The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast


345. 12 Ways the Planet Could Truly Be Saved ｜ Bjørn Lomborg


Summary

Bjorn Lomborg and his team at the Copenhagen Consensus think tank in Denmark have been working for years on a project called "Spending Prioritization" to help us prioritize our spending on solving the world's most pressing problems. And they've got a lot of ideas. In this episode of the Daily Wire Plus podcast, we talk to Bjorn about the project, and talk about some of the ideas they've been working on for the past decade and a half, and why they think we should all be prioritizing the things we can do the most for the most amount of money, in the shortest amount of time, with the highest return. We also talk about what they're working on, and what it means to prioritize the things that matter the most to us, and how we can make the most of our time and money to make the biggest impact on the world we can. This episode is sponsored by Enbridge Sustain Smartflow. To learn more about their Smartflow, visit EnbridgeSustain.smartflow.org/sustain. To find a list of our sponsors and show-related promo codes and promo codes, go to gimlet.fm/OurAdvertisers. We'll be looking out for you in the coming weeks for our upcoming ad-free version of the show. Thank you for supporting the show! Timestamps: 1:00 - What's your favorite thing you're doing? 2: What do you like about the show? 3: What are you looking forward to in 2020? 4: What would you like to do in the next episode? 5:30 - How do you'd like to hear from me in the future? 6: What is your biggest pet peeves? 7: What s your biggest takeaway from this podcast? 8:15 - What are your biggest piece of advice? 9:40 - What is the one thing that you're looking for in the world? 10:00- What are some of your biggest challenge? 11:00s - What kind of thing you would like to see me talk about in 2020 and why you're most passionate about? 12:00 | What s the most important to you? 13:30s - Why do you want me to talk about it? 14: What's the biggest thing you re going to do next? 15:40s - what do you think about the future of the planet?


Transcript

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00:00:30.000 Hello, everyone, watching and listening on YouTube and associated platforms and on the Daily Wire Plus, too. I'm here today. I'm pleased to be here today live. So that's also good.
00:00:55.520 With Bjorn Lomborg, who runs a think tank called Copenhagen Consensus in Denmark, and Bjorn has done the most detailed and reliable analysis of spending prioritization, I would say.
00:01:09.800 There are a number of enterprises that are underway on the international front, but it's a chaotic mess of jumbled priority, and that's a big problem because it makes everything super expensive and inefficient, which might be a feature rather than a bug.
00:01:24.780 And Bjorn and Bjorn and Bjorn and his team have spent, well, it's more than a decade now, damn near 20 years, determining how to prioritize our approaches on the national and international front in relationship to the multitude of problems that beset us.
00:01:43.360 And it's important to stress multitude because we have a proclivity in the woke West to reduce the entire panoply of problems that confront us or opportunities, depending on how you look at it, to a single climate emergency, and then to reduce that to a single cause, carbon.
00:02:00.980 And then to assume that if we oppose carbon, we're now acting as the appropriate representatives of the Messiah on the planet.
00:02:08.900 And none of that constitutes acceptable theology, let's say, let alone policy.
00:02:14.100 So I'm going to talk to Bjorn today about what he's been up to recently, but then we're going to walk through 12 projects that Bjorn and his team of economists, team of, it's a meta team of economists, because there's many teams working, what they believe, where we can do the most good for the least amount of money in the shortest period of time with the highest return, all of that, multidimensional calculation.
00:02:40.020 So good to see you, Bjorn.
00:02:42.220 Likewise.
00:02:42.800 You've been at Stanford for a couple of weeks.
00:02:45.020 What have you been doing there?
00:02:46.660 So I'm a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford.
00:02:51.460 And so I gave the first presentation of the project that you just described, which is basically a project that tries to say, look, we'd love to do everything in the world.
00:03:00.360 And everybody sort of promises everything in the world.
00:03:03.520 And we actually have it documented because the world has made 169 different targets, its priorities.
00:03:12.640 They're called the Sustainable Development Goals, where we promised we're going to fix, as you mentioned, climate.
00:03:18.260 But we're also going to fix world peace and we're going to get rid of corruption.
00:03:22.520 We're going to make sure that everybody are well-educated and don't starve and get out of poverty and that we get more parks for handicapped people in urban areas and we recycle more.
00:03:33.000 And the list just goes on and on.
00:03:36.000 And there's something almost comical about the total effect of that because we're promising everything to everyone all the time.
00:03:43.680 But, of course, we're actually not delivering on this.
00:03:46.060 We promised this from 2016 to 30.
00:03:49.980 So this year, we're at halftime.
00:03:52.620 We're at halftime of all the global promises.
00:03:55.360 So remember, this is promises that every single nation in the world has signed up to.
00:03:59.640 The U.S., Canada, pretty much everyone.
00:04:01.900 I think Siri is the only one that hasn't done this yet.
00:04:05.040 So we promised all this stuff.
00:04:07.200 We're not delivering at all.
00:04:09.220 And so what we're trying to say is, look, if we can't do it all, what should we do first?
00:04:14.700 What are the smartest things?
00:04:16.240 One of the things I worked on, one of the relatively early documents in the sustainable development goal world,
00:04:25.100 that was the Secretary General's report on sustainable economic development.
00:04:29.900 That was about 15 years ago.
00:04:31.560 And one of the things I found very peculiar about it, it's actually what tilted me over towards your work eventually,
00:04:37.980 was that there were 200 goals.
00:04:40.820 And I thought, that's a lot of goals.
00:04:43.100 At some point, you have so many goals that really what you're saying is, we're going to do everything at once.
00:04:50.060 And that's a stupid plan.
00:04:51.760 Because any number, any one of the goals is actually quite difficult to attain.
00:04:57.880 You have to build a structure and systems that will move towards the goal.
00:05:02.100 And you have to put the spending in place.
00:05:04.860 And you have to evaluate the outcome.
00:05:06.400 It's actually very difficult.
00:05:07.820 You have to build the local apparatuses.
00:05:09.600 And so I asked the powers that be, why the hell there were 200 goals?
00:05:16.200 And their answer was, well, each of the priorities has a constituency somewhere spread across countries or in a given country.
00:05:24.700 And we don't want to offend anyone by rank ordering our priorities.
00:05:30.460 And I thought, well, that's all well and good.
00:05:32.300 Plus, the upside of that from a political perspective is that you get all the moral cachet of being concerned about everything that you would be concerned about if you were good,
00:05:43.440 without any of the responsibility for actually doing any of the difficult work.
00:05:47.880 And so you can go to COP26 or whatever the hell it is and posture on the world stage about your commitment to these wonderful goals and appeal to 200 different constituents
00:05:57.080 and walk away while having agreed to spend a tremendous amount of money stupidly, but shining, at least in your own eyes and in the eyes of the press.
00:06:06.900 So then I was looking around.
00:06:08.040 I thought, well, there must be someone somewhere sensible enough to understand that 200 goals is absurd.
00:06:13.140 And the only group that I could really find that had a method for rank ordering priorities was your team.
00:06:22.180 And so do you want to explain exactly how you do that?
00:06:24.600 And then we can progress with our discussion about what you think should be done?
00:06:29.200 Yeah.
00:06:29.600 So you're absolutely right.
00:06:31.540 Look, it's much easier for politicians to just promise everything to everyone because then they just seem like good guys and they don't actually make any decision.
00:06:38.800 Of course, they do in reality because every year you have a budget and you don't have infinite resources on your budget.
00:06:45.380 So in your budget, you actually show what it is that you really care for.
00:06:49.200 And so it ends up being a few things that you focus on, but often without much concern about efficiency.
00:06:55.100 So what we're trying to bring to the table is, in a sense, and that's what economists can do.
00:07:00.200 We're basically helping, and I should just say I'm a pretend economist.
00:07:03.320 I'm actually a political scientist, but I work with a lot of really, really smart economists.
00:07:07.440 And they look at how much will it cost and how much good will it do.
00:07:13.380 Remember, some things are very desirable, but really, really hard to do.
00:07:17.660 So, you know, for instance, getting rid of corruption in general.
00:07:19.900 I'll actually tell you we do have one good solution.
00:07:22.280 But in general, corruption, huge problem.
00:07:24.460 It costs about a trillion dollars a year or more for the world, but we don't know how to get rid of it.
00:07:29.300 It's really hard to do because the systems that are needed to get rid of corruption are exactly the ones that are corrupt.
00:07:35.640 Right.
00:07:35.880 So it's really hard to do something about it.
00:07:37.620 This has been a real problem, as the former Soviet Union countries have tried to retool.
00:07:41.980 Because even if you import Western structures, nobody trusts them because the corruption is so unbelievably widespread.
00:07:49.480 And the problem with corruption, of course, is that once it's instantiated, it manifests itself at every level of society.
00:07:55.820 And so that's a good example of a low-resolution concept.
00:07:59.320 Well, there's corruption.
00:08:00.420 It's like, yeah.
00:08:01.360 But now you've said very little by saying that because the devil in that situation is definitely in the details.
00:08:07.780 And so you might want to fight corruption, but that's not a plan.
00:08:10.840 And so you set up teams of economists that would rank order the goals, and then you averaged across the teams, which I also thought was brilliant methodologically.
00:08:22.400 Because you could argue that any given economist's analysis of both costs and benefits has a margin of error of some substantive amount, right?
00:08:31.960 And because it's hard to assess and to forecast.
00:08:36.380 But technically speaking, from the perspective of a social scientist, I would say that that's an unbeatable methodology, even though it's still going to produce a somewhat problematic end.
00:08:47.440 Because you zoom in on where there's multidimensionally measured consensus.
00:08:57.100 And at least in principle, you'd be ironing out the errors of any given team of economists.
00:09:04.320 Hopefully, yes.
00:09:05.200 Well, at least to the degree you can.
00:09:06.820 Again, we're not trying to make the truth of the world, but we're just trying to make a much better resolution of what it is that we can do.
00:09:14.600 So we try to identify what are things that we can actually do.
00:09:17.960 Right, so they're practical.
00:09:19.280 Stuff we know works.
00:09:19.760 Yeah.
00:09:20.280 And that we have good evidence for works at low cost with high benefits.
00:09:25.400 And so what we're essentially doing is we provide, if you will, a menu for the world.
00:09:30.860 So a menu typically comes with, you know, it tells you what you're going to get, how much you're going to get, a tiny pizza or a big pizza, and how much will it cost.
00:09:40.400 And then, of course, you can make those decisions.
00:09:42.660 So economists are not going to tell you, you should do this.
00:09:45.460 Right.
00:09:45.520 But basically, we're telling you, here is something that at very low cost can give you a lot of good food.
00:09:51.320 How about that?
00:09:52.140 So on the same way, in the world order, we make a list of all the things, of all the things you'd like to do, where are really smart, or that is really very effective policies that we know works that would help a lot of people at low cost.
00:10:07.420 Yeah.
00:10:07.540 Why don't we do that before we do the stuff that'll cost a lot but help very few people?
00:10:12.080 Right, right.
00:10:12.640 Well, and we should talk a little bit about that as a fundamental presupposition, too, because there's a kind of utilitarianism there, which is that all things considered, in the absence of other compelling reasons, you should do what you can the most efficient way.
00:10:28.460 Well, why?
00:10:29.620 Well, because what efficiency means, because people might say, well, you know, some things are so important that it's worth spending the money on.
00:10:35.200 It's like, yeah, but there's many things that are important, and unfortunately, when you spend, given that resources are not precisely infinite, when you spend money in one place, that means you're not spending it in another place.
00:10:48.600 And so, though, if you believe that you have 12 things to do that are good, or 169 things, you have to value efficiency from the moral perspective, because in principle, efficiency is precisely that which allows you to address more than you would have otherwise been able to manage.
00:11:07.520 And otherwise, what, are you going to make an argument for inefficiency, which is, so...
00:11:12.260 It's weird, at least.
00:11:13.100 Well, yeah, yeah, so this is, well, I like this, because it zeroed us in, your methodology.
00:11:20.260 It also reduced a landscape of problems that was so diverse and disparate that there was no way anyone sensible could have possibly undertaken the enterprise.
00:11:31.660 And then it's extraordinarily practical.
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00:13:11.600 And also, the other thing that I found very striking was that in comparison to the amount of money we're already spending on all sorts of things,
00:13:24.000 the amounts that your teams have been recommending are really rounding errors in the total, let's say, international, in the total world of international or national governance.
00:13:34.940 And so, but it's also demoralizing in some sense because you understand that we could do the 12 most important and efficient things
00:13:43.340 and do a lot of good for a lot of people, especially the absolutely poor.
00:13:47.300 And we could do that without really even noticing it.
00:13:51.260 Noticing, yeah.
00:13:51.720 Yeah, on the spending side.
00:13:53.160 Yeah.
00:13:53.400 So that's incredibly optimistic, but the problem is that you've got to ask yourself, given that that's the case,
00:14:00.140 what the hell have we been doing?
00:14:02.000 And, well, that's something we'll delve into today.
00:14:03.840 So we're going to go through Bjorn's 12 suggested projects and talk about their cost, but also about what they could do for people.
00:14:15.900 And tell me if you think this is true.
00:14:18.120 So imagine that there's a rule of thumb ethic that underlies the selection of these projects.
00:14:23.660 We talked a little bit about efficiency, but I think the ethic is something like,
00:14:27.780 Well, if we could alleviate material poverty, absolute poverty, not relative poverty, but to start with, at least absolute poverty, enough for people to eat, make sure they have access to hygienic facilities,
00:14:42.280 make sure they're not inhaling indoor pollution to the point that they're dying, they're not starving.
00:14:48.980 Their kids have some opportunity.
00:14:50.420 There's some option for them to expand their temporal horizon across decades instead of focusing on the necessity for the next meal,
00:14:58.900 because that makes them impulsive, you might say, with regards to what they're willing to do on the environmental front.
00:15:05.960 And so, at minimum, you're trying to raise the standard of living at the very bottom end.
00:15:11.340 And you want to do that in a way that allows you to do that multiple ways.
00:15:15.720 And that's kind of the overall ethical schema, I would say.
00:15:19.120 I think it's what comes out of what we try to do.
00:15:22.140 So we're basically saying, look, there's a lot of different things you can do in the world.
00:15:26.980 We know there's 169 things.
00:15:29.500 And there's literally thousands of different projects out there.
00:15:32.580 We've tried to look at a lot of them and say, what do we have evidence for?
00:15:35.780 And what are the costs?
00:15:37.120 And so we've tried to estimate, and this is an impossible task.
00:15:40.120 So we reasonably assume that we've covered the whole area of saying, where can you get an enormous amount of good for every dollar or shilling or rupee spent?
00:15:50.820 And what we find is, so we're looking at, where can you spend a dollar and at least do $15 of good?
00:15:58.020 This is a threshold that we've set, which basically means that all the things we're talking about are incredibly good things.
00:16:06.320 Imagine if you could give a dollar to this one project and you could do at least $15 of social good.
00:16:13.580 Well, we should also point out that's not an expense then, that's an investment.
00:16:17.920 Well, it is an expense in the sense that because if you've spent the dollar, you don't get $15 back.
00:16:23.040 Right, right, right.
00:16:23.860 You get $15 of social benefits, typically in the poor world.
00:16:28.500 You also mentioned that this is mostly for the world's poorer people.
00:16:31.580 So we're looking at low and low-middle-income countries.
00:16:35.380 That's World Bank estimates, so it basically means that you live with less than, say, $13 per day, which is not very much.
00:16:44.060 So this is a little more than half the world's population.
00:16:47.860 So 4.1 billion people live in the low and low-middle-income countries.
00:16:52.060 So that's everywhere from Malawi, a very, very poor country, to India, to Bangladesh.
00:16:56.560 That's actually a fairly rich, lower-middle-income country.
00:17:00.580 So what that tells you is this is where the best investments are because that's where you can help the most people at very low cost.
00:17:09.480 And they're the ones most in need.
00:17:11.840 Absolutely.
00:17:12.520 It'll cost a lot to make you a little better off, but it costs actually very, very little to make the world's poorest much better off.
00:17:19.380 And so it also has this moral sense of that is how we should be prioritizing.
00:17:24.600 Yeah, well, that's the proper payment for privilege, you know, I would say, is once you have the economic wherewithal to be contemplating projects of the sort that we're describing,
00:17:34.600 you also have the moral requirement to do that in a manner that's intelligent.
00:17:38.600 And also, you might say, that would address the problems of the people in the most want first.
00:17:44.260 Yes. And one of the things that we find doing these projects is that it's amazing, as you also pointed out, that we spend so much time focusing on some of these other things like, you know, plastic in the oceans and climate change and many other things.
00:17:59.840 These are all worthy things, mind you.
00:18:02.020 And a lot of people will argue that we should do them because they will help the world's poor.
00:18:06.660 The problem is they'll help them very ineffectively.
00:18:09.640 So for every dollar spent, they will only help them in infinitesimal part.
00:18:14.660 Whereas if we spend that dollar on some of these projects that we're going to be talking about, you can have an enormous impact right here, right now.
00:18:21.800 So again, it's not to say that we shouldn't do all the other wonderful things.
00:18:25.340 I'm simply making the argument we should probably do this first.
00:18:28.920 Yeah, yeah.
00:18:29.560 And so just to give you a sense of proportion, just to get a scale of this, the 12 solutions that we come up with, they will, in total cost, about, you know, I'm giving you a rough estimate here because there's different ways to measure, it'll need about $35 billion a year in funding.
00:18:48.480 And that funding could come from, you know, rich people like Elon Musk and Bill Gates.
00:18:52.640 It could come from our development agencies, USAID or GIZ or whatever, you know, we're spending $175 billion in development aid every year.
00:19:01.740 So surely we could afford $35 billion.
00:19:04.720 This is, as you mentioned, a drop in the bucket.
00:19:08.040 It really is a rounding error.
00:19:09.740 If we spent that amount of money over this decade, we would every year save 4.2 million lives.
00:19:18.000 This is 8% of everyone who dies in the world.
00:19:20.540 We could avoid 8% of all death in this world.
00:19:23.540 Of course, we won't do that indefinitely because people have to die, but we would postpone that.
00:19:28.340 That would be an incredible boon for a lot of people and a lot of societies.
00:19:32.900 And at the same time, we would generate economic benefits worth $1.1 trillion.
00:19:39.680 Just to give you a sense of proportion of what that means, that means that we could almost make sure that every person in the poorer part of the world,
00:19:48.040 so the 4.1 billion people that we talked about before, could get about $1 every day, almost $1 every day each person.
00:19:57.240 So these projects that cost virtually nothing could save 8% of everyone who dies and get almost all people in the lower, in the poorer half of the world, $1 a day.
00:20:08.300 Okay, so I want to investigate something a little bit darker before we start our discussion about the projects per se.
00:20:14.580 So one of the things that I see emerging on the chaotic and confused 169 goals front is an ethos that is also not precisely explicit, but that sort of lurks beneath the surface.
00:20:29.940 And there are claims that go along with it.
00:20:32.100 It might be that people who are listening think, well, this is all obvious, obviously we should spend money in the most efficient way, we should spend the least amount of money we have to spend, we should do it so that it does the most good.
00:20:42.800 But we should also understand that there are real resistances to this approach.
00:20:47.460 And so one of the resistances that's implicit and sometimes explicit is the notion that, well, first of all, we're playing a zero-sum game in the world, so if some people are rich, other people have to be poor.
00:20:58.460 There's not enough for everybody.
00:21:00.040 And then, which I don't believe to be true at all, and economists generally don't buy as an argument.
00:21:05.340 And then the next argument would be, well, let's say we could make poor people richer, but that's not sustainable because to support everybody in the world at the Western standard of living
00:21:16.700 would take five Earths, I've heard that figure bandied about, and there are probably, you know, there are way too many people on the planet.
00:21:23.280 In any case, there should only be 500 million or a billion or maybe 2 billion if they lived, you know, in poverty.
00:21:30.640 And so there's this notion that the planet is truly finite in some fundamental sense.
00:21:36.260 There's definitely not enough for everyone, and there's no way that we can elevate the living standards of the poor because all that would mean is that we're going to use up all the available resources faster.
00:21:45.900 So what do you think about that?
00:21:47.560 So first of all, on the zero-sum game, remember 200 years ago, we have good data for the last 200 years.
00:21:53.540 200 years ago, almost every one of us were poor, were extremely poor, so we lived at less than what used to be called $1 a day.
00:22:01.960 So we were all—
00:22:02.640 That was 95% of people.
00:22:04.160 It was 90, 95% of all people.
00:22:06.240 This is a terrible world.
00:22:07.860 There were a few people who were, you know, kings and dukes and those kinds of people.
00:22:13.720 And then the rest of us were living in absolute poverty.
00:22:18.020 We've pretty much eradicated most of that.
00:22:20.060 Now it's only 10% that live at less than $1 a day or what is really $2.15 now.
00:22:26.380 But, you know, so fundamentally, we can absolutely have a world that's much better, that's much richer, and one that's obviously much better for these people.
00:22:34.200 Now, people are worried about, well, can we sustainably live on this planet?
00:22:37.880 But what you have to remember is this is not a question of whether we have the resources to it.
00:22:43.920 Absolutely, we have the resources.
00:22:45.360 When you hear this, five Earths, that is a very, very bad comparison.
00:22:50.540 I get why they made it, but it basically assumes that because of climate change, it's almost entirely about climate change.
00:22:57.340 Because of climate change, which is a real problem, because we emit CO2, you have to plant forest to soak up that extra amount of CO2.
00:23:07.940 And if we all lived like Americans or, yeah, Americans, then you would need five Earths.
00:23:13.840 What they're really saying is you'd need five Earths of forest to plant.
00:23:17.820 But that's the most inefficient way to get rid of CO2.
00:23:22.740 A much smarter way would be to put up, I don't know, wind turbines and solar panels.
00:23:27.700 You could also put up nuclear power plants.
00:23:29.620 Well, yes, we could do that.
00:23:31.020 We could have very, very little footprint.
00:23:34.220 So actually, when you do the math, it turns out that this is just hokum.
00:23:38.280 Yes, there is a problem.
00:23:40.000 So we will do well within one Earth, even if we were much richer, all of us, and even if there were more people.
00:23:47.080 So, you know, about 10 billion people.
00:23:49.120 Yes, there is problems with having 10 billion people.
00:23:52.480 But having 10 billion rich people also means we can deal with most of these problems.
00:23:57.420 Well, in rich, we should also point out.
00:23:59.660 If you're poor, that's the real pollution problem.
00:24:04.700 Right, right.
00:24:05.280 If you're poor, you pollute a lot.
00:24:07.040 You both, you know, you cut down your forest to keep, you know, to slash burn so you can grow some food for your kids.
00:24:13.420 You'll have terrible indoor air pollution.
00:24:15.520 You will typically have very inefficient production.
00:24:18.220 You will have all kinds of bad things.
00:24:20.440 So what we really need, not just morally, to get people out of poverty and to get them to a good life,
00:24:26.280 but also actually that's the only way we can get people to be so involved that they will want and they can afford to care about the environment.
00:24:32.600 Right, right.
00:24:33.240 Well, we should also, we also have to watch very carefully the terminology we use.
00:24:37.960 Because when we start talking about making people rich, we need to really explain what that means.
00:24:43.620 Right.
00:24:45.520 Right.
00:24:49.320 Right.
00:24:50.400 Right.
00:24:51.340 Right.
00:24:52.380 Right.
00:24:52.540 Right.
00:24:53.600 Right.
00:24:53.660 Right.
00:24:54.200 Right.
00:24:54.840 Right.
00:24:57.720 Right.
00:24:58.260 Right.
00:25:00.280 Right.
00:25:02.720 Right.
00:25:04.440 Right.
00:25:04.520 Right.
00:25:06.020 Right.
00:25:07.520 Right.
00:25:08.060 Right.
00:25:08.400 Right.
00:25:09.160 Eh.
00:25:10.320 Right.
00:25:10.620 Right.
00:25:11.220 Right.
00:25:12.740 .
00:25:42.740 When we go back 200 years and everybody's scrabbling around in the dirt, what that really means is that people's next meal is uncertain.
00:25:54.100 And so is the sustainability of their shelter and the opportunities for them and their kids are extraordinarily limited.
00:26:01.920 So when we're talking about wealth, we're not talking about, you know, cocaine and hookers in Vegas wealth.
00:26:07.600 I was not talking about that, Alicia.
00:26:09.500 Yeah, well, people, the thing is it brings up this specter of the 1920s spats-wearing capitalist who's like a complete libertine on his time off.
00:26:17.440 And, you know, it's hyper-consumption wealth.
00:26:21.060 But that's not what we're talking about at the low end of the world.
00:26:23.480 We're talking about providing people with enough material security so that they can adopt a longer-term view.
00:26:29.500 So that they can start to pay attention to what sort of planet their children and grandchildren might inhabit.
00:26:34.860 And so that there's both reliable provision of food and shelter, basic health care, hygienic availability, and opportunity for their children.
00:26:48.260 And so it's not exactly wealth we're after here.
00:26:51.020 It's getting people away from zero.
00:26:53.140 Absolutely.
00:26:53.540 But also, you know, the people who are watching this, but also everyone who's really worried about that we're going to become these libertines from the 1920s, do they live like that?
00:27:04.340 No, they don't.
00:27:05.200 They live nice lives where they actually have heating in the winter and they have cooling in the summer.
00:27:10.280 They have enough food.
00:27:11.420 They don't have to worry about stuff.
00:27:12.900 Their kids go to school.
00:27:14.280 They have a nice life.
00:27:15.660 And they can go places and experience the world.
00:27:18.960 Everyone obviously would like to have that same kind of life.
00:27:22.360 And so this is not about, you know, absurd consumption or anything, but this is about actually being able to have a good life.
00:27:28.720 Right.
00:27:29.020 Well, it's also, as you pointed out, it's also one of the things that struck me when I was doing my original research on this front 15 years ago was the overwhelming evidence.
00:27:39.900 And Marian Tupi's group, HumanProgress.org, has done a nice job of delineating that,
00:27:44.480 that there's actually a positive relationship between population growth above a certain level of standard of living, let's say,
00:27:52.360 and more abundance.
00:27:54.040 And what I've come to understand in the intervening time, and this is something that's very much worth taking apart, too,
00:27:58.980 is that we have this notion of natural resource.
00:28:03.300 And that's always struck me as specious, eh?
00:28:05.340 Because natural means it's sort of there at hand.
00:28:08.380 The only real natural resource I can think of is air.
00:28:11.620 Because all you have to do is breathe, and it's there.
00:28:14.700 But you still have to breathe, right?
00:28:17.120 So there's still some effort involved.
00:28:19.260 Okay, but when you start talking about even the next stage, which would be water, it's like, was water a natural resource?
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00:29:37.520 Water is, fresh water, yeah, fresh water is a technological miracle, fundamentally.
00:29:43.800 It takes a lot of industrial infrastructure and innovation to get fresh water to people,
00:29:48.140 and of course, oil, petroleum, is barely a natural resource at all.
00:29:52.380 I mean, we had petroleum forever.
00:29:53.800 No one figured out what the hell to do with it until, what, about 1860, something like that.
00:29:58.100 And so now it's a natural resource, but that's only because smart people figured out how to use it.
00:30:02.700 And so there's always this dynamic interplay between human ingenuity and governance structures and plenty.
00:30:09.200 And one of the things I've really come to understand is that abundance depends on the integrity of the individual,
00:30:17.980 the moral integrity of the individual, and the validity of the governance structures far more than it does on natural resources.
00:30:24.260 There's a zero-sum presumption in the natural resource discourse.
00:30:28.200 Yeah, that's just absolutely wrong.
00:30:29.860 I mean, back in the early 1900s, for instance, iron is a big thing.
00:30:36.160 We used to have just iron if it fell down as a meter, right?
00:30:39.400 Right.
00:30:39.780 Now pretty much everything we know is built with iron and steel.
00:30:43.760 And back in 1900, Carnegie, the rich guy, worried immensely about the fact,
00:30:49.100 because it's also important for military use,
00:30:51.520 he worried that we were using up all the good iron and that there would be nothing left over for future generations.
00:30:57.000 And what were they going to do?
00:30:58.240 How were they going to defend themselves?
00:30:59.620 All that kind of stuff.
00:31:00.640 But what he failed to remember is that when, sure, we use up the easily accessible and high quality iron ore,
00:31:07.040 so we have to dig deeper and we have to use worse iron ore.
00:31:10.820 But we also have a lot more technology that makes it a lot easier to dig and utilize poor iron ore and get it out cheaper.
00:31:18.580 That's what innovation means.
00:31:19.880 So actually what's happened is that while we have used up the easily accessible iron ore,
00:31:24.860 we have access to much, much more, much cheaper, much more effectively, and for all of humankind.
00:31:30.540 And this is true for pretty much all resources.
00:31:32.680 Well, there was the famous bet between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon.
00:31:37.200 Ehrlich wrote the population bomb for everyone who's listening.
00:31:39.940 He's still beating the same damn drum.
00:31:42.060 Ehrlich and the Club of Rome types back in the 60s prognosticated that by the year 2000 there'd be mass starvation.
00:31:49.100 And not only that, that the price of commodities would spike dramatically as inevitable scarcity kick in.
00:31:55.240 So Ehrlich and the biological types who think his way think in Malthusian terms.
00:32:01.160 And Malthus was an English thinker.
00:32:04.420 He was a pastor, if I remember correctly, who posited that all things being equal,
00:32:10.380 natural populations would expand to the point where they started to overconsume the available local resources and then collapse.
00:32:16.460 So that's like the yeast in a Petri dish model of humanity.
00:32:20.420 And there's a couple of problems with that, is that it rarely works that way in the natural world
00:32:25.080 because of checks and balances that emerge in ecosystems.
00:32:27.840 But even more importantly, the idea that we are best modeled as yeast in a zero-sum Petri dish is,
00:32:35.200 let's call it a bit presumptuous, if that.
00:32:38.100 Alfred North Whitehead, great thinker, pointed out that the reason that human beings think
00:32:43.140 is so that we can let our ideas die instead of us.
00:32:46.780 And so what that means is that what human beings have done is replace biological death.
00:32:54.860 You die when you do the same old stupid thing too many times.
00:32:58.900 So you have to either die and then new organisms emerge that do something different,
00:33:03.000 or you have to shift the way you do things, which is kind of a virtual death.
00:33:07.280 And that's what thought and discourse allows, is we can stop doing stupid things
00:33:11.640 and we can start doing more efficient things.
00:33:13.680 And there doesn't seem to be any real upper limit to that.
00:33:16.360 And I think the evidence for that is, well, first of all,
00:33:18.880 Ehrlich had that famous bet with Julian Simon, who was an economist,
00:33:23.260 who said, all right, you can pick the basket of commodities.
00:33:27.460 And I'll bet you, this was in the 60s, that by the year 2000,
00:33:30.740 you can pick the arbitrary date,
00:33:32.120 that those commodities will be less expensive, not more.
00:33:37.280 And that there won't be instances of mass starvation,
00:33:42.460 except unless they're politically produced.
00:33:44.440 And of course, Simon famously collected in the year 2000,
00:33:48.460 because what happened, even though Ehrlich picked the basket of commodities,
00:33:52.580 was that the average price of the commodities had gone down,
00:33:55.860 like so substantially that Ehrlich had to admit that he lost the bet.
00:34:00.180 And that hasn't stopped happening, you know?
00:34:02.180 I mean, I'm old enough now so that I can remember
00:34:05.420 when everyone was concerned about overpopulation.
00:34:08.000 And, you know, at that point in the 60s,
00:34:09.840 we were still, human beings were still trying to get a grip on the fact
00:34:13.560 that we were sort of now operating at a planetary level.
00:34:16.040 And it wasn't obvious how much damage we might do, you know?
00:34:19.100 There was reason for debate, at least.
00:34:21.900 But now we have 8 billion people rather than the four we had in the year 2000.
00:34:26.680 And the data is quite clear that as population has increased
00:34:30.180 and governance structures have improved,
00:34:31.860 especially since the Soviet Union collapsed,
00:34:34.560 that all that's happened fundamentally is we have more brain power
00:34:37.900 and everyone's far better off than they were.
00:34:41.360 We certainly have more technology,
00:34:43.720 and that's basically what makes it possible for us to be more people
00:34:47.300 and be better off and possibly actually leave with less environmental impact.
00:34:52.580 So one of the things we have to realize is there is a real environmental issue.
00:34:59.000 But fundamentally, yes, but you're only going to fix them
00:35:02.100 if you stop people from worrying about where's my next meal going to come from,
00:35:07.560 are my kids actually going to be well-educated, so on.
00:35:10.380 So it's about making sure that we actually pull people out of poverty,
00:35:14.280 put them on a path to prosperity,
00:35:16.440 and then we will also fix a lot of the environmental problems.
00:35:20.020 Well, that bromide, think globally, act locally,
00:35:24.100 that's a bromide that in some ways manifests itself
00:35:27.740 on the motivational front for environmentalists.
00:35:30.160 It's like, well, there's some truth in that,
00:35:31.580 is what we're doing with this conceptual scheme is thinking globally.
00:35:36.520 The global scheme is, well, how do we ameliorate absolute poverty?
00:35:40.140 Well, what's so wonderful about that,
00:35:43.280 and this is what struck me when I first reviewed the literature,
00:35:45.540 was that if we concentrated on ameliorating absolute poverty,
00:35:49.740 instead of making the planet worse,
00:35:51.660 we would make the planet better
00:35:52.920 by the standards of the radical environmentalists themselves.
00:35:56.920 And I thought, oh, that's so cool.
00:35:59.180 We could have our cake and eat it too,
00:36:01.440 and so could everybody else.
00:36:02.760 And you think, well, that's too good to be true.
00:36:04.520 And so then you do the microanalysis,
00:36:06.180 which is what you've done,
00:36:07.120 and you find out, well, not only could we do that,
00:36:09.580 we should do it, and we could do it so cheaply
00:36:13.340 that no one would even notice that we were doing it.
00:36:16.960 It would just mean we'd stop spending money
00:36:18.580 on some of the, well, possibly not even that.
00:36:21.120 We could keep spending all the money we're spending stupidly
00:36:23.680 and do this.
00:36:24.600 Spending badly, yes.
00:36:25.000 Yeah, yeah.
00:36:25.580 So let's delve into the details.
00:36:27.540 So what we've done is basically
00:36:29.420 look over all of the sustainable development goals
00:36:32.600 and look at where are the really good buys.
00:36:36.520 Where can you actually do a lot of good for little money?
00:36:38.960 And so we've come up with these 12 things.
00:36:41.140 So these are 12 different teams of economists
00:36:43.060 who've looked at each one of these.
00:36:44.800 They're the specialists, the best people in their area
00:36:47.440 to look at how much would this cost,
00:36:50.100 how much good would it do.
00:36:51.360 And what would it mean that they're the best people?
00:36:53.340 How did you identify them?
00:36:54.680 And how would you justify your claim
00:36:56.320 that you have the right people working on this?
00:36:58.340 So I think, so the short answer is
00:37:00.640 if you ask people in the area,
00:37:02.740 are these some of the best people?
00:37:04.360 They're obviously not.
00:37:06.240 Yes, yes.
00:37:07.060 They would all say, yeah,
00:37:08.580 these are some of the best people.
00:37:09.800 They're not the only people who could have done this,
00:37:12.000 but they're some of the best people
00:37:13.480 who are doing this,
00:37:14.660 who have published widely in the period literature.
00:37:17.820 They're all at the famous universities
00:37:20.020 and they are the ones who set the debate
00:37:22.920 on how to do this.
00:37:24.560 Okay, so there'd be a consensus on their expertise,
00:37:27.320 even if they'd be replaceable to some degree.
00:37:30.120 Oh, sure.
00:37:30.760 And look, again, our point is not,
00:37:33.400 so I'm gonna tell you about these things
00:37:35.600 and tell you for every dollar we spend,
00:37:37.580 you'll do $48 of good.
00:37:39.500 And in this particular case,
00:37:40.780 you'll do this much good.
00:37:42.060 Of course, it's not likely to be 48 in real life.
00:37:45.640 Yeah.
00:37:45.740 You know, it might be 50.
00:37:47.220 Right.
00:37:47.360 It might even be 60.
00:37:48.060 20 to 60.
00:37:48.820 But, you know, we don't care all that much.
00:37:51.380 It's gonna be a lot of good.
00:37:52.980 But obviously, we try to make the best estimates
00:37:55.020 that we can.
00:37:56.200 And so, for instance,
00:37:57.620 so let me just get started on one of these things.
00:38:00.140 So let me take maternal and newborn health.
00:38:03.980 So huge issue area.
00:38:05.520 So every year, about 300,000 moms die in childbirth.
00:38:10.320 About 2.4 million kids die
00:38:12.780 in their first 28 days on this planet.
00:38:16.720 Now, it's come down dramatically.
00:38:18.860 It used to be much, much worse.
00:38:20.660 So, you know, maternal death used to be
00:38:22.740 about 100 women who gave birth
00:38:27.700 would die in childbirth.
00:38:29.140 This was even true in rich countries,
00:38:31.980 you know, some 200 years ago.
00:38:33.600 And actually, rich women had higher risk
00:38:39.140 because they would go to a hospital
00:38:40.900 and there they would be treated by this doctor.
00:38:43.580 By filthy surgeons.
00:38:44.440 By this doctor who just chopped off a leg somewhere else
00:38:47.040 and then came in and helped.
00:38:49.340 Called that purple fever?
00:38:51.040 Wasn't that it?
00:38:51.440 Yes, purple fever.
00:38:52.220 It was one of the big things.
00:38:53.200 Jesus, dizzle.
00:38:54.100 And this was one of the reasons why we caught on to,
00:38:57.620 oh, wait, this might actually be, you know,
00:38:59.500 something about they need to wash their hands,
00:39:01.140 that kind of thing.
00:39:02.480 That was Semmelweis, wasn't it?
00:39:03.780 Yes, Semmelweis.
00:39:04.240 Who was hounded into insanity
00:39:05.480 by the people who objected to his germ theory.
00:39:07.960 Yes, yes.
00:39:09.220 And likewise, it used to be that
00:39:11.500 almost a fifth of every child that was born
00:39:14.320 died within the first 28 days.
00:39:16.260 So now it's, yes, 20%.
00:39:18.860 Now it's only 2%.
00:39:21.160 So we're much better off.
00:39:22.640 There's a lot of human misery
00:39:23.660 embedded in that statistic.
00:39:24.880 There's an incredible amount of human misery
00:39:27.300 if you look back.
00:39:28.340 Which, of course, is why the world is a much better place.
00:39:30.760 But we can make it even better.
00:39:32.700 So every two minutes,
00:39:34.320 so, you know, just this little conversation we've had here,
00:39:37.380 one mom has died and nine children has died
00:39:40.580 in the first 28 days of their lives.
00:39:42.920 Yeah.
00:39:43.460 Why don't we do something about it?
00:39:44.720 Turns out that it's incredibly cheap
00:39:46.880 to do something about.
00:39:48.080 How would you go about doing that?
00:39:49.880 Well, fundamentally, it's about a very simple thing,
00:39:53.300 namely make sure that more women
00:39:54.860 come into giving institutional birth.
00:39:57.780 Now the doctors actually wash their hands,
00:39:59.580 so that's a good idea.
00:40:00.920 And that means, especially when there are problems,
00:40:03.620 they will have an opportunity to get that problem fixed.
