The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast


454. Urban Warfare, Civilian Casualty, & Human Shields | John Spencer


Summary

In this episode, I speak with John Spencer, a former military officer and academic, about urban warfare. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of urban warfare, and how they relate to the current conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as well as the challenges the Israelis have in order to engage in urban warfare in the 21st century. We also discuss why urban warfare is so important to the modern military, and why non-state actors should be fighting in cities. And we discuss why the economic and political engines of nations don t want to fight in cities today. And why they should fight in the cities. And how cities have always been the strategic engine of nations the object of the city, the capital of nations, the economic engine of the world, the capital of the human capital and why cities are the future of warfare. Tim s Classic Breakfast Sandwich Sandwich is just $3 when you buy any size cup of coffee. Plus tax, Canada only, limited time only, terms apply, see app for details. Tim s Breakfast Sandwich: $3.99, Canada-only, limited-time offer, no tax, no add-ons, no shipping, no delivery, no post-paid, no credit card required. Tim's Classic Breakfast Sandwiches: Just $3, $3 + tax, $5, $6, $7, $8, $10, $12, $14, $16, $15, $19, $20, $23, $24, $25, $27, $29, and so much more! Tims - Tims Breakfast Sandwich, Tims - Tim s to bring you breaking news about the latest breaking news from around the world. - including breaking news, breaking news breaking out in the Middle East, including Russia, Ukraine, Gaza, and Ukraine, Russia, Israel, and much more. Tims Classic Breakfast sandwich, Tim s classic breakfast sandwich, of course, Tim's Breakfast Sandwich - Tim's classic breakfast sandwiches, all for $3 and coffee and coffee, see app . I hope you like it! - see you on the next episode of The Middle East Today's breaking news: Tims Podcast: Tim s Besties: Breaking News: Subscribe to Tims Besties Podcast: , Learn more about your ad-free version of this podcast?


Transcript

00:00:00.000 We interrupt your playlist to bring you breaking news.
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00:00:13.360 It's time for Tim's.
00:00:30.000 Hello, everybody.
00:00:32.040 I have the opportunity today to talk to John Spencer, and we talk about urban warfare.
00:00:39.200 Now, John had a long military career as an on-the-ground infantryman,
00:00:43.920 both as a regular serviceman and as an officer, and in combat in both positions.
00:00:50.420 And then he came to develop an academic career where he focused specifically on the complexities of urban warfare,
00:00:58.260 and that was actually a relatively newly developed field because most wars in the past haven't been fought in an urban environment,
00:01:06.980 but the planet has radically urbanized, and so it was necessary for a new discipline to be developed to concentrate on that.
00:01:14.420 That happened to be particularly relevant at the moment because the conflict between Israel and Hamas is essentially a conflict of urban warfare.
00:01:23.620 Now, there are other elements to it as well, which we also discuss, the public relations element.
00:01:28.920 So the conversation focuses primarily on Gaza and Israel and what the Israelis are attempting to accomplish
00:01:39.220 and what the barriers are there and the nature of urban warfare, the complexities of urban warfare,
00:01:44.680 and the strictures and opportunities that the Israelis have as a consequence of the October 7th events.
00:01:51.060 So I found the conversation extremely enlightening, and I hope that you'll concur.
00:01:58.440 So welcome.
00:02:00.300 All right, well, we might as well dive right in.
00:02:02.940 So we're going to talk a fair bit today about the state of the world in general with regard to all the wars that are currently raging,
00:02:11.580 but I think we might as well zero in on urban warfare as such.
00:02:15.220 That's your particular area of expertise.
00:02:17.120 So maybe we can start just, if you just outline for everybody watching and listening,
00:02:23.620 why is urban warfare your specialty and what does that mean exactly?
00:02:29.080 Well, as an academic, I think you understand I fell into an area where nobody was doing research on it.
00:02:35.340 So that's why urban warfare became my specialty.
00:02:38.120 I spent 25 years in the Army and, of course, had my own urban warfare experiences.
00:02:41.720 I was part of the invasion into Iraq, and I went back and during the height of the violence, basically the sectarian violence.
00:02:48.880 But in around 2014, I became an academic looking at megacities, really any city bigger than 10 million for the four-star of the Army,
00:02:58.360 who said, look at something that we're not thinking about right now.
00:03:01.320 So for over a year, I looked at only megacities and could you accomplish a military mission in there.
00:03:07.820 Then I moved to West Point.
00:03:08.840 I was teaching strategy, you know, full breadth of military history to military theories to different challenges or changes in the character of warfare.
00:03:19.740 But I also stood up a research center that I now work for, the Modern War Institute,
00:03:23.340 which was we also saw a gap in people understanding the wars that are going on now.
00:03:28.740 Historians cover wars that happened in the past, and they're really rigorous about how they do that.
00:03:33.700 Yeah, embedded journalists kind of cover modern wars, but really, like an actual study of what's going on now, there was a gap.
00:03:40.080 So we created the Modern War Institute, and I started writing about urban warfare, and it went viral.
00:03:46.060 So like an academic, it's just like a dream come true.
00:03:48.620 Like, what do you mean there's an area that nobody is studying?
00:03:51.300 And urban warfare, as I dug into even the institutional approach, the militaries don't study urban warfare.
00:03:59.100 Because in our doctrine for years, we've been writing, avoid and bypass at all times.
00:04:03.940 Don't do it.
00:04:05.100 Right.
00:04:05.620 I mean, even this dead Chinese general that never existed, Sun Tzu, said,
00:04:09.900 the worst thing you can do is attack a besieged city.
00:04:12.900 Because it's been the fact.
00:04:14.360 And there's a huge history of war, right?
00:04:16.740 And there's a huge history of fighting for cities, but not in cities.
00:04:21.300 And that started to change really in the 21st century where militaries got smaller.
00:04:28.080 The advancements in technologies made it doesn't make sense to stand out in the open as a military, even if you're a big military.
00:04:34.240 The urban areas, with the urbanization of the world, population growth, the size of peoples and militaries, the rise of non-state actors, all war moved into cities.
00:04:45.920 And arguably, even on state-on-state warfare, like today we see Russia and Ukraine, the decisive battles, the battles that actually determine the future of the wars are happening in the urban areas.
00:04:56.400 Urban areas have always been the prize, the object, the capital city, the economic engine of nations.
00:05:04.980 But militaries have not wanted to fight in cities for all the reasons they don't want to fight in cities today.
00:05:11.300 Okay, so a couple of things there.
00:05:13.940 Sure. So one of the things you pointed out in your 2022 book was that in the 1950s, there were 80 cities in the world with populations of more than a million, and now there's more than 500.
00:05:24.220 So that is an unbelievably radical change.
00:05:26.640 And the cities are also much, much bigger.
00:05:29.300 And so is that part of the explanation for why there was no specific study of urban warfare until 2014?
00:05:37.760 I mean, that's kind of shocking.
00:05:39.640 And so is it merely the consequence of the fact that the world has urbanized so much that no one was paying attention to this?
00:05:46.340 Is it the fact that maybe people didn't want to pay attention to it because fighting in cities is such a complicated affair?
00:05:52.340 What accounts for that?
00:05:54.280 All of it.
00:05:55.260 It really becomes, you know, as I was working for a four-star general in charge of the entire U.S. Army, over a million-man force, I understood that the militaries are also institutions with cultures.
00:06:05.760 Yeah.
00:06:05.960 So there actually was an office a long time ago that studied urban operations.
00:06:10.740 And because of institutional change, there was a decision made like, well, we don't need that office anymore.
00:06:15.900 Absolutely.
00:06:16.620 Wow, that's unbelievable.
00:06:17.680 It is.
00:06:18.320 And there's been many recommendations to include congressional recommendations.
00:06:21.220 Like, you should have a center, an academic program.
00:06:26.260 I mean, there is a jungle, at one time, a jungle warfare center, Arctic warfare center, desert warfare center, never an urban warfare center.
00:06:33.400 It is the war, the battle that nobody wants.
00:06:36.680 Right.
00:06:37.180 Even though it's the war and the battle.
00:06:39.340 Think of any war ever where the urban hasn't been the deciding factor.
00:06:45.120 Yes, one of the reasons we have urban warfare is like, you know, ancient siege warfare.
00:06:49.620 You sent your army forward of your castle to destroy the other army that's approaching rather than go into siege warfare because that doesn't end well for both sides.
00:06:59.600 There's a long-term cognitive kind of historical reason for that.
00:07:04.440 Then some of it's also cultures don't like change.
00:07:06.980 And in militaries, to include those that lead the military, envision a future war of army against army.
00:07:15.160 Right, right, right.
00:07:16.380 What do they say?
00:07:17.000 The military is always 100% prepared to fight the last war.
00:07:20.860 Yeah.
00:07:21.400 One of my mentors.
00:07:22.000 The previous war.
00:07:22.580 They do.
00:07:22.920 They say generals always fight the last war.
00:07:24.360 One of my mentors say that's not even true.
00:07:26.400 The militaries want to fight the war they're comfortable with.
00:07:28.660 Yeah, yeah, right.
00:07:29.880 And to imagine that war.
00:07:31.500 That's right.
00:07:31.720 Okay, now you said too that it's particularly dangerous for modern armies to be out in the open as a consequence of technological transformation.
00:07:40.800 Okay, so one of the things that I've noticed, maybe, you know, and I don't know how accurate this is, but I've been, like, I like to think about how things can go catastrophically wrong.
00:07:51.820 Like to?
00:07:52.540 I'm prone to.
00:07:53.620 And it seems to me that as military equipment gets larger and larger and more expensive, that it's very much in the interest of the people who would be fighting such gigantic machines to produce very small and very inexpensive means of bringing those things down.
00:08:09.400 And so we have drones now, obviously, and they're extremely inexpensive and easy to pilot.
00:08:16.820 And so you said that it's very hard on armies to be out in the open.
00:08:19.940 Okay, so what does that mean exactly?
00:08:21.280 Why is it hard for them to be out in the open and how potentially devastating is that?
00:08:26.300 And I guess maybe I'm curious about how that, is it the Houthis that are wreaking havoc on shipping in the Middle East?
00:08:32.620 Yes.
00:08:33.020 Right, well, they seem to me to be the emergence of the kind of warfare that might be successful against giant equipment.
00:08:39.860 And so can we talk about that a little bit?
00:08:41.860 What is it about being out in the open and how has warfare shifted because of, like, extremely new technology?
00:08:47.240 Yeah, so what we say in, like, teaching strategies, that's the character of warfare is always changing.
00:08:53.420 The weapons, the technologies, the tactics, the nature of war never changes.
00:08:58.280 It's human.
00:08:59.200 It's for political objectives.
00:09:01.620 It's enduring.
00:09:02.500 That aspect of the evolution of aerial platforms from balloons that were literally in the 1800s in wars to drone warfare today is an evolution of that air power in my mind.
00:09:14.360 This is why I found myself in a place called Nagarna-Karabakh in 2021.
00:09:18.640 In 2020, there was a massive war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over this area called Nagarna-Karabakh.
00:09:24.680 And the use of drones, to include with Israeli drones that the Azerbaijanis has, they wreaked havoc against an older military standing in the open.
00:09:33.240 So I went there because everybody said that's the future.
00:09:35.340 That was the future of drone warfare.
00:09:37.180 When actually the war came to an end, a decisive end over one city called Susha, which 400 special forces climbed a cliff and infiltrated the city.
00:09:47.940 All these other things were a factor in that, the drone technology, the ability to see your enemy.
00:09:52.780 If you can see them, you can kill them, all that.
00:09:55.380 But that urban train, again, because it was the objective, became one of the critical factors.
00:10:01.740 So, yes, the evolution of technologies matters on where war happens, who has power, who doesn't.
00:10:07.800 I mean, from the evolution of the nuclear weapon and the ideology of or the thoughts about attacking a nuclear weapon, which was meant to destroy a military in the open.
00:10:16.100 And that's kind of gone as the nuclear deterrence and all that has evolved, not to be a thing anymore.
00:10:22.660 Now it's for, you know, national defense survival, kind of acceptable.
00:10:27.700 There's so many aspects to this and why, you know, we don't, we understudy this aspect of strategy.
00:10:33.540 How did the tools impact the political decisions or the actual where combat happens?
00:10:39.360 And this is why I get to study urban warfare because, one, nobody was studying it.
00:10:42.720 And, two, there's also the evolution of it migrating into cities.
00:10:46.980 There's all these people without the weapons.
00:10:48.980 Like, who's going to stand toe-to-toe with a state actor like the United States, Russia, China?
00:10:54.140 Nobody.
00:10:54.840 But lots of people still want power.
00:10:57.120 They still want all the different things that people fight wars for.
00:11:00.740 And the city said a long time ago, you know, that hasn't changed.
00:11:06.100 But these power structures, so why wouldn't, if you pull a military into an urban area, it's called the Great Equalizer.
00:11:14.040 You can take away its power.
00:11:17.420 You can force them into places they don't want to go.
00:11:19.860 You can break apart.
00:11:20.920 You can make their aerial platforms less effective.
00:11:23.400 You can make their weapons less effective.
00:11:25.860 You have ready-made defensive positions in buildings that you would never have anywhere else on the planet.
