The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast - January 16, 2023


323. Unsettled: Climate and Science | Dr. Steven Koonin


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour and 36 minutes

Words per Minute

156.90512

Word Count

15,079

Sentence Count

938

Misogynist Sentences

5

Hate Speech Sentences

14


Summary

Dr. Jordan B. Peterson has created a new series that could be a lifeline for those battling depression and anxiety. We know how isolating and overwhelming these conditions can be, and we wanted to take a moment to reach out to those listening who may be struggling. With decades of experience helping patients, Dr. Peterson offers a unique understanding of why you might be feeling this way. In his new series, he provides a roadmap towards healing, showing that while the journey isn t easy, it s absolutely possible to find your way forward. If you're suffering, please know you are not alone. There's hope, and there's a path to feeling better. Go to Daily Wire Plus now and start watching Dr. B.P. Peterson's new series on Depression and Anxiety: A Guide to Feeling Better on a Positive Place in the World. Today's guest is Dr. Stephen Kunin. Dr. Kunin is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and a university professor at New York University, with appointments in the Stern School of Business, the Tandon School of Engineering, and the Department of Physics. He has a B.S. in Physics from Caltech and a Ph.D in theoretical physics from MIT. He is the author of the classic 1985 textbook, Computational Physics, and has published 200 peer-reviewed papers in the fields of physics, astrophysics and astrophysics. Before joining the government, he spent five years as Chief Scientist for British Petroleum, he was a trustee of the Institute for Defense Analysis since 2014, and is currently an independent governor of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He served as an independent Governor of the Lander National Laboratory, and he served as Vice President and Provostitute, and served for nine years as a vice president for the National Institute of Science and Technological Development. He s a member of the National Academy of the American Academy of Sciences, who solved technical problems for the U. And he s a former Vice President for the US Government. Today, he's a trustee at the Institute For Defense Analysis. . Dr. Steven Kunin has been a multi-dimensional career, he has a PhD in Physics and a post-doctorate in the field of theoretical physics and theoretical physics, and a bachelors in physics. He sabbatical from MIT and a master s degree from the University of Caltech. And he has served as a professor of physics at Caltech, a postdoctoral researcher at MIT.


