The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast - September 01, 2022


284. Superabundance: The Age of Plenty | Marian Tupy, Gale Pooley


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour and 57 minutes

Words per Minute

162.46507

Word Count

19,106

Sentence Count

1,109

Misogynist Sentences

7

Hate Speech Sentences

14


Summary

Marion Toopey and Gail Pooley talk about their new book, Super Abundance, The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet, 2022. It's the most complete opposite of any apocalyptic title you might ever envision. Marion has talked to me before, particularly about his book, 10 Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know, and many others you will find interesting. Gail is an associate professor of business management at Brigham Young University at Hawaii, and has taught economics and statistics at Al-Faisal University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the University of Idaho in Idaho. Both of them have published widely in the public domain as well as professionally in outlets like the Financial Times, the National Review, The National Post, The New York Times, The Financial Times and the National Post. They have also been published widely and professionally in publications like the NY Times, Time Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, and Forbes. And they are the co-author of the Simon-Abundance Index, which is a three-part, ten-part analysis of why, strangely enough, things seem to be a lot better than we think, and perhaps better than they ever were before. And although we're more concerned about it than we ever seem to have been before, and although we are more concerned than we've ever been before. Julian Simon's famous bet. And some freak out about it. In 1968, he wrote an extremely popular book, which sold millions of copies of a book called The Population Bomb . And some people thought that was going to go to the moon. and become a very terrifying monster. The man who brought this particular obsession or problem into the public sphere was Paul Ehrlich. That s still causing a terrifying language. We have become accustomed to a very scary word, and we have become very accustomed to the concept of a "Still causing Trouble, Still causing Trouble. by Julian Simon s "The Population Bomb." in 1968, which was a sort of "somewhere in the 1970s and 1980s. in which he wrote a book about how the population is still alive. . and some people are still causing trouble, and still is still causing Trouble . in a way that we can still be a problem, even though we ve become more worried than we used to be by the word "populous.


