The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast - 551. An Honest Take on the Looming Energy Crisis ｜ Scott Tinker

00:00:00.000 This is Dr. Jordan B. Peterson.

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00:00:15.240 If you're concerned about people who are struggling,

00:00:17.580 as far as I can tell, there's nothing more important than energy.

00:00:20.000 There's a great experiment going on right now

00:00:22.320 as we've put more intermittent energy,

00:00:24.560 led by solar and wind, onto grids.

00:00:26.880 How much can you push that?

00:00:28.140 When that sun or wind go away,

00:00:30.400 something has to be there immediately to back that up,

00:00:33.440 to make it continue to work.

00:00:34.840 And it's brutal managing a grid that has things coming and going.

00:00:38.540 The most appropriate way to serve the poor 0.68

00:00:40.060 is to make energy radically available reliably, period.

00:00:44.400 If you want to clean up the atmosphere emissions

00:00:47.760 as well as the land, the air, and the water,

00:00:50.340 you have to accelerate economic development.

00:00:52.740 If this is all true, then why the hell aren't we doing it?

00:00:56.360 We're not out of energy options.

00:00:58.400 We're out of ideas.

00:00:59.100 The banner of war that's flown by the Greens

00:01:03.000 is the carbon dioxide apocalypse narrative.

00:01:06.920 The best solution to that is clearly nuclear.

00:01:10.020 Clearly.

00:01:10.680 But the Greens, as they're doing in Spain,

00:01:12.980 as they already have done in Germany,

00:01:14.780 they're anti-nuclear,

00:01:16.060 which indicates more strongly than anything else

00:01:18.260 that the story is not about carbon dioxide pollution.

00:01:21.680 It's about something else.

00:01:22.760 So I had the opportunity today to speak with Scott Tinker,

00:01:42.100 and I've spoken to Scott before and on a podcast,

00:01:44.880 and he was a contributing speaker at ARC

00:01:47.320 and delivered one of the most popular public speeches

00:01:50.600 that we've ever put on the ARC platform

00:01:52.800 on energy and the environment.

00:01:56.000 Why should you listen to this podcast?

00:01:58.700 Well, there's a bunch of reasons.

00:02:00.480 The most practical is that Scott will walk you through

00:02:07.020 what you need to know

00:02:08.420 to basically have a schematic understanding

00:02:12.700 of the structures upon which your abundant world depends,

00:02:17.840 the energy infrastructure.

00:02:19.860 And he'll tell you a story

00:02:21.560 that you won't hear from other sources,

00:02:24.400 and it's accurate.

00:02:26.200 And you need to know these things

00:02:27.660 because knowing them helps you understand

00:02:31.380 what opportunities the future holds.

00:02:33.560 And so much of what we're told about the future

00:02:35.960 is transmitted to us by people

00:02:39.280 who ratchet their way to power

00:02:42.300 by terrifying and compelling the population.

00:02:45.500 And that's the sign of a kind of tyranny.

00:02:48.080 Scott offers something much more

00:02:49.640 like an invitational vision,

00:02:51.280 which is that we could have an abundant world

00:02:53.820 for everyone if we set our mind on that.

00:02:56.500 There's no fundamental scarcity of natural resource.

00:02:59.700 There's no looming apocalypse

00:03:01.760 that we can address

00:03:03.560 by making the world a worse place,

00:03:06.200 that the pathway forward to abundance

00:03:08.960 and plenitude and opportunity

00:03:10.480 is through ample energy provision of all sources

00:03:14.600 and the elevation of the poor in the world

00:03:17.940 to the status of, well, roughly of the developed West.

00:03:24.220 Can we do that?

00:03:25.660 Yes.

00:03:27.280 There's no shortage of resources.

00:03:29.380 That entire conceptual structure is faulty.

00:03:31.900 There's shortage of will and resolve.

00:03:36.120 And you need to know this.

00:03:38.000 You need to know this if you're young

00:03:40.160 because a world that's rife with apocalyptic fear-mongering

00:03:45.620 is one that will demoralize you.

00:03:47.700 You need to know this if you're going to have children

00:03:49.560 because you have to understand

00:03:51.080 what kind of world they could inhabit

00:03:52.580 and what kind of world the doomsayers will doom them to

00:03:56.220 if the narrative is wrong.

00:03:57.700 And I don't know anyone who knows more about this

00:04:01.100 and who's a more thoughtful and informed speaker

00:04:03.880 about such issues than Scott.

00:04:06.380 And so do yourself a favor

00:04:08.500 and pay attention to this podcast.

00:04:12.340 So, Scott, I thought I'd start this

00:04:14.700 with a bit of a story from Spain.

00:04:16.620 And I received this today,

00:04:20.720 found this today from the Telegraph,

00:04:22.400 which I sometimes write for.

00:04:24.560 As you know, most people watching perhaps know,

00:04:27.580 or at least some do,

00:04:29.160 the whole country faced a blackout

00:04:31.800 and more than the country, right?

00:04:33.660 Into Portugal and France as well.

00:04:35.640 Oh, Iberian Peninsula.

00:04:36.320 Just a few weeks ago,

00:04:37.460 I think it was the biggest,

00:04:39.380 well, it's described in the Telegraph

00:04:40.600 as the worst electricity failure

00:04:42.420 in any developed country in modern times.

00:04:44.460 So, another number one for Spain.

00:04:47.800 The stench of a cover-up

00:04:49.180 hangs over Spain's giant blackout.

00:04:51.780 Faith in the current investigation

00:04:53.140 has reached rock bottom.

00:04:55.360 The socialist government of Pedro Sanchez

00:04:57.400 is trying to buy time with explanations

00:04:59.140 that either make no technical sense

00:05:01.000 or veer into absurdity.

00:05:03.140 Red Electrica, there's a name for you,

00:05:06.020 which runs the grid,

00:05:06.960 is accused of stonewalling everybody.

00:05:09.620 Sources in Brussels have told the Telegraph

00:05:11.440 that the authorities were conducting an experiment

00:05:13.380 before the system crashed,

00:05:15.340 probing how far they could push reliance on renewables

00:05:18.280 in preparation for Spain's rushed phase-out

00:05:22.180 of nuclear reactors from 2027.

00:05:25.380 The government seems to have pushed the pace recklessly

00:05:27.960 before making the necessary investments

00:05:30.400 in a sophisticated 21st century smart grid

00:05:33.080 capable of handling it.

00:05:35.100 Okay, so, well, what's the background to that story?

00:05:37.780 They also put a woman in charge 0.52

00:05:39.460 of the entire electrical grid

00:05:41.220 who had absolutely no experience in the area

00:05:43.420 and she's been an unmitigated disaster.

00:05:45.980 And so, well, that sort of sets the stage

00:05:48.600 for our conversation.

00:05:50.260 I mean, we've talked a number of times

00:05:52.060 for everybody watching and listening.

00:05:54.780 Scott's participated in the ARC Endeavour,

00:05:56.980 Alliance for Responsible Citizenship in London.

00:06:00.200 We're trying to build a visionary alternative

00:06:03.500 on the international side

00:06:05.500 for a future of abundance

00:06:08.080 and distributed responsibility

00:06:10.960 instead of top-down apocalyptic nightmare control.

00:06:14.840 And so that seems like a good alternative.

00:06:16.600 And Scott's been extremely helpful

00:06:18.220 on the energy side

00:06:19.920 because he shares the ARC vision

00:06:22.460 of low-cost, reliable energy

00:06:26.640 distributed worldwide

00:06:28.420 as the foundation for peace and abundance

00:06:31.780 and direct aid to the poor

00:06:34.340 in the most possibly effective way.

00:06:36.820 And so we're going to run over

00:06:38.220 that territory today.

00:06:40.540 And Scott is very well connected

00:06:43.800 among people who understand

00:06:45.600 how the energy system works.

00:06:47.640 And he's going to, well,

00:06:49.340 share his expertise with us

00:06:50.580 so that we can sort out

00:06:51.820 just what the hell's going on.

00:06:53.660 So let's start with that.

00:06:55.400 So comments about the Spanish situation

00:06:58.860 and its implications for Europe more broadly

00:07:01.360 and Australia for that matter,

00:07:03.780 because they're experimenting

00:07:04.720 with the same thing.

00:07:06.320 Right.

00:07:07.600 Well, it's good to be here with you.

00:07:08.720 And that's a tough situation

00:07:12.860 and tragic and dangerous for human lives

00:07:15.580 when you have major blackouts like that.

00:07:17.840 So I always go back

00:07:20.280 to some of the underlying principles

00:07:22.460 of all these things, Jordan,

00:07:24.240 and I am not against any form of energy.

00:07:28.600 In fact, I've put solar in

00:07:29.940 an indigenous village in Columbia,

00:07:32.120 our Waco people.

00:07:33.720 Oh, that's all they had.

00:07:34.880 We put three and a half kilowatt array

00:07:36.580 to put light bulbs and mud huts

00:07:38.540 and ceiling fans in a refrigerator.

00:07:40.380 They didn't have wires.

00:07:41.200 They didn't have roads.

00:07:41.900 They didn't have pipes.

00:07:42.980 Right.

00:07:43.240 First electricity.

00:07:44.620 Get started with it.

00:07:45.540 Scaling things is the great challenge in energy.

00:07:49.400 And so when you,

00:07:51.180 let's just think about the physics

00:07:53.280 of these things a little bit.

00:07:55.760 Intermittent source of energy.

00:07:57.660 The sun sets at night

00:07:59.360 and it's cloudy sometimes.

00:08:01.820 And sometimes it's cloudy for a long time.

00:08:03.360 The Germans have a word for it. 0.89

00:08:04.660 Dunkelflotte.

00:08:05.600 Sometimes it hails too.

00:08:07.080 Sometimes the wind, you know,

00:08:09.980 quits blowing.

00:08:11.580 So when that happens,

00:08:14.240 in the modern world anyway,

00:08:15.960 the developed world,

00:08:16.760 we like our electricity 24-7.

00:08:18.700 We want it on.

00:08:20.120 And when it's not on,

00:08:22.480 systems fail, big systems.

00:08:24.580 So there's a great experiment going on right now

00:08:27.120 as we've put more intermittent energy,

00:08:30.680 but it's led by solar and wind,

00:08:32.220 onto grids.

00:08:33.100 And how much can you push that?

00:08:37.280 Because what has to happen

00:08:38.440 when you increase the percentage

00:08:41.400 of intermittent energy on an electric grid

00:08:44.040 is when the,

00:08:46.000 because we consume electrons in real time,

00:08:48.980 right?

00:08:49.400 You generate them,

00:08:50.220 you use them.

00:08:51.420 When that sun or wind go away,

00:08:54.360 something has to be there immediately.

00:08:55.720 Right then,

00:08:57.420 in real time,

00:08:58.440 to back that up,

00:09:00.220 to make it continue to work.

00:09:01.840 And it's brutal managing a grid

00:09:03.720 that has things coming and going.

00:09:06.620 Right.

00:09:07.140 I mean, you're...

00:09:07.800 Right, the grid's designed

00:09:08.900 for a stable,

00:09:10.180 stable inputs.

00:09:11.240 Stable inputs.

00:09:11.680 And relatively predictable outputs.

00:09:13.340 60 hertz,

00:09:14.420 you know,

00:09:15.320 bring it to us.

00:09:17.880 No fluctuations

00:09:19.160 that burn out your electrical equipment

00:09:21.180 or make it fail.

00:09:22.180 Just like,

00:09:23.780 you know,

00:09:24.160 you could fry a blow dryer

00:09:25.660 in your home,

00:09:27.400 you can fry bigger things on a grid

00:09:29.580 if you get big grid fluctuations.

00:09:32.600 So...

00:09:33.200 Okay, so there's two problems at...

00:09:35.440 At least.

00:09:35.960 Yeah, at least.

00:09:36.900 Okay, so let's lay it out

00:09:38.640 from first principles.

00:09:39.960 The first thing we could agree

00:09:41.200 is that there's no abundance,

00:09:44.260 and that means

00:09:44.920 a plethora of starvation-level poverty

00:09:48.560 and hand-to-mouth existence

00:09:51.300 in the absence of energy.

00:09:53.120 Right?

00:09:53.400 There's no real difference

00:09:54.640 between energy and work

00:09:55.720 and no difference

00:09:56.380 between work and wealth.

00:09:57.840 So if you're concerned

00:09:58.940 about people who are struggling,

00:10:00.520 as far as I can tell,

00:10:01.620 there's nothing more important

00:10:02.560 than energy.

00:10:03.260 Now, you made a case

00:10:04.220 that on the energy front,

00:10:05.720 there are two cardinal concerns.

00:10:07.980 One is abundance of supply,

00:10:10.300 but the other is regularity

00:10:11.940 and predictability of supply.

00:10:13.280 Reliability.

00:10:13.760 Right, reliability.

00:10:14.760 Yeah.

00:10:14.940 Right, as important as provision.

00:10:17.300 Right.

00:10:17.560 And let's come back

00:10:18.900 because it's such a big component

00:10:21.100 of my work

00:10:22.300 and life's passion, too.

00:10:23.680 Let's come back

00:10:24.420 to those who don't have much

00:10:25.900 or any in transitioning.

00:10:28.220 So we're kind of starting

00:10:29.080 with the rich world.

00:10:31.220 We're starting here

00:10:32.180 with a modern world, right?

00:10:33.320 The developed world.

00:10:34.380 We have a grid

00:10:35.180 and it's a complicated beast.

00:10:37.040 Grids are not simple.

00:10:38.700 They have multiple different inputs

00:10:41.240 transmitting across,

00:10:43.620 stepping up, you know,

00:10:45.000 to big voltages,

00:10:46.100 transmitting across

00:10:47.760 multiple different wire systems.

00:10:49.180 Think of interstate freeways,

00:10:51.640 stepping down to state highways,

00:10:53.660 stepping down to county roads,

00:10:55.280 stepping down to the little driveway

00:10:56.600 that goes to your house. 0.56

00:10:57.540 Well, that's what your wires do.

00:10:59.140 So you're having to take

00:11:00.160 big voltages

00:11:01.700 coming out of power plants

00:11:02.920 and step them down

00:11:03.820 ever more to little homes

00:11:05.860 and industries and businesses.

00:11:07.680 Yeah.

00:11:07.760 And hospitals.

00:11:10.280 And hospitals.

00:11:10.980 And guess what?

00:11:13.340 AI and data centers

00:11:14.520 that want 99.99% reliability.

00:11:18.220 Right, right.

00:11:18.820 They have to have,

00:11:19.520 they have to always be on.

00:11:20.560 Like jets, let's say.

00:11:22.220 You can't fail.

00:11:23.000 Right.

00:11:23.380 Essentially, you can't fail.

00:11:24.720 Right, right.

00:11:25.380 So you're putting

00:11:26.900 all these inputs in

00:11:27.980 and the more inputs

00:11:29.060 in some ways is good.

00:11:32.280 Optionality and energy is good,

00:11:33.680 like your stock portfolio,

00:11:35.640 your real estate portfolio.

00:11:36.640 I like options in energy.

00:11:38.340 If you get limited to one or two,

00:11:40.820 you're betting a lot on that thing.

00:11:42.360 I don't buy one stock.

00:11:44.180 So I don't mind a lot of inputs,

00:11:46.100 but we've got to realize

00:11:47.300 that they're not all created equal.

00:11:50.160 And when we talk about

00:11:52.240 the intermittent forms of energy,

00:11:53.660 the sun and the wind

00:11:54.540 and some others,

00:11:56.740 they come and go.

00:11:58.620 And that's not judgment.

00:12:00.020 That's just physics.

00:12:01.320 That's just the reality

00:12:02.300 of the way the sun

00:12:03.560 and the wind work.

00:12:04.260 So I got to have

00:12:05.260 something there.

00:12:07.840 What's that German word

00:12:09.020 for the wind drought?

00:12:10.600 Dunkelfläute.

00:12:11.260 Right.

00:12:11.600 And so there's lots of situations

00:12:13.100 in Europe in particular

00:12:14.320 so far

00:12:15.480 where the sun isn't available

00:12:18.020 because it's a northern place

00:12:19.680 fundamentally.

00:12:20.480 Germany's cloudy.

00:12:21.040 And neither is the wind.

00:12:22.360 Right.

00:12:22.980 And then it's my understanding

00:12:25.120 as well that

00:12:25.840 to the degree that your grid

00:12:27.180 is reliant on

00:12:28.380 intermittent power sources,

00:12:30.160 you need backups

00:12:32.080 that, as you said,

00:12:33.400 are instantly available.

00:12:35.500 Right.

00:12:35.800 So that means you can't

00:12:36.700 start up a nuclear plant

00:12:38.100 because that takes a long time.

00:12:39.560 Correct.

00:12:39.920 But also that

00:12:40.800 have the same capacity

00:12:43.280 as the system

00:12:44.080 you're replacing.

00:12:45.440 Yes.

00:12:45.740 So what that implies,

00:12:47.020 as far as I can tell,

00:12:47.980 is that if you build

00:12:48.940 a primarily solar

00:12:50.360 and wind grid,

00:12:51.980 you have to have

00:12:53.020 so far

00:12:54.360 either a nuclear

00:12:55.640 or fossil fuel backup

00:12:56.800 that's ready online

00:12:57.980 online to go,

00:12:59.540 which essentially means

00:13:00.480 you have to build

00:13:00.980 two systems.

00:13:03.000 Yeah,

00:13:03.340 you're building two systems

00:13:04.440 and they're redundant,

00:13:07.080 which makes them expensive.

00:13:08.420 Right, right.

00:13:10.380 I mean,

00:13:10.800 and you think

00:13:11.360 poor air traffic controllers

00:13:13.020 I flew today

00:13:13.760 have a,

00:13:15.260 you know,

00:13:15.820 pull out your hair job,

00:13:17.000 stressful.

00:13:17.960 Try managing a grid

00:13:19.000 because I've been inside them.

00:13:20.900 ERCOT is the

00:13:22.000 Electricity Reliability

00:13:23.320 Council of Texas.

00:13:24.520 Texas has its own grid.

00:13:26.180 It's Texas.

00:13:27.520 Yeah.

00:13:27.680 We can secede someday

00:13:28.980 from the nations.

00:13:29.700 Right, right, right.

00:13:30.200 We have our own electric grid.

00:13:31.800 I've been inside ERCOT

00:13:32.840 and there are

00:13:34.200 a wall of panels

00:13:35.820 and grid operators

00:13:36.760 and all the different lines

00:13:38.700 and you see arrows

00:13:39.520 flowing different directions

00:13:40.560 and they are literally

00:13:41.360 calling on people,

00:13:42.640 start up that gas plant,

00:13:44.200 shut it down,

00:13:45.520 make sure that-

00:13:46.200 It's orchestrating it.

00:13:46.840 It's incredible.

00:13:47.940 Make sure the baseload

00:13:49.200 nuclear is always running.

00:13:50.460 You don't,

00:13:50.780 you don't turn nukes

00:13:51.740 on and off.

00:13:52.540 Yeah.

00:13:52.760 They just run.

00:13:53.780 We have four nuclear reactors

00:13:55.060 in Texas,

00:13:55.820 two at Comanche Peak,

00:13:56.660 two at South Texas Project.