00:11:32.680 This, it—
00:11:33.520 So that's a pronounced advantage for the defender.
00:11:36.100 Absolutely.
00:11:36.980 A 15-to-1 advantage, depending on how you calculate combat power.
00:11:41.460 Uh-huh.
00:11:41.820 And if you get there first, even some—so I, you know, one of my studies is, I found out there was a lot of urban legends about urban warfare.
00:11:50.880 Like, things that have happened in the past, we, as a kind of human civilization, we remember what people write about history, not necessarily what happened.
00:11:59.680 So I'm going back and looking at all the urban battles, working my way back, like, what actually happened there?
00:12:04.680 And a lot of them are actually meeting engagements, like the Battle of Stalingrad.
00:12:08.780 Like, nobody was in Stalingrad defending it, really.
00:12:12.340 They hadn't prepared defenses.
00:12:13.340 But the terrain made it be this massive political battle that made no sense.
00:12:19.200 Same thing in Ukraine and Bakhmut.
00:12:21.000 But if somebody's actually in an urban area and prepares it, let's talk like in Gaza, for 15 years, prepares it, I can defend it against the world's biggest military for a certain amount of time.
00:12:32.460 Defenders usually lose an urban terrain.
00:12:34.140 But, you know, war is not about destroying the other military.
00:12:38.080 That never was the objective of Hamas.
00:12:40.160 It's about that political strategy and time.
00:12:44.100 And if I can get into an urban area—this is why I wrote a book for Ukraine in 2022.
00:12:48.480 I wrote a little handbook based on all that I had learned about urban warfare, and it went viral.
00:12:53.800 It was just about how do you hold an urban area for some amount of time so that the situation can change.
00:12:58.760 And it went viral because there's this giant gap of knowledge, even though it's there, because there's nobody who's studying it.
00:13:06.400 Okay, so let's talk about Gaza, because that's almost entirely urban warfare?
00:13:14.100 Yes.
00:13:14.660 Okay, and so you said that the defenders have a 15-to-1 advantage.
00:13:18.960 So what's going on in Gaza?
00:13:22.240 What's your assessment of the situation?
00:13:23.920 I don't mean politically.
00:13:24.880 I mean militarily.
00:13:26.120 Are the Israelis successful in their venture, and how are they conducting the war, in your estimation?
00:13:34.500 Like, I know so little about the actuality of the situation on the ground that it's—well, any information is useful.
00:13:43.180 So how do you conduct?
00:13:45.500 I don't even have the foggiest idea how you'd go about conducting an urban battle.
00:13:49.560 Sure.
00:13:49.880 It's—one is, I've written things because I've studied the history of this.
00:13:55.300 When I tell people that nobody has faced the challenge that Israel faced in Gaza, it's not from an opinion.
00:14:01.400 It's from an analytical statement of the size of the military.
00:14:06.340 So it's a 40,000 defending force that had 15 years to prepare an urban defense, which included 400 miles of tunnels, ranging from 15 feet to 200 feet underground.
00:14:19.860 And the reason it kept going deeper underground, if you know—if you've ever studied Israel, is because Israel developed weapons technology that could hit farther underground.
00:14:27.960 So Hamas just kept going deeper underground.
00:14:30.860 So now they're at a range in many places where no military munition can reach.
00:14:35.400 And unique to Hamas, like, everybody has tunnels.
00:14:38.420 I wrote in my little book for Ukraine, like, start digging.
00:14:41.040 Because if you're underground, you can negate—
00:14:43.620 Air.
00:14:43.940 Air, whether being observed or hit.
00:14:46.740 Right, right.
00:14:47.400 But unique to the world, there's 400 miles in Gaza built solely underneath urban—civilian structures.
00:14:56.020 Uh-huh.
00:14:56.680 Homes, hospitals, schools, mosques.
00:14:59.400 For the sole reason to use this thing called lawfare, which is when there's a history of war.
00:15:05.260 As a matter of fact, one of my mentors, Colin Gregg, says,
00:15:07.820 the evolution of war, most efforts to limit the brutality of war have actually caused more brutality.
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00:16:50.500 Okay, okay.
00:16:54.500 Because when you, like the, you know, the evolution of laws of war, which I've had to study as well,
00:16:59.940 because in urban combat is where the laws of war most apply.
00:17:04.740 Because after World War II, the Geneva Conventions, we said never again were we going to try to punish the civilians
00:17:12.420 to get their political government to give up fighting, because war is a contest of will.
00:17:17.460 Yeah.
00:17:17.800 It's not about destroying the other military, really.
00:17:20.760 It's about convincing the military to give up.
00:17:23.140 Give up, or the political government to give up.
00:17:25.140 Right, right.
00:17:25.880 Like this is, you know.
00:17:26.800 Or convincing the civilian population to overthrow it.
00:17:29.340 Right, but we said, as a globe, those who follow the law of war, we wouldn't do that anymore.
00:17:34.860 We wouldn't carpet bomb Tokyo and kill 300,000.
00:17:37.860 We wouldn't do Dresden's.
00:17:39.400 We wouldn't do these things.
00:17:40.900 You have to target only military targets.
00:17:42.940 So in the urban area, that's where the most constraint on the use of force.
00:17:46.880 Again, why a military wouldn't want to go in an urban area is I can't do whatever I want onto the other military
00:17:52.200 because he's intermixed between protected objects and protected populations.
00:17:56.220 Yeah.
00:17:56.460 So especially if you're not a law of war-following organization, you want to pull that military in there.
00:18:03.900 In Gaza, though, Hamas not only built 400 miles of tunnels, but it built underneath all these structures,
00:18:10.740 and they weaponized the law of war.
00:18:13.100 This is why every hospital in Gaza, Hamas has been found in it.
00:18:18.760 Right.
00:18:19.160 Because hospitals are protected places, the staff.
00:18:21.640 So they're hiding within the law, fundamentally.
00:18:23.540 Some people call it a human shield, but again, what's unique to the challenge that the IDF faced on October 8th
00:18:31.820 was not a combatant, although they are a terrorist organization, but it's an army.
00:18:37.260 It's a power, a political structure with a vast army who has a human sacrifice strategy.
00:18:44.700 Mm-hmm.
00:18:46.000 And in my history, my study of war, I've never found that.
00:18:49.720 Okay, so explain the human sacrifice strategy.
00:18:52.320 Yeah, human—well, I'll explain human shields.
00:18:54.160 Yeah, okay.
00:18:54.820 Human shield strategy means that you put your people in front of you so the other military can't attack you.
00:18:59.980 So they'll restrain themselves.
00:19:01.200 And the same thing if you use protected buildings like mosque, hospitals, schools, that's more of human shield strategy.
00:19:08.300 As in, you know that that other force can't directly attack you without actually going through the laws of war on notifications and all these things.
00:19:16.940 Right, and that means that they'll lose the public relations battle, let's say.
00:19:20.500 I mean, one of the things I thought when this conflict started was that really all that the Palestinians, the Hamas, Hamas needed to do,
00:19:31.180 and Iran, let's say, behind it all, was hold out long enough to let the Israelis obtain a victory at a cost that was too great on the human relations front.
00:19:43.920 Right, is that as Israel's victory mounts and the human cost of that is broadcast, that would mean defeat for the Israelis on the public relations front.
00:19:54.800 And my suspicions were that—I don't know what you think about this hypothesis—but my sense was that Iran prodded the Palestinians into the October 7th attack so that they could undermine the Abraham Accords.
00:20:07.560 And so they provoked the Israelis into the response that we've seen, hoping that that would turn, certainly, the Islamic, the Arab world viciously against the Abraham Accords and cause the West and Iran's enemies undue trouble.
00:20:24.460 And so far, the Abraham Accords have held, but we've seen the consequences of the public relations battle that's been produced as a result of Israel's foray into Gaza.
00:20:40.140 So, is that in accordance in any way with your understanding of the situation?
00:20:44.840 Absolutely.
00:20:45.720 I mean—
00:20:46.060 Okay, so that is what you think's happening.
00:20:48.000 Absolutely.
00:20:48.440 Why are we so stupidly taken in by the Iranian maneuvers then?
00:20:53.140 Because it seemed obvious to me right from the beginning that that was the strategy.
00:20:57.000 So, why do you think it is, for example, that there's so much noise and protest on the universities that's essentially in favor, really fundamentally in favor of what the Iranians are doing?
00:21:08.480 Why is that succeeding?
00:21:11.220 Because our world's greatest academic institutions are creating the dumbest people.
00:21:16.440 Yeah.
00:21:16.680 Who can't critically think.
00:21:19.700 Who can't critically think of, like, literally just the get your facts straight on what you did as you are aggrieved by or that you're so opinionated by.
00:21:30.620 Well, Kamani himself had tweeted out two days ago his thanks to American universities for providing him with the support that they've provided.
00:21:38.920 Well, even if you say free Palestine from what?
00:21:43.660 Yeah, the river to the sea.
00:21:44.980 From the river to sea.
00:21:45.780 I study strategy, right?
00:21:47.800 So, I try to stay out of politics, although war is the pursuit of political objectives.
00:21:52.040 Yeah.
00:21:52.560 What you just stated, with Iran's direct funding, training, and direction to its proxies.
00:22:00.000 Yeah.
00:22:00.680 Which include, doesn't matter what their religion is, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraq, Shia.
00:22:06.660 Yeah, yeah.
00:22:07.060 Like, these are all known facts, and there is an element of proxy warfare, which is within the global international order of a thing, right?
00:22:15.140 Proxy warfare, it's a thing.
00:22:17.580 Now, Iran being unique in history as the world's global exporter of terrorism.
00:22:23.060 I lost soldiers in Iraq, two Iranian forces crossing into Iraq, training Iraq, Shia militias to attack the United States.
00:22:31.620 But that was known.
00:22:34.840 But in this sense, I can tell you that that's a part of the strategy, of course, of what happened on October 7th.
00:22:39.280 But from a military strategy, what you briefed as well is, Hamas' attack on October 7th, while I walk that ground and understand it as an invasion, not a terrorist attack.
00:22:48.880 It was an invasion of Israel with the intention to go as far north as they could to activate all the West Bank, to activate Hezbollah, and to really do a large-scale attack.
00:22:59.820 I see.
00:23:00.320 Oh, I see.
00:23:01.020 So it was part of a much broader plan.
00:23:03.980 Why didn't that work?
00:23:05.780 Hundreds of Israelis, many of them without even their weapons, standing in the door, standing in what I would call the hot gates.
00:23:14.140 I mean, there's so many moments that I've walked that ground in southern Israel where just an off-duty name, police person, in a vehicle, dying at a critical point, which just slowed that advance down.
00:23:26.880 There's one—
00:23:27.200 Just so ordinary Israelis.
00:23:29.700 Many of them ordinary Israelis or off-duty—
00:23:32.380 Oh, yeah.
00:23:33.300 —who, you know, 70-year-old men who used to serve in the military heading south to stand in the door to prevent them from heading towards Tel Aviv, to Jerusalem, to other places.
00:23:42.780 But their maps actually said it.
00:23:45.000 Hamas maps said where they were headed.
00:23:48.120 And they just didn't get there because of many situations, and I hope those stories get out, and I can tell you many of them, where they ran into an Israeli who was willing to fight for their nation, which is a really big part of war as well.
00:24:01.940 Right.
00:24:02.260 So they had—the Israelis had a population that was ready at the individual level to protect the country.
00:24:09.000 Right.
00:24:09.520 So they weren't defending—they weren't depending only on their military to stop this invasion.
00:24:15.120 There's lots to that, as in absolutely, you know, a nation is built with this security apparatus, both the actual military whose job is to defend the nation, and then you have the security forces.
00:24:27.400 There is a cultural aspect of living in Israel where you've been attacked so many times that you have to be ready, whether it is the bomb shelter that you have to jump into, or the actual how many times Israel as a nation has had to fight back, I mean, five nations at one time.
00:24:43.840 I understand that history and have walked much to that ground.
00:24:46.180 That happened again.
00:24:47.160 So does that imply in some way that one of the strategic necessities when urban warfare is a likelihood is that the general population itself needs to be prepared to fight, trained and prepared to fight?
00:25:06.940 I mean, this is, again, going back to my injecting myself into the Ukraine war in a unique way through Twitter.
00:25:12.680 I made a tweet, a seven-thread tweet, on February 26th of 2022, two days after the invasion, as a guy who studied urban warfare for 20 years.
00:25:23.620 If I was standing in a city in Ukraine, this is what I would do, because most civilians don't know how to resist, even if they have the will to resist.
00:25:33.260 But this is why, again, the history of war and why we can look at what Israel has done in Gaza under the political constraints and why it has done the things it's done, the United States wouldn't have done it that way.
00:25:45.520 The whole purpose of war is to rapidly overwhelm your enemy, not destroy them all so they lose that will to fight.
00:25:52.800 So like Russia's invasion of Kiev, the whole point was to rush it, get into the center, take out the government, raise the Russian flag, war is over.
00:26:01.840 Right, right.
00:26:02.680 But the people resisted, because they had the will, they didn't have the way.
00:26:07.060 So yes, if you're, this is, it's called total defense, and it goes, it's way back in European history.