Transcript

00:00:00.960 Hey everyone, real quick before you skip, I want to talk to you about something serious and important.
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00:00:57.420 Hello everyone. I have with me today a guest I've had on before, Dr. Marion Toopey, and a new guest, his co-author at the moment of a new book called Super Abundance,
00:01:19.900 The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet, 2022.
00:01:27.900 It's the most complete opposite of any apocalyptic title you might ever envision.
00:01:33.080 Marion has talked to me before, particularly about his book, 10 Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know,
00:01:39.680 and many others you will find interesting. That was published in 2020.
00:01:42.600 Marion is the editor of humanprogress.org, which is a very good site, and I retweet them quite consistently.
00:01:50.340 He's a senior fellow at the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, and the co-author of the Simon Abundance Index,
00:01:57.580 which we will talk about to some degree today. He specializes in globalization, study of globalization,
00:02:04.840 and global well-being, and politics, and the economics of Europe and Southern Africa.
00:02:10.380 Dr. Gail Pooley is associate professor of business management at Brigham Young University at Hawaii.
00:02:17.600 He's taught economics and statistics at Al-Faisal University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
00:02:23.100 Brigham Young in Idaho, a Boise State University in the College of Idaho.
00:02:27.560 He earned his BBA in economics of Boise State, did graduate work at Montana State, completed his PhD at the University of Idaho.
00:02:34.960 He's been part of the development of the Simon Abundance Index as well, and as I said, is the co-author of this new book,
00:02:45.660 Super Abundance, which is a lot different than Apocalyptic Doom, as I pointed out.
00:02:50.960 Both of doctors, Tupi and Gail, have published widely in the public domain as well as professionally in outlets like the Financial Times,
00:03:00.100 the National Review, the particularly evil journal Quillette, Forbes, the American Spectator, the Washington Post, etc.
00:03:08.360 Any of your, what would you call them, traditional suspects or usual suspects.
00:03:13.580 So, anyways, we're going to talk about this new book today, Super Abundance, a three-part, ten-chapter analysis of why, strangely enough,
00:03:23.740 things seem to be a lot better than we think, and perhaps better than they ever were,
00:03:28.500 and although we're more concerned about it than we ever seem to have been before.
00:03:33.400 So, welcome, gentlemen. Thank you very much for agreeing to talk to me, and congratulations on your new book.
00:03:38.720 Thank you very much. I'm delighted to be with you.
00:03:40.380 Yeah, so let's start with Super Abundance.
00:03:45.740 I don't know whether to start with Julian Simon's famous bet.
00:03:50.080 That's not a, it's kind of a nice narrative entry point, eh?
00:03:54.000 I think that's right, yeah.
00:03:57.040 All right, well, so why don't you, why don't you outline for our listeners and viewers the nature of this famous bet,
00:04:02.780 why it was made and what its broader cultural significance was,
00:04:06.140 because it was really a watershed bet, I think, in many ways.
00:04:08.960 Well, so in the post-Second World War era, global population started to grow at a much faster rate than before,
00:04:18.760 partly because of a tremendous amount of medical and scientific knowledge that started to spread around the world.
00:04:27.840 Babies started to, you know, fewer babies started to die young, people started to grow older and so forth.
00:04:35.660 And some people started to freak out about it.
00:04:40.060 They thought that there was going to be too many people in the world, and consequently, we were going to run out of resources.
00:04:47.020 Prices of resources were going to go sky high, and there would be mass starvation.
00:04:51.220 Now, the man who brought this particular obsession or potential problem into the public sphere was Paul Ehrlich, who still is alive.
00:05:02.280 He's a biologist at Stanford University.
00:05:04.900 And in 1968-
00:05:06.440 Still causing trouble.
00:05:07.680 Still causing trouble.
00:05:08.680 Still, yeah.
00:05:09.480 And in 1968, he wrote an extremely popular book, which sold millions of copies, called The Population Bomb.
00:05:18.140 And The Population Bomb started in a sort of very terrifying language that we have become accustomed to from extreme environmentalists over the decades.
00:05:26.940 And he basically said, no matter what policy changes we are going to make now, in the 1970s, hundreds of millions of people are going to die due to starvation.
00:05:37.960 In fact, none of that happened.
00:05:39.620 Nonetheless, Paul Ehrlich's book, The Population Bomb, scared and scarred psychologically generations of people.
00:05:49.980 Movies had been made about how the world was going to run out of resources and end in a catastrophe.
00:05:55.840 One of the more famous ones was with Charlton Heston.
00:06:00.340 It was called Soylent Green.
00:06:02.620 And the reason why it's important is because Soylent Green, whilst it was filmed in 1974, was supposed to come to fruition in 2022, which is this year.
00:06:14.580 And the basic premise of the book was that the world was completely empty of food.
00:06:19.940 And so every time a person died, that person would be converted into biscuits called Soylent Green, which would be then fed to the people who stayed behind.
00:06:31.400 So, on the other side of the country.
00:06:34.200 So a lot of this, just to give some background to that, too, a lot of this was based on hypothetical biological thinking predicated on the work of Malthus.
00:06:43.540 And it's sort of a yeast or rat model of human existence.
00:06:46.940 So, if you have a colony of yeast and they have a finite medium that they're growing in, so a finite source of food, and you let the yeast multiply or let them, they provide them with the preconditions for the multiplication.
00:07:05.740 Their population will expand until they consume all the available resources, and then it will precipitously collapse in starvation.
00:07:14.000 And people tried similar, although less simple, experiments with rats showing similar behavior.
00:07:24.660 And then I would say documented similar phenomena in the field.
00:07:27.560 I mean, animals will overgraze, for example, if their herbivores will overgraze available cropland, if they're not kept in check, so to speak, by predators.
00:07:39.540 And biologists extrapolated from this and said that under all other things being equal, populations will expand until they consume more available resources than will sustain them.
00:07:52.420 And then they will tend to precipitously collapse.
00:07:54.740 And then that was applied to the human condition.
00:07:57.540 But the, as we see from the rest of your story, the economists objected to this.
00:08:03.020 Yes.
00:08:03.280 So, the view that you just described is particularly popular amongst biologists.
00:08:10.780 Economists don't think like that because they recognize that human beings are fundamentally different from rats or deer or rabbits or whatever else.
00:08:19.140 Or yeast.
00:08:19.300 Or yeast.
00:08:20.080 We have this thing called intelligence and the ability to apply these little gray cells in order to come up with innovations which can get around the problem of scarcity.
00:08:30.600 So, on the other side of the country, early, as I said, was in Stanford in California.
00:08:34.780 On the other side of the country at the University of Maryland, there was an economist called Julian Simon, a very, very intelligent and very interesting man who looked at the data, actually, and started noticing that things were becoming cheaper, which means that they were becoming less scarce, even though population of the world continued to increase.
00:08:57.800 Therefore, in 1980, he made a bet with Paul Orlick.
00:09:04.560 And the bet was on the price of five commodities.
00:09:07.360 Let me see if I can remember them.
00:09:09.080 The bet was on the price of chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten.
00:09:15.120 And the deal was as such.
00:09:16.920 If over the next 10 years, between 1980 and 1990, the price of these five metals became more expensive, they became scarcer, Simon would pay Ehrlich.
00:09:30.900 But if they became cheaper, then Ehrlich would pay Simon.
00:09:34.940 Well, the bet came to an end in 1990, September 29th, 1990.
00:09:41.440 And the inflation-adjusted price of these five metals dropped by 36%, in spite of the fact that the population of the world rose by almost a billion.
00:09:53.220 And in spite of the fact that they both agreed that that would be the basket they would bet on.
00:09:57.920 Actually, Ehrlich picked the basket.
00:10:01.360 Yes.
00:10:02.200 Simon was generous enough.
00:10:05.360 He said, Paul Orlick, pick any five commodities or any five commodities you want.
00:10:11.060 And those were the ones that Orlick picked.
00:10:13.660 Hmm.
00:10:14.520 Well, what's so interesting about that, I think?
00:10:16.660 Well, there's many, many things that are interesting about it.
00:10:18.520 But one of the things that's so interesting is that you might infer from that that in order to put your notion forward as a scientific hypothesis, you actually have to bind it with a time frame.
00:10:31.320 You can't just say, well, at some point in the future, the population is going to expand to the point where we consume all our resources.
00:10:37.620 It's like, well, what do you mean?
00:10:39.280 You mean a year, 10 years, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 150,000, a million?
00:10:45.300 You mean you get to have the whole time frame for you to be right?
00:10:48.780 Or no, are you accurate enough in your knowledge so that you can actually pin it down, let's say, within a decade or something, some reasonable fraction of a human life, at least?
00:10:59.060 And so, because, I mean, the biologists who, when they responded to that bet, because it was quite the cultural moment in some sense that Simon won, the rejoinder from the environmentalist doom types was, well, we were off by a few decades, and that's why we lost.
00:11:16.740 It isn't that we're wrong.
00:11:18.020 It's just that these things are complex and our time frame was wrong.
00:11:21.140 It's like, yeah, if your time frame is wrong, then your theory is wrong.
00:11:25.560 And if you can't place a time frame around it, then your theory is so weak that you should just be quiet about it.
00:11:30.880 And I think the same thing applies to all this climate doom as well.
00:11:34.700 It's like, specify it.
00:11:36.560 Well, we can't.
00:11:37.240 It's too complex.
00:11:37.920 Well, then, quit terrifying everyone.
00:11:40.600 You know, another thing that was interesting about it is, you know, as professors, we get to say all kinds of things and never be really held accountable for it.
00:11:49.560 And so, putting money on the table, you know, also added this really interesting dimension to it.
00:11:55.120 It's not only is it framed in time, it's framed with a bet.
00:11:59.160 So, got to hold this guy accountable for his claim.
00:12:04.280 Some skin in the game.
00:12:06.180 Well, and then there was a reputational issue, too, right?
00:12:08.300 Because it was a very public bet.
00:12:10.020 And it wasn't so famous when they first made it.
00:12:13.980 But by the time it came around for the bet to be settled, and I would say this is particularly true of Julian Simon, who we should talk about for a moment.
00:12:23.720 Paul Ehrlich is a pretty smart biologist.
00:12:26.420 But Julian Simon was a genius.
00:12:28.960 And so, that's useful for people to know, too.
00:12:31.200 I mean, he was a truly outstanding mind.
00:12:33.200 And for him to be optimistic in the face of what was almost a universal pessimism in the late 60s and early 70s around, well, the possibility of nuclear war and certainly the possibility of overpopulation and environmental degradation.
00:12:49.660 And all of that was, that apocalyptic vision was what everyone who paraded themselves as informed and, you know, properly skeptically pessimistic, they're all parading that as a moral virtue.
00:13:04.600 And for Simon to come out and say, no, you guys just, it's like Elon Musk now coming out and talking about how, you know, one of the biggest problems is going to beset us in the next 100 years is depopulation, which I happen to believe is true.
00:13:17.680 I also think he's dead on with his criticisms about the UN's population predictions.
00:13:23.860 I think the UN predictions are, there's no evidence they're accurate at all.
00:13:27.200 And even if they are, we can handle the 9 to 10 billion people that we'll probably peek out at.
00:13:33.940 United Nations has been historically quite, their numbers have not stood the test of time.
00:13:44.620 There are other demographers in the world who have done a better job at predicting where the world population is going to be.
00:13:51.640 And the latest bit on this is in Lancet, which predicts that by the year 2100, we are either going to have 9 billion people in the world, we are currently on 8, or 7 billion people in the world.
00:14:07.720 So, you know, it's perfectly possible at the end of this century, there will be as many people in the world as there are now.
00:14:13.060 So, obviously, the further out in the future you go, the less clear those predictions are.
00:14:19.640 But there is another thing that I wanted to mention about Julian Simon, because you expressed an interest in learning a little more about him.
00:14:24.980 It wasn't just that he was right, but he was facing a lot of personal invective from the great and the good.
00:14:31.520 But he was regularly called an idiot and a fool who didn't know what Ehrlich famously said that to explain biology to Simon was like trying to explain the oil market to a cranberry, all sorts of other things.
00:14:48.540 Ehrlich continued to receive throughout his life a variety of very prestigious academic prizes.
00:14:53.780 Only recently, he was invited to Vatican, Vatican of all places, to give a talk on the danger of overpopulation.
00:15:00.420 That was like three years ago.
00:15:02.200 So, in spite of being wrong...
00:15:04.460 Well, you know, you don't want to have too many souls to save.
00:15:07.480 So, in spite of being wrong all the time, he just keeps on being highly, highly revered.
00:15:13.680 But there's one more thing I do want to say, and then I think I will hand it to Gail, because Gail will do a good job of explaining why we thought that we could improve on the bet.
00:15:26.220 But the key that I want to talk about is that in spite of the fact that Ehrlich lost this very visible and very humiliating wager with Simon, the idea of overpopulation never went anywhere.
00:15:45.160 Yes, environmental movement is incredibly complex.
00:15:47.220 There are people who are extremely smart and well-intentioned, like, for example, Lomborg or Steven Pinker.
00:15:56.900 They mean well.
00:15:58.020 They are interested in technological solutions to climate problems, and I count myself in that kind of sort of universe.
00:16:06.520 But there is an extremist environmentalist subtext or subgroup in environmentalism who have these apocalyptic obsessions.
00:16:18.480 So, for example, and this gets translated into the movies which billions of people see around the world.
00:16:24.840 In our book, we talk about how with every decade since the 1950s, the number of apocalyptic movies has been actually increasing, which is the exact opposite of what is happening on Earth.
00:16:37.340 The Earth is getting richer, healthier.
00:16:39.880 In some ways, there is even environmental improvement, but there are more and more movies about how the world is going to end in some sort of a catastrophic, catastrophic apocalypse.
00:16:50.140 And one of them is a very, very famous one, and that was the Infinity War, which was seen by something like Every Fifth American.
00:16:58.020 And that movie plot is about a villain who has these Malthusian or Ehrlichian ideas.
00:17:08.340 You have to kill half a population of the universe in order so that the other half can survive.
00:17:15.160 And so, this is not an academic debate.
00:17:17.680 People around the world are being fed the diet of Malthusianism almost on a daily basis.
00:17:24.260 You know, what was interesting, one of the things that was interesting about that Marvel movie, and interesting about the Marvel pantheon in general, is that, well, Thanos is a derivation of Thanatos, so he's a figure of death.
00:17:36.300 And in the Marvel movie, and you might have expected this, given our pop culture, in the Marvel movie, Thanos is clearly a villain.