00:13:58.200 They always run.

00:13:59.340 Coal,

00:14:00.100 it likes to always be on.

00:14:01.680 Yeah.

00:14:02.080 Think of cooking indoors

00:14:04.080 in your kitchen.

00:14:04.760 Would you bring charcoal in

00:14:05.960 and light it up?

00:14:06.800 You know,

00:14:07.220 that takes a while

00:14:08.080 to get started

00:14:08.740 and once it's going,

00:14:09.600 it takes a long time.

00:14:10.300 And how many industrial processes

00:14:11.900 rely even for their physical integrity

00:14:16.000 on continuous power supplies?

00:14:17.440 I know there are industrial processes

00:14:19.220 where if they lose power long enough,

00:14:22.100 steel smelters and so forth,

00:14:23.620 it devastates the plant.

00:14:24.980 Refrigeration?

00:14:25.780 Right.

00:14:26.060 Freezing?

00:14:26.500 Of course.

00:14:27.040 Of course.

00:14:27.480 Medicines?

00:14:27.940 Right.

00:14:28.560 Hospitals?

00:14:29.440 No,

00:14:29.800 everybody likes it always on.

00:14:33.040 Some are not fully reliable,

00:14:34.980 reliant on it.

00:14:36.460 But so,

00:14:36.880 you know,

00:14:37.340 coal isn't great for that.

00:14:38.840 Nuclear and coal,

00:14:39.840 they're called baseload.

00:14:41.860 They satisfy the minimum demand

00:14:44.040 on that grid.

00:14:45.580 So that's what you want in place.

00:14:47.120 You need that in place,

00:14:48.280 some baseload.

00:14:49.220 That's the foundation.

00:14:50.340 Foundation.

00:14:50.960 Yeah.

00:14:51.380 And natural gas,

00:14:53.000 it's like cooking.

00:14:53.780 I can turn on my gas stove,

00:14:55.460 boom,

00:14:55.740 it's hot.

00:14:56.200 Right, right.

00:14:56.760 Cook, cook, cook, 0.67

00:14:57.320 turn it off,

00:14:57.820 boom,

00:14:58.040 it's gone.

00:14:58.860 Right.

00:14:59.220 Natural gas is extremely clean too,

00:15:01.100 all things considered.

00:15:01.960 No sulfur,

00:15:03.460 no socks,

00:15:04.260 no nitrogen in nox,

00:15:06.080 no mercury,

00:15:06.720 no particulates.

00:15:07.740 Right, right.

00:15:08.580 It has CO2 when you burn it.

00:15:10.340 Hey,

00:15:10.580 the plants love that,

00:15:11.660 Scott.

00:15:12.060 Well,

00:15:12.380 we won't go there,

00:15:13.760 but let's,

00:15:14.620 yeah,

00:15:15.080 relative to coal and oil,

00:15:17.920 natural gas is extremely clean.

00:15:19.460 It doesn't have all the,

00:15:21.640 why?

00:15:22.420 Coal is all carbon.

00:15:25.040 Hydrocarbons or oil is complex carbon

00:15:28.740 and hydrogen chains.

00:15:29.700 Natural gas is CH4.

00:15:31.300 Right.

00:15:31.480 Methane,

00:15:31.860 one carbon,

00:15:32.300 four hydrogens.

00:15:33.840 It has more energy intensity,

00:15:36.400 density,

00:15:36.860 natural gas than oil and coal.

00:15:40.220 And that sounds weird.

00:15:41.380 Gas?

00:15:42.780 Per unit weight.

00:15:43.900 Right.

00:15:44.320 So I take a pound of natural gas,

00:15:47.180 you got to get it really cold

00:15:49.060 to make it liquid

00:15:49.800 or a super critical form.

00:15:51.300 A pound of natural gas

00:15:52.220 has more energy in it

00:15:53.320 than a pound of oil.

00:15:54.700 Might be worth explaining

00:15:55.920 in some detail

00:15:56.720 this notion of energy density

00:15:58.240 and its relationship

00:15:59.180 to transportability,

00:16:00.600 for example.

00:16:01.060 Sure.

00:16:01.940 Sure.

00:16:02.460 And we'll come back

00:16:03.240 to the grid.

00:16:03.900 Yep.

00:16:04.160 Yeah.

00:16:04.620 But,

00:16:05.420 and so,

00:16:06.600 and also I want to say

00:16:08.240 with the grid,

00:16:08.940 the electricity,

00:16:09.740 most people don't think

00:16:10.840 about this,

00:16:11.380 including our leaders.

00:16:12.620 Electricity is only about

00:16:13.720 25 to 30%

00:16:15.160 of our total energy consumption.

00:16:17.140 Uh-huh.

00:16:17.400 Uh-huh.

00:16:17.900 65 to 70% is something else.

00:16:21.300 Okay.

00:16:21.840 And,

00:16:22.120 and that's all the fuels

00:16:24.200 we use,

00:16:24.820 the molecules

00:16:25.440 to do transportation

00:16:26.720 and commercial

00:16:27.800 and residential

00:16:28.500 and industrial uses

00:16:29.640 of various kinds.

00:16:30.260 So travel's a huge part of that.

00:16:31.940 Travel's a big piece of it.

00:16:33.040 Mm-hmm.

00:16:33.580 Residential, commercial,

00:16:34.460 and industrial heating

00:16:35.500 and cooling, basically,

00:16:36.680 to keep buildings cool.

00:16:38.360 Yeah.

00:16:38.740 Or warm.

00:16:40.300 And then we use molecules

00:16:41.720 for a lot of other things.

00:16:43.100 We make fertilizers.

00:16:45.120 Yeah.

00:16:45.520 Which feed, what,

00:16:46.300 half the world's population?

00:16:47.740 At least now

00:16:48.700 and growing.

00:16:49.480 Ammonia comes from methane.

00:16:50.960 Yeah.

00:16:51.660 Yeah.

00:16:52.240 And,

00:16:52.680 and plastics.

00:16:54.580 We use natural gas

00:16:56.560 for plastics.

00:16:57.560 All the things we do

00:16:59.040 in the world

00:16:59.680 that have physical constructs

00:17:02.480 around them

00:17:02.880 are molecules.

00:17:03.840 So we're not going

00:17:04.300 to electrify everything.

00:17:05.360 That's a silly notion. 0.88

00:17:06.300 Right. 0.96

00:17:06.640 Right.

00:17:07.100 Soundbite, 0.81

00:17:07.600 but it's a silly notion. 0.65

00:17:08.940 Right.

00:17:09.160 And we've elect,

00:17:10.440 even attempting

00:17:11.920 to electrify things

00:17:13.060 for 100 years,

00:17:14.560 150 years,

00:17:15.700 we're up to 25 to 30%

00:17:17.280 of what we use.

00:17:17.880 30% globally.

00:17:18.600 Right.

00:17:18.980 And even in this country still,

00:17:20.460 we're not over 50% in the U.S.

00:17:23.360 Shopify powers millions

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00:18:18.600 I read that Ford Motor Company

00:18:22.960 loses $45,000

00:18:24.280 on every electric vehicle

00:18:25.680 that sells.

00:18:26.380 On the trucks.

00:18:27.380 Yeah.

00:18:27.580 The lightning.

00:18:28.400 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:18:29.300 So that's rough.

00:18:30.120 They're all backing off.

00:18:30.820 Yeah, well,

00:18:31.240 Tesla manages it,

00:18:32.920 but very few other people

00:18:34.020 have been able to do it.

00:18:35.260 Europe is starting.

00:18:35.700 And you need a hell of an infrastructure

00:18:36.840 for Tesla to work,

00:18:38.320 and I don't know

00:18:39.060 how well those vehicles

00:18:40.980 operate in frigid temperatures.

00:18:43.340 Or hot ones.

00:18:44.420 Right.

00:18:44.860 Yeah, they're tough.

00:18:45.920 Because then you have to cool.

00:18:47.200 They're tough.

00:18:48.120 Yeah.

00:18:48.600 Again, that's a good topic

00:18:49.820 to come to.

00:18:51.000 But I'd say density

00:18:52.620 is a fundamental concept.

00:18:56.040 I did a TEDx talk

00:18:57.400 to 1,100 kids,

00:18:58.500 and the way I explained density

00:18:59.820 to start it was with food.

00:19:01.880 I just said,

00:19:02.480 hey, there's kale

00:19:04.100 and there's cow.

00:19:05.720 Right.

00:19:06.540 And if I,

00:19:08.500 and they both give me calories.

00:19:10.260 Only marketers think kale

00:19:11.540 is food, by the way.

00:19:12.200 Well, okay, well,

00:19:13.200 and a lot of people

00:19:15.840 have written me and said,

00:19:16.740 kale?

00:19:17.280 Can you pick something else?

00:19:18.360 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:19:19.080 Yeah, you know.

00:19:19.860 But no, kale and cow, 0.95

00:19:21.280 they're kind of fun,

00:19:22.460 and I threw in ice cream too,

00:19:23.720 but I'd have to eat

00:19:25.880 a whole lot of kale

00:19:27.120 to get the same calories

00:19:29.540 as a piece of steak,

00:19:32.820 just volumetrically, right?

00:19:35.560 And so the density,

00:19:37.740 when you start thinking

00:19:38.480 about density,

00:19:39.260 you can think about it

00:19:40.180 in food terms now.

00:19:42.380 Chimps chew eight hours a day.

00:19:44.340 Yeah, cows chew forever. 1.00

00:19:45.580 Right, right, exactly.

00:19:46.700 And multiple times

00:19:47.840 with multiple stomachs, right? 0.77

00:19:49.300 Right.

00:19:49.600 Right, because their food

00:19:50.260 is not dense.

00:19:51.060 Right.

00:19:51.180 They do a lot of the work

00:19:52.080 for us, cows.

00:19:52.760 Right.

00:19:53.520 Now, I happen to think,

00:19:55.580 at least for my body,

00:19:57.120 a mixture of food inputs

00:19:58.440 isn't a bad thing.

00:19:59.560 Okay, I don't have allergies,

00:20:01.240 I'm good.

00:20:01.760 So I have vegetables,

00:20:03.460 I have some fruits,

00:20:04.320 I eat meat for sure

00:20:05.400 and other things,

00:20:06.260 and it's a diverse diet.

00:20:08.780 Think about that like energy.

00:20:10.400 So in density terms,

00:20:12.280 we come back to energy.

00:20:14.520 Energy per unit weight.

00:20:17.420 Things like hay,

00:20:20.380 our first energy effort

00:20:21.640 that our vehicles ate

00:20:22.720 to motor themselves around,

00:20:25.120 and wood,

00:20:26.400 and dung,

00:20:27.860 and other kinds of biomass

00:20:29.660 were the early human-like things

00:20:32.900 used for energy.

00:20:34.860 And many of the world's poor now.

00:20:36.700 And still do.

00:20:37.700 We are consuming more of those things

00:20:39.780 than we ever have still,

00:20:41.000 which is ironic.

00:20:41.960 There are more people.

00:20:42.960 Yeah.

00:20:43.060 So not percentage-wise,

00:20:44.140 but in actual consumption units,

00:20:46.140 more of those.

00:20:47.600 Now, we start to transition naturally.

00:20:49.440 We discover charcoal, or coal.

00:20:51.840 Nature took all the plants

00:20:53.060 and made it into

00:20:53.800 a dense carbon form called coal.

00:20:56.780 Nature did the work.

00:20:58.140 Time, heat, pressure.

00:21:00.520 So now I've got dense plants

00:21:02.000 called coal.

00:21:03.240 And in 1804,

00:21:04.420 the very first

00:21:05.180 commercial steam engine

00:21:07.620 for a train

00:21:08.620 in Wales

00:21:09.960 took its first journey,

00:21:12.140 1804.

00:21:13.040 And there were a billion people

00:21:14.440 in the world in 1804.

00:21:16.740 We'd grown from 110 million

00:21:18.600 in 1,000 BC,

00:21:20.280 that's a perfect census back then,

00:21:21.660 we know.

00:21:22.480 They counted them all.

00:21:23.800 110 million

00:21:24.560 to 1 billion

00:21:25.680 in those thousands of years.

00:21:28.120 And then we went

00:21:28.940 from 1 billion people

00:21:30.100 to 8.3 billion people

00:21:32.300 in a couple hundred years.

00:21:33.980 The hydrocarbon age

00:21:34.980 kicked off.

00:21:35.640 Coal and oil,

00:21:38.040 again, carbon and hydrogen,

00:21:39.300 natural gas,

00:21:40.180 mostly methane,

00:21:40.900 or mostly hydrogen

00:21:41.640 and methane.

00:21:42.840 So this was the accelerator

00:21:44.980 of human development

00:21:46.040 because now we had

00:21:47.780 an energy source

00:21:48.740 that could do useful work

00:21:49.840 for us,

00:21:51.020 and humans didn't have

00:21:52.340 to labor and toil

00:21:53.880 ourselves

00:21:54.900 or with a plow animal

00:21:56.780 of some kind.

00:21:57.160 Yeah, I think Bjorn Lawberg

00:21:58.780 has estimated

00:21:59.460 that each of us

00:22:00.320 are served

00:22:00.880 by the equivalent

00:22:01.760 of 40 servants.

00:22:04.180 At least.

00:22:05.120 In the rich world.

00:22:06.040 Yeah, in the rich world.

00:22:06.860 So think about density.

00:22:09.320 We've gone from that.

00:22:10.240 Coal is denser

00:22:11.160 by weight.

00:22:12.720 Oil,

00:22:13.780 denser still.

00:22:14.600 Natural gas,

00:22:15.500 by weight,

00:22:15.940 denser still.

00:22:16.840 And then

00:22:17.660 the magic uranium

00:22:19.380 and thorium,

00:22:20.440 radioactive elements

00:22:22.840 come along

00:22:23.600 and they have

00:22:24.640 a density

00:22:25.220 per unit weight

00:22:26.620 a million times more

00:22:28.260 than wood.

00:22:30.120 Right.

00:22:30.660 A million.

00:22:31.240 A million times.

00:22:32.040 A million times.

00:22:33.020 Yeah.

00:22:33.280 So all a nuclear reactor

00:22:36.060 does when you put,

00:22:37.980 I say all,

00:22:39.880 you put little uranium pellets

00:22:41.600 that are about

00:22:41.880 a centimeter tall,

00:22:43.080 I held them,

00:22:44.780 you know,

00:22:45.160 that wide,

00:22:46.680 stuff them

00:22:47.080 into these fuel rods,

00:22:48.880 you activate them,

00:22:51.360 basically you split

00:22:52.260 those things,

00:22:52.900 fission,

00:22:54.040 and that creates

00:22:54.500 a bunch of heat.

00:22:55.560 And those are sitting

00:22:56.320 in a pool of water,

00:22:58.740 the water starts to boil,

00:23:00.060 make steam,

00:23:00.740 turn a turbine,

00:23:01.240 run a generator.

00:23:01.960 Right.

00:23:02.380 It's just a different

00:23:03.080 source of heat

00:23:03.660 than burning coal

00:23:04.460 or burning natural gas

00:23:06.020 or burning oil

00:23:06.560 to make electricity.

00:23:07.560 Different source of heat.

00:23:08.740 And by the way,

00:23:09.380 the sun at the towers,

00:23:10.460 that's heat too.

00:23:11.180 All that's doing

00:23:11.720 is boiling water

00:23:12.960 with a bunch of mirrors.

00:23:14.880 So along comes

00:23:16.160 uranium and thorium

00:23:17.040 and nuclear

00:23:17.680 and this changes things.

00:23:21.360 We can do

00:23:21.920 a tremendous amount

00:23:22.920 of work

00:23:23.300 let me give,

00:23:24.480 so I'll give

00:23:24.980 the listeners

00:23:26.160 a feel for that density.

00:23:27.520 In that little

00:23:27.980 uranium pellet,

00:23:29.340 there's enough energy

00:23:30.620 contained in there

00:23:31.680 to the equivalent energy

00:23:34.380 to drive my car

00:23:35.580 from New York

00:23:36.420 to LA

00:23:37.560 back to Dallas.

00:23:39.560 One pellet.

00:23:41.140 Think of the

00:23:41.840 gasoline

00:23:42.740 that would take

00:23:43.480 a lot

00:23:44.600 and gasoline

00:23:45.600 is very dense.

00:23:46.960 Think of,

00:23:47.360 so you start

00:23:48.440 to extrapolate,

00:23:50.160 this is the

00:23:50.620 energy density.

00:23:53.120 Certain forms

00:23:53.940 of energy

00:23:54.240 just won

00:23:54.880 the physics game.

00:23:56.840 Uranium

00:23:57.320 and natural gas

00:23:58.060 basically.

00:23:59.060 Yeah,

00:23:59.240 well,

00:23:59.400 when you're

00:23:59.720 using vehicles,

00:24:00.540 they have to

00:24:00.960 transport themselves.

00:24:02.160 So anything

00:24:03.040 that's energy dense

00:24:04.780 means that

00:24:06.060 there's much less

00:24:06.940 that isn't useful

00:24:08.200 to transport.

00:24:09.140 Yeah.

00:24:10.360 It's interesting too

00:24:11.480 on the nuclear side

00:24:12.860 that we should

00:24:13.340 just take a small

00:24:14.160 detour here

00:24:14.700 before going back

00:24:15.460 to the grid.

00:24:16.420 Well,

00:24:17.140 one of the things

00:24:17.920 that really stymies me

00:24:19.320 and this is why

00:24:19.940 it's also necessary

00:24:20.860 to think about

00:24:21.580 the story

00:24:22.260 that's being told

00:24:23.100 about such things

00:24:23.980 is that

00:24:24.440 the banner

00:24:26.620 of war

00:24:27.940 that's flown

00:24:28.800 by the Greens

00:24:29.640 is the

00:24:30.760 carbon dioxide

00:24:31.940 apocalypse narrative.

00:24:34.140 But the best

00:24:35.800 solution to that

00:24:36.720 is clearly

00:24:37.500 nuclear.

00:24:38.380 Clearly.

00:24:39.440 And France

00:24:39.960 has demonstrated

00:24:40.600 that like no other

00:24:41.460 country,

00:24:41.880 I would say.

00:24:43.060 And because

00:24:44.480 nuclear produces

00:24:45.500 zero carbon dioxide.

00:24:47.400 So if that's

00:24:47.900 the enemy,

00:24:48.500 then why would

00:24:49.740 you do anything

00:24:50.300 other than nuclear?

00:24:51.360 But the Greens,

00:24:52.780 as they're doing

00:24:53.680 in Spain,

00:24:54.260 as they already

00:24:54.840 have done in Germany,

00:24:56.100 they're anti-nuclear,

00:24:57.480 which indicates

00:24:58.260 more strongly

00:24:58.880 than anything else

00:24:59.780 that the story

00:25:00.520 is not about

00:25:01.900 carbon dioxide pollution.

00:25:03.760 It's about

00:25:04.100 something else.

00:25:04.980 Now,

00:25:05.480 we can talk

00:25:06.120 a little later

00:25:06.620 about what it

00:25:07.300 might be about,

00:25:08.400 but it's certainly

00:25:09.020 not pro-industry.