00:40:07.400 That means that if you have preeclampsia or eclampsia,
00:40:10.460 that basically means that you get very high blood pressure.
00:40:12.680 If you're a woman, just around your birth,
00:40:14.720 you may very well go into seizure.
00:40:16.880 You may actually die.
00:40:18.260 And the doctors or the nurses there will be able to help you.
00:40:21.560 So there's a whole range of things
00:40:23.980 that the World Health Organization recommends.
00:40:26.200 It's called Basic Emergency Obstetric and Newborn Care.
00:40:30.760 By friends, it's called BMONC.
00:40:32.900 And so we're saying we should have BMONC
00:40:37.080 and we should have family planning.
00:40:39.040 It turns out that those two things, by themselves,
00:40:42.400 could save an enormous amount, both of kids and moms.
00:40:45.920 So what does that mean?
00:40:46.920 Does that mean the provision of more hospitals,
00:40:48.960 or does it mean the provision of units
00:40:51.320 that specialize in maternal care?
00:40:54.760 So it would have costs
00:40:56.440 because you need to have more institutional facilities.
00:40:59.360 These are not the hospitals that you're imagining.
00:41:02.500 They're very, very cheap institutions, right?
00:41:04.440 They would be basically buildings with some power
00:41:06.880 and you need some nurses.
00:41:09.060 Not so many doctors.
00:41:10.420 This is very, very low,
00:41:13.920 fairly simple stuff.
00:41:15.820 And then you need some very basic things.
00:41:18.420 And I'll just give you one example.
00:41:19.820 The World Health Organization has a whole list of things.
00:41:22.100 But one thing, so when newborns come out in rich countries,
00:41:27.880 about 90, sorry, about 85% of them will breathe right away,
00:41:32.400 which of course is what they should be doing.
00:41:34.340 10% won't.
00:41:35.900 So that's why you need to dunk them in the back
00:41:37.860 and get them going.
00:41:39.180 And then they will actually do something.
00:41:41.240 Sorry, I should just, that's very bad.
00:41:44.860 No problem, no problem.
00:41:46.680 So then you need to dunk them.
00:41:48.700 But the last 5%, they don't start breathing themselves.
00:41:52.920 You actually need to have a mask over them and give them,
00:41:56.200 so 5%, you need to have this little mask.
00:41:59.460 You need to get them some-
00:41:59.880 It's just a hand pump.
00:42:01.100 Well, in the poor world, in the rich world,
00:42:03.440 you have a more expensive machine that does this, right?
00:42:06.380 But the fundamental point is you actually need
00:42:08.660 to have some intervention.
00:42:09.900 If you have that hand pump,
00:42:11.280 so only about 50% of all hospitals in the poor world has that,
00:42:15.240 it costs $65.
00:42:17.500 It will save about 25 lives,
00:42:20.380 along with the cost of the nurse.
00:42:26.200 It'll possibly cost about $5 to save a human life.
00:42:30.100 But how many of those kids that don't breathe well
00:42:32.780 suffer from anoxia and then are permanently crippled as well?
00:42:37.080 Well, there is a little risk,
00:42:38.500 but it's actually a very small risk
00:42:39.900 because you go from being fine to being crippled to die.
00:42:44.360 Right.
00:42:44.680 And typically, if you don't get-
00:42:46.900 It's a very-
00:42:48.120 So basically, it's a death sentence.
00:42:49.940 Yeah, it's a death sentence more.
00:42:51.840 Otherwise, you'd have to run and get the mask,
00:42:56.920 but a little too late.
00:42:58.540 Right.
00:42:58.680 So it's mostly just that these kids will die.
00:43:01.940 But we can, for very little money,
00:43:03.700 make sure that doesn't happen.
00:43:04.920 What are the impediments to having-
00:43:07.040 Like, why is that being done already?
00:43:08.680 Very good question.
00:43:09.600 And this is true for all the 12 things
00:43:11.700 that we're going to be talking about.
00:43:13.040 It's basically because this is not top priority.
00:43:17.500 So if you look, you know,
00:43:18.640 and look, I'm going to be a little facetious,
00:43:21.180 but only a little facetious.
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00:44:00.720 into the heart of prayer,
00:44:02.380 led by some of the most respected
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00:44:42.400 You know, the people who rule a country,
00:44:45.080 they're typically old men.
00:44:46.300 What do they worry about?
00:44:47.260 They worry about cancer.
00:44:48.720 They worry about, you know, heart disease.
00:44:50.340 That's the kind of thing
00:44:51.280 that they worry about themselves.
00:44:53.140 Women are not really, you know,
00:44:55.700 they're not a high-priority issue.
00:44:58.180 Births are not a high-priority issue.
00:44:59.680 Especially poor women.
00:45:00.440 Except, especially poor women.
00:45:02.160 Because there's too many of them anyways.
00:45:03.860 And also, if you think about it,
00:45:07.060 I don't know if you've ever seen that
00:45:08.400 in the Monty Python meaning of life.
00:45:11.780 They have the machine that says,
00:45:13.460 bling.
00:45:13.580 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:45:14.620 It's a wonderful,
00:45:15.580 if you haven't seen it,
00:45:16.500 you should definitely go see that.
00:45:18.640 So it's, you know,
00:45:19.240 it's basically doctors like expensive machines
00:45:21.940 that are exciting
00:45:22.740 and that they can talk about at conferences.
00:45:24.400 This little hand pump
00:45:26.320 that saves, you know, 25 lives,
00:45:29.760 not exciting.
00:45:30.680 We've seen one before.
00:45:32.040 It is also very difficult
00:45:33.200 for politicians to take credit for prevention.
00:45:35.820 Exactly.
00:45:36.240 Which is a real,
00:45:37.320 I mean, you can be cynical about that,
00:45:39.180 but, you know,
00:45:40.020 it's good to do good,
00:45:41.180 but it's also good to reward those
00:45:42.900 who are seen to be doing good.
00:45:44.520 And when you prevent something,
00:45:46.140 it just doesn't happen.
00:45:47.220 And so you can't really take credit for it, right?
00:45:49.740 You can't point to it and say,
00:45:51.900 well, I suppose with the kids,
00:45:53.040 that would be somewhat easier,
00:45:54.200 but generally that's a problem
00:45:55.320 on the prevention front, right?
00:45:57.360 Yes.
00:45:57.500 Well, but you can't see it
00:45:59.120 once it's happened,
00:46:00.220 so you're absolutely right.
00:46:01.120 But just to give you a sense of proportion,
00:46:03.180 so we estimate this will cost
00:46:05.080 about $4.9 billion a year.
00:46:08.280 That's not nothing,
00:46:09.640 but it's a very, very small,
00:46:11.280 as we talked about,
00:46:12.460 rounding error.
00:46:13.400 Most of,
00:46:13.900 or a large part of this cost
00:46:15.540 is actually women's time
00:46:16.940 because we need to get them
00:46:17.940 into hospitals.
00:46:19.180 So it'll take more of their time.
00:46:22.100 So the real financial cost
00:46:23.680 is about $2.8 billion.
00:46:25.520 But the benefits are,
00:46:27.400 and these are just mind-blowingly big,
00:46:29.640 it means that we could avoid
00:46:31.300 161,000 women dying every year.
00:46:35.780 161,000 women dying in childbirth.
00:46:38.080 We could avoid 1.2 million kids dying.
00:46:40.420 So that's all those fragmented families.
00:46:42.340 That's all those kids
00:46:43.100 who lose their mothers.
00:46:44.260 That's like,
00:46:44.880 it's not just 161,000 deaths.
00:46:47.400 I mean, there's a cascade
00:46:48.260 of terrible problems
00:46:50.160 that emerge from that.
00:46:51.200 So those are young women
00:46:52.360 who are in the prime of their life,
00:46:53.820 mostly speaking.
00:46:55.300 A large number of them
00:46:56.540 are going to have other kids,
00:46:57.640 and so those kids
00:46:58.340 are going to be left bereft
00:46:59.260 of their mother.
00:46:59.980 And of course,
00:47:00.800 then there's the family breakup
00:47:02.080 that comes along
00:47:02.980 with the fact that
00:47:03.780 the young woman has died
00:47:05.440 and the tremendous grief
00:47:06.440 of the parents.
00:47:07.300 I mean,
00:47:07.920 so that's a cataclysm
00:47:09.280 that's going to involve
00:47:11.060 millions of people,
00:47:12.060 not the mere 160,000.
00:47:14.100 And so,
00:47:14.620 and that can all be prevented.
00:47:16.460 So we're basically saying
00:47:18.260 for $1,
00:47:20.060 you could develop,
00:47:20.900 and this,
00:47:21.700 of course,
00:47:21.920 is where economists
00:47:22.700 come across as crude
00:47:23.680 because we actually put
00:47:24.740 a value of saving a human life.
00:47:27.240 This is a very long conversation
00:47:28.660 about how you do that,
00:47:29.540 but we do that constantly
00:47:30.680 in human societies.
00:47:32.200 We decide whether we put
00:47:33.220 in a roundabout or not.
00:47:34.700 A roundabout will save people,
00:47:36.360 but it also costs money
00:47:37.620 and it also slows down traffic.
00:47:38.860 So how much
00:47:39.960 do we want to do that?
00:47:40.900 We make those decisions
00:47:41.900 all the time.
00:47:42.320 Well,
00:47:42.440 that's always that prioritization.
00:47:44.140 Yes.
00:47:44.660 And so we simply,
00:47:46.160 you know,
00:47:46.640 make that decision explicit
00:47:48.300 and we take all the costs,
00:47:49.960 all the benefits.
00:47:50.800 It turns out
00:47:51.320 for every dollar you spend,
00:47:52.800 you will do $87
00:47:54.060 of social good
00:47:55.580 in the developing world.
00:47:57.260 Why aren't we doing this?
00:47:58.420 This would be incredibly cheap
00:47:59.860 to do an amazing amount of good.
00:48:01.960 That's just one,
00:48:02.980 that's just the first of the 12.
00:48:04.240 Have projects
00:48:06.340 of the sort
00:48:07.620 that you envision
00:48:08.660 that are precisely targeted
00:48:10.920 to this problem,
00:48:12.300 where have they begun
00:48:13.180 to manifest themselves already?
00:48:15.080 There must be countries
00:48:15.840 that are walking
00:48:17.100 down this road already.
00:48:18.380 I know we have hospitals
00:48:19.300 in the West, obviously,
00:48:20.340 but I'm wondering specifically,
00:48:22.560 after your team
00:48:23.840 has highlighted the fact
00:48:25.040 that this is a possibility
00:48:26.840 and has this economic benefit,
00:48:28.440 are there jurisdictions
00:48:29.260 that have taken up the challenge?
00:48:30.640 I haven't seen that strongly.
00:48:32.860 I mean, so clearly,
00:48:34.180 in most policy areas,
00:48:36.000 they will say,
00:48:36.520 oh, and we should also do good
00:48:37.720 for, you know,
00:48:38.760 women that give birth.
00:48:39.860 They also vote,
00:48:40.760 so you also want to make sure
00:48:41.860 that they will vote for you.
00:48:43.280 So it's also one of the things
00:48:44.620 that you talk about.
00:48:45.620 I think what,
00:48:46.220 so we're just coming out
00:48:47.320 with this research right now,
00:48:48.600 so people still haven't heard about it,
00:48:50.340 but I think fundamentally
00:48:51.560 what we're trying to do
00:48:52.560 is to set the agenda
00:48:53.960 so that people will actually see,
00:48:55.880 oh, these 12 things
00:48:56.820 are really, really good.
00:48:58.040 I want to ask that
00:48:59.260 of my politician,
00:49:00.720 if you live in the poor part
00:49:03.160 of the world,
00:49:03.760 I want to ask that
00:49:04.860 of my development agency.
00:49:06.300 I want to ask that
00:49:07.620 of my rich position.
00:49:08.260 Why aren't we doing this?
00:49:09.420 To do this.
00:49:10.360 So we're simply,
00:49:11.500 you know,
00:49:12.700 fundamentally,
00:49:14.920 I'm a very optimistic person,
00:49:16.880 but I don't expect
00:49:18.100 that we're just sort of,
00:49:19.260 you know,
00:49:19.520 going to make the whole world right.
00:49:21.020 What we tend to say
00:49:22.400 is that we're simply
00:49:23.340 putting forth
00:49:24.100 these 12 amazing ideas,
00:49:25.520 and hopefully,
00:49:27.160 by putting those out,
00:49:28.200 we'll at least get,
00:49:29.520 I don't know,
00:49:30.360 six of them done,
00:49:31.740 and that would be an amazing.
00:49:32.960 Well, it's an invitational opportunity.
00:49:33.840 That would be an amazing opportunity.
00:49:34.580 Well, and you've got to not be cynical.
00:49:36.220 I mean,
00:49:36.980 the fact is,
00:49:38.360 it's not being
00:49:39.420 a straightforward matter
00:49:40.980 for people,
00:49:42.680 all of us,
00:49:43.520 to sort out
00:49:44.580 the panoply of problems
00:49:46.200 that confront us,
00:49:47.420 and 169 goals
00:49:49.560 isn't 10,000.
00:49:51.040 It's, you know,
00:49:51.580 it's already restricted
00:49:52.600 to some degree.
00:49:53.820 Restricting that further
00:49:54.740 has all sorts of,
00:49:55.620 there's all sorts of political
00:49:56.540 and conceptual difficulties,
00:49:57.940 and then,
00:49:58.700 we would all,
00:49:59.380 it's also useful
00:50:00.520 to understand that,
00:50:02.180 you know,
00:50:03.180 on the timescale
00:50:03.980 that you and I
00:50:04.560 would operate on,
00:50:05.500 if it took 15 years
00:50:06.740 to make any of this happen,
00:50:08.100 that would seem like
00:50:08.760 a long time,
00:50:09.460 but 15 years
00:50:10.280 is a drop in the ocean
00:50:11.640 on any reasonable
00:50:12.880 historical timescale,
00:50:14.100 and so it's possible
00:50:15.040 that these sorts of things
00:50:16.060 could happen
00:50:16.680 comparatively quickly
00:50:18.680 by historical standards,
00:50:20.280 even though they look like
00:50:21.080 they're crawling along to us.
00:50:22.300 But this wouldn't take that long.
00:50:24.200 It would, you know,
00:50:24.760 it would take a couple of years.
00:50:25.980 So this is really something
00:50:27.240 that's doable
00:50:28.080 very, very quickly.
00:50:30.300 It would probably not be doable
00:50:31.680 in one year,
00:50:32.200 but it could be done
00:50:33.020 in, say, five years.
00:50:33.780 Yeah, and do you think
00:50:34.640 the man or woman power
00:50:35.860 necessary to make this possible,
00:50:38.040 like, with regards
00:50:38.820 to the training of nurses
00:50:39.800 and doctors and so forth?
00:50:40.980 Oh, absolutely.
00:50:41.000 So there's plenty
00:50:42.160 of nurses available for this.
00:50:44.560 This is not a huge strain.
00:50:46.420 We're talking about
00:50:47.060 much less than 1%
00:50:48.260 of the nurse force,
00:50:49.380 so this is absolutely doable.
00:50:51.860 And again,
00:50:52.740 so the whole point here is
00:50:53.780 this is something
00:50:54.560 that our development agencies
00:50:55.820 could do.
00:50:56.380 This is something that,
00:50:57.220 you know,
00:50:57.580 Elon Musk or Bill Gates
00:50:58.940 could help fund.
00:51:00.440 I'm not saying that,
00:51:01.160 you know,
00:51:01.400 I'm not saying that they should.
00:51:03.380 It could be crowdfunded
00:51:04.060 for that matter.
00:51:04.780 Yes, but, you know,
00:51:05.240 we should get everybody involved
00:51:06.960 in saying,
00:51:07.820 look, let's spend these,
00:51:09.440 you know,
00:51:09.660 that was $2.8 billion,
00:51:11.880 but, you know,
00:51:12.240 the total bill of all the 12
00:51:13.880 is $35 billion.
00:51:15.420 Still a very, very low amount
00:51:16.980 compared to pretty much
00:51:18.160 everything else.
00:51:18.780 And do you think you guys
00:51:19.860 have detailed out,
00:51:20.840 so I was just,
00:51:21.660 this is just flashing
00:51:22.560 through my mind
00:51:23.180 as we were talking,
00:51:24.100 if, imagine that
00:51:25.400 you had a donor
00:51:26.240 that came up
00:51:26.920 with the amount of money
00:51:27.820 that was necessary
00:51:29.260 to make this a possibility.
00:51:30.980 Do you think
00:51:31.540 it would be possible,
00:51:33.120 do you know
00:51:33.860 which levers to pull
00:51:35.260 and strings to pull
00:51:38.820 to make this
00:51:39.880 actually happen in reality?
00:51:41.620 Like, has it been detailed out
00:51:42.760 at the level of plan?
00:51:43.680 So it's almost
00:51:44.880 been done at that level.
00:51:46.600 So first of all,
00:51:47.920 I'm not going to get the money.
00:51:50.760 We're not,
00:51:51.300 we're not,
00:51:52.040 I'm an academic in that sense.
00:51:53.220 Yeah, yeah.
00:51:53.780 We mapped out,
00:51:54.800 so this,
00:51:55.320 so in this particular case,
00:51:57.200 you would engage with,
00:51:58.820 obviously,
00:51:59.340 you would start
00:51:59.740 with some of the big countries,
00:52:00.840 India,
00:52:01.880 Nigeria,
00:52:02.840 those kinds of places
00:52:03.680 that have lots of,
00:52:04.880 of,
00:52:05.220 of women
00:52:06.040 that would benefit
00:52:07.400 from getting more,
00:52:08.220 B-Monk,
00:52:08.640 that would benefit
00:52:09.400 from getting more
00:52:10.300 of these opportunities,
00:52:11.860 and you would engage
00:52:13.200 with the governments
00:52:13.780 and say,
00:52:14.480 look,
00:52:14.980 you could probably do this
00:52:16.260 at this cost,
00:52:17.220 we'll give you this much money,
00:52:18.460 then you'll build these facilities,
00:52:19.880 you've got this many women in.
00:52:21.500 You'd set up those kinds
00:52:22.460 of contracts
00:52:23.020 with,
00:52:23.320 you know,
00:52:23.980 standards
00:52:24.500 and you'd see
00:52:25.180 if they could actually work.
00:52:26.800 Now,
00:52:27.100 some of these governments,
00:52:27.700 multiple places
00:52:28.520 and see what actually works.
00:52:28.640 And some of these governments
00:52:29.580 will somewhat fail.
00:52:31.420 Yeah.
00:52:31.540 So what we do is
00:52:33.080 we take realistic costs,
00:52:34.680 so we're actually assuming
00:52:35.740 some sort of failure,
00:52:37.320 you know,
00:52:37.560 reasonable failure,
00:52:38.780 but some governments
00:52:39.680 will just turn out
00:52:40.420 to be unreliable
00:52:41.600 and then you should
00:52:42.220 probably not do that there.
00:52:43.700 But yes,
00:52:44.280 you could do that
00:52:44.960 and you could do most of this
00:52:46.120 and obviously,
00:52:46.920 I'd love to help,
00:52:48.040 but this is,
00:52:48.740 I'm not a guy
00:52:49.820 that goes out
00:52:50.520 and makes sure
00:52:50.980 that we can build hospitals,
00:52:52.200 but I would love to help
00:52:53.240 with,
00:52:53.860 there's a lot of people
00:52:54.620 who know how to do this.
00:52:55.400 Right, right.
00:52:55.980 Okay,
00:52:56.280 so you talked about
00:52:57.260 provision of respiratory
00:52:58.800 emergency technology.
00:53:00.380 What other services
00:53:02.560 have to be delivered
00:53:03.640 to pregnant
00:53:04.820 and birthing mothers
00:53:06.220 and new infants?
00:53:07.680 So it's about medication,
00:53:09.420 so you can deal with
00:53:10.220 as I mentioned,
00:53:11.360 eclampsia and preeclampsia.
00:53:13.000 It's about kangaroo care,
00:53:14.920 so it's about getting,
00:53:16.100 it's a very,
00:53:16.980 very simple thing.
00:53:17.620 You just need to know
00:53:18.400 that you need to do it.
00:53:19.440 So you need to dry up the baby
00:53:22.400 and put it on the mother's skin.
00:53:24.180 We know that that actually
00:53:25.260 makes the baby
00:53:25.960 much less likely
00:53:26.880 to be sick
00:53:28.040 and possibly also
00:53:29.520 stunted later on.
00:53:32.340 Yeah, so it'll just
00:53:34.120 simply thrive more.
00:53:35.660 Placenta care,
00:53:36.640 there's a lot of other things,
00:53:37.720 and again,
00:53:38.100 I'm not a doctor,
00:53:39.000 so I read these
00:53:39.980 and my eyes slightly glaze over,
00:53:41.820 but it's a lot of simple things
00:53:43.420 that nurses know how to do,
00:53:45.440 and it's a lot of
00:53:46.380 the technological opportunities,
00:53:48.140 so it's very much about
00:53:49.220 you need a cesarean,
00:53:50.360 for instance,
00:53:51.100 that you can actually
00:53:52.480 have the expertise available,
00:53:53.900 and that's why we need them
00:53:54.740 in the institution,
00:53:55.820 rather than giving birth at home.
00:53:58.460 So these are very,
00:53:59.280 very simple things,
00:54:00.360 very cheap,
00:54:01.180 and incredible benefit.
00:54:02.200 So that's just the first one.
00:54:04.400 Okay, so that's number one.
00:54:05.560 Another 11 things
00:54:06.640 to talk about.
00:54:07.880 So let me take another thing
00:54:10.200 which we talked about
00:54:11.720 with nutrition.
00:54:12.940 So nutrition, obviously...
00:54:13.880 And is this number two?
00:54:15.180 This is actually two and three.
00:54:16.780 Oh, this is two and three.
00:54:17.760 Okay.
00:54:18.000 Because there are two different ways
00:54:19.460 to deal with this.
00:54:21.100 Obviously,
00:54:22.180 for people who are actually hungry,
00:54:24.520 so there's about 769 million people
00:54:28.540 who are hungry right now.
00:54:30.460 Which is a lot of people,
00:54:32.040 but a much smaller proportion of people
00:54:34.300 than there once was.
00:54:35.320 Absolutely.
00:54:36.180 So back in 1928,
00:54:38.800 so almost 100 years ago,
00:54:40.620 the League of Nations estimated
00:54:42.160 that at least two-thirds of humanity
00:54:44.760 was permanently starving.
00:54:46.740 Two-thirds.
00:54:47.400 Two-thirds.
00:54:47.780 More than two-thirds.
00:54:48.740 So that'd be five billion people now.
00:54:51.200 Well, yeah, so...
00:54:52.520 Yeah, more than...
00:54:53.160 Yeah, that's probably right.
00:54:54.420 So it's an outstanding number of people.
00:54:57.660 Now it's 10%.
00:54:59.200 That's still way too high
00:55:00.900 and we want to do something better.
00:55:01.840 It's a lot better than 66%.
00:55:03.240 Yes, it's a lot better, yes.
00:55:04.940 So we have come a long way,
00:55:07.060 but there's still much to do.
00:55:08.680 So there are two ways to do this.
00:55:10.040 One is,
00:55:10.680 and I'm gonna tell you about that one first.
00:55:12.800 This is the long-term view.
00:55:14.680 This is basically about
00:55:15.660 how do we make agriculture better?
00:55:17.820 So agriculture produced all the food
00:55:19.620 and basically the way
00:55:21.640 that you make development happen
00:55:23.480 is that we stop all working on farms.
00:55:26.000 Remember in rich countries,
00:55:27.640 one or two percent of all of us
00:55:30.280 make all the food.
00:55:31.780 Isn't that amazing?
00:55:32.620 I'm so happy that they're out there
00:55:33.940 doing that for me
00:55:34.780 because I'm not a farmer.
00:55:35.780 I wouldn't know how to do that.
00:55:36.720 Even though we're trying to do everything we can
00:55:38.280 to stop them at the moment.
00:55:39.840 Yes, but fundamentally,
00:55:41.680 the smart thing is
00:55:42.420 that we have a few percent
00:55:44.160 of people doing all the farming
00:55:45.560 and then everybody else
00:55:46.560 does something else productive.
00:55:48.060 That's how we got rich.
00:55:49.700 And in Malawi,
00:55:50.600 it's still about 80% of the population
00:55:52.660 that are farmers,
00:55:53.600 of the working population.
00:55:55.220 So what do you think about the objections?
00:55:57.900 There's romantic objections on that front
00:55:59.680 constantly that,
00:56:00.820 you know,
00:56:01.040 it would be better
00:56:01.520 to keep the local landholder on his farm
00:56:04.380 and that there's something wrong
00:56:06.040 with both industrialization
00:56:07.520 and urbanization
00:56:09.000 and the cities are blight on the landscape.
00:56:11.860 I mean,
00:56:11.980 what do you make of the romantic arguments
00:56:13.560 of that sort?
00:56:14.260 I think it's wonderful
00:56:15.680 that people are now so rich
00:56:17.460 that they can decide
00:56:18.540 that they want to go out
00:56:20.060 and live their life as farmers again.
00:56:22.860 I think that's wonderful and fine
00:56:24.880 and people are absolutely welcome to do that.
00:56:27.300 But we also know
00:56:28.420 that most people won't do it.
00:56:29.820 Most people actually prefer
00:56:31.360 to just have other people
00:56:32.600 produce their food for them.
00:56:33.940 Right.
00:56:34.220 And so this is the opportunity
00:56:36.080 of an industrialized society
00:56:37.860 that we actually have
00:56:39.100 a very efficient society
00:56:40.140 where people are so rich
00:56:41.680 they can afford to go back in time,
00:56:44.000 if you will.
00:56:44.380 Right.
00:56:44.620 That's fine,
00:56:45.100 but most of us are not going to do that.
00:56:45.780 And they're only doing that
00:56:46.600 in a false way anyways,
00:56:47.880 in some real sense.
00:56:48.600 Sure, sure.
00:56:48.860 Because the entire industrial landscape
00:56:50.640 is around them
00:56:51.340 to sustain them in that effort.
00:56:52.540 And yes,
00:56:53.280 so there's this wonderful guy
00:56:55.180 who tried to do everything for himself.
00:56:57.900 Yeah.
00:56:58.140 And it turns out
00:56:58.740 that's really, really hard.
00:56:59.840 He spent about a year
00:57:00.820 making a toaster.
00:57:03.180 It's really, really hard to do,
00:57:04.840 you know,
00:57:05.140 just simple stuff.
00:57:06.300 And it was terrible.
00:57:07.920 I saw a picture of it.
00:57:09.380 It was, you know,
00:57:09.660 like, oh my God,
00:57:11.020 this is not how we do things.
00:57:12.640 We do things by specializing.
00:57:14.580 You know,
00:57:14.820 you do one thing,
00:57:15.500 I do one thing.
00:57:16.420 You know,
00:57:16.520 we're all better off
00:57:17.660 by being specialized.
00:57:18.820 We'll get to that part
00:57:19.920 of the solution as well.
00:57:20.760 But fundamentally,
00:57:21.880 how do we make agriculture
00:57:23.220 produce more?
00:57:24.580 Well,
00:57:24.940 there's a lot of things.
00:57:25.880 You could get better irrigation.
00:57:27.300 You could get better,
00:57:28.140 more fertilizer.
00:57:29.620 You could get people
00:57:30.580 better educated.
00:57:31.780 It turns out that
00:57:32.280 that's very hard
00:57:33.100 and they're not
00:57:34.060 very well functioning.
00:57:35.460 So for instance,
00:57:36.180 irrigation,
00:57:36.860 it's very expensive.
00:57:38.400 So it'll probably deliver
00:57:39.820 a couple of dollars
00:57:40.600 back on the dollar.
00:57:41.620 It's not a bad idea,
00:57:42.800 but they don't work
00:57:43.740 all that well.
00:57:44.520 There's one thing though
00:57:45.640 that works incredibly well,
00:57:48.000 making seeds better.
00:57:50.220 Because even if you don't
00:57:51.560 have good access
00:57:53.160 to markets
00:57:54.480 or to irrigation
00:57:55.820 or you have corruption,
00:57:57.320 all that kind of stuff,
00:57:58.300 if this seed comes
00:57:59.620 and it produces more food
00:58:01.420 when you plant it,
00:58:02.580 it sort of comes out
00:58:03.620 automatically.
00:58:04.640 This is what the
00:58:05.400 grain...
00:58:05.680 If it's more drought resistant
00:58:08.100 or more salt resistant.
00:58:10.740 So remember,
00:58:11.840 this was the first
00:58:12.600 green revolution
00:58:13.380 back in the 1960s
00:58:15.020 and 70s.
00:58:15.620 This was Norman Borlaug
00:58:16.620 who later got a Nobel Prize
00:58:18.480 for basic...
00:58:19.400 And deserved it.
00:58:20.200 Totally deserved it.
00:58:21.180 He is one of the few people
00:58:22.560 on the planet
00:58:23.520 who can put on a CV
00:58:24.660 he saved a billion
00:58:26.120 people's lives.
00:58:27.260 How amazing is that
00:58:28.380 to be able to put on your CV?
00:58:30.220 And I just think
00:58:31.320 it's so amazing.
00:58:32.660 He basically made...
00:58:33.920 We had these long
00:58:35.060 variants of wheat
00:58:37.140 and corn and rice
00:58:38.600 that would grow very long
00:58:40.000 and then have a few seeds
00:58:41.080 up here.
00:58:41.640 What he basically found
00:58:42.800 was if you make it grow lower,
00:58:45.120 it uses less of its energy
00:58:46.720 on the stock
00:58:47.300 and so there will be
00:58:48.420 more stuff on the...
00:58:49.920 I'm not sure.
00:58:50.900 The kernels, right?
00:58:51.520 So there will be
00:58:52.320 more food on them.
00:58:53.340 The ratio of kernel
00:58:54.640 to stock...
00:58:55.280 You can see I'm not a farmer, right?
00:58:56.900 So fundamentally,
00:58:58.500 what that did was
00:58:59.540 it made food
00:59:00.660 much more available.
00:59:01.980 This is what saved India
00:59:03.180 and many other places
00:59:04.060 around the world.
00:59:05.500 But most of this
00:59:06.580 was focused
00:59:07.080 on rich world food.
00:59:08.440 So wheat
00:59:09.200 and corn
00:59:10.520 or maize
00:59:11.000 and rice.
00:59:12.620 We still need
00:59:13.480 to focus a lot more
00:59:14.640 on all the other
00:59:15.740 local things
00:59:16.420 that you and I
00:59:17.240 probably never eat,
00:59:18.900 maybe haven't even heard of.
00:59:20.300 Yams,
00:59:21.480 sorghum,
00:59:22.680 these kinds of things.
00:59:25.400 So we'd find
00:59:26.180 the 10 or 15
00:59:27.900 base food stocks,
00:59:29.260 whatever they are,
00:59:29.920 and then aim at something
00:59:30.640 like a 10% improvement
00:59:32.140 or a 15% improvement.
00:59:33.500 And we know
00:59:34.040 we can do that.
00:59:34.900 How do we know that?
00:59:36.200 So SCIAR,
00:59:37.120 the research groups
00:59:38.840 that actually did
00:59:39.520 the first green revolution,
00:59:41.680 constantly do this.
00:59:43.080 But they do this
00:59:44.000 with fairly little money.
00:59:46.600 And so little money
00:59:47.640 translates into
00:59:48.580 little efficiency gain.
00:59:50.440 We know that
00:59:51.100 if you spend more money,
00:59:52.200 we have lots of research
00:59:53.060 doing that.
00:59:53.560 Again,
00:59:53.840 we work with some
00:59:54.440 of the best researchers
00:59:55.800 in the area
00:59:56.500 who've documented
00:59:57.240 in the past
00:59:57.820 how much money
00:59:58.940 do you put through
00:59:59.840 and then how much
01:00:00.640 more gain
01:00:01.140 do you get
01:00:01.760 in agricultural output.
01:00:04.060 So how about
01:00:04.620 the argument,
01:00:05.240 well,
01:00:05.400 if we fed more mouths
01:00:06.540 more efficiently,
01:00:07.360 all that would happen
01:00:08.080 is that we'd have
01:00:08.740 many more mouths
01:00:09.520 to feed in the future.
01:00:11.400 Yeah.
01:00:11.860 I mean,
01:00:12.260 people will make
01:00:13.180 that argument,
01:00:13.840 but really what happens,
01:00:15.840 and we see this,
01:00:16.780 of course this requires us
01:00:18.440 to see development
01:00:19.340 in all kinds
01:00:20.640 of other areas.
01:00:22.020 But, you know,
01:00:22.660 so women need
01:00:23.600 to get more education.
01:00:25.360 They actually decide,
01:00:26.660 I'd rather have
01:00:27.460 an education
01:00:28.260 than a lot of kids.
01:00:29.420 Yeah.
01:00:29.680 If women have more
01:00:30.640 opportunity to do businesses,
01:00:32.240 they'll do business
01:00:33.280 rather than have
01:00:34.000 a lot of kids.
01:00:34.840 And we do this
01:00:35.640 in a lot of different ways.
01:00:36.880 If my kids survive more,
01:00:38.120 I don't need
01:00:38.720 to have as many.
01:00:39.600 Right, right.
01:00:40.060 So what we really see
01:00:41.180 is we start,
01:00:42.380 oh,
01:00:42.880 I don't have to work
01:00:43.940 as hard on the farm.
01:00:44.860 I can start my business
01:00:45.940 on the side.
01:00:46.840 Eventually,
01:00:47.120 I'll sell my farm,
01:00:48.380 or some people
01:00:49.180 will start doing the farming,
01:00:50.500 and others will go
01:00:51.360 to the city.
01:00:52.060 This is how you get
01:00:53.100 development.
01:00:53.660 Yeah, well,
01:00:53.960 one of the rules
01:00:55.060 seems to be
01:00:55.760 that as you increase
01:00:57.680 the degree
01:00:58.300 to which people
01:00:59.040 feel long-term security,
01:01:00.500 and this is especially
01:01:01.220 true for women,
01:01:02.540 you increase
01:01:03.380 the amount of effort
01:01:04.760 they will put in
01:01:05.620 per child,
01:01:06.560 and you decrease
01:01:07.260 the total number
01:01:08.100 of children.
01:01:08.840 That could in itself
01:01:09.920 become a problem
01:01:10.640 at some point.
01:01:11.300 But at least
01:01:12.640 it is a rejoinder
01:01:13.620 to the people
01:01:14.280 who think,
01:01:14.900 well,
01:01:15.360 if you put more
01:01:16.980 agar in the Petri dish,
01:01:19.440 you're just going to get
01:01:20.180 the yeast proliferating faster.
01:01:21.900 That isn't what seems
01:01:22.700 to happen at all.
01:01:23.500 And it's also the case,
01:01:24.960 and everyone listening
01:01:25.680 should know this,
01:01:26.480 is that all the reasonable
01:01:28.200 estimates for human population
01:01:29.980 indicate that we're going
01:01:30.900 to peak out at somewhere
01:01:31.880 between 9 billion and 10,
01:01:33.600 and then God only knows
01:01:35.000 what will happen after that,
01:01:36.100 or even if we last that long.
01:01:37.580 But it's clear,
01:01:38.700 at least it's clear to me,
01:01:39.780 and I think it's clear to you,
01:01:41.380 that we can sustain
01:01:43.240 9 billion people
01:01:44.480 on the planet indefinitely
01:01:45.660 if we had a clue.
01:01:47.120 And so the notion
01:01:47.840 that we're going to
01:01:48.580 multiply ourselves up
01:01:49.820 to something like 100 billion
01:01:51.080 and just eat the planet
01:01:52.120 right to the bedrock
01:01:53.040 is there's no evidence
01:01:54.180 whatsoever that
01:01:54.920 that's going to occur,
01:01:56.180 and plenty of evidence
01:01:57.360 to the contrary.
01:01:58.340 Yes.
01:01:59.020 A lot of...
01:02:00.020 Yeah, so fundamentally,
01:02:01.660 this absolutely just means
01:02:03.360 that we can stop
01:02:04.500 having kids
01:02:05.120 being really malnourished,
01:02:06.580 that we can stop
01:02:07.620 having as much hunger
01:02:08.760 on the planet,
01:02:09.400 and that we can start
01:02:10.640 having people
01:02:11.460 being better off.
01:02:12.820 So what this would
01:02:13.540 actually mean,
01:02:14.380 and this is what
01:02:14.940 the model shows,
01:02:15.840 is that we,
01:02:16.600 on average,
01:02:17.320 would avoid about
01:02:18.620 133 million people
01:02:20.720 being hungry.
01:02:21.500 So this doesn't
01:02:22.300 fix everything.
01:02:23.280 Right, so that's about
01:02:24.100 25% of the people
01:02:27.540 who are starving now.
01:02:28.660 Yeah, it's a little
01:02:29.520 less than that,
01:02:30.300 but obviously,
01:02:31.280 that would be coming down
01:02:32.220 because people get richer,
01:02:34.060 but it's about,
01:02:35.540 you know,
01:02:36.200 15, 20%.
01:02:38.120 But,
01:02:39.260 and this is the main
01:02:40.220 part of the benefit,
01:02:41.560 it will mean that
01:02:42.620 farmers can produce
01:02:43.900 more food,
01:02:44.860 which is great for farmers,
01:02:45.980 they will actually
01:02:46.560 get more money,
01:02:47.420 but it also means
01:02:48.680 the price for each
01:02:50.040 of one of these foods
01:02:51.060 go down,
01:02:52.040 which matters a lot more.
01:02:53.380 They can use less land.
01:02:53.920 Yes,
01:02:54.520 or eventually
01:02:55.460 will use less land.
01:02:56.640 Yeah, yeah,
01:02:56.900 per unit of food.
01:02:58.560 Oh, absolutely.
01:02:59.500 And what that means
01:03:00.520 is that people
01:03:02.060 who live in the cities
01:03:02.880 will have to pay less
01:03:04.040 for their food.
01:03:04.960 That means they can
01:03:05.640 buy more food
01:03:06.320 so they can actually
01:03:07.140 feed their kids,
01:03:08.220 and eventually
01:03:09.020 they can also
01:03:09.920 spend more money
01:03:10.700 on education
01:03:11.480 and all the other things
01:03:12.340 that matter.
01:03:13.100 So if you look
01:03:13.840 at that whole cost,
01:03:14.820 so what we're estimating
01:03:16.260 is the cost
01:03:17.120 is about $5.5 billion
01:03:18.640 a year.
01:03:19.520 Again,
01:03:19.880 not nothing.
01:03:20.440 And that would be primarily
01:03:20.900 to research enterprises?
01:03:22.120 This would be,
01:03:22.940 this would totally be
01:03:24.300 for research enterprises,
01:03:26.100 so it would be
01:03:27.060 for the SCIAR institutions,
01:03:29.420 so the,
01:03:29.980 And that is what?
01:03:31.200 These are the
01:03:32.060 international organizations
01:03:33.260 that have been around
01:03:33.900 since the first
01:03:34.760 green revolution
01:03:35.440 that are basically
01:03:36.360 consisting a lot
01:03:37.360 of plant researchers.
01:03:41.000 I'm not quite sure
01:03:41.840 exactly what their terminology are.
01:03:43.580 Are they agronomists?
01:03:44.500 Yeah,
01:03:44.860 probably.