00:17:45.960 And that's interesting, because even though there is this apocalyptic tone to the movie, he is a villain.
00:17:51.320 His theory that half of everything has to die in order for the other half to thrive is put forward.
00:17:58.220 And even in a devil's advocate sort of way, but it's clear that he's an enemy.
00:18:02.920 And one of the things that was so interesting about the Marvel pantheon is that, if you look at it quite carefully, it's not politically correct, and it's not apocalyptic.
00:18:12.460 The movie, for example, Scarlett Johansson's last movie, I think it's The Black Widow, she is an unbelievably politically incorrect character.
00:18:23.080 She's the real antithesis of this apocalyptic, doomsaying, hyper-agreeable culture that has produced the sort of movies that you described, like Soylent Green.
00:18:32.940 And I thought that was extremely interesting, because I think there is a dawning recognition at the level of public fantasy that these purveyors of doom are not only wrong, but perhaps murderously wrong.
00:18:46.820 And that we've been led down the garden path in an inappropriate way for about four decades or five decades.
00:18:52.940 And then one more thing to say about that, you guys can tell me what you think of this, is that I think part of the reason, too, that we see this apocalyptic vision popping up so much now, isn't so much because the apocalypse is nigh, in a sense, in that we're doomed to it, is that things are changing so fast, that in some sense, the destruction of everything we know is always upon us.
00:19:19.500 Because, like, are you willing to make a prediction about what your life is going to be like 10 years in the future?
00:19:25.680 In many regards, I mean, technology has changed our lives so much, and that's happening so quickly that it's unparalleled.
00:19:33.760 And so I think we all feel like, well, we're on the edge of precipitous change, and it might be terrible, but, well, your point is, it might also be extremely good, and that we could direct it that way.
00:19:44.120 Yeah, I would just add to that, that we're on this cusp of exponential creative destruction.
00:19:50.760 Right.
00:19:51.360 Because we're having this destruction, but we're also having this creativity that's actually on a steeper curve than the destructive curve.
00:19:59.820 Well, that's what I'm hoping, too.
00:20:01.480 You know, when I go out of my lectures, I'm trying to tell people is, look, we've got everything we could possibly want in front of us if we are smart enough to reach out and take it.
00:20:09.480 If we want it, so much of this environmentalism that you've described, and I think your work is such a good antidote to, doesn't seem to me to be pro-flourishing.
00:20:21.140 There's an anti-human element to it, a hatred of humanity that I think is deeply pathological and resentful.
00:20:29.260 And I think the fact that Ehrlich's ideas about population excess are still so popularly trumpeted forward as the only ethical attitude towards the problem of humanity is an indication of the depth of that.
00:20:47.840 Well, some of it's malevolence, as far as I'm concerned.
00:20:50.260 Like, I've heard environmentalists say, many of them say, you know, there are too many people on the planet.
00:20:54.980 The planet would be better off if there's only a billion people.
00:20:59.440 Human beings are a cancer on the face of the Earth.
00:21:02.080 You know, we're like a virus that multiplies unchecked.
00:21:04.440 I mean, Jesus, guys.
00:21:05.780 Seriously, man.
00:21:06.840 Watch your language.
00:21:08.540 You know?
00:21:09.280 Yeah.
00:21:09.760 Interesting that you bring that up because it was really this 1973.
00:21:13.300 Ehrlich comes out with his book in 68.
00:21:16.360 73, they come out with limits to growth, as Club of Rome does.
00:21:20.520 And interesting that 73 was also the year that Thanos was introduced in the comic book.
00:21:26.400 So the culture was kind of doing this thing.
00:21:29.700 And but Club of Rome, they come out with this argument that says, look, population is going to do this and we're all going to collapse.
00:21:37.040 Well, population didn't do this.
00:21:39.020 And then so they shifted and said, well, we seem to be OK.
00:21:43.400 It's pollution that's going to do this and we're going to collapse.
00:21:46.400 And then pollution goes the other way.
00:21:48.640 And they say, well, we're going to redefine our model now to it's not pollution.
00:21:53.680 We're going to define CO2 as pollution.
00:21:56.920 So they keep redefining the model to be able to predict this collapse.
00:22:00.520 And it's like, well, what are you guys going to do here?
00:22:05.160 We can't.
00:22:06.040 Human population continues to do this.
00:22:08.320 And we life expectancy and abundance continues to grow.
00:22:12.240 And in spite of your modeling, well, you know, we've got a psychological problem on our hands here, I think, to some degree.
00:22:18.400 It might be that, you know, human beings are unique.
00:22:22.340 And we could speak biologically here, I suppose, in that we really do.
00:22:26.300 We're the only creatures that really do apprehend our own finitude.
00:22:29.520 You know, and so in some sense, we are obsessed and possessed by the apocalyptic vision because we all know that we're going to die, each of us, and that all the people we know are going to die and that everything we know is going to come to an end.
00:22:44.780 And so that's there as a reality.
00:22:48.400 And then the question is, well, that's a fundamental reality.
00:22:50.700 And we try to stave it off.
00:22:51.920 We try to stabilize things and we try to make our economies productive and sustainable so that we don't die.
00:22:58.520 But we know that we're fighting a losing battle.
00:23:01.740 And it isn't, we don't understand how that fundamental knowledge of finitude is an endless source of the generation of apocalyptic fantasies or how to manage that in any real sense.
00:23:14.820 You know, because it is the case that we, well, we certainly do face limits personally, limits of mortality.
00:23:22.320 Limits of time, limits of time.
00:23:24.040 Limits of time.
00:23:25.020 Exactly.
00:23:26.140 Which is the one resource which is actually getting scarcer.
00:23:29.900 Right, right, right.
00:23:31.120 Well, as we live, I mean, we obviously live longer, but it is the one scare resource.
00:23:35.920 We know that it will come to an end, yeah.
00:23:38.820 Right, and there's only a limit, there's a real limit to what we can do to stave that off.
00:23:43.120 Even if we generate a tremendous amount of money while we expend our time, right?
00:23:48.920 So each second becomes more valuable in some sense as you age.
00:23:53.360 And that, and the concept of time is really fundamental to our work because, well, I'll hand it over to,
00:24:01.120 to Gail, but essentially we were dissatisfied with the, with, with the wager between, between Ehrlich and Simon.
00:24:10.340 We thought we could do something a little more interesting and a little different.
00:24:16.020 And I think Gail will be able to explain it better than I can.
00:24:20.820 So in Simon's first book, he talks about, or one of his first books, he talks about looking at the price of things, the money price of things.
00:24:29.340 And the problem with money is money loses its value over time, typically.
00:24:34.300 So you have to make this adjustment back to real dollars versus nominal dollars.
00:24:39.820 But he also mentioned this interesting thing.
00:24:42.060 He said, you know, we can compare it to time.
00:24:44.900 And he said, well, how much money can you earn in an hour of time and then take that and compare it to the price of things?
00:24:51.560 So he talked about the idea of time prices.
00:24:53.820 So that kind of piqued our interest a little bit.
00:24:56.740 And then there was also a Nobel prize winning economist, William Nordhaus, who did this really interesting study about the price of light.
00:25:05.520 And he said, let's look at what it costs you to earn the money to buy one hour's worth of light.
00:25:11.920 And you can measure light in lumens.
00:25:13.980 And so he does this study and this light is just doing this.
00:25:17.920 Yeah, well, you said in your book that that it's so amazing to think of this is that one electric 100 watt electric light bulb is the equivalent in terms of light generation of 17,000 candles.
00:25:34.540 I mean, that's a lot of candles.
00:25:36.120 And then you made some comment, too, about how much labor in terms of time it took to earn that many candles.
00:25:43.560 And you can imagine even now, 17,000 candles, especially if they're made of beeswax or something like that, that's not inexpensive.
00:25:52.600 Yeah.
00:25:52.880 So, I mean, if you go back to 18, you know, we go back to 1800 and it took three, you had to work three hours to earn the money to buy one hour worth of light.
00:26:03.120 And so the time price was three hours for one hour.
00:26:05.940 Today, it's like 0.16 seconds of time to earn that same light.
00:26:12.840 Well, we want to point out what this means, too, because prior to the dawn of inexpensive light, and also this obtains in many places in the world now, the fact that there was no light seriously delimited the number of hours you could spend working.
00:26:29.140 And so when you're buying light, you're not just buying light, you're buying time to be productive.
00:26:34.920 You can't read without light, you can't write without light, you can't, well, it's hard for people to imagine this because we're never plagued by darkness ever anymore, ever.
00:26:47.360 And, you know, maybe we suffer from the absence of the night sky, and I think we do, but light is, light is basically free.
00:26:55.520 And that means that we have many more hours per day.
00:26:58.860 You know, the other thing I, that really struck me in that regard, it wasn't your work, though, but many people have commented on this, is the absolutely revolutionary consequence of inventing eyeglasses for people.
00:27:12.640 Because many people in medieval Europe, obviously across the world, had to do close work, like tailors, and when they're, when they lost their ability to see close, like you do when you need reading glasses, they couldn't work anymore.
00:27:27.320 And so this simple, simple technological innovation of glasses, you know, it added 15 years of productivity to people's lives.
00:27:35.620 And then light, well, that adds, what, four hours of productivity per day, and it's free.
00:27:41.480 We see, we, we, one of the things I really like about your, your work is that you help me understand and communicate to people just how rich we are.
00:27:50.520 We're so rich, we don't even know how rich we are.
00:27:53.920 Well, that's right.
00:27:55.700 I think, you know, you talked about light and productivity, which is, of course, very important.
00:28:01.160 But if you didn't have light, you didn't have anything else.
00:28:03.820 I mean, there was no entertainment.
00:28:05.980 Obviously, there was nothing on TV, there were no TVs.
00:28:08.500 As you said, you couldn't, you couldn't read.
00:28:12.560 Most people lived in absolute poverty, so they really couldn't afford a candle.
00:28:17.820 And therefore, once the sun set, you just went to bed.
00:28:22.680 In the, yeah, in the cold.
00:28:24.260 And so, and so, Gail mentioned the concept of time price.
00:28:29.020 And I think it's very important that we explain it in greater depth.
00:28:32.300 So, here's the deal.
00:28:34.400 You know, we, we, we buy things with money, but we really pay for them with our time.
00:28:39.360 So, there are money prices and there are time prices.
00:28:42.880 And it's pretty, it's pretty easy to convert a money price to a time price.
00:28:46.960 You just take the money price and you divide it by hourly income.
00:28:50.320 So, for example, if something costs $20 and you're earning $20 an hour, the price of that is one hour.
00:28:58.280 So, money prices are expressed in dollars and cents.
00:29:01.360 Time prices are expressed in hours and minutes.
00:29:04.440 And this offers, you know, a number of features.
00:29:07.020 First of all, we go to this universal standard of time.
00:29:10.720 And it's not, it's not, you can't counterfeit it.
00:29:15.140 You can't inflate it.
00:29:16.100 It's this constant flow.
00:29:17.980 So, everybody recognizes what an hour is.
00:29:20.240 We have this kind of perfect equality of time.
00:29:22.840 We get 24 hours a day.
00:29:24.600 Yeah.
00:29:25.160 And that's independent of any real sociocultural differences.
00:29:29.020 It's because, well, we all suffer from the same degree of finitude in some sense.
00:29:33.440 And so, yeah, and I'm amazed.
00:29:36.060 Well, I can't believe this.
00:29:38.160 I know that it's a very tricky business for any academic enterprise to get its fundamental units of measurement correct.
00:29:47.440 It's of absolutely crucial importance that that be done.
00:29:50.620 Like the periodic table of the elements for chemists, for example.
00:29:54.020 And maybe the five-factor personality model for psychologists.
00:29:58.380 And IQ as well.
00:30:00.140 These fundamental measurements.
00:30:01.580 And so, but it is kind of surprising to me that you economist types didn't figure this out until recently.
00:30:08.500 Like what was in the way?
00:30:10.940 Well, Julian Simon had kind of figured it out.
00:30:13.180 And actually, Adam Smith talked about this in his Wealth of Nations.
00:30:18.200 He talked about the fact that we have to buy things with our labor, which is really our time.
00:30:23.480 And, you know, the other feature of time, I think we've got, what, seven universal standards of measurements.
00:30:29.140 Six of those seven all go back to time.
00:30:31.980 So, we're trying to move the thinking back to this universal standard of time.
00:30:37.760 So, once you've established the time price, then it's the comparison of that time price over time.
00:30:43.540 You know, it cost me one hour a year ago.
00:30:46.100 Today, it only cost me 45 minutes.
00:30:48.620 You know, so the percentage change in that time price is really what we should look at.
00:30:54.100 And then it's the ratios that we look at.
00:30:59.360 You know, if something goes 75% off, for example, it's like, okay, 75% off.
00:31:06.920 That's interesting.
00:31:07.940 That means for the time that it used to take to earn one unit, now I get four.
00:31:14.220 So, going from, it's a 75% decrease, but you think about it the other way.
00:31:18.940 It's actually a 300% increase in your abundance because I used to get one, now I get four.
00:31:25.380 Right, right.
00:31:25.680 And there's a moral claim.
00:31:26.740 There's a moral claim here, too, that we should be very careful to make explicit, I would say,
00:31:30.820 which is if we've accepted the proposition that something is worth having,
00:31:36.880 it's worth, it's useful and justifiable to assume that if we can produce that more efficiently,
00:31:44.480 that's good, right?
00:31:46.120 Those two things seem to go right together.
00:31:48.100 So, because we, I think when you're trying to nail down something like fundamental measurement,
00:31:52.620 you have to nail it down all the way to the ground.
00:31:54.320 If we agree that there are good things to have, so we have good and have as agreements,
00:31:59.360 then we're also going to agree that if we can get good things to have with less expenditure
00:32:05.380 of the most fundamental resource, that also constitutes a good.
00:32:09.200 And that would be partly because, well, there are lots of good things we like and need to
00:32:14.480 have.
00:32:14.840 And so, if we have more time, we can get more of them, too.
00:32:17.600 So, there's really no way of subverting this claim, I would say, if you accept the initial
00:32:23.220 proposition that there are good things that, you know, we can and should have.
00:32:27.560 Yeah, exactly.
00:32:28.780 So, once we kind of got this time price figured out and said, you know, we should take all of
00:32:33.540 these prices that we have and convert them to time prices and then see what happens.
00:32:39.200 So, we go back to Simon's original bet.
00:32:41.920 We're kind of inspired by that.
00:32:43.520 And one of the critiques of Simon's work was, you know, you were just lucky, Simon, because
00:32:49.060 it was only for 10 years and it was only for five commodities.
00:32:53.600 And so, we said, well, why don't we expand it from five to 50?
00:32:57.340 So, we went beyond just these metals and we went to energy.
00:33:01.400 We looked at food.
00:33:02.700 We looked at materials.
00:33:03.980 We looked at other metals.
00:33:04.900 So, we developed this data set of 50 commodities that are tracked by, the World Bank tracks
00:33:12.080 these prices.
00:33:13.560 So, we could go back in time and look at all other data.
00:33:18.400 Okay.
