:31:30.320 you talked about,

00:31:31.100 like that religious guilt,

00:31:32.420 I was watching Guy Ritchie's

00:31:34.040 King Arthur the other day

00:31:35.500 and when the new,

00:31:37.200 the king,

00:31:38.140 the to-be king Arthur

00:31:39.620 puts his hands

00:31:40.760 on the sword,

00:31:41.980 he has this unbearable vision

00:31:43.880 of his uncle

00:31:45.140 killing his father,

00:31:46.760 the evil uncle,

00:31:47.480 and the evil uncle

00:31:48.440 is a very standard

00:31:49.800 archetypal trope,

00:31:50.960 you see it in

00:31:51.560 The Lion King,

00:31:52.600 for example,

00:31:53.240 with Scar

00:31:53.700 and the evil uncle

00:31:54.980 is often the tyrannical aspect

00:31:56.980 of the patriarchy,

00:31:58.320 let's say

00:31:58.780 and, you know,

00:31:59.860 we all exist in relationship

00:32:01.240 to that

00:32:01.880 because we all exist

00:32:02.800 in relationship

00:32:03.420 to this patriarchal

00:32:05.160 social structure,

00:32:06.080 history,

00:32:06.680 because we're

00:32:06.960 historical creatures

00:32:07.760 and then we all

00:32:08.860 do have this guilt

00:32:10.000 that overwhelms us

00:32:11.000 about the blood

00:32:12.080 and gore

00:32:12.680 and catastrophe

00:32:13.480 that got us

00:32:14.540 to where we are,

00:32:15.460 our unearned privilege,

00:32:16.940 you know,

00:32:17.160 to take a phrase

00:32:17.880 from the radical leftists,

00:32:19.360 it's part of our

00:32:20.200 existential burden

00:32:21.180 and the existential psychologists

00:32:23.920 who were followers

00:32:25.140 mostly of,

00:32:27.300 I can't remember

00:32:30.000 the philosopher's name

00:32:30.880 momentarily,

00:32:31.600 wrote being in time,

00:32:32.500 Heidegger,

00:32:33.220 Heidegger,

00:32:33.900 you know,

00:32:34.140 Heidegger talked about

00:32:35.020 being thrown into the world,

00:32:36.640 so you're arbitrarily

00:32:38.000 put somewhere,

00:32:39.360 parents are arbitrary,

00:32:41.160 you're subject to society

00:32:42.600 and this,

00:32:43.620 and you have these

00:32:44.220 existential concerns

00:32:45.180 that will never go away

00:32:46.160 and one of them is

00:32:46.940 the terrible corrupt weight

00:32:48.880 of history

00:32:49.460 and how are you related

00:32:51.120 to that as an ethical being

00:32:52.940 and the radical leftists

00:32:54.340 are definitely wrestling

00:32:55.480 with that,

00:32:56.460 you know,

00:32:56.720 but in their depression,

00:32:58.160 let's say,

00:32:58.620 they can only see

00:32:59.600 the negative aspect

00:33:00.580 of the patriarchal figure

00:33:02.300 and not the positive aspect

00:33:03.600 and that's a real catastrophe

00:33:04.960 because,

00:33:06.100 well,

00:33:06.640 makes you ungrateful

00:33:08.080 for one thing,

00:33:09.420 which is not a good idea

00:33:10.460 in a modern state.

00:33:11.940 So,

00:33:12.540 okay,

00:33:13.180 well,

00:33:13.560 let's go back

00:33:14.160 to Extinction Rebellion

00:33:16.620 and so,

00:33:17.380 you talk about

00:33:18.180 this activist group

00:33:19.720 that's highly motivated

00:33:21.260 to point out the crisis

00:33:22.780 and to take whatever

00:33:23.860 steps are necessary,

00:33:26.020 but they won't do

00:33:26.980 practical things.

00:33:28.100 Nuclear energy,

00:33:29.320 for example,

00:33:30.000 that's a really interesting one

00:33:31.300 and so,

00:33:31.920 why not?

00:33:33.040 Is that part

00:33:34.480 of the contamination

00:33:35.480 of the environmentalist movement

00:33:36.920 with anti-capitalism per se

00:33:38.780 or what's going on there?

00:33:40.240 It's like...

00:33:40.640 Well,

00:33:40.780 yeah,

00:33:40.940 for sure.

00:33:41.520 I mean,

00:33:41.660 I think you,

00:33:42.500 yes.

00:33:43.060 So,

00:33:43.340 and this is also in my new book,

00:33:46.380 which is,

00:33:46.860 why are the main advocates

00:33:49.460 for action on the issue

00:33:51.560 opposed to the obvious solutions,

00:33:54.380 the solutions that have worked,

00:33:55.500 that have proven to work?

00:33:57.260 And so,

00:33:57.800 yes,

00:33:58.100 for sure,

00:33:58.620 because their motivation

00:33:59.800 is to destroy the whole system.

00:34:01.360 They view the system

00:34:02.200 as the cause of the problem

00:34:03.600 and they view anything

00:34:04.280 that distracts attention

00:34:06.600 from destroying

00:34:07.600 what they view

00:34:08.320 as an evil system

00:34:09.260 as,

00:34:10.520 in some ways,

00:34:10.860 participating in the system.

00:34:12.300 So,

00:34:12.480 that's definitely going on.

00:34:13.380 Right, right.

00:34:13.780 Yeah.

00:34:14.180 Yeah,

00:34:14.400 I've seen that sort of thinking

00:34:15.780 really destroy people too.

00:34:17.420 Like,

00:34:17.580 I've seen people literally

00:34:19.080 take their own lives

00:34:20.600 because they thought that way.

00:34:21.920 They felt they were so corrupt

00:34:23.760 that any ambitious achievement

00:34:26.720 whatsoever in the service

00:34:28.220 of this evil structure

00:34:29.380 was ethically forbidden.

00:34:31.740 And so,

00:34:32.540 it's kind of,

00:34:33.260 it's like the ultimate

00:34:34.140 in pessimistic,

00:34:35.320 nihilistic Buddhism.

00:34:36.160 And it's also another example

00:34:37.600 of that global thinking,

00:34:39.580 global vague thinking

00:34:40.480 that does,

00:34:41.240 in fact,

00:34:41.660 characterize clinical depression.

00:34:44.560 Yeah,

00:34:44.740 I mean,

00:34:44.920 it's interesting.

00:34:45.640 I mean,

00:34:45.780 one of the things,

00:34:46.700 I talk about how Greta Thunberg,

00:34:48.100 the Swedish youth climate activist,

00:34:51.000 condemned nuclear power

00:34:52.220 as dangerous,

00:34:54.220 unnecessary,

00:34:55.000 and too expensive.

00:34:56.500 Well,

00:34:56.840 since when does she care

00:34:57.760 about too expensive?

00:34:58.820 I mean,

00:34:59.020 she's demanding basically

00:35:00.380 that we,

00:35:01.340 you know,

00:35:02.060 grind economic growth

00:35:03.240 to a halt

00:35:03.780 in order to reduce

00:35:04.700 carbon emissions.

00:35:06.700 You know,

00:35:07.400 she condemns basically

00:35:08.920 any modest progress

00:35:10.240 as inadequate,

00:35:11.680 and yet she comes out

00:35:12.580 against the source of power,

00:35:14.460 the zero carbon source

00:35:15.920 of power

00:35:16.240 that provides 40%

00:35:17.320 of the electricity

00:35:17.920 in her own country.

00:35:19.720 When our allies

00:35:21.220 in Germany

00:35:21.780 have been speaking out

00:35:22.740 to stop Germany

00:35:23.760 from shutting down

00:35:24.440 its last six nuclear reactors,

00:35:26.500 reached out to her

00:35:27.180 to get her to say something

00:35:27.880 that she wouldn't do it.