00:25:10.840 And the case

00:25:11.640 you just laid out

00:25:12.520 indicates that,

00:25:13.380 well,

00:25:14.840 the Industrial

00:25:15.420 Revolution,

00:25:16.940 a billion,

00:25:17.640 seven billion

00:25:18.460 of the world's

00:25:19.140 people rest

00:25:20.420 on the shoulders

00:25:20.980 of the Industrial

00:25:21.720 Revolution.

00:25:22.720 And that

00:25:23.260 revolution itself

00:25:24.460 is a function

00:25:25.120 of energy density

00:25:26.260 and reliability.

00:25:27.300 It is.

00:25:27.720 Right.

00:25:28.020 So that's a

00:25:28.560 first principle story.

00:25:29.800 That's a first principle.

00:25:30.680 Energy underpins

00:25:32.420 healthy economies

00:25:33.300 and,

00:25:34.980 and we'll come

00:25:35.480 to this,

00:25:35.940 healthy economies

00:25:36.840 can afford

00:25:38.580 to invest

00:25:39.460 in the environment.

00:25:40.240 Yes,

00:25:40.620 right.

00:25:40.840 This is something

00:25:41.560 Lomberg has

00:25:42.240 talked a lot

00:25:42.900 about,

00:25:43.260 right?

00:25:43.460 You get people

00:25:44.100 up above

00:25:44.620 $5,000 a year

00:25:45.900 GDP,

00:25:46.820 they take a

00:25:47.360 long-term view

00:25:47.980 of the future

00:25:48.560 because they're

00:25:49.140 not scrabbling

00:25:49.880 around in the mud

00:25:50.520 wondering where

00:25:51.320 lunch is coming

00:25:52.260 from.

00:25:52.800 Yes.

00:25:53.220 Right.

00:25:53.620 Right.

00:25:54.000 So isn't that

00:25:54.480 cool?

00:25:54.880 It's such a,

00:25:55.480 that's such an

00:25:56.100 optimistic observation.

00:25:57.120 Oh,

00:25:57.320 it's incredible.

00:25:57.840 Because if you

00:25:59.040 understand that,

00:26:00.100 then you understand

00:26:00.980 that the proper

00:26:02.200 way forward

00:26:02.920 to a sustainable

00:26:04.740 future,

00:26:05.680 which is

00:26:06.160 hypothetically

00:26:07.060 the goal,

00:26:07.620 is to eradicate

00:26:09.320 impoverishment.

00:26:10.680 Correct.

00:26:11.180 Right?

00:26:11.520 So that's great.

00:26:12.760 You'd think the

00:26:13.260 left would jump

00:26:14.060 on that.

00:26:15.000 Yeah,

00:26:15.380 we should talk

00:26:16.360 about some

00:26:17.080 of those things

00:26:17.740 and I've probably

00:26:18.720 been talking

00:26:19.240 about that

00:26:19.620 little triangle

00:26:20.100 for 25 years.

00:26:21.680 Energy,

00:26:22.400 the,

00:26:22.720 you know,

00:26:23.260 energy,

00:26:24.040 the economy,

00:26:24.640 the environment,

00:26:25.580 and all those

00:26:26.080 investments.

00:26:26.680 The cleanest air

00:26:27.500 in the world,

00:26:28.540 not talking about

00:26:29.140 atmosphere,

00:26:29.700 but the stuff

00:26:30.180 we breathe,

00:26:31.420 particulate matter

00:26:31.980 2.5,

00:26:33.280 is where it's rich.

00:26:34.720 Right.

00:26:35.300 The worst air

00:26:36.100 in the world

00:26:36.540 is where it's poor.

00:26:37.780 Right.

00:26:38.080 They just can't

00:26:38.720 afford to clean

00:26:40.140 it up.

00:26:41.100 So this is a

00:26:41.780 fundamental,

00:26:42.820 and it goes

00:26:43.400 that direction,

00:26:44.200 energy,

00:26:44.880 the economy,

00:26:45.400 the environment.

00:26:46.500 Right.

00:26:47.140 And ironically,

00:26:48.820 kind of an

00:26:49.760 important point

00:26:51.120 here,

00:26:51.980 if you want

00:26:52.700 to clean

00:26:55.100 up the

00:26:55.440 atmosphere

00:26:55.880 emissions,

00:26:57.040 as well as

00:26:57.860 the land,

00:26:58.460 the air,

00:26:58.600 and the water,

00:26:59.420 you have to

00:26:59.780 accelerate

00:27:00.520 economic development.

00:27:02.580 You have to

00:27:02.920 accelerate human

00:27:03.760 flourishing.

00:27:04.520 Yes.

00:27:04.940 Not push it

00:27:06.660 down.

00:27:07.120 Right.

00:27:07.280 You should

00:27:07.740 say that

00:27:08.180 again,

00:27:08.700 and we

00:27:09.000 know this

00:27:09.400 is right.

00:27:09.800 We can

00:27:10.000 see what's

00:27:10.400 happening in

00:27:10.840 Europe,

00:27:11.160 because as

00:27:12.020 Germany has 0.86

00:27:12.740 rampaged down 1.00

00:27:15.120 the idiot 1.00

00:27:15.680 green road, 1.00

00:27:17.360 their power

00:27:17.900 has become

00:27:18.380 more expensive,

00:27:19.480 more unreliable,

00:27:20.340 and dirtier.

00:27:21.540 Right?

00:27:22.020 They're failing

00:27:22.920 on their

00:27:24.500 own marker

00:27:25.480 of success,

00:27:26.660 as well as

00:27:27.720 failing on the

00:27:28.540 economic front.

00:27:29.240 If you're a 0.88

00:27:30.260 degrowth advocate 0.99

00:27:31.200 for whatever

00:27:31.780 reasons you

00:27:32.360 might be,

00:27:32.960 that seems

00:27:33.500 like success,

00:27:34.340 but it's

00:27:34.660 just rebranded

00:27:35.640 failure.

00:27:36.200 We want to

00:27:36.820 reiterate this

00:27:37.460 point so

00:27:37.880 everyone

00:27:38.240 understands.

00:27:39.240 If you

00:27:39.760 actually care

00:27:40.660 about the

00:27:41.040 environment,

00:27:41.860 you want to

00:27:43.320 do everything

00:27:43.920 you possibly

00:27:44.640 can to put

00:27:45.800 people in a

00:27:46.320 situation where

00:27:46.980 they can take

00:27:47.440 a long-term

00:27:48.320 view and take

00:27:49.560 care of

00:27:49.840 everything that's

00:27:50.400 around them.

00:27:50.860 They can't do

00:27:51.500 that when

00:27:51.840 they're scrabbling

00:27:52.560 around in

00:27:53.440 poverty.

00:27:53.840 And it's

00:27:56.780 not just the

00:27:57.440 billion who

00:27:57.980 are in

00:27:58.460 extreme poverty.

00:27:59.780 Let's call

00:28:00.200 them the

00:28:00.600 emerging world.

00:28:01.660 It's the

00:28:02.100 next four to

00:28:02.740 five billion

00:28:03.200 people that

00:28:04.300 have intermittent

00:28:05.100 energy.

00:28:06.780 Their power

00:28:07.100 comes and

00:28:07.540 goes.

00:28:08.300 Their fuels

00:28:08.840 vary and are

00:28:10.060 not reliable

00:28:10.700 to them.

00:28:11.800 So it's this

00:28:12.360 whole three to

00:28:14.920 four billion

00:28:15.340 people kind

00:28:16.300 of emerging,

00:28:17.400 another three

00:28:18.420 to four billion

00:28:19.200 developing,

00:28:21.360 and 1.4

00:28:22.320 billion developed.

00:28:23.880 And that's

00:28:24.700 an energy

00:28:25.160 transition

00:28:25.880 hierarchy.

00:28:26.600 That's an

00:28:27.000 energy transition

00:28:27.760 hierarchy.

00:28:28.800 That's a

00:28:29.780 global health

00:28:30.880 hierarchy.

00:28:31.640 That's an

00:28:32.200 access to

00:28:32.760 food hierarchy.

00:28:33.700 That's a

00:28:34.100 clean water

00:28:34.580 hierarchy.

00:28:35.540 That's a

00:28:36.060 clean soil

00:28:36.620 hierarchy.

00:28:37.060 That's a

00:28:37.400 clean air

00:28:37.820 hierarchy.

00:28:38.100 Opportunity for

00:28:38.880 your children

00:28:39.520 hierarchy.

00:28:40.480 It's everything.

00:28:41.340 Right.

00:28:41.980 And so if

00:28:43.360 you could

00:28:43.680 picture the

00:28:45.920 average of the

00:28:46.620 wealthy world,

00:28:49.140 1.3 billion

00:28:49.960 of us,

00:28:50.460 consume about

00:28:51.160 50 megawatt

00:28:52.060 hours.

00:28:53.080 And we

00:28:54.260 make about

00:28:54.660 $50,000

00:28:55.420 per person.

00:28:57.040 50 megawatt

00:28:57.980 hours per

00:28:58.560 capita,

00:28:59.620 $50,000

00:29:00.320 per capita.

00:29:01.340 That's the

00:29:01.900 average of the

00:29:02.640 wealthy world

00:29:03.260 annually.

00:29:05.280 The U.S.

00:29:05.640 is higher

00:29:05.940 than that.

00:29:06.700 Okay.

00:29:07.840 50-50.

00:29:08.640 That's kind

00:29:09.120 of convenient.

00:29:09.580 At the end

00:29:11.380 of every year,

00:29:12.000 I tear apart a

00:29:12.640 bunch of data

00:29:13.080 for several

00:29:13.540 weeks.

00:29:13.960 It's my fun.

00:29:15.220 And so I

00:29:15.600 kind of was

00:29:16.500 working on

00:29:17.340 population data,

00:29:19.040 economic data,

00:29:19.660 and energy data

00:29:20.240 at the end of

00:29:20.760 last year.

00:29:21.360 And this

00:29:22.420 is cool.

00:29:23.500 Conveniently

00:29:24.000 cool.

00:29:24.340 50-50.

00:29:25.100 Yep.

00:29:25.460 All right.

00:29:25.960 Sticks in your 0.99

00:29:26.480 head.

00:29:27.420 50-50.

00:29:29.060 7 billion other

00:29:30.200 people in the

00:29:30.800 world are below

00:29:31.720 that.

00:29:33.260 Some way

00:29:34.100 below it.

00:29:35.880 Now, it's not,

00:29:37.320 it's not,

00:29:37.860 well, there's a

00:29:38.240 bunch of folks

00:29:38.800 here, and then

00:29:39.400 there's some here,

00:29:39.940 and then here.

00:29:40.300 It's a complete

00:29:41.020 continuum.

00:29:42.140 All right.

00:29:42.480 But for convenience

00:29:43.880 sake, there's

00:29:44.740 4 billion people

00:29:46.040 emerging.

00:29:48.500 You know, we

00:29:49.460 have 50

00:29:50.020 megawatt hours,

00:29:50.840 they have five

00:29:51.660 or three or

00:29:52.860 one.

00:29:54.040 And proportionally

00:29:55.660 about $1,000 to

00:29:56.260 $5,000 per

00:29:57.700 capita.

00:29:58.840 Right.

00:29:59.500 Nothing.

00:30:00.040 Right.

00:30:00.900 Think about

00:30:01.600 that.

00:30:02.360 That's a couple

00:30:02.920 cups of Starbucks

00:30:03.800 or something a

00:30:04.800 day.

00:30:04.960 Yep.

00:30:05.440 Yep.

00:30:05.640 And then as you

00:30:06.680 come up through

00:30:07.140 that, there's the

00:30:07.820 developing world,

00:30:10.180 and then the

00:30:10.380 developed world.

00:30:10.860 lumped all the

00:30:12.380 7 billion people,

00:30:13.420 and they're stuck.

00:30:14.900 They're kind of

00:30:15.660 stuck here.

00:30:16.400 They haven't moved

00:30:17.980 much.

00:30:18.960 They're getting a

00:30:19.860 little bit more.

00:30:21.480 While the wealthy

00:30:22.480 world, we consume

00:30:23.320 more energy, and

00:30:24.800 we're getting a lot

00:30:25.440 wealthier.

00:30:26.280 Now, we're

00:30:27.560 consuming less

00:30:28.720 energy per unit

00:30:29.420 wealth, which is

00:30:30.200 cool.

00:30:30.580 That curve is

00:30:31.260 flattening.

00:30:31.640 It's really cool.

00:30:32.800 Yeah, that's great.

00:30:33.840 In fact, there's a

00:30:35.280 lot of neat.

00:30:35.560 That's the pattern of

00:30:35.980 real economic

00:30:36.620 development.

00:30:37.020 It's awesome.

00:30:37.460 More for less.

00:30:38.560 It's awesome.

00:30:39.320 Efficiency.

00:30:39.800 Well, that's also

00:30:41.540 an indicator of the

00:30:42.500 utility of pursuing

00:30:44.040 abundance, because it

00:30:45.540 turns out that if you

00:30:46.400 pursue abundance

00:30:47.180 intelligently, you

00:30:49.200 produce an innovative

00:30:50.900 environment that

00:30:52.220 allows us to

00:30:53.220 extract far more

00:30:54.140 from less.

00:30:55.140 Yes.

00:30:55.360 Right.

00:30:55.740 Yeah.

00:30:56.480 Yeah.

00:30:57.720 Yeah, you plateau.

00:30:59.120 And some of it is,

00:31:00.700 well, you don't need

00:31:01.320 any more stuff.

00:31:02.480 There's that reality.

00:31:04.020 But we're making

00:31:04.760 better things, more

00:31:07.500 efficient things.

00:31:08.220 There's a rebound

00:31:09.820 effect.

00:31:10.620 An economist back in

00:31:11.640 the 1800s, Jevons,

00:31:13.340 showed, well, if you

00:31:15.120 get a really nice,

00:31:16.660 efficient, let's call

00:31:18.220 it a refrigerator, and

00:31:20.020 you're using a lot less

00:31:20.880 energy and it doesn't

00:31:21.620 cost as much, you're

00:31:22.520 going to get two.

00:31:23.400 Right, right.

00:31:24.160 And we do.

00:31:24.960 Right.

00:31:25.280 Two cars, two TVs,

00:31:28.160 20 pair of blue jeans.

00:31:29.620 I'm literally not

00:31:30.480 exaggerating.

00:31:31.460 Instead of, I just need

00:31:32.720 two or three.

00:31:33.300 You know, the C40

00:31:34.120 consortium, the green

00:31:35.560 advocates on the

00:31:36.760 municipal side, have

00:31:38.420 posited that in order

00:31:39.560 for us to reach net

00:31:40.520 zero effectively, there's

00:31:41.860 40 of the world's

00:31:42.660 biggest cities are part

00:31:43.520 of this consortium.

00:31:44.480 Yeah.

00:31:44.760 We're only going to be

00:31:45.520 allowed three articles of

00:31:46.600 clothing a year.

00:31:47.720 Yeah.

00:31:48.100 Right.

00:31:48.360 95% reduction in

00:31:49.940 automobile ownership,

00:31:51.360 too, because you don't

00:31:52.120 need a car to do

00:31:53.140 whatever the hell you're 0.54

00:31:54.120 doing.

00:31:54.660 Yeah.

00:31:55.180 Right, right.

00:31:56.100 That's a vision of

00:31:57.220 scarcity.

00:31:58.220 Yes.

00:31:58.280 Your point fundamentally

00:31:59.720 is that the pursuit of

00:32:01.500 scarcity will exacerbate

00:32:03.480 environmental catastrophe.

00:32:04.800 It does.

00:32:05.300 Yeah.

00:32:05.640 It does.

00:32:07.140 Yes, it does.

00:32:09.180 And the removal of

00:32:10.980 choice and basic human

00:32:13.540 freedoms and liberties.

00:32:14.620 And opportunity and the

00:32:16.360 ability to live.

00:32:17.460 Let's kind of set the

00:32:19.120 idea that we could tell

00:32:20.220 people what they can do

00:32:21.420 aside for a second, even

00:32:23.320 in places that tell people

00:32:24.340 what they can do.

00:32:25.060 I see behind me the

00:32:27.980 Soviet Union post.

00:32:29.540 I went there in 82 for

00:32:31.480 three weeks when it was

00:32:33.060 still the Soviet Union.

00:32:34.160 The Cold War was on.

00:32:35.140 We were behind the

00:32:35.640 Iron Curtain and I was

00:32:36.640 out of college and it

00:32:38.380 left a huge impression on

00:32:39.480 me.

00:32:39.640 I saw what it was like to

00:32:40.900 live without liberty.

00:32:43.320 In a command economy.

00:32:44.880 It was very intense.

00:32:47.420 And I went out when I

00:32:48.840 shouldn't at night from

00:32:50.780 hotels and met with young

00:32:52.060 people my age, 22, 23,

00:32:54.160 invincible.

00:32:56.460 I'll never erase.

00:32:57.640 These are embedded

00:32:59.080 forever.

00:32:59.560 These are memories that

00:33:00.340 are embedded forever of

00:33:01.380 the look in young people's 0.99

00:33:03.000 eyes who are now in their

00:33:04.660 60s if they're still here.

00:33:06.700 So what that system does,

00:33:08.000 it doesn't work.

00:33:09.200 You can't tell people that.

00:33:10.900 Spain's going to make it 0.98

00:33:11.560 work.

00:33:12.880 How's that working?

00:33:13.720 Yeah.

00:33:13.960 We will eventually come

00:33:14.940 back there.

00:33:16.020 But getting back kind of

00:33:18.800 this dialogue, yeah, energy,

00:33:21.120 economies, and that gives

00:33:23.620 you the wherewithal to

00:33:24.520 invest in cleaning up

00:33:25.860 environments.

00:33:26.300 And we see that in all

00:33:28.280 sorts of different ways.

00:33:29.340 Right.

00:33:29.600 And that final 50, 50, 50,

00:33:31.940 50, that's the bottom half

00:33:33.320 of the world?

00:33:34.060 Well, no.

00:33:34.920 Oh, okay.

00:33:36.560 It's, so you say, okay,

00:33:40.240 here we are with this

00:33:41.260 continuum and there's the

00:33:42.800 50, 50.

00:33:43.380 And I ask myself the

00:33:45.100 question, why are we

00:33:46.660 considering light bulbs and

00:33:47.980 mud huts, which I've done,

00:33:50.640 electrified?

00:33:51.280 You know, that, the world

00:33:53.260 organizations would say,

00:33:54.160 well, that's electrified.

00:33:55.400 No, no, that's a light bulb

00:33:56.940 and a mud hut.

00:33:57.600 Right.

00:33:58.380 And it's more than they had.

00:33:59.880 They can read at night.

00:34:00.980 Yeah, yeah.

00:34:01.800 Et cetera.

00:34:02.340 It's a start.

00:34:04.040 If we had a light bulb and a

00:34:05.200 mud hut here, we'd call it a

00:34:06.620 brownout, Jordan.

00:34:07.460 It's, we would be in a brownout

00:34:09.540 situation.

00:34:10.340 We'd like one lamp.

00:34:11.760 Mm-hmm.

00:34:12.040 So, what would it take

00:34:13.560 really for, to lift 7

00:34:17.420 billion people in various

00:34:18.660 stages to 50 megawatts and

00:34:20.840 hours and 50,000 bucks?