Transcript

00:00:00.960 Hey everyone, real quick before you skip, I want to talk to you about something serious and important.
00:00:06.480 Dr. Jordan Peterson has created a new series that could be a lifeline for those battling depression and anxiety.
00:00:12.740 We know how isolating and overwhelming these conditions can be, and we wanted to take a moment to reach out to those listening who may be struggling.
00:00:20.100 With decades of experience helping patients, Dr. Peterson offers a unique understanding of why you might be feeling this way in his new series.
00:00:27.420 He provides a roadmap towards healing, showing that while the journey isn't easy, it's absolutely possible to find your way forward.
00:00:35.360 If you're suffering, please know you are not alone. There's hope, and there's a path to feeling better.
00:00:41.780 Go to Daily Wire Plus now and start watching Dr. Jordan B. Peterson on depression and anxiety.
00:00:47.460 Let this be the first step towards the brighter future you deserve.
00:00:57.420 Hello, everyone. I'm continuing my investigation today into the, well, I'd say energy and environment nexus,
00:01:16.040 investigating the apocalyptic nightmare that's our hypothetical future.
00:01:19.700 And I've been talking to a lot of people recently about that.
00:01:22.100 Today, I get to talk to Dr. Stephen Kunin, who's extremely well qualified to be discussing both issues, energy and environment.
00:01:31.680 He is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute and a university professor at New York University,
00:01:37.820 with appointments in the Stern School of Business, the Tandon School of Engineering, and the Department of Physics.
00:01:44.000 Dr. Kunin's current research focuses on climate science and energy technologies.
00:01:48.480 Through a series of articles and lectures that began in 2014,
00:01:52.940 Kunin has advocated for a more accurate, complete, and transparent public representation of climate and energy matters.
00:02:00.900 He wrote a best-selling book, Unsettled, What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters, was published in 2021.
00:02:10.300 Kunin has a multi-dimensional career.
00:02:12.440 He served as undersecretary for science in the U.S. Department of Energy from 2009 to 2011,
00:02:17.980 where he led the inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review.
00:02:22.000 Before joining the government, he spent five years as chief scientist for British Petroleum,
00:02:27.780 helping them think through the development of alternatives to fossil fuels.
00:02:32.320 For almost 30 years, he was a professor of theoretical physics at Caltech,
00:02:36.000 and he also served there for nine years as vice president and provost,
00:02:40.540 facilitating the research of more than 300 scientists and engineers,
00:02:44.940 and catalyzing multiple research initiatives.
00:02:48.160 In addition to the National Academy of Sciences,
00:02:51.360 Kunin's memberships included the American Academy of Arts and Sciences,
00:02:55.860 and the Jason Group of Scientists,
00:02:58.420 who solved technical problems for the U.S. government.
00:03:00.640 He's been a trustee of the Institute for Defense Analysis since 2014,
00:03:06.020 and is currently an independent governor of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
00:03:12.600 He served similarly for Los Alamos, Sandia, Brookhaven, and Argonne National Labs.
00:03:18.760 He has a B.S. in physics from Caltech and a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from MIT.
00:03:24.700 He's the author of the classic 1985 textbook, Computational Physics,
00:03:29.760 and has published 200 peer-reviewed papers in the fields of physics,
00:03:34.460 astrophysics, scientific computation, energy technology and policy, and climate science.
00:03:41.120 Looking forward very much to talking to Dr. Kunin today.
00:03:45.540 Okay, so the first thing that we need to point out to everyone
00:03:49.440 is that Dr. Kunin is, by any standard, an outstanding scientist.
00:03:55.540 200 publications would put him in, at minimum, the top 1% of published research scientists.
00:04:02.280 So, and Caltech's a deadly institution, or at least it was up there with MIT,
00:04:07.380 and one of the jewels in the University of California system.
00:04:11.220 And then it not only...
00:04:12.600 No, no, no, no, no.
00:04:13.820 It's a private university.
00:04:15.360 It's not one of the universities.
00:04:16.240 Oh, I'm sorry, I'm sorry.
00:04:17.700 Oh, that's right.
00:04:18.680 It's Caltech.
00:04:19.620 Caltech.
00:04:20.180 Yeah, yeah.
00:04:20.560 That's right.
00:04:20.980 My mistake.
00:04:21.480 My mistake.
00:04:22.340 Yeah.
00:04:23.200 A small West Coast technical school, as we used to describe it.
00:04:26.260 Right, right, right, right.
00:04:27.760 So, do you think that there's a STEM school in the U.S.
00:04:32.060 that has a better reputation than Caltech other than MIT?
00:04:34.840 Well, you know, I used to like to say, when I know both institutions very well,
00:04:40.680 I used to like to say Caltech was like the best fifth of MIT.
00:04:45.100 It's about one-fifth the size.
00:04:46.980 Right.
00:04:47.340 But in terms of, again, it depends on which discipline you're looking at,
00:04:51.680 but overall, you can't really distinguish between Caltech and MIT,
00:04:57.100 and in some domains, Stanford.
00:04:59.400 Right.
00:04:59.680 These are all really good schools.
00:05:01.340 Right, right.
00:05:01.800 And the best of science and engineering, not only the education,
00:05:06.100 but for this discussion, more importantly, the research.
00:05:09.600 Okay, so now you also, another thing for everyone to consider here is that
00:05:14.000 Dr. Coonan has also not only worked as a researcher and a lecturer, etc.,
00:05:21.200 but he also worked as a scientific administrator.
00:05:24.760 I think that's probably the right phraseology within the university system,
00:05:28.460 so was able to evaluate and track and learn about a variety of different scientific disciplines,
00:05:34.580 but then also worked in the private sector for BP.
00:05:37.100 We should address that right off the bat.
00:05:39.060 And then in government.
00:05:40.140 So you really have a broad, very, very broad background professionally.
00:05:45.480 Now, I suppose the thing, the appointment in principle that makes you least credible
00:05:51.040 on the climate denial front is probably your posting at British Petroleum,
00:05:56.260 because people...
00:05:56.840 Yeah, yes.
00:05:57.860 Yeah, so Cal, let's talk about that.
00:05:59.620 So why doesn't that just make you a shill for BP, let's say?
00:06:03.500 Right, so I'm, this is about 1980, 90, sorry, 2004.
00:06:11.220 And I had, my name had been fed into a search that BP was running for the chief scientist.
00:06:19.280 And eventually I get a call from the then CEO, John Brown, and he says,
00:06:24.960 come, come be chief scientist.
00:06:27.500 And I said, I don't know anything about the oil business or the energy business.
00:06:32.220 I know energy is conserved.
00:06:33.920 I'm a physicist.
00:06:34.940 But I don't know about practical energy.
00:06:37.860 And he says, don't worry, you'll learn.
00:06:40.320 And they brought me in not to help them find oil or gas.
00:06:47.640 They were very good at that.
00:06:48.760 They didn't need me to do that.
00:06:50.380 But to figure out what Beyond Petroleum, which was the tagline at the time,
00:06:55.200 what Beyond Petroleum really meant in terms of technologies, in terms of viable businesses.
00:07:02.580 And so I picked up the family and we moved from Pasadena to London.
00:07:06.420 I moved from academia to the private sector.
00:07:08.940 And I like to say for the first couple of years, I was the world's highest paid graduate student because I had run of the company, run of the industry,
00:07:19.120 just learning all this stuff about practical energy.
00:07:23.140 In the end, I think I helped them quite a bit over the five years I was there, teaching them how to think about energy, what technologies were promising, what ones might actually make a difference in terms of the environment, but also in terms of a viable business.
00:07:39.680 So it was a wonderful experience.
00:07:43.500 And I would assert one of the problems we have today is that people who talk about energy don't really understand energy systems or the energy businesses.
00:07:54.300 And any academic who's working in those fields, I would say, go spend a year in the private sector because it will change your perspective enormously.
00:08:02.800 Okay, well, let's delve into that a little bit.
00:08:05.040 So you opened up two avenues of questioning there, I would say.
00:08:08.720 One is, well, three, why did you decide to go to leave academia and go to the private sector?
00:08:16.080 What did you learn about, say, beyond petroleum?
00:08:20.440 I mean, first of all, I think it's rather peculiar in some real sense that British Petroleum has as its motto, beyond petroleum,
00:08:26.900 given that the fossil fuel industry is so necessary and stable, but it's very interesting that they have done that.
00:08:33.060 And then, so I'm very curious to pick your brain about what you actually saw as promising, if anything, on the alternative energy front.
00:08:42.180 So, and then I guess the third question is, what did you learn as a consequence of working in private industry that you really didn't know when you were working in academia?
00:08:52.900 Oh, yeah, okay.
00:08:54.740 Okay.
00:08:55.020 Wow, that's a very broad palette.
00:08:57.800 Let me just talk personally, why did I decide to leave?
00:09:00.720 Yeah.
00:09:01.020 I had been provost, which is second in command at Caltech, for nine years when BP approached me.
00:09:08.920 Nine years is a long time to spend in any job, particularly one that's as demanding as trying to corral 280 faculty together and oversee the research operation.
00:09:21.060 I had always been interested in the private sector, and through discussions with colleagues, I understood that energy and climate were hot topics and well worth investigating.
00:09:36.240 So, you know, something, as usual, I took a leave first to see how it would work out and was on leave for two years while I was getting settled into BP.
00:09:46.320 And those were the motivations.
00:09:48.740 I was just interested in energy at the time.
00:09:53.340 Of course, there was the opportunity to go live in London and get exposed to a much bigger world than I was involved with in Pasadena.
00:10:03.160 Right, right.
00:10:04.720 So, a lot of that was driven by curiosity.
00:10:07.360 Sounds like it.
00:10:08.200 Yeah, yeah.
00:10:08.460 A lot of my, you know, a lot of my life is about curiosity.
00:10:12.400 Yeah, sounds like it.
00:10:13.160 I've always had fun doing what I'm doing, and with a physicist's tools and physicist's orientation, you just like to do that.
00:10:21.400 I mean, as one of my elders once told me when I was a young faculty member, a PhD in theoretical physics is a license to poke your nose into anybody's business.
00:10:30.420 Right.
00:10:30.700 And I've just had great fun doing that.
00:10:33.780 Right, right.
00:10:34.720 So, go ahead.
00:10:36.760 Oh, I was just going to return now to this issue of what did you learn on the energy front?
00:10:43.400 I mean, what did you see as promising, let's say, outside of petroleum?
00:10:48.380 And in what manner and why was BP interested in that?
00:10:52.220 And, yeah, so BP was interested like a lot of energy companies at the time, and still for several reasons.
00:11:04.820 One is, look, the purpose of a private company is to make money, and to do it legally, and to do it predictably.
00:11:15.740 They have to do that in the environment, the regulatory environment, the technology, the economics, these days the stakeholder environment.
00:11:26.820 And so I think the CEO at the time, John Brown, was one of the first leaders in the oil business to recognize we had better take this low-carbon business seriously,
00:11:40.120 if only because that's where the stakeholders and the government were going.
00:11:45.740 And I think that nicely segues into, you know, what did I learn about business?
00:11:52.040 We can talk about energy in a minute.
00:11:53.960 But what I learned is, first of all, it is about making money, and it is about reliably delivering a quality product.
00:12:02.820 It is about taking risk, particularly in the oil and gas business.
00:12:07.980 You invest a lot of money up front in the expectation that over 20 or 30 years, the revenues from the oil you produce, the gas you produce, will pay back.
00:12:20.480 So it's a lot of capital up front, big bets, sometimes risky, in a very complicated regulatory environment, particularly for an international company.
00:12:31.680 So, you know, one of the things I came to admire were the people who led these organizations, how they managed to juggle so many different dimensions at once.
00:12:42.320 It's a lot harder than just sitting in your office and scribbling on a piece of paper about equations, right?
00:12:48.460 It's very complicated.
00:12:49.900 Another thing I learned is that energy is about scale.
00:12:57.780 You know, unless you're really going to introduce a technology that's going to make a material difference, at least at the few percent level nationally or globally, you're not really doing very much.
00:13:10.320 You might be making money, which is fine, but if you want to impact the energy system, it's about scale.
00:13:17.400 And so I'll give you one example just to illustrate that.
00:13:21.100 I was once talking to a famous guy who shall remain nameless, was not an energy expert, but he was a policy guy.
00:13:28.840 And he says, I know what the answer is.
00:13:30.840 We take all of the carbon in the used tires and recycle it into fuel.
00:13:35.260 And, okay, he said this with great passion.
00:13:40.540 And so I sat down for a minute after we talked or even as we were talking and I calculated how many cars in the U.S. and how many tires and so on and how much carbon is there.
00:13:50.200 And it turns out it can't make a difference at all, right?
00:13:53.340 It's very tiny.
00:13:55.040 And so people don't understand the scale.
00:13:58.080 Yeah, well, there's nothing more annoying than arithmetic.
00:14:01.820 Yeah, right?
00:14:02.380 Well, you know, that's – now, as a physicist, that's my first inclination, right?
00:14:07.060 How big is it?
00:14:08.120 How much is it going to make a difference?
00:14:09.980 How much is it going to cost?
00:14:12.040 And so on.
00:14:12.480 In the Department of Energy, we used to talk about, you know, new technologies is impacting quads of energy.
00:14:18.240 The U.S. uses about 100 quads of energy a year.
00:14:21.600 Quads, barrels of oil.
00:14:24.200 The world uses 100 million barrels of oil a day, about.
00:14:27.900 And so what's a quad?
00:14:29.300 What's a quad?
00:14:29.960 A quad is 10 to the 18th joules, roughly.
00:14:34.640 It's actually 10 to the 18th – I'm sorry, 10 to the 15th BTUs.
00:14:39.020 But it's just about 10 to the 18th joules, all right?
00:14:41.800 And the U.S. uses about 100 quads of energy a year.
00:14:45.600 The world as a whole uses about 550 or 600 quads a year.
00:14:50.700 So think about that for a second in terms of energy.
00:14:53.760 The U.S. is only 4.5% of the world's population, but we use about 20% of its energy.
00:15:00.680 So, not because we're energy pigs or energy gluttons, but in fact, because that energy improves our quality of life enormously.
00:15:13.160 Well, people aren't going to be energy pigs or energy gluttons as a general rule because energy isn't free.
00:15:19.020 And so everyone is motivated to the degree that they can be motivated by reasonable energy pricing to be as effective and efficient as they possibly can be.
00:15:29.700 And I suppose maybe you can produce a small increment in that efficiency by raising the price, but that doesn't strike me as a particularly good solution.
00:15:36.880 So what did you see as promising on the alternative to fossil fuel front?
00:15:43.140 Yeah, so, right, and let me answer that question in the present day rather than in the 15 years ago when I was thinking hard about those things for BP.
00:15:59.100 You know, first of all, it's really hard to get rid of chemical fuels for transportation.
00:16:06.880 If you think about a truck or a train or a plane, you need the energy density that fossil fuels provide.
00:16:18.840 You know, we run our cars on gasoline or in Europe in diesel, and we want to shift to electric, and I think that shift is slowly underway, though there are many barriers.
00:16:31.140 But when you put the nozzle of the pump in your car, you're wielding about 10 megawatts of power.
00:16:43.760 Whereas if we charge up the battery on an electric car, we're talking about one hundredth of the power flow.
00:16:51.860 So it's really hard to beat the energy in chemical fuels.
00:16:56.160 And so some fraction of the world is still going to run on chemical fuels.
00:17:00.660 The fuels we use today emit carbon, fossil carbon, because we dig the oil out of the ground and use it to make gasoline, which then enters the atmosphere.
00:17:10.820 We could make those fuels out of biological materials, and we've been doing that in the U.S. by making corn ethanol, which is a phenomenally inefficient and not very environmentally friendly way of doing it.
