The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast - 320. Climate Science： What Does it Say？

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00:00:57.420 Hello everyone.

00:01:09.680 I'm going to continue today my inquiry into the fraught realm, let's say, of climate science, the so-called settled climate science.

00:01:19.980 I'm talking today to Dr. Richard Lindzen.

00:01:22.800 He's an accomplished professor, atmospheric physicist, and meteorologist, having authored over 200 scientific papers

00:01:29.940 and contributed to landmark theories in the realm of ozone photochemistry, atmospheric tides, and most recently, climate stability.

00:01:38.440 Holding a rare view in opposition to mainstream science, or perhaps not so rare,

00:01:42.960 Lindzen disagrees on the role of water vapor in current climate change models,

00:01:47.700 and argues that alarmism is widespread, aided by political consensus, not unlike the once popular research on eugenics.

00:01:57.920 Dr. Richard Lindzen is a dynamical meteorologist.

00:02:01.760 He has contributed to the development of theories for the Hadley Circulation,

00:02:07.060 Hydrodynamic Instability Theory, Internal Gravity Waves, Atmospheric Tides,

00:02:12.200 and the Quasi-Biannual Oscillation of the Stratosphere.

00:02:15.860 His current research is focused on climate sensitivity,

00:02:19.520 the role of cirrus clouds in climate,

00:02:22.100 and the determination of the tropics to pole temperature difference.

00:02:25.960 His academic degrees are all from Harvard University.

00:02:28.640 He is the recipient of various awards

00:02:32.040 and is a member of the National Academy of Sciences

00:02:35.080 and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences,

00:02:39.180 the American Geophysical Union,

00:02:41.200 the American Meteorological Society,

00:02:43.840 and the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

00:02:47.000 Between 83 and 2013,

00:02:49.200 he was the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at MIT.

00:02:55.800 He assumed emeritus status as of July of 2013.

00:03:01.500 Prior to 83,

00:03:02.640 he held professorships at the University of Chicago

00:03:04.880 and Harvard University.

00:03:06.960 He's also been a distinguished visiting scientist

00:03:09.300 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory,

00:03:12.400 as well as a visiting professor

00:03:13.800 at the Hebrew University,

00:03:16.040 Tel Aviv University,

00:03:17.720 the Ecole Normale Superior,

00:03:20.320 the University of Paris,

00:03:22.160 and Kyushu University.

00:03:23.520 The first thing we're going to determine

00:03:26.940 before we dive into the topic at hand

00:03:29.520 is why it might be reasonable

00:03:32.480 and important to listen to Dr. Linsen.

00:03:34.900 So we're going to go through his academic background

00:03:36.980 and then we'll proceed to the main issue.

00:03:41.740 So you did your undergraduate degree at Harvard,

00:03:45.680 if that's right,

00:03:47.000 in physics from 1960.

00:03:48.500 Let's start from there.

00:03:49.440 Okay, yeah.

00:03:51.300 I graduated from Harvard in physics,

00:03:56.240 1960,

00:03:57.440 so it was a long time ago.

00:03:59.360 I realized at that point

00:04:01.600 that I really enjoyed classical physics

00:04:05.660 and actually modern physics

00:04:08.280 seemed in some ways intimidating.

00:04:11.440 So I continued in graduate work

00:04:14.040 in applied mathematics.

00:04:15.460 Harvard was different from other places

00:04:19.620 in applied math.

00:04:21.660 Places like NYU were very heavy

00:04:24.080 into the theoretical aspects of applied math.

00:04:28.960 Harvard, applied math was solving problems

00:04:32.380 with applied math.

00:04:34.060 And they were heavily into problems

00:04:36.760 in meteorology and other things.

00:04:40.180 And so I ended up doing a thesis

00:04:43.660 that was really atmospheric physics.

00:04:47.380 It was the interaction of fluid motions

00:04:50.360 and chemistry and radiative transfer,

00:04:54.720 mostly in the stratosphere.

00:04:57.140 And there were a lot of good problems.

00:04:59.000 I enjoyed it.

00:05:00.120 The one problem with it was

00:05:02.260 there was very little experience with data.

00:05:05.380 And so I went for a postdoctoral period

00:05:10.400 at the University of Washington.

00:05:12.540 And there was a superb data analyst,

00:05:16.120 Dick Reed, who was on the faculty there.

00:05:18.820 He's now deceased.

00:05:21.440 And after that, I went to Norway for a year.

00:05:24.640 And there was a very able

00:05:29.660 and famous dynamic meteorologist there,

00:05:35.020 Arta Leoson.

00:05:37.120 And that was also a pleasure.

00:05:38.920 And during that time,

00:05:40.780 I began working on some other problems,

00:05:44.460 ranging from tides in the atmosphere

00:05:47.000 to some problem called

00:05:49.840 the quasi-biennial oscillation.

00:05:52.460 And you may not realize it,

00:05:56.240 but the wind over the equator

00:05:58.200 at about 15 kilometers, roughly,

00:06:00.920 plus or minus 10,

00:06:03.560 goes from east to west for one year,

00:06:06.880 turns around, goes the other way for another year.

00:06:09.980 The average period is actually about 26 months.

00:06:13.800 And that had been a puzzle.

00:06:15.620 And we managed to find a solution to that puzzle

00:06:22.860 as to how that worked.

00:06:24.480 Probably too complicated to explain.

00:06:27.740 It involves, you know,

00:06:29.300 random waves generated by the cumulus clouds

00:06:32.420 and the tropics interacting with the flow

00:06:35.400 and forming something that essentially

00:06:37.500 would be called a relaxation oscillator.

00:06:39.940 And that's actually held up pretty well

00:06:42.940 for almost 50 years or 60 years.

00:06:47.900 So as theories go, that did well.

00:06:50.520 There was also a problem with tides.

00:06:54.940 I mean, people familiar with tides and the ocean

00:06:57.840 know that they're primarily 12-hour lunar tides.

00:07:02.460 And they're lunar tides because the moon,

00:07:06.020 although much less massive than the sun,

00:07:08.820 is so close that its perturbation

00:07:11.920 to the gravitational potential

00:07:13.700 is greater than that of the sun.

00:07:17.480 But then it was observed that

00:07:19.660 in the pressure at the surface in the earth,

00:07:23.320 the tides were also primarily semi-diurnal,

00:07:27.420 that is, say, 12 hours, but solar.

00:07:29.960 And so that was a bit of a puzzle

00:07:33.500 because that had to be thermal.

00:07:37.240 And Lord Kelvin in the 19th century

00:07:41.280 was asking, you know,

00:07:43.060 given that the 24-hour component was much stronger,

00:07:46.500 why was it 12 hours?

00:07:48.580 And he suggested the atmosphere was resonant at 12 hours.

00:07:54.020 And that actually dominated the literature

00:07:57.640 until the late 50s.

00:08:02.020 Resonant meaning what?

00:08:03.880 Meaning, you know, let's say you have a,

00:08:06.560 oh, a violin or something.

00:08:12.020 You stroke and you get a certain note.

00:08:14.920 That's because it's resonant at that note.

00:08:18.520 It displays that.

00:08:20.280 It vibrates at that note.

00:08:21.320 And so people had figured out, you know,

00:08:27.040 how it might be resonant and so on.

00:08:29.320 But after World War II, when one had rockets,

00:08:32.540 one realized the atmosphere was not the way

00:08:34.940 it had to be to be resonant.

00:08:37.940 And we figured out why the 24-hour got trapped.

00:08:43.600 And so that was kind of fun.

00:08:45.180 It was problems like that

00:08:46.760 that make, in some ways, atmospheric science,

00:08:50.740 meteorology, geology, geophysics,

00:08:53.520 kind of fun.

00:08:55.020 They're great fields.

00:08:56.080 So you liked the physics,

00:09:00.200 you liked physics a little bit more on the concrete side,

00:09:03.160 a little bit more data-driven,

00:09:04.900 a little bit more down-to-earth

00:09:06.160 than the theoretical realm.

00:09:08.000 And then, so you said you were at U Washington

00:09:09.860 to do a postdoc,

00:09:10.920 and then you went to Norway.

00:09:11.860 What happened after that?

00:09:13.060 And then I went to the National Center

00:09:14.880 for Atmospheric Research.

00:09:17.400 And I was a staff scientist there.

00:09:21.800 And there was a sort of reason for it.

00:09:25.180 It was slightly cynical.

00:09:28.640 Some of my classmates had gone into academia,

00:09:33.140 and I was watching it.

00:09:35.200 What a horror show being an assistant professor was.

00:09:39.880 You had insecurity.

00:09:41.760 You had a heavy teaching load.

00:09:43.280 You didn't have time to do the research.

00:09:46.340 So I decided that I would stay at a research center

00:09:49.260 until I was offered tenure.

00:09:51.660 And I was, after a couple of years,

00:09:55.100 offered a tenure post at the University of Chicago.

00:09:59.900 And that was a very nice experience.

00:10:03.480 I loved Chicago.

00:10:04.460 And, but my wife was a little bit insecure

00:10:11.480 about the crime situation on the south side of Chicago.

00:10:17.080 And when Harvard made an offer of a chair,

00:10:22.300 we accepted it.

00:10:24.020 I left Chicago.

00:10:26.500 We came to Harvard.

00:10:27.540 Harvard.

00:10:28.880 And I spent about 10 years there as a,

00:10:34.760 was, I think, eventually,

00:10:39.160 first a Gordon McKay professor.

00:10:42.100 Then there was some other chair.

00:10:44.200 But I had a close colleague at MIT,

00:10:48.860 Jewel Charney,

00:10:49.700 who was a preeminent dynamic meteorologist,

00:10:55.040 but also a very interesting guy,

00:10:57.720 good friend.

00:10:59.120 And he died.

00:11:00.880 And I was offered his chair at MIT.

00:11:04.500 And I took it.

00:11:05.020 When was that?

00:11:05.920 That had to be the early 80s.

00:11:09.160 Okay, so I should just point out

00:11:12.980 for everyone who's watching and listening

00:11:14.760 that this is a pretty,

00:11:17.560 what would you call it,

00:11:18.460 stellar academic track.

00:11:20.000 So first of all,

00:11:20.660 an undergraduate at Harvard

00:11:21.880 and then applied PhD work

00:11:26.480 at the postdoc level

00:11:27.640 in a variety of different places,

00:11:29.260 including research institutions.

00:11:30.980 But the fact that Dr. Lindzen

00:11:33.560 was offered tenure at UChicago,

00:11:35.680 a tenured position to begin with,

00:11:37.000 that's not the normal mode

00:11:38.900 of making an entryway into academia.

00:11:41.920 Usually you start

00:11:42.620 as an assistant professor,

00:11:44.160 and so that's untenured.

00:11:45.840 And it's very rare

00:11:47.080 to be offered a first-time job

00:11:49.100 as a tenured professor.

00:11:51.440 Was that associate level

00:11:52.700 or full professor?

00:11:53.340 That was associate.

00:11:55.220 I wasn't promoted

00:11:56.260 until a few years later.

00:11:59.560 Right.

00:11:59.920 And then, okay,

00:12:00.680 so from the University of Chicago,

00:12:02.220 then you were offered

00:12:02.960 a Harvard chair.

00:12:03.940 And I want to point out

00:12:05.060 to everyone who's watching

00:12:06.280 and listening again,

00:12:07.080 that that's very rare.

00:12:08.200 So at Harvard,

00:12:10.320 the hiring streams

00:12:11.900 are really broken

00:12:12.960 into two segments.

00:12:14.700 And so you have faculty members

00:12:16.800 who are hired

00:12:17.340 as assistant professors,

00:12:18.800 so that's the most junior level

00:12:20.160 of professor.

00:12:20.860 And those positions

00:12:21.580 are not tenured

00:12:22.560 at the Ivy Leagues,

00:12:23.740 generally speaking.

00:12:24.760 And so what the Ivy Leagues do

00:12:26.580 is bring in promising young people

00:12:28.660 at the assistant level,

00:12:29.980 but turn them over.

00:12:31.520 And that gives lots of people

00:12:32.700 a chance to work

00:12:33.520 at the Ivy Leagues,

00:12:34.300 and it gives the students

00:12:35.360 a chance to be in contact

00:12:36.780 with dynamic young researchers,

00:12:39.540 let's say.

00:12:40.520 But the second hiring stream

00:12:42.260 and the more important one

00:12:43.360 is the senior professors,

00:12:45.100 and that's usually

00:12:45.880 at associate

00:12:46.520 or full professor level.

00:12:48.500 And what Harvard did

00:12:49.680 when I was there,

00:12:50.920 that was in the 90s,

00:12:52.340 was,

00:12:52.720 and I am sure

00:12:53.240 the practice still continues

00:12:55.880 and is characteristic

00:12:57.020 of Ivy's in general,

00:12:58.100 is they look all over the world

00:12:59.320 for the people

00:13:00.800 who are doing

00:13:01.180 the top research

00:13:02.080 in their areas

00:13:03.020 at a relatively senior level

00:13:04.900 and then make them an offer,

00:13:07.060 see if they can entice them

00:13:08.060 to come to Harvard.

00:13:08.960 And so that doesn't happen

00:13:09.940 to very many people.

00:13:10.920 It's a very, very rare occurrence.

00:13:12.440 It's not that huge

00:13:13.300 a university, Harvard,

00:13:14.400 and there aren't

00:13:15.100 that many professorships.

00:13:16.420 So to be offered

00:13:17.440 a chair there is,

00:13:18.900 well, it's a mark of,

00:13:20.400 I would say,

00:13:21.000 universal esteem

00:13:22.520 devoted,

00:13:23.620 directed towards

00:13:24.300 a given professor

00:13:25.100 within the confines

00:13:26.160 of their research.

00:13:27.160 And they have to have

00:13:28.020 made quite a splash

00:13:29.060 on the research front

00:13:29.920 for that to happen.

00:13:31.180 And then to move

00:13:31.840 from Harvard to MIT,

00:13:33.180 well, the same thing

00:13:33.980 is the case there

00:13:34.780 because, well,

00:13:36.260 Harvard and MIT

00:13:37.140 battle it out

00:13:37.900 for priority,

00:13:39.000 let's say,

00:13:39.480 for the most prestigious

00:13:41.720 and highest quality

00:13:43.420 university in the U.S.

00:13:45.100 and possibly in the world.

00:13:46.640 You could have

00:13:46.940 an argument about that.

00:13:48.080 But to move

00:13:49.080 from Harvard to MIT

00:13:50.180 is, well,

00:13:51.680 that's another indication

00:13:52.680 of a stellar academic career.

00:13:55.000 So you went to MIT

00:13:55.940 in the 1980s.

00:13:57.340 Yeah.

00:13:57.600 And you were there

00:14:00.100 until you retired?

00:14:01.160 Yeah.

00:14:01.940 Until I retired formally

00:14:04.100 in 2013.

00:14:06.580 But, you know,

00:14:07.320 they've been good to me.

00:14:08.800 I have an office

00:14:09.680 and, you know,

00:14:10.960 some assistants occasionally.

00:14:13.440 And, of course,

00:14:15.020 one of the things is

00:14:15.980 you no longer

00:14:17.040 have students.

00:14:18.660 Well, that's a bit

00:14:19.720 of a drawback.

00:14:20.700 I've occasionally,

00:14:21.560 however,

00:14:22.100 have colleagues.

00:14:23.060 And even,

00:14:26.160 you know,

00:14:26.720 at the end of it,

00:14:28.400 for reasons

00:14:30.560 that are obvious,

00:14:31.280 I had almost no funding.

00:14:33.820 But there were

00:14:34.840 some postdocs

00:14:35.920 who paid their way

00:14:37.700 from South Korea.

00:14:40.400 So that was helpful.

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00:16:21.080 So,

00:16:21.820 so did you have a preference

00:16:23.200 for Harvard or MIT

00:16:24.460 in terms of the students

00:16:26.240 you encountered?

00:16:28.800 Not really.

00:16:30.060 I mean,

00:16:30.620 the students I encountered

00:16:32.260 changed over time

00:16:34.480 more than they changed

00:16:35.760 with place.

00:16:36.520 when I

00:16:38.920 came to Harvard,

00:16:42.520 the students

00:16:43.300 in my area

00:16:44.440 were,

00:16:46.340 I would say,

00:16:47.220 in some ways

00:16:47.840 coming from

00:16:48.980 math and physics

00:16:50.680 mostly.

00:16:52.680 They were the overflow,

00:16:54.460 and there were lots of

00:16:55.700 kids studying math and physics.

00:16:57.880 So,

00:16:58.780 they were good,

00:17:00.260 you know,

00:17:00.620 very good in fact.

00:17:02.540 And that was sort of true

00:17:03.900 when I came to MIT.

00:17:05.100 but

00:17:07.180 by the 90s

00:17:09.660 things changed

00:17:12.440 a little bit.

00:17:14.720 First of all,

00:17:16.980 good students

00:17:17.980 were

00:17:18.800 not entering

00:17:20.440 physics and math

00:17:21.720 at the level

00:17:23.340 that they had once

00:17:24.360 had,

00:17:25.120 did.

00:17:27.020 The best students

00:17:28.500 often were

00:17:29.080 going into finance,

00:17:31.700 things like that.

00:17:32.660 Right, right.

00:17:33.200 And so,

00:17:35.840 there was no overflow.

00:17:37.940 And I think

00:17:38.600 there was a slight

00:17:39.900 change in the nature

00:17:41.160 of students.

00:17:42.560 They were not

00:17:43.540 as theoretical.

00:17:44.620 They were more

00:17:45.100 model-oriented

00:17:46.200 and so on.

00:17:48.260 There was also

00:17:49.620 a change

00:17:51.200 at MIT,

00:17:51.960 which was

00:17:53.000 not something

00:17:54.140 we wanted,

00:17:55.860 which is,

00:17:56.480 it was getting

00:17:57.040 harder and harder

00:17:58.120 to find people

00:17:59.680 working with data.

00:18:00.660 and so

00:18:03.120 the students

00:18:03.760 were getting

00:18:04.200 less experience

00:18:05.600 with actual data.

00:18:08.100 But those

00:18:08.500 are changes,

00:18:09.440 I mean,

00:18:10.640 compared to

00:18:11.640 current changes,

00:18:13.580 they probably

00:18:14.180 were minor.

00:18:15.560 I mean,

00:18:15.840 at the moment,

00:18:16.760 I just find

00:18:19.280 it strange.

00:18:21.100 There's so much

00:18:21.760 emphasis on

00:18:22.840 racism in the

00:18:24.120 sciences

00:18:25.080 and so on.

00:18:26.680 I'm sort of glad

00:18:27.840 I'm not teaching

00:18:28.660 at this point.

00:18:29.520 Yeah,

00:18:31.360 yeah,

00:18:31.700 well,

00:18:32.600 it's that

00:18:33.720 one-trick pony,

00:18:36.040 that ideological

00:18:36.840 insistence

00:18:37.860 that something

00:18:39.780 approximating

00:18:40.520 critical race theory

00:18:41.500 should dominate

00:18:42.180 every single

00:18:42.940 discipline.

00:18:43.880 And it gives

00:18:44.900 people who really

00:18:45.660 have no background

00:18:46.680 whatsoever in

00:18:47.620 these fields

00:18:48.200 the opportunity

00:18:48.860 to dominate.

00:18:49.880 And it's really

00:18:50.960 quite an appalling

00:18:51.680 thing to see.

00:18:52.680 Yeah,

00:18:53.120 we'll see one

00:18:53.840 other thing,

00:18:54.620 too,

00:18:54.900 which is the

00:18:56.800 vast increase

00:18:59.220 in both numbers,

00:19:01.500 power,

00:19:02.020 and importance

00:19:02.880 of administrators.

00:19:05.760 Yes,

00:19:06.160 yes,

00:19:06.560 definitely.

00:19:08.020 Yeah.

00:19:08.360 I mean,

00:19:08.620 yeah,

00:19:08.880 well,

00:19:09.180 you know,

00:19:09.540 it's,

00:19:10.480 I think in some

00:19:12.560 ways we live

00:19:13.140 inside a giant

00:19:13.940 whale carcass

00:19:14.760 that's walking

00:19:15.360 on the beach.

00:19:16.720 Well,

00:19:17.300 really,

00:19:17.800 it's a good

00:19:18.620 biological metaphor.

00:19:19.660 And there's

00:19:20.180 plenty of food

00:19:21.480 for everyone

00:19:22.280 for a very

00:19:23.440 short period

00:19:24.120 of time.

00:19:24.760 And the

00:19:25.340 administrative

00:19:26.000 overload in

00:19:26.740 the university

00:19:27.240 is something

00:19:27.980 remarkable to

00:19:29.000 behold,

00:19:29.520 especially because

00:19:30.240 it's been built

00:19:30.940 on the backs

00:19:31.560 of students

00:19:32.160 and their

00:19:32.520 student loan,

00:19:33.580 their student loan.

00:19:34.320 Oh, yeah,

00:19:34.780 but it's not.

00:19:35.480 Like indentured

00:19:36.040 servitude,

00:19:36.780 I would say.

