Dr. Patrick Moore was one of the founding members of the environmentalist organization, Greenpeace, and was a founding member of the anti-nuclear campaign to protect the oceans. But Dr. Moore s early career as an environmentalist was cut short when he was recruited into a climate denialist faction within the organization, and he left to pursue a PhD in ecology at the University of British Columbia. In the process, he became disillusioned with environmentalism and joined the ranks of climate deniers, and later became a self-proclaimed climate skeptic. In this episode, we talk about his early days in the environmental movement, and how he found his way into the climate denialism faction within it, and why he left it all to become a skeptic in the first place. He also shares his views on climate change and climate change denialism, and what he believes about the existence of life on other planets and the origin and evolution of life in general. This episode is sponsored by Smartflow, a Canadian company that makes clean energy products. For a limited time, sign up and get up to $1,000 in bill credits and apply for up-to-$3,000 worth of rebates. Learn more at Smartflow.org/sustain. Terms and conditions apply. Learn more about the Smartflow Membership Program at Enbridge Sustain. The Smartflow membership opportunity is open until December 31st, 2019. Enbridge Smartflow is a limited-edition membership program that includes early-bird pricing, early bird and plant-based membership, and early bird pricing, with earlybird pricing available through Dec. 31st and Dec. May 1st through June 1st, 2020. All you can get 20% off your first month for $99, $99/month, and a total of $99.99/year, plus a discount of $150/month from Enbridge, plus an additional $25/month after that, plus you get a discount on the second year, and you'll get access to the 3-year membership offer, and all other options available for full-up to $150,99/choice, plus they'll get an additional 2 years, plus I'll get $5,000 and a discount, and they'll receive $25,000, and I'll receive an additional discount, plus the option of a discount starts after that gets you get an ad-only course starting in March, and an additional 4 months, and $16,99 and a mentor gets $4,000 gets $24,000.
00:10:32.820But the point is, last year, in the middle of the summer, it was announced by the whole group of people who are studying the Great Barrier Reef that in the 36 years since they've been doing it thoroughly, it was the highest coral cover yet known.
00:10:56.240It's got more cover than it ever has in the last 36 years.
00:11:00.040And that gets in some tiny amount of media, whereas the other one went worldwide that it was dying.
00:11:07.120And the thing is, is that the highest biodiversity of all coral reefs is in the warmest ocean in the world, which is Indonesia.
00:11:16.820It's protected from the north by Asia and it's protected from the south by Australia to cold water incursions that come into the Great Barrier Reef and many others.
00:11:30.180But they say if it gets warmer, the corals will die.
00:11:34.280No, they will spread because we're coming out right now of a period when the Earth was so much warmer.
00:11:45.460The Eocene Thermal Maximum happened 15 million years after the dinosaur extinction, which was almost certainly caused by that asteroid that hit Yucatan and sent ash into the stratosphere where it blocked the sun and caused plants to die and mass extinctions to occur.
00:12:03.200And if the planet warms from what it is now, which is actually one of the coldest periods in the history of the Earth, this is the great irony.
00:12:13.440Now, I'll try and go just quickly into the three most important points about climate change.
00:12:20.980One is that this is one of the coldest periods in the history of the Earth.
00:12:24.340That's why the ice caps are huge ice caps are covering both the North and South Poles.
00:12:29.040There were forests in the South Pole and there was no ice in the Arctic until about three million years ago.
00:12:35.900Since 250 million years before that, when the Karoo Ice Age, which lasted 100 million years,0.95
00:12:44.500the same sort of thing we're in now, where the poles are all covered in big sheets of ice,
00:12:50.820since 250 million years ago when it ended, the Earth has been warmer than it is now.
00:12:58.440So you're focusing on time frame, and this is something that's perplexed me continually with regards to both the climate debate
00:13:07.600and the carbon dioxide debate, because my sense is that you can derive whatever conclusion you want,
00:13:15.600essentially, about temperature and about carbon dioxide and about the relationship between temperature and carbon dioxide
00:13:22.720by merely arbitrarily choosing a particular period of time to study.