00:35:29.420 So the problem is

00:35:30.580 solving the problem

00:35:31.440 gets in the way

00:35:32.200 of the alarmism.

00:35:33.400 The alarmism isn't just,

00:35:35.300 I think journalists

00:35:36.220 and others misunderstand

00:35:37.440 the alarmism.

00:35:38.860 They think it's a tactic

00:35:39.920 to achieve some end.

00:35:41.260 And so one of the things

00:35:42.020 I would get from journalists

00:35:43.760 is they would say,

00:35:44.600 come on,

00:35:44.920 Michael,

00:35:45.160 don't you think

00:35:45.580 that it's important

00:35:46.160 to exaggerate climate change

00:35:48.500 a little bit

00:35:48.900 in order to get action?

00:35:49.760 Well, first of all,

00:35:50.400 there's no evidence

00:35:51.100 that exaggerating

00:35:51.920 the problem

00:35:52.320 gets more action.

00:35:53.520 Yeah, the answer

00:35:54.040 to that is no.

00:35:55.840 Let's not lie, okay?

00:35:57.800 I don't care

00:35:58.440 what the reason is here.

00:35:59.600 No lying,

00:36:00.900 especially about

00:36:01.520 something important.

00:36:02.700 I mean, it's notable

00:36:03.280 that it comes from journalists

00:36:04.440 who have become

00:36:05.520 propagandists, effectively.

00:36:07.980 And so the alarmism

00:36:09.220 is the goal.

00:36:10.500 Like, the goal

00:36:11.180 is the alarmism.

00:36:12.260 Yeah, well, it,

00:36:13.000 okay, so let's,

00:36:14.320 okay, so let's

00:36:15.280 dig down here

00:36:16.180 in a little bit.

00:36:16.940 And so part

00:36:19.280 of what Nietzsche

00:36:19.940 predicted was

00:36:20.820 that the death

00:36:21.820 of God,

00:36:22.400 what the death

00:36:22.880 of God meant,

00:36:23.660 what he described

00:36:24.760 and predicted was

00:36:25.660 that the death

00:36:26.680 of God meant

00:36:27.340 the collapse

00:36:28.100 of the highest

00:36:28.880 unifying value.

00:36:30.700 Okay, so it's

00:36:31.500 become pretty evident

00:36:32.360 to me that

00:36:33.060 we literally

00:36:34.620 perceive the world

00:36:35.980 through a hierarchy

00:36:36.760 of value,

00:36:37.280 and we certainly

00:36:38.300 organize our social

00:36:39.380 communities

00:36:40.060 inside a hierarchy

00:36:41.760 of value.

00:36:42.320 And there has to be

00:36:43.080 something at the top

00:36:43.980 to unite us.

00:36:44.820 Now, it isn't obvious

00:36:45.640 what should be

00:36:46.160 at the top.

00:36:46.800 In fact, it's so

00:36:47.520 not obvious

00:36:48.140 that we probably

00:36:49.020 can only think

00:36:49.980 about that

00:36:50.580 in images.

00:36:51.880 We're not

00:36:52.340 philosophically astute

00:36:53.580 enough to actually

00:36:54.420 conceptualize it.

00:36:55.880 And a lot of the

00:36:56.440 religious enterprise

00:36:57.240 is the attempt

00:36:58.180 to conceptualize

00:36:59.100 that thing at the top.

00:37:00.560 Now, let's say

00:37:01.220 it dies because

00:37:02.060 it's God

00:37:02.620 and it got too abstract.

00:37:04.260 Mircea Eliade,

00:37:05.120 the historian of religion,

00:37:06.280 said that that happened

00:37:07.220 many times in our history,

00:37:08.660 that the top value

00:37:09.720 got so abstract

00:37:10.660 it got disembodied

00:37:11.700 and people didn't

00:37:12.600 know what it was

00:37:13.140 anymore or how to

00:37:13.780 act it out

00:37:14.240 or what it meant

00:37:14.840 and so it floated

00:37:15.620 away and then

00:37:16.380 collapse into

00:37:17.820 competing claims

00:37:20.060 about what should

00:37:21.280 be the highest value.

00:37:23.180 Well, let's say

00:37:23.840 diversity,

00:37:25.420 equity,

00:37:27.820 compassion.

00:37:28.820 Well, why shouldn't

00:37:29.560 compassion be

00:37:30.340 the highest value?

00:37:31.440 Well, you know,

00:37:32.680 that's a reasonable

00:37:33.480 thing to argue about.

00:37:34.620 I think there's

00:37:35.720 some credibility

00:37:36.740 in the claim

00:37:37.360 that love should

00:37:38.040 be the highest value,

00:37:39.820 perhaps.

00:37:40.340 There's truth

00:37:40.920 and beauty,

00:37:41.480 many other issues.

00:37:43.200 Okay, so

00:37:43.740 the highest value

00:37:45.080 collapse,

00:37:45.640 we're not united

00:37:46.300 anymore.

00:37:46.840 Well, then we're

00:37:47.320 motivated to argue

00:37:48.360 about what the

00:37:49.080 highest value

00:37:49.640 should be.

00:37:50.660 And since it's

00:37:51.260 about the highest

00:37:51.940 value now,

00:37:52.760 now I have an idea

00:37:53.900 it's saving the

00:37:54.700 environment,

00:37:55.140 that's the highest

00:37:55.720 value.

00:37:56.960 Well, when you

00:37:57.680 attack that,

00:37:58.560 then you attack

00:37:59.500 my claim to

00:38:00.480 embody the

00:38:01.680 highest ideal.

00:38:03.460 And so you

00:38:03.920 threaten me

00:38:04.680 psychologically,

00:38:05.500 because that's

00:38:05.920 where I found

00:38:06.520 some refuge

00:38:07.220 and some ethical

00:38:08.640 guidance.

00:38:09.580 and so I'm

00:38:11.240 not going to

00:38:11.680 listen to your

00:38:12.220 practical solutions

00:38:13.200 either.

00:38:13.700 And then I

00:38:14.040 haven't examined

00:38:14.760 what other

00:38:15.280 motivations I

00:38:16.180 might have,

00:38:16.840 like, well,

00:38:17.460 this anti-capitalism

00:38:18.580 issue, that's a

00:38:19.440 terrible contamination

00:38:20.860 for the environmentalist

00:38:22.200 movement.

00:38:23.300 So, because you're

00:38:24.660 just not going to

00:38:25.240 solve both of those

00:38:26.040 problems at the

00:38:26.760 same time.

00:38:27.240 You want to

00:38:27.640 dispense with

00:38:28.480 capitalism,

00:38:29.580 invent an entire

00:38:30.400 new economic

00:38:31.060 system and save

00:38:32.400 the planet.

00:38:32.900 part of the

00:38:36.100 problem is that

00:38:36.480 they're not

00:38:36.740 actually sincere

00:38:37.540 about it.

00:38:38.100 So they would

00:38:38.560 suggest nature

00:38:39.280 is the highest

00:38:39.880 value.

00:38:40.500 But when you

00:38:40.820 say, okay,

00:38:41.780 well, here's

00:38:42.060 what you could

00:38:42.420 do to save

00:38:42.980 nature,

00:38:44.240 fertilizer,

00:38:45.140 irrigation,

00:38:45.760 and tractors

00:38:46.260 for poor

00:38:46.680 countries,

00:38:47.120 so they can

00:38:47.800 take the

00:38:48.400 pressure off

00:38:48.860 the forests,

00:38:49.460 which is where

00:38:49.820 the gorillas

00:38:50.740 and the nature

00:38:51.300 is, using

00:38:52.720 oil rather than

00:38:53.760 whale oil to

00:38:54.680 save the whales,

00:38:55.520 and using nuclear

00:38:56.240 power and natural

00:38:56.900 gas.