00:19:37.320 It's more than

00:19:38.240 that.

00:19:41.000 It's,

00:19:41.580 you know,

00:19:42.280 you now have

00:19:43.460 administrators

00:19:44.760 certainly outnumbering

00:19:46.500 faculty,

00:19:47.880 and in many

00:19:48.400 places,

00:19:48.840 outnumbering

00:19:49.620 faculty and

00:19:50.400 students.

00:19:52.760 And they

00:19:53.520 need money,

00:19:54.640 but they do

00:19:55.680 not do the

00:19:56.420 functions that

00:19:57.840 the university

00:19:58.520 gets paid for,

00:19:59.800 teaching,

00:20:00.540 research,

00:20:01.100 and so on.

00:20:02.460 And so we

00:20:03.460 have overhead

00:20:04.220 on the grants,

00:20:05.800 and that has

00:20:06.680 become critically

00:20:07.940 important.

00:20:10.480 The more

00:20:11.320 overhead,

00:20:12.020 the better

00:20:12.420 the administration

00:20:13.140 likes you.

00:20:14.120 So, you know,

00:20:15.300 if you have a

00:20:15.940 big laboratory,

00:20:17.460 you'll have

00:20:18.180 more overhead

00:20:18.820 than someone

00:20:19.540 who does

00:20:20.020 theory.

00:20:22.600 And if you're

00:20:23.520 at show...

00:20:23.880 Well, when I

00:20:24.280 was there,

00:20:24.860 we were paying

00:20:25.640 about 50%

00:20:26.660 in overhead costs,

00:20:27.980 if I remember

00:20:28.500 correctly,

00:20:29.000 for a given

00:20:29.480 grant.

00:20:30.320 So scientists

00:20:30.820 spent about a

00:20:31.600 third of their

00:20:32.080 time in the

00:20:32.600 United States.

00:20:33.560 It's one of the

00:20:33.900 reasons I was

00:20:34.400 actually happy to

00:20:35.160 come back to

00:20:35.660 Canada.

00:20:36.120 The scientists

00:20:36.660 I knew in the

00:20:37.360 U.S.

00:20:38.160 were spending

00:20:38.680 one-third of

00:20:39.700 their time...

00:20:40.620 Writing proposals.

00:20:41.320 Taking a shot

00:20:42.300 at about a 5%

00:20:43.660 chance at getting

00:20:44.820 a large grant,

00:20:45.640 and 50%

00:20:46.500 of that went

00:20:47.240 to overhead.

00:20:48.320 Yeah, it was

00:20:48.700 quite the waste

00:20:50.560 of time for the

00:20:51.420 scientific community

00:20:52.320 because that

00:20:53.400 meant the

00:20:54.940 brightest people

00:20:55.800 in our

00:20:57.700 community were

00:20:58.840 spending 30%

00:21:01.220 of their time

00:21:01.700 at least

00:21:02.520 writing grants

00:21:03.620 that had a

00:21:04.100 pretty low

00:21:04.500 probability of

00:21:05.360 success.

00:21:05.920 Yeah.

00:21:06.480 Instead of...

00:21:07.080 And then, you know,

00:21:07.860 well, and you know,

00:21:08.780 of course, that the

00:21:09.820 problem with writing

00:21:10.620 grants is that

00:21:11.540 you tend to have to

00:21:13.500 study trendy topics

00:21:14.860 and you also

00:21:16.100 can't be very

00:21:16.960 daring.

00:21:17.560 You have to take

00:21:18.140 the next obvious

00:21:19.100 step in some real

00:21:20.300 sense and only in

00:21:21.980 the approved

00:21:22.480 direction.

00:21:23.240 And so that

00:21:24.120 whole granting

00:21:24.760 system to me

00:21:25.580 looked like

00:21:26.140 something approximating

00:21:28.020 the death of

00:21:28.720 exploratory science.

00:21:30.420 Well, that

00:21:31.640 actually also

00:21:32.880 evolved over

00:21:34.060 time.

00:21:35.120 When I entered

00:21:36.000 academia, the

00:21:37.480 National Science

00:21:38.400 Foundation actually

00:21:39.920 had very few

00:21:40.940 staff.

00:21:41.440 and they

00:21:43.080 were eager to

00:21:43.880 give out money.

00:21:44.640 There wasn't

00:21:45.120 that much demand

00:21:46.540 for it.

00:21:48.720 Right.

00:21:49.240 But as the

00:21:49.980 administration

00:21:50.500 grew, there

00:21:52.000 was also...

00:21:53.800 I mean, the

00:21:54.300 administration

00:21:54.740 plays a large

00:21:55.880 role in the

00:21:58.380 behavior of

00:21:59.340 departments.

00:22:01.120 Young faculty

00:22:02.320 today, I

00:22:03.460 mean, are

00:22:04.280 sunk if they

00:22:05.780 don't get

00:22:06.220 grants.

00:22:08.020 Oh, yeah.

00:22:08.520 And when

00:22:11.820 we get to

00:22:12.420 climate, you

00:22:13.320 don't get

00:22:13.720 grants if you

00:22:14.620 question the

00:22:15.800 current narrative.

00:22:17.340 So let's

00:22:19.220 delve into that

00:22:19.960 a bit.

00:22:20.260 When you were

00:22:20.620 at MIT and

00:22:22.620 at Harvard,

00:22:23.540 how many papers

00:22:24.760 have you published

00:22:25.560 approximately,

00:22:26.660 you and your

00:22:27.040 colleagues?

00:22:27.820 250 or so.

00:22:30.720 Okay, so for

00:22:31.480 those of you who

00:22:32.220 are watching and

00:22:32.940 listening, and

00:22:33.460 correct me if you

00:22:34.220 think I'm making

00:22:35.140 an error in

00:22:35.760 proposition here,

00:22:37.920 there, so

00:22:38.700 when I was

00:22:39.780 working as a

00:22:41.580 faculty member,

00:22:42.180 we kind of had a

00:22:42.920 rule of thumb in

00:22:43.660 the psychology

00:22:44.200 department, which

00:22:45.040 was that if a

00:22:46.480 student prepared

00:22:47.360 three publishable

00:22:49.200 papers that were

00:22:50.500 sequentially linked,

00:22:51.740 added an

00:22:52.220 introduction to

00:22:52.880 that, and a

00:22:53.360 conclusion, we

00:22:54.400 would basically

00:22:55.000 accept that as

00:22:55.960 a thesis.

00:22:56.720 And so the

00:22:57.140 rough equivalence

00:22:57.960 was three

00:22:58.540 published papers

00:22:59.500 equals a PhD

00:23:00.780 thesis.

00:23:01.880 And you've

00:23:02.920 published 250

00:23:04.080 papers, so in

00:23:05.400 some real sense,

00:23:06.340 that's equivalent

00:23:06.980 to 80 PhDs.

00:23:08.940 Now, what do

00:23:09.660 you think of

00:23:10.060 that for a

00:23:10.760 line of logic?

00:23:11.880 Not much, but

00:23:12.940 to be honest.

00:23:14.220 Okay, so, well,

00:23:15.560 I'm trying to give

00:23:16.240 everyone, well, I'm

00:23:17.100 trying to give

00:23:17.540 everyone watching

00:23:18.300 and listening a

00:23:19.160 sense, because

00:23:20.100 people don't

00:23:20.640 really know what

00:23:21.360 it means to

00:23:21.920 have a publication

00:23:22.740 record like that.

00:23:23.840 Well, I mean.

00:23:24.820 Because, so

00:23:25.920 that's what I'm

00:23:26.580 trying to elucidate.

00:23:27.680 Yeah, I think

00:23:28.920 it's also a

00:23:30.220 matter that has

00:23:30.920 changed with

00:23:31.660 time.

00:23:32.200 I mean, people

00:23:34.700 like, well,

00:23:37.020 Jewel Charney, who

00:23:37.960 I mentioned, who

00:23:38.840 is the leading

00:23:39.760 figure in dynamic

00:23:41.140 meteorology, probably

00:23:42.600 published 60

00:23:43.540 papers.

00:23:45.660 Arne Taliesin, who

00:23:47.260 was also a

00:23:48.080 terrific influence,

00:23:49.800 something that

00:23:50.480 order.

00:23:51.860 The pressures to

00:23:53.160 publish have

00:23:54.680 increased.

00:23:55.360 And so, people's

00:23:59.080 behavior is

00:23:59.980 different.

00:24:00.800 Also, publication

00:24:01.700 has become a

00:24:02.900 very different

00:24:03.580 issue.

00:24:06.020 You probably

00:24:07.380 know that before

00:24:08.740 World War II,

00:24:11.060 peer review was

00:24:12.460 very rare.

00:24:14.880 And if I have

00:24:15.780 students read

00:24:16.660 papers from the

00:24:17.900 19th century or

00:24:19.960 the early 20th

00:24:21.420 century, they're

00:24:23.060 quite surprised to

00:24:24.440 read them.

00:24:25.360 Why?

00:24:26.060 Because they're

00:24:26.860 informal.

00:24:28.320 They're

00:24:28.660 communications.

00:24:30.340 They're not

00:24:31.000 assertions of

00:24:32.080 truth.

00:24:33.520 They are

00:24:34.400 looking for

00:24:36.700 truth.

00:24:39.880 And, you

00:24:42.900 know, after

00:24:44.020 the war, for a

00:24:45.200 variety of

00:24:45.860 reasons, a

00:24:47.860 peer review

00:24:48.380 entered, largely

00:24:49.380 because there was

00:24:50.420 too much demand

00:24:51.280 for publication.

00:24:52.580 There may even

00:24:53.060 have been a

00:24:53.540 shortage of

00:24:54.140 paper.

00:24:55.360 But, for

00:24:56.600 instance, the

00:24:57.220 quarterly journal

00:24:58.160 of the Royal

00:24:58.880 Meteorological

00:24:59.740 Society in the

00:25:00.900 UK had a

00:25:02.540 wonderful statement

00:25:03.740 of what the

00:25:04.820 reviewer was

00:25:06.420 supposed to do.

00:25:08.100 And it said,

00:25:08.920 you can only

00:25:09.660 reject a paper

00:25:10.920 for two reasons.

00:25:12.980 One is an

00:25:13.960 overt mathematical

00:25:15.240 error or

00:25:17.480 lack of

00:25:18.640 originality.

00:25:19.560 paper.

00:25:20.560 The paper

00:25:21.840 then would be

00:25:22.960 discussed at the

00:25:24.000 monthly meeting

00:25:24.900 and the

00:25:26.220 discussion would

00:25:27.200 be included

00:25:27.880 with the

00:25:28.480 paper.

00:25:30.300 There was no

00:25:30.860 essential thought

00:25:32.380 that peer

00:25:33.580 review, I mean,

00:25:34.240 peer review, the

00:25:35.520 public has been

00:25:36.680 made to think

00:25:37.500 that this is a

00:25:39.000 certification of

00:25:40.220 the paper,

00:25:40.780 paper, that it

00:25:42.920 is somehow

00:25:44.100 proven right.

00:25:45.840 Now it's

00:25:46.280 fact, right,

00:25:47.360 right.

00:25:47.500 Yeah.

00:25:48.000 And it's

00:25:48.660 nothing of the

00:25:49.400 sort.

00:25:50.780 It is to see

00:25:52.360 if the stuff

00:25:54.060 is interesting

00:25:55.500 and it's

00:25:58.120 not overtly

00:25:59.380 wrong

00:26:00.200 mathematically

00:26:01.080 and not

00:26:02.860 plagiarized.

00:26:05.260 On the

00:26:06.140 other hand,

00:26:06.980 it's become

00:26:07.840 something more.

00:26:10.480 I mentioned,

00:26:11.660 you know,

00:26:11.960 I had two

00:26:12.900 papers that

00:26:13.740 appeared in

00:26:15.120 the bulletin

00:26:15.780 of the

00:26:16.100 American

00:26:16.460 Meteorological

00:26:17.300 Society that

00:26:18.260 dealt with

00:26:19.060 climate and

00:26:20.900 my objections

00:26:22.220 to the

00:26:22.920 current narrative

00:26:23.760 in various

00:26:24.840 ways.

00:26:25.500 and they

00:26:27.840 got published,

00:26:29.380 they got

00:26:29.800 reviewed, but

00:26:31.560 in both cases

00:26:32.300 the editor was

00:26:33.140 fired immediately.

00:26:36.320 Oh, yeah.

00:26:36.980 Oh, that's

00:26:37.460 cute.

00:26:38.720 That was

00:26:39.480 when?

00:26:40.320 When did

00:26:41.160 that happen?

00:26:41.620 One was

00:26:42.580 2000,

00:26:45.800 one was

00:26:46.640 1991 or

00:26:47.980 two, and

00:26:49.240 the other

00:26:49.540 one was...

00:26:50.000 So you were

00:26:50.460 on this early.

00:26:52.040 Oh, well,

00:26:52.720 you know,

00:26:53.140 this issue

00:26:54.600 actually

00:26:55.980 began in

00:26:57.380 the 60s.

00:26:59.600 Right.

00:27:00.660 And

00:27:01.180 it was

00:27:03.080 clear there

00:27:03.720 was a lot

00:27:04.220 of hunting

00:27:04.740 around for

00:27:06.560 some environmental

00:27:07.700 issue that

00:27:08.920 would give

00:27:09.340 people power

00:27:10.120 on the energy

00:27:10.860 sector,

00:27:11.620 over the

00:27:12.120 energy sector.

00:27:13.100 And so,

00:27:15.260 you know,

00:27:15.520 you had

00:27:15.860 Earth Day

00:27:16.540 in the

00:27:16.940 early 60s.

00:27:19.480 But then

00:27:20.260 you had

00:27:20.680 global cooling,

00:27:22.660 and the

00:27:23.160 villain there

00:27:23.920 was...

00:27:24.740 That was

00:27:24.900 the 70s.

00:27:25.820 Yeah.

00:27:26.360 Well, it was

00:27:26.900 60s and

00:27:27.980 70s, and

00:27:29.000 continued to

00:27:29.780 the 70s.

00:27:31.540 And the

00:27:32.220 notion there

00:27:32.940 is you

00:27:33.820 wanted to

00:27:34.260 get rid of

00:27:34.880 coal-fired

00:27:35.780 plants,

00:27:36.420 because they

00:27:38.400 were polluting

00:27:39.760 and creating

00:27:40.860 sulfates that

00:27:42.500 were reflecting

00:27:43.220 light and

00:27:43.920 causing global

00:27:44.780 cooling.

00:27:46.960 You also

00:27:47.620 had acid

00:27:48.440 rain at

00:27:49.340 that time.

00:27:50.620 Yeah.

00:27:51.040 And again,

00:27:51.940 get rid of

00:27:52.540 the energy

00:27:53.140 sector.

00:27:55.040 And both

00:27:56.340 of those

00:27:56.760 turned out

00:27:57.280 to be

00:27:57.680 duds.

00:27:59.300 And this

00:28:00.840 global mean

00:28:01.620 temperature metric,

00:28:02.940 whatever it is,

00:28:03.820 started increasing

00:28:05.600 in the 70s.

00:28:06.640 And they

00:28:06.920 said,

00:28:07.260 this won't

00:28:08.160 go.

00:28:09.440 And for

00:28:11.680 a number

00:28:12.140 of reasons,

00:28:13.020 CO2 came

00:28:14.040 into the

00:28:14.560 issue.

00:28:14.980 One of the

00:28:15.440 reasons was

00:28:16.160 the International

00:28:16.980 Geophysical

00:28:17.840 Year began

00:28:19.280 a measurement

00:28:19.920 program for

00:28:21.180 CO2 at

00:28:23.160 Mauna Loa

00:28:23.840 Observatory in

00:28:25.160 Hawaii.

00:28:27.200 And this

00:28:27.780 was Charles

00:28:30.540 Keeling,

00:28:31.860 and it

00:28:32.760 was promoted

00:28:33.420 by a

00:28:34.240 man called

00:28:34.740 Roger

00:28:35.160 Revelle,

00:28:36.040 who was

00:28:38.740 director at

00:28:39.820 Scripps,

00:28:40.640 which is an

00:28:41.200 oceanographic

00:28:41.880 institution in

00:28:43.080 California.

00:28:45.780 At any

00:28:46.020 rate,

00:28:46.240 they noticed

00:28:46.820 CO2 has

00:28:47.720 been increasing.

00:28:49.660 And the

00:28:50.740 evidence is

00:28:51.560 it's been

00:28:52.120 increasing since

00:28:53.280 the industrial

00:28:54.240 era began,

00:28:55.300 but serious

00:28:57.140 levels,

00:28:59.140 at least

00:28:59.600 measurable,

00:29:00.860 were being

00:29:01.360 reached in

00:29:01.920 the 50s,

00:29:02.560 60s,

00:29:03.120 where it

00:29:03.460 was perhaps

00:29:04.840 significant in

00:29:07.600 terms of

00:29:08.060 heating.

00:29:10.020 Why did

00:29:10.740 they start

00:29:11.160 measuring it?

00:29:12.720 Well,

00:29:13.340 curiosity.

00:29:15.620 Yeah,

00:29:16.020 okay.

00:29:17.260 So that was

00:29:18.020 just, they were

00:29:18.840 just curious to

00:29:19.660 begin with.

00:29:20.200 Yeah.

00:29:20.900 I mean, it's

00:29:22.020 an interesting

00:29:22.660 chemical.

00:29:23.320 It plays a

00:29:23.860 role in the,

00:29:24.640 I mean,

00:29:25.200 photosynthesis.

00:29:26.440 It's vital.

00:29:26.940 we have, you

00:29:28.280 know, like

00:29:28.660 40,000 parts

00:29:29.840 per million

00:29:30.440 in our

00:29:31.020 breath.

00:29:32.180 So, you

00:29:32.800 know, it's

00:29:33.100 an interesting

00:29:33.660 substance.

00:29:35.600 And part of

00:29:36.640 the reason it's

00:29:37.340 interesting is,

00:29:38.540 of course, that

00:29:39.200 it has

00:29:40.460 infrared

00:29:41.040 absorption,

00:29:42.540 and so it

00:29:43.280 plays a role

00:29:44.080 in what is

00:29:44.780 called the

00:29:45.200 greenhouse

00:29:45.560 effect.

00:29:47.560 Okay, so

00:29:48.580 they found

00:29:49.180 it, and

00:29:50.600 the question

00:29:51.240 then was,

00:29:52.080 what are

00:29:53.300 the

00:29:53.440 implications?

00:29:56.180 But more

00:29:57.060 than that,

00:29:58.240 if you were

00:29:58.800 interested in

00:29:59.660 controlling the

00:30:00.420 energy sector,

00:30:02.440 is the fact

00:30:03.380 that no matter

00:30:04.040 how clean

00:30:05.320 you made

00:30:06.860 the burning

00:30:07.420 of fossil

00:30:08.080 fuels,

00:30:09.900 you would

00:30:10.300 inevitably be

00:30:11.400 left with

00:30:11.980 the product

00:30:12.680 of clean

00:30:13.780 burning,

00:30:14.660 which was

00:30:15.080 CO2.

00:30:16.880 I see, I

00:30:17.600 see.

00:30:17.900 So this was

00:30:18.460 one...

00:30:19.040 You couldn't

00:30:19.480 get rid of

00:30:20.040 it.

00:30:20.860 Pollutant,

00:30:21.540 I see,

00:30:21.940 I see.

00:30:22.540 So how clean

00:30:23.620 the fossil

00:30:24.220 fuel energy

00:30:24.980 became,

00:30:26.240 they were

00:30:26.800 never going

00:30:27.200 to get rid

00:30:27.580 of carbon

00:30:27.960 dioxide.

00:30:28.220 So that

00:30:29.000 was a good...

00:30:29.680 Now, why do

00:30:30.680 you think

00:30:31.020 there was

00:30:31.360 attempts to...

00:30:32.360 You talked

00:30:32.920 about control

00:30:33.520 of the

00:30:33.820 energy sector.

00:30:34.780 Why bring

00:30:35.520 that into

00:30:36.040 it?

00:30:37.060 Well, I

00:30:38.060 mean, your

00:30:38.760 guess is as

00:30:39.500 good as

00:30:39.860 mine, but

00:30:40.420 it obviously

00:30:41.180 is at the

00:30:42.200 heart of

00:30:43.580 industrial

00:30:44.080 development.

00:30:45.080 It's at the

00:30:45.560 heart of the

00:30:46.820 prosperity of

00:30:47.700 the West.

00:30:49.300 You had all

00:30:50.240 these Malthusian

00:30:51.560 movements,

00:30:52.340 Paul Ehrlich,

00:30:53.260 John Holdren,

00:30:54.780 zero population

00:30:55.960 growth.

00:30:58.360 And, you

00:30:58.900 know, you

00:30:59.160 see now, I

00:31:00.140 mean, a

00:31:00.480 kind of

00:31:01.280 antipathy to

00:31:03.220 the working

00:31:03.680 middle class.