01:03:46.860 And they,
01:03:48.000 you know,
01:03:48.280 they're the guys
01:03:48.960 who do all the different
01:03:49.940 kinds of seed varieties,
01:03:51.580 and, you know,
01:03:52.060 can there be more
01:03:52.960 salt resistant,
01:03:54.200 more drought resistant?
01:03:55.200 More vitamin A in rice.
01:03:56.660 All that kind of stuff.
01:03:57.480 Yeah.
01:03:57.960 And then we would
01:03:59.400 be giving it
01:04:00.360 to national research
01:04:01.460 organizations,
01:04:03.080 so they are
01:04:04.060 better clued
01:04:05.620 into what
01:04:06.180 specifically
01:04:07.080 does this
01:04:07.680 particular nation do?
01:04:08.440 So we start making
01:04:09.240 that a priority
01:04:09.880 like we've made
01:04:10.660 investigation into
01:04:11.580 climate change
01:04:12.200 a priority.
01:04:12.600 We say,
01:04:13.160 well,
01:04:13.280 no,
01:04:13.500 we're going to shift
01:04:14.200 the moral
01:04:15.740 spotlight
01:04:17.160 onto food development,
01:04:19.380 and the reason for that
01:04:20.120 is to ameliorate
01:04:20.860 absolute poverty,
01:04:21.880 and there's nothing in that
01:04:22.780 but benefit economic
01:04:23.840 and otherwise,
01:04:24.620 and so,
01:04:25.260 and it's not expensive.
01:04:26.540 And look,
01:04:27.380 we don't even need
01:04:28.500 to do a lot of spotlight.
01:04:30.060 This is $5.5 billion
01:04:32.120 a year.
01:04:32.980 This is a rounding area
01:04:34.020 in pretty much
01:04:34.600 everything we talk about.
01:04:35.580 So that's $0.50
01:04:36.420 for everybody
01:04:37.260 on the planet
01:04:37.860 per year
01:04:38.440 about approximately.
01:04:39.940 So it's,
01:04:41.640 well,
01:04:43.040 it's,
01:04:43.240 yeah,
01:04:43.520 $0.75
01:04:44.060 or something like that,
01:04:45.260 yeah.
01:04:45.620 Anyway,
01:04:46.080 so it's very,
01:04:46.960 very little money,
01:04:47.740 and it really means
01:04:49.220 that you would get
01:04:50.280 $184 billion
01:04:52.860 in benefits
01:04:54.080 both for producers,
01:04:55.700 for the farmers,
01:04:56.380 and for the consumers,
01:04:57.680 for the city dwellers.
01:04:58.480 So it's about
01:04:58.980 $30,
01:04:59.520 $34,
01:05:00.080 $31.
01:05:00.180 So you'd get $33
01:05:02.060 back on every dollar,
01:05:04.340 and you'd save
01:05:05.200 133 million people
01:05:06.880 from hunger.
01:05:09.140 How is that not
01:05:09.780 one of our top priorities?
01:05:10.820 Well,
01:05:10.980 that's a good question.
01:05:11.940 How is it not?
01:05:13.020 And I think it's simply
01:05:14.100 because it's kind of boring.
01:05:16.280 It doesn't come across
01:05:17.680 as one of those
01:05:18.340 heroic things
01:05:19.440 that just say,
01:05:20.100 yeah,
01:05:20.320 but why not?
01:05:21.420 It should.
01:05:22.680 Well,
01:05:23.160 it's strange,
01:05:23.860 because obviously
01:05:24.840 some of it's ignorance,
01:05:26.020 right?
01:05:26.200 You have to
01:05:26.980 zero in
01:05:28.400 on the right priorities,
01:05:29.340 and then you have to do
01:05:30.080 the economic analysis,
01:05:31.060 and not many people
01:05:32.620 have done that,
01:05:33.420 and so some of it
01:05:34.200 is that we just
01:05:35.040 didn't know.
01:05:36.100 And maybe that's,
01:05:37.080 God only knows
01:05:37.680 how much of it that is.
01:05:38.680 It might be a lot,
01:05:39.600 and it's also possible
01:05:41.360 that we also
01:05:43.600 haven't solved
01:05:44.280 the marketing problem,
01:05:45.460 right?
01:05:45.660 Because,
01:05:46.320 you know,
01:05:46.600 one of the things
01:05:47.100 I've learned
01:05:47.580 in the repeated businesses
01:05:48.820 that I've established,
01:05:49.840 and this was hard
01:05:51.400 won knowledge,
01:05:53.380 was that
01:05:53.920 the good idea
01:05:55.360 and the product
01:05:56.340 are like 5%
01:05:57.880 of the problem.
01:05:58.500 the communication
01:06:00.520 about the good idea
01:06:02.540 and the product
01:06:03.140 is like 95%
01:06:04.520 of the problem,
01:06:05.520 and part of the reason
01:06:06.280 for that,
01:06:06.680 you might be cynical
01:06:07.340 about that and say,
01:06:08.180 well,
01:06:08.240 that's all sales
01:06:08.860 and marketing.
01:06:09.400 It's like,
01:06:09.700 no,
01:06:09.880 it's communication,
01:06:10.820 because...
01:06:11.480 Craig,
01:06:12.700 Craig,
01:06:13.140 Craig.
01:06:13.760 Craig likes it warm.
01:06:15.260 Craig loves 71 degrees Fahrenheit.
01:06:18.160 Craig doesn't understand Fahrenheit,
01:06:20.140 but Craig does like to save money
01:06:21.780 when he's at work.
01:06:22.980 Craig also cares about
01:06:24.040 his carbon footprint.
01:06:25.340 He's so thoughtful,
01:06:26.340 that Craig.
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01:06:27.920 from Enbridge Sustain,
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01:06:42.720 Especially if your idea
01:06:43.700 is new and radical,
01:06:44.700 people don't even know
01:06:45.420 it exists.
01:06:46.800 And how the hell
01:06:47.700 are people going to purchase it
01:06:52.000 if they don't know about it?
01:06:53.180 And so I guess part of
01:06:55.000 what we've been working on too
01:06:56.200 is, well, exactly,
01:06:57.560 how do you go about
01:06:58.340 marketing this?
01:06:59.020 And how do you make it
01:06:59.880 an adventure?
01:07:00.680 And the adventure
01:07:01.580 is something like,
01:07:02.580 well, you know,
01:07:04.180 especially for young people,
01:07:05.340 they have a messianic urge
01:07:06.760 that emerges, you know,
01:07:08.400 in late adolescence
01:07:09.260 and runs into early adulthood
01:07:10.540 when they're trying
01:07:11.280 to sort out their lives.
01:07:12.360 They want a project
01:07:13.740 and they want a vision
01:07:15.160 that they can be involved in
01:07:16.440 that does have some
01:07:17.500 larger scale social significance.
01:07:19.920 And this seems to me
01:07:21.060 to be an exciting vision.
01:07:22.200 It's like, well,
01:07:23.140 how about we don't have
01:07:24.480 any direly poor people?
01:07:27.400 And then we see
01:07:28.120 how that goes.
01:07:29.180 And obviously that means,
01:07:31.180 well, we need to make sure
01:07:32.580 that babies don't die
01:07:33.600 when they're born
01:07:34.180 and neither do their mothers.
01:07:35.220 And then once they're born,
01:07:36.420 well, how about we provide
01:07:37.560 them with some food?
01:07:38.660 And if we can do that
01:07:39.680 in a way,
01:07:40.920 this is also a way
01:07:41.660 of getting rid
01:07:42.060 of the resistances.
01:07:43.020 It's like, well,
01:07:44.060 if you can improve
01:07:44.840 the seed stock
01:07:45.640 so that crops
01:07:46.740 are more pesticide resistant,
01:07:48.300 which you can,
01:07:48.980 or more pest resistant,
01:07:50.800 which you can do,
01:07:51.620 then you can use
01:07:52.420 less pesticide,
01:07:53.620 you can increase
01:07:55.000 the yield per acre
01:07:56.440 and so that uses
01:07:57.200 less farmland,
01:07:58.440 it's like,
01:07:59.100 why wouldn't the greens
01:08:00.100 be absolutely 100%
01:08:01.640 on board with this as well
01:08:02.820 if they could drop
01:08:03.540 the zero-sum presupposition
01:08:05.060 and, you know,
01:08:05.620 the anti-extra mouse
01:08:06.760 to feed idea?
01:08:07.880 It's like, well,
01:08:08.680 we serve women
01:08:09.600 when they're the most vulnerable
01:08:11.020 and now we serve children
01:08:12.420 when they're the most vulnerable
01:08:13.520 and there's no downside
01:08:14.740 to that.
01:08:15.220 There's just upsides
01:08:16.000 to that.
01:08:16.340 Sounds like a perfectly
01:08:17.040 good adventure to me.
01:08:18.020 And I think that is exactly,
01:08:19.740 that's also what I'm trying
01:08:21.260 to do here on this podcast,
01:08:22.900 that we're actually trying
01:08:23.720 to get people
01:08:24.220 enthusiastic about it.
01:08:25.400 I'm also writing about this
01:08:26.700 in 35 papers around the world
01:08:28.880 and I'm writing a book
01:08:30.320 about this.
01:08:30.900 So I'm trying to get
01:08:31.940 that exact excitement.
01:08:33.700 It doesn't mean
01:08:34.680 we shouldn't also focus
01:08:36.400 on other problems,
01:08:37.240 but simply we're saying,
01:08:38.760 why don't we do this first?
01:08:39.720 And what's the book?
01:08:40.600 The book that you just referred to?
01:08:41.480 The book is going to be called
01:08:43.880 Best Things First.
01:08:45.460 Best Things First, yeah.
01:08:46.520 So, yeah,
01:08:46.940 it's about these 12 amazing ideas
01:08:48.800 that can basically fix
01:08:50.300 a lot of problems
01:08:51.880 that can make the world,
01:08:53.340 the life much better
01:08:54.680 for the world's poorest
01:08:55.640 and it can also fix
01:08:57.160 our global problems.
01:08:58.980 When does that come out,
01:08:59.800 do you think?
01:09:00.200 Sustainable development goals.
01:09:01.160 So in the next month and a half.
01:09:02.880 Okay, okay.
01:09:03.640 And so it's the end of February
01:09:04.800 right now,
01:09:05.400 so it'll be like mid-April?
01:09:08.000 Mid-April, yeah.
01:09:08.680 Mid-April,
01:09:08.880 something like that.
01:09:09.640 So everybody can,
01:09:10.520 Best Things First,
01:09:11.300 you guys can keep an eye out
01:09:12.400 for that,
01:09:12.780 but, you know,
01:09:13.220 I'll make sure that I mention
01:09:14.340 it continually too.
01:09:15.560 Brilliant.
01:09:16.040 Yeah, yeah, that's good.
01:09:16.600 The other thing for nutrition,
01:09:18.280 so obviously it's great to say
01:09:19.860 we're going to make
01:09:20.440 much better food
01:09:21.140 for you guys in 20 years,
01:09:22.400 but if you're hungry right now,
01:09:23.900 it kind of doesn't help, right?
01:09:25.460 So we're also looking at
01:09:26.620 how do you actually
01:09:27.280 get food right now?
01:09:29.320 So the sort of tendency
01:09:32.220 is to say,
01:09:32.800 well, we should just hand out food.
01:09:34.300 It turns out that
01:09:35.140 that's very prone to corruption.
01:09:37.260 It's fairly expensive.
01:09:38.660 It's hard to decide
01:09:39.520 who should actually get
01:09:40.480 medical farmers?
01:09:41.320 Yes.
01:09:42.060 If you hand it out for free,
01:09:43.420 it actually generates
01:09:44.780 a lot of negative feedbacks
01:09:47.000 for farmers.
01:09:47.760 So what we're looking at
01:09:49.060 are the effective ways.
01:09:50.220 So one effective way,
01:09:51.940 or probably the most effective way,
01:09:54.880 is by realizing
01:09:55.860 that the most important years
01:09:57.580 when you need food
01:09:58.780 are the first,
01:10:00.160 what they call,
01:10:00.780 the first thousand days.
01:10:02.000 So the nine months
01:10:02.940 in the mom
01:10:03.720 and the first two years.
01:10:05.620 because that's where
01:10:07.240 your brain is being developed.
01:10:08.560 That's basically
01:10:09.220 where the tracks
01:10:09.920 for the rest of your life
01:10:10.900 is being laid.
01:10:12.440 And so right now,
01:10:13.760 almost everyone in the world,
01:10:15.400 almost all pregnant moms
01:10:17.460 get folic acid and iron.
01:10:19.320 That's good
01:10:19.860 because that actually avoids
01:10:21.100 anemia and some birth defects.
01:10:23.500 But we could do much more.
01:10:24.780 So what we're investigating,
01:10:26.000 this is the World Health Organization
01:10:27.600 recommendation,
01:10:28.580 but there's another one
01:10:29.420 that's underway
01:10:30.080 that shows
01:10:31.180 that you could actually
01:10:32.080 replace this pill
01:10:33.100 with another pill
01:10:34.540 that has a lot more vitamins.
01:10:36.620 So basically a vitamin A
01:10:38.000 and B1, B2, B6, B12,
01:10:40.980 and, you know, on and on.
01:10:42.240 So 13 more things.
01:10:43.880 What that would do would,
01:10:45.520 it would cost very little.
01:10:46.740 It's already being produced.
01:10:47.960 So it's basically switching out
01:10:49.740 one pill for the other.
01:10:50.840 Yeah.
01:10:51.180 And it would cost very little,
01:10:52.780 but it would mean
01:10:53.940 that the mom
01:10:54.780 would be less likely
01:10:56.200 to give birth
01:10:56.960 either with low birth weight
01:10:58.380 or early birth.
01:10:59.440 Yeah.
01:10:59.580 Both of which
01:11:00.140 have negative consequences
01:11:01.760 down the line.
01:11:02.320 Cascading expenses
01:11:03.460 and decrease
01:11:04.200 in eventual productivity.
01:11:05.900 Exactly.
01:11:06.460 And likewise,
01:11:08.020 calcium,
01:11:08.820 those are big tablets.
01:11:10.200 They're more costly,
01:11:11.560 and we're not giving
01:11:12.920 to most pregnant moms.
01:11:15.020 We should,
01:11:15.740 and that would also
01:11:16.580 save a lot of children
01:11:19.680 from being born
01:11:21.640 with low birth weight.
01:11:23.000 It turns out
01:11:23.660 that if you do this,
01:11:25.140 you could probably
01:11:25.820 do about $30
01:11:26.840 back in the dollar
01:11:28.040 for about $300 million.
01:11:30.180 Then at the same time,
01:11:32.320 we're also investigating
01:11:33.280 there's a way
01:11:34.440 to give more food
01:11:36.460 to kids at low cost,
01:11:38.440 which is if you tell moms
01:11:41.140 that it's a great idea
01:11:42.740 to feed your child well.
01:11:44.720 You'd imagine
01:11:45.440 that most moms
01:11:46.300 would know this,
01:11:47.000 but actually,
01:11:47.700 they lack the knowledge
01:11:49.540 of how you feed them well.
01:11:51.360 We see a lot of kids
01:11:52.860 that even in well-placed families
01:11:54.920 that are still not well-fed.
01:11:57.860 And how would you define
01:11:59.140 well-fed in this context?
01:12:00.380 So it's a question
01:12:01.720 of saying that you have
01:12:02.500 high stunting rates.
01:12:04.080 So that's one way
01:12:04.980 of measuring,
01:12:05.680 that you're not as tall
01:12:06.740 as you should be
01:12:07.620 compared to your age.
01:12:09.460 It's one of the best,
01:12:10.800 simplest ways of measuring.
01:12:12.440 We know that
01:12:12.920 if you're stunted,
01:12:13.700 there's a good chance
01:12:14.480 that you're also going
01:12:15.200 to get less developed
01:12:16.100 and hence you'll be
01:12:16.980 less productive
01:12:17.680 in your life.
01:12:18.480 Yeah, well,
01:12:18.880 if you're stunted
01:12:19.540 because brain development
01:12:21.420 is so complex
01:12:22.220 and so energy
01:12:23.000 and resource expensive
01:12:24.260 compared to the rest
01:12:25.260 of physiological tissue
01:12:26.360 that if you're stunted
01:12:27.760 in the broad sense,
01:12:29.560 you're also going
01:12:30.120 to be stunted neurologically.
01:12:31.600 And so that's,
01:12:32.440 and even small decrements
01:12:33.940 in cognitive ability,
01:12:35.200 which is directly related
01:12:36.320 to neurological integrity,
01:12:37.700 have walloping effects
01:12:38.860 on long-term productivity.
01:12:40.720 You might think,
01:12:41.180 well, productivity
01:12:41.740 isn't everything.
01:12:42.800 It's like,
01:12:43.700 well,
01:12:44.820 first of all,
01:12:45.420 that's debatable.
01:12:46.320 And second of all,
01:12:47.280 okay,
01:12:47.580 perhaps it's not
01:12:48.320 spiritual development,
01:12:49.940 although it probably is.
01:12:51.880 But all things considered,
01:12:53.580 why wouldn't you want
01:12:54.500 people to be more efficient
01:12:55.820 in the use of their labor
01:12:57.680 rather than less efficient?
01:12:58.740 And it also shows
01:12:59.860 the limits of what it means
01:13:01.000 to be an economist
01:13:01.740 because we're only looking
01:13:03.040 at it in the way of saying,
01:13:04.620 okay,
01:13:04.960 so you become smarter,
01:13:06.460 that means you become
01:13:07.880 more productive,
01:13:08.540 that means you get
01:13:09.240 a higher income.
01:13:10.280 Yeah.
01:13:10.700 We look at that higher income,
01:13:12.200 but clearly,
01:13:13.260 you being smarter
01:13:14.180 is probably something
01:13:15.460 that also means
01:13:16.300 that you will have
01:13:17.200 a better life
01:13:17.860 in so many other ways.
01:13:18.700 Well, that's actually clearer.
01:13:19.780 That relationship
01:13:21.340 between well-being
01:13:22.300 and cognitive power
01:13:23.240 is pretty positive.
01:13:24.380 Well, not merely,
01:13:25.900 not least,
01:13:26.640 because if you have
01:13:28.180 higher general
01:13:28.840 cognitive ability,
01:13:29.720 you tend just
01:13:30.660 to be more successful
01:13:31.920 at everything you do.
01:13:33.680 And the reason
01:13:34.320 for that fundamentally
01:13:35.280 is because you can process
01:13:36.820 more units of information
01:13:38.360 per unit of time.
01:13:39.680 Yeah.
01:13:39.920 And so obviously
01:13:40.720 that's,
01:13:41.540 obviously that's better
01:13:42.920 because it's tied
01:13:44.680 into the very definition
01:13:45.920 of better.
01:13:46.680 Yes.
01:13:47.080 And at least,
01:13:48.280 again,
01:13:48.440 most of the people
01:13:49.600 that we're debating with,
01:13:50.660 most of the people
01:13:51.140 who are watching this podcast
01:13:52.920 would probably not want to say,
01:13:55.360 oh, I'd actually think
01:13:56.360 it would be better
01:13:56.920 if you were less.
01:13:57.980 Right.
01:13:58.380 If you're a little more stunted.
01:13:59.740 Yes.
01:14:00.400 Shorter people have
01:14:01.320 a smaller carbon footprint.
01:14:03.500 Oh, there you go.
01:14:03.800 Yeah, yeah.
01:14:04.360 Anyway,
01:14:04.740 so we estimate
01:14:06.260 this will cost about
01:14:07.220 $1.4 billion in total,
01:14:08.940 all these things
01:14:09.540 we just talked about,
01:14:10.540 and it'll generate benefits
01:14:11.680 about $35 billion a year.
01:14:14.180 Most of it.
01:14:14.680 And so when you're educating women,
01:14:16.360 what are you telling them exactly?
01:14:18.040 So you're basically,
01:14:19.380 you have a community health worker
01:14:25.160 that comes out,
01:14:26.200 visit the woman,
01:14:27.400 so she has a lot of people
01:14:28.640 in the same neighborhood.
01:14:29.840 She'll come out,
01:14:30.680 visit the woman
01:14:31.360 for half an hour,
01:14:32.620 go through,
01:14:33.200 what is it that you feed your child?
01:14:34.840 Yeah.
01:14:34.960 Maybe you should feed it less of the,
01:14:36.380 oh, are you giving sugar
01:14:37.600 all this early?
01:14:39.020 No, that's not a good idea.
01:14:40.240 You should do more of that.
01:14:40.980 So it's just basic.
01:14:42.140 It's very, very basic stuff.
01:14:43.660 And then she comes
01:14:44.700 and visit nine times
01:14:45.720 and we've estimated
01:14:46.560 what's the cost of that.
01:14:47.700 Yeah.
01:14:47.900 And this is based
01:14:49.120 on a lot of different studies
01:14:50.260 that have shown
01:14:50.800 that you actually get less stunning
01:14:52.180 when you do more of this teaching.
01:14:54.900 Now, the women also have to pay
01:14:56.680 for the food
01:14:57.500 because you're assuming
01:14:59.360 that they have
01:15:00.120 that extra capacity
01:15:01.280 so they can,
01:15:02.320 but the food is still incorporated
01:15:03.980 in the cost of our calculation.
01:15:05.660 Yeah.
01:15:05.820 But the beautiful thing is
01:15:07.520 we're not actually
01:15:08.420 have to pay for the food.
01:15:10.260 We only have to pay
01:15:11.580 for the education of it.
01:15:13.360 So we don't have to worry about-
01:15:14.680 Okay, why?
01:15:15.360 So, well,
01:15:16.700 because that's by design.
01:15:18.180 You could have one
01:15:19.020 where you also hand out the food,
01:15:21.060 but that becomes much harder
01:15:22.400 and you get more corruption.
01:15:24.100 Right, right, right.
01:15:24.300 But if you just do the education,
01:15:26.100 you get less benefits,
01:15:27.900 but you get much less cost
01:15:29.320 and much less corruption.
01:15:29.960 Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
01:15:30.560 So I'm simply saying
01:15:31.260 this is the more effective-
01:15:32.220 So it's partly a redistribution
01:15:33.200 of available resources
01:15:34.360 at the micro level.
01:15:35.300 It's only a redistribution
01:15:36.720 that's simply telling,
01:15:37.960 especially the moms,
01:15:40.960 you can feed your kid better.
01:15:42.540 That will be great for your kid.
01:15:44.160 And the moms will respond
01:15:45.380 partly by saying,
01:15:46.340 okay, I'm going to,
01:15:47.220 you know,
01:15:47.380 spend a little less at the cinema
01:15:48.780 and give them a little more food.
01:15:51.400 I'm joking.
01:15:52.140 I don't know what they're going to decide.
01:15:54.480 But fundamentally,
01:15:55.740 that means at very low cost,
01:15:57.480 but we are incorporating the cost
01:15:59.160 that she's now spending
01:16:00.040 on the food for a child,
01:16:02.420 but she does it
01:16:03.400 very much more effectively
01:16:04.420 than we could ever have done.
01:16:05.760 So you're really looking at
01:16:07.040 interventions that are
01:16:08.940 as minimal as possible
01:16:10.420 that produce the fewest
01:16:12.200 cascading negative consequences
01:16:15.020 and that leverage.
01:16:16.160 We're not looking at the most,
01:16:18.320 the cheapest ones,
01:16:19.420 but we're looking at
01:16:20.180 for the most effective ones,
01:16:21.880 right?
01:16:22.080 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
01:16:22.200 So that will often be
01:16:23.220 things that cost fairly little,
01:16:25.020 that have very little
01:16:26.040 corruption potential
01:16:27.760 and inefficient potential.
01:16:29.840 For instance,
01:16:30.260 if you hand out food,
01:16:31.500 so I saw this
01:16:32.560 when I visited
01:16:33.400 with the food minister
01:16:34.560 in India,
01:16:36.320 you know,
01:16:37.300 it's politically
01:16:38.800 very advantageous
01:16:40.140 to say,
01:16:40.560 I'm going to give out food.
01:16:41.580 Yeah.
01:16:41.840 But everybody kind of know
01:16:42.960 by now
01:16:43.460 that what that actually means
01:16:44.840 is you're going to give someone
01:16:46.080 a lot of money
01:16:46.860 to buy some food
01:16:48.740 and hand it out
01:16:49.500 to the poor.
01:16:50.300 They're going to take
01:16:51.060 a lot of the money,
01:16:51.920 they're going to use
01:16:52.580 some of it for food,
01:16:53.640 and then they'll buy
01:16:54.620 the worst food
01:16:55.380 that you could possibly get.
01:16:56.300 So you end up
01:16:56.820 with these incredibly
01:16:57.840 almost unedible biscuits
01:16:59.800 that unless you're
01:17:01.440 really, really hungry,
01:17:02.560 you're just not going
01:17:03.140 to eat it.
01:17:03.620 Right, right.
01:17:04.140 So there's a lot
01:17:05.280 of loss in this,
01:17:06.300 whereas of course
01:17:06.820 if you just tell the woman
01:17:07.840 you should feed your kid better
01:17:09.500 and you should possibly
01:17:10.300 give him more.
01:17:10.660 And this is what it means.
01:17:11.360 Yes.
01:17:12.000 Then you're more likely
01:17:13.440 to actually have the woman
01:17:14.940 make sure she actually buys this,
01:17:16.880 but she buys it cheaply,
01:17:18.260 and she, you know,
01:17:19.340 she feeds her.
01:17:20.580 Right, and you leave
01:17:21.200 that decision-making power
01:17:22.440 in her hands too,
01:17:23.520 which is also appropriate
01:17:24.660 if you're looking at what,
01:17:26.020 efficient use
01:17:26.800 of distributed resources.
01:17:28.260 It's not so top-down that way.
01:17:29.960 Exactly.
01:17:30.480 Right.
01:17:30.920 So those are the first three.
01:17:32.280 Okay, yeah.
01:17:33.140 The first three solutions.
01:17:34.460 So let me just move on
01:17:35.800 to the fourth.
01:17:36.720 And as you also realize,
01:17:38.320 these are very, very desperate,
01:17:39.720 disparate?
01:17:40.880 Disparate?
01:17:41.560 Disparate.
01:17:42.360 It sounds like desperate to me,
01:17:43.640 but that's not what it is, right?
01:17:44.980 Disparate things,
01:17:46.620 because, you know,
01:17:47.120 there are a lot of different ways
01:17:48.180 that we can make
01:17:48.980 better use of resources.
01:17:51.200 So we talked about corruption before.
01:17:54.000 In general,
01:17:54.640 we don't really know well
01:17:55.960 how to fix corruption,
01:17:57.060 but there is one way
01:17:58.160 that we found
01:17:59.040 that you can dramatically
01:18:00.260 reduce corruption.
01:18:01.440 So this is in the thing
01:18:03.980 that's called e-procurement,
01:18:05.140 electronic procurement.
01:18:06.380 Sounds incredibly boring,
01:18:07.960 but when you think about it,
01:18:09.860 the biggest spending
01:18:11.320 in most countries
01:18:12.500 is actually on procurement.
01:18:14.320 So you buy anything
01:18:15.140 from pens to roads,
01:18:16.700 and roads obviously
01:18:17.500 being much more expensive.
01:18:19.060 That's the main part.
01:18:19.980 Procurement essentially
01:18:20.460 is large-scale purchasing.
01:18:22.220 Purchasing from governments.
01:18:24.440 So in developing countries
01:18:26.260 or in poor countries,
01:18:27.340 the poorest half of the world,
01:18:28.820 it's about half
01:18:29.600 of the government budget
01:18:31.480 that's spent
01:18:32.140 on purchasing big stuff.
01:18:34.240 Yeah.
01:18:34.420 And it's obviously
01:18:35.200 hugely corrupt.
01:18:36.380 Right.
01:18:37.200 So one of the ways
01:18:39.720 that you can avoid
01:18:40.540 some of that corruption
01:18:41.380 is by basically
01:18:42.640 putting these bids up
01:18:43.860 on what is essentially eBay.
01:18:46.620 Right.
01:18:46.880 You make a website for this,
01:18:50.000 and we've known this
01:18:51.180 for a long time
01:18:52.100 for a lot of different countries
01:18:53.440 that if you do that,
01:18:55.580 it becomes harder
01:18:56.400 to be corrupt.
01:18:58.880 There'll still be some corruption,
01:19:00.300 but you get less corrupt.
01:19:01.600 You actually get higher quality
01:19:02.880 because more people hear about it,
01:19:04.360 and you get lower prices.
01:19:06.940 And that's, of course,
01:19:07.600 what really means
01:19:08.300 that you can get more
01:19:09.500 for your money
01:19:10.280 in a government.
01:19:12.080 And have there been places
01:19:13.080 that have implemented this?
01:19:13.740 Absolutely.
01:19:14.360 There's lots of places.
01:19:15.420 So we work with Bangladesh,
01:19:17.820 who's done it.
01:19:18.800 Ukraine has done it.
01:19:19.940 It actually helped Ukraine
01:19:20.860 in a totally different way
01:19:21.920 when the war broke out
01:19:23.080 because it's very, very quick.
01:19:24.760 They could actually start
01:19:25.880 asking for other resources
01:19:27.460 through the e-procurement system
01:19:29.340 very, very quickly,
01:19:30.160 and obviously,
01:19:30.740 they need a lot more war-related.
01:19:32.680 So you put out, like,
01:19:33.540 a statement of request,
01:19:34.780 and then you invite submissions?
01:19:37.100 Invite local businesses
01:19:38.560 to bid on this.
01:19:39.820 So in Bangladesh,
01:19:40.940 it used to be
01:19:41.840 that, you know,
01:19:42.700 you would put this request up
01:19:45.120 and some official publication,
01:19:47.900 and then you'd have to come in
01:19:49.040 with a sealed envelope
01:19:49.980 in a particular government office
01:19:51.500 for this bid.
01:19:53.220 But the guys in this local area
01:19:54.740 had already, you know,
01:19:55.500 they already decided,
01:19:57.660 you're gonna get that bid.
01:19:58.240 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
01:19:58.920 And so what they actually did was-
01:20:00.460 You get nepotism
01:20:01.020 under the circumstances,
01:20:02.020 certainly, or dynasty.
01:20:03.080 So they actually put up
01:20:04.520 goons outside the office
01:20:06.020 so you couldn't physically
01:20:07.300 come in with your bid.
01:20:08.860 And that's how they, you know,
01:20:10.620 got a lot of extra money.
01:20:12.140 With an e-procurement system,
01:20:14.360 that becomes much, much harder.
01:20:16.400 Right.
01:20:16.600 Sure, you can still do that.
01:20:17.780 But we know,
01:20:18.680 and we've done the testing,
01:20:20.300 we know that it actually,
01:20:21.460 on average,
01:20:22.000 reduces prices by 6.75%.
01:20:24.820 And because this is such
01:20:26.580 a lot of money,
01:20:27.600 and because this is very, very cheap,
01:20:29.060 so we estimate the total cost-
01:20:30.540 Right, so that's a 3% improvement
01:20:31.980 in the budgets
01:20:32.680 in the poor countries
01:20:33.960 overall, given-
01:20:35.400 So, and, you know,
01:20:36.900 the finance minister
01:20:37.700 in Bangladesh loved it
01:20:38.780 because it was just, you know,
01:20:39.740 basically free money for him.
01:20:41.400 Right, right.
01:20:41.720 And so we estimate
01:20:43.920 about 30 countries
01:20:45.100 still need to do this,
01:20:46.460 and they could do it
01:20:47.580 for the cost, annual cost.
01:20:49.600 So there's a lot of phasing costs,
01:20:51.480 but they're very, very cheap.
01:20:52.480 You need to educate
01:20:53.580 hundreds of thousands
01:20:54.940 of bureaucrats.
01:20:56.200 But again, that's fairly cheap,
01:20:57.420 and you need to, you know,
01:20:58.400 sustain this all the way through.
01:20:59.740 It'll cost about $72 million,
01:21:01.960 so virtually nothing per year.
01:21:04.260 The benefit is that
01:21:05.860 they will be about $10 billion.
01:21:08.220 Right, well, and you-
01:21:09.280 So how do you calculate
01:21:10.560 the knock-on benefits
01:21:11.760 of actually effectively
01:21:13.040 distributing money
01:21:14.080 instead of to criminals
01:21:15.740 to the people
01:21:16.980 who can actually do the work?
01:21:18.320 Because you can imagine
01:21:19.060 there's got to be
01:21:19.540 a multiplier effect of that, too.
01:21:21.180 Because you want to set up
01:21:22.060 your society so that
01:21:23.320 the financial rewards
01:21:25.080 are delivered to the people
01:21:26.220 who actually produce real goods, right?
01:21:29.120 And-
01:21:29.500 We had a whole conversation about that.
01:21:31.840 We decided not to include that,
01:21:33.740 so this is an underestimate,
01:21:35.320 if anything.
01:21:35.720 Okay, okay, okay.
01:21:36.160 Because clearly,
01:21:36.640 if you have more money,
01:21:37.920 you could actually build more schools,
01:21:39.540 or you could get better hospitals,
01:21:41.440 and that would have
01:21:42.380 its own knock-on effect.
01:21:43.960 But in some sense,
01:21:44.820 that's an unreasonable extra way.
01:21:47.320 This is already so good,
01:21:48.920 you don't need to make it
01:21:50.100 more fantastic.
01:21:51.100 Right, right.
01:21:51.540 Yeah, it simply delivers
01:21:52.920 an enormous amount of benefit
01:21:54.200 at very low cost.
01:21:55.520 Again, this is one of the things
01:21:56.840 we should be doing.
01:21:57.940 So we've covered
01:21:58.760 early childhood
01:22:01.180 and birth intervention.
01:22:02.500 We've covered nutrition.
01:22:03.920 We've covered corruption reduction.
01:22:07.220 And now-
01:22:08.740 And agricultural research.
01:22:09.680 Yes, agricultural research and reform.
01:22:11.620 Yes, exactly.
01:22:12.460 And now we're going to switch
01:22:13.900 to topic five,
01:22:14.940 which is education.
01:22:15.920 Education, yes.
01:22:16.740 So look,
01:22:17.780 we spent the last couple decades
01:22:19.600 getting all kids into schools.
01:22:22.900 And that's great,
01:22:23.860 because then they have a chance
01:22:25.280 to learn.
01:22:26.140 But unfortunately,
01:22:27.020 many places in the world,
01:22:28.840 kids learn almost nothing.
01:22:31.140 And so just getting them
01:22:32.240 into school is not enough.
01:22:33.420 You actually need to learn in there.
01:22:35.860 And that's the next problem.
01:22:37.220 The learning crisis,
01:22:38.620 as they call it,
01:22:39.500 is basically that
01:22:40.880 a large part of the world's
01:22:43.560 kids' primary school students
01:22:46.420 don't learn anything.
01:22:47.820 And so that means
01:22:48.400 they don't become literate,
01:22:49.600 for example.
01:22:50.500 What are the basic measures?
01:22:51.920 The point is,
01:22:53.100 we're very focused on literacy.
01:22:54.660 And it actually turns out
01:22:55.940 that we're teaching
01:22:56.580 almost everyone
01:22:57.320 to read a word.
01:22:59.680 But they cannot string
01:23:00.760 these words together
01:23:01.640 and actually make a sentence.
01:23:02.800 So I'll give you one example.
01:23:03.000 So they can't get to
01:23:03.660 the point of meaning.
01:23:04.860 Exactly.
01:23:05.580 So we have PISA studies
01:23:08.620 in rich countries
01:23:09.420 that sort of showcase
01:23:11.220 how much do you learn.
01:23:13.420 But in poor countries,
01:23:14.620 we don't have that.
01:23:15.280 But there's some parts of it
01:23:16.700 where you've actually asked
01:23:17.760 the same kind of questions
01:23:18.680 in a lot of different countries.
01:23:20.200 And they show
01:23:20.880 very, very poor results.
01:23:22.780 So let me just give you
01:23:23.880 one sort of reading experience.
01:23:26.020 They have to read
01:23:27.320 the following sentence.
01:23:29.220 Vijay has a red hat,
01:23:31.720 a blue shirt,
01:23:32.880 and yellow socks.
01:23:34.500 What color is the hat?
01:23:37.060 Right.
01:23:37.900 It's red, by the way.
01:23:38.900 But it turns out
01:23:40.240 80% of all kids
01:23:42.020 in the developing world
01:23:43.280 at 10 years old
01:23:44.360 can't answer this question.
01:23:46.600 Now, is the initial sentence
01:23:49.180 there with the question
01:23:50.280 or do they have to read it?
01:23:51.120 Yeah, yeah, yeah.
01:23:51.620 It's there.
01:23:52.280 So they don't know
01:23:53.180 how to refer back
01:23:54.160 to the sentence
01:23:54.640 to gather the information.
01:23:55.320 I'm not sure they actually know.
01:23:57.320 So they know that
01:23:58.700 there's red in there somewhere,
01:24:00.140 but there's also blue
01:24:00.980 and they also read yellow.
01:24:02.640 So there's no sense of...
01:24:05.160 They didn't understand the sentence.
01:24:06.480 Basic comprehension test.
01:24:07.840 Yeah, so we've learned basic literacy,
01:24:11.580 but we don't have actual comprehension.
01:24:13.360 Yeah, yeah.
01:24:14.060 And it's the same thing in math.
01:24:15.440 You ask people questions like
01:24:17.140 two people,
01:24:18.780 there are six pieces of cheese.
01:24:20.980 There's two people.
01:24:22.000 How do you divide it equally
01:24:23.280 between the two people?
01:24:24.680 And, you know,
01:24:25.680 about 80% again.
01:24:27.160 You establish a communist state
01:24:28.400 and then each gets
01:24:29.160 zero pieces of cheese.
01:24:30.840 No, I don't think
01:24:31.700 we're that far away.
01:24:32.500 Okay.
01:24:32.820 So fundamentally,
01:24:34.360 the problem here is
01:24:35.240 that we're just simply
01:24:36.280 really bad
01:24:37.240 at teaching these kids.
01:24:38.740 So how do you solve this?
01:24:40.580 Well, we know some ways
01:24:41.840 that don't work.
01:24:42.980 It's not about
01:24:43.700 building more schools.
01:24:44.900 Now, building more schools
01:24:46.200 get more kids
01:24:46.920 into these schools,
01:24:48.380 which is nice,
01:24:49.660 but they don't actually
01:24:50.600 learn anything more.
01:24:52.180 If you, for instance,
01:24:53.280 increase the teacher pay,
01:24:55.040 it turns out...
01:24:55.560 So Indonesia did this
01:24:56.700 back in 2005.
01:24:59.020 They doubled
01:24:59.860 the spending on schools
01:25:01.660 and most of that
01:25:02.660 went to teachers.
01:25:03.700 They hired a lot more teachers.
01:25:04.740 They have one
01:25:05.300 of the world's
01:25:05.780 lowest class ratios,
01:25:07.820 but fundamentally,
01:25:09.260 they gave teachers
01:25:09.960 a lot more pay,
01:25:11.640 and because it was staggered
01:25:13.280 across the different regions,
01:25:14.400 we can actually do
01:25:15.200 an experiment on this
01:25:16.100 and see,
01:25:16.920 did it have any impact
01:25:18.000 on learning?
01:25:19.800 It turned out
01:25:20.540 it had none.
01:25:21.540 There was zero impact
01:25:22.960 on increasing
01:25:24.000 the pay of teachers.