00:17:24.420 But there are other biological ways of getting carbon into fuel.
00:17:30.740 And when I was in the Department of Energy and in BP, this intersection of biology and energy, making chemical fuels out of biological materials, was something we thought was very promising.
00:17:46.880 We started a whole institute at Berkeley in Illinois to pursue that.
00:17:51.440 I think it's still in the research and development stage, but if we're going to have transportation fuels for heavy transportation, then I think this biofuels is going to be very important.
00:18:05.940 Do you worry about the competition between cropland utilized for biofuels and food production?
00:18:12.720 Or are you thinking more about oceanic, like algae or algae?
00:18:15.860 No, no, algae doesn't, you know, algae is kind of tough, actually, for various technical reasons.
00:18:22.680 We would grow things, but, you know, the idea was to use plants that do not compete for farmland or to use the waste part of the food, of the cellulose, rather than the carbohydrates.
00:18:37.900 And is there anything on that front that's viable, like commercial and at scale at the moment?
00:18:45.060 No, no, no, we can't do it.
00:18:47.320 It's the cost, which is really the issue.
00:18:50.660 You know, you've got to break down the cellulose, which is the structural material of the plants, into sugars and then ferment the sugars.
00:18:57.720 And the cost right now is still two to three times what gasoline costs.
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00:20:46.000 Damn the cost. It's real costly if the planet burns up in 100 years.
00:20:50.660 And so why not just force people to, or require or incentivize people to, you know, pay three or four times as much for their energy usage now?
00:20:59.640 Well, I think, you know, as we've seen in France and other places, when you try to do that, people get very upset.
00:21:11.180 And in fact, there's tremendous disruption.
00:21:14.280 And in fact, you know, this whole energy transition that we're talking about, if you do it too rapidly, it's tremendously disruptive because energy touches every part of our lives.
00:21:25.940 And so you've got to go slow. There is no climate crisis. We can get onto that in a bit.
00:21:32.220 Let us take our time, develop the technologies, introduce them gracefully, and eventually reduce emissions as required.
00:21:40.880 Yeah, well, that graceful introduction doesn't seem to me to be something that can be managed from a top-down perspective very straightforwardly.
00:21:50.320 I mean, first of all, we're seeing a tremendous amount of instability on the energy provision front in Europe at the moment, partly because of winter, partly because of the war, partly because of, I would say, clueless, hypothetically environmentally oriented policies in the past.
00:22:06.980 And so let me lay out a couple of the problems I see with renewables and tell me what you think about that, okay?
00:22:11.960 Sure, sure.
00:22:12.400 Well, the first is that, obviously, and this has really been a problem in the UK recently, you don't get a lot of electricity when the wind isn't blowing and the sun isn't shining.
00:22:22.280 And we've had prolonged periods of wind drought in the winter in the UK, and that's a real catastrophe.
00:22:27.980 Now, people object...
00:22:29.360 Do you know the German word dunkelflaute?
00:22:32.740 Yes.
00:22:33.020 Have you heard that word before?
00:22:34.260 Yes, okay.
00:22:34.900 Which, for other people who haven't heard it, it means when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine, so you get no electricity from wind or solar.
00:22:44.700 The German translation is something like a dark stillness.
00:22:48.040 Right, right.
00:22:48.780 Well, and so we hear a lot of noise about the cost, benefit, and effectiveness of renewables, but the cost of renewable energy on the wind and solar front
00:23:04.600 is generally estimated at the cost when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining, not when it's dark and there's no wind at all, because the price actually moves towards the infinite at that point.
00:23:16.120 Now, the problem technically, as far as I can tell, apart from whatever environmental damage wind and solar might be producing in and of themselves, like the death of birds and bats, for example,
00:23:27.540 the big problem seems to me to be twofold.
00:23:30.300 One is that they're cyclic on a daily basis and a weekly basis and a monthly basis, and we don't have good storage, and it isn't obvious we're going to have it soon.
00:23:41.220 And storage itself, everything that needs to be mined and so forth to make batteries, has a non-negligible environmental cost.
00:23:48.840 So it doesn't have to be storage.
00:23:51.440 So let me back up for a second.
00:23:53.080 Yeah, yeah.
00:23:53.340 Okay.
00:23:53.940 So we're on the electrical grid now, and we would like our grid to have three qualities.
00:24:00.360 First of all, it should be reliable.
00:24:02.640 The reliability standard in North America is like one day out of a decade that the bulk power system should go down.
00:24:09.660 The second is we would like it to be affordable.
00:24:12.940 Yeah.
00:24:13.160 If electricity prices get too high, it's a terrible disruption.
00:24:16.820 And the third thing is we'd like it to be clean, both in a local pollution sense, but also in a CO2 emission sense.
00:24:25.240 So reliable, affordable, and clean.
00:24:28.400 I like to think about the old joke during the Cold War, you know, smart, honest, and communist.
00:24:34.700 Choose two out of three.
00:24:36.200 All right?
00:24:36.600 So reliable, affordable, clean.
00:24:39.460 We have a reliable and affordable system based on coal and natural gas.
00:24:43.700 You can be reliable and clean if you do nuclear energy or you do carbon capture and storage with gas or coal.
00:24:52.500 Or you can be affordable and clean with wind and solar.
00:24:58.460 But you can't have all three.
00:25:00.260 The most expensive part of a useful grid is the reliability.
00:25:05.480 Right.
00:25:05.680 It's not the wind and solar.
00:25:08.120 And because you can have up to a month's worth of dunkelflauta, where the wind and solar are not producing at all, the backup system, whatever it is, needs to be at least as capable as the wind and solar system.
00:25:23.320 Which means the cost is going to be at least double because wind and solar are the cheapest.
00:25:28.720 All right?
00:25:29.820 So, and people have done detailed studies using real weather data and costs for wind and solar and nuclear or batteries and so on.
00:25:37.620 And it turns out that we're going to at least double, if not triple, the cost of electricity if we go to a renewable heavy grid.
00:25:45.400 And I don't think that's a very good thing at all.
00:25:47.640 Well...
00:25:47.920 You know, wind and solar can be a supplement to an existing grid, but they can never be the backbone.
00:25:53.580 Okay, so let's delve into that a little bit more, because I just want to highlight for everyone exactly what's being said here.
00:26:03.680 So, because you need a continuous supply of power, and that's particularly true in the winter or perhaps when it's extremely hot, you need a continuous supply of power.
00:26:14.340 And you also need a continuous supply of power that's capable of being reliable during peak usage hours.
00:26:21.620 So, because wind and solar cannot do that, and we don't have the storage, to use wind and solar, we have to have two parallel power systems.
00:26:32.720 And so, I can't see how anybody can think that's a good idea.
00:26:36.240 Now, that's especially the case when, if you produce two parallel power systems, you make energy much more expensive, but also you introduce unpredictabilities into the fossil fuel or coal or nuclear end of the equation.
00:26:56.200 Because it isn't obvious to the people who are investing in those technologies exactly how much attention is going to be paid to their needs.
00:27:06.360 And so, you complicate the economic infrastructure upon which the provision of reliable fossil fuel and nuclear has already been predicated.
00:27:17.740 You're going to have to also jigger the economic incentives, because that backup system is going to sit idle a good fraction of the time.
00:27:28.100 But you're still paying the capital expense.
00:27:30.060 Somebody took out a loan to build that gas plant with CCS.
00:27:34.060 And how are you going to compensate them when they're only being used 10% of the time or less?
00:27:38.880 Okay, so, I think you could make a radical case that switching to renewables under such a situation, if the renewables are wind and solar, is just ill-advised, period, because of the problem of having to double the energy infrastructure.
00:27:55.640 System.
00:27:56.280 Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay.
00:27:57.800 And so, so...
00:27:58.780 There's another problem, and that is the critical materials problem.
00:28:03.240 You mentioned cobalt, I think, a little bit, a while ago.
00:28:07.440 So, the renewable technologies for their magnets, for other components, the wiring, use a tremendous amount more of non-exotic, I'm sorry, of exotic materials.
00:28:21.160 Rare earths, cobalt, nickel, copper, not so exotic, but very important.
00:28:26.380 And the world does not have the capacity to produce those materials at the scale and cost that's required.
00:28:33.740 Okay, so now let's talk about cost.
00:28:38.620 So, from what I'm able to understand, and this is fairly basic, is that because energy sits at the base of everything we do,
00:28:47.600 because there's no difference in some real sense between energy and work,
00:28:51.200 and there's no difference between work and even minimal human flourishing, shelter, opportunity for your kids,
00:28:57.780 provision of inexpensive and plentiful food, you know, the fundamental basics.
00:29:02.080 Every time we make energy more expensive, what we do is we tilt hundreds of millions of people
00:29:09.240 who are just starting to struggle their way out of absolute poverty right back into, what,
00:29:15.480 desperate, scrabbling around in the dirt, fundamentally.
00:29:18.720 And so, and then you might say, well, that's absolutely necessary because of limits to growth.
00:29:24.880 The planet just can't tolerate the multitude of people striving for economic security that are currently engaged in that struggle.
00:29:34.360 And so, tough luck to those people.
00:29:36.540 But the thing that really bothers me about that, apart from the fact that it's cruel beyond belief,
00:29:41.940 is that I don't see any evidence at all that tipping hundreds of millions of people back into absolute poverty
00:29:48.280 is going to do anything but make the planet a hell of a lot worse.
00:29:51.960 I mean, the situation in Germany is quite illustrative of that now,
00:29:55.800 because we've got a perfect storm in Germany, as far as I can tell.
00:29:59.340 We've got dependence on a dictator, Putin, or on petro-dictators,
00:30:04.140 because Germany, for example, just made a big deal with Qatar,
00:30:07.720 because Canada sent them away empty-handed.
00:30:10.920 And then energy costs are extremely expensive in Germany,
00:30:14.120 and so lots of industrial enterprises are leaving, going to places like China and the U.S.
00:30:19.520 And then also the entire power structure is now incredibly unreliable,
00:30:25.140 and it's more polluting by a large margin than it was 15 years ago.
00:30:29.120 Yeah, all true, okay, all true, which is incredible for a country that is founded on rationality
00:30:38.220 and sensible engineering and invented many of the technologies that are used
00:30:43.200 in a modern fossil-fuel-based energy system.
00:30:46.560 Nuclear fission was discovered in Germany, right?
00:30:48.680 This is crazy.
00:30:50.120 I think, you know, Mrs. Merkel is at the heart of a lot of those decisions.
00:30:55.400 She is a trained scientist.
00:30:59.100 She's a physical chemist.
00:31:00.700 I know from talking to people who have talked with her,
00:31:04.100 she understood all of this, but was beholden to the electorate
00:31:08.640 and made the decision based on politics rather than what she knew about energy technology.
00:31:16.300 Yeah, I don't even think that this is based on politics per se.
00:31:20.460 You know, I think what happens to these leaders,
00:31:22.840 and I've seen a fair bit of this in Canada, and I know about it firsthand,
00:31:27.160 and in the U.S. for that matter,
00:31:28.780 is that people get inflamed about a particular issue because they're afraid,
00:31:33.360 let's say climate change,
00:31:34.700 and then the politicians who have very little courage on the electoral front
00:31:39.280 use very, very badly designed public opinion polls
00:31:44.040 to sample people's terror at the level of whim,
00:31:48.000 and then they pander to it.
00:31:49.540 And I don't actually don't think that that's necessary
00:31:52.220 because I don't think there's any evidence at all
00:31:54.480 that that kind of public opinion poll-driven pandering
00:31:58.060 is a reasonable short, medium, or long-term political solution.
00:32:02.640 So it's actually quite a mystery to me how...
00:32:05.300 Go ahead.
00:32:06.220 Go ahead.
00:32:07.040 I was going to say, in these issues, at least for climate and energy,
00:32:11.160 there are underlying scientific and techno-economic realities.
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00:33:24.900 And you cannot violate them without running into big trouble.
00:33:30.820 And Germany is a wonderful example
00:33:32.660 where they just ignored the technical economic realities.
00:33:36.340 The same is true of the climate story
00:33:40.620 where some combination of some of the scientists,
00:33:45.960 the media, the politicians, and the NGOs
00:33:48.600 have quite unreasonably hyped the alleged climate threat.
00:33:55.720 Both climate and energy are complicated, nuanced subjects.
00:34:00.100 They can't be distilled down into soundbites.
00:34:03.180 What we do involves trade-offs,
00:34:05.940 and the politicians will not let the public be informed enough
00:34:11.580 about those trade-offs to make a decision.
00:34:15.680 Yeah, well, some of that's a problem.
00:34:18.320 It really is, in part, a problem of complexity, right?
00:34:21.600 I mean, because you can imagine that there's an attraction
00:34:25.100 to relatively simple hypotheses.
00:34:29.180 And maybe that's a good one.
00:34:31.380 That's Occam's razor in some sense,
00:34:32.940 although you don't want your explanations
00:34:34.440 to be any simpler than they need to be.
00:34:36.560 And so we have, well, it's reasonable to be concerned
00:34:39.760 about the environment.
00:34:41.240 Part of the environment is climate.
00:34:42.840 Part of climate is carbon dioxide.
00:34:44.740 Maybe we should just focus on carbon dioxide,
00:34:47.000 and then we're doing the right thing.
00:34:49.560 And that's where people get led down the garden path,
00:34:52.220 because you don't get to be a planetary savior
00:34:55.200 by jumping up and down and saying carbon dioxide is bad.
00:34:59.580 Like, that's too oversimplified,
00:35:02.020 and the politicians capitalize on that.
00:35:04.880 Right.
00:35:05.240 So let me give you one simpler response to that,
00:35:09.800 which I found to be pretty effective.
00:35:12.820 And I would credit Alex Epstein for your general thought,
00:35:16.420 right, whom I know you've spoken with.
00:35:18.580 There are one and a half billion of us in the developed world,
00:35:23.340 U.S., Canada, EU, Japan, and so on.
00:35:27.220 And we enjoy abundant energy.
00:35:29.780 It's a little more expensive at the moment
00:35:31.340 because of market issues,
00:35:32.820 but by and large, we've got a great deal of energy,
00:35:35.740 and it lets us live the kind of lives we live.
00:35:39.640 There are six and a half billion people on the planet
00:35:42.580 who don't have that energy.
00:35:45.260 And as they develop, as they improve their lives,
00:35:49.640 their energy demand is going to grow.
00:35:52.800 And the only way, sorry, not the only way,
00:35:56.020 but the most effective way to let them have that energy
00:35:59.060 is by fossil fuels.
00:36:01.600 Electricity, gas, coal, transportation, oil.
00:36:05.940 And I think Alex very effectively argues
00:36:09.120 that it is immoral to deny them the opportunity
00:36:13.540 to develop with adequate energy.
00:36:16.800 Yeah, well, we can...
00:36:17.740 And I've not heard of an adequate response to it.
00:36:19.880 I would push that past unethical into the realm of murderous.
00:36:24.300 I think it's absolutely unforgivable for the West
00:36:27.080 to ever say anything about whether or not
00:36:30.240 the developing countries,
00:36:31.480 and that would include China and India,
00:36:32.880 have any right to start moving away from wood and dung,
00:36:35.960 which also kill many, many people
00:36:38.140 while they're burning toward coal
00:36:40.180 and natural gas and nuclear.
00:36:42.960 And I've not heard any leader
00:36:45.860 address that issue directly.
00:36:48.720 I'd love to ask John Kerry
00:36:50.520 or, you know, your leader, Trudeau,
00:36:55.000 or the people in the EU,
00:36:57.100 where is your morality
00:36:58.480 about these six and a half billion people?
00:37:00.660 There is no good answer.
00:37:02.460 Well, this is the argument
00:37:03.820 as far as I can understand it.
00:37:05.640 And I've been trying to follow along,