00:33:18.580 So, I got to ask you a political question real quick about that.
00:33:22.620 So, you know, I'm obsessed with measurement because I was a psychometrician when I used to
00:33:28.480 be a university professor when that was still possible.
00:33:30.680 And I've always been skeptical of the measures that politicians use to assess the economy,
00:33:38.120 both unemployment.
00:33:39.060 I'm skeptical of that measure.
00:33:40.240 I'm very skeptical of inflation measures, not in and of themselves, but I'm not convinced
00:33:44.760 that those are sufficiently valid measures, reliable and valid measures to base our entire
00:33:49.940 economic analysis on.
00:33:51.280 So, I'm wondering is if you convert the cost to cost in time and standardize it in that
00:34:00.140 manner, can you then rank order countries?
00:34:03.860 If you take, let's say, a 50 commodity random sample of fundamental goods, can you then chart
00:34:12.340 a progress graph of countries' relative move towards prosperity?
00:34:18.220 And you do that year by year, can you derive yearly indexes?
00:34:21.880 And is that a good replacement for something like inflation, the inflation rate assessments?
00:34:28.240 Take a look at page 142.
00:34:30.500 We've got 42 countries that we've done that with.
00:34:35.580 So, we go from Argentina to the United States and look at all of these different countries and
00:34:41.960 measure what their income is doing, their hourly income is doing with these commodity prices.
00:34:47.580 I would go back to the World Bank commodity prices.
00:34:52.180 You know, those are public prices.
00:34:53.820 So, there's no disagreement that these were the prices of those commodities.
00:34:58.300 And then the next question is, what do you use for the denominator below?
00:35:02.680 You can use a country's local reported average hourly income.
00:35:07.780 In this case, we're trying to get a number that we could use as a proxy for the whole planet.
00:35:14.020 And what we finally came up with is, let's look at GDP per capita per hour.
00:35:20.600 So, how much GDP is generated on the planet per hour worked?
00:35:25.740 And let's use that as an index or a proxy for how productive people are getting.
00:35:30.620 Because we also note that when innovation occurs, it shows up both in lower prices and higher incomes.
00:35:37.420 So, it's important that time prices are actually capturing both of those values because it's the ratio of those two numbers.
00:35:46.800 So, time prices actually contain more information than just a money price.
00:35:51.360 So, this graph or this graph, these data, this data that you talked about on page 142, you show, for example, that change in resource time price in China, it's negative 97.5%.
00:36:05.620 And China's at the top of the list.
00:36:07.340 And so, there's a tremendous number of developing countries that are leaping forward.
00:36:11.980 So, but it's, I would also suspect, maybe this is wrong, but tell me if it's right or wrong.
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00:37:54.580 There must be low-hanging fruit to some degree when a country does emerge from its agrarian past, let's say, a non-industrial past, into an industrial present, and free up its markets and move into the modern capitalist age, free market age.
00:38:16.440 And so, China, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Ireland does extraordinarily well.
00:38:22.400 Is there any way of adjusting that for baseline prosperity?
00:38:25.560 I mean, the Americans have done as well as the Chinese, but they started off a lot better, let's say, in the last century.
00:38:31.360 Right.
00:38:32.020 And you can make those comparisons.
00:38:33.840 You can put them side by side.
00:38:35.140 I think that the interesting thing for us is, what are the slopes doing in these different countries?
00:38:39.380 I mean, yeah, the United States has got this lower rate of growth, but all of these other countries are catching up at such a rapid rate that there's none of these countries that are actually going the other direction.
00:38:53.800 Yeah, it's something, eh?
00:38:55.280 Yeah, it really is.
00:38:56.840 Now, the key with China is to remember that China and India, China has done spectacularly well over the last 40 years, and so has India.
00:39:12.120 It's very important to remember that those two countries were actually the most populous countries at the time when they were super, super poor.
00:39:20.800 In other words, if you looked at China in 1960 or India in 1960, they already had mass populations, but they were super poor.
00:39:29.160 So what happens?
00:39:30.660 Super abundance is not simply an outcome of adding more people to the world, although that's important.
00:39:37.200 It's people times freedom will give you very high rates of economic growth.
00:39:41.560 Now, I'm not suggesting for a second that China is a free society, but what I am saying…
00:39:47.180 Well, it's comparatively free compared to what it was.
00:39:50.740 It is much freer than what it was when Mao killed 45 million of his fellow citizens.
00:39:57.540 Another thing, another reason why this research is kind of important is because Gail mentioned the Club for Growth report.
00:40:05.520 Club for Growth was read by the Chinese Communist Party in the 1970s.
00:40:10.660 Yeah, how delightful.
00:40:12.180 How delightful.
00:40:13.520 Between 1980 and 2015, they had this one China policy in place.
00:40:19.360 The Chinese government is very boastful and very proud that they have prevented or extinguished 400 million birds in China between 1980 and 2018.
00:40:31.800 China, as well as world, would be much more prosperous societies if that hadn't happened.
00:40:38.980 But it was a spectacular, spectacular shot in the foot, as you would expect from a communist regime.
00:40:45.540 Because what they are left with now is a very unstable population pyramid, whereby the population is getting old and there are not enough workers to support the economy of the size that they currently have.
00:41:00.800 So they're going to…
00:41:01.320 And they also have a plethora of men, which they're going to pay for, too.
00:41:05.440 That's a recipe for social instability.
00:41:07.680 In like 2016 it was, maybe it was 2008, the sex ratio peaked at 120 Chinese men per 100 women, which means that 20% of men in China could not hope to find a Chinese wife.
00:41:29.160 And there is very good evidence suggesting that men who do not have a partner are much more likely to engage in criminal activities.
00:41:38.080 Yes, there's very good evidence for that.
00:41:40.720 So one of the really killer things about this graph on page 142 is you have a column there entitled years to double personal resource abundance.
00:41:50.900 And so then by your criteria, it's how many years does it take for you to have to work half as long to get the same resource, whatever that is.
00:42:00.360 And this is stunning.
00:42:01.700 This is 1980 to 2018.
00:42:03.600 So basically a 40-year period.
00:42:05.320 Over a 40-year period, China's average years to double personal resource abundance was seven.
00:42:13.600 Unbelievable.
00:42:14.460 But even countries like you list India, it's 15.
00:42:18.120 New Zealand, 19.
00:42:19.900 Finland, 20.
00:42:21.220 So that's really certainly within the confines of, well, that's four doublings in the average life, man.
00:42:27.620 It's deadly.
00:42:28.940 And this is even among developed countries.
00:42:31.560 Yeah, it's really…
00:42:32.320 And the average was 20 years.
00:42:36.140 Now, some people may say that doubling of personal abundance.
00:42:41.920 Now, we are not talking about, you know, we are talking about resources.
00:42:45.480 Resources include things like beef, rice, coffee, tea, milk, oranges, bananas, whatever.
00:42:52.080 Now, some people may say that doubling of abundance every 20 years is too slow.
00:42:58.000 But this is where at least a cursory understanding of history is very important.
00:43:03.780 People need to understand that Homo sapiens has been around for 300,000 years.
00:43:07.680 And our standard of living was stagnant for tens or even hundreds of thousands of years.
00:43:13.940 Nothing has changed.
00:43:15.280 Exactly the same amount of food and resources that your parents could buy, you would be able to buy, your children would buy.
00:43:22.280 So, by historical standards, the kind of appreciation in abundance, the kind of doubling of abundance of 20 years is actually, well, it's close to a miracle.
00:43:32.940 It is a miracle.
00:43:34.620 It's unparalleled.
00:43:35.540 And it is really important to drive that point home.
00:43:37.920 I mean, people think that…
00:43:41.400 They tend to think of human…
00:43:42.940 Of change in human societies as the norm.
00:43:45.380 And that is in some sense true compared to animal societies, which just don't change at all.
00:43:50.960 I mean, a grizzly now is exactly the same as a grizzly was 60,000 years ago for all intents and purposes.
00:43:56.640 But, you know, even in very technologically advanced cultures like ancient Egypt, which was a much faster developing country, let's say, society than the typical Stone Age society,
00:44:13.700 there were periods of time in the Egyptian archaeological record that exceed 1,000 years where there is zero evidence of any technological change whatsoever.
00:44:24.180 And so, there are…
00:44:26.820 And then if you go back, let's say, to so-called Stone Age civilizations, there's good anthropological evidence for the persistence of some rituals,
00:44:37.960 which left a certain archaeological mark, persistence of those rituals unchanged over a 20,000-year period.
00:44:47.200 So, the rule in biological systems is lack of change at the cultural level.
00:44:52.400 And even among human societies, generally speaking, rates of change are unbelievably slow.
00:44:58.820 And so, for people to say, well, you know, doubling every 20 years isn't fast enough, it's like, well, A, compared to what?
00:45:04.400 And the other thing to think about is, well, how fast a doubling do you think we can stand?
00:45:09.840 You know, because some of that is…
00:45:12.040 I know you think, well, oh no, we're getting prosperous too fast.
00:45:15.820 Isn't that a problem?
00:45:17.020 If that's a problem you need to have, if you have to have a problem.
00:45:20.000 But it is challenging, you know, I mean, because our society is changing so rapidly now, it's actually hard for people to keep up with it.
00:45:28.060 You know, they get superannuated in some sense.
00:45:30.560 So, in any case, it's a remarkable, it's a remarkable set of observations.
00:45:34.740 And it's very difficult to look at this without being really sad, I would say, in some sense, that we had to swallow so much apocalyptic nonsense for so many decades to the detriment of so many.
00:45:54.460 When the evidence is starkly clear that more people in freer markets solves all the problems that everybody wants to solve faster than anything we've ever produced by a large margin.
00:46:06.920 I should like to point out, of course, that whilst I'm cautiously or perhaps rationally optimistic about the future, nothing in what Gail and I write should be understood as a guarantee that things will go on improving in the future at the rates that we have seen before.
00:46:26.460 You know, in our conclusion of the book, we identify three critical problems to maintaining superabundant growth.
00:46:33.100 By the way, we should probably at some point define what we mean by superabundance.
00:46:38.700 But the three very important components of how we can ensure that superabundance continues.
00:46:44.940 Well, first of all, we cannot have the population collapse, which is something that Elon Musk continues to warn against.
00:46:54.140 Now, in the book, we don't say that, you know, we don't take a position on what is the optimal size of the world's population.
00:47:01.920 But what we do say is that parents, when they are making decisions about having babies, that those decisions are not made in a vacuum.
00:47:11.620 When parents are being told that bringing an additional child into the society is a crime, that you are hurting the planet and the rest of your species.
00:47:20.700 If that's what parents think, then, of course, that will have an impact on their fecundity.
00:47:28.140 And in fact, we now have studies that have been conducted or other opinion polls that have been conducted over the last four years.
00:47:35.000 And they show that people do take environmental apocalyptic warnings into account when making decisions about where to have babies or not.
00:47:45.300 The second problem that we need to avoid if we are going to remain superabundant is, of course, freedom of speech.
00:47:52.980 Freedom of speech is absolutely fundamental.
00:47:55.000 It is not only fundamental on a personal level.
00:47:59.040 If you cannot speak freely, you cannot think freely, you cannot express yourself freely, but on a societal level.
00:48:06.500 If you are following an idea of the cliff like lemmings do, you know, it could be a bad idea.
00:48:14.240 If it's a bad idea, then you are going to end up like going off the cliff, right?
00:48:18.680 That was the problem in communist societies.
00:48:21.860 I grew up under communism, part of my life.
00:48:24.340 And because we didn't have freedom of speech, people couldn't point out that the society was actually stagnating and in some ways retrogressing.
00:48:32.360 And we couldn't come up with a way of resolving our problems and get on a better path.
00:48:39.400 And that is why speech codes and banning of expression of ideas, no matter how offensive we may find them, after all, heliocentrism was offensive at one point in the past.
00:48:52.500 But if we prevent these ideas from being aired, then we don't know really.
00:48:56.800 Some of them may be very good and we should remember them.
00:49:00.000 And the third, we should learn from them.
00:49:02.220 And the third potential problem for superabundance is, of course, if the market gets destroyed through overregulation or socialization.
00:49:11.920 And the reason for that is very simple.
00:49:14.040 Markets provide us with signals about what's valuable and what's not.
00:49:20.440 Markets allow us to see which innovations are going to be useful and which innovations are going to be useless.
00:49:26.460 This is what's called the price mechanism.
00:49:28.240 In a free market economy, prices tell you exactly what you need more of, like baby formula in the United States or, you know, oil and gas when it goes up, that you need to produce more of that.
00:49:39.740 But if government...
00:49:41.120 Right, and that's a signal we should point out because it's so important for people to understand.
00:49:45.640 You know, you drew a connection between free speech and free thought.
00:49:50.980 And people often think of free speech as a hedonistic right in some sense.
00:49:55.540 I and every other Yahoo gets to say exactly what we want whenever we want.
00:50:00.060 And maybe that's for our own, you know, enjoyment.
00:50:02.640 But that's not it exactly.
00:50:04.360 Because there isn't any difference between speech and thought in a technical sense.
00:50:09.100 Much of the thought that we undertake, we undertake in discussions like this, where we're exchanging ideas and modifying them and communicating.
00:50:16.920 And that free speech is thought.
00:50:19.040 And then the question is, well, what's thought?
00:50:22.980 And the answer to that is, well, that's how we abstractly adapt to the horizon of the future before we actually adapt to it.
00:50:30.500 So we try out new ideas that might match what's coming at us that's unpredictable in this virtual space that's characterized by the exchange of thought.
00:50:40.800 So that we don't have to die by making the wrong decisions when we're actually forced to act.
00:50:46.640 And I would say we can make that a biological claim.
00:50:50.400 Because the prefrontal cortex, which is the home of abstract thought, grew out of the motor cortex.
00:50:56.640 And its purpose is to run simulations of the world and simulations of potential action patterns in the world before you implement them.
00:51:05.620 So that you can weed out the deadly ones and not implement them.
00:51:09.180 And so we actually evolved an entire part of our brain, which we use socially, to kill bad ideas before they kill us.
00:51:17.380 And so then if you interfere with free speech, you don't get to do that.
00:51:21.060 And free speech is associated with free markets in this crucial way that you described.
00:51:26.980 Because it is very difficult to know what's going to be valuable next as things change.
00:51:33.140 And the way we do that is we subject that computation to a massive cognitive instrument, which is the free market.
00:51:41.760 Hundreds of millions of people are making decisions all the time, right on the edge of change.
