00:04:40.000They used the term existential threat to describe a potential attack on the Ayatollah.
00:04:45.000And now it appears that such an attack has taken place.
00:04:48.000It's already clear that this is a very different situation than what we saw back in June.
00:04:53.000That's when Trump first hit Iran in Operation Midnight Hammer.
00:04:56.000Now, remember, following those strikes, the Iranians offered a restrained,
00:04:59.000mostly symbolic strike of their own in response.
00:05:02.000They targeted an American base in Qatar, sending 19 missiles.
00:05:06.000They actually went as far in that case as giving the U.S. advance notice that the strikes were coming.
00:05:11.000So most of their missiles were shot down and no casualties were reported.
00:05:14.000Basically, it was a face-saving measure from the Ayatollah.
00:05:17.000The Iranians said if they were hit again, and especially if the Ayatollah's family and himself were targeted,
00:05:22.000that they would respond this time with the full force of their arsenal.
00:05:26.000And that appears to be happening. During Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. successfully targeted Iranian missile stockpiles early on.
00:05:32.000That significantly hindered their ability to launch retaliatory strikes.
00:05:35.000But this time it looks like Iran is trying to fire off as many of those missiles as possible before they're potentially destroyed.
00:05:41.000And we've already seen, again, an unprecedented flurry of explosions across the Middle East.
00:05:46.000The Iranian military in recent hours says they've already launched drones and missiles at Israel in what they're calling the first wave of retaliatory attacks.
00:05:54.000And the expectation from the Pentagon is that they will target any number of U.S. military bases across the region.
00:06:00.000There have been reports of explosions in Jordan, Kuwait, Dubai, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
00:06:06.000The list is continuing to grow, and at least some of those explosions do appear to have been on American military bases.
00:06:13.000Again, because this is such a breaking story, we're waiting for details on whether there have been any U.S. casualties so far.
00:06:19.000At the moment, we're told there have not been.
00:06:21.000But at least one of those explosions appears to have been significant.
00:06:24.000We're going to show you footage that reportedly depicts a missile targeting the headquarters of the United States Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain.
00:06:43.000Again, you can see the magnitude of that strike.
00:06:53.000Reports again right now are that no American service members were harmed there.
00:06:56.000Fox says that thankfully the base had been largely evacuated, and that was a warehouse that had not been in use lately.
00:07:03.000Now, the obvious goal of this operation is to knock out Iran's nuclear sites and weaken their military.
00:07:08.000But President Trump has also made clear that he supports regime change from within.
00:07:13.000In an extraordinary, really historic statement, Trump called this morning for the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the Ayatollah's regime, saying, quote,
00:07:24.000Take over your government. I say tonight the hour of your freedom is at hand. Watch.
00:07:29.000Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand.
00:07:37.000Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.
00:07:44.000When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.
00:07:49.000This will be probably your only chance for generations.
00:07:54.000For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it.
00:07:58.000No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight.
00:08:03.000Now you have a president who is giving you what you want.
00:08:09.000America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force.
00:08:14.000Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach.
00:08:23.000This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.
00:08:28.000Again, just historic, remarkable comments there from Trump directly telling the people of Iran to overthrow the regime.
00:08:35.000Now, the prospect of regime change will ultimately come down to how the Iranian people respond to these attacks.
00:08:40.000We've already seen massive historic demonstrations this year against the Ayatollah.
00:08:45.000And the White House is confident that sentiment will only grow as the regime continues to weaken or at least appear more weakened from within.
00:08:52.000To that point, we've already seen a number of videos that reportedly show Iranians celebrating this operation today.
00:08:58.000Here's one, for example, that appears to show students cheering the strikes.
00:09:02.000You can hear some of them yelling, I love Trump.
00:09:06.000For weeks now, Iranian leaders have been taunting the U.S.
00:09:35.000Saying our aircraft carriers and jets, quote, will not do a damn thing.
00:09:40.000And warning that they would send our ships, quote, to the bottom of the ocean.
00:09:44.000Well, President Trump had a warning of his own in a response.
00:09:47.000Have a listen to another clip from that speech.
00:09:57.000President Trump again there saying that the United States will make clear that they are not to be challenged and that the U.S. military is not to be trifled with.
00:10:09.000Now, as more and more Americans wake up to this news, many are likely asking about the timing.
00:10:15.000These strikes come less than 48 hours after a round of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran that the Iranians called productive.
00:10:21.000But clearly the White House was not satisfied with what Iran was bringing to the table.
00:10:26.000For context, since retaking office, President Trump has been adamant that Iran could not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.
00:10:32.000Last year, he made diplomatic efforts to convince the Ayatollah to abandon his pursuit of nukes.
00:10:37.000And then when those talks failed, he launched Operation Midnight Hammer, decimating the country's nuclear program.
00:10:42.000But rather than pull back from their nuclear ambitions, U.S. intelligence says the country only doubled down on their efforts and that it was only a matter of time before they succeeded in producing a nuke.
00:10:53.000The two sides have held numerous rounds of negotiations over the last few months.
00:10:57.000And in the most recent talks, again, less than 48 hours ago in Geneva, White House special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner offered what turned out to be, as we now know, President Trump's final offer.
00:11:07.000It included three main demands. They wanted the regime to completely destroy its three largest nuclear sites.
00:11:13.000They said the Ayatollah must not only cease all nuclear enrichment, but hand over all of its enriched uranium stockpiles to the U.S.
00:11:20.000And finally, Trump demanded that any nuclear deal between the two sides must go on in perpetuity, meaning Iran could never have a nuclear program.
00:11:27.000Now, when the latest rounds of talks ended on Thursday, there were reports that some progress was being made.
00:11:33.000Iranian officials said they would come back next week with a revised offer.
00:11:37.000But there was a growing sense within the White House that the Iranians were simply stringing the U.S. along, sort of biding time so they could bolster their military preparations and race to potentially finish a nuclear weapon.
00:11:49.000And as we've now seen, that led President Trump to take matters into his own hands.