01:25:25.180 Now, it made the teachers
01:25:26.520 much more happy,
01:25:27.600 which, of course,
01:25:28.620 could also be
01:25:29.160 a political consideration,
01:25:31.780 but surely,
01:25:32.960 the outcome
01:25:33.780 of spending money
01:25:34.920 on education
01:25:35.480 should be
01:25:35.940 that you get
01:25:36.660 higher learning,
01:25:38.240 and none of that happened.
01:25:39.380 It's a very famous paper.
01:25:40.700 It's called
01:25:40.980 Double for Nothing,
01:25:42.460 and so fundamentally,
01:25:44.380 we know how not to do this.
01:25:46.140 Also, reducing class sizes,
01:25:47.700 which a lot of people
01:25:48.440 talk about,
01:25:49.140 yes, it does help
01:25:50.080 a little bit,
01:25:50.840 but at very high cost.
01:25:52.160 So here are some
01:25:53.020 really, really effective ways
01:25:54.700 that you could do this
01:25:55.840 instead.
01:25:57.120 So there's two different ways.
01:25:58.920 One is that you focus
01:26:01.020 on making the teacher better.
01:26:03.020 The second one is
01:26:03.840 you focus on making
01:26:04.980 the kid better at learning.
01:26:06.820 The first one,
01:26:07.920 how do you make
01:26:08.440 the teacher better?
01:26:09.180 Remember,
01:26:09.700 a lot of these teachers
01:26:10.620 are not very well educated.
01:26:12.400 They're possibly
01:26:13.740 not very enthusiastic either.
01:26:16.180 They don't quite know
01:26:17.060 how to do this.
01:26:18.240 If you give them
01:26:19.360 better pedagogy,
01:26:20.900 so this is very,
01:26:23.080 very well established
01:26:23.960 through a lot of countries.
01:26:24.940 Kenya is taking this
01:26:27.480 to all their schools
01:26:28.240 right now.
01:26:29.640 It's basically about
01:26:30.880 making semi-scripted
01:26:32.840 lesson plans
01:26:36.140 for each one
01:26:37.140 of the classes
01:26:37.920 that the teacher
01:26:38.780 is going to go through.
01:26:39.920 So you go for three days
01:26:41.580 before the year starts.
01:26:43.580 You learn this.
01:26:44.620 You sort of get
01:26:45.060 all the teachers excited.
01:26:46.460 They meet some
01:26:47.140 of the other teachers
01:26:47.880 from the area.
01:26:49.960 Then you get them
01:26:50.800 these structured teacher plans.
01:26:52.980 You get them
01:26:53.600 a text message every week.
01:26:55.280 This week,
01:26:55.840 you're going to teach
01:26:56.480 this, this, and this.
01:26:57.920 Sort of get them enthusiastic.
01:26:59.800 You have some people
01:27:00.480 come out.
01:27:00.840 So you're teaching
01:27:01.360 the teachers
01:27:01.940 while they're teaching
01:27:02.680 the kids.
01:27:03.340 And you have some people
01:27:05.140 come out
01:27:05.620 and look at them
01:27:07.520 and give them feedback.
01:27:08.680 Not in the sense
01:27:09.480 of we're going to fire you
01:27:10.500 because you're not very good.
01:27:11.520 But this is how
01:27:12.240 you could do it better.
01:27:13.500 They come back
01:27:14.200 a couple of times
01:27:14.960 during the year
01:27:15.880 for some extra learning
01:27:18.480 together with
01:27:19.480 some of the other teachers.
01:27:20.280 This all has costs.
01:27:21.900 But it's very cheap.
01:27:23.940 So it turns out
01:27:24.460 this will cost
01:27:25.260 about $9
01:27:26.200 per child
01:27:27.820 per year.
01:27:28.600 Remember,
01:27:29.280 the average spend
01:27:30.020 is about $350
01:27:31.080 per kid
01:27:31.960 to schools
01:27:33.660 and all these
01:27:34.120 other things.
01:27:34.620 It's a trivial fraction.
01:27:35.980 3% increase.
01:27:36.520 It's a very,
01:27:37.140 very small fraction.
01:27:39.200 This means
01:27:40.260 that you actually
01:27:41.600 can see
01:27:42.140 the kids learn
01:27:43.320 much, much more.
01:27:44.660 For every year
01:27:45.420 they go to school,
01:27:46.460 instead of just
01:27:47.400 learning one year
01:27:48.220 of school,
01:27:49.520 one normal year.
01:27:50.940 They almost learn
01:27:52.100 two years of school.
01:27:53.140 You almost double
01:27:53.980 the learning
01:27:54.660 for every year.
01:27:54.900 For a 3% improvement
01:27:56.200 in increment and cost.
01:27:57.700 Yes.
01:27:58.060 This is a great investment
01:27:59.340 we find that has
01:28:00.460 a bit of cost
01:28:01.400 Well, it makes sense
01:28:01.680 from a behavioral
01:28:02.440 perspective.
01:28:03.400 I had this book
01:28:04.560 I used on my kids
01:28:05.600 when they were little
01:28:06.300 called
01:28:06.820 How to Teach Your Child
01:28:08.820 to Read in 100 Easy Lessons.
01:28:10.820 And it was produced
01:28:12.260 by behavioral psychologists.
01:28:13.900 And basically
01:28:14.420 what they do
01:28:15.040 is provide
01:28:15.600 10-minute
01:28:16.280 scripted lessons.
01:28:17.440 So all you have to do
01:28:18.920 is sit down
01:28:19.660 and read the words.
01:28:21.700 Everything's laid out.
01:28:22.740 And so it makes it
01:28:23.900 extremely simple
01:28:24.760 for the parent to do
01:28:25.900 because the parent
01:28:26.680 can do it even
01:28:27.460 under conditions
01:28:28.320 of exhaustion.
01:28:29.320 And it only takes
01:28:30.140 10 minutes of attention
01:28:31.320 on the part of the child.
01:28:33.000 And in three months
01:28:33.920 you don't only get
01:28:35.400 word recognition,
01:28:36.500 literacy,
01:28:36.980 you get the ability
01:28:37.740 for the child
01:28:38.280 to start to comprehend
01:28:39.120 at the phrase
01:28:39.880 and sentence level
01:28:40.740 which is,
01:28:41.700 by the way,
01:28:42.260 when spontaneous
01:28:43.540 enjoyment of reading
01:28:44.780 kicks in, right?
01:28:45.740 because the automatization
01:28:47.520 of letter
01:28:48.160 and word recognition
01:28:49.280 is effortful.
01:28:50.840 And that's even true
01:28:51.740 up to the level
01:28:52.360 of the phrase.
01:28:53.320 But as soon as you can
01:28:54.020 get a phrase
01:28:54.580 at a glance,
01:28:55.700 then it starts to become
01:28:56.800 entertaining
01:28:57.320 rather than effortful.
01:28:58.420 Yeah, exactly.
01:28:59.340 It's a hard threshold
01:29:00.180 to hit, though.
01:29:01.280 So now you said,
01:29:03.420 well,
01:29:03.580 if you use these
01:29:04.140 behavioral methods
01:29:05.620 and train teachers
01:29:07.540 who are very untrained
01:29:08.820 about exactly
01:29:09.820 what to do,
01:29:10.840 you can imagine as well
01:29:11.720 that's much more
01:29:12.360 positive for them too
01:29:13.360 because the classroom
01:29:14.500 isn't chaotic
01:29:15.180 and unstructured.
01:29:16.580 And one of the joys
01:29:19.080 of being a teacher,
01:29:20.620 and there are many things
01:29:21.560 about being a teacher
01:29:22.320 that aren't joyful,
01:29:23.400 is to actually see
01:29:25.020 that what you're doing
01:29:25.660 has some positive effect.
01:29:27.080 So teachers are
01:29:28.580 a little ambivalent
01:29:29.440 about this
01:29:29.880 because also
01:29:30.500 they feel like
01:29:32.280 it removes
01:29:32.780 some of their autonomy.
01:29:35.540 Yeah.
01:29:35.900 But you can worry
01:29:36.360 about that
01:29:36.800 once they're experts.
01:29:37.900 Oh, absolutely.
01:29:38.720 So I get that.
01:29:40.600 So again,
01:29:41.420 we're not saying
01:29:42.260 that if you spend
01:29:43.240 this money,
01:29:44.280 everything will be perfect.
01:29:45.760 We're saying
01:29:46.220 it'll be better
01:29:47.520 and we know
01:29:48.320 how much better
01:29:49.000 on average
01:29:49.380 because we've already
01:29:50.240 done these.
01:29:50.560 Well, twice as good
01:29:50.640 is pretty good.
01:29:51.380 Exactly.
01:29:52.100 Twice as good.
01:29:52.900 Yeah.
01:29:53.120 And the other way
01:29:54.180 is to remember
01:29:55.300 that the kids
01:29:56.540 are struggling,
01:29:58.240 mostly.
01:29:58.900 So almost everywhere
01:30:00.280 in the world,
01:30:00.860 we put all the 12-year-olds
01:30:02.500 in the same grade.
01:30:03.540 We put all the 11-year-olds
01:30:04.640 in the same grade.
01:30:06.140 And that somewhat works
01:30:08.300 in great countries
01:30:08.960 because everybody
01:30:09.680 has been going to school
01:30:10.720 and have enough food
01:30:11.700 and we're paying attention.
01:30:13.380 But in poor country,
01:30:14.580 these kids are all
01:30:15.440 over the place.
01:30:16.080 So some of them
01:30:16.700 are struggling
01:30:17.220 and have no idea
01:30:18.120 what's going on.
01:30:18.840 Some of them
01:30:19.160 are incredibly bored
01:30:19.980 and way ahead
01:30:20.960 and don't really bother
01:30:22.020 about the teacher.
01:30:22.840 What is a teacher
01:30:23.500 going to do
01:30:23.980 when you have
01:30:24.560 this vast amount?
01:30:25.980 You're going to try
01:30:26.600 to sort of hit the middle
01:30:27.680 and you're going to fail
01:30:29.040 with most of these kids?
01:30:30.840 One way that we know
01:30:32.680 works really well
01:30:33.580 is to teach
01:30:34.560 at the right level.
01:30:35.740 Yeah.
01:30:36.280 That's the zone
01:30:37.180 of proximal development.
01:30:38.700 Exactly.
01:30:39.100 So you say
01:30:39.860 if you're in a 6th grade,
01:30:42.120 there's a few people
01:30:42.980 who are actually
01:30:43.540 at 7th grade level.
01:30:44.760 There's a few
01:30:45.560 that are 6th grade,
01:30:46.660 there's a lot of
01:30:47.160 that are 4th grade
01:30:47.960 and there's even some
01:30:48.880 that are 1st grade.
01:30:50.100 If you imagine
01:30:50.900 you actually teach
01:30:52.040 each one
01:30:53.160 at their right level,
01:30:54.560 they will learn
01:30:55.160 a lot more.
01:30:55.920 Now, you can do that
01:30:56.600 in two ways.
01:30:57.300 One is that you actually
01:30:58.660 split them out
01:30:59.480 into these grades.
01:31:01.940 That's socially
01:31:02.760 a little hard
01:31:03.420 because you put
01:31:04.080 12-year-olds
01:31:05.240 together with 6-year-olds
01:31:06.180 and you sort of
01:31:07.420 point out
01:31:07.900 12-year-olds.
01:31:08.480 Yes, he's not
01:31:09.720 that smart
01:31:10.300 kind of thing
01:31:10.940 and it takes
01:31:12.960 more teachers
01:31:14.820 to do that.
01:31:15.700 You do that
01:31:16.220 one hour a day.
01:31:17.100 They do that
01:31:17.580 in Pratham,
01:31:18.240 for instance,
01:31:18.700 in India
01:31:19.080 and it works
01:31:20.040 and we know
01:31:20.520 it works.
01:31:21.300 So again,
01:31:21.900 it costs about
01:31:22.500 $21 per kid
01:31:24.080 and it delivers
01:31:25.200 about the same
01:31:26.000 as what we talked
01:31:26.620 about with
01:31:26.920 the structured
01:31:27.340 teacher plans.
01:31:28.620 It delivers
01:31:29.020 about two years
01:31:30.080 of learning
01:31:30.700 for every one year
01:31:31.720 you go to school.
01:31:32.500 This is just
01:31:32.920 one hour a day.
01:31:34.240 So again,
01:31:34.620 fantastic improvement.
01:31:36.440 So that's
01:31:36.780 about $40.
01:31:37.780 That's probably the only
01:31:37.920 hour that they
01:31:38.500 actually learn.
01:31:40.300 Very likely.
01:31:41.560 But again,
01:31:42.320 for social benefits,
01:31:44.040 it's probably
01:31:44.980 a really bad idea
01:31:45.840 to imagine
01:31:46.320 having the 12-year-old
01:31:47.380 and the 6-year-old
01:31:47.980 together all the time
01:31:49.200 and that's why
01:31:49.920 it's just one hour a day.
01:31:51.980 At least that's
01:31:52.760 how the studies
01:31:53.480 have been made.
01:31:53.920 That stigma.
01:31:54.720 Yes, yes.
01:31:55.380 That's what we're
01:31:55.940 basing it on.
01:31:56.800 And the other way
01:31:57.400 to do it,
01:31:57.880 which I like more,
01:31:59.540 you know,
01:31:59.960 who am I to know,
01:32:01.800 is to do this
01:32:03.600 with technology.
01:32:04.380 So you basically
01:32:05.180 do this with tablets.
01:32:06.760 So you buy
01:32:07.220 a bunch of tablets
01:32:08.140 and the kids
01:32:09.420 will one hour a day
01:32:10.960 go and sit down
01:32:12.180 with the tablet
01:32:12.740 and the tablet
01:32:13.360 very quickly learns
01:32:14.360 who you are.
01:32:15.680 You obviously log
01:32:16.460 into that particular one.
01:32:17.500 You have a program
01:32:18.240 that teaches them
01:32:19.020 either mathematics
01:32:20.000 or the local language
01:32:21.920 and it will be
01:32:22.620 in the local language.
01:32:23.960 And it very quickly
01:32:24.760 finds out,
01:32:25.360 oh, you're at that level.
01:32:26.540 So I'm going to start
01:32:27.240 teaching you at this level.
01:32:28.900 It is one of the most
01:32:30.080 enjoyable hours
01:32:31.020 of the day
01:32:31.540 for the kids.
01:32:31.880 I'm sure it is, man.
01:32:32.940 That zone of proximal
01:32:34.240 development
01:32:34.720 defines enjoyment, right?
01:32:36.480 Enjoyment,
01:32:37.540 technically,
01:32:38.660 you get a dopamine kick
01:32:40.100 from anything
01:32:41.780 that is associated
01:32:42.800 with positive emotion.
01:32:44.220 And what dopamine
01:32:45.020 does is indicate
01:32:45.920 that you're moving
01:32:46.920 at the proper rate
01:32:48.060 towards a desired goal.
01:32:49.360 That's the actual signal.
01:32:50.600 And then that feels
01:32:51.760 rewarding,
01:32:52.860 but it also,
01:32:53.520 the dopamine
01:32:53.980 actually strengthens
01:32:55.880 the circuits
01:32:56.560 that are co-activated
01:32:58.160 with those events.
01:33:00.140 So if you put the kid
01:33:00.960 in the zone
01:33:01.420 of proximal development
01:33:02.360 where they're on
01:33:03.000 the incremental edge
01:33:03.820 of learning,
01:33:04.580 not only do they
01:33:05.160 feel good about it,
01:33:05.980 but the neural circuits
01:33:07.100 that are operating
01:33:07.880 at that time
01:33:08.540 grow more effectively.
01:33:09.780 So yeah,
01:33:10.540 so that's all.
01:33:11.200 There's nothing about that
01:33:12.080 that isn't good.
01:33:12.880 No, no, exactly.
01:33:14.080 And again,
01:33:14.720 this is fairly cheap.
01:33:15.740 It's $31.
01:33:16.840 Now, this is more expensive.
01:33:18.440 You have to buy the tablets.
01:33:20.140 Given that you just need
01:33:21.800 one hour a day,
01:33:22.760 a lot of different students
01:33:23.820 are going to be using
01:33:24.560 the same tablet.
01:33:25.680 You need to have
01:33:26.660 a place you can lock them in
01:33:28.040 so they don't disappear.
01:33:28.920 Still, some of them
01:33:30.260 will disappear also
01:33:31.200 because of corruption.
01:33:32.460 You probably also need
01:33:33.500 some solar panels
01:33:34.360 because these places
01:33:35.280 don't have electricity
01:33:36.280 to recharge them
01:33:39.000 so every day
01:33:40.540 they get recharged.
01:33:42.100 All of that
01:33:42.920 is included in those costs.
01:33:44.740 The benefit
01:33:45.500 is that this will actually
01:33:47.200 give almost three years
01:33:48.940 of learning
01:33:49.760 for every one year
01:33:50.560 in school.
01:33:51.680 And that's an hour a day.
01:33:53.000 This is just one hour a day.
01:33:54.320 So basically,
01:33:55.180 if you spend eight hours a day,
01:33:56.880 seven hours,
01:33:57.700 you learn virtually nothing.
01:33:58.920 Like you normally did.
01:34:00.300 And then one hour,
01:34:01.240 you learn almost all of it.
01:34:03.140 Isn't that amazing
01:34:03.980 that we can do that?
01:34:04.920 Yeah, well, computers
01:34:05.580 are unbelievably good
01:34:07.000 when they're used properly
01:34:08.040 at finding that zone
01:34:09.120 of proximal development.
01:34:10.660 And for necessities
01:34:14.300 like basic automatization,
01:34:16.760 say of letter recognition,
01:34:18.040 computers are unbeatable
01:34:18.980 because they can do
01:34:19.740 repeated mass practice
01:34:21.020 in a way that
01:34:21.660 would drive any adult
01:34:22.800 stark raving mad.
01:34:23.900 Because you could get
01:34:25.240 a kid who can't
01:34:26.680 see the difference
01:34:27.580 between Ds and Bs,
01:34:28.820 for example,
01:34:29.340 you could just have them
01:34:30.120 practice that 500 times
01:34:31.880 for 15 minutes a day
01:34:33.840 for a week
01:34:34.420 and they'd have
01:34:35.040 the letter recognition down.
01:34:36.500 You'd never get that
01:34:37.420 in the standard classroom.
01:34:38.500 Not probably in the entire
01:34:39.740 educational lifetime
01:34:41.020 of the child.
01:34:42.160 So yeah,
01:34:42.560 that's very cool
01:34:43.340 that that's all
01:34:44.100 a possibility.
01:34:45.580 And one of the crucial bits
01:34:46.400 here is
01:34:46.880 that the cost
01:34:48.060 is still,
01:34:48.760 you still have the teacher,
01:34:49.860 so the teacher
01:34:50.440 will be sitting in the room
01:34:51.400 helping oversee this.
01:34:53.100 Actually,
01:34:53.920 they very rarely need them.
01:34:55.620 But you need to make sure
01:34:57.440 that the teachers
01:34:58.580 don't think
01:34:59.560 that the computers
01:35:00.720 are going to take over
01:35:01.520 their job.
01:35:01.860 Right, right.
01:35:02.620 And that's incredibly important,
01:35:04.220 otherwise you're not going
01:35:05.160 to have the teachers
01:35:05.820 play along
01:35:06.400 and then you won't be able
01:35:07.520 to do this.
01:35:07.540 Well, and it doesn't
01:35:09.180 have to be the case
01:35:10.100 that the computers
01:35:11.540 are going to replace
01:35:12.220 their job
01:35:12.680 and shouldn't be the case.
01:35:14.080 It just means that
01:35:15.260 the teacher
01:35:17.640 should be available
01:35:18.420 to help solve
01:35:19.420 the problems
01:35:20.040 that the kids
01:35:20.640 are encountering
01:35:21.280 while they're engaged
01:35:21.980 in the learning.
01:35:22.580 Exactly.
01:35:23.000 And so,
01:35:23.620 and so,
01:35:24.680 overall,
01:35:25.240 so Malawi,
01:35:26.020 for instance,
01:35:26.560 a country that we worked in
01:35:27.900 where we pointed this out
01:35:29.080 as a very,
01:35:29.760 very good intervention
01:35:31.040 is now actually
01:35:32.280 setting up this
01:35:33.300 for the entire
01:35:34.220 primary school system.
01:35:35.400 Oh, cool.
01:35:35.920 So, yeah,
01:35:36.540 again,
01:35:37.020 these are things
01:35:37.740 that we can do.
01:35:38.480 We estimate
01:35:39.060 that there's,
01:35:40.020 so there's about
01:35:40.780 467 million kids
01:35:43.340 in primary school today
01:35:44.960 in the poor half
01:35:46.900 of the world.
01:35:47.720 We're estimating
01:35:48.580 what would it cost
01:35:49.440 to get 90%
01:35:50.800 of them
01:35:51.260 one of these
01:35:52.120 three things
01:35:52.620 that we talked about.
01:35:53.440 We don't know
01:35:54.160 whether they interact.
01:35:55.180 We don't know
01:35:55.600 whether you can
01:35:56.060 actually double up.
01:35:56.980 You can both have,
01:35:58.040 you know,
01:35:58.540 a tablet
01:35:58.960 and have teacher plans.
01:36:00.780 We don't know
01:36:01.340 whether that works.
01:36:02.140 Well,
01:36:02.320 there's no reason
01:36:02.980 to assume
01:36:03.600 that it would top out.
01:36:04.760 Like,
01:36:04.880 I doubt if it's additive,
01:36:07.460 and it would be lovely
01:36:08.180 if it was multiplicative,
01:36:09.380 but,
01:36:09.700 like,
01:36:10.160 if you look at the effects
01:36:11.060 of programs
01:36:11.640 like Head Start,
01:36:12.480 for example,
01:36:13.040 you don't get
01:36:13.840 that multiplicative effect,
01:36:15.260 but I think
01:36:16.000 you could reasonably
01:36:17.000 assume some
01:36:17.860 near-linear effect.
01:36:19.840 So we're simply
01:36:20.900 making the very
01:36:21.580 simple assumption
01:36:22.240 of saying,
01:36:23.080 we don't know
01:36:23.620 what different countries
01:36:24.800 and different schools
01:36:25.600 would do,
01:36:26.240 so we're simply
01:36:26.840 assuming you do
01:36:27.480 one-third of each
01:36:28.340 of these three things,
01:36:29.220 which is a rough
01:36:30.420 approximation
01:36:30.960 just simply to get
01:36:31.900 a sense of
01:36:32.380 how much good
01:36:33.140 would this do.
01:36:34.020 Turns out that
01:36:34.700 this would do
01:36:35.260 $65 of good
01:36:36.720 for every dollar spent,
01:36:37.940 so we would spend
01:36:38.940 about $9.8 billion
01:36:40.340 per year
01:36:41.500 over this decade,
01:36:43.700 and the benefits
01:36:44.700 would come only,
01:36:46.640 we only look at
01:36:47.520 the productivity benefits
01:36:48.800 that these kids
01:36:49.720 would become smarter,
01:36:51.160 and hence,
01:36:51.940 get higher salaries
01:36:53.620 that it means
01:36:54.300 that they would
01:36:54.740 help produce
01:36:55.460 more economic growth
01:36:56.820 in their long-term future
01:36:58.820 worth about $800
01:37:01.180 or $2,000
01:37:02.180 per kid.
01:37:02.860 The Hebrews
01:37:03.340 created history
01:37:04.780 as we know it.
01:37:05.480 So basically
01:37:06.800 about $6 million
01:37:07.480 a year.
01:37:07.500 You don't get away
01:37:08.120 with anything,
01:37:09.040 so you might think
01:37:09.980 you could.
01:37:10.140 by itself
01:37:10.700 almost half
01:37:11.620 the total economic
01:37:13.020 benefit that we're
01:37:13.760 talking about.
01:37:14.560 This is education.
01:37:16.980 You will pay the piper.
01:37:18.420 It's going to call you
01:37:19.320 out of that slavery
01:37:20.140 into freedom,
01:37:21.560 even if that moves
01:37:22.640 you into the desert.
01:37:24.080 And again,
01:37:24.500 this is a very small
01:37:25.380 part of what we talked
01:37:26.220 about.
01:37:26.640 It's very likely
01:37:27.340 that once you get
01:37:28.080 started on this,
01:37:28.640 you're going to do
01:37:29.200 more of these
01:37:29.640 share that is
01:37:30.600 much more
01:37:31.940 than what you can
01:37:33.440 imagine.
01:37:34.260 The highest
01:37:34.880 ethical
01:37:36.180 spirit to which
01:37:38.020 we're beholding
01:37:39.320 is presented
01:37:40.260 precisely as that
01:37:42.060 spirit that
01:37:42.800 allies itself
01:37:43.940 with the cause
01:37:44.700 of freedom
01:37:45.300 against tyranny.
01:37:46.700 10,000.
01:37:47.200 Yes, exactly.
01:37:48.260 I want the
01:37:48.760 ones to get
01:37:49.280 punished.
01:37:49.640 Do you want
01:37:50.260 the villains
01:37:50.700 to learn
01:37:51.260 before they have
01:37:51.960 to pay the
01:37:52.380 ultimate price?
01:37:53.160 That's such a
01:37:53.660 Christian question.
01:37:54.480 Oh, Maya.
01:38:06.020 Maya.
01:38:07.180 She loves being
01:38:08.400 cool.
01:38:09.200 21 degrees is her
01:38:10.500 favorite number.
01:38:12.020 God, she's the
01:38:12.820 coolest, especially
01:38:14.200 at night.
01:38:14.980 So I raise the temp
01:38:16.080 at 10 p.m.
01:38:16.860 because she gets
01:38:17.580 chilly when she
01:38:18.280 sleeps.
01:38:19.160 Maya loves using
01:38:20.000 less energy, and I
01:38:21.300 love Maya.
01:38:22.220 We're basically besties.
01:38:23.540 With SmartFlow from
01:38:24.920 Enbridge Sustain, you
01:38:26.140 won't have to think
01:38:26.860 about your HVAC, but
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01:38:35.980 Okay, so that's
01:38:36.960 number five.
01:38:37.640 What's number six?
01:38:38.540 Number six, let's
01:38:39.580 look at malaria.
01:38:41.100 So malaria is a big
01:38:42.220 problem in the world.
01:38:43.360 It used to be
01:38:44.620 incredibly deadly
01:38:46.220 across the world.
01:38:47.340 So we have this
01:38:48.060 idea of malaria
01:38:48.940 being a tropical
01:38:50.180 disease, and typically
01:38:51.640 one that happens in
01:38:52.580 Africa, which is
01:38:53.320 absolutely true
01:38:53.980 today, but it used
01:38:55.720 to be everywhere.
01:38:56.740 Boston was
01:38:57.360 malarial, Washington
01:38:58.420 was malarial.
01:38:59.180 I think it was too
01:39:00.140 damn cold in Canada
01:39:01.180 for malaria to really
01:39:02.100 thrive.
01:39:02.940 But in the U.S.,
01:39:04.660 36 of the U.S.
01:39:06.140 states were endemic
01:39:07.780 in malaria.
01:39:08.820 We had malaria in
01:39:09.800 Finland and Archangel
01:39:10.980 in Russia.
01:39:12.180 It was huge in Moscow
01:39:14.160 during the Second
01:39:14.960 World War.
01:39:15.780 It was pretty much
01:39:16.720 everywhere.
01:39:17.160 So we estimate about
01:39:19.200 one-tenth of all
01:39:20.660 death in 1900 was
01:39:23.140 because of malaria.
01:39:25.340 Mosquitoes happen to
01:39:26.340 be the worst enemy of
01:39:27.460 mankind.
01:39:28.240 Mosquitoes are really,
01:39:28.940 really bad.
01:39:29.540 I mean, for a lot of
01:39:30.360 reasons, but also
01:39:31.240 because they transfer
01:39:32.020 the malaria parasite.
01:39:36.400 What happened was,
01:39:38.160 and this is true for a
01:39:39.200 lot of development,
01:39:40.300 was we got rich and
01:39:41.740 we got medication.
01:39:42.900 So when you get rich,
01:39:44.520 you start draining the
01:39:45.560 swamps.
01:39:45.780 That's what England
01:39:46.940 did.
01:39:47.660 And mosquitoes live
01:39:48.980 in swamps, so that
01:39:49.900 actually reduced the
01:39:50.780 amount of mosquitoes.
01:39:53.160 You also get better
01:39:54.680 nourished, and that
01:39:55.940 means that when you
01:39:56.840 get malaria, you don't
01:39:57.820 have as bad of a
01:39:59.140 reaction.
01:39:59.620 You don't get as sick.
01:40:02.200 You can also afford
01:40:03.220 more protection.
01:40:05.480 So you'll build a
01:40:06.600 house with screens,
01:40:07.520 for instance.
01:40:08.080 Then you don't get
01:40:08.980 malaria.
01:40:11.320 And then you can
01:40:11.960 afford the medication.
01:40:13.480 So back in the
01:40:14.560 1600s, we found
01:40:15.660 quinine, the bark
01:40:17.820 from a tree in
01:40:19.220 Peru.
01:40:20.620 That's in tonic for
01:40:21.620 anybody who's interested.
01:40:22.400 That's what makes it
01:40:23.340 bitter.
01:40:23.880 Yes.
01:40:24.480 And actually, that was
01:40:26.600 what people were
01:40:27.360 drinking in India.
01:40:28.160 Gin and tonic.
01:40:28.760 Gin and tonic.
01:40:29.500 That was, you know,
01:40:30.120 at least that was the
01:40:31.000 justification for it.
01:40:33.440 And the Spanish got
01:40:36.920 incredibly rich on this,
01:40:38.880 and they actually kept
01:40:39.760 it on wraps for a very
01:40:40.720 long time.
01:40:41.320 So only very rich.
01:40:42.280 Spaniards, man.
01:40:44.160 Well, eventually, the
01:40:45.440 Dutch found a way to
01:40:47.160 smuggle some of those
01:40:48.080 seeds out, and they
01:40:48.860 grew in Indonesia.
01:40:51.280 And then, you know, we
01:40:52.120 got a lot more
01:40:52.820 quinine.
01:40:53.560 Eventually, the world,
01:40:54.860 or the parasite, got
01:40:58.220 resistant to quinine.
01:41:00.020 That also happened to the
01:41:01.620 artificial production of
01:41:04.560 it that we then turn on.
01:41:06.540 Now we have
01:41:07.020 artemisinin, and we're
01:41:08.080 starting to see the same
01:41:09.100 kind of thing happening.
01:41:09.940 So getting drugs is
01:41:11.860 obviously important, but
01:41:13.360 it's not the only part of
01:41:14.420 the solution.
01:41:15.080 So basically, we
01:41:15.940 eradicated this in most
01:41:17.140 of the rich world.
01:41:17.820 There's virtually no
01:41:18.820 malaria in the rich world.
01:41:20.560 It used to be huge in
01:41:21.960 India, for instance.
01:41:22.960 It's virtually no
01:41:24.140 malaria there either.
01:41:25.980 And that's over how many
01:41:26.860 decades in India?
01:41:27.800 So this is over the last
01:41:29.420 century, basically, that
01:41:30.860 we got rid of it.
01:41:31.560 That's amazing.
01:41:32.040 Because you got rich,
01:41:33.040 because you have
01:41:34.600 medication.
01:41:35.960 But, and this is
01:41:36.660 crucial, we also have
01:41:38.480 much nicer mosquitoes
01:41:40.320 and malaria parasites.
01:41:44.160 So our mosquitoes
01:41:45.580 like to bite livestock
01:41:49.280 as well.
01:41:50.160 And that matters, because
01:41:51.500 what you need for
01:41:52.360 transmission of malaria is
01:41:53.660 that I have malaria,
01:41:55.160 the mosquito bites me,
01:41:56.680 and then it flies over
01:41:57.840 and bite you.
01:41:58.400 Right, right.
01:41:59.020 But if there's a nice
01:42:00.440 cow right next to you,
01:42:01.700 it might bite the cow,
01:42:02.820 and then there's no
01:42:03.760 transmission.
01:42:04.620 So if you have a lot of
01:42:05.500 livestock, and you have
01:42:06.300 more livestock as you get
01:42:07.360 richer...
01:42:07.400 So we need to breed cows
01:42:08.520 that are more delicious
01:42:09.400 to mosquitoes.
01:42:10.340 Exactly.
01:42:11.100 But the problem, and this
01:42:12.540 is why we have almost
01:42:14.160 all malaria in Africa,
01:42:16.300 is that the mosquitoes
01:42:17.640 only, the mosquitoes
01:42:19.240 that are in Africa
01:42:20.040 only like to bite humans.
01:42:22.260 So they have much more
01:42:23.500 intense transmission of
01:42:27.420 malaria.
01:42:28.360 And what basically happened
01:42:30.060 in all kinds of other
01:42:30.820 places of the world was
01:42:32.320 we disrupted part of the
01:42:34.240 transmission, and you
01:42:35.440 really just need to
01:42:36.340 disrupt it enough that
01:42:38.540 it's only the female
01:42:39.500 mosquito, right, that
01:42:40.420 the female mosquito
01:42:41.240 typically don't get to
01:42:43.160 bite two people.
01:42:44.280 So it doesn't get to
01:42:45.560 bite one that has it,
01:42:46.540 and then transfer it to
01:42:47.580 someone else.
01:42:48.000 But it dies after one
01:42:49.180 and a half of those for
01:42:50.480 a number of different
01:42:51.620 reasons.
01:42:52.020 We just need to get to
01:42:52.920 that.
01:42:53.400 But in Africa, they
01:42:54.980 bite so many times
01:42:56.360 before they die that
01:42:57.800 even if you disrupt part
01:42:58.920 of the transmission,
01:42:59.780 it doesn't help.
01:43:00.520 They are also badly set
01:43:02.480 up because the parasite
01:43:04.220 is more deadly in Africa
01:43:06.420 than anywhere else.
01:43:07.600 It's just, you know,
01:43:08.560 bad luck of the draw.
01:43:10.000 That's why you have
01:43:11.080 almost all of the malaria
01:43:14.040 in Africa now.
01:43:15.020 It's 95%.
01:43:15.960 It's actually just in
01:43:17.300 four countries, half of
01:43:18.520 it.
01:43:19.060 So about 600,000 people
01:43:21.200 die every year.
01:43:22.200 More than half of them
01:43:23.200 die in Nigeria, in
01:43:25.160 Tanzania, in Niger, and
01:43:27.060 the Democratic Republic of
01:43:28.340 the Congo.
01:43:28.700 So it's a very, very
01:43:29.920 limited problem to
01:43:31.480 Sub-Saharan Africa.
01:43:33.200 And what we then look
01:43:34.520 at is, you know,
01:43:36.500 obviously you need to
01:43:37.360 have medication, and
01:43:38.320 we do have medication
01:43:39.780 across the world.
01:43:40.800 But the most important
01:43:42.320 part is to get
01:43:43.300 mosquito nets.
01:43:44.960 We know that that's a
01:43:46.000 very cheap way of
01:43:47.060 dramatically reducing.
01:43:48.100 So these would be...
01:43:48.740 And that reduces the
01:43:49.860 person-to-person
01:43:50.620 biting of the mosquitoes.
01:43:52.140 So these are
01:43:52.960 insecticide-treated
01:43:53.980 mosquito nets.
01:43:55.280 So they work in two
01:43:56.400 ways.
01:43:56.740 You sleep under them.
01:43:57.680 And so they have this
01:43:59.720 physical barrier that
01:44:01.040 prevents the mosquito to
01:44:02.260 come in.
01:44:02.820 And also when it sits on
01:44:04.000 these, and it often will
01:44:05.120 do, it'll actually die
01:44:06.900 from the pesticide.
01:44:08.580 And those two things can
01:44:10.180 actually disrupt malaria.
01:44:12.120 So we estimate if you
01:44:13.560 increase this...
01:44:15.120 So remember, all of
01:44:16.100 these nets are being
01:44:17.500 distributed.
01:44:18.100 We distribute more than
01:44:19.260 two or three hundred
01:44:22.780 million nets every year.
01:44:24.040 all of these nets need
01:44:26.640 to be distributed.
01:44:27.580 We're assuming what
01:44:28.540 would happen if we
01:44:29.360 increase that by 10%.
01:44:30.920 Yeah.
01:44:31.760 That will have a cost,
01:44:33.260 yes, but it'll also
01:44:34.540 have a huge benefit
01:44:35.440 because you'll actually
01:44:36.360 be able to see about a
01:44:38.360 reduction of half come
01:44:40.160 2030 of the number of
01:44:42.420 people that get
01:44:43.360 infected with malaria.
01:44:44.620 So we could actually
01:44:45.340 reduce this by half
01:44:47.280 over the decade.
01:44:48.420 That would be about
01:44:48.980 200,000 people that we
01:44:50.840 could save every year.
01:44:51.920 And if we could do
01:44:54.120 that, it would also
01:44:55.080 save much more on the
01:44:57.200 hospitalization cost.
01:44:59.300 And remember, this would
01:45:00.780 also be about 240 million
01:45:03.300 cases of malaria.
01:45:04.900 So most people get
01:45:06.140 malaria, they don't die.
01:45:07.420 Right.
01:45:07.700 They just get really,
01:45:08.820 really sick.
01:45:09.460 And then it recurs, too.
01:45:11.040 A lot of them...
01:45:12.320 So there's not that many
01:45:13.580 people.
01:45:14.060 Many of the people will
01:45:15.240 get it several times,
01:45:16.360 and that means that they
01:45:17.560 will be less productive.
01:45:18.460 They can't go to work.
01:45:19.800 We actually estimate the
01:45:20.980 benefit would also be
01:45:21.920 about $10 billion,
01:45:23.320 both in preserved
01:45:24.720 health care costs.
01:45:25.840 That's more than just
01:45:26.740 the net would cost.
01:45:28.500 And in productivity cost.
01:45:31.020 The total cost is $1.1
01:45:33.020 billion.
01:45:33.980 So again, it's the cheapest
01:45:35.160 thing.
01:45:35.180 And that's a 10% increase
01:45:36.520 in the number of nets
01:45:37.360 that are distributed.
01:45:38.320 So for every dollar spent,
01:45:40.180 you would do $48 of good.
01:45:42.280 It's an amazing return.
01:45:44.260 So even if you just look
01:45:46.460 at the...
01:45:47.780 The save the malarial
01:45:48.940 parasite environmentalists
01:45:50.640 haven't come after you
01:45:51.400 on that front, eh?
01:45:52.120 No, I don't...
01:45:52.520 Well, that's good.
01:45:53.160 I think most people
01:45:54.560 feel that, yes,
01:45:56.980 mosquitoes and malaria
01:45:57.960 parasites are something
01:45:59.380 that we could just have
01:46:01.100 in a zoo.
01:46:01.580 We could have fewer
01:46:02.940 of them, at least.
01:46:03.680 Yes, yes.
01:46:03.840 Certainly.
01:46:04.420 Okay, it's good to have
01:46:05.120 a consensus on that front.
01:46:06.260 Yes, yeah.
01:46:06.980 So fundamentally,
01:46:08.300 we could do an amazing
01:46:09.320 amount of good,
01:46:09.860 and you could actually,
01:46:10.800 just by looking at the
01:46:11.940 savings,
01:46:13.240 you would get more savings
01:46:14.300 in the healthcare sector
01:46:15.240 than the extra bed nets
01:46:16.560 would cost.
01:46:17.240 Why are we not doing it?