00:51:47.240 And if we know the price of something, we're as caught up with the future as we can possibly be.
00:51:53.180 And so if we interfere with that at our great peril, because that is the cognitive mechanism that keeps us updated.
00:51:59.460 I would simply add to that, and then I will hand it over to Gail,
00:52:02.520 is that free speech and free markets are learning mechanisms.
00:52:07.260 When you say something which is stupid, somebody else can say, well, that actually doesn't work.
00:52:11.820 And if you are smart, you are going to internalize that comment.
00:52:15.760 And you are never going to express that view again.
00:52:18.720 You are going to internalize the truth.
00:52:21.260 And the market is a learning mechanism as well, provided that it's free, so it can indicate what works and what doesn't.
00:52:29.060 And it's free, so it can vary.
00:52:32.520 Right.
00:52:32.900 So I think that, you know, making this connection between free speech and the market is really it's this idea that wealth is fundamentally knowledge.
00:52:43.280 It's the growth and knowledge that distinguishes us from the Stone Age.
00:52:48.860 It's entirely due to the growth of knowledge.
00:52:51.180 And this is a point that one of our friends, George Gilder, makes.
00:52:54.920 He says wealth is knowledge, growth is learning, and money is time.
00:52:59.280 And from those three propositions, we can derive this theorem that you can measure the growth of knowledge with time.
00:53:06.060 So it's really, you know, how do we grow knowledge?
00:53:09.860 Well, there's also a definition of knowledge that's rooted in there to some degree.
00:53:14.540 Because you might say, well, if you can do the same amount in half the time, you're now twice as smart.
00:53:21.800 You have twice as much knowledge.
00:53:23.320 That's like a definition, right?
00:53:25.020 Because the knowledge, you'd have to define knowledge as useful in relationship to something, which might be the production of something of value.
00:53:33.240 And so if you could do that twice as fast or with half as many resources, especially time, well, then your knowledge is doubled.
00:53:39.740 That's by definition in some real sense.
00:53:42.100 Right. So we define abundance as this measurement of time prices as they relate to you're adding.
00:53:50.800 You must be adding more knowledge, either making the money prices lower or you're increasing income or doing the combination of both because it takes you less and less time to earn the money to buy that thing.
00:54:02.200 And it's a consequence of this growth in knowledge.
00:54:04.820 And that growth in knowledge, it comes from all over the place.
00:54:08.340 It's not just researchers in a lab.
00:54:10.320 It's it's just not professors.
00:54:13.400 It's everybody on the planet is contributing these little bits and pieces of knowledge all the time.
00:54:18.700 Well, look, you can tell I'm always I always find it a miracle to go to Home Depot, especially the tool aisles.
00:54:25.540 You know, when you walk down a tool aisle and there's like 5000 kinds of fasteners and you think, well, what does that mean?
00:54:32.520 It means that some somebody.
00:54:34.520 Generally, generally male has found some little problem when he was hanging up pictures on a wall or trying to get a bolt off of a particularly recalcitrant piece of machinery or some little practical problem and then spent untold hours figuring out how that could just be made better.
00:54:53.920 And then you just have shelves and shelves and shelves and shelves and rows and rows and rows of that.
00:54:59.320 And like I learned because I've done a lot of house renovations and that sort of thing.
00:55:03.240 I learned that if a if a construction job is difficult, that means you didn't find the right tool because someone out there has figured out how to do that.
00:55:11.480 Well, you can certainly see that with obviously with computer software as well.
00:55:15.000 So it is miraculous that this is the case.
00:55:18.360 That's another definition of what a market is.
00:55:20.520 The market is a place where you go to find people that can solve your problem better than you can solve it.
00:55:25.800 Right, right, right, right, right.
00:55:27.660 OK, so let's walk through your book a little bit in more detail, shall we?
00:55:33.440 The first chapter.
00:55:35.520 So part one is Thanos's deadly idea from antiquity to the present and beyond.
00:55:39.840 And so that's this idea of this intrinsic limit of growth and the fundamental pathology of human population.
00:55:46.000 And so we've we've kind of dispensed with that fairly effectively.
00:55:49.500 Are we in the midst of progress or are we facing the apocalypse?
00:55:53.120 Well, probably both, but certainly we're in the midst of progress.
00:55:58.500 And we've covered Thanos's intellectual and practical progenitors and Julian Simon and the bet that made him famous.
00:56:05.720 And then in part two, measuring abundance, new methodology, empirical evidence and in-depth analysis.
00:56:12.020 And so let's go over the Simon abundance framework because you've both done specific work on that.
00:56:17.140 And is there anything that we started to cover?
00:56:20.080 Have we covered it enough or are there more things you want people to know about it?
00:56:23.900 Marion, you want to talk?
00:56:24.900 I think I'll leave that to I think I'll leave that to Gail.
00:56:29.020 Yeah, sure. Absolutely.
00:56:30.040 So we go back to this idea of time prices.
00:56:32.080 Let's convert everything to a time price.
00:56:34.320 And what that allows us to do, in addition, is we can apply a time price to any product, any place at any time.
00:56:41.620 So I can go back to France in 1800 and figure out what the time price was for a loaf of bread.
00:56:46.420 And I can compare it to the time price of an orange in New York City or Toronto today.
00:56:51.580 So once we've created these time prices for everything, then let's see what they're doing over time.
00:56:58.080 And that's the empirical.
00:56:59.740 So we've got this framework, this analytical framework that says use these convert things to time prices and then look at the change in time price over time.
00:57:08.420 And that will tell you what's happening to individuals, what's happening in their life in terms of their personal resource abundance.
00:57:16.720 And that is just this measurement of, well, it cost you this much time yesterday.
00:57:23.520 It cost you this much time today.
00:57:25.360 Your abundance is increasing by that ratio.
00:57:28.060 It's the percentage change in that ratio.
00:57:30.880 You know, if once again drops by 75%, it means I get four for the price of one.
00:57:35.640 My personal abundance is increasing by 300%.
00:57:38.780 So take the framework, go and apply it to all of these commodities, whatever, commodities, finished goods, bicycles, drills, and see what's happened to these time prices.
00:57:52.600 Yeah, so let me ask you about that.
00:57:54.900 These commodities that you've looked at.
00:57:58.280 So let's first of all define that.
00:58:00.040 And so we're assuming that people acquire and work for things they both need and want.
00:58:08.900 And we're going to not take an a priori, a stance of a priori judgment about that.
00:58:15.600 We're going to assume there's all sorts of things that people need and want.
00:58:18.520 And that there's no externally reliable way of determining what those should be.
00:58:24.560 And so we'll let people make those decisions themselves and people will vary and be similar in some ways in relationship to those decisions.
00:58:33.540 How do you ensure that when you look at the improvement in efficiency in relationship to production, that you've properly sampled the domain of commodities?
00:58:46.880 Okay, good question.
00:58:47.840 So we started with this idea of let's just look at these basic fundamental commodities that have not changed over time.
00:58:53.880 A bushel of wheat, a ton of iron ore.
00:58:58.300 Let's start with those because if we were going to go someplace, you know, some island off in the Pacific, what would you want to take with you?
00:59:06.860 Well, you want to have these basic commodities.
00:59:09.000 That's where we came up with this basic 50.
00:59:11.580 And let's subject that basic 50 to this framework.
00:59:14.820 Okay, I want to dig into that more because it's really important, right?
00:59:18.080 Because this is, in some sense, the issue of are you randomly sampling the environment, right?
00:59:24.540 So, like, because you're trying to take a snapshot of human progress and economic efficiency.
00:59:30.560 And we might want to say, well, do you have the thing you're taking a snapshot of properly sampled?
00:59:37.240 So you picked 50, why 50, and which 50, and how did you define basic?
00:59:43.120 Well, we kind of go back to we started with Ehrlich's and Simon's Bet and says, let's look at those five because they both kind of, Ehrlich said, well, these are five non-renewables that, you know, they should run out, right?
00:59:55.780 Because they're non-renewable.
00:59:57.020 Let's put those, let's expand that.
00:59:59.420 Then let's jump out to energy.
01:00:01.200 Let's look at crude oil.
01:00:02.280 What's the price of a barrel of oil, you know, for the last, we've got really good data on the barrel of oil that represents this fundamental unit of measurement in terms of the price of energy.
01:00:12.920 And then let's add food to it.
01:00:14.960 Let's add other materials to it.
01:00:16.900 So what's the price of a two by four?
01:00:19.060 What is the price of a ton of cotton?
01:00:22.600 What are these basic fundamental commodities?
01:00:24.780 And we were also kind of limited to what we could find out there that had good price data on it.
01:00:30.520 And what we found is, you know, you go back to 1980 and you kind of have about 50 of these things that, that we have good data on that we can, we can use.
01:00:41.080 And once again.
01:00:41.520 Okay.
01:00:41.540 So you found, you found that you found that, that, that, that with 50, that was, well, that's a fairly large number of resources, but it's also, you could get reliable data on 50.
01:00:51.820 Could you get reliable data on a hundred?
01:00:54.080 Do you know, or, or did it sort of top out for you at 50?
01:00:56.860 The further back is, yeah, no, the further back in time you get, you go, uh, the, the, the, the less data you have on nominal prices.
01:01:04.880 So for example, by the time we get to, um, uh, 1960, we have, we have 37, but we look at that too.
01:01:11.000 We look at, we look at from 1960 to 2018 and then from 1980 to 2018, just to satisfy those who may be saying that 40 year period is not substantial enough.
01:01:20.720 And, uh, to, to really do time prices for that data, you need the global GDP divided by the number of hours of work, which, which we do in part of the book.
01:01:29.360 But then, and this is critical, then we go back to 1850 and we look at, uh, prices of commodities and food, uh, in the United States from the perspective of blue collar workers and unskilled laborers.
01:01:45.060 Now, this is very important for a number of reasons.
01:01:47.360 Uh, very often people will say, oh, well, you're using average data and that's skewed by the rich.
01:01:52.660 Okay. So we'll take those out. We'll just look at people at the very bottom of the income strata and that's the blue collar workers working in the manufacturing and then unskilled workers.
01:02:01.120 Like for example, uh, uh, people who cleaned the hallways janitors.
01:02:06.760 Okay. Now we have wage data going back to 1770s and we have commodity and food data going back to 1850.
01:02:15.760 So here's what we found. Uh, I'm just going to give a few examples.
01:02:20.620 So a blue collar worker between 1850 and 2018, that's page 157, uh, rice drops in time price by 99%, which means you now have 111 units for the price of one unit.
01:02:37.720 Uh, pork drops by 98.7%, which means that now you have 75 pounds of pork rather than one pound of pork, um, that your ancestors could buy in, uh, 1850.
01:02:50.160 Uh, coffee drop of 98% relative to wages, which means you now get 49 pounds of coffee for the same amount of work that would take you to buy one pound of coffee beef drop by 85%.
01:03:03.300 You now get seven for the price of one. So that's the blue collar worker.
01:03:07.200 Uh, and we can also look at the least fortunate, uh, in, uh, well, least fortunate employed people in the United States.
01:03:13.520 And that's the unskilled, uh, again, an example, a sugar dropped by 99% means you now get 107 pounds of sugar instead of one pound of sugar in 1850.
01:03:24.480 Um, rice, once again, you get 53, uh, pork, uh, 35, 36 pounds, uh, instead of one, uh, corn, 26 pounds for the price of one lamb for instead of one.
01:03:40.140 So, you know, you go over these, um, uh, stats and what you're finding is that so long as you have the nominal price of a commodity in 1850 and a nominal wage hourly wage in 1850, and then you can compare it to 2020 or 2018 or whatever, you can see these trends.
01:03:57.460 And they are the same, whether you're looking globally or in the United States.
01:04:02.420 Yeah. You said, you say, when you're looking at, uh, Jack's 26 commodities here between 1850 and 2018, the average PRA increased by 57, basically 5,800%.
01:04:18.440 So yes, that's personal resource abundance. Correct.
01:04:21.140 Right. Right. And the numeric equivalent of that, the dollar equivalent of that is the, the hourly compensation rate rose from six cents an hour to $32 an hour.
01:04:31.440 So, but they, but the PRA personal resource abundance, uh, index would be a more accurate gauge of that improvement.
01:04:39.180 So the improvement is, it's very difficult, I think for modern young people in particular to really understand how poor people were.
01:04:49.480 Absolutely.
01:04:50.200 Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely.
01:04:52.360 The best, the best example I like to use is the sugar example.
01:04:55.580 And it's like, well, the time it took you to earn the money to buy one pound of sugar in 1850, how many pounds do you think you could get today?
01:05:02.800 I'd love to survey my students on this and they'll say, oh, like two pounds or four pounds, you get 227 pounds.
01:05:10.620 And it might explain why we're all so fat is because sugars becomes just tremendously abundant.
01:05:17.580 And, uh, you know, but, but it's not just sugar.
01:05:20.420 It's all these other ones.
01:05:21.400 Uh, you know, the, the average price has fallen by 98%, which means, you know, for the time it took you to get one unit, you get 50 units.
01:05:31.080 Right, right, right, right, right.
01:05:32.960 Well, and so, and so, okay.
01:05:34.720 And so, well, let's continue with this.
01:05:36.680 So, um, why, why super abundance?
01:05:39.800 Why, why that title?
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01:06:52.620 Well, should I take it?
01:06:55.060 Okay, I feel like I'm talking too much.
01:06:56.500 You should tell me to shut up.
01:06:57.760 But look, it's very simple.
01:07:00.940 If Ehrlich was right, which he wasn't, abundance of resources would be declining.
01:07:07.140 Simon was right.
01:07:08.140 Abundance is increasing.
01:07:09.580 But abundance can increase at two different speeds.
01:07:13.180 If abundance of resources, what we call personal resource abundance, is increasing at a lower rate than population.
01:07:21.680 So, if population increases by 5%, but personal resource abundance is only increasing by 2%, we call that increasing abundance.
01:07:28.900 But if population is increasing at 5%, but your resource abundance is increasing by 10%, we call that super abundance.
01:07:36.800 In the book, we looked at hundreds of commodities, goods, and even services going back all the way to 1850.
01:07:43.180 18 different data sets that we got from third parties, mostly, so that we are not accused of cherry picking.
01:07:51.400 Not all of them, but most of them.
01:07:53.360 All 18 data sets have been growing at a super abundant speed, which means that our wealth, this abundance, is increasing faster than population.
01:08:04.380 And what that tells us is that, on average, every human being contributes more than they consume.
01:08:12.900 We are destroyers, but we are also creators.
01:08:15.940 And it turns out that we are more of a creator than we are a consumer or a destroyer.
01:08:21.680 We create wealth.
01:08:23.720 And also that the rate at which that is true is increasing rather than decreasing.
01:08:29.380 It is.
01:08:30.060 So, our data suggests that the early data sets, going back to 1850 and so on, there we have these increases in abundance of resources at about 2.5% per year, compounded growth rate.
01:08:44.720 But by the time you get to the 1980s and beyond, you get to about 3.5%.