00:11:53.000As you can imagine, responses to the war, both for and against, are flooding in by the minute.
00:11:57.000One of the more critical statements came from Oman's foreign minister.
00:12:01.000He'd been serving as middleman this week in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.
00:12:05.000And just 24 hours ago was on American media saying that progress was being made towards peace.
00:12:10.000He, this morning, published a scathing statement saying, quote, I'm dismayed.
00:12:16.000Active and serious negotiations have yet again been undermined.
00:12:19.000Neither the interests of the U.S. nor the case of global peace are well served by this.
00:12:23.000And I pray for the innocents who will suffer.
00:12:25.000I urge the U.S. not to get sucked in further.
00:12:40.000For his part, France President Emmanuel Macron had a similar warning, saying that the, quote,
00:12:45.000outbreak of war carries serious consequences for international peace and security.
00:12:49.000But elsewhere, American allies praised the operation, even some who have been at odds with Trump lately.
00:12:54.000Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said his country, quote, supports the U.S. acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon
00:13:01.000and to prevent Iran continuing to threaten international peace and security.
00:13:06.000And then in Canada, again, another previous rival of President Trump.
00:13:10.000Prime Minister Mark Carney released a nearly identical statement saying that Canada supports the United States.
00:13:16.000Stateside, we've seen a mixed reaction that, as you can imagine, largely broke along party lines.
00:13:21.000Republicans mostly lauded the strike, commending President Trump for protecting America from Iranian aggression.
00:13:26.000While many Democrats slammed the operation, accusing President Trump of illegally bypassing Congress to launch a war without their approval.
00:13:34.000So the other factor really complicating the situation is concern over how Iran could respond to an attack.
00:13:40.000There have been reports now for months that Iran could use some of their terror proxies in the region.
00:13:46.000Some of the groups that they sponsor to launch asymmetrical attacks on the West.
00:13:51.000And Pentagon officials also have reportedly warned or repeatedly warned to the White House that the regime could direct proxies not just in the Middle East to conduct retaliatory attacks, but also in the United States.
00:14:01.000Remember, the DHS has warned for years that Iranian back sleeper cells could have crossed the border undetected during the Biden administration.
00:14:09.000So again, all that to say, this attack does open up a new set of concerns.
00:14:13.000And let's get into some of those concerns now.
00:14:16.000We have Dan Brouillette, the former Energy Secretary of the United States, joining us now.
00:14:44.000This regime has been devastating to this country over the last 40 plus years.
00:14:49.000And this presents a unique opportunity, as you pointed out in your opening.
00:14:53.000And as the president has said very clearly, to return this country to a democracy and to a freedom loving place, as it has been for most of its history.
00:15:02.000Dan, in your opinion, if the Ayatollah has, in fact, been killed again, that has not been confirmed.
00:15:08.000There is just speculation at this point.
00:15:10.000If that has taken place, what do you think we could see next?
00:15:13.000Well, it's going to be difficult to determine that in the next few days.
00:15:18.000You know, the regime itself has its own succession plan, if you will.
00:15:23.000But it will be up to the people of Iran to determine whether or not that succession succeeds.
00:15:28.000I would suspect that, you know, given the amount of protests, given the amount of events that we've seen on the ground, especially with the younger folks who are leading many of these protests in the streets, I would suspect that that is not going to be acceptable to most of the people of Iran.
00:15:45.000Given what we've seen over the last few months, given what we've seen in the streets, I think there is a real hunger for change.
00:15:51.000And I think we're going to see some new leadership emerge from the people of Iran, not the regime of Iran.
00:15:58.000Having been in the president's cabinet, you understand his negotiating style, his tactics.
00:16:03.000Do you envision a scenario here where President Trump launches a few days worth of strikes and then tells Iran, hey, are you ready to come back to the table now?
00:16:11.000Or do you think it's a situation where he says, you had your chance to negotiate.
00:16:16.000We're going to keep going with this until we say it's done.
00:16:19.000Yeah, I can't speak directly for the president, but he has been very clear about his desire for peace.
00:16:25.000So I think he will give the people of Iran an opportunity to resolve this peacefully.
00:16:30.000So it wouldn't shock me and it wouldn't surprise me that you see some, you know, slowing down of the military activities over the course of the next few hours or days.
00:16:39.000But he is serious about changing this regime.
00:16:42.000And your lead in was, I think, exactly correct.
00:16:46.000We saw this in 2017, 2018 and 2019 when we were dealing with what was then known as the JCPOA, which was the Obama construct for reducing their desire to produce nuclear weapons.
00:17:01.000The tactics used by the regime at that point in time were very similar to what we saw in the last few weeks with Jared and Special Envoy Whitcoff.
00:17:10.000It's delay. It's slowing things down. It's stringing things along to the point where they think that they're going to have some upper hand in the conversation.
00:17:17.000I think that's what angers the president.
00:17:19.000It is what I think drove his decision today to lead to, you know, begin these attacks.
00:17:26.000It's, you know, it's not unusual to see this in the regime. He understands it very, very well.
00:17:32.000But again, as I said earlier, he is very, very interested in seeing peace around the world and particularly in Iran.
00:17:40.000So it won't shock me that he gives them an opportunity to do the right thing, as he pointed out in his comments.
00:17:45.000One of the more fascinating developments this morning has been Saudi Arabia.
00:17:49.000They came out and issued a statement saying that they were frustrated with the, quote, brutal Iranian aggression, the missiles being launched towards their soil.
00:17:57.000They came out in full support of the United States, saying they would join the U.S. effort here.
00:18:02.000What does that say about the region that you have Saudi Arabia now fully on board with the U.S. operations? Speak to that more broadly.
00:18:08.000Yeah, well, I mean, don't don't forget that back, I think it was 2017, 2018.
00:18:13.000I forget the exact time frame, maybe 2019. I don't recall exactly which.