00:34:22.940 So, I ran the numbers.

00:34:24.060 Mm-hmm.

00:34:24.580 And then by when?

00:34:26.360 Mm-hmm.

00:34:26.640 So, it turns out the world

00:34:28.860 today, all in, let's call it

00:34:30.740 primary energy consumption,

00:34:32.140 and these are the fundamental

00:34:33.020 inputs we've been talking

00:34:35.100 about, biomass, coal, oil,

00:34:38.380 natural gas, nuclear, solar,

00:34:40.340 wind, hydro, big dams, and

00:34:43.920 waves and tides, potentially

00:34:45.180 all other, this little

00:34:45.980 teeny thing today.

00:34:47.320 So, those are the, these are

00:34:48.320 what come into the system.

00:34:49.740 I didn't say electricity.

00:34:51.580 You have to make electricity.

00:34:53.400 Mm-hmm.

00:34:54.100 Electricity is not primary

00:34:55.100 energy.

00:34:55.820 We make it.

00:34:56.820 So, the things that make

00:34:57.880 electricity, if you look

00:35:01.020 across the world today, all

00:35:03.440 in, we consume about 620

00:35:06.240 exajoules of energy.

00:35:08.360 That means nothing to

00:35:09.240 anybody.

00:35:09.560 What's an exajoule?

00:35:11.640 It's a big number.

00:35:13.700 Okay.

00:35:14.480 620 exajoules powers 8.3

00:35:18.500 billion people to varying

00:35:20.540 levels.

00:35:22.100 Just take it as 620

00:35:23.820 something, some unit, to

00:35:26.400 lift everybody up to 50-50,

00:35:28.300 would take almost three times

00:35:29.960 that.

00:35:30.800 Mm-hmm.

00:35:31.060 Almost 1,800 exajoules.

00:35:34.000 Mm-hmm.

00:35:34.840 For the oil and gas people,

00:35:36.280 that's about 1,800 trillion

00:35:37.500 cubic feet of gas a year,

00:35:38.700 equivalent, other units of

00:35:40.820 energy measurement that are

00:35:42.000 used.

00:35:42.980 Tripling, though.

00:35:44.100 So, 3x.

00:35:45.340 Now, that's not scarcity.

00:35:48.080 That's not saying, hey, we're

00:35:50.160 running out.

00:35:51.440 Everybody's got to conserve.

00:35:52.740 You can only have one pair of

00:35:53.940 shoes and two pair of clothing.

00:35:55.420 No, no.

00:35:55.740 That's saying, we've got to find

00:35:58.020 out how to make triple our

00:35:59.680 energy, our primary energy in

00:36:01.100 the world.

00:36:01.440 So, is it there?

00:36:03.740 Some worry about that.

00:36:05.580 Well, yes.

00:36:07.400 The answer is, there's a lot of

00:36:09.200 energy in the world.

00:36:10.720 It's in a variety of forms.

00:36:13.320 But the density, here's where

00:36:14.920 density comes back in.

00:36:16.680 If I'm going to make another

00:36:18.240 1,200 exajoules or up to 1,800,

00:36:20.840 I've got to use the densest forms

00:36:22.600 of energy.

00:36:23.900 That little uranium pellet,

00:36:26.140 uranium oxides, thorium,

00:36:27.880 another radioactive element.

00:36:29.620 These are both fission inputs.

00:36:32.100 And in the next period of time,

00:36:34.780 we're not that far away from

00:36:36.360 fusion working.

00:36:38.180 Not commercial yet, but fusion.

00:36:39.920 That's hydrogen.

00:36:41.380 It's a pretty common thing.

00:36:43.880 So, we've got to go, we've got

00:36:46.260 to get our heads around this

00:36:47.300 idea that to literally lift the

00:36:49.520 world out of poverty and all the

00:36:51.100 good things that come from that,

00:36:52.560 we've got to go dense, dense,

00:36:54.840 dense.

00:36:55.760 You're not going to be doing it

00:36:56.780 with low-density forms of energy.

00:36:59.160 There'll be good pieces of that

00:37:01.160 portfolio, the optionality in

00:37:04.280 energy.

00:37:04.940 I don't mind solar and wind

00:37:06.020 where it's sunny and windy.

00:37:07.820 You've got a lot of sun here.

00:37:09.380 Use it in places that make sense.

00:37:11.940 It's a really, a very efficient

00:37:13.940 use of the sun when you've got

00:37:15.240 great sun.

00:37:16.820 You're in lower latitudes.

00:37:18.800 You don't have many clouds.

00:37:20.000 Winter doesn't happen much.

00:37:21.620 Da-da-da-da. 0.81

00:37:22.400 That's a pretty good use of sun,

00:37:24.960 and that use is called

00:37:26.440 capacity factor.

00:37:28.020 So, if I've got 100 units of sun

00:37:29.960 and I can make it generate 30

00:37:31.740 units throughout the year,

00:37:33.560 that's a 30% capacity factor,

00:37:35.260 and that's pretty good for solar.

00:37:37.260 Nuclear, 90% or more capacity

00:37:40.880 factor.

00:37:41.540 Nuclear is always on.

00:37:42.460 Okay, so let's talk about

00:37:43.640 nuclear and scarcity as well.

00:37:45.840 I mean, okay, so what are the

00:37:48.560 objections to walking, running

00:37:51.600 down this road, let's say?

00:37:53.000 Well, you know, it's pretty

00:37:54.900 obvious that energy is

00:37:56.860 harnessed to serve the poor.

00:37:58.420 I think that's incontrovertible.

00:38:00.900 The mere fact that there was

00:38:02.400 1 billion people and now

00:38:03.480 there's 8 billion shows how

00:38:05.560 useful energy is.

00:38:07.440 And the immensely high standard

00:38:09.620 of living, there are no

00:38:11.200 energy poor rich countries.

00:38:13.500 That's right.

00:38:13.960 Okay, so now the next issue is

00:38:16.120 going to be...

00:38:16.640 There's some energy poor people

00:38:17.880 in rich countries.

00:38:18.900 Right.

00:38:19.260 But there are no energy poor

00:38:20.960 countries.

00:38:21.540 Right, right.

00:38:22.520 Okay, so now we face the issue

00:38:25.380 of, well, we can't go to 1800

00:38:28.080 because there aren't enough

00:38:32.180 sources of energy.

00:38:33.040 It's a finite resource.

00:38:34.800 But you deal with that with...

00:38:36.820 Okay, so lay out why no is the

00:38:39.180 answer.

00:38:39.680 So we'll talk about...

00:38:40.820 Okay.

00:38:41.060 And what the intelligent mix is.

00:38:43.160 My suspicions are that the more

00:38:45.860 we rely on nuclear, the more we

00:38:48.460 can shepherd our use of fossil

00:38:50.200 fuels because fossil fuels are

00:38:51.600 used for fertilizer and for

00:38:53.620 plastics and nuclear isn't and

00:38:56.360 for transportation, let's say.

00:38:58.360 So...

00:38:58.560 And a lot of other things.

00:39:01.100 Petrochemicals and all sorts of

00:39:02.260 things that we use fossil fuels

00:39:04.900 for that most people don't know.

00:39:06.240 Right, so is it the case that

00:39:07.220 it's foolish to use fossil fuel in

00:39:09.900 many ways for energy if it's

00:39:11.680 replaceable by nuclear?

00:39:12.860 So let's separate again our

00:39:14.900 thought of electricity and

00:39:16.040 molecules.

00:39:17.060 That's just the simplest form we

00:39:19.840 can do, electricity, molecules.

00:39:21.780 Electricity is used for quite a few

00:39:23.640 things and more things now.

00:39:26.920 We need it.

00:39:28.340 Electrons are very useful things

00:39:29.840 and electric motors are actually

00:39:31.200 very efficient machines.

00:39:32.840 More efficient than a combustion

00:39:34.420 engine, the motor.

00:39:36.780 The battery isn't.

00:39:38.320 The battery is less dense than

00:39:40.720 dung on a per unit weight basis.

00:39:43.460 A battery is a lot less dense than

00:39:44.960 dung.

00:39:46.040 Yes, on a weight basis.

00:39:48.140 That's why it takes a thousand

00:39:49.440 pounds of battery to drive a car.

00:39:53.320 Right.

00:39:53.560 A Tesla S is a thousand pound

00:39:55.120 battery pack, 7,000 batteries the

00:39:56.720 size of your cell phone and that

00:39:57.960 under the whole floor bed.

00:40:00.400 It just, it has physics limits.

00:40:03.320 Okay, so as we, but let's do

00:40:06.180 electrons and molecules.

00:40:07.200 We need molecules for a lot of

00:40:08.740 useful things and burning them

00:40:13.440 arguably is maybe not the best

00:40:15.980 use if we had perfect other

00:40:19.580 options for them.

00:40:21.380 Now, I can electrify some things,

00:40:24.940 vehicles, small cars, bigger cars.

00:40:28.980 I can do hybrids for bigger buses.

00:40:31.940 But because there's so much weight

00:40:33.280 in that battery, when I fly here on

00:40:35.160 an airplane, the whole airplane

00:40:37.840 would be a battery.

00:40:38.620 Right, right, right.

00:40:40.040 To get me to go.

00:40:41.220 There's not much to use just flying

00:40:42.980 batteries around.

00:40:44.060 No, it's kind of cool.

00:40:45.120 And it's an electric plane, but it's

00:40:46.400 doing nothing else.

00:40:47.660 Right, right, right.

00:40:48.620 And so, go up that density curve again, I'm

00:40:52.080 putting jet fuel, diesel, in those

00:40:54.960 wings, really dense energy.

00:40:57.440 And that allows me to haul weight in

00:40:59.540 humans and luggage and freight and

00:41:04.680 other things.

00:41:05.440 So, you have to think about the end

00:41:08.160 uses of energy.

00:41:09.120 It's not crazy to burn molecules when

00:41:11.760 they're the only thing that will do

00:41:13.080 that job.

00:41:15.340 The rockets that Elon Musk launches

00:41:16.940 and takes to space aren't flying on

00:41:18.500 batteries.

00:41:19.020 They're on, they're either, those are

00:41:20.980 on LNG, and they're actually on

00:41:22.860 natural gas, but hydrogen too.

00:41:25.300 So, molecules have a great use for

00:41:27.640 some things, natural gas and oil.

00:41:31.360 Electrons have a great use for other

00:41:33.180 things.

00:41:33.620 We should try to get to the point

00:41:35.340 where we're using the right form of

00:41:37.520 energy to do the right job.

00:41:39.760 Nuclear makes electricity.

00:41:42.600 Right.

00:41:43.240 And heat.

00:41:44.780 You make a lot of heat with nuclear.

00:41:47.000 What's its utility potentially for

00:41:48.820 transportation?

00:41:49.600 I mean, we've had nuclear subs for

00:41:51.460 like two generations.

00:41:53.660 Yeah, 60, 70 years.

00:41:54.880 Yeah, four generations, really.

00:41:56.640 My nephew was in third in command, or

00:41:59.500 my cousin, third in command of a

00:42:01.200 nuclear attack sub.

00:42:01.980 I've been on it.

00:42:03.220 It's an incredible little, I didn't

00:42:05.440 get to see it, but the core is not

00:42:07.900 very big.

00:42:08.460 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

00:42:09.260 And you're putting quite a bit of

00:42:12.020 oomph to drive that patented

00:42:14.920 propeller.

00:42:15.400 So, what's the impediment been to

00:42:16.920 small, modular nuclear, given that

00:42:19.020 we've actually had it since, when was

00:42:20.820 the first nuclear submarine produced?

00:42:23.960 I can't remember.

00:42:24.800 Mid-60s?

00:42:25.100 Mid-60s and 60s, somewhere in there.

00:42:26.440 Yeah, yeah.

00:42:26.660 And also aircraft carriers.

00:42:28.500 We've had small reactors for a very

00:42:30.360 long period of time.

00:42:31.140 Yeah, light water.

00:42:32.160 I know people are afraid of nuclear

00:42:33.860 for, well, because of nuclear bombs,

00:42:36.520 and so, fair enough.

00:42:37.420 But the bomb and the nuclear plant

00:42:39.720 aren't the same thing.

00:42:40.560 And I know these new plants, the

00:42:41.880 thorium plants, are radically safe,

00:42:45.780 fundamentally.

00:42:47.020 Yeah.

00:42:48.280 There, when I was young, I was

00:42:53.260 trained to be terrified of nuclear

00:42:55.240 war.

00:42:56.000 Yeah.

00:42:56.380 It was a cold war.

00:42:57.340 I mean, in kindergarten, I got under

00:42:59.640 my desk in drills and hid preparing

00:43:02.320 for a nuclear attack, Jordan.

00:43:04.260 Yeah.

00:43:04.320 Yeah.

00:43:04.360 Because I knew the desk would protect

00:43:05.800 me from a nuclear attack.

00:43:06.340 Yes, of course.

00:43:07.060 Of course.

00:43:07.500 I was safe under the little desk.

00:43:10.580 So, my generation grew up, your

00:43:12.600 generation, I was scared of that. 0.99

00:43:14.220 Oh, definitely.

00:43:15.240 And there's still some reverberation

00:43:17.840 in fear.

00:43:18.520 Fear is extremely powerful.

00:43:20.460 You know this better than I do as

00:43:21.780 a psychologist.

00:43:22.740 It's a powerful motivator.

00:43:25.360 And it inhibits logical thinking

00:43:27.000 sometimes.

00:43:27.820 I mean, the beginning of wisdom is

00:43:28.960 do away with fear.

00:43:30.120 Okay.

00:43:31.560 But that's the fear we were trained

00:43:32.760 with.

00:43:33.420 Young people today haven't had that

00:43:35.000 fear of nuclear baked into them.

00:43:37.120 They've been, they've had climate

00:43:38.400 baked into them.

00:43:38.780 Yes, right.

00:43:39.540 They're terrified of that.

00:43:40.820 And they literally are gutturally

00:43:42.400 terrified of that.

00:43:43.400 They are emotionally, psychologically

00:43:45.600 depressed, don't want to have kids,

00:43:48.360 get married, suicidal.

00:43:49.240 Well, that's a feature, not a bug

00:43:51.260 to stop them from having children. 0.98

00:43:53.660 Bjorn Lomberg, I think, estimated

00:43:55.240 that four, each additional mouth

00:43:57.460 on the planet produces four times

00:43:59.240 as much as it consumes.

00:44:00.960 Yeah.

00:44:01.180 That's the average.

00:44:02.300 Yeah.

00:44:02.700 So, the notion that not having

00:44:04.700 children is good for the planet

00:44:05.940 isn't a very wise notion.

00:44:07.800 Yeah, in some average.

00:44:08.420 Maybe it depends what you do

00:44:09.480 with the children.

00:44:10.220 Productive, in a productive world.

00:44:12.080 Right.

00:44:12.340 If you're, if you aren't allowed

00:44:14.240 to be productive

00:44:14.860 or you don't have the energy

00:44:15.640 to be productive, you know,

00:44:18.100 it depends on where you are

00:44:19.120 on that productivity scale.

00:44:22.240 But, you know, Maslow, Maslow

00:44:24.200 outlined it pretty elegantly,

00:44:25.920 I think, when he looked at the

00:44:27.240 hierarchy from self-actualization,

00:44:29.780 kind of on down through love.

00:44:31.120 But those bottom two tiers,

00:44:33.480 safety, security,

00:44:36.260 these things are made,

00:44:38.340 I know those are addressed

00:44:40.700 by energy and wealth.

00:44:42.860 The fundamental physio,

00:44:44.280 you know, physio things that we need,

00:44:47.120 physical things we need

00:44:47.920 and safety and security,

00:44:49.360 those bottom two tiers

00:44:50.480 in that pyramid,

00:44:51.960 energy and wealth.

00:44:53.280 That lifts people up.

00:44:56.220 So, that's what we're talking about here

00:44:57.600 with seven billion people

00:44:58.720 is the fundamental things

00:45:01.980 that make everybody safer,

00:45:03.480 more secure,

00:45:05.020 and productive.

00:45:05.600 Food in your stomach,

00:45:08.180 some clothes on your back,

00:45:09.280 a shelter,

00:45:10.360 some climate control,

00:45:11.640 perhaps if you're living

00:45:12.540 in a hot place

00:45:13.460 or a cold place,

00:45:15.020 et cetera.

00:45:15.860 Clean water to drink.

00:45:17.380 These are healthcare,

00:45:18.720 education.

00:45:19.560 These are fundamental things.

00:45:21.160 Well, clean water to drink

00:45:22.100 and sufficient food

00:45:23.080 is 95%,

00:45:24.240 oh, plus plumbing.

00:45:26.000 That's 95%

00:45:27.120 of the health problems solved.

00:45:29.140 Big time.

00:45:29.720 Yeah.

00:45:30.200 Big time.

00:45:30.700 That is literally

00:45:31.460 what drives

00:45:32.060 a lot of those things.

00:45:33.540 So, you get to

00:45:35.320 seven billion people,

00:45:36.340 that's a lot of energy

00:45:37.200 and you ask the question,

00:45:38.640 do we have it?

00:45:39.300 Are we running out?

00:45:41.920 We would run out

00:45:43.000 if we were using hay

00:45:44.240 and wood

00:45:45.960 and cutting, you know,

00:45:47.820 biomass and dung.

00:45:49.820 There's not enough of that

00:45:51.240 to do 8.3 billion people

00:45:54.020 and growing.

00:45:55.540 We can talk about population

00:45:56.600 because it's fascinating demographics,

00:45:58.240 but, you know,

00:45:59.020 there's not enough of that.

00:46:00.560 Coal, there's quite a bit of coal

00:46:02.100 still left in the world.

00:46:03.880 Hundreds of years

00:46:04.660 supply in the U.S.

00:46:05.960 Asia has a lot of coal,

00:46:07.460 blah, blah.

00:46:08.700 Yeah.

00:46:09.220 Other impacts of coal

00:46:10.300 from burning it,

00:46:11.900 you know,

00:46:12.540 that has a lot.

00:46:13.460 That's also a solvable

00:46:14.580 technological problem.

00:46:15.220 It's solvable.

00:46:16.200 Yeah.

00:46:16.660 The thing that you have to do,

00:46:18.040 though,

00:46:18.640 you want to say,

00:46:19.700 what's my energy returned

00:46:21.360 on my energy invested?

00:46:23.700 That's a metric,

00:46:24.700 E-R-O-I, it's called.

00:46:26.080 And so,

00:46:26.400 how much energy

00:46:27.020 does it take

00:46:27.680 throughout the whole

00:46:29.240 energy system

00:46:29.980 to get useful energy out?

00:46:32.120 With coal,

00:46:33.780 you're mining it,

00:46:35.060 moving it on trains,

00:46:37.140 barges,

00:46:38.180 trucks,

00:46:38.980 you burn it.

00:46:40.860 And if you're going to get out

00:46:42.300 the SOx and the NOx

00:46:43.760 and the particulates

00:46:44.560 and the mercury

00:46:45.160 and the CO2,

00:46:46.300 each one of those things

00:46:47.460 is a bolt-on system

00:46:49.560 that runs on more energy.

00:46:51.400 Right.