00:13:28.600Now, what struck me about the presentation of yours that I saw was that you circumvented that to some degree
00:13:36.000by using extremely long spans of time.
00:13:39.900And so the claim that you just made, let me just lay it out again for everyone who's watching and listening,
00:13:45.460is that over the last 250 million years, we've rarely been in a period that's as cold as it is now.
00:13:55.000And that for much of that time, when there was no shortage, we never have been.
00:15:29.340Okay, that's a span of how long did you say, the Pleistocene?
00:15:32.1602.6 million years is, it's arbitrary, but it was going down, down, down, down, and they said,
00:15:40.500okay, this is where we'll call it the Pleistocene, because it had become so much colder than it was 50 million years ago.
00:15:48.360And it had gone down quickly, and then it leveled off for a while for about another 10 million years.
00:15:53.800And then it crashed down to where we are now with the fact that we are in as cold a period as has ever existed in the past 550 million years.
00:16:06.940Now, as for Ice Ball Earth, Ice Ball Earth is too long ago to have accurate records.
00:16:14.220There's all kinds of, I've read a lot about it, and there's a lot of speculation involved in it.
00:16:23.940Obviously, the world didn't freeze over completely, or there wouldn't be any life here again.
00:16:30.400I mean, life had already occupied all the oceans of the world by that time, and there was no life to speak of on land.
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00:19:12.680We have an unbelievably long span of essentially three billion years then when life is unicellular.
00:19:19.040500 million years ago, we get the emergence of multicellular life.
00:19:23.920And that's the time when you start to focus in on the data, thinking that, at least in part, the evidence for anything that happened before that is thin and speculative.
00:19:36.660How good is the evidence for our conception of climate and atmospheric composition from 550 million years ago to now?
00:19:48.280And also, from what sources is that evidence derived?
00:19:52.460Like, how do we know what the temperature was?
00:19:54.520How do we know how much carbon dioxide there was in the atmosphere across that 500 million year period?
00:20:01.380And how much more accurate do our estimates get as the millions of years progress?
00:20:15.120The best evidence started to occur in 1958 in the International Geophysical Year when ships went out all over the world and drilled deeply into the marine sediments
00:20:27.200to look at various proxies, oxygen 18 is a really important one.
00:20:33.160It has to do with different decay rates of different isotopes of various elements.
00:20:40.900I'm not an expert on this, but I know that's how it's done.
00:20:45.020Also, the foraminifera, which are a tiny shelled animal that lives in the sea and is of huge abundance,
00:20:57.200we know from the shape of their shells how long ago it was, along with the proxy radiation stuff.
00:21:06.220So we can look deep down into these sediments and see the evolution of life.
00:21:12.060And the first multicellular life was pretty well all just like jellyfish.
00:23:29.000And they can be, like oysters and all those shelled species.
00:23:34.800But the jellyfish are still around, but most of them have stingers.