00:26:13.260 All the European countries had this concept of, if invaded, we're all going to stand up, whether the Finnish gun culture, the Polish, this ideal that you're going to resist, defend.
00:26:24.900 Some people call it resistance, I call it total defense.
00:26:27.160 Right, right.
00:26:27.720 It is a big part of actual having a society, especially if you have somebody, this again, which no military has faced in modern history, where Gaza is, you know, two miles from Israel and is attacking.
00:26:41.900 That proximity to an existential threat is real, is clear.
00:26:46.640 It's clear, if not evidenced by October 7th, which actually factors into the law of war, like proportionality.
00:26:54.060 Like, this is the number, one of the terms that started getting misused on October 8th.
00:26:58.320 Right.
00:26:58.780 This number of Israelis died, so you can only proportionally kill that, like, that's not the way the law of war works.
00:27:04.060 The law of war says you can respond with the appropriate force proportionally to achieve the goal.
00:27:10.920 Right, so that's minimal necessary force, in a sense, like the common law doctrine.
00:27:15.680 Yes, absolutely.
00:27:16.560 Right, so you shouldn't use any more force than necessary to achieve your valid military aim.
00:27:22.900 Right.
00:27:23.080 Which, in Israel's case, would have been the elimination of a potential future threat of the same type they faced on October 7th, I presume.
00:27:31.400 A real threat.
00:27:32.200 But, and this is, again, so this, back to that human sacrifice strategy.
00:27:36.460 Like, nobody will, to include these kids on college campuses, won't listen to the words that Hamas say.
00:27:41.980 Like, they imagine some aggrieved, and I know you've covered this a lot about that, who's the oppressed and who's the oppressor.
00:27:47.660 You won't take the organization's words and actions for what they are.
00:27:52.200 So, a human sacrifice strategy that nobody has done, Nazis, Japanese, ISIS, where they state and act in a way that they say they need as many of their population,
00:28:02.200 their population to die as possible, to achieve their political goal of the war.
00:28:07.120 Okay, so it seems to me that there would be two tiers to that then.
00:28:11.100 So, tell me if I've got this wrong.
00:28:13.180 I mean, my sense with regards to the Palestinians in general, and this is especially true in Iran,
00:28:19.500 is that the Iranian powers that be would use all the Palestinians as sacrificial victims at any moment,
00:28:27.000 if they could provide an effective thorn in Israel's side and in the side of the West.
00:28:32.060 And then my sense is, too, that the Hamas leadership, given its history, is sufficiently corrupt financially and economically,
00:28:41.820 and under the sway of Iran as well, so that it has no qualms whatsoever about using its citizens as cannon fodder for its designs on Israel and the West.
00:28:55.560 Is there anything, is that an accurate analysis?
00:28:59.900 I think so.
00:29:00.520 I mean, Iran's willingness to sacrifice all its proxies, that's pretty rational.
00:29:05.700 Well, why wouldn't they?
00:29:07.020 Yeah.
00:29:07.340 I mean, you know, apart from what you might regard as humanitarian concerns, which I don't really think apply in the current situation in the least.
00:29:14.440 And there's, again, take them for their words.
00:29:15.920 Iran's strategy, they call Israel the little Satan.
00:29:18.860 Yeah, right.
00:29:19.440 America the great Satan.
00:29:20.340 Right, right, right.
00:29:20.680 And they want to destroy both.
00:29:22.000 Right.
00:29:22.240 Through the use of this exporting of terrorism and the pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
00:29:26.940 Yeah.
00:29:27.300 Like, they say these things.
00:29:28.060 Okay, fine.
00:29:28.460 Yeah, right.
00:29:29.280 Well, that seems to be exactly what's happening.
00:29:31.300 But the difference in Hamas, I don't think you can classify it as a cannon fodder.
00:29:34.960 Again, listen to the words they say.
00:29:36.760 They need, because they believe in their ideology that martyrdom is the path.
00:29:40.800 So, they're willing to martyr all of their population to achieve their political goal.
00:29:46.260 Not to achieve some geographic ideal of a new place.
00:29:50.160 Their goal, stated and written, is the destruction of Israel and the death of all Jews in the world.
00:29:55.360 And their path to that is the death of their population, that they act.
00:29:59.340 Okay, so you're saying that it isn't only that the civilians are being manipulated by the Hamas leadership in Iran, but that they're participating in this as a consequence of the fundamental doctrine of Hamas.
00:30:12.240 Correct.
00:30:12.820 Right.
00:30:13.080 Okay, so then I guess my question would be, to what degree are the Palestinian citizens, especially the younger ones, and I suppose this is partly what the compassionate people on the university campuses are getting at.
00:30:26.780 I mean, if you're 15, 16 years old, and you've been bombarded by Iranian propaganda since you were even younger than that, into believing that your best pathway forward is martyrdom, then to what degree can you be held responsible for the fact that you believe it?
00:30:46.220 And so, I mean, I have the same conundrum, for example, with regards to the protesters on American campuses.
00:30:52.520 I mean, a lot of these kids have been propagandized throughout high school into this victim-victimizer narrative, and they buy it completely.
00:31:02.580 And it's very unfortunate, and I think that they're very dangerous in consequence, but I've seen the consequences of that propaganda among young people.
00:31:12.540 It's very demoralizing, and it's also extremely effective.
00:31:15.560 I mean, we did a study in 2016 looking at the predictors of support for politically correct authoritarianism, which is very relevant with regards to what's happening on the campus.
00:31:26.400 And one of the things we found was that even having had one politically correct course at any time in your life was a significant predictor of sympathy with politically correct authoritarian views.
00:31:38.120 Now, there were other predictors.
00:31:39.420 Not being very bright was one of them, right?
00:31:42.020 So low verbal IQ, while that's relevant, you know, low verbal IQ is a good predictor, comparatively speaking, and so was being female and having a feminine temperament.
00:31:51.140 And the fourth best predictor was ever having been propagandized.
00:31:54.540 And so, how much of the doctrine that's—I know maybe I'm taking you out of your area of specialty here, you know, because this is a more political or even a theological question.
00:32:04.280 But how much of the propaganda story that's driving the Palestinian civilian cooperation with Hamas do you think is a consequence of planned propagandization at the hands of the Iranians?
00:32:18.640 And how much—a lot?
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00:33:29.680 I mean, this is—this—so this is the problem with the ramifications of this war.
00:33:36.520 Right, because it would be a proven Iranian strategy.
00:33:39.980 Spend decades radicalizing the culture from primary school on, the books, the payment structure, you know, the pay-for-slave program of the Palestinian Authority.
00:33:52.640 All those are multi-decade approaches to radicalize a population to achieve your political goals.
00:34:00.300 So, absolutely, that's there.
00:34:02.180 From me, as my expertise, though, this is where I think we've definitely reached that point in the war against Hamas and Gaza, is this, how do you defeat an ideology?
00:34:13.680 That's for sure.
00:34:14.760 Right.
00:34:14.980 I work in the world of strategy and war.
00:34:18.760 Yeah.
00:34:19.240 But I am fighting on a daily basis of now, people who have spent, you know, their PhDs in counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and saying that you're creating more enemy or more terrorist than you're killing.
00:34:33.380 Right, right.
00:34:34.360 You're radical—
00:34:34.980 Because of the military, because of the military, right, right.
00:34:37.380 So, it's a—even if there's a short-term victory, that doesn't mean that you're ensuring the long-term victory.
00:34:41.920 Quite the contrary.
00:34:43.020 Right.
00:34:43.300 Right.
00:34:43.600 And do you think that's happening in Gaza?
00:34:45.920 It's bullocks.
00:34:47.120 It's a fallacy of thinking.
00:34:50.320 And I think it's anti-intellectual.
00:34:52.900 Okay, okay.
00:34:53.760 Yeah.
00:34:54.300 Explain why.
00:34:55.160 That's like saying you cannot remove Hitler and the Nazi regime or dismantle its military because you'll further radicalize the German population who believe in the Nazi ideology.
00:35:07.040 Okay, well, you can imagine a circumstance under which that might occur, but the one that you just laid out obviously didn't occur.
00:35:15.260 Quite the contrary.
00:35:15.980 The defeat of the Nazi regime meant—really meant all things considered, the defeat of the Nazi ideology.
00:35:22.680 Okay, so let's go back to Hamas.
00:35:25.820 Yes.
00:35:26.880 What do you think the Israeli strategy is at the moment?
00:35:30.400 How is that playing out?
00:35:31.680 Are they being successful?
00:35:33.300 Do you think it's a good strategy?
00:35:34.740 And do you think it has a chance at defeating this ideology?
00:35:38.840 I mean, if it's fostered by Iran, okay, I haven't been able to envision what a pathway to victory for the Israelis looks like.
00:35:50.460 Okay.
00:35:50.560 So tell me what you think about that.
00:35:52.640 So I actually got to go visit.
00:35:53.840 You know, I've been into Gaza twice.
00:35:55.620 In December, in Hamas tunnels.
00:35:58.000 And in February, with the IDF in Khan Yunus, I interviewed the prime minister.
00:36:02.780 I'm like, what are your strategic goals you gave to the military?
00:36:05.500 I interviewed the head of the IDF, multiple subordinate commanders.
00:36:09.020 There's the objectives for Israel, the path to victory, which is always hard to define in war, right?
00:36:14.160 Right, right.
00:36:15.200 Now, at this point, we're going to—
00:36:16.060 A tricky problem.
00:36:16.740 There's already people who have said it's a strategic failure for Israel.
00:36:20.620 Already.
00:36:21.260 And the war's not even known.
00:36:22.400 Yeah.
00:36:23.140 But it is very clear what was the objectives.
00:36:28.720 Number one, bringing the hostages home.
00:36:30.140 So of the 240 hostages taken on October 7th, it's a clear war goal to bring them home.
00:36:36.340 And Israel has brought over half of them home.
00:36:37.920 There's 124 left in Gaza.
00:36:40.420 The other one was to remove Hamas from power and dismantle its military capability.
00:36:45.860 Right.
00:36:46.200 Okay.
00:36:46.560 But then the question is, who exactly is Hamas?
00:36:49.080 How do you distinguish them from the civilians?
00:36:51.060 And what are the—so you said you can respond proportionately, so you're going to remove Hamas's military capacity.
00:36:57.820 But if Hamas is in some ways indistinguishable from the Palestinian civilian population, then how do you know when you've—how do you know when you've won, right?
00:37:07.440 And in a manner that's going to matter in the future.
00:37:10.380 I love this.
00:37:11.280 I love this specificity that most people don't ask.
00:37:14.760 How do you distinguish in a situation like this where Hamas is using human sacrifice, human shields, wearing civilians?
00:37:21.420 There's not a single Hamas military building in Gaza.
00:37:25.360 Right, right.
00:37:26.180 Not one.
00:37:27.380 So how do you move forward?
00:37:28.640 I actually want the laws of war upheld.
00:37:30.560 There's actually very clear guidance, even with a non-state actor not wearing a uniform, what classifies as a combatant or non-combatant or as a person partaking in the hostilities.
00:37:40.740 As in, you're shooting at the IDF.
00:37:44.140 You're a combatant.
00:37:46.260 Right, right.
00:37:47.060 That seems clear.
00:37:47.960 Now, who's in Hamas—this is actually my business to the IDF—like, they have a board, like, walls of every member of Hamas's military, from brigade commander, battalion commander, company commanders, and either exes for killed and captured.
00:38:01.400 As they're breaking apart, the goal of dismantling a military is never, just like we talked about in the beginning, to destroy all of them, to kill every member of Hamas.
00:38:11.340 It's never been the goal in the war.
00:38:13.580 And always after the war, once you remove that power, whether it is the Japanese emperor or Hitler himself, there's still going to be tens of thousands of—you have to reconcile them.
00:38:24.980 You have to do de-radicalization programs.
00:38:28.860 You have to disarm people.
00:38:30.680 Right.
00:38:30.940 And that is possible.
00:38:32.440 It's possible, proven, everything.
00:38:34.140 Right.
00:38:34.360 Worked in Germany.
00:38:35.180 Worked in Japan.
00:38:35.900 I can't tell you what that looks like the day after, but I can tell you it will never even begin to work if Hamas stays in power.
00:38:43.700 Yeah.
00:38:44.100 So the path to victory, step one is remove Hamas from power.
00:38:48.100 Step two is remove its military—
00:38:49.900 And so that means targeting those people that are identified in the way that you already described.
00:38:56.980 Targeting enough of them until what?
00:38:59.360 Like, who gives up in this situation?
00:39:02.020 Like, how would the Israelis know when Hamas is actually being sufficiently defeated?
00:39:07.460 Yeah.
00:39:07.700 So in this case, again, it's measurable.
00:39:09.780 Like, it's literally like measures of effectiveness and measures of performance are pretty clear on how do you remove a form from power is when they're—the leadership that is the power.
00:39:18.480 Right?
00:39:18.680 Just like when—if Zelensky would have left Ukraine, it would have went a lot differently.
00:39:23.120 Right.
00:39:23.580 Because the leadership is a symbol of the power.
00:39:26.680 And if you—if it gets broken apart, then another power can be put in place.
00:39:31.120 Like, now that person is in power.