00:18:17.000It was Iran who attacked some of the Saudi infrastructure, some of their oil producing infrastructure, their refining infrastructure as well.
00:18:23.000So there's been a tension there in the region for some time.
00:18:26.000I think Saudi, the Saudi Arabian government, the governments of UAE and others recognize that for many, many years around has been a bad actor in the region,
00:18:36.000has been really a catalyst for much of the tension that we face there today.
00:18:41.000So they're as anxious as anyone to see this regime perhaps go away or at least change its direction.
00:18:48.000The idea of a nuclear-armed Iran is of concern for all of the countries in that region.
00:18:54.000So it doesn't shock me that Saudi Arabia and other governments will join with the U.S. in putting an end to this regime.
00:19:01.000Let's flush that out a bit because you were instrumental in helping to organize the Abraham Accords.
00:19:06.000Do you see this as a potential catalyst for further unifying around the U.S. in the Middle East?
00:19:15.000I think all of the folks, the conversations that we had back in the first Trump term were very, very constructive.
00:19:22.000There is a true desire for peace in the region. A true desire for peace in the region.
00:19:27.000And I think that still extends today. It's still there today and people feel it.
00:19:31.000If you talk to folks on the ground, especially the younger folks, when you talk to them, they want this as badly as anyone else in the world.
00:19:39.000So, yes, I do think it will be, you know, a catalyst, if you will, for perhaps some new conversations that are an extension of the Abraham Accords.
00:19:49.000I do think you will see economic deals come together that will drive a lot of these conversations as well.
00:19:54.000They all understand that this is, you know, important to their economic future as well.
00:19:59.000It's not just a national security question here. It is really about the growing economies.
00:20:05.000If you look at what's happened over the last few years with the production of energy, not just oil and gas, but nuclear power, for instance, in UAE, the development of data centers, the development of AI.
00:20:16.000All of these, all of these opportunities are available to the people of the Middle East as well, and they want to take advantage of them.
00:20:22.000And these are very talented, very capable people. We want them to be a part of that conversation.
00:20:27.000So it's an exciting day in that regard as well.
00:20:30.000What sort of leverage do you think this gives President Trump in his negotiations with other countries?
00:20:35.000When you were in the president's cabinet, were there times where President Trump would maybe exert pressure like this militarily or otherwise on a country, and it made your negotiations with completely other countries easier?
00:20:47.000Oh, yeah, no, look, it does. I'll go back to what I said earlier.
00:20:52.000The president, I think, hesitates at some times. I mean, not in a good way. He doesn't want to do these things. It's not in his nature. It's not, you know, as you saw in his public comments, he wants peace.
00:21:04.000These are very, very difficult decisions. You don't come to this decision on a whim, and you don't do it in a matter of seconds. You do it with a lot of forethought, a lot of information at your disposal.
00:21:16.000And I know he struggled with this decision. I just know that by watching him over the years. But once he makes a decision, he will follow through with it. And that's what you're seeing today.
00:21:28.000Look, what it does to other negotiations, I think it demonstrates clearly to other nations, to other leaders, he means what he says, if he says he's going to do it, he will do it. And, you know, to the extent that people want to pay attention to those words and pay attention and more importantly to those actions, they will treat them accordingly.
00:21:44.000And I think it helps, you know, understand. Once people have a clear idea of who this leader is, of who other leaders are, then we can have more constructive conversations and not just, you know, dance around these important issues as we move forward.
00:21:58.680Final question, then we'll let you go. As former Energy Secretary, you know better than anyone the implications of what this means for Americans when it comes to oil prices, gas prices. Could this have a tangible impact for folks when it comes to the global oil supply?
00:22:14.000Not the global oil supply. So, I mean, what we're going to see and what we have seen today, as a matter of fact, in some of the oil futures pricing is that you'll see a short-term spike.
00:22:22.300You know, what we're talking about here is roughly 3% of the world's supply of oil coming into the marketplace. Iran does roughly 3 million barrels a day.
00:22:29.960We consume or produce roughly 100 million barrels a day. Most of Iran's oil goes to China. So we don't see that in the U.S. anyway.
00:22:38.440But even if it were taken completely off the market, which I don't think it will be, Saudi Arabia has enormous capacity to fill that gap.
00:22:46.400The United States has enormous capacity to fill that gap. So I don't think the long-term effects of this type of action are going to be sustained high oil prices or sustained high gasoline prices over the course of the year.
00:22:59.940I don't see that happening right now. The Strait of Hormuz, obviously, is very, very important. A lot of oil comes through that. I don't think Iran is going to close that. They may threaten it.
00:23:09.620I don't think they're capable of closing it, frankly. The U.S. Navy will ensure that it's open. But it's not in their interest to close it either.
00:23:16.280That 3 million barrels that I talked about earlier is the backbone of their economy. They need that oil to get to China.
00:23:22.120So if they shut down the Strait, they're cutting off their nose to spite their face.
00:23:26.000All right. Thank you so much, Dan Briette, former Energy Secretary, expert on all things Middle East as well.
00:23:31.520Thank you so much for your time. Really appreciate you making it in.
00:24:21.700The Iranian government had multiple opportunities, multiple off-ramps to avoid this.
00:24:27.500President Trump gave them 60 days last year to negotiate a deal.
00:24:31.280They played for time, tried to manipulate the talks like they've done with numerous Republican and Democratic presidents.
00:24:36.900But this president is different. When he sets an ultimatum, he means it.
00:24:40.640He said in May he wanted peace through strength and commerce with Iran, with China, with Russia, with North Korea.
00:24:48.400The Iranians ignored him. And then the ceasefire last June that Trump negotiated, the Israelis did not want to agree to that.
00:24:55.500They wanted to keep attacking Iran. But Trump gave Iran an opportunity then.
00:25:00.180What did it do? It proceeded throughout the summer, throughout the beginning of this year, to rebuild its nuclear program, to rebuild its missiles.
00:25:07.460Then he started talks again this year. The Iranians also tried to manipulate them.