01:08:48.660 Okay, so now we can tell parents, that means we can tell parents that not only is your child not going to be, on average, a net drain on the world's resources,
01:08:58.320 not only are you not going to make other people poorer and the planet more barren by bringing another child into the world,
01:09:05.580 that you're actually doing a positive good, is that if you have 10 children, everyone will be somewhat richer because of that.
01:09:12.380 The chances that they will be richer and the chances that one of those 10 babies is actually going to be able to contribute something substantial to the welfare of human beings is higher than if you just have a one child.
01:09:26.380 Right, right.
01:09:27.380 Ha, ha, ha.
01:09:28.060 Wouldn't that be lovely?
01:09:29.060 And I do believe that it's the case, you know.
01:09:31.440 So, it's really, that's really something to be able to tell people.
01:09:34.120 You know, I've watched in my own life, people react, certainly not positively, to pregnant women talking about their babies, the babies they're going to bring into the world.
01:09:46.780 It's so awful to see, you know.
01:09:48.560 It's, well, you know, and parents themselves, they have this discussion they have with themselves, I suppose, particular moral conundrum for young women is like,
01:09:59.120 well, do I really want to bring a baby into a world like this?
01:10:03.000 And the answer is, well, it's a world that's getting better, and your baby will probably have a better time of it than you did, or there's a reasonable probability of that,
01:10:12.860 but your baby will also be a net good for everyone else.
01:10:16.180 Really?
01:10:16.780 Like, not in some naive, idiot, hallmark, greeting card, simplistic way, but really, actually, solidly.
01:10:25.440 And in spite of all the doomsaying of the Malthusians, and the apocalypses, and the anti-capitalists, and so forth.
01:10:34.140 So, that's a lovely thing to be able to tell people.
01:10:37.120 And that brings us, really, to the importance of innovation, where I think Gale really contributed heavily to that particular chapter.
01:10:45.140 So, I think that I wouldn't mind if he wanted to talk a little bit about innovation, if you don't mind.
01:10:51.080 Yeah. So, here's the idea, as we begin our model thinking about, you know, it begins with human beings,
01:10:58.160 and we focus on that because the only source of new ideas are human beings.
01:11:02.640 And those ideas really entail, how do we create new knowledge with these capitals that we have?
01:11:09.280 We define capital as anything we can use to create something of value.
01:11:13.460 So, you have physical capital, human capital, intellectual capital, financial capital, cultural capital.
01:11:21.320 And so, I begin with this idea, when I can actually manifest that idea and convert the idea into something real,
01:11:29.040 it becomes this thing that we call an invention.
01:11:32.040 But in order for it to actually move into this innovation level, it has to go through the market.
01:11:36.360 And the market is really where you take these things, and they're tested to see if you've truly created value.
01:11:42.900 And if it creates value, then this invention becomes an innovation.
01:11:48.200 And our progress is entirely due to our ability to innovate.
01:11:53.320 Okay. So, Lomborg has showed, this I think dovetails with your work.
01:11:58.460 So, when Lomborg's done his return on investment rank ordering of solutions to the problems that beset us,
01:12:07.580 he showed that the highest return his economists calculated for investment in the future was investment really into early childhood care.
01:12:18.140 Some of that was early childhood nutrition.
01:12:20.440 And part of the reason for that, as far as I can tell, is that, well, if a child's growth is stunted in early life because of malnutrition,
01:12:28.460 one of the things that happens is they don't develop their intelligence, their intrinsic intelligence, to the degree that that's possible.
01:12:35.180 So, there's been a walloping increase in the average IQ of the human population over the last century.
01:12:42.080 And a huge part, especially at the lower end, which has been brought up,
01:12:45.820 and a huge part of that is that, well, there's just so many fewer people suffering from absolute privation.
01:12:51.240 And so, if the most valuable resource that we have is the capacity to innovate,
01:12:57.160 then the most logical problem to target is that which might interfere with the development of, say, general cognitive ability in childhood.
01:13:07.800 And it turns out that that's actually quite inexpensive to foster.
01:13:11.760 And so, that fostering of innovation, there's lots of things that have to do that,
01:13:16.700 but one of them is definitely a concentration on early childhood nutrition, let's say.
01:13:21.240 And it really goes back to this ability, can we get people to be able to learn more or discover and create new knowledge?
01:13:29.020 And if they're healthy, if they have light, if they have these fundamental physical needs met,
01:13:37.040 then they get on these learning curves.
01:13:38.940 And the interesting thing about a learning curve is whenever you double the output of something,
01:13:44.600 costs per unit fall between 20% and 30%.
01:13:47.240 And so, you're really seeing the more we make, the cheaper that we can make them.
01:13:54.260 So, we think about how do we actually grow an economy?
01:13:58.920 Moore's Law, we refer to that all the time, but it's really a function of quantity.
01:14:03.560 It's not a function of time.
01:14:05.120 It's because we're making these chips at such high quantities.
01:14:09.020 Every time we double production, that cost drops by 20%.
01:14:13.000 We're just making trillions and trillions of these chips.
01:14:15.960 Well, this is, okay, tell me what you think of this, guys.
01:14:18.420 So, I've been thinking about justifications for inequality, economic inequality,
01:14:22.820 because you have absolute privation as a problem.
01:14:26.000 And the free market is really good at ameliorating absolute privation.
01:14:29.660 There's no doubt about that.
01:14:30.980 But there's still a fair bit of relative economic inequality.
01:14:33.760 And so, you might say, well, those rich people, like, do we really need people who have billions
01:14:38.520 of dollars?
01:14:39.140 And I think, well, we might need Elon Musk.
01:14:41.240 Like, you know, that's something we could all think about.
01:14:43.560 But in any case, here's a reason we need some people to be extremely rich.
01:14:48.840 I mean, when cell phones first came out, I think they were like $150,000 a piece when
01:14:53.960 they were hooked directly to a satellite network.
01:14:56.200 And, you know, they're big and bulky, and only the most wealthy could clearly afford
01:15:00.900 them and use them productively, given their great expense.
01:15:05.020 But it was what, like, five years later, everybody had one.
01:15:09.020 And now, they're not just cell phones.
01:15:11.140 There's these stunning technological miracles that are, well, they're just beyond comprehension
01:15:16.900 what those things can do.
01:15:18.100 But it isn't obvious to me at all that everyone could have ever got one if only a few people,
01:15:24.160 you know, if we weren't willing to put up with the fact that only a few hyper-wealthy
01:15:28.840 people could have them to begin with.
01:15:30.860 And maybe we can't get really innovative technological, we can't really get, make innovative
01:15:37.920 technological progress at the commodity level, unless we have pools of people at every level
01:15:43.280 of wealth, so that we can produce a market for something new among the hyper-rich, before
01:15:48.980 we can produce enough of it so that everybody can have it.
01:15:51.520 And so, would that mean that inequality, does that imply that economic inequality is actually
01:15:56.700 a prerequisite for the mass production of highly complex technological gadgetry, let's
01:16:04.800 say, for everyone?
01:16:06.640 Yeah, here's what I'd say, Marion, is, look, these new innovations come out, and you have
01:16:13.260 typically these significant fixed costs up front to make the first use.
01:16:18.040 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
01:16:18.660 And who pays for that?
01:16:20.400 The rich pay for that.
01:16:21.800 And then the marginal cost, the cost of the next one, that falls dramatically.
01:16:26.620 Think about software.
01:16:28.200 Think about some of these apps that cost you a million dollars to create the app, but the
01:16:33.120 cost for the next copy is a few cents.
01:16:35.960 Well, what should the price be?
01:16:37.160 The first one costs, the first one costs, you know, a hundred million dollars, and the
01:16:41.720 millionth one costs 15 cents.
01:16:43.620 But you have to get, you have to ratchet your way down that price ladder.
01:16:48.900 Yeah, who's going to do that for you?
01:16:50.320 It's the rich that are willing to put up those costs, pay those prices up front.
01:16:54.840 Well, and then, well, you think too, and if it wasn't, you could say, well, maybe government
01:16:59.920 pools of capital could manage that.
01:17:01.720 But it's not the case because like government isn't going to buy enough massive flat screen
01:17:07.760 TVs when they first become available because the government doesn't consume like an individual,
01:17:12.800 whereas a rich person in some sense does, right?
01:17:16.260 Because they'll go after consumer products.
01:17:18.680 And so I don't think we can replace the benevolent utility of some people with massive pools of
01:17:25.260 capital with any communal replacement.
01:17:28.980 See, I think, yeah, the difference between rich and poor is five years.
01:17:34.520 Right.
01:17:35.000 Yes, yes.
01:17:35.760 You know, I get it today.
01:17:37.080 Well, everybody's going to get this in five years.
01:17:39.700 Yeah.
01:17:39.900 And maybe in 10 years, it'll be two years.
01:17:42.400 I remember very distinctly a conversation I had with a very close friend of mine about 20
01:17:46.980 years ago.
01:17:47.460 We were driving and he said, how long before access to Internet becomes a basic human right?
01:17:53.600 And of course, today in the United States, government pays people who cannot afford access
01:18:00.040 to broadband Internet out of the government pocket.
01:18:02.680 It has basically become a basic human right as far as Americans are concerned.
01:18:07.760 Let me say one thing about, by the way, by that, I don't mean that I buy into universe,
01:18:14.000 into these things as human rights.
01:18:15.480 What I'm saying is that people perceive it as a human right.
01:18:17.920 But I think that the importance of the discussion between equality and inequality is actually
01:18:23.520 much deeper than that.
01:18:26.620 Equality, I'll be very frank, equality is stasis.
01:18:30.940 It's another word for stasis.
01:18:32.960 Inequality, inequality is, in my view, the midwife of progress.
01:18:40.540 Well, it's certainly the midwife of trade, because if we're completely equal, we have nothing
01:18:45.360 to trade.
01:18:45.880 Well, yes, but in so many different ways, inequality is the midwife of human progress.
01:18:54.080 By that, I mean primarily material, but maybe some other as well.
01:18:58.480 Let's say that you have a society which is completely static.
01:19:02.260 I'm just going to come up with an example of everybody living in a cave.
01:19:06.820 And then somebody decides, well, I have this great idea of actually building a hut on a
01:19:12.300 hill with a better view and so forth.
01:19:16.160 There is an inequality of housing there going on for a little while, whilst other people
01:19:21.200 realize that they can improve how they live their lives.
01:19:25.160 In production, even in personal behavior, if you have a society which is static and doesn't
01:19:35.140 change, and somebody realizes that, hey, maybe this form of behavior, like learning, reading
01:19:40.720 books, can lead to a better life, that in itself is a way of inequality.
01:19:47.440 When a company decides that instead of relying on human labor creating pins, we are going
01:19:56.240 to buy a machine that is going to create an inequality of production process, but that
01:20:01.500 is in itself going to move the society forward.
01:20:03.720 Right, so you're basically pointing out that as a positive change begins to manifest itself
01:20:13.360 in a society, it first manifests itself as a marked inequality.
01:20:18.360 It has to, because it can't appear everywhere at once.
01:20:21.400 Yes, because equality is stasis.
01:20:24.680 It means that everything is the same, and inequality is the disruptor.
01:20:29.900 It tells people that things can be done differently.
01:20:32.240 Now, some people make stupid choices, and they suffer the consequences, but if those
01:20:35.440 choices are good, you can become fabulously rich or important in your community because
01:20:40.260 you have figured out a better way of living.
01:20:43.420 And then other people are going to have that five years down the road if you're a reasonable
01:20:46.960 market player.
01:20:47.980 Yeah, yeah, definitely.
01:20:49.440 So the other thing I would add to this is we go back to something real basic, and I think
01:20:53.500 you have income inequality, but you also have time inequality.
01:20:57.080 And when we look at that, from that perspective, it looks much different.
01:21:00.560 So go back to 1960, go to India.
01:21:04.980 Typical Indian would take about seven or eight hours a day to just earn the money to buy their
01:21:09.880 daily rice.
01:21:11.700 And in the United States in 1960, it would take an hour to buy a wheat.
01:21:19.100 And so both of these commodities have fallen by 90% of their time price.
01:21:23.480 So who's better off?
01:21:25.420 Well, the guy in India, he used to spend eight hours.
01:21:29.100 Now he spends only one hour.
01:21:31.840 So he picks up seven hours.
01:21:34.380 The guy in the US spent an hour, and now he only spends six minutes.
01:21:38.440 He only picks up 55 minutes.
01:21:39.940 So the difference in time, this time inequality gets really compressed when you have this innovation
01:21:47.440 on these prices, especially when you're dealing with these basic fundamental food items.
01:21:53.500 The poor are the primary beneficiaries of that because now they have so much more time
01:21:58.620 relative to where they were 20 or 30 years ago to now go learn and pursue and be creative.
01:22:04.400 And that's the beauty of time prices.
01:22:06.760 Not only is it immune from governments fiddling around with inflation numbers, but also you
01:22:12.680 can make international comparisons.
01:22:14.520 You no longer have to figure out what is the exchange rate between the American dollar and
01:22:18.600 the Indian rupee.
01:22:20.040 Look at the minutes that the people work there.
01:22:22.140 Look at the minutes people work here.
01:22:23.460 And that will give you a sense whether inequality is increasing or decreasing.
01:22:27.120 Right, right, right.
01:22:28.240 OK, well, let's try to cover two more things before we finish.
01:22:34.400 We haven't got to part three of your book.
01:22:36.420 So that's human flourishing and its enemies.
01:22:39.240 So I want to talk about that.
01:22:40.580 And then the other thing I'd like you to discuss is, well, how is your how is your work being
01:22:47.300 received both publicly and by other economists?
01:22:51.480 So let's start with the we'll close off the walk through your book.
01:22:55.580 We'll go through part three, human flourishing and its enemies.
01:22:58.980 You have four chapters there.
01:23:00.640 One is humanity's seven million year journey from the rainforest to the Industrial Revolution.
01:23:06.500 Chapter eight is the age of innovation and the great enrichment.
01:23:09.920 Chapter nine is where do innovations come from, population growth and freedom, and then
01:23:14.040 the enemies of progress from the romantics to the extreme environmentalists.
01:23:18.780 So I'll let you guys comment on part three first.
01:23:20.820 And then let's go to reception of your work and and your hope for these ideas as well.
01:23:25.220 Now, can I back up to part two real quick?
01:23:28.900 Absolutely.
01:23:29.600 Take another piece of the story that we want to tell.
01:23:32.440 All right.
01:23:32.680 So we're going to go back to a bit of section two.
01:23:34.720 Gail's going to take us on a on a journey through the remainder of section two.
01:23:39.500 OK, so if you're on page 222, you'll see this box that we developed.
01:23:43.300 And the idea is, if we can take and measure, let's put population on the horizontal axis
01:23:48.360 and let's put personal resource abundance on the vertical axis.
01:23:52.620 And then let's look at 1980 and say 1980.