00:38:57.380 No, no, they

00:38:57.860 don't want to

00:38:58.160 do any of those

00:38:58.780 things.

00:38:59.720 So there is a

00:39:00.280 nihilism there

00:39:01.180 in the sense

00:39:01.640 that the goal

00:39:02.760 is power

00:39:03.620 itself.

00:39:04.700 No, there's

00:39:05.020 also no such

00:39:05.840 thing as

00:39:06.300 nature.

00:39:07.140 Like, think

00:39:07.600 about that.

00:39:08.300 It's like when

00:39:09.240 you refer to

00:39:10.040 France as an

00:39:12.480 entity, as a

00:39:13.280 person, so

00:39:14.440 you're personifying

00:39:15.380 it, or maybe

00:39:16.040 you're deifying

00:39:16.760 it to some

00:39:17.380 degree.

00:39:18.220 Well, that's

00:39:18.660 what happens

00:39:19.160 with nature.

00:39:20.020 It's like,

00:39:20.480 nature, what

00:39:21.380 is that exactly?

00:39:22.500 Well, everyone

00:39:23.200 knows it's like

00:39:24.180 an old growth

00:39:24.940 forest or

00:39:25.520 something.

00:39:25.920 There's some

00:39:26.320 vague set of

00:39:27.440 images, but

00:39:28.160 nature, conceptualized

00:39:30.440 in that manner,

00:39:31.080 is actually

00:39:31.560 a deity of

00:39:32.940 sorts, an

00:39:33.840 unexamined

00:39:34.500 deity, and

00:39:35.180 who God only

00:39:36.080 knows what it

00:39:36.720 means.

00:39:37.120 I mean, you

00:39:37.680 look at what

00:39:38.260 happened in

00:39:38.600 Nazi Germany

00:39:39.260 before the

00:39:39.860 Nazis took

00:39:40.440 power, because

00:39:41.280 they were

00:39:41.520 allied pretty

00:39:42.000 tightly with

00:39:42.520 certain kinds

00:39:43.040 of environmentalist

00:39:43.960 thinking.

00:39:44.660 Purity, for

00:39:45.560 example, very

00:39:46.800 big pushback

00:39:48.000 against invasive

00:39:48.900 species, for

00:39:50.040 example, which

00:39:50.660 is quite

00:39:50.940 interesting.

00:39:51.940 It's like, well,

00:39:52.680 there is this

00:39:53.320 worship of

00:39:54.080 whatever it is

00:39:54.820 that nature

00:39:55.360 signifies, and

00:39:56.180 symbolically it

00:39:57.680 signifies something

00:39:58.580 like, well, the

00:39:59.920 maternal as put

00:40:01.480 against the

00:40:02.100 patriarchal, so

00:40:03.360 that's in there.

00:40:04.240 The warm embrace

00:40:05.540 of mother, that's

00:40:07.000 all in that

00:40:07.480 symbolic realm.

00:40:08.460 There's a great

00:40:08.900 book about that

00:40:09.660 called The Great

00:40:10.340 Mother by Eric

00:40:11.560 Neumann.

00:40:12.040 Best book ever

00:40:12.840 written on that

00:40:13.440 in the 1950s, an

00:40:14.540 absolute classic, and

00:40:15.560 it outlines the

00:40:16.300 entire domain of

00:40:17.560 symbolism of the

00:40:18.440 positive feminine.

00:40:19.780 And so you do

00:40:20.420 see this religious

00:40:21.240 struggle between

00:40:22.160 those who are now

00:40:23.820 advocates of the

00:40:24.900 positive feminine,

00:40:25.760 feminine, and

00:40:26.920 detractors of the

00:40:28.180 negative masculine.

00:40:29.540 But it's very

00:40:30.000 unbalanced, you

00:40:30.860 know, because

00:40:31.180 there's a negative

00:40:31.780 feminine and there's

00:40:32.640 a positive masculine

00:40:33.660 as well.

00:40:34.500 So we're all

00:40:35.320 tangled up in that.

00:40:36.240 We don't

00:40:36.480 understand it.

00:40:37.900 I mean, one of

00:40:38.380 the interesting

00:40:38.880 shifts that's

00:40:39.560 occurred even in

00:40:40.360 my own career as

00:40:41.640 an environmentalist

00:40:42.560 is that all of

00:40:43.920 the stuff from

00:40:44.520 the ecotopia, the

00:40:46.100 utopianism, the

00:40:47.240 green utopianism, the

00:40:48.620 renewal, I mean, the

00:40:49.840 harmony with nature,

00:40:51.120 the kind of we're

00:40:51.560 all going to live in

00:40:52.220 these small self

00:40:53.020 sustaining kind of

00:40:53.820 anarchist

00:40:54.340 communities, the

00:40:55.260 Ewok village sort

00:40:56.500 of picture, that's

00:40:57.820 gone now.

00:40:58.680 I mean, Greta

00:40:59.060 Thunberg actively

00:41:00.080 says that that's

00:41:00.960 not, they're just,

00:41:02.200 they literally will

00:41:02.780 say now, we're just

00:41:04.040 trying to prevent it

00:41:05.020 from being as

00:41:05.880 terrible.

00:41:06.520 We're trying to

00:41:06.880 make it less

00:41:07.480 terrible.

00:41:08.580 So the utopianism,

00:41:09.980 it's still there.

00:41:11.740 I'm not saying it's

00:41:12.500 totally gone.

00:41:13.460 You certainly see

00:41:14.060 with renewables, the

00:41:15.180 picture of renewables

00:41:16.120 is somehow harmonizing

00:41:17.120 us with the natural

00:41:17.740 world, but it's

00:41:18.700 nothing like what it

00:41:19.560 was in the 70s.

00:41:20.920 Nothing like Earth

00:41:21.580 Day was actually

00:41:22.220 mostly positive.

00:41:23.380 I have a lot of

00:41:23.740 criticism of Earth

00:41:24.440 Day, but it was

00:41:25.220 a mostly positive

00:41:26.100 picture.

00:41:27.120 So what's striking

00:41:27.740 to me is the

00:41:28.380 disappearance of even

00:41:29.320 that positive

00:41:29.960 picture from

00:41:30.840 apocalyptic

00:41:31.720 environmentalism.

00:41:32.720 I wouldn't have

00:41:33.500 predicted that

00:41:34.820 apocalyptic

00:41:35.240 environmentalism could

00:41:36.340 sustain itself with

00:41:37.780 such a single

00:41:38.560 polarity without

00:41:39.900 this much more

00:41:40.720 positive, romantic

00:41:42.200 utopianism, which

00:41:43.820 was really even

00:41:44.640 there, it was

00:41:45.840 there 15 years

00:41:46.840 ago, 20 years

00:41:47.640 ago, but it's

00:41:48.160 somehow gone.

00:41:49.000 So you don't get

00:41:49.560 that picture from

00:41:50.500 Greta Thunberg.

00:41:51.480 Well, depression

00:41:52.820 can be all

00:41:54.140 consuming, you

00:41:55.020 know, and

00:41:56.240 another thing

00:41:58.040 Jung pointed out

00:41:58.860 very blatantly, he

00:42:00.140 said, well, what's

00:42:01.300 really going to

00:42:01.920 threaten us, he

00:42:02.500 wrote about this in

00:42:03.540 the 1950s, is

00:42:05.500 unexamined psychic

00:42:07.100 epidemics, and he

00:42:08.540 meant psychological

00:42:09.260 epidemics, and their

00:42:10.760 effect on the

00:42:11.380 political structure,

00:42:12.120 because he thought,

00:42:12.900 well, we've become

00:42:13.500 the most powerful

00:42:14.380 force on the

00:42:15.020 planet, and now

00:42:16.200 our unrecognized

00:42:17.360 psychological, what

00:42:20.520 would you call

00:42:21.000 them, our

00:42:22.820 illnesses is good

00:42:23.760 enough, they're

00:42:25.540 going to manifest

00:42:26.020 themselves in all

00:42:26.820 sorts of ways that

00:42:27.480 are going to be

00:42:27.980 extraordinarily

00:42:28.420 dangerous, given

00:42:29.340 our power, and

00:42:30.280 so.