00:46:51.660 So you're lowering

00:46:54.500 your E-R-O-I 0.99

00:46:55.620 the more you clean up

00:46:57.260 that coal.

00:46:58.820 And it's still useful.

00:46:59.860 It still has a decent return,

00:47:01.040 even after all that.

00:47:02.040 But it's expensive

00:47:02.900 because every one

00:47:03.780 of those things

00:47:04.320 isn't just energy,

00:47:05.120 it's money.

00:47:06.900 So now I've taken coal

00:47:08.400 from affordable

00:47:09.220 and reliable

00:47:10.200 to kind of expensive,

00:47:12.340 more expensive

00:47:13.000 and reliable.

00:47:14.460 Right.

00:47:14.860 China doesn't do 1.00

00:47:15.640 all those things.

00:47:17.300 Sometimes their scrubbers

00:47:18.380 are on,

00:47:18.820 sometimes they're off.

00:47:19.620 Depends on what

00:47:21.040 their economy is needing

00:47:22.000 and the cost of electricity.

00:47:23.760 Right, right.

00:47:24.520 We don't do that here.

00:47:26.160 You turn off those here

00:47:27.640 in regulated societies,

00:47:30.320 you know,

00:47:30.580 you get massive fines

00:47:31.840 or go to prison

00:47:32.820 as you should.

00:47:34.020 So that's the nice part

00:47:35.780 about density again.

00:47:37.460 Oil,

00:47:37.920 a little bit less

00:47:38.540 of those scrubbers,

00:47:39.200 natural gas,

00:47:40.080 you don't need any of it.

00:47:41.080 You don't need,

00:47:41.500 you know,

00:47:41.860 CO2 if you want

00:47:42.960 to remove it.

00:47:43.620 But there's a little bit

00:47:45.220 of particulate

00:47:46.200 in natural gas,

00:47:47.220 not much.

00:47:47.760 Not much mercury,

00:47:50.200 a little sulfur.

00:47:50.920 Sometimes there's sulfur gases

00:47:51.960 to grow.

00:47:52.300 But a lot less work

00:47:53.280 needs to be done

00:47:53.900 to make natural gas clean.

00:47:57.740 And we clean it up

00:47:58.520 and we cook with it

00:47:59.920 in our homes.

00:48:01.100 You know,

00:48:01.300 it's not,

00:48:02.240 I don't worry about that.

00:48:03.320 There's some studies

00:48:03.880 that say you should.

00:48:04.820 I'm not.

00:48:05.780 So that's the beauty

00:48:06.740 of energy density again.

00:48:07.920 Depends on what else

00:48:08.640 you have to worry about.

00:48:09.980 Depends on what you have

00:48:10.760 to worry about.

00:48:11.080 Burning dung,

00:48:11.680 natural gas

00:48:12.340 is not going to be

00:48:12.980 that much of a problem.

00:48:13.400 Looking pretty good.

00:48:14.340 Yeah.

00:48:14.900 Looking pretty good

00:48:15.860 if you're cooking with wood.

00:48:16.920 The LPG

00:48:18.100 is saving so many lives

00:48:19.800 in this world,

00:48:20.360 replacing wood

00:48:22.420 and charcoal

00:48:23.140 and huts and homes.

00:48:24.620 And I'm not talking

00:48:25.800 a few lives.

00:48:27.580 There are 3 billion people

00:48:28.720 and 2.8 billion people

00:48:29.960 in the world today

00:48:30.420 that cook indoors

00:48:31.140 with solid biomass.

00:48:32.880 Right.

00:48:33.620 And 3 million of them

00:48:35.140 die every year still,

00:48:36.160 Jordan. 0.92

00:48:36.520 3 million people

00:48:37.520 from breathing

00:48:38.340 indoor smoke

00:48:39.600 particulates.

00:48:40.560 Right.

00:48:40.980 The major pollution problem.

00:48:43.020 That's it.

00:48:43.980 In cities outdoor,

00:48:44.960 this is just indoor.

00:48:45.660 There's another two,

00:48:47.260 at least that many outdoors

00:48:48.460 breathing indoor

00:48:49.240 particulate

00:48:50.340 pollution,

00:48:53.000 real pollution.

00:48:54.040 So you replace that

00:48:54.840 with an LPG tank,

00:48:57.280 liquid propane,

00:48:59.060 you save lives,

00:49:00.280 instantly save lives,

00:49:01.340 or an induction cooktop,

00:49:03.020 something that

00:49:03.640 doesn't have that happening.

00:49:05.580 It's an incredible

00:49:06.880 life-saving

00:49:08.840 technology,

00:49:10.160 if you will.

00:49:10.820 So on the abundance

00:49:12.420 thing,

00:49:12.860 back to that,

00:49:13.580 here we are,

00:49:14.220 there's a lot of

00:49:14.840 natural gas in the world.

00:49:16.480 Okay.

00:49:16.880 A lot.

00:49:18.020 So what does that mean

00:49:18.980 in terms of like

00:49:20.060 supply out into the future?

00:49:22.100 And I know...

00:49:22.980 Hundreds and hundreds of years.

00:49:23.800 Let's add something

00:49:24.580 to that too.

00:49:25.280 Well,

00:49:25.440 and it's complicated

00:49:26.260 because what happens

00:49:27.260 is that

00:49:27.760 if scarcity

00:49:29.620 starts to emerge,

00:49:30.760 the price of the

00:49:31.720 commodity rises

00:49:32.620 and the

00:49:33.300 rising price

00:49:34.840 incentivizes

00:49:35.820 innovative ways

00:49:36.700 of finding more of it.

00:49:37.740 And while fracking

00:49:38.980 is a great example

00:49:39.840 of that,

00:49:40.320 which I'm fracking,

00:49:41.980 the fracking revolution,

00:49:43.160 which is essentially

00:49:44.520 unheralded publicly.

00:49:46.560 Yeah.

00:49:47.080 What propelled the U.S.

00:49:48.680 to energy independence

00:49:49.900 in no time flat.

00:49:51.000 Correct.

00:49:51.320 And there's no reason

00:49:52.200 to assume we're out

00:49:53.140 of those options.

00:49:55.340 No.

00:49:56.320 That's,

00:49:56.920 we're not out of

00:49:57.780 energy options,

00:49:58.780 we're out of ideas

00:49:59.480 sometimes.

00:50:01.240 Yeah,

00:50:01.540 well,

00:50:02.020 price increase,

00:50:03.240 that'll motivate

00:50:03.820 more ideas.

00:50:05.220 Yeah.

00:50:05.320 So in 08,

00:50:06.860 Mr. Obama

00:50:07.680 brought me up

00:50:09.020 to ask me to be

00:50:09.640 Assistant Secretary

00:50:10.260 of Energy

00:50:10.700 under Stephen Chu.

00:50:12.960 08,

00:50:13.560 first term,

00:50:14.280 first month,

00:50:14.820 Obama.

00:50:15.300 And I visited

00:50:15.780 and we talked

00:50:16.580 and they were looking

00:50:17.320 at me doing

00:50:18.060 fossil energy,

00:50:18.920 coal,

00:50:19.180 oil,

00:50:19.420 gas,

00:50:20.520 strategic petroleum

00:50:21.180 reserve and other

00:50:21.800 things.

00:50:22.320 And I spoke

00:50:23.520 with the secretary

00:50:24.160 and this was

00:50:24.960 right as that

00:50:26.180 fracking revolution,

00:50:28.220 evolution really,

00:50:29.220 because I know

00:50:30.040 it's kind of an

00:50:30.720 evolution of technologies,

00:50:32.160 came together.

00:50:33.540 The Barnett Shale

00:50:34.400 really kicked it off

00:50:35.300 in 2001 and 2

00:50:36.480 with George Mitchell,

00:50:37.120 but by 08,

00:50:38.380 we saw the Barnett,

00:50:39.880 the Fayetteville

00:50:40.420 had gotten started,

00:50:41.700 the Haynesville

00:50:42.280 was coming,

00:50:42.960 the Marcellus

00:50:43.540 is just getting

00:50:44.560 started.

00:50:45.020 These are big

00:50:45.600 shale gas basins

00:50:47.160 in the country.

00:50:48.780 And you mean big.

00:50:50.180 Big.

00:50:50.480 They're huge.

00:50:51.260 They're big.

00:50:51.860 Right.

00:50:52.300 And oil followed.

00:50:53.540 More technology.

00:50:55.720 Natural gas

00:50:56.280 is a little molecule.

00:50:57.800 I mean,

00:50:58.460 this is,

00:50:59.420 you'll be interested

00:51:00.120 in this.

00:51:01.400 Why do you have

00:51:01.920 to frack?

00:51:02.580 Why do you have

00:51:03.200 to crack rock?

00:51:04.880 Okay.

00:51:05.540 And here's why.

00:51:06.660 And when you're

00:51:07.120 cracking rock,

00:51:07.740 what you're doing

00:51:08.080 is putting water,

00:51:09.380 which is not very

00:51:10.100 compressible,

00:51:10.900 under a lot of pressure,

00:51:12.860 and then putting it

00:51:14.000 into the ground

00:51:14.640 under pressure

00:51:15.960 and releasing

00:51:16.800 that pressure.

00:51:17.620 And that pressure

00:51:18.280 release cracks rock

00:51:19.460 down there,

00:51:20.840 a couple,

00:51:21.340 you know,

00:51:21.520 five,

00:51:21.860 six,

00:51:22.200 ten thousand feet.

00:51:23.800 Cracks the rock.

00:51:24.740 Makes these little

00:51:25.320 teeny cracks.

00:51:26.360 Why?

00:51:27.540 Well,

00:51:27.820 because the holes

00:51:28.640 where the natural gas

00:51:29.780 is,

00:51:31.780 are,

00:51:32.800 the molecules are,

00:51:35.120 are about,

00:51:36.500 they're so small,

00:51:37.300 they're in the nanometer scale,

00:51:39.220 I could fit

00:51:40.540 about a hundred

00:51:42.040 of those little holes

00:51:43.080 across the width

00:51:44.420 of one human hair.

00:51:46.340 So that's the natural gas

00:51:48.060 pools that far underground.

00:51:49.600 They're not pools at all.

00:51:50.700 They're micro reservoirs.

00:51:52.140 Yeah,

00:51:52.360 there are a hundred

00:51:52.920 of those little teeny pools

00:51:53.900 across one human hair.

00:51:54.940 And so the molecules,

00:51:57.760 it's not easy

00:51:58.220 to get them out of there.

00:51:59.780 Now,

00:52:00.400 so you've got to

00:52:00.940 crack that rock. 0.91

00:52:01.880 You're creating,

00:52:02.480 you've got little teeny rooms

00:52:03.600 and you're creating

00:52:04.320 little pathways,

00:52:05.940 doorways and hallways

00:52:06.860 for them to flow

00:52:07.760 toward a lower pressure area.

00:52:09.780 And that wellbore,

00:52:10.560 when it comes down

00:52:11.240 and goes down

00:52:11.840 and cracks rock

00:52:12.560 and then you open it up,

00:52:13.640 you've created

00:52:14.100 a low pressure pipe

00:52:15.400 and everything wants

00:52:16.680 to go towards low pressure.

00:52:17.940 Like humans,

00:52:18.840 hey,

00:52:19.200 less pressure,

00:52:19.780 give me less pressure,

00:52:20.580 I'm good.

00:52:21.380 I don't like the high pressure.

00:52:22.760 In they go

00:52:23.280 and they start to flow up.

00:52:24.940 So that's why

00:52:26.080 fracking,

00:52:27.660 hydraulic fracturing

00:52:28.720 came about.

00:52:30.160 It had been happening

00:52:31.080 again for five decades.

00:52:33.300 Yeah,

00:52:33.460 well,

00:52:33.680 I grew up in northern Alberta

00:52:34.980 and I never

00:52:35.660 fracking was everywhere.

00:52:38.080 Cracking vertical.

00:52:38.820 Yeah.

00:52:39.100 And then the horizontal wells,

00:52:40.400 they came together.

00:52:41.220 So that changed things here.

00:52:44.500 Our natural gas production

00:52:45.760 in 2007-8

00:52:47.700 from shale,

00:52:49.960 that's the name

00:52:50.720 of these rocks,

00:52:52.040 was about 4%

00:52:55.120 of our natural gas

00:52:56.000 came from shale

00:52:56.680 in 08.

00:52:58.000 Today,

00:52:58.780 70%.

00:52:59.660 Wow.

00:53:00.420 Of all the...

00:53:01.320 That's such a revolution.

00:53:02.800 Since 07.

00:53:04.100 Yeah, right.

00:53:04.920 And oil was essentially

00:53:05.740 nothing from shale

00:53:07.080 and now it's 63%

00:53:09.420 of our oil

00:53:10.520 comes from shale.

00:53:11.440 Wow.

00:53:11.840 Well,

00:53:12.020 there's a great example

00:53:12.960 of technological revolution.

00:53:13.920 Less than two decades.

00:53:14.720 And the oil molecule,

00:53:17.680 it's a big,

00:53:18.300 complicated member,

00:53:19.160 complex carbon hydrogen change.

00:53:21.040 You can't get it

00:53:21.680 out of those little holes

00:53:22.500 very easy.

00:53:23.080 You got to...

00:53:24.060 Technology continue

00:53:24.920 to evolve

00:53:25.520 to allow the Bakken,

00:53:26.880 the Eagle Ford

00:53:27.460 in West Texas,

00:53:28.360 Permian Basin

00:53:29.000 to produce oil.

00:53:30.360 This is revolutionary.

00:53:32.280 Now look,

00:53:32.980 so that's supply.

00:53:35.620 Won't last forever,

00:53:37.560 but this is important.

00:53:40.000 We've been producing

00:53:40.800 those now

00:53:41.460 for 20 years,

00:53:42.760 some of those basins

00:53:43.460 in 10 years.

00:53:45.300 The amount of,

00:53:47.360 total amount of oil

00:53:48.600 and gas

00:53:49.060 in those basins

00:53:50.660 is called

00:53:51.700 the resource.

00:53:53.420 Is it accurately estimated,

00:53:55.160 do you think?

00:53:55.440 It's pretty accurate.

00:53:57.060 My group,

00:53:58.060 my organization

00:53:59.080 did those studies

00:53:59.880 for 20 years

00:54:00.800 and others have too,

00:54:02.080 but we did that resource

00:54:03.440 estimates

00:54:03.800 of all the big shale basins

00:54:05.100 at UT Austin

00:54:05.900 Bureau of Economic Geology.

00:54:08.380 Pretty,

00:54:08.720 you can estimate

00:54:09.480 what's in place.

00:54:11.000 The reserve,

00:54:12.880 and this is where language

00:54:13.720 gets kind of funny,

00:54:15.100 is what you can produce

00:54:16.160 with today's technology

00:54:17.240 at today's price.

00:54:18.940 Price changes,

00:54:20.220 reserves change.

00:54:21.360 Right.

00:54:21.560 It's not people

00:54:22.060 finagling stuff.

00:54:23.100 Sure, sure.

00:54:23.460 You know,

00:54:23.720 I can produce more

00:54:24.440 at a higher price.

00:54:25.680 The price goes down,

00:54:26.940 I can't,

00:54:27.400 so the reserves change.

00:54:28.280 And then you got

00:54:29.700 your production.

00:54:30.720 Of all those tanks,

00:54:32.420 those resources,

00:54:33.560 we've only produced

00:54:34.740 about 5%

00:54:36.500 in those 20 years.

00:54:39.900 There's 95%

00:54:40.900 still down there.

00:54:41.940 So how,

00:54:42.540 do you know how,

00:54:43.200 It's hard to get out.

00:54:44.060 Do you know how

00:54:44.660 the magnitude

00:54:45.920 of those reserves

00:54:47.580 that you're describing

00:54:48.420 compares to reserves

00:54:49.960 like the oil sands

00:54:51.440 in northern Alberta?

00:54:52.100 I do.

00:54:52.660 I do, yeah.

00:54:53.300 Yeah, so all those basins

00:54:56.780 added up in the U.S.

00:54:58.420 is about 500 billion barrels

00:55:01.220 equivalent.

00:55:02.220 That's a lot.

00:55:03.180 Big numbers.

00:55:04.520 The oil sands in Alberta,

00:55:07.220 I don't know those numbers

00:55:08.280 precisely,

00:55:09.140 but they're big numbers too.

00:55:10.620 They're in that range.

00:55:11.980 Yeah, okay.

00:55:12.780 But very hard to get out.

00:55:14.040 Right, right.

00:55:14.480 Completely different technology.

00:55:15.520 Right.

00:55:15.740 Our first film switch.

00:55:16.340 But if the price rises,

00:55:17.660 you could get it out.

00:55:18.500 And if you're allowed

00:55:20.700 and the environmental regulations

00:55:22.500 allow it.

00:55:23.840 Right.

00:55:24.540 Because the cool part about,

00:55:25.960 we featured those

00:55:26.760 in our first film,

00:55:28.040 the stuff at the surface

00:55:28.960 that they're mining,

00:55:30.780 and for your viewer,

00:55:31.880 I mean,

00:55:32.220 these are conventional

00:55:33.660 oil reservoir

00:55:34.260 that's been impacted

00:55:35.720 by surface waters

00:55:36.740 and the oil,

00:55:38.320 all the light stuff

00:55:39.120 came off.

00:55:39.640 So it's really heavy

00:55:41.260 kind of tar-like oil.

00:55:43.060 Right, right, right.

00:55:43.580 So for your listeners,

00:55:44.600 that's what we're

00:55:45.060 talking about here.

00:55:45.640 So you've got to move

00:55:46.520 tar out of rock.

00:55:48.400 Not easy.

00:55:49.360 You can mine it

00:55:50.060 at the surface.

00:55:50.780 That's pretty

00:55:51.180 environmentally destructive,

00:55:52.060 but that's 20%.

00:55:53.400 80% is below the surface

00:55:55.880 and what they do

00:55:56.480 is they drill wells

00:55:57.420 down in

00:55:57.940 and they inject steam

00:55:59.680 at high pressures

00:56:01.160 because when you put

00:56:02.120 heat on tar,

00:56:04.160 it becomes a liquid

00:56:04.900 and kind of a sludge

00:56:06.620 and then they flow

00:56:07.240 this sludge in

00:56:08.100 and they add more

00:56:08.760 natural gas

00:56:09.700 and other things

00:56:10.340 and they make it

00:56:10.860 into an oil again

00:56:11.860 and move it away.

00:56:13.080 So they're literally

00:56:14.060 taking tar

00:56:16.420 or heavy oil sands

00:56:17.740 away that way.

00:56:18.900 Right.

00:56:19.080 It's a huge resource.

00:56:20.340 So the idea

00:56:21.180 that we're going

00:56:21.780 to run out

00:56:22.440 of fossil fuel

00:56:23.320 if we,

00:56:24.100 especially if we

00:56:24.720 shepherd our

00:56:25.360 nuclear resources

00:56:26.180 with some degree

00:56:26.920 of intelligence,

00:56:27.900 that's not a foreseeable

00:56:29.340 future.

00:56:29.800 No, it's not.

00:56:31.180 And here's the biggest,

00:56:32.140 here's kind of the mic

00:56:32.940 drop on it all.