01:23:56.380 And let's just index the personal resource abundance and population to a value of one.
01:24:01.380 So that red that red box represents the size of the global resource pie in 1980.
01:24:06.860 So two things happen.
01:24:09.260 First of all, your personal resource abundance is increased by 252%.
01:24:14.300 So we go up on the vertical axis, but population also increased by 71%.
01:24:19.620 So you go out on the horizontal axis.
01:24:22.720 So that's a stunning graph.
01:24:24.320 It is a stunning graph.
01:24:25.860 It really makes me realize that it's not 1980 anymore.
01:24:29.480 Not 1980 at all.
01:24:30.900 So when you combine those two, the red box is the 1980 global resource pie.
01:24:37.240 The 2018 green box is 2018.
01:24:40.460 And you look at the difference and you can measure those two.
01:24:45.500 And our total abundance, that green area, that's 500% larger than it was in 1980.
01:24:51.600 So the compound annual growth rate of this population level resource abundance is almost 5% a year.
01:24:59.260 And what's interesting about that is you look at the elasticity.
01:25:05.000 In other words, if I increase population by 1%, what happens to personal resource abundance?
01:25:10.600 And we see there that for every 1% increase in population, your personal resource abundance increased by 3.5%.
01:25:19.080 Man, the biologists must just hate you guys, eh?
01:25:22.000 Well, here's the deal is once again, the biologists would have been right if they would have considered knowledge as the key unit of measurement instead of atoms.
01:25:34.740 If you measure knowledge.
01:25:37.060 So information, information rather than just pure matter.
01:25:40.740 Right.
01:25:41.200 It's this knowledge that can grow.
01:25:45.080 Not only can it grow, it can be shared with another person that's not rivalrous.
01:25:49.240 In other words, you and I can share the same knowledge.
01:25:51.500 So we get this ability to create this substance that we can share with each other that it doesn't, you know, if I have a Snickers bar and I give it to you, I lose it.
01:26:00.160 But knowledge doesn't have that feature.
01:26:00.820 There was no reason for the biologists to presume, except that they use bad animal analogies, let's say, that the same units of biological activity would necessarily require the same units of cost.
01:26:14.500 I mean, so we're not well modeled by yeast and we're not perhaps well modeled by rats because we have this capacity to abstract.
01:26:23.760 A good biologist would say, hey, that's a fundamental transformation in the nature of biological reality.
01:26:29.640 It's not something that can just be hand waved away.
01:26:32.120 And Malthus did not take that into account.
01:26:35.300 And that means he was wrong biologically, not just economically.
01:26:39.240 And I think, as I said before, the evolution of the prefrontal cortex is a good exemplar of that.
01:26:44.640 A perfect example of the difference between atoms, which are finite, and knowledge, which is potentially infinite, is the most expensive car in the world called Bugatti Veyron.
01:26:58.480 It costs $18 million when you drive it out of the dealership.
01:27:04.120 When you then smash it into a wall, it is a heap of plastic and metal worth maybe tens of thousands of dollars.
01:27:15.320 The amount of atoms is the same, but they've been rearranged in a less pleasant way, which makes the difference between an $18 million car and a scrap of heap.
01:27:29.020 That's the difference between talking about atoms and their finite nature and knowledge, which can then recreate and which can arrange and rearrange them.
01:27:41.440 Sure, sure.
01:27:42.020 And what you're doing there, too, is offering a real criticism of even the notion, certainly the overuse of the notion of zero-sum game.
01:27:51.460 It's like, no, no, things aren't finite the way that you've been conceptualizing finite, because it doesn't matter, it matters how much stuff there is, but it matters even more how the stuff is organized.
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01:29:18.720 And, I mean, you can certainly see that when we're, you just think about it for a few seconds,
01:29:25.800 about our ability to store information in ever-decreasing spaces,
01:29:30.780 and that we haven't hit a limit to by any stretch of the imagination.
01:29:33.960 I mean, hard drive technology just gets stunningly better, faster and faster.
01:29:38.920 And what's the limit to that?
01:29:40.400 The Planck length, or some unbelievably infinitesimal, tiny, tiny space, you know,
01:29:46.400 that would constitute the absolute physical limit of our ability to pack information into a given unit of,
01:29:53.420 of, say, time and space.
01:29:55.620 We're not even, we're nowhere near that yet.
01:29:58.460 Well, that actually leads me to a very interesting observation made by Nobel Prize winning economist,
01:30:03.980 Paul Romer, who talked about the combinatorial revolution.
01:30:08.240 Do I have time to talk about it very briefly?
01:30:11.080 Yeah, yeah.
01:30:11.760 So, the periodic table has about 100 elements in it, right?
01:30:19.020 And if you take a simple compound like bronze, it is constituted only of two elements, which is copper and tin, right?
01:30:31.960 And it took us thousands of years to get to a point where we realized that by combining copper and tin,
01:30:38.140 we could actually come up with bronze, which was actually useful for all sorts of things.
01:30:42.360 But now, once you start, the number of calculations, the number of two element calculations are, of course,
01:30:51.540 100 times 99, right?
01:30:53.580 And it takes a lot of time to go through all of that.
01:30:55.740 Once you get to four elements, that means 100 times 99 times 98 times 97,
01:31:02.800 you get to 94 million possible combinations.
01:31:07.960 And here is the astonishing thing.
01:31:10.300 When you start thinking about combinations of 10 elements,
01:31:15.540 the number of combinations is greater than the number of seconds since the Big Bang 14 billion years ago, right?
01:31:28.680 So, we literally, we are very smart compared to our ancestors.
01:31:34.920 But I think that when people look upon us in 100 or 200 years' time,
01:31:41.100 they will think we are very, very stupid indeed,
01:31:43.820 because they will come up with all sorts of things by having more people,
01:31:48.440 more freedom, and more computing power that we couldn't even imagine.
01:31:52.800 So, in some sense, you're making the case that the idea that we will run out of resources,
01:31:57.980 given commentatorial possibility, is as absurd as the idea that we'll run out of music.
01:32:04.920 So, Gail, and I have this wonderful, Gail, take it over,
01:32:09.900 because this is one of those things that we are very proud of.
01:32:12.900 Right.
01:32:13.240 So, I always quiz my students, how many keys on a piano?
01:32:16.080 Well, there's 88 keys, right?
01:32:17.680 Well, then how many songs are in a piano?
01:32:20.060 Well, there's really no songs in a piano.
01:32:22.600 It's a trick question.
01:32:23.640 The songs are in the minds of human beings.
01:32:25.360 And what is that number?
01:32:26.880 Well, it's really infinite.
01:32:28.640 And so, if you go back and ask Thanos or Malthus,
01:32:32.580 how many keys on a piano?
01:32:34.140 They say 88.
01:32:34.740 Well, how many songs?
01:32:36.240 Thanos would say, well, you got 88 keys.
01:32:38.200 You must only have 88 songs.
01:32:40.520 Right?
01:32:40.720 It's kind of this crazy thing.
01:32:42.880 So, but kind of back to your rule number four about your perspective.
01:32:49.500 And when you say, you know,
01:32:52.380 do we compare ourselves to who other people are,
01:32:55.240 or do we compare who we were yesterday?
01:32:57.240 This little chart that we discussed allows us to go back and look back in time.
01:33:03.400 And it's really the proper perspective.
01:33:06.280 If we look at not who we compare ourselves against today or who we compare ourselves to out in the future,
01:33:14.120 but look back in time, you'll see that that perspective is going, wow.
01:33:19.320 It is.
01:33:20.700 I'm just scrolling through these graphs that as you go farther and farther back in time, it's stunning.
01:33:27.200 It's absolutely stunning.
01:33:29.120 Yeah.
01:33:29.340 And so I think the proper perspective, come up with the proper way to measure,
01:33:34.460 and then use the proper perspective will give you this completely different picture about where we've come to and the potential going forward.
01:33:43.500 Yeah, you guys must be pretty damn thrilled about this book, eh?
01:33:47.420 We are very thrilled.
01:33:48.740 But I think that playing off of something that Gail said about your rule number four is that,
01:33:56.160 you see, I think that if you compare yourself to other people today or, you know, sort of utopian future where everything is working optimally for everyone,
01:34:06.760 everywhere at all times, then that can only lead to envy and resentment.
01:34:12.760 Whereas if you compare your life today in a civilized society to life before, you end up with a different emotion, which is one of gratitude.
01:34:23.220 And I think that what is so fundamentally, what is very problematic is that so many people in the world are either resentful or envious rather than grateful for the extraordinary achievement that humanity has made already.
01:34:40.420 Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
01:34:42.760 Well, let's, that brings us, perhaps, if we're ready to go past part two to part three, which was, well, you, you, one of the chapters there, I think it's chapter 10.
01:34:51.640 Let me just get back to the table of contents here.
01:34:54.060 Well, first of all, so, do you guys, do you have any thoughts on why people would be, I mean, are people opposed to these ideas?
01:35:15.220 Do they think you're wrong about what you're saying?
01:35:18.180 Do they, what kind of criticisms are you attracting?
01:35:22.040 And, and why are you attracting them?
01:35:24.320 We're here to ask you that question, Dr. Peterson, psychologist.
01:35:28.740 Yeah, well, I think, yeah, well, I think, I think, I think that Marion did a reasonable job just in, in the, in the conversation fragments a few seconds earlier.
01:35:40.580 Um, misplaced envy is a really big problem.
01:35:45.740 Resentment's a really big problem.
01:35:47.180 Historical ignorance is a really big problem.
01:35:50.000 You know, I mean, people, people don't know how bad it was.
01:35:52.840 They don't know how far we've come.
01:35:55.840 They're never taught that.
01:35:57.420 They're not taught how terrible things had become in many places in the 20th century.
01:36:01.680 Look, my students in my personality class, these are smart kids at the University of Toronto.
01:36:06.920 They were well-educated by, by comparative standards.
01:36:10.460 None of them knew anything about what happened in Stalinist Soviet Union or in Maoist China or in Cambodia.
01:36:16.580 No one had ever taught, taught them.
01:36:18.560 And so, so I, I think, you know, young people, they, they see inequality in the world.
01:36:25.340 And they see some of the painful consequences of inequality because there are painful consequences.
01:36:30.480 And then they're enticed into finding a quick source of blame that requires no thought and
01:36:37.700 also enticed into manifesting a moral virtue that is neither moral nor virtuous.
01:36:43.700 And so, and then, and so here we are.
01:36:46.980 And instead of, uh, you know, I've thought for many years, decades, that whenever I walk
01:36:51.780 out on the street and things aren't on fire, I'm pretty damn thrilled at how stable and
01:36:56.540 peaceful things are.
01:36:57.640 I don't take electricity for granted.
01:37:00.240 I don't take the integrity of the supply chain for granted.
01:37:04.400 I truly think these are miracles.
01:37:06.240 I don't think the fact that the default interaction between human beings in, in this, in the Western
01:37:13.860 world, broadly speaking, the default economic transaction is based on trust.
01:37:19.140 I don't take that for granted.
01:37:20.800 That's a bloody miracle.
01:37:21.980 It took us hardly any societies have ever managed that.
01:37:25.540 And it took us thousands and tens of thousands of years to produce that.
01:37:28.860 But I think children, our children are so badly educated by people who have no idea.
01:37:34.820 They have no idea about economics.
01:37:36.140 They have no idea about history.
01:37:37.320 They have no idea about privation or suffering.
01:37:39.400 They're looking for easy answers and, and, uh, and, and people to blame for the remaining,
01:37:45.560 you know, catastrophes of the world.
01:37:49.080 And I think your work is an unbelievably good antidote to that and, and something to offer
01:37:54.120 young people that's so bloody positive with that and that it's, you know, miraculous and
01:37:58.620 not naive at the same time.
01:38:00.240 Like what a good combination that is.
01:38:01.820 Well, here's, here's, here's the question I love to ask my students is what would I have
01:38:05.420 to pay you for you to never use your, your, your iPhone and the internet again for the
01:38:11.720 remainder of your life?
01:38:13.780 And I've never get, I've never been able to get a student to, to do it for less than $5
01:38:19.280 million.
01:38:20.700 It's like, you have this $5 million thing that you own.
01:38:25.720 You're all, you're all five millionaires because you get to walk around with these devices.
01:38:30.440 Uh, you are, you are so prosperous, so rich compared to, to anybody that's come before
01:38:37.500 you.
01:38:37.840 How could you not be anything other than, than just, just hyper grateful for the life
01:38:44.280 that we have?
01:38:45.620 Well, you know, I, I think that one of the things we need to do about this is we need
01:38:49.680 to start training young people to think about themselves as possessed of more possibility
01:38:56.600 than they know what to do with, and then encourage to harness that.
01:39:00.440 In, in, so it'd say, well, look, you, you have all the food that you could have, and
01:39:05.920 you have all the information that there is.
01:39:09.120 You've got it all in front of you.
01:39:11.000 Now that you have it all in front of you, what's the most noble vision you can bring
01:39:15.120 forth to make use of that possibility?
01:39:17.900 You know, and, and I know some of the research I've done on helping people make vision for
01:39:23.440 the future, future authoring program, we show them pretty clearly that you can motivate students.
01:39:28.460 We dropped the dropout rate of boys in, in community college, 50% by just having them
01:39:33.620 sit down for 90 minutes and develop a vision.
01:39:35.800 And so you say, look, you look at what's in front of you way more than anyone's ever had
01:39:42.180 in history.
01:39:43.280 And some people might have a little more in front of them than you, like certainly, but
01:39:48.140 when you have more than you can ever use, how much do you need?
01:39:52.160 And, and, and then who should you be to live up to that?
01:39:56.660 Well, that's, you know, our collective problem at the moment, trying to solve that and hopefully
01:40:00.420 solving it before we let bitterness and resentment and historical ignorance get the upper hand,
01:40:06.340 because it's kind of a battle at the moment.
01:40:09.560 Yes.
01:40:09.800 In our book, we do point to a number of people who have made a tremendous difference in the
01:40:16.620 history of our species.
01:40:17.660 We talk about Gutenberg, for example, and his printing press.
01:40:23.100 We talk about Watt and his steam engine.
01:40:28.540 We talk about Samuel Weiss, the guy who realized that when doctors washed their hands, they weren't
01:40:34.180 killing their patients and things like that.
01:40:36.500 And so he had a fun time with that, didn't he?
01:40:38.580 Didn't he end up like persecuted at an insane asylum and died a miserable death for all his
01:40:43.700 advances, advancing humanity?
01:40:46.080 That's right.
01:40:46.800 That's right.
01:40:47.660 It certainly wasn't accepted at the time, just like Galileo's observations and whatever.
01:40:54.500 But, but I think that if, if this book could imbue young people with the understanding that
01:41:04.760 they have worth, that they have something to contribute, that it is more noble to apply
01:41:13.120 yourself to changing society for the better, rather than constantly bitching about problems
01:41:20.580 in society that you don't intend to do anything about except to complain and go on marches,
01:41:27.680 you know, do something, something proactive.
01:41:30.960 If you, if you see that there are children in Africa dying from a, from a curable disease,
01:41:37.660 go and join the group of people who are going to discover a cure to it or whatever.
01:41:43.080 Yeah.