00:42:30.980 You know, you

00:42:31.580 grow crops, you

00:42:33.420 use up land for a

00:42:34.520 year to grow crops,

00:42:35.400 and then to process

00:42:36.040 them, and then to

00:42:36.700 turn them into fuel,

00:42:37.900 when you can just

00:42:38.400 get fuel straight out

00:42:39.320 of the earth, and

00:42:39.940 much cheaper, much

00:42:40.740 more, and much

00:42:42.920 better quality that

00:42:43.900 doesn't degrade the

00:42:44.580 car, and that

00:42:45.740 doesn't destroy the

00:42:46.420 soil, and as I

00:42:48.880 was studying that,

00:42:50.020 I was, on the one

00:42:51.080 hand, I was struck

00:42:52.540 by the impossible

00:42:54.140 complexity of the

00:42:55.080 question, and then

00:42:56.240 on the other hand, I

00:42:57.660 was noticing the

00:42:58.620 inescapable conclusion

00:43:00.800 that everything that

00:43:02.620 they're trying to do

00:43:03.760 here is just making

00:43:04.600 things worse.

00:43:06.100 In fact, you know,

00:43:07.180 the idea was that

00:43:08.260 we're going to save

00:43:08.960 the earth from

00:43:09.800 climate change by

00:43:11.000 replacing fossil fuels

00:43:13.680 with ethanol and

00:43:15.580 biodiesel, and

00:43:16.420 but the reality was

00:43:17.740 that you were

00:43:18.120 chopping down the

00:43:19.260 Amazon and

00:43:20.380 Indonesian palm

00:43:22.120 forests, and to

00:43:24.160 turn them into

00:43:24.920 sterile farming

00:43:27.640 land, the Midwest

00:43:29.220 and the Mississippi

00:43:30.500 Valley, or over the

00:43:31.460 U.S., was

00:43:32.460 essentially degraded

00:43:33.460 from all of its

00:43:34.060 soil, and then the

00:43:35.580 fertilizer that is

00:43:37.360 just running off from

00:43:38.160 the Mississippi is

00:43:38.860 causing all these

00:43:39.560 enormous damage to

00:43:40.700 the Gulf of Mexico.

00:43:41.500 it's insane how much

00:43:44.920 damage is being done

00:43:46.020 from this attempt to

00:43:47.640 sort of centrally plan

00:43:48.680 things from above, and

00:43:50.460 Hayek has a saying

00:43:52.080 where he says, you

00:43:52.540 know, we used to

00:43:53.120 suffer from problems, we

00:43:54.200 now suffer from

00:43:54.960 solutions.

00:43:56.160 And this...

00:43:56.660 So let me ask you

00:43:57.660 about that.

00:43:58.280 Like, look, I've been

00:43:59.120 struck by exactly this

00:44:00.660 problem, right?

00:44:01.460 This is the problem of

00:44:02.380 unintended consequences

00:44:03.640 and the irreducible

00:44:05.800 complexity of things.

00:44:07.000 So, like, we can talk

00:44:08.500 about climate change, the

00:44:09.900 problem of climate

00:44:10.940 change, but there

00:44:11.880 isn't...

00:44:12.820 Those words are

00:44:13.800 unbelievably deceiving

00:44:15.500 because there isn't a

00:44:17.760 problem of climate

00:44:18.920 change.

00:44:19.540 There's 150,000 problems

00:44:22.840 of climate change, and

00:44:24.200 every single one of

00:44:25.420 those is an unbelievably

00:44:26.820 difficult problem, and

00:44:28.740 the solutions to those

00:44:29.940 problems could well

00:44:31.220 exist in terrible

00:44:32.200 contradiction to one

00:44:33.160 another.

00:44:34.300 And so, but you get

00:44:35.000 deluded, you think, well,

00:44:36.200 climate change, well, I

00:44:37.140 can understand that.

00:44:38.060 The climate, that's

00:44:39.120 easy to say.

00:44:39.760 I must be able to

00:44:40.580 conceptualize that.

00:44:41.740 Of course, you can't.

00:44:43.580 And then it hides the

00:44:46.040 fact that it hides this

00:44:47.500 understructure of

00:44:48.920 complexity.

00:44:49.580 Now, you got a glimpse

00:44:50.500 of that, and that

00:44:51.280 instilled in you this

00:44:54.140 resistance to this fatal

00:44:55.440 conceit.

00:44:56.060 It instilled in you some

00:44:57.100 humility.

00:44:58.100 Why doesn't that happen

00:44:59.220 to other people?

00:45:00.320 And, you know, there's

00:45:01.660 lots of things that we're

00:45:02.500 not doing that we're

00:45:03.140 doing that we could

00:45:03.560 do that you also

00:45:04.640 touch on.

00:45:05.740 One of the things

00:45:06.660 that strikes me as

00:45:08.920 somewhat catastrophic

00:45:10.740 is the tragic

00:45:13.120 underdevelopment of

00:45:14.080 nuclear power.

00:45:15.400 I've spoken with a

00:45:16.420 number of people about

00:45:18.060 the possibilities of

00:45:19.120 nuclear power, and you

00:45:20.460 point out in your, I

00:45:21.740 think it's in how

00:45:22.660 innovation works,

00:45:23.500 actually, that there

00:45:25.740 are no shortage of

00:45:27.540 plans for much smaller

00:45:29.720 nuclear reactors that

00:45:30.900 don't use water as the

00:45:32.120 primary coolant, that

00:45:33.120 use salt or some other

00:45:34.360 substance like that,

00:45:35.720 certain salts, and that

00:45:37.080 if they fail, they

00:45:40.020 actually shut down rather

00:45:41.300 than melting down.

00:45:43.160 And so that's another

00:45:45.340 example, I think, of

00:45:46.460 where the environmentalists,

00:45:49.540 which a broad brush, but

00:45:50.700 the environmentalists got

00:45:51.620 things seriously wrong and

00:45:52.780 are still doing so.

00:45:53.660 because as far as I can

00:45:54.880 tell, if you wanted, the

00:45:56.740 question is, what do you

00:45:57.620 want?

00:45:58.680 Like, if you want cheap

00:45:59.700 power of the sort that

00:46:01.060 would make people rich

00:46:02.280 enough to start caring

00:46:03.460 about the environment, it

00:46:04.620 seems to me that you

00:46:05.520 would be a nuclear power

00:46:06.580 supporter rather than a

00:46:07.800 supporter of solar or

00:46:09.000 wind power, which I think

00:46:10.720 only still accounts for

00:46:11.940 about 3% of total energy

00:46:13.760 needs.

00:46:15.360 That's true.

00:46:17.020 People say, oh, no, no,

00:46:18.280 that's wrong.

00:46:18.700 It's more than 10%.

00:46:19.500 You find they're referring

00:46:20.420 to electricity, but

00:46:21.320 electricity is only about

00:46:22.280 25% of energy at the

00:46:23.980 moment.

00:46:24.300 So it's around 3% comes

00:46:26.500 from solar and wind.

00:46:27.800 But the real problem with

00:46:30.100 solar and wind versus

00:46:31.100 nuclear, nuclear is still

00:46:32.860 horribly expensive because

00:46:34.100 of the way we've regulated

00:46:35.220 it and driven up its

00:46:36.060 price.

00:46:36.580 So our problem is how to

00:46:37.960 get the price down.

00:46:39.420 But the real problem is

00:46:40.700 the amount of land that

00:46:41.880 solar and wind use because

00:46:43.260 they're very low density

00:46:44.180 sources of energy.