00:25:12.140So critics of this attack on the right and left should realize military force was not President Trump's first choice.
00:25:18.800And when other states try to game us, when they ignore ultimatums, and if we go along with that, we undermine American credibility on the world stage.
00:25:28.460In your view, what was the red line here? Was it the protesters who were being killed? Was it the continued stalling that we saw during these negotiations?
00:25:37.260Do you think there was a singular moment that ultimately forced President Trump's hand here?
00:25:41.840I mean, obviously, the world was appalled when tens of thousands of Iranians were killed by the Iranian regime.
00:25:48.640And many, many more were maimed. You know, Iranian security forces were shooting at protesters in the eyes to blind them.
00:25:55.560It was appalling. And the crackdown has continued since that time.
00:26:00.300I think the president was really outraged by that. He wanted that to stop.
00:26:04.060But just as important, and this may have happened over the last 10 days,
00:26:07.140I think there's been very compelling intelligence on how Iran is rushing to rebuild its nuclear missile program.
00:26:14.520They may be building 100 missiles a month, and eventually they would have an arsenal so large,
00:26:19.840they would be able to overwhelm Israeli air defenses.
00:26:22.780Now, Democrats in Congress have already been out in force this morning saying that President Trump acted unconstitutionally,
00:26:31.520What's your response to those Democrats who are saying that President Trump illegally bypassed them?
00:26:37.100Well, let's first give credit to Senator Fetterman, who strongly supported this.
00:26:41.160We used to have bipartisan politics like that, that politics ended at water's edge.
00:26:47.360And I hope we have more Democrats who take a principled position like that.
00:26:50.760I don't think we will because of Trump derangement syndrome.
00:26:53.520The American people will decide. Do they think this attack was a good idea?
00:26:57.680Do they think it was a good idea to get rid of a regime that has been really at war with us for 47 years,
00:27:03.440as the president said yesterday before he left the White House, as he said in his statement this morning?
00:27:08.480So how do you see this playing out? The White House is giving hints that it could be days, even weeks.
00:27:15.480If you had to guess, with what you know of President Trump, having worked so closely with him over the years,
00:27:20.260how long of a timeline do you see for this attack?
00:27:23.340I think we probably could see a couple of weeks.
00:27:26.640I think there will be additional phases of this attack that we can't see right now because the initial phases were to take out missile defenses,
00:27:34.760missile launchers, and prepare for, I think, broader attacks to undermine the W&D programs and security forces that were being used to put down the Iranian people.
00:27:45.240Thankfully, to this point, reports are that there have been no American casualties.
00:27:50.680But I am interested. President Trump has been adamant that he does not want boots on the ground in the Middle East,
00:27:55.620that he does not want that for this situation.
00:27:57.680If there is a situation, God forbid, where a missile gets through to a U.S. base and kills a dozen U.S. service members,
00:28:05.400is there a way to avoid boots on the ground?
00:28:07.820Well, let's point out that our bases are at greater risk than Israel because most of Iran's remaining missiles are short-range missiles.
00:28:16.760Iran shot most of its long-range missiles or had them destroyed last June.
00:28:20.860That's why we're just seeing dozens being fired at Israel right now.
00:28:23.960But Iran may have maybe 800 to 1,000 short-range missiles.
00:28:29.780I'm sure there are very, very aggressive efforts right now to protect American assets and American personalities' bases.
00:28:36.940But frankly, by firing at these Gulf states, Iran is making this conflict worse for themselves.
00:28:44.500I think the Saudis may join us in attacking Iran right now because Iran attacked Saudi territory.
00:28:50.160You know, we did see that statement from Saudi Arabia offering at least verbal support for the U.S.
00:28:54.780The big question, as you mentioned, is whether that will lead to military support as well.
00:28:58.780So I'm interested in the political angle here.
00:29:00.980We have seen some on the right criticize President Trump, saying that he campaigned as the president who would avoid foreign entanglements, avoid foreign wars.
00:29:10.120There has been some pushback on the right, to be fair, saying this isn't what I voted for.
00:29:14.980What is your message to people who are frustrated with this operation?
00:29:18.520That's why I started my remarks to say that Trump did not want to use military force, that he gave the Iranian government every opportunity to take an off-ramp, to live in peace with the U.S.
00:29:30.720And there's critics of this operation, conservatives, who watch this program, who aren't going to agree with it.
00:29:37.380And I didn't want to see military action taken against Iran, unless absolutely necessary.
00:29:42.420But the president gave them multiple opportunities for an agreement to stop the threat to the region and to live in peace with us and with our allies.
00:29:50.580The Iranian government did not want to do that.
00:29:53.020This is a government that is determined to destroy the state of Israel and build nuclear weapons.
00:29:57.360And President Trump correctly decided that is unacceptable.
00:32:28.980I think this could be a low-key regime change here if, in fact, the reports that I'm hearing from Israel and that Fox News and some of my other friends at Fox are putting out, major military IRGC leadership, including the Ayatollah, may, in fact, have been eliminated.
00:32:47.040And so it's the senior leadership for the IRGC have always been within strike scope.
00:32:56.440So that pressure at the highest level of the regime and taking out those leaders is what matters the most.
00:33:06.060So for decades, you know, the leadership of Iran believed they were insulated and that they could, you know, keep projecting that power through the proxies, attacking Israel, attacking the U.S., the military bases, the missiles, the enrichment they kept pushing.
00:33:22.420This is all coming from the top of the leadership.
00:33:25.260And if, in fact, it's true and the leadership was taken out, it's no more attacking the middle.
00:33:30.020It's no more attacking the knees, so, you know, no more degrading the capability to slow them down, which is what the prior administrations have been doing for decades, last almost 40 years.
00:33:42.040And so once that leadership gets hit, that deterrence equation changes.
00:33:49.040So this is a pretty big shift that we're seeing here right now.
00:33:52.900And as more of this information gets confirmed and the top-tier regime target packages are confirmed, then it's really going to change the whole puzzle for the Middle East.