01:46:18.200 Because it's two different
01:46:19.160 pots of money.
01:46:20.260 Right, right.
01:46:20.900 So, and of course,
01:46:21.820 it only comes in a couple...
01:46:22.620 Weird structural impediments, eh?
01:46:23.880 Well, and it comes
01:46:24.560 a couple of years later,
01:46:25.740 so, you know,
01:46:26.360 this is the kind of thing...
01:46:27.340 Again, imagine if,
01:46:28.900 you know, I don't know,
01:46:30.040 Elon Musk was to say,
01:46:31.420 I am gonna spend
01:46:32.140 $1.1 billion a year.
01:46:33.300 Elon, are you listening?
01:46:34.520 Yeah.
01:46:34.920 And then we could get...
01:46:36.240 We could save
01:46:36.740 200,000 lives every year.
01:46:38.440 Yeah, yeah.
01:46:39.200 I think that's
01:46:39.800 an amazing achievement.
01:46:40.800 And again,
01:46:41.440 this is something...
01:46:42.040 Be fun to set up
01:46:42.780 some crowdfunding projects
01:46:43.900 for some of these things,
01:46:44.840 you know,
01:46:45.040 because it'd be interesting.
01:46:46.140 I was thinking about
01:46:46.720 taxation the other night
01:46:47.880 and taxation is,
01:46:50.240 well, people take your money
01:46:52.060 and then they do with it
01:46:53.080 what they want.
01:46:53.860 And you might say,
01:46:54.900 well, we have to have taxes.
01:46:56.020 And I really wonder,
01:46:57.000 I wonder if you put forward
01:46:58.380 a sufficiently attractive proposal
01:47:00.040 and ask people
01:47:01.040 if they would be willing
01:47:01.840 to donate,
01:47:02.500 if you could raise
01:47:03.240 enough money
01:47:03.780 to do these sorts of things
01:47:04.820 without compulsion.
01:47:06.020 You know,
01:47:06.220 if the story was set up right,
01:47:07.800 this isn't tremendously expensive.
01:47:09.840 And besides,
01:47:10.460 you wouldn't have to raise
01:47:11.160 all the money
01:47:11.720 to start doing it.
01:47:13.000 And so,
01:47:13.900 wow,
01:47:14.260 so that's something
01:47:14.840 very much worth thinking through.
01:47:16.800 Okay,
01:47:17.000 so that's number six,
01:47:17.980 right?
01:47:18.260 Malaria.
01:47:18.620 Anything else
01:47:19.140 on the malarial front?
01:47:20.240 No.
01:47:20.540 Okay,
01:47:20.900 what's number seven?
01:47:22.000 So,
01:47:22.880 chronic diseases
01:47:24.740 are what's known
01:47:25.920 as non-communicable diseases.
01:47:27.820 So,
01:47:28.100 you know,
01:47:28.860 in days of past,
01:47:30.600 almost everyone died
01:47:31.600 from infectious disease.
01:47:33.320 Chronic disease
01:47:34.120 is actually
01:47:34.940 only something you die of
01:47:36.140 if you don't die
01:47:37.440 from infectious disease anymore,
01:47:39.080 right?
01:47:39.240 It's something you die of
01:47:40.140 when you get old,
01:47:41.140 mostly.
01:47:41.960 And so,
01:47:42.660 it's something
01:47:42.980 we should actually
01:47:43.680 be happy about.
01:47:44.540 Most of the world now
01:47:45.560 dies from chronic disease,
01:47:47.880 not from...
01:47:48.500 That's the definition
01:47:49.340 of human progress.
01:47:50.500 It is.
01:47:51.800 Later death.
01:47:52.580 So,
01:47:52.860 if you think about it,
01:47:53.860 we're very worried
01:47:54.680 about the fact
01:47:55.200 that more and more people
01:47:56.080 were dying from cancer,
01:47:57.140 more and more people
01:47:57.760 were dying from heart disease,
01:47:59.520 cardiovascular disease,
01:48:01.120 in the world.
01:48:02.220 And we thought,
01:48:02.600 oh my God,
01:48:03.100 there must be something
01:48:03.720 in the environment
01:48:04.320 and stuff like that.
01:48:05.380 No.
01:48:05.680 We're just living long enough
01:48:06.780 to have it.
01:48:07.360 Yes,
01:48:07.640 exactly.
01:48:08.120 We've stopped dying
01:48:09.020 from infectious disease.
01:48:10.140 And this is even true
01:48:11.180 in the low and low
01:48:12.040 middle income countries now.
01:48:13.460 We're seeing that,
01:48:15.020 you know,
01:48:15.900 people live longer and longer
01:48:17.240 and now they will die
01:48:18.660 from chronic disease.
01:48:19.520 So we need to start
01:48:20.480 having a conversation about
01:48:21.640 can we do something about that?
01:48:23.560 So we work with
01:48:24.440 one of the big teams
01:48:25.640 from the John Hopkins University
01:48:27.240 who've actually done
01:48:28.480 all of these studies
01:48:29.260 and all of these things.
01:48:30.740 And so they gave us
01:48:31.700 a very, very long list
01:48:32.740 of the stuff that you can do.
01:48:33.860 And some of them
01:48:34.300 are really, really cost effective.
01:48:37.120 I'm just going to tell you
01:48:38.160 about two of them
01:48:39.100 because there's a lot of them
01:48:40.820 and most of them
01:48:41.420 are fairly small.
01:48:42.620 One of them is that
01:48:44.200 a lot of people
01:48:45.200 live with heart failure.
01:48:46.520 So it kills about
01:48:47.360 probably 350,000 people a year
01:48:51.120 that we could avoid
01:48:52.080 from heart failure.
01:48:53.400 It's basically the fact
01:48:54.380 that your heart is tired
01:48:56.560 and it can't pump enough
01:48:59.100 and it causes you exhaustion.
01:49:01.540 You get out of breath
01:49:03.040 and eventually it means
01:49:04.660 that you limit your movements.
01:49:06.700 You don't become as productive.
01:49:08.000 You have a bad life.
01:49:10.080 And one of the simple ways
01:49:11.180 you can do something about that
01:49:12.400 is give people diuretics.
01:49:14.260 So they basically pee more.
01:49:16.000 They get rid of some of their water.
01:49:18.280 It means that they become,
01:49:19.980 there's less that the heart
01:49:21.400 has to pump out to.
01:49:23.000 And so it's simply,
01:49:24.320 it's a very cheap way
01:49:25.480 of making sure
01:49:26.600 that people can live longer.
01:49:28.420 Now, they will still die
01:49:29.580 eventually from this,
01:49:30.580 but on average,
01:49:31.360 we can save about
01:49:32.180 350,000 people every year
01:49:34.980 and they will live
01:49:36.420 about six years longer.
01:49:37.540 This is very different
01:49:38.280 from malaria,
01:49:39.540 which is very much
01:49:40.320 about young kids.
01:49:41.780 This is mostly older people
01:49:43.400 that you can help.
01:49:44.120 So that's one way
01:49:45.240 it has a benefit-cost ratio
01:49:46.460 of 41.
01:49:47.600 The other thing,
01:49:48.780 and this has become
01:49:49.500 very prevalent
01:49:50.520 in all of the rich world,
01:49:52.340 is tackling people's
01:49:53.400 high blood pressure.
01:49:54.800 So the biggest killer
01:49:56.620 in the world
01:49:57.060 is cardiovascular disease.
01:49:58.740 So basically heart disease
01:50:00.040 and stuff that's related
01:50:01.200 to the blood vessels.
01:50:03.840 And much of this
01:50:05.320 is due to high blood pressure.
01:50:07.580 We have very,
01:50:08.700 very cheap medication.
01:50:09.900 A lot of people
01:50:10.700 in the rich world
01:50:11.560 are in heart medication.
01:50:14.200 Sorry,
01:50:14.880 are in blood pressure,
01:50:16.280 hypertension medication.
01:50:17.080 Yeah.
01:50:17.520 I am.
01:50:18.660 And, you know,
01:50:19.540 it has some cost.
01:50:20.460 You need to screen people.
01:50:21.480 You need to have
01:50:22.020 the doctor decide
01:50:23.160 which pills
01:50:24.420 you're going to get.
01:50:25.040 You need to go back
01:50:25.880 and check whether they work
01:50:27.060 once or twice a year.
01:50:28.580 And obviously,
01:50:29.280 you can do some of this cheaper.
01:50:30.640 So we're looking a lot
01:50:31.500 on replacing the doctor
01:50:33.300 with nurses.
01:50:34.120 Yeah, right.
01:50:34.540 And that kind of stuff.
01:50:35.680 And you also need to decide
01:50:36.940 what kind of drugs
01:50:38.100 do you need.
01:50:38.640 Some of them are very cheap.
01:50:39.600 Some of them not quite as cheap.
01:50:41.020 If you do the whole math,
01:50:42.320 you can probably save,
01:50:43.720 again,
01:50:44.380 about almost a million people
01:50:46.440 every year
01:50:47.800 at a benefit cost
01:50:48.880 of about 16.
01:50:50.620 So again,
01:50:51.220 a very good investment.
01:50:52.780 You can do a lot of good
01:50:54.100 for these things.
01:50:55.420 But,
01:50:55.700 and there's more
01:50:56.800 as Steve Jobs used to say.
01:51:00.740 There's also
01:51:01.460 looking at some of these things
01:51:03.260 that kill us the most.
01:51:04.220 So that would be
01:51:05.180 tobacco,
01:51:06.200 alcohol,
01:51:07.600 trans fat,
01:51:08.480 and salt.
01:51:09.680 We know these things
01:51:10.920 are bad for you.
01:51:12.080 Some of these things
01:51:12.940 are hard to do something about.
01:51:14.660 But some of them
01:51:15.140 are very easy
01:51:16.060 to do something about.
01:51:17.640 So,
01:51:18.020 for instance,
01:51:18.420 tobacco.
01:51:18.940 Yeah.
01:51:19.360 You can just simply put
01:51:20.500 in World Health Organization
01:51:21.740 estimate we should have a tax
01:51:23.100 that make them
01:51:23.900 four times as expensive
01:51:25.040 cigarettes
01:51:25.780 as the production cost.
01:51:27.640 Yeah.
01:51:28.500 That's sort of a target.
01:51:29.560 Yeah,
01:51:29.760 well,
01:51:30.000 I'm not much for
01:51:31.200 top-down government intervention.
01:51:32.920 But the fact that
01:51:33.640 since I've been young
01:51:34.600 smoking has just about
01:51:37.000 disappeared in Canada
01:51:37.920 and I just can't see that
01:51:39.100 as anything but a fundamental
01:51:40.240 social good.
01:51:41.120 Exactly.
01:51:41.800 So what we look at is
01:51:43.060 the cost of doing that
01:51:44.400 is,
01:51:44.680 you know,
01:51:45.300 naturally negligible.
01:51:47.500 You know,
01:51:47.900 it's just a changing
01:51:49.300 of some laws
01:51:50.640 and you need a little bit
01:51:52.140 of enforcement.
01:51:53.200 But the real cost
01:51:54.320 is the fact
01:51:55.340 that there's a lot of smokers
01:51:56.560 who will now not
01:51:57.560 be able to smoke
01:51:58.260 and they will have,
01:51:59.320 you know,
01:51:59.600 they're losing a benefit.
01:52:01.300 They clearly like
01:52:02.200 to be able to smoke
01:52:03.000 but that benefit
01:52:05.120 is vastly outweighed
01:52:06.960 by both the health benefits
01:52:08.440 that they will get
01:52:09.140 but also,
01:52:09.700 as you point out,
01:52:10.540 all the younger generations
01:52:11.820 who then won't be able to,
01:52:13.360 who won't take up smoking
01:52:14.500 because it's so damn expensive.
01:52:16.420 Yeah.
01:52:16.660 So fundamentally,
01:52:17.580 what we find is
01:52:18.360 that having a tobacco tax
01:52:21.580 generates a benefit
01:52:23.400 of about 105.
01:52:25.220 So a really,
01:52:26.260 really good investment.
01:52:27.040 And again,
01:52:28.060 it can save
01:52:28.760 about a couple hundred thousand
01:52:30.320 people from dying.
01:52:32.060 Likewise with alcohol.
01:52:33.840 Alcohol has all kinds
01:52:34.960 of bad effects.
01:52:35.780 Now,
01:52:35.960 people clearly like it
01:52:37.180 so you also need
01:52:37.860 to take that into account.
01:52:38.980 It's the cause of
01:52:39.800 and solution
01:52:40.400 to all the world's problems
01:52:41.860 according to Homer Sinsman.
01:52:43.280 Yes.
01:52:43.900 There you go.
01:52:44.940 And,
01:52:45.480 you know,
01:52:45.780 but it creates
01:52:47.180 a lot of accidents.
01:52:48.260 It creates a lot of violence.
01:52:51.000 Deep rape.
01:52:51.880 And you also get
01:52:52.880 people who commit suicide
01:52:54.380 because of this.
01:52:55.220 It has a lot of diseases.
01:52:56.440 And a little bit
01:52:57.460 like secondhand smoking,
01:52:58.820 it also negatively affects
01:53:00.180 a lot of other people
01:53:01.140 because,
01:53:01.520 you know,
01:53:01.680 it leads to spousal abuse
01:53:03.220 and child abuse.
01:53:05.040 Contributed to cancer,
01:53:06.300 especially with smoking.
01:53:07.540 Yeah.
01:53:07.780 So there are lots of reasons
01:53:09.240 why we want to regulate it.
01:53:10.700 Again,
01:53:11.140 you can both regulate it
01:53:12.380 through advertising.
01:53:13.700 So you can't advertise
01:53:15.200 in certain shows
01:53:16.040 and that kind of stuff.
01:53:16.980 And also through
01:53:18.020 just simply higher taxation.
01:53:19.780 Those things,
01:53:20.780 we estimate,
01:53:21.740 in total,
01:53:22.540 if you add up all of this,
01:53:24.200 will cost about $4.4 billion
01:53:26.120 but it'll save
01:53:27.760 one and a half million lives
01:53:29.620 every year.
01:53:30.740 Again,
01:53:31.720 this is just one of those things.
01:53:33.220 It'll generate benefits
01:53:34.620 of $23 back on every dollar.
01:53:37.700 It's not the very,
01:53:39.120 very best thing,
01:53:39.800 but this is still an amazing.
01:53:40.400 It's still a 23 to 1 return.
01:53:41.940 It's an amazing return.
01:53:44.540 This is one of the things
01:53:45.480 we should be doing.
01:53:46.560 I mean,
01:53:46.800 people are happy
01:53:47.520 when they can invest their money
01:53:48.580 and get a 1 in 20 return.
01:53:50.600 This is a 23 to 1 return.
01:53:52.460 That's 400 times better.
01:53:54.560 And yeah,
01:53:54.960 and it's not at the top
01:53:55.920 of your list.
01:53:56.760 All right,
01:53:57.100 number eight.
01:53:58.200 So,
01:53:58.920 land tenure security.
01:54:00.520 This is something
01:54:01.200 that most people
01:54:01.880 have no sense of it.
01:54:02.540 No, no.
01:54:03.000 If you buy an apartment
01:54:04.780 or a house
01:54:05.700 in the rich world,
01:54:06.940 you own it.
01:54:08.340 Yeah,
01:54:08.740 strangely enough.
01:54:09.640 Yes,
01:54:10.020 that's really,
01:54:10.720 really nice.
01:54:11.140 It means when you put
01:54:11.980 in a new kitchen,
01:54:13.300 you know,
01:54:13.780 it'll be nice for you
01:54:14.940 and eventually
01:54:15.700 it'll increase
01:54:16.500 the sales value.
01:54:17.520 Now,
01:54:18.040 in most developing countries,
01:54:19.900 you don't know
01:54:20.820 if you own stuff
01:54:21.760 because there's
01:54:22.940 really bad registration.
01:54:25.120 Hernando de Santos
01:54:25.880 or Hernando...
01:54:27.760 Hernando de Soto.
01:54:28.720 De Soto.
01:54:29.240 Yeah,
01:54:29.460 yeah.
01:54:29.680 He laid that out
01:54:30.560 very nicely
01:54:31.020 about 20 years ago.
01:54:31.920 Exactly.
01:54:32.700 He points out.
01:54:34.240 And I'm starting
01:54:36.060 to talk about
01:54:36.760 owning a house
01:54:37.640 or an apartment
01:54:38.780 because that's
01:54:39.320 what we understand
01:54:40.020 in the rich world.
01:54:40.840 But of course,
01:54:41.320 for the vast majority
01:54:42.520 of people
01:54:43.020 in the poor part
01:54:44.240 of the world,
01:54:44.720 it's about owning
01:54:45.820 your land.
01:54:46.660 Yes,
01:54:47.020 exactly.
01:54:47.500 The place
01:54:47.660 where you're going
01:54:48.040 to be farming.
01:54:48.840 You don't know
01:54:49.840 if you own this.
01:54:50.680 You have really bad
01:54:51.900 cadastral surveys
01:54:52.940 and you have,
01:54:54.500 you know,
01:54:55.100 these different scripts
01:54:57.320 typically in different
01:54:58.620 parts of the government
01:54:59.340 that tells you
01:55:00.240 maybe you own it,
01:55:01.440 maybe this other guy
01:55:02.260 owns it.
01:55:03.120 And there's a lot
01:55:03.900 of uncertainty.
01:55:04.340 No clear title.
01:55:04.760 Yes.
01:55:05.040 Yeah,
01:55:05.260 well,
01:55:05.400 the thing is,
01:55:06.000 there is no difference
01:55:07.420 between ownership
01:55:08.080 and title,
01:55:09.100 right?
01:55:09.720 You own something
01:55:10.700 insofar as no one else
01:55:12.020 can stake a claim to it.
01:55:13.660 And so if the title
01:55:14.380 is unclear,
01:55:15.440 because you kind of
01:55:16.280 think of ownership
01:55:16.800 as something like
01:55:17.400 physical presence,
01:55:18.500 it's not that.
01:55:19.440 It's undisputed,
01:55:21.060 it's undisputed sovereignty
01:55:22.600 over that territory.
01:55:23.760 And a lot of that
01:55:24.600 has to do with
01:55:25.220 the conceptual web.
01:55:26.200 The paperwork
01:55:26.600 has to be done properly.
01:55:27.840 The titles have
01:55:28.420 to be transferred.
01:55:30.460 I know De Soto
01:55:31.880 was so interesting.
01:55:33.060 He took out his teams
01:55:33.880 of economists
01:55:35.240 into the field,
01:55:37.420 into these tent cities,
01:55:39.580 you know,
01:55:39.780 these burials,
01:55:40.640 essentially,
01:55:41.160 because so many people
01:55:41.820 had migrated into cities.
01:55:43.000 And all these people
01:55:44.180 who were in these tent cities,
01:55:46.040 squatters,
01:55:46.960 so to speak,
01:55:47.820 had land.
01:55:49.460 But of course,
01:55:50.380 the boundaries weren't set,
01:55:52.080 and they didn't have title,
01:55:53.720 and so they couldn't
01:55:54.540 raise a mortgage.
01:55:55.560 So one of the things
01:55:56.300 De Soto did,
01:55:57.260 because almost all the people
01:55:58.300 that they were studying
01:55:59.200 had dogs,
01:56:00.220 and the dogs knew
01:56:01.060 where the boundaries were,
01:56:02.600 because dogs know
01:56:04.120 those sorts of things,
01:56:05.060 and they negotiate
01:56:05.680 with other dogs about it
01:56:06.880 quite intensely,
01:56:07.800 and other people.
01:56:08.560 And so one of the things
01:56:09.680 they used to demarcate territory
01:56:11.500 to start the process
01:56:12.620 of title registration going,
01:56:14.000 because the thing is,
01:56:15.940 if you're squatting
01:56:16.540 on a piece of land
01:56:17.360 in an urban area,
01:56:18.660 you're actually not poor.
01:56:20.500 You just can't capitalize
01:56:21.980 on what you own just.
01:56:24.040 And many,
01:56:24.980 many people
01:56:25.480 start their small business
01:56:26.680 by getting a second loan
01:56:27.920 on their property,
01:56:29.380 and so you can start
01:56:30.160 to capitalize
01:56:30.640 on what you own.
01:56:31.500 Can't do that
01:56:32.160 without title.
01:56:33.540 No, exactly.
01:56:34.860 So what we're looking at
01:56:36.140 is that most places
01:56:38.520 in the developing world
01:56:39.520 lack cadastral surveys.
01:56:41.400 It's basically
01:56:43.560 that you have
01:56:44.380 a list of everything
01:56:45.380 of all land
01:56:46.280 in your nation,
01:56:47.600 and who does that belong to.
01:56:49.260 So unless you have that list,
01:56:50.920 you can't write the names
01:56:52.200 in front of them.
01:56:53.240 You can't tax effectively
01:56:54.540 then either.
01:56:55.460 Neither that.
01:56:56.620 But mostly,
01:56:57.500 you just don't know
01:56:58.380 who owns what.
01:56:59.520 So you need to have
01:57:00.660 these surveys done.
01:57:01.900 They're called
01:57:02.200 cadastral surveys.
01:57:03.320 You also need to have
01:57:04.380 effective registration,
01:57:05.680 which is somewhat expensive.
01:57:07.760 What happens
01:57:08.560 when you do this,
01:57:09.260 and you're absolutely right,
01:57:10.340 one of the things,
01:57:10.920 and that was
01:57:11.560 Fernando de Soto,
01:57:12.500 he basically said,
01:57:13.300 this means that there's
01:57:14.200 a lot of dead capital.
01:57:15.300 You can't raise.
01:57:15.860 Yes, yes.
01:57:16.160 Frozen capital.
01:57:17.020 Yeah, he was talking
01:57:18.020 about $10 trillion
01:57:19.060 that the poor can't use
01:57:20.760 as collateral
01:57:21.700 for making a loan
01:57:22.600 that could actually
01:57:23.300 help them start a business.
01:57:24.540 And they're also
01:57:25.160 not motivated
01:57:25.840 to do improvements
01:57:26.660 on their property
01:57:27.380 because there's no evidence
01:57:28.500 that they'll only improve it.
01:57:29.620 If you don't know
01:57:31.880 if you own the land,
01:57:33.220 you're likely
01:57:34.000 to not plant something
01:57:35.240 that'll only give fruit
01:57:36.560 in, say,
01:57:37.100 five or ten years
01:57:37.920 because you don't know
01:57:38.880 if you're going to own it.
01:57:39.540 You're not going to take out
01:57:40.600 all the stones
01:57:41.260 because that'll only really
01:57:42.500 be a benefit
01:57:43.000 in the next 30 years.
01:57:44.500 Yeah.
01:57:44.700 So you're not going
01:57:45.800 to improve it as much.
01:57:46.800 You'll improve it somewhat,
01:57:47.880 but just not nearly as much.
01:57:49.620 And of course,
01:57:50.100 if you don't know
01:57:51.200 if you own the house
01:57:52.040 in the city,
01:57:53.180 so about a fifth
01:57:54.220 of all people
01:57:54.960 in the developing world
01:57:55.960 believe that over
01:57:57.340 the next five years
01:57:58.020 they'll be evicted
01:57:58.780 from where they live right now.
01:58:00.460 Right, right.
01:58:01.240 That must be a terrible thing
01:58:02.460 to have hanging over your head
01:58:03.920 and it certainly
01:58:04.660 affects your decisions.
01:58:05.340 Unbelievably demoralizing.
01:58:07.040 Exactly.
01:58:07.380 Right, and anxiety provoking.
01:58:09.040 So what we're trying to do
01:58:10.560 is to basically set up
01:58:11.660 this system
01:58:12.160 so that it's more secure.
01:58:14.620 And what you do
01:58:15.860 is then you have
01:58:16.600 this surveys,
01:58:17.380 you start working
01:58:18.620 with all these
01:58:19.240 different people
01:58:21.500 who might have claims.
01:58:23.000 Remember,
01:58:23.380 once you start
01:58:24.240 this process of saying,
01:58:25.460 who actually owns
01:58:26.500 this bit of land,
01:58:27.560 you will get
01:58:28.060 a lot of dissatisfaction
01:58:29.400 because people will say,
01:58:30.380 no, I own it.
01:58:31.080 No, I own it.
01:58:32.120 And then you need
01:58:33.080 some sort of
01:58:33.820 conflict resolution.
01:58:35.120 Some of it can be dealt
01:58:36.060 on the local level.
01:58:37.260 You'll also need
01:58:37.880 a lot more
01:58:38.860 court ability.
01:58:41.880 Yeah, access to courts.
01:58:43.520 Access to courts.
01:58:44.280 Yeah.
01:58:44.520 So in many developing countries,
01:58:46.140 it's already taking up
01:58:47.840 a third or half
01:58:48.980 of all civil
01:58:50.760 litigation.
01:58:53.020 Litigation.
01:58:54.100 Litigation.
01:58:55.580 That is land litigation.
01:58:58.060 And this will,
01:58:58.900 you know,
01:58:59.400 balloon certainly
01:59:00.220 in the first couple
01:59:00.900 of years
01:59:01.200 that you do this.
01:59:02.720 The benefits,
01:59:04.140 so that is,
01:59:05.220 those are real costs.
01:59:06.280 Yeah.
01:59:06.780 But the benefits
01:59:07.800 will be
01:59:08.600 that you will be able
01:59:10.600 to have
01:59:11.520 much more productive land.
01:59:13.120 Yeah.
01:59:13.400 So what we're finding
01:59:14.240 is on agricultural side,
01:59:16.560 you will basically
01:59:17.300 have 15%
01:59:18.300 higher productivity.
01:59:19.500 That's an amazing
01:59:20.220 opportunity
01:59:20.640 for people
01:59:22.760 in the land area.
01:59:23.540 Now,
01:59:23.800 this will also
01:59:24.360 be fairly expensive.
01:59:25.400 So we estimate
01:59:26.220 the benefit cost ratio
01:59:27.160 is about 18.
01:59:28.220 for cities
01:59:29.480 because it costs less,
01:59:30.880 there's less land
01:59:31.540 to document,
01:59:32.540 there's many more people
01:59:33.400 in there,
01:59:33.960 and the values
01:59:34.740 are typically higher there.
01:59:35.920 It simply means,
01:59:36.780 and we know this
01:59:37.420 from a lot of studies,
01:59:38.240 it simply means
01:59:39.180 that your house
01:59:39.920 or your apartment
01:59:41.520 becomes a lot more worth.
01:59:43.100 Right.
01:59:43.500 Simply because you now
01:59:44.380 know that you own it.
01:59:45.240 people are willing
01:59:46.180 to pay more for it,
01:59:47.200 so it's about 25%.
01:59:47.840 Yeah, well,
01:59:48.040 any uncertainty
01:59:48.720 about ownership
01:59:49.380 will reduce the value
01:59:50.460 of any given piece
01:59:51.360 of property
01:59:51.780 to almost zero.
01:59:53.280 Yes.
01:59:53.840 So the total cost
01:59:54.780 is about $2.2 billion
01:59:56.220 a year,
01:59:57.320 and the net benefit,
01:59:58.560 sorry,
01:59:58.820 the benefit
01:59:59.240 is about $49 billion
02:00:00.880 in increased productivity
02:00:02.520 in agriculture
02:00:03.260 and increased value
02:00:04.700 in cities.
02:00:05.680 Right,
02:00:05.900 and as you pointed out,
02:00:06.900 you're going to have
02:00:07.400 a substantial increase
02:00:08.560 in people's feeling
02:00:09.360 of security as well.
02:00:10.520 Well,
02:00:10.980 not just feeling
02:00:11.920 of security,
02:00:12.980 actual security,
02:00:14.520 because they're not likely
02:00:15.440 to be evicted
02:00:16.020 in the same way.
02:00:16.700 But of course,
02:00:17.360 economists would tend to say
02:00:18.540 that's exactly
02:00:19.820 what's reflected
02:00:20.560 in the price.
02:00:21.260 Sure, sure.
02:00:21.760 So we would tend to say
02:00:23.740 we've said that,
02:00:24.420 but absolutely you're right
02:00:25.580 that it probably means
02:00:27.040 a lot more
02:00:27.640 that you are actually
02:00:28.680 able to start
02:00:29.320 doing all kinds
02:00:30.020 of other things.
02:00:30.460 Yeah,
02:00:30.680 well,
02:00:30.820 you'll take risks
02:00:31.640 because one of the things
02:00:32.720 that stops people
02:00:33.520 from taking risks
02:00:34.340 is the degree of risk
02:00:35.380 they're already exposed to.
02:00:36.860 So,
02:00:37.340 because people can tolerate
02:00:38.260 a certain amount
02:00:38.900 of uncertainty,
02:00:39.740 but...
02:00:40.960 And also,
02:00:41.620 remember,
02:00:42.420 we're just looking
02:00:43.360 at what we know works.
02:00:45.020 So we know
02:00:45.640 that there's good evidence
02:00:46.580 that if you know
02:00:47.340 you own the land,
02:00:48.540 if you know
02:00:49.660 you own the land,
02:00:50.980 you will be
02:00:51.600 15% more productive.
02:00:53.200 Yeah.
02:00:53.480 But chances are
02:00:54.240 you'll also take out
02:00:55.120 a second loan,
02:00:55.740 you'll start a little business,
02:00:56.900 you'll do all these
02:00:57.600 other things
02:00:58.000 that'll actually make
02:00:58.980 your whole life
02:00:59.560 much, much better.
02:01:00.940 So all of the stuff
02:01:02.160 that I'm telling you now
02:01:03.040 is probably
02:01:03.800 very conservative.
02:01:05.300 Yeah.
02:01:05.740 It's very...
02:01:06.160 Well, that's another thing
02:01:06.920 I really like about
02:01:07.640 your approach
02:01:08.240 is that you don't
02:01:09.700 go out into
02:01:10.220 the derivative end
02:01:11.240 of economic projection,
02:01:12.520 right?
02:01:12.700 You're staying
02:01:13.140 fairly close
02:01:13.840 to the direct consequences.
02:01:16.100 And also,
02:01:16.780 you know,
02:01:16.980 look,
02:01:17.260 these are so good things.
02:01:18.520 We don't need
02:01:19.100 to exaggerate them.
02:01:20.560 And also,
02:01:21.340 and I think
02:01:22.120 this is important
02:01:22.760 for the whole project
02:01:23.520 you asked me
02:01:24.040 earlier on,
02:01:25.560 you know,
02:01:25.860 why should we
02:01:26.520 believe this?
02:01:28.160 You know,
02:01:28.440 yes,
02:01:28.780 these are people
02:01:29.820 from some really,
02:01:30.680 really good universities
02:01:31.400 and so on,
02:01:32.040 but it's also because
02:01:32.800 we don't have a stake
02:01:34.180 in any of this.
02:01:34.940 Honestly,
02:01:35.400 I don't care
02:01:36.720 what is the best outcomes.
02:01:38.880 You know,
02:01:39.000 I'm just looking at it
02:01:40.140 and saying,
02:01:40.560 all right,
02:01:40.840 this was what came out of it.
02:01:42.740 It could have been other things.
02:01:44.440 I'm not an advocate
02:01:45.720 for any one of these things,
02:01:47.100 except for the fact
02:01:48.260 that the evidence shows us
02:01:49.700 this is an incredibly good deal.
02:01:51.520 Well,
02:01:51.680 you can tell that as well.
02:01:52.900 And so,
02:01:53.120 another one of the things
02:01:53.980 I liked about your approach
02:01:55.080 is that there's no
02:01:57.100 acts being ground,
02:01:59.800 and the evidence for that is,
02:02:01.780 well,
02:02:02.260 there's no bias
02:02:03.400 in terms of the selection
02:02:04.560 of the domains
02:02:05.400 that you're attempting
02:02:06.300 to make progress on.
02:02:07.560 I mean,
02:02:08.240 land surveys
02:02:09.500 and the provision
02:02:10.540 of prenatal
02:02:11.880 and natal care to women
02:02:13.120 aren't in the same bin.
02:02:14.960 And so,
02:02:15.620 there's no implicit
02:02:17.720 or explicit agenda
02:02:19.200 happening here
02:02:19.920 except the ones
02:02:20.680 we already laid out,
02:02:21.580 which is something like
02:02:22.380 most amount of good done
02:02:24.220 for the least,
02:02:25.340 you know,
02:02:25.900 the least privileged people
02:02:29.120 at the lowest possible cost.
02:02:31.100 You have to accept that
02:02:32.100 as a reasonable framework
02:02:33.180 to begin with,
02:02:33.820 and you can debate about that.
02:02:34.940 But once,
02:02:35.780 having done that,
02:02:36.540 I do think you end up
02:02:37.440 with the kind of outcomes
02:02:38.180 that you've been describing.
02:02:39.400 So,
02:02:39.760 we're going to move on to,
02:02:40.980 I believe it's
02:02:41.980 issue number nine now.
02:02:43.320 I'm hoping you keep going.
02:02:44.380 I do believe it's
02:02:45.620 issue number nine.
02:02:46.540 And so,
02:02:46.860 what are we confronting
02:02:48.400 on that front?
02:02:49.100 So,
02:02:49.400 trade.
02:02:50.120 Trade is one of those things
02:02:51.440 that a lot of economists
02:02:52.400 tell you
02:02:52.840 are really,
02:02:53.800 really good.
02:02:54.780 It's an obvious thing
02:02:55.940 if you think about it.
02:02:56.680 We talked about that,
02:02:57.620 you know,
02:02:58.080 making your own toaster before.
02:02:59.660 Yeah.
02:02:59.860 If you have to do
02:03:00.540 everything yourself,
02:03:01.680 you're really bad
02:03:02.440 at all of them
02:03:02.980 and you don't get
02:03:03.820 a lot produced.
02:03:04.460 Make your own computer chip.
02:03:05.940 Yes.
02:03:06.520 Probably not.
02:03:07.040 That's not a good idea.
02:03:08.200 Yeah.
02:03:08.580 And so,
02:03:09.860 what we have basically
02:03:11.020 achieved is
02:03:11.860 one of the reasons
02:03:12.820 why we're so rich
02:03:13.620 is that everyone
02:03:14.420 does what they do best.
02:03:15.920 Yeah.
02:03:16.140 That's nations
02:03:16.780 and individuals
02:03:17.520 and companies
02:03:18.140 and then we trade
02:03:19.300 among each other.
02:03:19.940 so I do a tiny bit
02:03:22.380 hopefully pretty well
02:03:24.120 and then I get
02:03:25.360 everyone else
02:03:26.080 to do my Mountain Dew
02:03:27.560 and all the other
02:03:28.280 important things
02:03:28.980 in my life
02:03:29.540 and that's how
02:03:31.000 we all work
02:03:31.600 and that's great.
02:03:32.620 That really makes us
02:03:33.540 all much more effective.
02:03:35.380 We should have
02:03:36.120 a lot of trade.
02:03:36.680 It's also a way
02:03:37.300 of addressing inequality
02:03:38.540 in some fundamental sense
02:03:40.240 because if we set up
02:03:41.600 a landscape
02:03:42.220 where each person
02:03:44.040 can operate
02:03:44.880 at their highest level
02:03:46.680 of expertise,
02:03:47.340 well that's a pretty
02:03:48.080 good deal for them
02:03:48.820 but it's
02:03:49.780 and it means that
02:03:51.220 the largest
02:03:52.400 and most diverse
02:03:53.740 possible number
02:03:54.740 of people
02:03:55.160 can play the game
02:03:56.160 successfully
02:03:56.820 and it's an interesting
02:03:58.000 way of looking
02:03:58.620 at inequality
02:03:59.260 because you might think
02:04:00.500 well everyone
02:04:00.980 should contribute
02:04:01.840 the same thing
02:04:03.340 but that's
02:04:04.020 this is a way
02:04:05.660 of doing that
02:04:06.140 at a meta level.
02:04:07.060 It's like no
02:04:07.520 you should be encouraged
02:04:08.780 to contribute
02:04:09.500 where you can contribute
02:04:10.760 best
02:04:11.540 even by your own standards
02:04:13.080 where you have
02:04:13.820 real expertise
02:04:14.520 and it's a very rare
02:04:15.820 person you find
02:04:16.760 I have a lot
02:04:17.900 of very very
02:04:18.500 impaired people
02:04:19.160 in my clinical practice
02:04:20.260 you know
02:04:20.540 who are having
02:04:21.020 a struggle
02:04:21.620 in the broader
02:04:22.880 economic market
02:04:23.780 but it's almost
02:04:25.040 impossible to find
02:04:25.980 someone who doesn't
02:04:26.780 have something
02:04:27.600 that they can offer
02:04:28.700 that's of real
02:04:29.620 practical utility
02:04:30.580 on some dimension
02:04:31.540 and then a free trade
02:04:33.680 landscape opens up
02:04:34.760 all these different
02:04:35.440 niches so that people
02:04:36.560 can occupy them
02:04:37.360 regardless of their
02:04:38.180 underlying skills
02:04:39.360 and talents
02:04:39.980 let's say.