00:46:45.580 So you have to have a lot

00:46:46.440 of land and you need more

00:46:47.840 land than there is.

00:46:49.000 You know, I mean, even

00:46:49.760 Canada has hardly got

00:46:50.780 enough land to produce

00:46:52.220 renewable energy for its

00:46:53.280 population.

00:46:55.240 And frankly, that's going

00:46:57.900 back to a medieval

00:46:58.820 economy where you had to

00:47:01.460 use the landscape to

00:47:02.560 produce energy.

00:47:03.200 You had to dam the rivers

00:47:04.300 and grow the crops that

00:47:07.240 you then and cut down

00:47:09.360 the forests, you know,

00:47:10.420 to burn.

00:47:11.380 Well, it's not obvious

00:47:12.540 either that wind farms

00:47:13.900 aren't a blight on the

00:47:15.020 landscape.

00:47:16.060 I'm afraid they are.

00:47:16.920 They're terrible for birds.

00:47:17.940 I'm a keen bird watcher.

00:47:18.940 I don't like the idea of

00:47:20.120 these birds being

00:47:21.940 devastated by onshore and

00:47:23.340 offshore wind.

00:47:24.920 And, you know, a wind farm

00:47:26.600 spends the first seven,

00:47:28.600 eight years of its life

00:47:29.500 earning back the energy that

00:47:31.520 went into building the wind

00:47:33.080 turbine.

00:47:34.320 You know, and only after

00:47:35.720 that is it net positive.

00:47:38.820 And even then, it's a huge

00:47:41.360 investment of capital that

00:47:43.640 could be doing something

00:47:44.540 else.

00:47:44.900 You know, the point about

00:47:45.560 energy is that it's the

00:47:46.760 master resource.

00:47:47.900 It's the thing that

00:47:48.500 everybody else needs to

00:47:49.640 use.

00:47:50.160 So you want to make it as

00:47:51.140 cheap and as reliable as

00:47:52.620 possible.

00:47:53.080 Yes, exactly.

00:47:53.700 And that should be said

00:47:54.520 over and over that if you

00:47:55.820 were, it seems to me that

00:47:57.440 if you were truly concerned

00:47:59.560 about the planetary fate,

00:48:02.860 let's say, or even more

00:48:04.220 precisely the fate of the

00:48:05.700 people on the planet, that

00:48:07.280 you would do everything you

00:48:08.440 could to drive the cost of

00:48:10.380 energy, including the

00:48:12.980 externalized costs to

00:48:14.300 something as low as

00:48:15.240 possible, because it's the

00:48:16.980 prerequisite for everything

00:48:18.220 else.

00:48:18.780 And starving people aren't,

00:48:20.620 we already talked about

00:48:21.840 this, but starving people

00:48:23.020 aren't good planetary

00:48:24.520 stewards.

00:48:25.960 So even if you...

00:48:26.960 But you'll notice, Jordan,

00:48:28.740 you and I have now slipped

00:48:29.780 into a slightly pessimistic

00:48:31.580 mood in that we're finding

00:48:34.660 the energy policies of our

00:48:35.920 countries rather stupid.

00:48:38.360 Yeah, it's probably because

00:48:39.180 we're old enough so that a

00:48:40.380 90-minute discussion starts to

00:48:41.980 become tiring.

00:48:42.800 Well, there's that.

00:48:45.860 You do promote CO2 emission

00:48:49.820 amelioration strategies in

00:48:51.760 false alarm.

00:48:53.080 And you did just point out

00:48:54.220 that although we should be

00:48:55.860 striving to make the poor

00:48:57.760 around the world as much less

00:48:59.360 poor as we possibly can, as

00:49:00.820 quickly as we can, so everyone

00:49:02.760 wins, including us, just like

00:49:06.100 Henry Ford won when he paid his

00:49:07.700 workers enough to buy his cars,

00:49:09.440 the cars they made, they are

00:49:12.820 going to increase their rate

00:49:15.120 of carbon dioxide emission.

00:49:17.100 And for some people, that

00:49:18.140 would be enough reason to

00:49:19.420 scrap the whole enrichment

00:49:21.420 process.

00:49:23.080 But you have some strategies

00:49:24.820 that you think are wise to

00:49:26.320 ameliorate the problems that

00:49:27.760 would be associated with that.

00:49:29.920 Yes.

00:49:30.280 So I talk about five different

00:49:32.260 solutions in the book.

00:49:33.380 So the first one is a carbon

00:49:35.600 tax.

00:49:36.680 Any economist would say, you

00:49:38.680 know, look, you have a

00:49:39.880 problem, you emit CO2, but you

00:49:41.860 don't actually take it into

00:49:43.200 consideration because it's

00:49:44.680 free to emit.

00:49:45.900 So that's how we think about

00:49:47.300 the polluted pays.

00:49:48.840 You put a price on carbon.

00:49:51.440 In principle, you should do

00:49:53.100 this across the world.

00:49:54.180 You should do it so that it

00:49:55.300 slowly rises with time.

00:49:56.960 It's the most efficient way to

00:49:58.500 deal with it.

00:49:59.180 There's two things we need to

00:50:00.480 recognize with it.

00:50:01.380 One is it turns out to be very,

00:50:03.280 very hard because it makes it

00:50:05.120 very explicit to people that

00:50:06.980 tackling global warming is

00:50:08.120 actually costly.

00:50:09.440 Secondly, we know that

00:50:10.840 politicians are just really,

00:50:12.380 really bad at doing

00:50:13.560 something for a long time,

00:50:15.240 very consistently across all

00:50:16.680 areas.

00:50:17.320 What politicians typically end

00:50:18.680 up doing is they'll put it

00:50:20.300 on some things.

00:50:21.240 So, you know, in many places

00:50:22.500 in Europe, for instance, you

00:50:23.620 have enormously high taxes on

00:50:25.600 cars and you have enormously

00:50:27.340 low taxes on people who are

00:50:30.260 good at lobbying their

00:50:32.280 governments for their

00:50:33.140 particular interests.

00:50:34.100 So, you know, greenhouse

00:50:35.420 gardeners, greenhouse

00:50:37.280 growers don't have to pay

00:50:40.080 the carbon tax because that

00:50:42.700 would make it really hard for

00:50:43.780 them to grow their, you know,

00:50:45.360 tomatoes or whatever.

00:50:46.600 And you can see how this

00:50:48.280 happens across a wide range

00:50:50.200 of areas.

00:50:50.820 So that's one part of the

00:50:53.260 problem.

00:50:53.720 The other part is that even if

00:50:55.180 you do this really, really well,

00:50:56.540 it'll only solve a smaller part

00:50:58.400 of the problem.

00:50:59.400 So you should do this.

00:51:00.880 We should focus on a carbon

00:51:02.820 tax, but we should also be

00:51:04.220 realistic.

00:51:04.860 This is not what's going to fix

00:51:06.460 climate change.

00:51:07.340 This will fix a smaller part of

00:51:09.780 climate change.

00:51:10.480 So it's part of the solution,

00:51:11.680 but it's not the most important

00:51:12.940 part.

00:51:13.600 The second part, and that's

00:51:15.260 where I think we actually have

00:51:16.580 the biggest opportunity, is

00:51:18.300 innovation.

00:51:19.600 So if you talk to Matt Ridley,

00:51:21.800 this is certainly also his

00:51:23.480 ballpark, but it's basically

00:51:25.520 recognizing that most things

00:51:27.420 that we've solved in this world

00:51:28.700 are about innovation.

00:51:30.620 So you rarely get people to

00:51:32.740 solve a problem by saying,

00:51:34.280 I'm sorry, could you please

00:51:35.440 not do all that cool stuff

00:51:37.320 that you like?

00:51:38.300 Could you please stop feeling

00:51:39.760 good about all of that?