00:37:07.960 let's say, on the psychological front,
00:37:09.760 trying to piece this together.
00:37:11.580 It's something like,
00:37:13.800 pay now or pay later.
00:37:15.480 Sure, many, many people are going to suffer
00:37:17.680 if we raise energy prices
00:37:20.200 and put on limits to growth,
00:37:21.960 but that will be nothing compared
00:37:23.600 to the suffering of people
00:37:25.360 50 to 100 years down the road
00:37:27.780 if we don't take emergency action now.
00:37:31.040 So that's the basic argument.
00:37:32.580 Okay.
00:37:32.860 Nonsense.
00:37:33.560 Okay, why?
00:37:34.380 Okay, that's not what the science says.
00:37:37.680 Okay?
00:37:38.360 Let me start with, again,
00:37:40.760 something pretty simple.
00:37:42.220 Let's look at the last 120 years.
00:37:45.280 Okay?
00:37:45.760 Since 1900 to now,
00:37:48.580 the globe has warmed
00:37:49.700 about 1.3 degrees Celsius.
00:37:52.700 In that time,
00:37:55.640 we've seen the greatest improvement
00:37:57.540 in human betterment
00:37:59.160 we've ever seen.
00:38:00.860 The population has gone up
00:38:02.300 by a factor of five
00:38:04.100 in that 120 years.
00:38:07.140 The GDP per capita
00:38:09.500 has gone up by a factor of seven.
00:38:11.760 Longevity increased from 32 years
00:38:14.420 to the current 72 years
00:38:16.420 across the globe.
00:38:18.180 Literacy fraction has gone up enormously.
00:38:21.000 Fraction in extreme poverty
00:38:22.320 has gone down
00:38:23.000 and so on,
00:38:23.700 even as the globe warmed
00:38:25.460 another 1.3 degrees.
00:38:28.400 Now,
00:38:29.240 the IPCC projects,
00:38:31.080 best guess right now,
00:38:33.080 about another 1.3 degrees
00:38:35.600 of warming
00:38:36.220 in the next 100 years.
00:38:38.940 To think
00:38:39.880 that that additional warming
00:38:42.280 is going to
00:38:43.780 reverse
00:38:44.540 or even significantly derail
00:38:47.020 the progress we've had
00:38:48.600 is just nonsense.
00:38:50.980 Okay?
00:38:51.120 And in fact,
00:38:52.260 the IPCC reports
00:38:53.540 say that,
00:38:54.900 at least on the economic front,
00:38:57.300 a few degrees of warming
00:38:58.680 is a few percent hit
00:39:00.400 on the GDP.
00:39:01.780 Which will increase anyway,
00:39:03.240 substantially over the next 100 years.
00:39:05.020 Yes, yes.
00:39:05.240 So,
00:39:05.700 instead of going up by 400%,
00:39:08.200 that'll go up 385%
00:39:10.000 or something.
00:39:10.660 Right, right, right.
00:39:11.120 Which is within the uncertainty,
00:39:13.180 well within the uncertainty prediction.
00:39:15.080 So,
00:39:15.300 the notion of a climate catastrophe
00:39:17.720 is just nonsense.
00:39:20.300 Okay,
00:39:20.660 so I'm going to push you.
00:39:22.000 And it says it right there
00:39:22.780 in the reports.
00:39:23.480 Okay,
00:39:23.820 I'm going to push you on that
00:39:25.940 and I'm going to try to take
00:39:27.640 the hypothetical
00:39:29.120 alternative scientific perspective.
00:39:31.760 So,
00:39:32.560 back,
00:39:33.740 I guess it was 100 years ago,
00:39:35.560 150 years ago,
00:39:37.340 something like that,
00:39:38.720 Thomas Malthus wrote his famous essay
00:39:41.500 on population and extinction
00:39:44.660 in some real sense.
00:39:45.820 And so,
00:39:46.280 for all those of you who are listening,
00:39:48.120 you need to know this idea.
00:39:49.520 So,
00:39:50.480 Malthus,
00:39:50.980 who was quite a smart
00:39:51.980 observer,
00:39:55.000 noted that in natural populations,
00:39:57.460 there are often cycles
00:39:58.440 of boom and bust.
00:39:59.500 And so,
00:40:00.240 under standard natural conditions,
00:40:03.280 a population of animals,
00:40:04.880 and that would range anywhere
00:40:06.360 from single-celled animals,
00:40:07.920 say in a Petri dish,
00:40:09.060 up to deer,
00:40:10.860 you know,
00:40:11.220 grazing on the plains,
00:40:12.820 a population would expand
00:40:15.160 until it consumed
00:40:16.960 all of the available resources
00:40:18.920 that would be mostly food
00:40:20.460 in the case of animals,
00:40:21.920 and then having over-consumed
00:40:24.500 would precipitously collapse.
00:40:26.700 And that's balanced
00:40:27.680 in the natural world
00:40:28.640 to some degree
00:40:29.300 by predation
00:40:30.160 and the intercommun...
00:40:31.860 and inter...
00:40:32.600 what would you say?
00:40:33.320 Competition between different species.
00:40:35.300 But fundamentally...
00:40:35.840 Between species, yeah.
00:40:36.880 Right.
00:40:37.200 But fundamentally,
00:40:38.440 given limited resources,
00:40:40.900 a given population
00:40:41.820 will expand
00:40:42.480 until it exceeds
00:40:43.380 the carrying capacity
00:40:44.420 of the environment.
00:40:45.600 Now,
00:40:46.260 Malthusian biologists
00:40:48.240 assumed that that model
00:40:50.280 was relevant
00:40:52.240 to human beings
00:40:53.400 by assuming that
00:40:54.580 we were subject
00:40:55.220 to the same constraints.
00:40:56.520 And so,
00:40:56.820 you really saw this
00:40:57.620 kicking into high gear
00:40:58.720 in the 1960s
00:40:59.940 where people like
00:41:01.100 Paul Ehrlich,
00:41:01.940 who has plenty of sins
00:41:03.140 on his conscience,
00:41:04.560 let's say,
00:41:05.540 made the case
00:41:06.340 in the mid-60s
00:41:07.920 along with the Club of Rome
00:41:09.080 that by the year 2000,
00:41:10.960 we'd have so many
00:41:11.680 bloody mouths
00:41:12.400 to feed on the planet
00:41:13.420 that commodity prices
00:41:14.820 would shoot through the roof
00:41:15.900 and everyone would starve.
00:41:16.920 I remember reading
00:41:18.000 as you probably did
00:41:19.200 The Limits to Growth,
00:41:20.300 right?
00:41:20.660 Right.
00:41:20.860 The Forrester book,
00:41:22.780 right?
00:41:23.080 Right.
00:41:23.500 And the time...
00:41:24.040 Of course, we know now...
00:41:24.960 Yes.
00:41:25.280 Well, the time frame prediction
00:41:27.640 was the year 2000.
00:41:29.200 Now, one of the things
00:41:29.840 we should point out
00:41:30.780 that if you're
00:41:31.400 putting forward
00:41:32.640 a scientific hypothesis
00:41:34.020 that's testable
00:41:35.800 and falsifiable,
00:41:38.260 it's incumbent upon you
00:41:39.660 to specify
00:41:40.300 the appropriate time frame.
00:41:42.100 Of course.
00:41:42.200 You don't get to say
00:41:43.420 the human race
00:41:45.100 is heading for
00:41:46.480 an uncontrollable
00:41:48.560 Malthusian catastrophe
00:41:50.120 sometime in the next
00:41:52.260 10,000 years.
00:41:53.480 It's like,
00:41:53.920 you can just go away
00:41:55.160 with those ideas.
00:41:56.060 If you can't specify
00:41:57.060 the damn time frame,
00:41:58.460 then you should
00:41:59.120 shut the hell up.
00:42:01.020 Verifiable,
00:42:01.740 testable hypotheses
00:42:02.940 are the essence
00:42:04.060 of science.
00:42:05.020 Right?
00:42:05.580 Absolutely.
00:42:06.240 So, okay,
00:42:06.880 so people like Ehrlich
00:42:07.940 who predicted,
00:42:09.000 for example,
00:42:09.560 that commodity prices
00:42:10.540 were going to spike
00:42:11.260 through the roof
00:42:11.920 by the year 2000
00:42:12.920 and everyone was
00:42:13.720 going to starve
00:42:14.240 are wrong.
00:42:16.420 And the reason
00:42:16.980 they're wrong,
00:42:17.620 at least in part,
00:42:18.480 is because the
00:42:19.140 Malthusian predictions,
00:42:21.160 they don't apply
00:42:22.220 to people.
00:42:22.820 And I think the reason
00:42:23.820 they don't apply
00:42:24.660 in some fundamental sense
00:42:25.940 is because we're capable
00:42:27.840 of the death
00:42:28.940 of our ideas
00:42:29.860 instead of the death
00:42:30.980 of our bodies.
00:42:32.000 Right?
00:42:32.180 So we can adapt.
00:42:33.740 Yeah, adaptability
00:42:34.940 is maybe the defining
00:42:36.740 characteristic of humans.
00:42:38.460 All right?
00:42:38.920 We are wonderfully adaptive.
00:42:40.180 people live, you know,
00:42:41.980 from Hudson Bay
00:42:42.860 down to the equator
00:42:43.960 and we do just fine.
00:42:46.960 And I think
00:42:48.160 at least to judge
00:42:49.760 by past experience,
00:42:51.120 you have to have faith
00:42:52.500 that we as a species
00:42:54.500 will figure it out
00:42:55.840 because we've always
00:42:56.960 done that in the past.
00:42:57.960 Yeah, we've done it
00:42:58.700 under more trying conditions
00:43:01.060 than we have now,
00:43:02.060 I might say.
00:43:02.740 Absolutely.
00:43:03.620 You know,
00:43:03.840 and there's a lot
00:43:05.380 of brain power
00:43:06.300 available in the world
00:43:07.320 now too
00:43:07.840 and that's one
00:43:08.440 of the massive benefits
00:43:09.640 of having a larger population.
00:43:11.640 I mean,
00:43:11.880 there's more smart people
00:43:13.220 alive now,
00:43:14.000 especially smart
00:43:14.740 and educated people
00:43:15.660 than there has been
00:43:16.420 at any point in the past.
00:43:17.820 And we've got to
00:43:19.400 let them,
00:43:20.440 you know,
00:43:21.060 do their thing.
00:43:22.000 All right?
00:43:22.480 And that's got to do
00:43:23.360 with governance
00:43:23.900 and regulation
00:43:24.760 and so on.
00:43:25.620 But absolutely,
00:43:26.700 there's tremendous
00:43:27.360 human capacity right now.
00:43:28.860 Okay, now,
00:43:29.700 the IPCC,
00:43:30.940 why don't you explain
00:43:31.800 exactly what that is
00:43:32.940 and also tell everyone,
00:43:34.380 because all the climate doomsters
00:43:36.760 hypothetically predicate
00:43:38.520 their propositions
00:43:40.120 on the IPCC reports,
00:43:42.300 which,
00:43:42.820 and they're regarded
00:43:44.900 by,
00:43:46.060 as gold standard.
00:43:47.060 People like Bjorn Lomberg
00:43:48.280 also accept
00:43:49.100 the IPCC prognostications,
00:43:51.380 but have pointed out,
00:43:52.680 like Epstein
00:43:53.280 and you have pointed out too,
00:43:54.880 that,
00:43:55.540 well,
00:43:55.860 it's one thing
00:43:56.560 to read the IPCC report
00:43:58.520 and then it's another
00:43:59.400 to read the summary
00:44:00.520 and then the summary
00:44:01.500 of the summary,
00:44:02.320 which is mostly
00:44:02.900 what people read.
00:44:03.780 And it starts to become
00:44:04.860 non-scientific
00:44:05.900 and political
00:44:07.040 or theological
00:44:07.900 as it gets condensed.
00:44:09.300 So what do you think
00:44:10.560 the IPCC reports
00:44:12.280 actually say,
00:44:14.120 apart from the fact
00:44:15.000 that we're looking at
00:44:15.760 about a 1.3 degree
00:44:17.520 increase in average temperature
00:44:19.940 in the next 100 years?
00:44:22.500 Yeah.
00:44:22.900 So we do see,
00:44:25.320 we have seen in the past
00:44:26.540 an increase
00:44:27.460 in the Earth's temperature.
00:44:29.060 The IPCC will say
00:44:31.000 that's consistent
00:44:31.980 with it all being driven
00:44:33.500 by human influences,
00:44:35.900 but they allow
00:44:37.060 for the possibility
00:44:37.980 that there's natural
00:44:38.980 variation in there.
00:44:40.560 So that's just
00:44:41.500 on the temperature.
00:44:42.800 What they say
00:44:43.540 about extreme weather events
00:44:45.040 is that apart
00:44:46.160 from things
00:44:46.720 directly associated
00:44:47.700 with the temperature,
00:44:49.000 like record high temperatures
00:44:51.320 or heat waves,
00:44:52.780 you don't see much trends
00:44:54.480 globally.
00:44:55.920 There's,
00:44:56.360 you know,
00:44:57.180 drought,
00:44:58.100 hard to see a trend.
00:45:00.880 Hurricanes
00:45:01.440 or tropical cyclones,
00:45:03.260 hard to see any trend
00:45:04.540 at all
00:45:05.080 over a century.
00:45:06.060 Maybe there's a little thing
00:45:07.100 we can talk about
00:45:07.960 afterward.
00:45:09.460 Sea level rise,
00:45:11.500 proceeding at the rate
00:45:13.080 of one foot
00:45:13.900 a century globally,
00:45:15.580 different locally,
00:45:16.500 we can talk about that
00:45:17.660 a little bit
00:45:18.360 if you want.
00:45:19.120 Mid-latitude,
00:45:20.040 severe storms,
00:45:21.500 and so on.
00:45:22.500 Not much going on
00:45:24.040 at all.
00:45:24.580 It's hard to find trends.
00:45:26.300 It doesn't mean
00:45:27.200 that the trends
00:45:27.860 aren't there,
00:45:28.840 but they've just not emerged
00:45:30.400 from the data.
00:45:32.040 Okay, so I want to...
00:45:33.060 The IPC...
00:45:33.580 Sorry, go ahead.
00:45:34.940 I was going to talk
00:45:36.040 a little bit about the IPC.
00:45:37.100 Yes, please do.
00:45:38.040 So this is an exercise
00:45:39.940 carried out by the UN
00:45:41.780 roughly every six
00:45:44.000 or seven years.
00:45:45.900 They convene
00:45:47.620 a thousand scientists
00:45:49.080 from countries
00:45:50.760 around the globe
00:45:51.720 who are supposed
00:45:53.300 to survey,
00:45:55.680 assess,
00:45:56.300 the scientific understanding
00:45:58.260 of human-induced
00:46:00.960 climate change.
00:46:01.940 That's really important
00:46:02.820 because they focus on,
00:46:04.340 you know,
00:46:04.600 what might be attributable
00:46:05.740 to humans
00:46:06.240 as opposed to
00:46:07.320 natural climate change,
00:46:08.820 which is an important
00:46:10.620 part of the story.
00:46:12.880 And so they split up
00:46:14.360 into various working groups,
00:46:16.180 write very detailed,
00:46:17.780 thousand,
00:46:18.540 two thousand page
00:46:19.540 long reports
00:46:20.840 that actually,
00:46:22.320 in my opinion,
00:46:22.920 do a pretty good job
00:46:24.300 of assessing
00:46:26.080 the science.
00:46:28.340 Those reports
00:46:29.760 are then
00:46:30.480 packaged,
00:46:32.420 if you like,
00:46:32.840 or summarized
00:46:33.740 into summaries
00:46:34.540 for policymakers
00:46:35.560 where the scientists
00:46:37.380 don't have
00:46:38.420 as much of a hand
00:46:39.740 in writing
00:46:41.300 those summaries.
00:46:42.380 The governments
00:46:42.960 intervene quite a bit.
00:46:44.900 And when you compare
00:46:46.180 the summaries,
00:46:46.900 which is what
00:46:47.920 serious people
00:46:49.080 would read
00:46:49.600 if they're not
00:46:50.060 climate scientists,
00:46:51.240 to what's actually
00:46:51.840 in the reports,
00:46:52.520 there's lots
00:46:53.380 of disconnect.
00:46:54.120 And I can give you
00:46:54.860 some examples
00:46:55.800 at some point.
00:46:57.060 And then, of course,
00:46:57.680 you get the media
00:46:58.540 where you have journalists
00:46:59.840 who don't know
00:47:00.580 very much at all
00:47:01.560 about the science.
00:47:02.960 They're on a climate beat
00:47:04.220 in the newspaper,
00:47:05.920 and so they have to
00:47:07.020 provide climate stories
00:47:08.860 that catch the attention.
00:47:10.380 And then you've got
00:47:10.980 the politicians
00:47:11.640 who grab on
00:47:12.460 to all of this.
00:47:13.440 And so at the end
00:47:14.420 of this long game
00:47:15.420 of telephone,
00:47:16.400 what comes through
00:47:17.300 is very little reflective
00:47:19.120 of what the actual
00:47:20.360 science says.
00:47:21.420 All right?
00:47:22.320 So, okay.
00:47:23.020 So now you hear
00:47:23.780 very frequently
00:47:24.620 that 97%
00:47:27.460 of scientists
00:47:28.460 agree that,
00:47:30.220 well,
00:47:30.860 global warming exists
00:47:31.960 or climate change exists.
00:47:33.520 But my understanding
00:47:34.400 of that is the following.
00:47:35.600 And so correct me
00:47:36.340 if I'm wrong.
00:47:37.880 So 97%
00:47:39.980 of scientists
00:47:40.880 agree that
00:47:42.500 there is
00:47:43.620 credible evidence
00:47:44.860 that some
00:47:45.580 proportion
00:47:47.160 of the current
00:47:48.380 trend towards warming
00:47:49.620 is attributable
00:47:50.680 to human activity
00:47:52.540 and more specifically
00:47:53.480 to carbon dioxide.
00:47:54.600 So it would be
00:47:54.880 some fraction
00:47:55.640 of the 1.3 degrees
00:47:57.660 that have...
00:47:58.480 Yeah, right, right.
00:47:59.180 Whether it's a half
00:48:00.360 or whether it's whole,
00:48:01.680 I think people
00:48:02.720 would disagree on.
00:48:03.860 Right, right.
00:48:04.560 And there's some
00:48:05.240 disagreement
00:48:05.960 about exactly
00:48:06.940 the range
00:48:07.660 of hypothetical
00:48:08.940 temperature increase
00:48:10.120 over the last
00:48:10.660 hundred years
00:48:11.180 or the next hundred.
00:48:12.060 Okay, so that's
00:48:12.720 the 97%.
00:48:13.680 What percentage
00:48:15.200 of scientists
00:48:16.460 do you suppose
00:48:17.560 actually take
00:48:18.820 an apocalyptic view
00:48:20.200 specifically
00:48:21.220 in relationship
00:48:22.160 to carbon dioxide?
00:48:23.900 Do you have any idea,
00:48:25.000 any sense of that?
00:48:26.240 No, you know,
00:48:27.200 no, and you know,
00:48:28.220 the 97% number
00:48:29.560 is a made-up number
00:48:30.400 also based on
00:48:31.320 an entirely flawed study.
00:48:33.800 I think, you know,
00:48:35.460 the scientists
00:48:36.040 are not behaving
00:48:37.080 as though
00:48:37.960 it were apocalyptic.
00:48:39.420 I would say
00:48:41.140 95% of them
00:48:42.680 are not
00:48:43.280 in that camp.
00:48:44.520 But, look,
00:48:45.180 that's just
00:48:45.760 my anecdotal perception.
00:48:49.100 You know,
00:48:49.400 I sit down
00:48:50.020 and talk to these folks
00:48:51.000 a lot.
00:48:51.580 Yeah.
00:48:51.940 Right, and, you know,
00:48:53.060 none of them
00:48:53.700 are kind of
00:48:54.320 jumping off the roof
00:48:55.320 and saying,
00:48:57.220 my God,
00:48:58.100 we'd better do something
00:48:59.400 or we're headed
00:48:59.920 for climate hell.