00:31:05.400 You know, you

00:31:06.080 begin to feel

00:31:06.840 there were

00:31:07.180 people who

00:31:07.780 resented the

00:31:08.680 fact that

00:31:10.020 ordinary people

00:31:11.060 were aspiring

00:31:12.000 to live

00:31:13.600 decently,

00:31:14.740 have a car,

00:31:16.020 own a house,

00:31:17.800 and for some

00:31:18.440 reason, I

00:31:18.880 think that

00:31:19.260 warm.

00:31:19.860 Yeah, right.

00:31:21.800 You know, have

00:31:22.620 a dishwasher.

00:31:25.200 And I

00:31:26.100 don't know

00:31:26.520 why, but

00:31:27.220 there is

00:31:28.240 almost an

00:31:28.880 antipathy to

00:31:29.820 this.

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00:32:40.440 I was talking

00:32:41.560 to Alex Epstein

00:32:42.420 recently.

00:32:43.140 He wrote a

00:32:43.460 book called

00:32:43.840 Fossil Fuel.

00:32:44.500 Oh, yeah.

00:32:44.900 He attempted

00:32:47.220 to lay out

00:32:47.900 some of the

00:32:48.500 you might

00:32:49.000 think theological

00:32:49.860 or metaphysical

00:32:50.780 presuppositions

00:32:51.700 underlying this

00:32:52.540 and your

00:32:53.400 comment on

00:32:54.120 envy is an

00:32:55.380 interesting one

00:32:56.180 that there's

00:32:57.260 some antipathy

00:32:58.060 towards having

00:32:59.540 ordinary people

00:33:00.560 thrive, which is

00:33:01.780 a pretty nasty

00:33:02.400 form of

00:33:02.900 antipathy.

00:33:03.980 His point was

00:33:04.840 that I guess

00:33:06.740 there were two,

00:33:07.720 one on the

00:33:08.260 Malthusian front

00:33:09.100 and one on the

00:33:09.740 more quasi-religious

00:33:10.860 front is that

00:33:11.600 there's an idea

00:33:12.320 that the only

00:33:13.880 acceptable natural

00:33:15.420 landscape in some

00:33:16.640 real sense is one

00:33:17.760 that's been

00:33:18.180 completely untouched

00:33:19.440 by human beings.

00:33:21.240 And so if that's

00:33:22.780 your presupposition

00:33:23.760 to begin with,

00:33:24.500 then anything that

00:33:25.200 has to do with

00:33:25.920 industry is going

00:33:27.440 to be, let's say,

00:33:28.880 persona non grata.

00:33:30.520 And then if you

00:33:31.540 combine that with

00:33:32.340 this Malthusian

00:33:33.300 notion, which we

00:33:34.100 could go into a

00:33:34.780 little bit.

00:33:35.220 So the Malthusian

00:33:36.480 notion for everyone

00:33:37.580 watching and

00:33:38.280 listening is it's

00:33:39.540 based on something

00:33:40.260 like a Petri dish

00:33:41.260 model.

00:33:41.740 So a Petri dish is

00:33:42.640 an enclosed plastic

00:33:43.740 container that has

00:33:44.620 a medium in it,

00:33:46.020 often agar, which

00:33:47.400 is a kind of

00:33:48.140 gelatin that you

00:33:49.360 can grow

00:33:49.800 microorganisms on.

00:33:51.180 And if you throw

00:33:52.600 a microorganism in

00:33:53.680 there, it'll start

00:33:54.300 to multiply until

00:33:55.280 it eats up all

00:33:56.300 of the agar and

00:33:57.080 then it'll all die.

00:33:58.700 And so there's

00:33:59.860 this idea that's

00:34:01.160 in some sense a

00:34:02.040 biological idea that

00:34:03.160 populations left to

00:34:04.580 their own devices

00:34:05.380 will multiply until

00:34:07.040 they devour all

00:34:08.060 their resources and

00:34:09.480 then they will

00:34:09.920 perish en masse.

00:34:11.720 And the

00:34:12.540 Malthusian

00:34:13.300 predictions of

00:34:14.120 population collapse

00:34:15.460 that started to

00:34:16.240 emerge in the

00:34:16.860 60s were based on

00:34:18.160 this Petri dish

00:34:19.140 model in some

00:34:19.860 real sense.

00:34:20.660 And the problem

00:34:21.780 with that model is

00:34:22.760 that it isn't

00:34:23.820 obvious that

00:34:24.440 single-celled

00:34:25.160 organisms are a

00:34:26.000 good metaphor for

00:34:26.840 human beings because

00:34:27.920 we're capable of

00:34:28.900 extremely radical

00:34:29.900 adaptation and

00:34:31.020 transformation,

00:34:32.240 whereas single-celled

00:34:33.300 organisms just

00:34:34.020 basically run out

00:34:34.940 something like an

00:34:35.620 algorithmic program,

00:34:36.880 even though they're

00:34:37.420 quite complex.

00:34:38.240 And so the

00:34:39.560 notion that human

00:34:40.420 populations are

00:34:41.400 destined to a

00:34:43.480 Malthusian end is

00:34:44.780 not, what would

00:34:46.320 you call it, it is

00:34:47.200 not a canonical

00:34:48.940 biological fact, let's

00:34:51.100 put it that way.

00:34:52.060 But it's certainly

00:34:52.780 driving a lot of this

00:34:53.960 sort of thing we're

00:34:54.620 talking about.

00:34:55.560 Yeah, I mean, it's a

00:34:57.280 little bit tricky in a

00:34:58.740 sense what motivates

00:35:00.280 people.

00:35:00.760 It's clear that at the

00:35:03.060 top they have no

00:35:04.920 interest in restricting

00:35:06.440 their own consumption.

00:35:10.380 It's also very much,

00:35:13.740 I mean, you know, when

00:35:15.720 you try and figure out

00:35:17.240 what's the right

00:35:19.060 population, I guess in

00:35:20.380 some sense you could

00:35:21.620 say there must be some

00:35:23.980 limit, but, you know,

00:35:25.860 you look at India in my

00:35:27.760 lifetime.

00:35:28.480 I mean, before

00:35:32.660 independence and even

00:35:34.100 shortly after, its

00:35:36.080 population was, what,

00:35:37.700 under 200 million, and

00:35:40.460 famine was common.

00:35:42.200 and today it's 1.3

00:35:47.000 billion, and they're

00:35:48.580 food exporters.

00:35:50.580 Right, right.

00:35:51.920 Yeah, I just saw a

00:35:52.960 chart the other day, too,

00:35:54.160 that showed that over

00:35:55.540 about the last 10

00:35:56.680 years, a fair bit of

00:35:59.080 farmland has been

00:35:59.980 taken out of

00:36:01.340 production, and some of

00:36:02.440 that's reverted to the

00:36:03.360 wild, and yet, despite

00:36:05.080 there being less farmland

00:36:06.460 being used now, the

00:36:07.980 amount of food that the

00:36:09.620 world is producing is

00:36:10.520 still increasing at a

00:36:11.660 pretty damn rapid rate,

00:36:13.200 and so it isn't obvious

00:36:14.260 at all what the upper

00:36:15.220 bound is for population

00:36:16.540 capacity.

00:36:17.740 Oh, yeah, I mean, you

00:36:19.720 know, agriculture has

00:36:20.900 become far more

00:36:21.860 efficient, and, you

00:36:23.460 know, this leads to

00:36:25.220 this peculiar emphasis

00:36:27.300 on food that has not

00:36:32.680 used fertilizer and so

00:36:34.220 on, you know, which

00:36:36.960 would lead...

00:36:37.160 Yeah, like, that's

00:36:37.780 going to...

00:36:38.240 We're not at that

00:36:39.000 point yet.

00:36:39.540 That would lead to

00:36:40.640 starvation.

00:36:42.700 Mm-hmm.

00:36:43.260 Yeah.

00:36:43.900 Without ammonia, it's

00:36:45.020 four billion people would

00:36:46.240 die without ammonia

00:36:47.140 fertilizer.

00:36:47.920 That's the estimates at

00:36:48.820 the moment.

00:36:49.320 Yeah, I mean, so,

00:36:51.080 everything about this is

00:36:53.140 sort of nuts.

00:36:56.160 Alex Epstein, who you

00:36:57.800 mentioned, you know,

00:36:58.760 pointed this out, but

00:37:00.000 it's kind of obvious.

00:37:03.440 I've noted this.

00:37:04.560 I mean, you could do

00:37:07.600 everything, you know,

00:37:08.920 bury Europe, bury the

00:37:12.560 U.S., Canada, get rid of

00:37:15.400 all their emissions, period,

00:37:18.620 all dead and buried.

00:37:21.720 And it would make very

00:37:23.220 little difference to the

00:37:25.280 growth of CO2, since most

00:37:28.180 of the world is not this

00:37:30.820 stupid, as to commit

00:37:33.100 suicide.

00:37:33.660 Right, right.

00:37:33.980 And so, if you really

00:37:36.380 believe the cataclysmic

00:37:38.460 claims, which have no

00:37:40.200 scientific basis, but let's

00:37:42.860 say they're true, you're

00:37:44.700 doing nothing to stop it.

00:37:47.600 On the contrary, you're

00:37:50.020 impoverishing your societies

00:37:51.840 and making them less

00:37:54.120 resilient.

00:37:54.780 Because if you think

00:37:56.860 natural disasters are

00:37:58.300 coming, where would you

00:37:59.920 rather be today?

00:38:01.120 Haiti?

00:38:02.640 Or in Chicago?

00:38:04.580 Or New York?

00:38:05.900 Or Los Angeles?

00:38:07.600 Well, it's also the case,

00:38:08.940 it's also the case that I

00:38:11.240 don't, I don't see any

00:38:12.760 evidence at all.

00:38:13.780 Because you could make a

00:38:14.680 case, arguably, if you

00:38:17.540 believe the carbon dioxide

00:38:19.280 climate catastrophe

00:38:20.520 narrative, you could make a

00:38:22.480 case that it's ethically

00:38:24.520 required to impoverish

00:38:26.020 people, if you could

00:38:27.340 demonstrate that that

00:38:28.400 impoverishment actually

00:38:29.540 produced, let's say, a

00:38:31.380 decrease in carbon output.

00:38:32.860 But that certainly isn't

00:38:34.440 what's happened in

00:38:35.460 Germany, since Germany's

00:38:36.840 gone madly green.

00:38:38.000 In fact, their energy

00:38:39.540 production is much less

00:38:42.220 efficient than it was 10

00:38:43.460 years ago, and it's five

00:38:44.460 times as expensive, and it

00:38:45.820 pollutes far more.

00:38:47.380 Yeah.

00:38:47.640 And so, my sense is that,

00:38:50.060 and I think the data bear

00:38:51.260 this out, too, is that if

00:38:52.500 you provided people with

00:38:53.800 cheap, clean energy on a

00:38:56.380 world basis and eradicated

00:38:58.420 absolute poverty, or at

00:39:00.160 least ameliorated to the

00:39:01.300 degree that was possible,

00:39:02.380 then people start caring

00:39:03.700 about the long term, and

00:39:05.460 they start working for

00:39:07.020 environmental preservation

00:39:08.720 at a local level.

00:39:10.360 And that's a far more

00:39:11.340 effective way of taking

00:39:12.300 care of the planet.

00:39:13.200 So not only do you

00:39:14.160 impoverish people, you

00:39:16.460 impoverish people and make

00:39:18.060 the planet worse.

00:39:19.680 And as far as I can tell,

00:39:20.900 that's just essentially

00:39:21.820 unforgivable.

00:39:22.980 So why do you think, so

00:39:24.760 two things, we left

00:39:26.340 something hanging.

00:39:28.200 You said two editors got

00:39:29.780 fired, one in 1992.

00:39:32.040 When was the second one who

00:39:33.240 got fired for publishing

00:39:34.320 something you wrote?

00:39:35.460 After 2001.

00:39:36.320 It was immediate.

00:39:39.220 2001.

00:39:40.120 Okay.

00:39:40.480 And so, now, when you

00:39:43.460 started to object to the

00:39:45.640 narrative, what narrative

00:39:48.080 were you objecting to, and

00:39:49.240 what grounds, this is back,

00:39:50.700 say, in 92, what narrative

00:39:52.040 were you objecting to, and

00:39:52.980 on what grounds were you

00:39:53.980 objecting to?

00:39:54.640 You're touching on

00:39:55.660 something that took me a

00:39:57.780 while to understand.

00:40:02.120 You know, Goebbels famously

00:40:05.280 said, you know, if you tell

00:40:07.700 a big enough lie and repeat

00:40:09.340 it often enough, it'll

00:40:10.520 become the truth.

00:40:12.340 There's been a lot of that

00:40:13.900 in this, but there are

00:40:15.640 aspects of establishing the

00:40:17.920 narrative, i.e., what makes

00:40:20.500 something the truth, that I

00:40:22.580 hadn't appreciated.

00:40:24.560 So, the narrative was, the

00:40:27.620 climate is determined by a

00:40:29.700 greenhouse effect, and adding

00:40:32.440 CO2 to it increases it, causes

00:40:36.740 warming, and moreover, the

00:40:40.260 natural greenhouse substances

00:40:42.540 besides CO2, water, vapor,

00:40:45.380 clouds, upper-level clouds, will

00:40:48.400 amplify whatever man does.

00:40:52.160 Now, that immediately goes

00:40:54.240 against Le Chatelier's

00:40:55.860 principle, which says if you

00:40:57.960 perturb a system, and it is

00:41:00.280 capable internally of

00:41:02.700 counteracting it, it will.

00:41:05.840 And our system is.

00:41:06.920 And you think that applies?

00:41:08.520 Okay, and so that's a very

00:41:10.720 germane issue, because

00:41:11.920 Well, but let me

00:41:13.740 Even if, please go ahead.

00:41:16.300 Let me finish, because

00:41:17.440 okay, so that was a little

00:41:19.660 bit odd.

00:41:20.460 You began wondering, where

00:41:21.440 did these feedbacks come

00:41:22.900 from?

00:41:25.140 And immediately, people,

00:41:28.240 including myself, started

00:41:30.660 looking into the feedbacks

00:41:33.000 and seeing whether there were

00:41:36.180 any negative ones, or how did

00:41:38.180 it work, but underlying it, and

00:41:41.200 this is what I learned, if you

00:41:43.080 want to get a narrative

00:41:44.460 established, the crucial

00:41:47.420 thing is to pepper it with

00:41:49.280 errors, questionable things,

00:41:54.280 so that the critics will seize

00:41:56.300 on that and not question the

00:41:58.860 basic narrative.

00:42:00.200 The basic narrative, in this

00:42:02.080 sense, was that climate is

00:42:04.220 controlled by the greenhouse

00:42:06.100 effect.

00:42:07.700 In point of fact, the Earth's

00:42:09.880 climate system, which has

00:42:12.540 many regions, but two distinct

00:42:15.620 different regions are the

00:42:17.240 tropics, roughly the minus 30

00:42:20.660 to 30 degrees latitude, and the

00:42:23.560 extra tropics, outside of 30

00:42:25.760 degrees, plus or minus.

00:42:27.960 They have very different

00:42:29.580 dynamics.

00:42:30.300 In the tropics, the crucial

00:42:35.420 thing for the Earth, by the

00:42:37.180 way, and this is a

00:42:38.160 technicality and much harder

00:42:40.280 to convey than saying that

00:42:42.500 greenhouse gases are a blanket

00:42:44.200 or that 97% of scientists

00:42:46.740 agree, this is actually a

00:42:49.280 technical issue.

00:42:50.140 The Earth rotates.

00:42:52.140 Now, people are aware of that.

00:42:53.720 We have day and night.

00:42:54.720 But there is something called

00:42:57.880 the Coriolis effect.

00:43:00.700 When you're on a rotating

00:43:02.240 system, it gives rise to the

00:43:04.840 appearance of forces that

00:43:06.980 change the winds relative to the

00:43:08.940 rotation.

00:43:11.240 And the only component of the

00:43:14.600 rotation is the component that

00:43:17.140 is perpendicular to the

00:43:19.680 surface.

00:43:20.200 So, at the pole, the rotation

00:43:22.300 vector is perpendicular to the

00:43:26.300 surface.

00:43:27.380 At the equator, it's parallel to

00:43:30.580 the surface.

00:43:31.360 It's zero.

00:43:33.140 And this gives you phenomenally

00:43:35.380 different dynamics.

00:43:37.360 So, where you don't have a

00:43:39.080 vertical component to the

00:43:40.580 rotation vector, motions do what

00:43:43.200 they do in the laboratory in

00:43:45.540 small scales.

00:43:46.620 If you have a temperature

00:43:47.840 difference, it acts to wipe it

00:43:50.040 out.

00:43:51.560 And so, if you look at the

00:43:52.600 tropics, the temperatures at

00:43:55.300 any surface are relatively

00:43:57.000 flat.

00:43:57.700 They don't vary much with

00:43:59.040 latitude.

00:44:00.840 On the other hand, you go to

00:44:02.520 the mid-latitudes, extra

00:44:04.140 tropics, there the temperature

00:44:06.280 varies a lot between the

00:44:07.840 tropics and the pole.

00:44:09.440 We know that.

00:44:10.340 I mean, temperatures are cold

00:44:12.460 at high latitudes.

00:44:14.680 And if you look at changes in

00:44:16.900 climate in the Earth's history,

00:44:18.480 what they consist in is a

00:44:21.260 tropics that stays relatively

00:44:23.820 constant.

00:44:25.820 And what changes is the

00:44:27.780 temperature difference between

00:44:29.180 the tropics and the pole.

00:44:31.420 During the ice age, it was about

00:44:33.160 40 degrees centigrade.

00:44:35.080 Today, it's about 60.

00:44:38.580 Today, it's about 40.

00:44:40.720 During 50 million years ago,

00:44:42.560 something called the Eocene, it's

00:44:43.740 about 20.

00:44:45.620 And so, that's all a function of

00:44:48.320 what's going on outside the

00:44:50.060 tropics.

00:44:51.660 Within the tropics, the

00:44:53.440 greenhouse effect is

00:44:54.760 significant.

00:44:57.260 But, what determines the

00:45:00.180 temperature change between the

00:45:01.640 tropics and the pole has very

00:45:04.160 little to do with the

00:45:05.200 greenhouse effect.

00:45:06.720 It is a dynamic phenomenon

00:45:08.680 based on the fact that if you

00:45:11.080 have a temperature difference

00:45:12.860 with latitude, it generates

00:45:16.580 instabilities.

00:45:18.820 These instabilities take the

00:45:20.800 form of the cyclonic and

00:45:23.800 anticyclonic patterns that you

00:45:26.560 see on the weather map.

00:45:28.780 Now, the tropics are very

00:45:30.540 different.

00:45:31.100 I mean, you know, even a casual

00:45:32.520 look at a weather map, the

00:45:34.880 systems that bring us weather

00:45:37.060 travel from west to east at

00:45:40.520 latitudes outside the

00:45:41.860 tropics.

00:45:43.900 Within the tropics, they

00:45:46.360 travel from east to west.

00:45:49.340 The prevailing winds are

00:45:50.840 opposite in the two sections.

00:45:54.240 And we're saying that what

00:45:57.780 changes due to the greenhouse

00:45:59.400 effect, however you look at it,

00:46:02.020 is amplified at the poles.

00:46:04.720 That is not true.

00:46:06.240 There's no physical basis for

00:46:08.080 that statement.

00:46:08.680 All they do is determine the

00:46:11.540 starting point for where the

00:46:13.720 temperature changes in mid-

00:46:15.320 latitudes, and that's

00:46:16.480 determined mainly by

00:46:18.280 hydrodynamics.

00:46:20.440 Okay, that's complicated to

00:46:22.760 explain to someone.

00:46:25.020 And yet, it's the basis for

00:46:28.280 claiming that these seemingly

00:46:30.340 large, small numbers, you

00:46:32.000 know, they're saying if global

00:46:33.280 mean temperature goes up one

00:46:34.680 and a half degrees, it's the

00:46:36.140 end.

00:46:36.560 That's based on it getting

00:46:39.340 much bigger at high latitudes

00:46:41.740 and determining that.

00:46:43.900 But all one and a half

00:46:45.480 degrees at the equator would

00:46:47.560 do, or in the greenhouse part

00:46:49.820 of the earth, is change the

00:46:52.160 temperature everywhere by one

00:46:53.480 and a half degrees, which for

00:46:55.940 most of us is less than the

00:46:57.620 temperature change between

00:46:58.800 breakfast and lunch.

00:47:00.920 And the thought that this is the

00:47:02.500 end of the world is a little bit

00:47:05.740 crazy.

00:47:06.740 All right, so let's play devil's

00:47:07.360 advocate here for a minute.

00:47:09.260 And so, let me lay out the

00:47:10.980 narrative and correct me if I've

00:47:13.120 got it wrong.

00:47:14.480 So, first of all, the world at

00:47:18.760 the moment is making a big deal

00:47:20.100 out of climate and associating

00:47:22.180 climate change with the

00:47:23.300 greenhouse effect, the trapping of

00:47:25.540 heat.