00:39:32.660 Right.
00:39:32.960 We've done—we bring our powers with us, right?
00:39:35.260 Invasion of Afghanistan, invasion of Iraq.
00:39:37.980 We brought people with us who said that they would be the new power.
00:39:41.440 Right.
00:39:41.760 That's the challenge of the day after.
00:39:43.040 But from the actual objective of the war, Hamas is still in power.
00:39:47.360 It's not an insurgency.
00:39:48.640 It's not a coward and terrorist campaign.
00:39:50.920 Hamas is a political body ruling Gaza through its now somewhat broken apart units.
00:39:57.940 But it's still there.
00:39:59.480 It's still in power and publicly stating things and negotiating all this stuff.
00:40:03.760 Right.
00:40:03.980 So it's still a recognizable entity.
00:40:05.800 That's right.
00:40:06.740 Okay.
00:40:07.220 It's not—once it gets to the point where it's not a functioning organization—so even from the political apparatus or the military, it's really definable.
00:40:14.940 Militarily, you say you can destroy a military when it can't do its assigned mission, attack or defend, and it can't reconstitute itself.
00:40:23.040 That's pretty easy.
00:40:24.420 Politically, you could probably apply the same metric.
00:40:26.720 It can't rule in its assigned geographic location.
00:40:31.440 Right now, one of the reasons that you have so many broken apart Hamas members from fighting is because they still think they'll win.
00:40:40.000 Right.
00:40:40.740 Right.
00:40:41.200 So the will hasn't been destroyed.
00:40:42.680 That's right.
00:40:42.880 Why would you give up?
00:40:44.240 Your leadership's still safe in southern Gaza.
00:40:47.800 The message is continue to resist until the IDF has stopped.
00:40:52.980 This goes back to your question about, again, military strategy is not that complicated as we want to make it.
00:40:58.560 Yes, defeating ideology is very complicated.
00:41:01.840 From a military strategy, both sides had a grand strategy.
00:41:06.440 I already told you what Hamas is, but they also had a military strategy.
00:41:08.540 Hamas' military strategy was never to defeat the IDF on the field of battle.
00:41:14.960 It's never been.
00:41:15.740 Like you said, they actually have a strategy that's based on time for the international community, namely the United States, like the United States has in almost every one of Israel's wars.
00:41:25.540 To stop the Israel saying, look, I know you had the right to self-defense, whether it's the Six Day of War, Yom Kippur War, you name it.
00:41:34.080 Say, I know you had the right to self-defense, but you need to stop.
00:41:36.700 Right, right.
00:41:37.300 So that's hence the protests on American campuses.
00:41:40.920 That's the Hamas strategy working.
00:41:42.820 Right, right.
00:41:43.320 Of course, of course.
00:41:44.460 But this is...
00:41:45.600 How much of that...
00:41:46.760 All right.
00:41:47.200 So after October 7th and the campus protests emerged and very rapidly, how much of that was a consequence of a strategy that was conscious, that was put in place consciously by Iranian actors or proxies in the aftermath of October 7th?
00:42:07.460 And how much of it was spontaneous consequence, let's say, of the victim-victimizer narrative?
00:42:13.060 Like, to what degree has Iran managed to co-opt actors in the West that can organize those sorts of protests?
00:42:22.680 Yeah.
00:42:23.960 All organized, all history learned.
00:42:27.280 I mean, I can take you back to battles in which the United States would stop.
00:42:30.280 Through that use of social media, Al Jazeera, and others saying, they're violating the laws of war.
00:42:38.360 Too many civilians are dying.
00:42:39.620 They're being deproached and to stop.
00:42:41.320 But within Israel's context, I mean, I don't want to take away from Yair Asimwar sitting in jail for many, many years thinking of what are the weaknesses of Israel.
00:42:52.080 It's reliance on the United States.
00:42:55.220 It's casualty aversion.
00:42:57.960 Like, it doesn't—IDF has—Israel has stopped wars from a very low number of IDF casualtys, hostages.
00:43:05.380 Of course, I mean, a nation that small, you know, they've held a single guy for years and gotten thousands of prisoners in exchange.
00:43:14.340 Hamas has.
00:43:14.820 Right, right.
00:43:16.640 So, yes, Iran in this larger picture of the geopolitical situation.
00:43:22.140 Okay, so that's why you made reference earlier to this idea that the attempts to reduce brutality can make it worse, right?
00:43:30.120 Because when you change the rules, you open up new strategic possibilities that are put in place in consequence of being able to manipulate the rules.
00:43:41.100 Yeah, this is the Western—we call it the liberal dilemma.
00:43:44.820 Yeah, right, right, right.
00:43:45.760 And the enemies of Western societies have learned that—war is always a contest of will of three populations.
00:43:53.140 The militaries fighting, of course.
00:43:55.340 The politicians who are ordering the militaries to fight, but their populations.
00:43:59.900 Yeah.
00:44:00.160 We lost the Vietnam War, not because of the field of battle, of course, because the American population said, we don't see the interest in this, and the Conkite effect.
00:44:09.100 So, the actual—that social media effect was there in the Vietnam War.
00:44:12.200 Sure, sure.
00:44:13.060 So, it's the contest of these three wills that have led to this point, absolutely.
00:44:19.360 But that weakness has also led to an aversion.
00:44:23.840 So, this is my—again, because I've been in this field with the United Nations and Human Rights Watch and Human Rights groups who have risen in their vocal power to say, that's not okay, whatever it is.
00:44:38.300 Right, so now that's weaponized.
00:44:40.540 That's why you have Gaza.
00:44:42.340 Yeah.
00:44:42.700 That's why you have 400 miles of tunnels underneath civilians.
00:44:45.960 That's why you have every hospital serving as a military purpose.
00:44:49.120 Well, it's also why the Iranian PSYOPs agents, let's say, can twist the moral force of the West to their own advantage.
00:45:01.900 It's why you have urban warfare.
00:45:04.380 Okay, expand on that.
00:45:05.720 So, if I—as we've been talking, if I'm a non-state actor or a great—my actual long strategy is to defeat you.
00:45:15.900 I'm not trying to defeat you.
00:45:17.440 I'm trying to turn your population against you.
00:45:19.960 Mm-hmm.
00:45:20.580 So, I pull you into an urban area.
00:45:22.280 Right.
00:45:22.420 Show you photos of dead children.
00:45:23.740 Right, right, right.
00:45:24.720 And you will stop your government and force your government to do things they don't even want.
00:45:30.280 And this has been the—like an example.
00:45:32.960 Have you heard of the 2,000-pound bomb?
00:45:35.880 Is it the bunker buster?
00:45:37.660 Yeah.
00:45:38.000 Yeah.
00:45:38.300 How awful it is to use in urban warfare.
00:45:41.600 Okay, no, I don't know about that.
00:45:43.340 So, one of the many criticisms against the IDF's operations in Gaza has been the use of bombs.
00:45:50.960 Yeah.
00:45:51.220 As a matter of fact, there's a misnomer that if you bomb less, there'll be less than a million casualties.
00:45:55.040 We can talk about it if you want.
00:45:56.340 But one of the biggest things, to include the U.S. administration, because of this belief of the use of one bomb called the 2,000-pound bomb,
00:46:06.180 is that they've used so many of them that nobody else would have done that, that Israel is purposely trying to cause destruction.
00:46:13.640 Okay, yeah.
00:46:14.340 It's a vilification of one—
00:46:16.420 Right, right, right.
00:46:17.160 That's an effective communication strategy, right?
00:46:19.420 Because it sounds monstrous, a 2,000-pound bomb, and, okay, I can see how that would work effectively.
00:46:25.060 And then you found a bunch of human rights groups which can tell you how much, what size the explosion is, how much concrete it is.
00:46:30.940 Then you find different people who say, well, we didn't use that many of those in the last 30 years, and Israel's used this many.
00:46:36.300 We used over 5,000 2,000-pound bombs in the one month of the invasion of Iraq.
00:46:44.300 You know why?
00:46:45.460 Because there were military complexes underneath buildings.
00:46:49.820 Right, right, right.
00:46:50.680 So you have to go deep.
00:46:53.100 A 2,000-pound bomb only goes 50 feet underground.
00:46:55.940 A bunker busting.
00:46:56.380 Right, right.
00:46:57.000 And I just told you, I was in 150 feet underground in a Hamas tunnel in December.
00:47:02.060 But all the criticism of a 2,000-pound bomb and Israel's use against a combatant in underground structure says, you know, it's just, you know, abhorrent that they would use this tool in war.
00:47:14.640 Right.
00:47:14.900 I think it puts U.S. national security at risk.
00:47:17.760 So next time when you send my brothers and sisters or our military into war, you're going to say that they can't use a 2,000-pound bomb against an enemy underneath certain buildings or in a bunker.
00:47:30.860 Right, right, right.
00:47:31.560 That's really where we're going.
00:47:32.880 But it's the evolution of this hitting at the West, the liberal democracy or the liberal dilemma to say that you can find a different way.
00:47:42.520 Yeah, yeah, got it.
00:47:43.700 Okay, so tell me what Israel is doing and has done.
00:47:49.740 So they're fighting urban warfare, you said, with a 15-to-1 disadvantage, fundamentally.
00:47:55.560 Now, my understanding is that the IDF is doing what it can do to minimize non-combatant targets.
00:48:03.480 Do you believe that that's the case?
00:48:05.620 I've written with evidence that Israel is doing more to prevent civilian casualties than any military has done in the history of war.
00:48:12.840 Okay, okay.
00:48:13.700 Okay, so you think that's valid.
00:48:15.160 So what sort of things do they do to make that a reality?
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00:49:38.500 Sure.
00:49:39.160 And this is why I went back in February.
00:49:40.880 Like, I wanted to see it for myself.
00:49:43.020 Yeah.
00:49:43.220 Not just the access to information everybody else has.
00:49:46.040 I wanted to ask them, like, how are you doing this?
00:49:48.020 Yeah.
00:49:48.900 Given the complexity of a combatant who uses the human sacrifice strategy.
00:49:53.200 Yeah, right.
00:49:53.760 So the number one thing that people have done, although, again, the strategy to win wars is to do it rapidly.
00:50:00.820 Right.
00:50:01.760 And is that also because opposition to the war mounts as it's protracted?
00:50:06.740 Whereas politics.
00:50:07.700 Yeah, absolutely.
00:50:08.540 Absolutely.
00:50:08.860 So the more dragged out it is, the more dragged out of victory, the more costly it is on the public relations side.
00:50:14.480 That's right.
00:50:14.820 Because the losers start to look like victims.
00:50:17.580 Or if they have, I mean, this is Ukraine had to hold for a while.
00:50:21.360 It had to slow Russia down from achieving an overwhelming coup de main, which is overthrow the government and the fight's over.
00:50:28.780 Right, right.
00:50:29.540 So it's always to get in there and rapidly achieve your goals.
00:50:33.600 Yeah.
00:50:34.540 If you can slow the army down, then all these other political elements.
00:50:37.940 Sure.
00:50:38.280 What Israel did, though, was implemented things to prevent civilian harm.
00:50:45.100 After October 7th, they waited three weeks before they entered Gaza.
00:50:50.020 Right.
00:50:50.440 They did evacuation.
00:50:51.400 That is the overwhelming number one thing that any military has ever done in the history of war to prevent civilian harm is evacuate cities.
00:50:57.720 Although you—
00:50:59.720 Well, and that's a very strange thing in this situation because the city is the target.
00:51:03.460 This was the misnomer, too.
00:51:05.800 I saw that Gaza is the densest place on earth.
00:51:08.680 I saw that on October 8th.
00:51:09.960 And I studied cities for a living.
00:51:11.180 Like, they're not even—it's not even the top 100.
00:51:12.920 It has—it is—it has 10 massive cities, a total of 24 cities, that are very dense.
00:51:21.100 But there's also—it's not one continuous urban area.
00:51:24.520 But you are right that in any war I've studied, there's never been a population trapped in the combat area.
00:51:32.100 Although in the 2016-17 Battle of Mosul, a city of a million, the Iraqi government told the civilians to stay in the city.
00:51:39.540 Yeah.
00:51:40.380 850,000 of them to stay in the city during the battle because they didn't have a place for them to go.
00:51:44.220 Eventually, they told them to go out.
00:51:45.460 But because of Egypt, the Palestinian people of Gaza had nowhere to go.
00:51:49.880 Right.
00:51:50.280 So Israel—
00:51:50.940 Can you explain that?
00:51:51.680 Why did the Palestinians have no place to go because of Egypt?
00:51:55.180 There's a long history there.
00:51:56.660 To include—there's a city, Rafa, that used to be on both sides.
00:52:01.720 And that Egypt—that history escapes our campuses, I guess.
00:52:05.800 Yeah, you might say that, yeah.
00:52:07.660 That Egypt destroyed the homes of 100,000 people on their side and evacuated all those people because there were a bunch of smuggling tunnels going in between and terrorism on their side.
00:52:19.200 Right.
00:52:19.680 They don't want a radicalized population.
00:52:22.960 Right, so they don't want to bring in the post—
00:52:24.560 Right, right, right.
00:52:25.440 Well, it is the case, if I've got this right, that the Arab world in general has refused to take Palestinian refugees in any great numbers.