02:04:40.840 I would tend
02:04:41.700 to agree with you
02:04:42.340 I think we should
02:04:43.220 recognize the fact
02:04:44.180 that when trade
02:04:46.260 opened up
02:04:46.840 and we got
02:04:47.420 industrialization
02:04:48.360 in the rich world
02:04:49.120 it was basically
02:04:50.140 we took off
02:04:51.000 and the rest
02:04:51.820 of the world
02:04:52.180 didn't
02:04:52.460 that's one
02:04:53.060 of the reasons
02:04:53.500 why we have
02:04:54.180 we've had a very
02:04:55.380 very unequal world
02:04:56.460 for quite a while
02:04:57.340 now what's happening
02:04:58.460 is that a lot
02:04:59.360 of the poorer world
02:05:00.500 is catching up
02:05:01.340 and that actually
02:05:02.640 means that inequality
02:05:04.060 has dramatically
02:05:04.820 dropped
02:05:05.860 at least since 2000
02:05:07.380 a large part of that
02:05:08.200 of course is China
02:05:09.440 also some of it
02:05:10.260 is India
02:05:10.760 and that's bringing
02:05:11.880 up the bottom
02:05:12.500 and
02:05:12.720 absolutely
02:05:13.160 so this is
02:05:13.920 this is good
02:05:14.720 but you know
02:05:15.960 there is an argument
02:05:16.640 and that's one
02:05:17.480 of the reasons
02:05:17.860 why I think
02:05:18.380 inequality is somewhat
02:05:19.600 of a slippery slope
02:05:21.700 inequality is not
02:05:22.940 by itself
02:05:23.580 an amazing achievement
02:05:25.840 because one of the
02:05:27.160 simplest ways
02:05:27.980 to make sure
02:05:28.440 you don't have
02:05:29.000 inequality
02:05:29.420 is by making
02:05:30.020 everyone poor
02:05:30.800 yes
02:05:31.220 that's the typical
02:05:32.180 communist approach
02:05:33.080 for example
02:05:33.580 and that's not
02:05:34.000 a you know
02:05:34.640 not necessarily
02:05:35.360 most people
02:05:36.080 wouldn't see that
02:05:36.640 as a great outcome
02:05:37.660 and so
02:05:38.860 what we have
02:05:39.620 to make sure
02:05:40.100 is that everybody
02:05:40.820 can participate
02:05:41.980 in this
02:05:42.440 and one of the
02:05:43.240 problems that
02:05:43.940 have happened
02:05:44.420 so we used
02:05:45.300 to be very focused
02:05:46.160 on saying
02:05:46.560 we should have
02:05:47.020 more trade
02:05:48.520 that's a good thing
02:05:49.700 it actually means
02:05:50.540 that we all
02:05:50.960 become richer
02:05:51.660 but as we
02:05:52.840 increasingly realized
02:05:54.220 you know
02:05:55.200 with the battle
02:05:56.140 for Seattle
02:05:56.760 back in
02:05:57.260 was it 1999
02:05:58.260 and you know
02:05:59.280 the whole
02:05:59.640 the whole
02:06:00.700 Doha round
02:06:02.160 and essentially
02:06:03.460 the breakdown
02:06:04.080 and more
02:06:05.300 free trade
02:06:06.780 agreements
02:06:07.340 was that
02:06:08.440 a lot of
02:06:08.840 people realized
02:06:09.480 but there are
02:06:10.280 also negative
02:06:11.100 impacts from
02:06:12.000 trade
02:06:12.380 and that's
02:06:12.840 absolutely true
02:06:13.760 if you have
02:06:14.900 trade
02:06:15.440 and if you
02:06:16.360 have more
02:06:16.840 trade
02:06:17.240 it means
02:06:17.920 if you work
02:06:18.660 in an area
02:06:19.340 where you're
02:06:19.880 not quite as
02:06:20.580 good as the
02:06:21.020 guys who are
02:06:21.460 trading
02:06:21.780 you will see
02:06:23.440 your salary
02:06:24.560 drop
02:06:24.920 or you will
02:06:25.500 possibly
02:06:25.920 get an
02:06:26.440 point
02:06:26.460 or if you're
02:06:27.100 facing
02:06:27.560 corrupt
02:06:28.180 competition
02:06:29.400 I mean
02:06:30.180 this is
02:06:30.520 partly what
02:06:31.000 happened to
02:06:31.440 the working
02:06:32.320 class
02:06:32.760 in the
02:06:33.420 let's say
02:06:34.320 outside of
02:06:34.840 China
02:06:35.140 is that
02:06:35.520 the Chinese
02:06:36.260 were very
02:06:36.740 efficient
02:06:37.080 at providing
02:06:37.680 low cost
02:06:38.360 labor
02:06:38.640 but there
02:06:39.000 was also
02:06:39.340 no shortage
02:06:39.860 of corruption
02:06:40.380 in that
02:06:40.800 and unfortunately
02:06:41.740 the people
02:06:42.360 who paid
02:06:42.680 the highest
02:06:43.060 price for that
02:06:43.660 were working
02:06:44.180 class people
02:06:44.740 in the west
02:06:45.160 now they got
02:06:45.740 cheaper goods
02:06:46.520 and the
02:06:47.840 Chinese weren't
02:06:48.520 starving
02:06:48.900 and were much
02:06:49.460 less likely
02:06:49.980 to pose a
02:06:51.300 geopolitical danger
02:06:52.880 as a consequence
02:06:53.540 of that
02:06:54.000 but it was
02:06:54.840 still fell
02:06:55.360 disproportionately
02:06:56.060 on their
02:06:56.700 backs
02:06:57.120 and this is
02:06:57.860 sort of the
02:06:58.540 rust belt
02:06:59.100 of the US
02:07:00.320 and many other
02:07:00.920 places
02:07:01.240 some of it
02:07:02.180 may be unreasonable
02:07:03.180 and part of
02:07:03.820 China
02:07:04.020 but I think
02:07:04.460 it was also
02:07:04.960 just inevitable
02:07:05.660 that if you
02:07:06.680 open up
02:07:07.140 for a wide
02:07:08.260 range
02:07:08.760 of things
02:07:09.540 that you can
02:07:09.900 do much
02:07:10.380 cheaper
02:07:10.740 in China
02:07:11.240 and Vietnam
02:07:12.120 and many
02:07:12.540 other places
02:07:13.040 you will see
02:07:14.380 some people
02:07:14.860 who will actually
02:07:15.900 see their
02:07:16.420 pay go down
02:07:17.320 economists
02:07:18.480 were very bad
02:07:19.500 at doing that
02:07:20.100 and I've been
02:07:21.320 partially
02:07:22.100 guilty of that
02:07:23.940 we would just
02:07:24.400 say oh
02:07:24.740 everybody gets
02:07:25.600 much richer
02:07:26.100 which is not
02:07:27.480 quite true
02:07:28.000 a lot of people
02:07:29.020 get a lot richer
02:07:29.900 most people
02:07:31.020 probably in the
02:07:32.160 long run
02:07:32.500 get better off
02:07:33.120 but there are
02:07:34.060 some people
02:07:34.560 who are very
02:07:35.320 clearly in the
02:07:36.180 short and medium
02:07:36.940 term
02:07:37.260 not better off
02:07:38.560 and we need
02:07:39.440 to say that
02:07:40.020 so we've actually
02:07:40.900 done
02:07:41.220 I'm very excited
02:07:42.060 about this
02:07:42.520 particular paper
02:07:43.180 we've done
02:07:44.460 probably the
02:07:45.200 first paper
02:07:45.900 that actually
02:07:46.640 tries to look
02:07:47.320 at both
02:07:47.660 the cost
02:07:48.340 and the benefits
02:07:49.320 of free trade
02:07:50.660 we've done it
02:07:52.060 with a standard
02:07:52.620 free trade model
02:07:55.060 we're not
02:07:56.740 looking at
02:07:57.280 particularly
02:07:57.680 how do you
02:07:58.300 increase trade
02:07:59.060 we just simply
02:07:59.640 say let's
02:08:00.500 assume we
02:08:01.060 increase trade
02:08:01.940 by 5%
02:08:02.760 you could do
02:08:03.200 that through
02:08:03.860 a free trade
02:08:05.040 agreement
02:08:05.400 you could do
02:08:06.140 it by making
02:08:06.720 the transportation
02:08:07.600 cheaper so that
02:08:08.680 more people
02:08:09.260 will want to
02:08:09.920 transport
02:08:11.000 you could have
02:08:11.500 lower tariffs
02:08:12.180 there's a lot
02:08:12.700 of different
02:08:13.040 ways you can do
02:08:13.580 we're not
02:08:14.320 talking about
02:08:14.780 that
02:08:14.920 we're simply
02:08:15.340 saying let's
02:08:16.200 look at the
02:08:17.040 case of us
02:08:18.420 having 5%
02:08:19.300 more trade
02:08:20.240 what would that
02:08:20.900 do
02:08:21.140 what are the
02:08:21.820 costs
02:08:22.080 what are the
02:08:22.560 benefits
02:08:22.900 and it turns
02:08:23.960 out that
02:08:24.460 not surprisingly
02:08:25.240 overall we'd
02:08:26.260 be much better
02:08:26.940 off
02:08:27.280 the world
02:08:28.380 would be about
02:08:28.920 $11 trillion
02:08:30.280 better off
02:08:31.200 over the next
02:08:32.060 50 years
02:08:32.640 but there's
02:08:34.260 a cost of
02:08:35.000 about a
02:08:35.620 trillion dollars
02:08:36.620 and that's
02:08:37.940 the cost of
02:08:38.620 all the
02:08:39.320 people who
02:08:40.020 work in
02:08:40.740 import
02:08:41.260 exposed
02:08:41.960 industries
02:08:43.460 so you know
02:08:44.500 essentially think of
02:08:45.440 and this is
02:08:45.980 obviously an
02:08:46.540 old term
02:08:47.100 thinking but
02:08:48.940 think of the
02:08:49.560 people who
02:08:49.960 work in
02:08:50.500 t-shirt sewing
02:08:51.320 industries in
02:08:52.040 rich countries
02:08:52.620 yeah
02:08:52.920 they're not
02:08:54.120 going to have
02:08:54.540 a job in
02:08:55.400 5 or 10
02:08:56.080 years if you
02:08:56.700 open up for
02:08:57.180 trade
02:08:57.420 now
02:08:57.860 eventually
02:08:58.680 they'll be
02:08:59.200 doing other
02:08:59.640 works
02:08:59.920 and I
02:09:00.240 think there
02:09:00.760 are very
02:09:01.060 few people
02:09:01.540 who sit
02:09:01.920 around and
02:09:02.340 feel like
02:09:02.660 I really
02:09:03.640 missed out
02:09:04.160 on that
02:09:04.740 t-shirt
02:09:05.620 sewing
02:09:06.000 opportunity
02:09:06.360 so overall
02:09:08.400 in the long
02:09:09.100 run we all
02:09:09.580 get better
02:09:09.980 off but
02:09:10.340 there's
02:09:10.620 certainly
02:09:10.900 losses
02:09:11.640 those losses
02:09:12.740 are mostly
02:09:13.420 in the rich
02:09:13.980 world
02:09:14.660 because
02:09:15.000 and this
02:09:15.640 is when
02:09:16.000 you think
02:09:16.260 about it
02:09:16.540 it's not
02:09:16.740 surprising
02:09:17.120 because
02:09:17.720 they have
02:09:18.360 to be
02:09:18.720 yeah
02:09:19.080 that's where
02:09:19.640 you are least
02:09:20.200 effective at
02:09:20.960 doing the
02:09:21.380 stuff that
02:09:22.140 poor countries
02:09:22.840 do really
02:09:23.340 effectively
02:09:23.700 and so
02:09:25.040 what we
02:09:25.540 see is
02:09:26.060 that in
02:09:26.920 the rich
02:09:27.540 world
02:09:27.900 the benefit
02:09:28.820 cost ratio
02:09:29.620 of free
02:09:30.180 trade
02:09:30.620 or more
02:09:31.320 trade
02:09:31.660 is only
02:09:32.900 7 to 1
02:09:33.740 so you get
02:09:34.720 7 dollars back
02:09:35.580 you get
02:09:36.080 cheaper and
02:09:37.100 better goods
02:09:37.720 in Walmart
02:09:38.240 but yes
02:09:39.140 some people
02:09:39.660 also lose
02:09:40.360 out
02:09:40.580 and those
02:09:41.460 people of course
02:09:42.100 lose out in a
02:09:43.060 much bigger
02:09:43.500 way
02:09:43.740 they're the
02:09:44.260 ones who are
02:09:44.680 going to be
02:09:45.020 shouting at
02:09:45.600 the politicians
02:09:46.160 and likely
02:09:46.880 make the
02:09:47.480 politicians say
02:09:48.140 maybe we
02:09:48.860 don't want
02:09:49.320 voting for
02:09:49.880 Donald Trump
02:09:50.420 exactly
02:09:50.920 whereas in
02:09:52.480 the poorer
02:09:53.440 part of the
02:09:54.040 world
02:09:54.260 the benefits
02:09:55.500 vastly outweigh
02:09:56.940 the costs
02:09:57.760 so we're
02:09:58.800 estimating
02:09:59.800 the costs
02:10:01.860 of free
02:10:02.840 trade
02:10:03.240 is about
02:10:03.820 1.7 billion
02:10:05.020 dollars a year
02:10:05.700 that's not
02:10:06.260 nothing
02:10:06.580 but the
02:10:07.340 benefits
02:10:07.980 is 166
02:10:09.680 billion dollars
02:10:10.640 a year
02:10:10.920 so the
02:10:11.840 benefits
02:10:12.160 and this is
02:10:12.640 in the bottom
02:10:13.080 half of the
02:10:13.840 bottom half
02:10:14.720 of the world
02:10:15.160 95 to 1
02:10:16.720 so again
02:10:17.740 it's rich
02:10:19.200 people who
02:10:19.860 are saying
02:10:20.280 maybe we
02:10:21.020 shouldn't have
02:10:21.380 so much
02:10:21.740 free trade
02:10:22.240 although it
02:10:22.760 actually helps
02:10:23.400 everyone
02:10:23.900 it's the
02:10:24.960 poorest of the
02:10:25.740 rich people
02:10:26.240 who are most
02:10:26.780 hurt by that
02:10:27.420 which is not
02:10:28.300 a trivial problem
02:10:29.280 I get that
02:10:29.860 and we should
02:10:30.640 certainly address
02:10:31.260 that and we
02:10:31.940 should also
02:10:32.300 recognize that
02:10:33.220 even in the
02:10:33.700 rich world
02:10:34.140 we get $7
02:10:35.040 back for every
02:10:35.900 dollar
02:10:36.180 how do you
02:10:38.540 best address
02:10:39.240 the problem
02:10:39.820 of the poorest
02:10:40.680 strata in the
02:10:41.600 rich world
02:10:42.100 bearing the brunt
02:10:42.880 of the free
02:10:43.380 trade problem
02:10:44.100 well so I
02:10:44.840 think first of
02:10:45.680 all you need
02:10:46.280 to recognize
02:10:46.840 it's there
02:10:47.280 then you also
02:10:48.600 should say
02:10:49.140 we should have
02:10:50.000 much better
02:10:50.460 re-education
02:10:51.300 so these guys
02:10:52.500 should have
02:10:53.040 the opportunity
02:10:53.660 first of all
02:10:54.440 I come from
02:10:55.780 rich welfare
02:10:57.360 states where we
02:10:58.080 would take care
02:10:58.780 of these people
02:10:59.700 we would fund
02:11:00.660 them for many
02:11:01.260 years and say
02:11:01.940 you can get
02:11:03.360 unemployment insurance
02:11:04.740 for quite a while
02:11:05.940 you will get
02:11:07.700 re-education
02:11:08.780 you can do
02:11:09.380 all kinds of
02:11:10.040 other things
02:11:10.460 so access to
02:11:11.660 retraining
02:11:12.240 essentially
02:11:13.180 and re-education
02:11:14.740 sorry that
02:11:15.660 sounds like
02:11:16.160 it's a
02:11:16.480 hell of a term
02:11:18.120 so more
02:11:19.680 secondary
02:11:20.300 more education
02:11:21.940 that you
02:11:23.520 would get
02:11:23.860 all those
02:11:24.280 things that
02:11:25.020 would enable
02:11:25.540 you to now
02:11:26.180 get another
02:11:26.820 job
02:11:27.240 and of course
02:11:27.780 one of the
02:11:28.640 things that
02:11:28.960 can happen
02:11:29.420 is that you
02:11:29.940 actually realize
02:11:30.800 oh I actually
02:11:31.900 really like doing
02:11:32.780 something else
02:11:33.340 you get stuck
02:11:34.180 in one place
02:11:34.920 and so this
02:11:36.360 could also be
02:11:36.900 an opportunity
02:11:37.400 again that's
02:11:38.420 hard to sell
02:11:39.100 right at the
02:11:39.680 beginning
02:11:39.920 well you know
02:11:40.260 I developed
02:11:41.000 this software
02:11:41.800 to help people
02:11:42.540 develop a vision
02:11:43.360 for their life
02:11:44.060 you know
02:11:44.380 so what they
02:11:44.940 do
02:11:45.200 it's a
02:11:46.020 prioritization
02:11:46.760 exercise
02:11:47.260 that's akin
02:11:48.040 in some ways
02:11:48.700 to
02:11:48.840 it's a very
02:11:50.000 good thing
02:11:51.520 for people
02:11:51.980 to do
02:11:52.300 and we had
02:11:52.940 the
02:11:53.800 we had
02:11:54.840 students
02:11:55.420 I'll just
02:11:56.420 tell you
02:11:56.700 one study
02:11:57.180 they went
02:11:57.740 to a trade
02:11:58.280 school
02:11:58.660 a Mohawk
02:11:59.360 college
02:11:59.680 in Ontario
02:12:00.440 and they
02:12:01.900 sat down
02:12:02.420 and wrote
02:12:03.000 out a vision
02:12:03.660 for their
02:12:04.000 life
02:12:04.280 on seven
02:12:04.900 dimensions
02:12:05.360 and so
02:12:05.960 that was
02:12:06.440 the dimensions
02:12:07.100 are intimate
02:12:08.040 relationship
02:12:08.580 family
02:12:09.220 job and
02:12:10.460 career
02:12:10.780 education
02:12:11.560 personal
02:12:12.620 self-care
02:12:14.080 on the
02:12:14.460 medical
02:12:14.680 and
02:12:15.220 psychological
02:12:16.260 front
02:12:16.860 regulation
02:12:17.500 of temptation
02:12:18.300 like alcohol
02:12:18.920 and drug
02:12:19.300 abuse
02:12:19.720 and use
02:12:20.580 of time
02:12:20.980 outside of
02:12:21.700 work
02:12:22.260 right
02:12:22.680 so now
02:12:23.020 imagine
02:12:23.320 you could
02:12:23.560 have what
02:12:23.880 you wanted
02:12:24.400 now you
02:12:25.440 could have
02:12:25.700 it in
02:12:25.880 those seven
02:12:26.320 domains
02:12:26.860 five years
02:12:28.380 down the
02:12:28.780 road
02:12:29.040 how would
02:12:29.640 you strategize
02:12:30.300 towards that
02:12:30.900 so we had
02:12:31.760 students do
02:12:32.300 this for
02:12:32.660 90 minutes
02:12:33.300 when they
02:12:33.660 first came
02:12:34.220 into their
02:12:34.980 orientation
02:12:35.900 session
02:12:36.580 before they
02:12:37.240 went to
02:12:37.560 trade school
02:12:38.040 or night
02:12:38.740 they wrote
02:12:39.100 for 90
02:12:39.440 minutes
02:12:39.700 about what
02:12:40.140 they've done
02:12:40.400 in the last
02:12:40.740 two weeks
02:12:41.200 and we
02:12:42.080 decreased the
02:12:43.480 dropout rate
02:12:44.540 50%
02:12:45.960 and so
02:12:47.200 for a $10
02:12:48.180 intervention
02:12:48.860 by the way
02:12:49.420 and in other
02:12:51.320 studies we'd
02:12:51.980 increased the
02:12:52.900 GPA
02:12:53.780 35%
02:12:54.820 but what was
02:12:55.420 really cool
02:12:55.940 was that the
02:12:56.640 biggest increases
02:12:57.500 were among
02:12:58.560 the most
02:12:59.420 disaffected
02:13:00.380 populations
02:13:01.320 so the biggest
02:13:02.340 effect was for
02:13:03.320 minority men
02:13:04.860 and it was for
02:13:06.220 minority men who
02:13:07.040 had a bad
02:13:07.620 academic record
02:13:08.560 who didn't
02:13:09.260 have well
02:13:09.800 formulated plans
02:13:10.760 about what
02:13:11.180 they were
02:13:11.420 going to
02:13:11.760 college for
02:13:12.400 and so the
02:13:13.260 reason I'm
02:13:13.620 bringing that
02:13:14.000 up is because
02:13:14.600 in these
02:13:15.420 one of the
02:13:16.320 ways of
02:13:16.720 addressing
02:13:17.240 these problems
02:13:18.520 of a
02:13:18.960 transition
02:13:19.660 let's say
02:13:20.200 at entry
02:13:20.680 level economic
02:13:21.480 jobs that
02:13:22.040 would be
02:13:22.320 displaced
02:13:22.800 would be
02:13:23.560 also to
02:13:24.360 retool the
02:13:25.200 way that we
02:13:25.680 handle those
02:13:26.380 situations
02:13:26.960 psychologically
02:13:27.600 so that
02:13:28.180 people could
02:13:28.680 see an
02:13:30.260 expanding
02:13:30.940 horizon of
02:13:32.060 opportunity
02:13:32.600 instead of
02:13:33.280 just what
02:13:34.080 would you say
02:13:34.580 the forcible
02:13:35.160 removal of their
02:13:36.000 one source of
02:13:36.740 income now
02:13:37.400 it's not an
02:13:37.780 easy thing to
02:13:38.480 do but it's
02:13:39.320 not impossible
02:13:40.100 and I've worked
02:13:41.540 with lots of
02:13:42.060 clinical clients
02:13:42.760 who had to
02:13:43.260 make you know
02:13:44.240 lateral job
02:13:46.240 transitions and
02:13:48.160 if they could get
02:13:49.500 their attitude
02:13:50.040 properly oriented
02:13:51.200 and with a bit
02:13:51.800 of luck they
02:13:52.740 could take the
02:13:53.440 opportunity to
02:13:54.260 raise themselves
02:13:55.080 up the economic
02:13:55.960 hierarchy instead
02:13:56.800 of merely suffering
02:13:57.760 as a consequence
02:13:58.460 of the displacement
02:13:59.300 so these things
02:14:00.160 aren't impossible
02:14:01.000 so that's part of
02:14:03.080 what we need to
02:14:03.780 do yeah
02:14:04.280 maybe we should
02:14:05.120 have that
02:14:05.480 in our
02:14:05.900 but then we
02:14:08.120 have 13
02:14:08.680 and that doesn't
02:14:09.360 sound good
02:14:10.020 yeah yeah
02:14:10.420 right right
02:14:11.080 right right
02:14:11.620 we'd have to
02:14:12.120 add an
02:14:12.340 additional
02:14:12.700 okay so
02:14:13.860 so but
02:14:15.500 basically
02:14:15.860 increased trade
02:14:16.860 you will have
02:14:17.760 huge impact
02:14:18.980 for the poor
02:14:20.140 part of the
02:14:20.640 world and we
02:14:21.620 could do this
02:14:22.640 also well for
02:14:23.740 the rich part
02:14:24.220 of the world
02:14:24.600 so absolutely
02:14:25.680 so this is
02:14:27.460 so that was
02:14:28.480 what was this
02:14:29.140 well we're on
02:14:29.640 to 10 now
02:14:30.240 alright 10
02:14:30.800 so 10
02:14:31.660 is skilled
02:14:32.940 migration
02:14:33.500 so economists
02:14:34.640 like to say
02:14:35.280 we should have
02:14:35.880 free trade
02:14:36.660 so we should
02:14:37.100 have movement
02:14:37.520 of goods
02:14:37.980 yeah
02:14:38.300 but we should
02:14:38.820 also have
02:14:39.180 movement of
02:14:39.840 people and
02:14:40.860 this will have
02:14:41.760 a lot more of
02:14:42.600 sort of a political
02:14:43.360 dimension
02:14:43.780 yeah
02:14:44.140 people feel
02:14:44.940 somewhat uncomfortable
02:14:45.700 about some of
02:14:46.300 these things
02:14:46.620 but let me just
02:14:47.420 give you the
02:14:47.820 economic argument
02:14:48.520 first so a lot
02:14:49.320 of economists
02:14:49.780 will tell you
02:14:50.460 and I think
02:14:51.220 there's some
02:14:51.600 value to this
02:14:52.260 point if you
02:14:53.460 look at for
02:14:54.060 instance people
02:14:54.560 who work in
02:14:55.140 McDonald's
02:14:55.800 they have a
02:14:56.680 very very set
02:14:57.560 set up of
02:14:58.620 how should you
02:14:59.540 work yet a
02:15:01.300 person who
02:15:01.780 works in
02:15:02.160 McDonald's
02:15:03.040 in Nigeria
02:15:04.100 makes about
02:15:05.340 one-fifteenth
02:15:06.180 of what the
02:15:07.280 same person
02:15:07.940 with the same
02:15:08.540 skills get
02:15:09.840 in the US
02:15:10.720 this is simply
02:15:12.360 a question of
02:15:12.940 saying if you
02:15:13.720 live in a
02:15:14.200 country where
02:15:14.800 you're surrounded
02:15:15.380 by a lot of
02:15:15.960 other really
02:15:16.860 highly productive
02:15:18.100 people you are
02:15:19.600 also more
02:15:20.260 productive and
02:15:21.540 so what happens
02:15:22.260 is if you take
02:15:23.040 a person who
02:15:24.500 has grown up
02:15:25.740 in say
02:15:26.900 Nigeria and
02:15:27.540 we've done
02:15:27.940 we've looked at
02:15:29.320 those kinds
02:15:30.140 of cases
02:15:31.020 that have
02:15:32.360 had Nigerian
02:15:33.820 education and
02:15:34.840 then moved to
02:15:35.360 the US
02:15:35.820 they have about
02:15:36.880 five times as
02:15:37.760 much as high
02:15:39.040 an income as
02:15:40.200 if they'd stayed
02:15:40.820 back in
02:15:41.600 Nigeria
02:15:42.640 simply because
02:15:43.880 they're more
02:15:44.200 productive
02:15:44.580 they still have
02:15:46.320 had a pretty
02:15:47.660 bad education
02:15:48.500 which is why
02:15:49.060 they don't get
02:15:49.780 15 times as
02:15:50.600 much but they
02:15:51.340 get much higher
02:15:52.200 productivity
02:15:52.720 so economists
02:15:54.020 would tend to
02:15:54.740 say why don't
02:15:56.380 we let everyone
02:15:57.440 move
02:15:58.160 right
02:15:58.440 now if you did
02:15:59.500 that so there's
02:16:00.260 surveys for
02:16:00.740 instance Bangladesh
02:16:01.400 they asked
02:16:02.080 young people
02:16:02.740 if you could
02:16:04.080 would you like
02:16:04.740 to move to
02:16:05.240 another country
02:16:05.760 92% say
02:16:08.320 they would like
02:16:08.960 to at least
02:16:09.480 try
02:16:09.760 now a lot of
02:16:10.500 people would
02:16:10.840 probably return
02:16:11.620 because they
02:16:12.000 also you know
02:16:12.460 there's something
02:16:12.920 about your
02:16:13.380 home country
02:16:14.100 and all that
02:16:14.440 kind of stuff
02:16:14.840 but you know
02:16:15.420 a lot of
02:16:16.100 people would
02:16:16.500 want to
02:16:16.840 move
02:16:17.020 economists will
02:16:19.120 tell you
02:16:19.460 there are
02:16:19.820 trillions of
02:16:20.900 dollars to be
02:16:22.180 to be had
02:16:22.820 out there
02:16:23.180 so they're
02:16:23.600 talking about
02:16:24.060 you know
02:16:24.460 if you just
02:16:24.920 let out
02:16:25.440 you know
02:16:25.920 let everyone
02:16:26.480 move
02:16:26.840 it turns out
02:16:27.860 that the model
02:16:28.400 showed that
02:16:28.880 about 2.4
02:16:30.000 billion people
02:16:31.120 would move
02:16:31.560 to the rich
02:16:32.040 countries
02:16:32.540 workers
02:16:33.400 that's you
02:16:34.620 know like
02:16:34.980 five times as
02:16:35.920 many
02:16:36.140 four times as
02:16:36.860 many as
02:16:37.160 what we have
02:16:37.780 of all workers
02:16:38.580 in the rich
02:16:39.060 countries
02:16:39.420 so from an
02:16:40.500 economist point
02:16:41.040 of view
02:16:41.260 you just say
02:16:41.820 oh they become
02:16:42.480 more you know
02:16:43.360 productive
02:16:44.620 I think it's
02:16:46.080 leaving out
02:16:46.660 some really
02:16:47.360 really big
02:16:47.900 things
02:16:48.220 like
02:16:48.720 like the
02:16:49.320 carrying capacity
02:16:50.240 for transformation
02:16:51.020 in the countries
02:16:51.860 imagine just
02:16:52.760 building the
02:16:53.660 houses
02:16:54.000 and all that
02:16:54.580 kind of stuff
02:16:55.000 it's just
02:16:55.660 it's one of
02:16:56.760 those
02:16:56.920 I think it's
02:16:57.700 slightly
02:16:58.060 one of those
02:16:59.500 castles in the
02:17:01.660 air that
02:17:02.100 academics are
02:17:02.880 very good at
02:17:03.400 doing
02:17:03.540 I think there's
02:17:04.400 some point
02:17:04.960 to making
02:17:05.580 this
02:17:06.200 so you know
02:17:06.980 Tom Schelling
02:17:08.620 one of the
02:17:09.440 Nobel laureates
02:17:10.040 I used to
02:17:10.800 work with
02:17:11.140 he's unfortunately
02:17:11.740 dead now
02:17:12.280 he would
02:17:13.360 usually say
02:17:14.280 well if
02:17:14.940 if we could
02:17:15.780 imagine
02:17:16.200 if we worry
02:17:17.500 about poverty
02:17:18.140 in the
02:17:18.580 in the poor
02:17:19.220 world
02:17:19.560 imagine if you
02:17:20.780 could move
02:17:21.220 a large portion
02:17:21.980 of these people
02:17:22.560 from the poor
02:17:23.140 world to the
02:17:23.700 rich world
02:17:24.080 and make them
02:17:24.600 rich
02:17:24.880 that would be
02:17:26.100 good wouldn't
02:17:26.680 it
02:17:26.840 and yes it
02:17:27.860 would be good
02:17:28.340 but but not
02:17:29.160 if it means
02:17:29.860 that it will
02:17:30.880 make everyone
02:17:31.600 in the rich
02:17:32.400 world really
02:17:33.220 really annoyed
02:17:33.820 for instance
02:17:34.740 because it
02:17:35.400 actually will
02:17:35.980 reduce their
02:17:36.560 pay
02:17:36.880 many other
02:17:37.700 things
02:17:37.920 so look
02:17:38.860 this is not
02:17:39.820 going to happen
02:17:40.300 but what could
02:17:41.340 happen
02:17:41.680 that's what
02:17:42.220 that's the
02:17:42.680 proposal that
02:17:43.540 we're looking
02:17:44.080 at is
02:17:44.720 skilled
02:17:45.160 migration
02:17:45.640 so Canada
02:17:46.280 for instance
02:17:46.700 actually embraces
02:17:47.840 the idea
02:17:48.380 of bringing
02:17:48.880 in skilled
02:17:49.440 migrants
02:17:49.880 because it's
02:17:50.420 a great way
02:17:50.940 for Canada
02:17:51.600 to become
02:17:53.240 richer
02:17:53.680 but there's
02:17:54.900 many places
02:17:56.420 there's a lack
02:17:57.120 of engineers
02:17:58.740 and doctors
02:18:00.220 and so we
02:18:00.880 look at that
02:18:01.660 now remember
02:18:02.980 if you move
02:18:03.780 these people
02:18:04.340 from poor
02:18:05.040 countries
02:18:05.500 it actually
02:18:06.340 means that
02:18:06.780 the poor
02:18:07.100 countries
02:18:07.540 will lose
02:18:08.260 out
02:18:08.440 they will
02:18:09.780 have
02:18:10.040 what people
02:18:11.020 sort of
02:18:11.620 tend to call
02:18:12.880 a brain drain
02:18:14.000 but we
02:18:15.120 actually find
02:18:15.860 and that's
02:18:16.260 also what
02:18:16.660 most of the
02:18:17.120 literature
02:18:17.400 finds
02:18:17.840 is if
02:18:18.460 you move
02:18:18.820 them
02:18:19.000 they will
02:18:20.180 also send
02:18:20.960 more
02:18:21.320 remittances
02:18:22.020 you really
02:18:22.480 saw this
02:18:22.980 with Indians
02:18:23.740 in Silicon
02:18:24.360 Valley
02:18:24.660 right
02:18:25.600 because there
02:18:25.880 was a tremendous
02:18:26.440 brain drain
02:18:27.020 from India
02:18:27.500 especially from
02:18:28.120 the Indian
02:18:28.460 Institute of
02:18:29.080 Technology
02:18:29.520 to Silicon
02:18:30.020 Valley
02:18:30.320 but man
02:18:31.280 they dumped
02:18:31.720 billions of
02:18:32.440 dollars back
02:18:32.960 into India
02:18:33.380 and generated
02:18:33.940 a whole IT
02:18:34.580 industry there
02:18:35.260 that's just
02:18:35.740 like killing
02:18:36.880 it
02:18:37.140 that's a great
02:18:37.820 that's a great
02:18:38.460 example
02:18:38.660 and so
02:18:39.400 we actually
02:18:40.100 estimate
02:18:40.500 this will
02:18:40.960 even be
02:18:41.520 beneficial
02:18:41.980 for the
02:18:42.940 poor
02:18:43.320 countries
02:18:44.160 so the
02:18:44.520 center
02:18:44.740 countries
02:18:45.220 but of course
02:18:45.920 this will
02:18:46.440 mostly be
02:18:47.120 beneficial
02:18:47.560 for those
02:18:48.560 people who
02:18:49.000 are moving
02:18:49.620 to the rich
02:18:50.180 world
02:18:50.460 and it will
02:18:51.400 be beneficial
02:18:51.980 also for the
02:18:52.740 rich world
02:18:53.160 but because
02:18:53.820 these are
02:18:54.220 poor people
02:18:54.720 we're basically
02:18:55.480 making poor
02:18:56.100 people
02:18:56.400 any sense
02:18:57.680 of how you
02:18:58.260 prioritize
02:18:59.080 what skills
02:19:00.280 should be
02:19:01.080 required
02:19:01.520 or is that
02:19:02.040 a nation
02:19:02.500 to nation
02:19:02.980 analysis
02:19:03.400 no
02:19:03.940 we looked
02:19:04.480 at a lot
02:19:04.840 of different
02:19:05.280 interventions
02:19:06.200 and only
02:19:07.200 doctors
02:19:07.660 and engineers
02:19:08.560 will have
02:19:09.600 such a great
02:19:10.420 differential
02:19:11.940 that it
02:19:12.760 actually pays
02:19:13.500 more than
02:19:13.840 $50 back
02:19:14.620 of the dollar
02:19:15.040 because if
02:19:15.920 you move
02:19:16.400 your McDonald's
02:19:18.720 worker
02:19:18.980 you will get
02:19:20.080 benefit
02:19:20.460 but not
02:19:20.980 just nearly
02:19:21.540 as much
02:19:22.040 and there's
02:19:22.740 also a number
02:19:23.780 of costs
02:19:24.160 there
02:19:24.300 so what
02:19:25.300 you're doing
02:19:25.680 is you're
02:19:26.160 maximizing
02:19:27.060 the ability
02:19:28.080 of the most
02:19:29.560 in-demand
02:19:30.440 productive people
02:19:31.320 to move
02:19:31.660 and your sense
02:19:33.040 is that will
02:19:33.480 be a benefit
02:19:33.960 to them
02:19:34.300 but also
02:19:34.800 to the countries
02:19:35.800 that they've
02:19:36.200 left behind
02:19:36.680 and
02:19:37.020 yes
02:19:37.980 and also
02:19:38.580 to the countries
02:19:39.180 that they move
02:19:39.720 to
02:19:39.820 and we're
02:19:40.780 only saying
02:19:41.380 10% more
02:19:42.320 than what you
02:19:42.780 already have
02:19:43.440 so a country
02:19:44.500 that has a lot
02:19:45.120 will take in
02:19:45.900 a little more
02:19:46.500 a country
02:19:47.100 will take 10%
02:19:49.480 more of that
02:19:49.980 almost no
02:19:50.520 so basically
02:19:51.120 what it is
02:19:51.720 it's a more
02:19:52.320 intelligent
02:19:53.020 immigration policy
02:19:53.840 it's a politically
02:19:54.640 feasible thing
02:19:56.020 to do
02:19:56.340 and it turns out
02:19:57.520 that it'll cost
02:19:58.020 about $2.8 billion
02:19:59.080 but it'll generate
02:20:00.380 about $50 billion
02:20:02.200 in benefits
02:20:03.080 mostly to these
02:20:04.420 poor people
02:20:05.420 who are now
02:20:06.000 moving to
02:20:06.880 rich countries
02:20:08.520 and becoming
02:20:09.140 more productive
02:20:10.300 but also
02:20:11.060 because they'll
02:20:11.600 be sending
02:20:12.000 back money
02:20:12.860 and helping
02:20:13.740 generate more
02:20:14.520 education
02:20:15.060 and more
02:20:15.500 investing
02:20:16.540 as you pointed
02:20:17.560 out
02:20:17.780 more investing
02:20:18.600 in local
02:20:19.520 businesses
02:20:20.320 back where
02:20:21.860 they came from
02:20:22.340 so overall
02:20:23.200 it's a good idea
02:20:24.360 it's not
02:20:24.900 it's about
02:20:26.120 $20 back
02:20:26.960 on the dollar
02:20:27.380 so it's a good
02:20:28.420 idea
02:20:28.720 it's not
02:20:29.460 the best thing
02:20:30.560 we should do
02:20:31.240 but again
02:20:31.660 it's number 10
02:20:32.540 again
02:20:32.880 well
02:20:33.500 so
02:20:34.840 we should also
02:20:38.280 talk about
02:20:38.780 one other
02:20:39.420 infectious disease
02:20:40.500 so we talked
02:20:41.020 about malaria
02:20:41.580 but tuberculosis
02:20:43.440 so is this a side
02:20:43.960 shoot
02:20:44.320 or is this
02:20:44.780 number 11
02:20:45.280 no this is 11
02:20:46.040 this is 11
02:20:46.880 well if we're
02:20:48.240 counting
02:20:48.380 I think at some
02:20:50.120 point we need
02:20:50.600 to go back
02:20:51.060 and make sure
02:20:51.480 because we're not
02:20:52.000 quite sure
02:20:52.420 what the 12th is
02:20:53.140 but we'll figure
02:20:53.660 that out
02:20:54.260 but you know
02:20:55.060 11th
02:20:56.220 tuberculosis
02:20:57.080 and again
02:20:57.480 there's no point
02:20:58.140 we're not making
02:20:59.280 a list of priorities
02:21:00.080 we're saying
02:21:00.500 all 12
02:21:01.100 are amazing
02:21:01.920 things
02:21:02.160 so
02:21:02.960 oh okay
02:21:04.660 so they're not
02:21:05.260 necessarily rank ordered
02:21:06.240 within the 12
02:21:07.040 they're not
02:21:07.480 at all
02:21:07.780 okay
02:21:08.000 okay
02:21:08.460 and that's crucial
02:21:09.900 for us
02:21:10.260 because we're not
02:21:10.840 usually we would have
02:21:12.700 rank ordered
02:21:13.220 but these are so cheap
02:21:14.840 and so good
02:21:15.720 that we should just
02:21:16.880 do them
02:21:17.360 they're rank ordered
02:21:18.280 sort of if you will
02:21:19.360 compared to everything
02:21:20.480 else you could do
02:21:21.220 yeah
02:21:21.640 okay
02:21:22.040 so we're simply
02:21:23.000 saying let's do