00:56:34.300 Okay.

00:56:36.000 We're,

00:56:36.640 the US and Canada

00:56:38.300 and Argentina

00:56:39.160 are really the only ones

00:56:40.220 producing oil

00:56:41.700 and gas from shale today.

00:56:43.300 We're not the only ones

00:56:44.400 that have it.

00:56:45.100 Right.

00:56:45.780 I know.

00:56:46.060 Well, there's resources

00:56:47.020 in Holland, right?

00:56:48.280 In the Netherlands.

00:56:49.400 Germany, Poland.

00:56:50.780 Yeah.

00:56:51.100 But the big ones,

00:56:53.120 because these are

00:56:53.620 the source rocks,

00:56:54.520 it's the kitchen.

00:56:55.800 This is where the oil

00:56:56.660 was made millions

00:56:58.600 of years ago

00:56:59.360 and then leaked off

00:57:01.300 into these conventional

00:57:02.800 reservoirs with time,

00:57:04.100 heat and pressure

00:57:04.600 and time.

00:57:05.400 Up comes the oil.

00:57:07.080 Those are the source rocks.

00:57:08.200 That's what they're called.

00:57:09.300 Mere de Wiel in French.

00:57:10.540 You know,

00:57:10.720 the mother of oil

00:57:11.300 sits down there.

00:57:12.400 Where you find

00:57:16.140 these conventional

00:57:16.980 oil and gas fields,

00:57:19.400 like we have

00:57:20.140 in the Middle East

00:57:21.000 and Russia

00:57:21.460 and South America,

00:57:23.020 et cetera,

00:57:23.960 there are mature

00:57:25.120 source rocks

00:57:25.760 leaking oil and gas.

00:57:28.040 Some of the most mature

00:57:29.240 and biggest source rocks

00:57:30.220 in the world

00:57:30.660 are in,

00:57:31.440 you guessed it,

00:57:32.140 the Middle East

00:57:32.740 and Russia.

00:57:34.060 They've been

00:57:34.740 quietly testing them,

00:57:37.360 quietly seeing,

00:57:38.680 hey,

00:57:38.940 let's learn that technology.

00:57:40.420 How do we get ready

00:57:41.360 because it's more expensive?

00:57:44.060 Yeah.

00:57:44.420 I'm talking,

00:57:44.920 what I'm describing

00:57:45.500 is more expensive

00:57:46.120 and they still have

00:57:47.080 these conventional reservoirs,

00:57:48.640 a lot of oil

00:57:49.180 and gas in the Middle East,

00:57:50.080 a lot of gas in Russia,

00:57:51.120 some oil.

00:57:51.980 Right.

00:57:52.320 Big basins.

00:57:53.680 Right.

00:57:53.880 So that's backed up

00:57:54.980 by more expensive sources

00:57:56.320 that are much larger.

00:57:57.840 Yes.

00:57:58.580 And they haven't even

00:57:59.220 produced them yet.

00:57:59.780 How much larger?

00:58:00.620 Well,

00:58:00.880 here we've got,

00:58:02.520 we've literally created

00:58:04.620 a production curve

00:58:05.660 that is higher

00:58:06.320 than it was

00:58:06.940 in the 70s.

00:58:08.060 King Hubbard,

00:58:08.960 a famous guy

00:58:09.560 that worked with my dad,

00:58:10.600 Shell,

00:58:11.540 predicted peak oil

00:58:12.400 in the US in 73

00:58:13.520 and he was right

00:58:14.640 until we turned it around

00:58:16.300 with shale

00:58:16.780 and now we're producing

00:58:17.800 more oil

00:58:18.200 than we ever have.

00:58:19.860 So it will be more

00:58:21.140 than they've produced

00:58:21.920 so far

00:58:22.580 in each of those regions

00:58:23.720 at least.

00:58:24.600 Right, right.

00:58:25.540 And remember-

00:58:26.240 Do you think all those stores

00:58:27.040 have been discovered

00:58:27.840 or is that still-

00:58:29.400 They know where their

00:58:30.040 source rocks are.

00:58:31.160 They're quietly testing them.

00:58:32.340 Yeah.

00:58:32.920 Why?

00:58:34.040 And guess who was

00:58:34.700 against fracking?

00:58:35.380 If you chase the money back

00:58:37.060 in the early 2000s,

00:58:40.000 the anti-fracking movement,

00:58:41.420 Yeah.

00:58:41.840 You chase it to Russia

00:58:43.000 and the Middle East

00:58:43.920 and it's not even

00:58:44.600 that hard to track it.

00:58:46.120 Yeah.

00:58:46.880 Surprise, surprise.

00:58:48.020 Sheiks for shale.

00:58:49.300 Yeah.

00:58:49.460 I wrote a piece about that.

00:58:50.880 Yeah.

00:58:51.300 You know, I mean like,

00:58:52.200 oh no,

00:58:53.100 the US is coming back. 0.55

00:58:54.280 All of a sudden,

00:58:54.800 OPEC doesn't control.

00:58:56.160 There's a wild time.

00:58:57.460 That's when fracking 0.82

00:58:58.220 becomes dangerous.

00:58:59.440 Yes.

00:58:59.720 It's going to cause earthquakes.

00:59:01.180 Yeah, and it lights on fire

00:59:02.840 and da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da.

00:59:04.360 Yeah, yeah.

00:59:04.620 Documentary films.

00:59:06.540 Nonsense.

00:59:07.400 Yes.

00:59:08.020 So, well,

00:59:09.100 and you've got to do fracking, right?

00:59:10.460 Let me defend that.

00:59:11.660 You know, you can't go out there

00:59:12.740 like the Wild West.

00:59:14.320 Fracking is a major

00:59:15.320 industrial operation.

00:59:16.480 It is.

00:59:17.180 You're lining up big trucks

00:59:18.260 around a hole,

00:59:18.900 putting a bunch of water

00:59:19.740 under pressure.

00:59:20.500 You're producing oil and gas.

00:59:22.220 You've got to do it right.

00:59:24.260 Well, then you hope

00:59:24.960 that the developed world

00:59:26.140 would do it right

00:59:26.860 because that's where you'd expect

00:59:28.140 it to be done right.

00:59:28.960 To be done right.

00:59:29.500 Absolutely.

00:59:29.800 And it's regulated.

00:59:31.220 Occasionally,

00:59:31.660 there's a bad actor.

00:59:33.840 So, what I'm saying here,

00:59:35.420 remember we have 95%

00:59:36.740 still left in the US.

00:59:38.520 Very hard to get a lot of it out

00:59:39.920 technologically,

00:59:41.000 but we'll get more.

00:59:42.960 Middle East and Russia

00:59:43.640 haven't even started to release that

00:59:44.820 because the oil they sell

00:59:46.760 to the world's markets today

00:59:47.960 is cheaper.

00:59:48.660 Right.

00:59:49.020 So, the arbitrage is better.

00:59:50.360 Yeah.

00:59:50.740 Okay.

00:59:51.080 They're just getting more.

00:59:52.060 Well, the Saudi fields 0.62

00:59:53.120 are like $5 a barrel

00:59:54.360 to produce something like that.

00:59:55.520 Yeah.

00:59:56.040 Depends on the fields

00:59:57.080 and I've been there many times.

00:59:58.260 It depends on the fields.

01:00:00.400 But yeah,

01:00:00.780 it's an incredible,

01:00:02.320 there's lots of stories

01:00:04.120 we won't go into,

01:00:04.960 but they're just beautiful reservoirs.

01:00:06.740 Right.

01:00:06.940 Now,

01:00:08.400 some of them are getting kind of old

01:00:09.860 and oil doesn't last forever.

01:00:13.060 Remember,

01:00:13.600 that leaked off,

01:00:14.560 but they still have

01:00:15.160 their source rocks.

01:00:16.240 So,

01:00:16.460 I don't want to give people

01:00:17.820 the impression

01:00:18.360 that oil and natural gas

01:00:19.660 are forever.

01:00:20.340 They're not.

01:00:21.060 Mm-hmm.

01:00:22.080 They're naturally formed.

01:00:24.600 They are,

01:00:25.320 they're not replaceable

01:00:27.040 in human timescales

01:00:28.260 because it took millions of years

01:00:29.620 to cook those plants.

01:00:31.480 Okay.

01:00:32.460 But,

01:00:33.100 there's a lot of resource

01:00:34.080 still left.

01:00:35.420 And there's-

01:00:35.860 What degree does an oil field

01:00:37.100 that's being abandoned

01:00:38.100 replenish?

01:00:39.420 Not,

01:00:39.800 doesn't.

01:00:40.700 Okay,

01:00:40.980 so they're really taken dry.

01:00:42.900 They aren't dry.

01:00:43.660 Absent new technology.

01:00:45.100 They're not taken dry.

01:00:46.220 We leave a bunch of oil

01:00:47.200 and gas behind

01:00:48.060 in shale

01:00:48.760 and in conventional reservoirs.

01:00:50.960 Think of your driveway,

01:00:51.920 your cement driveway

01:00:52.520 when you spill a little oil

01:00:53.580 on there from you.

01:00:54.280 Yeah.

01:00:54.760 Can you get it out?

01:00:56.120 Right.

01:00:56.380 It's stuck in that limestone.

01:00:57.680 That's just limestone.

01:00:58.500 Cement is limestone.

01:00:59.440 Mm-hmm.

01:00:59.620 It's stuck forever.

01:01:00.780 It sticks to the rock.

01:01:02.360 And that's what

01:01:03.020 secondary and tertiary

01:01:04.300 recovery processes do.

01:01:05.780 They put in carbon dioxide,

01:01:07.700 ironically.

01:01:08.260 Mm-hmm.

01:01:08.680 CO2 floods.

01:01:09.720 Mm-hmm.

01:01:09.920 And you can,

01:01:10.700 it changes the way

01:01:11.680 the oil and the rock interact.

01:01:13.300 It's called wettability.

01:01:14.720 And it releases more oil.

01:01:16.260 So,

01:01:16.560 there's these enhance-

01:01:17.880 but you're putting something

01:01:18.960 kind of,

01:01:19.700 it costs money.

01:01:20.640 Mm-hmm.

01:01:20.860 Just like the bolted-on coal.

01:01:22.620 It's expensive.

01:01:24.160 So,

01:01:24.260 I'm putting money in the ground

01:01:25.220 to get more oil out.

01:01:27.060 I can always get more oil out,

01:01:28.400 but I don't always get more money out.

01:01:30.160 Yeah,

01:01:30.420 yeah,

01:01:30.660 yeah,

01:01:30.920 right.

01:01:31.060 So,

01:01:31.180 the things you put in

01:01:32.200 have to be cheaper

01:01:33.400 than the value of the oil

01:01:35.140 that you produce.

01:01:36.080 So,

01:01:36.340 what do you think,

01:01:36.940 what do you think

01:01:37.600 a reasonable time frame,

01:01:39.320 when we're thinking about

01:01:40.440 ensuring future

01:01:43.300 natural resources,

01:01:44.720 let's say,

01:01:45.260 given the rate of technological transformation?

01:01:49.600 Yeah.

01:01:49.780 Like,

01:01:49.980 we can't predict out 200 years.

01:01:52.400 We certainly can't predict out 100 years.

01:01:54.640 No.

01:01:54.660 Like,

01:01:54.940 when we're thinking about

01:01:56.020 whether we'll run out of something,

01:01:58.600 Yeah.

01:01:59.000 what,

01:01:59.600 do you have any sense

01:02:00.760 of what a reasonable time frame

01:02:02.220 of computation would be?

01:02:03.360 We don't run out of things.

01:02:05.540 We don't run out of commodities.

01:02:07.480 Why?

01:02:09.420 Something better comes along.

01:02:10.740 Right,

01:02:11.020 right.

01:02:11.240 You described it.

01:02:12.200 The supply-demand economics kick in,

01:02:14.780 and we say,

01:02:15.340 well, 0.99

01:02:15.520 holy crap. 0.99

01:02:16.280 We'll switch. 0.99

01:02:17.100 Let's invent something better.

01:02:18.920 Yeah,

01:02:19.160 yeah,

01:02:19.500 yeah.

01:02:19.780 And there we go.

01:02:20.540 The only thing-

01:02:21.120 this is why the economists

01:02:22.220 are always at war

01:02:23.020 with the biologists.

01:02:23.880 Correct.

01:02:24.480 Because the biologists 0.99

01:02:25.260 have fallen into this foolish 0.98

01:02:27.040 Malthusian thinking, 0.98

01:02:28.260 and the economists say,

01:02:29.560 no,

01:02:29.880 we're innovative enough

01:02:31.420 so that we switch directions.

01:02:32.900 Correct.

01:02:33.460 And that is,

01:02:34.240 you see,

01:02:34.580 the biologists should understand this

01:02:35.980 because the fundamental distinction

01:02:38.000 between human beings

01:02:39.020 and all other animals

01:02:39.900 is that our environment

01:02:42.080 is not fixed.

01:02:43.460 Yeah.

01:02:43.960 Right?

01:02:44.160 It's unbelievably malleable,

01:02:45.680 which is why we can live everywhere.

01:02:47.300 Right.

01:02:47.440 And so,

01:02:48.040 there's a biological reality

01:02:50.260 underneath the economic reality.

01:02:51.740 It's like,

01:02:52.740 well,

01:02:52.920 we're going to run out

01:02:53.560 of natural resources.

01:02:55.520 No,

01:02:56.000 we're going to run out

01:02:57.100 of the game we play

01:02:58.240 with that commodity.

01:02:59.880 Yes.

01:03:00.140 Now and then,

01:03:00.940 we'll just switch

01:03:01.740 to a different game

01:03:02.660 with a different commodity.

01:03:03.680 Right.

01:03:04.060 And in a complex industrial economy,

01:03:07.560 there's many games like that

01:03:09.480 that we can switch to

01:03:10.360 going on all the time.

01:03:11.820 Incredibly complicated.

01:03:13.280 Yeah.

01:03:13.400 And you see

01:03:14.220 the technological uses

01:03:15.880 of these things

01:03:16.820 with energy

01:03:17.500 always changing.

01:03:19.220 I was riding over here today

01:03:20.420 and there's this autonomous car

01:03:21.940 just driving along with us,

01:03:23.380 you know,

01:03:23.760 and so,

01:03:25.860 you don't run out of oil.

01:03:27.400 It becomes too expensive.

01:03:29.180 And we,

01:03:29.500 back to what we talked about earlier,

01:03:31.020 we start using it

01:03:31.900 for those things

01:03:32.580 that only it can uniquely do.

01:03:34.180 Yeah, right.

01:03:34.820 Instead of transportation

01:03:36.020 and burning it,

01:03:37.660 well,

01:03:37.860 maybe we use hybrids

01:03:39.560 or maybe we use fuel cells.

01:03:43.320 Hydrogen.

01:03:44.120 There's a lot of hydrogen

01:03:45.160 in the world.

01:03:45.580 You got to make it.

01:03:46.680 You got to split the water.

01:03:47.520 But we can make it with nuclear.

01:03:48.680 You take nuclear,

01:03:49.760 you can split the water molecule,

01:03:51.640 hydrolysis essentially.

01:03:52.540 You can split the methane molecule

01:03:54.060 easier,

01:03:54.860 energetically cheaper.

01:03:56.340 And that's called steam reforming.

01:03:58.300 So I make hydrogen

01:03:59.240 and I can put it in a fuel cell

01:04:00.780 and drive my cars.

01:04:02.500 So this will,

01:04:03.380 it's economics.

01:04:04.680 Which one's more affordable today?

01:04:06.820 There's optionality

01:04:07.840 out there in the future.

01:04:09.160 We're not going to run out of oil.

01:04:10.800 And I haven't even talked

01:04:11.780 about one important source

01:04:13.000 of,

01:04:13.360 two important sources

01:04:13.980 of natural gas.

01:04:14.980 One is called hydrates.

01:04:17.400 I don't know if you've heard

01:04:17.960 of natural gas.

01:04:19.900 Oceanic and permafrost.

01:04:22.460 You're freezing.

01:04:24.400 They're called clathorids.

01:04:25.640 You're freezing gas molecules.

01:04:27.560 And you're not freezing molecules.

01:04:28.660 You're locking them up in ice

01:04:29.840 in the deep ocean floor

01:04:32.040 because it's cold

01:04:33.240 and pressure and dark.

01:04:35.720 And in the permafrost,

01:04:37.580 there's a plethora of methane

01:04:40.320 locked up in ice.

01:04:43.460 They're called hydrates.

01:04:44.820 I don't know if you've heard of them.

01:04:45.680 That's in the ocean.

01:04:46.660 In the ocean

01:04:47.260 and up in the permafrost.

01:04:48.480 Also in the permafrost.

01:04:49.780 Northern Russia.

01:04:51.000 Northern Canada.

01:04:52.160 That's the ice equivalent

01:04:53.120 of shale rock.

01:04:55.640 It's the ice.

01:04:56.440 Yeah,

01:04:56.800 that's a decent analogy.

01:04:58.140 It's the ice equivalent

01:04:58.920 of shale rock.

01:04:59.840 You've locked this methane in.

01:05:02.080 How much of that is there?

01:05:02.960 It's bigger than anything

01:05:04.020 we've talked about.

01:05:06.220 Okay, okay.

01:05:06.940 So the fossil fuel scarcity

01:05:08.820 argument is nonsensical.

01:05:11.160 They're expensive.

01:05:12.140 Right.

01:05:12.420 So I don't want your listener

01:05:13.520 to say,

01:05:13.960 oh, well,

01:05:14.240 why don't we go do that?

01:05:15.080 It's expensive.

01:05:15.380 It doesn't matter

01:05:15.980 if you get rich enough.

01:05:17.120 If you get rich enough

01:05:18.020 and with technology,

01:05:20.660 the cost goes down.

01:05:21.240 The cost comes down.

01:05:21.940 And so when you need that thing,

01:05:24.020 there it is.

01:05:24.820 Yeah,

01:05:24.960 so at some point,

01:05:25.880 there'll be a threshold

01:05:26.820 of price,

01:05:28.000 hypothetically,

01:05:28.900 where beginning to investigate

01:05:30.460 the use of hydrates

01:05:31.320 will make economic sense.

01:05:32.800 And then what'll happen

01:05:33.800 is people will figure out

01:05:34.640 how to do it

01:05:35.040 and the price will fall

01:05:35.860 dramatically.

01:05:37.380 Yeah, okay.

01:05:37.720 And then there's this crazy thing.

01:05:39.320 And I, myself,

01:05:41.300 I like to say

01:05:42.140 when I'm completely thought

01:05:43.860 something that was

01:05:44.540 completely wrong,

01:05:45.600 which is all often,

01:05:47.640 there was a guy

01:05:48.300 named Thomas Gold.

01:05:49.760 And he talked about

01:05:51.500 abiogenic gas,

01:05:54.840 abiotic gas, 0.86

01:05:56.160 not from organics. 1.00

01:05:57.520 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

01:05:58.660 I've wondered about that.

01:05:59.540 I've read about that.

01:06:00.200 Russian guy.

01:06:01.000 I haven't been able

01:06:01.680 to make heads or tails of it.

01:06:03.060 So what's a really smart guy

01:06:04.480 that I respect tremendously.