00:52:35.380 That is the case.
00:52:36.420 And this is the reason, the reason that you just described.
00:52:39.340 Depending on what nation you're talking about, absolutely.
00:52:41.300 Some say it's because they don't want a forced displacement.
00:52:45.340 So they use that as an excuse.
00:52:46.980 But for Egypt, it's very clear.
00:52:49.400 Okay.
00:52:49.720 They share the border with Gaza.
00:52:51.520 Okay.
00:52:51.800 It would be very easy for them to open that side up of the Sinai, and these kids need to look on a map.
00:52:57.360 I mean, where Egypt is in this giant desert called the Sinai, there makes—it is not rational to say that Egypt couldn't have opened their side up, created a humanitarian zone outside of the combat area.
00:53:10.060 It's just not rational.
00:53:10.980 So where did the Palestinian refugees that Israel allowed to escape go?
00:53:16.080 They went to a place that Israel established.
00:53:18.620 And nobody has asked this question.
00:53:19.620 Like, why did Israel create the Al-Mawasi humanitarian zone on the southwestern edge of Gaza?
00:53:27.260 Yeah, right.
00:53:27.600 I haven't even heard of that.
00:53:28.620 That's the giant, over-a-million-people humanitarian zone that Israel designated in October for all the displaced people to go.
00:53:38.340 Because it's the one area they knew Hamas did not have immense defensive positions set up, like tunnels.
00:53:44.820 I see, I see, I see.
00:53:46.280 So how did Israel ensure that when all the refugees went to this zone that hadn't been militarized, let's say, by Hamas, that it wouldn't just be as infiltrated by Hamas as Gaza itself is?
00:54:02.620 Like, so how do they know that the refugees are refugees and not military combatants?
00:54:06.540 Great.
00:54:06.940 It's a good question.
00:54:07.620 I know you have some of them identified, but okay.
00:54:10.840 It's a good question.
00:54:11.640 So initially, little control.
00:54:14.000 Yeah, right.
00:54:14.640 Okay, because it was quick.
00:54:16.140 Yeah.
00:54:16.480 Israel did move forward and split Gaza in half, along with what's called the Wadi Gaza.
00:54:20.760 This is a river that splits Gaza almost in half.
00:54:23.200 I mean, it's 25 miles, but they split in half.
00:54:26.360 850,000, which is actually an effective metric of evacuations.
00:54:32.520 So the world said you can't do it.
00:54:33.960 I don't know if you remember that.
00:54:34.720 When Israel announced evacuations to protect civilian life before they moved in to get their hostages and destroy Hamas, the world said you can't do that.
00:54:42.540 You can't evacuate a million people.
00:54:44.800 That literally was the statement from the United Nations and others.
00:54:47.380 You can't do that.
00:54:48.280 Israel did it and successfully evacuated 850,000 below that.
00:54:52.260 But you're right.
00:54:53.360 Many Hamas leadership and hostages were moved during that time.
00:54:57.460 As Israel was allowing for the protection of civilians, rather than, like other militaries invading a territory, do it with overwhelming force to achieve your goals quickly.
00:55:07.560 Right, quickly.
00:55:08.240 Right, right, right.
00:55:09.560 So they took the risk of the hit on the public relations side.
00:55:12.680 Because they know from their own history that they have to keep international will, even after October 7th.
00:55:19.080 International will, and the United States, who started making recommendations on day one of what Israel could or couldn't do.
00:55:25.540 Right, right.
00:55:26.360 Like Israel wanted to go in with a larger force.
00:55:28.480 And there was, you know, discussions at the political level, all wars, politics.
00:55:32.020 You can't go in with five divisions.
00:55:33.380 You have to use four divisions.
00:55:35.240 And now we're in Raphael.
00:55:36.160 You can't go in with two divisions.
00:55:37.340 You've got to go in with one division.
00:55:38.340 That's what you saw.
00:55:40.660 But Israel learned.
00:55:41.740 So Israel did, by the time I visited in Khan Yunus, interesting, as we go through all the metrics and all the things that Israel has done that no military has done in history,
00:55:50.360 I went in with the division commander who talked to me about, basically, the political atmosphere was that you had to bring the civilian casualties to zero.
00:56:00.960 That's literally what the statements were, which would mean the war needs to stop.
00:56:04.200 So you had a division in Gaza, in Khan Yunus, which is another Hamas strong point, doing operations with the overwhelming backdrop of you can't have a civilian casualty.
00:56:17.840 So they did an example of how they prevented that, basically the migration of Hamas, although it's still inaccurate to say that that migration is not showing Israel is successful.
00:56:29.680 Because dismantling the military means taking away its military capability.
00:56:35.220 So Hamas wasn't moving with its 20,000 rockets.
00:56:38.740 Right.
00:56:39.360 It wasn't moving with its deep buried military weapons production plants.
00:56:43.720 Yeah, okay.
00:56:44.500 In all its weapons supplies.
00:56:45.920 So you still got to get in there and clear that and discover it.
00:56:49.340 And this is why—
00:56:49.760 So at least they're disarmed.
00:56:51.060 That's right.
00:56:51.320 Even if they're there.
00:56:52.180 Yeah.
00:56:52.540 There's still going to be tens of thousands of radicalized people.
00:56:56.580 Okay.
00:56:56.640 Who didn't go—
00:56:59.680 Along with the evacuation on the Palestinian side, because they had the option.
00:57:03.720 So now the simple-minded consequence of what you said, my understanding of that would be that, well, Israel gave the civilian population ample time to clear out.
00:57:14.980 And many people did.
00:57:16.620 Yep.
00:57:16.760 Okay.
00:57:17.440 So now if Israel goes into Hamas territory, into the Gaza, and there are civilians there that are being killed,
00:57:26.980 like those are people who didn't leave or couldn't leave.
00:57:31.420 Okay, so—
00:57:32.220 Or were forced not to leave.
00:57:35.760 Okay.
00:57:35.940 Hamas also didn't allow their own population to leave.
00:57:39.220 How much of their own population?
00:57:41.200 It's hard to measure.
00:57:42.380 Any approximation?
00:57:43.200 I mean, there were 850,000 that did evacuate, so it leaves, you know, 250,000—or 150,000 still there.
00:57:51.240 Okay.
00:57:51.740 Okay.
00:57:52.280 150,000 still there.
00:57:53.660 10 percent still there.
00:57:54.620 Right.
00:57:54.980 But this is, again, because I've studied every urban battle that's ever happened.
00:57:59.120 There's always about 10 percent that stay.
00:58:01.900 Aha.
00:58:02.460 Okay.
00:58:02.680 So that's not historically abnormal.
00:58:05.400 But it is abnormal for Hamas to set up checkpoints—
00:58:09.360 To not let people go.
00:58:10.580 To not let people go.
00:58:11.360 To shoot at people trying to leave.
00:58:13.620 To fire from the humanitarian safe route.
00:58:17.620 So this is standard, too.
00:58:18.840 Yeah.
00:58:19.040 To evacuate the cities, create the road that you want them to use.
00:58:23.060 Hamas would put rockets next to that so they could use media to say Israel is striking the zones that they told people to leave.
00:58:31.820 That's a fact.
00:58:32.500 That's how.
00:58:33.240 Right.
00:58:34.140 Right.
00:58:35.040 I see.
00:58:35.980 Okay.
00:58:36.300 So there's 150,000 people left.
00:58:38.440 Okay.
00:58:38.680 So then Israel moves in.
00:58:40.340 Yep.
00:58:40.440 Okay.
00:58:40.980 So what do they—how do you move in?
00:58:44.760 What does that look like?
00:58:46.780 Building by building, fighting?
00:58:48.260 Like, what does that look like?
00:58:49.620 What's that like for the people who are on the ground?
00:58:51.600 Yeah.
00:58:51.840 It starts with, like any military would, striking known military locations.
00:58:56.100 Okay.
00:58:56.440 So that's airstrikes fundamentally?
00:58:58.060 Airstrikes.
00:58:58.200 Okay.
00:58:58.600 Okay.
00:58:58.780 That's, like, that's standard military operation to include in urban warfare.
00:59:02.480 If you know there's an enemy bunker or an enemy headquarters or an enemy formation, you would always want to strike them as far away as you can, especially if you've done everything to move civilians out of harm as well as possible.
00:59:14.660 Right, right, right.
00:59:15.140 This is the idea of, like, the 2,000-pound bomb you can't use in an urban area, which they're actually saying it doesn't matter if there's zero civilians there, you can't use that bomb.
00:59:22.140 Oh, right.
00:59:22.760 Okay.
00:59:23.060 Well, that's obviously a propaganda maneuver.
00:59:25.040 So, okay, so one advantage of clearing the civilians out then would be that there would be, in principle, fewer restrictions on your ability to use air power.
00:59:34.000 So why doesn't, why don't the Hamas forces just move everything that they have into the tunnels?
00:59:39.800 I imagine they did that to some degree.
00:59:41.440 This is why they have 400 miles of tunnels.
00:59:42.760 Right, right.
00:59:43.540 So why have anything available to be bombed?
00:59:46.280 So this is what I, when I went there in December and interviewed brigade commanders that were fighting there, they would have a two-week battle on a single block.
00:59:53.240 Yeah.
00:59:53.600 Because Hamas wasn't in the building.
00:59:55.600 They were underneath, running in a, in 400 miles in a stretch of all, there are layers and webs of tunnels underneath at varying depths.
01:00:07.060 It was so hard to imagine.
01:00:09.140 I've never studied that.
01:00:10.940 We call it the three-dimensional war, but to know, so this is a funny thing about me going into Kahn Yunus.
01:00:17.680 I was in Kahn Yunus, a lot less activity, but I was taken to a location where they were searching for a tunnel.
01:00:23.740 And later that they found that tunnel.
01:00:26.720 I was standing on top of an uncleared Hamas tunnel on the surface.
01:00:30.960 And that's what the IDF faced every moment, every step they took into Gaza.
01:00:35.360 And then the houses were, you know, basically rigged to blow.
01:00:39.500 There were absolutely Hamas left behind.
01:00:41.940 And this is why northern Gaza was chosen first.
01:00:44.080 It was the military strong point of Hamas, of its battalions with assigned geographic areas to hold with a vast tunnel network of caches all throughout the urban terrain.
01:00:54.700 Same thing that you would teach somebody to do.
01:00:56.980 Okay, so this whole tunnel network, it was produced over what period of time?
01:01:01.780 At least 15 years.
01:01:02.780 15 years.
01:01:03.580 But there were some present already while the IDF were there, before they gave up the Gaza and gave it to the Palestinian people.
01:01:10.580 So it was obviously prepared under the assumption that Israel would eventually move in.
01:01:17.640 Yes.
01:01:18.100 Okay.
01:01:18.420 But it wasn't for the purpose, again, their defensive tactics.
01:01:22.760 So they spent 15 years, which is unique in urban warfare, to prepare their terrain for solely military defense.
01:01:30.900 But not to, because defenders usually lose.
01:01:34.220 All they had to do was hold the IDF long enough for the international community in the United States.
01:01:39.520 To turn.
01:01:40.320 To turn them on.
01:01:40.900 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
01:01:42.260 Okay, okay.
01:01:43.000 So that dictated the tactics.
01:01:44.120 And they knew that.
01:01:44.340 Absolutely.
01:01:45.100 It's been the strategy.
01:01:45.860 The tunnels, I wrote this article, you know, war is a contest of politics, but I wrote the article in, like, November.
01:01:52.800 Like, this is the first war I've studied where the underground is more important than the surface.
01:01:57.240 Right, right.
01:01:58.340 Because the Hamas are in the tunnels.
01:02:00.940 The hostages are in the tunnels.
01:02:02.540 The tunnels are the key methodology to achieve the strategy.
01:02:06.420 Sure, sure, sure.
01:02:07.780 How effective has Israel's invasion of Gaza been, then, if the Hamas terrorists can just retreat to the tunnels?
01:02:18.720 And have all the tunnels been identified, or does anyone even know that?
01:02:23.260 Yeah.
01:02:23.780 Well, since they knew, since the, and I study underground warfare as well.
01:02:27.660 I was doing underground warfare conferences in Israel in 2018, in Hezbollah tunnels, in Hamas tunnels.
01:02:33.720 No, they don't, they don't even know how many tunnels there were.
01:02:35.940 Yeah, right.
01:02:36.600 Now the estimate went from 300 miles to 400 miles, but they found tunnels that they couldn't have imagined.
01:02:41.820 Just the size of them, the depth of them.
01:02:44.380 How effective have they been at finding and destroying?
01:02:47.420 Yeah.
01:02:47.700 Right.
01:02:47.820 Is it possible to destroy them all?
01:02:49.940 Right.
01:02:51.200 But if they're so dug underneath every structure in Gaza, they're not going to destroy them all.
01:02:58.020 They've had to make critical decisions on which ones to destroy.
01:03:01.320 And there's not enough explosive in the world to destroy.
01:03:03.660 So they've made really tough decisions on which ones they find to destroy and how to destroy.
01:03:10.180 Mainly, because they tried this flooding thing for a little while.
01:03:12.680 Yeah.
01:03:13.420 Which, it didn't work.