00:51:41.100 That rarely works out as a

00:51:43.060 political strategy.

00:51:44.280 Unfortunately, that's typically

00:51:45.600 what we say.

00:51:46.340 Could you please not fly, not

00:51:47.760 eat meat, not do all these

00:51:49.640 things?

00:51:50.040 Could you please have it a

00:51:50.960 little hotter in the summer

00:51:52.400 and a little cooler in the

00:51:53.740 winter?

00:51:54.080 That's really, really hard to

00:51:55.580 sell to most people.

00:51:56.580 What you need is innovation.

00:52:00.360 And let me just give you an

00:52:01.600 example.

00:52:02.640 Back in the 1950s, Los Angeles

00:52:05.280 was one of the most polluted

00:52:06.800 places on the planet because

00:52:08.840 there are lots and lots of

00:52:09.820 cars and they have the special

00:52:11.600 sort of geographical notion

00:52:13.340 that just leaves all of the

00:52:14.560 pollution inside this little

00:52:15.920 basin of Los Angeles.

00:52:17.660 It was terrible to live there

00:52:19.980 in many ways.

00:52:21.440 And obviously, the simple

00:52:22.740 answer is to tell people most

00:52:24.580 of this came from cars.

00:52:25.540 So the simple answer would

00:52:27.020 be to say, stop driving your

00:52:28.840 car.

00:52:29.400 Of course, if you've ever met

00:52:30.880 someone from Los Angeles, you

00:52:32.140 know that that's not a

00:52:33.480 solution that's actually viable

00:52:34.760 to them.

00:52:35.360 Well, there aren't even any

00:52:36.400 sidewalks.

00:52:37.680 No, it's not really viable for

00:52:40.500 anyone in any city.

00:52:42.740 What did solve the problem was

00:52:44.520 the innovation of the

00:52:45.840 catalytic converter.

00:52:47.000 This little thing that cost

00:52:48.660 money, you put on the exhaust

00:52:50.260 pipe and then basically you have

00:52:52.040 much, much cleaner cars.

00:52:53.600 That made it possible for

00:52:55.940 people to keep their cars,

00:52:57.660 drive a lot and have much,

00:52:59.800 much cleaner air in Los

00:53:01.400 Angeles.

00:53:01.980 Now, I'm not saying everything

00:53:02.920 is perfect in Los Angeles and

00:53:04.400 there's still air pollution

00:53:05.520 problems, but it made it a lot

00:53:07.820 better for very little money.

00:53:10.000 That's the way that we need to

00:53:11.700 solve global warming.

00:53:12.920 If we could innovate the price of

00:53:15.340 green energy down below fossil

00:53:16.860 fuels and this green energy could

00:53:18.440 be nuclear, it could be fusion

00:53:20.300 energy, it could be solar or wind

00:53:22.500 with batteries, it could be lots

00:53:24.800 and other possible solutions.

00:53:27.160 If we could innovate one or a

00:53:28.880 few of these solutions down below

00:53:30.440 fossil fuels, everyone would

00:53:32.620 switch.

00:53:33.000 You wouldn't need sort of a Paris

00:53:35.280 Accord where you have to twist

00:53:36.760 everybody's arm.

00:53:38.240 Let me ask you about that for a

00:53:39.300 minute.

00:53:39.580 So it's not a straightforward matter

00:53:42.420 to set up governmental policy to

00:53:44.600 support innovation.

00:53:49.660 I mean, innovation is a very

00:53:50.580 abstract idea and I've seen much

00:53:53.580 evidence of failure at the

00:53:55.120 governmental level here in Canada

00:53:56.760 when governments have set out to

00:53:59.900 foster entrepreneurship and to

00:54:03.080 seed, you know, the development of

00:54:05.380 high-tech industry, for example.

00:54:07.160 Generally, it's a cataclysmic failure.

00:54:09.740 I mean, obviously, it's self-evident in

00:54:12.020 some sense that a good idea is good

00:54:15.320 because it solves a complicated

00:54:16.780 problem and the more good ideas we

00:54:18.600 have, the better.

00:54:19.940 But do you think that it's like it

00:54:22.140 seems on the face of it, unless you

00:54:24.460 dig down into the details, it seems

00:54:26.920 like hand-waving.

00:54:27.980 Obviously, we should have better ideas

00:54:30.080 to solve our problems.

00:54:31.980 But you, what do you think

00:54:33.960 constitute concrete, realistic,

00:54:37.440 evidence-based solutions to the

00:54:40.160 problem of fostering innovation?

00:54:42.460 Do you think it's actually possible

00:54:43.660 to set up policy that does that?

00:54:46.180 Yes.

00:54:46.800 So the short answer is yes.

00:54:48.320 And the reason is that what's

00:54:51.960 lacking is mostly long-term

00:54:55.020 investment.

00:54:56.140 So investment that will only generate

00:54:58.640 the solutions in 20, 30, 40 years.

00:55:01.240 Remember, this is why we invest a lot

00:55:03.840 of money in healthcare, basic research

00:55:08.140 that then eventually becomes research

00:55:10.640 that, you know, for instance,

00:55:11.960 pharmaceuticals can make into products

00:55:14.000 that they can make money off of.

00:55:15.940 There's always too little investment

00:55:19.280 societally in things that you can't

00:55:22.560 monetize right away.

00:55:24.500 So it's very hard to invest in things

00:55:26.660 that you can't monetize right away.

00:55:28.260 Yes.

00:55:28.640 If I make an innovation that then in

00:55:30.920 20 years, say, will help us generate

00:55:34.220 this enormously beneficial breakthrough.

00:55:36.660 Unfortunately, I won't get any money

00:55:38.700 because my patent has run out.

00:55:40.580 That's why most companies will not be

00:55:42.400 investing in these long-term development.

00:55:45.620 What happens is that you then have a

00:55:48.380 dearth of investment into these terms,

00:55:52.220 these sorts of long-term innovations,

00:55:55.600 unless you have the public invest in them.

00:55:58.040 And I'll get back to how we do that

00:55:59.660 smartly.

00:56:00.200 Okay.

00:56:00.960 But we do that in medical research

00:56:03.220 for many reasons.

00:56:04.280 People recognize this is part of the

00:56:06.460 place where we need to produce lots of

00:56:08.640 professors, lots of medical Nobel laureates.

00:56:11.220 And then, you know, eventually the

00:56:12.900 pharmaceuticals will take over and

00:56:14.900 actually make products out of this.

00:56:16.720 That's a great setup.

00:56:18.080 We don't do this in energy for a variety

00:56:20.820 of reasons.

00:56:21.740 It is one of the places where we spend

00:56:23.920 very, very little money, partly because

00:56:26.740 it doesn't feel like you're solving global

00:56:28.520 warming because you're not solving it right

00:56:30.040 now.

00:56:30.520 You're only solving it in 20 or 40 years.

00:56:32.940 That feels like you didn't really care.

00:56:35.020 But the reality is, this is the only way

00:56:37.920 that we're going to get these sorts of

00:56:39.800 long-term breakthroughs.

00:56:41.880 Now, one reason why politicians often

00:56:45.000 screw this up is because they are not

00:56:47.560 willing to invest in these long-term

00:56:49.280 investments.

00:56:50.240 They'll say, we want a, you know, a

00:56:52.340 Silicon Valley in Canada in three years.

00:56:55.560 Yeah.

00:56:56.100 That makes sense if you need to get

00:56:57.380 reelected in four, but you can't do that.

00:57:00.100 And, and so you shouldn't be trying to do

00:57:03.060 this in a very short-term way.

00:57:05.180 Another way is that you end up giving this

00:57:07.380 away to companies and companies, of

00:57:10.320 course, are just going to spend it on the

00:57:11.980 product that they were going to do next

00:57:13.560 year anyway.

00:57:14.740 But Hey, thanks for the money.