01:06:05.840 I was with him in D.C.

01:06:06.640 earlier this week

01:06:07.340 named Jesse Osibill.

01:06:08.340 Well, he's done

01:06:09.300 so many cool things.

01:06:11.240 Really smart thinker.

01:06:12.800 Jesse Osibill.

01:06:13.920 Osibill.

01:06:14.800 You'd love him on D.C.

01:06:16.160 He'd be a great guest.

01:06:17.380 Okay.

01:06:17.840 And he could talk about,

01:06:19.240 he started many things,

01:06:21.040 but one of those

01:06:22.920 was this thing

01:06:24.000 called the Deep Carbon Observatory.

01:06:26.720 And he got for a decade

01:06:27.700 a bunch of smart people together

01:06:29.280 to look at whether

01:06:30.380 there's natural gas,

01:06:32.100 carbon,

01:06:33.180 deep in the earth

01:06:34.440 that couldn't have come

01:06:35.780 from organics.

01:06:36.880 Right, right.

01:06:37.140 And they concluded,

01:06:38.520 yes, there is.

01:06:41.280 And there's a lot of work

01:06:44.280 to be done,

01:06:45.200 but there's natural gas

01:06:47.560 in the world still

01:06:48.420 from other terrestrial things

01:06:52.280 that you can make CH4.

01:06:55.140 It doesn't have to be organics

01:06:56.540 in that sense.

01:06:58.640 Carbon is a pretty common element,

01:07:01.060 and so is hydrogen.

01:07:02.180 So that work showed

01:07:03.680 we got a lot of thinking to do,

01:07:05.720 and that's here on earth.

01:07:07.420 So I might sound

01:07:08.980 a little sanguine

01:07:09.620 about oil and gas.

01:07:12.860 It's there

01:07:13.700 at the right price

01:07:15.000 for the right needs

01:07:16.520 for molecules

01:07:18.420 and then nuclear

01:07:20.820 for electricity.

01:07:22.340 Right.

01:07:22.860 So we come back

01:07:23.440 to the original piece here.

01:07:24.520 Okay, so what are the impediments?

01:07:27.680 There's regulatory impediments,

01:07:29.240 there's narrative impediments.

01:07:30.500 I mean, one of the reasons

01:07:32.160 that we've started

01:07:33.180 to communicate more

01:07:34.840 and more publicly

01:07:36.140 is because

01:07:37.480 we have determined

01:07:39.460 at ARC,

01:07:41.080 this happened

01:07:42.120 at least in part

01:07:42.780 because I read analysis

01:07:44.420 20 years ago

01:07:45.460 that,

01:07:45.980 and I think they were

01:07:46.580 Lomberg's analysis,

01:07:48.060 that showed that

01:07:49.160 if you make poor people rich,

01:07:51.440 they pollute less.

01:07:52.840 And I thought,

01:07:53.260 oh my God,

01:07:53.840 that's the magic key.

01:07:55.200 It's like,

01:07:55.680 you can solve

01:07:57.080 the problem of poverty,

01:07:59.400 abject poverty,

01:08:00.380 not relative poverty,

01:08:01.620 the devastating form

01:08:03.280 of life-threatening poverty,

01:08:04.840 opportunity-destroying,

01:08:06.760 stunting poverty,

01:08:08.200 and you can solve

01:08:10.220 the environmental problem

01:08:11.020 at the same time.

01:08:12.040 Like, why wouldn't you do that?

01:08:13.500 That's such an opportunity.

01:08:14.880 We should.

01:08:15.500 Right, right.

01:08:16.100 So then when we

01:08:17.680 aggregated together ARC,

01:08:19.480 one of our foundational platforms,

01:08:21.420 this intermingling

01:08:22.700 of energy and environment

01:08:23.760 was,

01:08:25.220 well,

01:08:25.840 we need to change the,

01:08:27.300 we certainly need to change

01:08:28.940 the scarcity narrative,

01:08:30.320 the Malthusian narrative.

01:08:31.560 We're not going to run out, folks.

01:08:33.200 There aren't too many people

01:08:34.140 on the planet.

01:08:35.200 There isn't finite resources

01:08:36.680 in the way we conceptualize them

01:08:38.200 and the way we conceptualize that

01:08:40.040 because resource itself

01:08:41.540 is a fungible concept.

01:08:44.180 I think the idea

01:08:45.720 of natural resource

01:08:46.980 is essentially

01:08:48.000 a Malthusian

01:08:49.600 and Marxist idea

01:08:50.580 at its core.

01:08:51.420 Right.

01:08:52.080 Natural resource.

01:08:53.400 Yeah, like what?

01:08:54.380 Air maybe.

01:08:55.300 Maybe air

01:08:56.160 because you can just breathe it.

01:08:57.720 You still have to expend

01:08:58.660 the energy.

01:08:59.880 Right.

01:09:00.140 Clean water.

01:09:01.140 Now that's not natural.

01:09:02.540 That takes a lot of work.

01:09:03.880 A lot.

01:09:05.040 Okay, so.

01:09:06.040 Yeah, so that's this,

01:09:07.880 this thought that,

01:09:10.160 that,

01:09:11.320 and I've been in 60 countries

01:09:12.600 in the world.

01:09:13.080 I've been lucky

01:09:13.600 into them.

01:09:14.700 the worst environments

01:09:17.080 in the world,

01:09:17.560 the physical environment

01:09:18.520 where

01:09:19.300 the worst soil,

01:09:22.140 the worst water,

01:09:22.980 polluted water,

01:09:23.740 local air is where it's poor.

01:09:25.500 Every time.

01:09:26.220 Every time.

01:09:26.540 Well, that's also where

01:09:27.480 people kill and eat

01:09:28.480 all the animals

01:09:29.220 when they starve.

01:09:30.640 Right.

01:09:30.920 And you only have to do that

01:09:31.800 once.

01:09:32.740 And you're living.

01:09:33.440 So there aren't any animals.

01:09:34.580 Correct.

01:09:35.040 Right.

01:09:35.580 So your local resources

01:09:37.000 can have limits.

01:09:38.940 Right?

01:09:39.200 Yeah.

01:09:39.420 And gathering of wood,

01:09:40.640 for example,

01:09:41.340 deforestation,

01:09:42.300 can have limits.

01:09:43.700 In Nepal now,

01:09:44.700 where we take in our second film,

01:09:46.440 Switch On,

01:09:47.060 they've had to restrict

01:09:49.460 gathering of wood.

01:09:50.880 But a lot of people

01:09:51.540 can only cook with biomass.

01:09:52.900 And this is where LPG

01:09:53.920 is so critical to them

01:09:55.100 and induction cooktops.

01:09:56.320 Because the forests

01:09:57.220 are literally being

01:09:58.220 harvested.

01:09:59.840 Right.

01:10:00.360 And uncontrollably.

01:10:01.920 So another thing to point out

01:10:03.640 is that natural gas

01:10:05.220 is an excellent substitute

01:10:06.860 for deforestation.

01:10:08.220 Oh, completely.

01:10:08.840 Right, right.

01:10:09.520 Saves the forests.

01:10:10.320 So, okay.

01:10:11.340 And oil saved the whales.

01:10:13.380 We used to use whale oil

01:10:14.620 to light our homes

01:10:15.560 and for other uses.

01:10:17.060 And then along comes

01:10:18.040 this natural thing.

01:10:19.040 And really,

01:10:19.500 it was kerosene

01:10:20.200 that came out of oil

01:10:21.480 initially.

01:10:22.780 And we put that in lanterns.

01:10:24.080 And boy, it burned.

01:10:24.900 And it didn't,

01:10:25.700 it wasn't explosive.

01:10:26.840 Like refined gasolines

01:10:28.960 are another thing.

01:10:30.220 So there's this wonderful

01:10:33.100 technological transition

01:10:36.380 that happens

01:10:37.180 with energy,

01:10:38.240 energy systems,

01:10:39.140 where we keep getting denser,

01:10:42.340 cleaner,

01:10:44.040 and ironically,

01:10:46.020 more reliable

01:10:47.580 and in many ways

01:10:48.380 more affordable.

01:10:49.480 Especially if you adjust

01:10:50.580 for the time value of money.

01:10:52.180 Right.

01:10:52.760 That's why we can do

01:10:53.700 so much work with it.

01:10:55.240 Now,

01:10:55.960 what prevents that?

01:10:57.700 You keep going back

01:10:58.440 saying, 1.00

01:10:58.740 damn it, Scott. 0.99

01:10:59.580 Why are we doing this? 1.00

01:11:01.360 It's so perplexing to me.

01:11:03.100 Yeah.

01:11:03.520 Because,

01:11:04.180 see,

01:11:05.660 I've tried to trace it back.

01:11:07.400 And a lot of this

01:11:09.340 comes out of the

01:11:10.460 scares,

01:11:12.520 the environmental scares

01:11:13.320 of the 1960s,

01:11:14.880 combined with

01:11:15.740 the biologist's

01:11:18.100 insistence

01:11:18.960 that Malthusian realities

01:11:21.540 dominate the world.

01:11:23.320 and

01:11:24.420 the environmental

01:11:27.640 concerns

01:11:29.140 of the 1960s

01:11:30.240 had some grounding,

01:11:31.940 but they were the only,

01:11:33.160 they were the kind of concerns

01:11:34.500 that would only emerge

01:11:35.320 in a rich country.

01:11:36.080 So that's the first thing

01:11:36.920 we might want to notice that.

01:11:38.280 When Rachel Carson

01:11:39.380 published Silent Spring,

01:11:41.060 the fact that

01:11:42.020 our industrial processes

01:11:43.780 were creating

01:11:45.620 a certain degree

01:11:46.480 of havoc

01:11:47.040 in some specified ecosystems

01:11:48.720 was the sort of thing

01:11:49.980 that wealthy people

01:11:50.880 could afford

01:11:51.400 to worry about.

01:11:52.360 Right.

01:11:52.540 And then did.

01:11:53.800 And then Paul Ehrlich

01:11:55.080 and the Club of Rome,

01:11:56.640 those people, man,

01:11:57.720 they got a lot of sins

01:11:58.620 on their conscience.

01:11:59.740 And their notion was

01:12:00.940 overpopulation

01:12:02.420 in a world

01:12:03.460 defined by finitude.

01:12:05.820 Right.

01:12:06.760 And that's had a,

01:12:09.360 I can't think of a doctrine

01:12:10.560 that's done more harm

01:12:11.420 than that.

01:12:12.760 Maybe the communist doctrine,

01:12:14.740 possibly.

01:12:15.540 Marxist.

01:12:16.700 Possibly that.

01:12:17.620 But apart from that,

01:12:19.180 that notion of

01:12:20.080 intrinsic Malthusian scarcity.

01:12:21.760 Now, there's a great story

01:12:23.340 about that, right?

01:12:24.080 Because Paul Ehrlich,

01:12:25.500 who is the master biologist

01:12:27.360 of the Malthusian nightmare.

01:12:28.860 So the Malthusian nightmare 0.91

01:12:29.920 is the idea that

01:12:30.880 human beings

01:12:31.720 are best modeled

01:12:32.760 as mold in a Petri dish.

01:12:34.860 We'll multiply uncontrollably

01:12:36.640 and rapaciously

01:12:37.800 until we devour

01:12:39.000 all of the biological substrate

01:12:40.520 and then we'll all

01:12:41.540 cataclysmically starve.

01:12:42.960 Right.

01:12:43.220 It's like, no.

01:12:44.580 No.

01:12:45.180 There's nothing about that

01:12:46.300 that's right

01:12:46.740 in the human situation

01:12:48.260 if things are mastered properly.

01:12:49.600 Because we can switch

01:12:51.000 the substrate.

01:12:52.760 So, and that's actually what,

01:12:54.380 that's why we have a cortex.

01:12:56.880 Right.

01:12:57.160 I mean, our niche,

01:12:58.200 our niche is substrate switching.

01:13:00.820 That's what we've evolved to do.

01:13:03.500 Let me support that for a second.

01:13:04.940 Hold that thought for a second.

01:13:06.040 Yeah.

01:13:06.080 Um, the substrate switching

01:13:08.940 that's going on right now

01:13:10.300 with wealth.

01:13:13.440 So if you look at,

01:13:14.840 and there's reasons this,

01:13:16.400 I'm going to preface it.

01:13:17.720 Some of this might not be good

01:13:19.160 in terms of outcome,

01:13:20.840 but here's what's happening.

01:13:22.040 So I'm going to describe it.

01:13:23.680 Fertility rates against wealth.

01:13:26.140 Right.

01:13:27.580 If you look at that,

01:13:28.960 highest fertility rates

01:13:30.320 down to the lowest,

01:13:31.740 wealth going this way.

01:13:32.900 The wealthiest countries over here

01:13:34.760 and our fertility rates

01:13:35.720 are below replacement of 2.1.

01:13:37.440 Yeah.

01:13:38.900 The poorer you are,

01:13:40.300 the higher your fertility rates. 0.74

01:13:42.680 Right.

01:13:42.920 Because you need kids for one thing

01:13:44.740 to do the basic agrarian

01:13:46.200 kinds of things

01:13:46.940 and they die

01:13:47.780 of a tooth infection

01:13:49.160 or diarrhea.

01:13:50.500 It's, it's,

01:13:50.940 it's morally awful

01:13:52.880 in a modern world,

01:13:54.420 so-called.

01:13:55.580 But it isn't

01:13:56.500 fertility rates driving wealth.

01:13:58.360 It's wealth

01:13:59.260 pulling down

01:14:00.580 the fertility rates.

01:14:01.500 And part of the reason

01:14:03.020 that's happening

01:14:03.580 is, you just described it,

01:14:04.740 we have a brain.

01:14:05.740 Yeah.

01:14:06.000 People are saying

01:14:06.900 we choose

01:14:08.240 not to have as many kids.

01:14:12.180 Morally,

01:14:13.180 religiously,

01:14:13.760 we could talk about that

01:14:14.900 and you'll be better than me,

01:14:15.840 but this is just

01:14:16.420 what's happening.

01:14:17.260 So the fertility rates

01:14:18.440 in almost every country

01:14:19.460 in the world

01:14:19.920 have been plummeting

01:14:20.680 the last 30 years,

01:14:21.680 except Africa.

01:14:22.540 So the point you're making

01:14:23.720 is that-

01:14:24.220 Is population

01:14:24.760 in 50 years,

01:14:28.220 and here comes

01:14:28.880 the last 50.

01:14:29.900 Yeah, right.

01:14:30.860 50 megawatt hours,

01:14:32.560 50,000 bucks.

01:14:34.660 In 2075,

01:14:36.360 most demographers

01:14:37.240 agree now,

01:14:38.000 given the current

01:14:38.680 trends in fertility rates

01:14:40.040 plummeting,

01:14:41.520 population in this world

01:14:42.540 will peak.

01:14:43.280 Right.

01:14:43.740 And it won't plateau,

01:14:45.080 Jordan.

01:14:45.740 It'll-

01:14:46.380 It plummets.

01:14:47.260 Yeah.

01:14:47.580 It plummets.

01:14:48.200 Which may be

01:14:49.000 the next problem

01:14:49.700 we really have to face.

01:14:50.680 We're going to be going,

01:14:52.080 whoa,

01:14:52.620 this has got all-

01:14:53.600 2075,

01:14:55.120 my kids will still be alive.

01:14:56.540 Right, right.

01:14:56.720 And so why am I not

01:14:58.040 concerned about resources?

01:15:00.200 Well, I kind of believe

01:15:01.020 that's coming,

01:15:01.680 and there may be

01:15:02.180 a human super cycle.

01:15:03.540 Who knows?

01:15:04.180 We may choose

01:15:04.720 to have more kids

01:15:05.360 and not go extinct.

01:15:06.460 Yeah.

01:15:06.680 I think we're going to

01:15:07.500 choose to have kids

01:15:08.640 personally.

01:15:09.700 Yeah.

01:15:09.840 You know?

01:15:10.320 I think so, too.

01:15:11.060 But I don't think-

01:15:12.500 We can provide enough

01:15:13.560 energy for 50 years

01:15:14.540 to get everybody

01:15:15.120 50 megawatt hours

01:15:16.040 and 50 grand.

01:15:17.100 50, 50, 50.

01:15:18.080 We can do that.

01:15:19.020 Yeah.

01:15:19.720 And this is what

01:15:20.340 Toby Rice and I

01:15:21.240 have started,

01:15:21.760 the Energy Corps,

01:15:22.700 C-O-R-P-S, 1.00

01:15:23.540 to try to do

01:15:24.040 that very thing,

01:15:25.260 is to not get

01:15:25.980 mud huts and light bulbs,

01:15:27.060 to literally help

01:15:27.860 everybody who's doing

01:15:29.000 great work in this area,

01:15:30.260 lift the world

01:15:30.900 into prosperity.

01:15:32.060 Yeah.

01:15:32.360 Let's go.

01:15:33.260 Yeah.

01:15:33.620 What's stopping that?

01:15:35.140 Well, that's the next issue.

01:15:37.560 Well, the Malthusian hypothesis

01:15:40.020 is one,

01:15:40.660 but you put a dagger

01:15:42.040 in its heart

01:15:42.720 on the population side

01:15:45.060 because Ehrlich's fear,

01:15:46.720 the club of Rome,

01:15:47.520 these desperate people,

01:15:50.140 they presumed that

01:15:51.720 there'd be a never-ending

01:15:53.540 cycle of population increase.

01:15:55.260 But it's not happening.

01:15:56.020 No, the opposite.

01:15:57.100 Of the opposite

01:15:57.680 of what they predicted

01:15:58.440 is happening.

01:15:59.340 Exactly, exactly.

01:16:00.500 Is that wealth produces

01:16:02.580 a maybe cataclysmic decline

01:16:05.240 in the birth rate.

01:16:06.060 Now, that's something

01:16:06.740 we could modify

01:16:07.560 and likely will,

01:16:09.260 but that's the opposite

01:16:10.560 of what they predicted.

01:16:11.540 And then there's

01:16:11.960 the famous bet

01:16:12.800 between Paul Ehrlich

01:16:14.140 and Julian Simon,

01:16:15.600 Julian being the economist.

01:16:17.100 Right.

01:16:17.320 Right, who was a polymath

01:16:19.020 and a genius

01:16:19.680 in a completely different

01:16:21.520 intellectual category

01:16:22.480 than Dr. Ehrlich,

01:16:23.740 I'm afraid.

01:16:24.380 And they had a famous bet,

01:16:26.060 I think it was in the 1970s,

01:16:27.760 when Ehrlich

01:16:28.540 was proposing

01:16:30.180 that by the year 2000,

01:16:31.800 commodity prices

01:16:32.480 would shoot through the roof

01:16:33.620 as a consequence of scarcity

01:16:34.900 and everyone would be dying

01:16:36.460 and everyone would be dying

01:16:36.480 of starvation.

01:16:37.180 Yes.

01:16:37.660 And Simon bet him famously

01:16:39.700 that he could offer

01:16:41.220 his own basket of commodities

01:16:44.020 and that a weighted average

01:16:47.060 of that commodity basket

01:16:48.900 would be less expensive

01:16:50.220 in 2000 than in the 1970s.

01:16:52.400 Yes.

01:16:52.800 And who won?