00:23:40.880So they don't have to be able to run away too fast because the other species know that it's not a very pleasant experience to swallow one.0.77
00:23:47.700and so all the all these different uh strains the the phylum of life many phylum have emerged
00:23:56.560in this 500 million year period and the only reason they're still here is because they were
00:24:01.400successful now people say that when i say well the eocene thermal maximum was like way hotter
00:24:09.160than it is now there was no ice anywhere for 250 million years and life thrived the dinosaurs
00:24:15.820thrived if it hadn't been for the asteroid they'd still be here but it made room for us mammals
00:24:23.000to fill the gap and so they say but no but humans couldn't have lived through that
00:24:28.340no but their ancestors did if if we wouldn't be here if our ancestors hadn't lived through the hot
00:24:34.840period and so that that this 500 million years gives you absolute proof that the the climate
00:24:43.160emergency and and this strong relationship between co2 and temperature they are out of sync
00:24:50.520through that 500 million year period more than they're in sync and that is not not a cause-effect
00:24:57.600relationship okay so let's review this so so far we've established that we have reasonable records
00:25:05.980of climate and atmosphere for a 500 million year period let's say and we've derived that in part
00:25:12.000from the study of um radioactive isotopes and partly from the study of the shells of shelled animals
00:25:18.820that have been around for an extraordinarily long period of time and so we can get a pretty decent
00:25:22.480picture of both climate and atmospheric uh composition during that period of time and what we see
00:25:30.420is that for much of that period of time in fact for all of it in in your estimation um the planet was in
00:25:39.100fact much warmer than it is now to the point where there was no ice for most of that period of time
00:25:43.860on either pole yet during that period life flourished abundantly also during that period
00:25:51.540is 500 million year period for almost all of that time there not only was more carbon dioxide in the
00:25:58.240atmosphere than there is now there was like there was way more five times more ten times more and the
00:26:05.640consequence of that was that plants flourished also the carbon dioxide and the temperature during that
00:26:14.220period are radically out of sync and not obviously causally related is does that is that a good summary of
00:26:22.940the 500 million year evidence so indeed it is okay well i just say that the the caroo ice age lasted 100
00:26:34.020million years the silurian only lasted for about 10 million years ours is only 2.5 million years and
00:26:40.080they're declaring it over without any evidence whatsoever that it's anything like over as a matter
00:26:45.940of fact of the 40 interglacial periods that have occurred the the most recent ones have shown a
00:26:53.460continuing decline in the warmth of the warm periods which are the short periods it goes it takes
00:26:59.60085 000 years to sink from where we are now back to the next major glaciation see they call it the last
00:27:07.380ice age the one that occurred 20 000 years ago no it was the most recent glacial maximum of which there
00:27:15.180have been 40 during the place to see an ice age and the the amazing thing is is that the the cycles
00:27:23.260that are occurring here are are asynchronous like for the first half one and a half million years it was a
00:27:32.46040 000 year cycle in keeping with the shape of the earth's orbit which is affected by the mag by
00:27:41.140by jupiter's gravitational field jupiter affects both our our our our circle around the it's not a circle
00:27:50.520it's a oval but it changes shape in tune with jupiter's gravitational effect as as it goes around
00:27:58.380the sun and then the the tilt of the earth is is affected by jupiter's gravitational effect
00:28:06.080and so is the wobble the north star won't always be the north star because the tilt wobbles like this
00:28:14.520in a 20 000 year cycle right i'm using round numbers it's like 21 or something but so this period we've
00:28:22.500had now for the last 2.5 million years the graph shows very clearly from ocean sediment analysis
00:28:29.060that it's still getting colder in the cold periods okay so that's the place to see that last two and a
00:28:36.020half million years and that's the time that's been characterized by 40 processions of ice
00:28:41.920yes the last of which was the last ice age no no the most recent mate
00:28:48.100recent glaciation the ice age is the place to see oh yes sorry yes yes and and but people you've got
00:28:55.700that in your head because they're pouring it into you every day that it was the last ice age when when
00:29:01.060it is this is the last ice age it's called the place to see and it's the most
00:29:05.620recent ice age but we also have these glacial maximums occurring and and and so this is called
00:29:16.620the place to see and conundrum because no one knows quite exactly how that happened okay so let me
00:29:21.320rephrase that so two and a half million per year period which in in totality is an ice age that's
00:29:28.260characterized by the movement and the reset the movement forward and the recession of of the ice