00:47:26.080 And they're associating, we're all

00:47:27.580 associating the greenhouse effect

00:47:29.020 with an increase in carbon

00:47:30.300 dioxide.

00:47:30.780 And at least initially, we were

00:47:33.000 associating that increase in

00:47:34.640 climate, in carbon dioxide with

00:47:36.520 global warming.

00:47:38.280 And then we've added the

00:47:40.180 proposition that, well, not only

00:47:42.220 will there be warming, say, of up

00:47:43.940 to a degree and a half or two

00:47:45.320 degrees by the end of the

00:47:46.520 century, and maybe there's some

00:47:49.220 variation in those predictions,

00:47:50.560 but we're also looking at a

00:47:53.100 system that's characterized by a

00:47:55.640 variety of positive feedback loops.

00:47:57.520 And those, the danger here is

00:47:59.820 that a one and a half degree

00:48:01.460 increase might not be

00:48:02.620 catastrophic, but that that

00:48:03.860 might trigger a sequence of

00:48:05.680 cataclysmic events.

00:48:07.080 We hear sometimes about the

00:48:08.420 melting of the Greenland ice

00:48:09.760 cap, for example, the rapid rise

00:48:12.380 in sea level that would occur as

00:48:14.000 a consequence, the increase of

00:48:16.040 temperatures at the poles, the

00:48:17.600 release of methane as a

00:48:18.900 consequence, let's say, of the

00:48:20.720 permafrost thawing, and then a

00:48:24.260 runaway greenhouse effect because

00:48:25.820 of that, and you evinced some

00:48:28.460 skepticism, well, about the

00:48:30.020 whole narrative, but also, more

00:48:31.520 particularly, and perhaps more

00:48:32.960 importantly, you don't sound like

00:48:34.880 you're a big fan of the idea of

00:48:36.660 runaway positive feedback loops.

00:48:38.900 Oh, well, there are a lot of

00:48:40.660 things enmeshed in what you've

00:48:42.520 said.

00:48:43.640 Even the one and a half degree

00:48:45.160 depends on the positive

00:48:46.860 feedbacks.

00:48:49.260 Otherwise, CO2 would be even less

00:48:51.800 significant, much less

00:48:53.040 significant.

00:48:53.600 So, those, you know, you assume

00:48:57.480 that water vapor increases and

00:49:01.100 amplifies it, but the whole picture

00:49:03.500 is one-dimensional, so, you know,

00:49:05.380 you'd have to know the area where

00:49:07.560 water vapor is important.

00:49:09.320 It goes through a mess of things,

00:49:11.660 and we know now that that probably

00:49:14.380 isn't occurring, even people who

00:49:16.440 support the narrative.

00:49:19.420 So, you keep...

00:49:19.600 That water vapor isn't amplifying

00:49:22.120 carbon dioxide effects.

00:49:24.420 If it is, it has to be considered

00:49:27.020 as part of an infrared feedback,

00:49:29.380 and nobody has detected that that

00:49:31.620 is actually positive.

00:49:34.480 Okay.

00:49:35.160 Okay.

00:49:35.540 Well, I heard that, I read,

00:49:38.060 that the putative contribution of

00:49:42.360 carbon dioxide to global warming

00:49:46.340 is less than the margin of error

00:49:49.460 for measurement of the effect of

00:49:51.140 water vapor.

00:49:52.320 Yeah.

00:49:52.740 Do you know if that's...

00:49:54.460 That's true.

00:49:55.280 That's really sad if that's true.

00:49:56.760 That's true.

00:49:57.520 That's really sad if that's true.

00:49:59.240 It is true if you want to measure it

00:50:02.680 rather than hypothesize it.

00:50:05.260 than what you're saying is true.

00:50:08.680 It's been hypothesized.

00:50:12.040 In other words...

00:50:12.840 So, we're planning on spending

00:50:14.620 $2 trillion to remediate a problem

00:50:17.080 whose magnitude is so small

00:50:19.480 that it could easily be hidden

00:50:21.240 within another measurement error

00:50:22.780 on the water vapor front.

00:50:24.360 I think so.

00:50:26.460 But, I mean...

00:50:27.160 Oh, boy.

00:50:27.420 That's really quite something.

00:50:28.540 No, I mean...

00:50:31.260 It's caught the fancy

00:50:33.200 of the political world.

00:50:36.000 I mean, I'll give you an example of it.

00:50:38.760 You know, we're falling into the trap

00:50:40.940 I mentioned, you know,

00:50:42.560 going along with the narrative

00:50:44.020 because it has so many weaknesses

00:50:45.960 ignores the fact that

00:50:48.600 the whole picture of the greenhouse

00:50:50.240 is misconceived.

00:50:53.260 Okay, well, let's not go too far

00:50:54.940 down that rabbit hole

00:50:55.960 because I'd like to stay focused

00:50:57.500 on the critique of the major narrative.

00:51:00.420 Yeah, no, I mean, you know,

00:51:02.340 I'm quite willing to talk

00:51:03.860 about the other problems.

00:51:06.200 Yeah.

00:51:06.660 But the fact that

00:51:08.100 you don't have this polar amplification,

00:51:11.100 you know, that it's going to be

00:51:12.740 bigger at high latitudes,

00:51:15.100 it may be,

00:51:16.960 but it's not due to the greenhouse.

00:51:21.100 It's due to processes

00:51:22.700 in the extratropics

00:51:24.340 where the greenhouse

00:51:25.120 greenhouse is secondary

00:51:26.740 by a long shot.

00:51:30.020 There's one example

00:51:31.300 of what you're saying,

00:51:32.540 and it helps, I think,

00:51:34.000 understand

00:51:34.640 why this issue

00:51:36.340 gets so distorted.

00:51:39.640 In one of the

00:51:41.220 International Panel

00:51:42.460 on Climate Change,

00:51:43.680 you know,

00:51:43.860 this UN body

00:51:44.900 reports,

00:51:47.320 I think the third report,

00:51:49.160 somewhere in the early 2000s,

00:51:51.000 where I was a lead author,

00:51:54.460 but that we can get

00:51:55.860 to that later.

00:51:57.440 In any case,

00:51:59.020 they have

00:51:59.740 this thousand pages

00:52:02.120 that deals with the science,

00:52:04.180 has no index,

00:52:05.880 is totally unreadable,

00:52:07.840 and then they have

00:52:09.620 a summary for policymakers,

00:52:11.840 which isn't really

00:52:13.660 due to the scientists,

00:52:15.020 and they can manipulate

00:52:17.080 the text

00:52:17.820 because that comes out

00:52:19.100 six months before

00:52:20.060 the text,

00:52:21.060 of which it's a summary.

00:52:23.360 But, you know,

00:52:24.080 they know people

00:52:24.700 aren't even going

00:52:25.520 to read that.

00:52:26.640 So you have

00:52:27.680 the thousand pages

00:52:28.700 they're not going to read,

00:52:29.740 then you have

00:52:30.120 twenty pages

00:52:30.940 they're not going to read,

00:52:32.640 and so you have

00:52:33.200 the press release.

00:52:35.160 And the press release

00:52:36.100 is the iconic statement,

00:52:37.760 and that's what

00:52:38.440 gets the headlines.

00:52:40.420 So the iconic statement

00:52:41.940 was they now are,

00:52:44.540 I forget how certain,

00:52:47.360 that most of the warming

00:52:50.040 since 1960

00:52:52.060 is due to man.

00:52:56.360 Okay.

00:52:58.600 In truth,

00:53:00.260 that doesn't mean much.

00:53:02.040 It was about a half degree.

00:53:04.400 It was most consistent

00:53:05.820 with the climate

00:53:06.720 being relatively insensitive.

00:53:09.780 It was basically a statement,

00:53:11.300 there's not much

00:53:12.000 of a problem here.

00:53:13.820 But they didn't say that.

00:53:14.920 They just said

00:53:15.520 most of the warming

00:53:16.660 since 1960

00:53:17.900 is due to man.

00:53:19.760 All of a sudden...

00:53:20.400 What does most mean?

00:53:21.620 Does most mean 95%

00:53:23.460 or 51%?

00:53:25.040 Could mean 51%.

00:53:26.940 Yeah, okay.

00:53:28.860 Even if it meant 100%,

00:53:30.440 it wouldn't matter.

00:53:31.820 It was small.

00:53:34.020 Yeah, got it.

00:53:35.480 But how did

00:53:36.540 Senators McCain

00:53:37.960 and Lieberman

00:53:39.000 respond to that?

00:53:40.220 They come out

00:53:41.840 immediately with a statement,

00:53:43.740 this is the smoking gun,

00:53:45.580 we must do something.

00:53:48.580 So as long as

00:53:50.640 the scientists

00:53:51.900 can make innocent remarks

00:53:55.480 and be assured

00:53:57.980 that politicians

00:53:59.180 will convert them

00:54:01.200 into alarm

00:54:02.060 and increase funding,

00:54:05.500 why are they going to complain?

00:54:07.140 And so you have

00:54:08.500 this insidious

00:54:09.560 interaction

00:54:11.540 where scientists

00:54:15.000 and, you know,

00:54:16.460 there's another guy,

00:54:17.680 Steve Koonin,

00:54:19.140 who's written this book,

00:54:21.100 and I know Steve well,

00:54:22.820 and, you know,

00:54:24.760 the point is

00:54:25.440 he could use

00:54:26.480 the documents

00:54:28.120 that are cited

00:54:29.960 on behalf of alarm

00:54:32.020 to say,

00:54:34.040 look,

00:54:34.600 nobody here

00:54:35.620 is saying

00:54:36.380 it's the problem

00:54:37.540 that the

00:54:38.580 environmentalists

00:54:40.160 and the politicians

00:54:41.020 are saying.

00:54:42.180 Where did this come from?

00:54:44.420 And the answer is

00:54:45.500 it came...

00:54:45.900 Well,

00:54:46.120 Bjorn Lomberg

00:54:46.820 has done the same thing.

00:54:47.760 Right.

00:54:48.060 I mean,

00:54:48.260 he accepts the IPCC

00:54:49.760 predictions,

00:54:51.060 essentially,

00:54:51.600 with some criticism,

00:54:52.640 but says,

00:54:53.080 look,

00:54:53.320 well,

00:54:53.500 if they're right,

00:54:54.820 this is straight

00:54:55.380 from the horse's mouth,

00:54:56.600 let's say,

00:54:57.020 with regard to the UN,

00:54:58.500 even if they're correct,

00:55:00.420 that'll mean two things.

00:55:01.580 The first is

00:55:02.140 we'll be slightly less rich

00:55:03.960 than we would have been

00:55:05.000 100 years from now

00:55:06.120 because economic growth

00:55:07.340 is so high,

00:55:08.120 and we won't even notice that

00:55:09.360 in some real sense,

00:55:10.600 but even if it's slightly bigger

00:55:12.480 than we predict,

00:55:13.860 we're so good at adapting,

00:55:15.520 and you can see,

00:55:16.460 like the curves,

00:55:17.240 for example,

00:55:18.000 in terms of number of people

00:55:19.380 who are dying

00:55:19.880 from natural disasters

00:55:20.960 each year,

00:55:21.700 which has declined precipitously

00:55:23.240 over 100 years,

00:55:24.380 we're so good at adapting

00:55:25.680 that the probability

00:55:26.640 that we can just adapt

00:55:27.780 to this is 100%.

00:55:29.520 Now,

00:55:29.960 that,

00:55:30.180 of course,

00:55:30.600 that assumes

00:55:31.600 that there are none

00:55:32.300 of these runaway

00:55:33.220 positive feedback loop effects,

00:55:35.200 but my problem

00:55:36.220 with that

00:55:36.700 on the scientific front

00:55:37.840 was,

00:55:38.500 well,

00:55:38.640 how the hell

00:55:39.120 do you predict

00:55:39.860 a runaway

00:55:41.020 positive feedback loop?

00:55:42.800 You can't predict that

00:55:43.840 as far as I can tell.

00:55:44.960 By the way,

00:55:45.420 the feedbacks

00:55:46.400 are not runaways

00:55:47.400 that they're using.

00:55:50.060 They just amplify.

00:55:52.180 You'd have to get

00:55:53.160 a much higher level

00:55:54.660 of feedback

00:55:55.220 to be a runaway system.

00:55:57.780 The tipping point

00:55:59.620 is a different argument.

00:56:02.140 And I find that

00:56:03.480 kind of nutty

00:56:04.540 because tipping points

00:56:07.180 in the climate system

00:56:09.920 are virtually unheard of

00:56:11.460 and there's a good reason

00:56:13.400 for it.

00:56:14.960 They're usually

00:56:16.060 characteristic of systems

00:56:17.960 that have what I would call

00:56:19.560 few degrees of freedom.

00:56:22.520 So it's saying

00:56:26.580 if you want to make

00:56:27.560 a transition

00:56:28.260 from one state

00:56:29.280 to another,

00:56:29.980 you don't have many

00:56:30.880 places to go,

00:56:33.120 so it has to take a leap.

00:56:35.640 Oh, right.

00:56:36.300 Oh, I see what you mean.

00:56:37.420 So a system

00:56:38.280 that's constrained

00:56:39.120 in its modes

00:56:40.760 of possibility

00:56:41.680 Yeah.

00:56:42.080 because there's only

00:56:42.960 a couple of states

00:56:43.700 but a complex system

00:56:45.440 can be multiple.

00:56:45.980 But a system like ours

00:56:47.100 Oh, that's very good.

00:56:48.640 has an infinite number

00:56:49.860 of degrees of freedom

00:56:51.000 essentially

00:56:51.600 and it can go smoothly

00:56:53.140 through anything.

00:56:55.680 Okay.

00:56:56.320 Has that been,

00:56:57.200 has that proposition

00:56:58.400 been quantified?

00:56:59.540 Like, do people,

00:57:00.060 I've never heard that before.

00:57:01.760 It makes a lot of sense

00:57:03.000 to me that,

00:57:03.980 you know,

00:57:04.360 a system that flips

00:57:05.600 would flip

00:57:06.140 because it could be

00:57:06.940 frozen or liquid

00:57:08.120 in the case of water.

00:57:09.620 but a system

00:57:11.660 that's complex

00:57:12.520 and highly entropic

00:57:14.080 because of that

00:57:14.800 has many, many ways

00:57:15.960 of dispensing,

00:57:16.940 let's say,

00:57:17.440 extra energy.

00:57:17.980 Yeah, so-called

00:57:18.660 degrees of freedom.

00:57:19.040 It looks like

00:57:19.420 a formal argument.

00:57:20.820 Yeah, I haven't seen it

00:57:22.280 explicitly expressed

00:57:24.260 but I'm pretty sure

00:57:25.600 there's something

00:57:26.880 in the literature

00:57:27.700 about that.

00:57:29.980 Well, it makes sense

00:57:32.200 if a system

00:57:32.940 has multiple ways

00:57:34.060 of dispersing

00:57:36.060 with increased energy input

00:57:38.080 Yeah.

00:57:38.500 then it's not going to,

00:57:40.680 yeah,

00:57:41.240 the probability

00:57:42.040 that it's going to do

00:57:42.720 something dramatic

00:57:43.520 has got to be proportionate

00:57:44.820 in some sense

00:57:45.580 to the number of options

00:57:46.560 that it has.

00:57:47.360 I mean, look,

00:57:48.740 you know,

00:57:49.260 the number,

00:57:50.220 as I was saying,

00:57:51.780 if you want to pepper

00:57:53.600 something with craziness,

00:57:56.700 this issue

00:57:57.480 has a lot to speak of

00:58:01.680 on that count.

00:58:03.520 I mean,

00:58:03.760 one of the ones

00:58:04.320 that I like

00:58:05.060 is this metric

00:58:06.840 for climate

00:58:07.640 which is a very

00:58:10.420 peculiar metric,

00:58:11.820 you know,

00:58:12.100 some global temperature.

00:58:14.960 Yeah.

00:58:15.540 What is it?

00:58:16.460 Global mean?

00:58:17.500 What is it?

00:58:19.120 How do you get it?

00:58:20.180 Where is it?

00:58:22.360 I mean,

00:58:22.680 how do you take

00:58:23.220 the temperature of the Earth?

00:58:24.180 Well, let's walk into that.

00:58:25.320 Well, some of that,

00:58:26.760 okay,

00:58:27.140 so some of that

00:58:27.900 is a consequence

00:58:28.740 of many,

00:58:30.160 many weather stations

00:58:31.480 distributed

00:58:32.120 on the physical surface

00:58:33.860 of the Earth.

00:58:34.620 but the problem

00:58:35.360 with those

00:58:35.900 is that

00:58:36.400 many of them

00:58:37.460 were built

00:58:38.100 in places

00:58:39.140 where urban

00:58:40.040 encroachment

00:58:41.780 has expanded

00:58:42.660 over 100 years

00:58:43.660 and so that's

00:58:44.460 a huge problem

00:58:45.220 on the measurement front.

00:58:46.220 Yeah,

00:58:46.340 but that's sophisticated.

00:58:48.700 How do you average

00:58:49.640 Mount Everest

00:58:50.280 with the Dead Sea?

00:58:53.540 Well,

00:58:54.140 I'm curious about that.

00:58:55.440 How is that done?

00:58:56.700 Like,

00:58:56.860 to think of the Earth

00:58:57.820 as having one temperature.

00:58:59.620 Yeah.

00:58:59.960 So you're making

00:59:00.800 the case there

00:59:01.440 that the mean

00:59:02.220 is the crucial variable,

00:59:03.700 right?

00:59:03.940 That's really

00:59:04.420 what it boils down to.

00:59:05.220 Well,

00:59:05.260 it's saying that,

00:59:07.740 but it's hard

00:59:09.900 to tell

00:59:10.440 how you get it.

00:59:11.820 They don't get it,

00:59:12.880 by the way,

00:59:13.360 by averaging.

00:59:15.440 What they do...

00:59:16.720 Okay,

00:59:17.060 well,

00:59:17.400 how else can you get it?

00:59:18.680 Okay.

00:59:19.460 What they do

00:59:20.360 is take each station,

00:59:23.800 take a 30-year average,

00:59:25.920 I forget,

00:59:26.520 it's, you know,

00:59:27.140 like 1950 to 1980

00:59:29.040 or something,

00:59:29.780 and look at the deviation

00:59:32.220 of the temperature

00:59:33.420 from that average.

00:59:36.500 And they average

00:59:37.660 the anomalies,

00:59:39.080 the deviation.

00:59:42.980 Okay?

00:59:44.760 So, you know,

00:59:46.680 let's say it went up

00:59:47.840 three degrees

00:59:48.520 at one station

00:59:49.860 from the 30-year mean,

00:59:51.900 went up two

00:59:52.900 and one

00:59:53.940 and so on.

00:59:54.500 They average

00:59:55.180 those numbers

00:59:56.080 instead of

00:59:57.100 the temperature itself.

00:59:58.440 Okay, why?

01:00:01.040 And who's they?

01:00:02.860 The British Met Office,

01:00:05.580 NOAA,

01:00:06.800 NASA,

01:00:07.780 so on.

01:00:09.020 Everyone producing

01:00:10.200 a temperature record

01:00:11.500 is doing that.

01:00:13.920 Okay.

01:00:15.800 Maybe it makes sense,

01:00:17.360 you know,

01:00:17.640 because you don't want

01:00:18.260 to average

01:00:18.960 Mount Everest

01:00:19.740 and the Dead Sea,

01:00:21.000 but maybe the changes

01:00:22.200 in temperature

01:00:23.040 at those places,

01:00:24.440 you could average

01:00:25.340 and get an average

01:00:26.560 temperature change.

01:00:29.400 Okay.

01:00:30.480 So you do that.

01:00:32.120 And they show you

01:00:33.080 the graph,

01:00:34.060 but they never show you

01:00:35.220 the data points.

01:00:38.060 And if you show

01:00:39.200 the data points,

01:00:40.140 and this is a guy

01:00:41.260 at Lawrence Livermore

01:00:42.340 Laboratory

01:00:42.860 who did this

01:00:43.900 around 1990,

01:00:45.620 he died in 92.

01:00:47.420 He showed the data points.

01:00:49.100 And whereas this

01:00:50.640 global mean

01:00:51.640 temperature record

01:00:52.800 is changing

01:00:54.300 a degree,

01:00:55.660 a degree and a half

01:00:56.820 over a century,

01:00:57.880 a century and a half,

01:00:59.460 the data points

01:01:00.740 are scattered

01:01:01.220 over 20 degrees.

01:01:03.700 Right, right.

01:01:04.500 And they're

01:01:04.920 densely scattered.

01:01:05.980 Huge error.

01:01:06.980 Not error.

01:01:07.700 It's just huge range.

01:01:09.920 Just scattered.

01:01:11.140 And if you

01:01:12.220 chose

01:01:13.140 any given

01:01:14.020 period of time,

01:01:15.760 any moment,

01:01:16.480 there are almost

01:01:18.780 as many stations

01:01:20.060 cooling as warming,

01:01:21.500 even though the trend

01:01:22.460 is slightly warming,

01:01:23.740 because it's slight.