00:49:02.220 A climate highway
00:49:03.440 to hell
00:49:03.860 or something
00:49:04.320 is what
00:49:04.780 the Secretary General
00:49:06.700 of the UN
00:49:07.760 said a couple months ago.
00:49:09.280 Right, well,
00:49:09.840 so that...
00:49:10.440 No, we're not.
00:49:11.480 Okay, look,
00:49:12.240 this is,
00:49:12.980 it's an issue.
00:49:14.000 It's a long-term problem.
00:49:15.860 We can deal with it,
00:49:18.340 but there's no reason
00:49:19.820 to ring alarm bells.
00:49:21.980 Okay, well,
00:49:22.700 then I'm going to play
00:49:24.260 devil's advocate
00:49:25.040 from another direction
00:49:26.220 for a moment.
00:49:26.920 So, I would say
00:49:28.020 of all the data points
00:49:30.260 that I've encountered
00:49:31.260 over the last 15 years
00:49:34.420 investigating the nexus
00:49:36.300 between energy
00:49:37.160 and environment,
00:49:37.960 and the data point
00:49:40.280 that's leapt out
00:49:41.540 at me most strongly
00:49:42.660 is the fact
00:49:43.440 that since the year 2000,
00:49:46.560 the world has greened
00:49:48.080 by 15%
00:49:49.460 and primarily
00:49:50.680 in semi-arid areas.
00:49:52.200 So, let's just walk
00:49:53.140 through that
00:49:53.620 for a second.
00:49:54.480 So, 15% is a lot.
00:49:56.900 It's bigger than
00:49:57.500 the entire landmass
00:49:58.600 of the United States.
00:49:59.960 And green is a lot different
00:50:01.660 than brown or dead.
00:50:03.060 And semi-arid means
00:50:04.880 that plants are growing
00:50:06.280 in places that are
00:50:07.720 damn near deserts.
00:50:09.080 And as far as I can tell,
00:50:10.500 that's pretty much
00:50:11.200 the opposite
00:50:11.900 of what the climate apocalypse
00:50:13.500 prognosticated.
00:50:16.220 And more than that,
00:50:18.460 I can't shake the suspicion,
00:50:20.880 and I would love
00:50:22.000 to be corrected on this
00:50:23.100 if you can see somewhere
00:50:24.100 that I'm wrong,
00:50:25.260 why the hell
00:50:26.080 isn't that good news?
00:50:27.360 Especially when it's also
00:50:28.820 allied with the fact
00:50:30.220 that our crops
00:50:30.940 are much more productive
00:50:32.060 as a consequence, too.
00:50:33.220 So, I could say,
00:50:34.240 hey, look at this.
00:50:35.460 It turns out
00:50:36.040 that there's no more
00:50:36.920 effective way
00:50:37.900 of delivering fertilizer
00:50:39.460 for plants worldwide
00:50:41.340 than to burn fossil fuels.
00:50:44.260 Yeah.
00:50:44.680 So, let's back up
00:50:46.420 on the science
00:50:47.060 for a second first.
00:50:48.360 So, plants love CO2.
00:50:50.760 All right?
00:50:51.080 We pump CO2
00:50:52.120 into greenhouses
00:50:53.180 in order to get
00:50:54.320 the plants
00:50:54.880 to grow better.
00:50:56.540 Right now,
00:50:57.180 in the atmosphere,
00:50:58.020 the concentration
00:50:58.780 is about 420.
00:51:00.220 parts per million
00:51:01.280 of CO2.
00:51:02.160 We raise it
00:51:02.940 to over 1,000
00:51:04.000 parts per million
00:51:05.020 in greenhouses
00:51:06.080 to help the plants grow.
00:51:08.500 The CO2 not only
00:51:09.840 lets them grow faster,
00:51:11.300 but it lets them
00:51:12.140 use water more efficiently.
00:51:14.060 Right, right.
00:51:14.340 They don't have to
00:51:15.020 open up the stomata
00:51:16.440 and lose water as much.
00:51:18.900 You're 15%
00:51:20.180 since 2000.
00:51:22.580 If you'd asked me,
00:51:23.620 I would have said
00:51:24.180 it's more like 40%
00:51:25.600 since the 1980s.
00:51:27.660 All right?
00:51:27.980 So, yeah.
00:51:28.720 Things are growing
00:51:30.060 better on Earth
00:51:31.440 since 1980.
00:51:32.860 Wow.
00:51:33.060 Something called
00:51:34.020 the Leaf Area Index
00:51:35.580 has gone up.
00:51:36.540 NASA produces maps
00:51:38.540 that show this.
00:51:39.900 They write press releases
00:51:41.340 that show this,
00:51:42.840 but somehow
00:51:43.580 it's not really present
00:51:45.380 in the media.
00:51:46.400 Okay, so how come
00:51:48.140 we're not,
00:51:48.860 how come we can't
00:51:50.160 take the stance
00:51:50.940 that carbon dioxide
00:51:51.840 is a net good?
00:51:53.000 Because that's such
00:51:54.180 an alloping statistic.
00:51:55.600 40% since the 1980s.
00:51:58.180 I mean,
00:51:58.600 I don't know
00:51:59.340 of another set
00:52:00.640 of data
00:52:01.180 that has,
00:52:02.300 well,
00:52:02.480 let's call that
00:52:03.220 that scale.
00:52:05.000 Right?
00:52:05.280 That's really something.
00:52:06.560 And green...
00:52:07.400 That's important, right?
00:52:08.800 And if you look
00:52:09.520 at the agricultural yields
00:52:11.200 and so on,
00:52:12.200 whether it's in the U.S.
00:52:13.280 or India,
00:52:14.520 has been going gangbusters
00:52:16.380 on producing crops.
00:52:19.560 You know,
00:52:19.980 this is certainly
00:52:20.860 one of the benefits.
00:52:22.400 And it's a significant one.
00:52:24.120 That has to be weighed
00:52:25.460 against hypothetical,
00:52:27.540 detrimental effects
00:52:30.020 from global warming.
00:52:32.160 And the net of them
00:52:33.340 is a few percent.
00:52:35.100 Again,
00:52:35.340 it's in the noise.
00:52:36.340 You can't distinguish it.
00:52:38.200 There are other factors
00:52:39.340 about human well-being
00:52:40.540 that are much more important
00:52:42.100 than whether the climate's
00:52:43.460 changing or not.
00:52:44.840 So, you know,
00:52:45.600 if I were to be
00:52:46.480 a little snarky,
00:52:48.080 it's almost
00:52:48.700 a nothing burger.
00:52:50.040 The science says that.
00:52:51.280 If you read the reports,
00:52:53.280 but the detrimental effects
00:52:56.240 get hyped up
00:52:57.860 by various players.
00:53:00.740 The other thing
00:53:01.760 that I've seen
00:53:02.360 the drum being beat
00:53:03.540 about quite assiduously,
00:53:05.980 let's say,
00:53:06.480 in recent years,
00:53:07.760 and maybe,
00:53:08.340 I don't know
00:53:08.840 how much you know
00:53:09.640 about this.
00:53:10.140 I don't know enough
00:53:10.860 about it.
00:53:11.820 That's for sure.
00:53:13.340 There are people
00:53:14.560 who are claiming
00:53:15.360 now,
00:53:16.720 and maybe this is
00:53:17.520 because some of the shine
00:53:18.500 has gone off
00:53:19.100 the climate apocalypse
00:53:21.880 that were headed
00:53:23.060 for a mass extinction.
00:53:24.540 And I read a couple
00:53:25.300 of computer models
00:53:26.160 the other day
00:53:26.740 that were published
00:53:27.440 saying that there's
00:53:28.720 like a domino effect
00:53:30.180 with regards
00:53:30.700 to mass extinction.
00:53:31.960 And, I mean,
00:53:32.500 there are a lot of people,
00:53:33.740 and although there's
00:53:34.780 a lot of greenery now,
00:53:35.960 and there's more forest
00:53:36.880 in the northern hemisphere,
00:53:38.060 so, you know,
00:53:38.520 those are powerful,
00:53:39.520 countervailing proclivities.
00:53:40.820 But do you have
00:53:42.220 any specific knowledge
00:53:44.040 about our effects
00:53:46.500 on the mass extinction front?
00:53:48.140 Yeah.
00:53:48.480 No, you know,
00:53:49.340 like a senior academic
00:53:51.020 as you and I are,
00:53:52.720 you're reluctant
00:53:53.420 to talk about things
00:53:54.580 you don't know much about.
00:53:56.860 And I'm very careful
00:53:58.440 about that.
00:53:59.740 I don't know about
00:54:01.060 the projections
00:54:02.340 you're talking about,
00:54:03.660 but I'm a priori
00:54:05.080 very suspicious
00:54:06.080 because these are
00:54:08.340 complicated physical,
00:54:09.760 biological systems
00:54:11.700 and small effects
00:54:13.780 can have a big influence.
00:54:16.240 And so I'm skeptical.
00:54:17.660 If I were to look
00:54:18.340 at those papers,
00:54:19.420 one of the first things
00:54:20.440 I would ask is,
00:54:22.200 how well have you
00:54:23.120 reproduced the past?
00:54:24.800 Because unless you
00:54:25.800 can reproduce
00:54:26.400 the dominant changes
00:54:28.180 that we've seen
00:54:29.020 over the last
00:54:29.720 hundred years,
00:54:30.820 thousand years,
00:54:31.660 whatever,
00:54:32.500 I don't have much confidence
00:54:34.460 in your ability
00:54:35.200 to predict.
00:54:35.620 Well, okay,
00:54:36.400 let's talk about
00:54:37.200 models some more.
00:54:38.080 So one of the things
00:54:39.000 I want to point out
00:54:39.840 to people,
00:54:40.360 and you tell me
00:54:41.040 what you think
00:54:41.540 about this,
00:54:42.140 is that it is
00:54:43.400 perfectly possible
00:54:44.540 to produce
00:54:45.920 pretty damn good
00:54:47.680 computer models
00:54:49.480 that predict
00:54:50.460 the behavior
00:54:51.600 of the stock market
00:54:52.680 in the past.
00:54:54.060 And the stock market's
00:54:54.960 very complex,
00:54:55.760 of course,
00:54:56.180 because it's an index
00:54:57.660 of, well,
00:54:58.880 the sum total
00:54:59.620 of human economic activity
00:55:01.220 plus political activity.
00:55:02.500 So it's a very
00:55:03.240 dynamic system,
00:55:04.120 and it's full of
00:55:04.800 weird feedback loops
00:55:06.120 because as soon
00:55:06.760 as you can predict
00:55:07.600 it,
00:55:08.200 you perturb the system.
00:55:09.940 But in any case,
00:55:11.220 here's the fundamental
00:55:12.280 point.
00:55:13.120 It doesn't appear
00:55:13.880 to me at all
00:55:14.460 that the stock market
00:55:15.460 is more complex
00:55:16.360 than the climate.
00:55:17.520 And if you could
00:55:18.240 produce a model
00:55:19.000 that could predict
00:55:19.780 the climate,
00:55:20.660 then you could
00:55:21.180 produce a model
00:55:22.760 that would predict
00:55:23.280 the stock market.
00:55:24.120 And if you could
00:55:24.680 produce that model,
00:55:26.160 even if you only
00:55:27.020 were right 51%
00:55:28.940 of the time,
00:55:30.340 consistently,
00:55:31.520 you would soon
00:55:32.480 have all the money.
00:55:34.080 And I don't see
00:55:34.800 anybody who's
00:55:35.660 developing these
00:55:36.420 very complex models
00:55:37.660 who has all the money,
00:55:39.320 so I don't think
00:55:40.140 that they can make
00:55:41.200 models that can
00:55:42.560 model the behavior
00:55:43.340 of systems that complex.
00:55:44.980 And so let's talk
00:55:45.700 about models a bit.
00:55:46.960 So let's talk
00:55:48.000 about models a little bit.
00:55:49.120 Let me back up again
00:55:50.580 and talk about
00:55:51.560 some of the basics.
00:55:53.900 The most used models
00:55:55.660 for the climate system
00:55:57.400 are what are called
00:55:58.220 general circulation models.
00:56:00.580 They cut the atmosphere
00:56:02.380 and the ocean up
00:56:03.540 into cubes
00:56:05.060 about 100 kilometers
00:56:07.460 on a side,
00:56:08.340 60 miles on a side,
00:56:10.420 and going up
00:56:11.660 20 layers
00:56:12.400 in the atmosphere
00:56:13.180 and then 20 layers
00:56:15.160 down in the ocean.
00:56:17.260 And we have,
00:56:18.640 a difference to the
00:56:19.360 stock market is
00:56:20.140 we have some
00:56:20.860 underlying physical laws,
00:56:23.560 laws of conservation
00:56:25.160 of energy,
00:56:26.240 mass, momentum,
00:56:27.640 and so on,
00:56:28.300 that govern
00:56:29.260 how the air,
00:56:30.840 the radiation,
00:56:31.740 both sunlight
00:56:32.700 and heat radiation,
00:56:34.560 water vapor,
00:56:35.460 flow through these boxes.
00:56:37.540 Newton understood those,
00:56:38.840 or Euler,
00:56:40.240 back in the 19th century
00:56:41.620 or even earlier.
00:56:43.220 And we can build
00:56:45.340 such models
00:56:46.300 and use computers.
00:56:48.440 So you wind up
00:56:49.260 with a,
00:56:50.040 I've ordered,
00:56:50.560 10 million boxes
00:56:51.800 covering the earth,
00:56:53.480 going up and down
00:56:54.460 in the ocean,
00:56:55.340 the atmosphere.
00:56:55.840 And then you follow
00:56:57.320 the flow of stuff
00:56:58.840 through these boxes
00:57:00.000 every 10 minutes,
00:57:01.980 10 minute time steps.
00:57:03.680 And you do that
00:57:04.660 for a century or so,
00:57:06.960 and you got some description
00:57:08.440 of what you think
00:57:09.300 is the climate.
00:57:10.740 But there are lots
00:57:11.680 of problems
00:57:12.560 with that.
00:57:14.500 One is that
00:57:15.480 60 miles on a side
00:57:17.180 is not sufficient
00:57:18.900 to describe
00:57:20.300 the difference in climate
00:57:21.840 between New York
00:57:23.000 and Washington, D.C.
00:57:24.200 or New York and Toronto,
00:57:25.800 for example.
00:57:26.400 So that's one.
00:57:27.060 And so the second
00:57:29.140 is a lot of phenomena
00:57:31.020 happen on much
00:57:32.320 smaller sizes.
00:57:33.940 Think about
00:57:34.420 thunderheads,
00:57:35.420 for example.
00:57:36.400 They happen
00:57:37.260 on a few mile scale.
00:57:39.220 So you have to make up
00:57:40.480 some assumption
00:57:41.360 about what's going on
00:57:42.380 inside each of these boxes.
00:57:44.200 And different people
00:57:45.000 make different assumptions.
00:57:47.680 A third
00:57:48.260 is that
00:57:49.380 the boxes
00:57:50.220 are not really cubes,
00:57:51.600 but they're pancakes
00:57:52.500 because the atmosphere
00:57:54.040 is really thin
00:57:56.040 compared to the size
00:57:57.460 of the Earth,
00:57:57.940 and the ocean
00:57:58.380 is also pretty thin.
00:58:00.080 And so you have
00:58:01.060 to make up
00:58:01.860 assumptions
00:58:02.760 about how things
00:58:04.260 move vertically
00:58:05.200 that are not
00:58:06.680 directly tied
00:58:07.660 to the fundamental
00:58:08.840 physical laws.
00:58:11.260 So all of those
00:58:13.080 make a lot of trouble,
00:58:14.860 and that's why
00:58:15.380 the world has
00:58:15.960 50 different
00:58:16.740 such models,
00:58:17.900 and to get predictions,
00:58:19.500 they average
00:58:20.060 all of them together.
00:58:21.320 Okay, so
00:58:22.340 let's take that apart
00:58:24.920 just so everyone
00:58:25.640 understands.
00:58:26.400 So the first is
00:58:27.160 these models
00:58:27.900 are not very
00:58:28.500 high resolution,
00:58:29.860 either spatially
00:58:30.900 or temporally.
00:58:31.860 So you have to use
00:58:32.980 huge cubes
00:58:33.780 plus your only
00:58:34.660 sampling...
00:58:35.120 Temporally,
00:58:36.260 well,
00:58:36.920 temporally is pretty good,
00:58:37.960 10 minutes.
00:58:40.020 Spatially,
00:58:40.780 it's terrible.
00:58:42.340 But we also,
00:58:43.320 well,
00:58:43.900 perhaps on the
00:58:45.060 temporal side,
00:58:45.760 I mean,
00:58:45.940 the thing is
00:58:46.500 we're looking at
00:58:47.360 relatively small
00:58:48.520 deviations in temperature,
00:58:50.600 right?
00:58:50.780 If it's one degree
00:58:51.500 over a century,
00:58:52.500 this is not
00:58:53.320 a huge effect,
00:58:54.280 and what that means
00:58:55.260 is that the models
00:58:56.300 aren't high resolution
00:58:57.620 enough to be accurate
00:58:58.900 to that scale.
00:59:00.200 They're simply not.
00:59:01.240 That's true.
00:59:02.000 That's true.
00:59:02.800 Now,
00:59:03.140 that doesn't,
00:59:03.740 okay,
00:59:04.120 that doesn't mean
00:59:04.780 we shouldn't model
00:59:05.860 because our models
00:59:07.660 get better and better
00:59:08.500 all the time,
00:59:09.400 but there's a big
00:59:10.720 difference between
00:59:11.500 modeling something,
00:59:12.500 even if you can make
00:59:13.300 it accurate to predict
00:59:14.280 the past,
00:59:15.420 and being able
00:59:16.160 to model the present,
00:59:17.320 but there's a
00:59:17.960 walloping difference
00:59:18.920 between being able
00:59:19.740 to model the present
00:59:20.620 and being able
00:59:21.240 to model climate
00:59:22.140 a hundred years
00:59:23.200 from now
00:59:23.740 because the errors
00:59:24.540 compound as you
00:59:25.700 predict out into
00:59:26.680 the future.
00:59:28.100 Well,
00:59:28.540 yes,
00:59:29.080 that's certainly true,
00:59:30.540 although you hope
00:59:31.220 to be describing
00:59:32.040 averages that are
00:59:33.240 reasonably well
00:59:34.280 predicted.
00:59:35.660 You know,
00:59:35.940 there's several comments
00:59:37.000 about that.
00:59:38.000 One is,
00:59:39.380 you know,
00:59:39.700 human influences
00:59:41.140 are small.
00:59:42.800 They're,
00:59:43.080 as you say,
00:59:43.560 a one percent effect.
00:59:44.840 We're concerned
00:59:45.920 about a rise
00:59:46.640 of two degrees,
00:59:48.160 whereas the Earth's
00:59:48.680 surface temperature
00:59:49.460 is about 300 degrees,
00:59:51.580 so it's like
00:59:52.100 a one percent effect.
00:59:53.860 The second is,
00:59:54.800 we're interested
00:59:55.420 not in describing
00:59:56.700 the climate,
00:59:57.920 but in describing
00:59:58.720 how the climate
00:59:59.560 responds
01:00:00.320 to those influences.
01:00:02.680 That's the big question,
01:00:04.420 and that's an order
01:00:05.680 of magnitude
01:00:06.220 harder job
01:00:07.280 than describing
01:00:08.460 the climate itself.
01:00:09.800 The third thing is,
01:00:11.960 we're looking
01:00:12.480 over timescales
01:00:13.640 of 100,
01:00:14.580 150 years,
01:00:16.320 and we have
01:00:17.060 terrible data
01:00:18.340 to describe
01:00:19.940 what happened
01:00:20.620 in the past.
01:00:22.260 Yes,
01:00:22.580 we have reasonable
01:00:23.460 confidence about
01:00:24.340 the average global
01:00:25.200 temperature,
01:00:26.160 but what goes on
01:00:27.080 in the oceans,
01:00:27.940 which is really
01:00:28.620 where climate happens,
01:00:30.220 the oceans are the
01:00:30.980 long-term component
01:00:31.980 of the system,
01:00:33.200 we have terrible data