00:34:05.200One thing that really struck me as this news started to break was that the United States appeared to be striking military sites, nuclear locations, naval bases, things of that nature, while the Israelis were primarily striking individuals, going after the regime, going after top generals.
00:34:36.960They're going to be able to move quickly in certain directions.
00:34:40.000I can tell you that from my sources in Israel over the last several months, the U.S. Special Operations Command, specifically in the Middle East, has been entrenched inside of Israel, helping with the Gaza situation to put together what that plan is going to be moving forward, you know, post-Hamas.
00:34:57.700So there's been a lot of coordinating with assets, both special operations assets and Air Force assets.
00:36:43.720When you target the leadership, you make it very difficult for these nodes to be able to continue any term,
00:36:52.880any type of really long term sustainment against whether it's Israel, the United States nodes in the region.
00:37:01.380So, again, I'm going to go back to the disruption here.
00:37:06.480And again, when the U.S. hits, it hits very, very hard.
00:37:10.400I was just talking about this on Fox last night with Trace.
00:37:12.740You know, after what President Trump did to Maduro, grabbing him and the audacity of that operation,
00:37:19.780the fact that Trump allowed and sanctioned an operation to target the Ayatollah will diametrically create a paradigm shift for the whole region.
00:37:32.900All of the Arab states will then start getting on board, which we're already seeing right now.
00:37:36.920Bahrain, Saudi, they're all they're all speaking down to the Ayatollah because they've been the gravity.
00:37:45.720The Islamic regime regime has been the gravity of all of the terrorism in the region.
00:37:51.120And so if this guy these guys are gone, it's going to make it very difficult to continue any kind of long term sustained operations against U.S. nodes and obviously against Israel.
00:38:01.980So obviously there's going to be pockets.
00:38:04.920But without central organization, remember, the Iranians fed Hamas, the Iranians feed all of that terror activity in the region.
00:38:14.920The moment you take out the IRGC consolidation of power, the retaliation has become a lot more complicated.
00:38:22.900So I don't think this is going to turn into an Iraq 2.0 for any of the haters that are going to be out there going, oh, my God, we're going to get dragged into another war.
00:38:53.480I think that they learned that the Iranians have a very soft white underbelly.
00:38:59.880And that they rule with fear and that they rule with the idea of a nuclear weapon, which is why Trump went in there with Israel, its most powerful best friend.
00:39:12.020These two as a team went in there and targeted the leadership.
00:39:15.780They probably softened up and hit the remnants of whatever nuclear capabilities the Iranian had left after that Fordow strike.
00:39:25.280So I think at this point right now, the lessons are these guys can talk and bark, but nobody understands big picture signaling better than President Trump.
00:39:41.500But I'm not the guy to get political, but I will tell you, we have an old expression, which is you have to speak the language of the Middle East.
00:39:53.040And when you take down the kingpin of the entire fulcrum of terrorism, the center of it, which has been pushing for 40 years, terrorism against the Americans, going back to the Marine barracks back in the 80s, feeding the Houthis, feeding Boko Haram, pushing ideology, feeding Hamas.
00:40:14.400When you take out that leadership, the lesson is clear, Trump will signal and be bigger than all of these terror leaders.
00:40:24.780And he's not afraid to take the full backing of the American might and push those push those aircraft carriers into the region, sprinkle in some of that incredible Israeli intelligence.
00:40:36.540And now you've got yourself a down regime. So, again, let's see what happens here.
00:40:41.560But this is a very historical shift in the region, which could bring quiet, not the opposite.
00:40:57.380Again, for those just now tuning in, breaking news coming out of Iran.
00:41:01.640The United States and Israel launching a series of airstrikes targeting Iranian facilities.
00:41:06.540At the moment, it appears that the United States has been targeting nuclear sites, looking to decimate the nuclear facilities that the Iranians were trying to rebuild after Operation Midnight Hammer.
00:41:17.920On the Israeli side, they have been targeting Iranian leadership going after the Ayatollah, senior members of the IRGC, senior members of the parliament.
00:41:27.660And we're still waiting for details on how many of those individuals have been killed.
00:41:33.600But we know that President Trump and Israel were looking for a decapitation strike where they would take out as many of the senior leaders as possible to create chaos.
00:41:41.440President Trump came out in an address overnight saying that he wanted the people in Iran to engage in regime change, telling them that it was their time for freedom.
00:41:52.220And he was openly encouraging them to essentially go out and force the regime from power and to take out the Ayatollah if Israel has not already done it themselves, if the U.S. has not already done it themselves.
00:42:04.420So we're going to get now to Jason Brodsky.
00:42:06.340He's the policy director at United Against a Nuclear Iran.
00:42:47.920It has blown the faces, arms, and legs off of Americans.
00:42:51.860And this regime can't get a nuclear weapon.
00:42:54.300And President Trump has, in his own actions, demonstrated that to him, a deadline is a deadline, and U.S. red lines are red lines.
00:43:03.760And the Iranian regime is really not used to operating and dealing with a president who follows through on his threats and holds the regime accountable militarily.
00:43:12.360So I think the big question for a lot of Americans waking up to this news this morning is why?
00:44:02.580Second is the Iranian regime has been perfecting its capability and ability to construct intercontinental ballistic missile through the setup of what's called a satellite launch vehicle program.
00:44:16.480It's been using the program to create that ICBM development capability.
00:44:22.040It uses technologies that are directly applicable to the development of an ICBM that could reach the United States.
00:44:28.800And the Defense Intelligence Agency has assessed that by 2035, Iran could start producing those ICBMs that could threaten the United States.
00:44:38.680So it's important that we nip these threats in the bud.
00:44:42.600A diplomacy with the Iranian regime, which President Trump has tried repeatedly, has failed.
00:44:50.300The reality is, is that there is no durable diplomatic solution to the Iranian challenge as long as this regime is in power.
00:44:58.180And I think President Trump acted as a result of that to advance U.S. interests, because it is in the U.S. interests that the Iranian regime be gone.