01:16:53.540 Inflation adjusted less.

01:16:55.700 Right.

01:16:55.960 Yeah.

01:16:56.360 Simon won.

01:16:57.360 Yeah.

01:16:57.680 Right.

01:16:58.120 Early.

01:16:58.420 And then the response

01:17:00.820 of the Malthusians

01:17:01.800 is always,

01:17:03.120 oh, I just got

01:17:03.720 the time frame wrong.

01:17:04.840 And I can speak about that

01:17:06.060 from a scientific perspective.

01:17:07.880 You don't get to get

01:17:08.880 the time frame wrong.

01:17:10.460 You can't say,

01:17:11.880 eventually,

01:17:12.860 I'll be right.

01:17:13.700 It's no,

01:17:14.380 your theory has to define

01:17:15.780 the time frame

01:17:16.680 over which your bloody 0.56

01:17:18.080 prediction remains valid.

01:17:19.940 And so that failed.

01:17:21.940 Yeah.

01:17:22.140 It was wrong.

01:17:23.160 Peak oil failed.

01:17:24.260 Yeah.

01:17:24.540 A lot of these peak things.

01:17:26.640 I don't think that prediction

01:17:28.060 will ever be correct.

01:17:29.440 Yeah, I don't hear it.

01:17:30.360 Because of what we just

01:17:31.300 talked about.

01:17:32.180 Yeah.

01:17:32.320 Humans,

01:17:33.380 as we get-

01:17:34.840 We adapt.

01:17:35.400 And we choose

01:17:36.700 if we're allowed to.

01:17:38.280 I mean,

01:17:38.500 look at China.

01:17:40.420 Right.

01:17:40.720 One child policy.

01:17:41.920 Oh, wait.

01:17:43.240 We're not all boys.

01:17:44.340 We're not replacing.

01:17:45.040 Yeah.

01:17:45.680 China is at 1.2

01:17:47.440 fertility rate.

01:17:48.500 Right.

01:17:49.040 1.2.

01:17:50.040 India went below 0.94

01:17:50.900 2.1 last year.

01:17:52.760 India.

01:17:53.480 Now,

01:17:53.780 the population will grow

01:17:54.800 their math.

01:17:55.360 That's math.

01:17:56.240 Yeah.

01:17:56.660 But eventually,

01:17:57.700 India peaks.

01:17:58.980 And China said,

01:17:59.640 three kids.

01:18:00.740 We'll financially

01:18:02.480 incentivize you

01:18:03.360 to have kids.

01:18:04.100 Yeah.

01:18:04.300 And the kids are saying,

01:18:05.380 no.

01:18:06.580 Yeah.

01:18:07.400 Yeah.

01:18:08.060 This is big stuff.

01:18:10.200 Yeah,

01:18:10.480 that's for sure.

01:18:11.060 I'd love to be alive

01:18:11.760 in 2075

01:18:12.620 and be able to

01:18:13.740 sort of see

01:18:14.480 how we start to

01:18:15.920 define things

01:18:17.060 if growth isn't

01:18:17.960 the measure of good.

01:18:19.720 What is?

01:18:20.280 How does a generation

01:18:21.880 of young people

01:18:22.620 take care of us

01:18:23.260 oldies for the next 50 years 0.90

01:18:24.880 because there's more of us

01:18:26.080 than them

01:18:26.560 in rich societies?

01:18:27.980 This is really,

01:18:28.360 Elon Musk's robots

01:18:29.600 will take care of that problem.

01:18:31.040 Or he's having enough kids too.

01:18:32.500 Yeah.

01:18:32.680 Some of his kids too.

01:18:35.220 Yeah, yeah.

01:18:35.720 But in poor societies,

01:18:38.140 it's young.

01:18:39.000 There's a population pyramid.

01:18:40.360 It's young.

01:18:41.300 Poor societies.

01:18:42.280 And they die.

01:18:43.200 Yeah.

01:18:43.760 Maybe into the 50s.

01:18:44.920 And then you get

01:18:45.660 into these moderate societies,

01:18:48.060 wealthy.

01:18:48.680 And in rich societies,

01:18:49.680 the whole thing inverts.

01:18:50.620 We're old.

01:18:51.120 We're toppling over

01:18:52.020 because of this very issue.

01:18:54.000 Yeah.

01:18:54.140 And this is non-trivial stuff.

01:18:56.560 That's a really important.

01:18:56.780 It's also not the problem

01:18:58.060 we thought we would have.

01:19:00.000 Or some thought.

01:19:01.000 Right.

01:19:01.520 Right.

01:19:01.760 Another indication that,

01:19:03.280 you know,

01:19:03.960 predicting the future

01:19:04.800 turns out to be

01:19:05.500 a very difficult thing.

01:19:06.600 Especially if you have

01:19:07.280 to put a time term on it.

01:19:08.500 Yes, exactly.

01:19:09.420 Exactly.

01:19:09.940 Well, and this is partly

01:19:10.780 what started to make me,

01:19:11.900 apart from the fact that,

01:19:13.280 you know,

01:19:13.500 I sorted out this relationship

01:19:15.740 between abundance

01:19:16.620 and environmental stewardship,

01:19:19.960 which was so important

01:19:20.860 and opportunity.

01:19:22.140 But then I also began

01:19:24.080 to deeply understand

01:19:25.100 the fact that

01:19:25.780 the climate models

01:19:26.840 are unstable

01:19:28.360 and we stack

01:19:29.980 economic models

01:19:31.440 on top of that

01:19:32.420 unstable foundation.

01:19:34.440 I read this week

01:19:35.540 that,

01:19:36.960 and who knows

01:19:37.480 how accurate this is,

01:19:38.560 that we've underestimated

01:19:40.260 the carbon dioxide

01:19:41.120 off-gassing

01:19:41.860 of the world's

01:19:42.600 volcanic vessels,

01:19:43.500 events by a factor of four.

01:19:45.460 Right.

01:19:46.380 Only a factor of four,

01:19:47.900 which means it wasn't

01:19:48.700 an estimate.

01:19:49.340 It wasn't even a guess.

01:19:50.220 It was just an error.

01:19:51.540 Right.

01:19:51.800 And so we don't know.

01:19:53.700 And when you stack,

01:19:56.280 we don't know

01:19:56.960 how to model the climate.

01:19:58.320 Not properly.

01:19:59.260 And when you stack

01:20:00.080 an economic model

01:20:00.980 on top of that

01:20:01.620 that purports to

01:20:02.520 predict out a hundred years.

01:20:04.860 Right.

01:20:05.580 Obviously, no.

01:20:07.180 No.

01:20:07.720 Yeah.

01:20:08.520 There's very important work

01:20:11.280 at the IPCC.

01:20:13.060 Yeah.

01:20:13.500 The Intergovernmental Panel

01:20:14.660 on Climate Change

01:20:15.420 itself has put out

01:20:16.820 in its last major report,

01:20:18.800 AR6,

01:20:20.920 Working Group 1,

01:20:21.840 which is kind of

01:20:22.380 the technical group

01:20:23.320 Yeah.

01:20:23.840 that looks at

01:20:24.700 the models

01:20:25.520 and some of the outcomes

01:20:26.980 of those things.

01:20:27.800 Working Group 1,

01:20:28.900 Chapter 12.

01:20:30.900 Then you expand all sections

01:20:32.340 and go to Table 12.12

01:20:33.820 and this big thing.

01:20:34.700 You showed me that.

01:20:35.540 There's a table here.

01:20:36.540 Yeah.

01:20:36.640 And I have a lot of respect

01:20:40.140 for the IPCC

01:20:40.960 for publishing this table

01:20:42.220 Yeah.

01:20:43.040 because it shows

01:20:44.960 with the highest degree

01:20:47.820 of confidence,

01:20:48.420 which is hard,

01:20:48.980 statistically highest degree

01:20:50.020 of confidence,

01:20:50.420 Yeah.

01:20:51.060 what are the impacts,

01:20:52.500 the extreme weather impacts

01:20:53.640 that have emerged

01:20:54.300 from the historical past

01:20:55.440 so far?

01:20:56.140 And the past being

01:20:57.040 a hundred years

01:20:57.620 because that's how far

01:20:58.580 we can measure it

01:20:59.260 or less.

01:20:59.800 Right.

01:21:00.120 Of all these things,

01:21:02.860 what has emerged

01:21:04.120 from the past so far?

01:21:06.640 In Jordan,

01:21:07.720 there's only three things.

01:21:09.320 You know,

01:21:09.520 it's gotten warmer.

01:21:10.600 The oceans have gotten warmer

01:21:12.040 and one other thing.

01:21:13.480 Yeah.

01:21:13.680 How far down?

01:21:15.240 Yeah.

01:21:16.260 And then they run it

01:21:18.840 to 2050 and 2100,

01:21:20.660 the composite models.

01:21:22.600 In the worst warming scenario,

01:21:25.600 RCP 8.5,

01:21:28.200 the worst.

01:21:28.780 Nobody think,

01:21:29.260 no climate scientists

01:21:30.500 really think

01:21:30.920 that's going to happen,

01:21:31.660 but let's run the worst.

01:21:32.740 What's going to emerge?

01:21:33.900 Not much more emerges.

01:21:36.460 And by 2100,

01:21:38.600 so if you look

01:21:39.860 at the white space

01:21:40.700 in that table,

01:21:41.380 and again,

01:21:42.280 you bring the degree

01:21:43.880 of confidence lower,

01:21:44.900 stuff could start to emerge

01:21:46.040 with a 50-50

01:21:46.940 or 70%

01:21:48.280 or 30% confidence.

01:21:49.440 But when you're up there,

01:21:50.260 what's really emerged

01:21:51.880 with high, high confidence,

01:21:53.360 there's a ton of white space

01:21:55.000 in that table.

01:21:55.940 It's really important

01:21:56.700 to understand,

01:21:57.140 I'm not saying that

01:21:57.960 I don't think that,

01:21:59.860 I think humans

01:22:00.640 have helped to warm

01:22:01.600 the planet some.

01:22:02.400 I think CO2

01:22:03.160 and methane

01:22:03.640 have done that,

01:22:04.360 280 parts per million

01:22:05.280 up to 430.

01:22:06.140 It's a much greener planet.

01:22:07.160 And it's greener,

01:22:07.780 it's food.

01:22:08.240 There's pros and there's

01:22:09.340 trade-offs for everything.

01:22:10.700 Of course.

01:22:11.200 Everything in the world

01:22:11.940 has trade-offs, okay?

01:22:13.200 And change,

01:22:14.060 change has costs, right?

01:22:15.460 Change has cost.

01:22:15.860 Any rapid transformation.

01:22:18.160 Change scares people.

01:22:19.160 Yeah, yeah.

01:22:19.780 And it disrupts ecosystems.

01:22:21.280 But this table says to me,

01:22:23.820 hey, young people especially,

01:22:26.300 it's not an existential threat.

01:22:28.060 Yeah.

01:22:28.620 Humans aren't gone in 15 years.

01:22:30.560 There's some time in here

01:22:31.620 to think wisely,

01:22:33.200 do wisely,

01:22:34.080 react wisely.

01:22:35.020 And then you compound that

01:22:36.220 with the population demographics

01:22:37.920 and our energy access

01:22:40.100 and lifting the world

01:22:41.760 all up from poverty

01:22:42.820 so they don't remain

01:22:43.880 anchored down here.

01:22:45.360 7 billion people

01:22:46.420 and we're over here.

01:22:48.360 That doesn't end well, Jordan.

01:22:50.440 No, no, that's right.

01:22:51.340 That never ends well.

01:22:52.740 No, that's right.

01:22:53.020 You look at any

01:22:53.700 historical country,

01:22:55.680 region in the world

01:22:56.860 and you're growing disparity.

01:22:59.680 Yeah.

01:23:00.100 The masses rise

01:23:01.400 and they say enough.

01:23:03.100 Yeah.

01:23:03.500 We have to do this.

01:23:04.500 It's not just for them.

01:23:05.580 People who have nothing to lose

01:23:06.760 have nothing to lose, right?

01:23:08.780 It's very dangerous

01:23:09.600 to put people in a situation

01:23:11.000 where they have nothing to lose.

01:23:11.720 Nothing to lose.

01:23:12.440 Yeah.

01:23:12.880 And to enforce that on them,

01:23:14.340 to say they can't develop

01:23:15.320 their fossil fuel resources.

01:23:16.800 Nuts.

01:23:17.060 And they have to transition.

01:23:18.780 Africa has to transition 0.99

01:23:19.960 immediately to green energy.

01:23:21.540 And guess what?

01:23:22.300 Yeah. 0.96

01:23:22.900 No longer ignorant. 0.88

01:23:24.700 Right. 0.88

01:23:25.100 I put a 40 watt panel

01:23:26.340 on a Maasai house

01:23:27.980 in Kenya.

01:23:29.480 Yeah.

01:23:30.500 And the first thing

01:23:31.460 they got

01:23:32.900 in this little

01:23:33.920 metal shed

01:23:35.500 cooking indoors.

01:23:37.140 You go in there,

01:23:37.960 you literally can't stand

01:23:39.180 the heat and the smoke.

01:23:40.140 Uh-huh.

01:23:40.800 I don't know how they do it

01:23:41.880 and they die. 0.52

01:23:42.560 Yeah. 0.92

01:23:42.960 First thing

01:23:43.660 as a cell phone.

01:23:45.060 Right.

01:23:45.440 Everybody in the world

01:23:46.600 knows what's going on

01:23:47.460 in the world now.

01:23:48.160 Yeah.

01:23:48.280 It's no longer a secret.

01:23:49.620 Yeah.

01:23:50.000 No secrets.

01:23:50.780 Yeah.

01:23:51.500 So this,

01:23:53.100 no secrets,

01:23:54.320 this has to happen.

01:23:55.520 We've got to,

01:23:56.180 we've got to,

01:23:57.400 for everyone,

01:23:58.960 bring everybody up.

01:24:00.100 Yeah.

01:24:00.440 Got to unleash

01:24:01.200 energy.

01:24:02.580 Yeah.

01:24:03.240 Dense energy.

01:24:04.260 Yeah.

01:24:04.480 All forms,

01:24:06.460 I like solar and wind

01:24:07.780 for certain things

01:24:08.460 where it's sunny and windy.

01:24:09.360 Great.

01:24:09.880 Yeah.

01:24:10.120 They're not going to,

01:24:11.040 they don't address

01:24:11.900 these demands.

01:24:12.800 Provide a way.

01:24:14.380 Nuclear,

01:24:15.780 natural gas

01:24:16.500 for molecules,

01:24:18.440 cooking fuels,

01:24:19.980 oil still important

01:24:21.600 for lots of uses

01:24:22.500 as we've described,

01:24:23.500 coal in some places

01:24:24.400 to continue to lift

01:24:25.240 out of poverty

01:24:25.820 until they can transition

01:24:27.020 away from it.

01:24:28.520 Accelerate

01:24:29.000 economic growth

01:24:30.720 to protect

01:24:31.860 the environment.

01:24:32.500 Great.

01:24:33.740 That's a good place

01:24:34.520 to end.

01:24:35.040 Look,

01:24:35.300 this is what we're

01:24:35.900 going to do

01:24:36.220 because there's,

01:24:36.760 there's still a part

01:24:38.020 of this story

01:24:38.500 that hasn't been told

01:24:39.340 because Scott and I

01:24:40.540 haven't managed

01:24:41.280 to delve into the

01:24:42.480 conceptual underpinnings

01:24:44.400 of the fact that

01:24:45.620 despite the reality

01:24:48.980 that Scott has outlined,

01:24:50.580 which is very positive

01:24:52.140 and also factually grounded

01:24:54.080 and what benevolent

01:24:56.360 in its essential intent,

01:24:58.320 especially with regard

01:24:59.520 to the world's poor,

01:25:00.780 we still haven't cracked

01:25:02.320 the fundamental problem

01:25:04.140 on the conceptual side,

01:25:05.700 which is if this is all true,

01:25:07.980 then why the hell

01:25:09.020 aren't we doing it

01:25:09.940 and as fast as possible

01:25:11.480 and where did this count,

01:25:13.040 this utterly destructive

01:25:14.440 counter-narrative come from

01:25:15.660 and why is it still

01:25:17.120 being promulgated?

01:25:18.540 And so I would love

01:25:19.920 to cover that

01:25:20.440 on the YouTube side

01:25:21.260 but we're out of time

01:25:22.600 and so we're going to cover

01:25:23.640 that on the Daily Wire side

01:25:24.820 so you can join us there.

01:25:26.960 Thanks very much

01:25:27.620 for your time and attention.

01:25:28.540 Thanks, Scott.

01:25:29.060 It's always an education

01:25:30.460 listening to you.

01:25:31.160 I appreciate it very much.

01:25:33.480 We need to get you

01:25:34.440 to teach a course

01:25:35.220 for Peterson Academy

01:25:37.540 on energy literacy.

01:25:41.040 Seriously.

01:25:41.760 Okay.

01:25:41.900 Now we've got a lot

01:25:42.700 of courses on there

01:25:43.540 that are free market

01:25:44.520 economic oriented

01:25:46.060 because we'd like

01:25:47.080 to bring our content

01:25:48.080 to the developing world,

01:25:49.620 especially to Africa

01:25:50.460 and that'll be happening

01:25:51.480 relatively quickly

01:25:52.400 as soon as we can get

01:25:53.280 the translation technology

01:25:55.540 up and running

01:25:56.260 but we'd like to teach

01:25:57.900 free market economics

01:25:58.960 and this energy literacy

01:26:00.640 is energy

01:26:01.720 slash environmental literacy.

01:26:03.320 This is crucially important

01:26:05.240 to invert the narrative.

01:26:07.400 So and in the proper manner

01:26:09.160 and you think

01:26:09.840 for those of you out there

01:26:11.180 who are listening

01:26:11.780 and maybe there aren't

01:26:12.520 very many of you

01:26:13.120 who have a left wing orientation,

01:26:14.740 you know,

01:26:15.120 one of the things

01:26:15.740 you really want to ask yourself

01:26:16.780 is are you going to serve

01:26:17.820 the poor or not?

01:26:19.460 Because that's hypothetically

01:26:21.120 the basis of your ethos

01:26:23.100 and the most appropriate way

01:26:24.500 to serve the poor

01:26:25.100 is to make energy

01:26:26.240 radically available reliably,

01:26:29.440 period.

01:26:30.380 So think it over

01:26:32.560 from first principles

01:26:33.480 and decide who's on your side

01:26:34.980 and who's not

01:26:35.600 and why the people

01:26:37.180 who are objecting to this

01:26:38.220 are doing it

01:26:38.760 because that's a mystery.

01:26:40.760 We're going to talk about that

01:26:41.880 on The Daily Wire side.

01:26:42.880 Great.

01:26:43.240 Thanks very much, sir.

01:26:44.280 I really enjoyed it.

01:26:45.180 Thank you.

01:26:45.480 Yeah.

01:26:54.500 I really enjoyed it.

01:26:56.240 Thank you.

01:26:56.500 Thank you.

01:26:56.840 Thank you.

The Jordan B. Peterson Podcast - May 29, 2025

551. An Honest Take on the Looming Energy Crisis ｜ Scott Tinker

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