01:01:26.640 And so

01:01:27.540 when you see

01:01:28.380 somebody at a given

01:01:29.400 location saying,

01:01:30.840 this is a cold day,

01:01:31.940 how come

01:01:32.380 they say

01:01:33.680 it's warming?

01:01:34.920 Well,

01:01:35.500 the data says

01:01:36.560 it could almost

01:01:37.560 be as likely

01:01:38.340 to cool as warm,

01:01:40.160 except there's

01:01:40.880 a slight bias.

01:01:42.080 and

01:01:44.720 it's,

01:01:47.320 you know,

01:01:47.780 when you look

01:01:49.500 at the media,

01:01:51.360 if there's an extreme

01:01:53.400 at any given place,

01:01:54.860 they say

01:01:55.240 it's climate.

01:01:56.780 Right, right.

01:01:57.380 The data,

01:01:57.920 you know,

01:01:58.420 doesn't suggest that.

01:02:01.140 Okay,

01:02:01.620 so part of the problem

01:02:02.900 here is that

01:02:03.600 we have a single measure,

01:02:05.440 which is this

01:02:06.120 average change

01:02:07.100 in temperature.

01:02:07.820 Now that's become

01:02:08.880 the standard

01:02:10.600 for assessing

01:02:11.380 something like

01:02:12.140 global planetary health.

01:02:14.580 Oh, yeah.

01:02:15.060 And now our entire

01:02:15.920 industrial enterprise

01:02:17.040 is being bent

01:02:18.540 to serve

01:02:19.260 that particular master.

01:02:20.600 So what do you think

01:02:21.600 is wrong with

01:02:22.320 the average

01:02:23.560 mean temperature

01:02:24.400 as a univariate variable?

01:02:26.120 I mean,

01:02:26.300 you talked about scatter,

01:02:27.600 so that's a problem,

01:02:28.520 but apart from scatter...

01:02:30.400 The other

01:02:30.760 problem with it

01:02:32.340 is,

01:02:33.860 and it explains

01:02:35.060 why,

01:02:35.460 for instance,

01:02:36.140 textbooks

01:02:36.820 on climate

01:02:38.560 from the 40s

01:02:39.880 through the 60s

01:02:41.120 didn't discuss

01:02:42.800 this metric.

01:02:44.240 They discussed

01:02:45.360 the fact

01:02:46.780 that the Earth

01:02:48.120 had many

01:02:50.160 climate regimes,

01:02:52.160 dozens,

01:02:52.900 and they wanted

01:02:55.160 to know

01:02:55.640 what accounted

01:02:56.400 for the different

01:02:57.160 regimes of climate

01:02:58.260 on the Earth,

01:02:59.820 something called

01:03:00.760 Kerpen classification.

01:03:02.700 This metric

01:03:06.860 became popular

01:03:08.180 with global cooling,

01:03:10.680 global warming,

01:03:11.620 and so on,

01:03:12.120 because you wanted

01:03:12.600 to have something

01:03:13.740 singular

01:03:15.100 that showed

01:03:16.100 one or the other.

01:03:17.900 I think they were

01:03:18.820 capitalized

01:03:19.520 also on the fact

01:03:21.500 that as

01:03:23.480 a British

01:03:25.180 physicist

01:03:25.840 and novelist,

01:03:26.980 C.P. Snow,

01:03:28.980 realized

01:03:29.740 many years ago

01:03:30.860 that we have

01:03:32.080 two cultures.

01:03:33.160 Well,

01:03:33.380 I think we have

01:03:33.940 more than that.

01:03:35.100 Maybe we have

01:03:35.720 no cultures,

01:03:37.260 but if you're

01:03:38.400 not a scientist,

01:03:40.280 it is amazing

01:03:42.040 how innumerate

01:03:44.600 and illiterate

01:03:45.820 you can be.

01:03:48.000 Right.

01:03:48.600 So...

01:03:49.600 Or even if you

01:03:50.320 are a scientist.

01:03:51.160 Yeah,

01:03:51.860 but there's

01:03:52.960 a different

01:03:53.380 kind of ignorance,

01:03:55.240 specialization,

01:03:56.520 and so on.

01:03:57.100 But most people

01:03:59.380 looking at a graph

01:04:00.380 can't read a graph.

01:04:02.760 Right.

01:04:03.220 And so,

01:04:03.960 you know,

01:04:04.380 if you look

01:04:04.920 at the financial page,

01:04:07.580 people,

01:04:08.540 you know,

01:04:08.980 see the same graph

01:04:10.360 if it went up

01:04:11.280 10 points

01:04:11.900 and went up

01:04:12.400 100 points

01:04:13.140 and went up

01:04:13.580 200 points,

01:04:14.860 all they see

01:04:15.500 is it went up.

01:04:17.120 And they rescale

01:04:18.400 and they show you that

01:04:19.400 because if they

01:04:20.420 only show you

01:04:21.360 something that is

01:04:22.940 objective,

01:04:24.260 some days

01:04:25.060 it wouldn't look

01:04:25.600 like it's doing

01:04:26.280 anything.

01:04:28.100 Mm-hmm.

01:04:29.160 And so...

01:04:29.700 So what would you

01:04:30.880 regard as the

01:04:32.980 major drivers

01:04:34.040 of...

01:04:35.080 Okay,

01:04:35.840 let's go back

01:04:36.720 even a step further.

01:04:38.040 Do you think

01:04:38.900 that we have

01:04:39.700 any existential,

01:04:41.100 real existential

01:04:41.760 concerns

01:04:42.440 on the climate

01:04:43.260 front?

01:04:44.940 Not for the

01:04:45.940 next 5,000 years.

01:04:49.440 Okay,

01:04:50.120 okay.

01:04:50.580 So we probably

01:04:52.420 don't have to

01:04:52.980 worry about that

01:04:53.660 for at least

01:04:54.200 4,000 years.

01:04:55.040 I think so.

01:04:56.160 And we would

01:04:57.220 see it.

01:04:57.860 I mean,

01:04:58.240 it's...

01:04:59.260 You know,

01:04:59.660 we had these

01:05:00.420 massive ice

01:05:01.200 ages

01:05:01.800 and every

01:05:04.160 roughly

01:05:04.780 100,000 years

01:05:05.980 and the

01:05:06.900 glacial part

01:05:08.000 of it

01:05:08.340 is longer

01:05:09.460 than the

01:05:10.880 interglacial

01:05:11.640 that we're

01:05:12.240 in now.

01:05:14.180 So,

01:05:15.480 yeah,

01:05:15.980 I mean,

01:05:16.300 but we're

01:05:16.660 talking about

01:05:17.200 scales

01:05:17.700 of thousands

01:05:18.640 of years

01:05:19.520 for that.

01:05:20.940 That's a

01:05:21.640 major change

01:05:22.780 and

01:05:24.080 it was

01:05:26.440 understood

01:05:26.980 by a

01:05:28.120 Serbian

01:05:28.640 astronomer

01:05:29.920 in the

01:05:31.340 1930s,

01:05:32.500 early 40s

01:05:33.520 that this

01:05:34.940 was largely

01:05:35.740 due

01:05:36.400 to the

01:05:37.920 orbital

01:05:38.480 variations

01:05:39.300 of the

01:05:39.880 Earth

01:05:40.200 which

01:05:41.160 produced

01:05:41.800 changes

01:05:42.580 in

01:05:43.660 solar

01:05:44.320 radiation

01:05:45.020 incident

01:05:45.700 on the

01:05:46.300 Earth

01:05:46.560 in

01:05:47.640 summer

01:05:48.160 in the

01:05:49.140 Arctic

01:05:49.440 of 100

01:05:51.180 watts

01:05:51.680 per meter

01:05:52.160 squared.

01:05:52.760 Remember,

01:05:53.520 with CO2

01:05:54.660 you're talking

01:05:55.220 about 2

01:05:55.740 watts per

01:05:56.320 meter

01:05:56.500 squared,

01:05:56.980 3

01:05:57.160 watts

01:05:57.480 per meter,

01:05:58.260 1.5

01:05:59.240 between the

01:05:59.960 ice ages,

01:06:01.180 100.

01:06:02.280 And why

01:06:03.060 summer

01:06:03.700 in the

01:06:04.560 Arctic?

01:06:05.880 Because

01:06:06.520 you always

01:06:07.760 have snow

01:06:08.320 in the

01:06:08.620 winter

01:06:08.900 in the

01:06:09.300 Arctic.

01:06:10.660 The

01:06:11.020 question

01:06:11.380 is how

01:06:11.800 much

01:06:12.040 of it

01:06:12.340 survives

01:06:12.820 the

01:06:13.100 summer?

01:06:14.740 If it's

01:06:15.680 cold

01:06:16.080 during the

01:06:16.620 summer,

01:06:17.380 the snow

01:06:17.780 lasts and

01:06:18.840 builds up

01:06:19.560 on a new

01:06:20.320 base each

01:06:21.140 year.

01:06:22.480 And over

01:06:23.160 thousands of

01:06:24.120 years,

01:06:25.140 becomes a

01:06:25.880 kilometer or

01:06:27.360 two of

01:06:27.800 ice over

01:06:28.440 you.

01:06:30.000 On the

01:06:30.660 other hand,

01:06:31.140 if the

01:06:31.420 summers are

01:06:31.960 warm,

01:06:32.780 the snow

01:06:33.140 doesn't

01:06:33.600 last and

01:06:34.240 you don't

01:06:34.560 build your

01:06:35.040 ice.

01:06:36.340 Okay,

01:06:36.760 so the

01:06:37.400 main drivers

01:06:38.220 of that

01:06:38.720 kind of

01:06:39.360 cataclysmic

01:06:41.300 change,

01:06:41.820 that's

01:06:42.100 orbital.

01:06:42.820 And those

01:06:43.420 are,

01:06:43.780 you said

01:06:44.120 100 watts

01:06:45.080 per square

01:06:45.780 meter.

01:06:46.420 Right.

01:06:46.900 Essentially.

01:06:47.960 And now

01:06:48.620 you're pointing

01:06:49.580 out that

01:06:50.080 the putative

01:06:51.240 effect of

01:06:52.060 carbon dioxide

01:06:53.140 warming is

01:06:53.880 something like

01:06:54.400 two watts

01:06:55.040 per meter.

01:06:55.760 That order.

01:06:56.320 And that's

01:06:56.740 going to

01:06:57.020 produce a

01:06:57.480 comparatively

01:06:58.680 small

01:06:59.160 perturbation.

01:07:00.280 Nothing of

01:07:01.120 the order of

01:07:01.740 magnitude that's

01:07:02.520 associated,

01:07:03.220 say, with

01:07:03.540 glaciation or

01:07:04.420 the lack

01:07:04.860 thereof.

01:07:05.520 Yeah.

01:07:06.160 I mean...

01:07:06.700 And also

01:07:07.320 not an amount

01:07:08.200 that'll produce

01:07:09.000 positive feedback

01:07:09.840 loops.

01:07:11.160 You know...

01:07:12.320 You know,

01:07:13.680 producing

01:07:14.140 positive feedback

01:07:15.340 loops, I

01:07:15.880 think, is

01:07:16.320 a kind of

01:07:17.240 funny phrasing.

01:07:19.520 The feedback

01:07:20.080 loops are

01:07:20.860 intrinsic to

01:07:21.960 the system.

01:07:23.920 And the

01:07:24.580 question is,

01:07:25.280 do we have

01:07:25.840 positive feedback

01:07:26.840 loops?

01:07:27.200 And I don't

01:07:27.580 think so.

01:07:29.380 Not really

01:07:30.280 serious ones.

01:07:32.060 And yet

01:07:32.280 they're assumed

01:07:33.060 in order to

01:07:33.780 get a big

01:07:34.280 bang out of

01:07:35.080 the CO2.

01:07:35.900 Yeah, okay.

01:07:38.800 So on what

01:07:40.100 basis are

01:07:40.820 they assumed?

01:07:41.680 Because you

01:07:42.340 already made

01:07:42.820 the case of

01:07:43.440 degrees of

01:07:44.060 freedom.

01:07:44.580 So, like,

01:07:44.960 what's going

01:07:45.380 on here

01:07:45.740 scientifically?

01:07:46.800 How can

01:07:47.460 that story

01:07:48.120 be put

01:07:48.560 forward with

01:07:49.140 any degree

01:07:49.600 of credibility?

01:07:51.220 By saying

01:07:52.120 it's credible.

01:07:54.520 I mean,

01:07:54.740 that's what

01:07:55.060 we're doing.

01:07:57.020 I mean,

01:07:57.340 you know,

01:07:57.680 in other

01:07:58.000 words,

01:07:58.940 Suki

01:07:59.220 Manabe

01:07:59.760 did some

01:08:01.360 papers in

01:08:01.860 the early

01:08:02.180 70s

01:08:03.020 where he

01:08:04.420 assumed

01:08:05.100 essentially

01:08:06.500 one-dimensionality

01:08:08.160 for the

01:08:08.660 system.

01:08:09.300 No clouds,

01:08:10.220 no nothing.

01:08:12.120 And he

01:08:13.440 said,

01:08:14.040 if I assume

01:08:15.260 relative humidity

01:08:16.520 remains fixed

01:08:18.120 and I have

01:08:20.400 no clouds

01:08:21.360 or I don't

01:08:22.380 let clouds

01:08:23.020 change,

01:08:24.900 then

01:08:25.460 because of

01:08:26.960 something called

01:08:27.600 the Clausius-Clepyron

01:08:28.960 relation,

01:08:30.000 the warmer

01:08:30.540 it gets,

01:08:31.560 the more

01:08:32.140 moisture the

01:08:32.920 atmosphere can

01:08:33.680 hold,

01:08:34.160 and if

01:08:35.200 the relative

01:08:35.660 humidity is

01:08:36.460 fixed,

01:08:36.760 you'll have

01:08:37.060 more moisture.

01:08:39.440 Okay,

01:08:40.160 and he

01:08:40.680 showed you

01:08:41.160 could get

01:08:41.620 a doubling

01:08:42.960 of the

01:08:43.480 effect of

01:08:44.000 CO2 from

01:08:44.740 that.

01:08:45.660 It just

01:08:46.420 happens to

01:08:47.040 only apply

01:08:47.860 in the

01:08:48.380 tropics

01:08:49.120 and it

01:08:50.740 is not,

01:08:53.180 the clouds

01:08:53.860 are not

01:08:54.400 fixed.

01:08:55.460 They are

01:08:55.940 also changing

01:08:57.200 and

01:08:58.180 counteracting,

01:08:59.840 I think,

01:09:01.680 much of

01:09:02.120 what's happening

01:09:02.680 due to

01:09:03.240 the water

01:09:03.660 vapor and

01:09:05.120 changing the

01:09:05.920 area over

01:09:06.860 which the

01:09:07.420 water vapor

01:09:08.000 acts.

01:09:08.560 So it's a

01:09:08.940 much more

01:09:09.360 complicated

01:09:10.020 affair.

01:09:11.520 And the

01:09:12.260 measurements

01:09:12.720 from satellites

01:09:13.840 are suggesting

01:09:15.380 that the

01:09:16.580 whole shebang

01:09:17.400 when put

01:09:18.320 together is

01:09:19.420 not producing

01:09:20.160 the feedback

01:09:20.840 that you

01:09:22.080 needed to

01:09:23.040 double the

01:09:24.360 effect.

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01:10:45.120 Now you've also,

01:10:46.620 you've expressed a

01:10:48.480 lot of skepticism

01:10:49.640 about computer

01:10:50.660 models.

01:10:51.220 Now when the

01:10:52.400 average person reads

01:10:54.240 that a computer

01:10:55.300 model makes a

01:10:56.280 given prediction,

01:10:57.020 question, especially

01:10:58.160 if it's reported

01:10:59.320 in a peer-reviewed

01:11:00.400 paper, they're

01:11:01.480 inclined to

01:11:02.600 presume that

01:11:03.360 that means two

01:11:04.180 things.

01:11:04.700 It means data

01:11:05.740 and it means

01:11:06.780 fact.

01:11:08.120 But I'm very

01:11:09.220 skeptical of

01:11:10.080 computer models

01:11:10.840 because you have

01:11:11.800 to make all

01:11:12.280 sorts of

01:11:12.660 assumptions and

01:11:13.560 the devil's in

01:11:14.220 the details with

01:11:15.000 something as

01:11:15.480 complex as

01:11:16.080 climate.

01:11:16.540 So on what

01:11:17.220 grounds have you

01:11:17.920 gone after the

01:11:18.640 climate models?

01:11:20.180 Well, you know,

01:11:20.980 actually I have a

01:11:23.180 use for the

01:11:23.880 models.

01:11:27.860 There's no way

01:11:29.240 that models can

01:11:32.400 accurately, well,

01:11:33.960 there is a way

01:11:35.000 maybe, simulate

01:11:37.400 fluids.

01:11:40.020 I mean, you know,

01:11:40.800 the trouble is our

01:11:43.260 atmosphere, our

01:11:44.500 ocean, have motions

01:11:47.200 on every scale.

01:11:48.560 They have motions

01:11:51.700 on the scale of

01:11:52.620 your fingernail.

01:11:53.900 They have motions

01:11:54.880 on the scale of

01:11:55.680 the planet.

01:11:57.720 They all have an

01:11:59.200 impact.

01:12:00.120 The small-scale

01:12:01.380 turbulence in the

01:12:02.340 boundary layer,

01:12:03.180 the clouds, which

01:12:04.840 have a scale of a

01:12:05.680 kilometer or so,

01:12:07.360 the weather patterns

01:12:08.940 that have scales of

01:12:10.240 thousands of

01:12:10.980 kilometers, and

01:12:13.360 you're modeling

01:12:14.480 them on a

01:12:15.160 computer.

01:12:15.600 And even

01:12:19.020 today's massive

01:12:20.300 computers can't

01:12:23.460 resolve a

01:12:25.780 centimeter.

01:12:26.660 That would be

01:12:27.680 incredible.

01:12:29.400 So they have to

01:12:30.880 assume what the

01:12:32.900 small-scale

01:12:33.880 turbulence does.

01:12:35.360 They have to

01:12:36.020 assume what the

01:12:36.980 clouds do.

01:12:37.860 They have to

01:12:38.340 assume what, you

01:12:39.640 know, all sorts

01:12:40.380 of things are

01:12:40.960 doing.

01:12:42.460 And even

01:12:43.660 then,

01:12:44.220 there are

01:12:46.320 some systems

01:12:47.340 where you can

01:12:48.440 prove mathematically

01:12:49.780 that as you

01:12:51.120 reduce the

01:12:52.020 mesh size over

01:12:54.120 which you're

01:12:54.600 approximating things

01:12:55.900 because you're

01:12:56.780 not doing it

01:12:57.460 continuously, you

01:12:58.400 have to just

01:12:59.200 make points,

01:13:00.440 that it

01:13:00.940 converges to

01:13:01.920 the right

01:13:02.300 answer.

01:13:03.700 But no one

01:13:04.620 has ever done

01:13:05.340 that for fluid

01:13:06.180 dynamics.

01:13:07.060 We don't know

01:13:07.600 if it even

01:13:08.320 converges.

01:13:10.360 So you have

01:13:11.160 to, in these

01:13:11.920 models,

01:13:12.280 put in,

01:13:15.020 you know,

01:13:15.520 often you'll

01:13:16.320 run a model

01:13:17.000 and it goes

01:13:17.800 haywire.

01:13:18.740 You throw in

01:13:19.720 damping to

01:13:20.820 prevent it from

01:13:21.700 going haywire.

01:13:23.260 The damping

01:13:23.940 has no

01:13:24.520 physical basis.

01:13:25.500 It's just to

01:13:26.280 keep the model

01:13:26.940 from blowing

01:13:27.540 up.

01:13:28.840 You're doing

01:13:29.720 all these

01:13:30.420 things and

01:13:32.040 you're hopeful

01:13:32.820 that it may

01:13:34.820 still have some

01:13:35.900 insight.

01:13:36.660 Now I said,

01:13:38.140 I actually

01:13:39.180 am not

01:13:40.260 against

01:13:40.660 models.

01:13:42.280 So for

01:13:42.620 instance,

01:13:43.420 if you

01:13:44.020 do theory

01:13:45.660 for a

01:13:46.300 phenomenon

01:13:46.780 in the

01:13:47.420 atmosphere,

01:13:49.520 you usually

01:13:50.640 do what's

01:13:51.640 called order

01:13:52.300 of magnitude

01:13:53.080 analysis.

01:13:54.160 What that

01:13:54.520 means is

01:13:55.120 you take

01:13:56.100 the full

01:13:56.600 equations

01:13:57.280 and you

01:13:58.580 try to

01:13:59.240 estimate how

01:14:00.200 big and

01:14:00.860 small the

01:14:01.600 terms are.

01:14:03.240 And you

01:14:03.680 try to see

01:14:04.440 if these

01:14:05.300 terms are

01:14:05.920 small,

01:14:06.800 can I

01:14:07.280 approximate

01:14:07.900 the system

01:14:09.000 with a

01:14:10.080 simpler

01:14:10.400 system?