00:46:22.420We pray for every service member as they selflessly risk their lives to ensure that Americans and our children will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran.
00:46:33.180We ask God to protect all of our heroes in harm's way.
00:46:37.420And we trust that, with his help, the men and women of the armed forces will prevail.
00:47:12.460I mean, it's about what you would expect down here in our nation's capital, which is to say that Republicans are mostly marching in lockstep with the president, with the exception of Thomas Massey and a couple of other former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, some other real MAGA isolationist diehards.
00:47:27.020And Democrats are largely breaking against the president, with the exception of Senator John Fetterman from Pennsylvania, who has sort of emerged, as we know, as a pretty erstwhile ally of Israel and of this administration when it comes to Israel in the Middle East.
00:47:40.940So I think one of the big things, though, and you mentioned the fact that there were no casualties, one of the main narratives that we're hearing from mostly the opponents, the Democrats and those handful of Republicans, is, you know, the president ran on keeping us out of ending forever wars, keeping us out of wars.
00:47:55.360They're saying, you know, no more Iraq.
00:47:57.600We don't want to go back to the global war on terror.
00:47:59.660And what I think what people are missing is that this president does not plan on this being a long engagement.
00:48:04.940He made it very clear in that early morning surprise speech, right?
00:48:08.140He said to the Iranian people, he addressed them directly.
00:48:11.000He said, once we go in and clear out the Ayatollah and the regime, I urge you to take over the government.
00:48:21.780It would have been absolutely unconscionable a couple of months ago to think that we could go in, take a foreign leader, bring him out and be done and dusted in a matter of, you know, nine hours.
00:48:46.860President Trump, they're talking about the risk to American service members.
00:48:51.220If there are service members killed, how far do you think the U.S. should be willing to go to ensure that Iran does not have a nuclear program?
00:48:59.060Do you think that boots on the ground could ever be a necessary proposition here?
00:49:05.280I don't foresee President Trump putting boots on the ground in Iran.
00:49:09.940He is demonstrating that this is an air power war.
00:49:13.820It is quite different from what happened with Iraq and Afghanistan.
00:49:17.060It's a very different model, as you just heard before.
00:49:21.200And so I think that this is also not just about the nuclear program.
00:49:26.520It's about the Iranian leadership, which is a lethal threat to the United States.
00:49:31.480And so it's a much broader mission here.
00:49:34.760And the idea is to create the conditions which collapse the Iranian regime and allow the Iranian people to reclaim their country.
00:49:44.180And it basically provides the time and the space and evens the playing field between the Iranian people who have been largely unarmed and the regime, which is very armed.
00:49:55.860And so that's the model here that I think the Trump administration is pursuing.
00:50:02.240And that's how it differentiates from the other conflicts that you just cited.
00:50:07.900And also, I think the president, as he stated in his remarks, he acknowledges that there is a risk of U.S. casualties.
00:50:13.380And he definitely demonstrates that there is that acknowledgement.
00:50:17.940But the Iranian regime, what they're going to try to do in response is to try to increase the political, economic and military costs for the United States in any way they can to try to cut this operation short and to put pressure on the president to basically withdraw and cease the operation.
00:50:39.780And so that's the Islamic Republic's calculation and strategy.
00:50:42.640It's one of asymmetric endurance against a power like the United States, which has a much larger and sophisticated and more formidable conventional military.
00:50:52.980Tim, I want to get back to the pushback from Democrats on Capitol Hill.
00:50:58.580They are very upset about this operation.
00:51:02.140But how much power do they actually have?
00:51:03.900What could they actually do from a congressional standpoint to try and prevent President Trump from taking action?
00:51:20.040Tim Kaine has been one of the leading voices on the Hill for about a decade now, maybe more than a decade, trying to repeal the sort of unlimited authorized use of military force, the AUMF, that Congress passed in the wake of 9-11.
00:51:33.020At the onset of the war on terror, which essentially codifies and allows the executive branch to launch actions like this without getting congressional approval.
00:51:41.700Right. So it says that the White House has to brief the Gang of Eight, which is Senate and House majority and minority leaders and the ranking members and committee chairs of the intelligence and oversight committees in the House and the Senate, which they did.
00:51:53.940Marco Rubio did that before the attacks this morning.
00:51:55.980But because this law is still on the books, this now 20-some-odd-year-old law, Congress really, you know, they have oversight.
00:52:04.200They still technically have the power to declare war.
00:52:06.980But short of actually declaring war, there's not much they can do.
00:52:55.700So I do think, you know, not really entirely a criticism.
00:52:58.280I think the best thing that Congress can do right now is just voice their opinions, whether it's pro or anti.
00:53:04.000So I'm interested, Tim, also on the political angle here.
00:53:07.140If you look at polling data this week leading up to this strike, Americans were quite split on whether they supported an attack.
00:53:13.520It was largely split along party lines, but the majority of Americans, for the most part, were not supportive of the idea of going in and taking a preemptive strike.
00:53:21.920Do you think President Trump really cares?
00:53:23.720We know on the campaign trail he cares a lot about polling data.
00:53:26.900But do you think he actually cares that much if the American people are not super on board?
00:53:31.000Do you think he's confident they'll get on board as they understand and see the results?
00:53:35.240Walk us through that political angle here.
00:53:36.940Yeah, it's another great question, especially because, of course, we're staring down the barrel of the midterm elections.
00:53:43.780We already have this week pretty contentious Republican primaries going off in Texas, some special elections that are going to happen even before November.
00:53:51.360I think to say that the president doesn't care is almost right.
00:53:55.480I think that what we see here, and to your point, I think, yes, I'm sure that President Trump is a confident man, right?
00:54:01.020And we always say he is a salesman first and foremost.
00:54:03.540So this president is convinced that he can sell the American people on anything.
00:54:06.660But I think more than that, what you saw this morning is the president really acting as commander-in-chief.
00:54:11.880Of course, the American people don't want a war.