01:03:15.000 I thought it was a really innovative attempt.
01:03:16.920 It actually worked for Egypt along the Egypt-Gaza border to flood the tunnels because they were made of sand and it kind of collapsed out.
01:03:22.580 Oh, yeah.
01:03:22.960 But these are billions of dollars, Jordan, used that would have gone to the Palestinian people.
01:03:28.140 Right.
01:03:28.640 Billions of dollars to use to build these.
01:03:30.520 And that's aid money?
01:03:31.640 Yeah.
01:03:32.020 Well, and money that they take from, you know, they basically, the market that they drive up the prices and Hamas takes that money.
01:03:40.640 So both direct aid money given to Hamas, but also Hamas's subjugation of its population into poverty involves the population having to pay Hamas.
01:03:49.160 What about funding from places like Iran, the direct funding for the construction of the tunnels?
01:03:54.260 Is that also part of the strategy?
01:03:57.040 Absolutely.
01:03:57.680 But Iran has helped in many ways.
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01:04:18.340 But again, what...
01:04:19.740 And what do you make of the knowledge of the international community, let's say the UN, for example, with regard to the presence of these tunnels?
01:04:27.620 I mean, how much of the fact that these tunnels existed has come...
01:04:31.060 Who has it come as a surprise to and who knew?
01:04:34.600 So this is the idea of who is the United Nations?
01:04:37.680 Yeah, there's a good question.
01:04:39.600 Or who is UNRWA, the United Nations organization in the Palestinian areas, right?
01:04:46.200 So in Gaza, the UN voice in Gaza is UNRWA.
01:04:50.620 So we're rational people that have facts and can make deductions off facts.
01:04:58.640 If there are Hamas data centers underneath UNRWA headquarters, or if there's Hamas tunnels underneath UNRWA facilities, schools, mosque, hospitals, but UNRWA, who has been there for 15 years, says that we did not know about that.
01:05:17.080 To me, that doesn't make logical sense.
01:05:19.320 Well, it's either a confession of incompetence or malevolence.
01:05:23.220 It's one of the two.
01:05:24.700 Because how could you not know?
01:05:27.440 It's just a lie.
01:05:28.560 Of course, you knew.
01:05:30.620 This gets the idea of where do we get information from Gaza.
01:05:32.840 Yeah.
01:05:33.540 So Hamas is the ruling power, has been the ruling power for 15 years.
01:05:37.780 And you can't work in Gaza, much like the Ba'ath regime in Iraq, unless you're a member of Hamas.
01:05:42.060 And you could not be like a radicalized, martyr, fundamentalist Hamas.
01:05:48.060 But you can bet your dollar you can't say anything without the threat to your life if you don't even believe in the ideology.
01:05:55.140 This gets to our number of civilian casualties, like the Gaza Health Ministry, which is the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.
01:06:01.420 And that we will believe their word without even questioning to where we have the national leaders of the world parroting the number, which I tell you as a scholar of this, there is no number.
01:06:13.440 There's no way to know how many civilians are dying on a daily basis down to the single digit, period.
01:06:18.700 Or that nobody will acknowledge that the Gaza Health Ministry provides a number to the world that, according to them, includes every death that happens in Gaza, no matter the cause.
01:06:28.920 Right, right, right.
01:06:29.920 So it doesn't matter if it was a Hamas rocket that landed on a house, since 20% of the 13,000 rockets Hamas has fired have landed in Gaza.
01:06:38.740 It doesn't matter if that death was caused by Hamas.
01:06:40.820 And the Hamas number also includes any reported missing person, whether it's a social media post or a family member saying, I don't know where this person is.
01:06:50.940 That goes on Hamas's list of dead personnel.
01:06:54.300 But the world just runs with 37,000 Palestinian.
01:06:58.700 Right, and I've seen that number radically adjusted multiple times, which is an indication of its, well, of its comparative reliability.
01:07:06.220 But this gets to the college kids that, like, just know what the number is.
01:07:12.600 The number is every death that's happened in Gaza, no matter their cause.
01:07:15.780 You know, I've had some friends who've been looking at the social media warfare end of this, who are trying to understand what information the college kids who are protesting are getting and why they believe it.
01:07:28.980 And TikTok, in particular, is flooded with images that suggest that the IDF are barbarians beyond belief and that the casualty rates are extremely high.
01:07:38.580 And once you click on one of those, then that's all you get in your feed.
01:07:42.060 And that seems to be particularly effective.
01:07:44.940 The use of imagery of injured children, for example, seems to be particularly effective for women.
01:07:50.080 And, of course, the majority of the protesters on the Ivy League campuses are women.
01:07:54.420 And so they're the targets of this particular PSYOP.
01:07:56.720 And so that's another—
01:07:59.120 It's a dream for Russia to have this access to the youth's minds.
01:08:04.860 Yeah, absolutely.
01:08:05.900 It's Russia, China, and Iran.
01:08:08.100 It's a dream that they have this access—an algorithm that feeds it.
01:08:11.320 You don't have to do the work.
01:08:12.420 The algorithm feeds it.
01:08:14.100 There's actually a battle in my work, in urban warfare history, where the United States was defeated because of this.
01:08:19.960 The first battle of Fallujah—I don't know if you remember that—
01:08:22.000 But there were four American contractors that were killed in the city of Fallujah in April of 2004.
01:08:28.600 The U.S. president ordered—because they dismembered American citizens—burned them all and hung them from the bridge.
01:08:37.460 Oh, yes.
01:08:38.100 Yeah.
01:08:38.240 The U.S. president ordered the Marines to go in and get those responsible for that action.
01:08:44.520 So the Marine Corps, over their objections, launched an operation.
01:08:48.920 Al Jazeera was sitting in the hospital airing photos of children that had been casualties of the operations and trumping up numbers of civilian casualties, unverifiable.
01:09:00.460 And six days into the battle, the Iraqi governing council, the U.S. allies all threatened to disband if the United States didn't stop its battle.
01:09:09.060 That was basically an echo to what we have today, where you can defeat a superior power easily through the use of information warfare, the pictures of children.
01:09:21.340 Like, why did those resonate?
01:09:22.600 I know that's your field of study.
01:09:23.840 Like, that resonates very strongly, to include me.
01:09:26.460 Yeah, of course.
01:09:27.280 I have children.
01:09:28.260 I don't want to see any children.
01:09:29.180 I've seen children—and this, again, goes back to the—even these kids won't acknowledge what Hamas is.
01:09:36.440 Well, children are the ultimate victims, right?
01:09:38.680 The ultimate innocent victims.
01:09:40.180 And so if you're playing a victim-victimizer ideological game, then obviously pictures of hurt children are incredibly effective weapons in that regard.
01:09:49.780 And of course, if there is a war, there's going to be hurt children.
01:09:52.420 So it's a strategy that's very difficult to counter.
01:09:56.060 That's for sure.
01:09:56.960 But there's an ideology that the IDF would do it purposely.
01:09:59.740 When—I can show you the video of October 7th where Hamas psychopaths, like Jeffrey Dahmers, were standing over children making a death moan and laughing over top of them.
01:10:13.340 Yeah.
01:10:13.520 So I've been in war and seen children injured.
01:10:16.520 And every individual, doesn't matter who he was, is dying in their heart to help that child.
01:10:21.180 Right.
01:10:22.180 So the idea that the IDF would purposely harm a child isn't backed up by evidence.
01:10:27.080 Mm-hmm.
01:10:27.300 Now, do civilians get caught in between two warring factions?
01:10:31.920 Yes.
01:10:32.380 But despite, going back to our statement, that the IDF have done everything anybody's ever thought of and created ways that nobody's ever thought of.
01:10:39.360 I mean, they have drones with speakers, going back to drones, that go into enemy health territory and announce to the civilian, please leave.
01:10:46.060 This is a combat area.
01:10:47.540 They've used technologies to track every cell phone in an area now, whether it's on or off, to know if there's civilians there.
01:10:54.200 And they won't even allow the military into that area until a certain population gets out.
01:11:00.340 Okay.
01:11:00.960 So, all right.
01:11:02.320 So, are the Israelis meeting with any success in their military ventures?
01:11:08.000 Are they winning the battle against Hamas, all things considered, do you think?
01:11:14.020 Absolutely.
01:11:14.700 Do you think so?
01:11:15.420 Okay.
01:11:15.700 So, what's the evidence for that?
01:11:17.360 Yeah.
01:11:17.540 The evidence is, if you can go by hostages, so half the hostages are home.
01:11:21.660 Yeah.
01:11:21.980 Okay.
01:11:22.460 Right?
01:11:22.720 There's 124 left in hostage or left in Hamas hands, basically, whether it's a dead body or a living person.
01:11:28.800 It's really hard to tell.
01:11:29.520 How many of them were freed alive?
01:11:31.540 Do you know?
01:11:31.880 I don't know what the exact number was, but most of them were freed during that temporary ceasefire, whereas over 100 were released by Hamas.
01:11:39.940 Okay.
01:11:40.300 Okay.
01:11:40.860 At great military disadvantage to Israel to do that exchange.
01:11:45.700 Mm-hmm.
01:11:45.980 And most people don't recognize that, like the fact that during that ceasefire, Hamas forced civilians to reoccupy places like Khan Yunus.
01:11:55.420 They increased the population of a city by 300% during that ceasefire so that their human sacrifice strategy would work better.
01:12:03.520 That kind of escaped the national media.
01:12:05.800 Yeah.
01:12:06.220 Surprise, surprise.
01:12:07.340 Yeah.
01:12:07.940 So, they're hostages.
01:12:10.460 Hamas as—
01:12:11.140 How do you—what do you make of the fact that something like that, for example, escaped the national media?
01:12:16.540 Like, how is that possible, even?
01:12:19.040 I mean, it's—I understand some of the foundations for much of the talking points, but most of the world doesn't.
01:12:26.840 Like, they don't know what that number means.
01:12:29.000 They don't know what the details are to that number.
01:12:30.980 They don't question it.
01:12:31.860 Or when you attack a 2,000-pound bomb, they don't know who are the groups.
01:12:35.260 So, part of it's just lack of depth of inquiry, let's say.
01:12:38.460 Or there's a global deficiency of an expertise in this type of warfare.
01:12:45.200 Yes.
01:12:45.600 Even within—
01:12:46.060 You said even among the military.
01:12:47.560 Yeah.
01:12:48.120 Right, right.
01:12:48.780 So, you'd expect that in spades among what passes for journalists these days.
01:12:53.140 Right.
01:12:53.860 Where they—of course, it's all bad.
01:12:55.240 Like, war is—where is hell?
01:12:58.100 Mm-hmm.
01:12:58.380 War is killing.
01:12:59.980 Right.
01:13:00.460 Like, we've done—we've agreed that we're going to do—not do certain things.
01:13:04.340 And Israel is following every measurement that we've ever had.
01:13:09.720 Back to their successes of their objective to remove Hamas from power.
01:13:13.740 Yeah.
01:13:14.180 Yeah.
01:13:14.340 And dismantle its military.
01:13:16.420 Yeah.
01:13:17.100 From a straight analytical perspective, they've dismantled Hamas's military to include areas
01:13:23.900 it controls physically.
01:13:26.140 Don't get me into the ideology part.
01:13:28.140 Yeah.
01:13:28.360 But remove the rockets.
01:13:30.360 So, of—there were 4,000 rockets fired on October 7th.
01:13:33.320 More than it had been fired during the entire Second Lebanon War on day one.
01:13:37.500 There have been 13,000 since.
01:13:40.180 Now, there are a lot less.
01:13:42.220 Those rocket supplies have been taken away.
01:13:44.220 Now, they're still—they're still shooting them because they still think they're going
01:13:47.520 to win from Rafa and from right next to the humanitarian zone.
01:13:51.280 But from the actual measurement of what a military is, it's fighters, it's supplies, it's production
01:13:57.220 capabilities, it's tunnels.
01:13:59.120 Israel has been very successful in clearing dense urban terrain very slow, very methodically,
01:14:05.700 despite the constraints of the world.
01:14:08.580 Right.
01:14:08.860 You have—at one point, they had one brigade in Gaza because the world said, you've got
01:14:13.840 to do it a different way.
01:14:15.420 They had one brigade in Gaza.
01:14:18.000 That was—now they wanted to finish this quickly.
01:14:21.120 Yeah.
01:14:21.460 In Rafa, with two divisions in the world, said—well, the United States, according to reports,
01:14:25.920 said, you can't do that.
01:14:27.220 Use one division.
01:14:29.060 But they have been very successful on reducing those military supplies.
01:14:33.200 Now, I can't—who's winning?
01:14:35.080 Are they achieving metrics along that goal to achieve all three of their objectives,
01:14:40.260 to include secure the borders?
01:14:41.800 Because they have also put in many—nobody talks about them—large construction projects,
01:14:47.340 new roads to create a different security environment, a buffer zone, new roads going into Gaza to include
01:14:53.960 the new humanitarian entry points and roads into Gaza nobody talks about.
01:14:59.220 They're being very successful in doing these military measures.
01:15:03.060 But the—it won't matter.
01:15:05.900 None of this will matter.