01:00:34.520 until about
01:00:35.980 20 years ago
01:00:36.820 when we started
01:00:37.780 putting out floats
01:00:38.800 of various kinds.
01:00:39.580 Well,
01:00:39.980 how good is
01:00:40.720 the ocean data?
01:00:41.600 I mean,
01:00:41.780 the ocean's
01:00:42.220 pretty damn deep,
01:00:43.200 and it's not like
01:00:44.400 we can measure
01:00:45.060 everything that's
01:00:45.740 happening in the ocean.
01:00:46.860 I can't imagine
01:00:47.720 we understand
01:00:48.720 long-term current flows
01:00:50.700 from the depths
01:00:51.480 well enough
01:00:52.160 to be predicting
01:00:53.460 climate alteration
01:00:54.940 on the scale
01:00:55.500 of a few degrees.
01:00:56.560 That just strikes me
01:00:57.460 as unbelievably
01:00:59.100 preposterous.
01:01:00.960 Right.
01:01:01.280 Studies that have
01:01:02.120 attempted to reproduce
01:01:03.380 the warming
01:01:04.420 of the ocean
01:01:05.280 show that the ocean
01:01:07.100 was warming
01:01:07.780 at about
01:01:08.380 half the current
01:01:09.600 rate
01:01:09.900 even as the
01:01:11.340 little ice age
01:01:12.420 started to end.
01:01:14.220 And so
01:01:14.700 untangling
01:01:15.820 this long-term
01:01:16.900 natural variability
01:01:18.120 from the effect
01:01:19.400 of human influence,
01:01:20.260 which has only
01:01:20.820 really been
01:01:21.480 significant
01:01:22.400 for the last
01:01:23.480 70 or 80 years
01:01:25.140 or so,
01:01:25.660 is a very,
01:01:27.000 very difficult
01:01:27.620 problem,
01:01:28.720 maybe the central
01:01:29.740 problem in climate.
01:01:31.320 Okay.
01:01:31.520 Now you talked
01:01:33.060 about when you
01:01:33.600 were at BP,
01:01:34.480 you got somewhat
01:01:35.580 excited about the
01:01:36.460 possibility of biofuel.
01:01:37.900 We didn't really
01:01:38.420 continue down that
01:01:39.560 road.
01:01:40.940 What are your
01:01:42.720 thoughts on the
01:01:43.500 nuclear front,
01:01:44.320 let's say,
01:01:45.500 and did you see
01:01:47.240 developments there
01:01:47.980 that you regarded
01:01:48.780 as, like,
01:01:49.880 a lot of people
01:01:50.860 talk about modular
01:01:51.780 nuclear power,
01:01:52.680 for example.
01:01:53.080 Right.
01:01:53.840 So,
01:01:54.080 right.
01:01:55.440 So,
01:01:55.820 full disclosure,
01:01:56.620 first,
01:01:56.920 you know,
01:01:57.180 I began life
01:01:58.140 as a nuclear
01:01:58.660 physicist.
01:01:59.260 Right.
01:01:59.800 And so
01:02:00.280 the atom is my
01:02:01.380 friend.
01:02:02.640 I'm a scientist,
01:02:03.680 not an engineer.
01:02:04.800 I don't think I
01:02:05.440 could build a
01:02:06.100 credible nuclear
01:02:07.940 reactor,
01:02:08.560 but I certainly
01:02:09.160 understand how
01:02:10.440 they work in
01:02:11.100 great detail
01:02:11.960 and understand
01:02:12.680 the economics
01:02:13.300 and the business
01:02:14.000 and so on.
01:02:14.920 I think if the
01:02:16.100 world is serious
01:02:17.140 about reducing
01:02:18.380 carbon dioxide
01:02:19.740 emissions,
01:02:21.040 nuclear power
01:02:21.840 has to be a
01:02:22.740 big part of
01:02:24.260 the future.
01:02:26.480 Essentially,
01:02:27.320 zero emissions,
01:02:28.840 reasonably economic,
01:02:30.820 and a demonstrated
01:02:32.320 technology,
01:02:33.360 right?
01:02:33.900 Roughly 20%
01:02:34.980 of U.S.
01:02:35.520 electricity
01:02:36.020 comes from
01:02:37.060 fission.
01:02:38.180 80% of French
01:02:39.840 electricity
01:02:40.480 comes from
01:02:41.080 fission.
01:02:41.440 Maybe it's 75%
01:02:42.380 now.
01:02:43.000 So, you know,
01:02:43.620 we know how
01:02:44.300 to do this.
01:02:46.000 The problem
01:02:46.740 is that the
01:02:47.620 big ones,
01:02:48.440 particularly in
01:02:49.220 the U.S.,
01:02:49.640 the existing
01:02:50.260 power plants,
01:02:51.020 of which there
01:02:51.620 are about
01:02:52.680 90-something
01:02:53.540 now in
01:02:55.340 the U.S.,
01:02:56.460 are
01:02:57.640 very expensive.
01:03:02.200 You have to
01:03:02.640 put down a lot
01:03:03.480 of money at
01:03:04.120 the beginning,
01:03:05.780 $10,
01:03:06.300 $20 billion,
01:03:07.460 and then you
01:03:08.220 don't start to
01:03:08.960 pay it off
01:03:09.620 until 30 years,
01:03:11.500 hence when you
01:03:12.120 sell the
01:03:12.460 electricity that
01:03:13.260 you've been
01:03:14.160 making.
01:03:15.220 And so you
01:03:15.640 need a stable
01:03:16.560 and sensible
01:03:17.380 regulatory
01:03:18.040 environment for
01:03:19.660 these big
01:03:20.220 capital expenses.
01:03:21.820 Well, look,
01:03:22.920 I mean,
01:03:23.160 we were
01:03:23.400 building
01:03:23.720 nuclear power
01:03:24.960 plants,
01:03:25.780 you know,
01:03:26.160 60 years ago,
01:03:27.240 and so we
01:03:28.180 should be
01:03:28.540 better at it
01:03:29.180 now,
01:03:29.440 especially at
01:03:30.000 the modular
01:03:30.420 level.
01:03:30.940 So one of
01:03:31.360 the things
01:03:31.680 I'm curious
01:03:32.260 about,
01:03:32.680 well,
01:03:32.860 two,
01:03:33.140 I suppose,
01:03:33.640 is to
01:03:34.360 what degree
01:03:35.040 does insane
01:03:36.360 regulation make
01:03:37.880 nuclear power
01:03:38.960 unbelievably expensive?
01:03:40.520 And then the
01:03:41.160 second question
01:03:41.780 would be,
01:03:42.740 given that
01:03:43.340 insane regulation
01:03:44.360 does make
01:03:45.060 nuclear power
01:03:45.720 extremely expensive,
01:03:47.080 do you think
01:03:47.680 there's any
01:03:48.300 possibility at all,
01:03:49.600 practically speaking,
01:03:50.560 that that red
01:03:51.380 tape could be
01:03:52.220 reversed?
01:03:52.800 I mean,
01:03:53.280 Germany just
01:03:53.860 built an LNG
01:03:54.760 port in like
01:03:55.620 five months,
01:03:56.460 so, you know,
01:03:57.220 it's obvious we
01:03:58.100 can get our act
01:03:58.740 together when we
01:03:59.400 need to.
01:03:59.520 We can do this.
01:04:00.520 Yeah, yeah.
01:04:01.040 I think, you
01:04:02.240 know, regulation
01:04:03.020 has been a
01:04:04.960 big part of why
01:04:06.320 big nuclear is
01:04:07.600 expensive.
01:04:09.320 I'm all for
01:04:10.380 making sure these
01:04:11.640 things are safe.
01:04:12.700 We have to do
01:04:13.440 that.
01:04:13.760 That's the
01:04:14.140 primary consideration,
01:04:15.420 and the industry
01:04:16.120 believes that as
01:04:17.280 well.
01:04:17.940 The problem is
01:04:19.200 that in the
01:04:19.840 U.S.,
01:04:20.560 we have built
01:04:21.940 every reactor
01:04:23.080 custom built.
01:04:24.760 They're all
01:04:25.220 different, right?
01:04:26.520 Even if the
01:04:27.380 names are more
01:04:28.120 or less the
01:04:28.580 same, in detail,
01:04:29.880 they're different.
01:04:30.780 The hope is,
01:04:31.940 with small
01:04:32.420 modular reactors,
01:04:33.780 is to focus
01:04:34.700 the regulation so
01:04:36.160 that you can get
01:04:36.920 one design
01:04:37.860 approved, and
01:04:39.420 then you can
01:04:39.840 make a hundred
01:04:40.420 of them.
01:04:41.100 Right.
01:04:41.380 And ship
01:04:42.280 them around the
01:04:42.900 country.
01:04:43.360 You build
01:04:43.700 them in a
01:04:44.040 factory, and
01:04:44.640 you put them
01:04:44.980 on a flatbed
01:04:45.740 rail car and
01:04:47.620 bring them to
01:04:48.440 the site.
01:04:49.560 It would
01:04:50.140 also ease
01:04:50.860 the economics
01:04:51.580 because you
01:04:52.780 pay for the
01:04:53.280 first one, and
01:04:54.360 then you use the
01:04:55.000 cash flow from
01:04:55.880 it to finance
01:04:57.000 the second one
01:04:57.680 and the third
01:04:58.100 one and so
01:04:58.660 on at a
01:04:59.440 site.
01:04:59.840 Yeah, well,
01:05:00.240 I read that
01:05:00.760 Rolls-Royce is
01:05:01.660 doing that.
01:05:02.340 They've got a
01:05:02.860 proposal.
01:05:03.280 So Rolls-Royce is
01:05:04.080 doing that.
01:05:05.020 Right.
01:05:05.660 So in the U.S.,
01:05:07.240 there are two
01:05:07.960 companies, I
01:05:08.820 remember the name
01:05:09.640 of one of them,
01:05:10.160 called NewScale,
01:05:11.240 and I think they
01:05:12.140 hope to have the
01:05:13.400 first one in the
01:05:14.440 ground within the
01:05:15.980 next five or six
01:05:16.880 years.
01:05:18.720 You know, you've
01:05:19.480 got to come down
01:05:20.220 the learning curve.
01:05:21.040 Right now, the
01:05:21.660 costs are more
01:05:22.640 expensive than big
01:05:23.800 nuclear per
01:05:24.600 kilowatt hour
01:05:25.400 produced, but as
01:05:27.240 they come down
01:05:27.780 the learning curve
01:05:28.420 and build more
01:05:29.140 of these and so
01:05:29.940 on, the costs
01:05:31.560 should come down.
01:05:33.000 They'll still be
01:05:33.600 more expensive
01:05:34.180 than gas, for
01:05:36.000 example, to make
01:05:36.840 electricity, but at
01:05:38.360 least you won't
01:05:39.060 have the CO2
01:05:40.020 issues.
01:05:41.360 The waste issue,
01:05:42.360 which people talk
01:05:43.120 about also with
01:05:43.980 respect to
01:05:44.540 nuclear, is a
01:05:45.700 technically solved
01:05:46.880 problem.
01:05:47.680 Okay, how?
01:05:48.200 How is it solved?
01:05:51.540 Monitored
01:05:52.020 retrievable
01:05:53.660 storage.
01:05:54.720 You put it
01:05:55.360 underground, you
01:05:56.460 monitor it, the
01:05:57.840 waste decays, the
01:05:59.980 heat from the
01:06:01.400 waste decays.
01:06:02.960 After a hundred
01:06:03.760 years, it's almost
01:06:06.060 all gone, and then
01:06:07.360 you can pull it
01:06:07.920 back out if you
01:06:08.680 needed the energy
01:06:09.520 in it.
01:06:09.920 You know, we only
01:06:10.440 burn about 5% of
01:06:12.260 the uranium in the
01:06:13.760 waste, that's
01:06:15.700 there in the
01:06:16.320 waste.
01:06:17.800 And so, it's
01:06:18.620 soluble.
01:06:19.780 So, okay, I
01:06:21.300 started looking into
01:06:22.240 the sorts of
01:06:22.800 things we're
01:06:23.200 talking about
01:06:23.780 about 10 years
01:06:24.620 ago, and maybe
01:06:25.980 15 years ago.
01:06:26.960 Okay, so one of
01:06:27.500 the things that
01:06:28.040 really shocked me,
01:06:29.640 well, there are
01:06:30.100 two things.
01:06:30.640 The first was that
01:06:31.420 when I started
01:06:31.960 looking into the
01:06:32.820 energy and
01:06:33.320 environment nexus
01:06:34.120 in detail, I got
01:06:35.600 more optimistic
01:06:36.440 rather than less.
01:06:38.120 And I thought,
01:06:38.780 oh my God,
01:06:39.380 things are a lot
01:06:40.180 better than I
01:06:40.760 thought they were.
01:06:41.920 People are getting
01:06:42.500 richer at a
01:06:43.180 stunning rate.
01:06:44.140 It looks like
01:06:44.600 there's a positive
01:06:45.260 relationship between
01:06:46.240 population growth and
01:06:47.360 wealth.
01:06:48.040 The planet is
01:06:48.780 cleaner and better
01:06:49.480 off in many ways
01:06:50.380 than it's been for
01:06:51.840 a very long time.
01:06:53.180 But there's real
01:06:53.760 reasons for optimism.
01:06:55.920 And then I also,
01:06:57.980 so that was shocking,
01:06:58.880 then I also learned,
01:06:59.800 and this was also
01:07:00.480 shocking, that there's
01:07:02.720 a very positive
01:07:03.600 relationship between
01:07:04.900 GDP and
01:07:06.820 environmental, let's
01:07:08.180 call it, awareness
01:07:08.820 and concern.
01:07:09.500 So it looks like
01:07:10.360 once you get
01:07:10.880 people up to
01:07:11.600 about the point
01:07:12.260 where in their
01:07:13.600 country the average
01:07:14.560 GDP is $5,000
01:07:15.960 per person, people
01:07:17.660 can stop scrabbling
01:07:19.340 around in the dirt
01:07:20.180 and burning
01:07:20.720 everything and
01:07:21.400 eating everything
01:07:22.040 in sight and they
01:07:22.760 can start to think
01:07:23.520 about what sort of
01:07:24.540 environment they'd
01:07:25.720 like to have for
01:07:26.360 their children and
01:07:27.020 grandchildren.
01:07:27.280 The technical name
01:07:28.960 is the Kuznets
01:07:29.720 curve, which you
01:07:30.400 probably have.
01:07:31.100 Right, right,
01:07:31.600 right, right.
01:07:32.360 And so then I
01:07:33.880 thought, oh well,
01:07:34.500 isn't this
01:07:34.920 interesting?
01:07:35.640 What this should
01:07:36.360 mean is that if
01:07:37.240 we wanted to, we
01:07:38.960 could work really
01:07:39.660 hard internationally
01:07:40.600 to make energy
01:07:41.640 cheap and we
01:07:42.660 could pull billions
01:07:43.800 of people, the
01:07:44.560 remaining people in
01:07:45.700 the world, out of
01:07:46.640 abject poverty and
01:07:48.300 the consequence of
01:07:49.160 that would be that
01:07:50.320 they would start to
01:07:51.140 become locally
01:07:52.020 concerned about
01:07:52.880 environmental
01:07:53.580 maintainability and
01:07:55.340 sustainability and
01:07:56.720 then everyone would
01:07:57.400 have enough to eat
01:07:58.220 and they'd all be
01:07:58.880 educated plus the
01:07:59.940 planet would be
01:08:00.560 better off and
01:08:01.180 then the question
01:08:01.920 was, okay, and
01:08:03.060 here's a question
01:08:04.260 that we can really
01:08:04.900 delve into, why the
01:08:06.280 hell aren't we
01:08:06.960 doing this?
01:08:07.640 It's like instead
01:08:08.480 we're buying this
01:08:09.380 crazy apocalyptic
01:08:10.780 narrative that's
01:08:12.100 making the planet
01:08:12.860 worse, that's
01:08:13.560 driving energy costs
01:08:14.700 up, that's
01:08:15.500 destabilizing us
01:08:16.760 sociopolitically,
01:08:18.260 when as far as I
01:08:19.840 can tell the pathway
01:08:20.800 forward to abundance
01:08:22.400 and sustainability is
01:08:24.800 pretty damn obvious
01:08:26.000 and also not
01:08:27.220 particularly expensive.
01:08:28.860 So what the hell's
01:08:30.260 going on?
01:08:31.740 So I will quote two
01:08:34.360 folks relevant to this.
01:08:36.060 One is H.L.
01:08:37.740 Mencken, who was
01:08:39.460 a journalist writing
01:08:40.580 in the early part
01:08:42.120 of the 20th century
01:08:42.980 in the U.S., very
01:08:45.000 astute, very
01:08:46.340 acerbic, and he's
01:08:47.880 got a line in one
01:08:48.680 of his books, which
01:08:49.420 I'll try to
01:08:50.060 reproduce, the
01:08:51.340 purpose of
01:08:52.040 practical politics
01:08:53.340 is to keep the
01:08:54.900 electorate alarmed
01:08:56.180 by a series of
01:08:57.680 mostly imaginary
01:08:58.860 hobgoblins so
01:09:00.320 that they can be
01:09:01.060 clamoring to be
01:09:02.340 led to safety.
01:09:03.460 And you see the
01:09:05.440 politicians grabbing
01:09:06.560 on to these issues,
01:09:07.820 whether it's the
01:09:08.640 climate, whether
01:09:09.720 it's immigration,
01:09:11.140 they do it on both
01:09:12.160 sides, right, all
01:09:13.200 sides, the missile
01:09:13.900 gap in the 60s.
01:09:15.860 You know, whatever
01:09:16.480 the truth was behind
01:09:17.760 these, the politicians
01:09:19.120 amp it up in order
01:09:21.000 to get the electorate
01:09:22.160 to actually do
01:09:23.540 something, right?
01:09:24.880 So that's one quote.
01:09:26.820 The second is, there
01:09:28.160 was this guy named
01:09:28.940 Anthony Downs, who
01:09:30.960 was an economist
01:09:31.980 working in the
01:09:33.860 60s through the
01:09:35.060 90s or 2000s.
01:09:36.960 He was first at
01:09:38.500 UCLA and then at
01:09:39.960 Brookings, so he
01:09:40.720 was quite on the
01:09:41.900 left.
01:09:42.560 Had a number of
01:09:44.120 insights to his
01:09:45.800 credit, but one of
01:09:47.180 them was what he
01:09:48.240 calls the issue
01:09:48.980 attention cycle,
01:09:50.940 namely some issue,
01:09:52.560 whether it's
01:09:53.060 pesticides or climate,
01:09:55.380 bubbles among the
01:09:56.380 experts for a while.
01:09:58.280 Nobody pays much
01:09:59.140 attention to it.
01:09:59.940 It suddenly bursts
01:10:01.540 into the public
01:10:02.960 consciousness, and
01:10:05.180 everybody gets both
01:10:06.960 alarmed but also
01:10:08.380 enthusiastic about the
01:10:10.640 ease with which
01:10:11.460 they're going to
01:10:11.920 solve it.
01:10:12.620 Then everybody
01:10:13.360 discovers, boy, this
01:10:14.880 is going to be really
01:10:15.940 hard to solve, and
01:10:17.560 eventually the issue
01:10:18.680 fades with time or
01:10:21.040 morphs into something
01:10:22.380 else.
01:10:22.960 And I think we are
01:10:24.340 at kind of that
01:10:25.240 third phase now with
01:10:27.100 the climate where
01:10:28.120 everybody is realizing
01:10:28.940 really realizing just
01:10:30.460 how hard, and I
01:10:32.000 would say almost
01:10:32.660 impossible, it's
01:10:33.920 going to be to
01:10:34.860 reduce emissions.
01:10:36.200 Certainly net zero
01:10:37.300 by the end of the
01:10:38.180 century looks like
01:10:39.740 it's just not going
01:10:40.620 to happen at all.
01:10:41.920 And so I think
01:10:43.020 that's what's going
01:10:43.800 on.
01:10:43.960 Well, I'm going to
01:10:45.480 add some psychological
01:10:46.720 layering to that, and
01:10:47.800 you can tell me what
01:10:48.380 you think of this.
01:10:48.920 Well, so first of all,
01:10:50.620 people are tilted
01:10:51.820 towards attention paid
01:10:54.160 to negative events.
01:10:56.040 And so, for example,
01:10:57.980 people are much more
01:10:59.080 hurt by a loss of
01:11:00.340 $5 than they are made
01:11:01.980 happy by a gain of
01:11:03.120 $5.
01:11:03.720 So we're quite
01:11:04.260 loss-sensitive.
01:11:05.320 Now, I think the
01:11:06.700 reason we're loss-sensitive
01:11:08.220 is that, well, you can
01:11:09.860 only be so happy, but
01:11:11.220 you can be 100% dead.
01:11:14.500 And so being more