00:54:13.760The American people are rarely going to want a war, right?
00:54:15.980I mean, even when it's, you know, after the attack on Pearl Harbor, you know, I don't know.
00:54:19.840Let's look at the polling numbers after that.
00:54:21.660I'm sure most Americans still didn't want to go to war.
00:54:24.220They don't want to see an entanglement.
00:54:25.920But sometimes, as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and as the leader of this country,
00:54:30.300the president of the United States is going to have to make a decision that is in the best interest of both the country,
00:54:34.980its national security, and to a certain extent, our allies around the world.
00:54:38.400Because whether we like it or not, we do remain the world's policemen.
00:54:41.120So I think that whether or not the American people do come around to it,
00:54:44.820the president is doing what I think he thinks he needs to do.
00:57:19.620Now, the issue here is that the Iran operation is not going to take 88 minutes.
00:57:26.120I think if you polled Americans and you said, do you support a strike with Iran if it will go as quickly as the strike in Venezuela and be resolved as simply?
00:57:34.800Probably 80, 90 percent would say, yeah, sounds good.
00:57:50.520And there, I don't think Americans really support the war.
00:57:54.100If you look at the national polls, majority of Americans did not support a strike on Iran.
00:57:59.520When you focus specifically on Republicans, it's a little less clear.
00:58:03.160You know, there's more support, but it's still in many polls less than 50 percent.
00:58:08.000Now, just because the people ask for something or, you know, voice their opinion for something doesn't mean that that's necessarily the right policy.
00:58:14.260But we have to ask ourselves, what is the goal here in the Iran strike?
00:58:19.040President Trump tells us the goal is regime change.
00:58:21.740The justification for war is that Iran is building a weapon of mass destruction.
00:58:26.420And the further defense of the war is that the Iranian people want freedom.
00:59:40.280You could see American service members killed.
00:59:43.040This could be a very, very difficult situation for the White House.
00:59:48.400If this goes south, President Trump is risking not only his foreign policy credibility, but perhaps his whole presidential legacy in precisely the way George W. Bush did.
00:59:58.540However, if this works, if the United States ousts the Ayatollah, who has been an enemy of the United States since the regime took power in 1979, if the United States succeeds in regime change in Iran and helps to bring about a more pro-Western and more popular regime there, this will be the greatest foreign policy accomplishment of any president in our lifetime since the end of the Cold War.
01:00:23.720So all of that to say, we don't know what's going to happen.
01:00:28.440And anyone who tells you what's going to happen tomorrow or the day after in a war is lying to you or ignorant.
01:00:33.640However, the one thing we know with certainty is the stakes could not possibly be higher for the White House.
01:00:40.740One thing I do want to point out, Iran's minister of foreign affairs recently gave an interview on NBC, I believe it was.
01:00:50.260He is claiming that to his knowledge, the Ayatollah is still alive.
01:00:54.980Again, like you said, there's a lot of propaganda going around, but that is the first claim we've seen from the Iranian government that he's alive.
01:01:00.660But still waiting for confirmation there from other sources.
01:01:05.340So, Michael, bringing it back to the political angle, I'm interested in your take on what this means for who has the most sway within the White House.
01:01:14.460It's no secret that Secretary of State Marco Rubio definitely has taken a more hawkish approach.
01:01:20.740We know Vice President J.D. Vance, more of the dovish approach.
01:01:24.480Does this give insight into who is winning that power struggle when it comes to having the president here?
01:01:29.440Well, you know, even that characterization, I wonder if that is part of the information warfare and propaganda here.
01:01:37.440Because, you know, we constantly hear from the media, not only on the left, but even sometimes on the right, that there's this war in the White House between, I don't know, Vance and Rubio or this department and that department.
01:01:49.460And yet, whenever we see them actually speak for themselves, there's remarkable unity.
01:01:54.740I've never seen a White House more unified in my life.
01:01:57.880You know, you have Vance and Rubio seem to get along like best buddies and then President Trump effectively endorses Vance as his successor and calls for Rubio to join Vance as a ticket.
01:02:08.980So, I don't really buy this idea that the White House is totally divided at all.
01:02:13.900You also had the vice president come out a few days ago and affirm the line that we've heard from other parts of the White House, which is that the Iranian regime, we have evidence that the Iranian regime is actively pursuing nuclear weapons.
01:02:28.260I think that a lot of people are already in the horse race for 2028 and they're trying to project their own desires onto the White House looking ahead at the presidential election.
01:02:39.680I see a lot of unity in the White House on this point.
01:02:42.680And frankly, I see a lot of unity in the Republican Party on this point.
01:02:45.940Of course, the Republicans would love to get rid of the Iranian regime if we can do so at a low cost.
01:02:53.920However, the question really seems to be less about ideology or even geopolitical goals than it is about feasibility.
01:03:02.100You know, are people really confident in the ability of Riza Pahlavi, the crown prince, to just come in, bring stability to Iran?
01:03:10.840Do they really believe that, you know, a strike in a day or two days can take out the Iranian regime?
01:03:16.940Is that really feasible in the way that it was feasible to extract Maduro from Venezuela?
01:03:22.780I saw some, again, I'm breaking my own advice by believing what I'm reading on Twitter.
01:03:28.140But it does seem that the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has been killed.
01:03:33.520I don't know if that's actually been confirmed.
01:03:35.520That was going around some of the reporting.
01:03:37.360Yeah, it seems that the Ayatollah is still alive for now.
01:03:41.820Seems that the president is still alive for now.
01:03:44.880And so in that case, if the strike did not actually behead the Iranian regime, that would be a setback for the operation.
01:03:52.200And that would seem to explain why the operation is going to go on for several more days.
01:03:55.920Now that we're already in it, it would seem to require us actually to change the regime in Iran.
01:04:03.040Because if the Ayatollah remains in power, that's a major embarrassment for Israel and for the United States.
01:04:09.760And then, of course, if this drags on not just days but weeks or longer, then you're in a situation where we might need formal declarations of war.