02:21:24.420 those 12
02:21:25.000 so that's also
02:21:26.660 why they've been
02:21:27.380 jumbling around
02:21:27.500 so that would be like
02:21:27.760 advice to any national
02:21:28.800 government
02:21:29.080 do at least one of
02:21:30.120 these things
02:21:30.620 or two of them
02:21:31.120 at least one of them
02:21:31.480 or two
02:21:31.900 please
02:21:32.520 12
02:21:33.200 yeah
02:21:33.920 exactly
02:21:34.580 so number 11
02:21:35.900 is tuberculosis
02:21:36.760 so tuberculosis
02:21:38.620 is a huge disease
02:21:40.240 that's killed
02:21:41.100 over the last 200 years
02:21:42.060 about a billion people
02:21:43.160 yeah
02:21:43.460 you know
02:21:44.040 if you think back
02:21:44.700 in the 1800s
02:21:45.580 pretty much anyone
02:21:46.660 you know
02:21:47.500 from the 1800s
02:21:48.620 probably died
02:21:49.280 from tuberculosis
02:21:50.040 about a fourth
02:21:51.100 of all death
02:21:51.660 was due to tuberculosis
02:21:52.800 and all the
02:21:53.900 you know
02:21:54.220 the people who died
02:21:55.040 before that time
02:21:55.780 typically have tuberculosis
02:21:57.120 it's a very city
02:21:58.800 oriented disease
02:22:00.040 so we've known it
02:22:00.900 throughout human history
02:22:01.880 but it was really
02:22:02.640 only when people
02:22:03.580 got together
02:22:04.160 in big cities
02:22:04.720 you need a lot
02:22:05.620 of people
02:22:06.060 together
02:22:06.560 in pretty
02:22:07.900 dense areas
02:22:09.520 for tuberculosis
02:22:11.120 really to get going
02:22:12.120 so it happened
02:22:12.740 you know
02:22:13.080 around 1600
02:22:13.920 in European cities
02:22:15.640 we had a little bit
02:22:16.440 of it in Rome
02:22:17.140 back in ancient times
02:22:19.560 but this was really
02:22:20.500 something that came
02:22:21.260 to the fore
02:22:21.760 in 1600-1700
02:22:23.080 so in 1700-1800
02:22:25.940 in London
02:22:26.920 for instance
02:22:27.420 about one
02:22:29.240 of every hundred
02:22:30.380 people
02:22:30.860 died every year
02:22:32.540 from tuberculosis
02:22:33.900 so more people
02:22:35.640 died from tuberculosis
02:22:36.740 in 1800
02:22:37.620 than died from
02:22:38.540 all diseases
02:22:39.440 today in London
02:22:40.300 you know
02:22:41.320 it's just
02:22:41.700 outstanding
02:22:42.500 how much
02:22:43.440 this is
02:22:43.900 now
02:22:44.340 what basically
02:22:45.360 fixed it
02:22:45.920 was
02:22:46.220 we got
02:22:47.120 antibiotics
02:22:48.220 we know
02:22:49.060 how to get rid
02:22:49.660 of it
02:22:49.860 so we got rid
02:22:50.780 of it
02:22:50.980 around 40s
02:22:51.820 50s
02:22:52.220 so it
02:22:52.640 basically
02:22:53.400 drops down
02:22:54.060 it dropped
02:22:55.020 down before
02:22:55.520 because you
02:22:56.000 got richer
02:22:56.560 when you're
02:22:57.980 better fed
02:22:58.500 you don't get
02:22:59.140 tuberculosis
02:23:00.000 as easily
02:23:00.800 you sent people
02:23:01.860 off to
02:23:02.260 sanatoria
02:23:03.220 so we
02:23:04.940 think it
02:23:05.700 didn't actually
02:23:06.300 help very much
02:23:06.940 but it got
02:23:07.320 rid of them
02:23:07.800 so they didn't
02:23:08.960 infect someone
02:23:10.040 else
02:23:10.340 but
02:23:11.200 we basically
02:23:12.380 got rid
02:23:12.880 of tuberculosis
02:23:13.560 yet
02:23:14.200 it's the
02:23:14.720 world's
02:23:15.360 leading
02:23:15.840 infectious
02:23:16.340 disease
02:23:16.760 killer
02:23:17.000 so it
02:23:17.320 kills
02:23:17.540 some
02:23:18.100 1.4
02:23:19.160 1.5
02:23:19.860 million
02:23:20.180 people
02:23:20.580 it killed
02:23:21.440 last year
02:23:21.980 more people
02:23:22.720 than died
02:23:23.080 from COVID
02:23:23.580 so COVID
02:23:24.560 certainly
02:23:25.660 outweighed it
02:23:26.340 in 2020
02:23:26.940 and 2021
02:23:27.540 not in
02:23:28.420 2022
02:23:28.920 and so
02:23:29.920 tuberculosis
02:23:31.220 is back
02:23:31.680 as the
02:23:32.360 leading
02:23:32.680 infectious
02:23:33.100 disease
02:23:33.460 killer
02:23:33.740 yet
02:23:34.240 virtually
02:23:34.840 nobody
02:23:35.200 cares about
02:23:35.780 it
02:23:35.900 because
02:23:36.180 we don't
02:23:37.260 get it
02:23:37.600 anymore
02:23:37.940 it's just
02:23:38.620 poor people
02:23:39.660 it's marginalized
02:23:40.240 people
02:23:40.740 and so
02:23:41.960 in India
02:23:42.580 when they
02:23:43.960 got independence
02:23:45.080 in 1947
02:23:46.000 they realized
02:23:48.340 that they had
02:23:48.840 a huge
02:23:49.500 tuberculosis
02:23:50.660 problem
02:23:51.100 they had
02:23:52.240 about half
02:23:52.880 a million
02:23:53.400 people
02:23:53.840 dying from
02:23:54.560 tuberculosis
02:23:55.100 every year
02:23:55.620 last year
02:23:56.960 India had
02:23:57.800 about half
02:23:58.660 a million
02:23:59.000 people dying
02:23:59.680 from tuberculosis
02:24:00.380 now
02:24:00.800 admittedly
02:24:01.480 they've grown
02:24:02.120 to about
02:24:02.780 four times
02:24:03.320 the size
02:24:03.700 so it's
02:24:04.480 a relatively
02:24:05.300 smaller problem
02:24:06.120 but it's
02:24:06.600 still a
02:24:06.880 huge
02:24:07.080 problem
02:24:07.420 so
02:24:07.960 we can
02:24:09.040 save
02:24:09.500 most of
02:24:09.940 these
02:24:10.080 people
02:24:10.460 by
02:24:11.320 investing
02:24:12.020 in
02:24:12.600 two
02:24:12.960 things
02:24:13.340 so
02:24:13.680 it's
02:24:14.000 basically
02:24:14.400 about
02:24:14.800 making
02:24:15.060 sure
02:24:15.400 that we
02:24:16.420 discover
02:24:17.200 more
02:24:17.600 of the
02:24:17.980 tuberculosis
02:24:18.520 the big
02:24:18.960 problem
02:24:19.280 right now
02:24:19.740 is that
02:24:20.420 we believe
02:24:21.200 we don't
02:24:21.640 know
02:24:21.840 we believe
02:24:22.600 that about
02:24:23.060 10 or
02:24:23.560 11 million
02:24:24.560 people get
02:24:25.200 tuberculosis
02:24:25.780 every year
02:24:26.360 but we only
02:24:27.440 diagnose
02:24:28.060 about six
02:24:28.860 of them
02:24:29.580 so the rest
02:24:30.800 of them
02:24:31.040 are this
02:24:31.400 untreated
02:24:32.080 reservoir
02:24:32.620 now what
02:24:33.660 happens is
02:24:34.280 that when
02:24:34.700 you have
02:24:35.120 tuberculosis
02:24:35.800 you'll typically
02:24:36.460 go to a
02:24:36.960 doctor
02:24:37.180 but it's
02:24:37.540 also very
02:24:38.460 stigmatizing
02:24:39.620 to have
02:24:40.040 tuberculosis
02:24:40.640 in many
02:24:41.100 places
02:24:41.420 so you
02:24:42.220 kind of
02:24:42.520 go to
02:24:42.820 the doctor
02:24:43.260 and you
02:24:43.520 hope him
02:24:43.960 to say
02:24:44.560 oh no
02:24:45.080 it's not
02:24:45.440 tuberculosis
02:24:45.820 if you go
02:24:46.740 to a private
02:24:47.200 doctor
02:24:47.560 you do that
02:24:48.060 a lot
02:24:48.340 in India
02:24:48.820 and many
02:24:49.120 other places
02:24:49.640 the doctor
02:24:50.720 obviously has
02:24:51.360 an incentive
02:24:51.880 to keep
02:24:52.460 you happy
02:24:52.840 so he will
02:24:53.480 likely say
02:24:54.200 no don't
02:24:54.980 worry
02:24:55.220 take this
02:24:56.220 drug
02:24:56.620 this other
02:24:57.080 thing
02:24:57.340 take this
02:24:58.440 green powder
02:24:58.960 whatever it
02:24:59.520 is
02:24:59.720 and so
02:25:00.420 you don't
02:25:01.140 get treated
02:25:02.000 and 45%
02:25:03.280 of people
02:25:03.620 who remain
02:25:04.300 untreated
02:25:04.700 die from
02:25:05.580 this
02:25:05.820 so we need
02:25:07.080 to get more
02:25:07.760 people identified
02:25:08.700 you do that
02:25:09.360 by screening
02:25:10.080 you need to do
02:25:10.800 this in large
02:25:11.920 proportions
02:25:12.420 so these are
02:25:13.080 very marginalized
02:25:13.800 people
02:25:14.260 it would be
02:25:14.580 people in
02:25:15.060 slum cities
02:25:15.840 it would be
02:25:16.400 people in
02:25:16.880 prisons
02:25:17.240 the people
02:25:19.600 who do
02:25:20.040 mining
02:25:21.060 communities
02:25:22.300 those kinds
02:25:23.000 of places
02:25:23.480 where you
02:25:24.340 would screen
02:25:24.800 people
02:25:25.140 so in
02:25:25.720 Bangladesh
02:25:26.100 for instance
02:25:26.540 we work
02:25:27.020 with
02:25:27.280 the world's
02:25:29.700 biggest
02:25:29.960 NGO
02:25:30.720 that has
02:25:31.800 more than
02:25:32.720 a million
02:25:33.140 workers
02:25:33.720 there
02:25:34.000 they would
02:25:35.240 hire old
02:25:36.380 women
02:25:36.940 to walk
02:25:37.600 around
02:25:37.960 and knock
02:25:38.800 on people's
02:25:39.340 doors
02:25:39.560 and say
02:25:39.860 has anyone
02:25:40.500 been coughing
02:25:41.140 a lot
02:25:41.520 lately
02:25:41.880 and you
02:25:42.820 know
02:25:42.920 try to get
02:25:43.460 them involved
02:25:43.940 and then try
02:25:44.380 to get them
02:25:44.780 tested
02:25:45.140 and then you
02:25:45.660 can get
02:25:46.020 on treatment
02:25:46.540 most government
02:25:47.460 actually offer
02:25:48.260 this treatment
02:25:48.840 for free
02:25:49.660 but the
02:25:50.760 problem is
02:25:51.360 it takes
02:25:52.220 six months
02:25:52.940 to get rid
02:25:53.920 of tuberculosis
02:25:54.560 and if
02:25:55.580 you've ever
02:25:55.980 gotten
02:25:56.380 medication
02:25:57.020 you just
02:25:58.100 have to
02:25:58.420 take it
02:25:58.700 for 14
02:25:59.220 days
02:25:59.500 you get
02:26:00.080 better
02:26:00.680 after
02:26:01.140 a week
02:26:02.340 then it
02:26:02.920 becomes
02:26:03.160 hard to
02:26:03.580 remember
02:26:03.920 compliance
02:26:05.140 is a huge
02:26:05.800 problem
02:26:06.200 if you have
02:26:06.660 to do this
02:26:07.100 for half a
02:26:07.920 year
02:26:08.060 you're likely
02:26:08.960 not to do
02:26:09.540 it
02:26:09.680 so what
02:26:10.300 we're also
02:26:10.840 saying is
02:26:11.460 and we're
02:26:12.100 working together
02:26:12.620 in a way
02:26:12.940 that will
02:26:13.260 increase
02:26:13.760 antibiotic
02:26:14.920 resistance
02:26:15.500 right
02:26:15.880 absolutely
02:26:16.320 if you
02:26:16.820 stop
02:26:17.220 you suddenly
02:26:18.940 get a
02:26:19.400 situation
02:26:19.860 where
02:26:20.280 it becomes
02:26:21.640 a resistant
02:26:22.360 tuberculosis
02:26:23.140 and it
02:26:23.820 becomes much
02:26:24.560 more costly
02:26:25.100 and much
02:26:25.580 harder
02:26:25.900 to deal
02:26:26.520 with
02:26:26.660 and a
02:26:26.940 much
02:26:27.120 bigger
02:26:27.380 public
02:26:27.680 health
02:26:27.940 threat
02:26:28.260 absolutely
02:26:28.800 so what
02:26:29.980 you need
02:26:30.420 to do
02:26:30.760 is to
02:26:31.240 incentivize
02:26:32.160 people
02:26:32.480 one of the
02:26:32.980 ways is
02:26:33.380 you have
02:26:33.920 sort of
02:26:34.500 Alcoholics Anonymous
02:26:35.880 kind of
02:26:36.340 where you meet
02:26:37.140 once a week
02:26:37.840 and say
02:26:38.120 proudly yes
02:26:39.360 I took
02:26:39.720 all my
02:26:40.100 tuberculosis
02:26:40.980 medication
02:26:41.440 you can get
02:26:42.220 an app
02:26:42.700 you can also
02:26:43.700 have premiums
02:26:44.740 you get like
02:26:45.400 a juice box
02:26:46.460 or something
02:26:46.920 for every week
02:26:47.680 where you've
02:26:48.120 done this
02:26:48.560 where you've
02:26:49.180 taken your
02:26:49.580 medication
02:26:49.960 and it seems
02:26:50.740 a little weird
02:26:51.300 to pay
02:26:51.760 people
02:26:52.080 to take
02:26:52.520 their
02:26:52.700 medication
02:26:53.180 but
02:26:53.680 it isn't
02:26:54.580 weird
02:26:54.880 once you
02:26:55.380 understand
02:26:55.880 how likely
02:26:57.040 it is
02:26:57.340 that people
02:26:57.760 won't be
02:26:58.220 compliant
02:26:58.700 because they
02:26:59.640 deny they
02:27:00.220 have the
02:27:00.600 illness
02:27:00.860 or they're
02:27:01.360 skeptical
02:27:01.800 of the
02:27:02.200 drugs
02:27:02.420 or they
02:27:03.360 forget
02:27:03.880 because
02:27:04.460 you do
02:27:05.120 forget
02:27:05.480 things you
02:27:05.920 have to
02:27:06.220 do
02:27:06.360 every day
02:27:06.760 unless it's
02:27:07.240 really instilled
02:27:07.840 as a habit
02:27:08.420 so no
02:27:09.640 compliance is a
02:27:10.460 major problem
02:27:11.160 and remember
02:27:13.080 if you have
02:27:13.860 someone who's
02:27:14.400 untreated
02:27:14.820 chances are
02:27:16.040 that that
02:27:16.420 person
02:27:16.760 every year
02:27:17.300 will give
02:27:18.520 on the
02:27:19.180 tuberculosis
02:27:19.800 to somewhere
02:27:20.600 between 5
02:27:21.280 and 15
02:27:21.840 other people
02:27:22.440 so you know
02:27:23.620 by coughing
02:27:24.220 so the point
02:27:25.420 is if we
02:27:26.320 can get that
02:27:26.840 person to
02:27:27.280 take his
02:27:27.640 drugs
02:27:27.960 or her
02:27:28.320 drugs
02:27:28.700 it means
02:27:29.380 not only
02:27:30.000 would that
02:27:30.360 person survive
02:27:31.100 but he or
02:27:32.580 she won't
02:27:32.960 pass it on
02:27:33.620 and they
02:27:34.680 won't be
02:27:35.160 making this
02:27:35.820 multi-drug
02:27:36.900 resistant
02:27:37.300 tuberculosis
02:27:37.920 so we
02:27:38.820 estimate
02:27:39.260 that you
02:27:40.460 can do
02:27:40.820 about
02:27:41.080 $46
02:27:42.080 of social
02:27:43.220 good
02:27:43.480 for every
02:27:43.840 dollar
02:27:44.060 spent
02:27:44.360 it'll cost
02:27:44.900 $6.2
02:27:46.820 billion
02:27:47.340 but the
02:27:48.480 benefit
02:27:49.080 will be
02:27:49.940 and now
02:27:50.620 I forget
02:27:50.960 I have to
02:27:51.540 look at
02:27:51.860 my number
02:27:52.580 there's too
02:27:53.220 many numbers
02:27:53.780 in this
02:27:54.120 project
02:27:54.600 you said
02:27:55.140 about 40
02:27:55.700 to 1
02:27:56.000 so the
02:27:56.360 benefit
02:27:56.580 would be
02:27:56.920 about
02:27:57.120 $200
02:27:57.560 billion
02:27:57.840 so sorry
02:27:59.720 yes
02:28:00.040 it's because
02:28:00.600 I don't
02:28:00.980 actually
02:28:01.300 remember
02:28:01.680 that number
02:28:02.100 it's
02:28:02.600 600,000
02:28:03.620 people will
02:28:04.200 save
02:28:04.560 every year
02:28:05.700 for this
02:28:06.740 decade
02:28:08.100 but as we
02:28:08.840 get further
02:28:09.360 it's actually
02:28:10.160 an underestimate
02:28:10.820 of how good
02:28:11.480 it's going
02:28:11.760 to be
02:28:12.020 because eventually
02:28:12.920 we'll save
02:28:13.560 almost everyone
02:28:14.420 we'll get
02:28:14.920 tuberculosis
02:28:15.440 down to
02:28:16.460 200,000
02:28:18.200 so it'd be
02:28:18.580 nice to
02:28:19.000 target that
02:28:20.220 as a disease
02:28:20.860 to eradicate
02:28:21.660 if that was
02:28:22.180 a possibility
02:28:22.680 we've eradicated
02:28:23.500 smallpox
02:28:24.100 and damn near
02:28:24.620 killed off polio
02:28:25.520 we eradicated
02:28:26.420 smallpox
02:28:26.960 and that was
02:28:27.260 an amazing
02:28:28.020 achievement
02:28:28.540 but we haven't
02:28:30.300 gotten rid of
02:28:30.920 polio
02:28:31.180 and it turns out
02:28:32.040 it's really
02:28:32.920 really hard
02:28:33.480 to do
02:28:33.880 these things
02:28:34.720 so again
02:28:36.220 we should probably
02:28:36.980 be careful
02:28:38.000 about saying
02:28:38.940 we'd love to
02:28:39.680 eradicate
02:28:40.140 it turns out
02:28:41.320 that that's
02:28:41.680 very hard
02:28:42.220 smallpox
02:28:43.260 only infects
02:28:44.420 humans
02:28:44.820 it doesn't
02:28:45.480 have a
02:28:45.820 natural
02:28:46.220 reservoir
02:28:47.620 as tuberculosis
02:28:49.300 and many other
02:28:49.880 diseases have
02:28:50.540 and that's one
02:28:50.960 of the reasons
02:28:51.340 why it's much
02:28:52.520 much harder
02:28:52.980 to get rid of
02:28:53.900 right
02:28:54.160 so what we're
02:28:54.980 looking at
02:28:55.360 is minimizing
02:28:55.820 it to the
02:28:57.100 degree that
02:28:57.420 that's possible
02:28:58.080 so okay
02:28:59.180 so why don't
02:28:59.820 you take a
02:29:00.280 look at the
02:29:00.640 list
02:29:00.820 well I
02:29:01.180 remember it
02:29:01.940 now
02:29:02.120 because we
02:29:02.480 just talked
02:29:02.980 about it
02:29:03.340 so number
02:29:04.080 12
02:29:04.440 is childhood
02:29:05.640 vaccination
02:29:06.260 so you know
02:29:07.880 obviously we know
02:29:08.980 that vaccinations
02:29:09.640 are incredibly
02:29:10.700 good
02:29:11.140 we've
02:29:12.140 as you
02:29:13.080 pointed out
02:29:13.620 with smallpox
02:29:14.360 we've gotten
02:29:14.920 rid of smallpox
02:29:15.720 smallpox was
02:29:16.800 a reason why
02:29:17.680 we started
02:29:18.200 with vaccinations
02:29:19.040 it was
02:29:19.460 you know
02:29:19.680 it probably
02:29:21.000 from before
02:29:22.040 1900
02:29:22.620 we estimated
02:29:23.260 that one in
02:29:24.580 seven people
02:29:25.280 of everyone
02:29:26.120 who's ever
02:29:26.680 lived on the
02:29:27.180 planet
02:29:27.460 died from
02:29:28.180 smallpox
02:29:28.720 and basically
02:29:31.080 we got rid of it
02:29:31.960 it killed about
02:29:32.540 300 million
02:29:33.240 in the 20th
02:29:34.440 century
02:29:34.720 and then we
02:29:35.400 got rid of it
02:29:35.980 last documented
02:29:37.600 case was 1978
02:29:38.760 this is an
02:29:39.840 amazing achievement
02:29:40.800 we estimate
02:29:41.460 hopefully there's
02:29:42.240 no lab in Wuhan
02:29:43.180 that's recooking
02:29:44.160 it up
02:29:44.500 that's true
02:29:45.260 oh now you
02:29:46.660 just left me
02:29:47.220 with that bad
02:29:47.860 image in my head
02:29:49.260 anyway so
02:29:50.020 so you know
02:29:50.860 fundamentally
02:29:51.480 if we hadn't
02:29:52.920 gotten rid of it
02:29:53.600 we estimate
02:29:54.220 that every year
02:29:54.960 we would have
02:29:55.500 about 5 million
02:29:56.440 people dying
02:29:57.460 from smallpox
02:29:58.160 that's just
02:29:58.800 an incredible
02:29:59.520 achievement
02:29:59.920 we've gotten
02:30:00.700 rid of a lot
02:30:01.620 of measles
02:30:02.440 so we give
02:30:03.380 you know
02:30:03.760 kids measles
02:30:05.200 vaccinations
02:30:05.780 by all means
02:30:06.640 please get
02:30:07.220 your measles
02:30:07.660 vaccination
02:30:08.040 there's a few
02:30:08.960 people who
02:30:09.320 don't get it
02:30:09.760 and that's a
02:30:10.120 very bad idea
02:30:10.740 it saves
02:30:11.460 you know
02:30:11.960 literally
02:30:12.520 millions of
02:30:13.520 children's lives
02:30:14.540 we have
02:30:15.840 we have
02:30:16.460 pertussis
02:30:17.140 and tetanus
02:30:18.380 and we have
02:30:18.920 lots of other
02:30:19.560 things that we're
02:30:20.520 vaccinating against
02:30:21.460 we're increasingly
02:30:22.480 starting to vaccinate
02:30:23.660 against a lot
02:30:24.540 of other things
02:30:25.060 you probably
02:30:26.180 haven't heard
02:30:26.820 or maybe
02:30:27.680 haven't heard
02:30:28.120 about
02:30:28.400 rotaviruses
02:30:29.480 so you know
02:30:30.520 the major part
02:30:31.300 of why a lot
02:30:32.380 of children
02:30:32.780 get diarrhea
02:30:33.900 if you get
02:30:34.720 rotavirus vaccinations
02:30:35.920 you can actually
02:30:36.580 reduce the amount
02:30:37.320 of diarrhea
02:30:38.200 and also reduce
02:30:39.160 the number
02:30:39.500 of kids
02:30:40.220 that die
02:30:40.660 great investment
02:30:42.000 we're also
02:30:42.660 starting to vaccinate
02:30:43.620 against stuff
02:30:44.420 that only happens
02:30:45.240 far into the future
02:30:46.400 so for instance
02:30:47.920 hepatitis B
02:30:49.380 that's not something
02:30:51.060 that kids die
02:30:51.920 from now
02:30:52.380 but if you're
02:30:52.880 vaccinated now
02:30:53.620 it means they
02:30:54.680 avoid getting
02:30:55.440 you know
02:30:55.980 a chronic
02:30:56.700 liver disease
02:30:57.940 and eventually
02:30:58.600 die from
02:30:59.200 liver cancer
02:30:59.880 when they become
02:31:01.060 old
02:31:01.380 if you vaccinate
02:31:02.680 against human
02:31:03.640 papillomavirus
02:31:04.440 HPV
02:31:05.840 you avoid
02:31:07.060 especially
02:31:07.840 girls
02:31:08.760 getting cervical
02:31:09.960 cancer
02:31:10.420 these are all
02:31:11.860 great investments
02:31:12.640 and what we show
02:31:13.620 is if you
02:31:14.700 actually spent
02:31:15.720 an extra
02:31:16.760 1.7 million
02:31:18.400 dollars
02:31:18.980 this is what
02:31:19.740 Gavi
02:31:20.280 so the global
02:31:21.220 alliance for a
02:31:21.860 vaccine
02:31:22.200 they're projecting
02:31:23.260 that they could
02:31:24.040 do more
02:31:24.960 into the future
02:31:25.660 so they're already
02:31:26.380 vaccinated
02:31:27.000 a lot of people
02:31:27.860 did you say
02:31:28.860 million or billion
02:31:29.740 so billion
02:31:30.620 yes
02:31:30.980 1.7 billion
02:31:31.820 it's not that cheap
02:31:33.460 but if you did
02:31:35.460 that you could
02:31:36.320 save an extra
02:31:37.420 half a million
02:31:38.440 kids dying
02:31:39.500 every year
02:31:40.140 kids
02:31:41.060 a few
02:31:41.980 old people
02:31:43.320 as well
02:31:43.680 from the
02:31:45.120 hepatitis B
02:31:46.300 and so on
02:31:46.720 so the point
02:31:48.040 here being
02:31:48.580 again
02:31:49.020 you could get
02:31:49.900 48 dollars
02:31:50.920 back on
02:31:51.640 each dollar
02:31:52.400 spent
02:31:52.740 the beauty
02:31:54.000 of this
02:31:54.360 is again
02:31:55.060 it's something
02:31:55.880 we know
02:31:56.340 how to do
02:31:56.900 it's not
02:31:57.700 rocket science
02:31:58.480 it's very
02:31:59.080 very simple
02:31:59.600 to do
02:32:00.360 so again
02:32:01.000 I've basically
02:32:02.100 given you an
02:32:02.660 outline of
02:32:03.180 12 amazing
02:32:03.920 things
02:32:04.280 and these
02:32:04.780 I hope
02:32:05.760 they're sort
02:32:06.220 of interesting
02:32:06.800 stories
02:32:07.220 and they
02:32:07.520 sort of
02:32:07.800 give us
02:32:08.120 both a
02:32:09.460 perspective
02:32:09.840 of how far
02:32:10.740 we've come
02:32:11.260 but also
02:32:12.040 how the
02:32:13.040 poorest part
02:32:13.720 of the world
02:32:14.180 still needs
02:32:15.040 to come further
02:32:15.640 and we know
02:32:16.460 how to do this
02:32:17.180 for 35 billion
02:32:18.940 dollars in total
02:32:19.660 so it's 41 billion
02:32:20.840 but 6 billion
02:32:21.720 is in consumer
02:32:22.980 costs
02:32:23.380 so these are
02:32:24.160 the costs
02:32:24.520 of you know
02:32:25.020 you don't
02:32:25.900 get to enjoy
02:32:26.840 your tobacco
02:32:27.500 that you need
02:32:28.920 to go to a
02:32:29.620 clinic
02:32:29.840 and actually
02:32:30.420 take a bus
02:32:30.960 ticket
02:32:31.200 but it's
02:32:31.520 not something
02:32:31.920 we need
02:32:32.300 public resources
02:32:33.320 for
02:32:33.600 35 billion
02:32:34.780 dollars
02:32:35.140 and you could
02:32:36.260 get benefits
02:32:36.940 so you could
02:32:37.720 save 4.2
02:32:39.160 million people's
02:32:40.580 lives every year
02:32:41.320 that's across
02:32:42.360 the 12
02:32:42.840 that's across
02:32:43.620 the 12
02:32:44.040 yeah
02:32:44.280 and you could
02:32:45.480 get benefits
02:32:46.560 economic benefits
02:32:48.160 of 1.1 trillion
02:32:49.760 dollars
02:32:50.080 so that's
02:32:50.820 about one dollar
02:32:51.780 per person
02:32:52.580 per day
02:32:53.040 in the poor
02:32:53.740 part of the
02:32:54.180 world
02:32:54.380 for 35 billion
02:32:56.260 so again
02:32:57.200 what I would
02:32:58.080 love to see
02:32:58.700 is that we
02:32:59.240 engage
02:32:59.700 Global Affairs
02:33:01.040 Canada
02:33:01.380 that's not
02:33:01.880 what it's
02:33:02.160 called anymore
02:33:02.700 USAID
02:33:03.740 GIZ
02:33:04.440 the Japanese
02:33:05.280 government
02:33:05.980 but also
02:33:06.680 all governments
02:33:07.440 in the world
02:33:07.940 and all good
02:33:08.900 people of will
02:33:09.580 and if there's
02:33:10.580 somebody out there
02:33:11.380 listening who
02:33:11.960 have a billion
02:33:12.580 dollars
02:33:13.000 that's what
02:33:14.200 you should be
02:33:14.720 spending your
02:33:15.160 money on
02:33:15.640 that's the
02:33:16.900 kind of thing
02:33:17.480 where we could
02:33:18.120 make an
02:33:18.620 incredible amount
02:33:19.760 of effort
02:33:20.820 sorry
02:33:21.640 incredible amount
02:33:22.740 of impact
02:33:23.280 at very low
02:33:24.080 cost
02:33:24.380 well you know
02:33:24.800 there is
02:33:25.220 obviously
02:33:25.940 this hunger
02:33:27.720 perhaps
02:33:29.600 more particular
02:33:30.740 particularly in
02:33:32.220 the developed
02:33:32.640 world
02:33:33.040 perhaps because
02:33:34.140 people now
02:33:34.680 have the luxury
02:33:35.620 of contemplating
02:33:36.440 such things
02:33:37.200 to be engaged
02:33:39.440 in some
02:33:40.020 enterprise
02:33:40.600 that is
02:33:41.480 aimed at
02:33:42.360 some
02:33:42.700 transcendent
02:33:43.680 good
02:33:43.920 let's say
02:33:44.440 and like I
02:33:45.380 see the
02:33:45.960 climate
02:33:46.720 apocalyptic
02:33:47.540 catastrophizing
02:33:48.780 as a form
02:33:49.780 of religious
02:33:50.560 striving
02:33:51.320 I think
02:33:52.160 it's
02:33:52.820 unsophisticated
02:33:54.840 and ill-aimed
02:33:56.300 and contaminated
02:33:57.140 with a fair bit
02:33:57.940 of malevolence
02:33:58.600 but by the same
02:33:59.440 token I see
02:34:00.180 the reason that
02:34:00.760 it's attractive
02:34:01.240 to young people
02:34:01.960 as we mentioned
02:34:02.920 earlier is that
02:34:03.720 there is some
02:34:04.720 sense that
02:34:05.520 while you should
02:34:06.660 atone for your
02:34:07.380 privilege
02:34:07.860 we are rich
02:34:08.740 in the west
02:34:09.340 and some of
02:34:10.440 that's a consequence
02:34:11.120 of our own
02:34:11.980 diligence
02:34:13.020 striving forward
02:34:13.920 but some of
02:34:14.960 it's a consequence
02:34:15.640 of being
02:34:16.240 arbitrarily born
02:34:17.400 in a favorable
02:34:18.040 place
02:34:18.620 and so
02:34:19.040 I think
02:34:19.700 everyone feels
02:34:20.860 that there's
02:34:21.500 something morally
02:34:22.620 incumbent upon
02:34:23.780 them to return
02:34:24.980 in proportion
02:34:25.880 to what they've
02:34:26.480 received
02:34:26.980 and then that's
02:34:27.980 channeled into
02:34:28.660 a kind of
02:34:29.160 apocalyptic
02:34:29.660 hysteria
02:34:30.460 and that's
02:34:32.140 unfortunate
02:34:33.280 and produces
02:34:34.140 kickback effects
02:34:35.200 that aren't good
02:34:35.920 I mean
02:34:36.440 correct me if you
02:34:37.900 think I'm wrong
02:34:38.520 but I look at
02:34:39.100 Germany now
02:34:39.720 and I think
02:34:40.160 well look guys
02:34:41.260 you're hyper
02:34:42.900 concerned about
02:34:43.560 the planet
02:34:44.040 you've reduced
02:34:44.680 that to carbon
02:34:45.460 you've put in
02:34:46.640 place these
02:34:47.220 incredibly expensive
02:34:48.260 energy proposals
02:34:49.640 that have
02:34:50.300 quintupled the
02:34:51.480 cost of energy
02:34:52.200 roughly speaking
02:34:53.140 made it much
02:34:54.480 more unreliable
02:34:55.380 made Germany
02:34:56.140 much more
02:34:56.620 dependent on
02:34:57.240 single points
02:34:57.840 failure like
02:34:58.500 Russia
02:34:58.900 for distribution
02:35:00.460 and supply
02:35:01.220 but worst of
02:35:02.260 all perhaps
02:35:03.160 also increase
02:35:05.220 the pollution
02:35:06.320 that's produced
02:35:07.220 by the energy
02:35:08.020 generating enterprises
02:35:09.080 rather than
02:35:09.640 made it better
02:35:10.220 and that just
02:35:10.960 seems like a
02:35:11.520 really bad
02:35:12.020 strategy right
02:35:12.800 it doesn't even
02:35:13.380 succeed by the
02:35:15.100 criteria laid down
02:35:16.340 by the people
02:35:16.920 who are aiming
02:35:17.320 at the outcome
02:35:17.960 and I look
02:35:18.940 at your
02:35:19.420 strategy
02:35:20.800 which is very
02:35:21.660 low cost
02:35:22.220 and I think
02:35:22.680 well here's a
02:35:23.720 place where
02:35:24.180 everyone could
02:35:25.020 have the
02:35:25.300 opportunity to
02:35:25.940 contribute in a
02:35:26.720 dozen ways
02:35:27.520 all of which
02:35:28.220 are I think
02:35:29.080 self-evidently
02:35:30.700 good
02:35:31.000 we could argue
02:35:31.740 about the
02:35:32.160 details of
02:35:32.740 implementation
02:35:33.200 and you know
02:35:34.460 you mentioned
02:35:34.980 for example
02:35:35.500 on the
02:35:35.820 immigration front
02:35:36.520 that there are
02:35:36.940 political
02:35:37.240 complexities
02:35:37.760 that have to
02:35:38.360 be taken
02:35:38.720 into account
02:35:39.280 there
02:35:39.500 but mostly
02:35:40.420 your
02:35:40.900 propositions
02:35:42.480 were
02:35:42.900 well let's
02:35:44.120 make our
02:35:44.460 immigration policy
02:35:45.500 somewhat more
02:35:46.680 intelligent
02:35:47.280 which is not
02:35:48.360 that radical
02:35:49.040 a solution
02:35:49.620 and I can't
02:35:50.560 see why
02:35:51.060 people couldn't
02:35:52.580 be on board
02:35:53.080 with this
02:35:53.520 if
02:35:53.780 well
02:35:55.920 and I do
02:35:57.720 think mostly
02:35:58.380 it's ignorance
02:35:58.960 that's stopping
02:35:59.580 it from happening
02:36:00.300 right I mean
02:36:00.780 we've really only
02:36:01.500 been wrestling
02:36:02.060 with these
02:36:02.560 large-scale
02:36:03.120 global problems
02:36:04.160 conceptually
02:36:06.000 since
02:36:06.460 probably
02:36:07.600 what the
02:36:08.680 early 1960s
02:36:09.700 it's only 60
02:36:10.420 years
02:36:10.700 it's not that
02:36:11.400 surprising
02:36:11.840 we're not that
02:36:12.440 good at it
02:36:13.040 yet
02:36:13.340 and so
02:36:14.360 I also think
02:36:15.560 it's another
02:36:15.920 thing
02:36:16.200 I mean
02:36:16.500 fundamentally
02:36:17.080 what is it
02:36:17.840 that you read
02:36:18.320 about in the
02:36:18.760 papers
02:36:19.060 you read about
02:36:20.420 stuff that
02:36:21.600 really seems
02:36:22.540 scary
02:36:22.980 yes
02:36:23.580 and scary
02:36:24.760 stuff is not
02:36:25.900 that 1.5
02:36:27.740 million people
02:36:28.260 die from
02:36:28.660 tuberculosis
02:36:29.140 because they did
02:36:30.240 that for the
02:36:30.720 last 50 years
02:36:31.460 it doesn't seem
02:36:32.220 like and oh
02:36:32.960 it's not
02:36:33.640 none I know
02:36:34.940 of you know
02:36:35.620 so it feels
02:36:36.500 like it's far
02:36:37.240 away and it's
02:36:37.860 not really
02:36:38.320 but it doesn't
02:36:38.800 seem farther
02:36:39.580 away than
02:36:40.240 climate change
02:36:41.040 well but climate
02:36:41.860 change has this
02:36:42.960 and I think
02:36:43.740 climate change
02:36:44.480 is this one
02:36:45.200 very very
02:36:46.060 prominent
02:36:46.700 sort of
02:36:48.140 building block
02:36:49.560 of the same
02:36:50.260 kind of thing
02:36:50.720 it seems like
02:36:51.640 this could actually
02:36:52.580 hit you
02:36:53.540 and certainly
02:36:54.700 your children
02:36:55.780 so it's being
02:36:57.100 portrayed
02:36:57.180 and weather
02:36:57.840 is also local
02:36:58.740 yes it's being
02:36:59.460 portrayed as
02:37:00.120 something that
02:37:00.940 is negatively
02:37:01.880 affecting you
02:37:03.140 right here now
02:37:04.100 and it could
02:37:04.620 become the end
02:37:05.740 of the world
02:37:06.180 so you know
02:37:06.860 and look
02:37:08.180 that makes sense
02:37:08.940 if climate change
02:37:10.260 or something else
02:37:10.920 really was
02:37:11.620 the end of the world
02:37:12.840 if it was a meteor
02:37:13.840 hurtling towards earth
02:37:14.940 that would destroy us all
02:37:16.460 in 10 years
02:37:17.080 if we don't do something
02:37:17.980 about it
02:37:18.360 we should do nothing else
02:37:20.000 than think about that
02:37:20.900 meteor right
02:37:21.680 because nothing else
02:37:22.820 would matter
02:37:23.240 I think a lot of people
02:37:24.420 actually think about
02:37:25.400 climate in that
02:37:26.140 in that way
02:37:27.060 and if you do that
02:37:28.520 it kind of makes sense
02:37:29.980 yes if you accept
02:37:31.160 the apocalyptic nightmare
02:37:32.200 it's wrong
02:37:32.960 because that's not
02:37:34.160 what the UN climate
02:37:35.000 panel is telling us
02:37:35.840 it is one of many
02:37:37.380 problems that the world
02:37:38.600 needs to fix
02:37:39.260 and unfortunately
02:37:40.160 it turns out
02:37:41.320 that most of the things
02:37:42.240 that we can do
02:37:42.880 as you pointed out
02:37:43.680 you know
02:37:44.380 in Germany
02:37:45.580 you end up spending
02:37:46.680 an enormous amount
02:37:47.460 of money
02:37:47.740 to do a little bit of good
02:37:49.160 well I would actually argue
02:37:50.740 certainly on the climate front
02:37:52.260 they have made it
02:37:53.000 a little bit better
02:37:54.100 but very little better
02:37:55.520 at very high cost
02:37:56.800 and the air pollution
02:37:59.060 for a variety of reasons
02:38:00.940 have come down
02:38:01.580 in almost all rich countries
02:38:03.240 just simply because
02:38:04.540 of regulation
02:38:05.120 air pollution
02:38:05.760 is only weakly related
02:38:07.160 to carbon emissions
02:38:09.820 fundamentally because
02:38:10.960 you know
02:38:11.320 it's about putting
02:38:12.000 a catalytic converter
02:38:13.040 on your car
02:38:13.780 it's about making sure
02:38:14.920 oh by the way
02:38:15.560 that's not one
02:38:16.320 we got right
02:38:17.080 about not having diesel cars
02:38:18.920 we obviously switched
02:38:20.800 to diesel cars
02:38:21.500 because we're worried
02:38:22.200 about climate
02:38:22.680 that turned out
02:38:23.240 to be a very bad deal
02:38:24.200 you know
02:38:24.760 those kinds of things
02:38:25.480 but fundamentally
02:38:26.480 I think it's not
02:38:28.020 it's not a discussion
02:38:29.560 between people
02:38:30.240 who want to do stupid things