01:15:06.800 If Hamas, that was October 6th, the leadership, just that core leadership—
01:15:11.000 Yeah.
01:15:11.520 —survives the war, it doesn't matter whatever metric.
01:15:14.940 They—
01:15:15.360 So where are the Hamas leadership located physically?
01:15:20.580 Where are they?
01:15:21.140 Southern Gaza.
01:15:22.560 Okay.
01:15:23.120 And how successful has—
01:15:24.240 We're in Gaza, right?
01:15:25.220 Because it goes back to the cognitive.
01:15:26.360 If—maybe some of them have escaped.
01:15:30.320 But like going back to even the good guys, like Zelensky, if he would have left, that is less of a victory than if you stay.
01:15:40.020 So I believe that that leadership is still in Gaza.
01:15:43.200 Okay.
01:15:43.620 And do you have any sense of what proportion of the Gaza hierarchical leadership is still intact?
01:15:50.120 I think that was the senior leadership.
01:15:52.360 They've gotten one of the senior, senior leadership.
01:15:54.940 Yeah.
01:15:55.040 But this goes back to like when you hear—
01:15:57.240 How many of those people in leadership positions are crucial?
01:16:02.480 Five or six.
01:16:03.680 Okay.
01:16:04.160 Okay.
01:16:04.500 So it's a very—it's a handful of people.
01:16:06.500 I mean, if Yaya Senwar survives this war, he's achieved victory.
01:16:09.500 They'll make statues of him.
01:16:10.440 Mm-hmm.
01:16:11.900 He will be the great terrorist that weakened Israel on the global international stage and struck at United States' credibility.
01:16:21.020 Iran will make statues of Yaya Senwar if he survives this war.
01:16:26.020 Uh-huh.
01:16:26.480 He will be the great victor of this war.
01:16:28.860 And let alone if October 7th becomes Palestinian Independence Day.
01:16:33.900 Right.
01:16:34.560 If the world says, we don't care, everybody agrees Palestine is a state.
01:16:39.360 Right, right.
01:16:40.140 How many countries—there's European countries that have already accepted it as a state, eh?
01:16:45.220 At least—
01:16:45.640 Spain, Norway.
01:16:47.860 I don't remember all the countries, but—
01:16:49.580 Yeah.
01:16:50.100 It would be—if you—like it's almost anti-intellectual.
01:16:53.500 How do you not understand that if October 7th leads to a creation of something, despite all the challenges, it would lead to greater violence for all—
01:17:03.780 No logic gets in the way of virtue signaling ever, right?
01:17:06.760 There's no hypocrisy like moral hypocrisy.
01:17:09.120 Yeah.
01:17:09.720 Yeah.
01:17:09.860 This is where—I can't tell you who's going to win this war.
01:17:12.320 I can't.
01:17:13.240 Okay.
01:17:13.460 If Israel is stopped because of real pressure, because like the weapon shipments that have been threatened to be withheld.
01:17:21.540 Yeah.
01:17:21.980 Yeah.
01:17:22.380 That has nothing to do with the operations in Gaza.
01:17:24.800 That has to do with 100,000 Hezbollah attacking in the north.
01:17:28.880 Northern Israel is currently under fire, as we're speaking.
01:17:32.480 Yeah.
01:17:32.720 Because Hezbollah has been attacking, and the real threat is that you won't have the supplies to push them back.
01:17:39.840 Yeah.
01:17:39.960 Because southern Lebanon is called—
01:17:41.540 How serious is the situation in northern Israel with regards to Hezbollah right now?
01:17:46.060 It's an existential threat.
01:17:47.080 But you don't get more serious than that.
01:17:50.080 There are 80,000 Israelis who can't go home for the last eight months at a huge financial cost to the nation of Israel, but they're literally now trying to burn it all down.
01:17:59.000 Yeah.
01:17:59.360 Yeah.
01:17:59.520 But it's an existential threat, which I think people just discount.
01:18:03.420 Like, yeah, it's a threat.
01:18:04.680 And you think that they'll just stop if Israel stops in Gaza?
01:18:09.760 You think they—
01:18:10.180 Never want to underestimate the depth of anti-Semitism.
01:18:13.640 Sure.
01:18:14.620 Right.
01:18:14.860 You have to believe, since none of this makes logic, that there's something else behind this, all of this.
01:18:22.900 Insane jealousy of the successful minority, of the perennially successful minority.
01:18:27.100 And then underneath that, what would you say?
01:18:29.420 Why are the Jews the canary in the coal mine?
01:18:32.080 Because they're the perennially successful minority.
01:18:35.280 Okay.
01:18:35.860 The successful in any enterprise are always a minority.
01:18:40.340 So when a culture goes after the Jews, it's one step away from going after the successful themselves.
01:18:48.280 And when a culture goes after the successful themselves, then it's—
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01:19:08.340 Doomed.
01:19:09.400 Right.
01:19:10.020 And so, and then you might say, well, why would people go after the successful?
01:19:13.220 It's like, well, that's a story as old as time.
01:19:15.700 That's the story of Cain.
01:19:17.480 Right.
01:19:17.740 The first two human beings in the biblical account are Cain and Abel.
01:19:22.020 And Cain is murderously resentful and bitter of success.
01:19:26.340 Right.
01:19:26.900 And that makes him murderous.
01:19:29.620 It makes him a rebel against God.
01:19:31.600 It makes his descendants genocidal.
01:19:34.160 Yeah.
01:19:34.400 What do you think?
01:19:34.800 Well, that's exactly.
01:19:36.460 Nothing has changed.
01:19:38.300 No.
01:19:38.760 This is why the reasons people go to war hasn't changed since ancient times.
01:19:42.480 And why do you—of the many reasons—
01:19:44.180 Well, we also think that people go to war to win.
01:19:47.220 True.
01:19:47.640 Right.
01:19:48.300 Yeah.
01:19:48.680 No, no.
01:19:49.300 The people who are really serious about going to war are perfectly happy to lose.
01:19:53.940 So, as long as the loss comes at sufficient cost.
01:19:58.520 So, actually dealing with an enemy whose desire is to win, that's a pretty easy battle.
01:20:05.500 It's the people whose desire is to burn everything to ground and dance in the ashes.
01:20:10.080 Those are the people that are very, very difficult to defeat.
01:20:13.720 And there's—that spirit is alive in those campus protests, for sure.
01:20:19.460 The protests of the radicals.
01:20:21.000 They would burn everything to the ground.
01:20:23.260 This is why this is not—this idea that this is some type of an Israel-Palestine issue.
01:20:28.980 That it's some type of an Israel-Arab world issue.
01:20:33.000 The Arab world has addressed terrorism successfully in many parts of the Arab world.
01:20:38.880 Their way.
01:20:39.520 Mm-hmm.
01:20:41.260 You're actually perpetuating the violence, believing that you could just do something and it would all stop.
01:20:50.160 Mm-hmm.
01:20:50.640 That's not the reality of truth.
01:20:53.340 And I agree with you.
01:20:54.520 I mean, the one factor that college kids don't want to acknowledge is that there are two million Arab Israelis living side-by-side in Israel today.
01:21:01.680 Yeah, right.
01:21:02.800 Yes.
01:21:03.360 That's like, oh, they don't care.
01:21:04.360 And they're not trying to emigrate.
01:21:07.900 No.
01:21:08.400 Right.
01:21:09.180 Right.
01:21:09.580 Because things are as good for them as they would—better for them than they would be anywhere else in the Arab world, with the possible exception of the UAE?
01:21:20.540 Maybe.
01:21:21.440 Maybe.
01:21:21.880 I mean, the Houthis in Saudi Arabia, they're—I mean, it's not every—it's not all good, of course.
01:21:29.660 But I think this goes back to your original, the opening comments about the normalization with Israel-era nations going back to Saudi Arabia.
01:21:37.120 You're right.
01:21:37.780 Like, I'm not trying to win anything.
01:21:39.840 I'm preventing actual prosperity.
01:21:42.940 Oh, definitely.
01:21:43.360 I want to burn it down.
01:21:44.140 Oh, 100%.
01:21:46.280 100%.
01:21:47.600 Yeah.
01:21:48.780 Well, everything around the Abraham Accords, once the Democrats came into power, irritated me to death.
01:21:55.460 Because I knew—I knew enough about the situation in the Middle East at that point to know that the Saudis would have signed the Abraham Accords.
01:22:05.140 Right.
01:22:05.380 And that, of course, that was the last thing Iran wanted.
01:22:08.120 Like, seriously, the last thing Iran wanted.
01:22:10.360 And we were that close to having that happen.
01:22:13.360 And then it got scuttled.
01:22:14.960 And part of the reason for that was that the Democrats were absolutely 100% unwilling to do anything that would give the Trump administration credit for anything positive.
01:22:23.640 And I think that's unforgivable.
01:22:25.620 Like, absolutely unforgivable.
01:22:27.380 But on the positive side, so far the Abraham Accords have held.
01:22:32.180 I know that the Signees have pulled back and are just sort of waiting in the wings and not trumpeting the fact that they've signed a peace deal with Israel.
01:22:40.100 But it's very, very positive that the Accords have still been maintained intact.
01:22:45.560 So in that way, Iran hasn't obtained the victory that they'd hoped for.
01:22:49.780 Now, you just said that you don't know who's—fundamentally, if Israel can win this war.
01:22:56.160 So do you want to—what do you think is going to happen?
01:22:58.320 Like, what's your—
01:22:59.100 I absolutely know they can't.
01:23:01.540 Yeah.
01:23:02.040 I don't know if they will.
01:23:03.460 Yeah, yeah.
01:23:03.900 I can understand that those are very different.
01:23:05.520 I know they could have a long time ago.
01:23:07.860 Right.
01:23:09.000 Yeah, right.
01:23:09.960 They could have—
01:23:10.760 But what's—so my sense of—
01:23:12.440 This is where the world owns—the United States owns much of the suffering that's happened in Gaza.
01:23:18.600 Okay, elaborate on that.
01:23:20.100 By prolonging the war.
01:23:21.560 Yeah, right.
01:23:22.260 By saying you have to find another way.
01:23:24.160 Yeah.
01:23:24.320 In war, there's no history of you, but find a different way.
01:23:27.640 The world has—
01:23:28.700 Find a different, unspecified way that's never been tried before under impossible circumstances.
01:23:33.680 Right.
01:23:33.940 Or misapply a paradigm that isn't war, like counterinsurgency.
01:23:38.080 Just do raids and strategic strikes, and in a few years, you'll get your hostage back.
01:23:42.240 Right.
01:23:43.060 Yeah, right.
01:23:44.900 It's maddening, but the world owns some of their suffering.
01:23:47.940 Yes, Egypt owns a lot of it, but the world owns a lot when they constrained Israel and told Israel,
01:23:53.540 you can't continue.
01:23:54.840 Literally, like, you cannot finish Hamas in southern Gaza.
01:23:58.700 In Rafa.
01:23:59.280 You can't do it.
01:24:00.300 What do you mean I can't?
01:24:01.380 We can't—they own some of that, so absolutely.
01:24:04.300 But I can't tell you, because war is politics, and Israel is reliant on allies.
01:24:10.440 Yeah.
01:24:10.960 For its survival, for the survival of the 10 million Israelis, it cannot do it alone.
01:24:16.020 Yeah.
01:24:16.200 So they could be forced, even though it puts Israel under an existential threat going forward,
01:24:23.720 it could be forced to stop in Gaza and told that—
01:24:27.540 No, eventually, yeah.
01:24:28.660 Yeah, right.
01:24:29.440 Eventually, you'll get your hostage back.
01:24:31.400 Eventually, we'll figure out a way to remove Hamas from power, try this other—
01:24:35.560 Yeah.
01:24:35.980 Force a government on them, things like that.
01:24:38.220 Yeah.
01:24:38.460 This is why you can't—you don't know who's—and that will determine whether everything—everybody
01:24:45.760 is already—I just read a foreign affairs piece saying Israel's already had a strategic
01:24:49.240 failure.
01:24:50.060 What are you talking about a strategic failure?
01:24:51.900 The war's not over.
01:24:53.800 Do they mean strategic failure on the public relations side?
01:24:57.000 No, they mean this idea—yes, on this ideology, though, that you're created more—
01:25:02.180 Oh, I see, I see.
01:25:03.460 This is the metrics of how many people in the Palestinian community support Hamas, who
01:25:08.560 approved of the October 7th attack, who think it was a good thing, and still have increased
01:25:12.800 the support of Hamas.
01:25:14.200 Like, those are metrics—I got it.
01:25:15.940 That has nothing to do with the achievement of those things that we've been talking about
01:25:18.800 in this war.
01:25:19.860 Removing Hamas from power.
01:25:20.460 Now, that's an important thing to get conceptually distinct.
01:25:22.960 Yes.
01:25:23.220 Right, right.
01:25:24.740 So, your proposition is the military objectives that would be relevant and important can be
01:25:29.420 achieved, even if the public relations battle within the Palestinian population isn't going
01:25:35.360 in the direction that you'd hope it would.
01:25:37.500 Correct.
01:25:37.640 Because you're—and you use Japan, say, and Germany as an energy—
01:25:42.020 Or even an uninformed international global perception of the way it's going.
01:25:46.360 Right.