00:57:16.520 So the, the point here is you need to do

00:57:18.860 this carefully in a way that will generate

00:57:21.360 long-term innovation.

00:57:24.020 This is not easy.

00:57:25.200 You are going to waste a lot of money, but

00:57:27.340 we know that governments around the world

00:57:29.620 has done this in a variety of different

00:57:31.420 ways.

00:57:32.340 We know, for instance, the, you know, the

00:57:34.280 internet, the, the transistor, the

00:57:37.920 fracking in the U S there's a number of

00:57:41.540 places where you have been successful.

00:57:43.140 And all we have to do is to spend lots of

00:57:46.420 money.

00:57:46.600 And, and I'd love to talk more about

00:57:48.160 specifically how we should set this up, how

00:57:50.940 we should evaluate, and we should be

00:57:52.280 careful about it.

00:57:52.940 But fundamentally we should do this in a

00:57:55.240 way that we say we want to generate a lot

00:57:57.100 of knowledge that we believe in the long

00:57:58.640 run can deliver benefits that'll actually

00:58:01.860 help companies produce energy that will

00:58:04.640 be viable, but we are not going to try and

00:58:07.040 do this for the next three or five years.

00:58:08.820 So we've got to stop that panic mode and

00:58:11.420 start this long-term thinking.

00:58:13.480 We do have realistic knowledge about both

00:58:16.640 that we're investing very little compared to

00:58:18.500 typically, typically almost all other areas

00:58:21.080 and that more investment here would make it

00:58:24.240 more plausible that we would faster, get

00:58:27.000 cheaper green energy.

00:58:28.700 So, okay.

00:58:29.600 So in Canada, there's a medical research

00:58:31.520 council and a social sciences research

00:58:33.480 council and natural sciences and engineering

00:58:35.720 research council.

00:58:37.180 That might be a bit dated that information, but

00:58:39.600 essentially that's how it's been set up.

00:58:42.660 But there isn't an energy innovation research

00:58:46.000 council.

00:58:46.500 And, you know, I'm thinking that way because

00:58:50.240 I'm an academic and I've seen these granting

00:58:51.960 agencies, I've seen how they work and they're

00:58:54.600 set up to provide funds for basic research.

00:58:59.260 And something like that doesn't exist.

00:59:01.660 So, what's, why, why aren't we funding

00:59:06.740 research into energy, into, into the generation

00:59:12.440 of cheap and clean energy?

00:59:15.600 What's, what's, what's gotten in the way?

00:59:17.180 Every year, we want to spend it on solar panels

00:59:21.480 that makes us feel like we're doing something

00:59:23.420 right now.

00:59:24.700 The, the, the surprising thing is in 2015,

00:59:27.980 when all countries signed the Paris climate

00:59:32.020 agreement on the sidelines of that event, Obama

00:59:36.620 and 20 other global leaders, Bill Gates and lots

00:59:39.780 of billionaires actually signed another agreement

00:59:42.240 that I'm happy to say we were a tiny part of

00:59:44.980 pushing, which was, we're going to double our

00:59:48.180 investment into green energy research and

00:59:50.440 development.

00:59:51.380 So all countries both promised the thing that

00:59:54.360 you heard about, namely, we're going to cut our

00:59:56.360 carbon emissions, but they also promised to

00:59:59.000 double their green energy investment in five years.

01:00:03.600 So in 2020, they did quite a bit of the cutting

01:00:07.980 carbon emissions, they did nothing of the increase

01:00:11.920 spending in green energy R&D.

01:00:14.440 And I think fundamentally, because it doesn't feel

01:00:16.780 like a solution, it doesn't feel like something

01:00:18.720 urgent, it feels like something you can do next

01:00:20.980 year.

01:00:21.440 It feels like something that's nice to have, but

01:00:24.120 this, you know, putting up the solar panel is

01:00:26.120 urgent and we need to do it.

01:00:27.800 The reality is the over worry about global warming

01:00:31.680 that we have, because we're, you know, we have this

01:00:34.020 existential feel that this could be the end of the

01:00:36.240 world. Surprisingly, also not only is wrong, but it

01:00:39.880 also leads us down the wrong path, namely the path

01:00:42.680 where we say, let's do anything that just makes it

01:00:44.920 look like we're doing something next year, rather

01:00:47.980 than actually laying the groundwork for fixing this

01:00:51.020 problem. Now, obviously, and some people will say, well,

01:00:53.320 we should have done this 20 years ago. And yes, that

01:00:55.500 would be wonderful. We should have done that. But we

01:00:57.460 didn't, you know, it's sort of too late to do something

01:01:00.080 about what we should have done 20 years ago. But we can do

01:01:03.840 something about what we're going to spend our money on in

01:01:06.220 2021. And if you look, for instance, on Biden's proposal

01:01:09.580 to fix climate change, he's, he's, he's thinking about

01:01:13.020 spending $2 trillion, you'll probably not get to spend all

01:01:16.200 that money on a vast array of things, many of which are not

01:01:20.200 going to be very effective. But he's also saying he wants to

01:01:23.860 dramatically increase actually, I think probably too much, but

01:01:27.640 certainly a very, very large amount of increase in American

01:01:31.200 spending on R&D. This is what he should be focusing on. But I

01:01:35.500 do worry that he's going to end up having much more success

01:01:38.600 with all his other much less effective proposals, simply

01:01:41.780 because they are more glamorous.

01:01:44.160 All right, so you don't seem to be an admirer of the Paris

01:01:50.160 Accords. And so my sense of your argument is that the

01:01:56.800 proposals that are part of that accord are extremely expensive.

01:01:59.920 And they're not cost effective, especially when viewed in this

01:02:03.340 larger framework that encompasses a whole host of

01:02:06.760 problems instead of focusing just on climate change. And so

01:02:10.040 maybe if you don't mind, you could summarize your, could you

01:02:15.660 lay out your critique of the Paris Accords for for us?

01:02:19.860 Yes. So so two things. The Paris Agreement is really just an

01:02:24.020 extension of what we've been trying for the last 30 years and

01:02:26.580 failed to do the last 30 years. Namely, let's try to do

01:02:30.060 something that's really hard, that costs a lot of money, that

01:02:32.720 will have a little bit of impact in 100 years, and try and see if we

01:02:36.360 can't get everybody to do it. Not surprisingly, that's a really,

01:02:39.540 really hard thing to get to do what and to do what exactly so so

01:02:43.560 basically get Canada, get the US get Denmark, get everybody else to

01:02:47.840 cut their carbon emissions, which privately for them is going to be

01:02:51.700 costly, they have to, you know, reduce their use of cheap energy

01:02:56.140 and use a little bit more expensive energy, sometimes less reliable

01:03:00.380 energy. Basically, it puts a slight slower dampener on their economic

01:03:06.900 growth. That's always going to be hard. That's always going to be

01:03:10.160 unpopular. You're basically asking people, could you please pay some

01:03:13.460 more and use a little bit less? That's, that's a hard sell. Not

01:03:17.880 surprisingly, you do a little bit of it, you typically don't do a lot

01:03:21.540 of it, you don't live up to all of your promises. But even if you do,

01:03:25.220 so let's just take the Paris Agreement, even if everyone did

01:03:28.380 everything they promised to 2030, that would cut as much CO2 that if

01:03:33.960 you run it through a climate model, it would cut temperatures by

01:03:38.040 0.025 degrees centigrade by the end of the century. So literally

01:03:44.400 nothing, we wouldn't be able to measure magnitude of increase. So it's

01:03:49.020 about four degrees temperature rise, we've already seen one, so about

01:03:53.360 three, three degrees more. So this would be a trivial part of

01:03:58.200 reduction. Now it would be a reduction, it would mean we would have less