01:04:19.500Congress is going to get involved already.
01:04:21.440You have Tim Kaine who was the vice presidential nominee under Hillary Clinton.
01:04:25.420Most people have already forgotten that.
01:04:27.180Tim Kaine is already coming out and calling this a stupid, terrible military operation.
01:04:31.180By Monday, you're going to have half of Washington, D.C. calling for President Trump to be impeached over this.
01:04:36.340So the domestic political fight is going to be very, very lively.
01:04:40.580I don't think it's going to be a domestic fight within the White House.
01:04:43.460I think it's going to be the Democrats seizing, even if the Democrats might have supported a strike on Iran in principle, just like you saw in Iraq in the mid-2000s.
01:04:54.320You're going to get many Democrats who are totally open to this strike opportunistically seizing on it to attack the Republican president.
01:05:03.400I want to bring in now, though, Morgan Murphy, the former Pentagon press secretary and former senior advisor to Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.
01:06:41.460Morgan, what do you make of the timing here?
01:06:42.880Why do you think the president chose today to make this statement?
01:06:48.120Well, I think that the daylight attack is daring.
01:06:51.680It's out of our typical pattern of operations.
01:06:55.940And that's what you want to do in the military.
01:06:57.860You know, everybody today in Washington is an armchair national security advisor.
01:07:03.280But when you look at the unpredictable way Pete Hegg says Department of War is operating,
01:07:12.060they really are not playing by America's typical playbook of how we conduct an operation.
01:07:19.600So we attacked Venezuela in the dead of night.
01:07:23.460We reduced all the Chinese anti-air hardware to looking like it was purchased off a Timu.
01:07:30.200And, you know, here we are just flying in broad daylight into Iran.
01:07:35.420It's really breathtaking in its scope of operation.
01:07:40.080What do you make of the likelihood that there will be a relatively seamless transition of regime?
01:07:47.940You know, Cabot and I were just discussing, I think if Americans were confident that this operation would go down in 88 minutes like Venezuela,
01:07:55.300you'd have practically 100% support for it.
01:07:57.960But there's this fear that Iran is a little bit more of a stable country.
01:08:01.720The mullahs have ruled for a really long time, you know, almost five decades now.
01:08:06.280They might have contingency operations.
01:08:07.740So what are the odds that you could see someone like Reza Pallavi come in and take control and unify the country
01:08:14.560versus civil breakdown and potentially even civil war?
01:08:20.180Reza Pallavi is interesting and has been in preparation for this moment for a long time.
01:08:27.760I read his statement this morning with interest.
01:08:30.120I've been following him pretty closely here for the past three months.
01:08:34.180And he's very measured, very diplomatic.
01:08:37.140I think he's following in the King of Jordan's footsteps and he's calling now for action on behalf of the people of Iran.
01:08:47.960And if they follow that, then I think he has a legitimate claim to shepherd in democracy or some other form of government in Iran.
01:08:57.800I don't think that's the administration's stated goal here.
01:09:02.540Trump is very transactional, very pragmatic.
01:09:05.440He wants what's best for the American people.
01:09:07.840He's probably going to leave it to the Iranian people.
01:09:10.180I can't speak for the administration, but I imagine he's going to leave it to the Iranian people to decide what kind of government they want.
01:09:15.980He just doesn't want a government that's diametrically opposed to the United States, threatening our assets, threatening our allies, and aiding and abetting China.
01:09:24.300Michael, I want to get your reaction to some of the condemnation coming from Capitol Hill.
01:09:31.540Democrats in the Senate, for example, Mark Warner, saying that the U.S. was poised to, quote,
01:09:35.980repeat mistakes of the past, invoking the Iraq war.
01:09:41.620The American people have seen this playbook before.
01:09:43.560Claims of urgency, misrepresented intelligence, military action that pulls the U.S. into regime change.
01:09:49.320Ed Markey from Massachusetts saying it's illegal and unconstitutional.
01:09:54.100Other members going on, Tim Kaine, Adam Schiff, saying a diplomatic solution remained the best way to end this crisis, slamming President Trump.
01:10:05.860Well, the problem, we can take it in reverse order.
01:10:08.360The problem with the argument that we were just this close to diplomacy is President Trump has been trying diplomacy for his entire first year, not to mention the first term, not to mention the United States has been trying diplomacy since 1979.
01:10:56.880You know, what we're talking about here is a preemptive war based on the threat of weapons of mass destruction and with a further justification that the people of the country want freedom.
01:11:08.940That is almost precisely the justification for war in Iraq.
01:11:14.120And so you're seeing a shift here in President Trump's criticism of George W. Bush.
01:11:20.440You're seeing a shift in what it means for President Trump to be the foil to George Bush.
01:11:24.900Initially, he was running against dumb wars, you know, against pursuing, say, the strategy of George W. Bush.
01:11:33.080What's interesting about the strike on Iran, it seems to me, is that President Trump is saying that the strategy of George Bush is not necessarily all that bad.
01:11:42.320It's the tactics of George Bush that didn't work.
01:11:44.720In other words, Bush had it right in principle.
01:11:46.980He just totally bungled it during the Iraq war.
01:11:49.500And some people are going to be skeptical of that.
01:11:51.680The point that I keep coming back to, though, is that President Trump has an exceptional record on foreign policy.
01:11:57.480He's got the best record on FOPO probably in my lifetime.
01:12:00.920And so if anybody has the credibility to make that kind of a claim, it's him.
01:12:05.060But that said, the Democrats' attacks are going to keep on coming because the echoes from Iraq are manifest.
01:12:10.860I have one more question for Morgan before we let you go, Morgan.
01:12:14.720What does this mean for China specifically?
01:12:18.200I know there had been concerns that the U.S. could potentially deplete some of its stockpiles,
01:12:22.760and that could give China maybe more of an incentive to make a move on Taiwan.
01:12:27.400Do you think that this changed anything for Xi and his calculus?