01:11:15.820 sensitive to threat
01:11:17.180 in terms of magnitude
01:11:19.260 of response per unit
01:11:20.880 of reinforcement makes
01:11:22.140 sense given that we're
01:11:23.240 finite and vulnerable.
01:11:24.440 And then we also have
01:11:25.760 the problem that any
01:11:27.940 given threat, almost
01:11:30.320 any given threat, could
01:11:31.720 in principle be
01:11:33.340 personally and socially
01:11:34.840 apocalyptic.
01:11:36.020 So, for example, it
01:11:38.780 could be the case that
01:11:40.580 the aches and pains
01:11:42.340 that you're experiencing
01:11:43.640 today are the ground
01:11:45.860 zero for an epidemic
01:11:47.080 that'll kill one-third
01:11:48.460 of the United States,
01:11:49.720 right?
01:11:50.060 I mean, it's very
01:11:50.780 unlikely, but it
01:11:51.620 happened with the
01:11:52.260 Black Death.
01:11:53.140 And, I mean, the
01:11:54.260 possibility of an
01:11:56.020 apocalyptic outcome
01:11:56.980 is always non-zero.
01:11:58.780 And, in fact, in
01:11:59.580 personal life, it's
01:12:00.680 always 100%, because
01:12:02.100 the worst thing that
01:12:03.040 could possibly happen
01:12:04.020 to you will for sure
01:12:05.600 happen to you.
01:12:06.840 And so I think...
01:12:07.140 Will eventually
01:12:07.620 happen.
01:12:08.020 Well, right.
01:12:08.520 And so I think one
01:12:09.300 of our problems is
01:12:10.320 that because we're
01:12:11.620 sensitive to negative
01:12:12.620 information,
01:12:13.640 and because there's
01:12:14.380 always a potential
01:12:15.280 apocalypse bubbling
01:12:17.220 away in the background,
01:12:18.460 it's very hard for us
01:12:20.160 to distinguish
01:12:21.140 collectively between
01:12:22.520 threats that are
01:12:23.380 valid apocalyptically
01:12:25.100 and those that aren't.
01:12:26.460 And then we tend to
01:12:27.340 err on the side of
01:12:28.520 panic, let's say.
01:12:30.240 And that wasn't such
01:12:31.420 a bad thing when
01:12:33.060 our responses weren't
01:12:35.700 as large as the
01:12:36.760 potential problems.
01:12:37.780 Because now what
01:12:38.700 happens is that if we
01:12:39.780 stampede in one
01:12:40.860 direction, we're so
01:12:42.380 powerful that the
01:12:43.280 bloody stampede can
01:12:44.360 be much worse than
01:12:45.220 the problem.
01:12:46.340 Yeah, absolutely.
01:12:47.780 You know, Bill
01:12:48.380 Nordhaus won a Nobel
01:12:50.020 Prize in economics in
01:12:51.320 2018, I think, for one
01:12:54.100 of the things he won
01:12:54.860 it for was the
01:12:56.060 realization that there's
01:12:57.340 an optimal way in
01:12:59.360 which to decarbonize.
01:13:01.240 If you do it too
01:13:02.380 rapidly, it's too
01:13:03.840 disruptive, and you
01:13:05.360 deploy immature
01:13:06.320 technology.
01:13:07.180 You do it too
01:13:08.360 slowly, carbon dioxide
01:13:09.800 builds up and
01:13:10.660 promotes a greater
01:13:12.000 risk.
01:13:12.680 So I think people
01:13:13.820 need this kind of
01:13:15.120 multi-decade, if not
01:13:17.120 century, perspective
01:13:18.520 on making these
01:13:20.400 changes, but also
01:13:21.740 going back in time
01:13:23.280 the realization that
01:13:24.540 we have managed
01:13:25.940 much worse threats
01:13:28.140 and crises.
01:13:29.640 And as Bjorn
01:13:31.520 Lomborg says, we
01:13:32.420 should cool it a
01:13:33.500 bit.
01:13:34.200 Relax, think it
01:13:35.480 through, and do
01:13:37.080 it in a deliberate
01:13:37.920 manner.
01:13:38.220 Yeah, well, we're
01:13:38.840 also not that good,
01:13:41.580 particularly now, at
01:13:43.500 adopting, say, a
01:13:45.080 few centuries-long
01:13:46.200 time frame.
01:13:46.900 And it's not
01:13:47.280 surprising, because we
01:13:48.100 don't live that long.
01:13:49.100 But, I mean, if you
01:13:50.000 look at medieval
01:13:51.080 Europe, there was the
01:13:53.140 capacity for sustained
01:13:54.420 imagination.
01:13:55.280 So a lot of the
01:13:55.860 great cathedrals, which
01:13:57.040 were amazing engineering
01:13:58.240 projects for their
01:13:59.220 time, were construed
01:14:01.040 over multiple
01:14:02.740 centuries.
01:14:03.740 People who started
01:14:04.500 them knew they
01:14:05.000 wouldn't finish
01:14:05.520 them.
01:14:05.780 So there was that
01:14:06.800 sense of long-term
01:14:09.260 continuity.
01:14:10.080 But maybe one of the
01:14:11.400 byproducts of a very
01:14:12.860 efficient and hyper-productive
01:14:14.640 capitalist society is
01:14:16.280 that we tend to have a
01:14:18.300 shorter time frame for
01:14:19.460 expectation of
01:14:20.380 results.
01:14:21.600 You know, and there's
01:14:22.020 obviously benefits to
01:14:23.180 that, right?
01:14:23.680 Because why the hell not
01:14:24.940 fix the problem in the
01:14:25.980 next quarter if you
01:14:26.960 can?
01:14:27.620 But there's going to be
01:14:28.340 some issues that
01:14:29.420 require a time scale of
01:14:31.240 centuries.
01:14:32.280 I mean, I think the
01:14:32.860 Biden administration...
01:14:33.640 Go ahead.
01:14:35.000 No, we have, you
01:14:37.440 know, been seduced
01:14:38.920 perhaps by the
01:14:40.180 digital revolution
01:14:41.600 where the technologies
01:14:43.480 change every couple
01:14:44.940 years, right?
01:14:45.680 I mean, you know, if
01:14:46.680 you go back a decade
01:14:47.820 or two, we were using
01:14:49.060 eight-track tapes and
01:14:50.820 so on, and now, of
01:14:51.800 course, it's all MP3s
01:14:54.060 or MP4s or whatever.
01:14:56.540 Energy is very
01:14:57.620 different.
01:14:58.880 The systems need to
01:15:00.220 work as a system.
01:15:01.360 The facilities last
01:15:04.020 decades, and we demand
01:15:06.600 high reliability.
01:15:08.580 So energy changes on
01:15:10.780 multi-decade timescales.
01:15:12.740 It doesn't change every
01:15:14.480 year or two.
01:15:15.420 And people have, they
01:15:17.060 have come to expect that
01:15:18.740 things can change
01:15:19.480 rapidly when, in fact,
01:15:21.020 there are good physical
01:15:21.920 and economic reasons why
01:15:23.600 energy cannot change.
01:15:25.580 Right, well, so that's a
01:15:26.920 complex cognitive problem
01:15:28.400 too, right?
01:15:28.940 To be able to
01:15:29.500 distinguish between
01:15:30.520 those problems that are
01:15:31.680 amenable to rapid
01:15:32.720 solution and those
01:15:34.160 problems that aren't,
01:15:35.260 that's not a trivial
01:15:36.300 cognitive exercise.
01:15:37.700 It's not obvious a
01:15:38.740 primary, especially if
01:15:39.640 you don't have
01:15:40.020 specialized knowledge.
01:15:42.260 Right, or if you
01:15:43.500 don't have experience,
01:15:44.540 I mean, not to knock
01:15:45.700 the younger generation,
01:15:46.840 I have three kids
01:15:47.520 myself, and, you
01:15:48.500 know, they're all
01:15:49.920 wonderful people.
01:15:50.720 But if you're a 22-year-old
01:15:53.380 just having graduated
01:15:54.580 from undergraduate
01:15:56.480 education, you don't
01:15:58.920 have the perspective.
01:16:00.200 I certainly didn't.
01:16:02.220 And getting this
01:16:03.220 perspective through
01:16:04.200 life experience, through
01:16:05.720 reading more and
01:16:06.760 understanding more about
01:16:08.220 the world, gives you a
01:16:09.960 different view of these
01:16:11.440 things.
01:16:11.940 Some people say that,
01:16:13.060 you know, you and I
01:16:13.940 will not be around to
01:16:15.360 see the worst
01:16:16.060 consequences of climate
01:16:17.840 change.
01:16:18.460 But we have seen the
01:16:20.620 world navigate far more
01:16:22.280 difficult problems.
01:16:23.040 Yes, yes.
01:16:23.820 And to do it
01:16:24.680 successfully, not
01:16:26.160 without pain and
01:16:28.000 turmoil, but we will
01:16:30.700 persist as a species.
01:16:32.060 Well, yes, and I mean,
01:16:33.000 I would say that things
01:16:34.440 have turned out quite a
01:16:35.840 lot better than I
01:16:37.780 presumed they would
01:16:38.960 when I was young.
01:16:40.620 I mean, and how old
01:16:41.980 are you, Dr.
01:16:42.840 Coonan?
01:16:43.560 I'm 71.
01:16:44.780 Okay, so you're about,
01:16:45.820 you're 11 years older
01:16:46.900 than me.
01:16:47.480 So, you know, both of
01:16:49.420 us grew up in the
01:16:50.280 Cold War era, and I
01:16:51.940 would say our apocalypse
01:16:53.200 was probably nuclear.
01:16:55.500 And it seems to me that
01:16:56.840 we had more reason to
01:16:58.460 assume that the nuclear
01:16:59.580 threat was a genuine
01:17:00.960 apocalyptic nightmare
01:17:02.140 than the climate
01:17:03.900 apocalypse have now,
01:17:05.440 given what happened in
01:17:06.580 the Cuban Missile Crisis
01:17:07.640 and then again in the
01:17:08.420 1980s.
01:17:09.060 We were damn close a
01:17:10.160 couple of times, and we
01:17:11.260 might be on the
01:17:11.900 threshold now with
01:17:12.800 regards to this war with
01:17:13.960 Russia.
01:17:14.400 So who the hell knows?
01:17:15.760 Right.
01:17:15.940 But it was certainly
01:17:18.040 the case that among
01:17:18.920 people in my
01:17:21.340 generation, there were
01:17:22.920 a substantial number
01:17:24.120 of young people who
01:17:25.500 were seriously affected
01:17:27.340 enough psychologically
01:17:28.440 by the ever-present
01:17:30.020 threat of nuclear war,
01:17:31.260 let's say, to be very
01:17:32.380 demoralized and
01:17:33.760 disenchanted about the
01:17:34.880 future.
01:17:35.380 To think, well, why
01:17:36.180 the hell bother?
01:17:37.000 Because the probability
01:17:37.940 we're going to end up
01:17:38.740 in a nuclear winter is
01:17:39.860 so high that it's just
01:17:41.400 pointless to do
01:17:42.200 anything.
01:17:42.540 And then there was
01:17:43.860 the usual murmurings
01:17:45.560 in the background about
01:17:46.400 overpopulation and so
01:17:47.720 forth and coming
01:17:48.720 scarcity and all of
01:17:50.380 that.
01:17:50.820 And then really what's
01:17:52.320 happened since then is
01:17:54.180 that pretty much
01:17:56.060 everything globally has
01:17:57.340 got way better than
01:17:58.380 anybody could have
01:17:59.100 possibly imagined.
01:18:00.860 Right?
01:18:01.180 Absolutely.
01:18:01.960 Yeah, yeah.
01:18:02.560 And in very surprising
01:18:03.920 ways.
01:18:04.580 So not only is the
01:18:05.520 planet greener, but
01:18:06.520 it's much better fed.
01:18:07.660 And obesity is a way
01:18:08.720 bigger problem than
01:18:09.680 starvation.
01:18:10.320 And starvation almost
01:18:12.380 never occurs except for
01:18:13.560 political reasons.
01:18:14.680 And I mean, we're
01:18:15.700 Distribution issues.
01:18:16.700 Yeah, exactly.
01:18:17.460 Exactly.
01:18:18.080 And so, you know, all
01:18:19.580 things.
01:18:19.960 Literacy has gone up,
01:18:21.300 communications, mobility,
01:18:23.600 health, longevity.
01:18:25.320 I mean, as I said, over
01:18:26.740 120 years, the world has
01:18:28.240 improved like it has
01:18:29.360 never improved before.
01:18:32.820 Yeah.
01:18:33.180 So then we have, and I
01:18:35.020 mean, it's not like we're
01:18:35.960 getting stupider.
01:18:36.680 And I'm a bit concerned
01:18:38.320 on the AI front, you
01:18:39.820 know, but so far, the
01:18:42.040 additional computational
01:18:43.480 resources we've been able
01:18:44.800 to put at our disposal have
01:18:46.060 been used in a fairly
01:18:47.000 intelligent way.
01:18:47.960 I mean, China is kind of
01:18:49.160 worrisome on the
01:18:49.860 totalitarian front and
01:18:51.260 the nexus.
01:18:52.460 But it isn't obvious to
01:18:53.820 me that China is going to
01:18:54.800 be particularly successful
01:18:56.120 in their totalitarian
01:18:57.280 ambitions.
01:18:58.120 The Chinese themselves
01:18:59.240 seem to be getting pretty
01:19:00.400 damn sick of having the
01:19:01.560 state interfere with
01:19:02.400 absolutely everything they
01:19:03.680 do every second of their
01:19:04.920 lives.
01:19:05.300 So I could easily see
01:19:07.520 China undergoing a
01:19:08.720 collapse that's something
01:19:09.880 akin to what happened to
01:19:11.000 the Soviet Union in
01:19:12.060 1989.
01:19:13.480 That system is just too
01:19:14.660 damn unwieldy.
01:19:15.860 And, you know, you see
01:19:17.720 these people in Iran
01:19:19.140 clamoring away for
01:19:20.440 freedom.
01:19:21.000 And so, you know, maybe
01:19:22.760 we'll see a positive
01:19:23.580 development on that front.
01:19:24.860 That might be nice.
01:19:25.840 And so I just don't see
01:19:27.460 any, okay, first of all,
01:19:28.920 I don't see any reason for
01:19:30.060 an apocalyptic outlook.
01:19:31.300 Look, we could make
01:19:32.460 things a hell of a lot
01:19:33.240 better than they are now.
01:19:34.700 Very, very.
01:19:36.380 Absolutely.
01:19:37.180 Now, who do you see
01:19:38.420 operating at the
01:19:39.440 international level on
01:19:40.680 the leadership front that
01:19:42.560 you regard as, or do you
01:19:44.340 see anyone, that you
01:19:45.540 regard as a credible
01:19:46.780 advocate for, like, a
01:19:50.120 sensible nexus of
01:19:51.860 environment and energy
01:19:52.980 policies?
01:19:54.540 You know, it's very
01:19:56.300 tough to find that
01:19:57.380 because if you speak out
01:19:59.700 against the prevailing
01:20:01.120 catastrophe narrative,
01:20:04.260 you get shouted down
01:20:05.760 and you get no
01:20:07.640 traction at all.
01:20:09.000 But what I do think
01:20:10.500 is that, again, there
01:20:12.560 are techno-economic
01:20:13.940 realities that will
01:20:16.260 eventually cause the
01:20:18.480 system to do the
01:20:19.720 right thing.
01:20:20.520 I talk in private to
01:20:22.340 leaders of energy
01:20:23.180 companies, to
01:20:24.240 politicians, finance
01:20:26.580 folks, and I think if
01:20:29.180 you and I were having
01:20:30.380 that conversation with
01:20:31.540 them in private, there
01:20:33.640 wouldn't be too much
01:20:34.440 disagreement.
01:20:36.360 But many of these
01:20:37.860 leaders feel captive or
01:20:40.580 beholden, not to
01:20:42.120 shareholders, but to
01:20:43.280 stakeholders, and they
01:20:45.520 dare not say anything
01:20:47.680 that is off the
01:20:50.080 narrative.
01:20:50.520 A lot of that's just
01:20:51.760 straight outright
01:20:52.760 cowardice in my
01:20:53.620 explanation.
01:20:53.720 I mean, you wrote this
01:20:58.880 book, Unsettled, and
01:20:59.800 people went after you,
01:21:00.800 but look at you.
01:21:01.500 You're alive.
01:21:02.260 You seem to be
01:21:02.920 thriving.
01:21:03.680 Your book was quite
01:21:04.500 successful.
01:21:05.360 I mean, how did you
01:21:06.460 escape the apocalyptic
01:21:09.180 consequences of cancel
01:21:10.620 culture?
01:21:11.540 How did you manage that?
01:21:14.060 I think one of the
01:21:16.880 foundations of the book
01:21:19.660 or one of the
01:21:20.180 principles when I wrote
01:21:21.260 it is that I would
01:21:22.580 only use material that
01:21:24.660 was out of the IPCC
01:21:26.160 reports or the quality
01:21:28.040 research literature or
01:21:29.820 the primary data
01:21:30.860 itself.
01:21:31.920 In other words, I
01:21:32.760 wasn't making anything
01:21:33.820 up.
01:21:34.260 It's all traceable back
01:21:35.860 to those gold standard
01:21:38.140 sources.
01:21:39.320 And so people can
01:21:40.460 accuse me, as they have,
01:21:41.660 of cherry picking or
01:21:43.340 not telling the whole
01:21:44.300 story.
01:21:45.200 Of course, I have
01:21:45.760 responses to all of
01:21:47.000 that.
01:21:47.680 But by and large, they
01:21:49.400 have a very hard time
01:21:50.740 criticizing what I've
01:21:52.280 written.
01:21:53.360 They can criticize me,
01:21:54.760 show for the oil
01:21:55.520 industry, not a climate
01:21:57.720 scientist, a denier,
01:22:00.020 et cetera, et cetera.
01:22:01.440 But by and large, I've
01:22:04.320 only gotten very
01:22:05.140 positive reactions from
01:22:07.200 other people who've
01:22:08.120 actually read the book.
01:22:09.800 I mean, I can tell you
01:22:10.680 stories about some of
01:22:12.100 the nonsense criticisms
01:22:13.380 that are involved at me.
01:22:14.700 But I mean, you've been
01:22:15.860 able to do this and,
01:22:17.380 you know, you haven't
01:22:18.720 been like hung and drawn
01:22:20.420 and quartered by the
01:22:21.460 horrible mob.
01:22:22.360 I know that being mobbed
01:22:24.040 can be very unpleasant.
01:22:25.200 And I know many people
01:22:27.040 who've been canceled.
01:22:28.180 And it's a life-changing
01:22:29.640 experience.
01:22:30.380 So I'm not trying to
01:22:31.140 minimize that.
01:22:31.880 But you'd hope that there
01:22:33.280 would be a modicum of
01:22:34.840 courage on the political
01:22:35.800 front so that some people
01:22:37.080 could come out and say,
01:22:38.040 well, you know, we don't
01:22:38.880 really need to go down
01:22:39.840 this idiot limits to
01:22:41.520 growth route that we've
01:22:43.380 been pursuing expensively
01:22:45.540 and counterproductively for
01:22:46.740 60 years.
01:22:47.420 We could just do what we
01:22:49.020 could to make energy more
01:22:50.160 abundant and cleaner and
01:22:51.480 cheaper for poor people.
01:22:52.760 And we could raise their
01:22:54.340 sites to the future.
01:22:57.200 And as the measures that
01:22:59.920 governments are implementing
01:23:01.520 to try to get to that
01:23:03.500 unattainable future, whether
01:23:06.020 it's bans on internal
01:23:07.280 combustion engines or
01:23:09.120 increased renewables that are
01:23:10.740 going to make the grid