01:04:01.940 problems because global warming is a problem. So we estimate there

01:04:05.960 would be benefits. But there would also be huge costs because you'd

01:04:10.500 actually have to pay for this. So if you look at how much you're

01:04:14.300 going to pay, which is in the order of one to two trillion US dollars

01:04:18.020 per year in 2030, for every dollar spent, you will avoid climate

01:04:23.880 damages across the centuries worth about 11 cents. That's a very poor

01:04:29.300 way of spending money, paying a dollar and actually achieving 11 cents,

01:04:33.840 you could just have paid out the dollar and done, you know, almost 10

01:04:37.580 times as much good in the world. So the reality here is, the Paris

01:04:41.800 Agreement is a really well intentioned agreement, but it will fail just

01:04:45.520 like all the other agreements. So you know, Rio, Kyoto, and all the

01:04:50.380 other national policies that we've done, it'll mostly fail. But even if it

01:04:53.380 succeeded, it would be a very expensive way of achieving very

01:04:57.520 little. And this, of course, is the big problem of the climate

01:05:01.520 conversation, that because we're so worried, we've decided, yeah, we're not

01:05:04.380 worried. We've decided, yeah, we're not going to spend all that much

01:05:08.040 money on all these other problems in the world, tuberculosis, all this

01:05:10.920 other stuff. But we are going to spend one to two trillion dollars.

01:05:14.660 Remember, it's not going to bring us to the poorhouse, but it's a lot of

01:05:17.560 money. That's one to 2% of global GDP on something that will basically not

01:05:23.380 bias any measurable impact in 100 years. That's a bad deal. That's why we need

01:05:29.860 to do better. You know, every action has a cost. This is the thing about

01:05:33.740 how you learn from economics. Everything has a cost. Everything has an

01:05:36.300 opportunity cost. And people like to present this idea as if, you know,

01:05:39.780 there's an evil cabal of oil producers that are out there forcing our

01:05:43.960 governments to make our lives dependent on these oils. And what we need to do

01:05:48.520 is to just have the political will to transition to these more advanced forms

01:05:51.740 of energy that are going to save the planet. And it's just completely

01:05:55.000 ridiculous. Well, people don't understand. Like, people don't

01:05:58.840 understand things as simple as the fact that there's a finite amount of solar

01:06:02.300 energy that falls on a square yard of territory. At that basic level of

01:06:08.400 physics, it's just, well, the sun is an inexhaustible source of energy. It's like,

01:06:11.960 well, that's true. But practically speaking, that's not exactly the issue.

01:06:16.740 Exactly. Because what you need is the power. What you want is to convert that

01:06:19.360 high quantity of energy into high power, which is a lot of energy over a small,

01:06:23.400 short period of time. And to do that, this is really understanding that what

01:06:28.400 humans look for is not energy, because energy is everywhere. There's sun and

01:06:31.440 there's wind and all of that stuff. But being able to channel that in order to

01:06:35.720 use it in high power applications, that's what makes everything that we value

01:06:39.500 possible. That's what makes surviving the winter a breeze for the vast majority

01:06:44.300 of us. This is why we have our modern life. This is why we have transportation.

01:06:48.160 It's because we have high power. And the way that we've managed to secure high

01:06:51.920 power, the way that we've built our world, is modern hydrocarbons. And so the thing

01:06:57.080 that people who are afraid of carbon dioxide need to present is they need to make the case

01:07:03.540 that stopping hydrocarbons is going to have such a noticeable effect on the climate that

01:07:11.940 it outweighs the benefits of taking humanity back to the 1500s.

01:07:15.240 Yeah, they're not going to do that. Because you look at how this works out is that we're

01:07:21.180 trying to calculate the economic consequences of climate change and the economic consequences

01:07:26.640 of our interventions over this. This has to do with the time preference over, say, 50 to 100 years.

01:07:31.640 But the errors in your measurements and your predictions grow and grow and grow as you move

01:07:36.320 out decades into the future. It's that those justifications will never be forthcoming.

01:07:40.580 They're technically impossible. We talked about carbon tax and innovation. Innovation is crucial.

01:07:48.200 You should also focus on adaptation. It's sort of a naughty word in much of the conversation

01:07:54.700 in global warming. But very clearly, adaptation is going to be one of the big ways that we're

01:07:59.080 going to fix many of the problems. It's going to happen to a large extent simply because people

01:08:03.240 do that. If you're a farmer, you're going to plant later or earlier, depending on the climate

01:08:08.380 changes and eventually, you might plant something else. You should also look at geoengineering.

01:08:14.060 We talked about that very briefly. But basically, the idea of saying, if there were to be a really

01:08:19.500 catastrophic impact, geoengineering is basically a way of making sure that you can restore the

01:08:26.620 temperature of the earth very quickly at fairly low cost. We should not just go ahead with it,

01:08:33.420 but we should certainly be thinking about it. And that's all I'm going to say about this right now.

01:08:38.100 The last bit, and we also talked extensively about that, is to make sure that prosperity is also a

01:08:44.740 big solution to climate change. Most of the things you're impacted with, you're impacted with because

01:08:51.100 you're poor. If you're really poor, everything hits you hard, but climate hits you hard as well. If you're

01:08:57.600 rich, you're much, much less impacted. And so very clearly, the question is, do we want to help

01:09:03.620 Bangladesh a little bit by cutting carbon emissions and basically then leaving them poor? But hey,

01:09:10.140 at least sea levels rose this much less by the end of the century? Or would we rather make sure that we

01:09:16.380 actually leave Bangladesh much richer, which means that they'll be much better able to handle hurricanes,

01:09:22.180 that they'll be much better able to handle sea level rise and so on? There is a very strong basis of

01:09:28.100 evidence that shows that prosperity is actually much better for most countries, not just because

01:09:33.200 it's wonderful in all kinds of other ways. You can avoid your kids dying and make, get them better

01:09:37.420 education and all these other things, but also for climate. So those were the five points and innovation

01:09:43.180 is by far the most important thing. I just want to say one last thing about, you know, because my book is

01:09:49.780 very much, we've talked a lot about all the big problems in the world. The reason why I talk about

01:09:55.120 global warming is because it is the one thing that I, that I experienced most people actually

01:10:01.140 talking about all the time is this existential threat. This is the big thing that we should

01:10:05.780 all be concerned about. Certainly a lot of people, the UN Secretary General, many others are telling us

01:10:11.740 this is the top priority for humanity, because if this is going to eradicate all of us, surely this

01:10:18.940 should be the thing that we focus on. I think that that makes intellectual sense if it was true, but

01:10:25.800 that's not what the UN Climate Panel is telling us. It's not what the science is telling us. It tells us

01:10:31.140 this is a problem by no means the end of the world. And that is not only important because you can't

01:10:37.380 really get to all the other things we were talking about unless you stop believing this is the end of

01:10:43.220 the world. If this is the end of the world, you are going to set everything else aside. But also, of

01:10:48.160 course, it's the only way that you can actually get a better life. You know, when you see all these

01:10:53.220 kids being really worried about, am I going to have a future when I grow up? People believing literally

01:11:00.640 that humanity is going to end, that must be terrible. Now, if it was true, we should be telling

01:11:05.580 people, but it's not true. And therefore, being able to relieve yourself from that scare is also

01:11:13.280 really, really valuable on a personal level. So this book was written not just to make sure that you can

01:11:19.260 get rid of the scare, but also that you can start realizing this is a problem among many others. Now

01:11:24.180 let's think about how do we prioritize? And that's what I'm hoping this conversation will help us. So in a

01:11:30.620 sense, you could say, the false alarm book is the stepping stone to be able to have that, you know, more

01:11:36.040 general conversation, namely, what is it that the world should be prioritizing, if we're not scared

01:11:41.280 witless about global warming, but actually sees it, see it as it is a problem among many problems.

The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast - December 30, 2021

213. Don't Climate Panic - An Investigation into The Proposed Solutions to Climate Change

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