00:29:34.140masses and the last major movement forward was 20 000 years ago but we're still in and and now
00:29:43.500are we're at the tail end of the recession where are we in that process no we're at the tail end of
00:29:50.320the interglacial period if it's anything like pretty well all of the previous ones it really only lasts
00:29:55.960about 10 000 years and the first part of it is warmer than it is people are not even willing to
00:30:02.340look at 10 000 years they want to say from 1850 right yeah that's when the industrial era began and
00:30:09.680now it's the industrial area that is causing this slight change in in global temperature when in fact
00:30:16.420this change started more like in 1600 that was the peak of the little ice age as it was called and it
00:30:22.820wasn't an ice age either it was just a a cold period during an interglacial period during a warm period
00:30:31.600so but the little ice age was the coldest it's been since about 10 000 years ago as it was coming up
00:30:38.800out of the real glacial maximum i can't tell right at the beginning exactly how many there were and where
00:30:46.500you really start and all that stuff but it's in the neighborhood of 40 glacial maximums first on 100 000
00:30:52.620year cycles sudden switch to 40 000 year cycles both of which tie in with the uh jupiter
00:31:01.520gravitational theory um this was discovered in the 1920s uh but they didn't have that they didn't have
00:31:09.520the detail that we have today um the the fact is is what i call it is the most recent glacial maximum
00:31:18.180was 20 000 years ago they call it the last because last can also mean final as well as most recent
00:31:25.760right so most recent is much more accurate than final i don't know why final would would be used
00:31:33.440unless they thought it was the last one and there's absolutely no evidence for that because we have
00:31:39.160already started about 6 000 years ago going downwards slowly till we came to the little ice age and it was
00:31:46.500only 400 and some years ago that that happened people starved in the northern parts of europe because
00:31:52.300it was too cold to grow food and and it doesn't take that much temperature a couple three degrees celsius
00:31:59.200makes the area where you can grow food move quite a bit just like the in the glacial maximums there was a
00:32:07.520mile of ice over and two miles of ice and three miles of ice and around churchill like four miles of
00:32:16.600ice on top of the land and and there was almost nowhere in canada that wasn't completely glaciated
00:32:22.920a few places where there's very little precipitation in the in the alaska area yukon area but basically
00:32:30.460the whole country was covered in a massive sheet of ice which went way down into the northern tier u.s states
00:32:35.900new york had a mile of ice on it so and that was only 20 000 years ago and that had occurred
00:32:41.680time after time after time for 2.5 million years and again there is absolutely no indication
00:32:50.280that the pleistocene is anywhere near coming to an end everything points to it getting colder
00:32:57.060or staying the same maybe the chance of it going back up is five percent if you look at the evidence
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00:34:13.080okay so if we look at the last two and a half million years we're in an age that's cold enough to
00:34:21.700frequently have the progression of the glaciers and that's happened and they've receded 40 times now you
00:34:28.520made allusion to some of the forces that are multiple forces that are causing that you talked
00:34:35.120about the the um the tilt of the earth's orbit and the and what would you say the irregularities in
00:34:41.880that tilt so that's a source of variability you talked about yes what if the earth points more
00:34:47.360towards the sun then the solar radiation goes further north and further south and in our winter there
00:34:53.320summer so it it it can that seems to be where it was triggered was was by these the cycles fit
00:35:02.680perfectly so you you sort of have to go well that looks like it's a cause-effect relationship right
00:35:08.120and it happens so many times and and you said the wobble itself is affected by even more distal forces
00:35:17.660like the the gravitational pull of jupiter so there's many many forces at play that are determining
00:35:23.880these large-scale cycles of climate over tens of thousands of years tens of thousands of year periods
00:35:30.220and it you don't believe that there's any evidence whatsoever there are cycles upon cycles upon cycles
00:35:37.420upon cycle right and you don't believe that carbon dioxide production per se that is one of the major
00:35:43.800okay so so let's still drag into that because or drill into that because i'm going to do everything
00:35:49.260i can push back against you to to evaluate that argument because we want to give the devil his due
00:35:55.320so i could say all right so the first thing i might say is well you could be right in that
00:36:01.080there's been a tremendous amount of variation across large spans of time but the rate of change
00:36:09.920change at the moment since 1850 is sufficient so that those perturbations will be hard for natural systems
00:36:17.660to adapt to and they threaten the stability of the cultures that we've generated predicated as they are