01:23:11.460 expensive and unreliable,
01:23:13.060 eventually people will be
01:23:16.860 impacted directly and
01:23:19.080 they'll be mad because it's
01:23:21.160 not being done in a
01:23:22.160 graceful or thoughtful way.
01:23:23.740 And I think people will
01:23:24.660 then say, why are we doing
01:23:25.940 all this again?
01:23:27.600 You know, the U.S.
01:23:28.660 is only 13% of global
01:23:30.740 emissions.
01:23:32.160 And if the U.S.
01:23:32.840 went to zero emissions
01:23:34.300 tomorrow, it would be
01:23:36.900 negated by a decade's worth
01:23:38.840 of growth in the rest of the
01:23:40.540 world.
01:23:41.680 And so, you know, the best
01:23:43.580 thing the U.S. can do is
01:23:44.600 develop technologies, right,
01:23:46.460 to try to get there and not
01:23:48.480 make massive changes itself.
01:23:50.660 Well, it's also the case that
01:23:52.080 the U.S. did lower its
01:23:53.520 carbon output by a
01:23:54.620 substantial amount.
01:23:55.440 And the reason for that was
01:23:56.440 fracking, which is not
01:23:57.880 something that any of the
01:23:58.920 environmental apocalypse
01:23:59.960 would have predicted.
01:24:01.260 In fact, quite the
01:24:01.940 contrary.
01:24:02.300 That's the major reason, the
01:24:05.420 substitution of gas for coal.
01:24:07.360 But another reason is that
01:24:08.820 the renewables have grown.
01:24:10.540 In electricity generation
01:24:11.940 in the U.S.
01:24:12.840 I don't know the exact
01:24:14.120 number now, but wind is
01:24:15.340 something like 13% of U.S.
01:24:17.800 electricity generation.
01:24:19.420 It's got reliability issues.
01:24:21.040 It's got land issues.
01:24:22.220 It's got materials issues.
01:24:23.780 But that's another reason
01:24:25.640 emissions have come down
01:24:26.680 somewhat.
01:24:28.000 Right.
01:24:28.640 So you're, so all things
01:24:30.860 considered, you've remained
01:24:32.580 fundamentally optimistic.
01:24:33.880 You think that's a
01:24:34.620 temperamental characteristic,
01:24:35.740 or do you think that was
01:24:36.900 driven by your exploration
01:24:39.860 of the on-the-ground
01:24:40.940 realities?
01:24:41.660 And then I want to talk to
01:24:42.860 you, too, about, you know,
01:24:43.940 you said you've been accused
01:24:45.020 of not being a climate
01:24:46.360 scientist.
01:24:46.960 And first of all, I don't
01:24:48.300 think there's such a thing
01:24:49.460 as a climate scientist,
01:24:51.380 right?
01:24:51.620 I mean, that's not a
01:24:53.020 category that a scientist
01:24:54.380 falls into.
01:24:55.600 Your basic training was in
01:24:57.800 physics, so maybe we'll
01:24:59.280 return to that just for a
01:25:00.420 moment.
01:25:01.040 What makes you a credible
01:25:03.060 observer on that front?
01:25:04.320 But let's deal with the
01:25:05.420 first issue first.
01:25:07.400 You know, I think
01:25:08.580 temperamentally I'm
01:25:10.020 optimistic.
01:25:11.760 My mother, who's still
01:25:13.400 with us at age 91,
01:25:16.240 was the youngest by about
01:25:19.100 15 years of four
01:25:21.740 children.
01:25:23.320 And she grew up and
01:25:25.080 still has incredible
01:25:26.360 optimism about things.
01:25:28.360 So I think it's partly in my
01:25:30.400 psychological DNA.
01:25:32.200 But, you know, it's also
01:25:34.760 I'm very quantitative.
01:25:37.040 I do numbers.
01:25:38.520 And when you look at the
01:25:40.380 numbers, which are, you
01:25:42.480 know, somebody once said,
01:25:43.740 I think it was Kelvin or
01:25:45.580 Rutherford, unless you can
01:25:47.880 express it in numbers,
01:25:48.820 your knowledge is of the
01:25:49.780 most meager kind.
01:25:51.760 And so most people don't do
01:25:54.000 that, but I do.
01:25:54.900 And I've dug into the
01:25:55.880 climate and energy story.
01:25:57.200 And when you look at the
01:25:58.280 numbers, as I think you said
01:25:59.560 a while ago, it's not so
01:26:01.140 bad.
01:26:02.540 There's no apocalypse
01:26:03.840 in the future.
01:26:07.080 Yes, there are issues, but
01:26:08.700 we will navigate them.
01:26:10.320 So I think it is a
01:26:11.740 combination of both being
01:26:13.560 informed, but also being
01:26:14.860 naturally optimistic.
01:26:16.840 Right.
01:26:17.120 Well, that bit of a tilt
01:26:18.200 towards optimism is what
01:26:19.600 moves people out into the
01:26:20.680 world.
01:26:20.900 And, you know, I also
01:26:21.740 don't know so much if
01:26:22.980 that's properly
01:26:23.720 characterized as optimism
01:26:25.020 or something characterized
01:26:27.160 more accurately, let's say,
01:26:29.300 as useful faith.
01:26:32.160 I mean, there are reasons
01:26:33.540 to assume that things will
01:26:34.660 go to hell in a handbasket,
01:26:35.880 but there's reasons to
01:26:36.880 assume that we could manage
01:26:38.760 as well as we have in the
01:26:40.200 past or better.
01:26:41.520 And I think that one of the
01:26:43.100 attributes that tilts us
01:26:45.540 towards managing well in the
01:26:47.500 future is the willingness to
01:26:49.600 have some faith in our
01:26:50.720 ability to adapt and to do
01:26:52.300 the right thing.
01:26:53.720 And, you know, when we're
01:26:55.780 constantly presenting young
01:26:57.240 people with the picture of
01:26:58.420 human beings as destructive
01:26:59.960 environmental and cultural
01:27:01.320 forces, we squash that
01:27:03.660 natural faith, which is,
01:27:05.660 well, yeah, there's problems
01:27:06.740 because being alive is a
01:27:08.080 problem, but we have a host of
01:27:10.520 potential solutions at hand
01:27:12.360 and we're not without resources
01:27:15.260 in the face of our challenges
01:27:16.740 and the resources are
01:27:17.960 multiplying.
01:27:18.360 This is the second immoral
01:27:21.400 dimension of what the
01:27:23.100 current scene looks like.
01:27:24.920 Not only are we trying to
01:27:27.440 deny six and a half billion
01:27:29.200 people adequate, reliable,
01:27:32.140 affordable energy, but we are
01:27:34.000 particularly in the West
01:27:35.440 depressing the younger
01:27:37.360 generation in a most
01:27:39.120 unreasonable way.
01:27:40.220 They don't want to have
01:27:40.820 children.
01:27:41.380 They think the world is going
01:27:42.360 to go to hell in the next
01:27:43.360 10 years and so on.
01:27:45.040 That's complete nonsense.
01:27:46.080 And somebody needs to stand
01:27:48.460 up and say that.
01:27:50.040 And not only do they not
01:27:51.060 want to have children, they
01:27:51.860 don't even want to have
01:27:52.500 sex.
01:27:53.480 I mean, we've really
01:27:54.300 demoralized a whole
01:27:55.500 generation.
01:27:56.320 And, you know, there is
01:27:57.460 something terribly immoral
01:27:58.620 about that because my
01:28:00.100 hypothesis is that if you
01:28:02.120 think poor people should
01:28:03.340 starve because energy prices
01:28:04.940 should go up and if you
01:28:06.000 think that demoralizing
01:28:07.260 young people is a good way
01:28:08.940 to ensure the long-term
01:28:09.980 sustainability of the
01:28:11.160 planet, you and I are not
01:28:12.840 on the same side.
01:28:14.960 Not even a little bit.
01:28:16.080 Like, I think it's
01:28:17.240 absolutely reprehensible
01:28:18.440 that we're casting people
01:28:19.520 back into poverty, both
01:28:20.780 in the West, because we're
01:28:22.020 doing that to poor people
01:28:23.100 who are marginal now, but
01:28:24.540 more importantly in the
01:28:25.740 developing world.
01:28:26.800 And this continued
01:28:27.660 demoralization is
01:28:28.920 absolutely inexcusable.
01:28:31.000 I would love to engage
01:28:33.740 with some of the leaders.
01:28:36.020 John Kerry, Bill Gates, my
01:28:38.920 former friend and colleague
01:28:40.480 Ernie Moniz, who was
01:28:41.560 Secretary of Energy, a very
01:28:42.800 good Secretary of Energy,
01:28:43.900 all of whom are on the
01:28:45.940 moralimist side of these
01:28:48.260 things, I'd love to have
01:28:49.940 this kind of conversation
01:28:51.400 with them and ask them
01:28:52.900 about those two immoral
01:28:55.080 dimensions.
01:28:55.900 It's very hard to get a
01:28:58.160 serious discussion.
01:29:00.340 I recently have done four
01:29:02.740 debates with credible people
01:29:05.440 on the other side, presented
01:29:07.840 the arguments against rapid
01:29:10.660 decarbonization, and I'm proud
01:29:12.700 to say I won all four
01:29:14.280 debates by the audience.
01:29:15.480 We should put those in the
01:29:16.380 links to the description, so
01:29:18.200 if you could send those.
01:29:20.020 Yeah, I will send those
01:29:21.580 to you.
01:29:22.680 So the first one was against
01:29:25.000 a climate scientist from
01:29:26.660 Texas A&M, Andrew
01:29:28.380 Dessler, who is much more
01:29:31.160 of a climate scientist than
01:29:32.340 he is an energy guy, and you
01:29:33.660 need both here.
01:29:35.860 The second debate was, and
01:29:38.040 probably in my view the best
01:29:39.760 one, was against Daniel
01:29:41.800 Schrag, who's a professor of
01:29:43.860 earth sciences at Harvard, and
01:29:45.960 has been and still remains a
01:29:47.980 good friend and colleague.
01:29:49.860 The third was against an
01:29:52.120 energy economist at Columbia
01:29:54.560 named Gernot Wagner, and then
01:29:57.620 the fourth was again against
01:29:59.660 Andrew Dessler, who wanted a
01:30:01.700 rematch.
01:30:02.140 And so these, the problem
01:30:05.100 with talking about this is you
01:30:07.040 need to understand both the
01:30:08.400 climate science and the energy
01:30:10.600 side.
01:30:11.920 And there aren't many people, by
01:30:13.440 virtue of my background, I have
01:30:15.480 perhaps been exposed to both in
01:30:17.920 ways that most people have not.
01:30:19.440 Right, right.
01:30:19.900 Well, that's another problem with
01:30:21.480 regards to, let's say, public
01:30:23.880 opinion, is that, well, first of
01:30:26.780 all, most people aren't climate
01:30:28.680 scientists, that's for sure.
01:30:30.460 In fact, they're a very small
01:30:32.180 percentage of the population.
01:30:34.120 And then, as you pointed out, if
01:30:35.720 you add the additional
01:30:36.780 requirement of having some
01:30:38.600 expertise on the energy front,
01:30:40.440 you're taking a very small
01:30:41.800 fraction of a very small
01:30:43.020 fraction of people.
01:30:44.580 And maybe you can count them
01:30:45.900 on, I don't know, maybe they're
01:30:48.340 in the, maybe there's under a
01:30:50.200 hundred of them in the world.
01:30:51.780 There just aren't that many.
01:30:53.720 And so, you know, part of, part
01:30:55.060 of this is also the case that the
01:30:57.160 whole species is starting to
01:30:59.420 wrestle with problems of a level
01:31:02.720 of abstraction and a level of
01:31:04.520 magnitude that are really
01:31:05.640 unforeseen, right?
01:31:07.200 And so we don't, when I worked
01:31:09.480 for the UN committees that were
01:31:11.120 working on the sustainable
01:31:12.200 goals, one of the first things I
01:31:14.140 realized was, oh, no one's an
01:31:17.440 expert in sustainable
01:31:18.600 development.
01:31:19.480 That's not an area of
01:31:21.460 expertise.
01:31:22.380 No one knows how to do this.
01:31:24.060 And so we are, in some sense,
01:31:25.700 casting around in the dark.
01:31:26.960 And part of the problem with
01:31:28.380 that is we do fall into our
01:31:29.840 apocalyptic heuristics very, very
01:31:31.700 easily, especially if that can be
01:31:33.220 weaponized for political purposes.
01:31:35.180 But it's a little hard on young
01:31:36.220 people.
01:31:36.700 It's a little hard on poor people.
01:31:38.920 But, you know, you need to
01:31:40.100 approach these problems with an
01:31:41.700 inquisitive mind because there are
01:31:43.440 so many different dimensions and
01:31:44.860 you want to go out and learn enough
01:31:46.900 about them to be able to ask the
01:31:49.440 right kind of questions to the
01:31:50.860 experts.
01:31:51.300 Yeah, well, you know, the other
01:31:52.240 thing we do to young people, this
01:31:53.640 really made me disenchanted in some
01:31:55.720 ways with what was happening in
01:31:57.180 universities, there were many
01:31:58.400 reasons for that disenchantment.
01:31:59.860 But, you know, the other thing that
01:32:02.140 we convince young people of right
01:32:05.260 when they're in their messianic
01:32:06.920 phase, that's a Piagetian
01:32:08.480 developmental stage between about
01:32:10.040 16 and 20, is that the way forward
01:32:13.160 morally to take your place in
01:32:15.340 broader society is by taking the
01:32:17.680 route of political activism.
01:32:19.540 And that basically means that what
01:32:21.280 you do to be a moral person is to
01:32:23.960 identify the perpetrators of the
01:32:26.000 apocalyptic catastrophe and then go
01:32:28.340 make life miserable for them.
01:32:30.220 Instead of teaching young people that
01:32:32.920 no, you should actually spend a few
01:32:35.280 decades developing the knowledge
01:32:37.320 necessary to make some real progress
01:32:39.160 on these fronts, you shouldn't assume
01:32:40.840 that there's some cabal of enemies
01:32:42.960 that you've identified when you're
01:32:44.660 18 and you certainly shouldn't assume
01:32:47.180 that the mere fact that you're out
01:32:48.700 waving a placard and protesting means
01:32:50.740 that you're on the right side of
01:32:52.120 history or even on your own, or even
01:32:54.140 in relationship to your own
01:32:55.280 psychological development.
01:32:56.440 So my interaction with young people
01:32:59.700 these days is mostly through the
01:33:01.260 courses I teach at NYU.
01:33:03.080 I teach climate and then energy, two
01:33:06.960 separate courses to master's level
01:33:09.000 students.
01:33:09.860 And fortunately, I think already there
01:33:12.440 are a mix of engineers and MBAs, so
01:33:15.160 they have this desire to actually do
01:33:18.200 something positive rather than simply,
01:33:21.480 as you say, wave flags and complain
01:33:23.780 about what's being done.
01:33:25.840 And what I find in both courses is how
01:33:29.380 much the eyes get opened up.
01:33:32.240 Whether it's about the climate science,
01:33:34.180 which I teach almost entirely out of the
01:33:37.140 IPCC and the research literature, or the
01:33:41.420 energy, which I teach, you know, both the
01:33:44.080 technologies, the business, the regulation,
01:33:46.480 and so on.
01:33:48.100 And, you know, I think it's gratifying to
01:33:51.580 see eyes open up.
01:33:52.540 That's one of the great benefits of being
01:33:54.700 a teacher, as you know.
01:33:56.600 But also it shows to me that people can
01:34:00.560 spend a little bit of time to learn some of
01:34:02.920 these basics and then be critically
01:34:06.220 questioning, inquisitive about these very
01:34:09.700 complicated but important subjects.
01:34:11.240 Right. Well, and it's also very heartening to
01:34:13.220 know that you can do that at NYU and that
01:34:15.280 that's working.
01:34:16.500 Yeah. You know, when I was about to
01:34:19.360 publish the book, I sent the manuscript to
01:34:22.660 both the president and the provost, whom I
01:34:25.060 know well, since former academic
01:34:26.860 administrators tend to hang out together.
01:34:30.340 And their response was, you know, Steve, I
01:34:33.380 don't know if I agree with everything you've
01:34:35.100 written, but you've got a right to say it and
01:34:37.060 we support that.
01:34:37.720 Well, thank God for that.
01:34:38.900 So, all right. Well, look, that's probably a
01:34:41.800 good place, time to close.
01:34:43.080 We're at about the end of our 90 minutes
01:34:44.940 here on YouTube.
01:34:45.960 I'm going to talk to Dr.
01:34:47.800 Coonan a bit more on the Daily Wire Plus
01:34:49.580 platform. As many of you who are watching
01:34:51.780 and listening know, I like to take my
01:34:53.900 guests and do some investigation into their
01:34:56.540 particular biography because I think it's
01:34:58.240 useful for people to hear about how
01:35:00.240 people's successful destiny makes itself
01:35:04.040 manifest in their lives.
01:35:05.360 And it also helps please me on the clinical
01:35:09.120 front because I like finding out about
01:35:10.680 people's lives.
01:35:11.460 And so we're going to switch over to the
01:35:12.760 Daily Wire Plus platform to do that for
01:35:14.600 about half an hour.
01:35:15.940 Thank you very much for agreeing to talk to
01:35:17.920 me today and for bringing what you know to
01:35:19.740 the attention of all the people who will be
01:35:21.320 watching this and listening across the podcast
01:35:24.100 platforms and on YouTube.
01:35:25.460 And it's quite positive to be speaking with so
01:35:31.320 many people who are knowledgeable now about
01:35:34.500 the climate apocalypse and who have drawn the
01:35:39.240 conclusion that this is something that we can
01:35:41.060 handle and that we could handle in a very good
01:35:43.320 way if we were even remotely careful.
01:35:46.360 And hopefully that will be, as you pointed out,
01:35:50.160 maybe the tide is starting to turn on this and
01:35:52.280 we're going to start to understand that we can
01:35:54.240 think in terms of centuries and that we can
01:35:55.980 actually manage this.
01:35:58.360 Hello, everyone.
01:35:59.220 I would encourage you to continue listening to
01:36:01.760 my conversation with my guest on
01:36:04.180 dailywireplus.com.