01:14:12.020 And can

01:14:12.720 I test

01:14:13.600 it in

01:14:14.020 this way?

01:14:15.160 And you

01:14:15.880 learn a lot

01:14:16.600 from that.

01:14:17.120 Almost

01:14:17.420 everything we

01:14:18.100 know came

01:14:18.820 from that

01:14:19.340 sort of

01:14:19.880 analysis,

01:14:20.860 not from

01:14:21.300 models.

01:14:22.420 But once

01:14:23.080 in a while,

01:14:23.740 if things

01:14:24.260 get complicated,

01:14:26.340 I'd like to

01:14:27.780 look at a

01:14:28.220 model and

01:14:28.920 see whether

01:14:30.420 there were

01:14:31.020 things possibly

01:14:32.100 going on in

01:14:32.900 the model that

01:14:33.780 might go on

01:14:34.580 in nature that

01:14:35.360 I hadn't

01:14:35.740 thought about.

01:14:36.360 And so

01:14:38.340 the models

01:14:38.840 can be

01:14:39.280 useful

01:14:40.020 promoters

01:14:42.120 of more

01:14:42.920 thinking about

01:14:43.800 possibilities.

01:14:44.580 Sure,

01:14:44.740 of course.

01:14:46.900 Of course,

01:14:47.420 that's very

01:14:47.880 different than

01:14:48.540 assuming that

01:14:49.200 they're valid

01:14:49.960 models of

01:14:50.680 what's going

01:14:51.300 to happen

01:14:51.800 with the

01:14:52.320 real climate.

01:14:53.560 So,

01:14:53.940 two questions

01:14:55.020 on that

01:14:55.480 front.

01:14:56.220 Is it

01:14:56.760 hard to

01:14:58.200 approximate

01:14:59.520 fluid dynamics

01:15:00.860 regardless of

01:15:01.980 mesh size

01:15:02.760 because a

01:15:03.900 fluid system

01:15:04.640 has so many

01:15:05.320 degrees of

01:15:05.880 freedom?

01:15:06.360 It's very

01:15:07.220 hard to

01:15:07.800 do.

01:15:08.940 I mean,

01:15:09.280 nobody would

01:15:09.980 pretend,

01:15:10.400 let's say you

01:15:10.860 have a

01:15:11.160 gurgling brook

01:15:12.100 with pebbles

01:15:13.320 and so on,

01:15:14.080 and it's doing

01:15:14.500 all sorts of

01:15:15.040 things,

01:15:15.580 nobody's going

01:15:16.340 to predict

01:15:17.020 the eddy

01:15:18.760 for,

01:15:20.400 let's say,

01:15:20.720 a mile.

01:15:23.200 I mean,

01:15:23.900 that would

01:15:24.580 be hopeless.

01:15:25.960 You might

01:15:26.360 make a

01:15:26.800 statistical

01:15:27.400 forecast on

01:15:28.520 certain things,

01:15:29.660 and you might

01:15:30.540 get useful

01:15:31.160 information,

01:15:32.320 and you might

01:15:33.060 be able to

01:15:33.620 make an

01:15:33.960 approximation that

01:15:35.060 tells you

01:15:35.660 how the

01:15:36.880 roughness of

01:15:37.760 the surface

01:15:38.320 affected the

01:15:39.260 flow rate,

01:15:39.920 and so on.

01:15:41.340 Right.

01:15:42.680 And, you

01:15:43.240 know,

01:15:43.560 all you do

01:15:44.280 is scale

01:15:44.860 that up

01:15:45.480 many orders

01:15:46.760 of magnitude,

01:15:47.580 and you have

01:15:49.160 the Earth's

01:15:49.700 atmosphere,

01:15:50.620 and those

01:15:51.060 little eddies that

01:15:52.000 you couldn't

01:15:52.420 track are now

01:15:53.060 your weather

01:15:53.520 systems,

01:15:54.220 and so on.

01:15:55.040 You still have

01:15:55.720 trouble tracking

01:15:56.560 them.

01:15:56.900 Well, so

01:15:57.820 part of the

01:15:58.540 issue here

01:15:59.100 is that

01:15:59.540 we're dealing

01:16:01.240 with temperature

01:16:02.420 changes that

01:16:03.260 are of

01:16:03.940 relatively small

01:16:05.440 magnitude

01:16:05.980 compared to

01:16:06.760 the potential

01:16:07.360 range of

01:16:08.280 temperature

01:16:09.000 change,

01:16:09.780 and what

01:16:10.360 that means

01:16:10.900 is that

01:16:11.420 for that

01:16:12.420 degree of

01:16:13.900 accuracy and

01:16:14.660 prediction,

01:16:15.220 let's say

01:16:15.660 you need an

01:16:16.840 accuracy of

01:16:17.660 one to three

01:16:18.260 degrees over

01:16:18.980 100 years,

01:16:19.880 you have to

01:16:20.560 have an

01:16:20.840 unbelievably

01:16:21.580 finely tuned

01:16:22.620 model at

01:16:23.320 an extremely

01:16:23.920 high level

01:16:24.620 of resolution,

01:16:26.040 and then

01:16:26.460 with the

01:16:26.820 difficulties

01:16:27.280 in modeling

01:16:27.840 fluid dynamics,

01:16:29.060 it isn't even

01:16:29.580 obvious that

01:16:30.160 you could do

01:16:30.700 it in principle.

01:16:31.620 I think

01:16:32.080 that's probably

01:16:33.100 true.

01:16:35.780 You know,

01:16:36.480 you can

01:16:38.180 restrict,

01:16:38.880 as I say,

01:16:39.720 you damp

01:16:40.280 the models,

01:16:41.120 you keep

01:16:41.480 them from

01:16:41.860 blowing up,

01:16:42.600 you do all

01:16:43.060 sorts of

01:16:43.460 things,

01:16:44.080 and, you

01:16:45.540 know,

01:16:45.760 for instance,

01:16:47.340 with the

01:16:47.740 greenhouse

01:16:48.080 picture,

01:16:48.820 I've been

01:16:49.140 critical of

01:16:50.040 it because

01:16:50.480 I think it

01:16:51.180 only really

01:16:51.880 is useful

01:16:52.540 in the

01:16:52.980 tropics,

01:16:54.620 but it

01:16:56.260 is useful

01:16:57.240 if I'm

01:16:58.680 comparing

01:16:59.140 Venus and

01:17:00.260 Mars and

01:17:01.480 Mercury.

01:17:02.780 For them,

01:17:04.040 you know,

01:17:04.460 the gross

01:17:05.200 idea of

01:17:06.360 the greenhouse

01:17:06.960 does tell

01:17:08.260 you why

01:17:09.380 they're

01:17:09.780 different.

01:17:11.520 But,

01:17:12.000 you know,

01:17:12.780 the changes

01:17:13.540 in the

01:17:14.000 Earth's

01:17:14.340 climate

01:17:14.800 involve

01:17:15.880 minuscule

01:17:16.680 temperature

01:17:17.260 changes

01:17:17.920 compared to

01:17:19.020 the temperature

01:17:19.720 differences

01:17:20.320 between the

01:17:21.080 planets.

01:17:22.000 Right,

01:17:22.400 right,

01:17:22.720 right.

01:17:23.480 Well,

01:17:23.860 then we

01:17:24.200 have the

01:17:24.560 additional

01:17:24.960 problem

01:17:25.460 on the

01:17:25.940 political

01:17:26.260 front.

01:17:26.980 So imagine

01:17:27.780 you have

01:17:28.060 an unstable

01:17:28.720 climate

01:17:29.240 model or

01:17:29.740 an inaccurate

01:17:30.240 climate

01:17:30.740 model at

01:17:31.380 the scale

01:17:31.800 of resolution

01:17:32.400 we're

01:17:32.700 discussing,

01:17:33.720 and then

01:17:34.220 you put

01:17:34.620 on top

01:17:35.100 of that

01:17:35.400 an economic

01:17:36.040 model,

01:17:37.000 and the

01:17:38.000 economic

01:17:38.580 model uses

01:17:39.260 the climate

01:17:39.880 model as

01:17:40.520 an axiom,

01:17:41.600 and then it

01:17:42.240 tries to

01:17:42.740 predict out

01:17:43.240 100 years,

01:17:44.080 which,

01:17:44.660 like,

01:17:44.940 I just

01:17:45.560 don't see

01:17:46.040 that as

01:17:46.460 going anywhere

01:17:47.060 at all,

01:17:47.500 because you

01:17:48.440 can't predict

01:17:49.120 economic

01:17:49.640 development with

01:17:50.640 any degree of

01:17:51.280 accuracy over

01:17:52.020 100-year

01:17:52.540 period.

01:17:53.040 If you

01:17:53.340 could do

01:17:53.660 that,

01:17:54.000 you'd have

01:17:54.340 all the

01:17:54.660 money in

01:17:55.000 the world

01:17:55.380 almost immediately

01:17:56.260 if you could

01:17:56.820 generate a

01:17:57.320 model that

01:17:57.800 accurate.

01:17:58.460 You simply

01:17:58.840 can't do

01:17:59.420 it.

01:17:59.820 So if you

01:18:00.380 stack a

01:18:00.940 bad economic

01:18:01.760 model on a

01:18:02.740 flawed climate

01:18:03.680 model,

01:18:04.480 you really do

01:18:05.160 have a tower

01:18:05.880 of power.

01:18:06.320 Well,

01:18:06.640 and they

01:18:06.960 don't even

01:18:07.520 do that.

01:18:08.940 I mean,

01:18:09.380 the economic

01:18:10.280 models that

01:18:11.300 people like

01:18:11.840 Nordhaus and

01:18:12.560 so on use

01:18:13.280 just take

01:18:14.820 that metric

01:18:15.740 for climate

01:18:16.560 and assign

01:18:18.340 Right,

01:18:18.800 but they

01:18:19.080 assume it's

01:18:19.600 accurate.

01:18:20.280 And they

01:18:20.580 assume that

01:18:21.360 you can put

01:18:22.080 a monetary

01:18:22.740 value on

01:18:24.000 it.

01:18:25.340 Yeah.

01:18:26.020 And then,

01:18:26.760 you know,

01:18:27.920 tune the,

01:18:28.780 I mean,

01:18:29.280 you know,

01:18:30.660 model,

01:18:31.300 there are

01:18:31.640 various kinds

01:18:32.560 of models

01:18:33.160 that do

01:18:34.080 these things,

01:18:35.020 but I

01:18:37.020 don't know

01:18:38.900 what to

01:18:39.280 say.

01:18:39.740 I mean,

01:18:40.380 I don't

01:18:40.960 think any

01:18:41.800 longer that

01:18:42.820 it is the

01:18:43.420 models that

01:18:45.080 are driving

01:18:45.840 the perception.

01:18:48.060 I think it

01:18:48.900 is the

01:18:49.460 pure

01:18:49.840 repetition.

01:18:51.820 you know,

01:18:52.440 and this

01:18:52.880 was understood

01:18:53.540 from the

01:18:54.060 beginning.

01:18:55.180 In

01:18:55.260 1988,

01:19:00.900 when Jim

01:19:02.460 Hansen

01:19:03.000 gave testimony

01:19:03.800 to the

01:19:04.600 Senate

01:19:04.880 about

01:19:06.560 finding that

01:19:08.060 there was

01:19:08.460 global warming,

01:19:10.900 and

01:19:11.180 Newsweek,

01:19:12.740 Newsweek had

01:19:13.440 a cover,

01:19:13.860 and the

01:19:15.820 cover showed

01:19:16.480 the Earth

01:19:16.920 on fire

01:19:17.580 and had

01:19:19.600 the label

01:19:20.160 All

01:19:20.760 Scientists

01:19:21.480 Agree.

01:19:23.920 Right,

01:19:24.440 right.

01:19:24.820 Now,

01:19:25.380 you know,

01:19:25.800 you had all

01:19:26.320 sorts of

01:19:26.700 funny problems

01:19:27.660 at that

01:19:28.200 time.

01:19:28.920 Like,

01:19:29.320 most

01:19:29.860 weathermen

01:19:31.060 disagreed,

01:19:32.880 and the

01:19:33.500 American

01:19:33.880 Meteorological

01:19:34.800 Society

01:19:35.480 decided they

01:19:36.340 needed

01:19:36.700 re-education.

01:19:39.080 I mean,

01:19:39.320 the march

01:19:39.740 through the

01:19:40.180 institutions

01:19:40.940 was pretty

01:19:41.680 effective.

01:19:42.200 And we

01:19:43.320 could talk

01:19:43.800 about that.

01:19:44.560 I mean,

01:19:44.760 that's been...

01:19:45.540 Well,

01:19:45.860 I'd like...

01:19:46.320 Well,

01:19:46.540 let's talk

01:19:47.040 about this,

01:19:47.540 because I was

01:19:48.440 going to push

01:19:48.940 back at you

01:19:49.580 again,

01:19:50.000 playing devil's

01:19:50.680 advocate.

01:19:51.120 So we hear

01:19:51.560 all the time

01:19:52.280 this idea

01:19:54.100 that,

01:19:54.800 well,

01:19:54.960 97% of

01:19:56.360 scientists

01:19:56.780 agree that

01:19:57.520 climate change

01:19:58.380 is real,

01:19:59.180 which is

01:19:59.620 different than

01:20:00.460 saying that

01:20:00.920 global warming

01:20:01.540 is real,

01:20:02.040 by the way.

01:20:02.500 But 97%

01:20:03.860 of scientists

01:20:04.580 agree.

01:20:05.280 And so,

01:20:05.780 and now we're

01:20:06.260 hearing from

01:20:06.820 Dr.

01:20:08.100 Richard Lindzen,

01:20:08.940 and he doesn't

01:20:09.600 agree,

01:20:09.940 but 97%

01:20:11.540 of scientists

01:20:12.220 do,

01:20:12.740 so why

01:20:13.460 the hell

01:20:13.800 should we

01:20:14.220 listen to

01:20:14.700 Dr.

01:20:15.140 Lindzen?

01:20:15.680 And so,

01:20:16.460 let's start

01:20:17.060 with the 97%

01:20:18.360 of scientists

01:20:19.200 agree claim.

01:20:21.440 Well,

01:20:22.300 yeah,

01:20:22.960 I mean,

01:20:23.460 there are a

01:20:23.940 couple of

01:20:24.300 aspects to it.

01:20:25.980 There are

01:20:26.460 some studies,

01:20:27.680 like one by

01:20:28.360 a man called

01:20:28.960 Cook,

01:20:29.900 that were

01:20:30.260 just bogus.

01:20:32.240 They,

01:20:32.800 you know,

01:20:33.220 ended up

01:20:33.780 looking at

01:20:34.260 50 papers,

01:20:35.520 specially selected,

01:20:36.940 and found,

01:20:37.460 you know,

01:20:37.880 this percentage.

01:20:38.800 And this

01:20:40.360 was taken

01:20:40.880 apart in

01:20:41.460 the Wall

01:20:41.740 Street Journal

01:20:42.400 by Spencer

01:20:44.200 and Best,

01:20:45.860 and it was

01:20:47.080 nonsense.

01:20:48.420 But there

01:20:49.280 are some

01:20:49.760 issues where

01:20:51.000 I think you

01:20:51.640 could say

01:20:52.060 there was

01:20:52.400 100%

01:20:53.080 agreement.

01:20:55.240 So,

01:20:55.960 for instance,

01:20:56.660 if you

01:20:57.260 were to

01:20:57.820 say CO2

01:21:00.780 is a

01:21:02.620 greenhouse

01:21:02.940 gas,

01:21:05.080 and adding

01:21:06.020 it will

01:21:07.220 probably

01:21:07.940 create

01:21:08.720 some

01:21:09.160 warming.

01:21:12.120 I don't

01:21:12.860 think too

01:21:13.240 many people

01:21:13.780 would disagree.

01:21:15.600 I think

01:21:16.500 the only

01:21:16.980 thing would

01:21:17.380 be how

01:21:17.760 much,

01:21:18.220 and many

01:21:18.860 people would

01:21:19.400 think it

01:21:19.700 would be

01:21:19.940 negligible,

01:21:21.040 but no

01:21:21.780 one would

01:21:22.160 disagree with

01:21:22.820 that.

01:21:24.140 And so,

01:21:25.440 given this

01:21:26.220 telephone game

01:21:27.380 where you

01:21:28.780 can say

01:21:29.200 something

01:21:29.600 perfectly

01:21:30.240 innocent,

01:21:31.960 and the

01:21:32.580 politicians

01:21:33.140 can interpret

01:21:33.960 it as

01:21:34.260 saying,

01:21:34.940 oh,

01:21:35.220 so you

01:21:35.460 agree that

01:21:36.160 we'll

01:21:36.380 have

01:21:36.560 warming.

01:21:38.140 And that

01:21:38.520 warming,

01:21:39.000 however small,

01:21:40.260 you know,

01:21:40.660 they'll assume

01:21:41.320 is the end

01:21:41.900 of the

01:21:42.140 world,

01:21:43.460 well,

01:21:44.240 yeah,

01:21:44.940 there's

01:21:45.200 agreement.

01:21:47.260 But it's

01:21:48.500 not agreement

01:21:49.280 with what

01:21:50.400 they're

01:21:50.920 ultimately

01:21:51.460 claiming,

01:21:52.200 that it's

01:21:52.700 an existential

01:21:53.320 threat.

01:21:55.020 I think

01:21:55.800 if you've

01:21:56.420 posed it

01:21:57.020 that way,

01:21:58.860 you know,

01:21:59.220 you would,

01:21:59.660 for instance,

01:22:00.080 notice that

01:22:00.700 the UN's

01:22:01.520 IPCC,

01:22:03.720 into

01:22:03.980 governmental

01:22:04.380 panel on

01:22:05.140 climate change,

01:22:06.660 never in

01:22:07.420 its working

01:22:08.020 group one,

01:22:08.700 which is

01:22:09.020 the only

01:22:09.320 part dealing

01:22:09.860 with science,

01:22:10.620 speaks of

01:22:11.040 an existential

01:22:11.640 threat.

01:22:13.880 Right,

01:22:14.300 right.

01:22:14.600 Well,

01:22:14.800 Lomberg has

01:22:15.340 been telling

01:22:15.960 people that

01:22:16.580 constantly.

01:22:17.160 Yeah.

01:22:17.440 You know,

01:22:17.640 he's,

01:22:18.520 with his

01:22:19.240 attempts to

01:22:20.440 shed some

01:22:21.640 light,

01:22:22.000 some intelligent

01:22:22.520 light on

01:22:22.940 this issue,

01:22:23.420 he keeps

01:22:23.820 saying,

01:22:24.140 well,

01:22:24.260 look,

01:22:24.480 I'm willing

01:22:25.080 to accept

01:22:25.880 the IPCC

01:22:26.920 forecast,

01:22:27.960 even though he

01:22:28.460 has some

01:22:28.780 problems with

01:22:29.280 the forecast.

01:22:29.960 He said,

01:22:30.240 look,

01:22:30.420 I'll give

01:22:30.900 you that,

01:22:31.960 but the

01:22:33.740 negative

01:22:34.240 consequences that

01:22:35.280 are often

01:22:35.700 assumed are

01:22:36.360 simply not

01:22:37.200 realistic.

01:22:38.600 You know,

01:22:38.920 even there,

01:22:39.860 I mean,

01:22:40.360 you know,

01:22:41.160 in the part I

01:22:41.880 participated in,

01:22:43.680 we said that,

01:22:45.280 you know,

01:22:46.420 the models cannot

01:22:47.620 handle water

01:22:49.780 vapor and

01:22:50.440 clouds,

01:22:51.840 and thus,

01:22:52.380 there is no

01:22:53.080 basis for our

01:22:54.740 assertions about

01:22:56.500 the feedbacks.

01:22:57.800 That was in

01:22:58.640 there.

01:22:58.860 And it

01:23:02.320 was interesting

01:23:03.140 because,

01:23:04.780 I mean,

01:23:05.840 the whole

01:23:06.240 procedure is a

01:23:07.100 little bit

01:23:07.460 nutty.

01:23:08.940 I was

01:23:09.760 responsible with

01:23:10.700 two other

01:23:11.120 people for

01:23:11.760 three pages.

01:23:13.960 For this,

01:23:14.900 we traveled

01:23:15.380 around the

01:23:15.980 world twice

01:23:16.780 or three

01:23:17.220 times.

01:23:18.040 I mean,

01:23:18.300 the meetings,

01:23:19.920 and you

01:23:20.420 had,

01:23:20.920 quote,

01:23:21.820 thousands of

01:23:22.780 the world's

01:23:23.220 leading climate

01:23:24.100 scientists,

01:23:25.360 which is a

01:23:26.280 field that

01:23:26.760 probably had

01:23:27.500 a few dozen

01:23:28.360 early in my

01:23:31.600 career.

01:23:33.420 And suddenly,

01:23:34.700 when you

01:23:35.040 piled in the

01:23:35.680 money,

01:23:36.980 you know,

01:23:37.260 in the U.S.,

01:23:37.920 I think the

01:23:38.460 increase with

01:23:39.260 Clinton-Gore

01:23:40.480 was maybe a

01:23:41.420 factor of

01:23:41.880 15.