01:41:43.600 Or figure out how to, the bloody faculties of education.
01:41:46.080 I've been thinking about this for like 10 years.
01:41:48.080 You know, with our computer technology, every single child, I would say on the planet, but
01:41:54.960 certainly in the, in the States where everyone has access to computational equipment, every
01:42:00.720 single child should be an expert speed reader because computers could train children to automate
01:42:06.100 letter phoneme and word recognition perfectly rapidly because computers are great at mass
01:42:13.600 practice.
01:42:14.940 And if the faculties of education had an ounce of integrity, they would have been working
01:42:20.040 diligently on the problem of getting children over that hump because there's a hump in reading
01:42:25.040 comprehension, eh?
01:42:25.980 Because to begin with, like there is when you're learning how to play music, you have to automate
01:42:31.580 letter recognition and syllable recognition and word recognition, and then phrase recognition.
01:42:37.680 So you get a phrase at a glance.
01:42:40.220 As soon as you've got that, you can start to read for meaning.
01:42:43.760 It's no longer effortful.
01:42:45.400 And then as soon as you can read for meaning, of course, it's, it's just as engaging as watching
01:42:50.940 a movie, which people obviously don't have to be taught to do.
01:42:54.340 And so there are all these problems that are laying out there in the world and people have
01:42:58.820 a set of problems that bug them, that they could be working on fixing and they have all
01:43:02.800 this technology to fix it.
01:43:04.120 It's like, that's, that's what you want to do is figure out what, what you think needs
01:43:08.920 to be fixed and then take all this wealth that you had put at your disposal and fix it,
01:43:14.820 man.
01:43:15.560 And then you got something to do with your life.
01:43:17.600 And we could start with the proposition that it's good that you're around.
01:43:22.080 How's that?
01:43:22.740 You're not a cancer on the face of the planet and you don't have to hang your head in shame
01:43:26.520 because you're ruining everything.
01:43:27.740 Quite the contrary.
01:43:29.160 That's actually wrong.
01:43:31.020 And I don't just mean wrong morally.
01:43:32.600 I mean, wrong in the sense you guys have pointed out it's wrong technically.
01:43:36.280 No, that's wrong.
01:43:37.720 Those biologists got it wrong.
01:43:39.980 Our innovation, our innovation framework is of course, embedded in a national culture.
01:43:47.300 And let me say a few words about that.
01:43:49.100 The cultures go through periods of tremendous openness to change, technological change.
01:43:59.020 And technology, of course, manifests itself in great advances in biotechnology, industry,
01:44:07.440 whatever, even education.
01:44:08.560 But they can also ossify, close themselves off and destroy themselves from within.
01:44:16.240 A perfect example of that would be the difference between Song China and Ming China and the succeeding
01:44:22.160 dynasties.
01:44:23.400 Song China in the 12th century AD was a tremendous place of openness and innovation and relative
01:44:31.540 freedom.
01:44:31.980 It was during that period that the Chinese have come up with paper money, the compass, gunpowder.
01:44:39.100 And then the dynasty collapsed and it was replaced by a particularly tyrannical one, Ming and successor.
01:44:45.540 And China went into a technological downward spiral in which it remained for the next 800 years.
01:44:54.640 So the analogy to the United States, I think, would be that in the 1950s and the 1960s, there
01:45:02.080 certainly was a tremendously forward-looking mentality which talked about flying cars and-
01:45:13.940 Travel to the moon?
01:45:14.540 Well, not just travel to the moon, but interstellar travel and all sorts of things.
01:45:20.980 And I think that especially in the last couple of decades, maybe since the end of the dot-com
01:45:28.340 bubble, and of course, the postmodern triumph in universities, I think that that sort of optimism
01:45:36.840 has been replaced by a sense that personal agency is no longer that important.
01:45:45.460 Oh, it's worse than that, Marion.
01:45:48.980 I've watched this with young men.
01:45:50.860 They're being taught that personal agency, first of all, perhaps doesn't exist, that that's
01:45:57.800 just a cover story for the use of compulsion and power, because that's in some sense the
01:46:04.740 postmodern claim.
01:46:05.640 But that even if it does exist, that all that agency, and this is in keeping with this Malthusian
01:46:10.800 doctrine, is that, well, you shouldn't be exercising your agency, because you're just part of the
01:46:16.520 world-destroying force.
01:46:17.720 And so it'd be better for the planet if you didn't exist.
01:46:23.080 But if you have to go to all the goddamn trouble of existing and imposing yourself on existence
01:46:27.540 itself, then you should at least have the good sense not to do anything.
01:46:32.500 And I do believe that that's the message, especially that young men are getting, that
01:46:36.700 they're a burden on the planet, and if they don't just shut up about their good fortune
01:46:42.440 about being here, they certainly shouldn't go around trying to do anything, because God
01:46:48.400 only knows what will come out of that.
01:46:49.880 And it's so demoralizing.
01:46:51.320 It's so awful to watch.
01:46:53.080 But I think the pendulum is swinging back at least a little bit.
01:46:57.360 I mean, you have your podcast and your reach.
01:47:01.620 Our book had been endorsed by Nobel Prize and economists, former high-level government
01:47:10.160 officials, by best-selling authors.
01:47:14.880 And I think that, especially when you show people the data and you explain what they are
01:47:21.680 looking at, and that it is objective, that the world is really getting better, not in
01:47:27.160 spite of population growth, but at least in large part because of population growth, they
01:47:32.060 start thinking very differently.
01:47:37.040 And hopefully, this particular book will be a bit of an antidote to that kind of anti-humanism
01:47:43.900 and anti-natalism that is destroying generations of people.
01:47:48.100 We didn't talk about it very much.
01:47:49.460 But in the third part of the book, I talk about these new studies on the rise in so-called
01:47:57.640 eco-anxiety amongst children.
01:48:02.360 Throughout the Western world, children are being scared to death that every sandwich they
01:48:08.780 eat, every holiday they take is somehow destroying the planet.
01:48:13.520 Psychologists are now seeing families who find it very difficult to cope with living in the
01:48:21.560 modern world because they feel that their activity is destroying the planet.
01:48:27.860 This anti-natalist, anti-humanist view is deeply damaging not just to the general future of
01:48:40.860 species, but to individual lives of men, women, and children in the world today.
01:48:46.020 Yeah, it does nothing.
01:48:47.180 Well, the other, it's also, it's also, it also is counterproductive in relationship to
01:48:53.080 the stated goals of the people producing the anxiety.
01:48:57.460 Because what happens to men who are demoralized, young men who are demoralized, is that because
01:49:03.300 they lose hope and then don't put in effort and become cynical, that their relationships get
01:49:10.700 fractured and they have no productive activity.
01:49:13.020 And so their lives get more and more difficult and cynicism-inducing as they withdraw into this
01:49:21.920 sort of nihilistic negative Buddhism in some sense.
01:49:25.520 And then they get bitter, and then they get resentful, and then they get angry, and then
01:49:31.640 look the hell out.
01:49:34.620 And so, because if you push people into a corner by demoralizing them about like the very nature
01:49:40.520 of their existence itself or about existence itself, it isn't that they're just going to
01:49:46.220 wander away quietly and disappear into the woodwork like mice.
01:49:50.480 Some of them will do that, but others will turn into unbelievable monsters.
01:49:55.760 And we always throw up our hands and wave around when we see something happen like happened
01:49:59.660 in Buffalo.
01:50:00.360 It's like, well, why did that happen?
01:50:01.760 It's like, well, if you wanted to know, you could know, but you don't want to know.
01:50:07.880 It's interesting you should mention it, is because in the last chapter on Enemies of Progress,
01:50:12.980 we actually discussed some of the mass shooters in the United States over the last five years
01:50:19.020 or so, and many have been driven by Malthusian concerns.
01:50:27.220 One of the shooters in Walmart, I believe it was in El Paso, left behind him a memorandum
01:50:34.400 saying that there are too many people in the world, and if we want to be good for the planet,
01:50:38.420 we have to start culling, culling our fellow human beings.
01:50:42.940 Well, look, man, if there are too many people on the planet, and we're facing an apocalypse
01:50:48.160 because of it, well, why isn't that the moral thing to do?
01:50:52.500 You know, and people keep asking, what are these shooters?
01:50:55.740 There's lots of reasons these shooters do what they do, and a lot of it's a real pathological
01:51:00.120 narcissism.
01:51:01.300 But they don't leave behind manifestos because they haven't been thinking.
01:51:06.020 They are, and they are often possessed by these antinatalist and Malthusian ideas.
01:51:10.960 There's no doubt about that.
01:51:12.000 And that's part of what they do to justify their destructive narcissism, is say, well,
01:51:17.260 I'm, look at me, I'm, you know, I'm a moral paragon because I'm getting rid of some of
01:51:21.420 the excess population.
01:51:22.740 It's like, well, I'm going to view that with a bit of skepticism, thank you very much.
01:51:26.800 But it's not like they're not being handled, handled the, handed the ammunition by the
01:51:32.920 right-thinking biologists in prestigious universities who proclaim so self-righteously that there are
01:51:39.680 too many people on the planet.
01:51:41.540 Yeah, you go back, you go back, Jordan, to the Unabomber, if you remember him and his
01:51:46.380 manifesto, and you look at who he was trying to blow up.
01:51:49.480 He actually targeted research centers that were trying to come up with cures for natalist
01:51:57.680 diseases and problems.
01:51:59.700 Like, you're going to attack the very source of new life because your ideology says there's
01:52:05.280 too many people.
01:52:06.120 Yeah, so one of the things we can conclude with is, for everyone watching and listening,
01:52:11.080 if you are possessed by a set of ideas that's predicated on the claim that in some fundamental
01:52:18.180 ontological manner there are too many people for you, then you should take a serious look
01:52:24.920 at what you believe because there's nothing in that that's good.
01:52:28.380 And your claim that that belief is what everyone sensible would believe if they only cared about
01:52:33.020 the planet is like, first of all, just exactly what sort of saint are you?
01:52:37.160 And second of all, where the hell is your evidence for that claim?
01:52:40.840 And so, yeah, I'm appalled at how frequently those claims are put forward in universities
01:52:46.000 under the guise of some transcendent morality and some what is worship of the abstract planet
01:52:52.160 in some sense that makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
01:52:55.500 And to sacrifice actual people to that, it's just beyond comprehension.
01:53:01.180 So maybe your book is a blow in the other direction.
01:53:04.180 I know your work has been so far and like this book looks to me like something that's really going to
01:53:09.280 give those who think differently from this something really difficult to contend with.
01:53:16.100 So wouldn't that be lovely?
01:53:19.040 It would.
01:53:19.940 We are very grateful for the opportunity to talk about it on your podcast today.
01:53:23.580 Yeah, well, hey, I'm so happy about your work.
01:53:26.420 It's so it's so lovely to see these arguments be made in such a level headed manner.
01:53:31.260 And so in such a deep rooted empirical manner, what are the economists let's are you being
01:53:37.340 criticized by the by economists as well?
01:53:39.840 Like what sort of reception are your suggestions for the retooling of measurement metrics?
01:53:46.060 What sort of response are you receiving from economists, for example?
01:53:49.820 Well, when we present when we present this perspective, the first response is just kind
01:53:55.040 of this little bit of a surprise, just like no response.
01:53:59.000 And then go go in and look at the data and then come back and tell us where what we're
01:54:03.560 missing here.
01:54:04.280 What are we what are we missing?
01:54:05.960 Is there a problem with the data?
01:54:07.240 Is there a problem with our logic?
01:54:09.820 Follow us through on this and let us know where we've made a mistake in our thinking.
01:54:14.660 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
01:54:15.760 Well, that's good.
01:54:16.600 That's good.
01:54:17.080 So that means that, well, what that seems to imply is that, well, A, you haven't made
01:54:21.520 any obvious mistakes, but B, your approach is sufficiently unexpected, which which I think
01:54:27.460 is pretty clear from a cultural perspective, that it's actually going to take people a while
01:54:31.880 to digest it and come back with the appropriate suggestions for improvement, no real criticism
01:54:38.040 of the of the positive and useful sort.
01:54:40.600 Yeah, I would say that so far, the book has been circulating for long enough, its early
01:54:46.260 drafts amongst the well known economists, that if there was any serious problem with
01:54:52.200 the methodology, we would have been told and we haven't.
01:54:55.720 So the big test of the book, and of the ideas in it is going to be the market test.
01:55:01.620 Is it going to is it going to succeed or not?
01:55:04.040 And if it sells, and if people are talking about it, then we'll know that we are on to
01:55:09.340 something.
01:55:10.180 Well, how, how, how is your previous book, the trends book doing?
01:55:14.380 And how many has it sold?
01:55:15.560 Well, by standards of, of a think tank book, meaning, you know, full of statistics, it,
01:55:25.220 it's sold about, I think it's about over 40,000 copies, which still makes it one of the one
01:55:32.180 of the best or best selling think tank books, you know, in this town.
01:55:37.880 But this new book is intended for a general audience as well.
01:55:42.140 The reason why we spend so much time talking about the history, um, about, um, uh, you
01:55:47.600 know, Thanos, for example, um, is precisely because we want people to start understanding
01:55:54.880 how these pernicious ideas that have been around for a very long time have found their
01:55:59.840 way into popular culture and maybe lodged in the back of their brains.
01:56:05.320 Um, um, and, and, and, and, and that there is no reason why they should be the real estate
01:56:11.540 in the brain is precious.
01:56:13.340 Don't fill it with, uh, with stuff, which is not true.
01:56:16.780 Yeah.
01:56:17.360 Yeah.
01:56:17.800 Yeah.
01:56:18.100 Okay.
01:56:18.500 Well, today.
01:56:19.160 All right.
01:56:19.520 So everyone listening, um, we were talking about Marian Tupi's and, uh, Gail Pooley's
01:56:27.180 new book, super abundance, and their reanalysis of the role of human population and human freedom
01:56:34.900 in producing flourishing in all dimensions, environmental, economic, conceptual, all these
01:56:42.380 things we can be positive about.
01:56:43.960 And so I, I, I think it's great.
01:56:46.240 I think the work's great.
01:56:47.180 And it's, as I said earlier, it's so lovely to see something so profoundly optimistic and
01:56:54.720 such an effective blow against this dismal and vindictive anti-humanism that seems to masquerade
01:57:01.580 as current day moral virtue.
01:57:04.620 And so good for you guys.
01:57:06.060 I hope you sell 5 million copies and that people dispense with this Malthusian catastrophe
01:57:16.720 that's been plaguing us for like a hundred years.
01:57:20.960 So that'd be lovely, man.
01:57:23.200 Thank you very much.
01:57:24.480 Thank you.
01:57:24.840 Good to see you guys.
01:57:25.800 You bet, man.
01:57:26.600 All right.
01:57:26.780 Yeah.
01:57:26.940 Nice talking to you.
01:57:27.700 Yeah.
01:57:27.800 Yeah.
01:57:27.860 Yeah.
01:57:27.920 Yeah.
01:57:28.300 Yeah.
01:57:28.800 Yeah.
01:57:28.860 Yeah.
01:57:28.920 Yeah.
01:57:29.300 Yeah.
01:57:29.800 Yeah.
01:57:30.300 Yeah.
01:57:30.360 Yeah.
01:57:31.300 Yeah.
01:57:32.300 Yeah.
01:57:32.360 Yeah.
01:57:33.300 Yeah.
01:57:34.300 Yeah.
01:57:35.300 Yeah.