02:38:32.240 versus people
02:38:32.800 who want to do good things
02:38:34.080 it's more a question
02:38:35.200 of people
02:38:35.640 who want to do
02:38:36.500 spectacular things
02:38:37.840 which often end up
02:38:39.240 being fairly ineffective
02:38:41.140 that is
02:38:42.160 they'll do very little good
02:38:43.240 at really really high cost
02:38:44.480 remember
02:38:44.820 changing the entire
02:38:46.080 energy system
02:38:46.820 in order to help people
02:38:48.340 a hundred years from now
02:38:49.640 is not a terribly effective
02:38:51.240 way of helping
02:38:51.980 compared to something
02:38:53.420 where you
02:38:53.940 I don't know
02:38:54.640 give them a jab
02:38:55.660 and then they don't die
02:38:57.000 or get them
02:38:58.340 get the maternal
02:38:59.440 the pregnant moms
02:39:01.480 slightly more
02:39:04.060 more encompassing
02:39:04.740 vitamin pill
02:39:05.540 those kinds of things
02:39:07.100 they don't seem
02:39:08.380 as majestic
02:39:10.580 if you will
02:39:11.420 but they just happen
02:39:12.820 to be much
02:39:13.900 much more effective
02:39:14.860 and so again
02:39:15.720 I would love to see
02:39:17.500 if we can't make it
02:39:18.540 such that the world
02:39:19.620 can start
02:39:20.100 be a little more
02:39:21.200 sort of
02:39:21.760 I want to do something
02:39:22.900 that actually
02:39:23.640 is really good
02:39:24.540 rather than
02:39:25.440 I want to be
02:39:26.160 the guy who stands up
02:39:27.220 for the thing
02:39:28.720 that has the most
02:39:29.480 media attention
02:39:30.260 I was very
02:39:31.420 I was very curious
02:39:32.340 we had
02:39:33.260 the SDG
02:39:34.620 so
02:39:36.140 so every year
02:39:37.400 in Denmark
02:39:37.900 people meet
02:39:39.160 with all the politicians
02:39:40.320 at one island
02:39:42.460 and it's a very
02:39:43.940 fun thing
02:39:45.060 and there's lots
02:39:45.760 of talks
02:39:46.220 and all kinds
02:39:46.960 of things
02:39:47.260 and you get to see
02:39:48.060 you know politicians
02:39:48.920 right up close
02:39:49.760 and people you typically
02:39:50.960 just see on TV
02:39:51.740 and stuff
02:39:52.220 it's a very good
02:39:53.780 sort of set up
02:39:54.820 one year
02:39:55.840 it was on the SDGs
02:39:57.160 and they actually
02:39:57.740 invited me
02:39:58.340 which a lot of people
02:39:59.520 got very annoyed about
02:40:00.380 but you know
02:40:01.860 so they also had
02:40:03.780 these 17
02:40:05.860 so there's 17
02:40:06.900 cross-cutting goals
02:40:07.960 for the SDGs
02:40:09.060 and they're like
02:40:09.660 no hunger
02:40:10.540 no disease
02:40:11.640 you know
02:40:12.200 better employment
02:40:13.460 no climate change
02:40:14.800 that kind of thing
02:40:15.400 and then people
02:40:16.300 could put in
02:40:17.000 I think it was pebbles
02:40:17.920 to show
02:40:19.700 what they wanted
02:40:20.640 and you know
02:40:21.540 there's like
02:40:22.500 a little bit
02:40:23.480 little bit
02:40:23.840 little bit
02:40:24.280 climate
02:40:24.640 boom
02:40:25.100 just totally over
02:40:26.900 over full
02:40:27.560 and then every
02:40:28.040 and I think
02:40:29.780 you know
02:40:30.180 it's a niche issue
02:40:31.720 you know
02:40:32.020 I get it
02:40:32.840 you know
02:40:33.100 if you're rich
02:40:33.860 you're not worried
02:40:34.920 about tuberculosis
02:40:35.680 you're not worried
02:40:36.560 about poverty
02:40:37.160 you're not worried
02:40:37.700 about
02:40:37.840 and then if you really
02:40:38.900 think this is the end
02:40:39.640 of the world
02:40:40.000 this is the thing
02:40:41.180 that you're going
02:40:41.560 to focus on
02:40:42.120 I think
02:40:43.280 so the way
02:40:44.440 I'm looking at this
02:40:45.620 is much more
02:40:46.320 about saying
02:40:46.760 look
02:40:47.020 I get that there
02:40:48.240 are all these things
02:40:48.980 that you want to do
02:40:49.660 and surely
02:40:50.640 climate is not
02:40:51.740 the only thing
02:40:52.280 and we need to make sure
02:40:53.120 that you have
02:40:53.480 sort of an adequate
02:40:54.200 understanding
02:40:54.900 of how bad it is
02:40:56.280 it's a problem
02:40:56.860 not the end of the world
02:40:57.760 but surely
02:40:58.560 we should also
02:40:59.080 do something
02:40:59.500 about you know
02:41:00.600 corruption
02:41:01.540 surely we should
02:41:02.360 also do something
02:41:03.000 about world peace
02:41:04.000 surely we should
02:41:04.940 do something
02:41:05.360 about all these things
02:41:06.200 then we also
02:41:07.400 need to recognize
02:41:08.320 we're not
02:41:09.300 we're doing
02:41:10.340 really badly
02:41:11.140 on both climate
02:41:12.480 and on corruption
02:41:13.420 and on world peace
02:41:14.500 and all these other things
02:41:15.500 so we're fighting
02:41:16.540 against people's
02:41:17.580 desire to make
02:41:18.700 a complex situation
02:41:19.780 as simple as possible
02:41:21.000 so you collapse
02:41:22.520 it to a single variable
02:41:23.560 and then you have
02:41:24.040 a single pathway
02:41:24.780 to moral virtue
02:41:25.480 we're fighting
02:41:26.400 against the desire
02:41:28.520 the narcissistic desire
02:41:30.520 for unearned moral virtue
02:41:32.320 on that front
02:41:33.080 because then you can
02:41:33.800 put yourself forward
02:41:34.700 as the let's say
02:41:35.640 carbon dioxide savior
02:41:36.820 and you've done
02:41:37.400 all the work
02:41:37.960 we're fighting against
02:41:39.160 the fact that
02:41:40.040 negative apocalyptic
02:41:41.880 information garners
02:41:43.440 disproportionate attention
02:41:44.740 that's a deep
02:41:45.620 psychological problem
02:41:46.620 because we are tilted
02:41:47.600 more towards
02:41:48.420 observing negative information
02:41:50.620 and you're trying
02:41:51.380 to put forward
02:41:51.880 a positive view
02:41:52.620 and that is a harder
02:41:54.020 thing to manage
02:41:55.560 you have to tell
02:41:57.060 a very good story
02:41:57.840 in that case
02:41:58.640 because you don't have
02:41:59.440 that immediate cachet
02:42:00.620 of the apocalyptic
02:42:01.480 right
02:42:02.520 and then
02:42:03.060 we're also fighting
02:42:04.340 against the fact
02:42:05.240 that
02:42:05.600 to walk through
02:42:07.800 the material
02:42:08.400 that you have
02:42:09.560 been providing
02:42:10.220 for us
02:42:10.680 for example today
02:42:11.780 and this has been
02:42:12.500 condensed a lot
02:42:13.540 and it's taken decades
02:42:14.620 to collapse
02:42:15.340 it basically took
02:42:16.180 three hours
02:42:16.920 and so that's
02:42:18.540 you know
02:42:18.820 that's more exposure
02:42:20.020 to issues
02:42:20.840 of international
02:42:21.720 governance
02:42:22.360 likely
02:42:23.320 than most people
02:42:24.800 get in their whole life
02:42:26.060 right
02:42:26.620 well
02:42:26.940 yeah well I know
02:42:28.060 that people think
02:42:28.840 about political issues
02:42:29.800 an average of something
02:42:30.720 approximating three minutes
02:42:31.780 a week
02:42:32.160 right
02:42:32.840 because I mean
02:42:33.500 people like you and I
02:42:34.400 oh my god
02:42:34.660 so we've just taken up
02:42:35.720 the whole
02:42:36.100 the whole lifetime
02:42:37.420 the whole lifetime
02:42:38.400 of political thought
02:42:39.260 but
02:42:39.480 sorry guys
02:42:41.020 people do have
02:42:41.780 a glancing
02:42:42.440 familiarity
02:42:43.580 with such things
02:42:44.300 partly because
02:42:44.900 they're properly
02:42:45.580 concerned with
02:42:46.300 the local domain
02:42:47.140 but that doesn't
02:42:48.800 mean that
02:42:49.300 I don't think
02:42:50.580 that that means
02:42:51.160 that there's any
02:42:51.740 reason for despair
02:42:52.800 my sense is
02:42:53.740 and I think
02:42:54.520 we've seen that
02:42:55.140 in the collaborative
02:42:55.780 ventures that we've
02:42:56.600 undertaken too
02:42:57.280 is that
02:42:57.680 when you provide
02:42:58.960 people with the
02:42:59.800 information
02:43:00.360 there is incremental
02:43:01.540 movement towards
02:43:02.620 appreciating it
02:43:03.540 and so
02:43:03.920 so what do you see
02:43:05.660 happening in the
02:43:06.280 immediate future
02:43:06.780 you have this book
02:43:07.560 coming out
02:43:08.020 tell us again
02:43:08.680 what that is
02:43:09.320 so the book
02:43:10.500 basically make this
02:43:11.780 argument
02:43:12.140 with all the
02:43:12.940 wonderful graphs
02:43:14.180 and I'm a statistician
02:43:15.700 I think
02:43:16.040 you know
02:43:16.420 those kinds of graphs
02:43:17.300 where you see
02:43:17.840 how we used to die a lot
02:43:19.280 now we die a lot less
02:43:20.300 but this is mostly
02:43:21.120 for sub-Saharan Africa
02:43:22.100 and here's how you
02:43:23.160 can fix it
02:43:23.640 those kinds of things
02:43:24.600 great stories
02:43:25.680 I think
02:43:27.120 you know
02:43:27.520 a lot of people
02:43:28.080 will like it
02:43:28.580 and it'll make it
02:43:29.580 much easier
02:43:30.160 to sort of
02:43:30.680 get the idea
02:43:31.620 of saying
02:43:31.980 this is where
02:43:33.160 I really want
02:43:33.800 to spend my time
02:43:35.100 and my effort
02:43:35.680 in making the world
02:43:36.420 a better place
02:43:37.000 so that's called
02:43:38.680 Best Things First
02:43:39.720 you're right
02:43:40.380 and that's coming out
02:43:41.000 mid-April
02:43:41.640 best things first
02:43:43.040 yes
02:43:43.320 and then I think
02:43:45.360 what will happen
02:43:46.220 is
02:43:46.520 because we're asking
02:43:47.780 for so little money
02:43:48.980 yeah
02:43:49.400 35 billion dollars
02:43:50.700 I can actually envision
02:43:52.100 so I don't know
02:43:52.700 if you remember
02:43:53.100 somebody sort of suggested
02:43:55.980 to Elon Musk
02:43:57.160 that he could get rid
02:43:58.400 of world hunger
02:43:59.780 for six billion dollars
02:44:00.720 yeah
02:44:00.940 it was somewhat
02:44:02.060 of a misinterpretation
02:44:03.380 from the world food program
02:44:05.220 and it turned out
02:44:06.980 there was a lot less
02:44:07.720 he basically said
02:44:08.420 hey guys
02:44:09.100 if I can eradicate
02:44:10.200 world hunger
02:44:10.740 for six billion dollars
02:44:11.620 I'm willing to do it
02:44:12.500 show me how to do it
02:44:13.420 and then turn out
02:44:14.240 oh we can't quite do that
02:44:15.900 and you know
02:44:17.260 so I'm not going
02:44:19.020 to offer Elon
02:44:19.780 that deal
02:44:20.640 because it's not available
02:44:21.880 we can't do something
02:44:23.600 that good
02:44:24.180 but he could
02:44:25.460 you know
02:44:26.000 save
02:44:26.440 you know
02:44:27.760 if he spent
02:44:30.520 1.1 billion dollars
02:44:31.760 a year
02:44:32.060 on malaria
02:44:33.540 he could save
02:44:34.140 2,000 people
02:44:35.080 every year
02:44:35.520 right
02:44:35.920 he could do
02:44:36.580 all of these things
02:44:37.420 and you know
02:44:37.800 he could do
02:44:38.200 any combination
02:44:39.040 of this
02:44:39.540 and of course
02:44:40.060 Elon Musk
02:44:40.560 is just sort of
02:44:41.180 the most visible guy
02:44:42.340 maybe we need to set up
02:44:43.280 a reward program
02:44:44.400 like the Nobel
02:44:45.220 one for each of these
02:44:46.400 12 domains
02:44:47.240 where there's one person
02:44:48.380 a year working
02:44:49.120 on each of these
02:44:49.820 12 things
02:44:50.400 who gets
02:44:50.840 who gets recognized
02:44:52.220 you know
02:44:52.760 because
02:44:53.080 well
02:44:53.940 I mean
02:44:54.760 these things
02:44:55.600 it's good to do good
02:44:57.380 and it's good to reward
02:44:58.560 people who are doing good
02:45:00.240 that helps expand the story
02:45:02.300 and it seems to me
02:45:03.560 that looking for
02:45:04.520 cardinal contributors
02:45:05.520 on each front
02:45:06.400 I mean people are looking
02:45:07.940 especially people
02:45:09.300 who've been hyper fortunate
02:45:10.320 they are often
02:45:11.500 seriously looking
02:45:12.680 for a way
02:45:13.260 to provide compensation
02:45:14.960 for their disproportionate
02:45:16.580 advantage
02:45:17.120 let's say
02:45:17.620 and to provide people
02:45:18.920 with a pathway
02:45:19.540 to that
02:45:19.900 that was real
02:45:20.480 I should also just say
02:45:21.640 this whole project
02:45:23.260 is funded by
02:45:23.940 the Gates Foundation
02:45:24.600 and I also talked
02:45:26.480 to Gates himself
02:45:27.380 about this
02:45:27.960 so you know
02:45:28.500 he clearly does
02:45:29.360 a lot of these things
02:45:30.160 and he would probably
02:45:31.080 also want to
02:45:31.880 contribute to this
02:45:33.020 but there are lots
02:45:33.680 of you know
02:45:34.360 very wealthy people
02:45:35.640 but I think
02:45:36.220 it also
02:45:36.680 it's incumbent on us
02:45:38.100 we spend
02:45:38.980 $175 billion
02:45:40.140 on development aid
02:45:41.580 and a lot of this
02:45:42.340 goes to nice things
02:45:43.720 but honestly
02:45:44.560 not nearly as effective
02:45:46.320 things
02:45:46.600 as what we're
02:45:47.220 you know
02:45:47.560 some of it goes
02:45:48.100 to very very effective
02:45:48.900 things
02:45:49.180 we shouldn't just
02:45:49.840 dismantle the whole thing
02:45:50.760 but a lot of it
02:45:51.840 also goes to
02:45:52.700 you know
02:45:53.260 and I've seen this
02:45:54.620 in a lot of developing
02:45:55.720 countries where
02:45:56.440 you know
02:45:56.820 a lot of rich people
02:45:57.580 come down and say
02:45:58.360 you worry about the climate
02:45:59.620 right
02:45:59.820 we'd like to give you
02:46:00.780 a place to
02:46:02.320 you know
02:46:02.720 we'll collect the
02:46:05.560 methane from your
02:46:06.760 local garbage dump
02:46:07.780 and get you some
02:46:08.720 energy with that
02:46:09.400 and they're like
02:46:10.500 yeah that was not
02:46:11.300 quite what we wanted
02:46:12.200 but if you're going
02:46:13.200 to give it to us
02:46:13.940 for free
02:46:14.260 we'll take it
02:46:15.340 rather than say no
02:46:16.260 but the sense is
02:46:18.020 this was not what
02:46:19.080 we would have
02:46:19.520 chosen ourselves
02:46:20.180 and I think
02:46:21.140 in some sense
02:46:21.680 we have
02:46:22.180 a moral requirement
02:46:24.460 to come out
02:46:25.200 and say
02:46:25.500 maybe we should
02:46:26.500 make sure
02:46:26.920 we give the stuff
02:46:27.840 to the developing
02:46:28.880 do you think
02:46:29.200 these 12 steps
02:46:30.760 that you
02:46:31.040 they fit into
02:46:32.320 that category
02:46:32.900 these are
02:46:33.300 programs that
02:46:34.420 the developing
02:46:35.040 countries would be
02:46:36.040 thrilled to
02:46:37.000 participate in
02:46:37.760 if it was
02:46:38.180 on the table
02:46:38.720 again
02:46:39.260 I think
02:46:40.240 if you ask
02:46:40.880 any one politician
02:46:41.860 they would say
02:46:43.160 some of these 12
02:46:44.160 and then some
02:46:44.920 really dumb things
02:46:45.700 right
02:46:45.940 so you know
02:46:46.500 for instance
02:46:46.860 in India
02:46:47.460 one thing
02:46:49.280 that they love
02:46:49.940 to do politicians
02:46:50.740 is pharma loan
02:46:53.020 waivers
02:46:53.700 so you know
02:46:55.200 basically they say
02:46:56.180 you know what
02:46:56.840 you guys loaned
02:46:57.900 a lot of money
02:46:58.420 I'm going to
02:46:59.220 waiver all of that
02:47:00.080 we're just going
02:47:00.580 to pay it off
02:47:01.100 for you
02:47:01.480 which is
02:47:02.980 obviously very popular
02:47:04.560 and incredibly
02:47:05.780 bad idea
02:47:06.600 partly it's
02:47:07.580 incredibly costly
02:47:08.460 for the government
02:47:09.080 to pay off
02:47:10.040 those loans
02:47:11.360 because you now
02:47:12.540 know that the
02:47:13.180 government will
02:47:13.700 probably do it
02:47:14.320 next time
02:47:14.720 you'll take up
02:47:15.420 really bad
02:47:16.020 loans
02:47:16.680 plus you punish
02:47:17.600 the people who
02:47:18.200 actually paid
02:47:18.780 the loans off
02:47:19.340 exactly
02:47:19.620 and the banks
02:47:20.660 will increasingly
02:47:21.580 not give loans
02:47:22.540 to small hole
02:47:23.620 farmers because
02:47:24.360 they know that
02:47:25.260 they're going to
02:47:25.560 be forgiven
02:47:26.000 but the government
02:47:28.000 will be really
02:47:28.880 late in paying
02:47:29.760 it off
02:47:30.220 so they'll
02:47:30.860 actually lose
02:47:31.460 a lot of money
02:47:31.820 so they have
02:47:32.440 all kinds of
02:47:33.120 bad impacts
02:47:33.640 so politicians
02:47:35.020 being politicians
02:47:36.060 and I understand
02:47:37.120 they want to get
02:47:38.200 reelected
02:47:38.680 they'll also be
02:47:39.500 doing some bad
02:47:40.180 bad proposal
02:47:41.120 but they will
02:47:42.260 also want to
02:47:43.020 embrace some
02:47:43.500 of these great
02:47:43.920 ones
02:47:44.220 and we should
02:47:45.380 all as individuals
02:47:46.500 say this is
02:47:47.660 some of the
02:47:48.100 things
02:47:48.220 so what do you
02:47:48.660 think people
02:47:49.940 who are watching
02:47:50.760 and listening
02:47:51.380 apart from being
02:47:52.280 more generally
02:47:53.800 informed about
02:47:54.660 the fact that
02:47:55.220 these options
02:47:55.780 exist
02:47:56.280 and also
02:47:57.140 hearing a narrative
02:47:58.300 that isn't
02:47:59.620 it's sort of
02:48:00.180 multi-dimensionally
02:48:01.060 apocalyptic
02:48:01.680 which I think
02:48:02.420 is quite interesting
02:48:03.200 well you're saying
02:48:04.040 look here's 12
02:48:04.920 12 bins
02:48:06.280 of serious problems
02:48:07.340 these are serious
02:48:08.400 problems
02:48:08.860 tuberculosis
02:48:09.840 but they're not
02:48:10.380 apocalyptic
02:48:11.000 they're terrible
02:48:12.960 right
02:48:13.460 but you know
02:48:14.400 you could
02:48:14.740 but if you were
02:48:15.700 also paranoid
02:48:16.500 you could see
02:48:17.080 apocalyptic
02:48:17.620 possibilities
02:48:18.480 emerging from
02:48:19.140 them too
02:48:19.440 like a really
02:48:20.500 decent antibiotic
02:48:21.920 resistant tuberculosis
02:48:23.480 would be quite
02:48:24.280 the bloody
02:48:24.740 catastrophe
02:48:25.280 so I mean
02:48:26.380 there are
02:48:27.020 places where
02:48:28.060 positive feedback
02:48:28.880 loops could be
02:48:29.640 developing on
02:48:30.260 any of these
02:48:30.760 fronts
02:48:31.100 so what
02:48:32.200 I'm pointing out
02:48:32.940 is there's many
02:48:33.760 serious problems
02:48:34.720 for us to
02:48:35.180 continue with
02:48:35.800 I would love
02:48:36.840 for people to
02:48:37.540 take away
02:48:38.360 from this
02:48:39.520 conversation
02:48:40.040 that if I want
02:48:41.240 to be a good
02:48:41.620 person
02:48:42.000 these are
02:48:43.100 some of the
02:48:43.560 12
02:48:43.800 just pick one
02:48:45.240 and say
02:48:46.300 whenever people
02:48:47.320 next time
02:48:49.200 say we should
02:48:49.720 do something
02:48:50.120 about plastic
02:48:50.720 straws in the
02:48:51.300 ocean
02:48:51.520 or we should
02:48:52.240 do something
02:48:52.600 about climate
02:48:53.000 change
02:48:53.220 absolutely
02:48:53.760 but we haven't
02:48:54.580 been doing
02:48:54.980 very well
02:48:55.440 on these
02:48:55.820 things
02:48:56.060 right
02:48:56.220 I actually
02:48:57.260 have this
02:48:57.720 really really
02:48:58.580 simple
02:48:58.920 incredibly
02:48:59.740 effective
02:49:00.400 policy
02:49:01.380 proposal
02:49:01.860 shouldn't
02:49:02.480 we do
02:49:02.720 that
02:49:02.960 first
02:49:03.320 right
02:49:03.660 so you
02:49:04.760 just have
02:49:05.160 those arguments
02:49:05.740 at hand
02:49:06.340 the argument
02:49:07.020 is not to
02:49:07.660 say no
02:49:08.360 to everything
02:49:08.840 else
02:49:09.080 it's just
02:49:09.540 to say
02:49:09.840 of all
02:49:10.540 the things
02:49:10.900 we can
02:49:11.180 do
02:49:11.320 shouldn't
02:49:11.560 we do
02:49:11.820 the very
02:49:12.500 most effective
02:49:13.120 things
02:49:13.460 first
02:49:13.680 and so you
02:49:14.700 ask me
02:49:15.060 what's going
02:49:15.440 to happen
02:49:15.740 next
02:49:16.080 so the
02:49:16.800 UN is
02:49:17.260 going to
02:49:17.460 get together
02:49:17.960 in September
02:49:18.500 and sort
02:49:20.720 of say
02:49:21.000 yay
02:49:21.500 we're halfway
02:49:22.160 on our
02:49:22.780 sustainable
02:49:23.200 development
02:49:23.640 goals
02:49:23.980 and then
02:49:24.920 in a
02:49:26.400 more
02:49:26.600 soft voice
02:49:28.280 they're also
02:49:28.640 going to
02:49:28.880 say
02:49:29.000 and we're
02:49:29.340 not doing
02:49:29.740 very well
02:49:30.280 and so
02:49:31.660 if we can
02:49:32.500 get enough
02:49:33.080 attention
02:49:33.620 to these
02:49:34.400 12 things
02:49:35.060 and the
02:49:35.720 fact that
02:49:36.120 this will
02:49:36.400 cost about
02:49:36.840 $35 billion
02:49:37.600 a year
02:49:38.080 I actually
02:49:39.000 think
02:49:39.280 and remember
02:49:39.940 it's actually
02:49:40.460 it's a
02:49:41.260 ramping up
02:49:41.760 so it's
02:49:42.040 about
02:49:42.300 it starts
02:49:43.500 at $25
02:49:44.200 billion
02:49:44.480 and ends
02:49:45.060 at $50
02:49:45.500 billion
02:49:45.820 for a
02:49:47.000 variety
02:49:47.360 of reasons
02:49:48.420 so yeah
02:49:49.580 I actually
02:49:50.240 think we
02:49:50.660 could get
02:49:50.980 most governments
02:49:51.580 on board
02:49:52.040 for saying
02:49:52.420 we're going
02:49:53.080 to promise
02:49:53.420 this
02:49:53.600 remember
02:49:54.020 we've already
02:49:54.620 promised all
02:49:55.160 this unrealistic
02:49:55.780 stuff so why
02:49:56.560 not also
02:49:57.020 promise this
02:49:57.680 given that
02:49:58.620 the incremental
02:49:59.160 cost is low
02:50:00.060 I think we
02:50:01.280 could actually
02:50:01.920 get people
02:50:02.600 to say
02:50:03.080 come September
02:50:04.340 we have
02:50:05.340 badly screwed
02:50:06.460 up all the
02:50:07.300 promises that
02:50:08.140 we've given
02:50:08.540 the world
02:50:08.860 maybe we
02:50:09.740 should just
02:50:10.080 do this
02:50:10.520 extra little
02:50:11.200 push
02:50:11.600 $35 billion
02:50:12.840 and actually
02:50:13.880 do an amazing
02:50:14.720 amount of
02:50:15.140 good
02:50:15.300 more good
02:50:16.060 than we've
02:50:16.560 done in a
02:50:17.200 very very
02:50:17.660 long time
02:50:18.320 at very
02:50:19.380 low cost
02:50:19.940 and we
02:50:20.400 know this
02:50:20.900 is some
02:50:21.180 of the
02:50:21.380 most effective
02:50:21.980 stuff we
02:50:22.580 could possibly
02:50:23.400 do in the
02:50:23.880 world
02:50:24.060 I think
02:50:24.800 the doable
02:50:25.420 dozen
02:50:25.860 the doable
02:50:26.640 dozen
02:50:26.960 I like
02:50:27.340 that
02:50:27.480 that's the
02:50:27.920 financial
02:50:28.260 times
02:50:28.600 we didn't
02:50:28.940 even think
02:50:29.360 of that
02:50:29.620 but yeah
02:50:30.020 it's a
02:50:30.700 great way
02:50:32.360 of saying
02:50:32.720 let's do
02:50:33.360 best things
02:50:34.440 first
02:50:34.700 I can't
02:50:35.620 do my
02:50:36.040 own title
02:50:37.000 best things
02:50:38.160 first
02:50:38.560 yeah well
02:50:38.940 that seems
02:50:39.340 like a good
02:50:39.840 principle
02:50:40.240 alright Bjorn
02:50:41.020 that was
02:50:41.480 great man
02:50:42.060 so for
02:50:43.560 all of you
02:50:44.000 who've been
02:50:44.400 watching and
02:50:44.940 listening
02:50:45.260 your time
02:50:46.380 and attention
02:50:46.820 is much
02:50:47.200 appreciated
02:50:47.740 you'll have
02:50:48.740 to keep
02:50:49.140 an eye out
02:50:50.420 for Bjorn's
02:50:51.060 book
02:50:51.320 best things
02:50:51.920 first
02:50:52.340 mid-April
02:50:53.020 and then
02:50:54.020 you'll have
02:50:54.680 the arguments
02:50:55.200 at hand
02:50:55.800 in book
02:50:56.620 form
02:50:56.940 and that's
02:50:57.320 always helpful
02:50:57.920 and thank you
02:50:59.680 to the Daily
02:51:00.660 Wire plus
02:51:01.160 people for
02:51:01.800 facilitating this
02:51:02.680 conversation to
02:51:03.380 the film crew
02:51:03.900 here in
02:51:04.480 Calgary
02:51:05.240 Alberta
02:51:05.720 that's where
02:51:06.200 we happen
02:51:06.520 to be today
02:51:07.080 Bjorn and I
02:51:07.760 happen to be
02:51:08.120 in the same
02:51:08.480 neck of the
02:51:08.840 woods
02:51:09.000 so that's
02:51:09.440 good
02:51:09.640 and we'll
02:51:10.580 well we'll
02:51:11.400 continue our
02:51:11.960 conversations
02:51:12.500 as we move
02:51:13.080 forward
02:51:13.320 we've got
02:51:13.660 other things
02:51:14.100 cooking on
02:51:14.640 the international
02:51:15.360 development
02:51:15.840 front which
02:51:16.440 I'm going to
02:51:17.240 be talking
02:51:17.600 about very
02:51:18.080 soon on this
02:51:18.720 YouTube channel
02:51:19.380 or may have
02:51:20.220 already come
02:51:20.620 out before
02:51:21.040 this does
02:51:21.540 so well
02:51:22.880 and I'm
02:51:23.800 happy to do
02:51:24.440 anything I can
02:51:25.180 to facilitate
02:51:25.820 communication
02:51:26.640 about the
02:51:27.280 doable dozen
02:51:28.280 and best
02:51:28.800 things first
02:51:29.420 so good to
02:51:30.360 talk to you
02:51:30.760 today man
02:51:31.220 likewise
02:51:31.540 I'm actually
02:51:33.640 writing in
02:51:34.260 35 papers
02:51:35.120 around the
02:51:35.500 world
02:51:35.640 on all of
02:51:36.480 these topics
02:51:37.240 so the
02:51:38.200 financial post
02:51:39.080 in Canada
02:51:40.000 but you know
02:51:41.000 the biggest
02:51:41.480 daily in
02:51:42.040 India and
02:51:42.660 Indonesia
02:51:43.320 and many
02:51:44.020 other places
02:51:44.500 in the world
02:51:44.880 and so you
02:51:46.040 know we should
02:51:46.400 be sharing
02:51:46.780 that every
02:51:47.240 week
02:51:47.540 yes
02:51:48.000 absolutely
02:51:48.780 we'll do
02:51:49.200 that's the
02:51:50.100 short version
02:51:50.720 of each
02:51:51.060 one of
02:51:51.340 these
02:51:51.480 so 800
02:51:52.020 words
02:51:52.480 you get
02:51:53.300 the gist
02:51:54.600 of every
02:51:55.040 one of
02:51:55.300 them
02:51:55.360 you said
02:51:55.380 you've been
02:51:55.500 getting a lot
02:51:56.100 of interest
02:51:56.600 in newspapers
02:51:57.440 in the poorest
02:51:58.280 half of the
02:51:58.740 world
02:51:58.920 because they
02:51:59.580 do see
02:52:00.400 that the
02:52:00.760 12
02:52:01.120 proposals
02:52:01.740 they actually
02:52:02.600 care about
02:52:03.280 these
02:52:03.440 right
02:52:03.700 right
02:52:04.060 right
02:52:04.400 right
02:52:04.660 yeah
02:52:05.180 yeah
02:52:05.440 well it's
02:52:05.920 also necessary
02:52:06.760 for us
02:52:07.160 one thing
02:52:08.140 maybe we
02:52:08.500 could close
02:52:08.860 with this
02:52:09.200 one thing
02:52:09.560 that's really
02:52:09.940 disturbed me
02:52:10.640 like truly
02:52:11.800 disturbed me
02:52:12.500 in the last
02:52:13.320 year has been
02:52:14.020 this insistence
02:52:15.020 this apparent
02:52:16.100 neo-colonial
02:52:17.040 insistence
02:52:17.640 on the part
02:52:18.080 of wealthy
02:52:18.460 people in the
02:52:19.020 west that
02:52:19.420 we just
02:52:20.020 can't afford
02:52:20.740 to have
02:52:21.480 the developed
02:52:21.940 world strive
02:52:23.200 to attain
02:52:23.700 the same
02:52:24.120 levels of
02:52:24.660 security and
02:52:25.280 opportunity that
02:52:25.980 we've reached
02:52:26.440 in the west
02:52:26.940 and first of
02:52:27.640 all I don't
02:52:27.960 think there's
02:52:28.320 any empirical
02:52:28.860 evidence for
02:52:29.480 that I don't
02:52:29.840 think it's I
02:52:30.280 think it's
02:52:30.580 pretty damn
02:52:31.040 weak claim
02:52:31.720 on the
02:52:32.540 factual front
02:52:33.340 given that
02:52:34.120 if you make
02:52:34.560 people richer
02:52:35.120 they start
02:52:35.560 caring about
02:52:36.020 the environment
02:52:36.580 plus their
02:52:37.120 children like
02:52:38.080 don't die
02:52:38.860 and get to
02:52:39.320 be educated
02:52:39.900 which seems
02:52:40.360 to be a
02:52:40.700 plus but
02:52:41.120 it's also
02:52:41.980 morally
02:52:43.180 reprehensible
02:52:44.000 I do not
02:52:44.900 understand why
02:52:46.060 we think it's
02:52:47.120 in our proper
02:52:47.960 moral purview
02:52:48.720 to be saying
02:52:49.460 to people in
02:52:50.120 the bottom
02:52:50.780 half of the
02:52:51.420 developing world
02:52:52.060 that you know
02:52:52.980 well turns out
02:52:54.220 if you industrialize
02:52:55.180 there's some
02:52:55.600 costs and the
02:52:56.660 environment bears
02:52:57.340 some of those
02:52:57.820 costs and well
02:52:58.840 we just don't
02:52:59.620 think that you
02:53:00.440 should do it and
02:53:01.040 we're not going
02:53:01.560 to help you do
02:53:02.160 it and I don't
02:53:03.660 see that as
02:53:04.600 moral in the least
02:53:05.460 in fact quite
02:53:06.160 the contrary
02:53:06.720 it's terrible
02:53:07.620 and it's terrible
02:53:08.720 you're absolutely
02:53:09.420 right we're
02:53:09.980 doing it
02:53:10.440 again I
02:53:11.100 understand this
02:53:11.780 from the point
02:53:12.280 of view if you
02:53:12.880 really believe
02:53:13.660 the end of the
02:53:14.620 world is nigh
02:53:15.500 and you know
02:53:17.200 global warming
02:53:17.880 is the leading
02:53:18.960 issue
02:53:19.400 yeah
02:53:19.780 then it may
02:53:20.720 make sense
02:53:21.260 to say I'm
02:53:21.680 sorry everyone
02:53:22.200 has to just
02:53:22.860 stay poor
02:53:23.380 and actually
02:53:24.440 I'd like to
02:53:24.980 start that with
02:53:25.700 yourself
02:53:26.100 yes and
02:53:26.720 that's of course
02:53:27.480 why this won't
02:53:28.480 work
02:53:28.800 you can't even
02:53:30.500 convince your own
02:53:31.280 countries to become
02:53:32.060 poor and you
02:53:33.040 certainly can't
02:53:33.980 convince the poor
02:53:34.900 countries to say
02:53:35.680 yeah sure we'll
02:53:36.440 stay poor
02:53:36.960 so it's not going
02:53:38.280 to happen
02:53:38.700 but partly
02:53:39.700 just simply
02:53:40.380 making it a little
02:53:41.660 harder for poor
02:53:42.740 countries to get
02:53:43.520 out of poverty
02:53:44.200 yeah
02:53:44.460 is in my view
02:53:45.920 immoral
02:53:46.520 yeah
02:53:46.800 but you know
02:53:47.240 fundamentally we need
02:53:48.320 to get people to
02:53:49.100 realize yes
02:53:50.000 climate change is a
02:53:50.900 real problem
02:53:51.340 yeah
02:53:51.620 but it's not this
02:53:52.280 catastrophic end
02:53:53.260 of the world
02:53:53.720 this is there's
02:53:54.700 nothing in the
02:53:56.040 UN climate panel
02:53:56.840 the new reports
02:53:57.560 that came out
02:53:58.040 from 2021
02:53:58.880 2022
02:53:59.420 these you know
02:54:01.340 1600 pages
02:54:02.820 there's no
02:54:03.920 apocalypse
02:54:04.380 apocalypse in there
02:54:06.600 yeah
02:54:06.820 there is some
02:54:07.900 problems that we
02:54:08.800 will face
02:54:09.320 and most of
02:54:10.300 these problems
02:54:10.840 will be much
02:54:11.740 alleviated by people
02:54:12.800 not being in poverty
02:54:13.860 right
02:54:14.180 so you know
02:54:14.520 if a hurricane hits
02:54:15.680 if it hits Florida
02:54:17.260 yeah it costs a lot
02:54:18.380 of money
02:54:18.600 but it basically
02:54:19.320 don't kill very
02:54:20.020 many people
02:54:20.480 if it hits in
02:54:21.380 Guatemala the same
02:54:22.300 hurricane
02:54:22.640 it'll kill lots of
02:54:23.700 people and shut down
02:54:24.560 the economy
02:54:25.020 that's the point
02:54:26.380 of being rich
02:54:27.380 or being not poor
02:54:28.760 that you're actually
02:54:29.600 much more resilient
02:54:30.500 so so again
02:54:32.120 we need to get
02:54:33.060 people to realize
02:54:33.940 this is one of
02:54:34.880 many problems
02:54:35.480 and it's unfortunately
02:54:36.920 one of the places
02:54:37.740 where you can spend
02:54:38.580 a lot of money
02:54:39.140 and actually have
02:54:39.820 very little impact
02:54:40.980 whereas these 12
02:54:43.020 things you can spend
02:54:44.260 little money
02:54:44.840 and have an enormous
02:54:45.960 amount of impact
02:54:46.660 so again
02:54:47.340 my point is not to say
02:54:48.840 that we shouldn't spend
02:54:49.720 money on all of these
02:54:50.880 things and make sure
02:54:51.700 that we try to work
02:54:52.720 make a better world
02:54:53.660 but at least we should
02:54:55.080 projects you want
02:54:56.040 as long as you do
02:54:56.820 the things that
02:54:57.420 actually work
02:54:58.220 first
02:54:58.820 right first
02:54:59.800 yeah
02:55:00.080 all right
02:55:00.740 good
02:55:01.180 hey thanks
02:55:02.040 you bet man
02:55:02.840 you bet
02:55:03.360 yeah
02:55:03.660 yeah
02:55:04.000 well and again
02:55:04.540 thanks for everyone
02:55:05.340 watching and listening
02:55:06.280 and well
02:55:07.600 that's that guys
02:55:09.360 and onward we go
02:55:11.440 thank you all
02:55:12.960 hello everyone
02:55:15.980 I would encourage you
02:55:17.120 to continue
02:55:17.660 listening to my
02:55:18.760 conversation with my
02:55:19.880 guest on
02:55:20.940 dailywireplus.com
02:55:22.940 Craig Craig Craig
02:55:24.980 Craig likes it warm
02:55:26.500 Craig loves 71 degrees
02:55:28.780 Fahrenheit
02:55:29.220 Craig doesn't
02:55:30.340 understand Fahrenheit
02:55:31.320 but Craig does like
02:55:32.840 to save money
02:55:33.420 when he's at work
02:55:34.280 Craig also cares
02:55:35.480 about his carbon
02:55:36.120 footprint
02:55:36.520 he's so thoughtful
02:55:37.980 that Craig
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