01:23:43.140 You suddenly

01:23:44.040 had thousands

01:23:45.240 of, quote,

01:23:46.500 climate scientists.

01:23:48.340 Now,

01:23:48.980 no one in my

01:23:49.680 department claimed

01:23:50.480 there were

01:23:50.780 climate scientists

01:23:51.840 in 1990.

01:23:52.780 because nobody

01:23:55.140 matters.

01:23:55.720 You know,

01:23:56.060 I didn't know

01:23:56.740 everything about,

01:23:57.660 you know,

01:23:58.040 paleoclimate.

01:23:59.240 I didn't know

01:24:00.020 how you

01:24:00.860 assessed ice

01:24:01.700 cores.

01:24:02.660 I knew

01:24:03.120 dynamics.

01:24:03.980 I knew

01:24:04.240 radiation.

01:24:05.740 Other people

01:24:06.340 knew other

01:24:06.820 things.

01:24:08.260 Right,

01:24:08.840 right.

01:24:09.180 But all of a

01:24:09.740 It's not a field

01:24:10.860 of specialization,

01:24:12.180 climate science.

01:24:13.240 Right.

01:24:13.520 I mean,

01:24:14.340 it is the

01:24:15.240 definitive

01:24:15.760 interdisciplinary

01:24:17.120 thing,

01:24:18.020 and nobody

01:24:18.860 has mastered

01:24:19.540 all the

01:24:20.120 disciplines.

01:24:21.300 Trouble is,

01:24:21.940 when you

01:24:22.160 increase the

01:24:22.660 funding 15,

01:24:24.060 and the

01:24:24.440 condition for

01:24:25.140 funding was

01:24:25.800 supporting the

01:24:26.560 narrative,

01:24:28.160 that you then

01:24:28.780 could get lots

01:24:29.500 of people,

01:24:30.020 all of them

01:24:30.440 calling themselves

01:24:31.240 climate scientists,

01:24:32.700 and most of

01:24:33.520 whom have not

01:24:34.220 familiarized

01:24:35.000 themselves with

01:24:35.720 the physics

01:24:36.400 and the chemistry

01:24:37.240 and so on.

01:24:38.720 So you have

01:24:39.520 this idiocy of

01:24:40.800 impacts.

01:24:42.880 So, you know,

01:24:43.380 you know,

01:24:43.900 you've seen

01:24:44.380 it, you know,

01:24:45.600 global warming

01:24:46.480 and obesity,

01:24:47.780 global warming

01:24:48.520 and diabetes.

01:24:50.600 I mean,

01:24:51.280 you know,

01:24:52.240 anyone can get

01:24:53.200 a piece of

01:24:53.680 the action.

01:24:56.420 Right,

01:24:57.080 right,

01:24:57.500 right.

01:24:57.940 Well,

01:24:58.200 what happened

01:24:58.700 to you on

01:24:59.240 the funding

01:24:59.720 front when

01:25:00.440 you started

01:25:01.080 to,

01:25:02.540 well,

01:25:03.120 let's say,

01:25:04.180 swim against

01:25:04.880 the tide to

01:25:05.740 some degree?

01:25:06.700 Although,

01:25:07.100 really,

01:25:07.400 what you were

01:25:07.780 doing was just

01:25:08.380 pursuing your

01:25:09.020 research.

01:25:09.640 Right.

01:25:10.420 No,

01:25:10.880 I mean,

01:25:11.500 for a while,

01:25:12.480 I would say

01:25:14.080 in the

01:25:14.580 90s,

01:25:16.200 I continued

01:25:18.120 to get money

01:25:19.020 from the

01:25:19.660 National Science

01:25:20.840 Foundation,

01:25:21.860 but never

01:25:22.660 for climate.

01:25:23.660 I was working

01:25:24.400 on hydrodynamic

01:25:25.500 instability,

01:25:26.500 other things

01:25:27.240 that were

01:25:28.820 pure

01:25:29.260 meteorological.

01:25:30.260 people.

01:25:32.460 But by

01:25:33.340 the

01:25:33.560 90s,

01:25:34.580 late

01:25:34.940 90s,

01:25:35.780 I was

01:25:36.840 known well

01:25:37.520 enough for

01:25:38.080 my skepticism

01:25:39.000 of climate

01:25:39.720 that people

01:25:41.100 were rejecting

01:25:42.640 it,

01:25:43.040 saying,

01:25:43.500 you know,

01:25:43.820 he'll use

01:25:44.620 some of

01:25:44.920 this money

01:25:45.340 for that.

01:25:47.980 NASA

01:25:48.540 also was

01:25:51.060 pretty open

01:25:51.780 in the

01:25:52.180 90s,

01:25:53.320 and so,

01:25:54.020 for instance,

01:25:54.440 my work on

01:25:55.100 feedbacks,

01:25:55.900 my colleagues

01:25:56.500 were from

01:25:57.000 NASA,

01:25:57.400 and it

01:26:00.260 was okay,

01:26:00.800 but by the

01:26:01.400 end,

01:26:02.640 there was a

01:26:03.540 NASA

01:26:03.940 administrator

01:26:05.140 who was

01:26:05.880 skeptical

01:26:06.400 of climate,

01:26:07.760 and they

01:26:08.260 got rid of

01:26:08.780 him,

01:26:10.320 and they

01:26:11.060 got sticked

01:26:11.680 up.

01:26:12.320 The Department

01:26:13.040 of Energy

01:26:13.640 was actually

01:26:14.380 trying to

01:26:15.060 keep balanced

01:26:15.880 funding,

01:26:17.400 and then the

01:26:18.460 government just

01:26:19.180 clamped down

01:26:19.980 on them,

01:26:20.460 and so...

01:26:23.920 So that also

01:26:24.700 means that,

01:26:25.460 so that's very

01:26:26.080 interesting too,

01:26:26.840 because it

01:26:27.220 means that not

01:26:29.460 only does the

01:26:30.060 narrative spin

01:26:31.120 itself up to

01:26:32.120 chase the

01:26:32.620 funding,

01:26:33.060 but any

01:26:33.520 elements that

01:26:34.820 would run

01:26:35.200 contrary to

01:26:36.140 the narrative

01:26:36.520 just vanish.

01:26:37.980 Oh, yeah.

01:26:38.760 I mean,

01:26:40.260 at MIT,

01:26:41.180 for instance,

01:26:42.020 we had a

01:26:43.740 celebration of

01:26:45.220 the work of

01:26:47.140 two distinguished

01:26:48.820 faculty members

01:26:50.040 who had died

01:26:50.740 some years

01:26:51.300 ago,

01:26:52.280 this Jewel

01:26:52.720 Charney and

01:26:53.860 Ed Lorenz,

01:26:55.800 chaos theory,

01:26:56.900 and so on.

01:26:58.300 And, you

01:26:59.440 know, because

01:27:00.180 of my closeness

01:27:01.080 to Jewel,

01:27:01.740 they asked me

01:27:02.380 to speak on

01:27:03.700 that, and

01:27:04.360 the administration

01:27:06.500 from MIT

01:27:07.440 decided, no,

01:27:10.220 given his

01:27:10.960 position on

01:27:11.740 climate, and

01:27:12.620 that we have a

01:27:13.400 climate initiative,

01:27:14.360 we can't do

01:27:15.120 that.

01:27:15.840 The department

01:27:16.640 was quite

01:27:17.360 okay.

01:27:18.500 They found

01:27:19.120 someone else

01:27:20.020 to give that

01:27:20.760 talk, and I

01:27:21.360 gave another

01:27:21.960 talk, and so

01:27:23.240 be it.

01:27:24.140 But the

01:27:24.540 administration was

01:27:25.480 upset with

01:27:26.200 that.

01:27:27.820 You know, it

01:27:28.260 again, I

01:27:30.380 mean, now...

01:27:32.040 Well, it's

01:27:32.360 really appalling

01:27:33.820 to hear of that

01:27:34.660 sort of thing

01:27:35.180 happening at

01:27:35.780 MIT.

01:27:36.800 I mean, I'm

01:27:37.860 always hoping

01:27:38.480 that the

01:27:38.880 engineers and

01:27:39.700 the STEM

01:27:40.240 types will

01:27:40.760 have enough,

01:27:41.300 what would

01:27:41.860 you say,

01:27:42.520 clout and

01:27:43.200 political

01:27:43.600 conviction to

01:27:44.360 push back

01:27:44.900 against this

01:27:45.580 hyper-administrative

01:27:47.080 invasion of

01:27:49.100 the technical

01:27:50.420 schools and

01:27:52.220 the universities.

01:27:53.220 How should I

01:27:53.920 say?

01:27:54.260 It happens at

01:27:54.460 MIT.

01:27:55.060 You have to

01:27:55.500 think things

01:27:56.040 are very,

01:27:56.560 very sad.

01:27:57.500 That's a very,

01:27:58.060 very sad state

01:27:59.340 of affairs.

01:27:59.980 Hope springs

01:28:00.560 eternal, but,

01:28:01.660 you know, we

01:28:02.580 just went through

01:28:03.580 the issue of

01:28:05.600 Dorian Abbott.

01:28:07.060 I don't know if

01:28:07.620 you heard about

01:28:08.240 him.

01:28:08.320 Yeah.

01:28:09.220 Oh, yes,

01:28:09.900 yes.

01:28:10.320 I know

01:28:10.820 Dorian.

01:28:11.220 He was

01:28:12.140 going to

01:28:12.600 give a

01:28:13.000 talk on

01:28:14.540 exoplanets.

01:28:16.500 Pretty, I

01:28:17.580 mean, you

01:28:17.960 know, he's

01:28:18.420 keeping away

01:28:19.200 from this

01:28:19.760 issue, in

01:28:21.000 a way.

01:28:22.660 Exoplanets is

01:28:23.640 easy.

01:28:26.500 But, on the

01:28:27.540 other hand, he

01:28:28.320 had written a

01:28:29.160 piece with

01:28:29.820 someone from

01:28:30.540 Stanford for

01:28:32.880 Newsweek, in

01:28:34.940 which he

01:28:35.380 said, you

01:28:36.040 know, they

01:28:36.900 really didn't

01:28:37.640 think diversity,

01:28:38.880 equity, and

01:28:39.440 inclusion was

01:28:40.340 that great.

01:28:41.220 They preferred

01:28:42.620 maintaining

01:28:43.780 meritocracy

01:28:44.800 while having

01:28:47.340 school choice

01:28:48.740 for children,

01:28:50.580 including poor

01:28:51.420 children, black

01:28:52.260 children, so

01:28:53.180 that they

01:28:53.720 could be

01:28:54.640 qualified for

01:28:56.580 equity, instead

01:28:58.820 of it being a

01:29:00.080 kind of trap.

01:29:05.120 And so,

01:29:06.120 MIT's

01:29:07.020 administration

01:29:08.080 decided that

01:29:11.020 that this

01:29:11.960 was not

01:29:13.140 consistent with

01:29:14.940 MIT's values.

01:29:17.260 Yeah, yeah.

01:29:18.400 And, you

01:29:18.980 know, a

01:29:19.300 statement, and

01:29:20.060 you know, then

01:29:20.660 it got to the

01:29:21.580 point, who

01:29:22.500 speaks for our

01:29:23.740 values?

01:29:26.100 Yeah, well, that

01:29:26.780 is the question,

01:29:27.580 all right.

01:29:28.180 And, you

01:29:28.760 know, this is

01:29:29.380 very much the

01:29:30.140 case with

01:29:31.240 almost every

01:29:31.940 university, every

01:29:33.480 professional society,

01:29:34.900 faculty, and

01:29:35.860 you probably

01:29:36.300 know this, you

01:29:37.900 know, the

01:29:38.440 people in

01:29:39.220 these, the

01:29:40.360 faculty, the

01:29:42.280 people in

01:29:43.080 professional

01:29:43.520 societies, are

01:29:44.860 busy.

01:29:45.540 They like their

01:29:46.420 work, they're

01:29:47.140 doing things they

01:29:47.880 like, and so you

01:29:49.560 often choose one

01:29:50.500 person to be

01:29:51.320 executive director

01:29:52.480 or so on, and

01:29:54.760 they're happy not to

01:29:56.060 have to do it, or

01:29:57.120 to be president of

01:29:58.300 a university or a

01:29:59.300 dean.

01:30:00.600 Not everyone

01:30:01.460 wants to do it.

01:30:02.420 They'd rather do

01:30:03.120 their science, their

01:30:04.260 research, and so on.

01:30:04.860 Their research, yeah.

01:30:05.840 Well, that's a big

01:30:06.520 problem, because it

01:30:07.460 leaves the

01:30:07.960 administrative avenue

01:30:09.060 open, eh?

01:30:10.000 And they can speak

01:30:11.160 for you, and speak

01:30:13.440 of our values,

01:30:15.460 without ever

01:30:16.200 polling you.

01:30:17.440 And that's true in

01:30:18.180 the professional

01:30:19.320 societies.

01:30:20.680 It's true of the

01:30:21.640 National Academy in

01:30:22.800 the U.S.

01:30:24.960 There are a

01:30:26.020 handful of people

01:30:27.100 who can speak for

01:30:28.400 the organization,

01:30:29.600 and the

01:30:30.460 organization is

01:30:31.420 full of people

01:30:32.120 who would rather

01:30:32.780 do their work

01:30:33.620 and happy to

01:30:34.340 leave them that

01:30:36.040 power.

01:30:38.400 Yeah, yeah,

01:30:39.680 yeah.

01:30:40.340 So have you,

01:30:41.820 what's been your

01:30:42.720 experience with

01:30:43.620 cancellation?

01:30:44.360 You said it got

01:30:44.960 harder and harder

01:30:45.580 for you to get

01:30:46.240 grants, so that's

01:30:47.580 definitely a problem

01:30:48.500 when you're trying

01:30:49.040 to run a lab at

01:30:49.860 MIT.

01:30:50.720 It also makes it

01:30:51.780 almost impossible

01:30:52.580 to publish.

01:30:53.520 As I say,

01:30:54.440 editors get fired

01:30:55.540 if you get

01:30:56.100 published.

01:30:57.480 The more common

01:30:58.260 thing is,

01:30:59.600 among the

01:31:00.540 peer reviewers,

01:31:01.840 they insist

01:31:02.660 that there be

01:31:03.840 gatekeepers.

01:31:05.840 So you'll send

01:31:06.560 in a paper,

01:31:07.400 and a lot of

01:31:08.040 people have had

01:31:08.580 exactly this

01:31:09.420 experience.

01:31:11.900 At first,

01:31:12.980 it was pretty

01:31:13.480 crude.

01:31:14.840 So one of the

01:31:16.280 papers I published

01:31:17.200 in the early

01:31:17.700 90s, I had

01:31:18.800 submitted to

01:31:19.620 science,

01:31:21.240 pointing out

01:31:22.540 questions about

01:31:23.780 climate.

01:31:24.200 it, and

01:31:25.660 they sent it

01:31:26.440 back without

01:31:27.080 review, saying

01:31:28.040 there's no

01:31:28.540 interest in

01:31:29.280 this.

01:31:31.160 Oh, yeah,

01:31:31.680 right.

01:31:32.220 Oh, yes.

01:31:33.400 But then...

01:31:34.160 No interest.

01:31:35.040 Right.

01:31:36.100 And then they

01:31:36.960 got a little bit

01:31:38.120 more, I don't

01:31:39.120 know if I'd

01:31:39.640 call it

01:31:40.020 sophisticated.

01:31:42.140 You would

01:31:42.940 send it to a

01:31:43.720 journal, and

01:31:45.860 they would

01:31:47.000 reject it

01:31:47.740 immediately.

01:31:48.400 some good.

01:31:51.100 And then it

01:31:51.760 came, that

01:31:53.000 wasn't very

01:31:53.640 effective, because

01:31:54.640 you'd send it to

01:31:55.340 another journal.

01:31:57.320 So what

01:31:57.740 happened is,

01:31:59.320 you typically,

01:32:00.440 and again, this

01:32:01.000 is a common

01:32:01.460 experience, you

01:32:02.280 send it to a

01:32:03.020 journal, they

01:32:04.600 take about six,

01:32:05.960 seven months to

01:32:06.920 review, and

01:32:08.560 they send back a

01:32:09.480 review that says

01:32:10.500 accepted with

01:32:11.680 major revision.

01:32:14.860 And so you

01:32:16.060 spend six months

01:32:17.540 making major,

01:32:18.400 revisions, if

01:32:19.660 you pay attention

01:32:20.620 to them, send

01:32:22.580 it back, they

01:32:23.220 take another six,

01:32:24.300 seven months, and

01:32:25.140 reject it.

01:32:26.200 That got them to

01:32:27.500 stymie it for a

01:32:28.600 year, you know, so

01:32:30.280 that you're not

01:32:30.900 sending it to other

01:32:31.780 journals.

01:32:34.060 Well, it's also a

01:32:34.920 very good way of

01:32:35.720 wasting the time

01:32:36.800 who might be

01:32:38.000 actually trying to

01:32:38.780 conduct research.

01:32:39.820 Right.

01:32:40.960 So, you know,

01:32:42.120 all these things

01:32:43.120 happen.

01:32:44.740 And even with

01:32:47.180 my students,

01:32:48.060 you know, I

01:32:48.820 couldn't tell

01:32:49.700 them, you

01:32:51.080 know, to

01:32:52.460 oppose global

01:32:53.460 warming, it

01:32:55.320 would ruin their

01:32:56.020 careers, they

01:32:56.900 couldn't even get

01:32:57.560 a foot in the

01:32:58.120 door.

01:32:59.060 Well, was being

01:33:01.240 associated with

01:33:02.260 you eventually,

01:33:03.400 was that enough

01:33:04.100 to make it

01:33:04.760 difficult for your

01:33:05.620 students to get a

01:33:06.460 job?

01:33:06.800 No, I don't

01:33:07.660 think so.

01:33:09.780 Oh, well, that's

01:33:10.300 good, that's good.

01:33:11.580 You know, that...

01:33:12.720 I would have

01:33:13.060 expected that to

01:33:14.060 have happened.

01:33:14.700 No, I

01:33:17.020 hadn't seen it

01:33:17.900 happen, but, you

01:33:19.920 know, I think

01:33:21.100 most of my

01:33:23.300 students, I think

01:33:24.120 all of them

01:33:24.780 pretty much, have

01:33:26.120 steered clear of

01:33:27.220 climate.

01:33:29.740 Uh-huh.

01:33:30.440 There are other

01:33:31.340 things you can work

01:33:32.340 on, just like with

01:33:33.860 Dorian.

01:33:34.540 I mean, you know,

01:33:35.860 he doesn't want to

01:33:37.020 get in trouble with

01:33:37.760 climate.

01:33:38.340 Pick an area which

01:33:39.880 isn't climate.

01:33:42.080 climate.

01:33:43.220 The only difficulty

01:33:44.720 with it is funding

01:33:47.580 imbalance can give

01:33:49.760 preference to

01:33:50.580 climate.

01:33:51.360 On the other

01:33:51.900 hand, they've

01:33:53.480 induced so many

01:33:54.600 people to support

01:33:56.600 climate alarm that

01:33:58.660 they probably don't

01:33:59.300 have enough money

01:34:00.060 to support all of

01:34:01.120 the people who

01:34:01.740 want to go feed

01:34:03.340 at the trough.

01:34:05.460 Well, the other

01:34:06.420 problem, of course,

01:34:07.300 is that the very

01:34:10.020 people who are

01:34:11.300 hell-bent on

01:34:12.380 pursuing their

01:34:13.820 actual research,

01:34:16.320 that's where all

01:34:17.680 the real scientists

01:34:18.540 are.

01:34:19.580 And so now, if

01:34:20.280 we're in a situation

01:34:21.080 where the real

01:34:21.780 scientists, and

01:34:22.700 those would be the

01:34:23.280 ones who want to

01:34:23.860 do their research,

01:34:25.220 are refusing to

01:34:27.680 have anything to

01:34:28.480 do with so-called

01:34:29.480 climate science,

01:34:30.500 then what happens

01:34:31.720 is that we're

01:34:32.280 deprived of the

01:34:33.220 very expert voices

01:34:34.280 that we would need

01:34:35.480 to bring some

01:34:36.660 sense and stability

01:34:37.740 to the overarching

01:34:38.740 narrative upon which

01:34:40.220 so many of our

01:34:40.820 economic decisions

01:34:41.660 are made now.

01:34:42.540 So that just

01:34:43.480 doesn't seem like a

01:34:44.260 very good state of

01:34:45.020 affairs.

01:34:45.760 It's not a good

01:34:46.300 state of affairs,

01:34:47.100 but it's desired by

01:34:48.520 the people who want

01:34:49.460 this state of

01:34:50.140 affairs.

01:34:51.980 Right, right,

01:34:53.520 right.

01:34:54.540 Well, so let me

01:34:55.140 recapitulate,

01:34:58.360 because we're running

01:34:58.960 out of time on this

01:35:00.400 section.