00:36:25.320on a particular uh what would you say manifestation of weather and climate and so
00:36:30.860the right span of time is a 200 year period and not these tens of thousands of years or millions of years
00:36:37.280even that you're insisting upon so how would you respond to that objection well john clauser
00:36:44.620who got the nobel prize in physics in 22 or 3 has just joined the co2 coalition of which i'm
00:36:53.060a director founding director and we're a group that only accepts people that we want to come in you
00:37:00.160can't just pay money and be a member uh we we know what we're talking about we've got uh some of the top
00:37:07.280uh atmospheric scientists and et cetera in the world as as as our group and we're also associated
00:37:14.120with clintel in europe uh which is a climate international uh alliance i believe it's that
00:37:21.740stands for and we're we're pretty much on the same page because it's the only page that makes any sense
00:37:29.400uh the the the fact is is and john clauser said it this way the difference between the temperature 200
00:37:38.240years ago and the temperature now and you're going to this 1.5 degrees and the earth is going to burn up
00:37:45.060or whatever that's let that's less than that's less than between breakfast and lunch everywhere in the
00:37:52.540world 1.5 degrees celsius it it is so stupidly ridiculous to say that a 1.5 degrees celsius
00:38:02.720increase in global atmospheric temperature is going to be a disaster as a matter of fact it will open up
00:38:09.520vast areas of farmland that were too cold before a lot of this you know i live in comox uh where i'm
00:38:17.580just barely halfway to the north pole and it's too cold for things to grow for large parts of the year
00:38:25.520and it would be nice if it was warmer and the other thing that not many people know is that when the
00:38:32.860earth warms uh say back in the day this is many millions of years ago when it was much warmer than
00:38:39.260it is now uh it it it does go more towards the poles the equator doesn't change it it's a a constant
00:38:49.720that like the poles actually became subtropical uh during some of the interglacial periods before the
00:38:57.960ice age came the ice didn't start building up in antarctica until about 30 million years ago
00:39:04.200and the ice didn't start building up in the arctic until about 5 million years ago the south pole is
00:39:10.960always colder than the north pole the southern hemisphere is colder because it's mostly ocean and
00:39:17.060it takes a lot more energy to heat up the oceans than it does to heat up the land you're only
00:39:23.240heating up a little bit like this but the oceans are like the atmosphere are in in cycle they're in
00:39:30.160lots of lots of different cycles exchanges so they're moving heat all over the place whereas
00:39:36.620the land doesn't move heat it just absorbs it and so the the the the northern hemisphere has always
00:39:44.100been colder than the southern well since the land masses were reasonably in the same place they are now
00:39:49.840over of course over the hundreds of millions of years the tectonic plates have moved around quite a bit
00:39:55.940and at one time they were all in one continent with all the rest of the world being ocean gone gone
00:40:01.780to wanna land i think that's what that was um and so the the the the flows of heat uh but the the point
00:40:10.580is is that in the eothene thermal maximum the temperature was at least five to seven degrees celsius
00:40:18.180warmer than it is now maybe even more and how long were we topics it there were
00:40:25.94050 million years ago was the peak of the eocene thermal maximum as it's called and coming out of
00:40:31.940the glacial uh coming out of the dinosaur extinction there were 15 million years where it still was
00:40:38.820going up it had gone it had gone down about halfway to where it is now in the middle of this 250 million
00:40:46.660year period but it was nowhere near and cold enough for any ice to be on the earth and at the same time co2
00:40:52.980was going in the exact opposite direction than the the whole of the um temperature was and that you can
00:41:01.300see that in the in the graphs that that there is no clear relationship but the thing about co2 is
00:41:08.820actually it is a greenhouse gas but clouds are so much more important you know water is the most
00:41:16.660interesting one because they're not properly modeled i also understand that in the client the
00:41:23.140climate models don't have sufficient resolution to appropriately model the clouds so you talked
00:41:28.180about 1.5 degrees and that number has always bothered me because um i i understand if i'm correct that
00:41:36.420that's within the error margin of the estimates of the forcing effect of water vapor i understand that it
00:41:43.780it's a small enough measurement so that we can't determine um if it can be validly detected in terms
00:41:50.740of an increase given our inability to model the effects of clouds i understand that we don't have
00:41:57.700temperature measurements from terrestrial weather stations that are sufficiently reliable over even
00:42:04.180a period of several hundred years to ensure that our estimates are accurate within a degree and a half
00:42:09.780i mean i learned this not least by reading michael crichton about or crichton about 20 years ago when he