01:25:46.640 Well, the thing is, is that most of any given population will go along with the norms that
01:25:52.500 are currently in place.
01:25:53.800 We saw that during the pandemic, for example.
01:25:56.740 So, and, you know, there's good and bad in that.
01:26:01.320 The bad is, is that if the bad actors get the upper hand, a very large number of people
01:26:05.860 will go along with them.
01:26:06.800 But the good is that if the good actors get the upper hand, then many of the people who
01:26:12.100 went along with the bad actors will shift position.
01:26:15.100 Right.
01:26:16.060 Right.
01:26:16.360 Okay.
01:26:16.860 Well, that's a very useful thing to understand conceptually.
01:26:20.900 So, strategic advice.
01:26:25.720 Like, I'm so glad that I'm not in a position of having to make the kinds of decisions that
01:26:31.040 the Israeli leadership have to make now.
01:26:34.540 I mean, God, that must be awful in 15 different dimensions.
01:26:38.280 But you're a military strategist, so what's the best way forward for Israel at, I mean,
01:26:45.620 can you see a best way forward for Israel?
01:26:48.640 And if so, what might it be?
01:26:52.340 I do, although I don't have access to all the information, although I've interviewed many
01:26:56.780 of the leadership, it is threading the head of the needle.
01:26:59.880 Because I am a military strategist, but I also then understand it's not just about military
01:27:06.060 strategy.
01:27:06.560 It's about the politics of war.
01:27:09.160 This is, when I was asked, how long would this war take?
01:27:11.960 Yeah.
01:27:12.140 I was always asked that in October, November.
01:27:13.880 Yeah, well, no one ever can make that prediction.
01:27:15.780 Yeah, but it's irrelevant.
01:27:16.680 How long does Israel have before Israel's, the will to allow Israel to defend itself runs
01:27:22.840 out?
01:27:23.020 Right.
01:27:23.400 Which is historic.
01:27:24.020 Right, right, right.
01:27:24.500 Of course.
01:27:24.980 Of course.
01:27:25.420 Yes.
01:27:25.600 That's definitely the question.
01:27:26.760 My, with no affiliations, military strategic recommendation was don't stop.
01:27:32.980 Uh-huh.
01:27:33.400 If you stop, you'll see October 7th in the future.
01:27:36.980 Well, of course.
01:27:38.180 And that seems starkly self-evident to me.
01:27:41.040 Well, why wouldn't you?
01:27:42.620 Right.
01:27:42.800 Because all it would have proved was that it was successful.
01:27:45.480 Yeah.
01:27:45.700 Right?
01:27:45.960 Because Israel, its public relationships are seriously damaged on the international front.
01:27:51.800 Hamas basically remains intact.
01:27:53.540 But Iran doesn't give a damn that it was at the cost of Gaza.
01:27:57.080 That's irrelevant.
01:27:58.120 Nope.
01:27:58.820 So.
01:27:59.620 It's a foreign diplomacy insanity.
01:28:02.440 Just trying the same thing over and over again.
01:28:04.260 Yeah, right.
01:28:04.760 Like getting out of Gaza, sending Gaza aid money, economic, humanitarian, everything,
01:28:12.680 hoping that they would give up their stated grand strategy.
01:28:16.820 Right, right.
01:28:17.180 Even though they've stated it.
01:28:18.760 Yeah, and they continue to say it.
01:28:20.140 Yeah, right.
01:28:20.720 To include after October 7th.
01:28:22.100 October 7th was just a warm-up.
01:28:23.700 It's very difficult for Western liberals to believe that people who write down their evil
01:28:30.560 intent actually mean it.
01:28:33.260 I get this.
01:28:34.500 You know, I work and I do a lot on the social media world where people want to break apart
01:28:39.220 your argument.
01:28:39.940 So on that, they'll say, they wrote that down before.
01:28:42.140 That's not what they want today.
01:28:43.740 Yeah, right.
01:28:44.300 Okay, what about the news conferences they're doing today where they say they're going to
01:28:47.740 keep doing October 7th over and over again.
01:28:50.300 And I don't care how many, I need my population.
01:28:52.920 Like that isn't stuff they said before.
01:28:54.220 That's what they've said since October 7th.
01:28:56.400 Yeah, well, part of it too is that naive liberal types really lack imagination for evil.
01:29:03.040 Yes.
01:29:03.440 And that's a big problem because one of the things that's a consequence of that, for example,
01:29:07.620 is like there's a proclivity for naively compassionate people to view even violent criminals as victims.
01:29:14.840 And the reason for that is, imagine that you're trying to understand the motive for a violent crime.
01:29:20.320 Well, you could understand that there are conditions under which that might be intensely enjoyable as a perpetrator.
01:29:28.320 But you have to go very, very dark places in order to understand that.
01:29:31.800 And so instead of doing that effort, and that is an effort, and it's a moral effort,
01:29:36.460 because it reveals something profoundly disturbing about the nature of the human soul, you might say,
01:29:42.700 the easiest thing to think is, well, nobody could possibly undertake an action like that unless they'd been brutalized and were victims.
01:29:51.740 And so then you fall into the pathology of feeling sorry for the truly sadistic psychopaths, and that's a really bad strategy, right?
01:29:59.880 I mean, the really dark, sadistic actors, they weaponize that compassion in a second.
01:30:06.080 It's part of the pathology.
01:30:07.700 And modern, naive, liberal people, especially if they're young, they have no idea.
01:30:12.280 They have no idea about it.
01:30:13.320 They don't want to have any idea about any of that.
01:30:15.800 This is where I think you should force them to watch Israel's October 7th video,
01:30:19.660 where you see 2,000, at least, psychopaths with that capability,
01:30:25.060 who show, who, for whatever, rape is not resistance, right?
01:30:29.240 Everything that is seen there, the burning, all of that.
01:30:32.860 If somebody believes that evil doesn't exist, all they have to do is watch Hamas's videos.
01:30:37.680 Yeah, you'd think that'd be enough to convince people, but I don't think it would.
01:30:41.620 I think people would watch that.
01:30:43.720 You see, the thing is, is to watch that and then to understand it is traumatizing.
01:30:50.440 Yes.
01:30:50.720 Right, because you have to reconfigure your vision of what human beings are like and capable of so profoundly
01:30:56.940 that you really have nothing left, especially if you're naive.
01:31:00.780 And naive people are much more likely to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder.
01:31:05.880 And so what people generally do instead is they watch, but they don't really watch.
01:31:11.340 And they see, but they don't really see, right?
01:31:13.880 And then their rationalizations and their previous ideology just kicks back in, or they won't watch.
01:31:19.780 And so I can understand that, but it's not helpful.
01:31:22.620 This is what I've faced in my world of urban warfare is like, how can you not see these pictures of destruction
01:31:27.260 and say that Israel's not purposely doing that to harm, like, because I can show you every urban warfare scenario
01:31:34.080 where the defender defended every building that looks like that.
01:31:37.700 Why does every battle that I can explain to you, why does the biggest battle of the Iraq war was the 2004 Battle of Fallujah,
01:31:44.780 not the Battle of Baghdad?
01:31:46.420 Because if the defender moves in there, it's a very destructive battle.
01:31:51.200 But I've faced that now, like, I don't care what you say, John Spencer.
01:31:53.520 Or Israel is evil, and they're trying to destroy Palestine.
01:31:57.480 Like, all the evidence, everything they're doing is actually to prevent harm.
01:32:03.380 What's the evidence that people are swayed by evidence?
01:32:07.820 Right?
01:32:08.460 That isn't generally, like, well, people, the more naive people are and the more ignorant they are,
01:32:17.340 the more they view the world through lenses of radical simplification.
01:32:21.920 And one of the most simplified lenses is victim-victimizer narrative.
01:32:28.580 And it's perfect because you can explain everything with it.
01:32:31.940 You can explain history.
01:32:33.060 You can explain economic relations.
01:32:34.960 You can explain the family.
01:32:36.380 You can explain the relationships between men and women and parents and children.
01:32:40.020 It's all power.
01:32:41.600 One's a victim.
01:32:42.280 One's a victimizer.
01:32:43.460 So that explains the whole world.
01:32:44.840 You can learn that in five minutes.
01:32:46.200 But there's another advantage to it, too, is that, so imagine you want to simplify the world because that's easy.
01:32:51.840 But then the other thing you want to do is you want to take your place as a moral actor in the world so that you're elevated in your moral status.
01:32:58.300 Well, if you've identified the victim properly, all you have to do is announce your allyship with the victim.
01:33:05.080 And now you're the Messiah.
01:33:06.180 And so the victim-victimizer narrative is the perfect hyper-simplification, both conceptually and morally.
01:33:14.600 And that's what's promulgated on university campuses in the name of education.
01:33:19.460 It's like, well, everything's a victim-victimizer dynamic.
01:33:22.660 That's the power thesis of the postmodernists, let's say.
01:33:26.120 It's the power thesis of the Marxists.
01:33:27.660 You just view it through a lens of power, identify the oppressed, ally yourself with them.
01:33:33.520 All your existential and conceptual problems are solved, right?
01:33:37.920 Unbelievably pernicious.
01:33:39.680 And, you know, the Jews are taking the brunt of that now because they've been cast as victimizers.
01:33:45.040 And so hence the massive rise of anti-Semitism on the side of the radical left, which is, you know, par for the course historically.
01:33:51.540 Brutal.
01:33:52.260 Yeah, I think the fear, fear-mongering has a bit of that.
01:33:54.880 People fear what they don't understand.
01:33:56.340 And since they don't have a mental construct to understand war, it's all bad.
01:34:00.600 It's all wrong.
01:34:02.180 They just want it to stop.
01:34:03.080 Yeah, yeah.
01:34:03.780 Well, you know, and as a first pass approximation, war is bad.
01:34:08.160 It's not a bad theory.
01:34:09.820 Right.
01:34:10.060 But the problem is, is that there are worse things than war.
01:34:16.920 Yep.
01:34:17.360 Right?
01:34:17.840 And to understand that, you see, you have to look into darkness.
01:34:21.540 And that's a rough thing to ask of people, even though it's necessary.
01:34:26.880 All right, sir.
01:34:28.300 Well, on that happy note, we could probably bring this section of our discussion to a close.
01:34:34.720 I want to talk to you about some things that are probably more personal.
01:34:37.720 I'm going to do that on the Daily Wire side.
01:34:39.380 So those of you who are watching and listening, thank you for this.
01:34:42.220 By the way, that was extremely instructive.
01:34:44.960 I really appreciate the opportunity personally to, you know, to ask you the questions I did ask you.
01:34:50.440 Because I'm trying to get my understanding of the situation in Israel and in relationship to Hamas and the Palestinians right.
01:34:59.580 And I've looked at this a lot and I've talked to a lot of people.
01:35:02.600 And, you know, it was useful to me to test out some of the conceptions I had against your knowledge to see if I'm, like, way the hell out in right field as it would be.
01:35:13.380 And hopefully it's real useful for everybody watching and listening to hear a more detailed analysis of the situation that Israel finds itself in.
01:35:22.920 And so I think what we'll do on the Daily Wire side for all of you watching and listening is I'd like to find out, you know, more about your military career and how you entered the academic world and why you picked urban warfare specifically as your target of inquiry.
01:35:39.580 And we'll probably delve a little bit more into the details of urban warfare as well.
01:35:43.460 So if all of you who are watching and listening want to join us, we'll do that on the Daily Wire side.
01:35:47.460 So thank you very much.
01:35:48.700 Thanks, sir.
01:35:49.100 Yeah, and thanks for coming here today to do this in person.
01:35:51.220 It's always better to do it in person.
01:35:53.060 Yeah, you bet.
01:35:53.540 Absolutely.
01:35:53.880 Thank you.
01:35:54.080 You bet.
01:35:54.500 Yeah.
01:36:06.280 Craig, Craig, Craig.
01:36:08.020 Craig likes it warm.
01:36:09.520 Craig loves 71 degrees Fahrenheit.
01:36:12.400 Craig doesn't understand Fahrenheit.
01:36:14.400 But Craig does like to save money when he's at work.
01:36:17.240 Craig also cares about his carbon footprint.
01:36:19.600 He's so thoughtful, that Craig.
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01:36:35.960 There are no right.
01:36:36.440 There are no right away.
01:36:36.540 There are no right.
01:36:37.020 There are no right.
01:36:37.240 There are no right.
01:36:38.640 There are no right.
01:36:38.980 There are no right.
01:36:39.280 There are no right.
01:36:39.640 There are no right.
01:36:40.740 There are no right.
01:36:41.760 There are no right.
01:36:42.040 There are no right.
01:36:43.000 There are no right.
01:36:43.420 There are no right.
01:36:43.840 There are no right.
01:36:44.640 There are no right.
01:36:44.940 There are no right.
01:36:46.220 There are no right.
01:36:46.680 There are no right.
01:36:46.900 There are no right.
01:36:47.660 There are no right.
01:36:48.300 There are no right.
01:36:48.940 Well, 제�창 and then, and I see you there.
01:36:49.560 There are no right.
01:36:50.000 There are no right.
01:36:50.660 Yeah, way to do it.
01:36:51.820 I see you there.
01:36:52.740 Movement on Canada.