01:35:00.780 And so we talked

01:35:02.180 about your career

01:35:05.020 and where you

01:35:07.140 worked, MIT and

01:35:08.380 at Harvard,

01:35:09.260 primarily on the

01:35:09.980 academic front.

01:35:10.800 We talked about the

01:35:11.720 fundamental climate

01:35:14.400 narrative, which is

01:35:15.460 that, well, climate's

01:35:17.080 a major concern.

01:35:18.320 It's changing primarily

01:35:19.660 because of the

01:35:20.140 greenhouse effect.

01:35:20.960 That's a consequence

01:35:21.660 of carbon dioxide.

01:35:22.780 Most of that's warming.

01:35:24.220 There are a variety of

01:35:25.560 potential runaway

01:35:26.480 positive feedback loops

01:35:27.600 involved.

01:35:28.980 You're not convinced

01:35:30.640 of any of those

01:35:31.380 propositions, that

01:35:32.340 climate should be our

01:35:33.200 major concern, that

01:35:34.220 the greenhouse effect

01:35:35.440 as popularly

01:35:36.440 conceptualized is an

01:35:38.040 existential catastrophe,

01:35:39.700 that carbon dioxide

01:35:40.520 is a contributor,

01:35:42.240 again, of existential

01:35:43.120 proportions, or that

01:35:44.880 the positive feedback

01:35:45.720 loops that are often

01:35:47.400 put before us are

01:35:48.340 likely to manifest

01:35:49.060 themselves.

01:35:49.800 In fact, you think

01:35:50.560 that the climate

01:35:51.600 system has enough

01:35:52.820 degrees of freedom to

01:35:53.840 be relatively immune

01:35:55.400 to large-scale

01:35:56.700 perturbations.

01:35:58.220 Yes?

01:35:58.720 Is that a decent

01:35:59.540 summary?

01:36:00.380 Yeah, I mean, I'd

01:36:01.220 modify it a little

01:36:02.260 bit.

01:36:03.800 You know, I think

01:36:05.700 feedbacks and tipping

01:36:08.060 points are slightly

01:36:09.180 different, and you're

01:36:11.340 conflating them.

01:36:12.820 I don't think this

01:36:13.880 system has tipping

01:36:15.180 points.

01:36:17.460 It has feedbacks.

01:36:18.880 Right, okay.

01:36:19.140 Well, that's the

01:36:19.600 critical issues.

01:36:20.580 But they're not

01:36:21.120 runaway feedbacks.

01:36:21.380 Of course, there's

01:36:21.860 feedback loops in it.

01:36:23.340 Yes, okay.

01:36:24.080 So it's the tip.

01:36:24.680 Okay, I'll make

01:36:25.460 sure that I use that

01:36:26.680 terminology from here

01:36:27.740 on in.

01:36:28.600 And then we talked

01:36:29.240 about the, well, we

01:36:30.680 tried to investigate

01:36:31.800 some of the reasons

01:36:32.640 why this more

01:36:33.400 apocalyptic narrative

01:36:35.740 has gained a

01:36:36.780 foothold.

01:36:37.280 We talked about the

01:36:38.040 Malthusians.

01:36:38.840 We talked about the

01:36:40.420 political tilt of the

01:36:42.640 funding regime.

01:36:43.940 We talked a little

01:36:44.780 bit more implicitly

01:36:45.840 about the fact that

01:36:46.680 more apocalyptic and

01:36:48.120 doomsaying prognostications

01:36:49.680 tend to attract a lot

01:36:50.840 more attention.

01:36:51.520 And so that's a big

01:36:52.740 problem.

01:36:53.540 Constant repetition

01:36:54.620 and the fact that

01:36:56.940 children, I mean,

01:36:59.300 you know, Al Gore,

01:37:00.900 no, it was John

01:37:01.800 Kerry who made this

01:37:02.940 statement.

01:37:03.620 I mean, it was just

01:37:04.240 astounding.

01:37:05.400 I think it was in a

01:37:06.080 talk in Indonesia.

01:37:08.600 He said something to

01:37:09.800 the effect that we all

01:37:11.200 know how difficult

01:37:12.260 physics and chemistry

01:37:13.880 can be, but climate

01:37:16.280 is easy enough for any

01:37:17.880 child to understand.

01:37:19.200 Right, right.

01:37:21.880 Which showed you the

01:37:22.940 level of his

01:37:23.560 understanding.

01:37:24.480 Well, yeah, but also

01:37:26.420 the impact is we're

01:37:29.380 starting to teach

01:37:30.300 kindergarten children

01:37:31.600 climate.

01:37:34.320 Yeah.

01:37:34.640 But you don't teach

01:37:35.400 them science.

01:37:35.580 And terrifying them.

01:37:36.460 Yeah, right.

01:37:37.600 Your world is coming

01:37:38.640 to an end in 10 years

01:37:40.100 unless your parents

01:37:41.160 stop eating meat or,

01:37:42.580 you know, God knows

01:37:43.320 what.

01:37:43.840 Right, or driving their

01:37:45.000 vehicle or heating their

01:37:46.060 house to keep grandma

01:37:47.660 warm.

01:37:48.100 Or recharging their

01:37:49.600 electric car.

01:37:51.580 Well, that too.

01:37:53.740 All right, so let me

01:37:56.320 offer a set of

01:37:58.260 propositions to the

01:37:59.320 listeners and stop me

01:38:01.060 or clarify what I'm

01:38:03.100 saying if I get it

01:38:03.960 wrong.

01:38:04.340 So there are lots of

01:38:05.940 drivers of climate

01:38:07.040 variation.

01:38:08.120 The big drivers have to

01:38:09.600 do with oscillations in

01:38:11.080 planetary orbit.

01:38:12.380 Or other.

01:38:12.940 The comparative effect

01:38:13.880 of, or other factors.

01:38:16.040 Yeah.

01:38:16.980 There are so many

01:38:18.060 factors that would

01:38:19.300 impact it.

01:38:21.540 There are ocean

01:38:22.760 currents, you know.

01:38:25.020 For instance, again,

01:38:27.260 it's a technical term.

01:38:29.180 But the surface of the

01:38:30.620 earth is not isolated.

01:38:33.760 You know, it's not in

01:38:35.000 equilibrium with space.

01:38:37.180 It has the oceans

01:38:38.240 underneath it.

01:38:40.080 Ocean circulations have

01:38:41.900 timescales up to a

01:38:43.280 thousand years.

01:38:44.780 And they're constantly

01:38:45.760 bringing fluid up and

01:38:47.560 taking fluid away from

01:38:48.840 the surface.

01:38:50.280 And the fluid is

01:38:51.260 carrying heat.

01:38:53.880 And so the system is

01:38:55.540 never quite in

01:38:56.400 equilibrium.

01:38:57.140 It varies on its own.

01:38:59.620 Until we understand

01:39:01.040 these systems perfectly

01:39:02.340 well, we don't

01:39:04.240 necessarily have a good

01:39:05.600 theory for the fact

01:39:06.720 that, you know, there

01:39:07.380 was a medieval warm

01:39:08.660 period.

01:39:09.040 There was evidence

01:39:11.320 of a warm period, you

01:39:12.960 know, 2,000 years

01:39:14.240 ago.

01:39:15.140 All sorts of things.

01:39:17.860 There were things.

01:39:21.200 Oddly enough, I mean,

01:39:22.580 let's say at the

01:39:23.220 beginning of the

01:39:23.920 19th century in New

01:39:26.500 England, every town

01:39:28.480 had a learned society.

01:39:30.980 And they had their

01:39:32.240 proceedings.

01:39:32.840 And you would look at

01:39:34.840 these old documents

01:39:36.640 of ordinary people,

01:39:38.260 well, ordinary educated

01:39:39.760 people at that time

01:39:41.100 discussing whether

01:39:43.120 Rome, when they had

01:39:46.400 vineyards and so on

01:39:47.700 and so on, was

01:39:48.980 warmer than it is

01:39:51.100 at their time.

01:39:52.400 They're still in the

01:39:53.620 Little Ice Age.

01:39:55.220 And they were wondering

01:39:56.460 if it was just

01:39:57.280 reportage or there was

01:39:59.240 something really

01:39:59.980 different, had climate

01:40:01.080 changed.

01:40:02.500 They were doing

01:40:03.820 sophisticated thinking

01:40:05.300 about it, which has

01:40:07.420 virtually disappeared

01:40:08.500 from our world.

01:40:10.760 We also talked about

01:40:12.400 the 97% of scientists

01:40:14.600 fallacy.

01:40:15.520 And you pointed out

01:40:17.000 that 97% of scientists

01:40:19.040 likely agree that

01:40:20.220 carbon dioxide plays a

01:40:21.820 role in greenhouse

01:40:22.900 warming phenomena.

01:40:24.780 Yeah.

01:40:25.080 But that doesn't mean

01:40:26.660 that 97% of scientists

01:40:28.340 believe that there are

01:40:29.420 tipping points built

01:40:30.540 into the climate and

01:40:31.600 that we're going to

01:40:32.080 slide off the edge of

01:40:33.020 an abyss within the

01:40:33.880 next hundred years.

01:40:34.740 Oh, no.

01:40:35.240 Those are very

01:40:35.700 different claims.

01:40:36.700 No.

01:40:37.500 And it's, you know,

01:40:39.780 as I say, I mean,

01:40:42.960 I was speaking at a

01:40:46.520 group, I think,

01:40:47.440 Doctors for Disaster

01:40:49.440 Preparedness, and they'd

01:40:51.340 give me some recognition.

01:40:52.800 And I decided that I

01:40:54.840 would point out who

01:40:56.320 opposed this narrative

01:40:58.800 during the early 90s or

01:41:01.600 the 90s.

01:41:03.080 And it was leading

01:41:04.340 figures in the field.

01:41:08.320 And Bill Nye, the

01:41:10.240 science man on TV or

01:41:12.180 something, was saying

01:41:14.540 that, you know, these

01:41:18.580 are just old people who

01:41:20.200 they'll die soon and

01:41:22.040 we won't have these

01:41:23.980 objections.

01:41:25.520 And there was some

01:41:26.420 truth to that.

01:41:27.360 I mean, you had

01:41:27.800 directors of major

01:41:29.000 labs, directors of the

01:41:30.800 Max Planck, people who

01:41:32.740 are heading the European

01:41:34.100 medium-range weather

01:41:35.440 forecasting, which is a

01:41:36.640 premier group, all of

01:41:38.720 them objecting to it.

01:41:42.460 Presidents of the

01:41:43.660 National Academy and so

01:41:45.300 on.

01:41:45.540 But starting in the

01:41:49.920 90s with the takeover of

01:41:52.480 major funding

01:41:53.500 institutions and so

01:41:54.960 on, you weren't going

01:41:58.120 to get many younger

01:41:59.040 people.

01:42:01.100 Right, right.

01:42:02.360 Okay, so if we close

01:42:03.540 this off, and maybe we

01:42:05.180 could do this.

01:42:06.320 If you, if you, maybe

01:42:08.020 you could take 30

01:42:08.900 seconds.

01:42:09.560 We get a lot of

01:42:10.340 relatively young people

01:42:11.660 watching this YouTube

01:42:12.920 channel.

01:42:13.400 And, you know, they're

01:42:15.240 worried because they've

01:42:17.320 been fed a non-ending

01:42:18.520 diet of apocalyptic

01:42:19.560 catastrophe and

01:42:20.540 oppressive patriarchy since

01:42:22.060 they were like three.

01:42:23.700 And so if you wanted to

01:42:25.540 address them directly and

01:42:27.640 say what you wanted to

01:42:29.140 say about what we can

01:42:30.660 expect over the next 50

01:42:32.220 years, let's say, because

01:42:33.180 that's kind of not a bad

01:42:34.180 lifespan viewpoint, or 75

01:42:37.780 years.

01:42:38.340 What, what, what do you

01:42:40.760 think, what should we be

01:42:42.580 contemplating on the

01:42:43.560 climate front?

01:42:45.500 Much the same as we've

01:42:47.660 seen.

01:42:48.920 You'll see variations.

01:42:51.600 They've always occurred.

01:42:54.340 There will be places like

01:42:56.460 the Gulf Coast of the U.S.,

01:42:59.340 which had been a citrus

01:43:02.340 country in the 40s, and

01:43:05.160 now is too cold for

01:43:07.520 citrus.

01:43:08.680 Other things will

01:43:09.580 change.

01:43:10.200 Things always change a

01:43:11.440 bit.

01:43:12.780 There may be, you know,

01:43:14.780 several inches of sea

01:43:16.300 level rise, but not a

01:43:20.440 lot more.

01:43:21.160 There's no evidence it'll

01:43:22.360 be much more.

01:43:25.620 You'll still have a

01:43:27.080 situation where if you

01:43:28.260 live in New England, Mark

01:43:30.800 Twain's remark, you know,

01:43:33.060 wait a minute and the

01:43:34.240 weather will change, will

01:43:35.440 still be true.

01:43:38.900 And, you know, that's

01:43:40.360 life.

01:43:42.380 That's why you have

01:43:43.400 overcoats and gloves and

01:43:45.400 swimsuits.

01:43:48.540 And there'll be nothing

01:43:50.120 special.

01:43:50.880 It's not cataclysmic.

01:43:53.160 You're not going to be

01:43:55.160 inundated with hungry

01:43:59.180 polar bears fleeing the

01:44:01.560 Arctic.

01:44:01.860 you're not going to

01:44:03.980 have cities

01:44:06.580 underwater.

01:44:10.420 And, you know, get on

01:44:12.160 with your life.

01:44:14.900 But the question is, if

01:44:17.860 your teacher insists on

01:44:19.740 your saying the world is

01:44:21.500 coming to an end or you

01:44:23.340 won't get promoted, I'm

01:44:25.200 not sure what I should tell

01:44:26.600 them.

01:44:26.940 Well, I've told my

01:44:30.360 students my whole life,

01:44:31.740 don't falsify your words.

01:44:34.400 Because the thing is, you

01:44:35.160 know, I'll tell you an

01:44:35.940 experiment, a psychological

01:44:37.240 experiment that's quite

01:44:38.360 interesting.

01:44:38.880 It might even be valid.

01:44:40.460 So imagine you bring

01:44:41.340 people in to the lab,

01:44:43.500 young people, and you give

01:44:45.080 them a political attitudes

01:44:46.160 questionnaire regarding

01:44:48.280 their views on a

01:44:49.200 particular topic, maybe

01:44:50.780 abortion, maybe climate,

01:44:52.100 whatever, some topic

01:44:53.080 that's, you know,

01:44:53.880 relatively contentious.

01:44:54.920 Then you have them sit

01:44:56.620 down and write a 500-word

01:44:58.200 essay arguing against

01:45:00.200 their position.

01:45:02.240 Now, they know they're

01:45:03.160 doing this in a lab.

01:45:04.380 Then you bring them in a

01:45:05.240 week later and you give

01:45:06.400 them the same political

01:45:07.380 attitudes questionnaire.

01:45:09.080 You find that their

01:45:10.240 attitudes have shifted

01:45:11.300 substantially and

01:45:13.540 significantly towards the

01:45:15.120 direction of their

01:45:15.960 writing.

01:45:17.000 And so the problem is,

01:45:18.820 you can't falsify your

01:45:20.700 words without falsifying

01:45:22.940 your perception.

01:45:23.700 M.G.O.

01:45:24.520 Because your words

01:45:26.100 construct your perceptions.

01:45:28.100 And so if you kowtow to

01:45:29.440 the teacher's ideology,

01:45:31.140 we found this too when we

01:45:32.260 were looking at what

01:45:32.920 predicted politically

01:45:33.820 correct beliefs.

01:45:35.500 So the trait agreeableness

01:45:37.460 did, being female did,

01:45:39.800 having a lower verbal IQ

01:45:41.940 did.

01:45:42.820 But another major predictor

01:45:44.520 was whether or not you'd

01:45:45.540 taken any courses at all

01:45:47.000 that were explicitly

01:45:48.300 politically correct in

01:45:49.360 their orientation.

01:45:49.940 So you have to be very

01:45:52.200 careful about kowtowing to

01:45:53.640 the ideology because you

01:45:54.740 can't get away with it.

01:45:55.900 You'll falsify your own

01:45:57.500 psyche if you falsify your

01:45:58.820 words.

01:46:00.120 You know, I think I agree

01:46:02.880 with what you're saying,

01:46:05.080 but 1984, you know, was a

01:46:11.540 fairly good example of how

01:46:14.080 society can break that down.

01:46:16.420 And so you've maintained

01:46:19.620 your ground.

01:46:20.560 You've maintained your

01:46:21.500 ground.

01:46:22.060 How come?

01:46:23.540 Age.

01:46:25.120 In other words, you know,

01:46:26.500 it's the business that for

01:46:29.520 scientists of an older

01:46:32.060 generation, up to mine,

01:46:35.200 pretty much, maybe a little

01:46:36.520 further, we could develop

01:46:40.000 our reputations, our work

01:46:42.280 product over a freer time.

01:46:46.700 Yeah.

01:46:47.040 The other thing is

01:46:48.080 theoreticians don't need

01:46:50.860 as much money as

01:46:52.740 experimenters.

01:46:55.000 And so I needed money

01:46:57.440 just to support students.

01:47:00.040 I didn't need equipment.

01:47:01.740 I didn't need very much of

01:47:03.420 anything else.

01:47:04.740 Right, right.

01:47:05.920 But it was mainly that

01:47:07.740 people were advanced in

01:47:09.920 their career.

01:47:10.560 if you were a director of

01:47:12.100 a lab and so on.

01:47:13.340 If you were near

01:47:14.020 retirement, you could

01:47:16.160 speak freely.

01:47:18.140 The more sad were the

01:47:20.720 weathermen, the people,

01:47:23.240 the media forecasters and

01:47:24.860 so on, who had a love of

01:47:28.860 meteorology in many cases,

01:47:31.680 were very knowledgeable and

01:47:34.660 objected to this by and

01:47:38.060 large.

01:47:38.500 I would go on a train

01:47:40.360 ride or something.

01:47:42.220 And meteorologists from

01:47:43.900 the media would see me in

01:47:45.480 there and say, thank you

01:47:46.820 for that.

01:47:49.100 But the media have been

01:47:51.640 firing people who don't

01:47:55.640 attribute every weather

01:47:57.340 event to climate.

01:47:59.780 Right.

01:48:00.340 And the meteorologists know

01:48:01.680 this is nonsense.

01:48:02.520 But they just, you know,

01:48:04.620 are being pressured

01:48:05.660 immensely.

01:48:07.800 And we were lucky.

01:48:09.940 Our jobs were not at

01:48:11.520 issue.

01:48:12.040 We had tenure and so on.

01:48:14.440 Yeah.

01:48:15.280 But younger people don't

01:48:17.840 have that luxury.

01:48:21.760 Yeah.

01:48:22.500 Well, and being

01:48:23.100 cancelled is no fun.

01:48:24.320 I mean, I've known like

01:48:25.220 200 people who've been

01:48:26.400 cancelled.

01:48:26.880 And it's about equivalent to

01:48:28.040 a major illness.

01:48:29.460 It's no joke.

01:48:30.960 So, all right, sir.

01:48:32.800 Well, look, for everybody

01:48:34.300 who's been watching and

01:48:35.400 listening on YouTube, thank

01:48:37.300 you very much for your time

01:48:38.340 and attention.

01:48:39.060 And Dr.

01:48:39.880 Lindzen, thank you very

01:48:41.480 much for your calm and

01:48:43.060 dispassionate and kind, I

01:48:46.080 would say, analysis of the

01:48:47.360 current situation and for

01:48:49.320 agreeing to speak to me

01:48:50.760 today and to be providing

01:48:54.300 all the people who are

01:48:55.120 watching and listening with

01:48:56.260 the fruits of your decades

01:48:57.940 of labor.

01:48:58.400 And I'm going to talk to

01:49:00.320 Dr.

01:49:00.660 Lindzen for another half an

01:49:02.040 hour on the Daily Wire

01:49:02.860 Plus platform, by the way,

01:49:04.540 probably on a more

01:49:05.340 biographical front.

01:49:06.580 I'm interested in how his

01:49:07.700 career developed.

01:49:09.900 Hello, everyone.

01:49:11.120 I would encourage you to

01:49:12.060 continue listening to my

01:49:13.520 conversation with my

01:49:14.660 guest on

01:49:15.700 dailywireplus.com.

01:49:17.660 this whole thing.

01:49:18.340 Thanks.

01:49:18.940 Bye.

01:49:19.420 Bye.

01:49:20.060 Bye.

01:49:20.520 Bye.

01:49:20.880 Bye.

01:49:21.000 Bye.

01:49:21.240 Bye.

01:49:21.940 Bye.

01:49:36.020 Bye.

01:49:36.360 Bye.

01:49:37.100 Bye.

01:49:43.540 Bye.

01:49:44.160 Bye.

01:49:45.000 Bye.

01:49:45.660 Bye.

The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast - January 05, 2023

320. Climate Science： What Does it Say？｜ Dr. Richard Lindzen

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